Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Mexico Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
Subscribe to Links and Locks podcast here: www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/links-locks
00:00 – Introduction
00:33 – bet365 Promo
01:31 – Thomas Detry
03:27 – Taylor Pendrith
04:26 – Mark Hubbard
05:40 – Davis Thompson
06:55 – Michael Kim
08:04 – Sam Stevens
09:20 – Austin Eckroat
10:18 – Vincent Norrman
11:20 – Maverick McNealy
12:06 – Jhonattan Vegas
13:22 – Aaron Baddeley
14:24 – Carson Young
15:38 – Chesson Hadley
16:54 – Justin Lower
18:00 – Nicolai Højgaard
19:26 – Andrew Novak
20:44 – Emiliano Grillo
22:00 – Doug Ghim
23:12 – bet365 Promo
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#AuthorTonySartori #BlueWireVideo
Welcome to links and locks Action Network golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your new host Andy laack and starting last week I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartori for these Best Bets episodes and just like Jason and Ben have done the last couple of years Tony and I will
Play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the Mexico Championship from Vidant viarta before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than
With anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check
Out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at at 365 must be 21 or older and present in arizota Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions
Apply okay Tony we’re on the first te here for our Mexico Championship best bet get us started all right let’s do it so we got a very watered down field this week especially with zot Tores with drawing um but so what that means it’s very likely that we get a breakout
Performance from someone who hasn’t won on tour yet and that brings me to Thomas dietre a lot of guys a lot of gamblers have been waiting for him to break out uh since he came over from uh the DP World Tour and I think this could be the
Week where he finally does it against this pretty weak field so he’s in good form he’s got two top 20 finishes over his past three tournaments including his fourth place finish at Pebble Beach and at Pebble that was a tournament where the field is way more difficult than
What he’s going to face this week um so we got pass palum greens this week um dri has three straight top 20 finishes on tournaments that are contested on pass palum greens and finally what’s most important to me when handicapping this term is putting because if you look
At last year six of the top 10 six of the top seven finishers here last year ranked ninth or higher among the field in Strokes gain putting that was the only statistic that was even close to that sort of like the top guys finished top in that metric um and so that brings
Me back to drie who’s 13th on tour in Strokes gain putting this year and yes it’s a smaller sample size he was 50th last year um in I think 40 44 measured rounds so a little bit of bigger sample size last year but still well above the
Tour average in Strokes gain putting and then finally the main range of approach distances at this course is 175 to 200 yards about 23 4% of approach shots at this course are from that range of distance and uh dri has been above tour when you look at this year and last year
Combined he’s above the tour average in Greens in regulation percentage from that 175 to 200 yard distance so there’s so much like about D3 this week I think this is finally week where he breaks through and I like him at 28 to one at bet
365 love that I’m gonna go with a uh another long hitter in that same range of the odds board I’m looking at T pendrith plus 2800 enhanced win on bet 365 pendrith is one of the most powerful drivers of the ball in this field he ranks eighth in carry distance 13th in
Driving distance 10th off the T on driver heavy courses with a low Miss Fairway penalty you mentioned the middle to Long iron play he ranks third in proximity 175 to 200 yards 24th in Fairway proximity 200 yards plus he’s a great putter on slow greens uh he raises his Baseline significantly on slow
Greens he’s coming off a ninth at Tory Pines another very driver heavy Golf Course where he gained Strokes in all four major categories uh I think this is the week where we’re ready to see a pendrith breakout and I thought 28 to1 enhance was a very fair number absolutely so I’m gonna Target
Another outright winner that’s a little bit lower on the odds board um 50 to one and Mark hubard so he actually I talked about earlier how D Tre finished fourth at Pebble he was tied with hubard for fourth at Pebble again much tougher competition than what these guys are
Going to face this week and then another thing reason why I love hubber is he finished tied for 18th at the Mexico open last year and the Mexico open has only been a two sanction event for two years right they’ve only been here for two years there’s going to be so many
Especially with how many like young guys are in this field there’s going to be so many guys that have never played here that’s be such an advantage for hover to not only have played here at least once but to have success here with that 18th play finish last year um and then
Finally again I’m going back to the putting hubber is 41st on the tour in stres game putting so far this year and like yeah you you like hear 41st and you’re like well how impressive is that you gota realize that that in this field 41st is about like the 10th best putter
In the field out of this field so he’s up there in putting and then finally like d Tre and like you were saying um with pendri he’s good with the Midel on irons he’s above two or average when you combine this year and last year’s greens and regulation percentage from 175 to
200 yards so at 50 to1 I think that’s a good number to Target hubard at uh to finally get that win I’m going to stick in the outright Market as well and stick around this range of the odds board too I’m going to go with Davis Thompson uh
38 to1 enhance win on bet 365 he is another guy that is really powerful driver of the ball off the T he wanks third in this field and strokes gain off the te on wide openen driver heavy courses with a low Miss Fairway penalty that was one of the the big
Things that I was looking at this week from a statistical perspective who are the guys that gain the most Strokes off the te on these driver heavy golf courses with wide Fairways where there’s not a huge penalty for missing and you can kind of spray it a little bit Davis
Thompson ranks third in this entire field in Strokes getting off the te in those conditions he is a great overall iron player as well ranking 11th and overall approach play 12th in Fairway proximity 200 yards plus and he’s coming off a 15th Place finix at the Phoenix
Open where he gained 4.2 Strokes on approach despite getting the wrong side of a three-stroke weather Advantage uh so I think Davis Thompson is going to make some serious noise this week in Mexico I love that bu spot especially with you said how he got kind of screwed
By the weather but um so I’m gonna go into the finishing positions market and I’m going to Target Michael cim so this a bit of a dart throw he’s 12 to one to finish top five right but the reason I like this Dart throw more than probably
Any of the other Dart throws I’m going to throw out for the rest of this podcast is because when Kim’s off he’s going to miss the cut right but when he’s on he can he flirts with winning so like we saw that he finished sixth at the American Express and he finished
Fifth at last year’s Windom championship and honestly like that that performance at the Windom last year kind of like turned his game I don’t know if it was psychological or not but it turned his game around he’s only missed one cut since then he’s had multiple great finishes and then also last year
Finished fifth at the 20 at the sorry in 2023 he finished fifth at the Puerto Rico open and I mentioned that because that was also contested on P palum greens so like he’s proven that he can finish top five at a venue that has contested on these types of greens he’s
Above average um in stres game putting is above average in greens and regulation percentage from 175 to 200 so again he just kind of checks all the boxes I want to see for Michael Kim to at least you know throw a dart at 12 to1
To finish in the top five love that I’m uh heavily considering Michael Kim myself this week in a lot of markets I’m going to stick with one more outright a real bomb here um I’m going to go with Sam Stevens 100 to one enhance win on bet 365 uh Stevens fits that Taylor
Pendrith Davis Thompson profile that I’m looking for in terms of power off the T he ranks 18th in carry distance fifth in driving distance he is a great long iron player as well ranking top 25 in both proximity once 75 to 200 and proximity 200 yards plus it’s one of the biggest
Razors of his Baseline on slower greens as well ranking top 15 in this field on slow greens six in Strokes gain total imposs pum he also has a third place finish at the corales punana Resort and Club Championship that is another Resort tropical pass palum wide open driver
Heavy easy golf course if he can do it at corales I strongly believe that he can do it here at 100 to one uh definitely my favorite triple digit betat in this entire field to win so I think worth worth a Sprinkle this week on Sam Stevens I like it Stevens was
Actually like my last cut when I was getting down to our n bets he was my last cut to not make the nine but um I’m glad you brought the corales pakana championship because that’s goingon to bring me to Austin eot so his top 20
Market is plus two is plus 275 at at 365 so he finished fifth at last year’s caralis um caralis excuse me and that as you said that was also contested on pass palum greens he’s been so with his top 20 number right he’s been flirting with it recently he’s got three top 25
Finishes over his last six tournaments including his eighth place finish at the RSM classic but the problem is that that out of those three top 25s that eth was the only time they cracked the top 20 but he’s been right off the number in the other two and at plus 275 I think
It’s worth a shot again as I’ve been reiterating reiterating through my play so far above average putter above average in Greens regulation from 175 to 200 um and then with the success he’s shown like at last year’s carrales Pana Championship why not take a shot at him to finish top 20 at plus
275 I’ll uh I’ll hang on that corales theme for for one more uh which brings me to Vincent Norman uh I’m gonna go with him in the top 10 Market at plus 650 um he finished 16th at corales last year he also finished 18th here uh gaining Strokes in all four major
Categories including five Strokes ball striking fits that same mold uh in terms of Stevens pendrith and Davis Thompson if you are noticing a theme he rakes top 15 in carry distance driving distance off the te on driver heavy courses with a low Miss Fairway penalty uh I just
Love this particular skill profile for this golf course if you’re noticing a theme I think you want to have a lot of experience on these resorts tropical pass po cores be a great middle to Long iron player a very powerful driver of the ball as well um so I I
Love Vincent Norman to finish in the top 10 this week at plus plus 650 nice I like that line and I have a play that’s kind of like right next to it so top 10 Market plus 600 is Maverick mcney so the reason I love mcney so much
This week is because he has been over the past two seasons he flies under the radar but he’s been one of the best Putters if not the putter on tour I mean maybe Denny McCarthy is maybe the only guy to take over him on greens but he’s
Been right up there he’s 35th this season so far in Strokes game putting he finished last year first which is pretty remarkable given that the results weren’t quite there but that’s why I like him this week finally is because the results are starting to come he just
Finished six at the Phoenix Open so I’m hoping he carries that momentum along with that putter over down here to Mexico top 10 plus 600 for Maverick mcney love that one as well I’m going to stick in the top 10 market and give you one more top 10 before I start to take
Some shots and a couple more long shots I’m going to go with Jonathan Vegas plus 650 he’s right there next to Norman in the top 10 market and he fits the consistent theme that I’m going with this week as well he also happens to hit
The ball a very long way off the T um and he is coming off a 22nd in Phoenix where things really started to come together for him he took a bit of an extended layoff towards the end of 2023 missed his first couple of cuts coming
Out of the gate in 2024 but things really seemed to click for him in Phoenix he gained over three Strokes off the te and over three Strokes on approach if we go back to look at Vegas’s historical metrics these types of golf courses have been the places
Where you want to play Johnny Vegas he has had a tremendous amount of success on pass palum he rakes second in this entire field and strokes gain total on pass palum over the last three years he’s starting to show me a little bit of form and now he travels to a golf course
That was tailor made for his game plus 650 is a great spot to bet Johnny Vegas in the top 10 Market if you don’t really trust him to win yet I like that I like that play a lot and so I’m gonna go a little bit farther away from top 10 I’m
Gonna go to the top 30 market and I’m gonna Target badley again so we’ve each kind of found our own themes this week mine’s obviously been putting so far and Aaron badley again it’s another guy who kind of flies on the but he’s one of the best
Putters on tour he’s second this season so far in Strokes game putting finished 31st last year in a much larger sample size and again with this such a water down field 31st on tour last year in Strokes game putting is like the fourth or fifth best Mark in this field this
Week um so and he’s in good form as well he’s coming off a 28th Place finish at the Phoenix Open again against a much tougher field and he’s got three top 30 finishes over his past six tournaments um and finally this this is why I love bad the most this week and especially
Why I love him top 30 at plus 260 at bet 36 at bet 365 he’s finished inside the top 30 in eight of his 11 career appearances at Greg Norman design courses which of course we know this week Vidant is a Greg Norman design course I mean that’s that’s such a great
Trend to Target especially when you’re getting a number of plus 260 on return for Aaron badley so that’s where I’m going to go for the top 30 Market I’m gonna go top 20 on this one um and I got him at plus 350 I’m gonna go with Carson young uh who’s you know
Maybe the first player that I’m talking about that doesn’t really have this over imposing power off the te but he certainly makes up for it with his middle to Long iron play he is one of the best players in this field rakes top 20 in both proximity 175 to 200 and
Proximity 200 yards plus he is one of the biggest risers uh in this field on slower greens he’s had a bunch of success on pass Palm already in the past he finished 15th here last year and gained over seven strokes ball striking and 1.8 putting so he’s proven already
That this golf course fits his eye from Tia green and that he’s putted well here in the past coming off of 41st in Phoenix where he gained over 3.5 Strokes on approach young has now gained over three Strokes on approach in back-to-back starts so I think for a guy to finish in
The top 20 at plus 350 just based on his iron play alone I think this is a very very very worthy Dart throw for Carson young absolutely and I like how he’s been starting to play recently so that brings me to this play is a little weird
For me so I’m gonna I’m just going to take a top 40 because I think plus 100 is ridiculous to for this play so chest Hadley top 40 is plus 100 I think it’s kind of ridiculous they catching plus money here so it’s why I’m taking it
Taking this instead of like I was debating taking him outright so this almost feels like a course that was made for Hadley so he won the 2014 Puerto Rico open that was also a tournament contested on past palum greens he’s also finished fourth at the 2015 Valero Texas
Open that takes place at TPC San Antonio and that is another Greg Norman design course he’s got 10 top 40 finishes over his past 40 t or four sorry 14 tournaments and he’s a great putter he’s fifth on tour this season in Strokes game putting he was 30th last year on
Tour in Strokes game putting a much bigger sample size and he’s one of the best approach players from 175 to 200 yards on tour this year he rakes ninth in Greens regulation from that distance last year ranked 12th again bigger sample size there is not a single like
Box that he does not check out of the things I like out of golfers this week so I mean I feel he’s a good ladder play you could take him top 40 but then like go heavier on that but then go top 30 top 20 top 10 but I’m just gonna at plus
100 I’m just gonna take him top 40 and I feel like that’s a very safe play for him this week I’m gonna stick with that market as well I’m going to go with Justin low top 40 plus 175 um I love the top 40 market in terms
Of like being able to identify these guys that we may not necessarily trust to win or even contend but they’re just grading out for us a lot higher than their price would suggest um you’ve talked about putting a lot I have laow as the number one slow green putter in
This entire field he also happens to be a really great iron player as well he ranks 10th in this field in overall approach play uh and he’s coming off a 53rd in Phoenix which which is okay but he did gain over 2.5 Strokes on approach
Uh and kind of the only thing that held him back was his putter in Phoenix and he’s shown his long-term form with the putter he’s one of the best Putters in this entire field particularly when you put him on uh slower greens so he’s also
Got a 23rd at El cardal and 15th at caral so he gives you that pass ball in form too I’m going to go with Justin low plus 175 top 40 I love it I love it all right so I’m gonna take us over to the first round leader market and again same
As last week right now these are my leans um these are the only two bets I have not actually locked in yet because I want to see the tea times um but first i’m gonna look at n Nikolai hoard he’s 30 to one to be the first round leader
And considering that what is he to win like 18 to1 15 to1 he’s he’s like second oddon favorite to win the whole thing I trust him way more on Thursday than I do on Sunday that’s not because he doesn’t have the talent to win on tour yet it’s
Just it’s as someone who has not done it yet it’s way easier trust a guy to go out and get a lead on Thursday than it is to fend off all the chasers on a Sunday if he is to be leading late and so that’s why I especially love the
Number on him in 30 to one so I like him in this market instead of the actual outright market and I mean this is guy he’s kind of like Oar where like he’s he’s next up you know he’s you runner up at the Farmers Insurance open runner up
At the corales punan punana championship last year that as we’ve said multiple times I was also contested on pass palum greens he’s two for two on made cuts at Greg Norman design courses he’s a tremendous I mean there’s really not a flaw in this game but he’s a tremendous
Putter tremendous long iron tremendous mid iron there’s so much like about hoard and if you’re gonna take his Market where he’s like 15 to one basically double it to come out as the leader on Thursday I’d much rather take a Dar thr on that than him to win it
Anyway so I’ll take way guard first round leader at 30 to one at bet 365 I’m gonna stick with you in the first round later market and go a little bit farther down the board with Andrew Novak uh 80 to one first round leader one of the things I was looking at statistically
Was I was filtering out round one performance on these driver heavy wide openen easy golf courses with a low Miss Fairway penalty Andrew Novak shoots to the very top of that list and it makes sense right this is a guy that makes a ton of birdies he comes out firing we
Saw him do it at the Phoenix Open uh where he ended up still finishing eighth he gained over 5.2 Strokes on approach uh he’s had a lot of success on slow lower greens as well he’s also finished 15th at Vidant viarta as well where he gained over four strokes on approach too
So if you’re looking for a guy to Make Some Noise maybe probably tail off a little bit more as the tournament goes on I think you could do a lot worse than Andrew Novak in the first round later Market at 80 to1 who has a strong historical correlation for coming out of
The gates really hot particularly on these types of golf courses all right I love it and that brings me to my last and this is so I’m going to stay in the first round leader Market again not locked in yet this strong leing just waiting on the tea
Times um and my article on the first round leaders will be out on the Action Network on either Tuesday or W but emilano gillo first round leaders 35 to one so last year guo finally got finally got that win where he won the Charles Schwab challenge I was his first
Win what eight years nine years that was his first time W in a long time and that performance was thanks to his putter I mean I know he had the Great approach shots in the playoff but the reason he was even in that playoff was because of
The tremendous amount of putts he was making um in that fourth and Final Round prior to the playoff and like it’s funny because like he was a guy where his putter was such a big question mark for so many years but he’s really dialed it
Down or dialed it in excuse me and so if you’re looking at a course where you want a good Putter and you want recent form guo I feel like is a great shot to start off Sean on Thursday he’s got four top 25 finishes over his last five
Tournaments and my most important thing is he finished fifth here last year and again as I mentioned in the beginning of the show when I was talking about hover not many a lot of a lot of this field has not played this tournament before so him having played and not only having
Played having played very very well here is gon to be such a big Advantage especially on that first round Thursday when so many guys are seeing this course comp in a competitive fashion for the first time um so yeah I think I think G
At 35 to1 is worth the shot in the first round leader Market okay I will finish this up here with a matchup and I will take take Doug gim over Aaron Ry minus 120 which is available right now on bet 365 gim has been playing some phenomenal
Golf recently he still ranks 14th in this field in overall approach play he’s coming off at 12th in Phoenix where he gained 2.6 off the T 2.8 on approach prior to that he finished top 15 at Tory Pines as well so he has now had back-to-back top 15 finishes on way
Better Fields than this on way more difficult golf courses than this now he gets a bit of a soft landing on a course where he has played twice 33rd miscut so not great but in the year that he finished 33rd he gained over nine Strokes ball striking so clearly there’s
Something about this golf course that fits gim’s eye I just trust his iron play over Ry far more right now and his driving ability ry’s had a really strong start to the season missed three of his first four Cuts I’m going to go with gim
As a slight favorite over Aaron Ry as a full tournament matchup available on bet 365 and that’ll do it for our Best Bets episode for the Mexico championship before we get out of here a final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365
Doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for
Their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800
Gambler or 1 800 bets off in Iowa terms condition I conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action experts Spencer aiar and Nick brwi return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for the Mexico Championship betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony Sartori I’m your
Host Andy laak and we’ll see you back here next week on the linkon locks podcast presented by bet 365
