How realistic are playoff chances without Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman? | CHGO Cubs Podcast

Corey and Brendan discuss the wide-ranging possibilities of the current Cubs roster. How many extreme outcomes has to go the Cubs way to make the playoffs? How does Craig Counsell manage roles for Christopher Morel, lead-off hitters, relievers, and starters?

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#Cubs #ChicagoCubs #FlyTheW

This is the chgo Cubs podcast my name is Corey I am joined as always by Brendan welcome into the Friday edition of the chgo Cubs podcast it is Friday February 16th Brendon the Chicago Cubs pitchers and catchers some other position players for sure have reported to Mesa Spring

Training sort of underway in Earnest we’ve got people complaining about jerseys the Cubs are wearing nice uh Baby Blue Hats now when they do their workouts we’ve seen everybody and their brother gushing over sha imanaga how how you feeling about everything Oh and before I forget uh

Cody Bellinger not a cup so just just so everybody knows I am trying my best to ignore that fact I was telling you this I’m exhausted talking about Bellinger I’m exhaust talking about Matt Shaman Snell Montgomery all these guys it is our duty to move on unfortunately now do

I actually move do I actually move on no because I have issues I will never move on but I’m trying my best to focus on the present enjoy the content the middle infield content we’re getting it’s spring training this is what it is yeah

I I think you know I know that uh Luke and Cody and Ryan Ryan who’s out in Arizona providing some great spring training coverage for all ch.com so make sure you’re following Ryan and checking out all cd.com for all of his daily reports live from

Mesa it it’s a it’s a weird spot because I think you and I talked about this last week where we have you me the entire chgo Cubs crew every other podcast you might listen to every blog every newspaper whatever we’ve discussed this so much we have broken down the

Bellinger contract options his profile the longterm every single aspect of this and I don’t want to keep doing it so I know that everybody was riled up the other day when Jed was talking about maybe the closers warming up in the off seon maybe some moves and of course the

Big discussion of counting on internal development that is the new perhaps that might enter the new uh you know the list of buzzword yes from this front office intelligent spending biblical losses from Tom internal development they do this to themselves yeah we don’t have to talk about these

Narratives they’re the ones who put those stakes in the ground the offense broke for example years back then moving on to is the fourth or fifth inning of the off season to now the Clos is warming up to we have no power we need

To blow teams out etc etc etc by the way I’m very confident we’re going to resign Anthony Rizzo I don’t take anything they say at face value you can’t yeah I I I bring that up because I know everybody was riled up about it and you if you listen to

Brendan and I and I think I think Luke Cody and Ryan like everybody I think on our crew at least has offered their opinion on how we would feel if the off season were truly over today and this was the roster and Cody Bellinger went somewhere else or Matt Chapman went

Somewhere else etc etc so perhaps it’ll be part of the discussion but I person personally I don’t want to spend this whole episode getting riled up about what Jed said because as of this moment there is a team that is reporting there are also still several free agents the

Cubs could sign and presumably are in the middle of discussions with whether they get across the goal line there who knows so when those guys sign we can re-evaluate either what this roster looks like with them or the offseason as a whole without them again like when I hear internal development and that’s

What they’re counting on y’all know if you’ve been listening to me I’m pissed off hearing that it’s it’s possibly a negotiating tactic with Boris and how long this is taking but you already know I don’t want that the team needs to be better than that but it it’s not a done

Deal yet so we can discuss it when we see what they’re actually doing but I do want to kind of use that idea as somewhat of a jumping off point for this podcast I I want you want to jump off the cliff is that what you’re saying

Kind at the moment yeah kind of that’s what I that’s what I thought for an 80 win team that you know 81 and a half I’m already I’m already getting hot about it which I said I wasn’t gonna do told not to do it um I do want to again I think

Brendan’s point is the correct one like we have no choice appreciate that yes we have no choice as people talking about this to analyze the team that they have and like I said we will yell if they don’t sign anybody else we will break it down if they do sign people

Until then I do kind of want to use one of Craig council’s comments on the subject as a jumping off point I think for you maybe the bulk of this episode before you read what he said I will make one comment I want correct counsil to

Speak for the front office I don’t want the front office to speak ever again cro council is great however C also learn how to speak to the media I want Jed in the front office to take that class I’m I’m not dissing Jed or whatever but he really he has so many self-inflicted

Wounds over the years just don’t say anything take the bill B don’t set expectations you don’t you’re not going to live up to say it because the players get asked about it then we get responses it’s like and I said we don’t want to Bel it we’re going to be belver it a

Little uh no the the IAL thing for me is when you talk about counting on internal development and you look at where the team is at now roster wise without Bellinger without strowman with some unknowns across the team like it just doesn’t Square to me with how upset and

Disappointed everyone was with missing the Playoffs because at the moment you don’t you haven’t put together an off season that truly rectifies that or like puts you in a assured position to prevent that from happening again have you I think we all agree they have not so now that being said

Again maybe a negotiating tactic and maybe the team looks different and better in a week we’ll get to it but before I read this quote from Council that I think will Center a lot of the discussion I do just want to ask you Brendan like initial Impressions guys are there we’re hearing

From the media Ryan our guy Ryan Herrera has sent a lot of good interviews and quotes from some of the guys before I throw it to you for me it has been something you and I have talked about which is the amount of people who seem

To keep having that like oh yeah Craig council’s the manager now kind of like realization it was multiple people like on Twitter with with me today like every time I see this clip I’m like oh yeah Craig Council manages the Cs now he’s our manager yeah that stood out to me he

Used the word layering on Justice deal developments the past few days which I I appreciate and that’s what I’m talking about where I hope Jed can learn from Council but outside of council Kyle Hendrick happy exuding confidence exuding that he’s healthy you talked you and I talked about what do we look for

During spring training I look for what these guys are saying body language smiling are they happy with their health and Kyle looks really really healthy the only concern for me going into the year with Kyle was the shoulder Health can he withstand a season with a with a

Capsular terror that few pitchers end up dealing with and right now going into the year he looks really confident therefore I should be confident in Kyle Hendricks yeah I I think it was on Thursday I was reading a quote uh from shoda um he was you know giving his

Initial Impressions and stuff and one of them was that he watched Kyle Hendrick and Hendrick doesn’t make mistakes even when he’s playing catch was something that that sha pointed out and I I do I do love that it it fits exactly that even if you’re just like doing long toss

Like Kyle right right there every time like right in the chest there’s no mistakes he’s just precise no matter what he’s doing and that’s what everyone says about Kyle I think Jordan Wix said the same thing wineski said the same thing when they wash his Bullpen he’s

Just a robot he’s consistent he is default mode and he hits to Target no time wasted in between he’s that guy yeah I I do Wonder like when we’re when we’re like a bit older if we’ll look back and like Marvel at because I feel like Hendrick is

Underrated definitely I think he might be one of the most underrated players in the league but like when you look back at his body of work since he came to this team and the reputation he’s built and if he is able especially after this injury to continue and have success

Coming back from it and as he grows older he’s he’s putting together a very quiet I think at least outside of our bubble like quiet just really really amazing like MLB career here it feels like it and I I think the playoff pedigree with the regular season

Accolades in a weird way I think Joe Madden taking him out in game seven of the World Series boosted his overall perception because he was pitching well during the playoffs you he won the pennant two weeks prior against the Dodgers I think that indirectly boosted how some fans perceive hendrickx as one

Of those guys as one of those guys in whom you can trust separate from that I enjoy watching the guy pitch L Casper described him as having a Mentos having a mint it was just fresh and to this day it still remains that way yeah uh so

Yeah I mean that was kind of my first impression I suppose everybody coming like you I very much enjoy listening to Craig Council talk just his thoughts on the game of baseball development uh how he’s going to utilize some of these players I think it’s it’s nice to listen

To um I I did want to ask you it it looked like the Cubs have already started tinkering with one sha imanaga now I know it’s it’s hard for you you’re not there you don’t have the data but yes I and I and I think you mentioned that they might do that

Anything jump out at you from the little that you can see or I saw it on the social media him disengaging his glove uh prior to initiating his overall windup I saw all of that sure you know it’s still like day one or day two of

Spring training not to read can I ask you maybe this is a stupid question which you can feel free to tell me it’s a stupid question I always do I I know they make changes constantly to everybody is it weird that like at maybe now maybe I’m just like a little scarred

From it but like my first reaction is they tiered with jamus and tyion and it totally messed him up yeah I mean there’s pros and cons too at Tommy hadavi almost kind of uh admitted that the cutter and some of the curve leaked into his sweeper that he developed as a

Result of the changes that is the risk some coaching staffs are willing to take should you be concerned about it I don’t know I mean you can point to delivery changes in the past and see the good come out of it one good for example was

U darish years ago there were times U darish was like pausing in his actual delivery I don’t know if you remember that he would get to his high point in his front leg and he would pause and then go again before he delivered he was tinkering with that all the time Carl

Edwards Jr who’s now back with the Cubs was doing the same thing so in a way sometimes you have to Tinker to go through that process where you ultimately land in your most comfortable spot I have no issues with it you have to be careful with it there are risks

Associated with it but naturally baseball players not even pitchers but hitters as well they always Tinker go look at batting stances all throughout the year on a yearly basis guys look different look at KB from year one to now look at Nico Herer every single year schwarber is a great example every one

Of these guys are always tinkering as part of the process and anyone else jump to mind about Tinker that you remember covering you want you want to talk about Jason Hayward right now yeah yeah yeah yeah listen I have never I have never been more hyper sensitive to the

Smallest change in someone’s swing than I was when watching the first footage from Mesa of Jason Hayward there was always something I know I know well we were desperate that 200 plus million or $170 million whatever it was but these this is what these guys do when I was uh

When I was like I know guys Tinker I didn’t mean it in that way but just in terms of the pictures I I’m a little like let him go through the process you know I’m interested in it he looks good by the way sha looks great I was watching some

Of those Bullpen videos super smooth super relax it definitely aligns with what we’ve heard from his preparation in terms of him wanting to almost be like resisting like gravity and let gravity go through his motion it was cool it was very cool to see him in the Cubs uniform

And get to experience everything and for what we’ve heard he’s fitting in perfectly he seems very comfortable even from day one yeah and another you know sort of just like first impression was it’s interesting to hear Craig Council talk about his perspective from the other Dugout I I

Think that’s one of the fascinating things uh you know we’re not getting like the full hey here was our scouting report on each of you guys but I know the other day he said something something about how frustrated the Brewers always were that they couldn’t score runs off of Justin steel and you

Know feeling like they should have been able to hit it better and you know just how tricky his fast ball was to actually hit and I think stuff like that is rather fascinating I mean I it’s it’s not it’s not a super frequent occurrence that you get uh your one of your biggest

Rivals and a team you have seen so much throughout someone’s managerial career then go and manage that other team so it is kind of the little nuggets we get about his perspective of the of the Cubs from when he was trying to beat them I think is a very sort of fascinating

Insight that we get I’m happy that you’re becoming happier throughout this podcast he started off a little upset all it took was you thinking about Corr Council on this team that’s all it took all it took was me to just stop thinking about the actual roster of the let’s not

Go back to that topic let’s stay on this okay we’re not going to revert so uh we can introduce I guess the the council quote that’s sort of maybe going to serve as a jumping off point touch on it a little and then we’ll hit our first

Bad break and come back and and really dive into it but I the the quote from Council uh which was from Thursday was there’s a bunch of guys that are right in that sweet spot to take a really good leap in performance so again we will offer our thoughts on if the Chicago

Cubs are relying on internal improvements to make the playoffs and be good and hit some of those goals when the off season is truly over I promise we are not attempting to justify the roster they have or the lack of moves or anything like that so don’t misconstrue

It but as we said they’re in Camp this is what they’re doing so we’re going to going to talk about it because if you want to listen to us yell about Cody Bellinger spending more money this and that I got hours of audio and video for

You from this off season that can touch on just those topics so I I think it’s it’s an interesting quote from Council and there are a lot of guys that really do jump out and I think the most obvious you know for some people is going to be some of those prospects

Michael Bush at first base the runway he’s going to get PCA potentially the runway he may get but my mind sort of went to slightly more established players that might be able to take that jump and I I I think you could look at it either

Way but I think you know for me again as we’ve talked about seya Suzuki representing one of those players almost immediately how he performed in those last couple months being one of the best hitters in the league for such a long stretch after the little rest that David

Ross gave him on the bench like that to me is is an area that I’m assuming you know I think Craig council is really honing in on for some of these guys not just the obvious like yeah of course like if PCA gets a a longer chance at

The MLB level and develops of course that is someone taking that lead yeah I mean SE always stands out right because he has the the power ceiling to really push that offensive profile from a 350 is WBA with contact and good discipline to 380 plus if you

Can Slug and hit 25 to 30 home runs and it would not be surprising if we see him hit 35 as like a 90th percentile projection outcome for me when we talk about what guys could look like as established players I also think about how he’s going to utilize Ian half and I

Think about that that lead off spot and that particular start of the lineup you know Ross had extreme opinions about this at times and he was resistant to batting Ian haap lead off to a lot of people’s displeasure over the course of the Season there were definitely

Instances where I did not like him batting Nick magal lead off earlier in the season and giving Nick magal those that bats so for me it’s the established players and the roles that he establishes those players in also curious about Dan B Swanson’s playing time we’ll get into it uh later in this

Episode but is he more inclined to give guys more frequent days off there are also instances where he gave Corbin burns more than five days off in between starts here and there what does that mean for Justin steel who struggle with fatigue as the season went on what does

That mean for shoda imanaga who is used to having a six day in between start uh schedule so there’s a lot of different storylines to follow and we’ll find out but if there’s one thing to fall back on I have confidence in Council because he expresses confidence in this and he is

Willing to be flexible for her s for certain players as he’s expressed as well yeah absolutely uh so we can continue diving into this I I I I’m curious you know when you first again not getting into all of the Nuance of it but when you first hear that like how

Crazy how how much do you feel like it’s it’s too much that needs to go right for that type of strategy to really work for this team or when you at first glance is it is it reasonable if you get X number of internal improvements it it really

Could work out for them or when you first hear that are you like no way it’s too many players that you need to make that lead I wouldn’t count on it but it’s not unrealistic so me personally I’m risk averse and my risk aversion means I need 94 wins on paper going into

The year and so if we’re not approaching 94 wins I’m not happy that’s a funny I love that you say that because it’s such a there’s such a different version of being risk averse yeah you know because when you first said that I was gonna say

Oh just like Jed Hoyer but you meant it in the opposite way that that’s the that’s the you meant I will sign riskier contracts to make sure my win projection is less risky as a dump fan with no front office experience my assessment of risk is that 2025 and Beyond is

Unpredictable and I’m not willing to sacrifice the immediate year given that risk so I’m gonna go out I’m gonna spend more money up front I’m gonna sign the Matt Chapman sign the Cody bingers etc etc and not risk this season that’s how I think about things

You you said that you were a dumb fan that doesn’t have any front office experience I do just want to point out to you Brendan because you know you’re a little self-deprecating in that you uh a a as president of the Chicago Cubs you and Jed Hoyer have the same amount of

Playoff wins so look at that you know you may not have the experience but you’re right now sort of just as successful so I appreciate that I appreciate that and you know what to your credit too you know you managed Jose ler who a World Series champions so

You have a front office World Series champion pedigree yourself so look at us we’re both successful some people that are listening know the context of what you just said but I’m not going to provide it because it seems really confusing and I think that’s kind of

Funny so all right we’ll go uh yeah we’ll jump into our first ad break here and then we will continue on uh talking about internal improvements for the Chicago Cubs in 2024 are you in the market for a new vehicle if you are then we have some

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Becoming a DieHard member we’ve run through it before but you get a free shirt you get discounts on the events we just had a bulls takeover we’ll have Hawks takeovers I’m sure we’ve got some plans being cooked up uh for the Cub season of course some Cubs takeovers uh

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Member and support the team your lovely chgo Cubs team we do appreciate you uh back with you and Brendan let’s let’s get back to internal development for 2024 players that can take that next step so when you hear that who is the first person you think of oh man

Christopher Morell defensively role wise I’m interested in morel’s static consistent development I at the same time like how he’s gone through these extreme phases where the powers pushed from a 20 to 25 profile to like 3540 with a big sample size where I would like Morell to take the next step is to

Have not asking for a lot a 70% contact he’s been going through peakon Valley sometimes he’s around 70 to 72 other times he’s around 60 to 65 I would like some stability at that contact point that way if he goes through some funks at least he has the ability to put hard

Hit balls in play with crater frequency and keep that stable offensive profile because I think the power is going to stay I think in consistent playing time given how he’s progressed 30 home run guy in a in a normal uh role is not without question and in fact something

That would have scaled appropriately in a full sample last year for me Christopher Morell outside of just the defensive role which of course he’s going to draw a lot of uh point of discussions throughout the year I I am kind of surprised you know I know that

Christopher Morell is one of those guys that Craig Council kind of identified right away um I think at Cubs con when they were sort of asking about the roster and some of that stuff he was one of those guys that he identified right away as like he’s got to play he can

Play everywhere like we’re we’re gonna find a good role for him that was sort of something seems like a such a stark contrast to how he’s been talked about at least in the public sphere by David Ross and the front office going into last season yeah but I I do sort of

Remain I don’t know if surprised is the right word and of course there is time for this to change but I not I of course I didn’t expect him to be named the third baseman or anything like that but I I guess I expected either through their maneuvering at third base or

Something else that maybe we would have a little Clarity by the time we arrived in Camp on like exactly what Morel might be doing and I know I know Council also mentions sort of his ability to play all over the field Jed has talked about it

So they do value that utility man role but I don’t know I guess I just expected somebody else to be starting at third base Nick magical you’re starting third baseman yeah right you know so that’s why another point that you and I will not belor I was tempted to go into it I’m

Not gonna lie tempted to go into we don’t have to but but yeah I think Morell is sort of the the obvious answer here because there is such potential there uh and I think the range of outcomes is is really wide for him it it

It doesn’t seem I know he played some in winterball but it doesn’t seem like they’re certainly committed to having him only play Third Base and and that’s going to be his position and nobody else’s uh but you know you have the possibility that he is a utility man

Mostly a DH that as you said takes that next step on offense you have the potential that he is that same utility man kind of playing everywhere but still inconsistent on offense has more of those stretches where the K rate spikes then you have some scenarios where maybe

He does find himself a position he does look better throwing maybe in spring training from third base he plays there more and is a maybe not every day but most days third baseman hitting like you described there’s also the scenario where he struggles and is incons it just

I feel like with most players you don’t have such a wide range of how he could be contributing is it was a long-winded way of saying that from a ton guy who’s inconsistent to an everyday starter who is taking that next step as a hitter it’s just such a wide range of potential

Outcomes I do as I’ve said before and I I I don’t I don’t necessarily want to get into a habit of just appealing to Authority when it comes to Craig Council but I I do trust him to maneuver this in a smart way I I think it’s clear he sees

The value in morel’s potential and I trust him to Manicure his playing time and his matchups to to put him in in the right place to succeed how many games that looks like how many defensive starts that looks like that’s the part we don’t know but I I do for now trust

Craig Council to make those those right decisions I think there there’s players sometimes that we we ask the question of like does the team value him the way that maybe we think we do or as fans do or do they see that potential what are

We missing as fans and I think for Morel in particular he’s one of those guys and I I think Craig Council gets it where Ross and Council differ too which is a plus for Ross is they playing experience Council was like Morell Council played third base second base shortstop first

Base at the tail end of his career he understands the difficulties in learning different positions and like Morell Council played sporadically at some points in his career as well and he had big walls that he hit the difference between Council and Ross is that Ross didn’t have that type of experience and

I do think despite him talking with other coaches and trying to get in the shoes of his players you can’t teach that you can’t substitute that for experience and where Ross excelled at was I think managing the katcher situation where Yan goes had his best possible outcome in 2023 and he pushed

Miguel Amaya in a role that was quite valuable and it was learning at the same time I think Council having that experience and the the pedigree as a manager as well to go and learn and deal with players like Morell is Really Gonna Shine I’m excited to see him and I’m

Excited to see how he fits in even with guys like Patrick wisom and limited roles who’s on this roster as well yeah so I mean you know and I mentioned already SE Suzuki I think he’s another obvious one um in terms of if he is the hitter that he was for those last

Two months you know that sort of explains itself that you would have a very valuable looks like he gained like another 10 pounds too I saw pictures of seya he’s huge you know so I think he’s gonna hit 50 home runs 60 home runs maybe listen you know I’m a Believer I

Saw those Sprints too to me he looked like Sammy solsa out there I had to like you know you know scratch my ass yeah yeah my fake glasses my fake so I think he’s an obvious one but perhaps those are the most obvious of the two

Now again I mentioned when we sort of started this conversation any Prospect fits into this of course they do uh PCA of course those guys represent the potential if PCA is the defender that we know he can be the base runner that we know he can be and is able to adjust at

The MLB level which of course he will have a much uh more reasonable opportunity to do that than he did last year again he didn’t look good but a very tough spot for a very young player given the circumstances and context of the Cub season so he of course

Represents that ability to take another leap when you look around the rest of the roster though the less obvious ones where where are you kind of honing in I I know you’ve written you’ve talked you’ve did we say you talked to Tommy hady about James you sort of SP I talked he looked

At my face and he heard me talk and he responded but he seems to represent perhaps one of the biggest opportunities there for this team I think if you had a more consistent it doesn’t boil down to just him of course he was one of their more consistent pitchers down the stretch

Than some of the other guys certainly but if you had New York jamus and tyone for the entirety of 2023 the Cubs make the playoffs yeah there’s a lot of players who fit that what if role to our earlier point of course Tone’s important of course guys like Morel are important and see

Having that second half in 2024 all all of that’s important the Cubs right now being an 80- win team on paper suggests that for them to make the playoffs which let’s say requires 88 wins that requires them to be about you know half a standard deviation away from most teams

Hitting their projections so that is kind of kind of an outlier uh so it’s not just James tyone rebounding it’s not just SE Suzuki performing well it’s all of the above this all has to happen yeah we’re talking about a win improvement from a production standpoint across four

To five different players now if you want to zoom out a little bit where I think has the most if you assume that you’re going to get you know slightly better from those hitters for me the biggest influence that Council and this current Cubs team can have on boosting their projections

Is that Bullpen I think that’s where you can hit on The Fringe decisions and not just go from an 80 to 85 win team but in extreme circumstances I’m talking extreme really extreme circumstances if you hit that Bullpen Mark if you’re healthy you can expand out the role then

You can maybe mess around and reach 90 wins in an extreme outcome way with that Bullpen that’s because we’ve seen that with Council in Milwaukee in years past and that Bullpen right now as is constructed high volume 10 plus guys in that Bullpen there’s more whiff potential in that Bullpen now so I’m

Going to pick like one necessity given the current roster it’s not tayion it’s not seya it’s not these guys is really the bullpen that Bullpen has the widest range of outcomes and unpredictable outcomes to push the CBS towards that extreme end yeah and I mean

Look I we’ve talked about it a lot and I you know certainly was hopeful and I guess I remain a little hopeful that their strategy wasn’t well let’s just get a better game manager and we should be a better team at the moment that does sort of look like what they’ve done this

Off season at least a little bit uh but with the additions they have made to the bullpen I do expect that to be better and look we talk a lot about the quote we need you know the best teams blow teams out that’s the easiest way to win

In the game of baseball because you remove a lot of those random things you’re you’re not as you’re not as concerned about single runs scoring on a blue pit or things like that because you’ve scored enough runs that that you’ve kind of eliminated the risk there they’re not going to do

That at least I don’t think they’re going to do that uh what we saw from the Cubs in 2023 was they would have those explosive games but they weren’t necessarily consistent in having those obviously uh but they were capable of putting up an 18 spot every now and

Again so if they wanted to do that on a more frequent basis I would advise them to I don’t know if Craig Cel has the ability to call that play but they they should the easiest way for them to win can be surprised just go score 15 today

Okay easy enough yeah support your guy Justin steel just put up a crooked number every inning we be will’ll be great that’s my advice as the new manager um but I do think that that is key to this team they are not going to blow everybody out they did not build an

Offense that you would expect to be able to do that so I do think the additions in the bullpen and of course Craig council’s managing of said Bullpen that really truly could be the difference when we get if you’re looking at the roster as is and you’re talking about

How this NL Central goes I I do think that is perhaps one of the biggest factors and there’s so much that you need to have continue from 2023 or get better of course but they’re going to play a lot of close games and they need

To be better in those close games and as we saw in 2023 not only do you need to be better in those close games you have to be better in those close games games from the minute the season starts to the minute it ends it cannot you cannot wear

Out your ability to win close games we saw that the entirety of September so many close games so many tight games so many games that came down to one guy in the bullpen not being able to cover their inning of the three or four the bullpen had to cover that night or one

Run left on third base with less than two outs that they didn’t get in that they wish they had right and I if if the roster is as con currently constructed I think even with Cody Bellinger you’re going to have to win close games and the

Hope is the belief is they have a manager that is better suited to do that if you I totally agree if you think about what is more likely two scenarios the first scenario is your Bullpen is one of the better bullpens in the league you hit late August they’re healthy

They’re not fatigued they’re performing well getting whiffs they’re getting uh consistent contributions from guys from Triple A and they’re not hampered by lacking minor league options they’re in a good position that’s scenario number one scenario number two is getting extreme profiles from Nick magical from talkman again from you mean him hitting

Like two homers all year or something say three home runs but two I’ll take two as well okay and getting those extreme positional improvements across the diamond it’s really hard to get a lot of the extreme offensive performances but it seems in my view the first option with the bullpen getting it

Together optimizing the sequencing uh optimizing the scheduling in a utilization of your Bullpen that has the most wide ranging effect on winds say Suzuki R now has projected around two wins for next season now you and I will disagree with that projection but that is what computers think seya is

Worth right now also similarly you look at guys like Nick magicals 1.3 win projection on fan graphs right now n and Dansby are still consistent at four wins so their extreme scenario is less extreme maybe they jump to four five wins as they did last season but that’s

Pretty narrow and you look at magical and the other guys you may get an extra one one win or two wins from them but when you start adding them up maybe an extra four or five wins and those are really difficult to hit on all those positional players but from the bullpen

If you can just nail down two weeks in a row where you’re not overusing your guys you squeak out two to three wins on close one run games and you do so without fatiguing your Bullpen that has longl lasting effects that’s how you go from last season with a bullpen that was

Dying by the time you got to Arizona in September to a bullpen that’s thriving hopefully pushing a penet Chase into October I hadn’t thought about that Series in Arizona in a while I went to the worst possible game last season that was a 14 inning game

And in to defend Dansby Swanson on on that particular uh game by the way I was sitting like three rows Behind The Dugout I think wineski was pitching and people said oh why didn’t D B Swanson catch that ball in the air I’m watching this right in front of me oh yeah yeah

Yeah I thought it hit Wes’s like ankle it was such a weird looking hit and I think that I think Danby didn’t know what the hell was going on well and I and I and I kind of do want to ask a little bit about um you know maybe

Dansby or or some of those guys when we come back from our second ad break but uh I it it did remind me and that’s what I wanted to ask about like I think part of that reaction was from B second half he was not hitting well no and so then

That happened and everybody was like okay you know uh but you I mean you and I have talked a little bit about squaring expectations for certain guys based on who they are um you know and now we’re getting in the weeds and I do want to ask about it but I I remember

Like particularly in that second half like you know Dan weed’s hitting higher than he probably should in a better constructed lineup see where he hit in Atlanta and you know has always kind of been a the guy he is at the plate so this is a long conversation let’s do the

I I did want to ask sort of about because I I do want to talk about this it squares with you know players taking you know sort of a even a little bit of a leap but it adds context to who Danby Swanson is so we need to talk about this

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Electric connects us to a better way of doing business and a better future for generations to come all right back with you here so let’s talk let let’s so I I what I what I wanted to ask about Dansby in particular now at a certain point you’re

Kind of like it’s it it wouldn’t it would be somewhat of incremental change but like you look at his season and if you were just breaking it down by the halves you put up a 108 WRC Plus in the first half a 98 WRC Plus in the second

Half so that was certainly something that I think Drew the call it the ey of some folks and and I I understood it to a degree he was the big signing he talked a lot about winning and wanting to be that guy you were always pointing

Out he was the first person at the top of the steps when somebody scored or hit a home run he wants to be that guy wants to be the face of the franchise the leader the guy that being said I did think it some I think some folks were

Putting a little too much pressure on someone who isn’t a middle of the order like Thumper that is never who he’s been and sure he he there were some situations down the stretch where he was not particularly clutch and I think if you’re looking at that the guy you’d

Like him to be coming through in those spots um but you know this is a guy who when he signed you know coming over from Atlanta uh coming off that season he was a 6.4 win player with a 116 WRC plus now it was 104 last year for the Cubs uh but

It’s not as though we’re talking about a 130 140 WRC plus guy so I think keeping expectations for who a player is is always a a good idea the the pressure the organization puts on them because of the roster they built around them doesn’t really matter there’s nothing

The player can do about that but what I do want to ask you is uh his best years in Atlanta now obviously the covid shorten year in 2020 is only 60 games but of course he’s Dan Swanson so in all 60 of them uh 115 WRC plus

20226 WRC plus uh when you look at 2022 hit for a 277 average only 244 in uh 2023 with the Cubs so if we’re talking about areas for guys to improve how does Dansby look more like the player again even though this is sort of just an incremental Improvement how does

He look more like the 2023 version and I guess the the Craig Council question of it all we know Dansby is a guy unless he’s hurt he wants to play he wants to start there was a lot of discussion though down the stretch uh especially because at times you know there was you

Know maybe he was dinged up everybody is but you assume he may be playing do you think it it would have behooved them to give him a rest even if it was just occasionally and do you think Craig Council might be more the type to say

Hey like we have someone who can play really good Shortstop on this team like take a breather for one day every two weeks please I don’t know the answer to that I people are goingon to point to the fatigue issue that the bullpen had and apply that to Dan Swanson but he

Took time off when he was on the I because of his heel Bruce in July and I believe towards the back end of that month as well I’m not sure I’m not going to speak on a player’s uh desire to play every single day that’s what makes that

Player tick I have no idea what I look at when I look at dansby’s profile and you mentioned how do you get him back to 2022 when he had a high batting average now there’s different types of stories you can tell about a players offensive profile but the story of Dan B Swanson

Is one of consistency a 325 w last season yes it was lower than 337 in the previous year but the actual batted ball quality has not changed over the course of the last five seasons it’s all within an expected range so even though he may

Be off by you know a hundredth of a decimal point in terms of WBA it’s the ability to at least put yourself into position where a few bloop based hits fall and you have the power that’s consistent consant 20 25 home runs to offset some of the randomness that might

Go your way or may not go your way as well now if you look at how Dan Swanson has progressed over over his career it makes me wonder how he’s going to age we talked about this when the Cubs signed him on paper danp swansson looks like a hitter I don’t really care

For and what I mean by that is low contact rate and Mild to medium power 202 home runs to me when I first see those numbers it worries me as he ages that the power will go down and because he has a natural tendency to whiff if he

Does not sustain the high batting average the value is below League average and I do think there is some actual uh reality in the expectation the and to be as a hitter he will as a he’ll be the best defensive shorts up in the league till he’s 80 probably I was going

To say 90 years old but take 80 yeah but now you start peeling back the layers and where I’m wrong with Dan B Swanson I think is that Dan B Swanson’s intention with those peripherals and the willingness to give up contact should be included in how you think about how he

Ages now you look at the second half of last season July and August he had a whiff rate of 33% now look at that July rate that was when he was hitting home runs like crazy now if you go previous to that a April May and June we talked about Dan

Swanson’s contact being the highest it’s been in like six years I was like oh this is great because he’s showing the capacity to adapt and I even said I’m willing to sacrifice power if this is what Dany profile is Dan profile is going to look like so that’s that was

His trajectory so he started the season off high contact July accepted the whiffs fast forward to August worst month of the season last year when the WRC plus was around sub 80 right worst wor all season long that whiff rate also the worst was even though it just uh

Followed his best offensive month from a power perspective now he finished September about a 95 WRC Plus in the month of September he finished that month with his highest monthly contact rate of the season over 80% six percentage points higher than League average that would be about the 75th

Percentile I believe uh if you look at the entire league that’s the intention to change so he put forth the intention to make more contact and he succeeded now did he get the offensive numbers he wanted no he did not but he succeeded in making more contact that

Suggests to me he has the ability to adapt and do what he wants to do and at some point as he goes through these different adjustment phases he will try things and he may accomplish those goals and the results May not align with what he wanted but you know he’s capable of

Making those adjustments so for me when I’m worried about his contact rate and his power profile what I’m considering is that he is doing this on purpose and there could be a point in time where as he continues to successfully adjust he finds the happy profile of what he wants

To look like and then 10 more seconds I’ll throw it back to you if you look at what he what he’s doing during the offseason in his like new podcast and his new YouTube channel which everyone should look at there was one clip which caught my attention because I remember

Watching him throughout the entire second half and I was wondering man like pitchers are eating him up I’m breaking pitches low and away and he was getting eaten up by change UPS as well and there was times where he was like pulling everything to the foul side and he

Looked off balance and I’m like ah here comes that slatter loow and away again and sure enough pulled off it and then in his YouTube video he’s talking to his batting coach saying that there’s a point in his mechanics where he feel like he can’t reach over and he fouls

Everything off I’m like oh my God that’s exactly what we were looking at during the second half and so his offseason routine was centered at the start to fixing that problem that’s the type of awareness I’m talking about and the ability to make those adjustments so all

This is to say I’m confident in Danby Swanson’s profile in the future but to your point earlier he’s not going to be that middle of the order guy he never has been that middle of the order guy I think you can count on from being an offensive producer well luckily Brendan

As we all wanted the Cubs went out and they added multiple middle of the order bats so that Dansby doesn’t have to hit hold on I’m getting something in my earpiece they didn’t they did not do that oh this should been a h this should have been a happy segment why are you

Ending this with a bad segment well I do I mean that is I mean it sort of brings it all together I’m try I’m trying to it I you know I’m curious how Craig Council lines things up um you know I’m trying to think back of you know he’s had to

Work with some less than Stellar groups in Milwaukee and they’ve found a way to make that work but I do think that sort of Highlights part of the frustration right like the problem the problem is like when you start thinking of those uh Milwaukee lineups like I forget half

Their guys on that team sometimes and they were always successful that kind of points to that ability to at least have selectively good match for his guys at the moment that is what our boy jet Hoyer is banking on so Craig better deliver on that um the other thing I was

Going to say though is yeah and you know people want results but I do think that the one thing we know about Dansby is that if you felt frustrated with him especially on you know on offense in that second half I promise you he was more frustrated than you were yeah

And again people want results great he’s working hard he gets paid a lot of money to do it I know that’s going to fall on you know flat ears I think for some folks but I I do believe as you said he is the type of person that says this is

How guys were getting me out and I can’t let it happen again so yeah I’m working with my coach and we’re gonna fix it I do trust him to do that and and be the leader in that way uh but you know look like the little bit of a difference like

It it it he is the type of player he’s so good he he’s similar to other players we talk about he is so good as a defensive player that the difference between him being you know that slightly below League average in the second half versus closer to where he was the rest

Of the year it it change he’s he’s that much V more valuable of a player it is a sign even though it seems like a small amount it’s a significant value for someone like him it is and I look at him as I look at Kyle Hendrick in that

Hendrick knows what he needs to do when he’s not performing well he knows the adjustments he needs to make and more times than not Kyle makes those adjustments successfully instantly Dansby does the same thing where there were times maybe in June and July where he was not happy with his power profile

And that’s what preceded that seven home run stretch in like 12 games so you have to when you think about these players the way I think about some hitters is what what can this guy do to offset some of the decline that naturally is going

To come a year or two years from now so if I don’t have that confidence that he can do that then I don’t want to sign that specific player and I think there’s some uh worry and there was worry with certain players in the past on the Cubs

Including someone like you know jav bayas who had these extreme downturns and these extreme suggestions that he may not be able to adjust uh and I think for someone like Dan B Swanson where you show those extreme times of adjustment it does suggest over the course of his

Career that he’s going to Showcase that again yeah absolutely so uh hitting the hour mark here I think we can kind of start to wrap up I again we’ll we’ll touch on we will grade the off seon when everyone has signed and the team is

Really on paper and we know what this is going to look like um you know now that we’re at the end and you know we can’t really belabor it I I’ll admit to you all I’m I’m pretty frustrated I think you can feel that um and I feel a lot of

The frustration from from the group I think at this moment they have fallen short of what I wanted them to do in this off season and when the bar right now and and we’re not talking about the projections as some sort of gospel but just using it as a sort of guide when

The leader in your division is projected around 84 wins and that’s not you for the Chicago Cubs no that just isn’t going to cut it and and that is with the modest I think goals we set for them coming into this off season Brendan so sure I I hope that

Michael Bush is the player that all of those Prospect writers hoped he could be when he wasn’t getting playing time for the Dodgers I hope that PCA gets his shot and he adjusts at the plate and he’s the star we’ve all been waiting for as we’ve watched him rock it up these

Prospect rankings sha IM managa is as advertised same guy he was in Japan fits right in Middle to top of the rotation it’s great the Bullen no fatigue Craig counil manages the hell out of it and they are so good in those close games somebody plays

Third base and takes it and develops and grows and Christopher from Morel is the the player the The Hitter we believe seya is the second half version of himself that’s what I hope happens sounds like a lot though doesn’t it so we will break it down when it’s over and

I certainly hope that there’s more coming um but we’ll see this is at the moment the team we have to work with uh I I just wanted to add that in the end I know we said it at the beginning but I I definitely just don’t want anybody to

And and some folks Maybe may be down for it but I’ve explained already like it has been too long since this team was winning winning consistently doing things making noise in the playoffs and a a real threat to bring us what we all want which is a championship and I know

Some people get tired of hearing about the most expensive tickets or family game day experience this or that they’re valued and for but they are that’s the team we root for and I know you’ve used this phrase a lot Brendan uh but raising the expectations the the conversation we had today is

Unacceptable to me and I hope that Cody Bellinger’s walking through that door maybe more but the the the idea that we are trying to figure out how to internally get better after not making the playoffs and all the talk about how disappointing that was I am frustrated

With that and if you disagree and you’re ready for the youth movement whatever I’m not telling you how to fan but I’m a paying customer I know a lot of you are too whether you go to one game 162 doesn’t matter whether you just watch it on on TV or listen to Pat

Hughes on the radio everybody can feel however about this organization as they want that is how I feel about this organization right now in my I’m not going to be labor this but how that’s today’s uh you know peewee’s Playhouse secret I do I do want to say this

Because it really it frustrates me but it more so disappoints me I’m really disappointed in how baseball has operated itself over the past four years I’m disappointed how the lockout was operated I’m disappoint in how covid was handled by the owners and the commissioner statements I’m very disappointed in just the the league

Itself I’m especially disappointed when the discourse over this offseason about the player signing late and how that’s not affecting the game I I take that a little personally how the front off how the front offices and the agents are acting is within the boundaries of the sport and the rules

And they should act like this to get the best deal however from the fans perspective this is enormously detrimental to getting new fans I put myself in a young fans perspective I put myself back in 2006 when the Cubs signed alons Sorano in December I was ecstatic

Could not wait for February for spring training to roll around I wanted to go to all those spring training games I was interested in the Cubs way more than I was in 2005 and 2006 I look at opportunities in January February and maybe March of these guys not signing as

Missed opportunities to gain new fans and retain young fans so I wholeheartedly disagree with the notion that this is not a big deal from other fans perspectives to me this is a really big deal in prohibiting the growth of the sport so I hope I don’t know how

This is going to work out in the next few years maybe on the new CBA but this has to change we cannot go into February’s with the majority of the market not being signed by these teams it’s bad for the sport the sport can’t afford Miss opportunities for growth

Especially when other leagues across uh the country are doing well NBA weeks after the finals you have the Vegas summer league going on the draft for the NFL we’re talking about the draft non-stop but we have this four to five month Gap in baseball and everyone’s twiddling their thumbs and the

Excitement across the sport is completely absent going into sprem training and you and I have to talk about this it’s awful for the sport yeah I agree I don’t know what the fix is you know I know that there’s some disagreements to you know if you imposed

A a period or this or that I I I’m not the commissioner I don’t get paid to and you know at least at the end of the decade we’re getting rid of Rob Manfred so that was good news on Thursday maybe Theo will take over I think let Theo

Take over I know he’s back with the Red Sox in that way now but by then maybe he’s ready to be the commissioner maybe we start throwing some competitive balance picks the Cubs way maybe reverse the kind of cardinals thing Theo gets in there and he says you know what I like

That the Cubs have been acting like a small Market team so we’re gon to give them the comp pick to finish up I’ll I’ll I’ll finish by saying you know when I express my frustration I would if this strategy works out for Jed this is the team

That’s it you know they they hold hard somebody’s willing to go you know over 200 million for Cody Bellinger they hold hard this is what it is of course I hope it works I’m a die hard Cubs fan first and foremost I always use the phrase I

Do not have dogs in the race I always cared about John Lester obviously but I don’t really care who is on the roster if they trade certain people if they maneuver around I just want them to win I just want the Chicago Cubs to win and

Go to Wrigley Field and watch a winning baseball team so if the strategy works great I’m going to be very happy I don’t mind admitting when I’m wrong about things there’s no stake in me being right or wrong I’m just a dumb fan with a hot dog and occasionally a beer at the

Game vibing along but I’m not I’m not happy with it and I wouldn’t bet on it and and that’s frustrating to me where I do want to end though because you brought it up I do just in terms of I we’re not talking about it because you

And I have a rule we only talk about the Cubs I do think you and I having to debate the situation the Bears are in would send the two of us into like a pych I really do you would have to check me into the nearest

Hospital I do not know I am like a fantasy football player I don’t I can’t I can’t even offer you really an opinion on what I think they should do but the discourse itself and the the stake in the decision just how massive a decision

It is I don’t I you and I usually agree on big stuff like that I think we might be aligned in what we would want them to do but I think the discuss would send us it’s just such a big decision I think the Cubs being in that spot would send

Us over the edge and the decision is going to be made the next like six to eight weeks not four and a half to five months after the season ends right so that that is where I hope the league adjust in the future Rob manin goodbye

In five years won’t miss you great Theo Epstein let’s see how much damage he can do before he’s out geez man yeah it’s just it’s just it’s it’s really awful that just it just it just irks me man and I see all the time in our replies

Too it’s like oh this is not that big of a deal because you guys are in you guys are in it you guys are just crazy fans you want something to talk about you see it in just the engagement I don’t want to engage with baseball right now and

I’m a dieh hard fan these are just wasted opportunities that’s what it is yeah I I I don’t I you know I think you could debate how serious it is or how important it is but I I do think having so many why risk it but why risk

It from a marketing and like League experience perspective no Advantage from growing the sport perspective yeah when you look at the list of like how good some of the players that are still available are and you have teams coming to camp and it it it doesn’t seem like something that certainly benefits the

League I I don’t know how it would every single action should have a benefit to Growing the game I don’t see how this benefits growing the game outside of players maybe getting more money but that’s even debatable in and of itself this makes no sense to me yeah so I

Don’t know they’re not going to fix it now and we remain on the ready for any of those Boris clients to sign and some of these still top free agents to come off the board really the top guys some of them I mean not shotani obviously but

These are really good players that are still sitting there Nots man it’s Nots so as always the chgo Cubs team will be ready if these guys sign like I said I would imagine that if Cody Bellinger signs anywhere we will break it down whether that is the Cubs or somewhere

Else because that is relevant to the Cubs and then of course if anybody else signs with the Cubs we will be on with an emergency podcast in some form or fashion as quickly as possible um I always like to say you for Council Dansby some of these other moves sha we

Were live in five minutes 10 minutes um so I know everybody has a lot of places to get their breaking news or discussion uh but do want to throw out there that the chgo Cubs team on the CH Sports YouTube page will be ready to break it

Down if you are ready for an instant reaction we will be there for you I know Ryan’s out in spring training so please do follow him uh and check out all ch.com for all of his writing and reports from spring training and the rest of the crew um tune in next week

Have some good stuff for you uh Brendan and I will be back with you next Friday and maybe sooner than that I don’t know uh as always appreciate you guys sticking with it I know that you know to to Brendan’s point doesn’t make for the most exciting off season um you guys

Have listened to especially if you listen to multiple podcasts or read different blogs and articles you’ve heard heard a lot about the same topics kind of a lot so we appreciate you guys sticking in there you know we try to make the episodes as as interesting and

Unique and different as we possibly can um would be nice if the Cubs made that a little easier for us so uh we will talk to you again soon as always we appreciate your support for the chgo Cubs podcast and everything going on at chg sport we will talk to you again soon

And as always go Cubs [Applause] we all sitting like the mayor