Genesis Invitational PGA Tour Preview and One-and-Done golf picks!

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All right we’re back talking golf PGA Tour another stop signature event Genesis Invitational and of course we’re going to give our picks our analysis and one and done options between myself Jared smalla and Hall of Famer Jan Stevenson before we do that though I want to start the broadcast off

With uh this little clip from last week the the guy that pops to me and youve you mentioned him a few minutes ago on that showing right now at 150 is is is Nick Taylor oh in the mix sure here and is is just just playing good

Golf you know won a won a tournament last year so I think I think Nick Taylor at 150 I think that that’s too long for him yeah that’s uh course maybe he just wasn’t very good at this golf course because he just wasn’t all that very

Good up until uh last year I think that’s right I think that all right so yeah we did talk about the winner that was actually up to 170 to one uh on last week’s show and a matter of fact uh let’s also check out this is another

Reason why you want to uh subscribe and follow Jared at smola golf bats because you can see here this is Jared’s final card uh this is uh Saturday he you see this Saturday night excuse me Wednesday night February 7th so he puts out his final card for the week and here are his

Uh of course these are all the big Bargains here uh and then look at this one by the way Cameron young who almost did it had a really good showing and then Nick Taylor at the bottom at 170 to one so awesome job uh Jared and

This is why even though this wasn’t in your picks this is why we always talk about this it’s not always about our picks of the week it’s about breaking down other key players other long shots which we talked about towards the end of the show uh which is why you got to

Listen and watch the entire show because we talk about a lot of different players to keep an eye on including Nick Taylor last week okay so let’s get into it and uh let’s see the odds where are we so Scotty Sheffer once again is the uh overwhelming uh he’s the overwhelming

Favorite it’s 6 to1 650 to1 as you can see there okay this is DraftKings and he down Rory there’s the Gap to 10 to one and you got havan and chafl and the same old you know everybody everybody there as I go through here let’s see anybody

That sticks out odds wise I’m just going to throw out some that uh I think are a little bit eh Sam Burns 20 to one you know that’s a little low Adam Scott as we’re going to talk a lot about him unfortunately his odds have dropped to

28 to one uh then you get some bonus odds you know WI M Clark is still 35 to1 Matt Fitzpatrick cam young are 35 to1 zalot Taurus is 50 to1 Jason D 50 to one so uh here you get some other here we got some of the other straa you

Mentioned in one of your stats he’s 80 to one uh let’s see anybody else that sticks out here got some long shots obviously that we’re going to go over later Ricky is just off to an awful start he’s at 130 to1 you know when he doesn’t play well

At Phoenix that he is struggling tiger at 180 to1 in his first go around uh for 2024 so there you go now let’s uh break into it and uh we’re going to get our one and duns too and by the way Jan’s one and duns I already have hers so uh

She she actually gave four this week so she is still uh trying to figure out which one or two she’s going with I’m not sure if she has two contests uh we only have one but Jan is breaking it down to Max hom uh Kurt kittama who I picked up on our fantasy

League this week uh Scott uh Xander chafl or Adam Scott so those are her four options for one and done let’s uh go through the field now all right so let’s start at the top with the three Sheffer maory havland and if I’m going to pick one of these three to tell you

The truth I might go with havland I’m definitely not taking Rory I’m just until Rory wins early and plays well early on the PG tour I just why should I take him once again he comes out of the gate at Pebble and is 66th that was so

Weird too because he gets off to such a great start at Pebble he was the leader at like five under six under early on and then you know you blink and he’s even par and he it just it was incredible how quickly things change he

He he’s he’s got three top 10 here he’s got four top 20s two top fives but he’s never won and then Sheffer has played here five times he’s never had a top five uh havin meanwhile has three top 20s out of three three trips two of

Those are top fives and I’m getting 14 to one almost double actually of sheffler that’s why if I’m taking one of those three I would just take havland I’m not taking any of the three but I would take havland yeah I didn’t seriously consider any of these three guys um sheffler the

Poter continues to be he’s super frustrated about it you could see it he he let out a big F bomb one of those days at Waste Management after he missed the short one and he actually ended up gaining Strokes putting for the week at waste management but doesn’t he always

Missed at Waste Management no Waste Management yes yeah um he just he missed too many putts on on Sunday so it’s tough to bet someone at that number um when when you don’t trust the putter Victor havin worries me because he struggled at Pebble and then he withdrew

From Waste Management agement and there was I don’t think he said it but there was a report that he withdrew to like kind of go go back and work on his game um so maybe maybe he figured something out maybe he comes out firing on

Thursday we’ll see if I had if I had to pick one of these three I I would lean towards Rory at the number I know Pebble Beach was disappointing I think Pebble Beach is is not the best course for his game I think this course is nice for his

Game um you know with the driving distance with the longer irons that you need um so I if you made me one it be Rory but I don’t like any of these three guys at their numbers all right and then uh we’ve got shaay Thomas morawa at 16

To1 and uh you know what I’m going to go ahead and Flash our picks because we’re going to start all right so there were our picks so uh Justin is at the top of your list uh and why not uh he’s been the hot name on this uh channel uh since we started

Talking uh about the 2024 season at Sony even though he didn’t play it but he’s 16 to1 just like morawa and chafl uh he’s continuing to be uh hot seven straight top 12 four of those top fives he just needs to have just that one

Round that just puts him over the top he needs that 60 he needs that 62 he needs that something that just puts him at top of the leaderboard so he could stay there he needs the one hot putting round which you know we saw wind Clark used to

Win we saw Nick Taylor have multiple hot putting rounds to win last week um yeah you know nothing Thomas did last week would put me off him like you said he finished 12 he gained across the board he did actually gain putting not not by

A lot but he did he was seventh best in that field T to Green so the driver and the irons remained really good you know if you just look at Strokes game total for this year in 2024 he’s second best in the field Scotty Sheffer is first Justin Thomas is second and then

Thomas’s last six appear Es at this event he has two miscuts and a 20 but he also has a Ninth Place a second place and a sixth place so he has been a bit volatile but he has the three top 10 finishes including a second what I like

The best and why I’m betting him why I might end up using Justin Thomas in one and done as well is that he has gained putting in four of those last six events basically the four times he did not miss the cut at Riviera he gained Strokes

Putting POA is his best putting surface so um just kind of again fingers crossed that he has a good putting Le because if he does and the ball striking remains where it’s been I I think he’s going to win yeah he’s gonna win sooner sooner or

Later and I was I was noticing on our in our league that uh what is it like 30% of the contestants have already taken him so kind of early in the season but there remember last week we you know that was a big deal you know so you got

Got your wish and he did yeah he he did end up being the most popular pick last week and he didn’t win and that was big didn’t win yep so yeah in our league big surprise but the the leader only has one win if the leader would had two wins I’d

Be like what the hell is this guy smoking give me that but all right yeah there were some guys that there were some guys that hit Windam Clark right it must be yeah who else could it be yeah think I’m I’m a little bit surprised that nobody at a left field

Took Nick Taylor to tell you the truth yeah yeah you were thinking in our contest where there’s thousands of people that a couple would have but yeah no one did yeah I think Thomas will be semi- poopular this week but I think um with all the big names in the field I

Don’t think he’ll be most popular don’t he might not even get to like 10% ownership so I think he’s a a good one and done play this week okay and then you got morawa and chafl now morawa uh look the only thing that scares you is

His length but uh he started his first two appearances combined two under par his last two appear appearances it combined 28 under par sixth last year second the year before that he’s coming off a 14th at Pebble so yeah uh morawa is definitely somebody to keep an eye on

For sure but that is the only that is the you know because we have to nitpick the the because there’s so many quality players to choose from so the nitpicking with morawa is the length and the odds yeah um and you know he he’s still

In consideration for me if if I had to pick another in this group between morawa and Xander would be morawa for me yeah you know he’s he’s not a long hitter he’s not short he’s like average he’s like two or average length by and morawa might be the best long iron

Player in the world so you know even though he’s a bit shorter you give him those iron shots from you know 175 to 200 he’s excellent on those I I definitely think he can win here he Mora is another guy who for whatever reason has putted well on these greens the last

Two appearances you know generally not someone you think of as good putter but his last two times here he’s gained Strokes on the green on the greens big reason why he’s hanging in there but uh still going to be hard for him to capture a win here he would break a lot

Of uh Trends but then again this whole season we’ve had a lot of Trends being broken so he wouldn’t be the craziest one uh shawl meanwhile has only has only got one top 10 in six appearances so therefore why would we take him especially when his odds are similar to

The two guys that just look a lot better than him coming in here in JT and morawa and what’s Al keep in mind that how about this for these three guys chafl has not won since the 22 Scottish open Klay who we’re going to talk about next

At 18 to1 has not won since the 2022 BMW Championship and Justin Thomas has not won since the PGA Championship in 2022 so uh these are three guys that each especially shl and Klay their odds are pretty low every week and yet they haven’t won for almost we’re going on

Almost two years so that is something that you definitely have to keep in mind and by the way sheffler for a guy that is six to one every week he has one win since the players last year and I was hero why why would you take a guy that’s

Six to one every week when he’s got one win during the really the real season I mean yeah that I mean you know the numbers say he should have won five times but between that so I think that’s why you the Bucks aren’t going to give

You a break on him um yeah it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s honestly sad that he hasn’t won more considering how how good the uh TD green play has been he’ll put it together though he’ll one he’ll have a run he’ll have one of those runs where

He wins like four out to five he just will he just and he better soon before this yeah so goes away yes so again so for one and done I do think sheffler is in play just because of the prize pool I’m I’m Gonna Save him for Florida I’m e

I’m either going to use him at Bay Hill or at the Players um just I think you know he’s obviously won he’s won both of those events right he did win Bay Hill yep a couple years ago and I just think again you know those those have the the

High price pools too so I’m think I’m Gonna Save sheffler for one of those two uh can’t lay again so he’s 18 to one so is H and oar so uh you have wait a second did I hear that uh is it AAR now because I heard on

The Telecast that he actually told the the broadcaster how he wants people to PR pronounce his name I think I think he’s I think he wants oberg oh he wants o Berg I think oberg is I think don’t hold me to that it keeps changing yeah

All right now I’m really screwed up all right I’ll I’ll get that confirmation just just call him ludvig yeah ludvig is f so anyway uh but I know you didn’t see it but uh he’s my top pick so I haven’t taken him yet and I said I was going to

Wait until he got some you know events under his belt against the big boys and he did and he almost captured Pebble I think might he might have if they would have played the final round so I also have him high on my list for one and

Done this week uh he might be at the top of my list as of today so I think this is the perfect time to jump all over him and he’s trending perfectly you know look he hasn’t played here before that’s the crutch we talked about the experience Factor but when you get these

Special players these young players like that it really usually doesn’t matter too much that they haven’t played here or there because they haven’t played here or there anywhere I mean they’re just new to a lot of places and they still can go out and and win at a

Location it’s almost like a major venue most of these guys haven’t played at this event now that’s what they have the advantage over him they’ve played here but other than that and he’s just playing lights out yeah could have won Pebble if they played around for was right in the mix

At Tori if he didn’t miss you know multiple putts inside five feet he could have won Tori and to Tori is obviously a good um you know correlating course here not that they’re totally the same but they’re both you know long courses poag green so I do think if you look at you

Know guys who played well at Tor that could be a good pointer for guys who are gonna play well here so yeah I mean ludvig winning would break some Trends but he seems like a guy who’s who’s gonna break quite a few Trends in his career yeah and and we mentioned this

Two weeks ago at Pebble that this would be he he fits the way the season’s going because he should break some we’re having Trends broken every week why wouldn’t he fit in perfectly to that uh by the way 10 of the last 13 winners at this event played at the Farmers Insurance

Open okay didn’t have to win didn’t have to play well just play there so that just shows you that that does come into play all right so can’t lay two tough fives out of six um so I would was thinking about him but um and he’s starting to play the little mean coming

Up the 11th at Pebble he was struggling for a little bit so he’s somebody that but again I I just I had other options and hom look this was an event we Circle every year for Homer well the last couple years and he’s been lights out

Four straight years in a row he’s a 21 champ he was runnerup last year uh but the problem is the last two events he’s been 66th and he’s missed a cut and that is a little unusual he usually does not come into this event this kind of out of

Sync somehow and that’s the kind of reason why I guessed that both of us have stayed away yeah um and Y H’s lost Strokes off the te in each of the last two events he’s lost Strokes on approach in three straight now the approach has been negative point1 negative point5 and

Negative point1 so he’s you know just barely lost strok it’s not the irons have been horrible but it’s just it’s a rare I mean you have to go back you have to go back to to Midway through 2022 to find the last time he he lost Strokes on

Approach in at least three straight events I mean it’s interesting I I I wonder if H is gonna be less popular than we think in one andone because of that um which could make him an interesting oneandone play um Klay is the other guy if I don’t use Justin

Thomas I think I’m gonna go Klay one and done I think yeah I think the and he worries me a bit to because he’s lost Strokes on approach in each of his last two events now one of them was at Pebble those that’s only two measured events

Because they don’t have shot tracker at at spy glass it’s it was just the two rounds at um Pebble Beach and he he did come 11th there so he was coming off a good finish like you said he’s been excellent here he’s a good POA putter he

Has kind of the all-around game that you need to win here um so and again he’s he’s that you know higher end player I think you want to be using with with the prize pool pool here so um K’s kind of the other guy I’m I’m considering for

One and done yeah we’ll have to communicate then uh because obviously Justin is uh one of my uh potential options for one and done two um and since we’re so close to deciding whether we take him or not we definitely don’t want to take him the same week if we can

Avoid it the odds will be uh better off for us if we can um take another player because again we do have other options so we’ll see okay uh another player at this range we just mentioned before Sam Burns 20 to1 that’s the only reason why

That’s the main reason that I I can’t do it because he’s been so inconsistent here he was third when he had to breakout year three years ago um and that looked really good but then uh the last two years he’s missed a cut with a combined 10 over par it’s like but but

He’s got six top 15s in his last seven with four top 10 two top fives third last week so yeah uh keep this in mind last year he came into the event this week’s event after he had an 11th and a sixth so he was playing well last year coming into

This event and still missed a cut by five over the 20 to1 is what did it for me I was like yeah I just if he was y 28 25 even 30 I’d consider it more but I can’t do it at 20 yeah and he he he did

Open in that 28 to 30 range like first thing Monday morning and I guess he’s been a popular bet cuz he’s way down to you know 20 or 22 I think he’s a bit overvalued at that price so he’s not in consideration for me he burns is another

Guy um I’m gonna get on him as we get into Florida because you know he is a really good Bermuda putter PO is actually his worst putting service now he’s still a good POA putter but he’s not as good on POA as he is on Bon

Especially not as good as he is on Bermuda so when we get to these Florida courses valire he obviously has dominated but I think even you know the players he could be in consideration API he could be in consideration so hopefully Burns Waits uh a couple more weeks before getting that win because

Because I do want to start betting him because he’s playing really well it’s too hot right now yeah all right now out of the last the next 11 players on the odds board I’ll just quickly show it on the screen see here here was where we

Are right now okay so so out of those out of those next 11 we’ve got a bunch of them on our picks so um let’s go with two players that are uh next up which are on both on my uh part of my pi

Jordan spe a 25 to1 and Adam Scott a 28 to1 I just could not not take Adam Scott especially since you didn’t take him I don’t like the fact that his odge have dropped 28 to1 that’s the thing that scared me off almost scared me off but I

Have to take him because of the fact that just take a look right now not only does Adam Scott made 14 of 15 Cuts here with 10 top 20s seven top 10s five top fives two runner ups and two wins but this is like the best stretch that he’s

Had playing golf in a long time time six straight top 20s five top 10 one top five eighth last week that’s worldwide um so yeah I mean if and that’s why he has to which he is under consideration for me at one and done because if I’m

Ever going to take Adam Scott one and done this year and am I not but if I was this would be the week that you should take him if anybody out there is considering him this would be the best week to take them um and then back to

Spe uh even though Jordan doesn’t have like a great resume here he has six top 30s and 11 appearances he did not make the cut last year but as I mentioned I think a couple weeks ago Jordan in the in the Signature Events last year even

Though again he missed the cut here last year he he has finishes of of second fourth fifth and sixth so he’s played really well most of the time when he missed a cut he missed a cut I Believe by one stroke last year so it wasn’t

Like he had a really bad week last week um and we know Jordan could be that type of guy um you know he could be off his game every once in a while even at places where he’s done really well but I like the fact that he’s coming in

Playing well eight straight top 40s four top 10 one top five six less week speed had the most spean tournament ever last week just the amount of Strokes he gained around the green and putting he chipped in a few times made a few long P just a classic speed

Performance I I think he I this should be a good course for him I know there’s a lot of correlation too between Riviera and Augusta as far as winners you know you look at you know John Rah obviously won both last year there’s a lot of other crossover Bubba Watson has won at

Both places and spe obviously has been awesome at at Augusta so this should be a good spot for him I did consider spe as a betat yeah Adam Adam Scott just got B down too low for me he he opened at 40 to1 on Monday morning at 40 to1 I almost

Pulled the trigger I was like ah 40 to1 for Scott I I didn’t pull the trigger within an hour he was down to 30 to1 he keeps sinking and it makes it makes a ton of sense like you said awesome course history he’s playing really well

Um guy just ha hasn’t won in a long time and it’s tough for me to bet someone at that number that that hasn’t won in so long especially for one and done because as good as a as an option he is there going to be a lot of people that are

Going to take him agree and huge with a huge prize pool yeah I don’t know if I want Adam Scott with a big prize pool so yeah all right now we go to a couple other guys that are on our picks you have Windam Clark he’s 35 to1 you also

Have Gala he’s 35 to1 and I have Fitzpatrick at 35 to1 so now we’re getting into some good Bargains here and I just wonder how much longer wendam Clark is going to be around 35 to1 uh but here’s the thing though and until we

See it this week we do have to keep this in mind if you take out the 60 he hasn’t really done much at all this year he just hasn’t his results have all been in the 40s and the 30s and that’s because he has had he had the one great

Round which happened at the perfect time he stole the win but we know how talented He Is We and it’s just and it’s looking like this could be a huge year for him and he’s sitting there at 35 to1 it’s like such it’s so tempting that it’s almost like

You can’t not take him at 35 to1 yeah know that’s fair about you know the one excellent round I think he is a Val even last week I bet him last week so I was tracking him closly bad round one excellent rounds two and three and kind of disappointed again in round four

So like yeah he does need to kind of string four good rounds together or at least one you know uh yeah 60 to win these but yeah I mean I just I I I just think his odds continue to be way I know too high that’s why I keep betting him I

Mean so if you look at the last 12 months players in this field he’s seventh best in the field Strokes gain total in that stretch he’s won won two elevated events and a major two of those wins came in California which we are again here you know he won at Pebble and

He won at LACC last year po was his best putting surface he’s he’s actually again I looked at um who the best Putters have been on these greens over the last five years Windham Clark has been the seventh best putter on these greens um he’s fifth in this field and driving distance

We talked about that being important he’s 12th best in this field Strokes G approach he’s ninth best on those long par fours we talked about and in three trips here he’s gone 17th eighth and 33rd and that’s was like that was before he really broke out he’s a better player

Now so I think it’s the course that he likes so again I just think the numberers too high and not a bad one andone option as well because nobody’s gonna take them yep so all right and then you also have theala and theala uh has played here three times he’s his

Results have been better each time including six last year at 11 under the par and he’s also been trending in the right direction that’s a good combination uh one that I’m going to repeat in a little bit with another player or two but in his last four

Events uh actually in his last two 20th and fifth um so yeah uh we also have to keep in mind that he started the year with the runner up at Century so this has been a strong start for theala and you’re getting 35 to one yep just

Another guy riding the hot forms tagala is sixth in this field inro gain total in 2024 um he’s a California guy um PO is his best putting surface like you said sixth place here last year that included uh fourth best in the field in Strokes G

Approach he was sixth best TI green um and again going back to that uh longer par fours with difficult to hit Fairways siah was eth on that list so I think you know again this should be a good course for him he’s really figured out the

Driver too I think one of our first shows of the year we talked about how his his driver had sort of been an issue just gets wonky from time to time but um sahith has now gained Strokes off the te in four of his five events this season

So if he can continue driving it you know well enough um we we we saw Waste Management last week he can he can get really hot with the irons um so that’s kind of what I’m hoping for this week all right um now my pick at 35 to1 is

Matt Fitzpatrick and the same thing with with with Clark and thwa these are really good numbers and that’s really why I did it if he was 25 to1 20 to1 I wouldn’t take it but I’m getting 35 to1 with a world class player who’s played

Here three times he has two top 30s he has one fifth place finish he’s trending in the right direction um so yeah there are some really good combinations there that I like of but most importantly is the fact that I’m getting 35 to one yep

Agree I think it’s a good number I like Fitzpatrick on tougher golf courses which this is he was second on that list of uh longer par fors with tough to hit Fairway so it’s definitely a good spot for for Fitz uh by the way another 35

To1 uh player to keep an eye on is Cam young and I I was close to putting him on the list I just couldn’t do it because he has only played here twice so that’s the negative but 20th last year and second the year before that that’s a

Combined 22 under par and he’s coming off at eighth which uh he actually I I believe I didn’t look at the stats but I believe he had a good putting uh performance at Phoenix because that’s what I heard and and and look from what I saw they didn’t really show him a lot

Which I was disappointed in by the way I know we didn’t have time and we still don’t have time to talk about it but the coverage on Saturday was a joke yes everything was about 16 and it was driving me freaking up the wall so I

Yeah I was talking to my buddies about it I said it was the worst coverage of the season so far yeah it’s terrible the amount of the amount of irrelevant shots we were seeing on 16 yes while not seeing the leaders but and the two guys standing there and you know like like

It’s some sort of big halftime show with the Super Bowl or something it’s just so ridiculous I do I do like kizner he’s been good on the mic Kevin K yeah and they need it they need good analysts yeah C cam young did gain five Strokes putting last week also was really good

Off the tea as he always is I and I did consider him I was basically between cam young young siah and Windam Clark and you know picking two of those three to round out the card I I just legitimately have like serious concerns about cam Young’s ability to win at this point I

Mean we’ve seen it multiple times even even on Sunday like yep he was right there in the mix um and he was playing so well the first three rounds he had done great job he’ set himself up perfectly and then he just lost his game yeah so like you know

If he was 50 to one I feel like that’d be baked in more but at 35 to one um that’s kind of why I didn’t get there but like you said he’s played well here and his game definitely fits the course and keep in mind he was third in Dubai

And he had like a three or four stroke lead I believe after the second day and lost that and that’s Dubai on know DP T DP that that’s not PJ Tour all right um oh one quick thing I don’t know who it was the analyst the broadcaster who did it but

Whoever was broadcasting the golf event I would have a serious talking to him maybe a producer whispered in his ear and told him to say it but the idiot gave the score of the Super Bowl now if you are going into the Super Bowl coverage and you know it’s a bad thing

Because they’re watching the Super Bowl but you know what there are people who are watching golf who are probably recording the Super Bowl you idiot do not give the score so that is a reason why I think next year they might do uh What uh what

Was it the week before was it yeah no two weeks Pebble uh Pebble Tori right to Tori went Tori went to Saturday wasn’t it I think it was Tor yeah yeah because that was the Conference Championship okay yeah they might they might have to do that they might have to so they they

They probably should just be safe I mean they got screwed obviously with the frost delays and the rain delay for that to go into the Super Bowl but they probably should do that to be safe all right now one of my last picks I I I have to do it because he’s

50 to one he started off at 35 to1 will zelot Tores really now come on now check this out in his first uh event first appearance five overp par his last three appearances four under par six under par 13 under par he keeps getting better every time he plays here fourth last

Year what is that combined with in his last three events since he’s returned in all three events since he’s returned Miss cut 34th 133 he keeps getting better I love the combination just similar to theala and I’m getting 50 to one so I love that I have to take

Him yeah I think ludvig oberg and will zel tus will win the Genesis in their career so if you want to just bet them every time we come here I think you’ll end up making a profit um I wasn’t gonna bet will at 35 but like you said he’s

Drifting he’s 50 now I think people just aren’t betting him by by Wednesday he might be 60 I might have to pull the trigger on that I I don’t think he’s like I I don’t think he’s quite there yet I don’t think he’s quite should he’s getting he shouldn’t be but he’s getting

Close and like again at to one that’s different it’s starts to become interesting to just take a shot that you know he is because I look at the numbers and even at Farmers he came 13th like the approach play it was good it wasn’t like vintage will tus where he’s like

You know top five in the field approach I think I think he’s getting there um I’m hoping he he Peaks for the Masters all right very good what are his odds I got him at 40 I think 40 or 42 all right and then uh my the only other

Pick that we that uh I did my my actual pick and our combined picks and once again it’s one of your boys 100 to one Luke list Luke list I I I considered him as well yeah why not he won Sanderson Farms in October he ended

The year strong five top 25s in his last six he’s been a little bit cold so far to start the season but he’s made cuts and once remember he also won Farmers Insurance back in 2022 uh you just talked about the similarities of the two golf courses and

His top two PGA results uh actually came between late January and late February so that’s exactly where we’re at right here he’s got enough of the power game also so yeah he only has two TP 25s and eight appearances here but we’re looking for another player from you know outside

The range that nobody’s thinking about and if it’s going to be one of those weeks just like it’s been all season then why not luk list right so in I’m trying to find his his last appearance here he was unbelievable T the green could not make

A putt which is you know kind of the story of Luke list I’m trying to see what year was it last year or was it yeah yeah last year he came 29th he gained 11 Strokes on approach lost seven strokes putting which is absurd um now

He’s at you know he’s G he’s gained putting here three of what is it three of eight career appearances which you know isn’t great but he at least shown the ability to gain putting so yeah um he I I didn’t bet any long shots this week but list was the one I was

Considering at at a 100 to one well yeah I mean you have to with the long shots uh because you just have to the way things are going and so my top long shots outside of the actual pickup list um is another one of uh I I know you you

You talk about him more than I do even though we both made money on him a few years ago when he won a pebble but that’s Hogie our boy hogi uh because he’s got three top 20 three top 20s in his last four six at Pebble 17th last

Week and his top two PGA results all time were between mid January and mid-February he was also 14th year last year which was his best finish so it doesn’t have the power game but you’re getting over 100 to one I’m also looking at the 100 to one shot area for for um

My boy Taylor Moore uh I think he’s still being disrespected he started at 180 to1 uh he’s made nine straight cuts he’s starting the trend in the right direction and he does have enough of the power game uh so uh I believe yeah those were my uh

My top 100 to one or more long shots um no pun inted uh being more hogy oh the other two that were in the 80 to 90 to one range uh Harris English and Denny McCarthy again the the the the length is what uh took me out of betting them but

Uh as as far as my picks but I put money on them this week for sure especially English there’s something about I like the fact that when you take take a look at English last year in the Signature Events he actually played well he was second at Aral Palmer he was third at

Wells Fargo he was 12th here so he can play well in the big events two top 15s on this golf course including last year when he finished 12th at 8 under par he was also 10th in 2014 17th last week and four top 20s in his last seven including

10th Place finishes at the BMW and Sony so I think he’s playing well enough that he could be somebody to keep an eye on and McCarthy’s also done really well on the Signature Events and we talked about that a couple of weeks ago uh he’s finished um 14th 25th 8th 2nd and

Seventh in the Signature Events last year and he’s coming in with three straight top 30s 14th last year here which was his best finish yeah I think Taylor Moore is my favorite among those guys you just listed he’s um 14th in this field in driving distance as you said um he’s

Also a really good po putter so I think he makes sense I think I think sep straa is the one I would look to in that range he’s 80 to one on draftings right now mention him as someone who does well in those longer par fours um you know he

Has plenty of distance he won last year he has made the cut in three straight appearances here including a 15th in 2022 so he has experience at least so I think straa at 80 probably be my favorite um long shot alongside um luk list uh Tony feno used to be really good

Here he’s kind of cooled off a little bit but um and remember he won Mexico and Mexico’s next week so there is that but keep in mind he has had one top five since the Mexico win one his his T green numbers es especially aach have been

Awesome the last two times out he is putting horribly um which you knows why I can’t bet him at the number now he he is a lot better on bent grass greens than and po so I think once we get off these POA greens um you know that could be the

Time to bat Tony Fen alth though you next week he’s going to be like 5 to one in that field yeah probably uh and then other uh uh players maybe to keep in mind I was thinking about Jason day because you’re getting good value at 50

To one but he doesn’t play well on this golf course except last year he was ninth and he’s coming off a sixth at Pebble so the combination at 50 to1 was why I was like well you know 50 to1 but he did just didn’t make my list I do

Have to keep how about this for somebody not to take this week JT Poston in since his 17th finish in his first appearance his next five appearances were gradually worse than the previous one and the combination in his last five events this season his results have been gradually

Worse so the combination is exact opposite of what you’re looking for a guy that’s been worse on the golf course and worse on on his on his form so you do not want to be taking uh JT post on this week anybody else that you

Like uh no again I’m sticking to the top of the board I’m playing for the uh long shot streak come to an end this week yeah with posting him I defin I definitely like him on shorter courses not that he can’t get it done here but I

Don’t think it’s the best spot for his game anyways and Bradley was another guy that I was uh thinking about uh he came close to making the cut he’s a little over 60 to won he’s got five top 20s in his last seven he did win The Travelers

Last year what about uh what about Hoy guard you’re not on Hoy guard this week well again there’s he hasn’t played here yeah he hasn’t played here uh he does have the power game no question power game and came second at Tori yeah uh coming off the 31st at Pebble so um yeah

I mean I can’t take him every week but he is somebody to keep in mind and by the way it all I would also look if Burns gets off to a good start then I would if you with the live betting keep an eye on him because that’s the thing

That we were concerned about was how he played the last two years so if he’s hot if he gets off to a good start keep an eye on burns and the same thing with with Keegan Bradley because he has four top 20s and 13 appearances but no top

20s in his last eight so I don’t know what went on there but if he gets off to a good start uh then maybe that’s somebody also to keep an eye on so there there’s and and and this is a tournament that you’re not going to be able to make

A lot of money uh late over the weekend because you need to get off to a good start on this golf course uh there just are not a lot of come from behind winners most of the trends and stats tell you that you need to be matter of

Fact the least the last eight winners started the weekend inside the top six and 27 leaders after uh the third round um ended up winning including six of the last eight those are leaders so you want to be up in front uh if you’re going to

Win this event so you don’t have long I I’d say if you’re live betting this week I I think you you you after Thursday that’s it yeah make some bets and then i’ stay away from it let’s just hope for uh so for good weather a normal four

Round tournament and you hopefully one of these higher end guys wins that we bet on yeah no delays yeah no postponements uh and like you said let’s uh let’s get ourselves a win just wrapping up the one and DS um uh we both like JT as an option again o Scott are

My top two outside of JT and spe and Fitzpatrick might might be there as well so those will be my five you like JT and Klay you are you basically gonna make the decision on just those two yes I think so I did briefly consider morawa I guess if you made me

Pick a third it’d be morawa again I’m really trying to stick to the higher end guys like the guys that are 20 to one or lower in the odds I think I’m going to stick to that range because it is again you know $4 million to first place all

Right and uh we’ll let everybody know uh who our options are um and we can let you know of course uh if you join our Discord so you can do that we have a link in the description if you want to know what our option ended up being uh

You can just uh ask us uh on Discord you could also ask us any questions that you have for us here on the YouTube channel uh we are posting the shows not only on the uh new Jan Stevenson Golf Channel tea off with Jan Stevenson but also

Still we’re posting a lot of the video on Prime Sports Network so Jared appreciate it uh we have another week next week Mexico so we’re going to talk a lot about major Futures next week and it’s a golf tournament that we can uh make money on it’s that’s fine we’ll

We’ll have fun with it yeah I wonder how many people are going to be using the one and done on Tony feno next week so I won I won’t I won’t be I know just because he’s GNA be so popular I’m gonna hey maybe this is maybe Mexico they’ll

Be you know it’s a deep there’s some players so there’s some good depth in a PJ tour you never know maybe this will be a decent enough event next week where we can I hope um I hope I hope kittama plays I think he could be good there

Yeah not sure I’m not even sure if he’s played there before it’s just that that name just came my I know it’s a it’s a long like a long Wide Open golf course where just driving distance is pretty key okay yeah oh yeah K kittama came

Second there in 2022 is that the same golf course I think so I think so yeah I think so yeah they’ve only played there twice right yeah I think Ramen fale one yep yeah Kama came second to Ramen 2022 okay yeah so no defending champion this time

Around but yeah we’ll uh we won’t have a lot to talk about next week but hey there’ll be a lot of lot of potential sleepers if you want to say so we’ll we’ll try to do our best to hand you as many quality sleepers as we can on next

Week’s show we’ll go over those Majors uh and that should be a lot of fun too you’re going to take the week off of PJ national uh so hopefully Jan will be sitting in with me that week and then we’re into March and that’s when things

Really start to uh to to get interesting with the Florida swing so CH appreciate it as always thanks re good luck this week enjoy Riviera yes everybody out there enjoy it and we’ll see everyone again next week