This Is The BEST Time To Sell Old Running Backs in Dynasty Fantasy Football

Addison dives into when the right time is to buy or sell veteran running backs in dynasty fantasy football. Looking at ADp to help determine RBs falling off and when we should be selling veteran running backs before it’s too late! Talking through key RBs like Christian McCaffery and Saquon Barkley.

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Chapters
00:00 – The Story
01:27 – Part 1 Data
02:43 – Part 2 Data
05:21 – Player to Sell #1
08:13 – Player to Sell #2

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All right so a couple weeks ago Sigman Bloom put out this tweet in regards to Austin Eckler’s demise during the season stating that we should probably be trading running backs after their age 27 season no matter how good it was and also speculated on moving that to age 26

Just to be a year early rather than a year too late and in response to this known anti-ages Jacob Rick Road pointed out that five of this year’s rb1s were 27 years old or older and historically we’ve also seen some just Monster fantasy football seasons from older running backs like Adrien Peterson

Marshon Lynch Jamal Charles Matt Forte and on and on and on so then in response to Jacob’s tweet I shared that the August dlf ADP of those five 27y old and older rb1s from 2023 and showed how all but CMC were drafted outside the top 15 at the position with three of them

Drafted outside the top 20 and also how the other 27 and older running backs in Nick chub and Austin Eckler were also valued inside the top 10 but lost a ton of value because of injury and dis appointment so I fig this would be a great discussion for a video to actually

Dive into what happens to running back values once they hit age 27 and older and when should we be selling or possibly even buying these older veterans because they can be extremely productive and so it’s not to bury the lead here the rest of my tweet highlighted the main takeaway of this

Video which is sell old running backs when they’re valued as rb1s but buy them if they’re outside the top 20 but I do have data to back this up so let’s take a look here since dlf ADP began being collected back in 2014 there have been

24 running backs aged 27 or older valued inside the top 12 at the position in August ADP right before the regular season starting of those 24 running backs only 11 actually returned on that value and finished as fantasy rb1s That season so already there’s a 50-50 shot

Of them even producing up to their preseason Dynasty value also of those 24 running backs all but nine of them lost significant value as in losing anywhere from five to even 90 spots in positional ADP prior to The Following season and of those 11 running backs who actually

Finished his rb1s when valued his rb1s five of them lost significant value again another 50-50 shot on maintaining value Into The Following Season not even gaining value just maintaining value none of these running backs gained value they just maintained in plus or minus two spots so essentially when you have a

27 or older running back valued as a top 12 Dynasty running back in ADP there is a 25% chance that they finish as an rb1 and don’t lose significant value in The Following Season 25% so there’s the data behind part one we want to sell old running backs when they are valued as

Rb1s now part two of this is showcasing why it might make sense to buy old running backs if their value dips outside the top 20 at the position so now we have a sample set of 35 running backs age 27 or older with at least one season finishing as a fantasy rb1 valued

Outside the top 20 but still inside the top 36 so those filters just basically remove backups and handcuffs third down Specialists and we just look at starters in the league with a history of fantasy football success so 35 running backs in the sample set in total seven of them

Finished as rb1s which is only 20% but that’s four top 12 finishes massively exceeding expectations for production to go one step further nine of the 35 finished inside the top 15 so there’s 25% there and then 18 of the 35 finished as top 24 running backs as fantasy rb2s

Are better a 50% hit rate as actual helpful and productive players on your roster with the potential upside for a top 12 finish this is actually the range of values where Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamar came from this past season or Leonard forette in Tampa Bay back in

2022 James Connor has also lived in this range basically since joining Arizona and has outproduced that ADP three years in a row now Mark Ingram is on this list a couple of times Frank Gore is on here DeMarco Murray that massive season with Tennessee see a few years ago he was

Valued as the dynasty rb30 prior to that season there are just so many examples where older running backs still provide quality fantasy football seasons even if they aren’t valued highly in Dynasty coming into that year now of course practically every single one of these running backs lost value heading into

The Following Season like 95% of them lost value and I’m sure Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamar are going to lose value this offseason too but at least with these guys you know when you’re paying for them that you’re getting a rental running back and you’re not in investing

In them as potential Cornerstone pieces of your roster like you were Nick chub or Austin Eckler prior to this season as Dynasty rb1s the takeaway from this video is really just a question of which 25% odds are you willing to bet on given the cost to place that bet the 25% odds

Of an older Dynasty rb1 finishing as an rb1 and holding value or the 25% odds of a cheaper older rb2 or rb3 valued finishing as an rb1 or a top 15 player at the very least well to me the answer is pretty clear when the opportunity

Cost of losing out on one of those players if you lost out on Nick chub this year the opportunity cost was Drake London or DK metf while the opportunity cost of losing out on Aaron Jones this year was Johan Dodson or Hollywood Brown that is a pretty significant difference

In potential value of your roster heading into the 2024 off season so now that we’ve seen the actual data behind all of this and I’m sorry for just kind of how nerdy all of that was and hopefully you followed along with everything there but now that you’ve

Seen the data you understand the rule of why we should be selling Dynasty rb1s we actually have two players to discuss that fit this criteria this 2024 offseason Christian mcaffrey and saquan Barkley and we can start with Christian mcaffrey who in December ADP was valued as the dynasty rb2 behind only bejn

Robinson I expect his ADP to drop slightly now that we’re in the off season people care a little bit more about age now rather than points because nobody’s playing but I wouldn’t expect him to fall outside the top five of the position because well it’s it’s still Christian mcaffrey so if you have

Christian mcaffrey there are really only a couple of ways that I would be looking to sell him because I see no reason why he won’t have another gamebreaking fantasy season in 2024 if he is healthy so in order to sell him this off season I would need one of three things number

One to be able to easily pivot to bejan Robinson jir Gibbs or Bree Hall the top three players that I have in my rankings ahead of Christian mcaffrey and I would do that by either adding a late second to Christian mcaffrey or some other kind of value equivalent to get one of those

Three younger players and buy back five to six years of age with Christian mcaffrey moving to one of those guys in some leagues honestly you might be able to even move Christian mcaffrey for Bree Hall Plus or bejon Robinson plus which would also be so much greater to do that

As well too so that is one way that I would be looking to move Christian mcaffrey if you have him right now the other way is to drop down in running back tiers even more not even moving up or laterally in a tier drop down in running back TI here specifically to

Jonathan Taylor or Travis etn and get an upgrade somewhere else in your roster I would really be hesitant to go any lower than JT or etn and move CNC for like Kenneth Walker or Rashad white or a DeAndre Swift kind of player unless you’re really getting a massive upgrade

Somewhere else like if you do Christian mcaffrey and Nico Collins for Rashad white and Garrett Wilson and honestly as I say that out loud that might still not even be enough to move down from CMC to Rashad white but Jonathan Taylor and Travis ATN I think are both solid tear

Down options at the running back position to be able to upgrade somewhere else and then the Third Way is just getting equivalent value to CMC at a different position I’m talking AJ Brown Alan Ross St brown or Garrett Wilson at the wide receiver position Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray in superlex at the

Quarterback position any names like that or higher up in the rankings I would be looking to make to sell CMC even if you have to add something to go get to cidd lamb go get to Jamar Chase or go get Joe burrow where stout or Lamar Jackson any

Of those kind of players too I would be willing to add to Christian mcaffrey to go up and upgrade in that regard too all moves that I would be doing and if you’re not getting that then just hold on Christian mcaffrey because again it is still Christian mcaffrey so the other

Name then is sequan Barkley who isn’t 27 yet but he will be at the very beginning of February in like a month when this video is actually being published his offseason value could go a couple of different ways really I could see it dropping a little once people start

Reading the number 27 for his age instead of the number 26 that definitely has an effect on value in the off season but he is also a free agent and if he signs somewhere amazing like Baltimore or Dallas or the LA Chargers that would certainly boost his value back up

Because now he’s an elite Workhorse running back on an elite offense just imagine the narratives being painted for saquon Barkley in one of those offenses this off season or vice versa if the market just isn’t kind to him and he’s splitting time with someone else in a backfield like a David Montgomery

Situation signing with Detroit and then drafting jir Gibbs then his value would definitely drop because of that situation I don’t expect that to happen but again it could happen it is a very real possibility so because of all this change in saquon’s situation and profile he really does feel like a player that

Just really fits the dangers of holding on to a top 10 Dynasty running back which again historically has a 25% chance that he’ll produce as an rb1 in 20124 and then maintain value in 2025 so I pulled up some saquon trades in the trade find her to see just exactly how

He’s being treated in real leagues and there were some trades in there just from the month of December that I would love to make if you possibly can that includes saquon Barkley and Russell Wilson for Kyler Murray and Donovan peoples Jones so essentially Sequon and Russell Wilson for Kyler Murray saquan

Jaylen Herz and Mike Evans for CJ stra Jamar Chase and Dalton concade in a one quarterback League saquan Ridley and David and joku for T Higgins in a 2025 first and then there are still a couple examples in here that has saquan for a 2024 first plus but they just don’t

Exactly feel like enough to me one of them is saquan for Tai Spears and then 112 in a one quarterback league and the other is saquan for obj and the 107 also in a one quarterback League I would honestly love to just combine both of them and just make it sequin Barkley for

Tai Spears in the 1.07 that would be perfect to me just the way that both of those are and the g fact that they’re one quarterback leagues just doesn’t really feel like enough value right now for saquon Barkley but Spears and the 107 definitely feels like good enough

Value even in a 1 QB League I will say that saquin Barkley is not a panic cell right now so don’t make a bad deal just to get rid of him on your roster because he still has a ton of value and there are decent odds that he finishes as a

Fantasy rb1 in 2024 but he is a name that I would be actively exploring options on to ultimately make a move at some point in the off season toss him out on your trade block see what comes back and maybe right now just isn’t the

Best time to move him in your league but maybe if he does sign somewhere else that significantly better than the New York Giants offense in March then his value could definitely rise and you can capitalize on that at that point in time