Riviera Week is here, and the Genesis Invitational is set to tee off!
Join us LIVE as we break down all the betting angles for this prestigious event at the iconic Riviera Country Club. ⛳️
0:00 Intro
0:30 Recapping the WMPO
8:05 Riviera
16:45 Stats that Matter here
20:30 Pool Genius One and Done
21:40 Building our Model
55: 00 Best Best for the Genesis
In this episode, you’ll get:
⛳️Expert analysis of the top contenders, including Tiger Woods’ return and rising stars.
⛳️Data-driven insights and trends to help you make informed bets.
⛳️Prop bets, outright winner picks, and sleep sleepers to watch.
⛳️ Live Q&A throughout the stream – ask us anything betting-related!
Whether you’re a seasoned golf bettor or just dipping your toes in, this stream is for you! Learn from the best and get ready to place your winning bets on the Genesis Invitational.
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Hey everyone welcome back 2024 Genesis Invitational here bsbs golf betting preview Andy what’s going on bud this one gets in my head a little because I’m I’m always like what isn’t this the I I just we call it Riviera so much I always lack the like brain power
To remember there’s two Genesis because you have the the Scottish show up and has a Genesis sponsor also not a car I see that much and funny enough it is it is the it is the car that uh tiger was injured in and then he’s just gonna come
Back here and be like I love Genesis I don’t know kind of weird but yes uh I I feel bad uh just off the top we’ll do a little uh recap last week I didn’t watch much live because I was so busy with football stuff yeah I don’t know if they
Thought that through but between the waste management and like prepping for the Super Bowl I I took in almost no live it looked the course looked nice I think they found a nice spot I might have it a different weekend if I were them but uh i’ I’d go back and play the
Las Vegas country club if I were them obviously the the weather was [ __ ] and the waste management didn’t nail the timing like they usually do where hey it’s two hours before the game the final groups are you know cozying into 16 and we have some drama things finish up you
Got time to go you know stir the crockpots and have the the big game so it sucked that it overlapped it was uh it was weird there was a wild there where I thought Charlie Hoffman was going to win which I guess kudos to him
For doing it up for his sponsors so he’s a waste management guy and I mean he he’s had some very bad golf played over the past few years and he just kicked it into high gear played really well for the uh for the waste management folks
And you know in the long run we have a guy who is just nuts in in playoffs I guess in Mick Taylor which I mean that’s two hour it’s balls of steel I was in my head I’m like man we got to get this guy
On a Ridder Cup team just for that and then I realized like oh that’s not how that works he’s Canadian President’s Cup um yeah president President’s Cup works but uh you had to be I wonder if they do it like you do in soccer where it’s like
Hey this guy has you know they do that all the time for the World Cup like this guy is born in this country but he lives in this country and he can just choose wherever he wants to play doesn’t work as I think as much for the Ridder cup
But yeah congrats to Nick that was great um the putting was amazing at the and Scotty missing this and that and honestly like it’s another one of those things where he didn’t win the tournament but in the long run it kind of goes to show how good he is because
He he had some flubs he putted I mean what was that probably a 20f footer Into the Bunker went that went into the bunker like I mean he he had some bad luck and it’s still like he’s just still at the top of the leaderboard
Even when he kind of has off days he’s still just right there so Scotty in form at a course where you need some form or you need some experience or you need to be a guy who has every shot in the bag and every Club available to him wouldn’t surprise me if
He uh if we finally got somebody this week that wasn’t 100 to one or better I know I went to you typically in the article that I write on the site I typically just hone in on the outright place I started my article last week
With a Scotty top 10 BET like felt so comfortable laying minus 134 without taking the worst number not taking mgm’s pies in full because I’m just like there’s no scenario where he just doesn’t content it just was you know again getting to five to one or whatever 550 pre-tournament from an
Outright standpoint was hard I had a freebie so I had a little bit of uh access trying to you know sweat that on Sunday before but yeah we need just some even golf between Pebble uh between you know just every single round had some sort of delay situation last week
Obviously with some guys having to play you know essentially 27 holes on Sunday obviously made it tough they didn’t even reshuffle the groups after the third round finish so you you just that made it very difficult and uneven too so not an ideal scenario for them obviously
Waste Management went off the rails it’s some other ways too last week more than more than others I mean it was the usual so I’m I’m never it’s one of those things where when you’re like 18 I’m gonna be a cool parent and then you have
Kids you’re like oh [ __ ] I have to be a hard ass I wonder at what point how because I’m almost 40 at what point I will flip over and turn into Billy orell and Zack Johnson be like those kids shouldn’t be having fun because I I
Think if it were oh this is a pandemic like this is it’s endemic it’s happening in every course now they’ve lost golf like it’s once a year during Super Bowl weekend at a fun course in you know and youve seen the guy pissing himself he had an Arizona Wildcat shirt on like
That checks out it’s it’s Arizona guys this is gonna happen so I’m fine with it you still I mean there’s lines you can’t cross like you can’t be you know really abusing these players but uh it’d be interesting to hear if some stories come out eventually and like oh he was like
Dropping slurs and [ __ ] in his back you know who who knows what uh what set those guys off but I mean Zack Johnson I’m hoping it was people [ __ ] on him for being a bad Captain because he was probably was I’m sure he heard it at
Some point it was either that what set him off or he had was have been kind of quietly mounting over the couple days or whatnot so yeah yeah it was it was definitely uh uneven obviously for them a nightmare scenario where in the majority of the the world and even the
Golf hardos unless you were dealing with multiple TVs or monitors or whatever are just not watching the end of your tournament and it’s in a playoff and one of the best players in the world is somewhat in the mix down the stretch and like you just can’t contend with with
The the Beast that is the uh you know the Super Bowl again like I turn it off there’s more there’s more people watching the top Super Bowl commercials lead show than there were golf you knowy it’s hard to compete with yeah golf needs a win this week still a fun
Tournament yeah we just need like you said we need a tournament without shitty rain without stupid delays uh we have a smaller field that helps like it is the signature field so it’s gon to be you know 70 80 guys that might help if they have to move things around a little I
Just you know no one can control the weather we’re never going to play golf indoors actually they are I mean there there are like indoor simulator leagues that’s a lot of fun but um you know it’s going to happen but at the same time I selfishly just want a normal tournament
Where all of the players play round one on Thursday Friday Saturday and just goes so hopefully the weather’s fine I’m heading out to California this weekend not for this tournament it doesn’t look fine it looks like we are in for some rain so I’ll be drinking indoors but uh
Yeah here’s here’s hoping you want to talk about Riv a little yeah I mean so this is a scenario kind of what we wanted a couple weeks ago when we had Pebble right we have like this iconic Golf Course beautiful challenging track in a window without football and this
Now we’re like turning the page football’s over so we’re done competing with football at all but we got tiger back as well um this this guy he’s have you heard he’s he’s there um so that is another thing too like just golf needs a a win uh let’s get it done in a
Signature field event in a tiger Invitational uh you no one questions tiger giving himself an invite to his tournament um you know any thoughts on the uh Sunday red I mean people are you know like we got the new Tiger logo stuff it’s fine like it’s fine who cares
It’s like it’s the same thing we do uh I had this opinion care but during during the Super Bowl I had this opinion where I seen three different chats complain about the score bug and it’s like we do this this every time there’s a new score
Bug like oh I like the old one better like you’ve never not liked the old one better we do this every time it’s fine we like it’s new it’s different we’ll get used to it it’ll just be a thing like what [ __ ] sense does the word
Adidas make you know like if a new brand like that came out or Nike now like what the [ __ ] does that word even mean you know it’s just it’s just once it becomes ingrained in the culture and you know media runs with it and obviously it’s
It’s Tigers brand so we will it’ll be fine yeah I like it but anyway big cats back iconic Riviera uh CC again a uh fantastic track and hopefully things play out well as we want to see last California event for the season we’re in Mexico next week and then we start to
Move around a little bit we get into the Florida swing and all those different things so uh as Andy mentioned Signature Events this is one of the few uh that wanted to hold on to the cut uh the cut line also has the old school uh like
Augusta shots within 10 shot so like we have technically about 70 guys that qualify here and I think that’s what the field is at you 50 in ties 10 within you know with players within 10 Strokes so like you might not have a cut or you like
It’s gonna take some pretty bad golf or someone maybe to really separate on Thursday and Friday to kind of stretch that 10 stroke thing and take that off the table so I’m interested to see what that uh that looks like but again there is a cut which is he’s not like Pebble
We had a no cut event so that does matter a little bit I saved a tweet from I want to give the guy credit Josh kulp I think he he does content for a few different places but he went and looked at this with the with the how
Would have this have played out at other Genesis opens so it’s top 50 plus 10 shots to the lead and back in 2020 68 people would have made the cut you know there there’s a few like last year would have been 57 the year before 51 55 but
There is a scenario where like almost like you know three guys missed the cut yeah so tough that’d be a tough trunk slam if you’re just one of three guys pack yeah you’re just like there’s like two guys that are leaving that would that would feel pretty bad but that would
Especially in a signature event with all the cash all you know the big big big purse here so yeah it’s it’s likely going to be not too weird but there is a chance that it’s like you know Five Guys go home 60 60 some stay so it it’ll
Depend on the scoring distribution and it’s probably gonna be soft it’s gonna be that kikuya that grabs you a little and yeah I don’t know it’ll it’ll kind of come down to how everyone putts I suppose yep that’s uh a big piece you mentioned too like so we are unique in
Terms of some of the layout stuff here this is other than Tor where we just at a couple weeks ago these are the only places on tour that have uh that kakuya rough uh with the POA mix uh on the you know or POA POA greens so that
Combination of the two things not a POA mix green but the combination of those two so I do think that there is some crossover uh in terms of you know maybe looking at some again another long course driver heavy uh driver heavy is kind of continued here this is a place
Where finding the fairways is very difficult and we’ve had these over the years where you distan is so prevalent on tour where it’s like hey look everyone’s missing the fairways why am I trying to get cute um and why not just attack get down as close as I can get
Myself uh you know shortest wedge in hand that I possibly can uh and get this ball as close to the hole or you know close to the right tier of the green because we also have the strange dichotomy here Ron points out in his preview on the site as well we have
Really really big greens uh that’s typically we would expect a pretty high greens and red rate we do not get that here we have one of the worst greens and regulation rates on tour especially considering the size of the greens 56.7% is uh pretty low pretty much lower
Than than uh than tour average so I think that that’s an interesting thing here too so scrambling comes in the shot shape in terms of like it’s not just a how you can play your you know your power fade you got to be able to mix around there’s some Coral are in terms
Of you know leaderboards in the past at Augusta because that’s definitely prevalent at Augusta obviously some of the you know Agronomy stuff is not the same but in terms of like Scot shaping and you know obviously the penalty off the tea of Agusta is not the same too but I think there are
Some crossover in terms of that as well yeah not you’re not g to find penalty Strokes it’s funny you’re talking about no with the rough there’s no water there are the baranas which is not where you want to be that it runs through the whole course I think it’s eight or nine
Holes that that is part of like you know the the shape of the hole and you might end up down in this weird Gully very you know penal bunkers here if you end up in some of those they’re pretty deep so sand saves around the green scrambling that stuff is going to
Be really important and like you mentioned and I think there’s something to it for some of these guys who know they have the big stick in the bag say I am a long driver of the ball I understand that I understand how hard it is hit to greens like you said or hit
These Fairways might as well just piss Missle it get it down there and find my way out of this rough if that’s the case and the biggest problem with this rough is you know it can grab onto the ball grab onto the club a sticky grabby
Kikuya what have you like who’s going to be best out of those and granted you’re gon to get weird ball flights sometimes and you’re gonna get weird spin that’s just life but the guys with the club head speed that can drive the pist missiles are going to be a little
Probably a little better out of that anyway so I don’t hate the to looking at driving distance or you know using that as a bit of a you know one of the metrics you want to look at this week who is longer off the te who has that
High club head speed who can just knock it down there and fight their way out of the greens and you know there’s a lot of top golfers here so it’s gonna be it’s gonna be tough to differentiate between some of these guys because it seems like
A lot of the guys who are at the top of the betting board have those kind of traits anyway nowadays we can look specifically at Club head speed too I that’s thing that we can do you know that’s the rabbit hole we bring that up it’s uh good times
So yeah you know we bombing gouch has been a thing that’s kind of been more prevalent on tour and again that’s been more prevalent at Tory too so a little harder to do here there’s a little bit more Nuance in some of these holes a little bit more dog leg uh you know
Situations versus Tory where a lot of the holes are similar layouts in terms of kind of everything’s right in front of you obviously can kind of bomb and gouge it a little bit but yeah yeah um yeah there’s and again the weather and and weatherwise too it’s been it’s been
Better but there’s still like a decent chance of rain this weekend is what I’m seeing so far I don’t know where you’re at on that yeah I mean I’ll look closer I mean I feel like Wednesday night probably weather man yeah and those guys no offense than those guys uh their job
Is probably very difficult considering they’re not super duper accurate uh sometimes the you know the uh forecast is overwhelming like we it seemed inevitable ahead of time when you were looking at the pebble forecast a couple days out where it’s like nin is unavoidable for multiple days uh you
Know so we’ll see what ends up happening here so yeah you need the full bag uh which is again I think brings to your point the top of the card the top of the board into play you know around the green matters a ton here as well because we talked about
56.7% Greens in regulation rate over the last handful years you got to be able to scramble uh the bunkering they’re impactful bunkering in terms of you know Fairway bunkers bunkers a little bit deeper 50 60 yards away and then obviously greens side bunkers too so all
Those things I think matter so you need to be you need be in your bag which hole is that there’s you know there are bunker in the middle of the green well there there’s the one in the green and then there’s also just there’s that driveable par for and it’s like oh here
Here’s one here’s one I can go after and then you look at the bunkering around it like oh do I want to like do I have that do I have that shot in my bag so yeah shaping shots both ways being able to you know find your way to these big
Greens out of the kakuya rough scrambling sand saves around the green and then obviously the putting on this POA which is we’ve seen this year after year people Miss short putts here all the time yes they just the the putts will take a little bit of a you know
Kind of a detour on the way to the hole I mean you’re talking like three four-footers that just like what like I thought we had this you know we we get up to some of these bent grass and you’re watching on shot tracker maybe because your guy isn’t on TV like oh
Yeah he hit it to eight feet like that’s good we’re calling that good on these screens right now just you know I think you gotta be within like a foot and a half before you uh start giving gimmies so some guys that have played well or played here before same thing I think
You know Tori is a viable core Larry chorus highlights too in his preview 16 of the last 18 winners here have played at least four Genesis Invitational Riviera Country Club uh events in the past so it is a spot where course history some experience does matter uh and I think
That that makes some sense and there’s also the other thing with the like POA kakuya thing too like it’s also very common in Australia we’ve seen some Australians play well here as well and that I think that that’s maybe something we we can we can touch on here too so I
Think there’s maybe something to that but yeah uh we can dig in you want to talk uh touch one and done real real quick yeah and just off the bat it is a big purse you know these are going to move around I I don’t know how much this
Is going to move around from year to year I know from last year we did move around like uh the waste management was a signature event that’s why the field was different this year because it was sandwiched in between two this is a big purse these These are going to be as big
As Majors so basically all these Signature Events you have to treat as the same size as a major purse except uh you know the field is a little different as far as how who you can pick from so kind of uh you know we said maybe a
Little further down the board last week you can you can play an ace so me and me and Cal that’s we we go with the we go with the deck of cards analogy for most of our like ah you got to play you know we’re using we’re using a face card here
Okay this might be an this is an a this is an ace like you do got to play your Aces because you can’t take them with you and then yes of course a little shout out to our sponsor pool genius if you’re sick of relying on luck for your
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How you like it uh I’m a big fan of their products when it comes to you know the the March Madness product the NFL Survivor product so they’ve done a really nice job and again it is a new product they’re looking for feedback and they are very very reactive to that they
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To them check it out and yeah use an ace this week gotta use a big name there’s plenty of them in the field um and speaking of the field I think it’s time we load up the rabbit hole for the week yeah let’s do it uh if
You are not familiar we’re going to build uh use our Rabbit Hole our officially licensed PGA Tour data tool to build a model for you this week and uh you know look at the stats that matter here if you are looking to get a
Sense of uh you you can get a trial and watch us here if you want to get access premium access to everything that we’re doing over at bsports golf all the Articles uh all of our pick this the rabbit hole itself Discord all that
Stuff uh we have a way for you to do it for cheap now again I will argue and you can go ahead and Shop it yourself I’m obviously biased uh you can pay full rate for what we got going on at bets’s golf right now and and absolutely get a
Deal so no offense I don’t really want to hear that you complain that because other people can get it for $ five that you want it for $ five do too um we’re not for you I’m sorry but we have a partner with Vivid pick Vivid pick is a
Uh pickham site DFS pick site similar to some others that you’re probably familiar with out there uh they actually have already posted round one plays for the Genesis they absolutely love to see you want to look at uh birdie or better for round one you want to look at
Someone’s round one score uh you could take basically higher or lower in those markets build a little parlay card of DFS picks and uh make yourself some money now all you need to do if you are new to vivix go to the App Store download the app use our promo code bsps
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Deal deposit $250 you have $500 in your account instantly to play with if you’re just looking for a loophole basically to get access to bsps golf for cheap minimum $5 deposit and play to get a play put that five bucks in there and put it on something right away and you
Will get an email and how to access bets’s golf for free for the rest of the season now it’s only available in about 28 States uh if you are in one of the unfortunate 22 go ahead and DM us on bsbs uh bsbs golf on Twitter or Andy
Myself Ron CLA PJ splits 101 directly we will help get you the best promo code available for you this is an affiliate relationship they help offset some of that cost so again I cannot get you a $5 deal we obviously want to get bet better data in your hands and I think the
Rabbit hole is the best that’s out there and we’re really excited about that so we’re gonna go ahead and uh and build them all the biggest thing while he’s pulling up the rabbit hole is if you do this and you take advantage you have to
Play we have like we have like 20 people that have signed up with their promo code deposited money sometimes decent m not just not just the five bucks and haven’t played through if you to play to get the promo code to sign up for betsws
Golf and get the five bucks you got to play at least five bucks uh over there so just take advantage of that but make sure the three steps use the promo code deposit five doll play $ Five Doll you should get an email with a promo code to
Use over at betsports golf.com and with that let’s build build build who we think will be the best course fit here up at Riviera Country Club golf course in beautiful somewhere in La Pacific Palisades I think Pacific Palisades I couldn’t think of it yeah got a comment
From Nick saying the guy I tail say he’s against havlin because of the coaching change is there room for that in the model construction I don’t think we’re gonna I don’t think we’re gonna have coaching change as a metric but it’s always in those are my favorite things
To look at is when like uh Paul Tori is on the bag this week for someone different you know like yeah CAD changes or yeah we get caddy changes Co changes equipment changes people love that [ __ ] I love that [ __ ] so um what do you want
To this interesting too I want to show people too is uh you have access you can go over uh into the rabbit hole and click on the tab will’ll show you here to view expert rankings uh you want to get the model that Andy built the model
That Ron Claus built the model that I built you can also get the model that Andy lack built if you’re familiar with Andy uh in his inside golf podcast you want to see what he did uh you now have access to his model as as well we’re
Hope hoping uh you know that we can add some other people here eventually down the road which I think is a nice little uh added benefit for you too and again I think that’s part of the beauty of this is it’s like hey what are these other
Folks valuing in terms of stats that matter it’s not an answer key it’s not Andy’s picks uh but it’s also an access to see hey what stats are they valuing and I thought you know looking at Andy’s very different than how I guess I’ll say LAX looking at LAX model I think very
Different and interesting to see how Andy and I differ because we all were a little bit more like Hey how do we keep it tight and minimal uh and whack has a ton of data and I think all of it’s super relevant so I think that’s another
Beauty in this model building process is like hey there are multiple ways I believe six to skin a cat uh and they get a sense instantly that you know multiple people who do this all the time can do it in very very different ways yeah I I purposely did not look at Andy
Mod yet I took in some of his content uh yesterday and I I know you know generally what some of his ideas are the course but I wanted to be blank slate when I put mine together this morning yeah so I will I will look at his uh
After the show up this afternoon because Christ it’s a course he plays you know this is It’s one of his home courses so I obviously have to take his his input with a bunch of value this week yeah there is a an element to his model that
I absolutely love uh that I will uh excited to share when we get there so if you’re seing this for the first time you can see obviously we are displaying the field here at the Genesis you can mess around with Seasons if you just want to capture 2024 season to date it’s going
To get you a pretty small sample uh there are multiple views you can mess around with the time frame in conjunction with the rounds played uh you want to look at course history you can go ahead and select we talked about specifically Tory Pines or you want to
See what’s going on here at Riv you can go into this course Tab and change stuff as well region specific how to guys play in California uh specific course types these are all unique things to the rabbit hole data you will not find anywhere else this filter by condition
Tab uh can be overwhelming but there are lots of different ways to slice and dice this data to help you get a better sense of who you need to hone in on maybe do a little bit more research in maybe dig a little bit further as well so if you are
Listening to the podcast we appreciate it subscribe five star review uh also the YouTube show on our betsports YouTube channel is also a great way to tail along for this show because Andy and I like to build a model so uh we like to build and start with an anchor
Statistic something in the stroke game category total TAA green approach ball striking uh where do you want to go probably just I mean ball striking or TD green again is a is a bit of an anchor yeah it’s I I don’t know if we need as much of an anchor an this week
Because a lot of times when I say anchor I’m using a high you know 10,000 foot VI stat like total Strokes gained because when we start building this model out and we get a little more granular we don’t want somebody who’s just really good at a small part of their game to be
Too high yeah you know that is what we’re getting after but at the same time we still want guys who are the best golfers in the world to not fall too far because we got too cute with it so you know I’ve used total I’ve used T green
I’ve used ball striking I think any of those are fine I think it’s going to be a little less important this week because of just how strong this field is and basically everybody in the field Part near obviously with the addition of some of the the lower-end guys that got
In here and there and and honestly I hate to say it but tiger um is going to be pretty close to the top of a lot of those so I mean TD green is fine yeah okay so it’s uh we say we go last nine
Months because we get so we get a bigger on some of these guys that didn’t play a bunch of Swing season events yeah and a better way to explain this is just form like we’re just putting in overall form so you want to do a bigger form you
Don’t want to be you know this is where I go you know sometimes I’ll take this out to a year just say like how have you played since the last time year yeah give me give me a hundred rounds on some of these guys and even with nine months when you
Know even in nine months going through the swing season where a lot of guys are off true or a lot of guys are playing some European events rather I mean you’re still getting like 40 50 rounds on a lot of these guys yeah I see most
Me 43 is like you know can’t Le at 45 most of these guys are are getting to uh to 50 rounds or so this is captured here you can see also these are number of rounds um shotlink measured rounds in parenthesis because obviously we you have a handful occasionally where we
Don’t have shotlink data but yeah this is I think this makes sense again Baseline skill set uh before we start to get you know overly fitting to specific stats you want to capture hey Scotty sheffler T green is the best in the world that’s going to matter here we should probably capture
That as a pretty strong Baseline tenant of what we’re looking to do here all you need to do to add this to a uh your model building process because we’re going to do this here at the end on the plus you can make a little note if you’d
Like I’m not going to do that well I’ll do it here for the first one just so people can see so we’ll go last 50 uh last nine months T green just for you on your rent all right so we got that um within that though yeah let’s
Let’s uh let’s slice and dice we could do lots of different things here and again I think we both like to do some things that are a little bit unique and different than what we what we did as well um but let’s just start off the T
Because we’ll just go front to back we got te to Green but let’s uh let’s go into the the off the T section here we talked about driving distance mattering um you accuracy again it matters but you’re it’s kind of a Fool’s errand because no one’s necessarily like do you
Really want a guy that is just trying to find Fairways he’s hanging so far back you know to find the Fairway that he’s you know probably in a disadvantageous spot for a second shot of time it may not be prescriptive here or predictive just because like you said you could be
Finding the guys who have the best accuracy off the tea and they may not be putting a together a game plan to highlight that part of their game they might be just hauling off a little more instead of clubbing down they you know are putting the one in their hands a
Little more so it might not be a great one to use here whereas you know total driving driving distance Club head speed carry distance is interesting I will say I put that in my model in case you didn’t want a double dip but I put that
In because the roll out here is less than you know I guess other if it’s wet if you want to get a a Romy wise like it is it is a a fairway that’s not going to allow as much roll out so I did put some
I put carry distance you know it’s going to be pretty similar look at the look at the carry distance column and look at the driving distance column if you’re if you’re following Along on YouTube you can see it’s not terribly far off but you have some guys you know like Gary
Woodland who is driving distances 23rd compared to carry distance in sixth be interesting to break down some of those guys who have a big uh discrepancy in two and understand what what they’re doing differently with their their drives yeah with the spin like you know Woodland’s a great example where’s uh you know
22 uh 22 this field and driving distance but in terms of carry uh he is sixth again I just put on a small filter 20 rounds so I’m you know losing some of the field here but uh not not many of them but yeah is an interesting thing
Because again like you talked about if there’s weather too right we end up being in a spot where wet wet K yeah yeah we’re not getting the roll out [ __ ] ain’t rolling no we G also again I don’t know if you think there’s any value to it you can go down to miscellaneous
Metrics and just circumvent the whole thing and do clubhead speed yeah another thing that scary it’s same Adam Scott’s up there Adam Scott Adam and Adam Scott is a guy you know not only you’ve mentioned this already but he’s a guy who’s had good course history here and Y he’s Australian
So again another way again multiple ways to skin the cat um that’s also available for you after us sorry cats sorry um what else let’s do carry I’m add car because I likeed it I like it yeah I Didn’t Do It um and then again I
Think driver stuff I want a pretty big sample so we’ll go carrye we’re here capturing last 50 rounds last nine months I think that that’s a good way to start again a little unique so good drives is interesting thing too right so again not familiar with the stat um it
Is number of Fairways hit plus the number of greens and rag when the drive was not in the Fairway we know it’s still low right so like it matters and it’s important this week but like it’s still really hard to do so uh it’s it is a challenge it’s almost like the driving
Accuracy piece so I would not bemoan anyone for putting that into their model but I think it’s not necessarily telling the story by itself that I think you want it to this week so I think for the sake of the show um I think we’ll just
Do carry distance from an off the T standpoint all right approach see we want to do anything in approach so I want to hear your thesis on greens and regulation percentage and anybody who maybe doesn’t understand the stats as much is like did your ball land on the
Green off the T On a par three did your second shot land on the green you know on a par four or better you know if you drive that Par Four that’s also agreed in regulation and then same thing with a par five did your second or third shot
Landing the green how what and you know as Ryan pointed out we have huge greens here which should make it easy but the difficulty of the second shots here the difficulty of some of these t- shots on the bar 3s leads us to have a very low greens and regulation percentage
Compared to other courses other tournaments so what’s your what’s your thesis on that as far as using some of these stats what do you think is the most important and the most predictive looking at how some of these golfers have played over the past what do we have at nine
Months yeah it’s challenging because if you wanted to get into a a sample where you know you look at a couple courses and you want to say hey what’s how about greens and rag at Riv greens and rag at Riv and Tor um then you’re getting into
Like so small sample so small and noisy you got to go back multiple years like it starts to get really challenging I don’t think it’s gonna give you this the actual story that you’re trying to tell with what the model is doing so and I think if you did want to do something
Like that you would want to just go you know overall play at you know let’s say comp courses or even just here just go five years of playing the Genesis or five five years of Genesis Tori and Augusta maybe throwing in there if you want to do something like that so but
Yeah once you get into a smaller sample like that I hate going more granular when I do that I I tend to go towards like total Strokes gained yeah that’s when you’re going to get into the stuff we’re talking about at the top with the anchor stat where you’re kind of going
To be overweighting or underweighting someone because this the sample is so small and again like a 20 rounds St sample over the course of you know five years is just a very noisy very noisy data set to get yourself into and again it’s you have the ability to look at it
And I don’t again something that you could do here you could look at it that’s I have fun looking at it I just struggle putting it in in one of these models I build yeah yeah some of these too like again these when you go for the green
Uh what’s your proximity um like are you you know you’re awarded for being a little bit aggressive and when that happens how does that work for you can you score uh in those situations when you’re going for the Green in terms of bir percentage um you know going for the
Green hit rate when you go and you’re aggressive does it work for you um I think that that is something that could be pretty telling so these are not my favorite stats I probably would stay in approach but um if you have a strong take for a greens and R stat I
Comfortable putting it in no I mean overall proximity greens and regulation or just straightup approach one of the first three yeah because straight up straight up approach covers everything greens and rag is obviously if you have someone who is above average at that maybe that’s something they can bring
Here and then proximity just because we need guys that are keeping it close man these these putting you know these putting surfaces can be tricky and difficult let’s capture this twice I do this I’m going to do strok skin approach again double counting in a way because
We already have t green that’s okay if we’re going to double count anything double count approach yeah um and then you can go into specifically Fairway or rough approach in terms of capturing the penalty that a golfer experiences based off of being in the rough but you do
Rough greens and rag or rough proximity one of those two yeah I think one of those too um you can get into obviously we have a massive massive allotment of roach shots from 150 plus here so you can get into that as well again another thing where you know you’re you’re
Honing in on a specific range and you’re honing in on rough versus approach so be careful there uh and overweighing any of those but I think capturing both of these things I think matter because we know guys are gonna be playing from the rough here it just is it’s inevitable
Regardless of how accurate or strong they are off the te so um let’s look at Rough greens and rag percentage um and we’ll pop it in here Oh ludig Daddy corination time huh be can you imagine I’m gonna have to have some ludig you know top 10 or something flies
In the face of the 16 out of 18 uh winners having some past experience here but uh said that about Tory too and he he sure put himself in the mix there uh and continues to he already won on some places he’s never played before so that’s half the yeah that’s half the
Reasoning it’s well he went to San Diego and kind of look good on these uh you know Agronomy wise similar so all right so we got a couple of approach what about around the green scrambling sandies we talked about that being important you can go a few different
Ways here I’m Gonna Leave This one up to you yes this is Sand’s I’m not gonna do I just don’t almost ever if you’re not doing it here you’re not doing it at Pebble you’re probably not doing it at all again another thing to tiebreaker um
I mean I don’t I don’t watch Scotty sheffler and be like this guy struggles from the Sands but he’s 53rd here in a pretty large sample right so like um you know you want to say hey this guy is is really strong from the Sands I think
That’s a telling story as well there’s your guys at the top you looking the last 50 rounds Todd Harmon Grayson Murray wam Clark sunj M uh Ricky Denny Nick Taylor guys that have struggled fow Woodland Kevin Yu Taylor Moore cam young Corey Connor so like you know
Not adding it um how about we do some scrambling on you know scoring here if you look last year you know what the you know John Ram won can’t not back here to defend you know for looking at like what’s actually happened here over the last couple years but like making the
Cut has been pretty hard scoring overall I would consider this a it’s around 10 to 12 over the last handful of years in like actual score scoring conditions um you know you can make the case for like howy about we do scrambling in difficult scoring conditions or something like
That that’s capturing a little bit more of a maybe a little bit overfitting and granular but I think it’s it’s something maybe worth taking a look at well especially I when you do something like that and we’re going to add a condition to the filter I think you start by making the
Sample size bigger by making the yeah let’s let’s look at like two years worth of data so fun this is we can you know look at different samples yeah the cutline was plus two last year so like you know yes ROM won uh at a um you know
Decent Siz number right Ram won at 17 but like day Woodland senson you know eight Strokes back still in the top 10 so it was kind of like some guys separated themselves to the top but you know you were still five under was still top 20 so you know in
Terms of what we have on the tour these days I would consider this you know difficult more difficult than normal scoring conditions so yeah let’s uh we let’s back out we’ll go into the conditions here um let’s say difficult scoring conditions scroll down a second
Yeah so at the bottom there we got rough we got architect designer we’ve got greens and regulation accuracy I don’t I I’m not saying we should do this right now but that’s something interesting two to look at this week if you want to grab a big sample size of every round people have
Played over the last few years where it was difficult relative to all rounds played for the golfers on the course to find the greens in regulation you could do that so you could be yeah you could again I don’t know how many things I would click at once because your sample
Size is going to get very small but you can look at every single round over the past few years that were tough to find the greens on and look at who played well every single round where the Fairway accuracy was very difficult for them to find and just kind of look at
That and that that’s that’s what I like to do is you know once once we start realizing like what what we’re dealing with how this compares to other courses other tournaments I like to click on those and at least look like who who’s looked good on these sort of things for
The past few years and then start digging in but no I’m fine because I think difficult scoring in conditions probably covers those there a little more granular it’s a really good point though you know and this is the ability to do this is I think what makes the
Rabbit hole unique and up to you if you want to put that in the model or if you like Andy said you just want to look at it and I think there’s something to be said with doing either same thing like hey look we just talked about you know
If you were to chop up rough surface into kakuya you’re probably getting a really small sample may as well look at it right like how hard is it to we know you got to scramble these greens who scrambles well from Kya I mean that that’s might as well look at it um I
Think those are you you want to just hey let’s do POA and Kaku you’re going to capture that sample from Tori yeah that’s coures yeah but like hey it’s gonna it’s gonna give you something uh again you can get into uh all these things here so yeah let’s just we’ll do
Difficult scoring conditions here and I think that’s something we haven’t done much as you hadit apply I kind of want to point that out um go ahead and apply that so I can see past this if you want and you know which uh yeah we gotta go bigger
Sample let’s go five years let’s get weird there we go there’s some three years yeah we’re getting if you know which courses you want to look at go to I mean you can just go to courses right on the on the top and just say I want
These five courses I want you know give me Augusta give me Tori give me um you know Genesis give me Riviera here and you can you can choose those and say only show me rounds at those too if you want because I mean a lot of we’ve done
It a couple different ways where we said basically like if you do this you’re only gonna get Tori and Riviera rounds and yeah you can do you can do it the easy way too you just just click on it so uh all right let’s see Strokes gained around the Green in difficult scoring
Conditions uh Tommy at the top Tommy lad Chris Kirk uh CZ winner on tour this year yeah competitive on some other spots too Ben on very very good year Justin Justin coming around his prices are falling back into where they they once seven straight T12 or better we’ll
Do that to you um we know he could scramble his face off for sure so also sand saves in difficult again we’re you can see here this little red dot tells you you have a condition on and it’s also listed here just to turn it off you
Could just X out of it make sure you do that when you start start to uh go to other spots because otherwise you’re going to be filtering everything by this condition so make sure you don’t do that but um yeah scrambling percentage in this scenario Uh Kevin Yu
Matthew Fitzpatrick Uh Kevin Yu’s two rounds so you can s you go ahead into this minimum rounds and filter something out if you wanted just to put 12 rounds kick some of those guys out reshuffles the ranking um because again you’re going to have that so this is Again part
Of the the difficulty where Tom Kim is is only 12 rounds and Fitzpatrick’s giving you 46 so that’s definitely a different a different scenario but yeah this is kind of what uh I think Nick in the chat was talking about is look look how strong Vic was from a scrambling
Standpoint over this sample uh scrambling From the Rough was top 10 numbers all over the board here fired uh Joe Mayo his short game coach and it’s kind of gone off the rails again so um interested to see what happens there with Vic and if he can get some of the
Mojo back that was uh so crucial in making him who he was there last year so um yeah what do we want to do around the Green in general yeah just to keep it simple on here go around the green we’re already difficult make a all right uh I will
Chop this and uh cut that out we will go back what else do we want to do we can do anything scoring wise yeah par five scoring maybe really do maybe par five here far five Birch birds are better but other than that I think we’re we’re
Pretty close okay what about I kind of want to capture bogey avoidance this is a hard scoring conditions you know you can’t be making big big numbers um any interest there that popped in was that part of your model or anything you thought of no I did do some
Par five scoring in mine okay so maybe go different we we can go bogy avoidance because there is a ton of oh [ __ ] like you know with your t-shot I need par here like I’m I’m fighting for par at this point look at look at this King right
Here across the board Andy I mean yeah we already got 50 rounds too we’re not even messing with small samples anymore uh all right bogey avoidance again it’s in people’s heads because we saw this the small Miss putts from Luda uh at Tory but uh it does not back itself out
In terms of long term on the on this guy’s sample size already so all right uh again you can put as many as conditions uh filters and stats as you would like or we like to keep it tight here for the show for the sake of time
Uh but let’s run this bad boy we’ll hit this create mix condition model button it’ll um give us defaults here to the weights you can see here that’s this is the description box that I clicked in and put some notes here just again for your sake you can also hover over this
Icon and it’ll actually tell you what your uh applied filters were as well in case you you know build a lot and you’re like hey what is this I got six things that say Strokes gain the green some of them were 12 rounds 16 rounds 24 rounds
100 rounds you can go ahead and uh do that as you wish this will be Riv betting show we’ll give it a name we’ll make this a expert model if people want to go in and take a look at what we did here on the show and you give it
Weights defaults obviously to make it nice and even for you but we we’ll mess around with us what do we say here 25 with our anchor uh then what do we want to do what else do we value the most here probably approach even well I mean
You’re counting it over a bigger sample with the anchor so maybe 20 on approach okay and then past that I mean it is probably pretty even I mean if anything past that it would be the around the green stuff so important here the rough you know yeah so we’re at 4 40 60
70 uh we’ll just go 50 in each uh yeah let’s go 50 in each okay with that again you can do whatever you like with this part of this is for the sake of time and for the sake of the show but I think that this is
Probably a good start you can see you could save as many of these bad boys as you like um you know rerun them change them run some baseline models on some stuff uh you can uh no limit to the number of things that you can do here
Also important I’ll scroll back to show you real quick you can also click this little download CSV button unique feature can’t find anywhere else you can go ahead and make a bunch of these weigh them however you’d like um and and get some rolling form and all sorts of
Different stuff so again the unique feature here to download into a CSV think is pretty cool I know people that build three or four different models then put them all in a spreadsheet and look at them next to each other just as far as how how they rank in all of them
So all right number one in our model this week no surprise Scotty sheffler followed by Rory Patrick kley Xander Benny an look at you Benny on sneaky Good Year just needs to finish uh Chris Kirk like we said winner already Lucas Glover a guy I love even though he you know pulled out
Of a tournament on me Russell Henley standard for us uh and then ludvig ludig ninth Adam Scott already mentioned is 10th in the model Victor 11th Eric Cole followed by SMY Ryder and JT the postman not a bad top 15 a few surprises obviously the cheap uh down
Theboard guys being you know Glover Henley uh even even Eric Cole who is very good but in this field he’s gonna be uh you know a little further down the board obviously Benny on and Chris Kirk as well yeah some of these guys that I think are are the outliers that you’re
Talking about and then know Lucas Glover again we’re still in a sample where we’re getting them you know absolutely white hot yeah we didn’t do putting we’re getting the white hot uh Lucas Glover of of the tail end of last season some of the guys that are popping that
Are surprising you know when you turn think of um I guess Russell Henley even Chris Kirk um Eric Cole SMY Sam Ryder posting these guys that are that are up here higher are some of the better long-term guys and because we are capturing approach in three separate
Buckets here Tia green approach in rough greens and rag we are somewhat rewarding them for that strength in their uh in their game so uh Benny n getting a massive bup here in the top five but again tops in carry distance he’s fantastic around the green as well he’s
Top 10 there as well approach can be a little bit Wayward at times he one of my favorite bets nons Scotty bets last week at the waste management and it did not come together for for benan but that you know maybe an interesting guy to explore
This week in a in a spot where I could see it making a ton of sense so yeah I mean look getting either a couple of the best guys in the world and then a couple of the other guys that are maybe the next tier that are kind of the
California kids uh the disgusting brothers kley and uh Xander um yeah I mean that makes a ton of sense feel pretty good about the model when it uh it looks like that at the top so yeah that’s it’s pretty good have you made any not yet but I have guys circled I’m just
Price shopping at this point still Tuesday for Andy I’m always a full day behind you probably gonna go find the best number on JT I think he’s still a little depressed in the market because of you know what we had and if it’s gonna be close to 20 how he’s playing I
Can play him here I don’t even feel bad so not not super excited ever to be you know betting that guy because because I had so many struggles with him but just based on the prices I don’t think I can quite get there at Scotty even in a
Shorter field that’s a it’s a small number again and we saw it there’s just little little hiccups that are gonna be like hey this guy’s gonna finish top five but do you really want to bet him six to1 to win at this point so JT JT’s
On the board for me um maybe wendam Clark who I was wrong about a couple weeks ago again if he’s just going to have he has like the full speed magic beans sometimes it’s like [ __ ] oh shit’s just going to work out perfectly for you all the time and he’s a little further
Down the board I mean guy wanton a major he’s gonna be like 50 to one yeah it’s a tough field but I’m probably close on that one as well so and maybe open field was pretty tough yeah yeah I feel like it was not far from here either and yeah the these
These Fairways aren’t oh what is the word for it I almost said beveled camber is camber the word they were using at Lac you know how that there was the there a camber to it yeah not the sameon too those yeah we had Broncos and camers
It’s not the same but these do have some tilt to them these do have some positional golf that you need to play obviously so Windham Clark so those are those are my big three and you kind of have to take long shots because of it being 2024 and you know it’s like somebody
Somebody down the board I guess is just bound to at least be in it um I’m I’m trying to look who mine would be maybe shank G I don’t want to do that shank to the mile I mean that helps maybe yeah maybe Denny what’s Denny McCarthy’s price he’s gonna be 100 120
125 and McCarthy maybe that’s a play for me yeah there’s uh there’s some bigger numbers there yeah that just it’s to see sunjan uh so far down comparatively where he’s not typically um you know he’s I feel like he’s typically in like where the Windham Clark cam young pricing is uh sj’s far
Down there it’s not been playing particularly great um I started with JT as well again we’re just I think we just got to turn the page we played really good golf uh tried to G into the playoff last year that kind of turned the page golf was really good at the Ryder Cup
And it’s just continued as you said like he’s bookended T12 here over his last seven events the middle of that is like a bunch of top fives so he’s been really close what matters here is you he can hit it far um Club head speed’s good for
Even though he’s like 155 soak and wet the approach game is really good he could scramble his face off and I think his you know he has multiple top 10 here in the past and has contended here even last year not playing good golf he had a
T20 here so like he’s he’s comfortable here and can navigate this playside 1650 on Chris is what I’m seeing as the best number probably for you basically 16s across the board domestically Caesars as they typically do maybe a little shorter there at 14 so maybe I
Need to get a little quicker um on the draw I think you could have had a better price earlier so yeah Bo yeah I think they were 18s even yesterday in the afternoon so uh I also just can’t avoid it dude I mean I know he’s never been here before
But Ludi at 22 I don’t know I I took it like he’s obviously I feel better about a positional bet I’ll make that as well but 22 for this kid who just I don’t know just shows up and plays really good every single week uh first time it doesn’t doesn’t really matter to
Me and you look at the the model that we ran um you know Ru greens a rag top carrye distance top five Strokes gain terer green he was 11th uh bogie avoids fourth um you the approach stuff capturing the last 50 rounds I think doesn’t serve him well because when you
Look at actually smaller samples after maybe a little bit of a week start approach wise it’s been really good so uh really short number for this kid but just think we’re kind of there already and if you start to think of where is he gonna be in the next two to three
Years it’s kind of likey we’re just we got Scotty at 20 for a while that’s kind of going tax it’s a tax like I’m going to pay it it’s just a c Cal has these to it’s like you know I got to pay my cam tax so
I’m I’ll pay my tax uh and my only down theboard play is not even really down the board now there are some longer numbers and I understand why there are longer numbers I understand why people don’t like this play at all uh because you could find some I mean I took a 45
It’s a bad number there were 55s out there um I played Will zador um who look played pretty well um used to be attacks that’s it used to be attacks um and you know attacks here last year and looked at last year’s card he was on
The board but like like t13 last time out at Farmers we know there’s Farmers Coral Aries Farmers has been a place uh you know Tor has been good to him in the past again fourth here last year uh at the Genesis distance is strong there’s something maybe to be said for his his
Putting on these po greens he is a California Kid does have the you know the bigger broomstick but again gained throughout the bag in both of his last two starts the AMX and farmers and like again we were paying it’s built into to the number currently right whatever your
Concerns are with his health or his form or the amount of golf he’s played as of late this is a guy we would be paying you know 2022 so you get 55 that’s built in I think at this point so I think there even some bigger numbers I think I
Saw in the chat this morning in Discord bookmakers like 75 or had a 75 this morning so um that’s that’s a play for me for sure it’s it’s still 73 God I might tell you on that I think I’m in on that I think we’re gonna have the same
Card Jesus all right and here’s the thing and I want to touch on this I looked at lack’s model lack gave weights to three courses he gave weight to Augusta he gave weight to Tori on top of capturing Riv data he also gave weight to my one of my outside of Windam last
Year at 120 my best golf bending experience in my life was Southern Hills in the PGA Championship because I had both JT and zal uh and they went to a three- hole playoff and I had already won it was a fantastic wins 20 who wins
Who cares it’s a great place to be and even seeing that lack is is looking at Southern Hills as a thought this week felt really good about having Z looked after the fact so it was confirmation bias so I’ll take it yeah I love the data if it agrees with me yep so
Confirmation bias I’m okay with admitting that that’s the case and thank you uh Mr lack for for helping secure that for me but uh yeah those are my three and I think I’m done uh because I’ll go heavy with top 10 on Scotty and stuff like that here so yeah yeah cool
All right all right yeah for me same card except I’m throwing in some Windham Clark but I will tail you on Mr zot torus I’ll take some Wham Clark some JT and ludvig Luda and we’ll call it a day if you have anything obviously leave it
In the comments hit us up on Twitter if you want to get access build your own models furts golf.com there’s an article right on there that guides you step by step through how to get the Vivid deal if you’re not in a vivid State like we
Said DM us we’ll help you out we’ll get you a discount I hate to see you play full price for the first go round when you renew you’re paying full price so buddy BB so and get in early because I don’t know maybe pricing is going up soon yeah I
Might grandfather your ass in but pricing will go up eventually so yeah all right until next week good luck have fun bet responsibly and see you
