Set your reminders for the sports betting shows every week (all times Eastern):
Sunday 9pm – PGA Initial Research
Monday 9pm – PGA Data Dive
Wednesday 9pm – PGA DFS Tactics
Friday 9pm – Friday Night Chill Stream
Friday Night Chill Stream content will vary so stop by and hang out! Like someone once said “It’s like a box of chocolates…you’ll never know what you’re gonna get.”
Follow me on Social Media where my betting cards for the PGA tournament of the week will be placed:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Kapta1NKahl
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/Kapta1NKahl
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/kapta1nkahl
Kick: https://kick.com/kapta1nkahl
Subscribe to Gabe’s weekly article for a great beginning to your weekly research and give him a follow over at Twitter @glzisk
Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Genesis Invitational DFS tactics show we have a lot to cover the projected ownerships the updated forecast uh and all of the rankings that you will need to dominate this week’s DFS slate at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational we’ve
Got a fun show I’m looking forward to it let’s not waste any more time on an intro all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best tool or best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much
Smarter golf gam learn a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I post research weekly around the PGA Tour generally around course history and
Patterns of uh winners at that tournament the that comes out every Monday afternoon so if you want to see the weekly research I do on the PGA tour give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top
Player usage or player exposure for that week’s DFS slate that comes out after the DFS tactic show and calls calls on Wednesday evening so that’ll come out later this evening so if you want to see those pieces of information then give me a follow over at X and then lastly for
Social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he continues throughout the week giving you his own version of course uh history recent form and all of that and
Uh besides this week when he took this week off due to some family obligations um you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat if you are a subscriber um it’s been a little chaotic especially for for me this February as I’ve been busy but you will be able to
Join him in his substack chat uh for the DFS talk he’s gracious enough to host me over there and we continue the DFS talk over there after Call’s calls so if you aren’t a subscriber you’re really missing out go show him some support uh follow him over on social media and
Subscribe to that article it is free to do by the way and then lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which I remembered to type up before the uh show this evening so we’re off to a
Good start already uh in addition to the poll question uh I want to hear from you all in that regard but who are you targeting who are you fading away from have you made any Wagers how do you think Rivier is going to play this week with the amount of precipitation that
Southern California has had in the past month or so so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 20124 Genesis Invitational and we’re going to start as we always do on a Wednesday evening for the DFS tactic show over at windfinder and the updated super forecast looks like we already
Have two people in chat awaken and P thanks for jumping in there much appreciated looking forward to this week after what I thought was going to be a good Waste Management turned out to be uh quite a dud at least for me so we’re
Going to try to turn uh at least my um recent lack of success around and we’re going to try and figure out how we are going to attack this signature event but with a cut but as promised there is a poll question so the poll question this
Evening uh instead of doing anything for in or in terms of you know thought-provoking DFS or anything like that I decided to take a step back and let’s have a little bit of fun here the poll question for this evening good evening Jeff thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated we will definitely
Get to the data here shortly we’re going to get through this um through this windfinder forecast first but first thing we’re going to do on a DFS tactic show let’s cover or let’s go over this poll question what hole do you think of when you think of Riviera Country Club
Is it the par five first the massive downhill t-shot is it the par 3 sixth with the iconic bunker in the middle of the green is it the par 410th the the very big risk reward very narrow skinny green um you’ve seen Eagles and triple Bogies
There um a very very fun hole or is it the par 4 18th the very tough uphill kind of like a rotunda finish where uh the gallery is all surrounding the green uh kind of like an Amphitheater so decided to be or take a little bit of a step back with the poll
Question this evening and just have a little bit of fun I want to see what the community thinks what hole do you think of when you think of Riviera Country Club so I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts but on to some strategy for this week let’s take a look at the
Forecast at least uh you know 10 or so hours away from opening tea time look there doesn’t look to be much there did there wasn’t much for uh or when we looked at the forecast Monday hasn’t changed all much still a little bit chilly High maybe 60 tomorrow high in
The mid-50s on Friday yes this is a no cut event but I do not see anything that would signify that you would want to um separate out a portion of the field um looks very very calm in the mornings and then maybe picks up to you know 9 or 10
Miles hour in terms of gusts in in the afternoon and that’s the way it is for both days so I don’t see any um favor or you know portion of the of the field that’s going to have an advantage just play your guys who you think is going to play best at Riviera
This week no real U favor there and if we take a a step back look at the full forecast much the same Saturday very calm in the morning wind picks up in the afternoon now the only change will be if this system on Monday indeed gets moved up to Sunday
In my um watch throughout the week it seems like it’s backed up in time so we’ll have to take a look at that um and perhaps that’ll be a factor for Showdown slates come Sunday but in terms of weekl long DFS contest we’re not going to factor any in any wind this
Week it looks all pretty darn calm and you know just slightly picks up in the afternoon which is um par for the course generally anyway so with that we’re going to move over to Fantasy National and the one um um filter that we’ll kind of review I
Don’t I can’t say for certain that Riviera is going to play tough all four rounds especially with the amount of moisture that they’ve had in Southern California and all that but generally speaking Riviera is a very difficult test of golf so when rounds are difficult in the past 12 months your top
Performers have been Scotty Sheffer Rory Victor hin Tommy Fleetwood wam Clark Patrick kley Jordan spe Xander Colin moraa Matt Fitz Patrick and Ricky Fowler so give these players a decent boost uh if you have not finished your lineups or if you’re choosing between player a and
Player B you know give these players a a decent boost as Riviera generally speaking is a prettyy difficult test of golf uh certainly not on the easy end uh we could look at average but I am i t generally loathe looking at average so we’re just looking at difficult um if
You want to continue on down and I’ll zoom in just a little bit here uh for you uh finishing out maybe the top 15 Russell Henley Ben on maxom sep straa and on down those are your top players when rounds are difficult the other into the Spectrum players in the field this
Week who have not played well in the last 12 months when rounds are difficult Tom hogy Charlie Hoffman Nick Taylor Matt coocher Nick Dunlap only two rounds Grayson Marley only four rounds tiger only one round so take that with a lot of grain of salt as it’s a very small
Sample size Justin Thomas Luke list Sam Ryder Nick Hardy Kevin Yu Sheamus power and on down those are your players that have not played well win rounds have been difficult in the past 12 months all right with that we’ve got a lot to cover got some lineups to to make and and the
Price board to dissect so let’s not uh spend too much more time let’s go ahead and cover the mixed condition model that I made for this week at the at Riviera for the Genesis we’re starting off with 15% in Strokes gained approach I just think that this is going to be the most
Important um aspect of the tournament this week um you can argue a couple of different ways around um what the most important could be I just think it’s going to be Strokes G approach especially since with the softer conditions um I don’t think the ball is
Going to travel as far you’re not going to get as much roll out as you do in the fairways uh that you normally get at Riviera so I think iron play is going to be that much more Paramount 10% in around the green these greens are difficult to hit even though they are
The fourth largest Greens on tour they are still very difficult to hit that that contributes to the difficulty of Riviera but um the greens themselves are um undulating they are protected uh with you know either false fronts or sharp edges that repel Wayward t uh Wayward
Approach shots so that’s why I wanted to really focus on approach and get some around the Green in there because around the green is generally a pretty big factor at Riviera only 5% in putting and you’ll see courses multiple this is the POA Ana filter where we to filter down
To Pebble Beach Riviera and Tory Pines but I’m only doing 5% cuz we’re only able to go back the past two years um so not a whole lot of data in here but I’ve kind of made up for that with adding another putting statistic that we’ll see
At the very end of the mixed condition model but 5% in putting on PO Ana 5% distance I do think distance will be a will be a factor but I did not want to U put so much emphasis into that um that you um you skew the data and I think
That was probably one of the errors that I made last week at Phoenix normally Phoenix does promote a lot of the bombers but it was very very um what’s the word I’m looking for it was just not a factor last week at Phoenix when you go back and check
Uh the uh stats from last week’s tournament distance just wasn’t a thing so that’s what threw you know my results off and partially why I had a bad week so only 5% in distance but I do think distance helps you uh more so than uh than being a a fairway finder does at
Riviera so 5% in distance 10% in Greens when scoring is difficult um I mentioned that this is probably where I was going to go with the combination of metric and filter uh generally like looking at greens when um scoring is difficult that’s generally when greens are the most important greens are important here
At Riviera so it just made sense 10% I really toyed with you know five 5% or 10% uh I just have a strong gut feeling that greens are going to be important we’ve talked all week how bogey avoidance is going to be a big factor so 10% in bogey avoidance when rounds are
Difficult to par 10% in prox total proximity I’m not as confident with this metric but the data really backed up looking at total procs as opposed to a specific length um so this is one where you know if you wanted to cut back on it
5% I wouldn’t blame you for that I’m not terribly confident in it uh going with the metrics on that so 10% in total procs 5% in total par 3s there’s no particular range that seems to stand out here at Riviera 10% in par
4S and 10% on par 4S 450 to 500 we saw throughout the week that this length of par fours just an astronomical amount of weight uh compared to the rest of the par fours uh a little bit over 50% of your Strokes gain in power fours come to
This range six of the 11 power fours fall to this range on the scorecard just a just a massive amount of correlation between playing these holes well and your performance at Riviera but I did not want to ignore the risk reward par 4 and I didn’t want to ignore the shorter
Par 4 is the ones from 400 450 so a lot of emphasis in this specific range you can think about think about it you can uh argue that there’s 20% here 10% alone in this range and then 10% % in all par fours So you you’re covering a
Lot in this range but I think this is going to be the second most important factor this week behind Strokes ganed approach so a lot of emphasis in this range of par fours and in par fours in general 5% in the par FS 550 to 600 look
There the two back nine par fives play to about 2/3 of The Strokes gain total in terms of the par FS here at Riviera most everybody takes advantage of the par five first so it’s really how you perform on those two par fivs on the back nine and that’s why I’ve isolated
That but it is only two Hool so that’s why it’s only sitting at 5% and then lastly to make up for what I wanted to put 10% in total putting uh just didn’t feel comfortable putting 10% in such a small subset of data instead I’ve got 5% in three put avoidance on
POA anag greens the last two years and Riviera with the amount of the size of these greens and the fact that these greens are generally pretty fast three putt avoidance or three putts happen quite often here um so three put avoidance is usually a decent Factor so that’s how I
Kind of made up for the um lack of 5% in putting if you will so there’s the mixed condition model that I’ve made for this week at Riviera look if off the te plays a big factor I’m going to be obviously weak I just don’t see off the te
Mattering a whole lot that’s why I’ve only that’s why I’m only looking at 5% driving distance I just don’t see off the te playing a big factor you know of putting if just putting in general is a bigger Factor uh perhaps Bird’s gain is something we could have looked at or if
There’s a specific range of proximity I’ll be weak to that but I I feel pretty good with the metrics and the filters this week as opposed to last week when I was confident with the metrics maybe not necessarily filters I feel pretty good with this mixed condition model and how Riviera has
Played generally year over-year so with all that said let’s go ahead and run to Microsoft Excel the reveal of my rankings this week my top 10 goes as such I have Victor havland number one Scotty Sheffer second Patrick kley third Xander and Max Homa round out my top five Rory col morawa
Wendham Clark Adam Scott and Russell Henley round out my top 10 little bit of an asteris here you can see he’s really catapulting up in my rankings due to the lack of of projected ownership per fantasy Nation uh but otherwise you know here in the in
The top nine I don’t really have a problem you see just how much or how low these course values are uh prior course performance at Rivier is generally a very very big deal and you can see these you know very small course values and how they’re catapulting up in my rankings as well
Now uh Victor hin being number one I won’t argue too much about it I think I still would put sheffler number one technically but um with the less ownership and the lower course value that’s why Victor havin jumps Scotty Sheffer in my rankings so quick very quickly just for a reminder for
Returning viewers or if you are a new viewer for your information my rankings are based on three criteria the FC rank which is a pure analytics number based on the mixed condition model that we just went over the metrics the percentages that are in that model and
Then FC spits out a ranking a course value which is an attempt at giving a player a numerical value based on how well they have played that course in The Last 5 Years the lower the number the better and of course we are playing DFS so we are trying to find very very
Unique plays against our fellow contestants hence why Russell Henley Rises so much in my rankings although I’m not too terribly um fond of that um so anyway there’s a look at my top 10 I I really can’t argue too much about it except for Russell Henley I’m not nearly
As high on him as it would might seem otherwise you see you know nine of these top 10 are you know in the top 10 in terms of the pure analytics the one player that is not is ludvig OAR who finished ninth analytically he’s getting hurt by the
Fact that he has never played a competitive round at Riviera so we don’t know if he’ll like it or not chances are he probably will but since we don’t know he is getting hurt by that value there is a chance he does not like Riviera anyway there’s a look at my
Rankings enough of that let’s get through or let’s sort on the price board and figure out where the chalk is and how we can maneuver around that so in the five digits this week in the 10ks we have four players we have Scotty sheffler at 115 we have Rory at 112
Xander at 101 Victor hin at 10,000 even again you see all four of these players are going to be very high in my rankings so I’m not sure I’m going to be able to fade any one of these players I still think I would make sheffler my number
One player he’s getting hurt essentially by the high projected ownership cuz he is played Riviera really darn well but so as Victor Xander has obviously California uh narrative or California guy of the four in this in in the top or in the 10ks I think of the four I think I’m
Probably lowest on Rory like the rankings only because if I’m up here at Rory’s price I’m going to try and find 300 somewhere to get Scotty Sheffer I’m just more confident in Scotty sheffler performing well here than I am Rory and I could be very very wrong about that
But look at all the things that Scotty Sheffer is number one at approach greens when it’s difficult bogey avoidance when it’s difficult which includes putting first in total procs second and Par fours you know even on PO Ana he’s top 20 in this loaded field on POA Anna he
Putts POA pretty darn well and you see Rory just hasn’t in the past 24 months so again smaller sample size but it is something to note that Scotty’s actually been pretty good on POA Anna despite the um you know the putter generally being pretty cold
So uh I still think I would make Sheffer number one it’s very close between Sheffer and hin because I love Victor H this week um I think Victor hin is going to have a very big tournament I’ll make Xander third and Rory fourth only because with Rory’s price I’m just going
To try to find 300 and go to sheffler good evening Gabe thanks for jumping in chat much appreciate it hopefully your semi vacation I guess it is uh is going well um and I appreciate uh what you have shared with me um I go with uh purely by the fantasy National
Projected ownerships Gabe was kind enough to send me his source of projected ownerships so in comparison Scotty sheffler sitting at 30% which you’d have to kind of expect um considering how dominant he really has been lately Rory right about the same Rory at 17 A2 versus 15 at Fantasy
National Xander 20 versus 18 so pretty darn close and Victor hin 20 versus 16 so uh all four of these getting a little bit more love in according to gab Source than they are at Fantasy National which You’ probably generally expect anyway um like I said I’m going to go with Scotty
Sheffler number one in this range but I’m going to have a ton of Victor hin this is chalk I’m going to eat I don’t care I am all in on Victor hin this week going to use him uh and I and I think he’s going to have a big big tournament
This week um simple as that moving down to the nines hom Colin warawa Patrick kley lud Vic obar Justin Thomas and Jordan spe look uh I mentioned how Oar really Falls in my rankings just because this is an arbitrarily High number he’s not played a competitive round at Riv um
We don’t know if he’s going to like it chances are he will this seems like a very good ludic Ober fit course but we just don’t know that for certain especially since H and morawa and kley have proven time and time again that they like playing here especially Max hom uh in the
9ks uh hom sitting at 15 per gab source and 17 at Fantasy National so he’s the first player that’s actually under um fantasy National Mor CWA sitting at 21% so he’s Tech I mean he’s right there Patrick cley at 21% so he’s a little bit higher and then Oar much
Lower so the play the members of fantasy National much higher on Ludi obar sitting at 24% per fantasy National 16% or 16 and a half or so uh via Gabe Source Justin Thomas pretty darn close about a percent off Jordan spe 16% per Gabe Source 8% with fantasy
National it’s a dangerous play here but you can’t play everybody so I think I’m going to plant my flag on Fading Jordan’s bee the irons haven’t been great uh now he is certainly you know very good around the green uh avoids the bogeys but just like his irons the
Proximity hasn’t been great in the last 36 rounds he’s actually been horrendous on ha Ana greens he has played very very well here and I understand that a lot of pundits have uh spe on their card I think I’m going to take a stand uh especially considering seeing per gab Source speed at
16% I think I’m going to take a stand and Jordan speed’s going to be the first of maybe a couple players here that if they play well I’m going to lose I’m probably going to fade spe maybe full fading in the um in the 9ks look I’m going to have
Both of these two I don’t care this is more chalk I’ll eat you can see the kinds of lineups I’m probably building with a lot of concentration in these three players kley is fine he kind of let me down uh two weeks ago at Pebble but kentley’s fine uh lots of good here
His only bad really is in the par threes um and don’t forget maxom is the number one putter on PO Ana greens the last two years and for as much as morawa is not a good putter morawa is top 10 on in this field the last two years on poaa
He just loves POA again California guy kentley has been really bad on POA but I think he’s better than what this is showing so in the 9ks look Thomas is a really really tough pill to swallow for 21 a half% but I mean he’s been playing lights out lately
So it’s really really hard to fade him Oar I’m not certain what I’m going to do with ludvic Oar this week again this really does feel like a good fit for lud obar and he’s much less projected owned um at the other source than fantasy National but you got reasons to to
Perhaps limmit your usage of him for sure he has not been the greatest when it’s difficult very small sample size because he hasn’t played a whole lot of difficult rounds on the PGA tour but he’s not been great when it’s difficult so if you want to go with that narrative
That is a that is a strong angle you can take in trying to limit your usage of Oar or fade him out Right um Thomas I’m sure I’ll have a little bit just be a little just be cautious because he’s going to be so popular so with the nine Cas I’m using these two kind of lukewarm on kley and Thomas due to their due to their ownerships lud VI oar is a pure wild
Card in my in my eyes he’s struggled when it’s difficult but this does feel like a very good ludvic Oar fit and I’m going to fade spe and I’ll lose if spe plays well moving to the Eight’s not going to go through each single player but going to highlight a couple players
Again Windham Clark I really like this week he’s not going to be as unique as he was uh last week uh at least uh compared to Upper tier plays but he’s played Riviera very well I think the irons are a little bit better than what’s showing he’s always been very
Good around the green Fifth and greens third and bogey when it’s difficult demolishes I mean demolishes the links the par fors that are so very important at Riviera you got to like that he’s also the number one player on the two par fives of the back nine that
You have to really really take advantage of now he’s got some issues sure par 3es have been really bad three put avoidance on POA has been pretty bad but I like Windam Clark quite a bit um seeing him at 12% per Gabe source as opposed to 19 or
19 and a half at Fantasy National I really like seeing wam Clark with that lower ownership I’ll be using him some I like Cameron young quite a bit 16% versus 12% I like that a lot too the ball striking hasn’t it has not appeared to be there but I was really uh
Impressed by his performance last week at Phoenix greens he plays he plays well when it’s difficult and he’s played extremely well here because you see the analytics really didn’t like him but I’m going to be using Cameron young I really like Cameron young this week the one player
That I’m I’m kind of on the fence about is Tommy Tommy Fleetwood um looking pretty unique in terms of uh in the in the 8ks 8% per fantasy National 12% um the other source so you know average those two if you will 10% I just don’t know what to make of
Tommy he’s played okay here um the irons have been kind of lackluster but he’s generally really good when it’s difficult when around the green matters so I just don’t have a strong feel on Tommy uh that’s just the best way I can say it uh if you have a
Strong feeling either way whether you have a strong feeling he will play well use it you have strong feeling he won’t play well don’t use him I’m just on the fence I don’t know what to do with Tommy cuz in the 8ks I’m going to be using
Windham Clark going to be using quite a bit of Cam young I want to like tagala but there is every possibility that he could just fall apart as he tends to do sometimes when it’s difficult you see everybody else in the 8ks with the exception of maybe sunjay who will get
To in the lower 8ks but I mean tagala has been really really bad hitting greens and avoiding Bogies especially when it’s difficult and as much as he’s been good around the green like the putter I would have liked to have seen the putter be in the top 10 for as bad
As you know the avoid the bogey avoidance has been and the greens has been so I don’t know about seah seah sitting at 12% as well uh per gab sour 17% here he might be the second player that I will lose to if he plays well um I just don’t have a great
Feeling with tagala much the same with Sam burns like he’s an elite putter but man this is this is really troubling here kind of troubling here so the putter can keep him in the tournament that’s for sure 19% per gab Source exact same percentage really so Burns is Burns is
Probably a good fade for me as well so instead of tagala I’ll probably switch course and say spe and burns are my two big Fades so far Fitzpatrick’s fine I was really high on him last week he played okay he generally does play his best when it’s difficult as you can
See here 23rd and Fifth and the two difficult to par metrics but he’s got a lot of bad things as you can see the 44th purely by the Numbers the irons haven’t been great proximity par fors he’s got a lot of bad things going on
But he does have a top previous top 10 here ow he does have a previous top 10 here so and it was a recent previous top 10 so take the good with the bad he’s sitting much higher he’s he’s kind of the inverse here of of tagala and Windham Clark and Cameron young
Fitzpatrick for Fantasy National is sitting at 9% per Gabe Source he’s at 165% so a lot more of the my guess is general public is on Fitzpatrick versus members of fantasy National Adam Scott loves Riviera I I you can’t you can’t deny that fact at all he does not have a bad statistic
Across here he does not have a pink or red statistic but that is a whole lot of that’s a whole lot of chalk and a and a a chalky Adam Scott usually doesn’t play play out well for you so I’m sure I’ll have him a little bit I mean he did rate
In the top 10 for me in my rankings and he’s been so exceptional here at Riviera but I’m going to be underweight on Adam Scott don’t get me wrong I’m not going to have 25% Adam Scott just I’m just not there um Tom Kim this does not feel like a good Tom Kim
Course he’s pretty darn unique sunj two and a half per fantasy National eight and a half per gab Source we’re starting to get into the territory where you’re going to want to start playing some sunjay and he’s been okay here he hadn’t been great but he’s been
Okay here I don’t know if this is the week you start firing on sunj but it’s going to be soon it’s going to be soon if he’s going to start being very very unique he’s just too much of a talented player to let slide at 2 and a half% um
Jday no thanks so in the 8ks like I mentioned I’ll use Cameron young quite a bit love Windam Clark don’t know what to do with t uh with with Tommy Fen now’s fine G to be chalky be aware of that um going to be chalky but a fine play
Fitzpatrick’s kind of interesting if you think it’s going to be very difficult I’m not really too much here in the lower eights moving into the upper sevens look love Wills Al torus going to be chalky you can guess that um will zorus is sitting at only 8% per gab sours that’s
Surprising to me I got to believe Wills zorus is going to be closer to Fantasy Nationals projected ownership but even so I’m going to use Wills alturus love Wills alur this week week um he’s played exceptional here the real interesting one is hoard in the upper sevs um I kind of like
Hoard sitting right at that 10 and a half% at both places a lot of the metrics don’t seem all that great and again he really Falls because this course value he’s never played here ah this kind of like Oar this does this feels like a pretty good good Hoy guard
Course um eighth in distance which I think is going to play pretty good plays these length of par fives pretty well very very small sample size but he’s put Po in okay kind of like hoard I think you might be able to gain some uniqueness there I mentioned how Russell
Henley I I would not have put him in my top 10 he’s really really catapulting in my rankings thanks to the very low projected ownership per fantasy National um 10 and a half at the other source I don’t know I think it’s okay I just don’t I’m not excited about Russell
Henley I think he’s fine I think he’s a probably a safe fairly High floor I just don’t think you have much of a ceiling with Russell Henley number one around the green players is really comforting to have around Riv but his putting on PO is not
Good is not good and he’s not really good at the length of these par fives that you have to take advantage of so take that for what you will so in the upper sevens going to use a whole lot of Wills out tourus I’ll be overweight on
Him uh and hoard is kind of interesting as well in the mid sevs um depending on how you how you define 7,400 I’ll just say 76 7574 I’m all over Hideki love Hideki matama this week 8% % per gab Source only 12% of fantasy National this dude loves
Riviera top 15 still with the irons top five still around the green the par Forge need to get cleaned up yes but he destroys these this length of par fors and he’s not a total failure with the putter on PO Ana it’s not great it is Hideki after all but he’s had enough
Rounds historically at Riviera that he’s been positive generally here so kind of like keki as in a lot I’m going to be way overweight on Hideki and I’ll lose if hii does not play well um not really all that excited about anybody else in the mid sevens Chris Kirk might be somewhat
Interesting um top 10 in approach proximity’s been great I just I’m really concerned he does not play this length of power fours well the putter is mediocre I don’t know I don’t have a I don’t have a strong feeling with Chris Kirk he could be interesting because he’s going to be
Unique 6% and 6% at both places so going to be unique if you have a strong feeling moving into the low sevens uh going to absolutely ignore Cory Connor he does not play Riviera well a lot of that due to the fact that he is just not good around the
Green do not like Cory Connor at all he’s not a good putter on PO Anna three put avoidance is really bad you can’t see the number but you can see the coloring it’s deep red so completely out on Cory coners elsewhere in the low sevens I don’t know um Hustler is your most
Projected own player down here but it’s also the player that I would have recommended but it’s not great uh um par fours and of the length are spectacular but you know fairly middling with the putter doesn’t have a lot of distance he hasn’t played particularly well here most chalky play in the low
Sevens I can I can probably get away from Bo Hustler fairly easily I just don’t like a whole lot down here I really don’t just like in the eights I didn’t like a whole lot in the low eights don’t like a whole lot in the low sevens I’ve been really bottoming out my
Lineups with Hideki maybe a little bit of Ricky just because Ricky sitting at two and a half and 2% at both places two and a half at one 2% at the other I’m just going to play Ricky for the pure uniqueness value that you’re getting off
Of him that’s where I’ve been kind of bottoming out in the sevens we’ll get to the sixes I do like a couple of 6K plays here but um I just don’t like a whole lot in in the lower sevens I just don’t so let’s talk about those 6K plays I want to
Mention maybe two to three players here first one’s Kurt kyama and he doesn’t rate out well he’s actually in the bottom 10 for me but he’s actually fairly solid when it’s difficult you think about his win last year at Bay Hill the irons are pretty good you see Fant National
Members like him quite a bit now he’s very unique well he’s about 8 and a half per gab source so a lot of people seem to be gravitating to kittama at 11 and a half it’s a it’s a fade I thought he was going to be a
Little bit more unique but it’s worth a look I do like um the style of game he plays I think it fits Riv the putter is is really bad on on POA so you’d have to stomach that but I mean there’s not a lot of great Putters on PO Ana say for
Maybe two or three um the next player I want to mention is Tom hogi again getting a little bit of attention but very good with the irons the round the green this is where Tom hogi is going to do backfire on me I’m playing Tom hogi for the irons
The fact that he’s not going to take himself in theory out of the hole thanks to hitting a lot of these greens and you think about his win it was on PO Ana at Pebble Beach he generally putts POA pretty darn well so as long as he’s
Hitting the greens I think he’s going to be in this tournament because if he has to rely around the green he’s just really really bad so I’ll play Tom hogi a little bit I wanted to mention him Adam zinon was my highest ranked 6K play
I don’t I’m not in love with it he’s really catapulting in my rankings thanks to this course value it’s only one tournament he did finish TI for ninth last year it’s not nothing but he’s got a lot and I mean a lot of really deep red statistic does not hit greens when
It’s difficult he does not a great bogey avoider when it’s difficult I generally look at Adams vincon when it’s shorter and when it’s on the easier side so I’m not in love with it I’m sure I’ll have him maybe a time or two cuz he is my top 6K
Play but I’m not in love with it the other the other name I want to mention other than tiger cuz if you’re a tiger fan or if you want if you want to root for him or whatever uh nothing analytically says to use tiger this is
Just a this is a Sentimental play if you’re wanting to the other name I want to give you is luk list again luk list very very unique well I would have said that see at just under 8% so 8 8% and 10% look it’s all about the ball striking
Because you see the bogey avoidance is the worst in the field when it’s difficult the putter is you know second or third worst in this field on PO Ana but again you think about his win it was at the farmers poana so I you’re playing luk list for the
Ball striking and honestly in terms of three putt of avoidance he’s actually really good three put avoider so there’s a look at the price board how I see things for Rivier this week where the chalk is for two per two different sources and again thanks to Gabe for
Sharing his source with me let’s start making some lineups we’re going to start with tiar lineups and then we’ll move on to Classic where we try to maneuver around all the chalk so for those who play tiers tier one is Scotty sheffler Rory and Xander I think it’s a pretty easy Scotty
Sheffler if you think you if you think Xander is going to be astronomically more unique than take Xander I think Rory is a pretty clear third in tier one I’ll go Scotty Xander’s not bad if you’re trying to squeeze out some uniqueness tier two Victor havin hom
Morawa Klay and and Justin Thomas I love to too my goodness this is going to be difficult I think I’m going to take Victor hin number one he’s probably my pick to win this week uh good night Gabe thanks for dropping in chat and thanks again for sharing uh your info much
Appreciated I’m sure we’ll catch up at some point um throughout the week or weekend thanks again for jumping in chat and good luck this week I’m going to take Victor hin in tier 2 I really like Victor hin but he’s probably going to be fairly talkie maybe not with morawa in there so
I’ll go I’ll go havland I’ll go H second in tier 2 I’ll go morawa third actually I’ll just go in the order that they’re listed here I’ll go havin hom morawa and these two are very very close in my opinion kley fourth and JT Fifth and it’s not that I
Hate JT I just really like hland I think K’s fine morawa is really good I don’t think you can go wrong too many places in tier two but give me hoflin tier three lud obar Jordan spe Tony fenale tommmy Fleetwood and sahit tala for as
Much as I like tier two it’s not that I hate tier three I just don’t know where to go oar is a wild card this seems like a good fit but he’s probably going to be pretty chalky I don’t like spe this week fenale kind of you know middling in my eyes
Really likes this place but he’s probably going to be fairly chalky in terms of Tears Tommy’s a pure you know for me is a wild card I don’t know what to do with Tommy Fleetwood and then tagala I mentioned how I have some concerns so in tier three I guess I will
Go with fenale just to try to save some uniqueness off of Oar but I’m not terribly confident it I all I’ll say say is that spe is fifth for me in tier five so I’ll go fenale then probably Oar Tommy tagala and then speed tier four Sam Burns cam young
Fitzpatrick Wham Clark Adam Scott Tom Kim and sunjay for me I’m choosing between Windam Clark and Cameron young with Adam Scott an honorable mention if you’re really really f focused on prior course history I’ll take I’ll take Windam Clark it’s pretty close between Clark and Cameron young but I’ll take wam
Clark it’s really close though tier five jday zorus Keegan JT Poston hoard Henley and Cole for me this is just a two-man tier depends on the construction of your team if you think you have found enough uniqueness take Wills Al Taurus which I will I think I found enough unique uness
In this construction so I’ll take will zorus if you’ve been chalky the entire way through I think this is an opportune time to try to hit a home run with hoard I think you’ll I think he could surprise this week I’ll take zot torus hoard if
You’ve been way too chalky up to this point then lastly tier six we have hogi CZ zinon list putam tiger and Lucas Glover again same thing if you’re sentimental you want to cheer for Tiger take tiger nothing analytically says to to play him if you want to root for him go ahead
I understand it and he’s not been terrible at Riv for what it’s worth for me I’m probably going to take luk list and rely on the ball striking Tom hogi could be interesting as well and Vincent rated it out the best but I’m I’ve got some concerns on
Vincon so give me luk list because of the ball striking Tom hogi is fairly close second this tier’s construction goes Sheffer havland fenale uh Windham Clark will Al torus and Luke list all right let’s go to tii or gosh dang it let’s go to classic lineups figure out how we want to
Maneuver around all the chalk in the field this week how we’re going to build some unique lineups that gain some leverage on our fellow contestants and a reminder if you are able to catch the show live I ask that you uh participate in the poll question this
Evening looks like uh the winner so far is the par 3 six with the uh bunker in the middle of the green again the poll question this evening what hole do you think of when you think of Riviera Country Club right now it is the par 3
Six with the very iconic bunker in the middle of the green all right so if we’re going to try to duplicate a lot of these lineups that seem to be in our big gpps the first question is are they playing Sheffer or they not so let’s start off with a Scotty Sheffer
Lineup and then at the bottom here youve got list at least per fantasy National gaining some attention hogy gaining some attention it seems like the consensus has been Bo Hustler at the bottom at 7,000 so we’ll try to squeeze in as much as we can only going down to B Hustler let’s see
Elsewhere the next highest um players here the Cam Davis at 8% Connor’s at 8% uh per gabes source but where else are they really going I mean cam DAV is only seven there hii is getting some love per fantasy National I’m trying to save him for the lineups
That I really like but it might actually be Hideki Eric Cole also getting some some play so we’ll try Hideki that’s to um um Eric Cole 10% hoard 11% zot torus is definitely in this mix as well poston’s getting a lot at 133% on this other Source let’s try let’s throw in Eric Cole because I’m not particularly on Eric Cole this week you see this is the problem with Scotty Sheffer if you’re not willing to drop down into the sixes you got you’re going to have to hover in these 7ks that’s not easy to to do per
Fantasy Nationals Al tus is going to be in this uh he’s quite a bit more unique per Gabe Source Adam Scott’s getting a whole lot of love and he’s right at 8200 so you’re looking at probably Sheffer Adam Scott probably Wills lurus I guess at least per fantasy National 16%
And I I love alatus I’ll be using Sheffer this week and I love matama but it’s going to be pretty difficult to play a lot of these players together and gain any any semblance of uniqueness that’s that’s a chalky looking lineup with um Scotty sheffler if our fellow contestants are not going to
Sheffler uh again we’ll just use um fantasy National projected ownerships you’re going colore Kawa Oar um Chon Thomas might be a bit too much say Burns now let’s let’s drop down the wind Clark who I really like but he’s chalky you know you’re in hovering in these
High sevens High to Mid sevens to fill out your lineup this could be Wills alus might be able to squeeeze it in Adam Scott depend yeah they can squeeze into Adam Scott with this um and we’re looking at 7,400 per player this is probably Hadi and Bo Hustler per fantasy
National they could use kittama we could have used him with um with Scotty sheffler uh again this is just Wills alator per fantasy nationalist 20% this is gross this is horrendous there’s as much as I like you know three maybe even four of these players you just can’t put
Them on the same team that’s just you’re way too common you’re not going to rise in your big gbps now if you’re playing double UPS or 50/50s probably a fairly solid lineup um myself I don’t think I would use Adam Scott but morawa solid Windham Clark solid oar
Is U probably going to take to Riviera pre ONN well but in terms of your big gpps this is just way too chalky you can’t do it so how are we going to maneuver around these well we’ll start where we started with the chalky lineups let’s try building you know a a fairly
Unique Scotty Sheffer lineup or at least more unique than what uh what we built for the chalk so we’ll start with Scotty and I I gave you a a couple of players in the in the six K uh you might you might throw in tiger with this
Absolutely um LC list not going to be as unique um Tom hogy probably not going to be as unique as you think but you’re definitely going to gain uniqueness off of Bo hustler in my opinion and kittama in my opinion um again if you’re a tiger fan
Go with tiger I’m going to throw Tom hogy into this um in this construction and we don’t have to even come down into the low Sevens at all the rest of this way um now you might have some trouble fitting in another 9k you could do it probably has to be
Justin Thomas or Klay or Oar I don’t think there’s any reason why kley won’t play well here I mean again going to be fairly chalky but everybody up here is getting used um more you know more so than not but it’s going to be really hard to get kley into this
Lineup as you can see by the remaining price that we have so instead I’m going to try to drop into the AK I I’ll go Cameron young now per fantasy National he is getting some attention but he’s not really uh per Gabe Source I mentioned sunjay this could be
An opportunity to Target sunj at least per fantasy National 2 and a half% a very very talented player who’s played okay here in the past Let’s see we had 85 Fitzpatrick could be interesting as well not really on Tom Kim not really on Jason day yeah let’s throw in Fitzpatrick on
This to get a little bit of of uniqueness 5% see I’m just I’m just not there with J day 5 and A2 per fantasy national uh per Gabe Source looking at seven and a half so yes unique but the worst irons the worst irons in this field the last 12 months or 36
Rounds he’s pretty good at he’s very good at avoiding bogeys but again that proximity number really really bad these par fours he’s been really really bad he’s an elite putter on PO Ana he’s one of the probably the three to four guys you can depend on on PO Ana but on top
Of the approach the approach of the proximity I want you to take a notice par Forge red par 3es red par fives red where is he going to do his damage I I just I just don’t see it with J day he’s been okay here I just don’t see it I would much
Rather play a chalky Wills Alat Taurus and find uniqueness elsewhere than than play a a j day who I’m just not confident in like you and I agreed on quite a bit last week awaken this is one where we’ll will will differ I am nowhere near jday
Um you know to round out this lineup don’t really like a whole lot in the low seven so the this would be like hii and at 75 um I mean a c could be fairly interesting I suppose not in love with it I I don’t love McCarthy
Either this is the problem this is the issue with building these Scotty Sheffer lineups straa maybe um where’s 71 um very good putter I don’t I don’t think POA is his preferred surface I would much rather look at sep straa on uh Bermuda struggles with the distance but
I don’t hate it especially since you know he is generally pretty darn good at not taking himself out of the hole when it’s difficult again see his performance at the Honda or what’s now called the cognizant classic he’s been very good there that is a very difficult um course I don’t hate
It again I would just I would come down to a kittama almost uh before him a hogy I’m just I just don’t like a whole lot in the low sevens so for me I would just go Ricky and and hii leave 100 on the table yes 12% might
Not seem the best but you know the other Scotty Sheffer lineup was 16 or so percent coming down for Tom hogi Luke list maybe even tiger I really love Hideki I’ll be boned if Hideki doesn’t play well Ricky is quite speculative but he’s played okay here it’s Patrick just likes
Difficult courses Riv is difficult cam Young’s played well here and Scotty sheff the best player in the world but where I’ve been going most often is in these um Victor havin um Victor hin Xander Max hom type lineups I’ve been going like Victor Mora was going to be chalky but I
Just very very confident in him and I’ve been boming out these teams at hii uh or Ricky now I’ve been hovering much more in the you know upper sevens playing a a will alatus playing a very speculative Nikolai hoard thinking that it should be a good
Fit for him again this is Ricky which you know I’m not going to try to do too often because his game’s kind of uh kind of up in the air right now but you know these are the kind of lineups that I’ve been building these Victor hin morawa these Xander homas hin
Klays um things of that nature uh to try and and get a little bit of uniqueness off of some of these uh other players like JT like Oar and whatnot that’s what I have for you all I’ll stick around for a couple minutes if there are any questions between you
Know if you want some analysis you know quick analysis between two players or a lineup shell what kind of Wagers have you made this week I certainly have a I have a pretty big betting card between Wagers and parlays I I felt pretty good with some parlays this week so again my
Betting card will be uh out later this evening once I finalize my lineups um who’s your winner oh that reminds me uh I got to give you my oneand done uh last week I ended up taking Max hom that blew up in my face uh historically with a big old
Miscut this week I’m probably going to have to take it pretty safe I’m lean leaning pretty strongly to will alatus right now uh just because I’m very confident that he’s going to play pretty well here at Riv and I don’t know how many people are going to use Alat Taurus in one and
Done this week I can see an argument uh if you haven’t used him already to use fenale I already have so I can’t do I can’t use that one Oar makes sense but I’m I’m quite hesitant because he has never played here morawa makes a lot of sense but I’m
Trying to save him for a major because he generally just plays Major well same reason why I’m trying to sa Victor havland if you haven’t used hom he’s probably the best play in one and done I used him last week like a [ __ ] um but I’m leaning I’m leaning
Pretty strongly to will Al Taurus as my oneand done this week um JT with tiger too good to be true uh I mean the way Justin Thomas has played lately you can’t count anything out like I understand that some of these metrics are still in the red due to the
Struggles he had at the or you know during last season but it’s seventh and around the green he’s starting to get back to the Justin Thomas I don’t think I’m going to Tak him to win but to taking top 10 maybe even top five is not out of the
Question just understand he’s going to be very very chalky 23% per fantasy National 21 a half per gabes Source you’re not going to gain a whole lot of uniqueness off of Justin Thomas I don’t know how much uniqueness you’re going to gain off tiger just because of the sentimental play but if
You were to go something like um you you might be able to fit Scotty in this or Rory if you’re if if you wanted to yeah you could probably do it you’re you know pushing it quite a bit you’re probably not able to go into the eights or if you do it’s Clark
Scott Sun Jay you you asked about Jay day I’m not there but you know there’s definitely uniqueness for your awaken on jday I’m just not there that’s a that’s a that’s a possibility I think the other way I might go is to make Justin Thomas my third in this lineup do like
A a Max Homa Patrick kley Justin Thomas and you’re still you’re still in the mid to uper sevens granted with tiger mid to uper sevens for two players you know that’s a you know a speculative Hoy guard and a Hideki or you know maybe you like Russell Henley a lot more than I
Do not necessarily in on any of these other players but um that’s certainly an interesting option I think that’s where I would go with a Thomas and woods lineup is try to squeeze in two players above JT and price bottom out at Tiger and then find
Either a low seven and an upper seven that you like or two mid sevens that you like could be interesting I think that would be a fairly unique shell you might duplicate it just with the with the tiger sentiment sentimentality but I think it’d be a pretty unique shell
Looks like the par 3 six is the winner of the poll question so I want to thank everybody for participating in that for me I always think of Riviera as the first the par five significant downhill uh it’s just where you see the most pictures and tiger you know I think of
Riviera I think of tiger and all the pictures of tiger are you know when he’s teeing off on that first hole um for that’s just me so interesting to hear from the community want to thank awaken P Jeff and Gabe for jumping in chat much appreciated always
Uh love the interaction I want to thank everybody else out there for tuning in watching listening supporting the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics ownerships uh and all that giving you a statistician and data analyst view of
Things and TR trying to help us win a little bit of money in the process uh reach out to me this week or weekend if you have success how you’re doing in your contest or with your Wagers uh would love to be able to shout out members of the community who have
Success next week uh as we start the Florida swing so for all the Wagers you’ve made this week for the Genesis Invitational for all of the DFS contests you play this week for the Genesis Invitational for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
