Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Genesis Invitational on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:34 – bet365 Promo
01:27 – Justin Thomas
02:16 – Matt Fitzpatrick
03:13 – Collin Morikawa
04:10 – Ludvig Aberg
05:22 – J.T. Poston
06:57 – Xander Schauffele
08:09 – Tom Hoge
09:04 – Will Zalatoris
10:18 – Sam Burns
11:32 – Cam Davis
12:37 – Keegan Bradley
13:47 – Adam Svensson
15:11 – Si Woo Kim
16:04 – Sam Burns (cont.)
17:55 – Charley Hoffman
18:56 – Sahith Theegala
20:25 – Nick Hardy
21:05 – Xander Schauffele (cont.)
22:05 – bet365 Promo
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Welcome to links and locks action networks golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your new host Andy laak and starting today I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartori for these Best Bets episodes and just like Jason and Ben have done the last couple
Of years Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the Genesis open at Rivier golf course in Los Angeles before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the LNS and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365
Doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for the
Biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why why it’s never ordinary at Bed 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem
Call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions do apply okay Tony we’re on the first te here for our Genesis open Best Bets why don’t you get us started yeah absolutely I feel like this is going to be a pretty
Popular pick this week but I love Justin Thomas outright um he’s in boosted to 1900 at bet 365 um so 19 to1 I mean so we know he went through the slump last summer right but then he appears to be fully back like he hasn’t one but he’s
Basically back he’s right there six straight top 12 finishes it’s just a matter of time before he gets back in that win column and that could definitely happen this week at the Riviera Country Club he was the runner up here in 2019 four top 20 finishes
Over his past six outings at this venue I mean at this point let’s just kind of like blindly tail JT until he gets a win CU it feels like he’s going to get one here soon but um especially at 19 to1 I’m I’m looking at JT this week start
Off our outright picks love that one very much JT is on my betting card already so I guess I’ll go in a different direction here and throw Matt Fitzpatrick 45 to1 enhanced win uh this is a player that I always love on tougher golf courses right golf courses
With a lower greens and regulation percentage golf courses where scrambling is really important uh where around the green play in general is really important Fitzpatrick has already finished fifth at Rivier in the past he’s coming off a pretty good 15th Place finish in Phoenix where he actually
Caught the wrong side of the draw and was still able to finish in the top 15 now he gets to go back to golf courses that really should suit his skill set a lot more um be a lot more short game and a lot more difficult for him as well
Which is typically where he raises his Baseline the most uh so I will go with Matt Fitzpatrick 45 to1 enhanced on bet 365 currently yeah I love that a lot that’s a big number for Fitzpatrick espcially he someone with that with his ability um the other outright I’m
Looking at this week is Colin Mory Kawa also in the enhanced Market at 22 to one um he’s finished second here before he’s finished top six here back-to-back years so this is a course where like you long hitters have traditionally fared very well at the Riviera Country Club um Mora
Was not the longest but he hits long enough to where like he’s still going to have an edge over a lot of this field I mean he he averages about 302 yards a drive so like that that’s definitely good enough to be one of the longer
Hitters at this track um he’s in good form seven top 25 finishes over his past eight tournaments he won the Zozo Championship um back a couple months ago so he’s in great form just like JT but he actually does have a win under his belt recently but I could definitely see
Him get another one at 22 to1 so that’s that’s my other outright I am targeting this week love that one also so um I am kind of having a difficult time choosing for my other guy at the top of the board morawa was kind of in the mix as well
For me but I’ll throw ludvig uh ludvig Oar this is a player that I think a lot of us are on to as potentially one of the next superstars in golf uh this could be his coming out party right like he has already showed a really strong
Affinity for West Coast po greens um he’s got back-to-back top 10 finishes at Tory Pines in Pebble Beach Rivier I know he’s never seen the golf course before but if he’s the type of player that you believe is really good that should not be a problem for him at all because he
Never saw Tory Pines he never saw Pebble Beach either and he contended at both of those tournaments as well so I think this is a really good golf course for him from a skill set perspective I think it’s going to favor uh his driver I think it’s going to favor his long irons
He’s already shown us he’s pretty comfortable and familiar with po greens so I’m hoping this is the week that ludvig truly truly announc bounces himself to the golf world I would be so down for that I’m a big fan of his um I so I think actually back oh I hope I’m
Not Mis misremembering this but like 20 years ago I think Adam Scott won in his first appearance at this course as well so it’s definitely 2005 yeah yeah yeah yeah there you go it’s definitely possible but um anyway so I’m going to transition us back to the first round
Leader market and I’m going to Target JT Poston at 40 to1 so I have not locked this in yet because I do want to see the tea times like because I mean if he’s like part of the afternoon wave then maybe I’ll go in another Direction but
Right now the plan is post in 40 to1 first round leader um I just want to I feel that price is too long like we’re buying low here because he missed the cut last week in Scottdale prior to that this guy had 13 straight made Cuts seven
Finishes inside the top seven I talked about him on last week’s show about how like he’s trainning to this guy on tour where he’s got such a high floor then of course he went and missed the cut last week but I mean before that he was just consistent consistent and I think he’s
Going to be able to carry that over back over into Riviera at into Riviera this week um the main reason why I like him here is his ability to scramble he currently rakes 16th on tour in scrambling percentage last year four of the top five finishers here all ranked
Seventh or better in the field in scrambling percentage so I think long hitters and ability scramble is your two kind of avenues to victory at this course and that is why I like POS and at least have a good round on Thursday again contingent on when he’s te off
Agree with that I think this is a pretty good bounceback spot for him coming off the Mis cut uh in Phoenix I think you’re getting a little bit of a discount on what he was at least the first couple of weeks to open the season so I love that
One uh in the first round later Market as well I’m going to go to the top 10 market and take a player that my numbers continue to suggest is probably the most complete player on the PGA tour and yet uh he never seems to find his way into
The winner circle at least he has not in the last 18 months I’m going to take Xander Schley plus 125 five uh to top 10 uh he’s top 10 in three of his four starts to begin the season uh have received words from the grounds I’m I’m
Here and there a little close with this CAD you know a couple people in his camps he is out there grinding at Riviera on a Monday afternoon uh the only reason why he skipped Phoenix was because he saw pretty terrible inclement weather coming uh and it was a lower
Purse than he’s used to in the previous years without the signature event now we got Xander playing for 18 20 million up top again going to a course that he’s had a tremendous amount of success in in the past he has all the tools to succeed
At Rivier he’s already proven us to that in the past as well with his phenomenal course history here so I’m going to take Xander at plus money to finish in the top 10 which I think is always a good bet particularly a field when he only’s
Got to beat 60 other guys yeah 100% like sh is such a guy where like I love him in top five top 10 markets I cannot bet on that guy to win a tournament it is so freshing cuz he’s he’s got the toal too but it’s so frustrating when you have an
Outright bet on him he’ll finish like fourth like every single time but um I’m going to go back to the first round leader Market one last time here I’m gonna Target Tom hogi and he’s 80 to one so there’s a bit of a long shot here but
This just like hogi is a guy I trust on a Thursday way more than I trust on a Sunday um again we’re have to wait to see on T times but if he’s in like if he is in part of the first wave he he’s a
Guy that can score and he has three top 17 finishes over his past uh four turns tournaments so he’s playing well he’s you know he’s kind of like um gets a lot of burries but gets a lot of Bogies right so but if he can just avoid the
Bogies here at Riviera Country Club I I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could lead after the first round but 80 to one why not um yeah I always love hogi he remains one of like the best short iron players iron players in General on tour
So he’s always live particularly to get hot for one round speaking of elite iron play uh I don’t know if he’s ready to win just quite yet uh but I’m going to go back to will zelator plus 320 for a top 10 I just think that’s an excellent
Number on a guy that’s shown us that he is back on the right track I was at Tory Pines I got to follow him a little bit over there it looked like the game was kind of coming together he’s had a tremendous amount of Rivier success at
Rivier in the past this is always a guy similar to what I mentioned with his Patrick where you just want to play him on tougher courses you want to play alot torus on courses uh with a low Grid in regulation percentage a low driving accuracy percentage courses where he can
Really separate himself from Tia Green from the rest of the field that’s why he’s been so strong at us opens before that’s why he’s been so strong at Augusta um he almost won the PGA Championship at Southern Hills which is a golf course that I actually think is a
Sneaky pretty good comparison to Riviera in a lot of ways at least architecturally so I think if you don’t yet maybe trust zot torus to be the last man standing um but you’re pretty high on him to start continuing his Ascent back to one of the better players in the
Game I think plus 320 for a top 10 bat is um it’s really great value on him I I totally agree and I’m gonna actually steal your line right there is where a guy you trust but not necessar be the last man standing and that is for me
That is Sam Burns and so I’m gonna Target Sam Burns to finish top five he’s I mean anyone that watches him know you can he’s so frustrating watch because sometimes you just make a mistake where you’re like how is someone of your ability making this mistake and then
He’ll just go and rip off like five incredible shots in a row after that so he finished La he finished third last week in Scott sale he’s also has a top three finish in the um at this tournament and like I said earlier it’s you want long hitters and guys who can
Scramble Sam burn does both those things really really well um he’s a uh has a monster driver in his bag um he can Scramble with the best me ranks 11th on tour in scrambling percentage and that’s just being able to hit monster drives and also being able to scramble here is
A great recipe for sucess success so that’s why I like Sam Burns finishing the top five at plus 550 um I love that one as well I actually think this is I considered the outright on him as well because I just think like the yeah the way that he’s
Playing right now the way that he worked in Phoenix that was I think one of his best ball striking performances of his entire career certainly the best he’s looked from a ball striking standpoint uh over the first couple weeks of the Season I’m going to stick in the top 10
Market uh for one more betat and this one is going to be a little bit more of a long shot at some better odds but I’m going to go with Cameron Davis at plus 400 to finish top 10 this week you mentioned the importance of power off
The te and scrambling Davis is pretty darn good at both of those things particularly um his power off the te I always like Davis at golf courses like I mentioned with zot Taurus that really separate Elite TD green play and I know that Davis is a lot more volatile of a
Player than some of the elite ball Strikers but he can really still truly go toe to to was some of the best in the game when his driver is on point um that’s why we’ve seen him finish top 10 before at golf courses like Oak Hill you
Know at a PGA Championship where you’ve got thicker rough more narrow Fairways Rivier is going to be asking you a lot of those same questions so I think at plus 400 to finish in the top 10 Cam Davis has just a lot more upside than a
Lot of the guys that he’s priced around so I think at four to one um you could do a lot worse once you start diving a little bit deeper into the odds absolutely so I’m actually right I’m right around you on um the odds board
Here because I’m going to go top 10 plus 450 so right behind you with Keegan Bradley he just he flirted with the top 10 finish two weeks ago at Pebble Beach he was runner up in the Sony Open he’s been playing some good golf recently he
Can score here so he has two previous top five finishes in this tournament the numberb is a little wider here at plus 450 because those aforementioned two top five finishes were like 10 years ago he has not had that kind of success here recently but I also don’t think he’s had
The kind of success on tour recently until he got that win last year at The Travelers and you saw that kind of turned his season around and he started playing a much much better brand of golf after that and we’re talking about long hitters again I mean Keegan Bradley’s
Kind of underrated how hard he hit the ball he’s averaging nearly 308 yards off the T so I think as a long hitter someone who knows how to play this course someone who’s in good form Bradley’s worth a shot at top 10 at plus 450 love that one huge huge Keegan fan
As an East Coast guy yeah um hope he shows up this week as well I’m going to go I’m going to go with top 20 on this guy because I think asking a top 10 finish out of him might be a little aggressive but I’m pretty confident in
His his top 20 odds still provide a lot of value as well he’s at plus 230 uh and that is Adam senson who uh is a player that my numbers continue to love from a week to week basis in terms of the value that he presents uh he missed the cut on
The number last week in Phoenix Phenix with a lip out on 17 and he caught the wrong side of the draw so he had a bit of a three stroke ad disadvantage basically on half the field and he still almost made the cut on the number the
Ball striking still looked good for him he’s a really solid iron player and he finished ninth last year at Riviera in a really great field um and he gained over five Strokes putting at Rivier in his first appearance which is not very easy to do these are some of the toughest
Screens on tour they’re very nuanced POA is one of the trickiest surfaces to putt on spencon looked really comfortable here in his first appearance at Riviera and now you’re getting plus 230 on him to finish in the top 20 at a golf course that he’s already seen before unlike a
Lot of these guys farther down the board playing some sneaky good golf as well I think the miscut uh was a little bit deceiving you look at some of the ball striking numbers that he put up earlier in the season uh at golf courses like Wy and I think svenson’s playing a lot
Better than his numbers would suggest so I’ll take him plus 230 to finish in the top 20 this week I like that a lot and that’s a good stat to know with his Strokes gain on the greens because these greens like you said they are very they
Are tough um but I’m also going to Target the top 20 market and I’m going to go with SE sew Kim at plus 160 so I mean this is just more of like a trend play back toback top 20 finishes right now we’re getting that plus money again
He’s had mixed success here but he did finish third in 2019 he’s certainly not the longest hitter but he’s another guy who’s over 300 um averaging per drive so like that’s good enough for me at this course and again like I was saying with scrambling he’s the 23rd best guy on
Tour in scramble percentage this season so especially when you start getting the top 20 top 30 top 40 markets you start to especially in a field of 70 you start to get a lot of room for error right and I think if seu Kim is able to kind of
Limit the um bad shots with an ability to scramble and get back into holes then I think he can for sure finish top 20 for a third straight week love that one um I’m GNA go to a a different Market that we haven’t talked about yet which
Is tournament three balls uh and Target a player actually that you’ve mentioned before but in a little bit of a different format I’m looking at a tournament three ball here uh with Sam Burns plus 155 Jordan spe plus 170 and wam Clark plus 190 I’m gonna take Sam
Burns plus 155 in that spot um I mentioned how great he was playing earlier uh even just last week he’s been playing great all season he had a real great chance to win the American Express the ball striking got even better for him last week in Phoenix um I just think
I struggle with spe on this specific golf course I know he’s been kind of Hit or Miss at Rivier in the past he has had some success at this golf course in the past his irons just look really shaky to me last week in Phoenix he he was able
To finish strongly but a lot of that was because of his uh because of his putting I think that the irons are going to need to be a lot more on point for spe to beat Burns right now and Windam Clark he was incredibly kind to me uh at Pebble
Beach I was able to hit that 90 to1 outright to him it just looked like he was running out of steam you know you go from playing in really tough weather in Pebble Beach one week then you have to travel to Phoenix and deal with more delays playing more terrible weather and
Now you’re going your third week on the row your third City you already got your big win to cap off the season Burns seems like the to me that is far more highly motivated right now and it continues to keep knocking on the door keep knocking on the door hit the ball
The best out of those three guys last week in Phoenix so I really trust Burns’s ability to beat those three and come out of that group at plus 155 which I think is a pretty good number yeah absolutely I’m glad you’re on burns to I think we’re gonna get a
Huge week out of burns once again um but so this this uh next pick of mine is it’s going to be one of those where I know he’s going to miss the cut I’m just I’m going to be like well of course he did there’s a terrible spot to buy on
Him but I am going to Target Charlie Hoffman after last week I’m going to Target him to go top 30 which is plus 165 and like I know it’s gonna be like it’s gonna be like he’s gonna miss the cut it’s be like well obviously why why
Do you think he’s gonna finish top 30 but I think he’s gonna come with a chip on his shoulder so I was reading today that he tried he personally approached tiger trying to get a exemption for this tournament a few weeks ago and Tiger’s camp or whoever said no so basically
Hoffman then went to Scottdale a little bit fired and what he do he forced a playoff with Nick well I guess Nick Taylor forced the playoff but went to a playoff against Nick Taylor and finished runner up and so he wasn’t able to get the sponsor exemption into the
Tournament but then he played his way into the tournament and I think just if he has a chip on his shoulder he comes out playing like he did at in Scottsdale last week then top 30 at plus M I think is worth a shot I mean that’s you only
Have to finish in the top half of the field basically so at plus 165 that’s the direction I’m going with Charlie Hoffman I will finish off with sahit the gala 33 to1 in the first round leader Market a market you talked about a little bit already a market I don’t dabble into too
Much um but your picks in the first round leader Market kind of had me looking at it and kind of thinking about um who are the type of guys that I know can catch fire over the course of one round soth had that incredible round one
In Phoenix last week he kind of kept it together through the rest of the tournament and actually did a really good job contending in that tournament despite having the wrong side of the draw and getting pretty poor conditions compared to the other half of the field
This is a guy that has proven himself time and again already on PO greens he went to Pepperdine which is about a short 20 minute drive from Riviera so I would imagine that he’s a lot more familiar with this golf course than even his professional PGA Tour results would
Suggest which have been good to begin with anyway like he finished sixth at Rivier last year he’s obviously playing great coming off a a high-end finish last week in Phoenix I think 33 to1 is a pretty darn good number on seah to at least get off to a good start
Particularly if you think that he’s not going to be able to close the door and maybe get nipped by some of the more elite players in the upper tier of the betting Market I still think there’s a very good chance that sahit gets off to
A really hot start here I like that a lot and then then I’ll round us out here with Nick Hardy top 40 I mean so you he I mean that’s all a lot of margin for ER in a 70 man field so it’s plus 100 it’s plus 18 because Nick Hardy is definitely
Not one of the strongest players in this field and what is a pretty stacked field but I think he’s good enough to kind of sneak in there hanging around like the 35 to 45 area so plus money I think it’s worth a shot he’s a big hitter nearly
Averages 306 yards off the T um again just 70 man field if he could just get into that top 40 I don’t think that’s too hard especially for someone who is a big driver and has been gaining distance against the competition off the te in pretty much every tournament the past
Two seasons two years and I will bring us home with our final pick of the day I’m going to go with Xander schafle a player I mentioned earlier plus 100 over Victor hin right now in the matchup markets I have some concerns about the state of havins game he did not look
Great at Pebble Beach whatsoever he recently fired his short game coach in Joe mayo and the short game Wes that have plagued him in the past it seemed like they were back at Pebble be and now I know he took a week off to work on some things at home get some things
Right but I don’t really think that Riviera is the soft landing spot for a player that has some concerns about his iron play has some concerns about his short game this is a golf course where short game is incredibly important um so I don’t particularly think that this is
The week to get right back in on havin this quickly as bullish I remain on him long term Xander is just a much more complete player right now A much safer for bat so I’m going to go with Xander shaffle plus 100 over Victor hofland and
That will do it for our Best Bets episode for the Genesis open before we get out of here a final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they
Power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why
It’s never ordinary at P 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action experts Spencer agar and Nick
Brett wish return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for Genesis open betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony Sartori I’m your host Andy laak and we will see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by bet 365
1 Comment
didn't Xander withdraw from the Phoenix because of a niggling wrist injury?