In the second of eight designated events on the schedule, the top 50 from the previous years FedEx Cup rankings qualify with around 30 more places available through other qualifying criteria. This means we’ll have a strong field assembled for this event and three of the top four in the world in the shape of Scheffler, Hovland and McIlroy have committed to teeing it up on one of the most famous venues on the planet.
In this week’s show we’ll break down the best picks for the tournament with insight and analysis from Andy and Geoff as we go in search of another profitable week on the PGA Tour.
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[Applause] Hello friends welcome back to another edition of the drive brought you by odds Checker I am Jeff fineberg with me is Andy laak Andy Tory Pines is in the past another big winner elevated event season with with Phoenix and Riviera up next right big dogs hopefully about to get
Hunting uh I’ve made one bet so far looking forward to breaking down Pebble Beach with you sir yeah absolutely we haven’t seen Pebble we haven’t seen the best players in the world and I guess I should throw the caveat on the best PGA Tour players in the world because we’re not getting
The full gamut like we would at a major but we haven’t seen this strong of a field at Pebble since the 2019 US Open which I was in a attendance for so I think that this opportunity yep you got the flag in the background there as well
So I think that this has especially if we get some spicy weather I think this has the opportunity to be one of the best non major events of the season because getting Rory and hland and Sheffer and spe and home at Pebble Beach for the PGA Tour like that’s like the
Cowboys in the playoffs like it’s just safe it’s bankable and that’s why I have so much confusion about why Liv chose to open their season this week there are so many PGA Tour Duds why are you going against the one safe one where it’s like
You just put Rory and spe at Pebble and like it’s it’s gonna be fine um so I would say long-winded way of saying I’m pretty pped for this week man one of the most most beautiful courses if not the most beautiful course in the world with
An elevated field I guess before we get into the board Andy let me just ask you this holistically about this week because we haven’t had this sort of talent level here in the past few years do you feel like the strategy that worked at the US Open is how you want to
Attack this as in like it’s a US Open course or are we of the mind that any sort of player profile can rise here and historically when you know when it’s not an elevated field it is the Tom hogy profile type golfers who we might um you
Know look to at Pebble Beach so I just like your thoughts on that before we talk about the big boys yeah I think it’s somewhere in between um we’re not going to get us open USGA conditions but we are going to get some pretty spicy weather Jeff like I’m looking at the
Forecast right now and it’s going to be cold windy and rainy right and if I know anything about you know the networks and CBS This is a massive event for them any delays are a nightmare they they need that Sunday 3 to 6:00 pm window especially with no football on the
Docket this week for CBS and the other thing that we need to consider Jeff is that there’s no more amateurs on the weekend so part of the reason why the course setup has been so easy at Pebble in the past is because for pace of play
Concerns you have to put the pins in the middle of every single green because it’s not just Victor hoflin approaching these greens it’s also Bill Murray but now that there’s no amateurs over the weekend there’s no excuse for them not to set it up a little bit harder and a
Little bit spicier so no I don’t think it’s going to be US Open conditions per se um but I think a big dog is going to win um now I’ve been saying that for the last four weeks uh but we’re probably going to get somewhere in between and
That’s largely because because of the two key factors that I mentioned tougher weather and no amateurs on the weekend so I was ready to bet a a super Elite this morning and then sort of saw the weather and was like I think I need to rain this back because this could be a
Variable that maybe I don’t want to bet into first thing on a Monday morning you know because if you get caught in a draw you know your whole thing could go up and smoke quickly but I am with you clearly like uh you know I’ve been tweeting a couple times the Stan Marsh
Meme I didn’t hear no Bell okay I know the hundred to ones are hitting but I didn’t hear no Bell folks I’m still going to take the body blows playing the range that I like to play that I prefer to play that I’ve Had My Success playing
So let’s get right into it elevated field Pebble Beach uh Rory is here he is the favorite 8 to1 followed by Scotty at 850 hin at uh at at plus 12 1200 Xander coming in at 14 followed by spe at H and kley round out the guys uh in the 20s
I’ll throw Mora and JT in there just for conversation so you know what I’m taking it all the way to 30 we’re throwing ludvig in there coming in at 28 a lot of appetizing options Andy I made the comment last week that I don’t like Patrick kley when he is sort of the
Leader on the toteboard I like Patrick kentley when he’s at a place where he’s shown uh great course history and it’s the same number that if we want to bet Patrick kentley at a PGA Championship we’d have to bet so it’s Patrick kentley at 20 to1 but the big horse I was
Looking to bet first thing in the morning is Victor hin and I think you can talk me into it yeah um I’m all in on Vic at 12 and uh here’s Thea I mean the case is simple this is a guy who won the US amateur at
Pebble Beach this is also a guy that was the low amateur at the 2019 Us open at Pebble Beach where he gained over 10 Strokes ball striking this is also a guy that has finished top 15 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am before as well so
The only two players in the field and they’re the two guys I bet first thing on Monday morning that have played well at pble in every single condition that you want to throw at them you think this is going to be super hard I went to that
2019 US Open it was cold it was windy it was tougher conditions uh you want to throw out hey maybe the weather subsides a little bit and we get an easier PGA Tour setup oh Victor hins played well at that version of Pebble Beach too but I I
Just think this guy is the safest combination of course fit and number in this field I think that if you’re GNA pay that price for Rory or Sheffer God you better do it at a course where their driver matters and Pebble Beach is just not one of them Victor hoblin happens to
Have a sneaky unbelievable POA putting resume for whatever reason he putts really well on the west coast he putts well at Riviera he putts well at Pebble Beach he putts well at Tory Pines he putts well on slower greens like Mya COA we’ve seen havin win multiple times on
Shorter less than driver courses like Maya COA and Pebble Beach um this is a Lam spot for me at 12 to1 so I’m all in on your boy uh Victor at 12 here that would be a it would be a lovely victory for Vic get let me get your take on this
Andy because I sort of seen it around and it does make a lot of sense but we don’t have a sample size to sort of actually quantify it last year being the first year at elevated events where any Elite player would play in an elevated event so it would take elite players to
Places they don’t historically play and what we saw saw last year is the guys that historically played the venues where they have the elevated events were the players that played well there we have a lot of guys who would never be in this event here this week simply because
It’s elevated but you have identified playing the guys who really do just show up to this course um regardless as as I mentioned H uh kley you mentioned havin and Jordan spe will be another incredibly popular player this week um for almost those exact reasons yeah so
I’m pot committed with hin 12 and another guy who will get to shortly at 40 but if I wasn’t going the havin route I think the most logical card construction is can’t L speed right um and I I say that as a guy or or Klay hom
Like let’s not forget about H here you want to talk about the best West Coast putter West Coast po putter in the field it’s not Klay it’s not spe it’s h and I know that H doesn’t have quite the track record that spe and can’t do at P Beach
He’s been good like H’s been great at Pebble Beach um so I would say some form uh formulation of those three makes sense I I’m probably a bit higher on ludvig and JT than most this week for the sole reason of in the case of ludvig
He got his SE legs under him on POA my only concern with ludvig last week at Tori was I’ve never seen him PT before at POA and hey he missed a couple short putts that prevented him from being Inc contenent right and which was kind of what you spotlighted that last week I
Still went in there and bet uh ludvig anyway uh only to say even great po players seem to have found a bit of a cluster exploitive uh on the Shorties last week so let’s let’s move it back a little into the range that I have certainly highlighted into the range you
Have another bet in a lot of attractive options um looking at the odds Checker grid Mattie Fitzpatrick now seeing 35 being the top number Tony F now 35 cam young 40 Sam Burns 40 sunj m 40 Tommy Fleetwood 40 uh benan 50 Jason day 50 um
I think this could be a popular range if you want to expand on it you can I’ll be honest the bet that I made I assume it’s popular but if it’s going to be a little sloppy the course fit seems perfect I I took the matd Fitz 40 to1 out of the
Gate this morning and if you know me I am circling the Fleetwood 40s off the win in Europe uh he has played well here I could trust him I guess in a bit of a weird putting contest that maybe it neutralizes for him so Fitz and Fleetwood would be the players in this
Range that I’m looking to fire on Andy yep I’m completely right there with you man Fitz was my first bet this morning and let’s get a Comm like we are so due you know I was we bet him last year as a community I think he missed
The cut here right uh well he has played well here in the p I bet him here every year um because I just think this is such a perfect golf course for him uh Fitz you mentioned the weather uh like with as same as hin Fitz is you know the
Probably the only guy in this field that’s finished top 15 again outside of havin at both a usop pin Pebble Beach and a regular PGA Tour setup at Pebble Beach I think he can win on this golf course if the weather subsides I like him even better at this golf course if
We get super crazy weather conditions right we we just very recently Jeff I know it’s DP World Tour so we weren’t following it probably as closely but the Alfred Dunhill in October that tournament it just rained for four days straight and who was the last man standing it was Fitzpatrick right so I
Think that um he’s a pretty safe guy in terms of like sloppy weather conditions small greens shorter course I mean the last time Jeff we went to to a shorter less than driver course uh that emphasized wedge play with a signature field mat Fitzpatrick won the Heritage right well
Matt Fitzpatrick was the last man standing so I I think there’s a ton to like about Fitzpatrick this week and and him and hin th those are my guys if this wasn’t an elevated event and a lot of these super high-end players weren’t here and Fitzpatrick was still here at
Like 1862 to1 I think I’d still be betting him yeah me too I think I I think I so we seem pretty committed at the top it is an elevated a field but I don’t know the dogs are having their day Andy uh even something 80 to one wouldn’t
Feel as big as recently but anything in and around here Hadi Adam Scott uh sahith seems like you know he’s the sort of Boomer bus player or are you just anything north of a 100 that you would um that you would consider catching your eye yeah I’m drawing my line in the sand
At 90 and I’ll be brief with these two guys um sahit at 90 is just a bad number like I don’t understand I’m a cam young apologist okay nobody likes to dive into Cam Young’s distance to Apex stats and data golf page like me he is the Justin
Herbert of golf right like the analytics nerds like myself just gush over cam young all freaking day that guy has every tool in the shed make all the throws but without the big wins in no Universe should cam young be half the price of siah the gala on the freaking
West Coast man um siah is 90 to one I watched it I followed him pretty closely at Tory Pines last week I know that the result uh didn’t end in the way that we wanted it to he’s still an ey test guy for me like he sahit can freaking play
He’s ready to win this type of event in my opinion he’s won on the west coast this fall on a similarly short West Coast po course that emphasizes wedge play at Silverado um and you can spray it a little bit more off the te which I like
As well so I made on say At The Gala real quick final guy I think my biggest like disagreement with the golf betting community and potentially the market is that wam Clark is really good um and he’s not he’s a real guy and he’s not going to go quietly into the night maybe
My numbers are just wrong but I just don’t understand how like we are less than six months removed from like the last two major championships and wendam Clark and Brian Harmon are like double the number of Bo Hustler the Whi boy I just don’t understand how we got here like wendam
Clark is like amazing he’s he’s my numbers continue to love him he’s one of the best Putters in this field inside 15 ft he’s had a tremendous amount of success in California um he he’s a he’s he’s a great like sneaky great wedge and long iron player as well this course D
Value’s middle iron play so you give me wendam Clark at 90 to1 and a hit at 90 to1 um I just think you have to bet those and move on so I really love both of your thoughts on both of those players uh Windam it does seem to be
Like there’s a consensus on him 80 90 to one across the board sahit is where you use that odds Checker GD and you find yourself the biggest number CU I’m seeing it as high as 90 as was 66 to1 obviously if you want in on on him get
In on that 90 and you know a lot of people I trust sort of earmark him and spe as uh the the courses that work could be very similar spe will be very popular this week why not try sah hi 90 to1 great shout out Andy I’ll go over
100 to one this will be incredibly popular um he’s a guy that I piggybacked with Matthew Fitzpatrick at many previous Pebble Beach prams and that’s MAV mcney he’s showing up at 200 to1 on the odds Checker grid as low as 120 uh if you can play it with the eways
And the placings that’s probably something you might want to do but I am going to be on the public consensus of of MAV McNeely for a little sprinkle this week that’s really it for Me Andy fits in the middle kly or H you know near near the top and that is sort of
What I what I’m looking at how about you it’s hin it’s Fitz it’s a HTH it’s Windom right that’s it that’s the card man 1240 9090 um I feel pretty good about it those are the guys I’m going to battle with um let’s have a week my
Friend this is like I said I think this has the potential to be uh be a super super good one yeah it should be great entertainment anyway the sites of Pebble Beach with a super Elite field going going at it Andy we’ll be talking next week it’ll be Super Bowl week it it’ll
Be Waste Management odds Checker will have you covered with all of it be at football be at the golf college basketball NBA NHL all your needs we’ll have you here smash that like button for us we’ll be back next week talking more PGA Tour for Andy I’m Jeff we’re Out
2 Comments
Ty guys awesome content..appreciate it.
i thinkwe r all sleeping on sam burns this week. best putter on tour imo