Genesis Invitational | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California for the Genesis Invitational. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
1:45 Course Preview
8:40 10K Range
15:46 9K Range
20:44 8K Range
28:57 7K Range
33:33 6K Range
37:31 Custom Model
41:22 Outro
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What’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Genesis Invitational a unique signature event we will talk about that a really great Golf Course love Riviera Tiger Woods is back in action and I’ll be on site this week as of right now definitely Tuesday get a

Little reconnaissance uh in before the tournament starts definitely Saturday I’ll be at the Travis Matthew uh tour bus for a little bit as well if you want to stop by working on other day there’s a lot going on we’ll see where it ends up shaking out but um let me

Make a note real quick about this event this is a signature event but unlike other Signature Events there is a cut so I believe the field right now is 71 golfers they are going to cut it down to the top 50 and anyone within 10 shots which honestly might be the whole field

But uh there technically will be a cut and the big news out of that is because there is a cut the the distribution of prize money is different so the other Signature Events 3.6 million to first that’s 18% of the purse this is 20% of the purse meaning first place gets $4

Million uh that’s important for your oneand done this event the Arnold Palmer and the memorial will work under those same constraints the other Signature Events will be no cut 3.6 million to First that type of deal so as if these types of events couldn’t couldn’t get more confusing uh there are a few

Caveats for this week okay um let’s jump into Riviera and see what we can find here is the golf course and I dove deep into this on uh in my newsletter or excuse me on my my stat preview for this week which is available on Rick run

Good.com I’m sure I’ll include a lot in my in my newsletter and this is a new updated course key stats tool on rickun good.com basically everything you see from from here on out will be via rickun good.com um there is a tutorial that you can watch this it it’s just the you know

The old key stats but but on steroids a little bit so uh I’ve added the whole by hole information uh you still have the correlation which is one of my favorite things you still have the course fit but then you also get these statistical um you know Miss Fairway penalties uh long

Drive rewards you get the approach bucket for every hole and in aggregate you get the putting opportunities and the putting boost we we’ll talk about all those in just a second but um Riviera and and this is normally a really good firm and fast test it is a

Golf course that asks you to do a lot of different things well I do not expect it to be as difficult this year remember the the LA area and the West Coast in general um I mean La literally got a a Year’s worth of rain in like a 12-day

Period last week and and the week before that um I I I it is it is very wet still I I will confirm that on Tuesday when I’m when I’m out at the golf course but I imagine it is going to be softer than previous years I will find out for you

The uh the shot making that you need at Riviera is is pretty intense it’s a pretty complete Game you know you have to hit it in both directions off the te you’ve got to also avoid um you know there’s I’ll get to the kakuya ru in a second but you know

Playing out of the Fairway on some holes is a really big reward on other holes it doesn’t really matter so what you’re constantly doing is you’re constantly strategizing you’re constantly having to hit a bunch of different shots off the te if you look at the regression model

It you know it loves driving distance only 13 courses uh are more strongly correlated to to driving distance and success than than Rivier is it loves around the green play we’ll talk about that in a second the approach buckets um you know I I’ll I’ll I think I include

This in my article the stat profile of of approach buckets is very very similar to TPC Scottsdale uh skews definitely longer than PGA Tour average in fact only 3% of approach shots coming from inside 100 yards is the lowest rate on the PGA tour most shots coming from 150

To 175 175 to 200 200 and more all of those over 20% of approaches and all either close to equal or way more than the uh than the tour average so you want to be looking for those guys who are asked to to who are this course is

Asking you to hit a lot of shots from 150 yards and in guys that can do that very well are going to find success here um you know around the green play and why that correlates so much one in past years you know par is often a very good

Score uh you know you look at the scoring averages from last last year most holes playing you know playing over par number one is is one of the easiest holes on the PGA tour it’s just a gimme par five um 17 again another I mean it’s the par fives and then everything else

Plays overpar so those are your those are your scoring opportunities so so par is often a good score and I this is the first time in the calendar year that we see kakuya grass around the greens and uh if you’ve ever uh seen uh or played in kakuya Grass it is very

Rough it is very sticky it’s very menacing quite honestly it’s it’s an intrusive grass the reason it works in a lot of places that don’t get a lot of rain is because you can’t get rid of it right I mean it’s just it’s a to get rid

Of K if they if Riviera wanted to get rid of kakuya grass or any golf course want to get rid of it they would have to burn it out they would literally just have to just like Flame the golf course to get rid of this and it it is so nasty

And you see that in your golf club you have to hit really committed shots it wants to grab your clove it wants to turn it it wants to be snaggy nasty nasty stuff um the other thing that I that I like for the new course key stats

Model here is this putting section and and what I’ve done I tried to make this like not Galaxy brain myself here um but the way that I’ve done this and there was a really good example last week with with TPC Scottsdale TPC Scottdale was you know it’s very difficult to hit it

Close to the pins it was significantly you know lower in terms of Birdie opportunities than a lot of tour average uh spots from like 4 to 8 feet 9 to 15 16 and 26 Etc uh the reason that that’s important is because when you start realizing where most players are hitting

Their shots too a lot of guys play similar shots um where are those birdie opportunities coming from are they more or less than tour average and then looking at each golfers uh putting ability from those ranges and the frequency in which those putts are expected to come from from you can say

This is a good putting spot for somebody or this is a bad putting spot for somebody so um the way that this looks for Riviera is it is actually a little easier to access pins uh than tour average H from 4 to 8 feet so that is 14% of Birdie opportunities coming from

48 ft tour average is about 12 U 9 to 15 fet little easier as well but very close to tour average and then uh from both uh 16 to 26 ft and 27 to 36 ft Rivier is below tour average so that you’re looking to give kind of a big boost to

Guys who putt well from four to 8 feet who put well from 9 to 15 fet not necessarily As Much from the longer distances if you’re going to be able to hit it close you got to be able to roll them in uh long story short the way the

Calculation pumps out is Scotty excuse me it’s not Scotty Xander Schley Eric Cole Tommy Fleetwood Sam Ryder Taylor Montgomery those types of golfers get a bigger putting boost here based on the above numbers I will dive into this and I do dive into this a lot more in the

Tutorial I won’t you know uh Crush you with with all the stuff right now we we’ll we’ll continue to move on but uh long story short be long off the tea be a great driver uh hit your long irons mid the long irons well have a sound

Short game that can get you up and down for par in a lot of situations and maybe this year roll in some more putts hit it closer because the greens are likely to be softer and I I think we might get um again I’ll know more on Tuesday but I

Think we might get some some pretty good scoring conditions uh all said this week at Riviera here’s the cheat sheet and there are four golfers over $10,000 Scotty sheffler 115 Roy mroy 112 Xander shley 101 Victor havland at $10,000 flat let’s just start with Scott Scotty

Sheffer here and he’s um a machine right we I don’t need to spend a ton of oxygen on Scotty uh what he did last week was phenomenal he is the best T green player in the world it’s not remotely close he did gain Strokes putting in each of the

First three rounds which I think is good news you know he gained Strokes putting at Pebble Beach he gained Strokes putting in three out of four rounds last week he is making progress I think what happens on on what or what happened on Sunday is when you’re going through something and

You’re obviously putting is taking up such a a big focus of his of his game and his time and his and his mental wherewithal when you get that under pressure and you get that in stress you saw a couple of short misses late uh Scotty Sher at his worst is finishing

Like T3 in these tournaments it it is it is brazenly sick it’s jarring it’s it’s incredible stuff um I’ll pull up his history here at this event T12 last year t7 the year before that T20 in 2021 T30 in 2020 he missed the cut here in 2018

Uh not too worried about that he has gained Strokes putting here in each of the last two years in fact he’s gained in six of his last eight rounds um I think I mean this is not a hot take I’m not breaking news like Scotty Sheffer is

Going to be in the mix again this week I just there’s just no other way around it right um let’s look at what Roy mroy has been up to and see if there are some hairs to split between these two and Rory looks like one of the early kind of

X factors here right you know comes off this this excellent run in Europe which by the way Rick run good.com has all those stats as well um you know six different tours and then has one of the worst weeks we’ve ever seen him have at Pebble Beach he finishes t66 it was a

Signature event there was only 80 guys in the field he lost Strokes from uh Tia Green in in in both measured rounds that we had he lost uh big on approach this is all very concerning stuff he lost with the putter this is very uncharacteristic of Rory m

So you really just kind of need to decide uh how worried you are about this I’m probably not worried too much about it uh I’m going to pull up his history around Riviera it’s uh it’s good not great he’s never won here but he’s got a

Bunch of top 20s he’s got a fourth and a fifth in 19 and 20 I think if you ask me right now um I would probably prefer Scotty I might even prefer Xander who will pull up here in a second uh the the lack of really really good

History at Riv and the idea that you know maybe it is something that popped up that he hasn’t been able to get uh you know ironed out since pebble is a little bit concerning but I I trust Rory to be okay I would just have to split

Hairs at the top of the board here we’ll look at Xander because I’ll tell you what he did not play particularly well at Pebble Beach and his his cut streak got saved by the fact that that was a no cut event um he did play better in round

Three though which it was a measured round at uh at Pebble Beach and it looked much more like the Xander that we would expect he basically gained Strokes across the board um I think that that is a a really good sign that a bounceback is coming here he was great at Tory he

Was great at the American Express he was great at the Sentry I would probably be willing to forgive Xander for you know two bad rounds and he in which he turned around um Victor is much more interesting and I’m going to do a little bit of a of a breakdown probably on

Twitter and I did a little bit on in theuh article on Rick run good.com as well the way that he plays the 15th hole or has played the 15th hole historically is uh is unique right there’s only a couple guys that do it he wants to play

Down 17 Fairway it is a it is a math based uh decision it’s it’s cool the the PJ tour tried to put up a scoreboard there to deter that I don’t know if this year they’re going to do a double decker scoreboard because you can just go over

The scoreboard if you’re Victor hland um but there I think there’s there’s reason for concern here so we’ve got three straight uh events in which he has lost multiple Strokes on approach now he has um I don’t I don’t have any inside information but he had the wrist wrapped

We saw that on PGA Tour live when we saw him at the Pebble Beach Pro he withdrew from last week’s Phoenix Open and was uh citing um that he want you know want to take the time off his game wasn’t in tournament shape and he wants to get in

The lab that that is historically what he has done he doesn’t usually play through stretch like if he doesn’t think he’s got his good stuff he has usually taken time off figured it out and come back he doesn’t usually play through that now this is a a Siggy it’s a

Signature event um if you look at his history here which I’ll pull up right now it’s a T20 and 20 uh 23 a T4 and a T5 so he’s been really good and I think that will combined with the you know the $10,000 price tag and you know almost

Guaranteeing four rounds it’s not a guarantee but that’s a that’s a good thing for Victor this week I think he’ll be somewhat popular um I would exercise caution here and kind of I would look to get Victor in like high upside situations where if he comes back and

He’s got it figured out great if he doesn’t play well you’re not crushed by it I’m talking outrights I’m talking um I mean maybe even one and done if you were feeling friskier have gotten off to a slow start that that type of situation th this is this is concerning though

Because I’m not sure we’ve seen him lose on approach for three straight measured events ever yeah I just scrolled through like basically his entire career and it it hasn’t happened we’re we’re in the midst of one right now so I’ll show you something crazy here so uh the last 36

Rounds on the power rankings just raw Strokes gain Victor havin is is the second best player in this field behind Adam Scott believe it or not that’s surprising in its own right you know gaining 1.8 Strokes per round in the last 36 now the the the problem with

That is if you go to his last 12 rounds uh he is a tour average player uh 0.03 to the positive which is a stroke and a half behind each one of Xander Rory and Scotty so the last 12 have not been good the last the 24 prior to that have been phenomenal

Um and even with Xander struggling Rory struggling those guys are kind of lapping Victor in raw Strokes gained over the last 12 12 is a very small sample size I’m pointing it out you can make your own decisions but it is it is it is worth noting the 9k range is a ton

Of fun I am fascinated to find out what everybody wants to do with Max hom here uh very popular golfer who was popular again last week did not play well he missed the cut was popular the week before that at at the Pebble Beach proam

Did not play well finished t66 now he is going to his Super Bowl the place that he’s got a win a runnerup uh just like th this is this is it for him and we’ll know more by the time we get to the you know live chat on Wednesday 3 pm Eastern

Time Rick rung good YouTube channel we’ll know more about what the industry is going to do with him this week but really really fascinating he he didn’t play well in Phoenix he lost Strokes ball striking in both rounds um uh Pebble Beach he started well gained two

Strokes in round one and then lost 2.1 lost 2.9 so he is in he’s in a stretch of golf now where he’s lost multiple Strokes to the field three times in his last four rounds uh played a little bit better in round two but not not great

The other thing that I want to look at and because I cannot remember this off the top of my head but I’m pretty sure he was in the bad wave let me confirm that he was in the bad wave last week am PM which by the time everything was said

And done was like three shots worse than the other wave that they kind of got wiped so if you’re if you’re willing to forgive those guys you got to be able to forgive Max H here um let’s look at his let’s look at his Genesis stuff because

It’s pretty it’s pretty crazy he’s got the runnerup last year 10th in 2022 win in 2021 fifth in 2020 so yeah very good in each one of those starts he’s gained in each of the four strokes gain categories it is it’s it’s really impressive I’m likely to forgive on

Maxom pretty quickly but the rest of this 9k range does offer a lot of good stuff you guys know I’m I’m quite high on Colin moow you guys know I’m I’m quite high on Justin Thomas for this year you guys Pro I mean what ludvig’s doing is insane we’ll talk about that in

A second but the fact that Patrick Klay is $9,300 feels a little bit criminal this is a guy who actually wins a lot of golf tournaments who has a great history here he’s got the the third place finish last year 33rd 15th 17th 15th um and the t11 at Pebble Beach was

Really weird so he got off to a blazing hot start he gained six Strokes to the field he played uh spy glass in round one then he lost a little bit in round two lost a little bit more in round three that’s it we only played three

Rounds and it was a t11 and that’s kind of a bad result especially when you start out gaining 6.3 but compared to what he did at the farmers and what he did at the American Express that was still a better result so I I I definitely think there’s going to be a

Lot of hesitance to play Klay because I I don’t think he’s a very popular guy in general he usually hovers in the 14 to 18% ownership range and he’s not playing blazing hot golf but look at these metrics around Riviera I mean these and these are good I mean the data that we

Get from Riv is it’s it’s always four rounds it’s always shotlink the course generally plays similar each year it asks you I mean this is a really impressive stat profile you know it really is you look at um you know this is 2024 season stuff you know he’s he’s

Great from 175 to 200 let’s go back to 2023 it’ll give us um it’ll give us more information you know he’s 20th from 150 to 175 on tour so in this field it’s even better he’s 175 to 200 uh he’s 40th so even better from 200 to 225 he’s

Fifth I mean he’s very good with his he’s actually he’s actually worse with the wedge he’s worse compared uh you know relatively in terms of rank from 100 yards and in or 125 yards and in than he is from 12 125 an out which is good here so I I think he’s pretty

Criminally priced at $9,300 um we’ll do the ludvic stuff because this is you know a course that ask you to to do a lot off the te and ludvic can do anything um I feel like his you know I’m I’m like his mom he can

Do anything he puts his mind to his the rest of his game I think has matured even faster than than we would have expected there’s a really good chance he would have won at Pebble Beach you know what was he a sh or two behind Windam

Clark with 18 to go he had gained at least two strokes in each of the first three rounds they cut it short and he never gets a crack at it T9 at Farmers like Big Boy golf course he wins the RSM CL I mean this is

This this course is made for for ludvic right I mean he is just such a good player the only one conern concern would be his around the green game is not super sharp though he played well at Pebble he played well he play plays well

A lot he’s just capable of losing you a stroke or two there but I I I’m just in love with this kid and what he’s what he’s about to become and he’s going to make his he’s going to make his debut here the 8K range and actually before we

Get to the 8K range let me remind you of two things the uh Splash contest the tiar contest for this week is open and still guaranteed so they are guaranteeing these prize purses which is great $20 entry you pick uh six golfers across across six different tiers I’ve

Been basically donating to this every single week I can’t tell you the last time I C I won one early I guess I guess in the fall of last year and I’ve just been giving that money back ever since so that that link is in the description

You can you can join that and then also um underdog if you did not see this has released if you missed out on best ball starting last week uh have no fear so they’ve released two new best ball options so one that starts I believe at RBC Heritage and runs through the Open

Championship don’t quote me on that but I believe that’s what it is and then one for just the major championships now that has a lot of different wrinkles to it because you are going to get access to the live guys I love that I love both

Of these so I’m going to try to get you some major championship rankings like I did for uh the season long and I’ll update the season long ones to start with the uh RBC Heritage but these are great and they fill pretty quickly and and the way that it works they have to

Kind of um you know they only release so many of these because like you can’t get in up till the last second because they have to be able to kind of fill it or whatever so um go and sign up for those right now you can use my link in the

Description it’ll get you a $100 deposit match as well and these are these are very very cool so I’m stoked I’ll I’ll dive into those I’ll dive into those more as um the next couple weeks go on Sam Burns so Sam Burns is $8,700 Sam

Burns uh we we I used Sam Burns nearly across the board in one and done last week and was thrilled with the result I which means I was probably watching him more than I should have this dude especially on Sunday alone and he shot

Like a 70 64 on Sunday which I think was 7 under tied for the for the best round he was stuffing everything even the putts that he missed and he made a ton of them he missed like a seven-footer a 10-f footer a nine-footer like all in

The I mean these are coin flips but this could have been Sam almost stole this one and now he’s got T6 10th third in his last three remember he almost won this event a couple of years ago I think he ended up finishing third but he had

The 30 he had the lead I’m pretty sure on 10 on Sunday he had he had the lead he is a much better golfer now and I I find that he is a streaky guy and when you when you when he’s in the middle of a hot streak you ride with him missed

The C each the last two years that third place finish was uh in 2021 yeah you see just kind of gives a little bit back ball striking in round four he actually he actually gained Strokes to the field but it was not enough he got chased down

In 2021 I think that was was that Max’s year was that the year Max and fena went to the playoff I can’t remember it’s all it’s all blurred in my in my brain but I I love the way that he is playing um you know we talked about the statistical

Profile at least in terms of the proximity buckets for this event and for TPC Scottdale being very similar almost identical in the frequency of shots coming from each of those proximity buckets yeah let’s go let’s go Sam feels like a great spot for him cam young is

Here as well and remember I mean for the last six months I’ve been like okay I gotta I’m gonna have to see something from cam young he’s making me a little bit nervous and I believe we are at the situation now where it’s time to time to

Try to be early um the good news is has always been and never faltered off the T one of the most elite drivers on the PGA tour and he has never lost that the approach play which left him a little bit last summer is generally back he was

Great to Dubai Desert Classic he gained 6.8 Strokes on approach there he gained again last week in his T8 finish in Phoenix the putting and the short game in general has given him a lot of issues gained five Strokes putting last week it’s a lot he’s probably unlikely to do

It again but we’ve seen him in his career be a positive Putter and His short game or his around the green plate which is still a little bit concerning um you know he he was fine for two rounds last week he’s been fine in two

Of his last four starts this is a golf course where he’s finished I think third second or third and 20th I guess I could just look it up I don’t have to actually guess on that that is going to reward the best aspects of his game you see

Runnerup finished in 2022 20th in uh 2023 and he’s not had he he’s not had the good around the green week yet right he’s he’s lost a stroke at least in each of those two he did putt beautifully in his runner-up finish but he putted poorly in his 20th which means he’s

Going to be able to separate himself with ball strike striking he’s got a really high floor at this golf course I think he has a really high floor if we can get both the short game categories to work I think he could actually win this thing I’m I’m I’m ready to try to

Be early on cam young and then Adam Scott you know that we we we made a packed last week on Adam Scott we said if you like Adam Scott last week you have to bet him in Phoenix and you have to bet him in Riviera that that that’s

That’s the deal that we make because he’s been so good here he won in 2020 runner up in6 fourth in 2022 seventh in 2019 I mean it’s just a ton of really good finishes you actually won here in ‘ 05 you finish runner up in 06 I don’t care about those

As much but that’s that’s all good and then you look at um you also look at what he is doing recently and it’s so good the ball striking is very underrated right now the um Power Rankings remember Adam Scott being $8,200 and the best player in this field

In terms of raw Strokes gain 1.9 per round the reason for that not only the good start at Pebble Not Only the Good Start in Phoenix but the three before that in Europe which again Rick run good.com he gains 13 Strokes to the field at the PGA Australian PGA 11 at

The Australian Open 10 in Dubai they’re pretty serious events uh they’re not just hitting Giggles I mean BMW PJ Championship finished seventh even for all that so we are we’re getting really good Adam Scott right now on a golf course that’s I mean he could be I don’t

Love using him if you’re kind of saving like he’s he’s a decent oneandone option is what I’ll say um yeah I don’t know if I could convince myself to do that with $4 million up top but love the way he’s trending I will note the shakeup though and actually I

Gotta confirm this but uh I believe that I read Paul Tor is going to be on Tom Kim’s back so Tom Kim I believe had Joe scin who was Ricky Fowler’s old caddy uh and then I I think you got scaven and then I think scaven did he go to ludvig

I’ll I’ll confirm that but either way I’m pretty sure a stories on the bag for Tom Kim a little bit of a shakeup sometimes those work out for the first week and then you learn what it ends up being but let me confirm that yes okay that is

True uh so scin already left for ludvig’s bag I don’t remember who was on Tom Kim’s bag the last couple of weeks uh but it seems like it’s going to be Paul toor at least this week I don’t know if that’s moving forward or not I’ll try to get some more info on

Tuesday anything else in this 8K range um fenals gonna have to kind of show me something a little bit more although I did you know we we got him right at farmers and we got off at Pebble and that was fine and I think it’s going to

Be a week- toe thing I will uh continue to wait a couple of weeks maybe for Tony feno the 7K range has Will zuris and here we go does it look like will is knocking off the rust okay uh so he loses 20 Strokes at the Hero World

Challenge in December then he loses six at the Sony Open in January then he gains six at the American Express then he gains nearly seven at the farmers does it feel like he’s knock I mean and look at how he does it right loses across the board hero gains on Approach

At the Sony gains everywhere but off the tea at the American Express gains everywhere at the Farmers Insurance open including pretty significant gains in rounds two three and four that’s a golf course that sets up really well for him you know another golf course that sets

Up really well for him how about Riviera Country Club the Riviera Country Club where he has finished fourth last year 26th in 2022 15th in 2021 he’s gained Strokes putting in two out of those years uh two out of those three years and I still have concerns obviously but zator he’s flying

Up those major championship rankings for fball he’s flying up those season long rankings he is flying up the board I snatched him up in a lot of Underdog stuff like in the sixth round and I am thrilled with that CU he is shaking off

The rust and he is very very cheap and I will tell you the second they he like contends again you’re not going to see a $7,900 will Al tourus ever again he is he is gonna if he finish second this week he’s going to be $99,500 every

Single week throwing it out there really interested to see what sewu does and what people do with SEIU this is not a great spot for him he finished third here in 2019 and then hasn’t had a finish better than 37th and he misses the cut more frequently than he makes it

Now it would be very unlikely for him to miss the cut this week it is possible we’ve talked about that but it would be pretty unlikely with the the rules that they have but look at what he’s been up to coming into this event I this is

About as good of a stat profile as you can ask for um major gains in the ball striking categories which is going to allow himself to separate here really good results three straight top 25s four top 25s in his last five starts the putter was positive in Phoenix where

Round one he was a zero round two he gained a stroke round three is zero round four small loss we will take that every single round for SE um so I’m pretty optimistic and especially if I can catch him at a low number because there’s a lot of names in the $7,600

Range people will opt for you know probably will Al Tores people will look at Russell Henley for the ball striking prowess people might look for Denny who’s played well a couple of top 25s coming in in and what are we going to do with SEIU who’s been horrible here um

Well I think I think we I think we grab him really you know continuing big concerns over Ricky Fowler at $7,400 we’ve spent a lot of oxygen on that it is a really bad stat profile something’s really screwed up there uh Nikolai hoard is 7,800 what are people going to do

With him I I think it’s you know this is a staple event we’ve seen it every single year it’s been at Riviera forever what do people do with guys that have never played here before and and especially because you have guys with a lot of really good course history Huard

Is $7,800 has not played here before but look at the results again you’ve got to include what he did on the European tour I’ve got the metrics for it I’ve got the results for it he goes runner up at nedbank wins the DP World Tour Championship 25th in Dubai at the

Invitational and then t7 at Dubai Desert Classic then he finishes runner up Big Boy golf course at Tory and 31st at at Pebble in which he lost 3.6 Str BRS at spy glass in round one he gained more than that in round two and then he was a

Small loser in round three weird event gets shortened still finishes t31 uh the ball striking the off the te game is sound this kid’s legit I love this price on him and I expect not many people to be opting for it at $7,800 it’d be pretty sharp if if

People were starting to starting to figure that out but there’s just so many good options I’m not sure anybody in the 7K range uh besides maybe zotus at the top is is going to Garner Garner a lot of ownership the 6K range a another streaky golfer is ailan gillo and when

You when he is on a streak you want to ride it and when he is struggling you just wait for him to turn it around and he is on a good streak right now uh I’ll pull up his results here so we’ve got a t22 last week in which he gained nearly

Seven strokes ball striking T14 at Pebble Beach T2 20 at the farmers t7 at the Sony so the start to his 2024 has been really good which is great because he finished 2023 uh on a pretty sour note we got Kurt kyama right uh you know

We we we looked at it last week and it was like this this is probably one of the better spots that you can get him it’s 110 to one he finishes T8 gains across the board these are all still really good metrics I will warn you a

Little bit I mean we’re going to get lot the same proximity stuff the difference in grasses worries me a little bit um you know he’s missed the cut here but I think it was just once last year uh the you know the kakuya the the the POA

Greens the it is yes the same proximity buckets and he’s hitting it well this is not the desert golf that I would have liked and I thought that Kurt and we were we got it right we got Kurt right that’s great so I will have exposure to

K Kurt this week very very high upside golfer has won a signature event before but it would it will definitely be dialed back I was like Allin on him last week I will be less than that but still still optimistic about the way that his

Game sets up for this um let’s do the Tiger Woods conversation right I mean I’m like contractually obligated by the game of golf to talk about Tiger Woods whenever he’s in the field he is $6,500 he is all but guaranteed a four rounds as

Long as he’s in the top 50 or within 10 shots um here’s his stat profile and this speaks for itself he finished 18th out of 20 uh in his own field at at Albany in uh December in which he lost five Strokes on approach another three around the greens another four with the

Putter this is uh the last time we saw him before that was a wd at the Masters I don’t need to tell you this is not a good stat profile I will also point out to you that this is the one course that he has played the the most

In his career without a win uh he does have good finishes but those good finishes kind of stopped in in 2018 right he’s got the the miscut the actually finished T15 in 2019 that but 2019 was the year he won the Masters so’s he was playing well 68th in 2020

Played here last year T45 um this is the year God this is last year already where he handed the tampon to Justin Thomas and I tweeted about it and it went viral that was insane uh so yeah I don’t think I’ll be playing tiger I’m excited to watch him this week

Can’t wait to get out there hope he makes the cut but I don’t know how could you play him over anybody Taylor Moore Luke list who I think gained like a billion Strokes ball striking here last year um I mean over over any of these guys

Really I mean Sam ryers Actually why is Sam Ryder the Min price Sam Ryder is the same price as Chase Johnson who got in on a cfer invite or Nick Hardy who’s been horrible for the last year Sam Ryder $6,000 I’m not saying Sam Ryder’s amazing but Sam Ryder’s got back-to-back top 25s

Here he is capable of playing well he’s got a 31st at Pebble miss the cut and Phoenix which was all because of the Putter and he hasn’t puted great but this is this is way better than a guy who $6,000 for sure for sure okay let’s use

The custom model and figure out some more stuff here so I’ll zoom in a little bit so that you can see actually before I forget what I wanted to do was um I think I saved this last week right so 2024 yeah okay so L because the because

The stat profile is fairly similar for last last week what I wanted to do was open open up that profile for uh this week which well okay tiger gets you know tiger gets a big boost because he has a tiny sample size spread out over a long

Period of time but it’s Scotty Sheffer Justin Thomas Hideki Matsuyama Adam Scott Patrick Klay Rory mroy Tom Kim that’s interesting KL gets a boost uh Adam Scott I’m telling you Adam Scott I don’t know if he’s going to win and I would I would wish I had the coones to

Play him in one and done and maybe I will maybe I I’ve got a lot of entries uh maybe I will I definitely we’ll get to Adam Scott and some of them but man I wish I had like the to be all in to

Be all in on him okay uh let me reset this so what I would do for this week is probably something like this we would do um last 36 rounds for uh Strokes gained off the te for 25 I will do a little bit of a catchall

For strokes gained approach last 24 for 10 but then what I’m actually going to go down and do is put a little more on those buckets so I’m going to do 888 on 150 to 175 175 to 200 200 to 225 so that’s another 24 so we’ve got 41 to

Go I do think the conditions are going to be a little easier than normal I don’t know if that’s going to be easy per se so what I’m actually going to do is I’ll say um birdies or better gained for 10 I will do course history at Riviera

For 10 I’ve got 21 remaining I do need around the green a little bit I could do scrambling or I could do strokes gain around the green I should probably just do strokes gain around the green last 24 for 10 and I’ve got 11 left I didn’t do anything putting wise

Did I I could Do could do putting on poana for 11 more number one golfer Scotty sheffler oh my God it’s Adam Scott’s number two I’m telling you he models well he’s got I mean he passes the it’s just all there isn’t it Victor’s number three if I change

That from if I Chang it to 12 rounds he’d probably drop a lot but it’s not what we’re doing here Colin is four Rory five ludvig six Patrick Klay seven uh Xander is eight Justin Thomas is nine Tony fow’s 10 that’s pretty surprising benan gets up to 12 just kind

Of looking for you know value guys as I scroll through this uh cam young is 15 Lucas Glover is 16 I do not trust that guy uh zalatoris is 19th at 7900 senson is 17 at 66 sunjay gets knocked down Jordan spe gets knocked down pretty far

Uh hom gets a big yeah hom gets a kind of a big knock here he’s 41st at 9,800 bucks which stinks um all right cool well I love that I’m telling you I mean it just feels like Adam scottt weak doesn’t it all right go sign up for Underdog use

The link in the description go sign up for Splash use the link in the description most importantly go sign up for rickr good.com I mean literally I’m trying to make improvements constantly I love it I think you will too um I’ll see you out there on Tuesday see you out

There on Saturday see you on the live chat on Wednesday best of luck and I’ll talk to you guys soon