French horse racing form expert Adam Mills joins Emmet Kennedy to discuss the most intriguing French-bred contenders for the Cheltenham Festival. In this episode, Adam shares his expert in-depth views on Sir Gino, Kargese, Jade de Grugy, Mister Policeman, Daddy Long Legs, Anotherway, Mistergif, Jimmy Du Seuil, Supersundae, Gaucher, and Ocastle des Mottes. Watch now and hop on board the Gravy Train! Follow Adam on Twitter @GeeGeeBanker.
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Welcome to the final F podcast I’m M Kennedy and it is great to once again be joined by French horse racing expert Adam Mills who is sporting his Ralph luren today and why wouldn’t he be because on his debut episode of the show he confidently predicted that sergino
Would beat berett road now you might think well that’s no big thing Kennedy who cares at the time berett Road was the anti poost favorite for the trium ferle and he was very very bullish that that’s how things were going to go not only that he also talked up majb as a
Non-runner no bet scumbag each way bet at a big double figure price for the Triumph and to make things even better he confidently predicted that Willie mullen’s best juvenile hurdler would be KES Carz caressi whatever and she is now the outright second favorite for the trium hurle so having absolutely crushed
It with the juvenile hurdlers he is back to give us his expert insight into the French breed horses for chelham once again my man Adam spectacular debut you must have been enjoying the last couple of weeks it’s it’s been a good couple of weeks yeah when you watch French racing
The Triumph is everything it can it can only go downhill from here emit really you know my first appearance is sort of like there we go that that’s the moment in five years time when Haven h a winner in all that time you’ll look back and
Think well at least he got the first year right but no that was you know that’s fantastic I I’ll be quite you know open and honest and say this Sunday night I sat down looked at all my notes from the previous podcast and thought yeah that went pretty well everything’s
Greened up can’t lose on the Triumph everything’s covered magnificent can’t couldn’t be happier this is I normally get the trifer to WR but those two weeks were just like it was just one of those things when I sat down I looked at both those races and thought this is how
They’re going to go and it’s happened one might say it was say magnifi um so I’m not even sorry actually for that one um let me get your thoughts though on both so Serino obviously devastatingly impressive KES I thought was really good um you were making the point that she
Was very keen on her debut and she hadn’t been Keen in France I thought that was a really fascinating piece of analysis and obviously she settled much better for Dany but how do you compare the two let’s begin with Serino he was devastatingly impressive he’s now odds
On for the tri particularly after uh the spring juvenile mixed results in of we’re in a great spot with caress I’m less so with bunting but more on that to come um but what did you make first of all of Serino it just magnificent really you can’t there’s no way of knocking him
Whatsoever got a good ride settled he jumped so much better than he did at Kempton and at no point watching that race did I ever think badet Road was going to beat him and the minute what really impressed me is as they’re approaching the last you think okay
What’s he going to find up the hill and it’s just like he went from second gear into third gear and it was over up the hill he went he left bedet row behind and let’s not forget at Christmas time I had people telling me badet road was the
Triumph winner we don’t need to run the others and he’s kicked him out of the way now I will have a little note of caution that what I would say is I don’t think badet Road ran his race he was on the wrong side of the track I don’t
Think it I think on days like that at chelham it pays to be on the outside rail closest to the to the main grand stand if you look at the way lossy mouth scooted up the hill that ground looks the right place to be so you could maybe
Make that excuse but what I really used to draw that form line is Milano who is French horse trained by n George and Amanda Zol I’ve got a load of time for marantino I think he’s a wonderful horse for JP mcmanis couple of years time he’ll be a top level Chaser he probably
Too slow to win a juvenile hdle but in November I thought he’ beat betet road and bedet road kicked him out the way I think there were something like seven lengths between them in November you watch the race in January there’s a length between them at the line bantino
Is very consistent he always runs his race but I think you can say badet road was probably six lengths worse than he was in November maybe it’s the track you always have to remember betet rhods had a flat campaign as well so he’s got less Improvement to come will he beat Serino
Again never never in a million years I’d be surprised if badet Road even runs in the Triumph I just don’t think he’s going to lay a glove on him and I think saino is magnificent but what I would say is Serino looks incredibly sexy at the point he’s pulling away from a horse
Who’s not run to his best but is he the right FV for the Triumph absolutely would I lay at even money definitely not I think you know if he ran that Triumph 10 times he’d win more than five of them on a brief very very brief side note JP
McMan is having horses and training in France again that’s interesting for JP little bit worrying for perhaps the British and Irish trainers though possibly it possibly I just wonder if JP and and Frank Barry and Co are looking at the way that Willie is recruiting in
France and really I’d say at the moment French horses are dominating the French breeding program is in a much better position than the Irish and British breeding programs in terms of the way they’re producing young National hunt horses and JP having horses in France I think you will be something that we’ll
See more of in terms of them expanding their network of connections over there it’s very noticeable that Willie Mullins has a team and people think there’s kind of spies in the camp there’s not there’s just good agents good trainers good sets of connections good breeders who know
When we get a good horse we can talk to Willie Mullins and his team about buying it and I think JP’s team want to have a similar operation I think it’s also very significant they’ve invested in Mantino who’s with n George and Amanda Zol for those who don’t know n George is Tom
George’s son but they had a satellite yard in France and now got their own training license they are the coming force in French racing they are the upand comers they are the trainers of Il fron this is the yard that you want to put Progressive young horses with and
It’s no surprise to me that JP has gone that way now they decided to go back to France two or three years time I think you’ll probably see quite a few JP McManus horses probably starting their careers in France in his colors and then the better ones will end up coming
Across but I would think most of them will probably go to Ireland rather than the UK yeah because the the conventional wisdom of the JP team in the past has been acquire these horses from France move them to Nikki John Jil whoever it is in the UK that has then changed to
Now let’s start giving them to Willie Mullins he had zentea last year who obviously rewarded him with a great one win at inry and now he’s got them with actual French base trainers as well and I think the worrying thing about that is you’ve mentioned Ilia France who
Obviously they train as well um that’s a British owned horse TM sorry to mention again the traumatic announcement of that horse apologies for triggering you straight away uh but again there’s a British owned horse who was going to go for the stair Turtle I’m sure he’ll go
For it next year this wasn’t happening for a while and it’s one thing for gold tweet to come over and win a cleave hurdle and then get lapped in the stairs it’s another thing for serious prominent owners of horses in National hunt racing to act in Britain and Ireland to
Actually leave them in training and France it obviously worked brilliantly with first gold and Barracuda back in the day with the dumans but it’s been a long long time since JP has done that and when you then got Joe Chambers Rich Richie’s racing manager saying yeah we’re going to go for the champion
Hurdle with lassy mouth but not the one you think we’re going for the French Champion hurdle and making the argument why are more people not going for that considering the prize money that’s an offer like he makes a very good point there the prize money in France is worth
An absolute Fortune I think Paul Nichols prize money last year I’m willing to be corrected on this three and a half million for being British champion trainer the French Champion trainer was over 7 million and remember Paul Nichols doesn’t get £3.5 million in priz money
Or four or whatever it was he gets 10% of that so it’s 350,000 yeah well this is a good point I was going to make later but we can make it now lots of people have said to me IL fron say why isn’t he going for the
Turners he’d win it anyway and you’d still have time to go for the grand steeple the Perry well let me put that into perspective IL France is without doubt time form rprs everyone agrees he’s the best novice Chaser in training but if he runs in the Turners he’ win
98,000 according to the Racing Post £98,000 which is roughly I don’t know 115,000 Euro with the cost and things to do that he’s probably got to run to an rpr of60 160 plus this year he ran to an rpr 168 at Kempton if he goes for the grand
Ste Chase of Perry which is the French Gold Cup in May the first prize is €45,000 last year’s winner Rosario Baron was given an rpr of 160 Rosario Baron is a very good horse but I wouldn’t back him to win the Ultima so if you were to
Look at what you have to understand about French steeple chasing is horses need to Peak at the age of five and six because they jump hurdles at three they start racing at four they Peak at five the gr Ste with J the Parry for a French trainer is everything absolutely
Everything that is the one race that you want to win the prize money is fantastic it does wonders for your reputation but because it comes in the middle of May it’s really hard to get a horse to Peak at cheltam give them the time to recover
And then come back again so it’s the same argument that we have a lot of times where people say why don’t the top grade one French horses come it’s because of the way the season works but it’s also because of the prize money if you owned El France you could go for the
Turn as a track he’s never been to before the style of racing he’s not used to he’s got ulations to deal with who knows what could happen or you could go to a toy where he’s unbeaten over fences where he’s absolutely magnificent and where you can beat horses who are a
Stone inferior to you for four times the prize money it’s this is where French racing really comes into its own yes it’s a tote Monopoly and not everyone will understand the logic to that but when the prize money is that good why wouldn’t you keep horses in France why
Wouldn’t you keep a young horse in France give it an education you can give it an education you win one of those three-year-old hurdles at all toy there’s 30 grand that’s your first Year’s training fees covered you’re off and running but the education of French horses over hurdles is far superior and
Before we move on to this and I’ll say my final piece from my defensive French racing and how wonderful it is Willie Mullins has run 15 French horses in the Supreme since 2014 of those 15 horses four of them jumped to hurdle in France before they joined Willie Mullins vur duvan Min classical
Dream why wouldn’t you want a horse to jump a hurdle in France and I should say that my good friend Jake price who I do a lot of work with he and I sat down and looked at some stats I produced on French horses and that was something that came out
But just what why wouldn’t you do it the prize money is’s great the schooling’s great we know the system works Viva France I’m not even French but my goodness it’s it makes perfect sense to me and JP if you need any advice on who to buy give us a
Bellon Adam Mills available for consultations for all owners especially especially you JP Frank Barry give him a call uh I just I think given the emphasis on prize money and the fact that there is a total lack of it in Britain um this the success of the French coming
Over is just going to shine a bigger Spotlight on uh you could leave your horse in training in France and still come over and win all the prestigious races and if you think nah that’ll never happen it’s only going to be the select few who do it look at all the British
Owners who’ve put their horses in training in Ireland if you keep putting all of the prize money up into the very upper echelons of British racing that’s brilliant for Willie Mullins Gordon Elliot Henry de bromad and Gavin Cromwell it’s it’s not great for the British trainers because the Irish have
The horses we come over we take up all the big prizes all the prestige all that prize money and everybody else is playing for scraps so interesting thing and it’s just fascinating that now on both sides you’ve got these two countries that could rise France is a
Long way to go obviously but this is the country that is producing all of the talent uh one of those talents of course is car so you have us in a fantastic position for those who watched and listened to that episode you would have been hard pressed not to go with Serino
On the Saturday and certainly Carz uh which of course means I had to stick with bunting because I’m an absolute [ __ ] of the highest order uh but time form has something very very interesting in their ratings sergino 162p no great surprise there Carz 161 they think she’s
Not far off him but obviously they’re expecting Improvement to come from Nikki sourse maybe not so much from Willies what was your impression of her I think I think the race panned out how I sort of thought it might that before the race there was no pecking order
Willie didn’t know which one was his best horse and the way you can tell that is every one of his Runners was given a chance there was none of this like you go here you’re going to Pac make it was just a bit of a cavalry charge after
They jumped the first round to the bend and I just I I thought I’m I’m still sort of half decided I can’t decide whether this was an incredibly strong renewal with five or six Top Class juveniles All In Contention at the second last or was this a terrible
Renewal of the spring Juvenile Where nothing really stood out and they’re not goingon to beat Serino I I thought what was most significant for me was the two horses with the most amount of experience on the track finished one two car guesses had now had five runs over
Her though she was a great three hdle winner of the prian in France she’s really tough she’s really professional she battles well the second storm har he’d had five starts on the flat in France before he came over here so he knows what he’s doing mury is obviously the one to take
Obviously you know for him to do to perform like that having had two starts in his life 10 months apart never raced for Willie before never raced in Ireland before they sent him forwards I thought it was a massive run do I think he’ll win the Triumph no I
Think think he is a chaser of the future it wouldn’t surprise me if they went chasing with him as a four-year-old in the Autumn and I just think things in the Triumph might happen a bit quick for him could he place in a Triumph absolutely I definitely think he could
Hit the frame in the Triumph I don’t think he’s got the class to beat Serino at this stage of his career but maybe in two years time if they’re both in the arkle or whatever they’re running in there’s a chance then that that he might do I wouldn’t give up on bunting
I thought he ran a good race because I think you got to bear in mind bunting’s had two runs both on heavy ground I mean that run at Lim what did he run against the form’s okay but he’s not the not grade one level I thought he ran okay I
Hope you’re bets each way because I don’t I can’t see him giving Seven Pounds to Carz and reversing the form and for that reason I can’t see how off level weights he’ get near Serino will KZ beat Serino the heart says no she gets sounds I
Agree I think time form have got it better than than some other ratings that I’ve seen I think she is top class but I just think Serino might be a freak and I think for KZ to win serino’s got to underperform whereas I think KZ could run absolutely the best race of
Her life and still get beat by Serino but yeah can’t you can’t knock her the way she traveled on Saturday was brilliant she went back to her old self she settled and I was briefly worried when they jumped the second last I thought Danny was going to get squeezed
Out but he didn’t he got through that Gap because that’s what she is she’s tough she’s really tough and you saw that on Saturday she came there swinging and once she got on terms there was only other one win I mean she absolutely fluffed the last so she’s probably Valu
For further if she’d if she’d have met the last properly maybe she the won a little bit further she’s the second best juvenile but after five starts how much more Improvement is there compared to SOS really only had three so the the the the market is exactly
Right which is why I’ll freely admit that I’ve sort of laid everything off and covered it because I just don’t think there’s any angle I don’t want to bet each way in the Triumph now because if I think Serino is going to win what’s the point of an each way bet I’m just
Having a bet for the place money in which case I may as well fart around with the forecast or something on the day if I want to but if you me if you said to me now give me the one two three for the Triumph I would say it’ll be
Serino he’ll be three or four lengths clear a car guess she’ll be three or four lengths clear of probably matur is there anything in the Adonis or anything that you’re expecting to appear That’s in training in Britain that could because it’s been a good trial in the
Past it has so K de ble would be the obvious one for Paul Nichols but they’ve already they’ve already made point he’s a old Cup winner of the future so heaven forbid we win a hurdle race with him Jesus Christ so y well hold on hold on
Hold on hold on now hold on let’s correct the record there they can win a hurdle race at anry but you couldn’t possibly do it at chelton my God man have you have you lost your mind I know right it’s it’s it’s you know it’s just bizarre because of course you know
Winning the Triumph F to really put tiger R’s career peaked maybe that’s a bad example actually because he did have a couple of years where he got beat on the old weather at DOR and a few others but you know but you know he was Wilderness
There for a little bit but to be fair this is also what Paul is saying about Codwell Potter now he has just switched yards but that didn’t stop it didn’t work out for Envoy Ln but he was still sent off favorite when switched quixos did okay he won the trium ferle after
Being switched from Gordon to Henry and Sir Gard yeah worked out okay for him as well but Codwell Potter probably not going to CH them off to entry instead let’s think about if you think about the Adonis so I’d imagine Kell de will go there there’s one I really like called
Captain marvelous trained by Jane Williams he won a juvenile Hurley at Kempton back in the Autumn sort of all been forgotten now I don’t think they’ve got the Triumph particularly in mind but I’d imagine he’ll go for the Adonis I think he’s a nice horse actually I mean
If you wanted to have like a ridiculously stupid British juvenile hler to look out for there is a horse of Paul Nichols called lari who has done very little wrong the problem really for leari unfortunately is he’s winning British juvenile hurdles and as betet Road proved at the weekend winning a British
Juvenile hurdle doesn’t necessarily mean anything as we get towards the business end of the season so leari is a big lad he’s by crackman he won at win Canton he won at anry in December and I thought that would finish him because that was the day at anry where barely anything
Finished the race they really should have abandoned the meeting that they clouded on you know he’s got a lot of he’s he’s got a lot of scope he’s a big lad he won at muscle the weekend I mean this the Scottish Triumph hurdle is not a Triumph
Hurdle trial in my opinion but could I see lari going to anry maybe and popping up yeah he might do if the Irish weren’t there or the Irish first string weren’t there but in in reality will other than Serino will there be a British horse in the first six I don’t think
So I I can’t see anything that makes me think Willie will either win the race or have the second third fourth fth six that’s the way it’s going to kind of fit and your only the only angle into the market is guessing where Serino will
Finish in my opinion I was on a a call with Nikki Henderson today my close personal friend Kang Nam drop the one horse for gelam that he sounded genuinely bullish about wasn’t Constitution Hill it was Serino surprisingly bullish about him um and why wouldn’t you be look he’s the odds
On favorite but so is Constitution Hill um it’s not by the way not that he was sounding lukewarm about the horse who can only run once before the chelham festival but he just sounded very very bullish about sergino and and why wouldn’t he let’s move on to the the Thursday at cheltonham
And what was last year the Jack de brah had Mar’s novice hurdle and the Hors who you want to talk about now I have no idea what context you’re going to talk about this horse but I’m presuming in a very positive one because in my humble
Opinion she’s going to win this race and then that’s the reason why ly mouth will be going for the champion hardle next year not just because the Mullins team think they can beat Constitution Hill next year but because they will be winning it for years to come with Jade
Deui the monster Jade deui um what have you made of her two starts for Willie Mullen so far and why were you so impressed with her and why is she on the list she’s just magnificent is she not I don’t I don’t understand why this horse isn’t even money favorite for the M
Noice she’s just Supreme I mean she was on my radar before she even run for Willie because Adam’s a half sister the side of grui who is probably my favorite champion Jas I loved his attitude and you just you just just look at the way she runs I mean she went she
Won at lean over Christmas by 50 links now that let’s be honest if you took that form apart the horses she beat won’t be going to chelam I think that’s a fair comment to make but she’s five seconds quicker than the handicap hurdle on that day one by music
Atara she’s got Oodles of speed and I just I looked at the way she won the Sol Arena and everyone’s telling me ah well you know that’s entirely different track and different layout and I think yeah but she’s been in a race and if I was to
Compare Jay deui to say da Enos da Enos a great horse Ferg o’ br’s a great trainer daar Enos winning at donc cast room one to n or whatever she was learned nothing because she was a completely outclassed her opposition Jade Gru’s been in a battle she’s got
Loads of experience of what to do in a finish and it all goes back to her debut she won a flat an aqps flat race at St Brio now British and Irish viewers will probably not be familiar with St bruk it’s what’s called a pmh or provincial
Track so you can only bet on course you’ll never find these replays on at the races there’s no International betting on it it’s a small track it’s about six and a half fongs round it’s a right-handed track they have but you have a lot of good aqps races there and
Jade deui won a Big Field threey old bumper there what’s really impressive about that is I have timed 32 RAC at St brick in the last two years and her final circuit time is The Joint fastest and this was on her debut and what I love about this race is you watch it
Back I’ll try and send you the link EV so you can have a quick look at the replay later on but it’s kind of it’s a big crowded field and as they turn for home you’re looking and you have to bear in mind the camera angles at these
Meetings are not great it’s normally a Geer uper pole with his iPhone but as they turn for home she’s unbalanced for about three strides and you think oh she’s going to finish third or fourth and then suddenly she straightens up and it’s instant speed and she goes from two
Lengths behind the leader to two lengths in front in the space of 10 strides it’s got loads of speed the mayor’s novice her was going to suit her perfectly absolutely perfectly because we know from the solaren that she’s got a good attitude I know from the data
That she can run a fast time I know that she can handle all types of ground Deary me what an what how why is no one else seeing this I see people picking holes in her I’m like what are you doing show me a better horse in the mayor’s novice
Hurdle I don’t care she’s got a 5 pound penalty no no no no no 5 pound penalty is irrelevant because she has been in a race if she’s got a 5 pound penalty that means she was good enough to win a graded race I would much rather back a
Horse like her than one like daos who may you know what daos may win in March because we don’t know how good she is is because the novice races she’s been running in don’t tell me anything I watched their race at donc cast and thought what am I learning here whereas
Jade deui has battled hard to win that Sol Arena and I just oh yes she’s she’s I think she’s banking material and I’m sure there’ll be someone watching this who click that up and remind me of it when she finishes 5ifth in March but I
Just I look at her right now and think if I had to ever bet in the May’s no his head it would be her all day long that is all music to my ears cuz I’ve been a huge fan of this horse I do have to just
Ask you about the trip cuz it’s it’s a topic of conversation that is coming up that she’s started out over further over 2 m um the Sal arena is over 2 m 2 I would counter that by saying the new course I’ve said this multiple times the
New course emphasis is on stamina more so speed and also she doesn’t look slow and Willie Mullins is less concerned about trip with his Nova sers as he is about race program and schedule it’s more about just finding a race to get them into as opposed to well this horse
Is a two- mile so I can’t run them over further no he’ll do that um and there’s many examples of horses who’ve dropped in trip or gone up in trip to go and succeed to cheltonham um what do you make of that and in terms of her opposition you mentioned dardo time for
Of her on 135 P brighter days ahead who missed the drf and also missed the solarena which I believe she was meant to go for uh 136p J deji 135 P so there’s nothing between these three according to Time Forum um it’s a cracking rate it’s a stunning Navas
Serle but I do see her as the best so trip first of all and uh and just to expand on Brier days ahead in your review too the trip the trip doesn’t worry me at all first I mean the new course is quite stiff anyway but I think what
People always forget about this race is it’s normally like 15 16 17 Runners if you’ve got a May’s if you got a novice mayor you’re not going to run in the Supreme you may as well come here and run against your own sex so when you get
A big field like that you’ve got a lot of inexperienced Mayes there’s always one or two that go off in front I’ve yet to the only Ral of this race that really didn’t follow that pattern was the one one by Lorina when there was a small field it was soft
Ground it was all over the place but but the the sort of stereotypical approach to this race is that it’s an end to end Gallop from for The Last Mile and it’s just survival of the fittest so I would much rather that she stayed further I’d
Rather have a horse that I think will get two and a half miles in time than the alternative to that is to have a horse who’s sort of an absolute genuine speed ball and it would worry me a lot that if you’ve got a horse that’s purely a two mile speed horse what
Happens if it turns into a real battle which it often does in this race brighter days ahead yeah I I I respect her a lot I just I don’t I just think this Jade de Gru’s unbeaten I just think these are the kind I just want to
Stick with her I’ll stick with her until she’s beaten once she’s beaten I know what she is but I just think there’s so much more Improvement to come and to do what she did on debut was excellent to do what she did at Lepard s over Christmas could be expected because
It wasn’t a great race she’s won the Sol Arena she’s with Willie Mullins she’s French I I just I can’t I I think she should be favorite and Bri days ahead missing the drf starts to sort of think I just think wouldn’t you want if you’re going to
Send a Philly into this race wouldn’t you want to give them as much experience of proper racing as possible it does tend to be a race that kind of it’s a bit rough and tumble it wouldn’t surprise me if they four or five of them in line as they jump the
Last I’d rather have the battle experience on my side ideally I’d love to you know I wouldn’t mind if Jay Dei had another run if she was going down the back of three over hurdles rather than two but Willie knows what he’s doing I can’t I can’t oppose her I won’t
Oppose her whether i’ you know whether I’ll top up again I’m not sure but I see lots of nice Phillies there was a really nice one one at taon yesterday who looks like she’s going the M head I forget her name but it yeah they’re nice horses but Jade
Deui could be anything she could be a 160 m she could be the next honeysuckle I just I just think she’s so good so good so so soon and people are talking people often make the mistake thinking oh well she won a Grade Three she’s got a five pound penalty how much
More Improvement will she find him like she only had two starts over erles give the girl a break you know if she continues to improve on an upward curve how many more will be able to go with her not many she should be favorite for
The race that’s all I can say I just I don’t understand why she’s not even money she’s one of my Best Bets to chel them so this is just music to my ears and I’m half tempted to go back in again um I I I love her I absolutely love her
And you’ve sold me I was already sold but I’m sold even more now the next horse on the list though is one that you’re going to have to persuade not just me but everybody in fact some of you might think he’s lost his mind entirely so just remember he’s gotten an
Awful lot right he speaks a lot of sense bear with him give the man a chance as he talks to to us about why Mr policeman is a horse worth following what what have you seen what have you seen about Mr policeman that makes you want to talk about him on the
Final F podcast and and is it for Place lay purposes or do you genuinely think this horse is going to be able to I think the phrase you used to me before we came on air was I’ve got the key to Mr policeman if you have the receipt
Rich rich probably is looking for that so he can hand them back right well I I just I want to come to this horse’s defense because I just everyone slates him and I think hang on a minute whoa let’s just slow it down and let’s talk about this horse in honest terms so
Firstly let’s let’s talk about why people see him as a failure he arrives from France he was a relatively cheap purchase I think he cost around 40 Grand comes over from France he’s already run a race over hurdles and at the start of this season they announc oh going to send him novice
Chasing he could be a dark horse that gets announced it’s on a couple of pre I think the Racing Post pre-season preview and a few others and before you know it there’s this Snowball Effect where all these people are saying this horse is going to win the arle and
You think what have you seen him jump off fence in public because I haven’t and then he wins on Chase Davey he’s not very impressive I’ll freely admit his Chase deut win was W didn’t want to watch that particularly then he runs for only the fifth time in his
Life over fences and he gets beat by kixo who is a genuine arle Contender a Triumph fle winner and a proven grade one horse and on the back of that there are people calling him Mr pla the policeman there’s one person whose opinion I really respect who suggested
He was a Midlands National Horse and I’m like whoa let’s just rewind a bit here and let’s talk about Mr about what he actually is comes runs in France finishes fourth on debut narrowly beaten by a valdi who’s a good horse with with Paul Nichols sadly injured but he he won
Ascot last year then he wins on his second start at font in blue running the of a 138 races I’ve timed at font and blue since racing resumed after Co in 2020 Mr policeman is the fastest horse from the third last to the line but he won a class four hurdle in
Front France now to put that into context the horses he beat are now rated 98 117 and 89 so he’s got a sexy profile for winning a bad race comes over when he arrives at Willies they’re like what do we do what are we going to do with this
Horse because he’s not a novice so we can’t go the Supreme route with him he’s had a couple of runs we need to give him time to adjust so they give him time to adjust then he comes out and he wins an absolutely nothing race beating cashback off level weights
They do that last April they get to this and they’re thinking all the time what are we going to do and at the first point they were thinking about what we going to do they had the likes of voban statan who were going into open company
This year they get to the stage and think well we got statan and we’ve got imper pass going hurling we got F Al Vega and others but we may as well send him chasing let’s see if he likes it he goes chasing he doesn’t like it he’s by Triple Threat
He’s got a good breeding but his Dam’s man Manan princess she’s out of pivotal there’s loads of flat winners in the immediate family what on this page suggests this horse was going to be an arle winner I’m not so sure the way he jumped on dve wasn’t particularly great but what I
Would say just in his massive defense is he’s a very inexperienced horse he’s got a hell of a cruising speed and if you watch the race when he gets beat by quixos lots of people are saying oh he’s staying on at the Finish he needs to go
Up in trip I see it a different way from the back of the last fence to the line quixos took 20.08 seconds by my hand timing Mr policeman took 19.25 seconds but I’m not sure he’s necessarily staying on what I think he’s doing is he’s quickening and the reason he’s able
To Quicken is because the fences are finally out the bloody way and I just think if I was Willie Mullins and I’m not Willie Mullins Rich Richie and Co don’t ring me and say Adam what would you do if I was Willie Mullins though I would look at at Mr policeman I’d say
He’s had three runs over hurdles let’s have one more run over hurdles and we can run him in a graded hurdle somewhere unpenalized that then gives us the four runs and we’ll get a handicap Mark it’s too late for cheltam it’s just too late you can’t take a horse who’s
Been chasing and hated it and expect just to land him in a county hurdle so whilst he is in the county hurdle betting I don’t think that’s ever going to be the plan but on good ground when he can use his speed and when he’s got a
Handicap mark this is the kind of horse who’s going to pop up in a handicap hurdle at fairy house or a tree or punches town and he’s going to be a much bigger price than he should be over hurdles if they go that route because everyone will associate him with this
Myth that he was once going to be the Aral winner there is loads of speed there he’s always looked a pretty sound jumper to me really slick over his hurdles I’m just waiting and if they finally realize at close Su he’s not a chaser but let’s not give up and let’s
Try the hurdles route there’s a big field handicap hurdle on good ground somewhere that he’s going to bolt up in you don’t look convinced no no no I’m sold I’m genuinely sold I I was initially I wasn’t expecting you to say switch back to hurdles I I genuinely was thinking
You were going to say something along the lines of what has been kind of suggested already go to 2 and a half miles that maybe he’s going to end up being a Turner’s horse and that’s the distance they need uh I wasn’t expecting the hurdle angle and it’s it’s a good
One um they’ve got what four and a half weeks it is too much of a turnaround really to get them there but Willie likes to have a good old team for punches down and he tends to tear that place to pieces and if the Dublin racing
Festival is anything to go by is anybody is there any point in anybody else turning up to punches town it’s not called WP P Mullins um very intriguing what do you think his ideal trip is going to be so do you still think he’s he’s a speedier type yeah I would I
Would what I’d like to see is a big field two mile handicap hurdle I just think too late County hurdle but that would have been ideal for him because what he needs I think is a race strongly run where he can sit swinging away behind the pace and then they can
Deliver him and use that speed I I don’t I I just think that the defense’s campaign probably means you know even if they were to put him over hurdles in the next two weeks it’s a massive ask to then come back for cheltam and you’ve got to bear in mind the British handicapper
Doesn’t like Irish horses and he’ll take that piece of form from last April and he’ll say off level weights he beat cashback and cashback is a high 140 150 type horse I think just I think Mr policeman would be far better off run running in a graded hurdle somewhere and then popping
Up at punches town in May that would be the kind of the route I would suggest and if he gets a handicap Mark of around 145 or so I think you’ll see an entirely different horse over hurdles okay we’re Keeping the Faith and blaming you if it goes wrong
Um Willie Mullins Adam Mills is also available for consultation if you require yeah I do race planning if he wants to yeah just give us a bell yeah it’s just 15% from my end or of course you could just bypass me entirely and go directly to him on the Tweet machine but
No come to me first we get the the 15% we’ll negotiate it down to 10 um the Willie Mullen Bingo discount on the final FR podcast consider it done Daddy Long Legs so he was very impressive I thought anyone he’s hurling debut I thought the world of him at that time
Was very excited I almost backed him for the Supreme I really almost backed him again sorry I almost backed him for the Supreme on the back of the fact that he was being so heavily backed for the future Champions novice hle and I thankfully managed to hold fire because
At that time I couldn’t decide between him and it’s for me as for which of these two is going to be Will’s best two M Nova shler and as it turns out neither of them um you can funny how that thing funny how those things work isn’t it um
The chelam anti poost markets looking like as volatile as cryptocurrency markets um you can excuse his Christmas run the ground was horrible I don’t think you can excuse the run though at the weekend behind B bur what did you make of it and why is he on the
List he’s on the list because I I wanted to make an excuse for the Christmas run and I think I can make an excuse for that that he was second on his only start in France on the flat he ran over 12 furong at s clue the penetrometer
Reading that day was 3.5 so that’s the equivalent in our terms of about good to soft then he goes to thus which is a speed track looks really impressive gets the leopards down he’s held up Off heavy ground it was just far too much too soon he had no
Chance so I wanted to forgive him then this weekend I took the view he should have improved I mean he he ran better than he did at leopardstown at Christmas but you’d be hard pressed to take encouragement from that run to think he’s going to suddenly turn up in the
Supreme now it looked to me like he was ridden in a way that they weren’t sure what he was going to do I don’t think there were lots of Vibes of of like you you know I think Ruby said he’s been underestimated a few other people said you know forget that
Christmas run look at what he did on deut great but I felt the way that he was rid at the weekend suggested they weren’t entirely sure how what at what stage he was at he heard better he kept on without really exciting me what do they do now he’s had three
Runs over hurdles in the old days they might have chucked him in the county but they need a fourth run now it’s far too late to give him I don’t know I’m really not sure what they do with him he’s by Al manzor you know he’s Dan was a a
Listed winner on the flat there’s lots of speed it wouldn’t surprise me if Willie said why don’t we give him a flat campaign still a maiden on the flat so maybe he goes into that kind of mold that they give him a little bit of the
Bre of a break give him a couple of runs when the flat Turf season pans out and think about something like Royal Ascot or goway I’m not sure he won’t be winning the Supreme though so this is you know I I’ve been very sort of cocky at the start of this
And look at all these anti poost bets I’ve landed on the Triumph well this is one of my anti poost that’s got a nice red line through it on the Excel sheet and that red line is very unlikely to be deleted can’t imagine it mean on a line
Through Cletus Pula he’s buried him on debut and obviously Cletus Pula was very impressive in a maiden hurdle himself but in between that the 13 lengths that daddy longlegs beat him by was usurped by B bur beating him by 29 so he’d have
A a little bit to do um to get to his level he would have been fascinating for the county if it hadn’t been for the state man rule for sure but he could be another one for a punches down handicap I wouldn’t give up on him I wouldn’t
Give up on him at all I don’t think he was a fluke on debut but he is a horse who comes into things with with questions to answer um another way so we’ve seen him twice now uh and he’s another Contender for William Mullen Bingo he made his debut behind no flies
On him I love that horse and I’m really certainly with what B bur did at the weekend very pleased that he didn’t take him on it wouldn’t be an Edward or Grady thing to do to go from a maiden into a grade one and just his second start so
He’s going to punch his town for I think it’s a Grade Three it might be a grade two I apologies off the top of my head I I don’t quite remember that um no flies on him by the way he won the same point to point that Captain Teague and fery
Hollow won but he won it in a quicker time than both and he beat Jango Bay and on that same day Jango Bay comes out and wins the grade one for being L serle by the time this podcast goes out he will either be about to run or will have run
Again uh at a smaller track and hopefully will have got on to win again so I think this sow flows on him as a serious operator and could still be underestimated for the Supreme much to my chrin Tom seagull put him up I have massive respect for Tom seagull
And I’m a huge huge fan of him and he’s one of the nicest men in racing too but why’d you have to go and do it Tom he was 33 to1 and no one was talking about him and then you come along and he’s 16s
Damn it um so look let’s see how how he gets on on his next CH at punchestown but another way was well held by him he since come out and won though impressively himself so he’s franked no FES on him form too which is why I’ve
Gone off in that little bit of a tangent um half brother to concertia of course the owners had great success with at chelham I don’t even have to ask you why he’s on the list he’s fascinating and his breeding is fascinating half brother the concertia you know everything points
There and if you look at the family there there’s quite a good sort of mix of stamina there’s F say 12 furlongs but there’s a bit of speed there’s some seven furong in there I I guess that that the the run when he got beat sort
Of on one hand I think he was 13 to2 that day but he he weakened pretty tamely and I just wonder if it was one of those kind of he needed the outing he was all a bit of a all to see I guess the question with another way
Is what he won at punches town was good in Sams if he was seven seconds faster than the handicap hurdle over the same course and distance so that looks good did he beat much we’ll find out I’d be surprised but I just wonder what how much more Improvement is there he’s one
From six on the flat in France he did win a maiden at shant T but then he stepped into class two conditions races which is sort of a 75 to 95 kind of bracket and he couldn’t win those so after six starts on the flat couple over herles he’s a nice
Horse in time I think he’ll be a better horse but I I think the reason I put him on the list is yes he’s a half because he’s a half brother of the concerti everyone goes oh well he must be a two mile hurdle Prospect and he might be but
They might also look and think we if if hurling doesn’t work we’ll just throw him on the flat and I just to me sometimes I see people think because he was all right on the flat and he’s a half brother to concertia he’s got to be a grade one herdle Prospect I don’t
Think he’s anywhere near that I think he’s much more likely to end up as either a handicap hurdler or a decent flat horse and Willie isn’t afraid to mix the the two I mean we saw with absurd at the weekend you know as an ebore Runner winner running in a in a
Grade one novice but I just felt there was a little bit of an overreaction to the win at punchestown although the time was good it came on heavy ground and what when I look at those class two conditions RAC in France they’re a great guide because you get good horses in
There horses a winner Maiden don’t have to go straight in the handicaps in France they can go into these conditions contests but a lot of them tend to be very competitive and they’re always a really strong Sprint finish and he didn’t have the speed to win those
So is there if if he gets if for example they decide to throw him in the Supreme do I think he’d have the ability to lie up with Bal burn and Sprint and get involved in the Finish no not at all I don’t think he’s in quite the same
League but he is another one and Willie has got an arsenal of them this year but he is another one who I look at and think you know what if it doesn’t work out over hurdles we can always keep going in the summer mix and match with him but of all
The Willie’s kind of French prospects he’s the one that I’m least excited about at this stage but if he rocked up at if I saw if the signs were that he was going on the flat I’d be intrigued because French racing doesn’t suit this kind of hor could it steadily run to
Votes into a Sprint something like Ascot with a stiff finish in a Big Field would massively suit one could argue that if jumping doesn’t work out this season they could go another way it’s the low hanging fruit it’s the obvious ones they just yeah they don’t those ones don’t work
Moving Sly along he’s a brother to a group two winner and a listed winner on the flat both so it’s a very very interesting take um but remember the least of the horses that you’re excited about uh the Double green feature prominently on this list and they’ve
Also got Mr GF he said two starts over hurdles in France very impressive at Lick in a Nava SLE I’d say he stepped up and what he’d done in France I wouldn’t have a notion a very very basic grasp of the French form book um this is where
You come in but he’s won that by 18 links well we think 18 lengths might have been 15 might have been 20 depends on who was on Judy that day um if you read that article in the racing post about how they accumulate Irish winning
Dear me uh he’s got entries for both of the big grade one novices at the chelon festival with all due respect to the potato race it’s the Supreme and the bearing Bingham um is he a potential Dark Horse for one of those races yeah I think he is actually and he
He he changed my mind entirely really in in the way I mean if you look at his flat career futurz on the flat rated 73 on the flat Zero from nine Rings alarm Bells but then he goes over hurdles he was beaten 10 links in the preeno but that’s
A really good three-year-old newcomers hurdle in the Autumn can certainly forgive that next start of hurdles he’s second to javelo beaten four lengths javal would be rated 136 now that’s a pretty fair mark for a three-year-old hurdler and a youngster sorry for things to get to it’s fair form in France I wouldn’t
Say it’s top grade form but it’s good and then he goes to lick and he makes all the time was at least 5 Seconds faster than every other race including the bumper so I think you could beat him with the stick that the horse in second
Has got a rating of 106 and you well but horse can only beat what he beat and he made all it’s not like he came swinging past the horse rate 106 and he the one of the main reasons is he fits the stat that I said earlier
About French horses with Willie who run in the Supreme who’ve jumped hurdles in France now let’s be clear before someone tries to say you said Mr GIF was as good as VOR he’s not in the same league as vur Min classical dream du van he’s not in that league but he’s got
Experience I I can’t knock him for what he did at Lim I think that was at first I was I was really Keen to say this is a lowgrade card he’s beating low grade ORS he’s don’t overreact but then when you look and think what he made all the ‘s
Really good he can only win that’s all he could do he didn’t really come out of second gear I think he is a dark horse for the Supreme would he would he win a supreme probably not I think there’s got you know I haven’t really made my mind
Up about the Supreme but I don’t think he’d win it but I think he could easily finish in the first three or four and I think there is a lot of ability in this horse I just felt of all of kind of willies and I don’t Wily’s French horses
Probably are the main players in the Supreme but I think he’s the one who’d run in that kind of diverge mold from last year of sort of he’ll run really well he’ll really like the way the race pans out and he’ll definitely be there to sort of pick up some of the Lesser
Money does he have the class to be a grade one winner at the chelon festival probably not but if you wanted to have an each-way swing you could do a lot worse I think they have to go here I’d be very surprised if they went to the bearing Bingham or whatever it’s called
I I just thing it would be an enormous ask to give him his first start at limmerick in a pretty small race and then expect to go to go up in tripet gentan and and what that would bring but I I mean if if
If he turned up in a supreme and I’d had no other bet I would probably back him each way he’s 33 to1 for both races at chelham you’re leaning towards Supreme as you mention that there’s been an awful lot of discourse including on this show about
Where is Bell bur going to go um George Gorman is very much of the opinion he should be going for the Supreme ktie young and I are both very much of the opinion he should go for the bearing Bingham I think that is the race he’s
Going to go for I think it’s just logical unless you don’t think a whole lot of mystical power so if I was to push you right now which way do you think those two horses are going to go um well what I would say is I think if mystical power had any other
Dam the price would be bigger yeah maybe that’s you know I don’t know am I being a bit AR there I’m not sure I don’t I I just look and I hear people talking I think well let’s just slow it down here a minute and think about what this horse has actually achieved
Unbeaten we’ve got no idea what the horse might be but there’s nothing that I’ve yet seen from mystical power to suggest that that horse is as good as any power and yet it’s being talked of as if if they’re the same I have a real problem with
Galileo as a hurdle sire I just don’t like him I don’t like the jumping style I don’t know what it is there’ll be people who point to examples of galileos have been very sound jumpers but I just I’m not sure if it was me I think mystical power should
Be in the Bal mall or the bearing Bingham that’s the way I would go and I’d because you look at b b burn one at the weekend maybe what you think of it but he impressive that was impressive the Supreme is quite although it’s the shorter race it’s often the stamina test
You know you look at some of the winners of the Supreme vur is a great example you know he was almost a King George winner but he got further as he he got better I just think the Supreme will suit Bal burn and if you think you can
Win the Supreme with Bal bur why would you run mystical power there why wouldn’t you look at Mr capan Thing by Galileo by Annie power should have a decent cruising speed should have a bit of stamina we’ll pick up the bearing Bingham I mean what I would say is I’m an outsider looking
In because if they’re not French I don’t really care but at the same time this year’s novices are all over the place it’s really hard to say what’s going to run where who’s going to run in what I mean I don’t I don’t have a bet on the
Supreme I haven’t even got a bet on the bearing Bingham I’ve got one bet in an novice heard which is Lecky Watson for the albertt Bartlett each way which is not really my opinion I just heard the likes of Roy Del argue say what I was thinking
That this horse stays one and runs his race so that’s why I went for him in the Bartlet I just don’t I don’t know I look at the Supreme Market the one I want to take on all day long is Jericho de repon I haven’t seen anything from me so far
That would suggest that’s a supreme winner I just think a British horse winning British novice hurdle is nowhere near the same as an Irish horse winning Irish novice hurdles and I I think you can just look at it and think I I thought the race at
The weekend Bal burn ran a massive race he got the better of slade steel who I think is a wonderful horse so therefore that form is strong and if I think that form is strong then surely Bal burn should go to the Supreme because you
Know he’s got the speed to beat a really classy type two M suits him there’s plenty of time to go up in triping if they want to go to the Turners next year or whatever I would I I just I would lean towards b b in that and I’d look
Elsewhere for mystical power if they wanted to split them up it’s not unlike JP to ran a couple in the same race Woody doesn’t mind running a few in the Supreme so they might both go B Burn’s the right favorite would I back him at five to four no chance imp Perry pass
Won the mcow flare and then went for the well it’s always the baring being a m that’s what it’s registered as he had won over two M to though though whereas I think it would be a very odd thing to ask mystical mystical power to step up
Two M to 2 m 5 at chelton with no experience of it he’s Brad for it for sure for Bal bur’s long-term development who is this horse going to be he’s going to be a g cup horse and given his pedigree I think for his long-term
Development the best race for him is the bearing Bingham and he will be a dominant favorite of that race he’d be a dominant favorite for anything in the Nova ctle race as a chelt and he’ll probably win he’d win the potato race he’d win the Supreme do and hand stands
He’ll win the bearing Bingham if mystical power is going to win a chelham his best chance comes in the Supreme he’ll be favored for it I don’t necessarily think he’ll win because I’m not entirely certain I believe that performance for mystical power Gordon Elliot’s horses were w’t running well
How good is jigaro anyway Willie’s other horse who Paul townend was riding because Mark is always going to be on board mystical power completely bombed out and run no sort of race but I can’t tell you that that race means nothing in form and then say in fact the file is
Going to crush everything in the Turners when his race completely fell apart and won I can’t be a hypocrite well I can be but I’m not going to be in in this particular moment he could go for either I have absolutely no Insight I have no
Idea as to which one and even if I was being told from someone in the art it’s Will’s going to decide and he’s going to decide pretty late in the day if they both stay sound I would be inclined to think that they will be split B bur going the
Longer trip mystical power going supreme but you think differently George thinks differently and I respect both of you greatly and I am very much biased on this because I’ve backed belly bur for this and I haven’t backed him for the Supreme so I could be horribly now now we’re getting to the
Crux of the matter here that you’ve actually backed him and you’re trying to persuade Willie that the valy Moore is the better mate there is absolutely no way that Willie Mullins is sitting in CL and going geez I wonder what EMT thinks about this whatever he says is what
We’re going to do like doesn’t it’s irrelevant will will decide and rarely gets it wrong it’s rarely a misstep from him particularly with these novice ERS I would be of the opinion this is almost Sir Gerard 2.0 and and by the way there’s a narrative out there as well
That the reason sir garard went for the Bingham Bingham was because they were trying to avoid Constitution Hill no one knew who the hell Constitution Hill was Constitution Hill wasn’t favored for the Supreme dyser Dynamo was favored for the Supreme join favorite with John Bon nobody was talking about Constitution
Ill as being the horse he is now so that’s not why sir Gard went for that race went for the race they thought would suit his long-term development I think is what they’ll do with this fell as well do it Willie do it put B bird in
The buing and Bingham come on just very briefly again on Mr GF you’re a big fan of zarak as a as a s I am I am and you know I’ve in the last year I’ve probably changed my opinion a little bit of zarak that you
Know I keep going back to because I I don’t want to seem smug but you can look up if you Google my blog and then type in zerak the brave there’s a lovely 500 words on why you’ll never win over hurdles and he’s a complete waste of
Money went went well that yeah yeah that’s yeah dear me you know when whenever I’m feeling too cocky I read that back to myself and it brings me right back down to you know you don’t know what you’re talking about Mills keep quiet but I I am a big fan of
Zarak he they just they seem to run through walls and it that they’re just so I think the thing with Zar is when he first started AAR he probably didn’t get the Mayes he deserved you know that that’s how I actually refer to my wife that when I
First started I didn’t get the the women I deserved and it took me a while to find the right one but now oh my God you saved yourself oh my God where you were going with that I thought divorce papers are about to be filed he’s gonna be sleeping on couches
You well done that was a good she she knows she refers to herself sometimes as the upgrade so it’s that kind of but that’s what I mean with zarak is it’s sort of actually he was judged in his first couple of seasons based on the Mayes he
Was sent there was some aqps in bits and pieces then the last few years it’s just got better and better and if you watch the horses he has on the flat in France they all stay well they all seem to settle well and it’s just he’s getting
He’s the coming Force he and carar are the two SI that in a few years time you’ll see there will be eventually a champion hurdler by zarak they’ll be a champion Chase winner by Carri tar they’re just the new generation that are filling some of the French ranks but I
Just I am whenever I see a zarak now I just massively upgrade them I just think this is this is AAR who’s really going places and I think Will’s kind of cottoning on to that as well there there’s there’s a few Zar that have started to head that
Way and you know you have to look at I watch Zar the brave win the other day and just thought just although he wasn’t the greatest horse on the flat in front he looks a different animal over hurdles completely different so professional you know he might actually
If he ran in the champion hurdle he would probably finish third so there’s lots to like and that that’s why that’s why I look at the likes of Mr GIF and others and just think that this kind of French breeding approach is a good one
By the way when Bal burn bolts up in the Supreme I will feel like how you feel when you read that blog about zarak the brave I’m fascinated by the psychology of betting and the psychology of racing because every jockey will ride more losers than winners every trainer will
Train more losers than winners and every betterer will back more losers than winners there has to be a psychological impact to that it’s a funny game in that regard Jimmy dooy is a horse that I wanted to talk about but I’m fascinated to hear your opinion on this horse I was
Really disappointed with this fellow when he was beaten on debut um for Willie Mullins first of all who the hell is that 7even foot jockey riding the winner and secondly how the hell did the horse who got beaten in a Hunter Chase come along and suddenly improve to go and win a maiden
Hurdle for Willie Mullins well the for with Asian Master looks pretty damn good now to be fair um he’s a 5-year-old Jimmy dooy and he’s by the same sire as galam Maro and voban what can we we’ve seen him since and he’s won at long odds on his jumping needs to improve pretty
Dramatically but I think he’s a nice Prospect what do you make of him I do I do think he’s a nice Prospect he’s got a great grounding so he ran in aqps flat races in France but they were good aqps that races so you know they’re really
What will be classed as a bumper over here fifth at San Maro I can forgive that because s Malo is quite a tight turning track relies on a bit of speed the second at font and blue is the race that really stands out for me jumas sakra won the race he’s great he’s
Placed in great three bumpers jedu s was third on his next start he was third in in what is effectively the French Champion bumper the big grade one aqps at font and blue jit langi was fourth he’s now with Willie Mullins that form really Stacks up the Clone M race is
Good it was the best furong average of the day it was truly run he was certainly quicker than keer borbon who run run the the moner hdle on the day I guess the final circuit was slower though and I think it was quite a stamina sapping performance I think with
Jimmy D saw you’re looking at a horse who’s going to stay well but I have a reservation and that’s when you start to look at some of the family they Peak pretty early and there’s quite a bit of regression in there you know you’ve got the likes of the example I’ll
Give is hero doy who’s in that family he was with Nicki Henderson one on DAV at kton looked like a real Superstar never really went on with Jimmy doy I guess I’d be looking for like I want to see him do it somewhere other than Clon Mel on heavy ground in
January before I’d be massively excited but I can’t pull his French form’s great he’s got experience those a QPS races are good because they really they do get racing they teach them stamina they teach them the battle is he a chelon winner but probably not I don’t think he’s in that
Kind of class but I could see him in time if he progresses developing into a nice novice Chaser and then eventually a decent handicapper well that’s him taken out of my tracker until next year we’ll leave him in for now but the idea of him winning anything at chelam had already
Fallen by the wayside but it’s really Fallen by the wayside now Super Sunday no they haven’t just lost their minds and decided to put Jessica Arington horse back in training there’s another Super Sunday spelled just slightly differently but not a whole lot 5-year-old by authorized sire of jel
Grand national winner at Tiger R and obviously a sire that William ens has had great success with I am Maximus winning the Irish Grand National Echoes and rain and Nichols Canyon being absolute stars for him he’s been bought by The Roaring water Syndicate they’ve had a lot of Success With Willie Mullins
And bought some shrew horses over the years yeah they know their stuff so what is it that Drew them to this fellow and what has drawn you to him well firstly you may not be his name is spelled s u p r s u n D- AE so it’s
Super Sunday rather than Super Sunday with an A but he’s actually a half brother to Super Sunday just to confuse the matter and make it nice and difficult for us to separate the two he’s bi authorized he was trained by the Paco yard finished seventh in the pre-
Wild Monarch in 2022 the pre- wild monar last year was won by Gino that’s a brilliant race bit fragile because he then missed pretty much a year came back at compan in April 2023 traveled really well had the stands side rail he probably should have won but he didn’t but he finished
Second still a novice the form is really good the winner one next time the third was L Bron who’s now a Willie Mullins the fourth has won a race he’s rated 116 the fifth is rated 116 the ninth has won two races rated 115 the horse in 10th
Has won three races he’s rated 117 and a horse he pulled up has won two as well that form is really good he’s got a supreme entry he’s had a couple of sort of entries and not appeared who knows with him but he is one to keep on side if
Nothing else because he’s a half brother to Super Sunday he was s paa Su n da this one is actually spelled super correctly s p or s n d AE it’s clever naming actually to be fair to the to the team involved but he’s going to be very
Very high on the list so the Frankle I mentioned earlier on is Goucher so the first Frankle that Willie Mullen trained was diverge last year and he took really well to hurling to be fair ran a Blinder in the Supreme question is though is this fell going to be able to follow in
His hoofprints he’s not bred for this he’s by Frankle out of a group one winning mayor left hand she won the group one pre from my back in 2016 so he BR to be a proper flat horse that didn’t quite work out though uh he’s owned by
People who’ve had a lot of Success With Willie Mullins Mrs Rose Boyd and Mrs Marie J Armstrong they a cheltam festival success in the Martin pipe with kalala Vic back in the day he hasn’t run since October 2022 but this isn’t anything unusual for Willie Mullins he
Often takes ex French horses and gives them plenty of time to strengthen up what is the appeal in your mind for him well I think you got to look at what he achieved on the flat and I think that also explains the break that he had nine
Starts on the flat quite a busy campaign obviously with this pedigree he’s a Franco as you said he’s out of a group one winner it’s a Franco dubar cross you know when he was bread no one was thinking he might win a novice hurdle in
A few years time but here he is two from nine on the flat for Carlos laon peras pretty steady horse I’m fairly sure he’ll see out the two miles no problems his last appearance was a class one conditions race at Perry longamp he achieved a French rating of 41 kilos on
The flat which is roughly 90 so he’s a decent flat Horse by any means the second is was valad the third was lanaris they sort of mid 80s horses it’s a good yard stick he cost 260,000 I don’t like galileos over hurdles so I’m not entirely in love with Frankl
Either but he does fit into that kind of diverse mold as he’s got some entries this weekend if he if he ran well and W on Deb over hurdles it wouldn’t surprise me if they thought s it let’s just throw him in the Supreme and see what he does
Because although he’s not experienced over hurdles he’s very experienced on the flat and the Supreme does sometimes play to horses who’ve just got experience of any kind and I just think it wouldn’t surprise me if if they could get him to win a maiden H the
First time out they may as well have a go what else are they going to do if he takes up if he’s had entries it assumes he’s ready to race therefore why not you know it’s he’s a 90 rated flat horse going hurdling that if you sort of how
Whatever allowance you make that would suggest he might be cap of running eventually in sort of between 140 150 as a hurdler is he going to go chasing I’d be very surprised so he’s probably the type that they might mix and match with the difficulty I guess for them
Is because he’s been off the track for a while and he had the big price tag they may as well try hurdling because you can try hurling now if he doesn’t take to it you can you still you’re just getting him ready for the flat season that would
Be the I guess the angle they look at it I can’t really knock him on the flat he wasn’t top class but he was certainly better than most flat horses who try hurdling would I back him at even money in his Maiden hurdle davut which is
Probably the price he’ll be no I think I’d watch him because he’s not bred for it but he’s got size he had a bit of scope the time off doesn’t worry me you know if you wanted to have an absolutely outrage just bet for the Supreme you
Could probably back him non-run and no bet because he he’ll either win his maid n and go there or he won’t with his maid and they won’t run him at all but I think he’s another one that sort of they should be out of mix and match with and
I think that’s the plan from what I can sort of read between the lines of the way they’re campaigning him we’ll try hurdles if it don’t work we’ll go back to the flat but he’s got ability nightly rated flat horse you know there that if
He took to hurling could he run into the first five in a supreme maybe he’s not going to win it because if he was going to win it I’d have sent him hin by now diverge went to the Supreme on the back of just two runs but he had made his
Debut at the leopardon Christmas meeting and he was pretty well beaten there and then exploded into life and absolutely bolted up so it’s slightly different for this guy and also going to the Supreme on the back of just one run horses have done it but it doesn’t work out well for
Win purposes um he could be a fascinating eway play though in the race and as you kind of alluded to earlier on the Supreme is just a bit of a nightmare to get your head around they all are all the novas Turles are the last one is arguably the most fascinating horse at
Least for this week anyway um but arguably the most fascinating horse of all of them well Cil deot who said to make his debut for Willie Mullins in the bed Fair hurdle this weekend and he’s already favored for it he’s a four to one shot and yet another for the double
Green of Monir and sued so no prizes for guessing why he’s on the list given the profile but what do you expect to see from him on his hurdling debut for Willie Mullins this weekend plenty of experience though in France loads of experien in France really good form and
If you if you look at his the form book in pure form it will say he won a hurdle race at compen and he beat a subsequent grade one winner which he did he beat Amy deff by seven lengths Amy theifs went on to win the grade one primaris
Gilir but you need to watch that primar gilir to understand that the first two in the betting both unseated the race completely fell apart on heavy ground with rain falling and am the picked up the pieces so it’s not as straightforward as thinking he’s hammered a grade one winner so he’s
Thrown in but he’s a very good horse he won a handicap at hurdle at or toy in June giving weight away he beat horses who are rated 118 and 123 so he certainly ran to the Mark he’s got which is 133 but what makes this horse fascinating is he had entries in Ireland
And the Irish handicapper went Mark of 139 but in the UK he’s running off a mark of 133 and the reason he’s doing that is because since 2022 the BHA handicapper has applied a simple rule to French marks we take the French Mark in kilos and we times it by two and that’s
The mark you get his French Mark is 66.5 kilos so his BHA Mark is 133 he an entering the BET H when the um the entries were first published at that stage he was 12 to one when he didn’t Rock up at the drf he’s just been steadily backed and he’s
Being backed like they think he’s got loads in hand I’m not so sure he’s got I don’t think he’s got a stone in hand and if he has Willie Mullins has obviously found Improvement because his French form would suggest he’s a mid to high 130s horse but he’s being back like defeat is
Out the question really and this has been a consistent stream now there’s a fly in the ointment which the Racing Post published today that said if the weather’s really bad they won’t be able to get him over on the boat and that’s going to play Havoc with the
Anti post markets but who knows you can’t do anything about the weather his breeding’s quite good there is there is a snow and ice warning for Ireland as well there is and it’s you know let’s see if he doesn’t turn out he doesn’t turn up but what’s fascinating
About the way and my understanding of this BHA rule is if he doesn’t run in Ireland he will always have a a British Mark of 133 until he runs because they have no choice but to use their system of converting the French Mark I personally think he’s probably
Got about 5 to seven pounds in hand based on his French form therefore if Willie Mullins has found any Improvement this horse could be the good thing that he looks and I think it’s really significant that Willie Mullins has decided we’re going to run this horse straight in a bet Fair hurdle
We’re not going to give him any kind of prep run although not a novice and it would have been harder to place him they could easily have said we’ll run him behind statan somewhere and he can finish fifth but they said no we they obviously think this Mark is very
Workable we he’s good enough to go into a handicap hurdle and where he’s going to be real of real benefit is he’s won a handicap hurdle in at a toy he’s got loads of form in Big Field French races the BET fer herder won’t worry him in the slightest he’s ground
Versatile you know I I’ll I’ll honestly I backed him I backed him I was waiting for the drf Declarations and as soon as I saw he wasn’t declared to run at the drf I went out and backed him not at the fancy 12 to1 he was three
Weeks ago when it was first brought to my attention but I backed him and I thought you you just I want to find out let’s find out in my head I’m thinking there’s a little bit in hand and I’m always wary with the BFA hurdle because you’ll have some novice that’s probably
Got 10 pound in hand but for Willie Mullins to decide this Mark is good enough we’re going straight to newb that’ll do for me he’s a better judge than I am and on his French form I I certainly don’t think he’s badly handicapped so you know if he makes it the r& will
Be I’ve finally got ahead of one of these Willie Mullins gambles and the Bloody weather will ruin it and yeah when when and then I’ll be like one of those mugs on the phone can I have a Justice refund please so it’s like you
Know you got to you’ve got to you got to really just take the rough with the smoo an post but a come on lad was snoring for goodness sake ways yeah but I I just think I I all of the clues would suggest that he’s gonna go well he’s got the
Form in the book if it was if it was with any other trainer I wouldn’t touch it because i’ think not sure but this is Willie Mullins the horse has to improve in that yard surely and if Willie Mullins and his team sat down and said we don’t need
To do anything with this horse he’s already ready to go to the BET Fair hurdle that’s got to be enough you mentioned the ground he’s only raced on sof to heavy in France is that any concern for you not really the French ground readings are I say it diplomatically anomalous
Shall we say so yes the all toy run round is definitely soft other race is it’s nowhere near that bad new is going to be I guess somewhere between good to soft and soft depending on the weather doesn’t worry me in the slightest and and a lot of these French
Horses there’s this assumption that French horses need soft ground but that’s half the time because the going readings in France are very different to the going readings here I haven’t seen anything in his form that would worry me in the slightest on a scale of 1 to 10
How confident Are you eight I’ll give it an eight and the I give it an eight is because I don’t study British handicap hurdles particularly so there is the chance oast deont might have as I as I think he might have five to seven pounds in hand but he bumps into some unexposed
Novice who’s had four runs and he’s got 20 pound in hand so there’s always that risk but I I just think when I looked at those at the head of the market I thought we know least about what this horse will do
So I I’d be I I’d be if he turn if he gets here I’ll be stunned if he’s not in the first four Serino cares can Adam Mills do it again I think he can which is why I’ll be following him in blindly with this horse for the
BET for hurdle uh over the weekend assuming that is that he actually is on the boat and uh makes his way over fly borrow one of Aiden’s planes I’m sure Aiden’s not using it at the moment Grand the cool more boys will sort you out they’ve got shares in
Mystical power they’ll all be grand castle theats for the bed Fair hurdle of all the horses we’ve talked about with a view to the chelham festival uh you can’t say Jade deui because she’s nap material so Jade deui aside who is going in for the double who is the other one
You’re really intrigued by Serino is the obvious one I think Serino will win the Triumph I’d love to find an Hy angle against him but I don’t think there is and then then we’re starting to struggle we are starting to struggle I guess if you
Wanted if if if you said to me kind of give me the strong bet I’d wait for the day and on the Triumph I’d back the trifecta so Gino to beat Carz to beat mbra because I think those three juveniles are clear of the rest and I
Think they’ll finish in that order so you’re going to have an even money favorite beating a nin to2 shot and probably a 10 chance but as as you’re looking at me emit like he wanted a double the other double I’ll give you is Jade deui and IL fron to win the King George
He’s nine to four the King George is definitely the plan if he doesn’t win a King George James reevley should retire because that horse is Miles better than any of the British or Irish horses that will turn up in that race in December you might not have noticed this but my internet
Has been conspiring against me ever since I got this fancy new 5G from three satisfaction guaranteed or your money back well let’s put that to the test CH because it’s been absolutely brutal Adam I greatly appreciate your Insight on behalf of all the listeners and viewers we greatly appreciate your
Insight we’re looking forward to having you on the final for podcast again before the chelham festival we’ll chat to you soon Adam uh where can people find you on the Tweet machine and where is that brilliant blog on the Tweet machine it’s G Banker feel free to
Follow if you want to ask any questions just drop me a DM or tag me in something I’ll always give you an opinion good or bad and there’s predel horse.com which is my blog where you’ll find me ranting about all wether Maiden times at Po and anything I see that catches the eye
Always happy to have a chat anyone wants any advice or just an opinion on a frch yours or just to tell me where I’m going wrong feel free to drop me a line my internet did it again I’m going to have to get Elon Musk start Link at this
Point the whole thing is ridiculous three for all your Broadband needs unless you hate the internet that is if you liked this episode of the final fom podcast please do hit the like button if you just enjoyed all the brilliant expertise from Adam Mills and the entertaining way that he brings it
To you a like and of course a subscribe on YouTube would be much appreciated from all of us look after yourself and each other thanks for watching thanks for listening God bless
5 Comments
The best 2024 Cheltenham Festival antepost show on YouTube. Keep up the good work guys.
Mistergif for County Hurdle ? Thoughts ?
I will be very interested in which horses are ' planted ' JP novice hurdlers for future handicaps
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Ps : Betfair
JP's ridden by Nico D.B at Nicky H's favourite track was the Proven ideal first 5 ew
Great podcast! As someone who's looking to for more information about French racing. Any websites or any other media that could push me in the right direction? Really enjoy the french coverage so looking to get more involved in international racing 🐎