2024 Genesis Invitational Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds | Tiger Woods Returns

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 Genesis Invitational Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
2:26 Quick Info & Why This Week is Important to the PGA Tour
12:32 Course & Stats
23:13 History
29:01 Riviera Model/Field
32:51 Stat Model Results
39:10 RIV Putting
46:37 Course/Mixed Conditions
53:25 Betting Odds

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A experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience the Genesis Invitational picks research preview guess the odds for the signature event the first Invitational I guess Tournament of Champions is technically an Invitational is Pebble Beach are the Signature Events just invitationals why is this one an

Invitational maybe someone knows I do not know these things anyway if you’re here smash the like to the episode sub to Mayo media Network download the podcast sub to the audio platforms leave the rating and review all that fun stuff my walk through today is powered by fantasy national.com I’ll be revealing

The new rolling report tool that we finally have back in Action it is fast way faster and much better than ever you can wait everything so once we get into the breakdown of everything and we’re adding things to the model I’ll show you how the new rolling report works because

You can do it for anything then add it to your mixed condition model it’s kind of awesome and like I said no longer takes like 30 seconds to load it’s like boom let’s go now when I do it it takes like 30 seconds it’s going to feel

Really stupid but you know I can edit around that it’ll be fine uh either way fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off as we’re speaking the third round has not yet concluded in Phoenix because of weather frost delays if there’s no frost delay on Sunday

Morning I think that they can get it in all before the Super Bowl if not you know maybe just hold the final three groups for Monday let them play 15 16 17 and 18 just have everyone come back fill the stadium get an extra day of tickets

Out of it hell let them all in for free sell some extra booze and you might be good to go that would be thrilling TV for a post Super Bowl hangover the schedule this week is a little bit different me and Jeff and Tim who will

Be in the studio will be recapping the Super Bowl early on Monday morning then the three of us are doing our picks bets oneand done for the Genesis Invitational that should probably come out later on Monday evening or early on Tuesday morning depending on when we get all the

Editing done on it but we’re trying to push out the Super Bowl recap as quickly as possible so if you do want to see the show even before it’s airing in video version you can’t really do it for the audio version but I’ll have the secret

Link if it does get early in the Mayo media newsletter my full write up will be included in there as well and if I do get the listeners link early it will be in the newsletter too it’s completely free to join it’s down in the description or on substack

Docomo media all right Genesis Invitational the quick notes on this there’s currently 65 players in the field a few more could potentially get in depending on what happens in Phoenix but there is a cut tiger demanded at his tournament that there be a cut it’s not a big cut because there’s only 65

Players but it does get cut down to the top 50 end ties this course already had shared lineage in terms of winner and being a lefty playing to the advantage with Augustin Ash now it has like a similar size feel with exactly the same

Cut rules top 50 and ties go on no one within 10 shots of the lead so just if you’re playing like crap you’re going to get cut tiger is playing for the first time since this tournament a year ago it’s pretty exciting so golf goes into a

Lull now for a few weeks until we get to Bay Hill which ramps it back up a little bit then you have the PLAYERS Championship which is you know the quote unquote fifth major but it does really good ratings people are interested there’ll be a Millionaire Maker on DraftKings for The Players Championship

So at least the PGA Tour has a chance to get it right with this event because I call this four-week stretch probably the best four-week stretch of the season when you go to Tory Pine still a pretty good field although it wasn’t a signature event and I just really love

Watching Tory Pines and that tournament is always thrilling down to the wire for its conclusion Pebble Beach well I mean at Tory ponds we got pavon winning over a bunch of nobody so that was like all right it was still great to watch but it lacked the real star power at the top

Pebble Beach everyone was there it was a no cut event the first time that we had had a great Pebble Beach tournament in basically well I mean the US Open not included basically since like Phil tiger and I want to say it was Kevin it wasn’t kevu was it Charlie woo Charlie U

Whoever it was there was like a third guy in that group uh playing down to the wire at Pebble Beach that was a really fun one but that was like 12 years ago 13 years ago this was the best field for Pebble Beach in a really long time cut

The proam to 2 days and then of course Sunday and Monday get rained out and it’s only 54 holes and Windom Clark wins you’re like oh that kind of sucks Phoenix has been a lot of fun but we’ve been dealing with a frost delay in the mornings which pushed everything and

Then a rain delay which got people off the course for like 4 hours now they’re just constantly playing catchup although Saturday evening the Golf Channel was like we don’t even care if we show you the leaders what we’re going to do is just show you what’s going on at 16

Kevin kizner is there with an open mic and he’s just going to cook I actually really enjoyed it kid was great just giving people heat the entire time he was booing people that were missing the green it was an awful lot of fun so Phoenix is still going to be fine but

Genesis is really where the PGA tour right now needs to make its bones mainly because tiger is playing so think about any like the Genesis is going to be highly rated anyway everyone loves Riviera it’s a elevated event all of the best players outside of matchup p is not

Playing and disant and neither is Justin Rose they’re the only two like people that can play in this field that aren’t playing in this field but you just insert tiger into it and people are like oh Tiger’s playing first time in the year I like Tiger Woods let’s tune into

That so they can recoup and build up some momentum going into that Bay Hill players then into the Masters to reignite some of the good feelings because football will be over on Sunday I mean that’s probably not going to get rain delayed where I mean I guess the

Last time that these no that was Baltimore San Francisco that had the power outage not Kansas City San Francisco either way it’s going to football is going to conclude on Sunday evening and then we’re going to have Riv with tiger like there are very few

Things that golf can do to get into the a block on Sports Center or PTI or just in the National conversation like yeah a 21-year-old Amer wins at the AMX that’s great that’s buried like unless you’re really following golf yeah maybe you’ll see a scroll on the bottom of the ticker

Or maybe someone brings it up but if Tiger’s playing and especially if tiger can make the cut or just look decent then we start getting hey is Tiger back hey is Tiger going to P perform well at Augusta when’s he going to play in between these two tournaments is he

Going to play The Players Championship like tiger is Jordan tiger is Mike Tyson like there are so few athletes like that golf still has one he’s hanging on by a thread but this gets you back into the Consciousness the ratings will be high for this event it’s not going to go on

All day you can really focus in because there’s only 65 players that golf really does need to put its best foot forward here and it’s not like they haven’t been trying know weather screwed them each of the past two weeks hopefully I know there’s been a lot of rain in Los

Angeles hopefully that’s all out of its system at this point and they get a nice 4 days at the Riviera Country Club but one that is just the I remember watching this back on like Square TV the 4×3 aspect ratio and as soon as it switched

To HD I was too poor to own an HD tv for the longest time and then I got one like when they got cheaper and just the I believe it’s the 16th hole that like dead tree on the par 3 looks so good in high definition looks even better in 4k

At this point now I can afford a 4K TV and a 4K cable Buck you know cuz you people are so good to me you support you smash the like all that stuff allows me to afford a 4K TV but Rivier just looks gorgeous on TV hopefully the massive

Swings and elevation aren’t going to cause problems for Tiger Woods this week because that’s always been kind of the problem now with the Masters like with his foot problem and his back problem just the amount of up and down like when we played or when he played hero during

I mean I guess that was his return to the Albany course in Bahamas or berm or whatever the hell that is like that’s a completely flat course and we saw some signs of life from him there he wasn’t an abject failure at that tournament it

Only had 14 people in it this one only has 65 and he has been making the cut at this tournament which is really weird that this is his tournament I get that it’s in La it’s super convenient for him it’s quote unquote a HomeTown event for him although Tory Pine should really be

His event because he won that tournament so many times he’s never won at Riviera like this course always kind of flumed him so now at an elevated age coming off really non-competitive play in over a year multiple surgeries multiple injuries like the expectations cannot be

That high for Tiger but if he makes the cut that is great news they should almost like they should have almost made it a no cut event to ensure that tiger plays all four rounds but if he can squeak into the cut or does anything

Like piles up like two I mean the for the first hole at Rivier is like the easiest hole I think it’s actually the second easiest hole on the PGA tour behind number nine or 18 at wly one of those two but if you can get off to like

A hot start and do something it just it’ll be be on TV and it’ll get people fired up and people will tune in and that’s if you’re a fan of the PGA Tour or a fan in golf General like that’s what you want to see you want more

Excitement around it uh I’m probably not going to be I’m not I shouldn’t say I’m probably not doing a Mexico open show I’m going on vacation I’m not doing a Mexico open show I do have shows for you every single day of the week I got

Richard D he joined Jeff and I to talk about different broadcasting rights uh I actually appeared on Joe ion’s podcast he had a hole-in one today shout out Joe first ever hole in one dude’s a good golfer too it’s crazy it’s the I I’ve never had a hole in one that’s comment

Section for you have you ever had a legitimate hole in one on a course I’ve been playing golf for like 30 years never had a hole in one I’ve hit the pin a few times I celebrated a hole in one once and then I walked up and it was

Like two inches behind the cup I had you know it was going on the green and then it disappeared so I was like perfect here we go nice little like 154 ad no wasn’t wasn’t to be had but I hit the pin twice this year on part 3 so I just

Want to know if youve ever had a hole in one or not so we have a whole bunch of awesome shows the model Maniac Byron from Roto baller is joining me to talk about the most profitable way to bet on golf shocker it’s not outrights although if

The gala can hold on or Justin Thomas can stage your comeback who knows my point about the Mexico open though we have that future from the first week of the Season Tony feno 18 to1 and it looks like he is committed to playing that tournament I suppose we can jump over to

Fantasy National here in a second take a look at the season long planner that’s one of the new options at the top of brand new tool at Fantasy National you can see who’s actually committed to the Mexico open there’s not that many people committed to the Mexico open as of right

Now no one’s really like hey see in Mexico just like maybe I’ll go to Mexico we’ll see how it goes we have fow at 18 to1 he’s going to open at like six to1 or 7 to1 he’s like the only good player who’s going baa probably goes he’s

Probably second but Jake knap like this is a bomber course he played really well at Tor he’s playing really well this week in Phoenix we’ll see how he finishes up you know an upand Comer from the corn fairy tour I know a lot of people in our Twitter sphere all already

Really like Jake knap this seems like a perfect course for him bit slower greens go bombs away make a few putts so it’ll probably feno and Jake nap for me in terms of the Mexico betting board when I’m in Aruba sitting on a beach and the

Odds are released I’ll see if he’s in the field and I’ll see if the odds are you know better than like 20 to1 or something like that but anything like 30 to1 and Beyond I think you can take a shot at nap because we have that great

Number on Tony feno so enough of my ramblings off the top remember just a sub to the newsletter all the full write up there I’ll add the bets to it as we go along then I’ll have another one actually I don’t even know if I’m going

To do another one this week cuz I’m I’m Bolton on Tuesday hopefully this weather in Boston doesn’t absolutely screw my flights getting down to Panama so I can get to Aruba but you we’ll deal with it as it goes uh I don’t know I mean by the

Time I get to Panama and I’m drained I don’t really know if I want to write a newsletter about bets but I’ll just add them maybe to the one that I have up there so he can go back and reference the link on substack but he can get it

Sent right to you directly and if you’re watching this before the Super Bowl go to run thesims.com it’s free for the Super Bowl you can run any simulations you want you can just tail the prop sniper tail the projections make your DFS lineups whatever it is that you want

Run thes sims.com then we got Spring football coming along where that’s really a printing press when it comes to DFS but mainly prize picks of all places because most Sportsbook don’t actually put out props for UFL which was the XFL and usfl they’ve merged into one but by

The end of the season they were basically just taking the Run The Sims projections and making those the over runds on their sites but for like the first six weeks were they bad and our numbers were good at runthe sims.com so give it a whir for free you don’t have

To put in credit card or anything like that uh just do it all right let’s get to Riviera and usually when we do the visual overview of the course shout out to our friends at Golf Digest if you’re listening to the audio version yes there

Is a flyover of the course in the video version on YouTube but I want to start with number 10 not number one cuz the drivable number 10 is what I think is a prime example of a great short par 4 it’s been the second toughest par 4

Under 350 yards on the PGA tour over the last decade yet it has played under par six of the past seven seasons and it does present a legitimate conundrum for players on the T box is what I like about it so much most of which has to

Really do where the pin is at that day if you’re long and the pin is at the back it’s absolute death you’re going to make a bad number if the pin is at the back and you lay up then you have to contend with the fact that the green

Regulation percentage from inside 70 yard 75 yards on the 10th hole is no guarantee you think it would be for a pro since 2013 there have been 347 attempts from inside 75 yards on number 10 of these attempts just 62% of the players hit a green in regulation that’s 2111 of

3,47 since 2012 players only managed to salvage par 53% of the time when the whole location is on the back right side of the green essentially if you’re gonna miss when you’re going for the green Miss left and just hope that you don’t get scummed by one of the trees over

There even when Max hom the year that he went to the playoff and beat Tony feno got scummed on the tree he was still able to get it on the green and make his putt another Advantage for lefties and hard draw players one in three players

Who miss the right of the green make bogey or worse and of all the players in the field this week Cory Connors holds the best green in regulation percentage inside 75 yards of anyone so the toughest greens to hit inside of 75 yards on the PGA tour this is number one

Number 10 at Riviera 62% Innisbrook that’s a copper head course for the fpar number five 70% of the time TPC River Highlands for The Travelers hold number two 72% of the time then The Oaks Course TPC San Antonio uh number five on that course only 74 per of the time do people

Hit a green in regulation inside 75 yards that’s just nutty for a professional imagine us out there it would just be absolute death although I’m sure that the nonpr tees are a bit closer to the green uh than even like 200 340 yards or whatever it is all the

Way down that Hill I do remember Harold Varner being in the lead at this event once and he topped the ball off the tea very rarely the only two players I can ever remember topping the ball off the tea well I been watching they didn’t even show that one we were just

Eventually someone got the footage out to us was Verner on number 10 and Molinari in the proam one year in Pebble Beach just like oh my God he he did did what I do off the tea that’s insane another thing that I do I watched the

End of live shout out DJ Bryson really like [ __ ] all over himself coming down the stretch that was no fun for my bet but on the number 15 the par five at TPC Country Club ROM put it way right off the tea and then chipped himself back

Out from underneath of a tree it’s like all right he was tied for the lead at the time too at minus 10 there was like six guys it was a really cool finish at Liv and then he shanked it it was crazy I’ve never seen John ROM shank a shot before and unfortunately

For him unlike Riviera last year if you’re just going to blast it somewhere you know there wasn’t even Grand stands he could blast it into to get a free drop although his recovery shot was amazing he put it to like four feet and then of course he just missed the putt

That’s two times in two weeks that John ROM has blew it coming down the stretch with terrible play with like four holes to go two tournaments that he should have won on the live ter maybe this is why he wouldn’t got the guaranteed money no’s not a closer anymore can’t close um

But yeah it it was actually pretty fun to watch the end of live it played really tough it was cold and windy uh it got a little less windy towards the end of the day but the course itself played very difficult and I think I saw the

Stat they flashed it up on the screen the the team of uh Brooks gu CRA and Uline I think it is or maybe it was wolf because wolf was in it too they were combined like 10 under par their team I think it’s smash GC I have no idea who’s

On what team I just know the range goats have Bubba Watson on them that that’s the one that I know but those four guys were combined 10 underpar at Liv Vegas on Saturday the final round and the rest of the field was 70 overpar or something

Crazy like that I thought that was kind of crazy but enough of live let’s get back to Riviera and talk about why it’s a little bit like Augustin National because I mentioned it before there was a clear bias towards left-handers at Riviera and players who hit a draw now Dustin has

Played very well here over the years and he hits a fade so it’s not like you can’t overcome these things Mora has played really well here obviously he hits a fade doesn’t hit a draw so it’s not the most insane thing in the world uh you can overcome all of that but when

You’ve seen you know even Brian Herman a short hitter play really well here Mike we has won here twice Phil won here three times Bubba won here three times like guy lefties play well at Augusta I mean all three of those guys also won at Augusta National have won multiple times

At Riv and then so you have the crossover there and you can also say that because good players play in this event historically and good players play at Augusta it works in that method too so maybe there’s not that much to draw from it however there is significant leaderboard crossover between Riviera

And Quail Hollow historically too so it’s not like we’re saying oh Phil and Bubba are you know they’re so great they won at both these courses no no no no maxom has won at both JB Holmes has won at both and James Han has won at both of

The those courses I feel like that is evidence enough to say that whether it be shot shaping off the te I don’t know what it is but whatever it is it’s going to work out pretty well on paper it’s 7322 yards that doesn’t seem like it

Would be too long of a task CU it’s only a par 71 but that’s before you really look at the scorecard it turns out Riviera is actually quite daunting and there are elevation swings all over the course but you also have a micro power 4 that I already talked about number 10

It’s just 315 yards but all three of the power fives are under 600 yard it’s not like you have one really being bulky and being 649 yards and really upping the yardage you know it kind of goes the other way at Rivier it just leaves a lot

Of yardage to go around what remains are the seven power fours that measure over 450 yards all of which play over par you’d be hard pressed to find a course on the PGA tour featuring more approach shots from 175 yards and Beyond 46% of approaches this week come from that

Range 2/3 67% come from 150 plus so that’s not going to be a whole lot of fun short hitters with excellent irons can contend at Riviera for sure but the degree of difficulty is just a lot higher for them we’ve seen it happen we’ve seen Wes Bryan play well here Adam

Hadwin play well here in the past it’s a lot like Tory Pines like if you’re hitting the Fairway and you’re hitting your long irons well you’re chipping and putting well you can most definitely contend not being a bomber but being a bomber is really the path that you want

To take Fairways are tough to hit anyway only 55% and the rough is generally very short in spots which allows for the bombers as well just a glance at the past winners and you’re going to get a bit of an idea of who does well and like

Basically if you’re if you went to live you played this tournament really well over the years uh what else do we got going on here uh Strokes gained influence among the top five finishers over the past decade showed Strokes gained approach to be twice as impactful

As off the tea and around the green uh again one of the lowest driving accuracy courses Sports one of the one of the smaller greens and regulation rates at only 57% despite the greens being like 7,500 yards the PGA Tour average is 62% and 66% and Riviera has ranked inside

The top 10 toughest greens to hit in regulation 11 of the past 12 Seasons so short game will play a determining Factor but it’s a lot like Pebble Beach and weirdly I mean not weirdly maybe this this is why there is a crossover and Augusta National like you need to

Know these green complexes they’re very unique these greens are super tough so are the green complexes when it comes to chipping and I think there’s a reason that like Bubba Watson can have a wonky short game almost everywhere yet he can figure it out at Riviera Time After Time

The biggest difference between Pebble and Riviera like they both have poana greens but Riviera’s greens are huge and it puts an extra emphasis on lag putting again a lot like Augusta National knowing your speeds being able to two putt from 65 ft cuz there’s a ton of

Three putts at this course uh a week a a week after a course is you know has some of the easiest putting inside 10 feet and 20t and just putting in general in Phoenix Riviera historically ranks as the toughest course from putting inside of 5T along with Pebble Beach along with

Tory Pines all POA courses because of the bumps when I talked to Michael Kim that was one of the things that I talked to him about why is it that POA is like that and he had kind of said that you know there’s bumps in the green things

Aren’t going to turn for you in the right way and these greens are super quick as well but he’s like it’s a compounding effect a lot of the time like if you miss a three-footer guys that are historically good on POA just kind of learn to shake that off and move

On to the next hole where other guys that’s why Dustin was so good at this course dude’s like a robot he misses one he’s like ah forgot about that one let’s move on to the next toll but Michael said that one of the main reasons that

People putt so poorly from in close on POA is mainly because they just get rattled like they lose their confidence over these three-foot putts I maybe this is good for Scotty Sheffer he misses every three-foot putt anyways it’s nothing new to him obviously not all po greens are the same

The putting surfaces at Riviera tend to roll as some of the fastest on tour each year again like Quail Hollow and Augusta National and memorial for that matter uh the best Putters we’ll get to that in a little bit and after Pebble Beach you know the toughest greens to hit from

Inside 125 yards so it’s not just number 10 only 76% of players hit the green regulation from inside 125 yards narrow Fairways broadcasters love saying kakuya you’re going to hear it’s the same sort of rough that you see in like South Africa uh so expect the thick grass type

Of the rough mentioned over and over but like I had mentioned a little bit earlier it can be easy in some spots it’s going to be patchy when the ball gets in there you might have the best lie you might have the worst lie uh it’s

Just one of those things where you hope to get lucky you need your luck factor in the t- Woods video game cranked up to 110 and then maybe you can be good to go so let’s hop over to Fantasy national.com slmo to get yourself 20% off any of the

Membership levels weekly monthly annual whatever is annual is going to be the best deal 20% off so I would suggest taking that one because you’re going to want to dig in more on fantasy national uh we can go there’s a season long planner that I talked about before uh

The brand new tool you can see that when uh you have your players you can see the tournaments they’ve committed to uh Mexico doesn’t have a whole lot of commitments so far who we got we got Tony feno he’s committed to playing that’s great news he’s like the only one

Uh who is committed playing this week you can see and it will show the players who played in it last year too oh who do we have here oh R padera is playing I don’t know who that is but he’s going to be in the field in Mexico I assume he’s

A Mexican golfer yeah he’s that’s the only commitment that we’ve seen so far for that tournament let’s scroll back over and go to the tournament history at this course uh again a lot of live guys did very well John ROM won a year ago

With Max H Patrick Klay will Z who is in the field this week as a sponsors exemption morawa and seah the gala end up coming there’s the short hitter with good long irons who putted really well last year Matt coocher would be that guy so Rah at minus 17 was the winner walk

Neiman flamed everyone the year before that he also went to live he won at minus 19 with morawa and cam young Victor havin and Adam Scott all inside the top five then you see JT and Sheffer hom again is up there 2021 was the year maxom didn’t go to live beat Tony feneno

In a playoff Sam Burns came third that year that was the year burn should have won this tournament and he was leading at the turn and things went South very quickly for old Sam Burns I I don’t want to see him win in Phoenix um because

When we kind of take a look like Rah was third in Phoenix prior to his win last year nean was sixth at the farmers prior to his win in 2022 H was seventh at Pebble Beach in his tournament start before winning in 2021 Adam Scott had won the Australian PGA Championship in

2020 when he had won so each of the past four winners have a top 10 finish uh in their event previous to that you can see Scott be coocher h a lot of sticky course history too you see Klay pop up every single year so when we take a look

At who has played the best it’s h Klay Adam Scott morawa and Xander and you can see I mean even with a cut event like very few of these guys are ever getting cut Xander and feno are up there too Rory’s been progressively getting worse at this event over the years havins only

Played it three times has two top fives and no finish worse than 20th see sheffer’s never finish worse than 30th and four start zot torus has two top 20s and no finish worse than t26 so the same guys over and over if we kind of take a

Look at some of the players who had done well in debut appearances you have senson fers played it pretty well over the past three years day top 10 here uh the first time he had played it since 2020 when he had a case of the going

Bads going let see Tom Kim was T45 in his debut yeah it’s a very concentrated field you can see the players that have never played this before like this should be a ludvig course their ever was one and he does kind of fit that mold a firsttime player me can he win at

Riviera sure people have talked about how crappy his putting has been on PO which is just objectively not true when you look at the numbers he he gains over A6 Strokes per round on POA in his career it hasn’t been a lot but people just remember the misses from short

Distance at fers they don’t remember the makes he gained on Tory Pine South on POA he gained 1.1 Strokes in three rounds and a Ninth Place finish he gained 2.7 in three rounds and only I mean we don’t even have the numbers from spy glass we only have the numbers from

Pebble so that’s just at Pebble Beach we gained almost one and a half Strokes per round on the greens and barely did anything on approach you’re going to see a lot longer approaches here his driving is going to play like he is a bet uh you

Basically just bet him until he wins at this point H I’d probably go back to theala as well if he doesn’t win in Phoenix but that’s how it was done or here’s how it was done a year ago RAM on approach was just imagine being maxom and gaining 11.3 Strokes putting and not

Winning a tournament that is insane sanity when ROM gains almost 12 now this was in the midst of like the ROM run where it looked like he was going to be unbeatable cuz he won this and then he was the first round leader in Bay Hill

And people were like well just give him the green jacket and then he kind of imploded at API and he kind of sucked at the Players then like very few people bet him at the Masters and of course he wins the Masters after that’s the case

Last year on approach oh Holmes was bad uh ROM list Woodland the gala Rory Xander you see cooch was up there as well cooch didn’t even really put he chipped really well last year fower Jagger zalatoris cam young was up there off the te the best players Scotty Klay

Keith Keith was making a run last time I looked in Phoenix would be pretty decent for him he hit I had him in my actually when I came on the show last week uh I I didn’t know if peble was going to be played more or not but I was filming it

Midday on Saturday while Windam Clark was making his run and I was first place in the single entry $200 I ended up winning that with Keith Mitchell in that line cuz I had Windam right now I’m currently top five in the big five uh but I need Carson young to get you know

Back going right seah winning would be nice or Doug gim winning would be really nice for that one lineup that I’m talking about tambo’s currently winning like 25k and he has a fantasy Golf World Championship seat uh in in his grasp right now he’s on site the last time

That he went to one of these tournaments he went to the St Jude FedEx and it was the first time he ever bet zot Taurus and Hell zot Taurus won there’s where he was at see Keith Mitchell um yeah like he’s he doesn’t really put all that well

On PO but he is a bomber and that’s what we’re really going to lean into this week so that’s who really plays well uh at Riviera probably time to build out some stats this week so Riv stats what are we looking for here well you can always go into course breakdown and take

A look at you know all of the holes I’ve already talked about them all and I kind of broke everything down when the course overview was going on but you can see there’s the average shot distribution it’s super long those long par fours are going to kill you from time to time I’ll

Have year-over-year notes in the newsletter as well green regulation percentage low scrambling a little bit higher so that’s nice driving accuracy a little bit low three putts a little bit higher average driving distance a little bit lower green rock regulation proximity a little bit longer uh the cut

Line I guess that doesn’t really matter anymore it was plus two plus one plus one plus two plus one plus three plus one plus one it hasn’t been under par ever in basically my lifetime basically since 2003 that’s all the data goes back in the historic cutline and none of it

Was ever under part that probably changes this year I would guess with the top 50 but it’ll probably be right around even if I had to guess uh in terms of a draftking streak now this is very interesting because you you have number 18 which is the fourth hardest

Hole on the course as number 18 so instinctively you’re like oh I need to go one through 18 to have any sort of Showdown um kind of uh what if there’s an advantage to be had but here’s the thing number one is a power five and it’s the easiest hole on

The course it has a 6.3% there are three times as many Eagles made on number one as Bogies or Worse made on number one which should really tell you something so the birdie or better rate on number one is over 65% now number 17 is not an

Easy par five it plays slightly below par but the birdy rate is almost 30% but here’s where it becomes somewhat interesting cuz number nine super tough and so it was number eight so a 10% birdie rate at number eight an 11% at number nine 26% for number 10 and then

The easier power five the second easiest power five of the three at 35% but you if you start on 10 you you have this wrap round where you have a 30% birdier better rate on 17 a 65% on number one and while number 18 is super difficult

It has a 9% birdie rate that’s not all that dissimilar than number eight or number nine so when you actually compound everything together starting on number 10 is actually the play here I mean it’s a very marginal difference like just based on the percentages uh golfers going front to back have a

1.14% chance of building out the birdie streak at the turn based on 8910 9 1011 um and that way forward if you go from 1018 and start over on one um you have a 1.18% chance of doing it so I mean it’s not quite double but it’s like you 75

80% higher um that probably doesn’t mean anything to be perfectly honest you probably just take the better players and Showdown but I just thought that was interesting just doing the quick math on some of this stuff so let’s jump back over I’ve already built out my Riviera

Model so we can take a look at it right now and throw that in I have strokes game ball striking at 30% stroke that’s a combination of off the te and approach I have approach weighted again at 15 % so overweight on approach and that’s what I said earlier around the green 10%

Par 4 is 450 to 500 yards 10% driving distance 15% proximity 175 to 205% 200 plus 5% proximity 150 to 175 5% in Strokes game putting 5% is the model that I am rolling out this week so we can take a look at who ranks the best

Over the past 12 rounds and it is Xander chaffle May that’s that makes perfect sense I mean this is a very short term of the model sheffler morao kyama number five so there’s your first long shot or presumed long shot at least havin H Thomas Chris Kirk Keegan Bradley all the

Top 10 then you got Wendy C ludvig Scott Connor senson who played really well here last year Eric Cole don’t love him at a non- bombers course mroy list Hollywood hogi and Steven yab bombs who got himself into this tournament uh there’s also a guy at the bottom here

Where the hell was that guy is J oh Jake knpp is in this tournament I did not realize that I don’t think he is in maybe he’s not this is the first run of the field and they have they’re going to update it again so we’ll see on that

Front but here’s the new thing the the new tool that you can use on fantasy National and you can actually use it to activate within your model so underneath active model you go to I have it on Riviera right now but you just go to Rolling

Model and you can see in the rolling model you can choose whatever you want you can even choose your model to go in it so that’s what we’re going to do we’re going to keep that in but here’s the thing that I think is super fascinating you see how quickly that

Loaded too so a lot different than it used to be so you go to Rolling model under active model then under rolling you click what you want then you can edit the rolling model so you can so everything is weighted at 17% giving you know the last four the same as the last

100 so you can wait this any way you want and this will all be personal preference for you if that’s the way that you want it so if you want to say Hey you know last four isn’t all that great like was that that’s one round

Like yeah we want form that’s great but that should not be weighted all the same what we want to kind of do is stagger this to a point at least this is what I want to do so we’re going to make that the most then we’re going to go 24 and

50 so what I’m doing here and then we’ll put you know longer form inside this for the rolling model right now so the last four 7% last 8 12% last 12 16% 28 for last 24 I actually like last 12 a little bit more than that we can down last

Eight a little bit so past 24 being the highest uh maybe you know what maybe I’ll put past 12 up there because we really want to have recent forms we’ll wait we’ll wait basically 12 24 and past 50 rounds almost identically then we’ll drop past 100 rounds back to 14% so the

Shortest of the term we’re going very short and the longest term we’re waiting in between the short and the intermediate term where we’re I’m really trying to emphasize recent form with this and again with a fantasy National membership fantasy national.com Mayo you can go do all this stuff yourself and

You don’t need to use the you can actually go in and adjust the numbers if you really want to you 24 that’s what I have it as anyway so I’m going to update the model and here are the few different things you can do so based on my model

With the weightings that I have now the overall model ranks you don’t need to click on last 24 and last 12 in order to find out what the best mix of everything is Boom you can just go to your model rank but here’s the fun part of

Everything you can go to your mixed condition model and now you can add this model into the mixed condition model so the weighted rolling report model that you have built you can add into the mixed condition model which I am going to do we’re going to throw it in and

Once we go back and add a few more things here in a second we can wait that with the side that we want so it’s a far more efficient way to use the former rolling report it’s just called the rolling model now and you can do it for

Any one of the stats in this rolling model Sheffer is number one Sheffer shafley Rory havland ludvig Colin Tony Eric Cole Justin Thomas and Windam Clark wind Clark most definitely win this tournament by the way and then Klay so one thing that you notice from this one it’s all great

Course history guys right when we went and looked at all the course history who’s gained the most Strokes the past five years yada yada yada it’s all these guys Shaffer Xander Rory maxom the only guys that aren’t on this list are the guys that went to live because they’re

Not playing in this tournament hell even Adam Scott is number 14 in this modeling so the name that really interests me here again is ludvig he’s number five he is mixed in and Eric Cole really but I just prefer the skill set of ludvig here so ludig probably going to end up being

A bet for me Benny Anne is number 13 list is up there as well Keegan Connors there’s Hideki Kirk galot torus Steven Jagger number 20 like to see that kittama senson anthy Gala all up there as well Kevin Yu uh doing pretty well number 26 who’s like the worst in this

Sheamus power Taylor Moore who played well at this tournament last year Taylor Montgomery yeah the bad approach we’ll do that for you maybe you can put his way to success here Jason day Grio mugh Nick Dunlap Denny there’s tiger coming in at number 55 Fitz does not do very

Well in this modeling although he did play this tournament pretty well a year ago we’ll see here Genesis he know he did not actually he missed the cut here a year ago he was fifth in 2021 and 30th so he doesn’t have a lot of history at this course

When we take a look at it but that is what the rolling report will tell us you see like Fleetwood and Fowler Tom Kim uh Nick Hardy M Nick Hardy my guy making a run for me I’m so glad that I ended up going on the Nick Hardy train I went

Over the simulator results for we can go to the top here I went over this on the live show that I did on Wednesday this week and it still had Xander in it uh the last time that we ran it but for whatever reason where was it we went to win percentage

Obviously I don’t know the conclusion of this yet uh made the cut made the cut made the cut didn’t play made the cut made the cut made the cut made the cut no clue how Ben Griffin did shout out to Tom Kim for really rallying to make the

Cut Burger’s having a great week sunj ended up sneaking himself in but Davis Thompson just randomly being up here is like the SI the simulator having him as the without Xander the sixth favorite to win this tournament was just kind of like everyone just kind of like okay

Whatever I ended up playing him in DFS because of it but he got off to a real hot start in round three he was inside the top 10 the last time that I looked so hopefully he can hold on because I ended up playing him just because his

Name started popping up here drie as well drie was three over through nine holes in round one and just went on a tear on the back now so that’s what we’re looking at for the rolling report of the Riviera model now we can go back

And we can take a look at some course specific stats so I’m just going to load back in my Riviera model um we can actually go to putting for this one so let’s just go with putting and we’ll go with last 12 rounds we can actually increase the sample a little bit more

With that and we can take a look at the putting at Riviera specifically to see if there’s anyone that we can go at had mentioned it earlier the best players will go with average and underneath the brand new little bar we can type in Riv

We just want to take a look at Riviera CC we’ll apply the course filters uh and again like when you look down the lefthand scroll on fantasy national.com right now you can see the percentages of how this course plays like it generally plays firm there are times where it

Plays a bit softer or medium but the majority of the time it plays firm the majority of the time hitting Fairways is difficult the majority of the time the rough length is short but we’ve seen average and somewhat long in some spots green speed 100% fast per 71 100% of the

Time the course length has changed over the years sometimes they push the T box back that’s only 5% of the time sometimes they had moved them up that was probably like 10 years ago but 32% but 63% of the time it is playing between 7274 yards it’s calm 80% of the time in

Terms of the wind it’s been windy AF over 17 milph 4% of the time of rounds that have been weighted so far but anyway we’re rolling back we see we have Riviera highlight past 24 rounds highlighted and putting highlighted so let’s just take a look at

The average of guys that putt well here so only two rounds for Montgomery four for senson they’re the leaders per round Denny in 13 Rounds has putted very well kittama in his two rounds so guys with a large sample uh Ryder and H are both up

There Wendy Wendy C at 13 Rounds gaining uh almost three qus of a stroke per round on the green Patrick Rogers Sam Burns I really like Sam Burns this week uh again I just really so we got ludvig ludvig Sam Burns trying to find some other guys we can throw into this mix

Benan and kittama actually raided out pretty well from what we’ve been seeing so far they’ve been common names Harris English is having a pretty good run right now in Phoenix he has puted very well on these surfaces over time so it was coocher cam young in eight rounds cam young

Was I think that was the nean year that he played really well too and just couldn’t get the job done Adam Scott putts really well here so let’s try to find the guys that do not putt well at Riviera benan big shocker fortunately that’s only in four rounds Woodland

Keegan Connor spawn Fowler Luke list Nick Hardy Tom Kim in only four rounds that’s Nick Hardy in two rounds so I’m not too concerned about that but Glover and Fowler is 24 rounds Keegan is 24 rounds Connor is 11 rounds a lot of rounds Hideki sucks at putting at this

Course so does Grio so does tiger so does day uh they’re all just losing almost a half stroke per round on the green guys with a pretty big sample at that as well three put avoidance who does the best well Nick Hardy actually does despite losing so it’s been the

Short putts actually it’s been this middle range here 15 10 to 15 feet 15 to 20 feet it really killed Nick hardi but his three- put avoidance was very good as was Kitty young man Windam Clark can he win this he does he only wins majors

In signature event so why not for Windam Clark good at three putt avoidance uh Todd Burns again someone who’s also very good at three putt avoidance on this course you can see per round so the other thing that we’re going to just briefly take a look at when it comes to

Putting we’re going to Spike percentage and Spike percentage you can use it for any of the stats it’s best for The Strokes gain categories and generally I just like it for putting so I’m going to set the spike percentage at two so what this means is the percentage of time

That players gain two or more Strokes putting in a round over the past 24 just to see the guys that can go super deep and have had super hot putting rounds or you can kind of swing it so these are all the guys that have yet played in

This tournament uh then we got the zeros so who are we at here tayor Montgomery so in two rounds he has gained over two strokes putting in one of those rounds Denny half his rounds in 13 Rounds he’s gaining over so per round 1.12 total of 14.6 but those individual rounds that’s

How well he’s doing SMY in his six rounds he’s gained over two strokes putting twice in six rounds Harmon Adam Scott Seb straa all at 29% uh senson you know one of his four rounds have been two or over sunj 25% in 13 Rounds Camy young two of eight

Patrick Rogers 25% of 24 rounds uh ditto for hom and Henley is down at 20% So 20% for Henley Thomas Burns and Sam Ryder and morawa SEIU up there as well in the spike putting percentage now you can kind of play this either way you can say

Hey I know that these guys can go low because if they can get anything to match with it we know that they can go low on the greens or you can say hey these guys especially if they’re like middling and not great results like they only have middling results because they

Had these rounds where they gained three Strokes putting and that’s how they made a cut you can spin it any way that you want it’s whatever you believe but the one thing that I am going to throw in here so past 24 rounds we’re going to throw in Strokes game putting into this

Into our model and we’re also going to throw in uh so we’re going to click back out and add to MCM we’re also going to throw at Riviera itself three putt avoidance uh so putting at the course three putt avoidance at this particular course and we can flop back around a

Little bit and go to Strokes gained my Strokes gain model that goes in and we can just see how people have done at this course uh average Strokes gain total know Cameron young has been the best Cameron Young on a per round basis and like eight rounds four rounds like whatever Cameron young

Senson havin Klay homo morawa anyone in particular Windam Clark is up there as well the gala tiger is actually up there more than a stroke per Fitzpatrick more than a stroke per against the field we’ll see who the worst guys are Hardy spawn great Baden SMY Connors not a lot

Of huge Hitters from down that way kittama has not been good despite the stats actually liking him a little bit uh you can throw that into the MCM if you want but I am not going to do that what I’m going to do is actually add the

Courses that we looked at we’re going to add Augusta Country Club and apply those course filters so as you can see at the top we have multiples now so we have Augusta National and Riviera and we’re going to throw Quail Hollow into that mix if I can spell it right so we’re

Going to throw in both of these that’s the old one and the new one uh pre-renovation of the greens post renovation of the greens just because we have a lot of winners from both of those subset so now we have four in so we can

Go to Strokes gain total and see who the best player at all of those courses are now we don’t have strokes gain data from the Masters only Quail Hollow in Riviera so off the tea approach around the green and putting will only be from those two courses not Augusta National Strokes

Gain total however will be from all of those courses you can get a sense of that when you click on the past rounds you can see the Masters that’s all blacked out but The Strokes gain total is going to be there over the past 24 rounds you can go player by player and

Check that out so we can go to average per round Strokes gain total kyama is the worst Sheffer is the best so again no new names have really cropped up between these courses I’m shocked hom is not up where the hell is hom at is it because he’s bad at the Masters he’s

Still up like gaining 75 Strokes per round total but it’s just way behind everyone else which kind of funny uh to think about in that sense so we can just get let’s get rid of Augusta and we’ll apply the filters so let’s do Quail Hollow and Riviera for

This and you know you can throw in whatever you want we can this is basically how you judge course history and I’m adding in a few different courses so we’ll add course history and we’ll throw Strokes gain total into that mix as well so this is what we’ve built

Out so far for a mix condition model right now we have the Riviera rolling report for the model in real time so it waits everything from four rounds to the past 100 rounds with the waiting that I ended up going through uh which you can adjust any way that you want putting of

The last 24 rounds at Riviera three putt avoidance at Riviera over the past 24 rounds Strokes gain total from Quail Hollow and Riviera uh over the past 24 rounds so those are the four that we have in So Far So now let’s go back and we’re going to clear everything in terms

Of the courses that we have selected so now we’re back at all courses uh and you can throw in recent form if you want to although that’s kind of taken a little bit uh from what we’ve seen and we’ll go let’s just go past 12 rounds overall and

We’ll just throw Strokes gain total overall we’ll call this recent form basically into the mixed condition model as well the other things that we do want to throw in to the mixed condition model maybe we can actually click on some of these conditions hitting Fairways is difficult okay so let’s click that one

On over 50% of the time rough length uh short we’re going to throw that in um green speeds fast we’re going to throw that one in power 71 that doesn’t really make that big of a difference uh I do think that the course actually plays longer than the score sheet than the

Scorecard says so it’s probably more like an over 7,400 yard course honestly uh especially for the holes that are the most difficult so that’s realistically what we have going on now there’s not a lot of courses that actually fit the criteria of what we have so maybe we’ve

Added too many in so let’s take out difficult to hit Fair ways to see if that opens up some more rounds for us not a ton because maybe it’s the fast greens that are causing us the problems there just not a lot of courses uh that fit

This particular criteria of you can see it at the top here fast greens over 7,400 yards rough length short so let’s just get rid of fast greens um and we’ll throw that out and one thing that I do want to add in to the model because it’s not in here

Right now uh I just want to add in I probably need to go back in and start a new model don’t I of course I do um it’s this Strokes gain model that I was looking for there we go because it just had more in it had ball

Striking and short game in it as well just because I want to see those for this particular course so zero rounds for ludvig he’s just given a certain weight on those uh spe Windam Clark Xander SMY actually plays well in these particular settings matama zalot torus

Hoard so I don’t really love um exactly what this is uh in terms of that particular length so now we can throw in some other things as well what we can do is let’s say let’s go to driving distance let’s go to Fairways and greens I believe that’s where it’s underneath

Uh yeah driving distance so we’re going to throw in I don’t want past 12 this is one where we want a super long sample just so we make sure that it’s not because they played capala that all of a sudden their driving distance is off the

Charts good so we’re going to throw in add to mix condition model we’re going to throw in driving distance and I have the wrong wrong one pulled up there let’s uh let’s refresh the page make sure we can get back to where we need to go on this front if anything

Ever happens I have Riviera pinned up at the top but um if anything ever happens like that just refresh the page and you’ll be good to go sometimes there’s so much data going on that it can be somewhat confusing from time to time so add to mix condition model we want

Driving distance and we’re going to throw that in so let’s just run what we have going on so let’s come up with some waiting for this so Riviera rolling model is probably the one that we want to go with the most but we can juxtapose

That with our model as well when we take a look at it Strokes game putting at the course and three put of voidance at the course let’s make that about the same uh Strokes gain total multiple courses so that a course history plus we’ll wait that just a little bit above putting

Right around the rolling report the last 12 recent form overall we’ll Jack that up and we’ll jack up driving distance that leaves us with 20% for the rolling model 10% each on three putt avoidance and putting from Riviera by itself Strokes gain total multiple courses 15% last 12 rounds overall recent form 26%

And driving distance last 75 rounds 20% we’ll drop that back down a little bit and it gives a bit more extra weight to everything else and now we can update the mix condition model and I’m going to go back to past 24 rounds now and I’m

Going to load back in our Riviera model just so we can get a sense to see if there’s any discrepancies between the mixan Edition model ranking that we have and the model rank over the past 24 rounds anyway so Xander’s the best in the mixed condition model third in the

Model rank the biggest difference here is Windam Clark is awesome in the mixed condition model and 34th in the model overall so that’s somewhat interesting Justin Thomas fifth in the mixed condition 20th Scott third and 15th H second and 10 we’re just looking at this course now it did give weight to course

History so guys that have played well here in the past are obviously going to be a little bit higher it dislikes Scotty Sheffer it really elevates Sam Burns good there’s my my reason to bet on Sam Burns list drops down so does Eric Cole in these specific conditions

And a lot of that has to do with driving distance it gives a bump up weirdly to JT Poston despite missing the cut in Phoenix which probably isn’t included obviously it’s not included in this but the driving distance very low for him which is somewhat surprising here over

The past 24 rounds he’s 56th in this field of 71 players currently in it where’s Jake knp where’s my guy the Napster oh Shawn Parker Napster now we’re going somewhere he is fourth in driving distance and eighth around the green he should actually be pretty good

At Riviera too I’m not going to bet him to win but here we are hoard is someone he could probably go to as well he is seventh in driving distance over the span and rates out he’s a big jumper as well he’s 41st in the model rank 17th in

The mixed condition model and I believe that’s with no course history to speak of at Riviera let’s see Genesis he played the Scottish open twice game Sixth and misstic cut has never played at this course in this tournament who else sees a big lead uh Seb straa sees a

Big leap Jason da sees a big leap big followers list Eric Cole theala theala drops to 20 from 11 so it’s not that steep is there anyone who was very high here’s a big dropper Hideki from 19th to 51st that’s probably with a terrible putting that he has at the riv same as

Woodland Woodland goes from 12th to 53rd in that sense Jagger goes from 18th to 57th and the biggest follower of anyone is the glove Lucas Clover 16th to 66th so now now let’s guess the odds for the Genesis Invitational once again 65 player field it’s cut down to the top 50

In ties I do not know the conclusion of Phoenix so that’s obviously going to affect the odds of a lot of players if Scotty ends up winning his numb is going to be shorter if he loses or goes Way backwards on Sunday then I mean it’s not

Going to kill his number but instead of like an eight it could be a nine and then Rory is the favorite so right now I have Scotty and Rory as the co-favorites of the event at Riviera both both 8 to1 I have Victor havland as the clear

Number three at 12 to1 in the betting Market Klay and Xander both coming in at 14 to1 I do think that recent form notoriety and mainly course history is really going to play a Major Impact at least on the opening odds that we see at Riviera this week in a limited field at

The same time we usually get a lot of low numbers maybe I’m wishcasting with some of these but I have H at 16 to one he did win this tournament three years ago and always generally play play well in California col morawa and ludvig oel

Both at 20 to1 I would bet that ludig number if it ends up at 20 to1 I have Thomas at 22 uh again if he ends up winning in Phoenix it’ll be like 16 to1 he’s always played Riv really well speed wyc and cam young all at 28 to1 pretty

Good number on Windam Clark Sam Burns I have on an island at 35 to one I have sunjay and feno both at 40 to1 that might be too high on Tony feno Fitz I have at by himself at 45 Fleetwood at 50 Adam Scott at 55 and let’s take a shot

In the dark here Tiger Woods and that’s another thing that I want to hear from you either on Twitter below the video in the comment section on the Spotify questionnaire for the episode what are tiger woods’ opening odds going to be at Riviera I’m going to guess 125 to one

All right you’ve done the walkthrough at least I’ve done the walkthrough and you can do your own walkthrough inste all of your own waiting and modelings and if you saw something that hey Pat didn’t see that but I saw it you need to be on fantasy national.com fantasy

National.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off all right that will do it on the pat Mayo experience I’ll return with Jeff and cus for a Super Bowl recap on Monday later on on Monday me Jeff and cus talking about this tournament in the betting odds making our bets Jeff and I

Will make our bets cust ain’t petting but we’ll make our oneand duns for everything as well and and I should have the listeners League by that point my write up will be free in the newsletter and you’ll probably get early access to the betting show as well I got a ton of

Really cool content coming for you over the course of the next two weeks so please stay tuned rate and review share the shows around sub to the Channel smash the like comment when you can all that stuff pushes our show even higher on the charts lets more people see it

And I am forever grateful for that me and my 4K TV that’s what I’ve earned from doing this show all right good luck at Riviera I’ll see you next time experience experience