2024 WM Phoenix Open Preview

In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Steve Schirmer previews the 2024 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Steve pulls up the Google Earth imagery to take you on a tour of TPC Scottsdale and the types of holes each player will face. Then he previews what types of players and skillsets he favors for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open using the tools available on DataGolf.

Make sure to rate, review and subscribe to the Golf Gambling Podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Also make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel for free weekly content!

This episode of the golf gaming podcast and the sports gaming podcast network is brought to you by Hall of Fame bets the sports betting research platform for parlays player props and gamelines download the Hall of Fame bets app or visit H bets.com use code s gpn to get

50% off your first month start making smarter bets today we’re also brought you by cut cut is the peer-to-peer social betting platform that’s us-based and available in 40 States head to cut.com that’s k.com use promo code sgn for a 10% deposit bonus and we’re also brought to you by the sports gaming

Podcast patreon the guys just drop their bonus behind the scenes episode of sha green winning $200,000 in DraftKings plus this week’s PRI uh pick and prize is free uh $250 for $250 super Square uh go to sportsg podcast.com patreon to join today all right Deens uh good morning

How are you I hope you have a nice uh cup of coffee for this uh for me at least chilly uh Sunday morning for you maybe not so much but uh it’s Steve Shermer here with the Waste Management Phoenix Open a preview this year uh you know we got a

Couple tournaments going on right now I like I predicted I think before the tournament I don’t think we’re going to see any PG work golf today we’re gonna get 65 70 m per hour winds a lot of rain they’re going to push into Monday but I

Also saw a scenario where if the course is deemed unplayable on Monday and they can’t get it ready before you know half the field actually completes the round on Monday they are going to actually revert back to the 54 hole leaderboard which I am sure is going to make

Everyone very happy if you had an outright on obber or JT or de Tre and you know maybe they take the lead on Monday but half the field doesn’t finish they’re going to just scrap the round entirely and declare Windam Clark the winner so I’m sure that’s going to go

Awesome on golf gambling Twitter uh I’m glad that uh I will be on the sidelines for that but hey let’s rub with the green there is what it is you also got the live event going on right now that actually will play I mean I think

They’re going to catch a break the fact that you know you got a decent leaderboard Neiman is leading I bet him uh hopefully he hangs on uh you got Rah chasing him you got DJ kind of up there in the mix I mean they’re pretty far

Back but listen the the the stage is clear for them so if you want to tune in to that you go to CW you can see them play MOBA yesterday actually played kind of entertaining it was pretty windy uh played a little difficult and you know

It was difficult kind of for me at least watching it yesterday um you know I was trying to go back and forth obviously I got bets on both but you know I mean you had Pebble Beach that you know okay leaderboard not a ton of energy I think

For me the uh the curtains been pulled behind uh with Oz and I’ve seen kind of what this tournament is now what this tour is and it’s not quite as meaningful what it was excuse me but then you also have Liv which has not a lot of energy but uh I want to

Talk about this more with Jeff fineberg I think on Tuesday he’s you know I think uh maybe a meable audience to his take but there’s been some push back about why Li is starting to go after this the Signature Events and I think it I finally understood why yesterday that

They’re on is because I think watching golf you know for the US five% of people who want to devote time to the weekend you plan out your schedule you get a mindset of you’re going to watch golf and I think a lot of people the Casual

Is kind of getting that mindset too what the problem with Liv was you know obviously no one’s watching you can debate about the fact whether it’s meaningful or not I’m kind of on the side if it’s not meaningful but if you’re not actually getting an audience

Who has a mindset of I’m going to watch golf this week well of course they’re not going to watch it doesn’t matter at that point they’re not even going to watch the John Deere they’re just not checked in at that point but I mean if no one was watching on the off weeks

Anyways at least you have a you know a larger audience that is maybe amenable to watching golf on a weekend you can just flip back and forth maybe they can get lucky with a really good leaderboard up the top and maybe a dud leaderboard like what happened to Farmers Insurance

Open last week you know I mean it’s a new strategy for them to try and get people get some eyeballs we’ll see if it works we’ll see what the ratings hold I don’t expect them to actually draw measurable neon ra in but you know it’s

It’s not great for golf fans right now I you know I I wish I I was watching both and just wishing they both we’re all just playing under one R but that is those tournaments if you are sweating bets right now good luck with you we are

Moving on to uh the WM Phoenix Open This Is The People’s open this is the only event uh on the PJ tour that can actually generate organic mainstream buzz on its own uh you know they try and do that with the PLAYERS Championship I don’t think it’s all that’s successful

But this one this is the one that makes Sports Center this is the one that where they get all different Twitter streams where I think points bet did a uh a stream on its own like a gambling one on its own uh I know there’s other ones

That are going to have different variety of guests doing play by play this is one they pull up all the stops for and there’s a good reason for it obviously this is Super Bowl weekend this is degenerate weekend this is debauchery weekend you know eat whatever you want

Go whatever you want bet on what whatever you want and I think this tournament has leaned into the the fan aspect great with this obviously you have the 16th green and you know the atmosphere behind that we’ll go over that in a little bit but you know I mean

This is a fun event unfortunately it’s no not a signature event anymore last year at the alv S so everybody was there this was I think the most fun Tournament of the Year cons and it was I think the high point of the Signature Events all year long where you had Scottdale you

Had the best field in golf nothing opposing to it lead up Super Bowl good tournament too uh help that Scotty shuffler but um this year it doesn’t have that it’s sandwiched between two Signature Events obviously everybody’s going to be go playing at Pebble Beach at least till Monday uh and then you got

Riviera next week so the field took a ding but like I mentioned I don’t think this tournament needs signature status it has its own identity it has its own brand people are going to tune in anyways you know you’re going to be blocking off your day in Super Bowl

Sunday cooking meals drinking beer you’re going to throw on golf uh it’s G to be a good time now you got another Li event next week going opposed to it we’ll see how they do with that but you know the field took a big of a ding this

Week but it’s still pretty good there’s a couple good players highlighting the field this week is two-time defending Champion Scotty sheffler uh Scotty’s he had if you were watching yesterday he had kind of a weird day I remember at Oak Hill here for the PGA he was leading

H for 54 holes and it started to rain a lot and he just was playing like garbage all day and it was because he couldn’t get footing on the T box his feet kept slipping and I noticed the same thing happened in yesterday like right from the jump his

Feet were slipping obviously he slides his feet you know he has a little different uh you know un unorthodox swing but like he’s got to fix that Footwear issue because he was absolutely all over the map with the driver yesterday which is uncharacteristic for him because he’s one of the best drivers

In the PJ tour so I don’t know what happened um you know hopefully that’s not an issue going forward for him but this is a great Golf Course for him obviously the his putting woses have been well chronicled but on these types of surfaces that we’ll get into uh in a

Little bit especially on you know this particular surface too he’s put very well here and that’s why he’s the two-time defending Champion there’s also another reason why I want to go uh over why he’s successful here and why I think there’s a certain type that’s successful

Here we’ll go over when we go when we di into Google Earth but uh we also have Victor havin in the field next week at Phoenix he actually hasn’t been all that good here for whatever reason I I don’t particularly see a reason why he wouldn’t be good here it’s a very driver

Heavy Golf Course is a golf course that can definitely penalize you if you’re spurring it all over place because the numerous penalty areas and trouble you can get into this should be a good golf course for him for whatever reason he has not been very good here I don’t know

Particularly why um and we’ll get into the Google Earth reasons like his with his shot shape he should be much better here you got Xander who’s probably uh should have won a couple of these events I know I think I had a bet on him back

In 2020 the year Webb Simpson won uh it was sent up perfect for Xander he was a couple back he was chasing I liked in that position he was terrible Sunday but he’s always been very good here for obvious reasons that we’ll go for and then you also have Justin Thomas who’s

Playing very well this week I got bet on him um for I think a positional that I’ve added a couple H days ago we’ll be sweating that for Pebble Beach Max hom who’s been very disappointing at Pebble be so far let’s see if we can bounce

Back here Jordan Speed Sun JM Sam burns are playing really good golf lately uh JT post and Windham Clark it kind of falls off after that but top of the board there a lot of really good names a lot of names are going to hold the attention of the mainstream viewer a lot

Of names that maybe we’ll get in the mix and you know create Comon entertainment Sunday I know the executives of NBC this year because CBS has a Super Bowl which is probably gonna be a downgrade in your coverage but uh they’re definitely hoping that a couple of those guys are

In the mix um otherwise you’ll get a farmers uh situation where uh ratings end being down 40% year-over-year because the final round no one really cares but we’ll see what happens why don’t we take our first break and then we will dive into Google Earth I’ll show

You uh TBC Scottdale I’ll show you what’s good about it I’ll show you what’s not good about it I’ll describe a little more about why I think looking hold to hold favors a certain um type of shot shape and we’ll go from there all right

We are brought to you by the SGP patreon so the guys just dropped this month’s bonus episode behind the scenes breakdown of Sean’s $200,000 win where he will talk about how great he is that he had Tariq Cohen in his lineup uh and how I think uh I can’t remember what the

Colts quarterback name was but who whatever defensive special teams uh Team he picked that week I think they had like three defensive touchdowns so that was quite a huge win a very Hallmark moment for the podcast and if you want to listen to uh the blowby blow breakdown of exactly how Shawn won

$200,000 that week uh go to patreon they’re also running their patreon picks uh picking prize it’s a free uh $250 Square for anyone who’s in the patreon plus you have access to all the pick sheets and exclusive Channel on Discord so head over to sports podcast.com

Patreon and sign up today and we’re also brought you by Underdog fantasy under fantasy has a way to play alongside your favorite fantasy players all season long you got NFL NBA NHL college basketball college football wins in season and golf as well there’s a lot of golf options

They actually expanded the menu this week uh for different types of uh of things you can uh make picks for uh you know up until this point I’ve been uh picking a lot of thing a lot of uh Fable scoring uh lines that they have probably

Tomorrow when I go in and do my Underdog lineup I’m probably going to pick uh highers on stuff higher round scores lower on birdies higher on Bogies um that’s probably the direction you want to go to uh for the final round of 18d publ Le program when you use Underdog so

Watch along make your picks and maybe make a little cash over an Underdog’s mobile app or website RR fantasy.com when you sign up with a promo code golf SGP that’s our own personal uh promo code that you can use to go play golf on under underdog Underdog will double your

First deposit up to $100 it’s Underdog fantasy promo code golf s gpn uh Underdog fantasy promo code golf s gpn all right let’s pull up Google Earth here let’s uh zoom out here so this is I’m sorry I have a throg my throat I got to take a drink here

Okay sorry maybe I can have Cam uh edit this and post but but this is TPC Scottdale this is a Tom Weiss coff design he designed this with Jay Morris in 1986 excuse me it underwent a renovation in 2014 it kind of toughened it up um but you know this is definitely

One of the more popular golf courses on pg2 where it’s definitely one of the more popular golf courses that uh people play just in general I think there’s 43,000 rounds a year here at TBC Scottsdale there’s actually another Golf Course across the the way too this is

The other golf course I think there’s like 60,000 rounds here but um you know this is the canvas they’re GNA be working with this week and you know for the most part the TBC Scot the front nine very forgettable um you know but there is a couple things I

Want to point out with Scottdale so opening uh hole here what I noticed going over the holes because I I’m doing more of a visual aspect I want to show you more of the golf course with these previews this year is that I noticed that there definitely seems to be a fade

Bias with t- shots and approach shots based on you know where hazards are where you want to start the ball and fade it back and also how the greens are kind of angled in Regin the Fairway and the first hole is definitely a good example of that so you know right off

The T here yeah bunker about 292 all the way out here let me zoom in and the optimal uh t- shot is be start the ball right the bunker fade it back into the middle of the Fairway and then once you do that if you’re in the Fairway you got

About you know a short iron hand this green promotes a fade for most pin placements you know it’s angled from about you know uh left to right here angled a little bit away from the Fairway here most pin positions can be accessed with a fade you know that’s

Pretty good for a guy who likes to have that type of a shot shape go over to number two here not necessarily as much off the te here but again with how the green is angle we’ll Zoom here again this is a green that promotes a left to

Right shot with your iron so if you’re comfortable hitting those types of shots this green right here is perfect start it on the left side peel it back into you know especially with these back right pin locations here that can work here and then the power five3 once

Again favors of fade start the ball out at this bunker right over here peel it back to the Fairway and then this green is set out you know uh past a little like like a waist area here it’s kind of sitting on its own but a nice left to

Right shot with with your Fairway metal into this green here will work perfectly now unfortunately with these Fairway Metals a lot of these Pros have trouble turning uh hitting it left or right but if you are somebody that very comfortable doing that that works for

You but overall though you know I mean I think there’s a reason why you don’t really know much about um Scott sale from the front nine I mean this is one of the more mainstream golf courses and everyone knows the back nine for obvious Reon it gets you but front nine

Relatively I think forgettable I mean you just have kind of an ordinary par three 183 yards here for their four everything is very right out in front of the player um on most of the um opening nine here you know everything’s pretty dead straight right in front of you just

Avoid the bunker maybe start that way work it back not a ton of I would say interesting holes on the front end here you know here’s the six screen you got a lot of bunkers you got to contend with but nothing too spectacular but the back

Nine is definitely and I want to just get to that the back nine is definitely um why this golf course is I wouldn’t call it architecturally great if you’re into that but it creates a lot of drama and there’s a lot of opportunities on the back nine to make your round or

Break your round and it kind of starts off right here on the on the first nine here so this is a sharp this is the 10th hole a sharp dog leg left or dog like right hole almost 90° you see a lot of guys try and carry the bunker here and

If they do that they can be very successful you know they shove basically a wedge in but you know you also see some guys maybe they um you know pull it a little bit into the rough here it sets up a lot longer approach out into the

Green uh these greens can play kind of firm too these bunkers are also very small here so you know especially when the pin is over on the right side right here trying to get up and if you land this bunker here it’s going to be tough

To get up and down uh the 11 hole though this is I think if you are somebody who likes to watch car crashes maybe you’re a Nascar fan loves Talladega loves Daytona this hole is for you this Fairway is borderline unfair especially when it’s playing very firm all so if

You have a t-shot that starts you know middle to left off the off the T here it’s probably bouncing in the water here because of how firm the fairways are the Fairway kind of slopes a little bit towards the water here and that’s why you see guys is hilariously bail

Outright because if you get the ball going you know once it hits the ground because it’s so firm at this golf course sometimes if there’s not a lot of rain balls are just going to go right into the water so I think if you were GNA

Play this golf course if you’re a pro I would definitely want to start off on the front nine it’s definitely more benign because first three hole and I’ll get to the next hole first three holes you can really put yourself behind the eightball either if you hit a bad drive

On 10 you don’t carry the corner there you maybe push it way left you hit it in the water on 11 and then you know even on the approach sh too you can see guys hit in the water there and then number 12 if you go deep here or you you maybe

You know wipe it a little right go a little deep that’s also going to find water as well and I think the there’s not a lot of rough here if you go long it’s going to run to the water you can get off to a really horrible horrible

Start um at this golf course with the first three holes so if you’re somebody who’s maybe a slow starter don’t draw uh a tea time that has um you know where you start in the back let’s go over to the 15th so this is where the the round

Really ramps up and everybody I think knows his closing stress because there’s been a lot of really dramatic moments in in this tournament with these first you know next couple holes now the 15th uh hole here you got an island green par five you got water all the way down the

Left again you see guys just kind of hilariously bail out to the right here um but for the most part you know we’ll top over the the length of rough it’s not all that penals all that thick guys can generally get it to the green into unless they hit just a really bad

Approach shot most guys kind of try and um just bail out in this bunker here it’s relatively easy Up and Down based on where the pin is but again there’s a lot of water here a lot of opportunities for guys to really screw up I remember I think in

2020 web Simpson was neck and neck with Tony fenal who I bet that year and he hit it in the water on 15 it looked like he was done and then web Simpson ended up biring 16 17 18 to force a playoff and he end up winning a playoff and I

Was very sad leading up into the Super Bowl but you know you also get you know you start hearing the buzz of the crowd as well well with the 16th um you know it’s you start feeling it a little bit if you’re in contention you know that

The 16th has a lot of pressure behind it you know you have to Birdie the par fives as well you have to score on these there’s a lot of pressure to get a birdie here before you go to the closing stretch then you get to the 16th

Everyone knows it this the uh the Google Earth Earth here though really doesn’t do it justice it shows you what this looks like uh 352 days of the year when there’s no GR stands around it it’s a very ordinary two- tiered green uh par three that’s about 150 yards you know

You can actually move with the T box it’ be about a wedge but maybe I can go back in time where you where we see the stands here um where is it well there they’re constructing it here we go kind of grainy this is why this hole is great

It’s not the greatest part three as some people tried to argue with me in golf but everyone knows it and listen I’m somebody who doesn’t really love a lot of crowd noise I think there’s a lot of um just you know look at me look at me

Stuff with people just who shout things but this is Iconic this whole where you have guys just going wild you know party atmosphere it’s nice to have it once in a while this is nice um you know it’s it’s and it it tend to be very nerve-wracking you’ve seen guy shank it

Off of uh the grand stands over on the right here I think Ian polter famously did that here it’s it’s good but for me personally if I was ever going to go to this tournament I probably would kind out on the 17th here let’s get rid of uh

This grany video here this is a hole that I think is very intriguing it is the driveable par for 17th and I can think of a lot of pivotal moments at this tournament tournament where the leaderboard flipped on this hole mostly because of car crashes but I

Remember I think mid maybe 2015 2016 Ricky Fowler had a lead he end up pulling I think three wood uh down the stretch here ends up hitting the down soap here and runs all the way through the green into the water and he ends up I think uh

Bogi and the hole ends up in a playoff with Hideki matama ends up putting it again in the water and playoff ends up losing 2019 the year that Ricky actually ended up winning uh he probably should have choked it the way but he ended up winning um he uh Brandon Grace was neck

And neck with him and he end up Duck hooking it into the water over here uh the year Brooks kep go one 2021 he hit a shot down to this collection area over here ends up getting uh shipping in for birdie to steal that tournament so you

Know and then a couple years ago C tagala nursing a I think either a tie for the lead or a lead ends up Duck hooking it into the water or he ends up hitting a pretty good drrive but it just leaks into the water here this is a very dramatic hole this

Is definitely one of my favorite holes in the PJ tour not necessarily because of this composition but just because of the variance that this can create you can make a tournament you can break a tourament you can get Eagle here you can get double bogey here and this is

Definitely one of the reasons why this tournament is so great down the stretch is because I think this whole in particular is one of the best closing holes on the PJ T just because of all the drama that it brings here then the 18th hole you know I mean it’s okay it’s

A little gimmicky you got these church pew bunkers over here that aren’t really in play anymore for these guys they hit it so long and with the altitude they kind of blasted way over it I think a couple years ago maybe Fowler was in uh one of these church pews this is

Basically thick Fescue you know it took a little bit to get up and down there but most guys take pretty much all these bunkers out of place set up a short iron into the green but you know again this is another opportunity to get a birdie

On the hole I know web Simpson uh birdied this hole uh back in 2020 in order to uh get into a playoff and steal one from Tony F now overall though look high level as far as this golf course fantastic closing stretch of holes where this tournament always seems like it

Delivers down the stretch it’s why this tournament is very popular it’s why this tournament is one of the best in the PJ tour between the party rocket atmosphere on the 16th hole to holes especially on the back nine that I showed you lot of opportunity for just variance at this

Place and that’s what make tournaments great and dramatic and it needs more types of tournaments like the PG T needs ways to generate juice and Buzz and one of the ways is to have a golf course that can actually generate a lot of drama on its own based on how the holes

Are and promoting High variance scores where things can kind of just flip at the end so hopefully if you’re you know something like that happens again this year you’re on the right side of it if you’re on the wrong side of it at just golf so why don’t we take another break

And then we will get into the nitty-gritty the stats of this golf course what works what doesn’t you know some history behind it and then maybe what I’m looking for uh for this tournament this year all right let’s start to you by cut cut is a peer-to-peer social betting platform

That’s us-based and available in 40 States peer-to-peer social betting is a new and better way to bet bet directly against your friends or other users on Sports politics pop culture and other events with verifiable outcomes plus tons of fun social features that give the feel of betting social networks uh

Cut offers lower Vig and fully customizable odds you can create your own bets cut handles the payment side of things so you never have to chase down anyone for money it’s got social features like group chats betting leaderboards head-to-head history user profiles fan groups and more it also

Gives you rewards every time you you BET uncut you get cash back so you can get more money into your account and bet your friends more and more so cut also allows you to list almost any kind of bet it’s perfect for getting action on

Any type of funds who will prop bet they might not be available for you so cut is the peer-to-peer social betting platform that’s us-based and available in 40 States head to cut.com that’s ku.com and use promo code sgn for a 10% deposit bonus we’re also about you buy Hall of

Fame bets win bigger and bet smarter this NFL season with Hall of Fame bets Sports maning analytics platform for parlays player props and game lines research every NFL NBA and soccer bet with historical stats and data enter any parlay idea into Hall of Fame bets’s revolutionary parlay Optimizer tool okay

Ha R is broken down by leg as well as expected probability for the entire parlay sort all players by hit rate for any bet to learn which players are hot and which picks have value so stop betting in the dark and join over 30,000 users researching with Hall of Fame bets

To craft more intelligent datadriven parlays download the Hall of Fame bets app or visit Hof bets.com use code scpn to get 50% off your first month today start researching start winning with Hall of Fame bets all right we got a couple uh comments in in the Stream here

Tom Cat yeah you’re welcome uh always happy to drop knowledge for you guys uh you know I’m assuming your with your comment about it rolls off the right shelf there I’m assuming that probably is uh number 12 yeah if you hit it a little bit far right it’s going to roll

Right into the water there on that part three again another hole that just creates a variants uh and yeah this is definitely one of the more unique tournament setups on the PG a league that desperately needs positive mainstream Mojo and organic energy that it just cannot create on its own all

Right let’s get rid of that and let’s pull up gcsaa this is actually last year’s ter fact sheet but I don’t expect any changes uh there’s one thing I got reminded of that was a change last year that actually uh changed a little bit how this tournament play that we’ll go

Over in just a little bit but like I mentioned uh this is at TBC Scottdale at the stadium course it was built excuse me in 1986 by Tom weisskoff and Jame Morris Tom wov also did uh TBC Craig Ranch which is um not as successful as

This golf course he also did work at uh the Olympic club which is going to host the PJ Championship I think in 2029 although I think Gil Hans might have went in there and uh maybe undid some of his work but uh in 2014 uh Tom wi cop also did another renovation to

You know I think you know add some more difficulty especially I think around the green at this place that you know makes it a little more entertaining than what it was uh average green size 7,069 square feet that is larger than PG tour average you know last couple weeks

We’ve been dealing with the m Municipal greens at Tory Pines that were about 5,000 square feet we’re dealing with the tiny desperately needed n a renovation greens at the Pebble Beach that are less than 3,500 square feet these are Big greens a lot of real estate to work with

Um you know a lot of opportunity to uh you know go pin hunting because there are generous areas but also you know ways if you are in trouble you can bail out by just hitting the middle of the green getting with your two Putt and Roll Along the let’s go with the

Agronomy though so once again like we did with AMX this is an overseed Golf Course naturally most when it’s warmer weather this is berm base however uh it’s cold this time of year and we’re actually go over the weatherport it’s going to be pretty cold next week and

What happens when you have a Bermuda Golf course that is cold Bermuda goes dormant turns brown and especially with this type of tournament where it’s Waste Management their logo is green there’s a lot of recycling in initiatives there they want this thing to be as green and

Pop as possible so not only do they apply on the green Ser poet trivialis overseed which is your typical overseed grass that you know people prefer when they overseeding they also add Ry grass to it which just gives it that really deep green look and I think it’s more

Aesthetic but it also makes the greens roll really good here we’ll go over some putting stats but guys can make a lot of putts here because unlike what we saw at the POA a couple weeks a or the last couple weeks these balls were really good you get your line you get your

Speed the ball’s going to go in there’s no luck box of hitting a POA but or anything here um you get roam with a putter at this golf course if you are comfortable on putting these greens you can make a lot of putts uh cers and

Approaches again you got a Ry grass B grass poet trivialis mix there again to make it that really deep green to kind of what they’re looking for excuse me the fairways perennial Ry grass fine Fescue overseed the rough here so again overseeded rough Rass and fine Fescue a

Little slight change or not a slight change I don’t know if it’s the same this year but I remember last year I noticed that typically the rough here was about two and a half inches and for whatever reason they cut it down to only two inches it could have been weather

Related I think actually it was pretty cold and I think they had maybe a wet uh winner leading in might have affected how the oversea came in so maybe they chose to only have it two inches but it also could have been because it was such

A star studded field with a lot of really good drivers I thought it was a theory that maybe they wanted to make the rough not all that deep to kind of allow guys to kind of blast it everywhere to give the guys who are better drivers who are usually the

Better players in the pj2 are more of an opportunity to rise up the lebard we kind of saw that happen but uh it also made playing from the rough off the if you hit if you in the rough off the team one of the least penal places on the PG

T that would go over in a little bit um but yeah that’s the grind again very important to understand that while this is a ber a golf course most years this is overseed um you know it makes a little different I’ll have in my column uh the

Golf courses that are overseed just top of mind though the only other golf course I know that’s overseed that also has this grass in it is TBC Scots or TBC Saw Grass again looking for this deep emerald green look because the pg2 are so sensitive to appearances and how it

Looks and lo and behold Scotty shuffler won the Players last you put really well there maybe there’s something to that let’s go over the course stats so me let me zoom in a little bit too I know this is kind of small okay there we go so these are the rankings

From you know with data golf uh obviously you know I’m big proponent of it if you are on the fence about getting their uh you know premium package or uh getting stuff behind the pay wall all the stuff I’m showing you right right here I believe is not behind a pay wall

But if you are somebody who is on the fence sign up uh it’s worth it this is free advertising not paying me to say this uh I am a huge proponent it is tremendously helpful and they have a lot of tremendously helpful stuff like this stuff so what this measures here is

Basically the types of difficult you know difficulty in the approach shots now there’s some 85 golf courses listed in their database since 2015 so in general off the tea and with putting fairly easy conditions and just like the type of golf course it is fairly easy to do with this golf course

With a couple caveats that’ll get to with the driving in a little bit where the difficulty seems to be at TBC Scottdale is around the green with their approach play uh and I think it’s a little bit weather dependent too I remember last year it was very cold and

Windy in uh the first couple rounds there I think that’s probably why last year was one of the toughest golf courses hit approach shots on the PG tour because of those conditions but then you get some other years I think 2021 where it was just Dome conditions I think played as firm as

Other years fairly easy approach shots so the weather might be a little bit of a factor as far as how difficult it is to hit your pro shots people it isn’t around the green that’s usually pretty consistently one of the tougher ones in the PJ T um you know there’s a lot of

Tight lies around the green obviously when you’re tighten off of type Ry grass similar to like a Gustin Ash with the same grass as what they you know chipping off of from those tight Fairway lies there you know some of that grass can be kind of sticky uh you know you

You can stick the club into it and you know maybe you don’t get quite as good contact with the ball chipping off tight lies there uh the greens are also big so if you miss in the wrong spot there’s a lot of real State you got to navigate to

To get to the hole you know the greens can play kind of firm as well so if you’re someone who might be struggling um for you know when you’re around the green game this might not be a very good golf course for you especially if you’re

Not hitting l L of greens but let’s go over everything in U you know each category I’ll point out some per things let’s start with driving first and let’s actually switch to uh values here so this golf course consistently has one of the higher driving uh yardages on the PG

T and it’s primarily because you basically can hit driver on all holes there’s unlike a Pebble Beach we saw last week you know a lot of forc layups here this way you pull driver everywhere and usually plays pretty firm to you have the altitude as well I think it’s

At like 20 200 feet elevation most guys are able to hit it a very long ways here uh even your Billy horels or Alex norren or Denny McCarthy especially with the firm conditions the altitude you hit the Fairway Ball’s going to roll so that’s why you see a lot of really big driving

Distances here not very high driving accuracy rates here you know only historically about 56% I think the PG T is like 60% or so so you know not very easy to hit Fairways but you know that’s mostly because of you know there’s a lot of room off the te but I think it’s

Because of the firm conditions where and because the ball is going farther you know there’s more opportunity that if you’re a little bit offline it’s going to land the rough there or it’s going to bound into the rough based on the firm conditions but as far as if it’s actually penal to miss

A fairway here let’s uh I mean these numbers don’t really mean anything to you let’s go to the rankings here overall it’s about you know middle of the road to miss a fairway here the difference in the score between if you’re in the Fairway and if you weren’t

You know it’s about pj2 average about like a 35 stroke difference per hole now the rough here not a lot of difference at all between your score if you hit an approach shot out of the rough here and if you’re in the Fairway and we noticed

Here it was one of the bottom five last year if you were hitting out of the rough your approach out the rough into the green as far as your score on the hole I think that’s because of the lower rough uh I think that was a direct correlation there uh you’re non- rough

Penalty that’s like your Fairway bunkers your um you know like your waist areas if you’re really offline you know that’s actually that’s one of the lower penalties as well because it’s kind of a luck box at that point we saw a couple years ago with Jordan Speed he was blasting it way into

The desert but he was avoiding the cactus bushes he was aving avoiding the boulders and if you can do that you know you have a pretty clean line you can get ball first Contact just kind of sitting there on you know some Pebbles and rocks it’s okay but this penalty fraction here

This is the way you want to keep in mind we kind of looked at a little bit with the Google Earth stuff uh one of the highest rates and penalties incurred off the te for op for Miss Fairways and obviously I think a lot of that has to

Do with hole number 11 where if you have the ball just starting a little far left it’s going to roll right in um you know that you also have the opportunity too that if you’re way offline if you go into the desert you know sure you could

Be okay in some places but there’s Cactus bushes there’s um you know some rocks and boulders you know you can definitely incur a penalty just by an unplayable lie there uh it’s not stroke in distance but you know you’re dropping for your third at that point so that is why you

Know yes there is opportunities where you can get away with it if you are spraying it but you definitely can get punished if you miss the wrong points and that is indicative with how high penalties you know how the percentage of t- shots that incur a penalty at this

Golf course let’s go to approach shots um you know so 65% green regulation rate about pj2 or average here again I think it depends basically on the weather last year really cold and windy conditions in the first couple rounds a lot lower green regulation rates I think the greens are pretty

Pling pretty firm to but before that 69% in 2022 71% 2021 a little easier your scoring conditions overall that’ll show in a little bit you know if it’s Dome golf if maybe they get a little bit of rain before that uh maybe the greens are a little more receptive they are bigger

As well there’s not really a lot of wind or elements these guys got to deal with they can hit a lot of greens at a fairly High rate um but last year though if it was cold and windy these guys are having a little trouble there uh as far as the

Difficulty of approach shots here let’s go back to the rankings you know above average difficulty of all golf courses since 2015 you know slightly above average last year you saw that all approach shots were one of the most difficult ones in the pg2 that is completely weather related there but

Then you get to 2021 pretty easy uh conditions to hit approach shots because it’s just don’t golf no wind you know you saw guys really go flag hunting in that particular year so yeah the weather definitely can play a bit of a part in it around the green uh one you know I

Mentioned the tight lies around the Fairway one of the toughest places to try and get up and down from uh from the Fairway is at TBC Scottsdale again you know there’s a lot of collection areas there are there big greens that you got to maybe you know get um you know

Navigate a lot of real estate to get to the pin if these greens are playing firm as well you you got to have really good spin control so chipping off the tight lies into some of these greens can be fairly difficult as evidenced by the scoring there the rough again not very penal

Just like with a fairway there’s not a I don’t think there’s a ton of Rough Around The Greens at TBC Scottdale uh maybe by you know like you know maybe the ends of some collection areas but if you’re in the rough that’s actually probably the most ideal Place uh the

Bunkers are actually fairly tough to get up and down from as well again if you miss the wrong spot there’s a lot of real estate you got to navigate you got to have really good spin control um you know it can be fairly difficult conditions around the green

Here at TBC Scottdale and then putting though like I mentioned with the uh Ry grass overseed in with the PO trivio these greens roll really good these are one of the easiest greens to make putts on on the pg2 where basically if you a really good putter here and you have

Confidence with the flat stick make a lot of putts under five feet make a lot of putts between five and 15 feet you can definitely go low here if you get it going you know this I guess you know hopefully what I showed you with this

Golf course is if you’re hitting it good you can definitely go low here but if you’re booing around you know there’s a lot of opportunity to really put up high numbers very high variance Golf Course here but um definitely with putting if you’re hitting really good you have

Every opportunity in the world make a lot of putts let’s go over historical scoring and just who’s won here so last year Scotty sheffler won it 19 under he was going neck and neck with h Nick Taylor uh down the stretch I was definitely sweating at that point

Thinking uh you know maybe a single bulleting Scotty uh wasn’t gonna work out for me it did uh but you notice the first couple rounds here I I got highlight here plus 1.4 overp par it was really cold and windy uh first round here guys are really struggling I

Remember I think I you know I had a position on morawa because I just thought he was a perfect play thing for this but the wind kicked up he really struggled I think he had a missing a cut here um but over the weekend though it kind of settled into its average usually

The average score if it’s Dome conditions no win adversity usually around a shot under par maybe a stroke you know shade under that maybe a lot of guys are kind of hitting the wire incurring penalties maybe it pushes it lower there but you know not the

Toughest of golf course if you get it going but um you know not the easiest either um you know definitely you know this 11th hole you see the average score was 0.56 overpar uh 21 bogeys eight doubles in the final round there mostly because the guys hit in the water what

Was it in the first round actually yeah actually wasn’t all that much but there was still uh 50 bogeys to be had uh in the first round there uh on number 11 where he can hit in the water but uh going back through the years 2022 here

Uh Scotty shuer again won he won a playoff over Patrick Klay uh not very difficult scoring conditions I think the fir again the first round bled into uh Friday guys are finished up in some Colder Weather maybe that’s what pushed down the average score here but

It kind of settled in the rest of the tournament to about what it was you know 0.9 underpar in round two stroke underpar in round three uh point a underpar in round four it was firm but not a lot of win not a lot of versity

You can go you know guys can shoot under par there uh 2021 I think this was one of the easier ones the last couple years average score minus 1.7 underpar you saw guys just in round two to four just really eat this place up uh average

Score in round for uh 2021 was uh minus two I remember because I I bet Brooks mid tournament because it just everyone seemed like they didn’t want to win this thing and coming on the back nine Brooks I think was like hanging 18 to one live

And I just bet that because I was like well he’s the only one that seems like he’s actually has it today um but everybody was kind of eating up that golf course that day minus two underpar there so you know and that was Dome conditions so the scoring can definitely

Be dictated based on the weather if it’s cold windy maybe some rain too you know maybe those house cats kind of struggle a little bit that we talked about at Pebble Beach last week um that can affect scores if it’s Dome conditions these guys can go low and the weather

Though it’s going to be a continuation these guys are gonna if if you’re playing Pebble Beach they going to have to uh make sure they pack those parkos in rain gear um for Scottsdale because it’s be cold they’re gonna get some rain before the tournament they’re gonna get

Some rain during the tournament so uh Thursday looks like some rain in the morning which is unusual I think for Scottdale because it’s in a desert maybe some wind up in the afternoon here only a high of 54 that’s not very uh Dome conditions here Friday you know maybe a little bit

Of win but not all severe but again you know only high of 59 it’s G to be relatively cold Saturday Sunday at least for you know not any rain not a lot of wind but again just a lot of cold so I’m looking at this and you know typically

In like TBC Scottsdale weather 70 degrees altitude no wind anything like that you know a lot of guys can uh just get it out there with you know with the driver there maybe with the colder conditions it might lengthen a little bit the fact that it’s going to get a

Lot of rain leading to the tournament as well maybe the ball doesn’t roll out as much maybe this year might favor a little more longer hitters um than prior years maybe if the fairways are running a little softer maybe balls won’t run into the water on 11 this year maybe

They’ll play a little more generous this year than they have so that’s something to watch obviously the weather can change very you know drastically through um the week you know I mean as far as a WAV split right now I would probably say they’re probably same with this wind

Is probably relates to the rain so where that comes when it comes through I guess I would probably shade Thursday afternoon Friday morning for the way splits but I mean we’re going to need to see a firmer weather report before we can really make that conclusion uh let’s

Talk about course fit here oh no my Wi-Fi is uh going well I’m gonna have to just you know manually explain it to you guys here but let’s pull up Scottdale here so this has a higher correlation of guys who drive it really good to success

At this ter this graph here is a predictive skill set chart there we go my my internet’s working now it’s a predictive skill set chart uh this basically shows what types of guys you want to look for at the PJ tour or before a golf course and there’s a

Higher correlation of guys who are longer and guys who are more accurate with theug driver who do very well here makes a lot of sense from what I talked about you know this is a golf course that can promote big driving distances here with the altitude and the firmness

But there’s a lot of opportunity to get yourself in trouble uh at this golf course with the high degree of penalties and that is how you really get yourself out of a t here is if you put in the water or put it behind a cactus Bush uh

So yeah guys who drive it really good tend to do well here makes a lot of sense with a guy like Scotty Sheffer has won here the last two years makes a lot said that Brooks kka one of the best drivers in the world he’s won here twice

Even Webb Simpson though he’s a shorter hitter but he hits a lot of Fairways stayed out of trouble for the most part he won here so you know it’s a it’s no surprise that um I think murfield Village is well maybe not beill actually beill is actually one of the higher

Correlated golf courses to this place as far as Skillets needed and they predictive to do well because again like at Bay Hill yeah we think about Bryson doing well we think about Scotty she who’s won there by the way uh a little bit of cross over there we think about a

Lot of B Roar we think about guys who are bombers but I mean there’s a lot of guys who are fairly accurate to do very well at Bay Hill it’s all because just avoiding trouble there with all the water hazards there you know no surprise that based you know the driving here you

Know it’s very similar to that Golf Course about pg2 average far as approach play I mean this is going to be their most predictive skill set anyways your iron play heading in um a little less predictive with around the green but and then putting though better Putters

Generally do a little better here than most pgs venues I think because of how well and true these greens role for the most part at TBC Scottdale um let’s get to uh what actually separates you in tournament though at Scottdale so this is different you know I I always like looking at this

Box here and for me personally I love seeing correlated skill sets with what’s predictive versus how you separate yourself and the big theme at this place is got you know more than the average pg2 venue if you’re driving it really well here you’re gonna be able to separate yourself more from everybody

Else in the field and that’s indicative based on this black point right here this the PG average this green is what it was I’m gonna be honest I don’t know what the numbers actually mean I just know what it indicates typically the better you drove it in tournament the better chance of

Success you had here and this is consistent uh all basically almost every year it was really evident back in 2021 again when Scotty sheffler won uh or in 2022 in 2021 here a little less maybe because of the easier conditions but in 2020 again a lot a little bit you know

If you drove it better that week more than the average pg2 or golf course you were able to separate yourself and do a little better on the leaderboard that week uh approach play generally is a little discounted here can’t really think of a good reason why maybe it’s

Just because it’s so heavily skewed towards your off the te play um that if you’re in the Fairway there your proot isn’t quite as difficult not as high as most PG tour venues as far as your ability to separate yourself on the lra with your irons uh at least in 2023 2022

Again the same thing a little less than the pg2 were average 2021 same thing it’s still one of the most important metrics to basically separate yourself here is through your iron play it’s not quite as impactful as everywhere else there around the green again with some of the difficult

Conditions guys are able to navigate The Greens a little better uh last year did better overall I think maybe the lower green of Regulation rates had something to do with that back in 2022 again same thing maybe the tough you know lies around the green tough bunkers um you

Know it is fairly difficult conditions again another theme as well in 2021 it’s still not the most important uh metric or ways to win a tournament or do well here but it’s a little more important in tournament to do it better than some other venues we’ve seen um you

One thing I also want to going back to off the tea as well so while distance I I’ve made this point I think in a couple previews uh before but when it comes to off the tea in order to be you know from a predictive standpoint as far as how guys

Are going to do driving that week distance is more predictive because the ability to hit Fair Airways is pretty random you know you could be just a little bit offline and you’re missing a lot of Fairways that day or you could just be H driving it really good and you

Make lot fa it’s kind of similar to putting but round to round how you do that day in relation to the field off the te is way more driven by how many Fairways you hit which makes sense because there is an inherent penalty to not hitting Fairways if you hit Fairways

That day so what happened last year though was it definitely favored guys basically your your inter and strokes gain off the team metric was way more driven by distance last year than accuracy and I think that’s probably because of maybe the less penal WTH that they had you

Know was a little less there’s really no difference between you know hitting the rough and hitting from the Fairway at that point it’s not quite uh the same as prior years uh in 2022 the amount of Fairways you hit like way disproportionately had better effects on

Your show the te numbers than it was distance uh in 2021 I mean it was kind of ran less basically that year off the te didn’t really matter as much but accuracy was a lot more important than distance I think it’s gonna be interesting to watch and

See if they have the same tournament conditions that they have last or this year uh this is gonna be the same thing also because it’s colder guys aren’t gonna be able to carry as far maybe the fair are playing a little softer maybe I expect longer guys to have more of an

Edge again this year that might be something I maybe look a little more towards um you know maybe it plays out very similar what it was in 20 uh uh 23 and then was putting again you know I think because maybe the you know it’s very easy to put on these greens harder

To se separate yourself around the green or on the greens here last year uh with the type of overseed they had same thing in 2022 it was a little harder to separate yourself on the greens in tournament um you know I think be you know in general you want to Target guys

Are pretty good Putters that tends to have more of a success at least before tournament when you’re picking in TN though it’s not as impactful toward your overall Strokes gain separating yourself from the leaderboard and then let’s talk about um a proot distribution chart last year so last couple week last week at

Pebble Beach we talked about wedge play huge disproportionate numbers of shots from under 125 100 150 yards than the average PJ Golf Course complete opposite this week not a ton under 150 yards at this golf course uh at least from 75 to 150 it’s less than the PG tour average

You have about the PG tour average from 50 to 75 yards but it’s only 3% that’s one shot I think that’s probably either if you lay up on the par 51 15th or might be maybe a 50 yard shot uh maybe on 17 but a huge disproportionate amount between 150 and

200 last year uh in 2022 it was a little more evenly distributed I can’t think of exactly why um but still a higher amount between 150 and 175 this one in 2021 definitely got a little more normalized uh slightly higher from 125 to 150 but way more

Between 150 and 200 here so going back to last year about 45% of your shots between 150 and 200 um you know there’s a lot less shots between 200 or under or over 200 from this tournament as well and again I would expect uh with the colder conditions

Maybe a lot of rain coming in before the tournament soften up the fairways a bit Ball’s aren’t going to carry as far ball might not roll as far I think this might play a little farther I think uh you know maybe some uh proximity buckets shift a little more um but I would

Definitely Focus this week on between your performance between 150 and 200 that seems to be you know the highest concentration year to year of the types of pro shots you want to um look at for your either if you’re still using proximity or if you’re on data golf

You’re using the stroke scheme per shot metric that I use um that’s the range to focus on we also have some uh pre-tournament odds available uh on for the Phenix open I don’t have any bets down I know a lot of people do I just didn’t really see an

Appetite to try I I think actually I looked at the odds and yes they have been offering it for six months but I just didn’t see any value I didn’t know who’s going to exactly be in the field but Scotty Sheffer plus 350 this

Week uh I think when I got him a couple years ago I think he was 25 to one last year I think he was 12 to one uh not as good of a field he’s 29 defending Champion I they don’t want you betting Scotty this week he’s plus 350 Xander 10

To one Hollins 11 to one JT’s 11 to1 this is just one book but H is 12 to one and then it goes down to hisle guys between 20 30 spe sunj Burns Poston 25 to one Windham Clark maybe he can carry some momentum from last week he’s 28 to1

Minwu Lee who bombs it everywhere I’m sure he’s gonna be a pop your pick 30 to one and then you got you know basically guys smush between you know 4050 to one your Tom Kims your Matt fitzpatricks Hideki is a two-time winner here uh your Eric Kohl’s who’s my producer is going

To just bet again because he just has severe fomo you know I mean you might be able to find some value between 40 and 61 but otherwise though if you’re looking at top of the board if you’re hoping to get you know maybe discount some of the top

Names you’re basically looking at single bullet here uh probably down the board you know a name that caught my eye oxe 100 to1 he’s been playing really good this year I mean obviously at uh capalo he had a 54 whole lead he played pretty well at Tory a couple weeks ago I don’t

Know exactly how he’s going to do on these overseed greens I know he typically puts pretty well in POA but he’s hitting the ball pretty good he’s a longer hit he’s a good driver that can maybe work um other than that though I’ll have to take a look I’ll

Have to dive into the data but that’s where the odds are right now um obviously we will have uh let’s get rid of this uh we will have it’s actually a very jam-packed week for us on the golf gaming podcast uh tomorrow we will have our DFS show with Matt Ganon Tuesday we

Will have our waste manager Phoenix Open betting show with Jeff feberg uh coming in I know we’re very excited to have him on the show I know he’s made a bunch of bets um already I’m GNA try and get him to clear the boore and try and maybe

Help you guys out if you have made a bet what he would actually do today and then we also have another live event Liv lost Vegas I have broken down the golf course I have charted out I’m going to be completely real with you guys not a strong offering with where Liv is

Going um I would probably describe it as a worst version of TVC Summerland which is not a compliment and then we will have that show actually directly after our betting show on Tuesday we’ll live stream the podcast will get released on Wednesday and then Thursday our last NFL show of the year

That we were given to you guys as bonus content so keep listening to us we will have our Super Bowl props show on Thursday we will go over our official pick for the game we will go over any game props player props any novelty props I know I showed a bunch of novelty

Props like the anthem or Taylor Swift stuff to my wife uh she is eager to get off her official pick a couple years ago she was absolutely adamant that Mary J blig was going to wear uh hoop ear Hoops earrings during the halftime show and I

Laid a pretty big bet I think at like Plus 180 and that hits so she’s riding hot with this stuff she knows her stuff so it’s very important to listen to what my wife is probably going to want to bet uh for the halftime show or the anthem

So stay tuned for that but thank you for joining me on this Sunday morning I always appreciate it uh you guys showing up and with the comments here uh please subscribe to our podcast uh on Apple or Spotify it really helps us out give us a

Rate and review as well uh doesn’t have to be five stars give us any rating we’d love to hear feedback from you hopefully it’s five stars hopefully you enjoy everything we put out and also make sure to subscribe to our YouTube change page this is all free that we’re giving you

Um you know we work hard at this stuff so go subscribe to our YouTube channel we’ll have all our anything in podcast form in video form as well um you know especially helpful for this preview so go subscribe there subscribe to our podcast subscribe on Apple or Spotify

Wherever you listen to podcast and with that uh if you’re sweating bats uh if you’re sweating bats for Pebble Beach you’ll have to swm tomorrow if you’re sweating bets for live good luck with that and when uh with that we will see you on Tuesday night