2024 Withers Stakes – The Pedigree Puzzle

Jessica goes horse-by-horse giving handicapping thoughts and pedigree insights into the 2024 Withers Stakes field.

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Trust the profits is proud to be sponsored by game of silks go to Silks doio to get in the game Real ownership real races real rewards there are four Kentucky Derby preps taking place this Saturday the Southwest Stakes at okl the Holy Bull at Gulfstream the Robert be Lewis at San

Anita and the withers at Aqueduct and I’m going to be talking about the ladder on this episode of the pedigree puzzle Although the Winer of the withers hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Count Fleet won the race between victories in the pness and Belmont Stakes there have some been some really talented horses to come out of the race that has been positioned now as a local prep for the Wood Memorial since

2012 since then the winners have included Trevor Stakes Winner Alpha and pris Stakes Winner early voting 2020 winner max player finished third than Traverse and would become a grade one winner in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the following year half of the 12 winners since 2012 contested the Kentucky Derby

With revolutionary third place finish in the 2012 edition being the best performance while it’s hard to say if any of these horses will have an impact on the Kentucky Derby I do think there are some talent in here and wanted to talk about this group of horses and

Their pedigrees so this year’s field consists of nine three-year-olds and it’s headlined by Morning Line favorite light line a debut winner back in September who has since finished second in two consecutive allowance starts a grand that o already a two-time Stakes Winner against New York FRS as a

Two-year-old is a second choice on the morning line at 5 to2 so let’s go Horse by horse and take a look at about the past performances and the pedigrees first is speedrunner this whisper hill homebred by Gunrunner is the only horse in the field with a win at today’s Mile

And an eighth distance having broken his ma in at this distance on December 8th he pressed the pace through fairly slow fractions in that effort but prevailed by a neck over malarchuk earning a 73 buyer and showing improvement from a seven forong debut where he finished third behind Bal our rner who finished

Third in the nsha stes in his next start at a mile but was disappointing in the remson when going a mile and an eighth in the following effort Bal will be shortening up back to seven furlongs in the S Stakes at golf stream on Saturday and that race is scheduled to go off

Shortly after the withers speedrunner is by the brilliant sire Gunrunner and out of the unraced May speed succeeds a daughter of gone west speed succeeds is already the dam of a derby prep winner as the dam of grade one Bluegrass Stakes with a brilliant speed a really talented

Son of Dino forer who captured that Derby prep over the synthetic and did his best running on Turf she’s also the damn of Stakes Winner super Speedy by Indian Charlie and is a daughter of the Stakes Winner daene who captured Stakes at both six furong and a mile on a 16th

Daim was also the dam of two stakes winners by AP Indie was a half sister to multiple graded Stakes Winner with approval and a full sister to Triple Crown spoiler touch gold who defeated Silver Charm in the 1997 Belmont Stakes being by breeders C plastic winner and

The family of a Belmont Stakes Winner it’s no surprise that this Colt improved with distance and if he passes this class test I expect that a mile and a quarter should be within his wheelhouse deposition is listed at 50 to1 on the morning line for owner trainer Uriah St Louis who can certainly

Pull off a shocker on a big day he was unsuccessful in his first four stars before breaking through in a maiden special weight at parks on November 21st going a mile and 70 yards he returned in the heft stakes at lural Park on December 30th but failed to outf finish

A single horse in the field of seven he has blinkers here and stretches back out we have to show Market Improvement to be a major factor here he does come in off a very sharp bullet gate workk and 8 and change that might indicate that that kind of improvement is there perhaps

That was a uh Breeze with the blinkers on but it’s just a bit too much of a stretch for me of course you might think differently there are reasons to think that 50 to one might be a bit of an overlay on a horse with an equipment

Change and a sharp drill coming in I think like 20 to1 would make more sense but either way I don’t really need him in here he’s a son of constitution who can obviously get a talented race horse and a route Runner and his dam was a a

Winner on debut by du BWI who has produced two other starters both of them who are useful Runners who’ve won multiple races but they’re more mid-level claiming to allowance types which really honestly seems like it might be more what the future holds for deposition next is the morning line

Favorite light line he’s 8 to five on the morning line but he does have something to prove here for trainer Brad Cox and the allball family Stables this $600,000 keyless September purchase looked like he was worth every penny when he won his debut at horses shoot Indianapolis by 13 and 3/4 lengths

Earned an 83 that day but there wasn’t really a whole lot in behind him in that race the four horses he defeated who have come back to race are a combined over 12 cents he has chased some nice horses home in those two allowance races since though on October 14th he finished

Second to stretch ride who was third in the Kentucky Jockey Club in his next start and he came from well off the pace to be beaten four lengths by Carbone in his most recent start Carbone will be running in the southwest Stakes at okom Park about an hour after the withers

He’s 9-2 on the morning line and looks to have a good chance in that race having gone nearly gate to wier’s debut stalked into second start and then rallied from well off of a quick Pace last time out light line should have the versatility to get a good trip

Regardless of how the pace plays out in here light line is the son of city of light now of the Maria’s monare upper line who is a Stakes spner at up to 12 furlongs and has produced a great at St Place runner at that same mile and a

Half distance with stamina like that on the bottom I’m not worried about the extra 16th of a mile here and I think it’s very possible that a mile and a quarter could be in his future as well while city of light was Ved a mile to a

Mile and an eighth his best Runners seem to appreciate that range as well he is still a sire of Mimi kakushi who was a winner of the UAE Oaks going a mile and 316s so it’s not totally out of the question that a son City ofite could get

A mile and a quarter especially with some stamina on the bottom of the Dam’s family which light line has next is El Grande o I see this horse as the horse to beat for Linda rice and owner Barry Schwarz he has plenty of foundation with

Three wins and nine starts to date and I expect him to probably go to the lead in here as he’s done in all of his best efforts he boasts the highest career buyer speed figure in here of 86 earned when he finished a game second to the

Wine Seward in the funny sign Stakes as you might know I do think that the wine Stewart is one of the more exciting horses in this crop so I have a lot of respect for a horse like this who could press into the wire like that by far his

Worst efforts came on debut when he bumped at the break and encountered significant trouble but still got up for third obv get well beaten by the wine Steward and in the champagne Stakes where he was taken off the pace and just simply didn’t go on he was most recently

Seen finishing second in the Jerome to drum roll please after setting a fairly easy Pace early I do feel like he ran on well in that race which was his first in over two months and I think we’ll see him build off of that seasonal de view

He comes in off of a nice five for long work over the bont train track that I think suggests Linda rice has him ready to roll this is a pedigree that suggests that a mile in an eighth should be all right his sire take charge Indie was

Well beaten in the Kentucky Derby and is only 10 for long attempt but was a winner of the nine furong Florida Derby and the eight and a half furong Ali Shea Stakes his damn rainbow song has already produced graded Stakes Place Meal Ticket who finished second in the gry 2 Royal

Heroin Stakes going a mile on the turf and was a winner at up to nine furong while I’m not convinced a m a quarter will be ideal for this front runner I think the mile in an eth here will suit him just fine and I think he has a

Really big shot in here the one concern is that I do think he will get some PR Pace pressure from the outside that could hinder his performance and one of those horses I think could play that role is seol Chief he was a winner by eight lengths on Deb going five fongs

And was most recently seen winning the Florida sire in reality Stakes on December 2nd in his first start raring blinkers which he will retain in here sandwich between those two wins was a disappointing effort in the Florida s firm Stakes where he was bumped at the start and simply didn’t get his

Preferred trip like I said this is a horse who I think could pose a pace rival for Al Grande o but he’s proven that he is capable of stalking off the pace like he did in that debut win though of course that was against far lesser competition than what he’ll face

In here Trevor McCarthy gets aboard this Jack sisterson traine for the first time today he is a son of gerin who so far has seen his progeny find most of their success sprinting but was himself a winner of the hasal and Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs each his dam was a

Daughter of Dunkirk whose biggest career effort was probably his runner-up finish in the Belmont Stakes so there could be a little hope for some extra stamina in here in addition to se old Chiefs s going to mile on a 16th she’s also the dam of an allowance winner going the

Same distance on the turf though there isn’t a whole lot to note close up in his pedigree his dam was unplaced in her only start and the next two dams were unraced he actually goes back to an important female family his fourth Dam won’t she tell was a stakes snner and

More importantly a half sister to Triple chrum Winner Affirmed overall this is clearly a very talented Florida bread but I don’t see him doing a whole lot more than maybe hitting the board in here number six is society man this is the only gelding and only Maiden in the

Field and it’s tough for me to see him pulling off the upset here for Danny gargan and West Paces racing he was third beat four and a half lengths by speedrunner in that December 8th Maiden raise although he did get bumped at the start and up Force wide in there so he

Didn’t get an ideal trip while I don’t think this is going to be the spot he breaks his Maiden I really do like the pedigree for this son of good magic who of course sired last year’s Kentucky Derby winner he comes from the same female family as a sire and the cross of

Good magic over Mar’s carrying soaring this Colts aped Dam has reduced sakes spiners curly Jack and perform AB yet from a sample size of just seven his Damu cheated was a daughter of Colonel John who was six placed on the turf and synthetic her only other fold the race a

Fourl by turl and candy is a non-winner in six starts has made special weight level in Ohio then we have Mission Beach this horse was transferred to trainer Britney Russell from the Bob baffer Barn toward the end of last year and seems to have settled in well on the East Coast

He wanted a Laurel Park allowance in his first start for his new trainer and showed a new dimension that day settling eight lengths off the pace and rallying to win by a length in three quarters he won his debut at delmare but was well beaten both the hopeful at Saratoga and

The Bob Hope back in at delmare before transferring to Russell for an ownership group that includes SF racing and starlight racing among many others this will be the son of kin’s first attempt past seven furlongs both of his wins have come at six but Russell is a 33%

Trainer from 58 starts going Sprint to Route there are a few concerns here on pedigree though especially when you look at his Dam obviously curling can get anything from sprinters like Elite power to Myers like Cody’s wish and even routers extreme routers like Belmont Stakes malice but Stu the damama Mission

Beach was a pure Sprinter both of her winds came at four and a half furlongs at charl town she has produced a winner in a mile in a 16th by mallia deoro and if Mission Beach has inherited cin stamina then the mile eight shouldn’t be

An issue but it is a question mark if he can get the distance he’s a threat in here I think now we have Uncle heavy this Pennsylvania bread for trainer Robert Reed and owner Milam Racing Stables has a very similar profiled a seminal Chief but with slightly better buyer speed

Figures he gamely broke his Maiden by a net going six furong at parks but was well beaten after dwelling in ducking in at the start of the Pennsylvania Nursery stakes in his second start he returned a month later to take the state bread weight for it Stakes going a mile of 70

Yards at the same track again breaking the step slow but this time coming with a successful rally he’s a son of social inclusion whose main claim to fame is that he ran third in the pre Stakes but he’s still been a decent sire in Florida and Uncle have’s damn expect wonderful was a

Daughter of tis wonderful who got her only win going five and a half furong his only sibling to race is a two-time winner at six furong as a fun fact that doesn’t really have anything to do with the outcome of this race he actually does come from the same distant female

Family as speedrunner and the sher’s mitochondrial DNA with that rival but you have to go all the way back to the late 1800s to find their most recent common ancestor All Things Considered I’m not really confident about this horse getting the extra 16th of a mile against this caliber of competition

Unless maybe there’s a pace collapse up front so I’m gonna pass here then we have kanate and I I really like this horse he’s a trop Todd Pletcher trainee and I do think he has a Stakes win in his future but I’m just not convinced it’s going to come here in the withers

He took three starts to break his Maiden but looked very nice winning a kein maiden special weight by 10 and a half lengths in October note that that race was restricted to horses who had sold our rnaa for $50,000 or less at auction and as a $35,000 kein September purchase

He fit perfectly in that condition he returned into an allowance ex Churchill Downs where he set the pace and DED really gamly into the stretch before he got in tight between horses and Faded to six late I do think this was a better race than it looks like on paper though

Winter parchment party is a very highly regarded horse and the third place finisher came back to win his next start and Cone wasn’t really persevered with through the Finish he returned the Jerome and again Ram what I think was a better race than it looks at first

Glance he stumbled and took up a little bit at the start which forced him to St three wide most of the way he made a little bit of a middle move going into the turn that looked like he was going to make him a threat to El grandeo but

He just couldn’t keep up with Al grandeo and drum roll pleas late since he had to use a little extra energy both physically and mentally I’m willing to forgive him and give him one more shot going a route here especially since I think the price will be right I’m not

Confident he’s a win Contender but I think he could sit just off the pace hang around for second or third Kane is by high tail a stallion that I think is supremely underrated as a you sire hiel Brook has made it in the rers cup juvenile Sprint which would

Turn out to be his only career Victory but despite that lackluster resume and the quality of mirors you’d expect for such a stallion he’s been really productive he has six Stakes winners and just 51 starters which is an 11.8% strike rate that’s a pretty Elite percentage consider that justify has

Gotten 10.4% Stakes winners and gun Runner has gotten 10.5% Stakes winners while those are from much larger sample sizes they’re also from much better Mays so let’s talk about the comparable index or CI it’s a measure of the mayor EST stallion is bred to showing the average

Earnings index of a May’s Offspring when BR to other stallion one being that a May’s Offspring have earned an amount equal to the average amount from all runners in the year they raced the CI of the mayor’s High tail has gotten is 1.27 meaning their offspring earn on average

120% of the breed average in a year compare this to the 2.47 CI of Gun Runners Mars or the 2.76 CI of Justin vmes also notable is that the 1.39 average earnings index or AEI of High’s Offspring is higher than the CI of his Mayors meaning he’s moving up the

Production of his Mayors hi Tail’s best runner today is Mongolian groom a grade one winner at nine furlongs he’s also the sire of dinil a multiple Stakes Winner at eight and a half furlongs on Turf kaboom baby a Stakes Winner at a mile Willow Creek Road a Stakes Winner

At a mile on a 16th and the mile and eighth Busa Stakes Winner Jin Jin so while hiil himself was a sprinter as a sire he does seem to be a little bit more in the mold of his own sire Min shaft as a sire of routers of course

Kanate doesn’t get much stamina from his Dam who was a six winning Turf Sprinter named Mongolian Shopper but what he might be lacking in stamina gets compensated for by the class of this female family that traces back to Meadow star his fourth Dam and the 1990 Champion 2-year-old Philly her other

Notable descendants include Champion arog gate and Delaware handicap winner Bel galante overall this feels like a pretty chalky race on paper I don’t really have very many any clever opinions here to me Al Grande o is the horse to beat he’s proving and take pressure and go on but

I think he’s going to get pressure from classier horses that he’s faced in the past Simo Chief Kane and possibly even Mission Beach on the stretch out so he’s going to have to prove himself to hold on in here light line is a logical favorite who’s faced solid horses in his

Last to but I feel like he’s just going to be a little bit of an underlay based on that debut race against what appears to have been inferior Rivals however his versatility is a key factor here and I don’t think you can get by without him z

Viin e is a question mark for a horse like Mission Beach who I don’t think is without a chance but I am going to end up leaving off here and speedrunner he looks like a legitimate horse I love that he’s already proving himself at the distance but I don’t necessarily love

The rail break for a horse whose best effort came when he got the lead through fairly slow fractions he wouldn’t shock me but I’ll relegate him to either a b type for horizontal players or a horse to use underneath for vertical players here I am also including conate as a

Horse to keep in mind for vertical Wagers honestly this is really kind of just a gut feeling type of play one I wouldn’t blame you at all for not taking seriously but I think at 15 to one or better he does present value in a race

That doesn’t have a whole lot of it I think his last two races were better than they looked on paper especially that optional claimer behind parchment party and I think he could be close to the lead and hang around for a paycheck although I am still a bit worried about

The distance catching up to him late so I do have El Grande o on top I wouldn’t feel safe leaving light line out of horizontal Wagers even though like I said I feel like anything under about even money is an underlay on him speedrunner is probably legit but I

Don’t love the rail and I just think cone is better than he looks on paper so I couldn’t go without giving him some kind of Nod here in my selections so that’s my rundown of the Wither Stakes let me know what you think and leave your thoughts in the comments

Below and until next time thanks so much for watching Uh it’s gonna be one of those type of videos isn’t it all right that’s fine that justify has gotten 10.4 perak since wi with Revolution I