AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Pebble Beach Golf Links in Pebble Beach, California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
0:40 Course Preview
4:53 10K Range
10:45 9K Range
16:05 8K Range
20:08 7K Range
27:06 6K Range
29:50 Custom Model
32:49 Outro
Resources


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All right welcome in Pebble Beach proam this week it is technically the second signature event on the PGA tour for 2024 but it feels like the first the century technically was a signature event but it was a smaller feel this is what these events are going to look like moving

Forward so this really does feel like the first one it is 80 golfers with no cut which means they’re going to be getting four guaranteed rounds this week it’s at Pebble Beach but it’s over two different golf courses we’ll talk about that in just a second and we’ll go

Through the rest of the field the skill sets and everything else that comes with this week let’s jump into it okay one of the most famous golf courses on planet Earth Pebble Beach uh the way that this will work this year is different than previous years this used to be a three

Course rotation with the proam aspect obviously being very uh prevalent it was not a particularly strong field each and every week but that’s going to change this time around you’re going to get a stacked field obviously because of the signature designation and then you are only getting two different golf courses

This week you’re going to get Pebble Beach you’re going to get spy glass hill now each golfer will play one round at each one of those golf courses over the first two rounds there will not be a cut and then they will go back to Pebble Beach for the final two rounds so

Similar to what we did last week with the North Course and the South course at Tory Pines yet there is just no cut for this week okay uh so we’re going to focus a lot on Pebble Beach we’re going to talk through this it’s the golf

Course that has shotlink data on it we use it for the US Open so there is an additional data point and I think there’s a lot of really interesting things about it you’re looking at the correlated stats model on uh rickun good.com right now which is uh giant

Fantasy or giant golf database for Fantasy Golf and golf betting I think you should check it out um so couple of things here you’re going to you’re going to learn very quickly this is a very short course that has very small greens when you start driving it around Pebble

Beach what you realize is it’s you cannot bomb and gouge this place the way that it is uh both designed by man and by Nature there are just a lot of Landing areas in which you everybody’s going to play from right the average driving distance around Pebble Beach

Last year was 276 yards it’s the shortest on the PGA tour you just cannot hit driver everywhere everybody plays to a position so that turns into a lot of a second Shot Golf Course so when you start putting everybody in the same spot you know who tends to have success well

The ones that uh are able to get closer to the pin who are able to hit the Green from those locations than their peers that that’s obvious and the shorter shots in doesn’t actually create more missed greens uh for example this is 25th out of 54 golf courses in

Greens in regulation percent it’s right smack dab in the middle so it’s not like you’re missing a lot of greens yes they’re smaller targets but they are shorter clubs coming in the problem is when you miss the greens you are in a tricky spot this is a very difficult

Course to scramble at it’s 11th out of 54 courses in scrambling the issue is you get some tricky lies around the greens and then you also have to putt West Coast POA we talked about it last week with Tory Pines Tori was was you know basically first or second in

Difficulty on those like four to 16 foot putts basically however you want to slice it this is like third or fourth most difficult right just those those short missed putts they’re they they pop up all the time it’s it’s just a lot harder to get the ball in the hole so

Because you have to get up and down that makes the scrambling numbers uh go a little bit crazy so the way that I look at this um the second shot will be critical so you should either be a very good approach player or and or the ability to

Get a up and down a good Scrambler you can use a lot of creativity around here it makes sense that Jordan smed has had a lot of success at this golf course we’ll talk about that in just a little bit but this is a golf course that um I

Think has played a lot from I don’t even want to say from Fairway through green but basically from second shot through green is the way that this thing starts to pan out it’s why web Simpson has had a lot of success here web Simpson’s been

Um you know like he’s like the the last 10 years been like the king of of of second shot through through green so um it does make a lot of sense it will be interesting because this is going to be a much deeper field this time around

Right you’re going to have Rory Scotty sheffler’s playing for the first time like all of these guys that we haven’t seen converge here since the US Open that was 2019 a lot has happened in the last five years it’ll be interesting to break down this field and I think we

Should just go over there and jump into it okay here’s the cheat sheet at rickun good.com four golfers over $10,000 Rory mroy reads leads the the way at 11,500 Scotty Sheffer 114 Victor havin 102 and Xander shley at $10,000 even let’s talk about Rory mroy if you are only looking

At his PGA Tour numbers or if you’re looking somewhere that only has PGA Tour numbers you are missing out on a lot he has not played on the PGA tour since the Tour Championship the end of August however he’s played five times on the European tour and of course he teed it

Up at the Ryder Cup and during that stretch he’s got a seven plays finished the BMW Championship he was phenomenal at the Ridder cup a runner up at the Dubai Invitational and then he rectified that situation by winning the following week in Dubai so just a really good run

If you’re only looking at PGA Tour stats you are missing out in a big way when it comes to all these guys but right here at the top of the board with Rory Moy all that being said I’m not sure this is a particularly great spot for him right

And and the only reason I say that is you know his weapon the ability to drive like gaining you know three4 of a stroke per round to the field over the last 36 an incredible number same number as Victor havin actually it gets mitigated a little bit here now he’s still very

Good everywhere else I I I don’t think he gets enough credit for being a positive around the green player a a a well better than than average putter a very good second shot player but let’s be real here the the the biggest chunk of his Strokes gain comes from comes

From the driver and he’s not going to be able to unleash that here I still think he’s you know but you give him four guaranteed rounds um creem Rises to the top I think it’s very likely that he finishes inside the top 10 I think if you are looking to spend your money

Elsewhere there are probably better options right uh for the the cost and the fact that you know is he going to win I think it’s unlikely you know even even oddsmakers would say what his implied odds are you know 10% to win this thing so it’s unlikely that he wins

It and I think this is probably one of the um you know worst Golf Course for golf courses for him uh even if he will be able to overcome that and finish inside the top 10 now we look at the second most expensive player here Scotty Sheffer

11,400 just $100 cheaper than Rory and I think there’s a pretty good argument to be made um to probably fading both of these guys right you know look at look at Scotty first all he’s never played here before right is is that because it’s a scheduling thing he doesn’t think

That it fits his skill set what whatever the reason is the only time he’s played it was the US Open he missed the cut um we’re if we’re removing I don’t want to say remove if we’re downgrading Rory off the T play we have to downgrade Scotty

Shers off the T play that is a place where he gains a ton of of Strokes so now comes a fairway through putter uh love the second shot love the around the green play from Scotty we’ve got this big column of dark red multiple Strokes losing with the putter every single week

Going to a golf course that will really hamper those guy it’s just G it’s just it’s even harder to putt than normal there there there could be a big number lurking here for Scotty trying to putt on these surfaces so I think there’s actually a pretty strong case to

Be made to skip these two go down to havin go down to Xander I mean I think you’re going to get a lot of a lot of Victor stuff for this week you know he’s got uh good success at Pebble Beach everybody’s going to want to talk about

His his US amateur win here um but I’ll pull up his his items from uh both the US Open in 2019 where he finished T12 he lost four strokes putting that week if he putts swell who knows he might win the thing he was 400 to one that week I

Think he played it as an Amer um so 2020 he played the Pebble Beach Pro and finished t38 and then he played this event last year t13 the argument for Victor is that he is a a much better player all around now than he was at any

Point uh in this history and this is a place that he has had a decent and improving success at but I hate to say it because I I find him incredibly difficult to handicap and figure out um I think that I think that Xander is probably probably my favorite here all

Things considered the price which is the cheapest of the 10K range the concerns that you have about some of the guys at the top of the board the the perceived popularity that I have on Victor and we’ll find out you know Wednesday the live chat Rick R good YouTube channel we

We’ll have a better idea of what the projected ownership is going to be by then it kind of leaves me looking at Xander and saying yeah this this makes a lot of sense you know he finished T3 here at the US Open in 2019 he hadn’t

Played it uh except for the 2017 Pebble Beach proam he finished t66 but what he is what he does the allaround skill set right the the ability to gain everywhere is exciting I think that he opens up a lot of different paths to separate himself from the rest of the field at

This golf course and the results are I mean they’re there he doesn’t win as much as he should T9 last week where he didn’t have his best and he lost three Strokes putting T3 at the American Express which is an event that is kind of hard for some of the top players to

Win he gained five Strokes putting there so it’s not like he is incapable of doing it obviously different surfaces t 10 at the century you look at his results in you know no cut events where he just wears you down and is eventually you know he just going to gain you two

And a half Strokes to the field every single day it feels like I I think that there’s a really good path for him here the 9k range Klay Thomas SP H morawa ludvic um I have been very in on Justin Thomas um for the last couple of months

I think he’s in store for for a very big 2024 and I have really no reason to think that to to think otherwise um you know he now has one two three four straight top five finishes the ball striking is back I love the putter I will pull up his Pebble Beach

Numbers and we will see not good stuff a miscut at the US Open and a miscut in 2014 I can forgive probably each one of those right and and say okay we’ve got you know we’re five years removed from that um phenomenal short game phenomenal second shot player uh there’s not a

There is a little bit of a penalty for missing the Fairway it’s not huge as long as you can keep it out of the Fairway bunkers you’re you’re better off there um this is a really really good spot for for Justin Thomas to to separate himself from the rest of the

Field we have to talk about Jordan Speed you know when you start looking at um you know this course and and and strokes gained approach and now we can look at guys that have a you know there’s a lot of guys that have small sample sizes but Jordan SM does not 30

Rounds at this event he’s getting a stroke per round at Pebble Beach on approach so he’s been an elite elite second shot player and he possesses the short game magic it is zero surprise the the the level of success that he has had at this golf course I’ll pull it up for

You just so we can see it in real time but it’s it it makes sense when you look at what he’s done and what he is most known for about how good good these results are whoops missed one missed the US Open so let’s see uh winner in

17 9th in 2020 third in 2021 runner up in 2022 even before the win he went 21st 7th fourth so that is 1 two 3 456 top 10 finishes dating back to 10 years basically is what is what that looks like and a lot of green chunks all over the

Place he’s going to be he’s going to be very popular people are gonna be getting as much Jordan spe as they can get this week I’m really interested to see what the pivot opportunities for Max hom are 7th 14th 10th in his last three years so that seventh was his his most recent

Finish at Pebble Beach program so it was 2021 2020 and um 2019 then you start looking at skill sets and similar to Xander he’s well-rounded right you look at you look over here on the leth hand side he is better than tour average in all four major Strokes

Gain categories you can see that in his results the the the the form coming in is lowkey some of the best form in the world right he has not finished outside the top 15 since the rocket mortgage classic when he finished 21st okay that includes PGA tour he won a European Tour

Event um it includes you know so I guess I guess technically his worst result would have been the t13 at the hero because there was only 18 golfers there so that’s his worst result but the rest of them he’s gaining a ton of Strokes I’m interested if everybody wants to go

To Jordan spe Justin Thomas and it creates a little bit of a vacuum where hom is just chilling out there I’m big in big in on maxom he was in the mix I mean he was in the mix man like late like he he got off to

A really good start on Sunday uh at the farmers kind of gave it back a little bit but he gained two strokes to the field in three of his four rounds he actually played his worst at the North course he lost a stroke to the field at

The North Course which is a little bit disappointing still ends up being t13 and that was with him fading over the course of the final you know nine holes or so so I’m very very much in on Max it feels like he’s ready to um to pop off

Right now before we get into the AK range I need to remind you the the underdog best ball contests are starting soon they start with the Phoenix Open that will be here before you know it right that’s Super Bowl week we are we have our two teams that are going to be

In the Super Bowl like this is going to go quick they’ve already filled a couple of these and they’re seem to be on the verge of of of filling more um this is where you draft players and it runs from the Phoenix Open to the Open Championship and you don’t make any

Decisions and your your best scores count it’s very very cool it’s very very fun there’s a lot of good prizes for it I’ve made some videos about it um you can check my rankings I’ve been updating my rankings I dropped down Terell Hatton and Adrian Moran I flew up Wills how

Taurus I like what I’m seeing there so like I’ve been updating my rankings I made a video about it uh what I asked is if you go play and you go sign up use the code Rick or use the code or the link in the description because that

Will help me it’ll help you to get you a $100 100% uh deposit bonus up to 100 bucks I believe and just helps everybody so I think I I think I’m going to just I mean I’ve been in a lot of these I’m just going to

Continue to fire away because this is a a really really good format okay the 8K range very interesting stuff here we got Tony fow correct last week right we we were trying to be early on Tony we looked at Tory Pines and said yeah this is probably a really good spot for him

Uh he played well and he finished T6 which is his best result in a while okay so we were right on Tony despite him not close losing it out that’s okay winning is hard yada y y this is um not so much of a great spot form him I still think

I’m more bullish than bearish but the the putting stroke looks miserable the stats back it up the eye test and the stats are aligned on this one um I think it’s just going to be a lot harder for him to separate himself you know he doesn’t get to drive it like a madman

Wherever he wants anymore it’s just I I think this is GNA be a tough spot um probably GNA take a a smaller stance on ph now in the immediate short term and then we’ll kind of check up with him in a couple weeks but I think I’m I think

I’m still on the bullish side worth noting that Camy young did play the Dubai Desert Classic finished third he kind of probably should have won that event um did not play well on on Sunday and and then Rory snuck up and and and stole it from him um I want to look at

Tom Kim right because Tom Kim missed the cut of the American Express he lost the two and a half Strokes putting he lost five at the Sentry I am now uh at least a little bit worried about that but if we can get a little

Bit of a reset here a short golf course that rewards second shot play uh a good short game and good putting should be the set the skill set that that that plays well for Tom Kim the seven and a half sharks that he’s lost putting in

His last what is that seven rounds is a huge concern we have not seen him really we’ve seen him lose a couple week okay one other wow one other time and it started the century again and then he lost 6.6 at the Sony it’s weird that it was both kind of

In the start in January but we have not really seen him play this or putt this poorly for a two we stretch before um or a two start stretch it was technically over multiple weeks I’m willing to try to catch him early if we were going somewhere else where if we

Were going to Rocket mortgage I wouldn’t be interested because we’re going to Pebble I think I have to be at least a little bit interested now maybe the most disrespected golfer here is Tommy Fleetwood and again if you are looking solely at PGA Tour stats you see a t47

At the century and a T6 at the Tour Championship and you’re thinking who cares right well I care because in the meantime since since the Tour Championship sixth at the BMW PGA was great at the Ryder Cup he finished 12th at the nedbank golf challenge runner up

At the DP World Tour Championship he won the Dubai Invitational beat Rory right and then finished T14 at the Dubai Desert Classic so Tommy’s playing Great Golf if we look at the power rankings I bet you I haven’t done this yet but if we look at every rounds from all over

Last 50 rounds minimum 24 I bet you Tommy’s a top six player Oh is six wow okay so Tommy the sixth best player in the world actually tied with ludvic the tied for fifth best player in the world over the last 50 rounds is $8600 now I realize there are strength

Of field things JT poon is actually fourth um this is raw Strokes gain we’ll get to JT posting in a second but Tommy Fleetwood at 8600 bucks is obviously very good and I’m excited to get him four guaranteed rounds it’s not like his driving distance is a

Weapon for him every single week so this is a really cool spot to deploy Tommy the 7K range let’s just let’s just start with JT JT Poston the other JT you can run out both jts here um you know looked at the power rankings fourth best player

In the world over over the last 50 rounds that’s raw Strokes gained now he is doing it look at how he does it almost exclusively via the short game categories 1.2 uh Strokes gained in the short game categories which is around the green plus putting that is uh second to only

Brian Haron who is $7,600 in this range uh excuse me in this field H he does play well on approach and where does he lose it all off the team okay um not sure I really care about that so we’ve got a this is this is the one week that I

Would be sorting B by The Strokes gain short game metrics and saying wow that’s really interesting and it’s not a flash in the pan type deal where if you look at what he’s done it’s a bunch of top 10 finishes right so we’ve got uh t11 at

The American Express sixth fifth then he finished 44th at the RSM at the last end of last year third at Shriners 22nd at the BMW Championship I mean he hasn’t missed a cut since the traveler he’s not going to have to worry about that this

Week but it’s a lot of top 10 top 15 finishes generally the only place he loses is off the tea I do not think that it’s going to be an issue it’s actually a little bit surprising that he hasn’t played here more frequently he’s played

Here twice I think it was 2017 2016 um finished like t60 both times nothing super crazy but wow shouldn’t this be one of the better spots on tour form I actually think Brian Harman is similar right Brian Haron has more upside than JT Poston he

Is he is good on and around the greens uh short shots in yes he’s going to lose off the te for sure but who cares uh his history at Pebble let’s pull that up real quick see what we can find here uh let’s see okay played here in 2022 MDF

Remember that played here in 2021 t39 M has this is like a lot like um is it Sea Island for Brian where it’s like why doesn’t he play better here maybe it just doesn’t fit his eye even though the course fit is pretty good oh by the way course fit um

I wanted to show you this course fit for JT posting so this this this disregards any history this just says what skill sets does he have in the last 24 36 whatever number of rounds you want to do and how does it compare to the things

That have success at this golf course um Poston is fifth right so fifth best adjusted fit this course boosts him more than everybody but four golfers is is is the way to read that this is a week of of forgive and forget forgive Tom Kim right click his name forgive Eric Cole missing

The cut at the farmers it’s not a very good spot for him this is a much better spot for him finished 15th year last year right let him let him let him back in your lineups uh Nick Taylor at 7200 has won this event each of the last two

Years he’s finished inside the top 20 I think he’s uh better now than he’s ever been saw that the Seventh Place finish at the Sony he missed the cut the American Express I don’t care about that one single bit um generally he is uh inaccurate off the te that’s fine he

Hits a ton more or not a ton more but he hits more greens than a lot of his peers 71% in his last 36 rounds hit the green or tap into a decent short game uh I I like the way Nick Taylor sets up for

This even if I removed even if I looked at the last two years and forgot about the win that he had in 2020 I think I’d be pretty interested in Nick Taylor here if you look out the breakout candidates tool which is on the the trends um the

Trends tool so what this looks at is how golfers are playing compared to their 100 round Baseline how they’re doing it if they’re getting lucky putting if they’re you know if if if they basically keep hitting it the way they are and their putting gets back to their average

Who has the most juice to squeeze out of this and the answer is Nick Hardy Adam Fenson Brandon woo Sam Ryder Alex nor and Keith Mitchell that type of golfer Eric Cole’s up there as well um then you get guys who are kind of in the next best quadrant which would be

Like your mad McNeely who has great success at this event Kevin Yu um sah s sahith uh Taylor Montgomery Eric Van royan we can talk about Kevin Yu for a second because he’s also in this uh mid mid 7K range he is s $7,200 I don’t know what has gotten into

Him but I’m paying attention to it he was the king of team no putt he was our captain we loved him but now we have we probably have to say goodbye to him because he’s putting too well and I would say the last two are the big

Coming out parties right so he’s gained over 22 Strokes to the field in his last eight rounds he had only gained like 16 total Strokes to the field in his first 89 rounds on the PGA tour in his career so he has done more damage in eight

Rounds two weeks of mxx and Farmers Insurance open than he did in the entirety of his crew and I’ll say it’s actually been four starts where he has putted much better so just kind of look at these results um you know lose four five six Strokes

Putting he only loses you know less than one it was one measured round at RSM classic he misses the cut misses the cut at Sony but putts better loses a half a stroke then he putts a little bit better at the American Express gains about a

Half a stroke and then he has you know the the the the great putting week three Strokes with the putter at Farmers that is four above average starts for him with the flat stick and he doesn’t lose anything in the ball striking categories I see why he’s kind of in this breakout

Opportunity I do think that there is a lot of upside in Kevin Yu you might he might lose five Strokes pck I have no idea but I think this is enough of a trend that we’ve got to be taking it seriously as opposed to just saying hey

This is uh flash in the pan anybody else here um I think seep Str is pretty interesting I I worry the short game is not good enough uh but he’s accurate off the te he’s not very long which doesn’t matter great approach player good putter High upside though he has gotten way

More consistent in the last couple of months than he’s ever been in his career I worry that if he is missing greens uh he will bleed shots around the green the 6K range starts with Nick Dunlap right so fresh off the victory turns Pro here we go we are starting you’ll be decked

Out with all of his logos I’ll wait and see right what’s the what’s the rush what’s the rush on Nick Don lapi $6,900 I will wait and see uh Taylor Montgomery deserves a deep dive here it’s probably been enough starts that we’ve got to start uh hat tipping Montgomery here continues to be

A great putter has he struck it well at the RSM Struck it great at the Sony good enough at the American Express wasn’t very good at the farmers but gets around to a t13 a decent result there um again this week I’m relying on short games a

Lot more than usual so here we are short game specialist who’s hit it better than his 100 100 round Baseline in the last four or five starts I think this is reasonable to consider Taylor Montgomery for this week Ben Griffin was also one of the guys that really fit this course

Well thanks to th those those short game gains especially with the putter he did miss the cut at the farmers not a great course for him but finished Ninth at the American Express 30th at the Sony e at the RSM classic like he’s he’s been playing better than what we saw at the

Farmers and that’s just a really really bad spot for him I suspect he’ll be popular but uh it is it is time to get salary cap relief with Maverick MCN at $6,200 you know $200 more than the minimum he is healthy he’s coming off the t37 at the farmers in which he gains

Strokes everywhere but on approach he is a PO specialist he’s a short game specialist he is a Pebble Beach specialist and we’re getting better more consistent play from him now that he’s back so I um I think he’s going to be popular everybody knows his connections to to this course

Finished fifth and and runner up uh four years ago and three years ago again healthy this this is one of the better one of the better spots for him and I would prefer him over some of these other guys right you know uh web Simpson is is is what web Simpson is probably

Trending downwards Sheamus power who should have won this event was it last year the year before kind of trending downwards a little bit Sam Ry or Peter malady are you super excited about these guys on this golf course maveri mcne $6,200 and I think that is worth um

Worth the salary cap relief to especially Pile in some of those guys at the top okay let’s run a model here custom model rickun good.com let’s do a couple of items here um I’m not even going to do anything off the T like who cares right I will do strokes gained

Approach okay so I will do and I’ll split this up so I will do uh Strokes gain approach last 24 rounds for 10 then I will do some approach like shorter approach buckets like um eight on 100 to 125 eight on 125 to 150 those will be my

Approach buckets and I will also do um five on greens gained so that’s greens and regulation gained uh the green is going to be important this week around the green we’re going to put 15 on scrambling we are going to put um 10 on putting on Bermuda we are also or excuse

Me poana I put it in the right spot I said it wrong we are going to do course history for 15 I think it’s pretty important we’ll do short golf courses for 10 we’ve got 19 left I will also Al double up just a little bit on uh Strokes gain

Around the green I know I know I’ve already done scrambling but longterm around the green for five last 50 we’ve got 14 left I could do bogey avoidance for seven and F and implied odds for seven number one golfer we are terribly screwed Eric Cole

Wow I get it makes sense Klay 2 9700 bucks Xander three okay so it is interesting to see that Xander you know beats Rory beats Scotty those guys are five and six respectively beats Victor who’s four so they’re all up there but uh it actually has them

In well it’s not reverse order it’s Xander Victor Rory Scotty from three through six spe is seven yep Justin Rose who’s won this event has played well here eighth look at Adam hadwin you know as I was clicking through I don’t think I mentioned his name but I did see his

Name a lot a hadwin gets the ninth rank good iron player um is not going to be penalized for his driving hits the short irons well he’s ninth Jason day is 10th yeah look at fenal 12 that’s that’s probably about right gets up to 22nd at 7600 Chris Kirk gets up there where’s

Like mcne the problem with mcne is his stuff is so bad he like you’re almost going have to force him into lineups because he had a stretch of just he was injured like the miserable stuff that he was injured with really interesting okay cool well I

Love that that’s that’s a lot of fun and gave us some uh uh interesting results oh before I forget uh the contest on Splash that we’ve been doing every week it it is now guaranteed so 220 spots for this week $20 entry you just pick one golfer from each tier um these payouts

Are guaranteed so it’s going to be 800 bucks for first they’re going to pay 25 spots no matter how many people get into this I would prefer to fill it so that we can just keep growing these and getting them guaranteed but they liked the response so um they are now

Guaranteed events which is which is nice click the link in the description go go sign up it’s it’s very very simple to where a one and done is anyway so if you’re entering your picks for the one and done you might as well put your tiers contest in as well okay um just

Checking one more time see if there’s any information about uh Terell Hatten officially I do not see it we’ll see uh talk to you guys on Wednesday best of luck see y