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Let’s talk about this week and outrights speaking of a wild weekend Patrick I really like your first pick here you’ve talked about him as Mr California so this is he’s won I believe at three of the four California courses on tour but he hasn’t won at this one I would say
He’s due yep three of the four four wins overall out of his half dozen on the PGA tour Max 18 to one the thing I like about Max is he can kind of get it done in multiple ways he can get it done with the irons if the short game is needed
And it’s a scrappy week because of the weather we’ve seen him come through at a wet windy rainy TPC pomac when he won the Wells Fargo Championship as well and we can see him get really hot with the putter especially on poana it kind of betrayed him a little bit there at the
Farmers but I I like him to bounce back I like the work he’s putting in so H’s the pick at 18 to1 I do love colum morawa this week at 20 to1 I love the course fit I know the history isn’t there I’m fine with him missing the cut
Last week after 18 poor holes that happens to everyone even call him morawa e the issue I do have where I guess some hesitation is morawa does struggle in weather oh he’s an Open championship winner it was a good weathered Open Championship he is not necessarily the
Most creative player in the world but if you give him a ton of wedge opportunities he is number one from 50 to 100 yards top five from 100 to 150 over a long term so I’m willing to take a risk I know it’s a steep price at 20
To1 but I do see some value in it it’s just the weather that’s making me a little uh more hesitant than I should be well I and I totally get that I’m hesitant because I watched that back nine at Tory Pines on Friday or on Thursday and I was ready to throw
Something at my TV because I had an outright on Colin morawa who was five under after the first day thinking all right it’s time to go catch Hoy Gard whoever else was up there on the board and instead he’s going backwards hitting shots that were not good can he bounce
Back this week at that at that price okay you know what I’ll take your word for it you know your stuff I’m rolling with it now counselor you’re picking a couple of guys that haven’t won in a while so they’re trying to get off the schneide here JT at 25 to1 it’s an
Appealing price why do you like them this week yeah 25 to1 22 to1 in certain places I noticed B MGM still has him at 25 to1 other places at 22 so try to shot your lines try to get the best line so shout out to joshu Lucero in the chat he
Says JT right on C I was thinking the same thing so JT is one of those guys I mean to a much lesser extent I talked about this well really with almost everybody I talked about but when I was talking about Brandon woo like just real
Quick I’m not making a comp here but Brandon woo in DFS he’s just one of those guys that like to me getting four rounds like he knowing that the game the recent form is really trending like I think he could be a good DFS play can he
Win the tournament no Justin Thomas he’s trending in the same way the approach game appears to be back the short game is there he’s going to be dialed in with the wedges like Patrick alluded to earlier in the show and so I think the price is too long I don’t think the
Market has caught up to where Justin Thomas’s game actually is I I like not to say that this is some gross misprice but I think Justin Thomas probably should be in the like 22 to one like he is in certain places maybe even 18 to one I know this is a completely packed
Field but I think this is a good course fit for Justin Thomas I think is trending in in a major way not just like a soft Trend I think this like we’re really seeing something from Justin Thomas great course fit great Trend like
The number at 25 to1 Tony fow is a guy I never bet I truly never bet it he always and that just might might be a like a me thing like I just never get Tony F now right with that said now that his number
Has crept all the way to 40 to one I have to consider it last week he was pretty underwhelming like t69 but on approach gaining 4.56 and really on approach over the last I mean it’s been a while he’s been really good on approach where he’s been kind of Miss is
With the Putter and we saw that last week he lost a bunch of Strokes with the putter but with these POA greens and especially with these weather conditions and and the wet greens like I think it’s really tricky to evaluate who’s going to be successful on these greens so I do
Think Tony F now can rebound I he did just gain putting two tournaments ago four tournaments ago it hasn’t been there for him but it wouldn’t shock me at all if it gets there and if it does when you consider his approach play and is is typically good around the green
Play I think 40 to1 is again this is a guy that probably should be in like that 32 33 to1 range I’m catching him at 40 now I can finally bet Tony F out with some peace of mind that’s fair enough makes sense to me Patrick question from
The chat from Josh the tney goes only three days is that benefit longer odds golfers or top tier guys probably longer odd golfers because Sundays on the PGA tour in general are just a completely different beast and I hate to bring them up cuz because I have
A soft spot for him but look at someone like Tommy Fleetwood who has a one tour and how often he’s been close but hasn’t been been able to close on Sunday so it’ll be interest interesting to see how they handle the announcement you know right if it’s just going to be they
Finish three rounds and then after the fact they say we can’t play anymore or if it’s going to be a before fact type of deal it’s uh it’s a weird week just all around do you have to like make sure everybody understands if they joined us
Late we’re not saying with any sort of like definition that this is only going to go three rounds we’re just kind of speculating based on all the stuff we talked about at the beginning of the show it could obviously very well go the 72 holes yeah by the way Tommy Fleetwood
Is on my list of can’t bet him to win outright after watching what happened at the RBC Canadian open last year when Nick Taylor you know ran him down and Fleetwood had so many opportunities even in the playoff he’s on my can’t bet it on top list yeah but EC you can’t do
That to him because Nick Taylor like what was that like a 71 foot P but still he should have won like holes beforehand yeah Tommy yeah you’re bringing up like all my uh skeletons right now it’s it’s unbeliev he he was minus 500 on the 18th
T yeah no yeah yeah yeah was golf betting is some of the most painful experiences when it comes to to it is I mean there’s you know you you watch a football game or a basketball game and you lose on the last second shot but you invest four days in the golf tournament
And you get all the way down I mean if you had Meo Pereira at the what was it 2022 uh PG or 20 was it 2021 or 2022 PGA Championship and and yeah and then he just collapses on the 18 I had him I had
A live bet on Meo at that point and the dude hits it in the wilderness and then double Bogies doesn’t even make a playoff like you can’t ever bet that guy to win again even on live he just he’s not going to win it just he doesn’t have
It you know last week what we saw joerger I mean he just wasn’t he’s a guy down the stretch I’m just personally I need to see something before I pick him to win that just my take on it uh see David talk has a question or he brought
Up a great bet actually a parlay uh on on our chat here Rory mroy Xander shley Max hom top 20 at plus 290 do you like the odds for those three combined no such thing as a great three-leg parlay that’s my answer I mean listen I think
It’s fine I would never that like to one like one of those three guys we’re talking about the top 20 Market this is like full of talent really like down the board uh one of those three guys has a mstep I mean don’t get me wrong plus 290
Is a really nice number I just generally don’t bet those if you want to put two in a parlay I get that three I think you’re pushing it when it comes to golf which there’s just so much variance C is not going to want to hear my uh my one
Of my long shot bets uh oh but let me get to my outrights here I’m going I know Patrick was fading him earlier I’m going Jordan spe here at plus two at plus two 2000 so 20 to1 uh you can you know shop around 18 to1 is where I’ve
Seen him but 20 to1 is the best number as we talked about a win in six top 10 and 12 appearances at Pebble Beach he gained six Strokes on the green to finish third at the Sentry as Patrick mentioned and this just one of those courses where I would blindly bet Jordan
SPI and the other one where you blindly bet him well I guess there’s two of them Augusta National and then uh Harbortown right afterwards he’s just great at all three of them the history horse for the course I know he’s going to be high owned in DFS I’m putting my money where
My mouth is on Jordan Speed I also but if you were to ask my oneandone my top pick this week it’s Matt Fitzpatrick you can get him as high as plus 3500 you know when he uh played here in 2019 he had a T12 he was T6 at this event in
2022 he excels on link style and Coastal courses and he also excels on courses with small green complexes so a few of those courses where let’s say the greens are smaller than most Harbor toown where he won last year the country club remember the 2022 us open which you won
In Pebble Beach wouldn’t you say he’s due to complete the trifecta at that price sign me up I’m good with that
