Ben Rasa and Eric Lindquist go over the best PGA DFS picks for the The Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024. The guys will go over how they’re handling this DFS golf tournament and building their DraftKings and FanDuel PGA lineups.
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I’m going to countdown you you never seen Beverly Hills Ninja I’ve seen Beverly Hills Ninja I know you have because you’re a normal person Jordan K come on man what get with it come on we got to be better than that we’re going to be better than that here on PGA DFS
Strategy show I promise you want to welcome everybody in little Pebble Beach proam 2024 uh hurricanes non- Cuts 80 man Fields not Beverly Hills Ninja I wish we were talking about that our producer of this show has not seen that movie very very and he said he’s a big
Fan of Chris Farley I don’t really understand that but we’re gonna get into it we’re gonna showcase the values in the tools build out some lineups give some hot takes recap Farmers we got it all going on on Raa Eric linquist joins me you should have seen what he did to
Get here you had to fight through screens and broken wires and everything but you’re here you’re looking crisp ready to go got the Viking shirt how you feel yeah yeah like a loser sporting my losing team that will never ever make me happy oh yeah there you go uh how’s the
Iran soccer game going good uh yeah I had to I had to leave it it was in extra time Iran was manned down yes Chris Rock also in Beverly Hills Ninja sure Elite movie um we’re gon to get into it let’s get it started friends I see you all in
Chat appreciate you hit that like button subscribe this Channel all those good things let’s build up I know golf hasn’t really got there but wait till the Super Bowl and waste management which is next and now we’re gonna we’re going to start getting real dangerous but we do have
The Pebble Beach program I want to look backwards at Farmers uh you know we saw pretty cool event no not really um it’s been a crazy string of winners a crazy string of Big Time triple digit winners what were your thoughts if any of what
We saw uh last week I liked none of it it was not fun um I had I mean obviously the morawa Klay at the top would have been nice to have either of them show up over the weekend specifically can’t lay in one lineup That Could Have salvaged
My weekend the only one with the Frenchmen in it but um it was just another guy from the clouds and this is starting to be a thing obviously nice to have it be a professional golfer who ended up winning uh as opposed to an amateur who comes out from the clouds to
Take your uh Bez W from you but I mean it’s just it’s just been brutal here in the early going of it I know we have like the live discourse we have everything going on you know with the PGA tour now they’re going to be privately backed and and have you know
Some some funding coming in people that hopefully can Infuse a little bit of life here into the tour but uh a really strange deal to go from Chris Kirk to Grayson Murray uh to I mean just what are we doing here I don’t know I don’t know and yeah joerger was up there
Certainly battling for us joer was joerger I felt so freaking good about he was the only so there were three bets last week and I was like jger was the obvious one he was my highest own golfer still just ended up getting wrecked because you know couldn’t find
His way to the top and enough people were on the Frenchman enough people were on other pieces up top that it didn’t really give me any differentiation at the end of the week which just sucked I hear you I was in the same boat had fow
As well right there and I just couldn’t get the right concept now in the end it didn’t matter because my Pavone teams were not useful uh so I was maybe the morawa thing wouldn’t have HT as bad I was very upset that he missed that cut
He killed some things I got my hole in one for the first time in like six years with deyy yeah I that was my first week playing Dey and I’m like oh I’m run to the top and then on Sunday I ended up maxing out Showdown and Shane Lowry I
Have 0% and he double eal I’m like what are we doing here what are we doing it was just an awful week when it came down to it I was just like on the wrong side of everything even though I felt like I was on the right side I had tons of
Shane Lowry in week long but it didn’t matter it didn’t matter for the week long and that’s where we are we turned the page but we’re gonna get into it now now I want to say right off the bat the proam this is a weird weird situation
And it’s different than what we had normally seen we used to talk about a triple course rotation this is only two courses three Pebble one spy glass and this is a non-cut now an elevated event it’s very very different let’s talk about the courses though postal par 72
Short wind potentially talk to me about what you’re seeing as we start to dive into this field yeah so the number one thing that I’m going to throw out that I think I’m going to be the only person who has said so far on a show I listened
To a lot of podcasts uh this this morning went through a lot of my work started my work a little bit later than I normally do cu the NBA streets they’ve been brutal with injury news here lately but um from a golf perspective this morning I just there’s no draw there’s
No tea time draw there’s not because you have you’re you could maybe have a course draw that you could pay attention to but the idea that there’s a tea time draw the tea times only go from 8:45 to 10:33 local time we’re talking less than a 2-hour window now maybe you get
Absolute Hurricane Katrina come through at some point in time and it becomes a deal for one wave of it but that feels unlikely because I feel like the entire Golf Course is going to be exposed for every like you’re going to get the same draws on those golf courses
So I see more of a golf course draw where maybe a golf course plays easier in this wave as opposed to the other so I’m being very specific with weather draws so that’s the first thing because the the weather on Sunday looks apocalyptic there’s no question about it
I have play they I I think they’re going to have to play 36 or they might have to do something where they just cancel it out ahead of time and just say we’re going to play 54 holes come Friday like those are your really only two options there’s only 80
Golfers so 36 is in play if they tee off at like 7 a.m. local time for everybody but if that’s five hours five hours on each side of it they don’t have enough daylight to finish it up on Saturday I think that’s the biggest concern for
Pebble all day there for Saturday but um Sunday looks apocalyptic if they’re playing golf Sunday you’re going to get some weirdness just doesn’t even make sense I doubt they can play Monday doesn’t look a hell of a lot better but it looks playable as long as the course
Isn’t crazy crazy wet which it should be anyway but uh obviously everybody’s talking about the weather as they should be but luckily for me my best friend in the entire world Matt pretty lives up north there in Selenas which is about 15 20 minutes outside of montere so we got
Boots on the ground this week I’m going to be paying attention to that jumping in the Discord if there’s anything going on in terms of like crazy wind weather he’s going to be out at the golf course uh I know that he used to cadd there he
Got into real estate but he used to caddy over at Pebble Beach uh and and spy glass and all of these tracks so he has a ton of familiarity I caddied for him when he played in the tailor made Invitational which split between those two courses as well um they had spy
Glass and and Pebble in the rotation for that so a lot of experience that I have being up there I’ve never played uh those golf courses I qualified for us fourball up at Poppy Hills with my fourball partner but uh love the region love the GOL course is just I’m telling
You ahead of time this weather is going to be so hostile that for me one I don’t know how I go about betting this event I have no idea if you have ideas let me know um but two from a DFS perspective there are no tea time waves there are
Golf Course waves that’s the only thing that I can think of yeah I think what’s gonna happen and I get why we’re all paying attention to the weather because you should but at the end of the day I also think we got to remember that’s probably more of a factor on Sunday we
Got a bunch of golf before then that these guys are going to play and I’m going to treat it pretty straight up because you mentioned this is a small field it’s a non-cut uh there’s a lot going on there and we’ve got a huge amount of bigname players so I don’t
Know I’ll be honest I think it’s a normal week with just extreme not that there’s not a lot of variant in any golf week there’s just more this week you’re G to see some really weird stuff like you said I don’t think you can really plan for it because you just don’t even
Know where your golfer would be positioned as the weather comes in in terms of where he is on the board I I think you just play it pretty straight up yeah I think you play it straight up um the one as I said I think I might try
Like a golf course like a nuanced Golf Course draw where pebble’s playing easier or you know if they end up Thursday the weather doesn’t look great Tomorrow there’s an opportunity for potential you know late start stuff where they have to switch golf courses on Friday which is just an insane thing
To think about with only 80 players as opposed to a full field that they normally have up here should make it easier limited number of AMS should make it easier up here it is going to still be very wonky it’s still going to have its nuances you know only 36 that you
Have to deal with the ERS for this one there will be none of them on the weekend although it would have been fun to watch like Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers play golf on Sunday here that would have been incredible um would have been a complete disaster too but as I look at
The board for me uh the idea of a tea time draw isn’t what people think it is if people are talking about that on other other shows they don’t know what they’re talking about let’s get into the board let’s start looking at these players because again you’re going to
Have I mean you got Rory and Sheffer havin Xander these are big name players best in the world uh that are here at least and we’re ready to look at them you’re gonna have options of how you dive in obviously we’ve got our tools from lineup generator to Sims we’re
Going to put them on the screen have some fun with it what are you drawn to up top I know Rory hasn’t been uh you know teeing it up up but is he where you’re drawn to Sheffer and his putter how do you go about sorting out the top
So Rory’s probably got the best form of anybody coming into this I mean he went over uh he had back-to-back events out there in Dubai finished second with which was like an apocalypse on 18 to lose to Fleetwood and then he just steamrolled dudes the next week so uh
Goes second first out in Dubai R he always plays well this is going to be very very different and obviously the golf course uh both Pebble Beach and spy glass both kind of neutralize what he’s good at which is just bombing it off the tea and setting yourself up to just
Wedge it all over the place and and and just smack people around that way Pebble Beach does have that Nuance where you know it’s the closest proximity to the hole that you see on tour because it’s the smallest greens that you run into on tour it’s very very difficult to hit
These things and you’re going to have people who just wedge it and putt it really really well and you don’t get those those type of plays that uh you know it’s never a bad thing to hit it far I think I’ve said that back since like the Bryson D Shambo is doing these
Shows with you for for three plus years but it’s still one of those things where I would love to have a golf course that that fits that more for Rory but still he’s putting the ball well he just got done with some great form overseas in decent Fields fields that probably
Looked pretty comparable to what we just saw in Tory pin so uh getting up to Rory at 115 I don’t completely hate the idea I would say between him and Sheffer I mean where do you see this ownership Landing between the two of them because that’s going to be a debate have you
Can’t play both I think that that’s just out of the question but I want to find myself onto a little bit more Rory mroy considering you know you’ve got Scotty sheffler who fits the golf course mold a little bit more but in small field if we see like a three to1 ownership disparity
Or a two to1 ownership disparity I think that’s pretty live to happen yeah I agree uh I don’t know how big it’ll be I do think there will be some and again the the tools will update as we get closer to lock and we’re going to see
That I’m with you though I mean I’m always kind of team Rory I think that what he did quietly a little bit over you know on the DPT and everything he looks good the other guy though I mean again there’s a million but hlin caught
My eye in my first Sims run yeah he looked good he does a lot of what Rory does naturally they remind me of the same player at times we’ve seen him take on challenging conditions and be fine havins around the green game has improved it’s still not good but it’s
Improved what about starting with havin and omitting the big two yeah I mean I the one recurring theme that I heard on multiple shows this week multiple podcasts did you know Victor hoflin won the US ameter at Pebble Beach it’s like no [ __ ] very aware uh obviously this is going to be very
Different as far as a setup from what you get any a USG event I think something like that uh even us amers is somebody who’s played in us uh mid amps you know i’ I’ve played in those before golf courses are completely different setups uh than anything else you’ll face
If you hit it in the rough you’re dead you’re toast here that’s not the case you can hit it in the rough and you can still get it close and you know obviously with the rain that’s a question but the way this golf course is
Set up um I think it’s going to open it up a little bit more to guys that aren’t as accurate as what a Victor havland is and that’s where I get a little bit concerned that it might be a little bit more of a punting Fest and short game
Fest and we know the chipping is still the Bugaboo here for Victor havland and I feel like he can just go out and put on a ball striking master class but I am very worried that he ends up by far by far the most popular in this range I
Know the ownership doesn’t have that but he’s 10 to he allows for you to build you know more uh quote unquote like balanced builds even though most people go stars and scrubs on these kind of weeks but Victor havland he’s got 21.6% ownership currently and Scotty sheffer’s
Got a little bit more I’d actually be surprised for 1,200 less if people didn’t land on more Victor havin because one he has good course history here who this is just a a dude who it’s hard for me to find him like live to burn you
Over the course of four rounds here but because there’s no cut I think I’m going to probably be dropping down elsewhere yeah and and again I’m I’m completely fine I’m gonna put havin in the pool I’m not sure I’ll be able to get over but
That’s going to be a field thing yep um so I’m gonna look at that which course is easier and is as big of a deal as North versus South last week I don’t think it’s as big a deal I think spy glass has shown that it’s tougher um but
The elements will determine that I don’t think it’s nearly as drastic as the north versus the South though so one thing I will say and this is just having you know caded in pretty bad conditions out there um for that it was like a November round when I was cading at spy
Glass but um the one thing I do remember one of the local caddies saying was that pebble is harder when it’s crazy windy spy glass is easier when it’s or sorry uh so it’s harder when it’s super windy compared to spy glass spy glass is a little bit easier because you get wind
Off the ocean on a couple of longer par fours but then the inverse is basically true where you know Pebble Beach is much easier in clear conditions now we’re going to get bubble golf on Friday Saturday it’s going to be pretty easy uh relative it should be uh mitigated wind
It should be very very soft and so I think spy glass will probably play harder for the Friday round uh is kind of the way that I’m viewing it maybe by like a shot shot and a half but um spy glass traditionally has a little bit
More teeth to it than what you get at Pebble Beach yeah absolutely through work down again there’s going to be a bunch of big names Xander C JT spe who we tie him to Pebble Beach for good reasons one here before Max H the California guy morawa aerg talk to me
About the nines I like JT I’m Gonna Save him for a hot take later but I’ll just say I do like him if it gets nasty who else do you like or who do you see in the nines as showing some potential leverage everybody um I don’t know how
To parse through this I think this is kind of what makes this tournament difficult for me is like I can make a case for everybody in the 9k range and like I just know the ownership is going to gravitate heavily towards shefer and havland and so I kind of find myself
Wanting to to get down here roster I mean JT 2.5% optimal percentage in Top Golf for stol that can’t be correct because JT’s form has been much better like just even watching him play in the desert I feel so much better about JT going forward because he comes from a
Lineage of professional golfers he’s somebody who hasn’t always had it at times but like he always finds a way back and the putter was really kind of the question mark for him it disappeared off the face of the Earth and then all of a sudden the driver disappeared and
Then all of a sudden his superpower his irons just kind of disappeared and you were like what the hell do we do with JT I think we can all kind of rest assured that he’s somewhat back at 9600 and I want to be early to the party on these
Kind of things so I also feel like Jordan spe with the ability that he has to play in adverse conditions to uh he has obviously really good course history here plays in this almost every year with the AT&T sponsorship uh didn’t last year but still for the most part you’re
Seeing Jordan spe out here all the time and then Max homea 9200 is just too damn cheap colum morawa the iron specialist like as I said there’s like a case to be made for everybody in the 9k range I think my plan of attack is probably to
Remove a lot of the ownership of havin shafley the way that people have it currently in large field and gravitate towards these 9k guys and be overweight to two maybe three of them I think kle is probably the guy who ends up getting squeezed purely because you know 9700 if
I’m looking to combine multiple pieces he’s probably the guy who gets steamed up the most I do like kind of messing around with a JT Homa start or something like that uh you that’s my single entry right now by the way yeah I love that I love
That you have so many flexible options you can dip into the sixes you can land in the sevens you can do a lot it grades out nicely again we’re putting the Sims on the screen because it’s one of the many things here at stochastic that for making people a lot of money Millie
Winners the man I’m doing the show with had a big NBA win uh it’s the same technology for PGA now we’ve got it for golf um yeah I would start I would look to start single entries if you’re gonna go get Rory I think there’s no problem
With that if you don’t I would start with JT I like JT a lot this week uh but I want to keep going down a little bit to your boy Sam Burns Tony fenale Fleetwood who you mentioned with Rory was doing some things overseas ham young
Is that someone who can use his driver to an advantage here what do you think about the upper eights it’s tough I I right now think the upper eights probably just don’t fall for me outside of Fleetwood like I’m going to get a lot of Fleetwood at 8600 um that’s just the
Around the green approach putter kind of spectacular spectacular I mean he is he’s one of those guys also that it feels like Open Championship style like brutality he’s somebody that I feel like I’ve always seen wearing a beanie always see just like out there grinding making like he’s somebody who will fight for
Your money a little bit and I kind of like that I don’t know if I can really get to my guy Sam Burns this week I was obviously very much there at the American Express felt really really good about that but this is just this is one
Where feels like he ends up falling by the wayside for me I’d probably fire up a little bit more fow or Cameron young but it feels like fleetwood’s the only guy that I’m really got any kind of uh any kind of a stamps on only guy that I
Have double digits of out of my first 150 when you look at uh yeah certainly you know that I’m a big Tommy Fleetwood guy zi grades out really nice we’ll see how things update but I’m with you the bottom of the eights is really interesting though you’ve got Jason day
Decki who’s shown some form Fitzy who I think fits nasty conditions H guard who’s been up there Tom Kim and Benny on Benny on is not overpriced because he’s been playing really well but he’s obviously priced to the premium to me Fitzy is the guy I want to ask you about
The most of what you think but what do you think of this range yeah I love Fitzy again I feel like I’m building for a US Open um which is weird like I I don’t feel like it’s going to play difficult like that but it’s almost like
These are the kind of guys that that just have that iron around the green you know put the ball in play just kind of plot it around to to you know off the te if it’s going to be difficult in that regard if if you know it’s not going to
Be 50° with the wind and you know you have to be bombing a driver on a couple of different holes like I just trust Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick so much more than the rest of this range in adverse conditions now I I actually wanted ask you about Jason day because
This is the guy that I’m thinking about absolutely jamming here and I don’t really know if I can stomach it he’s one of those pieces that he has the higher ball flight but you look at like PGA championships Coast line he’s played well at like a whistling straights in
Adverse conditions he’s played well at different times where it just I go back to like Connecticut two years ago I think it was or Boston one of the two where it was just rainy awful wet and Jason day was out there just grinding putting up numbers and I think Jason day just
8,400 I think him Sun JM like I’m just kind of gravitating middle lower eights here for a lot of these pieces probably not Hideki for me this week probably not Nikolai hogard because it just seems like he’s the new uh he’s the new golfer dour golfer what French for a week I
Don’t know it just seems like every week people want to play Nikolai hogard just because he had so much artificial ownership last week it was a little shocking at the end I thought I was being sneaky but um what do you think about lower eights so there’s no doubt
That fit is the priority everything I I think he checks out great The Sims love him everything seems all systems go guy I’m struggling with the most of Tom Kim I still don’t really know what to do with him in life uh he hasn’t had a
Great start to the year you know in the last couple but this is still a talented young kid who won during swing season Jason day loves Pebble I mean this guy he seems to love Pro AMS and eight hour rounds this is right in his wheelhouse
Uh I have zero issue with him I’m not saying I’m throwing decky out but I’m with you on the outside looking in Benny on is tough I’m a big Benny on guy I think you I mean listen it’s it’s a non-cut these are good golfers they’re
All playable I’d say I’m lukewarm on on definitely behind Fitzy definitely behind day yep I’m with you on all of those obviously Tom Kim we’re happy with because he catched a plus 330 to miss a cut ticket but I will say I I would be okay falling into a couple of shares
With him this week one of the things that happens is the people we we always think that they’re going to take advice and use the data and that they’re going to you know Absol absolutely no doubt about it factor in that golf courses change but they don’t there’s so many
People that still just Jam based off of what they just saw the previous week and that’s where it’s like a guy like hogard I’m probably going to be out on Hideki I’m probably going to be out on to some extent I’ll probably have a little bit
But Tom Kim kind of feels like the buyback so yeah maybe maybe I get a little bit more than what I’m anticipating but right now I’m pretty flat to the field yeah and I think it’s a point that is super important early in the season of guys are a getting in form
And B what you need at Tory South is not what you need at Pebble it’s just not it you do both great but some guys uh would thrive in one and struggle in the other I am with you let’s talk about the sevens it’s the next part of the
Mid-range Poston Fela Russell Henley who I think really could get going early I’m not sure he’ll hold up in the wind but I do like him your boy Bo hostler Keegan Connor Scott Harmon lot of names here what are you looking for your mid-range plays everything so again I’m pretty
Heavy in the nines and upper nines it’s just a it’s just a freefor all JT Poston give me all of that you got I mean I think you know by now the the putter combination with what the irons can be on any given week I mean it’s just so
Hard for me not to click on him Russell Henley probably the best play of the entire week I bet he ends up getting very very popular he’s the one piece of chalk I don’t care I’m going to play Russell Henley pretty much no matter what happens to his ownership between
Now and lock and then I love Bo Hustler I know that that’s not everybody’s cup of tea and I I get that you see that he’s in the same range as a theala you see that he’s next to Keegan Bradley Cory Connor and it’s like why does Bo
Hustler belong here well the guy does what I want him to do which is around the green game better than just about anybody so Bo Hustler uh just goes out and puts up numbers he obviously is very familiar with Coastal golf he just dominated California in his Amer days uh
You know NCGA scga he was just dominating all of it so Bo Hustler here in a a golf course that I think sets up pretty well there were three golfers I thought about betting I haven’t bet anybody yet but they all exist in this range they are Poston Henley hosler I’m
Gonna have tons of them in DFS Henley made my betting article it’s posted R OD Chopper uh good number on him this guy knows what he’s doing and I actually like that Russell Henley is not someone where it’s like oh Russell Henley and Pebble like they’re ju no but he should
Fit this perfectly he should fit this perfectly it’s the type of course that’s really good for him again the tools love it uh Adam Scott I put him in the Jason day bucket of like I think this makes sense but I feel very very scared to do it what do
You make of a guy that again we haven’t seen him here doing anything in quite some time ah I I don’t know I little sprinkle I I could little sprinkle I mean come on in the water’s warm God what not that warm it’s it’s not that warm it’s really not that warm
I I don’t know I mean the irons have been weird this that’s kind of the last thing for me is like the last 24 last 50 round sample size as you go through for it it’s been spotty but obviously there’s not really a sample size for it
We haven’t really seen him I know he was in Australia I know he kind of is just getting his season kicked off but like I I don’t know what to make of him I think that’s maybe that’s just kind of like that unknown bucket but like you have
Harmon you have Kirk who I I like this week you have you have SEIU like these are all guys that I think Eric Cole as we get to the lower sevens I’m kind of getting jump started here but it’s more just like do I want to play Adam Scott
Pulling nearly 10% ownership here like at 7600 or I just want to like take the savings and you know add 5% and get different elsewhere with air coal like if I’m avoiding the the 10K 11k range as much as what it looks like I am outside
Of Rory who I think is going to get squeezed I like getting to just the bottom seven guys and then just above Adam Scott all of those guys that I listed off before so can’t play everybody you know everybody wants to have a stand somewhere for me I’m not
Really having a stand on Scott I suppose it’s just no for me I think he’s just getting squeezed as a result of what I like around him that’s just more known quantities to me you know who else is around him and he’s about 160 to one to
Win the tournament is Ricky Fowler oh no I knew you’re gonna do it I don’t know if I can do it he I don’t he fits the golf course profile really really well irons around the green game if the putter can Spike awesome um you know like we we’ve seen
At times with that with that putter the jailbird The Odyssey jailbird we’ve seen it pop from time to time but I don’t know man it’s it’s so hard to to feel any kind of Warman fuzzies clicking on Ricky Fowler this week no Eric Cole I
Mean just look at it on the screen again and these are going to update as we refine and whatnot but average simulated Roi quite a difference and I lean to Cole as well and I do it’s a perfect time I know I’ve been talking about this
And you guys know about it but if you have not given a chance to these type of tools even if you’re saying you know what I’m not ready for the Sims PGA lineup generator is also available they’re in the links in the description you have the PGA Sims you have the PGA
Lineup generator these are the tools that we are using and the results speak for themselves again you’ve seen it Steve buzzer just won another Millie maker in the NFL now that guy in addition to being a a mega sharp he also how he got Brock py to not drop back one
Extra yard on that kneel down I’ll never know because that’s what saved him uh but incredible stuff and these tools are not going away if you want to test them out even for a week and see if this fits your type of build or you’re saying you
Know what I’ve been struggling and I’m looking for something new let me see if I can incorporate that the links are there in chat really no better time to do it with NFL winding down and PGA heating up but let’s keep going again we’re gonna just run through this field
We’re not gonna waste time we’ve got hadwin and Jagger heavin Yu Nick Taylor norin I like norin a lot this week the low sevens I still think are pretty deep and that just speaks to an elevated event you guys know by now SE straa you
If you’ve listened to me and do like s my favorite thing was looking at the Sims uh this morning and working through my process and seeing him is the highest average simulated Roi golfer that’s useful that’s useful friends this guy is so good and I play him all the time and
Nobody listens to me because just never gets to double digit ownership and it shocks me all the time because he is so damn good and this is the golf course where you really want him like I I know the around the green game doesn’t necessarily fit the profile of what you
Might expect here for this place but approach the putter can definitely turn around and I’d be just fine with it but like this is the time that you’re getting sep straa at the absolute low point you saw in an Open championship last year wet windy ridiculous going him
And Brian Haron again it’s like an Open Championship or US Open style builds that I’m getting to and that seems to be reflected also in our average simulated Roi for The Sims tool this week sep straa Matt Fitzpatrick Ryan har Russell Henley Eric Cole like these guys all
Fall into that bucket and SE sta again I’m looking across the industry at a number of spots that have him at 2% 3% this will be the golfer I probably have the highest stand on of the entire week outside of Russell Henley and Russ and again the difference is with Russell
Henley to have a big stand you need a lot because people are playing him with SE straa not going to be the case uh I want to give a shout out to Lloyd in chat CH says firing from the hip in the $12 single entry first ever PGA contest
Welcome aboard you’re once you start you’re going to be addicted because it is so much fun sweating out PJ lineups uh it also definitely takes years off your life but that’s all right um it’s worth it great sweat enjoy it let’s make some money with it uh I’m gonna I’m
Gonna ride with Alex norin he’s playing really good golf he’s making Cuts 25th at ax second in Bermuda dur swing season he can score he doesn’t mind easy conditions but he also doesn’t mind windy conditions very kind of bizarre profile for him he’s got European experience where they play in Crazy
Weather I like noren a lot this week in the low sevens him and staka I’m gonna tell you on that those are names that I think you can get to I’m not on Pavone I don’t really like Todd I don’t really like English anything else you want to talk about in the low
Sevens EV going to play EVR I don’t know that’s that’s a tough one I I’m I’m having a tough time with him I suppose again you can’t play everybody I’m not going to play everybody and I’m obviously GNA have the 7K range peard at sep straa and then the upper range
Henley Poston Hustler like I’m going to be playing tons of those guys Brian Harman as well but I don’t think I need to get overweight to anybody here there’s some 6K guys some obviously this is an 80 person field so uh there’s there’s going to be pieces down here Lucas
Glover we’ll talk about in a minute Taylor more even but I don’t think I have to get to EVR I think I I’m probably okay just bypassing it but I at least stared at it for a while I I think just because it’s a no cut I think I’m
More inclined to try to fire somebody else up that I think just has more upside EVR feels like you know we we’ve seen him at the American Express play well some easy conditions spots played well he won the wwt but like yeah I’m not going to do it I’m not
Going to do it I just decided I think that you can put EVR on a bucket of off the T Stacks if you want to do that on some teams I don’t really want to do that he’s a good driver of the ball Cam Davis is down there you can pair with K
Keith Mitchell is down there you can pair with I’m more drawn to other types of golfers chat mentioned Nick Taylor I think I’d have Nick Taylor ahead of him I’d rather go to a guy like that obviously had success at Pebble before um a couple years
Ago how low I mean the beautiful thing about an 80 man non-cut these are real players in the sixes like these are guys that are 88500 in Weak Fields Grio is down here shank is down here uh list is down here Nick Dunlap is here I’m not
Playing him but just wanted to mention it what are you looking at in the sixes Rogers I think right off the bat oh yeah four it’s a it’s a four round event if it wasn’t you probably don’t feel good about a chalkier Patrick Rogers but give me four rounds of Patrick Rogers you’re
Going to get something low you’re going to get one round it’s just a question does you shoot 75 to knock you out of it too I think you got to fire up a little bit of him and then Taylor Montgomery I never play Taylor Montgomery ever ever
Ever and the fact that my model actually likes him this week tells me something that I should probably play Taylor Montgomery and not be biased against him it has more to do with just what that putter can be and he fits certain skill sets that I think you compare the around
The green putter with uh if it is so bad and just so ridiculous and you’re hitting two irons off of te’s everywhere this golf course Pebble Beach it’s not long it’s not demanding off the te the main thing that the US Open that Gary Woodland had as an advantage was he just
Hit two iron everywhere and you know 500 yard power fours it was still running out because it was US Open style conditions where it’s firm Fairways he you know they brought the rough in or brought threw the rough up they brought the fairways in so it was much more
Narrow than it normally plays for this if it’s just going to be spray and you’re fine like I think Taylor Montgomery is very very alive this week so 6,800 I’m overweight probably the first time I’ve ever been overweight to him in a year and a half of PGA DFS where he’s
Existed so I’m going to give you a guy that I think is super similar to Taylor Montgomery and a real dark horse in this type of field McKenzie Hughes is like that Elite around the Green Elite putting terrible off the te not good with the irons he’s got to mask that do
I do I think I want to Hitch my wagons to Mackenzie Hughes no do I think that I could start with a spe type lineup and build crafty putter around the green Stacks yes I do and I think Taylor Montgomery and Mackenzie Hughes in the
Sixes fit that type of build love love I I I’m gonna put that together here right now just made a note of it um Rio’s putting well I I think that gotta give him a shout out there uh Bez is Bez he’s also in that conversation we’ve got a lot of similar
Players Andrew putam is that type of player but then you do have a couple people that are driver Centric senson luk list Grayson all bomber type guys not crazy but not short hitters either what do you make of them I mean is that the is that the range you want to go
Even Kurt kyama who’s who’s struggled a little bit I’m not sure that’s my favorite punt plays o of the group yeah no not my favorite either I mean Lucas Glover if he doesn’t have the Yips that’s always a fun time to be in on Lucas glver I just don’t know what those
Weeks are going to be but from a ball striking perspective he’s somebody that if it is brutal out pairs nicely with other ball striking groups where it’s just like hey if it’s that bad let’s just try to get the ball on the green every single time that’s a good way to
Mitigate conditions but super small greens Lucas Glover is going to miss a couple and if it gets out of hand it could just get ugly quick but Kirk kyama I’m probably not going to be clicking on Adam shank I thought about clicking on a little bit uh approach putter
Combination thought that that had some viability but doesn’t fit more of what I’m trying to do with some of these other builds I suppose more Ben Griffin around the green putter but I again I think this is just a spot where these are better golfers than you’re generally
Getting in a 6K range Mark hubard is somebody that um showed up in a couple of my builds and for me I just kind of went over to the Sims tool and and took a look at a couple of those pairings and looked at some like Golf Course stack
Types and so for me it’s more of just like peeling a couple of those six guy ranges and pairing them with like my core uh in each individual build rather than say hey I have a with this golfer CU there’s really nobody down here that
I’m like I I feel all that good about I think putam at the 6K range is the only guy who going to get a ton of attention um do you see anybody else getting even over like 5% down here because I really don’t Maverick mcney maybe because he’s
A local dude yeah people I I think more people will be willing to go into the deep sixes knowing you’re getting four rounds this is not a normal week of golf where it’s like oh I’m gonna play this guy and he’s gonna get cut and I’m dead
You’re gonna say Okay I want to play you know I want a Sheffer Xander start and I want to hit Henley and I want to do that and oh I’ll punt with uh you know Maverick mcney or Taylor Moore someone like that I think you do see that this
Week and I think it can absolutely work I just think you want to be careful with it um Davis or kyama it would be Cam Davis for me yep Cam Davis for sure between the two um does the winning lineup have a 6K rain guy often yeah I mean that
Definitely happens uh don’t shy away from the sixk range one thing I will bring up um so I was doing kind of a deep dive on just the two course rotation as opposed to the three course rotation and I trimmed off mpcc now Monteray Peninsula Country Club was an
Awesome Golf Course Coastline they have two different 18s out there one of the most beautiful par 3s You’ ever seen in your life though my best friend got engaged at up there it was a great time good times had by all um but Sheamus power I’ve got him as like the best
Adjusted golfer in terms of like the two main courses so if you go to um if you just trim off npcc we go back to where is this event I I did this work I gotta I gotta at least get come on there come come on thing all right here it is so
Back in what year was this it was 2022 you had first round second round leader Sheamus power goes 64 64 at Pebble and spy glass shoots 74 at npcc 72 then finishes tide for ninth there in that spot but had talked before that he didn’t necessarily like the setup of
Npcc as much which is weird cuz again it’s pretty wide open you have like some you know some like Ravine type stuffs you have you go out to the coast for a couple of really cool holes uh you know the 18 M Drive kind of goes directly
Through the golf course there on the coast it’s a beautiful spot but I think Sheamus power at 6K if it’s going to be absolutely horrendous out and you know this might be an absolute buyback in on a spot where he’s playing the two golf coures that we saw the 6464 from two
Round sample size he has not been playing good it is what it is misses the cut at the farmers but like you get back in a spot you have good Juju from and I don’t know it’s going to look a lot like Ireland out there this week so screw it
I I think Sheamus power I’m gonna get to like 5% of oh little sleeper pick Sheamus powers and I actually I’ll bring up right now because I was going to mention and it’s no better time to do it for a top 20 and make sure you shop this OD shop
.c jamus is 6 to1 for a top 20 in an 80 man field that’s pretty damn appealing uh that’s not bad that’s pulled over at bmgm and I do want to mention it’s been on the screen they sponsor this video and it’s good timing because with the
Super Bowl as I’ve been talking about on all my videos if you watch the NFL one you see all these deals these books want your business for for the NFL it’s winding down and they’re willing to do it they’re doing a bet and get and what
Does that mean you don’t play on BET MGM you’re in illegal wedding state if you sign up the link is below you see It’ll say bet five get 158 and that means if you deposit 10 bucks and bet $5 $5 win or lose you’re getting $158 in bonus
Bets you can use that money to fund that account to build it up hopefully uh to build it into something nice and have extra money in the bankroll maybe you you build it and transfer it over to another book maybe you just say I’m going to use this more and more
Apparently Eric doesn’t believe in it he just left but for the rest of you come on in and check out MGM the link is below you got to be 20 if you have a gambling problem call 800 Gambler I’m pointing right to it and Jordan my man
Just put it in chat Eric claims he’s gonna be on NBA live before lock tonight it might be fake news uh considering what we got we don’t have many golfers left but I do just want to Rattle off the bottom of the range from guys you know Taylor Moore Maverick coocher Look
Who’s Back you you you heard Matt Coo’s name and you said okay let me chime in before that’s what did it for me yeah I love guys who don’t tip their caddies and are absolute Stooges yeah great that sums it up nicely uh one last guy for me and
Then we’ll get to the hot takes and bounce on out of here I like Nick Hardy I’ve been playing him I’m gonna stick with him I think this is actually a pretty good setup he’s another guy can’t really putt the ball striking has been fine he’s been positive on the approach
And off the te in four straight he has made a string of cuts on the PGA tour 37th at farmers and I think an objectively setup give me Nick Hardy as one of my favorite really Dirt Cheap pay down options yeah we uh let’s see yeah I don’t mind Nick Hardy also getting
Guaranteed four I mean that’s what I mean he can score that’s yeah that’s a little bit better situation I mean obviously this flattens out like there’s going to be somebody who shoots a million down here uh yeah they’re going to be a there’s going to be a land mine
Or two that exist here but for the most part you’re going to have a lot of these guys much much closer to the 8 NK range than what people think so for me down here it’s definitely going to be Sheamus power as just your absolute flat complete stars and scrubs kind of guy
But I’ll at least give the the mandatory shout out to Maverick mcney who I feel like he’s just he goes in the category of one of my dudes extremely good putter that’s what he does he beat the T he beat tiger scoring record at Stanford he
Is one of those kids that uh he never has to think about money as long as he lives because his dad basically owns titlist aoet he is the CEO of or was once upon a time any who you’re looking at him uh well no that that’s a
Different that was uh that’s Peter Uline sorry Peter but no but his dad is a billionaire Maverick is an absolute certified there you go absolute billionaire but amazingly good Putter and I mean obviously Stanford not that far away and you know this is this is like his calling card like Maverick
Mcney just small Golf Course get hot with a putter maybe ride it into the sunset so like I think he ends up being a little bit more popular than currently projected because I’ve heard them on every P podcast I listen to this morning but I’m okay uh getting to a little bit
There no doubt about it we’re going to see how the weather develops certainly for things like Showdown which is covered by the tools but if you have questions you see it on the screen at jazr asdfs Eric linquist we’re both on Twitter we’re active we’re happy to help
Uh you can give us a follow there and of course you can find us on Discord if and when you sign up and you’re part of the stochastic family or the O Chopper family you’ll be in there with us you know what time it is it’s hot take time
We’re going to give just hot hot takes little Against the Grain for Pebble Beach proam I’m going to give mine right now I’m gonna lead us off not gonna get crazy this is very simple Justin Thomas at 25 to1 was my first bet and my favorite bet in this tournament I think
That JT’s playing good golf I think he’s motivated after a bad 2023 and I think he can handle these conditions I really do he’s drives in non- cuts Justin Thomas at 25 to1 even in a strong field I think is a gift and it’s one of the
Only outright bets that I really was drawn to this week that’s my hot take sir you’ve been on you’ve been on a hot take with your hot takes keep it going let’s hear it all right so I haven’t bet anything this week yet so we’ll see if I
Decide to pull the trigger I think it’s maybe a little bit late in the week for me but I’m gonna do this because I don’t think that I’ve done this since it was the John Deere Steve Stricker I’m going to have 100% Russell Henley this week I think that’s going to be it
800 I’m just jamming him I don’t see any way at 7,800 that in four rounds no cut this golf course specifically their Russell Henley doesn’t go out and end up optimal so I will throw out in optimal piece somebody that I will have in every single lineup that I make in DFS this
Week Russell Henley just puts the smackdown finishes top six that’s what we’re looking for that is a great hot take I like it we keep it see we got to keep the people guessing got a little betting a little DFS a whole lot of information here at stochastic we
Appreciate you guys again I know the rider dies golf is just getting started and we cannot wait to show more and more of these tools and get more and more people inside the ropes for me for Eric for Jordan Klein who’s been hanging out with me for hours on hours doing trivia
NFL anything in between we appreciate everyone let’s make some money this week for firsttime players every time players come back next week and let’s talk waste management but until then guys enjoy everything we’ll talk to you soon
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2 Comments
"I could little sprinkle" LMAO You guys are the best. Great info and some great humor.
Great early call on Straka! As always thanks for the insight !