Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!
Welcome to the early web presented by bet MGM I am your host Eric Cohen otherwise known as EC if you are watching this well make sure to subscribe to the Sportsline YouTube video or YouTube channel and like this video and while you’re at it watching things check out the AT&T Pebble Beach
Pram this weekend at 3 p.m. Eastern on Saturday and Sunday on CBS and Paramount plus there is much to discuss this week so let’s bring in the stars of the show we have the we’ll call him the Scotty Sheffer of golf betters the counselor C aad also the host that’s right you’re
The Scotty Sheffer of of golf better the best the number one in the world we’re gonna call him the Rory mroy of golf writers from CBS Sports Patrick McDonald I hope you guys like your comparisons uh right off the bat but let’s get right into weather we’re getting into story
Lines let’s talk some weather here that’s my story line let’s get right to it so I write this fantasy telling for sportsline.com yesterday and I figured the weather was going to be fine I looked at it and was like great so I log on to to X this morning and I see
Patrick’s tweet and it says this weather is going to be a disaster on Sunday Patrick are we gonna getting 54 holes are we getting a Monday finish are they gonna play 36 on Saturday what’s gonna happen with this weather oh geez uh second week in a row you really just
Toss me a a softball here off the bat you see I really appreciate it and the Rory macroy comparison world number two I’d love to know who the better writer is out there uh if you’re out there please let me know um as for the weather
It’s G to be insane and it is certainly something CBS since it is on our Network and the PGA Tour is talking about uh constantly because you know what next week is and you know what uh game is on CBS and you know where all those production team members need to go it’s
Las Vegas and so the last thing they want to do is have some sort of Monday finish like they did last year they definitely don’t want this to somehow bleed into Tuesday that’s not gonna that’s not gonna work so what happens I have no idea the weather looks horrible
Lot of rain an inch on Thursday I believe you look at Sunday the rain kind of subsides well you’re hit with 60 m per hour gust they’re not gonna play that they’re not playing that it’s just not happening no so it hasn’t really been a shortened tournament I think Adam
Scott won at the Genesis a handful of years back in 36 holes uh when the queen passed away on the DP World Tour that was 54 holes uh so it it has happened somewhat recently across professional golf but it’s certainly not uh the usual and I honestly I couldn’t tell you
What’s going to happen counselor with this uncertainty does this make you want to bet Less on this tournament than you normally would it’s a really good question actually so a little bit so in the matchup department and we don’t have like the full allotment of matchups out
Yet don’t get me wrong we all have matchups for this show but in the matchup Department I think it’s kind of a case-by case basis I will tell you where I kind of wanted to scale back you’ll see when we get to the outrights I picked two outrights and I’ll be
Honest about the second one I was almost well I actually picked four outrights there’s two in the long shot Department that are like kind of long bombs but normally I would have like two or three main guys that I would be betting in the outright department but to me from a
Bankroll management standpoint because day-to-day we don’t know what this weather’s going to look like and we don’t know what Sunday’s going to look like we know what it’s projected to look like but by Saturday it might be different and we might might might have a tournament that finishes on on
Saturday or Monday or whatever the case may be so I’m reserving a little bit of my bank role especially in the outright department for live betting like once like more information is better right so we we could have a scenario we we we’ve got so much going on already with the
Weather with the rain with the wind with the the rotating courses for Thursday and Friday I I feel like this is one of those tournaments maybe you scale it back a little bit particularly in some of those I don’t want to call them gimmicky bets but some of the more long
Shot bets like your outrights maybe you only take one or two guys as opposed to the three or four you normally take and have have some money for a live bet all right well let’s stick on the long shot theme because that’s your storyline counselor as far as what we’ve seen in
January four triple digit winners I’m not hitting any of those I I’m not even close the thing about Matthew pavon I mean great win don’t get me wrong that shot over the water on 18 was phenomenal but if you gave me a 100 golfers if you
Said you can have 100 golfers in the field going into Tory pin I’m not picking him if you said you can have a 100 golfers at the AMX I’m not picking Nick Dunlap and the same thing with Grayson Murray in Hawaii I just you’re not even close on this your storyline is
Tell us more about it well what’s really interesting is that because the field is so loaded I mean let’s I mean if we just refer to the top Scotty Sheffer Rory mroy I mean just go down the line Klay Xander schofl Max h I mean there’s like
Some Superstar power in this field and so what that does is some of the I I guess lesser players but but players that would have been maybe in the 30 to 40 to 50 to One Market a couple of tournaments ago well well now they’re in
Like the 80 to 90 to 100 to one market so I do think this is a tournament especially when you’re talking about the lack of distance the lack of prowess you require off the tea on this course I do think it mitigates some of what the superstars do really well and with that
In mind I really like the idea of maybe focusing on some of those more long shoty guys like the Brian harmans of the world for example that the 90 to1 the 80 to1 the sep sters like I do think those guys have a shot especially when we
Consider it’s a no cut but it’s only an 80 person field I think a lot of these guys are getting pushed down to to odds that are really appealing but that are also attainable so I do think while the top of the board is is really strong I
Do think the middle to the to the bottom of the board is is pretty strong too well we’ll be interested to see what you come up with later in the show don’t want to spoil it right now Patrick your storyline is very interesting as far as
This is now an elevated tournament 80 80 players no cut uh but a lot of these guys have not played at Pebble Beach very often if at all how will that affect uh the tournament this weekend really attainable but appealing that’s what I tell myself at the bar every
Friday night see you before I go up and approach a woman uh but the way I see it is look we have someone like Scotty Sheffer is making his tournament debut Rory mcroy has only played this tournament twice this will be his fourth appearance at pubble beach colore kawa’s making his tournament
Debut Justin Thomas rarely plays here but on the flip side you have someone like Jordan spe the horse for the course Patrick Klay horse for the course Max the California King so it does kind of present some weird little Avenues in if you want to play the course history if
You want to play the geography uh road map whatever ever you want and I think it’s just really interesting and and could lead down to like CIA said maybe some surprise names contending once again all right well let’s get into the DFS picks and you know normally I would
Say well you’re the guys that you like I know you guys like to look at middle of the board but let’s talk about your Fades and see I’m going to start with you you’re fading the number two player in the world who’s coming off a second
Place finish and a win in Dubai yet you don’t like him this weekend why is that which means I’m really feading Patrick McDonald’s see I knew you were going to make that comp at the beginning of the show and I was like how do I get one up
On Patrick McDonald’s and he doesn’t have Scotty shefer is his fate so I’m clean I’m good in that department so here’s the thing about Roy mroy I don’t this is because this is a DFS question there’s a couple things we should know pricing is really soft so it’s not like
Getting to Roy mroy is tough in DFS but because of that he is a little bit popular and and when I what I talked about on the front end with kind of long shots being able to contend here I think I think Rory off the te like
Again it’s it’s a little bit mitigated here in terms of how much how much how much he’s so much better than everybody else like off the te I sorry sorry for messing that up but the the long and short of it is I just don’t see the
Advantage for Rory relative to some of these other courses so it’s just an easy fade for me I mean I do like guys that are right above him and right below him like I’ll play Scotty sheff I’ll play Victor hlin but I’m just not super interested in playing waran mroy at 115
All right now you’re the players that you’re buying this week you talked about Brian Harman a little bit but Brendan Todd also has a pretty good course history here yeah that and and it makes sense right because this is like a plotting sort of positional course and so Brandon Todd everybody’s going to
Basically be in the same spot in the Fairway even shorter hitters like Brendon Todd you got to be dialed in on approach and you got to be good with the short game and Brendan Todd really checks all of those boxes and we’ve seen that with recent finishes at the AT&T
Pebble Beach so I I think Brenan Todd is just one of those players that he’s not exciting not a ton of people are going to play again this is a DFS discussion so let’s just remember the context there’s so many more exciting players to play than Brendan Todd he’s just not a
Splash play and that’s part of the reason I like him at 7,000 given the course history his recent history is fine and I would say the same about Brian Haron Brian Haron the course history there’s not much of it with Brian Harmon but he really profiles well
For this course he’s got the short game around the green and with the putter he can get absolutely hot particularly with the putter at times and he’s dialed in on approach he doesn’t need to be long which he isn’t so I think it’s 7600 like this just seems like an underprice for
Brian Haron like don’t forget if they if the going gets tough from a weather standpoint Brian Harman should just should be just fine and if you think well Brian harman’s not a winner when it comes to this field I mean he literally just won the Open Championship not six
Seven months ago so I just think he’s a guy that’s probably not getting enough attention now I in in the third spot I could have put anybody here I chose Brandon woo because I just wanted to choose somebody that was going to be really different as you can see I I take
The Patrick McDonald approach here and I take a bunch of cheap guys I just so everybody understands what I’m doing here this isn’t me saying I don’t like Victor havland or Scotty Sheffer or Patrick kley or Xander choffle play those guys if you want but you’ll you’ll
Have the ability to play multiple guys like that if you have lower-end guys that don’t carry a lot of ownership in particular in Brandon woo nobody’s gonna play Brandon woo the thing about Brandon woo that I like is his recent form he’s really been dialed on approach and again
When it comes to DFS I’m trying to be early to the party and I don’t think Brandon Woo is this like Super Hyper talented guy relative to the top of the field but he is trending in a direction that I don’t think people are like truly recognizing I know he gets four rounds
This is a nocut event so it’s 6,300 if he can Spike with that approach and if he can Spike with the putter then I’ve got somebody that nobody else has at 6,300 I see I like hearing that that’s like the next step up from a parlay right there counselor to have somebody
Else that nobody has in DFS I love it that I will certainly consider when building my lineup this week all right Patrick you disappoint me here you know your fade is the player that obviously has a tremendous course history and who I really really like this week why are
You anti Jordan Speed uh anytime Jordan spe is probably going to be the highest own guy I am probably gonna fade him and you see the course history you see the podium finish at the century and I totally understand where people are coming from but there’s a ton of
Volatility with Jordan spe just in general there seems to be an art to picking when he will play well you can’t really back it up with statistics at all so really just ownership wise at 9,400 a ton of people are going to play him so I
Will not but I do like haris English at Sony 100 not a great Farmers Insurance open for him but had a great Hawaii swing top 15 at the century top 10 at the Sony Open he’s gonna have to drive the ball a little better but this is a
Guy who popped up at Big Time tournaments last year US Open API Wells Fargo Championship inside the top 10 at all of them and then someone who sea liked a lot last week ailano Grio nice T20 finish there at Tory Pines irons were great I like them when we can kind
Of get them on a shorter Golf Course where his irons can shine t7 at the Sony Open uh so at 6,800 I think that’s a bargain and then gonna take a flyer on McKenzie Hughes uh he’s he’s been good to me in the past and so I kind of have
A soft spot for him it kind of feels like almost like a B- Lev RSM classic week cold weather rain windy wet irons are trending t16 his last time here so I’ll take uh I’ll take a little nibble on the Canadian yeah I really like that
Bet and you will you will see why a little bit later in the show but thank you for explaining my logic I appreciate that you know everybody when it comes to seea knows him as the frl king and by the way Patrick is no slouch either he
Has given out his many winners over time and I know he doesn’t like to give out as many on the show but counselor you would normally give out a bunch of f frls in this particular section however with the two course rotation and the weather none are out yet when can people
Find your first round leader picks yeah and I think it’s because maybe because tea times aren’t out yet I’m not 100% sure why they’re not out but either way they’re not out I keep looking to my left to see if if we’ll we’ll suddenly see them but good question because I do
Write a an article for Sportsline as everybody knows so they should be in the sports line article which I may have to wait to publish frankly because I’d like to get the first round leaders in there but um it’ll either be late tonight that it’ll be up there on the sports line
Site or early tomorrow so you look forward to that it’ll have my matchups outrights um but certainly my first round leaders as well and some finishing position plays um I’ll say this though if for some reason they’re not out uh tomorrow you can expect Thursday morning
I I I’m not sure when the opening tea time is I know we’re on the west coast but hopefully you know we’ll see I should have him in the article but if not I’ll have them on the early Edge on Thursday at 10 o’clock you’ll be dropping dimes Thursday morning worst
Case uh I’ll tell you it’s frustrating though because we expect on Tuesday night all the lines to be out by now as you said and I was checking all day as well because I’m excited you know you are cash money people talk about your picks in forums all over the Internet
And I’m not kidding I’m serious they’re like what is CA picking this week let me say this so I hit my two matchups last week I hit all my round matchups I think I lost one of them so we’re on a nice little run here but and we almost hit
Steph joerger he was on I guess the South course on Thursday he was one shot back got to the uh the par five and he parted otherwise we would had a split with one or two other guys but I do want to shout out Patrick McDonald he had
What was it one outright last week and it was Nikolai hoard who had a at 50 to one who had a very good shot to win that tournament just kind of a you know kind of a wonky last few holes for him but he he was actually I shouldn’t even say
That it was he was one put away from being in a playoff wasn’t he yeah yeah I mean you were what you were one shot away Patrick an incredible shot by pavon over the water I’m thinking he’s going to chunk it going the drink and you’re
Going to cash at what 55 to1 something like that that’s why we watched this show because hoard is somebody I would have never considered and I saw your your bet and I was like do I dabble in so I got in live and of course you know
If I get in live I’m sorry I probably ruined your karma there but before we get to matchups let’s hear from one of our sponsors all right it’s winning time right now it’s matchup time and Patrick McDonald’s gonna start because he’s given a handicap match up you’re not
You’re not picking an even where ties will count Sun JM has to win by a stroke explain how did you come up with this one first I I just want to thank you for bringing up the pain of last Saturday uh and really talking through it second
Runner up for me already this year Keegan Bradley should have won the Sony Open I will live by that one uh but yeah Sun JM has to beat outright Cameron young minus 110 I know cam is coming over from Dubai a nice start there Sun Jay coming off a miscut surprising one
There at the farmers but I think it’s really good opportunity to buy low on sunj just long-term super consistent golfer really doesn’t have a flaw in his game so I think his floor is somewhere around a top 20 this week Cam’s a bit volatile like uh C said at the top kind
Of in regards to Rory mcroy what cam young does best here is a little bit mitigated so I’m going to take the South Korean and then Justin Thomas minus one ton over ludvig obar a lot of wedges this week JT’s wedge game is back I think he will have
The opportunity to Club down off the te more times than not which will kind of mitigate one of his weaknesses and while everyone is looking at the Resurgence and the iron play really a Resurgence on the greens as well for Justin Thomas that’s what’s really been booed uh this
Top five streak so I love him at minus 110 over the young swed all right so seea you’re also fading cam young but you’re going back to the Sam Burns train which I mean after what we saw at the AMX and that meltdown at the end I mean
I’m staying away from Sam Burns for now but you’re going right back to it why is that well the good news with the play is it’s just a matchup right he just has to beat one guy the same guy that Patrick McDonald is fading so I’m not picking
Sam Burns to win the tournament although I I suppose he’s in play there if he if he gets hot particularly with approach and on the greens which we know he can do can I just point out something Eric is is Bradley Jacobs Your Shadow account because he said something about EC’s
Such a great host I love his energy that that’s you right you’re Bradley I I I I don’t want to give out my burner accounts I just like I can’t tell you you know and by the way yeah okay fair enough I I think it’s you but uh by the
Way Joe newfeld where can we find the round matchups I think is what you’re asking so the round just so you know the round matchups aren’t even out yet like so we don’t even have round one matchups out yet normally they would be out right
Now but but they’re not so when when we get them like that’s something I’ll definitely have on the early Edge Thursday at 10: those aren’t usually included in my My article those are usually tournament matchups but anyway let me get to those Brendan Todd plus 120 over Keegan Bradley so here’s the
Thing I think this is a great course fit for Brendon tot and we see that not just with his second place finish last year but he’s had some good finishes on this course it’s not like an aberration it was just that one finish second place and he’s had a bunch of terrible
Finishes otherwise at this at Pebble Beach so I like brenon Todd in general and I also like Keegan Bradley I think he can have a good tournament now but when we look at the short game especially this like this week short gamees really going to matter I don’t
Usually look at like around the green game too much I usually kind of minimize that relative to other people in the industry but given the wind and the rain and just the idea that Pebble Beach you got to have good short game anyway because the greens are smaller it’s
Going to come into play and Keegan Bradley when I look at the weighted short game metrics for him versus Brendan Todd it’s kind of night and day that doesn’t mean Keegan Bradley’s terrible around the green and with the putter but especially when you condense it to the last like 20 24 rounds Brendan
Todd really flashes over Keegan Bradley and then when you look at the ball striking Brendan Todd is really good especially on a course like this he he’s fine relative to Keegan Bradley there as well so he’s got the course history going against Keegan Bradley and even though he’s not the better player the
Course fit is certainly as good if not better from brenon Todd and so when I look at a plus 120 number I mean plus 120 is pretty great odds right I mean I think you could make this minus 110 both ways and I would at least consider
Brenon to but then you’re gonna give me plus 12 and I got to make it a play so my next one is Sam Burns we talked about fading cam young and when we look at the metrics for cam young he’ll flash here and there for a round but like overall
It’s been really bad for quite some time and Sam Burns we’re starting to see him put together including in that tournament where you talked about EC with the Meltdown like Sam Burns metrics look pretty good I think he’s a decent course fit here and cam young just
Hasn’t done enough to show me that he’s a threat to any of these mid like middle tier or top tier golfers so I’m gonna take Sam Burns minus 120 over cam young all right I have three matchups I’m gonna fade Sun JM here and I love Matt Fitzpatrick this week I’ll explain a
Little bit more later on but he does thrive on links and Coastal courses there is kind of a Synergy between the RBC Heritage which is played the week after the the ma the Masters in Patrick’s neighborhood of South Carolina uh and this particular course Jordan spe
Al also pops there and Patrick Klay has good success at both courses so Fitzpatrick won that event over Jordan spe last year in a playoff so I’m Gonna Roll with him at even money over Sun JM I also like spe where I’m it’s a common theme over Colin morawa who let me down
Big Time eliminated me from my cut pool that I’m in last week I need to pick one guy to make the cut every week Colin you shoot five under on one on the North Course and you do what on the south course it was like watching me plot
Maybe not okay we’ll just put it that way I like spe over morawa at plus 110 we talked about speed’s history here six top 10 and 12 events including a win morawa played in the 2019 US Open with a t35 but not as much experience albeit he
Is a Bay Area guy so maybe that helps a little bit and I’m going with a little kind of a random one Denny McCarthy over JT Poston at plus 140 Poston has been really good lately I mean he’s off to he’s off to a great start but Denny has
Has been T12 and T4 the last two years here gained nearly nine shots nine Strokes putting combined in those years he gained eight shots putting at the Sony Open and route to a t24 so it’s not like he’s in awful form but uh you know that’s I I found these particular
Matchups at DraftKings and Caesars sea where did you find your particular matchups thank you for asking so one is at Caesars and one is at DraftKings I believe it’s I think the Sam Burns one over cam young that’s going to be DraftKings Brendan Todd over Keegan Bradley that one’s going to be Caesars
And again more matchups are going to come out across different sites so you can always kind of message us and and ask us if if you’re like for example Tai moris says hey do you like Todd over beden hot at plus 115 actually don’t love that because I I think CZ could
Have actually a pretty good tournament I like how he’s grading out especially with that short game and approach metric so that’s one I would probably stay away from although the Price Is Right plus one plus 115 is pretty good I’d still stay away from it so in terms terms of
Matchups you know not necessarily my number one thing to bet but you know what is finishing position bets this is what I love and then when I look at the rundown and I see a parlay it just makes me so happy and I was actually talking with producer Jake before the show
Patrick and Jake’s like boy I love this parlay that Patrick put together what is it and why do you like it uh Scotty sheffler and Max h both to finish inside the top 20 you got to remember it’s only an 80 man field there’s no cut this week
They’re going to shed the amers at the halfway point but all the professionals get 72 holes you look at Scotty Sheffer the guy eats Breeze and finishes inside the top 20 and then Max H riding I believe it’s 11 straight top 15s going back to last year as well very
Comfortable spot for him and I I just I just love the way both of them profile the way both of them are playing and so top 20 80 Manfield the top quarter of it you get four rounds it’s pretty much like a physical fitness test at that
Point the longer they go the cream Rises to the top so I like that at plus 125 well we assume they get four rounds but I guess we’re gonna kind of gonna kind of find out how this plays out uh this weekend um we’ll see I I think I my
Prediction if I were to make a bet on it I’d say this goes 54 holes and they call it on Saturday I I don’t know that necessarily the tour really wants to do that for an elevated event but just a hunch now counselor you have three top
30 bets and you’re going with a guy that you haven’t mentioned before you talked about Harmon you talked about Brennon Todd but Eric Cole’s an interesting one especially coming off a missed cut last week yeah just so everybody knows the reason I did T30 I mean this is an event
Again these these elevated events designated events if you will they they’re 80 players right so it’s it’s it’s hard to get a good price on a guy you really like in the top 40 Market with that said if if if you only have the top 40 Market available to you and
Like top 20 top 10 I think the Brian Harman and Brendan Todd numbers are going to be palatable at least somewhat palatable in those markets but again they’re going to be at at a minus price of course because again only 80 people in this field but I’ll start with with
What you wanted me to start with Eric Cole top 30 he was certainly well inside the top 30 last year when he played here he really profiles well here first of all his finishing positions I mean 21st 13th 14th third second outside of the the miscut last week at Farmers which
Really wasn’t the best cour course fit for him but his finishing positions have been really dominant and honestly when you look at his approach and you look at his short game he profiles so well for this course so unless unless the weather gets the best of him somehow I don’t see
Him falling outside of the top 30 so minus 110 I’m very willing to to play and then I I already mentioned Brian Harman Brendan Todd at plus money I’d be shocked if if both of these guys were outside the top 30 I mean I certainly have a little bit more confidence in in
Brian Haron rather than Brendan Todd but I definitely think both of them can fit inside the top 30 and I’m getting plus money for both boy plus money as we always discuss plus money always a good thing especially when it comes to golf bets going with three plus money bets
Here uh for finishing positions let’s go Jason day top 10 at plus 400 eight top 10s in 14 total trips to Pebble Beach but no wins he hasn’t had a top 10 since a T2 at the Open Championship last July but I guess we could say he’s due and
He’s a horse for the course so at four to one to finish in the top 10 sounds good to me speaking of a guy that’s red hot worldwide a fellow Aussie Adam Scott top 20 at plus 190 he has top 10 in seven of his last 10 stroke play events
Around the world and the one time that he did play here most recently a t7 in the 2019 US Open where I would say that the conditions were probably more difficult than an average a T&T Pebble Beach proam this week though I mean normally that would be an obvious answer
This week who knows with that weather and as Patrick talked about earlier uh was it Patrick McKenzie Hughes uh maybe it was you seea okay see uh top 40 I mean that’s you just got to finish the top half of the field at even money he
Has a T10 and t16 and five appearances here and at the seaside course at the RSM classic in November he gained more than eight Strokes putting and so the key for him this week is the flat stick all you got to do is finish halfway up
The board and we get even money for it sounds good to me and by the way if you’re gonna make these bets there’s one place where it really makes sense to make this bets because it’s the only sports book who pays out ties for finishing positions and that is B MGM
You can also if you’re not a customer bgm what are you doing here new bmgm customers can sign up today and get $158 in bonus bets just your first wager of at least $5 and you’ll receive $158 instantly in bonus bets regardless of your Wagers outcome with bonus code edge1 158 that’s
Edge8 now before we get to the winners let’s hear from one of our sponsors can you believe the Super Bowl is almost here it’s going to be an absolute wild week next week with the Waste Management Phoenix Open where one Patrick McDonald and I will be hanging out in the rain as
It’s uh apparently uh scheduled it’s the forecast is not pretty there either but let’s talk about this week and outrights speaking of a wild weekend Patrick I really like your first pick here you’ve talked about him as Mr California so this is he’s won I believe at three of
The four California courses on tour but he hasn’t won at this one I would say he’s due yep three of the four four wins overall out of his half dozen on the PGA tour Max 18 to one the thing I like about Max is he can kind of get it done
In multiple ways he can get it done with the irons if the short game is needed and it’s a scrappy week because of the weather we’ve seen him come through at a wet windy rainy TPC pomac when he won the Wells Fargo Championship as well and
We can see him get really hot with the putter especially on poana it kind of betrayed him a little bit there at the farmers but I I like him to bounce back I like the work he’s putting in so H’s the pick at 18 to1 I do love colum
Morawa this week at 20 to1 I love the course fit I know the history is n there I’m fine with him missing the cut last week after 18 poor holes that happens to everyone even call him morawa e see the issue I do have where I guess some
Hesitation is morawa does struggle in weather oh he’s an Open championship winner it was a good weathered Open Championship he is not necessarily the most creative player in the world but if you give him a ton of wedge opportunities he is number one from 50
To 100 yards top five from 100 to 150 over a long term so I’m willing to take a risk I know it’s a steep price at 20 to1 but I do see some value in it it’s just the weather that’s making me a little uh more hesitant than I should be
Well I and I totally get that I’m hesitant because I watched that back nine at Tory Pines on Friday or on Thursday and I was ready to throw something at my TV because I had an outright on Colin morawa who was five under after the first day thinking all
Right it’s time to go catch Hoy gard and whoever else was up there on the board and instead he’s going backwards hitting shots that were not good can he bounce back this week at that at that price okay you know what I’ll take your word for it you know your stuff I’m rolling
With it now counselor you’re picking a couple of guys that haven’t won in a while so they’re trying to get off the schneid here JT at 25 to1 it’s an appealing price but why do you like them this week yeah 25 to1 22 to1 in certain
Places I noticed bmgm still has him at 25 to1 other places at 22 so try to shop your lines try to get the best line so shout out to Joshua Lucero in the chat he says JT right on C I was thinking the same thing so JT is one of those guys I
Mean to a much lesser extent I talked about this well really with almost everybody I talked about but when I was talking about Brandon woo like just real quick I’m not making a comp here but Brandon woo in DFS he’s just one of those guys that like to me getting four
Rounds like he you knowing that the game the recent form is really trending like I think he could be a good DFS play can he win the tournament no Justin Thomas he’s trending in the same way Leo approach game appears to be back the short game is there he’s going to be
Dialed in with the wedges like Patrick alluded to earlier in the show and so I think the price is too long I don’t think the market has caught up to where Justin Thomas’s game actually is I I like not to say that this is some gross misprice but I think Justin Thomas
Probably should be in the like 22 to1 like he is in certain places maybe even 18 to1 I know this is a completely packed field but I think this is a good course fit for Justin Thomas I think he is trending in in a major way not just
Like a soft Trend I think this like we’re really seeing something from Justin Thomas great course fit great Trend like the number at 25 to one Tony fow is a guy I never bet I truly never bet it he always and that just might
Might be a like a me thing like I just never get Tony fow right with that said now that his number has crept all the way to 40 to1 I have to consider it last week he was pretty underwhelming like t69 but on approach gaining 4.56 and
Really on approach over the last I mean it’s been a while he’s been really good on approach where he’s been kind of Miss is with the Putter and we saw that last week he lost a bunch of Strokes with the putter but with these po greens and especially with these weather conditions
And and the wet greens like I I think it’s really tricky to evaluate who’s going to be successful on these greens so I do think Tony F now can rebound I he did just gain putting two tournaments ago four tournaments ago it hasn’t been there for him but it wouldn’t shock me
At all if it gets there and if it does when you consider his approach play and is is typically good around the green play I think 40 to1 is again this is a guy that probably should be in like that 32 33 to1 range I’m catching him at 40
Now I can finally bet Tony fow with some piece of mind that’s fair enough makes sense to me Patrick question from the chat from Josh the tney goes only three days does that benefit longer odds golfers or top tier guys probably longer OD golfers because
Sunday is on the PGA tour in general are just a completely different beast and I hate to bring them up cuz I have a soft spot for him but look at someone like Tommy Fleetwood who hasn’t p and how often he’s been close but hasn’t been
Been able to close on Sunday so it’ll be interest interesting to see how they handle the announcement you know right if it’s just going to be they finish three rounds and then after the fact they say we can’t play anymore or if it’s going to be a before fact type of
Deal it’s uh it’s a weird week just all around I do have to like make sure everybody understands if they joined us late we’re not saying with any sort of like definition that this is only going to go three rounds we’re just kind of speculating based on all the stuff we
Talked about at the beginning of the show it could obviously very well go the 72 holes yeah by the way Tommy Fleetwood is on my list of can’t bet him to win outright after watching what happened at the RBC Canadian open last year when Nick Taylor you know ran him down and
Fleetwood had so many opportunities even in the playoff he’s on my can’t bet it on top list yeah but EC you can’t do that to him CU Nick Taylor like was that like a 71 foot P but still he should have won like holes beforehand Tom yeah
You’re bringing up like all my uh skeletons right now it’s it’s unbelievable he was minus 500 on the 18th t no yeah yeah yeah was golf betting is some of the most painful experiences when it comes to to it is I mean there’s you know you you watch a
Football game or a basketball game and you lose on the last second shot but you invest four days in the golf tournament and you get all the way down I mean if you had Meo Pereira at the what was it 2022 uh PG or 2 was it 2021 or 2022 PGA
Championship and and yeah and then he just collapses on the 18 I had him I had a live bet on Meo at that point and the dude hits it in the wilderness and then double Bogies doesn’t even make a playoff like you can’t ever bet that guy
To win again even on live he just he’s not going to win it just he doesn’t have it you know last week what we saw uh jger I mean he just wasn’t he’s a guy down the stretch I’m just personally I need to see something before I pick him
To win that’s just my take on it uh see David talk has a question or he brought up a great bet actually a parlay uh on on our chat here Rory mroy Xander shley Max hom top 20 at plus 290 do you like the odds for those three combined no
Such thing as a great three-leg parlay that’s my answer I mean listen I think it’s fine I would never bet that like to one like one of those three guys we’re talking about the top 20 Market this is like full of talent really like down the
Board uh one of those three guys has a misstep I mean don’t get me wrong plus 290 is a really nice number I just generally don’t bet those if you want to put two in a parlay I get that three I think you’re pushing it when it comes to
Golf which there’s just so much variance C is not going to want to hear my uh my one of my long shot bets uh oh but let me get to my outrights here I’m going I know Patrick was fading him earlier I’m going Jordan spe here at plus two at
Plus 2,000 so 20 to1 you can you know shop around 18 to1 is where I’ve seen him but 20 to1 is the best number as we talked about a win in six top 10 and 12 appearances at Pebble Beach he gained six Strokes on the green to finish third
At the sentury as Patrick mentioned and this just one of those courses where I would blindly bet Jordan spe and the other one where you blindly bet him well I guess there’s two of them Augusta National and then uh Harbortown right afterwards he’s just great at all three
Of them the history horse for the course I know he’s going to be high owned in DFS I’m putting my money where my mouth is on Jordan Speed I also but if you were to ask my oneandone my top pick this week it’s Matt Fitzpatrick you can
Get him as high as plus 3500 you know when he uh played here in 2019 he had a T12 he was T6 at this event in 2022 he excels on link style and Coastal courses and he also excels on courses with small green complexes so a few of those
Courses where let’s say the greens are smaller than most Harbor toown where he won last year the country club remember the 2022 US Open which he won in Pebble Beach wouldn’t you say he’s due to complete the trifecta at that price sign me up I’m good with that all right
Finally it’s the long shot section now I do my parlays here but the guys have some long shot bets CIA we’ll start with you on this one you’re going back to a guy that you talked about earlier in the show The Sweet swinging Lefty Brian Harmon yeah no need to be labor the
Point on Brian Harmon 90 to one is just too long for Brian Haron I I actually think he has win Equity here and again we’ve seen him very recently win with this type of cast in terms of the talent of this field so again I think he’s a
Good course fit I think he can get hot for four rounds 90 to1 a great price sep straa I mean I I gotta be honest with sep straa among all the long shots like I considered a lot Grio was the one that I considered Adam shank is one I
Considered the problem with sep straka is his around the green game and if that really becomes a factor and if he’s if he’s as bad as he normally is around the green like he kind of has no shot here especially this particular week but at
110 to one knowing that he also has win potential he’s actually cashed in on outrights before and and the fact that he can get so dialed in with the approach game I just think at 110 to one I think I’m willing to speculate with a
Guy that I know can close on Sunday and a guy that I know can get hot with the Putter and be dialed in on a broach all right I I gotta admit he’s also on my ex list there last week I had a parlay of three matchups I needed SE straa to make
A birdie on his last hole on Thursday and he bogied it not a a par would have tied me against Eric Cole and he lost it with a bogey On a par five what are we doing here come on come on Seth you’re killing me all right Patrick Harris
English you’re back on uh you’re back on our guy here plus 110 110 to one why do you like him I don’t think I’ve heard a better harp on his losses as much as match up it wasn’t even an outright you gotta snap you know snap the wrist
Walk away snap the wrist walk away no I Harbor I Harbor I Harbor my losses go ahead with English Harris English 110 to one like I said during the DFS segment he’s gonna have to drive the golf ball well but we saw him pop up in Big Time tournaments this is a guy
Who has won Big Time tournaments before this past season contended at the API a signature event Wells Fargo signature event the US Open as well super volatile super Boomer bust but that’s kind of what you want down in triple digits so I will take the former top 10 player in
The world at 110 to one I couldn’t pick a triple digit winner to save my life let’s be honest uh I trust you guys for that me so I just do parlays in this section going top 10 parlay spe and Max hom Patrick gave the rationale for hom
Uh SP uh I gave the rationale for him I think h i mean that was the third guy that I that I wanted to add if I were to do a third outright think H very well could complete the California slam uh this particular week the California
Sweep you know four wins six top 10s in 11 California events since playing here in 2021 you’re getting that at seven to one for a top 10 and that includes ties uh and a top 20 parlay cover your ears seea Xander schle Colin moraa Matt Fitzpatrick plus 600 I like Xander here
Five top 10 or just in general but he has five top 10 in his last five on American soil and he was T3 at the US Open in 2019 all right before we end the show we’re going to talk about a couple of players I’m going to ask you each
About one player that we have not discussed Patrick I’ll start with you Patrick Klay really good course history here recent form not so good which way are you leaning this week I do not like to bet on Patrick KL in bad weather environments because of his injury
History if you have heard him talking about how much work and effort it takes for him just to get ready to play around at golf it is very extensive given his back uh so because of that because of some shortcomings with the irons and the putter recently I’m okay passing on him
But I totally understand if you want to the guy’s a stud um and Alex Alex Jones asked in the chat if he has if I have any thoughts on Liv this week I kind of like Walky Neeman me too yep yeah yeah what are the odds on on Neiman do you
Guys know 14 to one 14 y That’s what I wrote up in in the live column that I put on Sportsline was my top guy good call there y cool uh see I want to ask you about Victor hlin last year’s FedEx Cup champion we went the whole show
Pretty much didn’t talk about him your thoughts on him this week I like Victor a lot actually he was he was potentially an outright for me I think it was what is he 14 or 12 to one at this point it was a little too short given the talent
Of the field and given the fact that we haven’t seen a ton of Victor lately I think I’m gonna play him in DFS I’ll say that I think he’s fine in the outright market I’ll probably wait and just try to catch maybe a longer number after day
One or day two that that’s one of those things where that’s why I’m trying to reserve some of my outright bank roll maybe for a guy like Victor hin maybe I catch him at 20 to1 after he slips a little bit or somebody gets really hot
In round one or round two I think Victor hoplin is gonna have a great tournament and for the record when it comes to the weather uh we know that that that shouldn’t phase him one way or the other so I think Victor is a great play this
Will be a fascinating weekend to watch and who knows if we’re gonna have a Monday finish we may have to we may not have certain lines out on Tuesday night when we record this show next week for my favorite Tournament of the year the Phoenix Open but guys uh great show once
Again want to point out everybody you know go to sports line if you’re a Sportsline member between the uh between the three of us we have five columns up I have a fantasy rankings column and I have live up this week CA has his expert picks column which hopefully will’ll
Have first round leaders if they ever released Patrick has a strategy and a Best Bets column that you do not want to miss so check that out uh on Sportsline want to thank our producer Jake as always for putting together a fine show want to thank the counselor CAD the
Great Patrick McDonald IMC as I always like to say let’s hit it big good luck
