In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Steve Schirmer wakes up early Monday morning to preview the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill. Steve pulls up the Google Earth imagery to take you on a tour of both golf courses of the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the types of holes each player will face. Then he previews what types of players and skillsets he favors for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am using the tools available on DataGolf.
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Bonus and there’s only a few days left to get 50% off everything in the sjpn merch store with promo code playoffs all right d Jens good morning uh this feels a little bit like morning radio Zoo uh for Sports Talk I’m up at 6: am doing a preview of Pebble
Beach why because I am completely dedicated to you guys and I simply cannot go a week without doing a preview for you all so uh thank you for listening uh if you’re going to be watching and joining us on YouTube this morning thank you as well uh make sure
You subscribe to the YouTube channel also make sure you download uh subscribe to the golf Gilling podcast on Spotify and apple wherever you can listen to podcast whatever your medium is please give us a rate and review as well we always appreciate that and I apologize for not doing a preview until this
Morning I just went down to Florida visit the parents and I happen to bring along my seventh month-old on a plane and while she was incredibly good she was a 10 out of 10 everybody loved her she only cried maybe towards the end because she was just sick of being on
Planes at that point uh it’s a lot of logistics bringing around kids so uh thank you for your patience uh and allowing me to bring it to you this morning the column will probably be up around lunchtime I have the pieces of it uh put together by have the main points
So I can actually go over everything with you all today uh and we are going to the AT&T Pebble Beach proam this week a slightly different format a much needed a change I think to this thing so probably as a little hat tip to AT&T one
Of the biggest sponsors of the PJ tour considering the fact that this tournament usually was a bye for most people most people didn’t want to go play The proam Format go out to Monterey Bay even though this is a really good golf course or well you know it’s a
Iconic golf courses there’s some flaws with it but it’s iconic uh golf course this was a bye this a very busy schedule for the PJ T but uh throwing them a bone this year they made this a signature event this is the second signature event
Of the Season that means the top 50 in lers fexs cup gets automatic exemptions into this I think anybody in top 30 also gets exemptions there was the next 10 from last fall who has an exemption there’s the best five from the last three tournaments which I don’t think
They ever showed any live standings during the broadcast of who was eligible in fighting for that say letby it is what it is they’re still trying their best they’re not perfect but uh this is a no cut event 80 guys uh there will be a prom format to this thing but is only
Thursday and Friday everybody will only play Pebble Beach and spy glass Hill Thursday and Friday and then the amateurs are cleared out so if you are a fan of Bill Murray throwing around clubs around bunkers or you really love those Ray Romano uh post round interviews I’m
Sorry they won’t even be here I think actually only athletes are going to be playing the proam none of no movie stars none of you know none of that so apologies if you actually like those people uh as part of your program experience I personally didn’t I thought
That took away a lot from the weekend coverage they spent way too much time you know highlighting you know Carlton uh or yeah Carlton you know uh doing the dance there on the green or Ray Romano or you know Gary Muer it listen just
Show us the golf this is one of the best golf courses or one of the most iconic golf courses in in the country country just show us the golf course on the weekend not the amateurs but after Friday uh there’s no cut but everybody will go play Pebble Beach uh Saturday
And Sunday uh it’s similar to what happened back in covid where they only played spy glass Hill and Pebble Beach those first two days and everybody played Pebble monter Peninsula is not in the rotation this year which is a shame it’s actually a good golf course but
They never showed it so you never really knew but um just spy glass Hill and Pebble and I’ll in a little bit I’ll go through Google Earth and I will show you uh both golf courses as far as who’s in the field obviously Rory maory is in the
Field he is making EPG tour debut this week uh he just won over in Dubai finished second in another de Dubai which he probably should have won he have duck hooking it into the water on Sunday one thing I did notice with Rory watching him is he’s having a little
Trouble with the driver a little bit a little bit of trouble with the lefts uh a little bit of trouble you know uh with the hooks a little bit I know he sent one in the water to lose at Tommy Fleetwood in the Dubai Invitational he
Ended up winning La a couple weeks ago at the Abu Dhabi or not the Abu Dhabi whatever it’s called but he also was sending shots pretty far left so maybe that’s something to watch here uh that really only gets you in trouble hitting it left on 18 but that’s a very crucial
Shot you got to hit your dver there obviously you don’t want to hit on the beach that’s something to watch but you know as far as everybody else you know you got Scotty Klay Xander those are your notables all the big names going to be here but we’ve been what I think the
Biggest storyline the first couple weeks is shock is not hitting at the top of the board uh Chris Kirk was over 1001 he won the century Tournament of Champions you had Grayson Murray surprising everybody at 525 the one or whever he was beating popular Keegan Bradley who I
Was on and popular Ben on who a lot of other people are on uh you had an amateur win the MX after Sam burn who I was on hit it in the water on 17 and then you had a bunch of guys who weren’t used to being up towards the top at
Tor’s Pines you had you know Steph joerger you had Matthew pavon you had Nikolai hoard who I really like who’s the most talented of the four guys were really baling out um you know heading into Sunday there but he hadn’t really proven much on the PGA T at all you had
Thomas dri who is just a famous Heartbreaker obviously he broke everybody’s hearts on Saturday got at least that out of the way but then he had a couple Chasers trying to make a run on Sunday with Xander and Fino and hom a little bit and none those guys
Could really get up there and that and what end up happening was 125 to one Matthew Pavan ended up winning and I have some theories as far as maybe why some long shots are hitting is it just golf and this is just kind of you know
This is just how it is where it’s unpredictable and sometimes just lucky bounces go towards certain way and unlucky ones go another way you know possibly I know we went on a very long run of guys who under 50 to1 in shock hitting for outright it was a very
Lucrative time I think for a lot of gamblers and this is a little bit of a struggle now I think you also have a little bit of this is a lame duck year with a PJ T there’s a lot of uncertainty what the actual schedule will look like
Going forward uh I know that’s a common complaint about Liv where you know it’s not really there’s no Stakes to anything and who knows what the stakes really are to a lot of these you know non Signature Events that we’re seeing to some of the
Top guys you know are they mailing in a little bit are they just here for sponsors and I don’t know I mean I think there also might be to the fact that these quote unquote mules the uh non-stars they’ve been treated very poorly over the last six to 12 months
Hearing a lot of negative things maybe they’re just a little more motivated now maybe they’re focusing a little more on their game and they know that they need to sink or swim at this point maybe it’s the Confluence of all those things why we’re hting seeing a lot of longer shots
Winning right now and maybe why it’s a little more unpredictable but I think this week as far as the betting board I think everybody is going to take the first four weeks and say look this is clearly a trend only 100 to one guys or long shots are going to win pj2 events
Now where we’re just going to start loading up and this is the perfect golf course really to do it at uh you know taking long shots where it’s you don’t hit driver a whole lot there’s a lot of short irons it’s you know putting on POA
You know that can be kind of tricky small greens this would be a very tempting time to just say you know what I’m going to go with the trend that AOW long shots but I doing this gambling for a while now it seems like that Trend I think it’s gonna
End this week I think I think I think a favor is finally G to get it done you have the first real signature event of the Season you have 80 guys and favorites do tend to win here as we’ll go through some of the winners in recent times so I think I’m just
Going to still stick to the strategy I’m probably still going to try and find Value at the top of the board and if I end up missing on an outright that’s a longer shot say la hopefully I hit positionals and can float you know my betting card
That way so why don’t we take our first break and then we will fire up Google Earth and we will go over briefly uh Pebble Beach and spy glass which you may not have seen and then we’ll start getting into the Nitty Gritty of uh the
18t P Beach proam all right and this podcast is brought to you by Underdog Underdog fantasy has a way to play alongside your favorite fantasy players all season long yeah NFL NBA NHL college basketball golf by the way and college football which isn’t around anymore but you can play that under fantasy when
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Underdog picks right now available but given uh some rocky weather that will go over in a little bit I would expect some pretty high scores especially on Pebble Beach and we’ll go over exactly why that’s the case uh in bad weather you want to maybe avoid guys playing Pebble
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On Pebble Beach if you’re watching if you’re crazy enough to be watching this right now at 6: am uh first of all thank you by the way uh if you’re even listening to this you chances are you’re a very hardcore fan this is very indepth not silly podcast that I do
Every Sunday or Monday because I was too exhausted last night to do it you know Pebble Beach you have watched this tournament you have seen multiple us opens here you know really what you’re going to expect here it’s a lot of plotting positional less than driver golf with some wider Fairways obviously
You have the opportunity to uh incur a penalty choke if you hit it off the Fairway into the beach mostly on the front nine where if you are missing the ball left it’s going to go in the ocean here just a couple things I want to point out I want to
Emphasize why exactly it’s kind of an awkward golf course and there’s a couple reasons for it you know obviously you have off the tea it can be very awkward there’s some awkward t- shots and I’ll show you a couple examples here and just with some of the approach shots too
We’ll get to uh some of the difficulties in terms of how difficult it is compared to other golf courses in The Strokes game categories and with the ball striking sistes actually even though scoring can be pretty good at Pebble be sometimes in good weather it’s one of the tougher ball striking golf courses
On the PJ tour well before I get to that uh I do want to show and I’m I apologize to the Jim Nance uh this is actually Jim Nance’s house right here I have a little push pin and why do I know that Jim Nance lives here well there’s a bunch of
Videos that actually show him uh people playing uh the replica of the seventh green of Pebble Beach in his backyard and you know it’s pretty humorous he’s got the Masters theme going Jim N is commentating it and listen Jim if you want some privacy maybe don’t build one
Of the most famous Greens in all of golf in your backyard and make it very easy to find on Google Earth basically just look at the neighborhood and say oh hey there’s the seventh Green in somebody’s backyard that must be Jim n’s house so that is Jim n’s house uh lucky guy um
Cypress Point member uh living in basically G Paradise uh in a better location than I certainly live in Rochester New York uh good for him he’s worked hard now back to the actual uh seriousness of this golf podcast I I want to show a couple like awkward
T-shots and some of the examples of it and why you know this can be susceptible to some Randomness as far as the leader word as far as there are certain golf courses where the shorter hitters the guys who weing his leite driving can compete this is definitely one of those
And this here’s an example right here here’s the third hole the sharp dog leg left and what you’re looking at from the t-box here you have a tree directly right in front of the T box to your left over here you got more trees over to the
Distance that are a little taller and you’re just looking straight at you know a fairway that runs out to three bunkers over here and it’s a short par for it’s only 44 yard so you have seen guys try and cut the corner over here the problem
Is you got toit hit a huge hook in order to basically get up over the trees here get around this tree over here and then who knows where it’s going to go obvious you know Pros don’t like hitting the ball left because you can’t really control it and the ball ends up bounding
Maybe in the rough over here or if they don’t draw it enough it ends up in some of these bunkers over here you know so it’s not just blasted away hit it over the trees there’s some definitely an awkwardness to this t-shot here uh let’s
Go over to number six this is the start of probably one of the most famous three hole stretches in all Gulf six seven and eight and while the t-shot really isn’t all that awkward you know it’s a pretty wide Fairway here you got some bunkers over here you know obviously you don’t
Want to hit in the beach over on the right over as well but reason why this is an awkward hole is this you have to hit up into a plateau that’s about 40 feet above you surrounded by bunkers into a very small green and you can’t
See the green on this par five it’s only 523 yards but hitting it uphill here and just hoping and praying that you hit a three-wood you know relatively close yeah it it can be kind of a nervy shot especially when you have rocks and the and the cliffs over on the right side
Here you have pretty thick rough over here this is also a hole you have to birdie uh you know it’s especially in bad weather it can you know birdi can be hard to come by at Pebble Beach that’s another awkward approach shot um number eight over here uh this is
Where Jordan Speed almost died where he attempted to hit off the cliff over here I think now they uh I think they mark it as a penalty area now where they don’t like guys do that obviously you don’t really want to see Scotty sheffler or
Xander Take a Tumble uh down to the CL unless you’re my co-host and hate those guys uh maybe he does but again this is less than driver to a very wide Fairway but this is you’re setting up just your second shot and you got to hit it over
The cliff a very long approach shot this green also is very difficult to hit um I think they’ve done some softening to it over the last couple years to try to make it a little more receptive but you know small Target over the cliff here uh
It’s in a little bit of a bull so if you do Miss to the left I think that getting up and down is uh very difficult especially if the greens are running a little quick and the wind’s up so again kind of awkward um hole you know and you
Know that can make guys you know a little uncomfortable uh this longer par three here it’s the 202 yard par 31 12 again like there’s a lot of really well protected greens at Pebble Beach this is an example of it this is a long approach shot where it’s all carry you can’t you
Know it’s a very narrow mouth opening to The Green right over here you have a large bunker protecting almost the entire green up in the front here you know I mean and if depending on where their pin is if you do Miss in this front bunker you’re not getting up in
Down so yeah I mean it’s it’s that’s a lot of the defenses that this awkwardness as far as the t- shots taking drivers off your hands and well protected greens this is an example of that with a large bunker protecting the front uh and most of the left side of
The green on 12 here number 14 another par five one of the more difficult par fives on the PGA tour um hold on I nope there it is so again this actually speaks to the awkwardness that off the team and with your approach play another awkward driving hole here sharp dog leg right
Where it the Fairway runs out pretty quick if you try and cut the corner here you have out of bounds over here as well so if you really are sending it you know a little far to right you can hit in someone’s yard here some pretty thick
Rough over here as well to deter anybody you know if you hit in the rough from going the green and two it it just it’s not again just straightaway bomb away you kind of got think about it where you want it there is a certain degree of position
Precision that’s needed at Pebble Beach even though the fairways are fairly wide and again another very well protected green uh you know there’s a large false front down here that collects if you if you if your green or ball ends up you know on the right side of the green here
It’s probably going to roll down to the collection area again another Well guarded uh green small green with a large bunker G on the left side here there’s a a collection areas down Behind the Green so it’s it’s a difficult green to hit uh in well in at least two uh
Especially from longer range even with just a wedge as well there’s a lot of trouble guys find themselves uh hitting into this green on the par five 14th I think a couple years ago when I was on speed he made kind of a mess of this
Hole didn’t B didn’t birdie it and they end up losing the tournament and then um the last one then number 17 uh one of the more famous uh holes at Pebble Beach just plays back into uh the bay here an hourglass shaped green as well well protected Again by a
Large front bunker I think uh spe actually buried his ball into the front the face of the bunker and that’s why he couldn’t get up down that’s why he really blew I think the 2021 uh Pebble Beach Pro am here but again small targets here not a whole lot to work
With a longer approach especially when the wind is up uh this is all penalty area over to the left over here don’t hit it over there you’re going to see a lot of guys you know either bail out a bunker if the pin is over in the front
Maybe they’ll bail out way right here and try and get up you know kind of trip over I think uh famously Gary Woodland the pin was over all the way on the left at the 2019 US Open he put his t- shot over on the right side of the green here
On the right side of the hourglass and up actually chipping over the Little Neck to get it about three feet uh that ended my hopes that BR kka would end up wi he something cashing out right sorry a lot of close calls from me over the years guys and then uh the 18
Again one of the most iconic closing holes of all of golf obviously if you’re missing left like Rory maoy struggling with recently you hit into the beach you have a tree right in the middle of the Fairway here most guys are long enough now to basically hit over it but you
Know if the wind is up that you know you can end up maybe in this bunker here or maybe you know have some tree trouble if you really really you know if winds if you really hit it short but again not a ton of room to work with with the
Approaches and we’ll talk about uh this is one of the tough for uh approach shot golf courses on the PJ tour just nowhere really to work with here small green again very well protected by a front bunker here you have a tree over here so even if you bail out right you might
Have some tree trouble you have to contend with and then you just have a little bunker here and then the beach most of the time you’re going to see guys um either bail out in the bunker if they hit the Fairway or if they in the rough this is automatic
Layup hole you’re not messing with that so that’s just kind of the awkwardness of Pebble Beach and why um you know it’s not your traditional PG toour vomit out there short iron there’s a lot of short irons here but there’s a little more thought that you know you have to put
Into this place um and a certain degree of precision especially just with how small the targets are we’ll talk about a little bit let’s have about spy glass Hill though this is probably a golf course probably haven’t seen a whole lot except unless you watch PJ live and this
Is a Robert Trent Jones I think he was built in the 60s every single hole at spy glass Hill here had some sort of name reference or to Treasure Island so I don’t know exactly the names of every single hole but all of them are named after something from that book if
You’re a big fan of that book you’ll you know probably appreciate that and I will say this about spy glass Hill this is probably the weakest of the three that are usually played the first opening five holes are are very good and it really gets you off to a great start as
Far as if you’re playing this place so first hole here another sweeping dog leg left par five 595 yards down the hill you you’re teeing off here and then once you get around this Bend then it just opens up to you see the ocean immediately and obviously
That’s a huge draw to playing a lot of these places just seeing the ocean and right off the bat you know par five playing into you know a a not a as small greens as Pebble Beach but they’re relatively small again well guarded by bunkers but you know you’re just seeing
The ocean right off the bat it’s beautiful and then second hole here uh you know another Les a lesson driver hole to you know basically the flat fat part of the Fairway here sets up um a short iron into the green it’s all carry this hole uh third hole I think probably
One of the I think this maybe the the one of the more iconic par 3s at spy glass Hill um again just plays dramatically downhill to a small green towards the sand dunes it’s great you know you’re having a great time this fourth green here uh you’re hitting into
A ridiculously narrow green I think the green it’s it’s yeah I’ll zoom in right here it just it looks like just a long cucumber essentially uh I think it’s like 70 yards long I I measure it actually for you guys so it is so from front to back it is 57 yards
Long but it is only about 10 yards wide now helping you if you hit your proest here it’s basically like a bull here so if you hit it to the right or left it could funnel back to the green but I mean it’s it’s it’s a cool
Shot it’s a tricky shot especially for amateur these guys kind of make it look relatively easy because they’re just so good um and then you’re going to play another uh midlength part five again along the beach you see the Rocks over here see the sand dunes but once you get past the fifth
Hole you’re done seeing the ocean you they basically blew their wad immediately and then you play end up playing back towards the forest the Del Monte forest and it just like if you’re gonna go to this area you want to play by the ocean you want to
See the coastline and you’re just not seeing it you know I mean the appeal of the spy glass Hill there is a lot of elevation changes um T to Green I’ll show you number nine here uh you’re playing up about you know 50 feet up
Ninth green here so there are you know a little bit you know type different types of shots you got to hit at spy compared to Pebble it’s mostly flat but you’re missing a lot of the ocean here uh there are some more opportunities to hit driver at spy we’ll talk about the the
Predictive skill sets as far as that might actually favor guys who hit it a little longer here it’s it’s more the fact that you can hit driver a little more most of these holes are a lot more Straight Ahead uh it’s a lot narrow to uh then Pebble Beach these Fairways
Probably range only about 25 yards wide at Pebble they’re about 40 yards wide so less room to work with you just griping a rip it kind of at this golf course there’s a couple positional holes where you know you still got to kind of be mindful you can’t just hit driver
Everywhere but overall though once you get past the fifth hole it looks like a lot of other Robert Trent Jones golf courses it’s shorter but a lot of is very straight ahead a lot of these bunkers too can be carried with a driver like this bunker over here on hole number 13
It’s only about 264 yards to the middle of it so most guys nowadays can hit over it so they’re not even really in play um but overall though I mean spy glass first five holes are great after that you know it gets a little weaker so so that’s both golf courses I hopefully
You know you enjoyed seeing spy glass Hill a little bit as far as um what it offers we’ll talk a little bit more about that when we get to the average scoring how weather can dictate how you want to approach this golf course or in this tournament but while take another
Break and then we will get into uh the nitty-gritty of this uh tournament so we are brought to you by cut cut is a peer-to-peer social betting platform that’s us-based and available in over 40 States uh peer-to-peer social betting is a new and better way to bet bet directly
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Buy your favorite item from the store that’s 50% off at the SGP merch store using promo code playoffs okay let’s get rid of Google Earth and let’s pull up the tournament fact sheet this is where I start every single year just to see if there’s anything noteworthy uh about this
Tournament that I might need to know about in advance so at Pebble Beach Pro Am this is two golf courses this year as I laid out the uh three rounds will we played at Pebble Beach one will we play at sp sp spy glass Hill uh they will play Pebble and
Spy glass first two days they will rotate that and then over the weekend all 80 players without the amateurs will go play Pebble Beach for two straight days which will be a very enjoyable uh weekend coverage just focusing on the golf and not Bill Murray so some stats
About Pebble Beach uh this is a par 72 there are four par fivs at Pebble Beach it plays a 6,9 972 yards that is the third shortest course on the PJ tour last year uh greens were only 3500 square feet in area these are tiny greens they are actually I believe the
Smallest Greens in the PJ tour yes it is they the smallest Greens in the PJ tour uh last weeks they were very small greens of Tory Pines those were 5,000 square feet so they’re even smaller Targets this week at Pebble Beach greens run pretty slow on the C meter as well
They’re only 10 and a half because you’re by the ocean if the wind is getting up you can’t Putt in these grain they have to run very slow and the weather might be uh a little bit of an issue this week we’ll get to that uh
Down the road on this podcast as far as gromy goes once again we’re playing on the poana and you saw uh a lot of guys struggle on the poana last week at Tory Pines you could see especially with some of the worm cans uh uh warm cameras just
How bumpy and you know even just hits a little tiny Bud it can send it offline there while they’re putting again on poana again you’re going to want guys who are probably pretty comfortable putting on this uh surface it’s not the easiest one to play on um as far as the
Uh rest of the agomy goes you know it’s not all that penal last week we saw really uh thick rough at Tory pin was over four inches this week it’s Ry and poana Fairways and rough only two to three inches there’s a couple areas uh
Where I think mostly on the par fives I feel like where if you miss in the Fairway or if you miss the Fairway if you’re missing the wrong side like the rough can be pretty gnarly there but overall though not really pen penal rough for the most part only two inches
Maybe three inches maybe with some of the rain they’ve been receiving lately maybe a little longer in some areas but not as Peno Rush rough as you saw last week uh at uh Tory Pines as far as uh gcsaa actually gives a little nugg about the weather it’s been very wet uh lead
UPS to this tournament probably softer greens we’re going to see a lot of rain during the tournament we’ll get to that a little bit but expect fairly soft conditions for this tournament tournament once again as far as spy glass Hill goes 7,41 yards again not a very long golf course a little longer
Than than Pebble Beach but you know still one of the shorter golf coures than the PG average green size 5,000 square feet that’s about the size of Tory Pine South last week so smaller green smaller than average on the PJ tour again po greens Rass and po not as
Thick of rough as at PEB Pebble Beach only about two inches uniform throughout the entire Golf Course uh no real changes though other than the 14th green was rebuilt um since last year’s events there’s no real way to handicap it I don’t know how they actually built it
And honestly it’s probably immaterial to the results of what you want to look for anyways don’t get caught up too much about what exactly the rebuilt 14th green means at this place um let’s go over uh the core stats here uh again like uh a couple weeks uh for the first
Couple weeks I mostly ignored this section because you’re playing really easy golf courses there not really a whole lot to talk about there but there are definitely some things to talk about excuse me for this tournament I may mention that Pebble Beach even though it can be fairly
Receptive um to scoring it’s one of the tougher ball striking tournaments on the PG tour schedule I kind of laid out a little bit why as far as like difficulty of the shot it’s not straightforward especially off the team there’s a lot of just awkwardness to a
Lot of t- shots a lot of plotting positional a lot of time you’re going to have less than driver due to the Bott neck the Fairway or the Fairway Runs Out you can’t just grip it and rip it at Pebble Beach a lot um and that reflects
Kind of in the difficulty of the golf course you know compared to other ones it’s since 2015 um it is the 21st hardest off the te so are the types of t- shots you have to hit there some years are harder than others back in 2019 it was the number
One toughest I think they had a lot of weather that year a lot of rain as well I think that was the one that Phil Michelson might have won if I believe I think that made BL blend the Monday but that had the toughest year some years
It’s it’s a lot easier but for the most part it’s one of the tougher ones off the te every single year in the pj2 the pro shots as well again very well-guarded greens very small greens small targets you have a couple holes where it’s a blind approach shot into
The green there you you know I showed the 17th hole it’s an hourglass green just it it’s a tricky uh golf course for your approach shots since 2015 it’s the 12th hardest on uh the PJ t for a lot of those reasons small targets well guarded greens especially on some of these par
Fivs too it’s not just get there in two there are some difficulties with uh at least three of the four par four par fives at this tournament around the green though even if you miss a green It’s relatively easy conditions compared to other places um it probably
Helps the fact that it’s mostly rough around all the greens not it’s not very thick either and it’s smaller greens so you don’t have you know you’re not chipping you know across country to a pin that’s well off in the distance there if you miss a green chances are
The pin’s going to be relatively close to you to get them down getting around the green here is not all that getting up and down from off the green a pebble is not all that difficult but putting though just like last week and this is a
Theme to all the PO golf courses is in California very difficult to put on this PO since 2015 it’s the sixth hardest of of all golf courses in the PG tour that they played it’s POA because of that um just term of some driving stats I may mention
That drivers taking out of your hands a lot at this golf course the average driving distance since 2015 you know it’s gone up a little bit but it’s in your low 270s the average Drive last year at Pebble Beach was 273 again drivers take out of your hands a lot at
This golf course that is actually I think the uh second shortest for uh t- shots as far as distance at on the pj2 or since then but uh it is fairly wide Fairways average driving accuracy rate is about 69.5% since 2015 mostly it’s you know high 60s low 70s
Um you know since 2015 as far as driver accy rates it’s because the fairways are fairly wide we’ll go over the Fairway uh info here about 40 yard wide Fairways and when you get a lot of rain as well at Pebble Beach they tend to be a little softer a little more receptive
To hold the fairways pretty big targets at Pebble Beach uh as far as the Miss Fairway penalty goes not very penal to miss a fairway at Pebble Beach especially with the rough you know it’s only two to three inch Rass rough it’s a little gnarly in some places I may
Mention I think you know off some of the par fivs if you’re well off of the um you know if you missing the wrong spot on some of the Pari you’re not getting their at home too that’s where they tend to grow some of the longer rough on the
On the golf course but overall though the rough is not very penal there uh I think it also speaks to the fact too like even from you know the Fairway you’re head to a very small Target there’s a good chance you might miss the green anyways so even if you’re
In the rough you might get the same outcome as somebody in the Fairway holding the same Club so that that that’s what this category measures basically it’s the difference between your average Strokes to Ho out from the rough versus the Fairway and we just mentioned too it’s pretty easy to get up
And down as well so chances are it’s if you if you even if you hit your t-shot in the Fairway or you hit in the rough there’s still a pretty good chance you can get the same score as somebody else even you miss a fairway there uh there
Is a little bit higher degree of penalties at Pebble Beach even though you know the only water hazard is the beach but again all the way down the front nine there if you miss right you’re going to hit it into the beach it’s peny stroke there’s a couple areas
On the back line as well that there’s some outabounds I think I’m whole excuse me number uh 13 and 14 I think there’s some weight Stakes if you hit it right uh that’s out of bounds and then obviously number 18 hit it left you hit on the beach there that’s an opportunity
To incur penal sh off he and and the approach shots goes uh a lot of wedges that we talk about you know I mean the green regulation rate is about 65% you know it’s it’s um a little higher than pg2 were average since 2015 but considering how many short irons you
Have into a lot of these greens that’s actually fairly low um you know you would I would probably expect if you’re ask guys to hit from the Fairway a lot and have lot shots under 150 yards I mean the green regulation weight would probably just be like 75% it’s only 65%
Here it’s because of a lot of the small greens that you that these are going face with and that explains why um it’s the 17th hardest for approach shots under 150 yards since uh 2015 and Ninth hards from over 150 a lot of that has to
Do with the par fives I feel like I showed you ho number six you’re in the Fairway but you’re hitting up into a plateau you can’t see the green it’s a small green you don’t really know where it’s go you’re probably not hitting in two number 14 you’re probably not
Hitting in two because small green wild protected has got a large false front it’s you’re probably not going to get there in two and even number 18 even if you’re in the Fairway there most guys bail on the bunker bail out right because there’s just no room left and
Small green is well protected that’s why I think a lot of the longer approach shots at pble beach number 17 as well that longer part three 202 yards but it’s an hour last green that’s why a lot of the longer approach shs of Pebble Beach are some of the tougher ones on
The PJ sewer uh and then as far as putting goes second seventh toughest since 2015 from under five feet second toughest from 5 to 15 feet that’s all po related there so tough ball striking Golf Course tough putty golf course not very tough uh around the green I’m going
To take a little break to SI of coffee all right and we’re back let’s go over the predictive skill set chart here from data golf kind of no surprise here looking at what generally is not valued as much compared to other pj2 golf courses driving as far as it
Being a predictive skill set and because it’s I laid it out drivers taking out these guys hands a lot it’s a lot more plotting positional golf with lesson driver off the te it’s not just gripping and rip it like some other places so there’s a lower correlation of guys who are
Longer uh in general and success at Pebble Beach than the average PG Tour golf course you know even though distance is still um a better predictor of success because generally guys are longer tend to be just a little better on the PJ tour but there’s less of an
Emphasis at Pebble Beach than there is at other golf courses and then but then accuracy as well again you’re not hitting a lot of driver here so looking at driving stats this week not very useful at all a lot of going to measure what they do on golf course that demand
A lot of drivers in here it’s l of irons off T’s a lot of Fairway Metals a lot of hybrids that’s not that doesn’t really show up in The Strokes gain off the te stuff so I’m not really even gonna look at that this week like like Eric Cole for
Example really bad off the T Numbers like maybe like below average he strugg to control the driver a lot but he’s not going to be asked to hit driver a ton here it’s gonna be a lot of freewoods hybrids so you know you might look at him like in your M be like
Oh like Eric C’s like not like 71st he’s not that bad but like he’s like 70th in off a te this week that might not mean anything here because the types of shots are hitting with that metric don’t apply to Pebble Beach so that’s something to
Keep in mind but as far as the other category goes higher correlation success at Pebble Beach but guys who are better iron players higher correlation success to guys who are better around the green Pebble Beach and higher correlation success as far as guys were better Putters the only thing I would really
Take from that is the iron play as I mentioned difficult appr proot you have to have some measure of precision at this place um you know because they’re tiny targets better iron players is generally would probably do better at pble Beach and same thing with the putter too you want confident Putters
Especially on POA you difficult greens to put on the around the green being a high predictor to success at Pebble Beach I don’t take a ton of stock in that I think it’s kind of like um which was the case of Wy where that also showed a higher Coalition of better guys
Who around the green doing better at uh the golf course but it might have more to do with the fact that the types of players It generally tracks you know it generally this Pebble Beach this tournament and like a tournament like wly Sony Open generally attract weaker players and they have to
Keep their cards because not as good ball Striker so they have to keep the cards based on being good around the green good Putters I think that probably explains more the higher correlation here uh now I don’t know if that’s going to be the case in uh you know with a
Better field I would suspect probably uh a little higher importance on iron play this week um as far as your better predictor than just around the green I’m not going to take a ton of stock especially with how easy it is I mean Victor hin won this as a amateur uh
Back in the US am and this was before he even got good with around the green like I he’s still mediocre but he won here so I think with a better caliber field I don’t think the round the green St is going to be as helpful for you as far as
Predicting who’s gonna be good or not I mean obviously it helps but I don’t think it’s GNA be as predict what it was in other years let’s go to spy glass Hill they actually have a predictor skill set as well I may mention that there’s more opportunities to hit
Driver at spy go Hill and lo and behold uh there’s a much higher correlation success at spy glass Hill uh with guys were along because there are more opportunity it’s more straight ahead you can hit driver you hit over a lot of the hazards that’s a probably a big reason
Definitely a lower correlation to ad Dy accuracy so bombers tend to do pretty well at spy glass part so if you’re going to do showdowns maybe load up on guys who are are a little longer they might have better success at that place but then again higher Coalition guys are
Pretty good uh with their irons smaller targets you know that makes sense higher coalation guys are pretty good with the putter that’s the PO again another higher Coalition guys were pretty good around the green B again I think that’s just the type of player that this tournament usually attracts um let’s go
Over what’s happened the last couple years so last year this was a suay finish Justin Rose w beat Brennan Todd who I had outright I have a lot of second place winners as you guys are probably found out over the years um but I remember the the weather being pretty
Bad I think on Sunday but they stopped play but in most Years and we’re only going to look at spy glass and Pebble we’re not going to worry about moner Peninsula this year because it’s not the rotation spy glass is usually the toughest golf course last year played at
08 uh over par last year on average Pebble Beach played about minus point4 so about a one and a half 1.4 stroke difference going back to 2022 uh let’s I don’t want to show that page yet this is uh Tom hogi snatching a victory from Jordan Speed he won by two
Again uh not totally difficult uh scoring editions overall for tournament but spy glass played over par plus 0.18 overpar Pebble played about minus 1.3 underpar so again about a one and a half 1.4 stroke difference uh and then going back to 2021 here Daniel Berger wins in
A pretty Bunch up leaderboard again this is when they only played two golf courses p played point8 underpar uh spos played about 1.79 overpar so a little higher uh difference there here’s the thing and this is definitely key to this week and uh after this I’ll show you the
Weather report there in most cases in good weather you want to play Pebble you need to play Pebble it’s kind of like last week when uh in good weather you have to take advantage of the Tory Pines North because that is a scoreable golf course you’re not GNA be able to get
That as much on the south course here if you get really good weather you have to take advantage of Pebble Beach so if you’re playing Showdown or if you’re looking to maybe you know you know play wave splits if you’re seeing maybe a really good weather day for guys playing
Pebble play those guys don’t play spy glass Hill but spy glass is a lot more especially in the back then as I showed you you play through the forest there in bad weather it’s way especially with wind this is the key it it’s way more protected than Pebble Beach
And so you’ll actually see spy glass in really bad weather days play easier than pebble is because Pebble there’s nowhere to hide you’re on the coast there’s no trees to really protect you it can play extremely tough if it’s in really bad weather so if you see a couple bad
Weather days you actually want to go play spy glass I mean it’s not gonna it’s still probably not going to go great for you because it’s still going to play very tough for everybody but it’s going to play a lot easier Pebble will that day so that’s where you want
To shade things and the weather looks like it’s going to be an issue this week where you’re going to have to probably do some thinking as far as where you want to play guys um it’s going to be harder for your betting card because it’s a four- day tournament but
For DraftKings definitely something you want to keep in mind it’s no cut but any Edge you can get over the field is good so let’s start with Thursday so looks like there’s a weather system coming in Wednesday tonight going to be pretty horrific conditions up to 50 m hour
Gusts a lot of rain looks like Thursday it’s going to be a lot of rain but not a lot of wind so not ideal conditions but as long as there’s not a lot of wi it’s still probably safe to play guys at Pebble uh that week that day so I would expect
Guys going off Pebble probably you know it’s probably gonna play about normal SP G be H harder on Thursday pebble’s gonna be a lot easier Friday though we’re another weather system looks like is gonna come in it’s gonna start getting a little windier not crazy winds but it’s
Going to rain all day you’re gonna have you know 15 20 mile per hour winds Pebbles way more exposed I would probably looking at this I think I I’m I’m gonna be hesitant to get my benit card out immediately I think I want guys playing Pebble first because
On Friday I think spy’s going to play a little easier with the wind here with the rain and they’re just going to be able to take better conditions with better scoring conditions Pebble on Saturday I want guys playing Pebble to start off so keep that in mind watch the
Weather throughout the week it’s be important now Saturday looks absolutely perfect pristine no wind everybody’s playing pedal it’s cold but soft golf course you know there should be good conditions but look at this weather report on Sunday especially in the afternoon here rain ire winds this is the tricky part of what
We’re doing trying to forecast out this weather report right here suggests to me that it’s probably not going to finish on Sunday so we’re looking at a Monday finish which also looks pretty dicey with the weather so that’s tough to predict you know what if the weather
Forecast you know like looking at this forecast here like if they do have to play through this really bad weather I mean no one’s going to be hitting greens it’s going to be an up and down contest I basically want scramblers and Putters um you know it it’s going to be so tough
Playing Pebble but I don’t know if they’re going to be playing in this so I’m gonna be mindful of the weather forecast next couple days but this is definitely going to be an issue at least finishing this tournament and they have to play through it you know it’s it’s gonna be a rock
Fight and there’s guys who rise to the occasions in rock fights and guys who don’t and we kind of know the difference I know my co-host knows the difference sometimes I I confuse the difference but that’s how to keep in mind the weather is GNA be a huge issue
I think overall though I want guys starting off on Pebble on Thursday that’s all I know as long as weather Port holds that’s where we go for that and then let’s far let’s go to what you actually do in tournament as far as separating yourself and what type of
Shots you hit so unfortunately we just showed in the predictive skill sets that off the te is not very predictive how you’re doing coming in noted but in tournament Performance Off The Tea much more predictive than the average pg2 golf course um it was a lot more
Predictive last year than the average P golf course as far as separating yourself and the basically guys who drove a little better that week faed a little better than everybody else it was easier to separate yourself which makes sense like if you’re booing around if you are um Hitting off the cliffs
Obviously you’re not going to drive it well the guys who are not doing that s themselves with a lot of Fairways for pro chats in you know you’re going to do a little better uh last year had uh a lot higher correlation to success with your iron play better basically better
Iron players ever separate yourselves more on the leader board than uh most P tour years that’s not the case every single year but last year in particular it was um around the green putting though much less effect towards your annual Strokes gain so this really last
Year in 2023 was more of a ball striking tournament and that makes sense Justin Rose won you know yes he lost Strokes off the te but uh for the most part most of the guys did better last year had good driving weeks they hit a lot of Fairways they avoided trouble and most
Of the better iron players like you know look like we’ll see the ranks you know Rose was 14th in his iron play Brandonwood was sixth Malina was fifth somehow he’s a terrible ball Striker he was fifth in his strok approach uh Michael Ken Kevin youu a lot of guys who
Hit their irons really good that was the way to you know basically path s success going back last year or in 2022 let’s load this up here again a lot higher basically the path two success at the 2022 P thr was off the te which unfortunately is not predictive so we
Don’t really know who’s going to be great off the tea coming you know at this tournament but that’s one of the key indicators to success and separating yourself at this place which makes it a very difficult tournament to kind of handicap on top of the weather issues
That we’re going to have um in 20122 Iron play wasn’t quite as effective but still you know one of the more predictive measurements uh putting was a little more important in 22 around the green again not important probably the easiest uh conditions around the green
Is my is what I would Su suspect for it going back 2021 again higher importance of around the green play uh not as much again around the uh with your scrambling and iron play but a higher importance with your putting again that turned into another putting contest i’ have to try
And think like what the like why those particular years it might be I think there were better scoring years maybe easier so maybe because they turn a little more ating contest and I know last year it was worse weather for the most part so maybe that’s why maybe I want to
Shade more towards better ball striking as more predictive I don’t know I gotta mle that over but overall though the general trend is the biggest takeaway to the in tournament success measurements is we’re at a tournament where it’s not predictive what one does coming in with with how they do off the te
However off the te is the way to separate yourself of this place more than the average pg2 stop it’s not the biggest and most important way obviously putting and iron play is still more important for the most part is gaining Strokes on the field but driving was a
Little more important uh and then your approach sh distribution it’s a lot of short irons uh you know obviously a higher rate of shots from un from 100 to 125 from 75 to 100 from 50 75 you know there’s a lot of short par fours at Pebble Beach there’s
Also I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that a lot of these greens uh these par fivs a lot of guys lay up and it’s a three shot hole so there’s a lot of wedges into a lot of these greens
Too uh it’s pretty much a dead zone from between 125 and 200 though a lot less shots between 125 and 200 than the average pg2 were sto a little more from 225 I think a couple of the power 3es are over 200 yards I know number two obviously that’s a two shotter for
Everybody that’s one of the longer approach shots but overall though this is a lot of shorter part uh uh Pro shots in the tournament going back 2022 pretty much the same thing most of the shots stream under 125 um you know there’s a couple longer Pro shots a little longer or more
Than PG average but again pretty much dead between 12 200 so anybody who’s really good from like their 125 200 Club you’re not going to use as much uh 2021 here same thing lot CH 125 a very high proportion of it a little more from over
200 that year now what’s missing in this data though is spy glass and I actually went through and just estimated based on where I think the approach shots are going to come from at spy glass so this is the splits I have and this will be in
My column they’ll be up around lunchtime today I still got to edit a little bit but this is the splits I have for spy glass so under 150 yards nine shots about half your shots are going to come from under 150 yards again you know it’s pretty driver or heavy so you can
Shorten up a lot of these holes even though it’s a little longer but still only 7,000 yards and there’s still some shorter par fours as well so50 yards about nine shots again another dead zone between 150 and 200 yards only five shots that’s less and pg2 were average but and 200 plus yards
Um 20% or uh about um four shots around so those are all your par fivs all of them are pretty Regional I don’t think there’s any par 3es of spy glass that over 200 yards so your composite average taking three rounds of pebble and one round of spy glass this
Is if you want to use like your Strokes gain per shot at uh the data golf offers this is how you want to split it up so from under 150 yards I got 45.8% of your shots are going to come from under 150 yards that’s like 33 out of 72 I think
Um that’s much higher than pg2 average I think the PG average is only like 37 % so it’s a lot higher from under 150 for 15 15200 yards it’s only 26.5% that’s a lot lower than PG average and then 200 plus yards 28.1% that’s slightly higher PG average so for proximity stats for
Your iron stuff you know Iron play coming in is highly predicted to success you want to focus more on the guys who are pretty good from shorter range and um you know with a little bit of your uh over 200 as well for your par
Fives and some of the longer par 3es but overall though this is going to be a short iron contest and that makes sense you know Tom hogi won this really good short iron player Daniel Burger won this really good short iron player Nick Taylor’s won this really a short iron
Player Jordan spe has won this Brandt snaker has won this uh he’s won it twice actually a lot of guys who are really good with their wedges had won here and that’s a big prevailing theme so if you want to just throw for me personally I’m
Gonna not even to look at off the te stuff because it’s not predictive anybody can really come in here and do well um you know it’s gonna be a lot of how you’re doing your short irons if you’re a good putter on POA but that weather forecast though that’s going to
Be uh kind of tricky this week so uh thank you for getting up early to join me uh trip c82 good morning to you as well thank you for joining me uh thank you for joining me today uh this morning uh I have to start getting ready for
Work and get the kids up so uh we will be back on Tuesday tomorrow night for our betting show we’re going to have uh the model Maniac in South uh Bayern Lind who I was on his show a couple weeks ago we’re in return the favor he’s gonna
Bring uh come on for us as well uh Byron from Roto baller he’s gonna break down the Benny car with us and we’re also uh it’s not gonna be live streamed we are going to attempt to do a live show uh live betting show I don’t think any odds
Are actually on the main books but you can find them at your offshore or your locals odds are available we’re going to attempt to actually try and have a serious semi-serious discussion about how to bet this thing when unfortunately the teams aren’t even finalized so that’s a bit of the
Challenge I don’t know who’s gonna be on John ROM I don’t know if Terell Hat’s gonna be there or what but um we’re gonna try it we’re going to see how it goes you know I I feel we we said this back in December that based on it doesn’t seem like Liv is
Going to go away anytime soon we’re GNA have to start covering it especially if it’s still going to have a lot of these guys who are over there we’re GNA have to at least try and pay attention to it because they’re all going to come over for the
Majors and we can’t just ignore what they’re doing and you know I mean I can criticize a lot of those golf courses the live guys plays is too easy well then we go see him play MX or wlly over here in PG youer they don’t really have
A lot of stakes either it’s all the same guys so we’re going to try and do a live show um we’ll see how it goes but uh thank you again for uh joining me uh if you haven’t already please subscribe to the YouTube page for golf gaming podcast
I will give you a preview every single week doing exactly what I just did uh going over Google Earth with the golf course and then through day to golf also subscribe to our podcast on Apple or Spotify give us a rate and review as well we’d love to hear from you with
That uh have a good Monday and we will see you tomorrow night for the betting show
