The Fight Business Podcast | 2024 Predictions, ESPN+, UFC Antitrust Update

Patrick Auger is back with predictions for where the top MMA promotions are headed in the new year, including an analysis of upcoming changes at ESPN and how they might affect the UFC, plus the ongoing antitrust suit.

0:00 Intro
1:39 2024 MMA Promotion Predictions
25:27 Changes at ESPN
45:34 UFC Antitrust Suit Update

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All right it is the week of January 15 2024 and this is the fight business podcast I’m Ros Patrick OJ we’ve got a ton to cover in the first fbp of the New Year obviously if you’re watching on YouTube this isn’t my normal office Big Texas freeze messed up a lot of stuff

But we’re here I’m healthy enough to record we’re doing it I’ll give an update at the end of the show about my health and consistency moving forward but with that in mind we’ve got a ton to cover including my 2024 MMA promotion predictions I’m going to give one for

The UFC one for one championship and one for pfl then we’re going to break down the state of ESPN there’s been a lot of changes there there’s a new ESPN NFL deal I’m going to talk about how that might actually affect UFC media rights even possibly

WWE rights and TKO as a whole then we will discuss the current state of the antitrust lawsuit there have been some updates there including some attention uh from some investment analysts that are affecting TKO stock NOW Lots to unpack with that and some new documents that have released a ton of documents

That got released around Christmas that I’ve not sifted through completely but there’s been some good tidbits we need to talk about lastly we are going to talk about one Championship several articles came out over the holidays around one Championship with some great information and just talking about the

State of where things are with one I’m going to dive into that a little bit deeper it’s going to tie back to my predictions but we’ll cover all that um in depth for the last segment of the show with that in mind time stamps at the bottom as always and let’s go ahead

And Dive Right In all right first thing we’re going to talk about here is my 2024 MMA predictions my last year’s predictions I had trouble going back and finding them to be honest I know a couple one was about one Championship which when we talk about one

Championship I’ll get to uh but you know uh beyond that I’m keeping track better this year I’m writing it down making a whole thing uh I did not that I didn’t write it down before but all right so first up we’re going to talk about my 2024 MMA promotion predictions uh

Important to note here that I do not have particular insight into these things right John orand who does his yearly predictions for sport Business Journal or did I guess he’s leaving um but you know he has connections and that’s why so many people watch his predictions it’s because they’re generally pretty right

He’s not 100% right um but for the most part he has inside knowledge that helps him with this I have very very limited inside knowledge on some some of these but for the most part just take them as as my predictions from an outside perspective that’s what I would say um

If I had solid inside info I would let you know for some of of these but again I’m not super connected here so do not take these as like oh Patrick said this like no I’m I’m I generally let you know if I actually have an Insider track on

Things uh I have rumors and tidbits for these but again it’s outside outside I’m not in the thick of it so just want to preface that before we we get too far down the path of well Patrick knows this but nope nope just take these as outsider predictions

So with that in mind um first up with this would be the UFC prediction um there’s been a lot of speculation on media rights and where UFC media rights are going to go John orand is predicting that UFC rights are going to go to ESPN I think that’s probably pretty

Smart um just in terms of the comments you know that have been made by Disney and where they plan to go they’ they’ve pretty much said look we’re trying to trim the fat on some of our programming but ESPN is going to be somewhat of a flagship we want a strategic partner for

ESPN which they kind of have and we’ll talk about in the next segment but ESPN is clearly and ESPN plus clearly a top priority for them and where they see the future so resigning something like the UFC which was so critical in getting so many UFC uh I’m sorry ESPN plus signups

And is still critical in terms of viewership on that platform I think they’re going to make a strong bid are they going to get two times the media rights I don’t know again the way the market has softened here um it’s kind of iffy the NASCAR rights that were

Recently signed show that there’s still appetite there especially for well sought after products and UFC could fall under that umbrella with ESPN just because it is a Cornerstone of ESPN Plus at this point but you know it’s not a guarantee that they’ll get two times there and UFC and TKO especially are

Going to look for you know the most money they can get their stock has been hammered um they’ve got the antitrust lawsuit coming up that’s been weighing down on them as well Endeavor has been hammered it’s they’re looking for the best possible news and with that in mind

My prediction for the UFC is going to be that their media rights are going to be sold with WWE’s raw media rights which are also currently in negotiation to the same partner now I say this and it’s I can understand why some people might be

Like that’s a little bit of a long shot especially with different people stating different thing John Orin for example thinks raw’s going to Amazon and UFC is going to ESPN completely valid because they’re going to go after where they can get the most money but if you look at all of the parties

Interested in both the UFC and WWE Raw media rights there’s a lot of overlap and we talked about this with the merger right of of WWE and UFC into TKO a big part of that merger I still believe whether it happens this year or you know

On a different cycle I think a big goal of TKO is to get their media rights sold as a package deal so that they only have to deal with one partner they partner they can get a boost in terms of some you know relationship uh aspects I guess is what

I would say right if you’ve only got one media partner and they’ve got two of your Flagship shows it’s going to make that relationship stronger it’s going to be more reliable um have both sides be a little bit more invested I still think that’s part of their strategic

Goals and looking at Partners interested in WWE Raw right Amazon for one we know that Amazon is somewhat interested in UFC and has talked about it on a occasion right the part of the reason they signed the one Championship deal was because they wanted to get into the

MMA space and it’s it’s been hinted at by Ari Emanuel and others that when UFC rights are up Amazon will be a bidder and that makes sense I mean they want to get into the space you look at ESPN obviously wants to stay in the UFC but you know

Disney is a top candidate for landing WWE Raw it would not go on ESPN most likely go on FX or something of that nature but again company interested in both rights Warner Brothers Discovery has been a big name thrown around given the relation ship with aw on the wrestling side right

And then CM Punk there’s a whole backstory there that I won’t get into you can look it up if you want but essentially Warner Brothers Discovery is also in talks here um light shed uh has kind of said that they might end up with the raw rights kind of contrary to what

John Orin believes and David zof has talked about wanting the U UFC rights openly how he would love to bring UFC over to at the time it was you know Sky Sports Discovery now Warner Brothers Discovery that’s something he’s openly stated I think it’s too lucrative a deal

And a relationship especially as the market softens right you want a strong partner now you want somebody that’s going to deliver for you on both ends where a media partner wants content they know they can rely on and it’s going to give them the returns they want and

Content producer like the UFC or WWE want somebody that’s going to give them the payment that they need to keep growing and to help boost their stock if you know let’s say Warner Brothers Discovery was to offer you know two times for UFC rights and then 1.4

1.5 times what raw is getting now that’s a huge boost to TKO stock especially given some of the predictions right now and they’re looking to kind of do something spark the market back up in their favor right they’ve Fallen quite a bit from you know they were at hundred

Something I believe and now they’re down to 77 I mean they’ve lost 25% close to 25% of their value stockwise they are looking to turn that around despite WWE killing it and UFC also killing it in terms of gate and viewership and all that stuff it’s not

Translating in the stock and this is part of the danger with public companies right you can do everything right you can have all the fundamentals your business can look great and have a great Outlook it does not necessarily change investor sentiment especially given how detached we’ve become from fundamentals

So I think a dual deal right finding one partner to go in on raw and UFC and maybe Smackdown in the future although you know I think Smackdown and NXT for WWE those have already kind of locked up and I don’t see USA being the partner for UFC rights um I

Think raw and UFC together is a bundle that would make both sides happy so my prediction is regardless of the candidate ESPN being the leading one in my opinion I think ESPN probably gets it done Disney you know ESPN gets the UFC rights because it’s such a big deal

To Disney’s Cornerstone of ESPN plus and then I think they probably go pretty hard on Raw rights and try and get them on FX again TKO is probably going to go with the most money um within a certain threshold right if it’s close enough they might want to

Stay with Disney they they could take slightly less money if the synergies of the partnership are worth it and I think there could be there and and we’ll talk about in the next segment with ESPN because that’s a unique situation given the Strategic partnership aspect that

They’re trying to do but I think that’s my prediction for the UFC I think UFC and for all rights for TKO go to the same place and I’m predicting ESPN Disney being the winner of that could be wrong here again I do not have inside information on this one uh just what I’m

Looking at from an outside Observer I think that would make a lot of sense for both parties involved we’ll see see what happens there but that’s my first prediction and we’ll know about that one pretty quickly uh in this year just given where raw is at and

The UFC rights so we will we will have a definitive answer by the end of 2024 for sure um next prediction is one championship this is a tough situation where last year I did predict that either one Championship or pfl would be out of business reason I said that is

Again both of those promotions require a lot of Runway they’re not making money um all sorry they are making money but they’re not Prof profitable at all and they both had been struggling in certain aspects right pfl had some live gate issues and viewership issues there you know

Pay-per-view with Kayla Harrison did not go well right it was pretty much a bomb from what I’ve heard um so you know and and that’s Growing Pains that again it’s not a knock against pfl it’s it’s what they had to do before before anyone comes at me for saying you

Hope pfl or one Championship dies no I I’ve had people including people that work at both companies say like you’re trying to that’s not I I want that competition competition thriving is better for consumers better for the industry in my opinion that is not at all the case uh and pfl

Needed to do this in a lot of ways right they needed to test out the star power of Kayla Harrison they needed to test out the pay-per-view market and it was pretty low risk for the most part um I mean they had to do it and they still

Despite you know things not going their way in that Arena and some of the viewership issues their overall viewership was up they made a deal with Saudi Arabia obviously got the funding they needed to purchase Bellator which is huge for them helps consolidate them they are very much on the up and

Up and when you’re looking at startups which again is what pfl and one Championship are when you’re in that phase that type of growth is necessary um they’re still looking to get to profitability they’re still trying to figure out you know the exact model that’s going to help their growth but

Big signings by Francis and ganu Jake Paul right is even though he’s not really doing a lot just getting those names there it they’ve made a lot of big splashes and that helps with sponsorship which we’ve seen really grow in the pfl uh and it helps with some viewership

Stuff pfl viewership is up which is important right and we see the ESPN numbers but I do have limited info on that and from what I’ve heard um again rumor of a rumor type thing their ESPN Plus numbers are up in terms of people watching that aren’t reported on so and

They’re happy with them so with that in mind there’s you know they they’re growing one on the other hand uh has really struggled right they haven’t had many MMA fights they’ve basically been doing Muay Thai um there’s several articles out which we’ll get to on our last segment about where they are um

Financially and in their relationships my prediction for one is that I don’t know that they will go out of business this year right uh I don’t know that this is the death nail it’s possible Right given the precarious situation they’re in it’s certainly possible um but I think the relationship

With Qatar might sour I think that’s my prediction for 2024 that’s not a set in stone thing but they have to make some big changes and they’ve got to kind of turn the ship around in that regard given some of the reports that have come out that we’ll

Talk about as well as just making some of the moves they’ve they’ve really been striving for they they did really well with their North American debut right in Denver um nearly a soldout crowd good gate good you know interest which is perfect and they talked about coming back and you know now they’re

Going to do I think four shows one in Atlanta one in Denver I forget the other two spots but you know they’re they’re trying to get there and they are doing a guitar show in March which as we’ll talk about later is part of somewhat expected deal although

There’s conflicting sources on that with what uh you know Qatar wants out of one championship and they still have the Amazon deal where they still got the one fight nights going on but from the outside looking in they’re they’re certainly not in a great place right losses have ballooned a lot

Um in a year where they you know on their financials where they’re posting higher Revenue numbers part of that is asset of sales and barter transactions um it’s it’s not the type of growth you want to see if you’re an investor or if you’re a fan right the the fact that MMA is

Essentially been absent for so long um and you’ve got a lot of of these big fights where people were fighting for two or three belts that you know whether they they transition to be more Muay Tha exclusive or they you know get more into grappling or what have you it certainly

Looks Rocky and and we’ll talk about that later on but I don’t necessarily know that they’re going to die this year I don’t think that’s the case but I think they may need a new investor in backing um depending on how the guitar show goes and some of the other things

They they can salvage this relationship but it’s not looking great and so that’s my prediction for one is that they’ll basically be looking for investment outside of Qatar and and where they are there um lastly pfl prediction so this one is pretty straightforward I think this is my most likely to be

Accurate prediction um again no Insider info but this is not too hard to figure out um you know last year I said enanu is going to go to boxing and a lot of people didn’t pay attention or they said yeah yeah whatever uh this was you know during all

The he fumbled the bag comments all this stuff but I knew in was goingon to go to boxing the minute he was out of that UFC contract that had to be a prerequisite because even if he had fought Tyson Fury and lost terribly right right um he’s

Still making more money than he would in MMA easily a lot of people say like oh these MMA guys going over the box and they’re not doing well it’s not that lucrative it’s super lucrative for them compared to MMA or at least as lucrative right um there’s a reason so many of these

Guys are doing that that there there is a pretty clear reason that you’ve got mazal uh Diaz Ben Asen Tyra Woodley all these guys going over into boxing and G going like they’re making far more guaranteed money uh and yeah maybe they’re not doing super well but you know they’re they’re having one

Or two fights and making their entire UFC salary or career salary like that’s crazy um that being said inano versus Fury right I don’t think anybody expected inano to do as well as he did he arguably won that fight it was a split decision um and if it had gone I I had

It for Fury by one round but if it had gone the other way I wouldn’t have been shocked right I mean he got a knockdown on Fury and fury like hit him a couple times but I mean andana was never in trouble he just got slightly outboxed and I mean slightly if

Enanu wins one or two more rounds I mean he knocks off Tyson Fury that’s Game Changer but the fact he did so well even he’s never gonna go back to MMA at least while the boxing well is as full as it is right that runs dry of

Course he’ll come back but you know he’s fighting Anthony Joshua now and if he gets past Joshua he’ll definitely end up fighting Fury I mean that’s even the Joshua fight he’s going to make so much money right and enanu is is just an insane athlete you cannot deny his

Skill his natural ability in fighting and his power and you know we’ve seen Joshua struggle with Andy Ruiz like I mean it’s very possible that enanu puts Joshua away it’s also possible that you know Joshua as good as he did in his last fight ends up just outboxing Inu sure

But regardless of the outcome Inu has multiple fights ready Fury’s already talked about rematching him I think unless Joshua dog walks and ganu I think you still probably end up with that fight at some point even if it’s an exhibition it it’s it’s just too lucrative whereas you go to MMA yes they

Can pay him a ton and and he can fight the winner of the pfl heavyweight championship or he can fight the winner of the Bellator pfl Championship Clash right so Bader or someone but he’ll he’ll never get the pay-per-view return that he would get compared to a guaranteed person boxing

And it’s very unlikely you know as as John Nash pointed out when I spoke with him about this a little bit is it’s very unlikely they’d get a return an Roi on them I I don’t think you’re ever going to get an Roi on in ganu npfl unless you get a huge huge

Fighter I mean we’re talking Jones we’re talking like a a real big name leaving UFC coming over to pfl and I just don’t see that happening with the way contracts are set up and all this other stuff I I don’t think you’re going to end up

Getting a real money Roi you’re going to get a lot of marketing you’re going to get viewership that hopefully converts right that’s that’s what pfl is hoping with the Inu signing and it’s possible you know Nash pointed out which I can see I’ve warmed up to the idea right that they

Just wanted to sign in ganu he’s never gonna actually fight but they wanted to sign him because he’s a big name he makes a splash gets eyes on the product he may show up do a face off or two right there’s all that but I in ganu at least for this year is

Not coming back to MMA I can’t see it he gets Dogg walked by Joshua maybe at the end of the year but if he makes the Joshua fight competitive or he beats Joshua no way no way because even though he probably destroys anyone in the pfl cage you

Still don’t want to risk injury still in training camp right or or something like that you want to keep yourself open for boxing fights because you’re going to make way more money and it’s something ganu clearly wants to do and why wouldn’t he after how well he did against

Fury I can’t I can’t see it so that one I think is probably my safest prediction um I don’t see him at least this year fighting the pfl cage would take a couple of things lining up the right way for him to have to go back to

MMA and and you know if possibly if he beats Joshua or you know something happens to they’re trying to do the fury fight again and fury can’t fight until like late next year okay sure but I don’t see it I I just don’t um those are my three predictions so again

I think UFC and raw media rights go to the same partner I’m guessing ESPN and Disney um so FX or whatever Disney wants to put it on one Championship needing a new investor outside of Qatar um by the end of the year again hope I’m wrong on

That one but that’s just what I’m seeing and then Inu doesn’t fight in pfl this year at all um I think he sticks to boxing so let me know what you think about those predictions if you agree disagree let me know in the comments I’d love to chat about it hear your guys’

Perspectives because yeah I just don’t I don’t at least for the one I think that’s safe the others we’ll see we’ll see we see where things are see where they end up all right next up I want to talk about some recent dealings ESPN has had and where they’re looking

To go and how that might affect the aforementioned UFC rights and to an extent raw meteorites although that’s less of my beat but could affect them both so the story that I’m looking at here is from the New York Post Andrew marchon uh who states that the ESPN and NFL well as

An advanced talks on agreement that could give League stake in TV giant so from the article ESPN and the NFL are in advanced talks that could result in the league taking an equity stake in ESPN the post has learned uh as part of the potential agreement Disney

Owned ESPN would take control of NFL media which includes NFL Network and the league would receive equity in ESPN this helps ESPN um align with its goal as the article mentions to move to direct to Consumer by 2025 so they’re looking to essentially get rid of their cable bundles and offer everything

Through ESPN Plus or direct you know streaming option right so you could get NFL Network NFL red zones NFL media includes um what does it include here it includes NFL Network nfl.com Red Zone which is a big one NFL films NFL plus so that is a a big deal for a lot of

Reasons especially with ESP been trying to go direct to Consumer by 2025 they could move that up but that’s their goal um from the article the NFL has been trying to unload its Network for years now and its recent talks that resulted in its 110 plus billion dollar deals with ESPN

Uh Amazon CBS FOX NBC and YouTube the NFL searched for a buyer but was unsuccessful at this point though it these talks are serious enough according to the article that the Players Association has been notified which they’ll need to be involved because my guess is according to the collective

Bargaining agreement between the two they’ll have to accept this deal right and essentially it would allow for an alliance um where ESPN already covers NFL heavily but it would intertwine the two quite a bit more now this ties back to Bob iger’s statements last year where he is trying

To find a strategic partner for ESPN he wants to keep ESPN he thinks it’s a Cornerstone of Disney programming going forward but he wants a partner to take some Equity to have a little bit more skin in the game to help bolster the network right ESPN has had a lot of

Trouble for quite some time now in terms of you know profitability uh not not let me rephrase that not profitability because as we know from recent news that came out I mean ESPN is making tons of money but ESPN plus has really driven up costs and that switch from cable

To you know direct to Consumer is not going probably the way that Disney expected that was part of the reason Bob chapek was you know removed in that Sunday night succession style fashion um they are looking to make that transition as smooth as possible and given how much money ESPN

Makes they do not want to lose a lot of that Revenue right uh they want to keep as much and grow as much of that as possible and all streaming services right now ESPN plus included are not profitable that I know of um yeah maybe Netflix I have to double

Check on Netflix but most streaming services the majority of streaming services are not profitable ESPN plus is included in that so why am I bringing this up on an MMA podcast well here here is a piece of the article that caught my eye and something that

Could in fact affect TKO and the UFC moving forward um there have been talks with MLB NFL and NBA and this is something that CBN or CNBC reported on back in June it looks like the NFL has moved to the point where again they’re notifying people they’re in advanced talks that could get

The deal done but if you look at what the NFL is getting out of this right they’re unloading you know their NFL media which they wanted to get rid of they’re partnering with a broadcast partner who has already been a pretty huge broadcast partner for them ESPN obviously is the home of highlights

Sports Center all the talk shows talking head shows that do well right this intertwines them more and and it leads to an entirely different relationship if NFL gets equity in ESPN there’s going to be some talk about like can you you know cover this objectively I don’t think ESPN cares much about that

Um as we’ve seen with their partnership with the UFC uh you know objectivity is not their strongest suit even from their own writers we’ve heard that um yeah so I mean is what it is but in terms of the change in relationship right let let me just paint this picture as clear

As I can when you have a media rights deal say the UFC and ESPN right you ink that deal in this the first case it was what seven years five or five years seven years and the minute that deal is signed the relationship becomes about maintenance very bare minimum

Maintenance making sure everybody’s you know happy and nobody’s going to you know get angry enough to pull out of the deal and it becomes about signing the next deal the minute that 7ye deal is signed as the UFC you’re thinking okay how do I get the numbers I need how do I

Get the you know relationship to a point where we can get even more money on the next deal and it’s a very superficial relationship UFC doesn’t care that much about ratings doesn’t care about pay-per-view buys to a point they want to get as many as they can so they get

That little bonus but they they don’t care as much right they have that steady Revenue they have that locked in so that they can take care of their costs and think about other products and growths into new markets to get other media rights deals and sponsors but I mean the minute that

Deal is signed media rights deal is signed they’re thinking about the next medor rights too occasionally and in in the case of the first ESPN UFC deal right you look at exclusive you know pay-per-view partnership right and you know kind of add-ons upsells in a way to increase the

Relationship but for the most part it’s just okay we’re on to the next one it’s same with the NFL right we’ve talked about a little bit on the show but if you follow NFL media rights or you know MLB I mean that that was doon’s whole

Thing right they were trying to get into the US market hired the former head of ESPN to help with media rights deal when MLB came up and NFL and whatever and you know they didn’t get the rights they wanted and the billionaire backing toone kind of was like all right I’m done with

This but that was part of why they signed Bellator and all this other stuff they’re they were trying to get a foothold in the US market and get enough of a base that when they went after the big rights they could compete but I mean those rights were years away and that’s

All they’re thinking about and that’s how a lot of media rights work you get that deal signed awesome we’re good for this on to the next one could be five seven 10 years whatever all right what do I have to do to get that next deal to

Be even more money and then basic maintenance you might have a couple check-ins here and there with the partner over the course of the year or quarterly or however you’re you’re still talking to them but it’s really just all about the next deal and from the media

Side it’s just how do we get ratings up you know if we have an issue where like we’re not getting the ratings or we’re you know the product has an issue we’re going to call and say hey maybe we change some things here do y y

Y right or you know Co is an example where you know Bob basically was like Hey we’re not putting on fights in the Tachi Palace right now in California Governor’s called me like you need to stop data you need to put a pause on this and then they figured out fight

Island and all that but I mean you got stuff like that but for the most part it’s just ink the deal and move on with an equity stake though that changes the relationship entirely now as a partner you are trying to boost those ratings because if their ratings do well

They get more sponsorship they get more Revenue you get a slice of that right it’s the entire difference if you’ve ever worked for a company where you get a high-paying salary and it’s great you’re just doing your job versus you get a high paying salary and then you

Have stock in the company anybody that has stock in the company generally tends to work harder tends to have more invested why because if the company does well you get a return on that you’re able to sell your stock for a profit that’s what a lot of people in executive

Physicians work hard for that’s why they’re a lot of times busting their butt depends on the company yes I know but a huge part of the startup mentality right where people are working crazy hours and they’re wearing all sorts of different hats and doing all this stuff

Is you come work for us and we’ll give you some equity and then if we succeed and we make all these deals and we grow into a big company you are like set you can retire you’re done right you are set that that’s that’s the the carrot that’s the brass ring and

So that occurs here too it’s I mean obviously with companies it’s a little bit different but suddenly right if UFC ends up getting getting an equity stake TKO gets an equity stake in ESPN they are going to want to make sure their ratings are up they’re going

To want to put on the best possible cards for ESPN plus ESPN pay-per-view wise they’re gonna they’re going to want to go more all out they’re going to want to figure out ways to bump up that viewership they’re going to care so much more now it depends on how much Equity yes but

Still you’ve got to assume that some of the equity numbers here for the NFL and ESPN are making it worth their while because otherwise why would you deal with that headache you also take on more risk right if ESPN tanks numbers start to tank NFL viewership starts to tank

NFL is going to get hurt by that ESPN would always get hurt by that but now NFL will be a little bit more hurt by that too right and because they already had Media stuff going on the partnership makes a fair amount of sense but you know it it one-ups that

Relationship quite a bit you’re having far more interaction you’re probably brainstorming on ways uh and crossover to help relate the two it’s a whole thing right it’s a different ball game compared to I’m just gonna sign the meteorite steel and I’m gonna move on you care more because it affects you far

More than it did before so all of this is to Circle back and I hinted at it there a little bit to the fact that ESPN is having these talks with MLB with NBA NFL all the major sports right that all have MLB Network NBA all that

Stuff could you end up having that with TKO and I say TKO because I don’t know that just UFC would be really worth it since most everything’s on UFC there’s still Fight Pass stuff right you could bring over but so much content is exclusively ESP p and plus for the UFC

Um but if they brought over raw right WWE media rights and then you br brought over a lot of stuff that’s on peacock and the library there that adds a whole bunch of content to ESPN plus that you know gets a younger skewing audience or

To watch your shows and then you know at the end of Raw you get a FIV minute run over and then all of a sudden there’s a sport you know sport Center’s on or there’s some you you know some sporting event that’s on where they younger people maybe they get into it

Right and I’m sure they’d have metrics looking at audience potential and all that um and it makes more sense that the talks are reported with MBA MLB because you’re more likely you know if you’re into sports in general you’re more likely to continue on that path but you could hypothetically look at TKA

Or t TK TKO getting an equity stake now that is a very very big hypothetical depends on a lot of things first of all is ESPN looking for more than one partner I don’t know that they’re looking right now um but the fact they’ve had talks with multiple

Sports despite NFL kind of being the winning sport if it works well right if NFL gets an equity stake their synergies and partnership ends up resulting in bigger viewership for ESPN better sponsors NFL is getting more money out of it wouldn’t be surprised if all of a sudden MO

NBA these other you know sports are kind of looking at resparking those talks ESPN for one though has to decide how much Equity it’s going to give NFL which we don’t know based on these initial reports what the equity stake is looking like that’s a huge piece of it

And we don’t know if they want multiple partners right if I’m ESPN if I’m Bob Iger I could easily see trying to get the big four MB NBA NFL NHL maybe but at least at least MLB NBA NFL um at the table for small Equity Stakes because that’s really the heart

Of ESPN coverage right um and getting them more involved and making sure that they’re delivering their best content so that they receive the equity Kickback makes a ton of sense but you know that’s also dealing with three separate Sports and you know more Cooks in the kitchen even if they all have

Lower Equity stake and you’re still controlling it all which Disney you know is GNA still have all the control at this point you’ll just have a couple of people at the table um more Cooks in the kitchen always complicates things so you know does ESPN even want

That and then outside of that right these are big really big leagues with lots of money and viewership that dwarf you know most other sports um so then you look to UFC and WWE right do you even want to bring them to the table that’s a different ball game um WWE Sports entertainment

Is a scripted show right it it’s got a little bit you know of a different feel obviously a different audience that then a lot of sports do you want to bring them to the table UFC you already have a great partnership with and again you’re more than likely going after UFC

Aggressively to get their media rights but do you want to end up giving some Equity there and again it would be to TKO not to just one or the other it would definitely be a dual deal which goes back to my prediction you know if

ESPN gets UFC and FX gets raw I think this makes that scenario a little bit more likely but yeah I mean it would change the relationship where UFC would definitely want to be putting on better cards and and be looking at viewership more closely and how it affects ESPN um

I’m sure they would get a bunch more promotion on espan because they don’t get a ton right now they they do get some of course but not you know they have coverage of it but it’s not like an every day thing by any means um right which you have Stephen A Smith talking

More about UFC I mean and I know that’s making some people roll their eyes and and I get it uh but you know would you have some of the talking head shows getting more involved in covering UFC to try and you know get more viewership that way would you have more Clips on

Sports Center interviews with Scott velt more shows like 30 for 30 you know doing UFC backstage stuff there’s lots of options there um same with WWE right again different Beast because it’s scripted but you could still talk about it they’ve they’ve done that right with the Fox shows uh that

They had the FS1 shows and stuff like that you could still have that analyst talking head type thing definitely doable I mean they’re doing it right now on peacock this could this could happen especially if iger’s looking for multiple partners if Iger and Disney are looking for multiple partners at a lower Equity

Stake that could be an ideal world for ESPN is get all of your major sports and you know WWE if that comes over at the table and get them even more invested in making sure your Flagship Network which you’re staking so much of your programming content on right you’re

Talking about chopping all this other stuff I getting them and all of your partners invested even more is not a bad call I don’t know that that’s where it will go I think right now it’s a long shot but it’s something I want to bring up because depending on how some of these

Dominoes fall I could see it happen I think the fact that Disney is buying out Comcast to by Hulu is step one right because then you’re looking at content for Hulu for FX for some of these things right FX usually goes to Hulu the next day and you seen some crossover there already

With some Disney plus things being on Hulu and vice versa like I think that is the small step one that could of course could be totally unrelated but could be you know step one in getting this done still a long shot uh I I don’t see it happening anytime soon especially with

Tko’s monetary you know position with their debt and things that they’re working on trying to get their stock back up it’s I I don’t foresee them saying hey we’re going to put an equity stake in here right now but you never know and and that becomes a whole complex process because you need

Endeavor and you know to sign off on it all that fun stuff uh but at the same time it’s a possibility and I want to throw that out there because even if that doesn’t come to fruition it’s important to keep on top of what the UFC’s current main media

Partner is doing if UFC goes somewhere else and ra go somewhere else after this we won’t be talking about ESPN as much but while they’re still partnering up I think this is an important thing to keep an eye on myself all right next thing we got to

Talk about here is the UFC antitrust lawsuit UPS update so there have been a lot of changes or updates I guess rather um all right next thing we’re going to talk about here is the UFC antitrust lawsuit updates uh been a fair amount of updates tons of new documents that I

Have not gotten to because I’ve been sick um but I promise I will go through them it may just be later than a lot of other people so I don’t blame you if you’re looking at other sources um for example you know MMA fighting put out the uh information about you know data

And Lorenzo talking trash to johon Jones and and you know little nog and all that stuff which is interesting but you know it shows some business tactics shows where their heads at and again reiterates the fact that I will try and drill into each and every one of you as

Listeners that they care about numbers they do not care about much else that’s how they’ve gotten to where they are they’re very analytical they’re all about numbers and growth it’s what they do so there’s that but um something I want to focus on specifically that came out uh not too long

Ago is an update regarding uh TKO getting a hold rating so pretty much every analyst since TKO has been out there despite what the stock has done has has had a buy rating which means you know based on where we believe the Target price of the stock should be and

All this other stuff you should be buying this if you have money and you’re you know it’s a it’s a stock we recommend that you buy but TD Cohen uh which is an analyst and this comes from Bloomberg uh has now downgraded that to a hold so from the article TD Cohen unim

With the sports entertainment company’s performance and concerned about its legal troubles kicked off coverage on the owner of World Wrestling Entertainment and Ultimate Fighter Championship with a market perform recommendation the first non bu equivalent so I mean there’s it’s an equivalent of a hold rating they have different depending on

The depending on the you know investment analysis or analyst uh you got sell buy hold you got perform outperform underperform so this is the equivalent of a hold um analyst Stephen glagola and George K expressed caution on tko’s ability to continue generating profits and return for shareholders ommit ongoing litigation with a pending

Lawsuit alleging antitrust violations quote we think the market is under appreciating the risks and they assigned a $92 price Target to the stock so right now the stock is like 77 so it’s still you know they’re still recommending like you can buy it if you want and it should

At least go up but you know you may just want to hold it and see where all the stuff goes um they say that any significant monetary damage from the suit would act as an impediment to TKO announcing share rep purchases or dividends during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call

Um quote TKO has indicated that it does not expect the upcoming case to be significant impediment to repurchasing shares or implementing a dividend and that’s you know a huge part of this investment analysis stuff right uh with a stock like TKO you’re looking at you know getting dividends getting stock BuyBacks that

Usually helps boost up a company um it it usually bumps up the share price leads to bigger things right with uh Vince McMahon selling as many shares as he did in TKO it kind of dropped the stock a little bit um and you know it’s just the more that’s out there more it

Tends to go down versus if it’s Consolidated becomes less available price goes up right uh and dividends big because you’ve got a lot of portfolios where they get Blue Chip type stocks and then they get big dividends they just buy more and more of the shares because

Your dividends can end up being hundreds thousands of dollars in some cases so that being a risk I I can understand that from their perspective for sure um William Isaacson the league Council for UFC uh stated quote as we previously said we believe the pl of’s claim have

No merit we look forward to making arguments in court but that’s not great considering the class certification Um the analysts gool and cool said uh you know part of their issue is quote already over indexed to us media rights uh they see the audience for WWE’s scripted entertainment as a niche market distinct from sports with limited potential ability to drive incremental affiliate fee growth so they’re

Basically saying like it’s a niche market it limits the ability that you’re going to get two three five times right there’s only so much cealing uh on this thing so you know when you’re looking at the performance of TKO it makes a lot of sense uh where somebody would end up

Switching into a hold especially given the antitrust lawsuit because you’re at a place where injunctive relief is gone that’s another update I don’t know if we’ve talked about where injunctive relief isn’t going to happen so you’re not going to have current contracts from 2017 onward which I don’t know how many

Are left um from 2017 but you’re not going to have current contracts affected so this opening up allowing fighters to jump ship immediately almost certainly not going to happen um that will fall under the uh Lee Johnson or sorry the Johnson case so you got you know Lee up until

2017 and then now you have um C and Johnson suit beyond that and that one is looking far less uh favorable for the plan ofs whereas Lee still got some some legs under it obviously you got antitrust certification you got a lot of motions denied judge bware certainly seems

To favor the plaves in this one so far and you have the appeals court denying it which again I did not see coming um so those are all big things and and with a trial date set for April eth that’s important too I’ve said this multiple times people are kind of dismissing it

When I say it but I’m telling you you’ve got WrestleMania the weekend before and UFC 300 the weekend after and you’ve got April 8th right in the middle of those two major events for WWE t or and UFC tko’s brand right they are pulling out all the stops I believe in

Part to draw media attention away from the lawsuit yes people are still going to cover it of course but the more Niche sites they can get covering it but you know it doesn’t again bleed over into stuff like this Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal or places that could

Affect much more heavily affect uh the stock price the better and I’ve had people tell me oh well they’re going to cover it anyway it’s yes but if you look at the last time the stock took a big hit part of it was Vince McMahon allegations coming out again um believe

It was in Rolling Stone or somewhere like that where again those those had already been out there for a while it was just a matter of you know getting reprinted in a larger audience and then the pfl Saudi deal which dropped stock where that I don’t think that was fully

Understood right like again um if you look at if you if you’re in the no and you’re looking at it from a hardcore fan or media perspective that shouldn’t have dropped the stock that much pfl Saudi deal right like you know if you know that like okay

They’ve got money and they’re going to do something with it obviously they purchased Bellator which is huge but in terms of you know strategic advantages with the marketplace right it doesn’t it’s not a real threat yet right the threat becomes if you start losing your key Fighters and viewership neither of those have

Happened for the UFC so the fact that that caused the stock to drop those two things as much much as it did again says to me that you know you you’ve got outside sources with a wider audience think of it just like a casual audience right um that don’t fully understand

What’s going on and so that’s that’s part of what TKO is trying to do with this right they want to mask and get you know Bloomberg and all these other fa is not covering it at least as in depth and because instead they’re going to be focused on WrestleMania they’re going to

Be focused on you know UFC 300 and it’s not going to be a big like oh trial opens with blah blah blah right instead they want like the rock returned at WrestleMania which it looks to be happening um UFC 300 there’s rumored super fights I’ve heard a couple of

Names I’m not gonna say them because again I don’t the only rumor that is out there that I know is kind of out there that people have heard is kabib coming back to fight Leon Edwards I have NOA idea if that’s going to happen um but

I it wouldn’t Shock Me If part of the reason they moved McGregor Chandler to International fight week is because they’re trying to throw money to make a bigger super fight and I still believe that a big reason they’re trying to do all that is to take attention away from

The lawsuit kicking off there’s still going to be articles about it and stuff especially down the road but they don’t want focus on it kicking off when they’re still you know there’s still a lot of time for the UFC to make their case to actually get wins

In court they don’t want it to be a big like oh Court kick case kicks off an anti trust lawsuit you know plastered over the front page of some of these places or if that does happen they want to be able to point to investors and be

Like yeah that happened but look at like the crazy money we did at WrestleMania look at the crazy money we did at UFC 300 we’re fine right because the only threat right now is like that if if things go extremely South for the UFC you’re talking about billions of dollars

In Damages which could be obviously very bad right but that being said if they can show like we’re business is super strong so we can weather that and you know all this stuff that’s an absolute worst case scenario for them um they want to make sure they can point to that that’s why

They’re going all out this year I I truly believe that’s why they’re doing it this year that’s why you had Nick KH con photographed with the rock that’s why you had U you know Dana saying the things he saying I I think that’s all connected so with that in

Mind when we’re talking about this and some of the new docs that come out it it’s the injunctive relief being off the table is probably the biggest piece of all this and that’s because you cannot now have multiple Fighters ERS who are champions be let out of contracts to

Sign wherever that right there was always the biggest threat in my opinion to this lawsuit case yes billions of dollars in Damages would hurt of course and it would cause the stock to drop it would cause some big cost cutting measures on the UFC and WWE side I

Imagine you would see it radiate through to Fighters and WWE Talent especially with the debt they have there’d be issues but their business model as you know the lawyer for the UFC in the antitrust case suit mentions uh their business model moving forward is still

Good right yes if we have to pay all this and it’s terrible and we take a big hit that’s fine but we’re still making money hand over fist so we can handle it is basically what they’re saying and it’s true they would have to make big changes

Don’t get me wrong um it would hurt but if your model moving forward Ward is as profitable as the UFC’s is and WWE is you can recover from that may take a while sure but like it’s not you don’t have to worry about oh man how are we going to recover from

This and you know H how are we going to figure this all out because no your your future business model is solid with injective relief off the table you’re talking about writing a very painful check and then moving on and being fine people I’m sure would get fired

Again there’ be there’d be changes but it’s not a threat to killing the UFC or WWE especially with them combined I think again that’s part of the reason I believe this merger made some sense from an Endeavor perspective right this hedged this hedged them in case things

Went super South with the trial this is risk mitigation in my opinion so with that off the table yes you want to do as much as you can to prep for the bad times but then the other thing you have to do right is make sure you keep your stock price

Intact from investor sell-offs right you don’t want investors running for the door because then that does start to add to your woes quite a bit and best way to do that is to Shield as much as you can control what you can control right and shield as much as you

Can coverage of the antitrust lawsuit with these two major events and just touting numbers saying that your business model is intact the fundamentals are there keeping investors engaged and my guess is if this suit you know gets thrown out goes the UFC’s way um or or you get that major

TKO UFC deal together right um if that all happens this I’m assuming the stock price will just shoot To The Moon a little bit because if you get the antitrust lawsuit out of the way it doesn’t matter what your rights increases are you’re making money hand over fist and

It’s you’re definitely on the right path um if you are able to accomplish both those things I mean yeah I think your the stock prices will be soaring but there’s no guarantees with either of those and that’s Again part of the risk that’s being assessed here and I don’t

Mind a hold position uh by TD Cohen personally and again I’m not an investor do not take me for investment advice and all that but from my perspective it kind of makes sense to say okay if you’ve got TKO stock right now hold on to it and see where some of these things

Go see where these dominoes fall because that’s going to be they’re they’re pretty huge Domino knows that’s going to really affect the future of the company so um you know see where they’re at but from a TKO side yeah you’re it’s mitigation risk mitigation all day that’s what you’re

Doing now that’s the moves you’re making you can’t control how the lawsuit goes other than you know paying the best lawyers you can to fight it uh you can’t control how the media rights goes other than negotiating what you can throwing two massive events around the kickoff of the trial can control

That to just create massive hype about how well the company is doing to calm investor fear and sentiment so that’s where we are with the antitrust lawsuit update again so many docs that I have to go through uh and I will hopefully get through even

When I’m sick my plan now is to start reading some of those docs and prepping some stuff uh but yeah next show or show after I will start to really dive into ones I find interesting there a lot of them are Email exchange changes and things that aren’t you know show

Negotiation tactics but we kind of already know right we we’ve seen enough of those wouldn’t be surprised if there’s emails on most fighters of them just ragging on Fighters telling them to take all their money all that stuff right that’s this is what the company does this is how they always have

Been anytime you see Dana White or hunter or whoever Joe Sila wherever praise a fighter that’s generally because they’re doing what they want but and and you have those Fighters right that they do like and help take care of that are Company Men but they are always going to be

Analytical that’s just their thing they’re always going to be about how do we make more money how do we do all this they they’ve shown that a million times over um and that’s probably what a lot of these docs are and I’ll skip over that but if I find interesting business

Ones I’ll definitely be covering it um and again trial kicking off April 8th I don’t think I will be on the boots to the ground on trial but I may be and if I am I will let you know um that would be interesting but probably not just

Given what’s going on during that time of the year but but we’ll see those the antitrust updates let me know if you have any questions on that if you agree uh with the sentiment here that you should probably hold the stock if you have it um all that stuff if you’re in

If you own shares of TKO let me know just from your perspective what you’re going to do um curious to hear from from shareholders but yeah it’s it’s an interesting time and some pretty big updates in lawsuit inju of relief being gone being the biggest one all right

Last thing we are going to talk about today is the state of one Championship which ties back to the predictions talked about before uh shout out to Christy Neo over at deal Street Asia who’s done fantastic work covering this stuff um and I’m GNA be referencing both articles she released during the

Holidays for this piece because they’re they’re full of great Insight so if you’re not following Christie uh you need to follow her for sure because she’s been been on top of one championship for a while now so with that in mind um couple things came out

Right you had a report that Chrissy did um talking about three major resignations from the sea Suite of one Championship uh the CMO the head of analytics and insights and the head of corporate strategy all left now a lot of people took the title of the article or

The tweets and said oh uh it’s trouble like three people leaving all at the same time they’re not all leaving like on the same day right it wasn’t an Abrupt like hey three of us are quitting right now um it was you know it looks like you know one of the longest

Standing members uh Hari thear Johan yeah I’m sorry I’m terrible that the CMO has been around for a while is kind of finishing up uh and then um leaving uh you have Singh who is uh the firm’s head of corporate strategy and who was was on The Apprentice if you watched the one

Championship Apprentice she was on that uh looks like she left in October type stuff uh but it’s one of those things we don’t know if they’re going to replace the roles and anytime you have that many seite members leave at the same time it’s not a great sign even if it is kind

Of staggered like that but it didn’t all just happen as an Abrupt like everybody got and like had a big fight blow up and they left that would be far worse but the fact that three of them are leaving and moving on to other things is still

Not good and whether or not they were you know let go or what don’t know any info on that but that’s the first piece uh so that’s not great uh there’s also another report right that one Championship now has this deal with Sky Sports where Sky Sports is going to be

Covering one championship and there’s a report that one Championship paid uh to have Sky Sports to be on skyports right it’s not the other way around where skyports is paying for one’s rights it’s it’s they are paying to be on Sky Sports uh I had seen one report right when they reached

Out to one that uh they declined to comment other than like hey what’s in the media release is is what’s true so they didn’t deny it necessarily I don’t know if that report is 100% on the up and up so don’t take this as gospel in

Terms of if they paid but the fact that that rumor is out there is is not a good look and that fact they’re not denying it vehemently is also something to keep in mind um and then lastly uh on a more in-depth article that Christy Neo did uh

Titled one Championship may have to fight harder for its next check from Qatar uh goes into kind of the state of where one is right um you know a huge part of one and their success has been chry sit you dog um his ability to sell

Is you know one of the best I’ve ever seen in terms of just his ability to sell to investors and that that is a rare skill right um if you can sell your product can be absolute trash if you can sell well enough you can get money for it we’ve

Seen this happen over and over in private Equity um it’s one of the most infuriating things about private equity and you know some of these institutional Investments is you’ve got people who you know if I’m an INT Institutional Investor for say like I don’t know know uh Microsoft or TASC or whoever right

I’m basically giving a bunch of money and told like go invest these in things that you think are going to make us good returns it’s not necessarily A partnership thing sometimes it is but it’s like a hey try and find something that you know will make us tons of money

By you just taking this money and investing it and uh and I guess Microsoft isn’t really the real one he you know what I’m saying uh like in in terms of these institutional investors that’s that’s really their job is to just go out and find this stuff

And they they listen to pitches all day right it’s not like they sit there and they have one conversation with one company over and over they they listen to pitches non-stop they’ve got to choose from this wide array of options and being able to convince someone in a

Short snippet of being like yes this is the one for you to put a ton of money in is a skill right the fact that they got qar to invest in this is huge uh the fact that they’ve gotten as much money as they’ve gotten out of TC is is

Massive right and there are some connections there with some of their board members of course all that stuff but being able to sell like that is is a true skill and you can get a ridiculous amount of money especially when things are going well market-wise right in General market

Conditions you can make so much money it’s not even funny um but conditions have obviously changed as as we’ve seen Pur strings you know starting to tighten from the private Equity cycle and and um just where things are and if you look at one right um a lot of

Their profit that they’ve posted like according to this article uh you know even though the Singapore based MMA firm posted a 341 million annual profit in 2020 it was on account of the sale of assets worth 400 million to its us subsidiary that year so that means that

They actually lost 60 or 59 million right like if you had 400 million in sales and you got 341 million in profit well you know you’ve lost 59 million there um the next year the loss is ballooned to 111 million despite one recognizing non-cash components like barter’s Revenue uh source is told deal

Street Asia that one’s Bankers which includes Goldman Sachs advis one that its competitors keep 20% of their revenues as non-cash justifying the firm’s stance on non-cash Revenue recognition but that’s been contested by Executives in the MMA industry not a lot of other companies in the MMA industry

Um do that I mean industry sources said it depend on the length of time the MMA firm has been existence of course right UFC doesn’t need to do that as much uh some of the others yeah I could see that um but nevertheless you know it’s not great to see those ballooning losses

And you’ve got one saying in you know Chri saying in 2022 that expects to post a profit in three years he said that it’s supposed to be I I could it’s not hard to go back and find clips of chry saying they expect to turn a profit in a certain time frame and

Missing that Mark and that’s fine that’s that’s startups that’s what they do right you you’ve got to kind of hit a Target goal but you can’t take that as like oh we’re good um now in this article there is you know while the state of W’s financials in

2022 and 2023 remain unclear two sources from one’s Financial team told deal Street Asia under the condition of Anam Anon anity sorry that the company aims to break even in 2024 for its Core Business and reach go group level Break Even shortly after can you trust those sources I mean

Probably if they’re working you know in in in the you know Financial team but it’s you know again we’ve heard we’ve heard this before um now where things get interesting is if you continue with this article right uh you’ve got a whole highlight on the fundraising between the Qatar

Investment Authority and one so uh from the article sometime between October and November this year one made a fresh fundraising pitch to existing investor Qatar investment Authority qia uh deal straight Asia reported in what appears to be a bid to keep its MMA dream alive

It’s not known how far the qia was aware of one’s Financial track record when it first wrote a $50 million check in 2021 however uh deal Street Asia however understands from sources that The qari Sovereign weal fund has since been disappointed and even embarrassed with the MMA firm’s performance to date

Qatar’s tie up with one made sense back then uh rich Arab state was making efforts towards the World Cup uh eager to kind of make itself a sports destination which we’ve talked about right like right now the Middle East is trying to sort out who’s going to be the

Next Sports home uh Saudi Arabia has made some huge moves but Qatar obviously getting the World Cup and then doing one championship and some other things they they’ve been trying to be the Sports Authority there and they’re kind of in a little bit of a Turf War on that with

The Saudis uh and you got Abu Dhabi backing the UFC you got Saudi Arabia doing boxing it’s it’s Middle East I expect in the next five 10 years is going to be like the new Combat Sports Center of the world I mean it’s already getting there right you you’ve got big names already

Stating that you’ve got pro wrestling over there too if you want to count that but I mean I think you know between live golf some of these other things you’re G to start seeing more and more events over there for sure um from the article and investment in

Into one offer the qataris a way to check the box on what was and still is a fast emerging but highly Niche spectator sport deal was led out of qia’s Technology media and Telecom team in DOA and included deliverables such as running at least one show in qar per

Month according to a former one executive quote the idea then was that one’s guitar show would be akin to UFC’s Apex in Las Vegas these would be shows with smaller seating capacity but would look better on television because they were easy to fill uh but nearly two years after right that didn’t really

Happen they finally have it set for March 1st of this year um it was disputed by one’s Financial team uh according to deal Street Asia fiercely disputed so they’re saying that didn’t happen no such agreements were made so you’ve got some differing views depending on former Executives and

Current members um but they did deal Street Agia reached out for um to qia for comment and got nothing then you have the Apprentice they go into this where The Apprentice you know has not done super well yet um Jonathan cowon Global Services Global Services on

Twitter I still call it Twitter I don’t care I’m gonna call it Twitter forever talking about how it didn’t even rank season two didn’t even rank in the top 10 in Singapore which is is not great and that basically in this article uh you know they state that they basically

Got enough money from Netflix to cost cover production but it’s not making a profit uh then the article goes on to talk about saudi’s public investment fund doing live and pfl um and you know basically making their moves which we just talked about uh and then a very interesting note here’s deal

Street Asia understands that one was the listenting conversations with the Saudis as recently as early 2023 but they don’t know if any Headway was made so one’s trying to get in on that too right that might be their new Target especially if the Qatar deal has has gone sour

Um probably the biggest thing though is that deal Street Asia also understands that one championships limited Runway will require qia’s reinvestment especially if it wants to make good on its announced targets to host 70 MMA events in 2024 including four in the US and then elsewhere in Qatar Japan

Thailand and Philippines uh so especially with you know current economic conditions that might be tough and you know if you have those Milestones if that that was a true thing right um and again disputed on if that was part of the arrangement or not where one was supposed to do these Apex like

Shows and it took them two years to just get their first show that’s not great if the sources on this and you know I trust Christie’s work um so I I appreciate her getting both sides of this especially from current members and former Executives and and all this but if it’s

True that the qari sources are embarrassed or disappointed with one especially given the current economic climate and the way Saudi AR Arabia is ramping things up you got to assume qar might pivot away and try and focus on bigger sporting events that can help them compete in that Arena right if

They’re gonna give money to somebody they probably want somebody who has a little bit better of a track record on delivering things um if that’s the case that’s not to say they won’t reup investment if you know chry makes the right pitch and can show the right

Numbers but this also talks about the fact that you know again we haven’t had a lot of one Championship MMA it’s been a lot more focused on Muay Thai and the other things and you could tell one was trying to get that growth right by hosting uh the MU Tha shows and all

That it and and I’m not sure that’s yielded the results they want I don’t know where that stands but it’s certainly concerning from an outsider perspective looking at where they are where they’ve been the past couple years seeing pfl acquire B T to be much more of a

Powerhouse in the MMA space and and be able to offer more lucrative deals and then you have one’s position and you have one Fighters coming out and talking about how things you know aren’t great how they should give warnings to potential Fighters right um I think it was Kevin belong forget which one

Fighter they were basically ones that were like I couldn’t say anything about it I can’t say anything about it just give caution because we’ve had some issues and and there’s clearly been some fighter one championship issues right that we’ve seen in public and that’s happened with every promotion

So I’m not saying that’s a One exclusive problem but having that stuff come to light at a time when you’ve got this report about Saudi or the Qatari is not being happy is Is Not Great perception wise things are rough and if it’s true they’ll end up reaching break even and

Then group level break even that’s the biggest piece I think if they end up getting to a break even piece I I think that reopens talks on investment and a whole bunch of other stuff but they have to get to that piece first I think the

Qatari show March 1 will be crucial for one I think that has to go pretty well if they want to keep uh their investment partnership alive if that goes poorly I think that might be the death nail on that but again chatri is certainly going to make Ovations to the Saudis maybe to

Abu Dhabi although given one or given UFC’s relationship there probably not as much um but you know I I expect him to go to other investors as well he’ll keep selling right but in terms of even if we have the soft Landing in the US and other stuff economically right there’s certainly a

Pullback from Equity private Equity investment right now and I don’t expect that to reopen anytime soon uh at least for a couple years would be my guess that we’re going to see kind of a downturn investment where these investors want feasible tangible Milestones hit and clear road maps being hit with

Profitability in certain time frames right I think the age of unicorns and just wild investment into things with no proven track record at least right now is is closed it will cycle back it always does right right uh this is just human nature this is what we do um

You’re going to have the weworks show up uh I forget what company I just saw recently you know had their valuation cut from like a 100 billion to 1 billion I mean valuation that that right there tells you all you need to know about valuations again like it’s

Just Insanity um we work we work is the is my gold standard of just how ludicrous valuations can get for no real reason uh and how people will throw money into things I think those those Investments are done for the time being and one is going to have to

Deliver in ways that they’ve talked about delivering for a while now but still haven’t shown actual tangible proof of it right um I think their us show going well was big they need to have their next us shows go really well but the Qatar shows the biggest one

Making and selling the Qatar investment is is really what it’s about um if they don’t get that reinvestment from qia they’ll need to get investment from somewhere else otherwise they’re in they’re in big trouble they’ll have to scale back on events they’ll have to uh you know maybe switch

To getting rid of MMA or certain sports that they’re trying to do with this this hybrid stuff of all these different types of martial arts on a single thing it’s you can’t read those articles and look at things from an outside perspective and think you know things

Are are super you know sunshine and rainbows at one right now um again I don’t know that they will die this year I don’t think that that will necessarily happen but I do think they’ve got a lot of work to do to get qia back reinvested with them and I

Wouldn’t be shocked if the main focus is instead to play Kate qia and do what you can on that front but really you know that’s Plan B and plan f is trying to get Saudi or or someone else to back because if if they really are disappointed and

Embarrassed given where Qatar is now in the Middle East uh Sports War I guess if you want to call it right where they were out front with the World Cup um they looked poised to really make some moves there and then they’ve kind of just falling off a cliff in that regard

They’re gonna want to focus on big big moves to get back into it if they’re still trying right um and if they’re not then why would they even invest in one right then they don’t care as much I don’t know where this goes uh

Again I want to make it clear I am not anti- one I want them to succeed because I think more competition is better but they’ve got to really make some big changes and that might be part of the executives leaving right they might be making those changes there and trying to

Trim some costs to show qar hey we’re trimming cost we’re going to hit Break Even because if they can hit Break Even too that really helps settle some nerves on the qia’s front um if you’re profitable even if you’re not making a ton then your investment becomes far

Less risky um if you’re in that endless hole of like hey I just need 50 million more to get to profitability I just need 20 million that’s when it becomes okay at what point is this a sunk cost what point do we cut our losses and get out

Of this so those are the two keys I think for one going forward Qatar and getting to profitability um Qatar show sorry March 1 uh but I still I don’t know relationship in my opinion might be too far gone and I don’t know that they

Pull off what they need to um to get the investment they’re probably asking for from Qatar right the fact that chatri has already made Ovations to Saudi Arabia that might be his new new goal um especially given Saudi Arabia is doing pretty well in that regard right making

The moves that it’s making to make it a sports epicenter it may be looking for more content at this point and that would help check the box so we’ll see we’ll see what happens I just think the the conditions and and where everything stands it’s not great uh for one and

Qatar to to keep working together but I could be wrong be happily wrong let me know your thoughts on it let me know if you’ve noticed uh you know a lack of one interest and uh you know shows right like if you’re a one Championship fan

Are you still excited for them uh are you worried about them where’s that at I I want to hear from you guys because you know customers are really what it comes down to uh would if if they’re coming to your town are you paying to go to a one

Championship show that’s a big one too right if you’re in Atlanta if you’re in Denver how you going because again big things but uh yeah it’s it’s a precarious Place one is in and we’ll see we’ll see where they end up that wraps up another episode and the first episode

Of 2024 of the five business podcast appreciate you guys listening uh if you’re on Apple I guess Stitcher is dead so that sucks but Apple Spotify um whatever podcast method you’re listening to always appreciate you guys if you’re on YouTube hit the like subscribe Bell notification to get all the updates from

Sherd dog and this podcast and um yeah excited to be back little update on my health just real quickly so I know I’ve been very hit and miss consistently I said I was going to get back into it been doing an average R once a month you

Can kind of hear my voice now uh turns out I have a infected nasal pup so I’ve been getting chronic sinus infections that’s part of the reason I haven’t been able to do this because I’ve just been post-nasal drip my throat’s just on fire I can’t talk long I’m coughing as I did

Earlier um hopefully it wasn’t too bad but there’s been a lot of stuff going on in that regard that affects podcasting so I can’t really do it as much I’m looking for these windows to do it but they found it thankfully because we didn’t know what was going on for a

While and I’m talking to an ENT probably going to need surgery to chop that out and fix whatever’s going on with my nose and then hopefully fingers crossed I should stop getting these sinus infections that I’ve been having chronically for a while now because they

Suck so um I cannot promise you when the next one will be I’m gonna try to be every week that I I can right um feeling all right now if this continues the next week for sure uh but hopefully by the end of the month I’ll have a firm date

On when we’ll do the surgery and then once that’s done probably a week or two of recovery and then again fingers crossed I should be back to being weekly but I will keep you guys in the loop on that if you want me to cover any topics

In the meantime or do any extra research I will probably have time for that so let me know um excited to be back again thank you guys for supporting me this whole time especially when I have been as consistent as I’d like to be means a

Lot uh to be able to keep doing this stuff uh and and get some of comments from you guys about my podcast it it keeps me going with this stuff um instead of just throwing in the towel so I really appreciate y’all that listen and engage on this and with that in mind

Until next time y’all stay warm during this polar crap and get money