Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat), Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) and Kyle Dvorchake (@kyletweetshere) preview the conference championship round, but they begin by hopping back on the coaching carousel. Is Jim Harbaugh the savior the Chargers seek, and what will his effect be on Justin Herbert? In Carolina, they debate if Dave Canales is the right hire for Byce Young (spoiler alert: yes). Moving on to the games, they assess whether the Chiefs are really underdogs and what the Lions need to do to spring the upset. On the DFS front, they get into the nitty gritty, discussing players like Justice Hill and Jameson Williams in addition to Jahmyr Gibbs and Deebo Samuel. #NFL #NBCSports #RotoworldFootballShow
Chapters:
(0:00) — Hello and welcome
(5:40) – Chargers ink Jim Harbaugh: Impressions of the hire + potential impact on Justin Herbert
(17:10) – More Coaching News: Panthers pick Dave Canales, Kellen Moore interviewing for OC job with Eagles
(27:30) – Chiefs at Ravens
(42:20) – Lions at 49ers
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Championship Sunday Preview + Chargers hire Jim Harbaugh | Rotoworld Football Show (FULL SHOW)
https://www.youtube.com/NFLonNBC
Hello everybody Welcome to the road World football show I am Patrick Dy joined this Thursday by Mr Denny Carter and Kyle Doric where we are going to break down the conference Championship round including the Chiefs at Baltimore you don’t hear at very much for the Chiefs in the playoffs The four-point
Underdogs find that a little surprising we’ll get to that a little bit later uh the lions at the 49ers their touchdown underdogs find that a little bit surprising too after the 49ers did everything in their power to lose to the Green Bay Packers but we’ll get to that
If we talk about the coaches with Jim Harbaugh has ended his like long hike out of Michigan basically in October he’s like I’m going to the NFL guys yes like couldn’t come out and quite say it but uh man he quit he didn’t quit on the
I guess he didn’t quit on the team but he got suspended twice and then it was like yeah I’m going to the NFL and I kind of like looked really checked out on the sidelines and then I’m looking it up here won a national championship yeah pretty good outcome for the most checked
Out coaching season I’ve ever seen Harbaugh to the Chargers Dave Canales the off offensive coordinator for the bucks was he on the Rams or Seahawks staff before Kyle Seahawk Seahawks fast Riser really surprising higher in Carolina we’ll get to that in a second you know this is a podcast we got a riff
Quote unquote off the top and I’m just um I’m not gonna try to in trap you guys into saying something controversial I’m not GNA bring up Brock pie being a finalist for the MVP what do you think of that um you got you got something to
Say about Brock py just come out and say it to his face Well it can’t as a as a nation we can’t have this happen I mean we’re we’re hanging on by a thread from just coming coming apart as a country and I believe that this would this would
Push us over the edge actually would and I I’m begging the uh the the folks who vote for MVP I’m begging you to consider the health and and long-term existence of the United States in uh measuring Brock Pie as the MVP which is honestly pretty funny if we’re talking
About entrapment of our words what’s worse Brock pie making the MVP I’m just posing the question question to you guys making the MVP Ballot or Patrick Mahomes not making the ballot like he was on top five like I think they can still be voted for like I get that this wasn’t
His best season but like use your little brain who do you think the most valuable players in the NFL are name one and you’ve done it you almost certainly named Patrick Mahomes that is what used to be known in in baseball as Mike Trout syndrome where you couldn’t give MVP
Every single year or you know Michael Jordan like quite frequently did not win the MVP yeah how LeBron James LeBron did not win the MVP I’m sure even some years like Wayne Gretzky probably lost it to like a defenseman or something the blue liner he sets the
Tone back on the blue line yeah he’s an enforcer type and like you gotta give it to him draws this year bretz’s off finess like he has 220 points this year feel like he should probably be the MVP so I I I do I do think we have been
Saved both as a football community and a country because uh when Brock pie absolutely f fell to Pieces against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson went berserk against the Niners on Christmas day that ended the conversation rightfully so there there is no conversation after that Len I’m tired of all the Brock
Pretty ha he is by far one of the five best players on the San Francisco 49ers and only and that’s only probably he’s he’s probably at least one of the seven or eight best players in the 49 if you include top 15 he’s we sure of that
Absolutely you can rope you can rope him into that he’s he’s top three in the NFC West okay you know kidding aside it is great when there are players that break our brains like sports would be really boring if like there wasn’t like this huge disconnect uh between like modeling
And like test and all that like every year yeah Brock pry like 2036 he’s not gonna make the top five this year finally it is like everyone’s like oh great we’re doing Brock party discourse again this sucks I can’t believe we’re doing this you know back in the recesses
Of your cold depleted heart this is exactly what you’d love to be doing like if we knew everything if like all the good quarterbacks look good on film look good in the stats it would not be nearly as fun maybe it’d be healthier for us
But you don’t want that we need you on that discourse I have a 49ers fan who’s followed me for a long time who always tweets at me like why can’t you just enjoy the literal last pick of the draft being good there’s no good rhetoric to
It like well you know well no he can’t be good he was the last my relationship with my father let me take you back to my childhood days about why I can’t enjoy things he tries to be so logic I like can’t you just enjoy it yeah it is funny when when when
Fans will actually come to you online and say listen like you’re driving yourself crazy with like hating my team can you just not hate my team like like there’s nothing to hate about my team and you know the answer is no I will not I will not stop but but they do
Occasionally they will come to you and be like look I like you I’ve listened to you for a long time I think I know you a little bit okay and I’m asking you to take a chill pill and almost always they’re wrong sometimes they’re right I think with
Brock pie they are right and we will talk about Brock prie a lot more a little bit later in the show but we will start with Jim Harbaugh The Prodigal Son returning to the NFL he’s always returning somewhere returning to Michigan returning to college now he’s
Back in the pros after one of the most success ESS F four-year coaching stance we’ve ever seen where he took like a six and 10 awful roster immediately made the NFC championship game made the NFC championship game three of four years he was in San Francisco War out is welcome
Very very quickly but there’s some debate over what really happened there if he wore out as welcome with the team or if he just wore out as welcome with Trent balky as we know is one of the more controversial GMS in the NFL uh Denny it’s really hard he’s over 60 he’s
Been out of the league leue 10 years I guess that’s a concern I feel it’s kind of hard to nitpick this higher and then it is a home run higher for the Chargers you before weren’t quite is sure what do you think about Jim Harbaugh coming back
To the NFL and the Chargers specifically Jim Harbaugh is going uh to have to change like that that that is absolutely the case like and if he’s willing uh to evolve and to operate differently than he did with the ners a decade plus ago
Uh then I think I think they they can be successful because I think you know generally he’s he’s a good team manager uh he’s a good organizer if he delegates to maybe more forward- minded you know play callers perhaps I think that that they they can get it done now real quick
If you don’t mind I actually looked up how his offenses you know primarily we concerned about fantasy stuff here so yeah we don’t care about the other stuff I mean so you know Niners defense along with the Seahawks one of the elite defense of the 2010s uh but the the
Offense the offense is going to have to change now I know they had Kaepernick I know Kaepernick was a mobile quarterback and everything and that’s how it goes with dual threat quarterbacks but in 2012 the Jim Harbaugh Niners were 31st in pass attempts in 2013 they were 32nd
In pass attempts 2014 30th in pass attempts uh and from 2012 to 2014 they were middling in both Rush EPA and pass EPA so this whole thing where Jim Harbaugh can get away with it uh with defense I don’t think is is is any longer true I think that he’s going to
Have to really change the way he approaches especially the offensive side of the ball I think the hardball plan is to be like the best teacher there is which I think his the 49ers teams were like maybe the most fundamentally sent football teams i’ hadd ever seen under
Jim har minus like the Colin Kaepernick clock issues they always had infamously had clock issues and getting the snap off in time but like they came in that first and like I was like wow the 49ers don’t miss tackles yeah like feel like that is kind of the Jim Harbaugh effect
I I not just with the 49ers the conservatism on offense I mean we watched a lot of really big Michigan football games and like I don’t maybe let JJ McCarthy throw one pass longer than seven yards and Kyle do you share Denny’s um not pessimism but Denny’s
Belief that he has to evolve and a lot has changed in the NFL in the past 10 years yeah for sure but I I do think to your point like it’s underrated how good of a coach he was in the NF obviously his teams had Talent too but like you
Said he picked up a team that it’s not like he walked into a system that was just ready for him to start ripping off NFC championships he deserves a lot of credit for that he is it’s like a a relatively low limit of games you set
For it but he is the fifth winningest coach all time in terms of win percentage ahead of his brother John who is the second highest or second longest tenard coach currently in the in the NFL makes PL yeah I know he makes Jon look like a plumber and Jon’s one of the best
Coaches in the NFL so he I mean those teams were incredible I didn’t you said three NFC championships kind of three in a row three or four years yeah there were no expectations I mean people had given up on Alex Smith like uh like it was really through sheer force of like
Organization and teaching that he pulled us off which that’s always a tough like we’re gonna out coach them we’re gonna out fundamental them that’s that is hard to pull off but he did pull they had a lot of talent a little guy Man by the name of Patrick Willis comes to mind a
Lot of really really really like Hall of Fame level players on those teams but they weren’t performing well before he got there and uh yeah I don’t know where we’re going with this I I do have something to throw in here about Jim Harbaugh’s offensive situation here uh
Last year at Michigan now I don’t have access to like fancy pass rate overe expected stuff from college I do have this um the the Michigan Wolverines were 117th out of 133 qualifying offenses in pass rate 40% pass rate last year year like you mentioned Pat like sometimes you would
See JJ McCarthy not drop back for like an entire quarter that’s not even a joke like no no it’s it’s real uh so now you know obviously with Justin Herbert obviously with the past heavy we the past happy nature of the modern NFL like that’s gota if that doesn’t change I
Really think if that doesn’t change like dramatically it’s going to be a disaster for Jim Kyle by the way uh are you triggered uh Ohio State couldn’t beat him um so hey yeah they had to run him out of college they had to run harau back to the NFL
They got I assume we have a winning record against him Ohio State’s got so much nil money they paid Harbaugh to go back to the pros that’s what I heard Kyle has never been more mad in his life he I assume we still have a winning
Record against him I don’t M oh you definitely do I think he’s like three and six against Ohio State but they I was gonna say I I know like obviously their teams are just straight up better than Ohio State for the past years I think we like curb stomped the mess out
Of them for like 10 years you don’t you know who’s uh not mad at all is Ryan Day he’s the least not he’s the most not mad person I’m not mad I’m not mad at all uh my beard is my beard is not eerily black I’m sorry stunningly it’s like there are
Like scientists developing like black paints that absorb like 99.99% of life he is covered in that on his chin it is is black it is off-puttingly black it is it’s too much Ryan if you’re listening you just got to let it go man let that let that gray come through so Kyle side
Tangent saw I saw someone list uh like the All-Star team for Nick Savin like what were the best players all on the team uh that he’s you know he’s ever coached and I was like dude Ohio like Ryan day’s Ohio State All-Star team might be better than that team and yet
Somehow no no nates for us and saan has like nine like not that his teams obviously like he had like Julio Jones and Mari Cooper Devon Smith as his receivers but like you look at the receivers we’ve had I don’t I don’t jul Jones is great I don’t know if we’re
Going to stack up to that but some like generation like Marvin Harrison is G be a generational Prospect like Jamar jaas level stuff Chris Garrett Wilson like all these guys good quarterbacks no natties where are my natties well Kyle I think a point you’re making Ryan day is
A good coach but like it’s still coaching is like the actual art of coaching is probably still underrated and like being a CEO is great being like an amazing play caller like Jim Harbaugh is just clearly an amazing teacher of the game of football real quick though so we’re talking about the hugely
Conservative nature of Jim Harbaugh’s off def is uh that’s been a growing complaint with Justin Herbert you know he doesn’t throw down the field enough it’s always around seven yards per attempt what is this really what does this do for Justin Herbert we’re not getting Herbert Unleashed I think we
Know that like can he make up for it with efficiency and is like a better overall team environment like what is the future for Justin the immediate future for Justin Herbert in fantasy our our Buddy Davis Maddock tweeted this out the other day uh that Justin Herbert is
Tied with Gino Smith Andy Dalton and Derek Carr among active players in yards uh per pass attempt that’s uh not great okay so 7.1 like you mentioned Pat Uh Herbert was 15th and adjusted yards per attempt in 2023 17th in that category in 2022 10th and 2021 and 15th in 2020 it’s
Clear that they’re that he it’s a him thing like like they they brought it they’ve done different offenses they brought in different players joam Marty yes it’s a right it’s a him thing and I don’t think that that’s going to change here now he he by many metrics including
Like uh catchable ball rate and on target rate like he’s Elite and avoiding at avoiding sacks which obviously we know is very important in keeping drives on time scoring points things of that nature Justin Herbert is good in that way but with Jim you’re right though the
Jim Harbaugh hire tells me that the checking down will not will continue until moral improves I guess the hope is though that it’s all this better sequenced and better organized they do a better job of like pick taking their shots and I don’t think he can get more
Conservative than he already has been let’s go back to Oregon with Justin Herbert by he he doesn’t look down he doesn’t look down field and and I I don’t know if that’s just lack of options like I know that like the the entire organization collapses every time
Mike Williams hurts his knee but you know but you you gotta you gotta have a more resilient roster and you have to have like they what here’s what they do the Chargers need to bring in Joe Flaco say Flaco Joe I need you to sit down
With our guy Justin and tell him that it’s okay to throw into coverage 50 yards downfield you can do it it’s okay it will work out sometimes sometimes it won’t but sometimes it will and that’s important the NFL needed that blco wake up call like there’s more than one way
To gain yards and guess what Terry Bradshaw spent the entire 1970s throwing a million interceptions and guess what he did he won four Super Bowls like there are more than I’m just saying just what what wait a second Terry Bradshaw had more picks than touchdowns I think
Like half the years in his career it’s I I actually had to unfortunately I had to have a conversation online the other day on the threads platform where people were telling me that Terry Bradshaw was better than Dan Marino oh yeah yikes that’s because even era adjusted there’s
No argument there what are you talking about I said Bradshaw is not a top 50 quarterback all time no no no there’s no argument stop hold on I was on the Kevin Clark podcast name drop in the other day and we were talking about how uh you know they used
To be he he was talking about he I don’t know if he quite finished the point but there was a time in like NFL football where they would like throw the ball and really not even have an intended target in mind they just kind of throw it down
The field and like see what happened like it’s a lot different than it used to be probably because they were about to get like murdered you know like sacked yes was thr this up and see if something cool happens and you could do it because then the other side was going
To do this it’s not like the other side was going to be efficient they were just going to do the same thing too you know surely someone’s down there and they never were no they never were Lyn Swan Linn Swan was down there once and we had
That on who was that guy on the Cowboys like bullet Joe or something that really really fast guy someone’s gonna we’re exposing ourselves as like knowing nothing for 1999 that really really really fat he was a literal literal track star maybe Drew Pearson yeah I don’t
Know anyways uh we’ll move on from Jim Harbaugh to Dave Canalis who was the Oney year I believe offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yeah just this year he replaced Byron lewi that’s correct he was a very noted for his Seahawks quarterbacks coach work with Gino Smith in 2022 he’s been on
Pete Carrol staff since 2010 actually going back to USC in 2009 so he’s a Pete Carroll disciple he’s only 42 Kyle he’s done a lot of good work every’s been kind of be this was the first year though where it was like upfront work like actually gradable work and the
Bucks we expected to be a lottery team instead had one of the better offenses made the playoffs not the kind of hire I was expecting David tuer to make I was expecting D I guess maybe it is the kind of high expected to make because this a
Young guy who’s never been a head coach before who might be easily controllable but I thought he was going to go back to like recycle City with his coaches uh he did anything but he’s taken a big swing in Dave Canales Kyle what do you think of this higher and it limited track
Record uh but we like uh what we have seen from it yeah I I think what I expected trying to think of what I expected from teer I just knew well I believed at least I wasn’t going to like it because I think they’ve been a poorly run organization ever since they lought
The team this is legitimately a good hire I have no complaints about this like these are the types of guys you should be trying to hire is the sort of rising star offensive minds I think the only other sort of option I mean like tons of teams take other op options
They’re generally bad we just saw it with Frank Reich but I think the only other option is to try and get the CEO type and let him continuously turn through OC’s and while that may be a problem if he’s nailing the CEO stuff maybe that makes it worth it this is the
Other more prevalent and newer path I’d say and so far from what we’ve seen from Canales it’s been really strong performances if he’s the one on the field but really strong coaching quarterback coaching performances both in Seattle really Reviving careers of guys who were like at a cross roads of
Are they a backup should they be in the league or are they a starter are they a backup and got them over that hump and like over two humps for Geno Smith both times with strong play calling good weapons like this is I mean I don’t want
To be true dramatic about Bryce young but like he’s at that crossroads now like in a in a sense he’s at that crossroads now maybe he gets another year anyways but the way he played as a rookie tells me we need to see something soon or they need to go back to the
Draft board at quarterback we we’ve seen Dave canals work the magic twice in a row I make sense to give him a third shot prove like how good you are at this and he’s probably going to bring a lot of his buck staff who’s gonna have follow him also from Seattle yeah Bryce
Young’s basically the point even though it’s only been one year where he needed like a personal tutor type coach like someone who wasn’t just gonna leave after one good year and it might not work I mean the odds are probably that won’t work with Bry Shin just what we
Saw that rookie year but uh if anything was going to work this is the kind of higher that’s going to work and the kind of hire they had to make to try to revive Bryce young and it’s an absolute home run from that perspective it is
That’s a good point about we don’t I we as if like I’m invested in this but you don’t want to see Bryce young if they hire the CEO type of a guy who like let’s say they went for a Harbaugh you don’t want them to have to continuously
Churn through offenses even if one’s successful even if it’s successful you don’t want him to then learn it and then have to go back to the drawing board having only one successful year under his belt you want that consistency of a good offense that’s prevalent year in
And year out if it been a CEO i’ be like we’re bringing in Pat Shermer offensive coordinator right right no no I mean I I I’m shocked I’m shocked by this like like the the Panthers did something right okay for the first time in In Living memory they did something right
And this is you know this could I think there is like some uh some possibility this could go terribly wrong but but but also it could go it could go fantastic for this organization and for brce young Dave Canales who by the way obviously work out we get it Dave you don’t have
To he was actually he was Pete Carol’s strength coach like the tight the tight shirts on game day we get it man you’re you’re Pumping Iron I get it you look great anyway uh uh I mean this is the guy who coaxed Baker Mayfield uh to the 11th highest dropback
EPA of the of the Season 11th Baker Mayfield was a punchline you know KY so was Gino Smith as Kyle said it’s like astonishing exactly ex L and uh I mean you look at who Baker was around here as far as EPA goes he was just behind jayen
Herz and Tua he was above CJ strad he was above Gino Smith and Trevor Lawrence uh so I mean that that’s that’s unbel that’s an unbelievable resume that Canalis brings into Carolina um someone who we probably called an unbelievable hire a year ago for the Chargers was
Kell Moore uh we thought unjustly fires from the Dallas caval it was still possible it wasn’t unjust firing to be honest um but didn’t have a great year with the Chargers because no one had a great year with the Chargers he’s interviewing with the Browns but more interestingly the
Philadelphia Eagles who are already the point in offense where like they’re throwing hail Mar’s basically like Nick serani is like I know people I got people I can call and then Jeffrey L’s like well you better call him yes that’s exactly how it goes no it really is all
Right hey Hey listen I I swear to God I can get his number I thought you said you had his number no I can get it I swear to God I can get it Jeffrey lurry just puts his hand in his face face get out of my sight he got Kell Moore’s
Number they’re going to interview him for offensive coordinator I mean do you either have an opinion what would Kell Moore do to what was a more abund Philadelphia Eagles offense down the stretch uh all right English major geez yeah right we we get it you’ve read a
Book uh look I I actually think that this whole situation is doomed I I’m I’m looking down because I’m actually looking for a quote that I had from serani uh wow can’t find it oh there it is is okay folks I’m going to read this to you because it’s important so talks
About you know Brian Johnson who who was a rising star in not just with the Eagles but in the league okay he’s getting head coaching uh uh interviews he was let go or what Mutual parting ways however they’re phrasing it these days um so here’s what serani said about
Brian Johnson’s struggles or the offensive struggles he said quote this is my offense so the criticism on the offense I think unfairly goes to Brian Brian calls the plays Brian calls calls the place say that twice it unfairly it unfairly goes Brian the criticism of this offense should come at me because
This is my offense I was hired to do a job here and got hired because I was successful as an offensive coordinator with our schemes and different things we blah blah blah anyway anyway here’s what here’s what that means it’s gonna happen again like like this is absolutely gonna
Happen again I would be I’m trying not to overstate it I would be surprised if Nick serani lasts the entire season next year serani I’m sure he bring some good stuff at the table maybe like a one trick pony though whose one trick got figured out halfway through I mean they
Had so many injury issues it’s hard to say but that was a rare type of collapse that you saw from the last year Howie Roseman shares a lot of the blame for what happened to the defensive personel of course but two really critical hires they needed to make after Shane styken
And Jonathan Ganon left and I guess they didn’t nail them and just like d like you said it was it was he’s a great front runner he was mugging for the camera in 22 like all right we we get it you’re you’re winning the football game
Nick and then there the kind of stuff that like the second you’re losing everyone’s like get this guy off my TV yeah you got it he’s like a CEO type like he’s he should be like a CEO type in that two years ago when he was good
It was really it seems like both of his coordinators were really strong coordinators but like he also doesn’t really nail the CEO stuff either like he doesn’t keep the team together in that way he doesn’t have the pipeline of coaches just lined up where like like I
Think if Deo Ryan’s assuming Bobby Slow gets hired elsewhere like he might just be able to keep hiring Shanahan tree kind of guys he absolutely will is like print these guys for he’s gonna print the guys out whereas serani doesn’t seem to have that sort of foresight on either
Side of the ball I’ll tell you what number Nick serani doesn’t have is Kyle Shanahan Kyle Shanahan would not be letting one of his assistants go there no and uh also the whole plan apparently was for serani to cultivate coaches within the system within within the organization and promote from within and
Get to get a little you know like uh functionality like longterm going in in the Eagles organization that’s not happening anymore that has been cut out from under him for good reason uh uh I guess well not not for good reason it was to save his save his skin right and
And and so this is just it’s just inevitable next year I you know this is January so I I get it but next year I believe will be just a completely wasted year for the Eagles just a wasted year just move on it’s kind of a memory hole too like he
Had to give up play calling duties in 2021 like he’s already like cycled through like all like the desperation gambits and I there’s nothing left there’s nothing left but fire but but being fired that’s it I I do agree with the decision I all that being said I’m
Gonna try to remain consistent I it’s pretty sure it’s doomed uh but you have to give it one you have to make sure when a guy was that good last year you have to make sure that like he’s actually just doomed um but they’re probably doomed we are doomed
To uh not be able to finish if we don’t take a quick break we’ll be right back after this the Ohio state is looking to keep Pace with the Front Runners in the Big 10 women’s basketball standings they’ll have a chance to do so on Thursday evening when they face Illinois
Watch the bucke guys and fighting Aon I showdown at 6:30 pm. Eastern exclusively on peacock Thursday evening and don’t forget find all your favorite NBC Sports shows and Amazon music just head to amazon.com NBC Sports the promo only says Ohio State but then I saw Kyle I knew if I didn’t say the
Ohio State you get slapped with the lawsuit he would start screaming again yeah so yeah the nil money they have enough to sue me for not saying it so has been really not mad I I think he’s never cared about the Ohio State slander I think until
Today you know Kyle is the the crying laughing emoji and and when you use that you’ve never been more mad in your life you’ve never been more mad Kyle doesn’t get mad we will move on to previewing the AFC and NFC championship games hosting their first AFC Championship game in franchise
History is surprising fact the Ravens are trying to advance to their first Super Bowl in 11 years they must surmount the mighty Chiefs Denny Carter who in my opinion are surprising fourpoint underdogs not they should be the favorite I guess well I think they should be the favorite I think they’re
Gonna win but four points feels kind of high for me the Ravens were severely tested by the Texans in the first half the division around before going bulldozer mode after the break what do the Ravens need to do to beat the Kansas City Patrick Mahomes lad
Chiefs they need to not throw into the teeth of an elite secondary and uh I think that they’re not going to do that I I wrote in my funnel defense report which you can find on the site uh that I I everything points to the Ravens being
Ultra run heavy in this game I think they’re going to go back to the Lamar roots and I know two weeks ago I wrote a really really long piece on you know the Ravens got to drop back and throw it that’s not happening this week for For
Better or Worse it’s not going that’s not going to happen unless games script goes sideways and they have to abandon abandon the Run uh but one one stat that that that jumped out actually was that the Ravens are the best team in the league in running out of shotgun okay
It’s so you know what what you do when you have Lamar Jackson and and teams are quaking at the at the prospect of him keeping it uh going around around the end so they’re they’re the best in the league the the Chiefs are bottom six
Defending that that sort of run so I I just I think that everything lines up for them for Lamar to have double digit rushing attempts for Gus Edwards to have double digit maybe you get Justice Hill maybe honestly I know look dvin cook is
It is what it is like the guy’s not what he used to be but they seem to like him I could see dvin cook getting getting involved here if games cryp goes right we’ll have to talk about that when we get to the DFS section of our show a
Little bit um Kyle the the chief’s offense didn’t talk about the Ravens offense a really good breakdown the Ravens offense check out the fal report by the way the central reading during these playoff weeks but kind the Chiefs offense is looking increasingly back I kind of wonder in the Wild Card round
Where they just taking advantage like a shell shock Dolphins team in horrible weather but they looked just as back I thought against the bills even with Michel Hardman donating turnovers again uh got get this guy off the field um but is this offense back enough to beat the
Best defense and just what has been the best overall team in football for almost all of 2023 yeah I mean I don’t like it’s I try and base so much of my analysis off of like math and our understanding of the the statistics Drive the game but man
The momes playoff Vibes which are backed by math are Immaculate this guy he’s really good in the regular season he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL arguably the MVP despite apparently not being in top five in the MVP race or whatever but man when this guy gets in
The playoffs he just has another gear in his career in the playoffs he’s averaging 31 EPA per play that would have been second in the regular season this year first last year first the year before that games with over 05 EPA per play he has six Brady and pyton Manning
Have a combined six he’s averaging nearly twice as much EPA per game which is just the cumulative EPA than Brady did in his career in the playoffs like he is I mean he’s just another animal they unleash him more both sometimes as a runner a little bit more as a runner
But they just feel more comfortable letting him sling it in the in the playoffs so volume is there the best quarterback passing the ball is there and he’s a little a little friskier as a runner like I I don’t know how you beat this guy in the playoffs and I think
Three of those 0.5 EPA per play which is insane like that would be in uh over the course of a season the best quarterback we’ve ever seen like talk about like Brock party setting records it would nuke Brock party’s numbers those all come against the bills somehow which is
Just so Furious if you are reading for the bills CU he brings his A+ Plus game to the bill every single time and uh like that’s the only way to to beat him really is if he isn’t the absolute hero that he is almost every single game in
The playoffs he’s so good well that’s just to get into narrative based analysis that is what makes momes I feel like so unbeatable in the playoff he will never make the mistake he just will not make the mistake I’ve never seen a more poised player including Tom Brady I
Not trying to be a prisoner of the moment but even Tom Brady will go meltdown mode occasionally it was pretty rare I mean our our final memory of Tom Brady and new New England was going meltdown mode against the Titans oh my gosh Wild Card round and that was very
Rare but it did happen to Tom Brady occasionally it’s going to happen to Patrick Mahomes at some point but he’s never once Patrick Mahomes has never want except for maybe the buck Super Bowl he’s never even been criticized for a playoff performance even the buck Super Bowl dude
Incredible it was hero and his stupid receivers dropped so many and his linemen which to her credit were all backups could not hold up and honestly I thought he played incredible performance you don’t get to see it in the stat sheet but like he was a hero and
Everyone let him down at every turn absolutely the Bengals one would be the one you point to he didn’t play his best game Bengals and they lost for that reason they did so I guess he’s done it once once though he’s played like 15 games already and he has won like even
The Bengal game he didn’t make like the mistake you know he’s just so absurdly poised and I understand of course why the Ravens are favorite they were the best team all year and it’s a home but I mean to me like the favorites in my heart are the Kansas City Chiefs and
Like until they’re the AFC champions until proven otherwise and I don’t know where I’m going with that I had some more narrative based analysis momes you well mentioned in the funnel report I I I really don’t see a situation where the Chiefs try to be balanced or establish
It against uh against the Ravens I mean the Ravens Rush defense is like frightening like like on on every level yards before contact after carry yards after yards before what I I forget which one I started with anyway it’s all it’s all very good and Isaiah P’s banged up
Has a toe I’m not saying that that’s the end of the world but I I I do think this is a 40 plus drop back game for momes um we talk about the DFS implications of that but if they if they want to win and
I think do uh then they are they are not going to try to like stubbornly run the ball here the only concern I’ve had all year about the Ravens and maybe with their run defense is I thought a lot of times their defensive numbers were inflated like a really really soft
Schedule like they were kind of like the eagles this year we like like every week they’re playing like DTR like Kenny picket or like will Levis like they had one of those like really crazy quarterbacks lates this year then one of the first real quarterbacks they play
Was Matthew Stafford and he lit him up which was very surprising they did though then return the favor against Brock pie they totally shut down Trevor Lawrence they totally shut down Tua and Company but Stafford is better than py by like a long shot so I what is that is that a controversial
Statement I don’t know I actually don’t know anymore I have no idea with Brock my brain is just totally broken so uh it’s easy to have your run defense show out when you don’t even have to worry about the quarterback yeah the Chiefs I feel
Like might be in Bolen in the Run game after what they did last week they they they could start that way sure but they will learn the tough way that that’s not going to happen I remember the last narrative base point I wanted to make
Mahomes is always so poised it was not a poised first half from the Ravens like it would seemed like every John Harbaugh playoff game since the Super Bowl basically like they’re scared like they’re making like uncharacteristic mistakes I was like man they’re in trouble you know 10 10 at half time and
Then though if felt like they exercised the demons in the second half against the Texans where they’re like we’re they were basically like we’re not letting this happen again like we are the better team and they just blew the Texans out of the building in the second half so
That was a big test for the Ravens P so uh Joe thuny uh left tackle for the uh guard guard yeah right left guard for the for the Chiefs uh is dealing with some sort of injury with injury I believe chest injury right he did not practice on
Thursday uh that that’s that’s huge like that it’s it’s going to be it’s going to be a huge Factor if if he’s out I really think that we have to adjust everything if if he’s out they’re gonna give like a horse tranquilizer or something sure sure but I’m just saying if he is
Sideline I think we could have a situation like like the affir right where where the Ravens are able to get there with only rushing four right and when you’re able to do that against anybody including momes the the task becomes much more difficult a few other housek know Mark Andrews is
Practicing in full cadarius Tony is practicing in full I kind of feel like the Tony Hardman As the World Turns it’s going to be Hardman Who’s down this week and Tony’s up like yeah right to the point with Hardman like they have to save themselves from themselves like you
Can’t even he can’t be on the 46 man roster because you’re going to use him at some point if he is and it’s going to be a catastrophic era oh you had an iconic cze off’s Hardman tweet I love that it was very uh that’s probably not
A reference a ton of people get but like I yeah the the check off’s gun is like what it’s the principle like every story element needs to be necessary like and if there’s a gun and that appears at some point in the book like it’ll it’s
Gonna go off at some point yeah I said M Harman was check off’s turnover like if he’s in the game the turnover is happening at some point then of course he fumbled it out of the End Zone it was great and I he really like you can’t
Play he he seriously cannot be active because you will play him if he’s active and he will swing the game um so with all that being said we started getting into like kind of the DFS options there Denny what is what’s like a Ravens X Factor slash some DFS option like kind
Of an X xfactor offensive player which I’m sure also translates to DFS right so I’m I’m thinking it’s Justice Hill uh who over the past four games is averaging a a meager 7.1 yards per attempt um really really quite efficient our our guy Justice Hill uh Gus bus is
Is obviously has has the touchdown Equity he’s going to get all the the uh inside the five stuff so what can you do justice Hill is running more routes I I I do think that I mean just just look it’s a two game slate you got to get
Different somewhere you just have to especially in large field stuff so Justice Hill profiles as that and then if you want to get really nasty really down and dirty you go you go with dvin cook hoping that the Ravens just are absolutely focused on making him a thing
He ripped off he ripped off an 18 yard last week uh the rest the rest was not very good but but man the Ravens just seem they seem super excited about dvin so you know go with maybe go with it it been a while since when your DFS options
Made me feel physically ill so that’s actually a good sign it’s by a while I assume you mean seven days but no remember I had to scold him two weeks ago yeah I wasn’t sick enough right I was I said uh Brock Wright and you were
Like no no no no no no Brock Wright’s when you got back on track you got sick he must have said like Josh Reynolds or something like that it probably it yeah it was probably that get out anyway Josh Reynolds Josh re Josh Reynolds the most
Normy play of all time yeah Kyle same question for the Chiefs potential offensive xfactor and DFS option yeah I hope we don’t see any x-factors man just play it straight X Factor Hardman fumble through the back of the end zone uh and if it’s not Mel Harman fumble through
The back of the end zone it’s cadarius Tony tipped interception of which he has two this year and didn’t even play late in season I think somehow him and you want to like you’d never guess a million years who the second player who had two passes into interceptions tank bsby
Somehow but like what it is yeah I know and I looked I literally found the the film for both of them and it is correct you could put me on a desert island and give me a thousand guesses and I would have yep I know no it’s so strange and I
Found I found the the footage from both games and that is indeed correct the Tony ones are much more memorable he’s maybe he’s better than Mel Harman don’t let us find out don’t it’s it’s probably he’s probably better than mik Hardman really don’t think we need that question answered at this
Point I do think as you alluded to he’ll probably take some of that Mel Hardman Gadget player role has to he has to uh you got to try something other than mikole Hardman who do I think runs the most routes outside of the obvious plays it’s probably Justin Watson but even
Justin Watson’s role has been kind of scaled back in recent weeks in their playoffs it’s only been 55% of the routes he’s the only receiver not Nam Rashid rice obviously with over half of the routes they just clearly don’t have a plan at receiver two or pass catcher
Three if you obviously include Kelsey which is fine just throw to Travis Kelce and Rashid rice as much as you can until the Defense Forces you absolutely forces you to do something else and we have kind of seen that in the playoffs so Justin Watson like Denny said you gotta
You got to try to something different you know we talk about like the Chiefs have to try something different with like mle versus Tony in large field tournaments you have to try something different or you’re just going to end up you know building literal duplicate lineups Justin Watson’s may be that guy
But frankly like I like Denise Justice Hill as a fly better than I like my own Justin Watson in this case um mvs is 62 yards in the division round is second most of the Year say mvs might be second most of the Year man know that was a bad
Sign for the bills when he caught two passes like yep it’s over also very much consider two tight end lineups on DraftKings those those good well you guys someone told me to do that last week and guess so much it didn’t work one time so much money I
Won it didn’t work one time we got a we got a Exile it actually did work too I think the tight ends wer the problem think yeah yeah I was gonna say I think the best were Kate Aon and George KD last week I think well you could you
Could have throw an uton and craft in there I was really devoted to an awful defense last week I’m trying to think of who it was oh Packers no no it might have been the Packers h no no who who did the Lions play bucks I think I think I had full
Exposure to the Bucks def and we’re going home we are moving on to the aformentioned Detroit Lions push to the brink by the aformentioned Green Bay Packers the 49ers are nevertheless touchdown home favorites for the NFC title game against the Lions as they try to advance their second Super Bowl in
Four years Kyle Debo Samuel isn’t practicing a road he did return to practice on Thursday after his divisional absence midgame absence seemed to nearly cost San Francisco the game how big of a loss would that be and what is the 49ers recipe against the lions were they they were just on after
Debo went man it’s like they had never played football for like a quarter and a half and they did recover barely uh just see what are you what are you expecting from the 49ers against the Lions lots of horse tranquilizer they are putting oh yeah Kevin the man the horse medicine
And he is probably playing return to practice suggests he is although it is certainly still undecided should he not play I think it would be not as catastrophic now with something we’ve talked about Pat is when you have a week to mid game like we talked about this on
The recap the mid game plan which I don’t think would have been the we have a week to prepare plan was come out of the second half with a Jaan Jennings end around or whatever like I think that gets written out of the script if Debo doesn’t play like some of those things
Get ironed out I also think it means we see far more George KD and yeah it is a big blow to the offense over the past two years regular season when we’ve seen this team without Debo they’ve averaged 1.2 fewer points staggering 1.4 fewer yards per attempt and 26 fewer passing
Yards like they’re a worst team without Debo those splits do also include games party didn’t play and some of those include games where they didn’t have Trent Williams that was earlier this year I believe was the nonbo yeah the non Debo games they just coincidentally overlap with the non Trent Williams
Games so it’s hard to know how much those splits matter and I I think I’m comfortable giving Kyle Shanahan enough credit to say they will have a better game plan uh like than they did in the second half last week if Debo doesn’t play though I I kind of think he does I
Think I think the more maybe more important splits than pry with and without Debo because you the Trent Williams stuff in there is uh how he’s performed against top half secondaries versus bottom half folks I looked into it and it’s in my column if you want to
Check it out it is quite quite the difference okay Brock pie uh Goes Bananas against uh you know bottom half particularly like bottom 10 secondaries and guess what the guess what the lions are are clearly clearly a bottom 10 secondary I I I do think as a brock py
Skeptic I’m not going to say hater as a skeptic um I’m guessing that it’s going to be a really really tough Sunday night for me because I think per will rip will rip these guys up the passing game and and I think that the ners will be largely forced to take that approach
Because the lions are really solid against the run I’m not saying CMC is like off the table I am saying that they have the weapons to destroy this Detroit coverage unit so you mentioned the Lions defensive concerns but really has been the one criticism the team all year they
Have not adjusted and they haven’t even become like an opportunistic defense really I mean they kind of have but like when you have a bad defense you need to be like the Shawn pton where you need to create like a turnover creating defense you have to be opportunistic as the
Euphemism we always use it haven’t even been that but big concerns on defense for the Lions Denny but an offense I mean how do the Lions spring this upset even if the 49ers looked kind of vulnerable last week it’s just so difficult to believe Jared gof is like
Going to have what it takes on the road yeah what do the Lions have to do limit Jared golf dropbacks I mean I I’m talking like I think you mentioned the other day pad on the Pod uh like 24 jar golf dropbacks I actually think
That’s too many I I think that it should probably be like below 20 if they if they really want to win this game and if the Lions win if the Lions win I think it’s it’s 17 to 13 176 so something like that right uh if the if the if the ners
Win and and and and you know do what they’re going to do against this Detroit secondary it could be something like 37 to six okay like it could be it could be really ugly for the Lions but I think the the the lions are built to exploits
This this 49ers defense th this this Rush defense I believe I was screaming from the uh from the Treetops last week I was saying they could be had Aaron Jones can have a big game here and man Aaron Jones was fantastic huge gains all over the place super
Efficient the Packers Rush EPA was was way way higher than it has been this season against these ners and it’s because it’s because these guys are not defending the Run they’re not reading all that they’re trying to get to the quarterback they want their sacks they want their second and that’s fine that’s
Fine but it but jir Gibbs and David Montgomery I think can both get home you want to talk about getting different in your lineup you throw both of them both them in your lineup what about Craig Reynolds too just all three of them yeah you might as well yeah I feel like the
Lions they have to basically shot for shot remake by the Packers started the game I think the Packers had to settle for a field goal on their opening drive was it a field goal or a touchdown it was a field goal but they scored they
Held the 49ers to a field goal in their scripted opening drive I believe it’s me one of the games the opening drives are always very important uh the Lions have to establish an immediate lead and they have to you they cannot if they allow the 49ers to front run yeah this jerck
Go is not going to come back no no and so so uh the lions like like most smart offenses and obviously Ben Johnson’s very smart attack the middle of the field at a high rate one of the highest in the league uh the ners defend middle
Of the middle of the field passes moff the kids are calling a moff passes better than almost anybody okay so the MF is not gonna be open for our guy Jared that so they’re gonna have to establish it please don’t ever say that again M uh Kyle uh 49ers X Factor DFS option
Things of that nature yeah George KD I mean it’s not a surprising one but I do think even if Debo is limited we’re gonna need to see more of George KD and that’s because that’s what they’ve done when he is previously Debo’s previously Miss time this is from John dle you you may
Remember John dagel our former colleague in these six full games without Debo Samuel and George K’s career George K has a 25% Target share 90 yards per game 20 6% targets per route run an elite 3.3 yards per route run over 20 fantasy points per start he is a superstar when
I mean it’s not surprising when they have to give him the ball more he crushes the only qualm we’ve ever had with KD’s game is like they got a lot of malous De feed sometimes he just catches two passes but even with those two passes sometimes he goes for 80 yards
And a touchdown the problem for him has never been a lack of talent it’s simply that they run the ball a lot and they have a lot of guys who deserve to get the ball when that tree Narrows to force him into the action more often he you
See that he is pound-for-pound one of the most probably one of the two most talented tight ends in the NFL AB he needs eight to 10 targets ever I don’t really care who’s on the team like it their usage of George KD has been criminal I agree and he’s gonna be a
Hall of Famer I I I would say but like statistically it could have been off the charts and could have been special really truly like like it could it could have been like a grank situation um the second every time he gets like more more than six targets he gets like 167 yards
Like it’s totally nuts he doesn’t uh I actually you mentioned Kevin Clark earlier he’s getting a second shout out on the show W uh I heard him say that the uh that the Niners coaches like have like really taught these guys to not go out of bounds and like just to keep
Running and at first the the guys like KD and dbo were like I don’t know if that’s GNA work but it turns out it works because guys are just falling off of KD as he’s running down the field every time he catches a ball yeah that
Makes so much like what if we actually made the other team tackle us yeah maybe other team should look into that especially when KD I mean both of them are like incredible yach guys it’s not like like Tyler Lockett falls down after he catches the ball all the time
Because like yeah he’s small and like he’s gonna get hurt like yeah Debo is a is a butcher knives level Runner after the catch and KD is one of the best athletes bar none in the NFL like you should those guys should be making the other team tackle them test them every
Time I guess they do both get hurt a lot too de also that is true but yeah quite an innovation uh yeah make him tackle you instead of Deo Deo is is maybe like the the guy I think of when I think of a guy who I cringe when he gets tackled
Anywhere on the field I know like I’m like ah is he gonna get up I don’t know I don’t know and last week he didn’t get up on the first three times he was tack no and then the job was finally finished and man it’d be crazy if he plays but
Yeah I agree with Kyle The Limited practice suggests he’s going to play Denny the lions were were where were where you got accused of not being sick enough a few weeks ago with the X Factor and the DFS stuff what do you got for us for the championship round I get I don’t
Know the kids are calling him J okay maybe maybe maybe it’s Jam I’m not not totally I say I say J I say J Jameson Williams you know he’s running a decent route rate I have Somewhere in My article and I can’t find it right now but in two postseason games
It’s around 70% I believe uh it’s nothing compared to Josh Reynolds who was at 88% uh I’m gonna get I’m gonna get disgusting with Josh Reynolds I mean like I’m gonna have him in every lineup man you basically and but there but there’s really nobody else like you
Can’t like this Detroit offense is pretty condensed um I do think I do think Aman ra is a fade this is a hard game to get sick skin you’re absolutely right the 49ers like there’s you’re playing Joan Jennings guess what you’re not winning today it doesn’t even in a a two team
Slate you’re not winning yeah the two the two the two game slate is really really tough to get weird even like in a single game slate I’d say you’re not winning if you’re playing Jan Jennings like it’s just not happen maybe I mean Ravens are are Baron the best team to
Get weird with because they do actually run their receiver core relatively Nelson aalor dude that’s like that was gonna be my example is they like Nelson agalar Rashad baitman like those could be the guys who Spike for one touchdown where it’s like there isn’t a fourth receiver on the lions like it’s Donovan
Peoples Jones running three to five routes if that or it’s it’s Brock Wright who now that we know Sam leaport is healthy doesn’t really play very much he’s out there to block so I I think the Ravens are easily the best team to like if you don’t know their name oh they
Play on the Ravens that’s actually not a bad DFS play Oh I okay all right he went sick I’ll give you sick okay if khif Raymond and suit up for this game folks we’re playing him yeah yeah know that’s a that’s a real good one uh he’s going
To run 12 routes and on one of those he’s going to catch I’m looking at the division round box score uh Chris Conley do you guys know what team he’s on he caught caught a pass in the division around yes he plays for the 49ers amazing amazing appearance I I was
Shocked Ray Ray McLoud caught a pass was this like a fake punt or something Ray R McLoud was in the game yeah they oper mentioned one carry for negative one yards for Joan Jennings yeah there’s just nowhere to get weird these two 49ers and lions teams but
Ravens I totally agree with you guys that’s for the the weirdness Denny who dpj on the lions like that just didn’t happen no no like Kyle said I mean you like if he gets three routes here especially because you know teams get super serious about their playing time
At this time of year obviously for good reason because they want to win dpj is not going to see the field no what happened to that guy it started so promising uh I mean he got away with it bigly he did get away with it I guess
You can’t get away with it forever you can’t keep the podcast going forever it is over today check out the funer report check out all the blurbs Kyle and I were writing stuff it’s just not on the site right now actually I have something it
Came out uh yesterday or two days ago uh review of the rookie running back oh wow hell yeah that’s a really good one it’s a two-parter the second part’s out uh probably by the time you’re listening to this it’ll be tomorrow it was a good Rec
I like that one I’m trying to finish my seasons and review article and I need to name it something more clicky if you have more click baity type uh it’s like an in season recap you’ll be done with by that with that by April I someone can
More click baity title for that please tweet it at me I I need people to click it I know Denny it’s it’s already gone like a masterpiece mode and never go Masterpiece mode not gonna have it done before the Super Bowl I don’t think I we’ll see we’ll see so long from
Now it’s actually not well Denny and I I don’t know if you heard we’re going it’s two weeks from now man no it’s like we’re down to like 10 days it’s 10 days there’s zero way 10 days week and a half no no for radio row folks radio oh that
You have to go I see yeah we gota go by the way Joe thuny is per Adam schfer unlikely to play yeah it’s a it’s a messed up Peck I believe we’ll see what horsey horsey medicine they no I mean I didn’t know I didn’t I hadn’t seen that
Report so that’s yeah just remember that folks when you’re making your LS remember that remember to listen when we return next week remember to keep it lock to rot world.com for Kyle for Denny I am Pat thank you so much for listening we will be back later hey it’s Matthew Barry from NBC
Sports.com and rotoworld.com and I want to thank you so much for watching whatever it is you just watched or if nothing else being too lazy to click out of the autoplay after this video started after whatever it is you actually wanted to watch finished but now that you’re
Here I’d like to take a moment here to ask you respectfully respectfully now okay I’m asking you respectfully to subscribe to the NFL on NBC YouTube channel you’ll get the latest roto world fantasy news headlines all sorts of great shows including my own fantasy football happy hour so go subscribe now
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2 Comments
Mahomes is the real MVP.
Think you guys were talking about "Bullet Bob" Hayes.