Buy, Sell, Hold: 2024 IDP Free Agent Edition

IDP Bets: Tackle and Sack Props for the Conference Championships (NFL Playoffs): https://youtu.be/CRS_JlDEqZ4

With Adam out sick, Josh and Bobby gather in the Sode Shack on a rainy Bowling Green afternoon to play one of their favorite games: buy, sell, hold! This time, the duo is looking at the class of pending IDP free agents and going position by position to decide which players they’re buying, which ones they’re holding onto, and which ones they’re selling. Who are you buying, selling, and holding from these trios? Drop your answers in a comment below ⬇️

2024 IDP Free Agent Tracker: https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2024-idp-free-agent-tracker

0:00 Intro
11:27 Antoine Winfield Jr, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Kyle Dugger
15:58 Lavonte David, Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu
20:46 Justin Madubuike, Christian Wilkins, Leonard Williams
24:57 Danielle Hunter, Josh Allen, Brian Burns
32:48 L’Jarius Sneed, Keisean Nixon, Kenny Moore
38:52 Kamren Curl, Budda Baker, Jeremy Chinn
44:17 Devin White, Willie Gay Jr, Isaiah Simmons
52:31 Bryce Huff, Marcus Davenport, Jonathan Greenard

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I just think that brighter days are ahead for Brian Burns I did actually try to go out and get Brian Burns for two 2024 third round picks the manager in the XFL said no thank you how did he say it though he said I value him a lot

Higher than that I’m saying acent wise yeah I can’t I’m not going to try the Boston accent to make Lauren crash his car off a bridge in disgust welcome to the IDP show I’m your host Josh rer join in the to check this afternoon on my left Bobby Reynolds babo

How are you this afternoon I’m great Joshy it’s a rainy afternoon here in Bowling Green Kentucky the fog was like something out of a horror movie this morning but we’re here we made it I was really scared nothing can keep us down mhm except for illness which has

Unfortunately come knocking for Addie uh that’s why we had to Pivot a little bit for this episode could be golfing though that’s true do we know that he’s homesick it’s true it’s a good we need a pict is raining but I that wouldn’t stop him either he’s going to do the whole

Like uh put the earphone things in his nose is like a he’s in the hospital type of thing you seen that picture I thought you were going to say do glasses and a fake mustache so we wouldn’t recognize them on the golf course with like an umbrella hat and a mustache and a

Mustach sure absolutely um so yes we are doing a little bit of a pivot we were originally going to do a 2024 rookie primer that will be next week Lord willing and the Crick don’t rise yeah and uh we’re going to do some Buy sell hold today babo it’s good it’s uh need

To give me and Adam another week of uh of rookie kind of dive it’s a fun class I don’t know how much you’ve dug into it but um the defensive ends there’s going to be a couple linebackers there’s going to be some really fun Corners um I

Haven’t dug into the safety class quite yet but um yeah man I don’t know it’s going to be interesting to see at the combine how some of these edges test I think you’re going to see a guy like chop Robinson U maybe Elevate in the NFL draft if he testwell we’ve got Deon

Markham you know just an upand cominging quarterback in the league it’s uh it’s going to be a fun year for rookies we have dejon Markham but we don’t have de Markham today there you go yeah well done Addie will be back but yes we are going to do all sorts of rookie content

We’ve got some really fun episodes planned for you all digging into both rookies free agency um you know we’re looking ahead babo Dynasty off season’s in full swing and we are all about 2024 at this point how do you handle the uh the cult offseason stuff right now do

You want to see it do you care I’m seeing a lot of ram stuff and it’s just like all right I don’t I’m kind of passed I would only care at this point if we were in the coach or GM search okay and we’re not so I don’t really

Care yeah this is just kind of unless you’re looking for a new coach or a new GM this is a quiet time of year and then once we get closer to the draft you know the combine is really when I start to like pay attention to what are the mock

Drafts saying for the Colts and stuff like that yeah they’re starting to get fun for the Colts there’s lots of different fun fun places with maybe y’all taking a wide receiver do you take an edge do you take a tight end maybe saw Brock Bowers in one Mark I think

That was DJ’s mock yeah um the Rams are weird right now because the same defensively U Raheem Morris has had a lot of first and second interviews and in my opinion I’m happy to see him go I think that defense has been it’s been okay but he’s a little bit more of that

Ben don’t break mentality and it’s kind of frustrating to watch you just kind of got to outscore whoever you’re playing that week so um would it be a loss probably but I feel like McVey would probably bring somebody else in I’ve heard Brandon Staley’s name kind of Flo

A little bit which would be interesting I could see him in Miami as well fangio out the door on the way to Philadelphia so yeah coaching shakeups we’re going to going be a busy off season yeah we’ll be talking a lot about that this off season

As well we’ve had I believe five head coaches hired now yep uh we’ve had gerod mayo and Antonio Pierce elevated um Antonio Pierce was was the interim in Las Vegas and D Mayo was kind of the coach in Waiting actually written into his contract that he would be the next

Head coach really mm yeah that’s why they didn’t have to interview anyone how many years did Pierce get I’m not sure yeah I haven’t seen interesting to see the money in the years behind that one of course Jim Harbaugh landed with the Chargers uh the Titans Go with um

Callahan from the Bengals and then just now today the Panthers have hired uh Canales or Canal I haven’t seen this um it’s the Bucks offensive coordinator wow yeah so not bad yeah I mean some interesting hires for sure I think it seems like both Callahan and the Bucks

Offensive coordinator both are sort of like that high energy guys respond really well to them they’ve obviously have a track record of success you know seeing that the I’ll look up the Bucks guy’s name I know I’m butchering it but he revived Baker Mayfield’s career in

Tampa Bay this year he was working with Gino Smith in Seattle and then the Bengals have been a Top Flight offense now you know under Joe burrow so did you watch any good morning football this morning I did not uh I saw Kyle Bran’s tweet about what he was saying about

Harball and I don’t really I don’t keep up with NCAA stuff honestly so I don’t really know the stuff that’s allegedly gone on there with Harbaugh and Michigan and all that kind of stuff but um brt went crazy for Harbaugh just talking about how he has taken the most um you

Know misrun uh misor uh situations that he’s been put in I guess it was Stanford first then he went to San Francisco and then he went to his Alma moer Michigan just took teams that had just you know one two three win seasons and completely turn it

Around the next year I think Kyle Brandt basically said that he would put the over under it like 11 wins next year for the Chargers I mean I think he’s going to see that that that team is not going to be very good because they’re so hamstrung by the salary cap they’re

Going to have to make some big cuts and they’re getting older yeah I mean that team is going to have to strip it down to the studs of Herbert Derwin um you know the The Tackle there uh raan Slater and that’s basically it I mean Eckler Keenan Mike Williams Joy

Bosa khil Mack I mean you’re Eric Kendricks I think you’re going to see Henley a lot of big names traded and cut so I think that’s going to be a talent poor team yeah 2024 outside of Herbert and those other pieces we mentioned but yeah I think Harbaugh will build that

Thing back up the right way who are the two steam two teams still withstanding that haven’t hired a head coach yet so there were nine openings I think so we’ve still got it was Brian Brian Callahan and Dave Canales were the the guys that were hired by the um Titans

And Panthers respectively so uh we’ve still got some openings Atlanta is still open um you think that’s belich I mean why not they’ve interviewed 14 people for this job wow so um I don’t know they brought bich back in for second interview Rael still out there um Dan

Quinn Seattle is still open I think I think Dan Quinn will end up being Seattle’s head coach and I think I think it’ll end up it might be Vel in Atlanta be weird to have two Tennesse guys in a row but I think if it was going to be balich it

Would already be balich and from I’m hearing it sounds like maybe Arthur Blank wants to go a different direction so we’ll see the Atlanta job is sort of a question mark in my mind at this point Titans were you ready to move on from

Rael no uh got be happy to see him leave Rael was not the problem I think there was some power struggle issues going on there and I think you know Vel didn’t want to tear things down and rebuild around Levis and ran carthon the GM was

Happy to do that and so Amy Strunk was the owner she said we’ve got will Lis yeah we need need to get younger we need to rebuild we’ve got this quarterback and I think Vel I think that’s what they buted heads over and ultimately that’s

What got Vel fired as an AFC South uh contributor there you got to be happy to see him go there he a great great coach he was a great coach I think he’ll get one of these jobs yeah seats are filling up quick um but I think he would make

Sense in Atlanta I I’d be surprised if he didn’t land one of these jobs I was surprised that McCarthy hung on down there in Dallas after the way that they went out and um that Jerry Jones didn’t maybe shake it up and try to bring a guy

Like Rabel in they just like to stay in the news and you know stay at the top of the trending and uh I don’t know McCarthy had a great year but man the way they went out was pretty nasty so the other opening is the Washington commanders that’s right and I would say

Ben Johnson is going to be the one for that one that’s interesting that um I wonder if benmy has I’m sure he’s interviewed for that um you know with him being the OC there I kind of thought that that was a gradual uptick from him going from Kansas City to Washington and

Then maybe for him to be the head coach there but you know some of these teams and organizations have different mind you know mindsets than we do well they just hired their GM of course new ownership group yeah uh with Josh Harris so I think they want to get a

Quarterback at the number two overall pick they want to get this brilliant offensive mind I think Ben Johnson could have probably gotten hired last off season I think he’ll get this job I think it’s the most attractive job yeah just because you’ve got new ownership not afraid to spend money you’ve got a

New GM in place you’ve got I think the most effective cap space in the league and the number two overall pick yeah I mean in a division that’s pretty good but it’s it’s it’s decent but wable yeah it’s it’s very much winnable if you get the right coach and quarterback in place

Then we saw what happened with the Texans yeah you can do that NFL draft should be really fun this year it should indeed well let’s talk about Buy sell hold kicking it back to the old school days of the big three IDP podcast this has been one of our favorite segments

For a long time and today we are doing a pending free agent Edition where we’ve basically taken some of the top defensive free agents to be and a lot of these guys will be franchise tagged they will be resigned so they might not hit the open market but as of right now

There are some juicy names that are pending free agents and if you’d like to see what that list looks like go over to the IDP show.com we just dropped Adams free agency tracker yesterday that is free for everyone to view and uh it’s not rankings it’s just a list of the top

Defensive guys sorted by points per game so the rankings will be something similar and we’ll have a rankings tic article coming out for the free agents later in February who’s writing that article Josh well you’ll have to wait and find out B you’ll have to wait and

Find out in the middle of announcements week we’ve had a lot of really fun exciting announcements 2024 is going to be our best year yet we’re recording this here on Thursday we just announced Jason King from DF is joining our team he joins Scott suus uh as a new uh

Contributor on the article side and then Steve Falco is the new host of the IDP trade show Johnny the Greek is the new host of IDP bets we’ve got one more big announcement coming on Friday so one more Shockwave make sure you’re tuned in to twitter.com or x.com or whatever the

Hell you call it to find that announcement tomorrow around noon Central time but let’s jump in here babo you have graciously put together a trio of players at different positions for us to buy sell or hold so let’s kick things off at safety with some big names byell

Hold Antoine Winfield Jr CJ Gardner Johnson and Kyle Dugger babo what say you buy sell hold man this is a tricky one um I’m going to sell Antoine Winfield um just off of the hope that somebody comes and gives me a king’s Ransom um I don’t know you know I think

We talked last podcast about um a couple players who might have been worth a first round pick uh I think it was Rin Smith’s name was brought up and then Antoine Winfield was also brought up as well um if you can get a first for him in 2024

2025 you doing a 2026 first for Antoine Winfield that’s too far out too far out you rather just hold Winfield the value of that to you is just it’s not nothing but it’s minimal right it’s just so far out in the future that it just it

Doesn’t even have a lot of of trade value in terms of like moving up in the 2025 draft or the 2024 draft I think you can move up with 2025 picks yeah 2026 um I would rather just hold on to Winfield um I did a my first little rookie mock

With a couple guys um in the XFL today and um man the rookie wide receiving class is really really deep so if you can trade an Antoine Winfield for a first in 2024 I would absolutely do that um C CJ Gardner Johnson is probably the guy that I’m going to buy um just

Because you’re coming off a year where he was injured people aren’t going to be hip to the fact that his you know points per game were influenced by him maybe you know the the points per game versus the end of the year uh points are going to be two completely different things uh

You’re not going to see his name on the top 24 safety you sort by points scored so that’s just a smart type of thing and then Kyle Dugger is the one that I’m probably going to sell even though Kyle Dugger to me is interesting in Dynasty now you’re freed from the bellich wings

You get to actually play more than whatever the snap percentage he’s played over the last four years there in New England and dealing with belich che’s weird defensive backs who he’s going to start to the McCord’s or whatever from one week to the next um so I am

Intrigued by him a little bit um but he’s not somebody that I’m really holding on to tightly so you got two cells in there do I really yes you’re gonna sell Winfield and sell Dugger so okay got hold one of them boys uh sure I’ll hold Dugger I’ll hold Dugger that

Makes more sense we just flip-flop basically cuz I said I’m holding Winfield now if you can get a first for him bye-bye I just don’t think you’re going to get fair market value for a DB um you know and Winfield’s been great his whole career but 17.9 points per

Game I don’t know how many people want to pay that sticker price and so I’ll just hold him I I would rather just hold him if I’m going to get less than what I think he’s worth I agree with you CJ Gardner Johnson 12.9 points per game uh

Big time buy because he’s going to be on a new team more than likely um you know Detroit Not only was he hurt but we saw a lot of guys relevant in that defensive backfield Brian Branch fetu malaan wo right so I don’t know how much there is

Left on the bone for CJ Gardner Johnson so I’m excited for him to hopefully get a good deal and a good landing spot but he’s my buy and then yeah I think Kyle Dugger is the cell because you have you know also question marks with Gerard

Mayo but New Hope so I’m looking at the question marks of well what is this what does his role look like what if he lands on a new team you know I was listening to the underdog football show yesterday and they mentioned both Winfield and Dugger as almost no-brainer franchise

Tag guys so I think both of them will be back with their current teams but I’m I don’t know until until proven otherwise I kind of assume that gerod Mayo is just going to be similar to belich on the defensive side of things so I think I’d

Rather sell hope to the other managers in my league look this is a guy that had 11.7 points per game 106 tackles he’s got a new defensive coordinator bich che’s gone and see if you can get something for him but yeah so I’m holding Winfield buying CJ Gardner

Johnson and selling Kyle Dugger let’s which of these guys would you like to see stay at their team or leave I think I’d like to see both Dugger and Winfield stay and CJ Gardner Johnson go somewhere else makes perfect sense so let’s talk linebacker very juicy Trio here lante

David Bobby Wagner Frankie louu byel H babo David Wagner and louu yeah um you gotta probably sell Levante David 133 tackles four and a half sacks now what do the Bucks do in 2024 is a huge question mark do they continue to roll out Baker Mayfield and um you know

Try to franchise tag Mike Evans and then just run it back again to see what they have I don’t know but lante David is 34 years old that’s also in um Adam’s list of free agents at the IDP show.com their ages in there as well um so lante David

Is the one that I’m going to sell kind of for the same thought process as um Antoine Winfield I think that both of those guys off of two pretty epic Seasons if you can get a good return for them I mean David is a whole lot closer

To the end of the his career than the beginning um I’m going to hold Bobby Wagner just because that’s what you do with a guy like Bobby Wagner he is an Aaron Donald uh Luke Keeley a TJ watt a miles Garrett type of category to me Max

Crosby uh Nick Bosa uh you have these guys you ride them forever if somebody comes and offers you something stupid absolutely trade them but um Wagner 183 freaking tackles three and a half sacks 15.6 points per game um he’s just a guy that when he hangs it up I’m still happy

That he’s on my squad I just eat it and move on and then Frankie louu has the most ambiguous probably situation going into free agency um will another Savvy team bring in a guy like Frankie lvo I have to feel like 125 tackles five and a half sacks some GMS

Are going to be intrigued by the numbers I just don’t quite know that the play of Frankie louu um moving forward is going to be as good as what we’ve already seen so I don’t know he’s a skeptical byy I think you’re going to have other managers that are probably going to be

Ready to sell so maybe you can get him at a little bit of a discount I don’t know he’s a he’s a great area for me right now yeah he reminds me a little bit of a Kaden Ellis situation where it’s a linebacker with some pretty prolific pass rushing upside so he was

My buy as well 125 tackles five and a half sacks 12.3 points per game so I’m buying louu I think that he is one of those players that a smart defensive coordinator GM head coach is going to scoop up in free agency and and plug into a situation that allows him to

Flourish and then I just flip-flopped I’m going to sell Wagner and hold lante David I mean lante David was so good this year I mean playing some of his best football in his what age 34 season yep 34 I think he’s the guy I’m happy to

Ride off into the sunset with same as Wagner but for this exercise I’ll sell the guy that um was just a little lower in points per game and I think Levante David reading the leaves I think he’ll be back with the Bucks I think he’ll probably take a team-friendly deal to

Stay in Tampa Bay I think they’re going to run that thing back I think they’re going to franchise tag either Winfield or Mike Evans bring back Baker bring back Levante David and see if they can win the South again in 2024 which they might and there were no signs showing

That Levante David was um was regressing in terms of you know age at all he he was amazing this year but I wanted to pull up Frankie luu’s PFF numbers um so in 2023 he finished with a 78.5 grade um overall defensively he had a 74 uh grade

In run defense he had a 50 tackling grade but he also had a 90.1 pass rush grade so um all of those were better um except for the run defense than 2022 so I don’t know man I think Frankie louu could find I think he’s going to make a

Little bit of money this I think is I think he’s going to be one of those kind of under the radar maybe for folks who aren’t into IDP like who’s this Frankie l only 27 years old I mean so what was Kaden Ellis Kaden Ellis is probably a

Little younger than louu when he hit the market last year and I think I think he got like a three-year $22 million deal I’m pretty sure Kellis is 28 okay so they were about the same age so I could see a Caden Alice type deal for Frankie

Louu um dude’s just a playmaker a little banged up this past season Frankie louu have a better 2024 than Kad Nellis did 2023 I think so I know Kad Nellis was a little bit Bang up he missed some time um but I think louu is probably a better

Player than Kate Nellis I think so and you’ve seen way more I mean Kate Nellis was paid based off of a half a season five games where he just went ham um and had a ton of sacks Frankie louu has now several years of data showing that he’s

A pretty decent linebacker I agree let’s move to defensive line and buy sell hold Justin matab Christian Wilkins and Leonard Williams I’ll go first on this one B so we are going to sell Justin matab just because of the sacks right 13 sacks 56 tackles 14.4 points per game I just could see

The sacks regressing in a big way coming off of for you know 13 his career high by far uh they speculated on the underdog football show they think he’ll be back in Baltimore um which would be great but I think it’s just really good

When you can cash out on a guy that came from semi security to finish as the D tackle too by Big Three scoring so I’m always going to fade this sort of outlier production from guys especially ones that rely on interceptions or sacks um and then Christian Wilkins is going

To be my buy because I think there is a chance that um the Dolphins might have to move on from Christian Wilkins they may not be able to bring this guy back they’re in a little bit of Capell I think there’s been speculation do they let Jaylen Ramsey go uh maybe one of

These Edge rushers gets traded of course that’s a hard thing to do with both of them on IR right now true but they’re going to have to make some moves they’re in a little bit of cap trouble so Christian Wilkins could be on the way

Out and he if he hits the market will get an outrageous sum of money and then Leonard Williams is just my hold just because I don’t think you’re going to get anything for the guy um 62 tackles five and a half sacks 9.5 points per game so nobody’s excited about Leonard

Williams I’d rather just hold on to him as like a d tackle to biwe fillan type of option yeah um wow those are good those are really good I’m probably going to also hold Leonard Williams just because I don’t feel like there’s a ton of value in trying to buy him or trying

To sell him right now um I’m G to flip them just for the sake of argument let’s sell Christian Wilkins um maybe off of the same premise of Justin matab that um 13 sacks for um Justin m is pretty awesome I mean Adam was talking about it

Last podcast that you know are we going to see another season like that I don’t know are we going to see another season with 64 tackles and nine sacks out of H Christian Wilkins that’s a lot that’s nine sacks is a lot you know that um Vic fangio defense had Christian Wilkins

Really busy Vic fangio is gone now we’re going to see a new home for Christian Wilkins I’m maybe selling off of the same premise that um that you would Justin M I think you did you just say that you think Baltimore retains it seems likely I think um man that would

Be so fun I think Justin m is uh is prime for a good couple of D tackle years I think he’s going to be solid especially if he stays in Baltimore he’s just not going to be D tackled too probably so let me tell you Justin M’s

Last I’m saying Justin M because matay matuk whatever you want to say matake Johnny Greek Johnny the Greek we really don’t know how to say it but the pass rush grades are really good uh 75 overall grade um a 77 pass rush grade you know Justin in man 13 sacks sounds

Like a lot but would you be surprised at all to look up next year and see that he has nine or 10 sacks I would not I don’t think he’s going to regress to like a three four sack year but I don’t know that he’s going to put up another 13

Yeah I mean we saw it with quinnon Williams right it happens even with really good interior defensive lineman so I I wouldn’t be surprised if he was down at four or five I don’t think he’s going to be like two or three yeah um

But I mean 13 is a really high number I think this could be a peak season out of all these guys not only Justin M and Wilkins but also maybe Leonard Williams well here’s the thing if you want to go sell Christian Wilkins buy Zack sealer

Yeah right he was D tackle three I think in our scoring system so get the guy who is actually more productive than Christian Williams who doesn’t have the name recognition probably won’t cost you that much that’s true so let’s do Edge rushers babo and did you give your

Answers yes you did didn’t I did okay so let’s do Edge rushers and this is probably the juiciest Trio of the bunch cuz it is just three studs now one had a down season but two were absolutely in Fuego for your teams in 2023 denil Hunter Josh Allen Brian Burns Buy sell

Hold babo Hunter Allen and burns I’m going to shake it up from you just a little bit okay I’m GNA sell denil Hunter uh 29 years old 18.9 points per game he played 78% of the snaps uh for the defense there in Minnesota um this was probably a peak season right I

Mean but let’s play Devil’s Advocate you could also say the same for Josh Allen um yes 66 tackles 17 and a half sacks 17.5 points per game 76% snaps there for Jacksonville but I’m going to defer to the age here even though I like denil Hunter he is only a couple years removed

From having a pretty serious neck injury and I know he’s been healthy and that’s great we hope he stays that way um but I’m going to choose to hold on to the younger guy in Josh Allen I’ll sell to denil Hunter and then I’ll just hold Brian Burns I can understand uh hear

Your logic behind probably Bri buying Brian Burns we talked about that last episode as well um hopefully the new head coaching regime in there gets Brian Burns motivated to some extent to either keep him or um it’s going to be really interesting to see the difference in

Money between Josh Allen and Brian Burns because I feel like in my opinion as far as like ID they’re really similar um we go to the IDP show.com if you’re a paid sub you actually get access to Adam’s ranks right now Adam has Brian burn Burns is

The Edge 12 he’s 25.8 years old and he has Josh Allen as the ede eight he’s 27 years old yeah so the thing for me this is just all about really perceived value for Brian Burns that’s why he’s my buy uh we’ve talked about this on a couple

Episodes episodes already but um 50 tackles eight sacks 12.4 points per game 77% of snaps um I just think that brighter days are ahead for Brian Burns I did actually try to go out and get Brian Burns for two 2024 third round picks the manager in the XFL said no

Thank you how did he say it though he said I value him a lot higher than that I’m saying accent wise yeah I can’t I’m not going to try the Boston accent to make Lauren crash his car off a bridge in disgust um so that’s the thing for me

Is I don’t think even if you can’t get him for this sort of depressed value we’ve been talking about he’s going to cost the least out of these three let me ask you this by far what’s the most you would pay for Brian Burns um I think a

2025 second round pick is probably the most I would give would you give a 24 second no too much cuz 24 second just a little peek into the rookies um you’re looking at maybe a verse maybe a Dallas turn Turner maybe a lot to um I don’t know that’s tricky just

Because there’s I I believe brighter days are ahead but I take that belief right up until about the like if it was a late 2020 4 second rounder 210 to 212 I think about it but that’s about where my belief in Brian Burns is kind of rebound stops yeah I

Don’t want to have to pay more than that to find out if I’m right um now will say denil hunter versus Josh Allen both these guys insane production this season Hunter 83 tackles 16 and a half sacks 18.9 points per game Josh Allen 66 17 a

Half and 17.5 so I think you’re looking at potential outlier seasons for both of these guys yeah and so the the question for me is who do we think has the better chance to regress back to kind of their typical season performance um I think it’s probably Josh Allen you’re probably

Right this was an extreme outlier for Josh Allen but he has been I mean so his first season 2019 188 points 10 and a half sacks he got hurt in year two only played eight games two and a half sacks uh 57.7 five points but then the next

Two seasons 21 and 22 he scored the exact same number of points 207 207 7 and a half sacks in 2021 six sacks in 2022 and then this was 29 4.3 off the back of 17.5 sacks so let’s go back also and look at Adams ranks Josh Allen in

2023 um what did we just say he had 15 Point uh 17.5 points per game in 2022 12.4 points per game in 2021 13.4 points per game Let’s also look at Brian Burns Brian Burns in 2023 what did we just say here 12.4 points per game and

2023 15.4 points per game and then 2021 12 points per game so I’m probably with you I think that Allen regresses to the mean a little bit off of 17.5 points per game probably down to that 14 15 points per game category but I think we also

See a bump for Brian Burns back into that 15 points per game I think so I would expect him to settle north of like 13 and a half points per game flirting with 14 to 15 points per game my rationale for selling Allen is I think both denal Hunter and Josh Allen will

Regress yeah closer to like that you know I mean almost 19 points a game 1 points per game’s they’re probably going to go down the most likely scenario so I think I can sell Allen for a little more because he’s younger right if he hits free

Agency he’s going to get a bag so I think I can fetch a heftier price for two guys that I see pretty similar now if you want to flip that logic and say well I’d rather just hold Josh Allen and sell denil Hunter because Josh Allen’s

Younger I get that too this is a coin flip for me on these two where uh which of these guys or where I know we’re going to do a separate episode talking about this but but any juicy spots just because these are the juicy guys you

Want to see these guys go I don’t think there’s any chance that Josh Allen makes it out of Jacksonville really yes there is no chance I think he will be there the decision they have to make is on Calvin Ridley because if they let him go if they resign Calvin Ridley they now

Owe the Falcons a second round pick as opposed to a third round pick if you use the franchise tag on them to keep your second instead of you know sending that second now you can’t franchise tag Josh Allen and he walks out the door I think think that would be organizational

Malpractice so I just don’t see a world in which Josh Allen is not on this team and then denal Hunter I mean pick any of the edge rusher needy teams what if Atlanta Falcons come and get this guy right uh that would be a lot of fun any of those uh Washington commanders

They’re going to have a ton of cap space uh Chicago Bears yeah I mean pair him up with uh Montes sweat that’d be a hell of a lot of fun gosh absolutely but I’d love to see him back in Minnesota I mean sometimes especially for dynasty um continuity is good right unless the

Situation was like a Bryce Huff situation where this guy’s just not going to get his opportunity or a bobo car situation this guy’s not going to have a chance to flourish he needs to go somewhere else to get that number one Batman instead of a robin opportunity um

Otherwise yeah I mean denil hunter is the guy along this defensive line I’d like to see them come back sounds like they’re going to keep the coaching staff the same with Brian Flor as there so I think keep him in Minnesota yeah a lot of moving Parts this offseason for

Minnesota we will do a free agency preview episode later in the offseason uh talking about ideal Landing spots as well and then we’ll recap all of the landing spots once the legal tampering period starts on March 11th and then free agency officially opens on the 13th moving on to cornerbacks babo we have

Leria Sneed kesan Nixon not CH not Christian Nixon uh or Kristen ni I think we went to school with her and Kenny Mo so buy sell hold sne Nixon and moreb man sounds like a law form yeah Law Firm um gosh just because of my love for lerus need I know this is

Going to be tough um I’m probably with you here Josh I’m just GNA hold the jerus sne I don’t really know that anybody is going to come and buy him right now just because there’s kind of that new hotness in Kansas City with Trent McDuffy this does Kansas City even

Retain this guy they have the ability to I don’t exactly know what Kansas City’s cap looks like and I think they have way more needs they have a lot of inspiring contracts maybe they’ll have the room then um I saw where they Brad SPI Brad Spielberger of over the cap is

Projecting Chris Jones at I think uh four years $120 million so $30 million a year in terms and Brad is bang on with those projections so I would fully expect Chris Jones to get 30 million per year golly so I don’t know that they’re going to be able to keep Sneed as much

As they should yeah that’s that’s I didn’t realize that that number was going to be quite as high for unless you let Chris Jones walk and just try to go get some defensive interior guys Chris Jones is he’s such a prolific pass rusher he’s one of one in that regard I

Think let’s talk about him real quick 30 tackles on the season 10 and a half sacks 29.6 years old and 12.8 points per game he’s always been super up down boom bust for IDP but I mean we saw him generate the pressure that caused Josh

Allen to miss that throw in the end zone in the divisional round so that’s what you pay that guy for it’s interesting too like a team that comes for a guy like Chris Jones um you got to be kind of in a window to really need a Chris Jones you know and

Maybe Chris Jones goes and just gets a bag from Washington because they throw him a ton of money I think uh Chicago makes a kind of sense but it it’s going to be interesting to see his money versus like the other D tackles we talked about justtin him and I I know he

Will but it almost makes sense for me more in terms of like a GM position to go and grab one of these other guys who might be a little bit of a discount and they’re a couple years younger it seems to me as much as this contract has turned into another disaster with

Buffalo and Von Miller it seems like to me is there a championship Contender out there that has some serious cap space Feels Like We Are One Big Splash move away on defense from pushing for a Super Bowl that’s a team that I think could make sense for Chris Jones and Chris

Jones was very influential to that Kansas City Line this year call office was okay FAU whatever but you could tell Chris Jones was really I don’t know where he wash as far as like total pressures on the year but he was awesome anyways let’s get back to um cell lerus

Sneed um just because maybe you’ve seen the best as far as points per game still think he’s a talented player um but maybe him as a Kansas City Chiefs was the best you’re going to see I’m going to hold kissan Nixon I’m going to maybe hope that the Green Bay Packers

I don’t think that Nixon is going to really ask for a ton I could see this maybe being more of like a Team friendly type of deal and I love the punt kick return he had 95 punt return yards and 782 kick return yards he averaged 13

Points per game in Big Three scoring going to the house against the ners didn’t he dude I mean and he he won some games there for the Packers and not only that but I think we talked about late last off season that oh my gosh what

Happens if a Marcus Jones or a kissan Nixon starts playing more defense and you’re seeing that here with Nixon Marcus Jones fell off the face of the earth I don’t know what he’s doing um so I’m going to buy Nixon then I’m just going to hold Kenny Moore I think Kenny

Moore we can hear more from the uh the Colts offici andado over here as far as whether you think you can retain him or not uh but 93 tackles and a half sack is a pretty pretty stellar year there for a corner yeah I’m going to buy Kenny Moore

Just because I think public perception may still be a little bit down on Kenny Moore uh just because he had the Bad season two years ago people thought he was just you know a product of that system or whatever or uh just a flash in the pan but he obviously came back with

A vengeance here 12.9 points per game and I do think we’ll bring him back we’ve got a few guys uh Braden Smith we’ve got Grover Stewart Kenny Moore Julian Blackman so I I think personally we’ll bring back Smith Stewart and Kenmore I think we’ll let Blackman walk

Probably and because there’s going to be some safeties available and so I’d rather us just go plug and if you want to let Stewart go I’m not letting a starting caliber tackle go and Braden Smith and I mean a really good slot corner like Kenny Moore team leader sort

Of face of the franchise a little bit on defense you know I I would prefer to keep that guy so I’m gonna buy Kenny Moore just because I think he’ll be back in Indianapolis playing that same role in the Gus Bradley defense I’m going to sell kesan Nixon just because if he does

Land somewhere else and even if he stays in Green Bay so much of his production and points come from the fact that he has kick and punt return yeah and I just think that is a little tricky year-to year to bank on that we saw that with

Marcus Jones right so I think Nixon has a little stronger grip on that than Marcus Jones did in New England but it just makes me nervous to bank on Kick and punt return yards and then lerus s I’m just going to hold him yeah I’m just going to hold him because I think

Wherever he ends up and hopefully it’s Kansas City I think he’s going to be one of the better slot corners and as we know babo you want those slot Defenders because they’re closer to the line of scrimmage they get more tackles I mean look at all

Of these guys north of 70 tackles Kenny Moore 93 tackles that’s pretty good y I don’t know that gets any better for him but I’m I’m with you if the Colts retain him uh Kenny Moore’s still real appealing for dynasty yeah I have no reason to fade Kenny Moore if he’s back

In Indianapolis so let’s talk safeties though and this is a juicy Bunch as well Cameron curl Buddha Baker Jeremy chin Buy sell hold I’ll could us off on this one babo so I am going to sell Cameron curl 84 tackles one sack 11.4 points per game I think he did just enough to

Satisfy the Cameron curl Believers out there uh who think this guy is an elite DB option for IDP I think he’s solid I think he’s somewhere in that top 24 mix for safeties in IDP uh but I think if there’s still excitement and Buzz and enthusiasm in your league or you know in

IDP in general for a guy that is just the production is a little bit below the buzz I’m always happy to cash out on those guys and like I said curl is fine but we can find 11.4 points per game so I’m GNA sell cam curl I’m GNA hold

Buddha Baker just because what are you going to get for Buddha Baker at this point and I do think 9.1 points per game 87 tackles sort of like well we’ll talk about the real Brian Burns comp here from the same team in just a second but I think brighter days are ahead for

Buddha Baker I think he’s going to land I would love to see him land on one of these teams that’s actually pushing for a Super Bowl right rather than just toiling away in Atlanta yeah I would love to see him land somewhere that’s going to need some safety help and

Revive his career and revive his IDP dominance and then I’ll buy Jeremy chin uh 28 tackles one sack 4.1 points per game just the physical specimen we saw flashes of it and just an awful situation in Carolina the both regimes did not want this guy did not know how to use this

Guy so I’ll go throw out a fifth round pick to see if Jeremy chin lands in a situation where it could be a arrow up for this off season so yeah by Jeremy chin uh Jeremy chin over the last couple years yes 4.1 points per game this year

But also missed a whole lot of time uh in 2022 averaged 10.6 points per game game and then in 2021 11.6 points per game um in 2020 he averaged 13.5 points per game that goes back to his rookie year there in Carolina what the peaks of

Jeremy chin can look like and uh 2020 was pretty special I don’t exactly know what has happened in order for Jeremy chin to really lose value quite like this um I’ll hold Jeremy chin um 6’3 220 pounds Jeremy chin gosh and the point totals 201 his rookie year 185 115 49

Man he was just a baller in 2022 so you can’t you mean in uh 2020 2020 yes sorry so it’s you can’t get any lower like I don’t think it and if if you pay a fifth and he washes out of the league in a

Year or two who cares what’s the odd hit on your fifth I think you have a better chance of hitting on Jeremy Chen rebounding than you do on hitting on a fifth round rookie yep abolutely if you got manager who maybe spent all their picks and wants to get in on the rookie

Draft action and they have Jeremy chin see if you can flip him a fifth to get that guy absolutely I’m going to hold Jeremy chin I’ll buy Buddha Baker um just because I I agree with um what you think as well Josh that a team is going

To bring in a Buddha Baker just like a Philadelphia is going to bring in a Kevin byard just like Detroit brought in uh CJ Gardner Johnson for a year they didn’t really anticipate him getting hurt obviously um but I think a good organization a smart organization that’s

Um trying to win a championship a team like a Kansas City a team like um you know um I don’t want to say Philadelphia what happens in Buffalo yeah exactly Hyde and puyer do those guys stick around both very old they got Taylor rap still there but I agree that

Would work also San Francisco I mean Green Bay there’s lots right I mean there could be a lot of good fits for Buddha Baker um oh Dallas would be fun I don’t know what they’re H they’ve got They’re bringing back two of the guys I think think Malik hooker maybe is a free

Agent one of those three is a free agent I think Wilson and curse are the ones staying then I think you’re right hooker is leaving um but yeah cam curl me I mean the hype was so high for cam curl this year and it’s still High um

Probably not not quite what it was preseason but yeah the cell here is Cameron curl 84 tackles one sack 11.4 points per game I’m just he’s fine exactly like what you’re saying Josh even with the the fluidity that is this safety Market from one year to the next

In IDP he’s somewhere in that one to 24 I think he’s closer to like that 12 to 24 than he is like a you know he’s not in the froth he’s he’s he’s just okay he’s uh he actually had a better season his rookie year oh wow big three scoring 178 points in

2020 145 in 2021 115 in 2022 and 170 and he played a lot this year drick Forest got hurt pretty early on um I’m not sure who the other safety was yeah we should mention he only played 16 games uh 16 games his entire career except for 2022

When he only played 12 games I gotta so 115 tackles a sack a force fumble and a fumble recovery so again this that’s solid but I’m I’m happy to sell if the excitement and Buzz still exceeds the production agree so let’s move to linebacker and this was probably the

Hardest one for me to sus out here Baba you did a good job putting these together let’s talk about Buy sell hold Deon white Willie Gay Jr and Isaiah Simmons I’m going to let you go first because one of your favorite players is on this list okay let’s um Isaiah

Simmons’s value is so low right now that he has to be the the let’s say by just because I mean a fifth probably gets you Isaiah Simmons at this point and we talked about it on the last episode that what would have happened if Isaiah Simmons had stayed in Arizona and he had

Played 90% of the snaps he would have asked averaged a whole lot more than 6.3 points per game and then going into this off season the outlook for a team bringing in the seventh pick in the 2020 NFL draft would be a whole lot more there would be way more GMS paying

Attention to this guy but I think that this is the floor for Isaiah Simmons it’s probably this is as bad as it gets there were just people there in front of him there were some pretty decent linebackers and there were some pretty decent safeties I think he played the

Whole season there for uh wink marale and that’s a he just didn’t play a whole lot I need to look and actually see what his snap count was on the year but it had to have been pretty low but anyway so we buy Isaiah Simmons I think we sell

Willly gay um I think we sell Willie gay with the hype that you know like a bobo car like one of these guys in the last year or two Kaden Ellis that his next landing spot is where he’s going to really really take a step but I mean

Even on what he did this year in Kansas City which I know he was a little bit injured but 58 tackles eight points per game I I mean exactly like what you were saying about cam curl we can find eight points per game that’s nothing um and

Then I think you hold Devin white I think of the two guys right there most people would tell you to go get Willie gay instead of getting Devin white but let’s let’s do what others aren’t doing right now maybe we’ve seen the worst of Devon white EXA exactly

Like what you were saying a minute ago with Jeremy chin we saw what 2020 looked like was it 2020 or 2019 for Devon white I think it was 19 electric I mean he had 11 sacks that year I don’t know how many points per game he averaged in 2019 I

Don’t know if Adam stat go back that far I feel better Addie but um yeah I don’t know I think we maybe just flip the model on its lid a little bit and while people are selling Devon white maybe we maybe we acquire him yeah so I’m GNA

Sell Devon white okay um just because I’m worried that the end may be coming for him faster than we realize I’m worried this may be a jayen Smith Dion Jones I know he’s I know he’s younger um but you know it just the bottom can fall

Out quick when guys are not good and so yes I think he is a buy overall for me but in this exercise stacked up against these three guys I would rather buy Willie gay because I think Willie gay um has maybe I don’t want to say he’s a

Like a better player or has demonstrated more in the league because I think for as bad Devon white has played recently he has put more on tape than Willie gay overall collectively in their careers but I think that Willie gay will have a friendlier Market I’ve called him like a

You know the Bob o car light in terms of what I think he could get this off season I I want to look up and see what uh Brad Spielberger has him projected for well let me tell you this too Willie gay points per game in 2022 was actually

14.7 points per game um I don’t know how many games Willie gay played this year I know he missed quite a bit of time um and there was the weirdness that is Drew tranquil and Leo Chanel and tranquil is going to be gone and and you know now

Willie gay will be able to probably be an lb1 on a team or does a team bring him in to be kind of a Dre green law I don’t know that’s that’s yet to be seen um but I agree with your logic there behind uh Devon white behind Willie gay

Yeah so I’ve always been a Willie gay fan I think he just hasn’t gotten a chance uh to really shine there and you could say well it’s because he’s not that good of a player that he had the cream has not risen to the top but I

Think there have been examples of guys that have gone out of the shadow of better players and played really well elsewhere so that’s kind of what I’m banking on I’m not looking at this as like I’m gonna go pay a second for Willie gay if I could get him for a

Fourth right you know I’m not going to pay a third probably he’s 26 years old yeah he’s still young I think he’s a good player I think he’s got pass rush upside um uh so and then I’ll just hold Isaiah Simmons because I don’t want to

Buy him because you said he’s at the floor I’m worried that floor might have a basement beneath it sure right and but I do think much like Jeremy chin these are hyper freak athletes who have been miscast and misused my only concern with chin or with uh Isaiah Simmons compared

To Chin is that chin has been moved around like deep safety slot Corner strong safety in the box but he’s always played Safety mhm right they don’t know is Isaiah Simmons a safety is he a slot corner is he a deep safety is he a linebacker should be playing basketball

I don’t so I just the fact that we have seen two staffs now three staffs now not know how to use Isaiah Simmons is what worries me uh comparatively but if you want to take a shot it’s never a bad idea to bet on athleticism in a sport

Where that is often a differentiator of like the upper Upper Crust of the NFL is often the freakiest athletes there’s got to be that GM and that organization out there that says I can fix Isaiah Simmons I can make Isaiah Simmons 43940 speed work for our team um whether that

Translates to IDP points or not I’m I’m not really sure um I wanted to pull up Devon White’s 2023 PFF numers so pass rush pass rush grade of 64 tackling grade of 76 but 30 grade in run defense and a 40 overall defensive grade um that’s pretty poo poo and they’re all

Red I mean 2019 all of these are his overall defensive grade 51 43 36 45 46 this is Deon white yes yeah he’s just not that good yeah and I worry that with how he’s handled this year like what is he gonna get so I’m looking at Brad spielberger’s Pro projection for Willie

Gay one year $3.75 million so like a David Long one year Pro it deal let’s see what he has white projected for I bet you it’s not a lot one year 7 million so prove it d as well again just getting more money because he’s put a little more on tape

Than Willie gay he have Simmons let’s look at Simmons uh let’s see here Simmons hard to believe that Simmons is second contract he’s probably going to make less than he did on his rookie deal he doesn’t even have him in there wow yeah so I don’t know what about did you

Say David long for Willie gay yeah you think that’s about same of maybe Isaiah Simmons um I could see I think it’ll be a similar contract I think if a team wants to take take a chance on an Isaiah Simmons it’ll be one year’s two to three million put them

Somewhere where’s Devon white going boy that is a great question um you have Landing spots for any of these guys I haven’t really thought through it yet but there are like linebacker needy teams right like the the Eagles come to mind right the Cowboys come to mind um I

Mean Pittsburgh Washington Oakland or Las Vegas I Rams the Rams I could see I could see Las Vegas right uh because you got big Bob Spain there Divine Diablo um yeah I think it’ll be who who are the dumb teams right who are the teams because I don’t I don’t see like smart

Organizations like I can’t see the Eagles bringing in Devon white yeah look what Chicago did last year yeah uh look what Atlanta brought in you know paid a lot of money uh Isaiah Simmons please come to the Rams I would love that there you go that would be you would have to

Get an Isaiah Simmons Jersey if that happen so let’s wrap up here with some more Edge rushers and uh this is an intriguing Trio not as juicy as the other one but some fun names here to toss around Buy sell hold Bryce Huff Marcus Davenport and Jonathan grenard

Bab I’ll let you kick us off because I know you’re a big grenard fan yeah I am so Bryce Huff really was on the up and up there towards the end of the season 28 tackles 10 sacks on the season seon 9.6 points per game he played 42% of the

Snaps in 2023 which had to have been pretty influential towards later on the season is when he started getting a whole lot more playing time um so Bryce Huff let’s just hold him um if you’ve got a dumb Dum who doesn’t know what they have then maybe it’s

Worth maybe it’s worth the buy I just I see Bryce Huff much like I see someone who has a kijah cany you don’t just Happ Bry think I think there’s going to be some people that are dumb Dums there’s going to be two out of 10 maybe but I

Think like eight of those 10 people that are rostering Bryce Huff right now they probably know what they have you think so yeah I mean Maybe not maybe not maybe I’m wrong it it just it’s it’s a good litmus test of who knows ball if they’re

Holding to Bryce Huff yeah I will say he is the 18th ranked free agent by PFF and Brad thinks he is getting three years 50 million 16.67 per year with 35 million guaranteed hey I mean I love it big time Buy I’ve said all along I think he’s

This year’s uchin Neu so if you can get him now I’m not gonna go pay a second for him I sort of like the Brian Burns I’ll go pay a couple thirds for Bryce Huff yeah sure why would you not um so yeah he is my buy as well um marus

Davenport is my sale yeah me too just uninterested I’m not interested 8.1 points per game um I know he was banged up most of the Season Bry off is 25 years old he’s he’s smacking his prime dude I mean this is the next big thing and I think most of fantasy football

Kind of uh players in the community and IDP managers are getting a hip to Bryce off but see if you can catch that tail end of the wave that hasn’t caught on yet that’s a good call to the fact that this guy is about to blow up so then

We’re going to SW uh flop here I’m going to buy Jonathan gernard you’re gonna hold him I’m just gonna hold him yep I think he’s an ascending player um I heard on the underdog football show and go check that out folks if you haven’t yet uh Josh and Hayden talk through

These rankings the top 10 at every position including defense and they mentioned that Jonathan grenard I think it was a metric that looked at maybe pressures QB hits and sacks or maybe tfl’s QB hits and sacks it was some cumulative measure and Jonathan grenard this season had more than his past

Seasons combined so that’s the Deo Ryan’s effect I don’t think with the amount of money that Houston has they’re letting this guy get out the door yeah um I think that Jonathan grard is in sending player and I more than happy to hold him I think that that’s the reason

He’s a hold or a bu just because I think that like you’re saying he stays there in Houston of all these guys he was I think the better option I mean 15.6 points per game he was clearly the better player for IDP than Will Anderson this season but in Dynasty everyone’s

Going to be hornier for Will Anderson and not going to want to give you the same kind of price for Jonathan gernard although I think they should and Bryce Huff is not really needed for the Jets they have a lot of young you know Johnson they have McDonald Nolan Smith

Also coming up um so that’s Philadelphia uh that’s right who did you say Will McDonald that’s right got Will McDonald and Jermaine Johnson I think will be the two guys there um uh Michael Clemens they’ll have Clemens I think they’ll cut Carl awson loose okay I think they’ll I

Think they’ll end up cutting him and then yeah they’ll let Bryce Huff walk as well still a fun defensive line but um yeah Bryce Huff’s probably going to get a bag and then Jonathan grenard maybe stays at home I don’t know who will bring in Marcus Davenport I’m neither of

Us are interested so I don’t really care where it goes yeah it’s not he’s just one of those guys I’m just tired of it you know we’ve seen it we keep this is the Year this is the team and it’s just not going to happen I agree and I watch

It’ll happen it’ll be him and Joey Bosa and Adam will have both get better soon Addy we miss you baby so hopefully yall enjoyed this episode uh coming up after the break we are going to have Johnny the Greek with Scott Bogman doing Conference Championship IDP bets if

You’re watching on YouTube the link will be in the description for that video but babo iell hold always a fun exercise if you’re watching this on YouTube uh drop your picks in the comments who would you like to buy sell or hold of any of these

Groupings um and this was fun we’ll talk about rookies next week I know you and Addy are digging in but uh before we get into the rookie talk this felt like a nice little kind of dip of our toe into the free agent Waters I’m buying me I’m

Selling Adam I’m holding you thank you let’s hold each other as we wrap up this episode but y’all enjoy the football this weekend we’ve got two awesome games coming up Chiefs Ravens and 49ers Lions so savor it folks we’ve only got three games left I’m not counting the Pro Bowl and you shouldn’t

Either uh so enjoy it we will be back like we said next week talking about a rookie primer and Jeff will be back as well talking about IDP Madness draft strategies who wins this weekend I think Ravens and lions yep let’s go that’s what I’m hoping for don’t want another

Chiefs 49ers rematch I’m with you let’s go that’s enough Taylor let’s go with Ravens Lions I think that’d be so much fun yeah lot of fun so enjoy it folks we’ll be back next week but until then y’all take care and we’ll see you Soon