Should the Rockets make a panic trade? w/ Forrest Walker

Salman Ali (@SalmanAliNBA) and Forrest Walker (@DUNOTS) discuss:

-Why have the Rockets struggled so much since December?
-Is Houston regressing to the mean as a team?
-If they miss the play-in tournament, is this season a failure?
-What is a reasonable goal for the remainder of the season?
-Should the Rockets make a trade for the sole purpose of making the play-in tournament?
-What kinds of trades should they pursue?
-Are any of the core 6 players up for grabs?
-What return should Houston want in a Jalen Green trade?
-Should Jalen Green be starting anymore?
-What are some more reasonable deals the Rockets could make at the deadline?

All that and more.

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What’s up guys we podcast my name is s mon at s NB on Twitter here joined by Forest Walker do nots on Twitter how you doing Forest hey hey we’re doing a daytime recorder how about that yeah daytime recording I still have to put this damn light on because this room is

Dark as hell but uh I can see you Forest your room is very well well lit um your hair looks luxurious thank you hey daylight does wonders yeah yeah so we are ready to go uh so it’s January 20th uh which means January 15th has passed which means it’s

Only appropriate that we do a trade deadline preview today uh I had a written up version of this uh discussion kind of on r.com if you guys want to want to go check that out but uh before we get into the deadline uh let me ask

You this for us does it matter to you that the Rockets have kind of been sliding as a team since like Christmas uh it matters to me I don’t know if it matters to everyone else and I want to after we this I want to ask

Kind of a followup question of that it’s a good question um it is a little worrying because you know they they they start out the gates pretty hot well all right immedi they stumbled immediately out of the gates they lost three games in a row but then they look good after

That uh and they’ve been looking for a while and people a lot of people were waiting for the other shoe to drop and they’re like well I guess it’s not going to because it’s been like you know 30 games and the shoe hasn’t dropped the shoe is dropping now it seems like and

Definitely part of that is due to missing tar een for quite a while and missing uh Dylan Burks until pretty recently uh and then Dylan Brooks com back and not looking like the same guy as he was before largely because he’s not hitting all of his threes like he

Was before right uh and the concern to me is like all right if this is just tari being missing and them playing against good teams which are both happening like they’re playing against teams like the Sixers and the Celtics and stuff who are they’re going to beat

You they’re good uh but to some degree is this them regressing to the mean like their defense looked really good when nobody was hitting shots against them but then three-pointers started to fall there was a there was a run of five game uh which I think ended with the not this

Last game but like a couple games before that where oppon opposing teams over five games shot 44 and a half% from three against them which like all right that’s not going to H happen every game you know even like leaving guys totally open you’re not going to give up 44 and

A half% from three every game but they had really good luck from opposing three-pointers to the early part of the season so which one is more close to their expected value is it the early part of the Season where they looked really good defens Ely or is it this

Part of the Season where they look really bad defensively uh so I think it’s important to try to measure that to see like when when the going gets tough when the chips are down how good actually are they how good actually is their defense like once

They have to start going up against like real teams and also in the middle of the season the sloggy time when the early season like Good Vibes and excitement is starting to wear off and now it’s just your day job uh yeah so I’m a little concerned uh I don’t like watching it

Cuz it’s less fun they’re having less fun I’m having less fun but uh I don’t know I think these are I I think there are some concerns and I think em Oda has to start earning his money now no I think um it is fair to question

How real that first those first 30 games I think those those first 25 30 games were right I think it’s fair to question that especially since we were questioning that in the moment right so it’s not like these are unfounded concerned we were talking about the shooting luck they were having we were

Talking about kind of the shooting luck they were having offensively going their way uh frankly um you know how real was you know Dylan Brooks hitting a million threes how real was um Jon T hitting a million threes right like there there is a lot of stuff going their way um I

Guess the question I have is like so what was the expectation uh for them pre-season and what have they have they achieved that have they you know still surpassed that like what was their goal what was an appropriate goal going for them going into the season cuz I had

Them pegged as like a 35 win team right and I go on ESPN’s VPI uh which is like their projection model and they have it pegged at 37 to 45 uh that’s where they P that’s where they have the Rockets Peg to finish not the best projection model

Uh 538 used to have a better one but 538 is gone now uh so we have to go with ESPN’s BPI but um they still project the Rockets to you know win about 37 to 45 games that’s still above where I had them yeah right um what about you did

Did you think what was your goal and expectation for them this season all right so as far as expectation goes we can look at it from a few different angles we can look at what you and I wanted from them uh which you’re talking about we can look at what the team

Wanted from themselves and we can look at what the public expected from them right uh the easiest one to figure out is what the public expect you can at the over under lines from Vegas and that pretty much the story of what people in general think is they’re going to do

That was what 31 A2 20 29 I think it vared between 29 and 31 I think it ended up at 31 and a half um so they’re they’re on Pace to win 32 games easily but you know I I it would be very surprising if they hit that under they

Still could but it’d be really bad like things would have to get really bad for over like literally half the season them to only win what like 11 more games or whatever o and all of them are home games probably yeah pres because they never win Road games anymore no no that

They had a little bit where they could win Road games a little bit where they could win Eastern Conference games it’s over uh the other thing is the the the one that’s hardest to figure out is what does the team want from themselves because they can say stuff about it but

You don’t really know you know like unless you are like one of the fertitas or like Oka you don’t really know what the real expectations are and it’s going to disagree inside the team so I don’t know the team probably I would guess that overall they

Want to make the play in at a bare minimum like that’s I think I’d have to assume that’s like especially with their hot start they’ve got to feel like they have to make the plan or it’s been a disappointment for them at this point uh which I more or less agree with my

Expectation going into the season was I didn’t have any idea what what they were going to be I thought they were I didn’t think they’re going to make this as big of a loop as they did previously but then they looked a lot better than this so it’s been kind of a

Kind of a roller coaster ride where in this moment like two months ago it would have been like yeah as long as they like win 30 games I’m honestly pretty happy now if they win 30 games I’m pretty disappointed so you know what a difference go months make um I think

They have enough talent that they should be able to put this together a little bit more but I do think they are facing a problem that actually the league is pretty even there’s a large amount of teams who are like all kind of okay right and that’s the difficulty they’re facing is that

There’s only a few teams that are like bad bad there’s like four in the East and like three in the west that are just like these are teams you should expect to be uh anytime you play them unless you’re one of them and so that means that most of the

Games they play are pretty challenging uh so I’m not super upset about most of these games it’s just the ones that they look particularly bad like weirdly the game against the against the Timberwolves was pretty bad because they did look like they kind of given up in

That game and losing the Timberwolves is no shame at all Timberwolves are excellent this season that is a title Contender team you should not expect to beat them if you’re the Rockets but you should expect to like not lose that badly uh or and the theme against the

Pistons was worrying I mean given the Pistons had to have a lot of things go right for them to lose a game by two points against like a 500ish team but those things did go right for them and that’s a problem so I I do feel like the

Rockets are in a slump right now uh I don’t know whether it’s because they’re getting exposed to who they really are I don’t know if it’s because they’re having bad luck on opposing shooting I don’t know if it’s because they just are like in bad vibes and just don’t have

The juice right now I think we need to see what happens after they like get a win or two under their belts which I mean hopefully will happen pretty soon right you got to expect the win at some point point but they’ve gone from like a

Few games over 500 to a couple games under 500 in a fairly short span of time and that’s there was a minute where they looked like they had a real chance to take the division and now that’s obviously not going to happen like they were a couple games behind the teams

Leading their division like not that long ago and now they’re that’s over yeah uh couple things uh so they are underperforming uh their point differential which means they’ve had some bad clutch luck right um which you know for a young team actually you do kind of expect some bad clutch luck

Right yeah it’s not that surprising right uh and Fred Van vet was kind of carrying the load there for a minute but now it seems like they’re playing like a young team in close games right um but I will say this even if I agree with you that I had

Adjusted my expectation to where play in tournament equal SU success right that’s that’s kind of where I was at too I don’t think they should do anything rash if they miss the play in tournament because the western conference is kind of correcting itself in like a pretty

Drastic way like the teams that were bad in the beginning of the season are really making a push like the clippers for example are like fourth in the western conference after they were like 12th or whatever right uh the Pelicans are a serious team again the Mavericks

Have climbed the standings again um the Jazz after they had a surprising year last year it’s like oh seem if they’re going back to normal no no no no this is their normal this is their normal they’re a good team right they’re like they’re like a competitive team right uh

So all the teams that like were expected to be better than them but that they had surprisingly surpassed are going back to where they should be in the conference now I guess you know what what do you do now if you’re Houston well what you can

Do now is you just stde and compete the best you can and try to get that playing tournament I worry that they try they do something rash if they don’t get there because again I think generally the organization they’ve hit they’ve had misses right like the front office has

Had misses don’t get me wrong they’ve made mistakes My worry is that if if we deem this a failure that the front office will overreact in the off season and heads roll and I don’t think this is a heads roll roll kind of season right like I

Don’t think if they miss the play in tournament Rafel Stone should lose his job yeah I think anything 35 wins and up is not a problem for them actually right right no but but no you and I agree with that right like we’re being rational sometimes ownership isn’t always so

Rational right especially once they’ve gotten a taste of the good life right the beginning of this season all right this a question I wanted to ask you which is this is a great time to do it do you think all right two-part question do you think the Rockets should do

Something to try to make the playoffs like do you think it’s worth trying to make the playoffs this season at the trade deadline and do you think they will like should and will both I think they should do something to to improve their team because they have this oot expiring salary just sitting

There and if if they don’t do anything it’s just going to go away so I think it actually might be prudent for them to make a win now move because of finances right because they’re they they’ve been for months preparing to be a mid-level exception team this summer and if that

If they if that contract fires on them they’re not going to be that so I think they I think there’s a way where they can make a win out team a win out trade that actually serves their long-term objectives and the good news for them is well so first off we should establish

That what everyone’s talking about makes sense which is landale is nothing I’m sorry sorry jock but you’re not working out Victor adipo is nothing on purpose uh and then a lot of people have been like wishcasting J shant into that trade package which for reasons that are only

Becoming more sensible as time goes on honestly uh so you can you could put together a pretty good salary with those guys all right you could get back a pretty a pretty decent return like salary-wise and then the very good news for them currently is that the Brooklyn

Nets have been falling back to Earth kind of where it made sense them to be the whole time that Brooklyn pick is getting sweeter and sweeter by the minute uh and hopefully that continues on for Houston because the better that Brooklyn pick is the better a trade

Package they can put together and the better of a player they can get in return without having to give up like some of their high level with some of their like recent draft pick prospects my other question for you is okay go ahead yeah what would it take

For you to be willing to put one of those big six into a trade package this summer or this wi or other this leads into my first my next question my first trade deadline question let’s talk about the trade deadline like we’ve talked about this now okay are you at the point

Where you’re exploring Jaylen green trades if you’re Houston because we’ve been talking about this now right and now I feel like we’re we’re safely at the point where there’s like two players on the roster that probably deserve a starting spot over him right in t een and cam Whitmore

Right uh but you have to balance that Houston like without being rash without making a trade just to make a trade so are you at the point where you’re having talks and if you’re having talks how serious are those talks all right I wouldn’t say he’s on

The Block like I don’t think I’m advertising him but if people call about him I’m listening like I want to know what his trade value is right now because for a good enough offer I’d do it I don’t think that offers on the table it’s a thing like I don’t think

Anything anything is out there that’s going to be worth it for them like I think if he is going to get moved it’ll be this this off season or later can I ask you then like so what is something that is worth it for you I think uh a not just

A not just a starter quality like two guard but like a sharpshooter who has real promise and potentially could be an All-Star so we’re talking like a Bridges type or something like that better I’m even a step higher than that I’m like Donovan Mitchell right like if if it’s

Just Bridges like that’s boring I feel like I can get Bridges without putting in green right like I feel like with the amount of net capital that they have they have enough carrot to get Bridges away if they really wanted to get Bridges right because the Nets get that

Incentive to tank get their control back and then they get that sweet lottery pick right and then next year’s lottery pick or whatever right like there there are ways to get Bridges if you want Bridges but if you want to throw in green that’s where I’m like okay then

You’re not getting the lottery pick right like you know like you you don’t get both right I think green is firmly like on the level of that lottery pick in terms of value yeah and I think I think you’re right and I do think that right now the

Problem is that he’s playing real bad right now right you’d actually kind of want him to play better for a while and then raise his value because right now if you’re Houston you’re like well he’s at the lowest value he’s got like he’s probably a little better lately right if

He keeps it up this might actually ironically make him more likely to get traded because it raises value to other players because or other teams CU yeah when he’s at his bottom of his like look when he looks terrible is not when you want to trade him because you’re not

Going to get good value for him you want people you want people to what you want on that kind of trade is for you to have seen this guy for years and to go okay I know this guy isn’t going to meet my expect we figured that out with our internal

Metrics but other people don’t have those metrics and they think he might work out still that’s the kind of like that’s the dynamic you want to trade this kind of player you don’t want it to be that everyone thinks he is not going to meet his expectations because then

You’re just going to get you know you’re not going to be able to train for that much um I don’t know for that reason I do think it’s very unlikely get sted like you said someone AB Donovan Mitchell’s caliber would have to be like that like an All-Star caliber or at

Least like nearly Allstar level player has to be out there I think for this move to make sense if it’s anything less than that like you might as well just let him play out the rest of the season at the minimum and see if he can you

Know get back into shape and I I don’t for for what it’s worth I don’t even think they would entertain anything less than Allstar right like I I think they’re at they’re at that point like where they’re they’re not they’re not being rash about this right but I do

Think as you said earlier they’re picking up the phone right I do think yeah I I I do think that yeah for sure because how can you not right he hasn’t done anything to be Untouchable there’s only one guy in this roster that has done something to be untouchable right

Um and I here here’s where I’m at like you have a few you have a few different goals here at the trade deadline right I think you have to move the oo that’s a hot potato right you you have to you have to get something back that is

Long-term salary I think another another thing is like you want to kind of explore that like moving jock thel’s dead salary right like I I think i’ I’d move his dead salary because that’s just wasted you know every day you wait you don’t do that it’s just you know dead

Money I think Houston might be might have the stomach to hold on to it hold on to him but like if you’re already trading Old Depot you might as well combine the salary and get someone meaty right yeah get a more expensive player back in return right and then you got

The J Shante thing yeah I don’t know I mean I I guess chck lel’s presumably a negative asset right now right like I’m trying to think through like is he a negative or positive asset or like Neal I I think I think it’s like a neutral asset yeah because because you can kind

Of clear your your books you know yeah I mean he definitely doesn’t add anything so you know adding him on there is basically just like trying to make salaries match yeah if he was a good player he’d be a positive asset because he’s a bad player he’s a neutral asset

Right because that contract is just so nothing right it’s just so for for for the years going forward for now it’s not nothing you got to eat that but for the years going forward it’s nothing uh I think that ol is like a conditional positive asset depending on what kind of

Trade you’re doing because he’s you know he’s not playing he’s not really doing anything but he’s expiring this year so if a team wants to make get some cap space this summer if they want to move long-term money and make some room that needs a positive asset a little bit

But I mean the same right like they’re like they’re like the same I I kind of think they’re like the same so obviously the deal with a trade would be that you’re trying to uh you’re trying to leverage your draft Assets in order to pick up

Someone uh and you know they have pretty good draft assets right now my question to you would be what is the most valuable asset or player that you would include in a trade this trade deadline assuming that you’re getting back like a reasonable return not like you know a

Star unexpected is coming to you okay um that that that lottery pick the 2024 Brooklyn yeah but it’d have to again it have to be a starter right I’d have to get a starter back um but yeah I’m I’m willing to entertain that lottery pick especially because you have the salaries

To go get a real starter like if if you’re telling me I can go get Jeremy Grant for example right like I I like Jeremy Grant a lot like I I I like the idea of him on this on this team um and he would uh achieve like all three of

Your objectives he’d make you better he would um you know be a long-term salary on the books uh that you could possibly trade at some point and you can also kind of you have an excuse to bench Jaylen to be honest right you get a starter back you can bench Jaylen and be

Like hey listen this guy’s just’s guy a veteran that’s better than you he’s a veteran that’s it’s not it’s not no longer t or Whitmore like a 20 or 21y old this is a veteran that is better than you sit on the bench Jaylen right yeah that’s true that the the Optics are

A big deal for that and I think we talked about it before but it can’t be overstated enough how much the jayen green situation is really being run by the Optics of it that he you have to have a sufficient reason to bench him or else you just really can’t do it this

Season yeah next season different story but this season no you have to do something like that you have to get like a proven veteran who it’s not shameful for him to be sat in front of and frankly like I’m at the point where like

Um I’m he he has to have like a a good next couple of games like a really good next couple of games for me to continue starting him uh just because the that again like we talked about this like that noise coming from behind is loud and it’s it’s just it becomes damaging

When you’re not giving other guys reps that are just more deserving right I I’m writing an article right now on Jaylen and this is kind of sidetracked we’ll get back to the trade deadline really quick I know you got a hard out at 345 uh so I’m writing an article right now

On Jaylen where I think his main competition right now is not cam Whitmore I think his main competition right now is amend Thompson for the starting point guard spot on this team long term I don’t think I don’t think this player archetype can work as a

Shooting guard I just don’t as a wing I I just don’t I think you have to be better defensively I think you have to be a more efficient scorer if you’re not better defensively I think this this this kind of player if you’re going to

Be this you have to be a ball handler right you you have to if you have to be a lead ball handler if you’re not going to be like crazy efficient or crazy good defense defensively like I just think that’s where I’m at with Jaylen like

You’re you if I were if I were the organization I’d put him at backup point guard within the next couple games if the trends continue the way they are right so that’s kind of my thinking going into the trade deadline uh Jaylen wise yeah well and that’s F forward thinking too

Because if amen can be your point guard going forward like you you need to have the plan for who’s next after Fred venley Fred Vleet is not forever he’s not on the same timeline as these other guys he is he is a transitional figure

So yeah if you can if you can get am man’s reps get him learning from Fred while he’s out there like create your successor now and amen’s looking pretty good like he’s looking real good for a rookie amen and Cam being as good as they are has been real monkey in in

Jaylen Green’s plans whatever they might be so you’re not wrong I mean that is yeah he has three guys breathing down his neck all who look like have very good reasons to be the starter in his position and he’s really just not he he’s been a little better lately but

He’s not showing enough right now I mean maybe he need maybe he needs more time maybe he does need more time to like Let The Game come to him but I I don’t think they have the Rockets if they were bad this season it’d be different but they’re not they’re not bad enough

Except for him no I feel you so have you thought of some some guys that you would consider trading for at the deadline huh um see the thing is I don’t know who’s going to be available at the deadline so I don’t know who I want so can I throw

Some names out there the two names that I like the most that Houston shown interest in one of these guys already and this seems fairly realistic it’s like a pragmatic kind of move I would I would keep my eye on John Collins and Malcolm Brogden I feel like those are

Guys that are pragmatic moves uh they solve a lot of your issues right I I think backup center is like kind of a blah concern I don’t think it’s really that big big of concern when I watch the Rockets I know a lot of people are panicking about this I don’t think the

Rockets are are like starving for a backup center they have a lot of bigs right they can make nice they can make do I think they’re fine and Collins can play back up center right and he provides you shooting right and like it’s like a two in one kind of scenario

With Brogden I kind of he solves kind of more of the needs that I see for this team which is like I think they need another guard another combo guard another playmaker another guy who can defend Off the Bench another guy who can shoot for You Off the Bench uh just

Another ball handler who can shoot like that’s that to me is is a bigger concern than a big um no the shooting is atrocious currently they badly need as much shooting as they can get they don’t take enough threes they don’t hit enough threes they would they would have they’d

Be much farther ahead in the standings right now if they had like a normal amount of shooting for an NBA team in 2024 right yeah and like you know the these guys help you and you you could also start brog in in a pinch right you

Could you could you could take that you could take it one step further and be like hey brogen’s going to take her spot right Which is less sellable than like jry Grant but it’s still sellable I think right he’s still been around yeah and he’s still better than him right like

Critically yeah yeah uh other guys I would look at um you know obviously Harrison Barnes came up as a name recently as an actual name that the Rockets are fishing around for Mark Stein reported this about this on his newsletter uh you know the the the thing

With with this is like you kind of have to be a third team I don’t see a one for one trade coming up I I think this is a kind of player you trade if you help facilitating the king is getting somebody and if if that’s the case I’m

More than willing to go up front I’ve explored the idea of Houston coming in as a third team for like the Lakers trying to get like Deonte Murray or uh the um the Kings trying to get a big name fish of their own like just coming

In as like the fac facilitator right if you can get like Austin Reeves from the Lakers or if you can get Harrison Barnes from the Kings if you just help Grease the wheels in a direction a certain direction I think that’s a a smart way

Of doing this too you know well you can get good value on your return that way too MH so that’s that’s not bad I mean the Rockets right now are still in a position where they want to like increase their asset stock as it were

Like they they do need to be ready for when a big trade becomes available which it’s easy to think like oh we found the guys these are going to be the guys probably not probably they’re going to need to have like a blockbuster trade between now and potential contention to

Get there so yeah something where you’re instead of like instead of spending assets to be better right now if you can pick up a somewhat usable guy like you said like an Austin Reeves or something and be that facilitator team you can probably you’ll pay a lot less because

You’re doing a service for them outside of the actual trade itself so you can get better value you can like stock up your Orest a bit yeah yeah for sure uh you know there’s also guys that I think aren’t being talked about enough like KH sexon like I think he could possibly be

Had from the Jazz um and I think he’s an upgrade over uh frankly the minutes you’re getting from Aon holiday and amen Thompson to be frank like a man amen you know he has shown flashes I think I still think someone like seon would be

Better um I like the idea of Houston uh trying to trade for like a DeAndre hunter from the hawk if the Hawks are going full Cell mode like I’m going to I’d like to go sneak that in right but I’m not sure how willing the Hawks are

To go trade for trade deontre Hunter like these are the names that I would look for I would look for starter or friend starter type players that can shoot the ball like that’s the that’s the prerequisite you have to be able to shoot the ball and you have to be able

To start in a pinch is Aaron holiday the most enjoyable and likable player that they should probably move uh yeah maybe I mean I I I’m I’m not a big Aaron holiday fan to be honest like I think he’s fun but he likes to score the ball definitely good yeah I

Mean he was shooting really hot earlier and that was cool but now he’s like normal and it’s not so cool now he’s like waving off like Alper and shenon it’s like all right man this is this was fun earlier now it’s like you got to hit

All of them if you’re going to do that yeah yeah um yeah so these are the kind of names that I would explore the deadline uh I think Houston uh at the deadline should look for a way to you know obviously combine all these salaries L Old Depot uh and um excuse me

Jan Tate I think J holiday or somethingone yeah and trading Tate allows you to move guys up in the rotation too right when guys get healthy right like I think cam Whitmore you don’t want you don’t want to be in a position where he’s going to be back in

The G League I think he’s just too good for that right I think you if you trade Tate I think he’s a positive asset I think team you can get something real or you can make the price of something cheaper right if you throw in t um and

Uh I think he I think he would um help a lot of teams on contenders right so like he’s he’s he’s a he’s a plus player he’s just not the plus player that they want for going forward right yeah it’s it’s just he’s at a position that’s just hard

To justify U giving minutes to right now but yeah that’s kind of what I’ve been thinking about for the trade deadline I know you got a heart out uh so I will let you go Forest I do appreciate you doing this for me oh it’s been a delight

I I love I love coming on I love talking Rockets uh especially this year when they are not just kind of a lost cause with nothing to say about so there are discussions have I’m happy to have them with you yeah for sure uh subscribe to the podcast on iTunes Google play

Spotify Stitcher YouTube uh subscribe to us on YouTube give us a thumbs up it helps helps other people find the show uh look at that thumbs up yeah uh see even uh squadcast knows what’s going on uh and make sure to uh give us a written review on iTunes because it helps other

People find the show all right guys have a good night