Wednesday 24th January 2024 – FREE Horse racing tips – Fairyhouse, Lingfield & Kempton

Today’s staking plan is £9 across 1 bet.
There are 5 selections in total, across 5 races

Results from the previous videos:
23rd of January 2024:
Bet: £9.50
Return: £14.52
Overall Profit: £5.02

20th of January 2024:
Bet: £13.50
Return: £2.30
Overall Loss: £11.20

(Next scheduled channel meet up, will be on the 26th January 2024 at Dundalk racecourse).

Total Horse Racing Statistics for 2024 up until the 23rd January:
Bet – £273
Return – £273.43
Overall Profit – £0.43

Total Horse Racing Statistics, since the channel started:
January 9th 2022 – December 31st 2023
Bet – £11,123.20
Return – £14,175.32
Overall Profit – £3,051.72 (+27.44%)

Contact details:
W: https://flatcapcallum.com/
E: info@flatcapcallum.com

Through my channel, I offer free horse racing tips (and occasionally for other sports) primarily focusing on looking for the value in the betting market. This means finding horses that I believe the bookmakers have overlooked and overpriced.

Horse racing tips are provided on 4 regular days a week:
(Wednesday, Thursday, Friday & Saturday)
On the other 3 days of the week, short videos will be uploaded, by exception.
I occasionally will leave selections on non-video days, in the comments of the previous video.

I’m not guaranteeing daily winners; in fact I expect to lose more days than I win! This is all about gaining more on the winning days to outweigh the losses to make profit in the long term.

I aim to run a transparent channel where statistics will be regularly shared, nothing will be over promised and I encourage you to interact through the comments.

Usually, the majority of bets are advised to be placed through Sky bet, as they are the bookmaker usually offering the most each-way places for Horse racing bets, which best suit the style of bets I place
The expected ‘average’ days stake for the channel is £20, but it will vary between £2-£40, depending on the volume and quality of the racing.

Update 06/09/23 – All channel stats are now recorded based on at least 3 major bookies offering the price at the time of video upload and at least 3 major bookies paying the place terms at the time of the race.
(Previously everything was recorded through a real Skybet account, this made channel profits hard to achieve for anyone using alternative bookies, the update hopefully ensures most can match the channel results and many can exceed them)

Horse racing statistics since the channel launched (10th January 2022)

2023:
Jan: -£83.71 (-22.62%)
Feb: -£40.33 (-9.84%)
Mar: -£117.15 (-28.57%)
April: +£171.34 (+38.03%)
May: +£412.95 (+99.51%)
June: +£21.13 (+3.87%)
July: -£123.11 (-22.8%)
Aug: +£160.78 (+35.34%)
Sep: -£162.40 (-40.6%)
Oct: -£29.01 (-9.56%)
Nov: +£591.56 (+175.54%)
Dec: +36.14 (+9.85%)

2022:
Jan: +£40.79 (+10.2%)
Feb: +£182.98 (+32.68%)
Mar: +£152.85 (+28.31%)
Apr: +£87.58 (+17.5%)
May: -£36.88 (-8.68%)
Jun: -£25.36 (-4.41%)
Jul: +£620.71 (+96.99%)
Aug: +£8.97 (+1.63%)
Sep: +£460.46 (+106.15%)
Oct: +£341.21 (+66.14%)
Nov: -£109.86 (-27.44%)
Dec: +£496.16 (+110.5%)

For Cheltenham festival & Royal Ascot 2022, I did a separate series of videos called the the £200 series, this was based on a medium risk staking plan, the figures are not included in any of the monthly figures or overall P&L figures.

Cheltenham Festival 2022
Bet: £200
Return: £323.30
Profit: £123.30 (+61.65%)

Royal Ascot 2022
Bet: £200
Return: £233.04
Profit: £33.04 (+16.52%)

——————————————
Profit & Loss for horse racing selections for each day of the week Jan 2022 – Dec 2023:

Friday +£1147.29
Wednesday +£695.43
Saturday +£678.89
Thursday +£510.39
Tuesday +£103.44
Sunday -£6.16
Monday -£75.05

Hello and welcome these are horse racing selections for Wednesday the 24th of January I am flat cap Callum and I hope you are all very very well all right proper start to the week bonus video earlier proper start now it is channel Meetup week for those uh Irish followers

Or or people like Zach who have booked a flight and coming over too so um yeah appreciate any effort anyone makes whether that’s they live in Dundalk or uh or or they live much further a field than are flying over just just for the event um so yeah declarations first

Stage are out for Dundalk it doesn’t look like the best Friday at Dundalk um first race currently 4:30 second last last race 7:30 on paper there might only be three of the kind of 14 run handicaps but they’ve got a split one out we’ll see um so it’s it’s more about the the

Crack really then it is about necessarily trying to win specifically at Dundalk and when I did the last Channel meet up it was horrendous that is literally the worst day ever had at Kempton so um yeah try not to repeat that again but it’s done

Do it’s hero or zero track you either do really well or you do terribly you don’t really do much in between um so yeah Channel me up week uh so Friday done do be there or don’t be there it’s a free choice um so I shall be there uh so just

This week I’m on tonight I’m on Wednesday night and then I’ll be doing a Friday morning broadcast from Dublin and then it will probably be a Saturday morning broadcast from Dublin that is the plan orbe it D Friday night looking at the racing for Saturday yeah you can see where that

Might be a conflict of interest so that’s the current plan uh no nothing on Sunday definitely not on Sunday um that is the plan so as far as today’s vid goes we’ve got to review Saturday comment horse Monday Tuesday bonus feed golf from the weekend and that I think that’s it then

Got to give you Wednesday’s bet one bet it is I’ve done a Canadian um three double figures two short ones in there i’ I had six on the short list six races um and a couple of them had multiple horses in and I was like yeah I’m I’m

Just going to go with the five so I took out the real short one um and then left left in five and then there’s a couple of races there’s one other horse name in one of the races I am going to put out there for specific bookies um but I’ve I’ve left the

Biggest price I could have put in I was having some debate I’m happy with where I got to but yeah £9 is all we got one Canadian for Wednesday and then I’ll mentioned the golf tip tips for this weekend there’ll be in the comments of this video five golfers this week across

The two tournaments um think we want we started with two then we did five last week I think we had seven so we back down to five for this week there was quite a lot on the short list but some of them got nibbled in and there was a

Couple it’s always the way at the moment I I I’ll write them out and then uh before I get to this point of the week then some of the uh the high-profile golf tipsters have them in their selection plan and you just lose the point Valu there’s no point put in there

Um so yeah I mean I think I did that what was that two weeks ago was it Nick Taylor um he was the only one that placed but lost point value of 70s by the time I I put it up but it was 90s earlier in the week anyway that’s that

And we’ll do a rundown of stats and stuff um okay so review um so the review of last week uh in general there’s different ways you you can talk about it right so if I if I wanted to I could talk about last week and say what a brilliant winner Stallone

Was 6 to one great winner we had last week we had Stallone at 6 to one that was our great winner of last week and that would be uh true slightly disingenuous uh I could say um I could say what well uh it was it was a great

Earning week I could say that but that would just be a baref lie wouldn’t it that wouldn’t be true at all if I said that cuz we lost money you what if you lost money you can’t you can’t say it was an earning week can you um so uh

Yeah you wouldn’t you wouldn’t want to say that um and uh yeah I mean I could say I’m in in red hot form because I had a winner uh a winner on uh on Tuesday but that would be just Tuesday wouldn’t it that wouldn’t track back other day so

Depends on how you define red hot form anyway the reality was it was garbage last week was it absolute garbage um we finished the week on minus 6250 I think it was it’ll be in the description if I’ve got that wrong minus 6250 uh we only had two weeks in 2023

That were worse than that from a from a total loss point of view uh we had some bigger ones than that in 2022 but for 2023 if you compare that would if you if you go literally over the last 12 months that was the third worst week we’ve had

Pretty bad and what made it particularly bad is the strike rate was off um the all weather before Christmas was was doing his great guns and then not been so so good since and there was a lack of jumps last week and the jumps is what

Had given us some money before so we had a jumps bet uh Tuesday we’ll get to that in the review but I will flag to for Wednesday’s bet it’s one jumper four on the all weather I wasn’t keen on the jumps um for Wednesday so Saturday uh

What do we have Saturday the Saturday’s review I mean it won’t take long will it um no no uh that did place for was it three or four bookies so it counted for the channel and I think that one placed for sky so it didn’t count for the channel

But Sky user would have got a bit back that was that um and then the combo double we had uh we had Bailey’s Warrior place but nothing to go with it so it was a lost day for the channel I think it was uh 13 is it 1350 on 230 back L of

1120 I think that’s what it was so it ended the week I think yeah minus 6250 um we’ had nothing on Sunday we had Monday I put up two one was a very early non-runner um so that didn’t last very long that left with one which a bit of a

Risky one I did say that um and it wasn’t very good so that was no good on the one comment selection on Monday and then Tuesday we had four put in four jumpers um and what did we have the first one Brea um and I’ll get to the

Price movement but um that was third and then we had uh something was it something Fox something I think something it was one of the first one newb 235 newb it was um fifth which Sky paid no one else did so well done if you were using Sky then we

Had 310 my girl KY which was eighth of 16 and we needed top five Sky would have been delighted with sixth but five for everybody else and then the last horse uh I think I can’t remember Rousy Rousey something like that I think it was uh

That was a really nice winner of the bumper um so it was a profitable day so 950 on 14452 back I think it will depend on when you put the put the bets on because the prices did move about a little bit

Uh I say a little bit a lot a bit in in places so I just was going to give a little bit of a commentary on that um so BR her um and I was debating because I I thought last night uh I was going to do a bonus vid and

Then I had four I had well I had five and I thought four were likely to go in and one probably would go into a point where I wouldn’t do it if it was the morning so it might leave 4 in the morning and I thought one would

Drift But the one that was going to drift with my girl ktie I felt like it was a Drifter at 25s last night and I thought it would get up to a nicer price I’ve got four 40s I think by the time we did the channel 50s after the channel uh

Was uploaded I think for some quite a few bookies 66 possibly in places did matter because it didn’t didn’t make the frame um but I thought that would drift out and I was trying to catch it the right time for that to drift and the

Others not to go in so much but the others did go in a little bit so Rousy for instance was 25s uh night uh yeah night before 25s uh it was only 14s when they did the channel and it went off like something like Sixers and then uh BR har was was

Another one where ridiculous but 365 put that up at 33 to1 and I think it was still 33s when I did the video even though it was only 18s for the channel and then the price went quite quick um so anyway I was I was I thought my girl Katy was the right

Horse to wait to see if it was drift but the other one nibbled in it would have made a little bit of difference because you got you would have got a better price on Rousy 25s are the best price I said but from a channel perspective I

Think the well if I’d done the video the night before I think 18s would have been the best I could it would have been the fair price to claim any who um what happened with the prices on some of them so Brar this is how I would interpret it so it was put

Up 18s across the board 33s with 365 I don’t know what 365 were doing with that price it was it was ridiculous just just leaveing thems open and I do W wonder whether um what possibly happen in the market because what happens with that Brar horse it we backed it lots it

Starts at a much bigger price and we’ll get shorter now the last two times it’s run um on jumps it didn’t do very good and I was so therefore I thought it would come in a bit but I didn’t it should never have come in the way it

Came in so I think it went off something like 9 to2 I think um and it was third and it ran ran like a 9-2 shot the finishes third should do but it I I would it shouldn’t have been that price that what like I know this sounds

Ridiculous and some people don’t care and some people sort of get this stuff 9 two was was not to me the true price um that horse should have been about nines eights or nines um and yeah and it’s not the type of stable where money comes for

It but money does come for that horse but money only comes for that horse because it gets priced up wrong every time and why does it get priced up wrong every time because it’s a really exposed horse bookmakers protect themselves against horses that are unexposed so you can

Find a horse with lesser form at shorter price than something like that so one of the angles I work with horses like Brar and a horse like visibility everybody knows about it right the forms there loads of form and you can look through it but they run consistently and they

Run they don’t win very often I think M brous might even be a maiden but it but it runs consistently outside the last two I say that the last time at dunor when we backed it it faded a bit and the last two jumps races which I think it

Got really stuck in heavy heavy ground if you excuse those it runs really consistently over a variety of different distances on a variety of surfaces that horse will always start out overpriced because book makers protect themselves it will come in so I’m hoping for some

Of you this is this is a helpful kind of lesson musing if you like but an exposed horse like that will always start bigger come in a little bit I don’t think it was money that came from it I wonder whether there’s there’s stuff in the markets because 365 exposed himself so

Much at 33s if people put down a chunk of money quite quick on that at that kind of price they would then have to have offset their liability somewhere else and therefore it it makes a little bit of a run on the horse when other people are backing it and then people are

Looking and going well hang on this horse is getting shorter and shorter and shorter and more people Pile in and I think it drove the price artificially short and I know that’s how stupid because the horse was third and it was I think it was third favorite which you go

Will that make sense but in in a field size of that big with a horse that exposed that had run badly the last couple of times it shouldn’t have got to the price and it’s not a not a yard that would have punted on it to have one

Because it’s not a horse that’s one so from a from a pricing up point of view right when book makers price up they’ll look at it and go it’s exposed and they’ll look at it and they’ll say it hasn’t won and that means you get a much bigger price

Hopefully that makes sense but I don’t yeah it was too short um my girl K I knew it was going to drift because all the recents form it was was poor it was coming back to a discipline and a distance and ground although I the

Problem was I think the ground got a bit too soft at new softer than I thought it was going to be anyway um it it recent form was nothing and therefore The Bookies will price it up but General punters won’t be interested because they’ll look at recency form so

Recency bias is is really important when you’re trying to work a market because there’s always bias between a horse’s last run and you see it even with with kind of your regular run of the- Mill tipsters out there that put a horse up they’ll always talk about how the horse got on last

Time but that’s what everybody looks at right that’s that’s not being that’s not being clever being clever is looking at the last 20 times the horse ran and looking what’s the optimum conditions or situation for that horse or weight or whatever it might be or going through

Speed ratings if that’s your thing not my thing but that’s other people’s thing so you you go through those things so yeah you will find with my girl Katy it hadn’t run well for ages so most people are going to be put off what I like

About my girl Katy was it was back in a discipline and it actually ran in that same race all bit completely different conditions it was good to FM ground it ran in that race uh like 10 pound higher last year and second uh same jockey so I

Think the ground got a bit soft on it and it’s not quite as good as it was uh a year ago but I felt like it was a really good price um the one I can’t remember the name of that just came in a bit shorter as I would expect it would

Have done because it’s a Harry copton horse um it was priced up um a little bit High I think and then it understandably came in a little bit shorter because people try and and and follow in form jockeys um and then the last one Rousey that one was the one

That I can’t really explain um because early markets there were some early markets who had it at single figures and then last night it’s it was a massive Drifter like a barge no one touched it and often that is because you find that in a situation where a horse might be a

Non-runner the next day or there might be some very clear insid of knowledge saying that something wrong with the horse I can’t understand it generally speaking because there was there was an unraced horse I think um that was was backed in that ran under par and that

Would have pushed other things out but not to the extent that horse going out to 25s in places last night because on on the four I think it was fourth on its first run and the other horses had finished higher placings if you actually compare the quality of the race and

Everything else it was about par but but my read of it was if you if you watch back the race um that first time out and that and again I spend a lot of time watching old races to learn about future races if you watch back that Rousey’s

First race it was going so well in its first race and it just sort of ran out of gas as if like not not quite there on the fitness level it ran like a horse that was going to be running much better next time so although it was it its kind

Of performance level overall was on a par it ran much better than anything else had run in that race previously and so the price it went off at I would say which is about Sixers was about the right price what I can’t really explain is why it went out to

20’s 25 to1 the night before because it didn’t didn’t make any sense to me um and the only thing I can think is because it’s um a bumper race most people weren’t going to be looking at it a bumper race is not much for them your average punter won’t won’t go near that

Race and do much with it and whether or not there was just a little bit of money going around for the others and they it got pushed out because it was it was slightly overlooked but yeah it wasn’t like the horse got massively punted I would have said it was more that the

Price corrected itself through the day um I know that was a bit long and rambly but I like to try and do these things and I know at least if a couple of people have got some benefit and it makes them because the point here is not

About I won’t be here forever it’s not all it’s not my tips it’s about what I could impart on other people and some people would be like well that’s a bit dumb you’re just sort of giving away your Edge but I’m only here for a short

Time do you know what let’s have a good time on the on the horses uh well else we can be here um and uh yeah so hopefully there’s some stuff in that that ramble that was useful to to some of you when making your own selections about uh bias and Market moves and

Whatnot um right what was going to haven’t I haven’t even done Wednesdays back yet have I uh the golf last week uh was about Break Even I think if you did it to the letter of the law you would have been 50p down so we had a win first

Week on the golf we broke even second week and I would class last week as broke even so it but but but it been one One That Got Away to a degree because Lee howong looked looked all over the the kind of the top five leaderboard and

Then hit Bogies I think it was something like 14 15 16 or 15 16 17 something like that got picked up a birdie at the last but he looked absolutely nailed on to be top five um but then drifted I he was like tied seventh so you got Bally half

The full stake for a play so half of 125 to1 so it have been like 62 two and a half to one place that was enough to get the money back and then the dis other disappointment was in the uh Farmers where had seu Kim who looked like he was

Was on a nice little run and was going to get placed and then I think the was it the last three holes something like that bogey quadruple bogey bogey six six Drop shots right at the end um cost him so neither would neither were were going

To win that um but the interesting thing about that farmers and I saw this unfolding there wasn’t much about it in the in the sports news and now now there’s a little bit more but Nick Dunlap who I wouldn’t have gone near um only his third or fourth professional

Tournament although he’s not a professional but participating he’s an amateur he’s only 20 second year of college in in the US so yeah won the tournament but doesn’t get any of the million plus prize money doesn’t get any of the FedEx cut points um because he’s he’s still at college and he’s an

Amateur first amateur for 31 years to win a tournament uh professional tournament so fair play to that young lad he’s he’s already US amateur Champion um he he he’s one that’s definitely going to come into the ranks in the next year or so properly um and

Uh and yeah clearly clearly going to be a talent so that’s that right uh should we do the BET is the bet that the bet that’s the bet yeah that’s wday is BET here we go all right 350 fairy house I’ve left out that chap sto

Race I know some will be looking at that Big Field RAC of chipto wasn’t keen on anything so I’ve left it 350 I I know people will be like 6 to one what you doing flat cap yeah gold Haven I think that’s the right call in

That race I didn’t like anything at a price um so I’m going to go for a shorty and hopefully uh we we get a comfortable place out of it if not a win but I think gold Haven um is knocking around um and we’ll pick up one of these races at some

Point so gold Haven at Sixers then the 4:00 lingfield um 12 Runners three places because there’s a shorty for it which is not ideal um but forever proud is is overpriced I I mean I wish I’d have got the opening price in places that opened at 40s um which would have been amazing

But um I know I know it won’t be for everybody because chancer I’m sorry yeah you you’ll have to bypass that and do it as a Yankee because I know you won’t be keen on the jockey booking but um I think it’s overpriced it should be more

Like eights or nines um so I wanted to have it in but it’s these classified races are donkey races so I’m only looking at them where I can find a a good bit of margin in so I think that’s worth trying and then at Kempton I’ve

Got three six o’ Kempton I’ve gone for Haley’s horse so Haley Turner few months ago I was absolutely avoiding her because she was so out of form and right now she’s amazing I think it’s 43% strike rate in the last two weeks is it it something like that six winners in 40

Runners something like that um she’s in really really good form um and I think that horse has got a nice chance at 16s and the other one I was going to call out in there um if you get on quick and you are Paddy bet fair and 365 I think I

Saw it um Al is alard Place alard Prince can’t quite remember the name it’s like a WT a Double T A D and then second word p white and light blue colors 66 to1 it’s a really inconsistent horse but on a going day that horse could absolutely frame I I preferred

Dagmar run as a solider horse um but there wasn’t much in that decision I for the channel I don’t think I could have taken 66s I taken 50s um and it’s 33s in places but if you get the 66ers that’s a really nice little bet to try um then

8:00 Kempton Renardo 16s and then finishing off shorty mostly sunny 8:30 Kempton 11 to2 10p eway Canadian three 50p each way singles on the three double figure prices no singles on the Shorties and then with 40p each way double on the two Kempton 16 to1 shots Dagmar run and

Renardo N9 pound is your bet it is an advantage to use Sky Hills or 888 they are the same place terms which is 53 44 soorry 53 43 4 I think that’s right um and then py and bet Fair are 53 33 four um so Sky Hills a are the

Best Paddy and bet Fair next to best place terms but Paddy you get bog so they are the best five book makers for this bet that is it £9 is what we’re doing and then a on the golf for this week as I said five golfers um it’s this

Week chatting on about it last week this week the American tournament is due to start on the 24th which is uh Thursday uh and we’ve got two golfers in that one and one of them is a right biggie uh you can get 500s with Sky 400s

Um and quite a few other places for eight places uh Peter Malnati um yeah there’s not many times I put up a a 500 to one shot um for the golf but I think he’s worth taking um so he’s in and then there’s three in the in the

Tournament um in the where is it is it’s is it R I’m not sure it’s some I don’t I can’t remember if it’s still we’re still in Dubai or we might have moved to a different place in in the Arab states the European tour is still still where

The sun is right now so um anyway uh and yeah I’ve got three in there and I’m sticking Faith one of them sticking Faith was Lee howong from last week it’s not in the staking plan but it is not a Bad Bet to have a look at him

In first round leader uh someone said about this they had it they backed in first round leader last week I don’t do first round leader bets very often but I will say to you I personally have backed him 40 to1 uh first round leader top six uh places because he usually starts fast

If he’s on a good week it starts fast and the fact that you can get a slightly better price in places for firstr leader as you compared to outright Market it was worth a little dabble for me um not in the staking plan as a as a first

Round leader I’m just putting them out five golfers five uh same stake singles so it’s 5 pound advisory but um yeah I’m for those that are interested I think as a first round leader is not Not a Bad Bet in that tournament particularly because a lot of the the the kind of the

Top stars from last week’s tournament on the europein tour uh are either having a break or they’ve gone over um to the states so there’s no superstars in the field um who might start off fast that way so yeah I think he’s a reasonable

Bet I think that is what I’m going to do for today I’ll be back tomorrow for the last evening video of the week because it’ll be Friday Saturday morning we’ll do the tips the league then um it was it was a pretty it was close close stuff in the tips League uh last

Week um so we’ll go through that um and I think that was all I was going to cover probably some other stuff I’ll leave it I’ll do it tomorrow that’s fine um you’ve had enough rambling off me tonight okay all right you stay safe out there and I’ll see you tomorrow night

Thank you very much bye-bye