Outside Shots is back with free CBB betting picks today, College Basketball odds and predictions for Sat. Jan 20. Eli Hershkovich and Stephen Andress discuss what separates this college basketball season from the rest before breaking down their reads for the Saturday and Sunday slate,
Trust the Outside Shots Podcast to give you the best bets for NCAA Men’s Basketball all season long as we cover line movement, game predictions, expert picks and more ways to get your money down at a sportsbook. We look at which sportsbook betting apps you can find the best odds for CBB Futures, break down the big matchups on the College Basketball slate with real analysis, and give our betting tips, free CBB picks and predictions for March Madness and the Final Four.
00:00 – Outside Shots College Hoops Preview
07:38 – No. 17 Marquette at St. John’s
15:19 – Marquette Futures
17:13 – Creighton at Seton Hall Predictions
23:09 – Creighton Futures
24:28 – No. 1 UConn at Villanova Predictions
29:40 – South Carolina at Arkansas Predictions
35:30 – Alabama at No. 6 Tennessee Predictions
42:59 – Eli’s Underranked Team
45:43 – Auburn Futures
50:38 – Michigan St. at Maryland Predictions
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Another edition of outside shots presented by the lines.com you can follow us on X thelines us you can follow me at Eli hovic and you can follow my Coast at Stephen Andre Stephen did I pronounce your last name correctly this time no it’s okay though you are like the
100th person that’s tried to give me some Latin flare in my life and I appreciate it but I’m just a boring old white guy so Steven Andress in the number one on Twitter I always get it confused in my hat I thought you said it was the other way story my best friend
From high school has like mispronounced my name forever and he just I tried over and over he just can’t get it so hopefully the bar is set low for you so don’t worry about it yeah I would assume the odds of anyone pronouncing our last names correctly both of them would be
Like Infinity to one so we got a tough mix for sure but what we do have on the show for sure is a breakdown of the biggest games on the college basketball slate this coming Saturday if you watched college hoops on Wednesday night as we’re recording this Thursday morning
Thursday afternoon you got your typical dog that lost in overtime with Nebraska closing as a two and a half Point Underdog at Ruckers winning by five leading by five with 324 left in regulation they lose by five in overtime so Dogs Go To Die in overtime that
Notion held true in the Big 10 per usual and then Rodney Terry calling out UCF players for the horns down thing at the end of Texas’s loss to UCF the knights form the horror clutch the pearls how dare anybody do horns down it’s just it’s it’s like the 11th commandment Thou
Shalt not horns down apparently if you live in Austin I like it yeah pull it up Mike shashy pretty much I tweeted that out last night or exed it out that sounds kind of weird but I think that’s what Elon musos wants to go with maybe Texas
Should be a little bit more concerned about their defense number 66 an adjusted defensive efficiency you lose three key Defenders from last year’s team Ser Jabari rice Timmy Allen Christian Bishop I was in on that team when Chris beard was the coach I thought they were heavily overvalued with Rodney
Terry didn’t really wind up mattering until that blown loss to Miami in the Elite 8 but apparently he wants to act like the hierarchy when Texas can’t win a pretty favorable Big 12 game they were eight and a half Point favorites like I mentioned so pretty bizarre man but
Looking forward to this weekend card in college basketball yeah absolutely it’s it’s loaded you know I went to Syracuse still have a soft spot for the Big East we’re going to talk a lot about the Big East in this episode kind of the logistics around this show moving
Forward forward we’re going to use this show each week to talk a lot about the Saturday slate however it’s it’s tough to do a betting show in college basketball when the lines don’t come out till late night before and we want to give you guys enough time to be able to
Find this show on YouTube and our audio feed so that you can have actionable helpful information the nature of that means we’re going to have to do this show before the lines come out so this show gets edited on Friday it’s going to get posted then give you guys a little
Extra shelf life what we’ll do is we’ll share a lot of the information project it spreads from kenpom and our fantastic partner at Hasam metrics coming into these games share Eli’s thoughts his power rankings uh Advanced metrics that we’re looking at for these games to kind
Of give you an idea of where we might be looking where we might be heading before the lines even come out and then as always you can go to the lines.com free Discord Channel go to the homepage top right hand corner you can find the button again free to join and in the
Basketball bets area the staff basketball bets and the college basketball betting discussion we have more than 4,000 members talking college hoops every day and if I make a bet I will put it in the Discord and frankly a lot of these games we’re talking about here each and every week on the show
Very likely I’m going to have at least one bet from one of these games so that’s where you can find those and follow up after you listen to the show yeah and you can also if you’re going to be tailing or fading any bets from anyone you can use bmgm promo code
The line won word to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses so keep in mind you need to be a first-time user remember that bonus bets are not equivalent to real money and before we get into these games just quick nugget that I found yesterday on
Kenpom highest Collective offensive efficiency through the first 73 days of a college basketball season in the kmom database which dates back to 1997 so we are seeing some excellent offensive play when it comes to free throw percentage two-point field goal rate the highest two-point field goal clip over this what
23 24 year stretch 26 maybe if I was better at math in kmom history so it’s been a fun year and a lot of those teams that rank in the top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency we going to break down on the show today yeah and you know
I’ve been told that the only curse word I can’t say on this show is the FW so uh that’s good to know and I’m going to drop one here because I think at least to me Eli one of the biggest reasons we’ve seen such a big increase in
Scoring college basketball is fewer of these [ __ ] charge calls we’ve seen over the past few years you know it’s it’s a lot harder to get a charge called now this season than it has been in any other season in our lifetime the bar is very high to get a charge most of these
Are becoming block calls now and I think that’s led to more free throws higher scoring tougher to play kind of of like help defense when you’re if if you’re just going to try and stand in and take a charge so I think that’s a big difference so far in conference play I
Haven’t seen more of the like tougher whistle you know the kind of conference play it’s a grinded out situation we kind of see that sometimes some of the rules that get emphasized in non-conference kind of go by the wayside when we get to the conference play even
Coaches have said that to us coaches have said that nationally over the years I don’t think we’re seeing that quite yet so it makes me think that this might continue into conference tournaments NCAA tournament where the scoring is going to stay pretty high compared to most years
Yeah I also think it correlates to the transfer portal in terms of now your power six power seven depending on what kind of conferences you want to Loop in to that crop of teams and again conferences I think you’re seeing just highly efficient play at that end of the
Court because of the talent that are going to some of these High major programs like a school in Yukon that loses three of its core players from last year’s National Championship team and then you add not only the incoming freshman but cam Spencer from Ruckers who essentially replaced Jordan Hawkins
As their best shooter and one of the most elite Shooters in college basketball dating back to last season and in an offense that’s loaded this year he’s upped his efficiency which is part of the course but still you’re seeing across college basketball not just with the Yukon yeah absolutely so
What do you say we get into this awesome Saturday slate here of games Eli and we’re going to start with a noon tip off on Saturday in the Big East at Madison Square Garden Marquette going on the road to take on St John’s the golden eagles
Number 17 in the AP Pole right now if you look at the Hasam metrics ranks they have Marquette at number 15 St John’s at number 40 St John’s uh had to play play a game middle of the week without Rick patino coming back from covid-19 uh if you look at offensive
Efficiency here it’s Marquette who’s slightly better around 116 per 100 possession St John’s at 114 defensive efficiency despite Rick patino and his kind of press style he’s known over the past few decades for having a solid defensive teams that continue to get better as March gets closer it’s
Marquette that actually still has a slight Edge in terms of defensive efficiency here so um if you look at kind of the projected spread that hasel metrics has basically a pick them here at MSG uh still considered home court for St John’s even though we’re not at carnosa Arena
Here your initial thoughts on this matchup between these two solid Big E teams and I think a St John’s team that is starting to maybe outperform expectations minus the the setback without patino on the bench a couple of nights ago yeah and Sean hall went on a
28 a run in the first half in that game Believe It or Not which blew it wide open Jordan dangle also missed the game for St John speaking of transfers and from the lower major low major ranks to the high major ranks coming over from Penn now with Johnny’s missed that game
With an illness so we’ll see if he goes not that that was why St John’s lost by close to 30 points I think that definitely correlates more to patino’s absence but still dingle’s ability to create off the dribble whether it’s uh catch and shoot shot or attacking the
Basket definitely missed for the Red Storm but looking at Marquette also missing some integral pieces not necessarily coming back for this game either Shawn Jones their backup point guard to Tyler KCK also a little bit more of a two Off the Bench Tor an ACL
Last week I think so out for the rest of the season and Chase Ross also a depth piece Off the Bench two guard Wing out till the end of the month and if you look at marquette’s shooting efficiency from behind the Ark in conference play 27.8% and like I mentioned without Ross
Without Jones guard depth could be an issue to the point that you brought up or because of the point you brought up with St John’s pressing now this isn’t your typical Johnny’s press or even your patino press even going back to last year and His short brief tenure with
Iona if you want to backt track a bit more to Louisville or even his Kentucky days St John’s ranks in the 63rd percentile and press frequency per Synergy so they’re not in the 90th percentile even 80th percentile kind of like when Mike Anderson was at the helm
For St John’s now like you hit on St John’s should outperform expectations the rest of the way and they already have to begin Big East play which wasn’t the case in Anderson’s 10year but then you look at St John’s three-point defense allowing opponents to shoot around 28%
Are is Marquette going to hold true to that 27% clip maybe just because if they get worn down by the Johnny’s defense throughout this game maybe kak’s efficiency is continues to be an issue also cam Jones you look at his three-point shooting in conference play he got back on track against Villanova
But a combined four of 20 in those Butler and seatan Hall losses so Jones is going to have to find his touch from Deep from Marat to be able to compete against St John’s and I say that with all honesty because you mentioned the Hasam metrics point spread I have St
John’s closer to around a pick against Marquette when I take out my priors and just looking at the last month of conference play in in the Big East so you look at St John’s also 36 percentile in defensive efficiency in transition so that could be an issue against a
Marquette team that wants to get out on the break but I really think this boils down to whether Marquette can find its three-point shooting against this St John’s defense that could be due for a bit of defensive regression yeah that’s that’s kind of where my head was at on this one Eli is
You know I saw potential positive regression here for marquette’s three-point shooting I don’t know when it’s going to come but I feel like it’s going to have to come at this point Jones and kak their three-point field goal percentage is is down from last season from what we saw I wonder if at
Some point that’s going to get back to the averages we saw a season ago and just overall the way these two teams play offense really makes me want to side with Marquette in this matchup I’m always hesitant to take you know a team to cover on the road here especially if
It’s going to be around a pick them and we’re not getting a lot of points it’s just it’s a tough ask but this isn’t a true College Road environment here at MSG so it’s it’s you know I think you get more casual fans in there it’s not a
Tight loud Arena like for a normal St John’s game it’s kind of like the equivalent of when Villanova plays at Wells Fargo Center right there’s a lot of empty seats even for big big games but if we look at the style of these two teams and and the quality of shots that
They take you know St John’s 328th in rim and 3 rate Marquette 30th in the country in rimen 3 rate Marquette understands the highest quality shots you can take the highest efficiency shots you can take and they are they’ve totally bought into that being top 30 in
The country St John’s hasn’t they still take a ton of mid-range shots low efficiency shots the other side too that I like about Marquette they create extra possessions with the amount of turnovers that they force they’re 26th of the nation in turnover percentage and they also don’t give extra possessions away to their
Opponents they’re seventh in the nation um in I have that flipped I apologize let me let me fix that they are they’re 26th in the nation and turnover percentage offensively so they don’t give the ball away very much at a top 30 rate and on defense they’re top 10
Enforcing turnovers in terms of turnover percentage so you know I like that a team that takes the ball away a lot and doesn’t give the ball away a lot that leads for extra opportunities so if this line is going to be around a pick them even
Though they’re on the road I still like Marquette here to basically just win the game against St John’s definitely fair points the one thing I will say about Marquette and I say it in the same vein as kraton is struggling similar sense just you lose key pieces you lose athletic pieces
Going back to last here for Marquette not just what they’ve lost this season with those injuries that I mentioned Jones and Ross but omx Prosper what he meant to Marquette defensively his ability to switch on any position I think he allowed individual defense-wise around a 26 27% field goal clip when it
Came to again just his matchup so with kraton and what they lost athletically Marquette lost arguably its best defensive player when it came to its Swiss army knife on that into the floor so just one thing to keep in mind when you look at Marquette they may have
Been power rated a little bit too high entering the season and now drifting back into the range maybe you are right Stephen maybe this is a by low but I would still be a little bit concerned with those current injuries just because of the depth on this team as it stands
Just a quick note on Marquette big picture Eli and their Futures you know I noticed that right now you have them number 12 in your power rankings slightly higher than the AP pole has them right now at number 17 this is a team that had top 10 expectations coming into the year coming
Off a regular season in Big E tournament title a year ago you know if we look at their Futures 35 to1 the win the national championship plus 950 can be found on them to make it to the final four I love the way they play offense I certainly hear you on the defensive
Concerns but where just big picture are you when it comes to Marquette and their potential ability to reach the final four after a disappointing tournament a year ago I wouldn’t bet the Futures even at this current whether you want to call it a by
Low state or just a little bit dip a bit of a dip because entering the season they were in the plus 20 or 20 to1 range 25 to1 range but you look at rebounding efficiency a they don’t create a lot of Second Chance shots and B they’re not I
Mean they’re around par when it comes to defensive rebounding rate so that’s my concern and that’s a big concern in March even though they have the offensive efficiency that we touched on and alluded to from the GetGo on this podcast where offensive efficiency is up in college basketball and the highest
It’s been in a offensive efficiency margin over the last 27 years in the kmom era but to that point defense matters even more so than it has in the past that’s the way I view that match J or at least the slight rise in offensive efficiency this year and while Marquette
Top 20 adjusted defensive efficiency what goes into that category in a sense is being able to limit opponents from generating Second Chance shots which Marquette doesn’t do it a super efficient clip so that’s my concern with this team on top of the injuries and depth let’s check out another biggie
Matchup here on Saturday we have kraton taking on Sean Hall in this one I believe this is also a noon tip off uh if we look at some of the rankings here in terms of has metric kraton is number 13 Villanova sitting at number 23 uh Eli we got to have a conversation
Here about kraton I I I don’t know if you saw them against Yukon on Wednesday night and maybe it’s more credit to Yukon um than it is a downgrade for kraton offensively but I think you and I would both agree that our expectations from kraton haven’t exactly been met
Here so far this season with us both having Futures on them before the year started um then again maybe this is just you know you know kind of the midseason swo we see in the Big East happens from time to time and it gets a little easier when you’re playing non Big East
Opponents when you get to the tournament so uh what are you seeing here for this kraton seat and Hall matchup and um and how what’s your what’s your Defcon level on kraton at this point it’s concerning it’s definitely in the warning area and if you look at some of their efficiency numbers and
Conference play maybe you see this as a buy point on at least kraton’s offense because they’re shooting just below 30% they got a lot of open looks in that Yukon game that they missed but I also thought some of those misses were just a product of tired legs because a Yukon
Was completely controlling the tempo not that Kon doesn’t want to push the floor either but the one difference that you have in this Katon team that I didn’t think was going to be the case is the point guard drop off from Ryan nehar to stepen Ashworth going back to last year
Now I know nart hasn’t been super efficient from at the beginning of the Season maybe midpoint of non-conference play up until now with Gonzaga but still his ability to create off the dribble is something that kraton is heavily missing when their three-point shots aren’t dropping which they haven’t in
Conference play and Arthur Kuma while he was a bit of a clumsy player when it came to his individual turnover rate still really athletic and in a similar sense to what om ma Prosper brought to Marquette last year bit of a Swiss army knife in a sense for creating
Defensively and his ability to switch and we’re seeing that a bit with Kansas State I don’t know how Kansas state is 10 and0 in overtime games under Jerome Tang but somehow they are and Kuma is a part of that success this season but definitely hindering kraton’s ability to Showcase any athleticism because you’re
Not generating Second Chance shots to the point that I brought up with Marquette to Crea an eighth in offensive re rebounding percentage in Big E play turnovers are also an issue which I didn’t expect to be the case I thought Trey Alexander would be a lot more
Efficient when it came to attacking the rim and his mid-range game which is his best attribute ability to create off the dribble I I mentioned that kraton doesn’t have a point guard that can do that I thought Ashworth was going to be playing more off ball and Alexander more
On ball which has been the case but the the efficiency level hasn’t risen to the point that I expected and a lot of prognosticators expected when Katon was expected to at least make another final four run or be in the conversation now they’ll be in the four five seed range I
Don’t think last night’s loss is any sort of a drop off for marquette’s NCAA tournament seating just because Yukon is likely going to be a number one seed but all the concerns I had about Katon entering that game I’m still concerned with and I would be concerned with going
Into the seat and Hall game a very athletic team that has risen above the expectations that we saw entering the season I want to ask you though about the way Sean Hall is racking up these wins though currently 56 in the country in terms of you know luck if you look at
Kemp pom they’re four their last five wins by 43 four and six points when Sean Hall beat Yukon Yukon shot only four of 21 from three in that game against Sean Hall this is still a team if you look at adjusted defensive efficiency is only
77th so all that to me makes me wonder if this is a by low spot for kraton with how frustrated we’ve been with them um and just how much seatan Hall seems to be outperforming expectations you know it makes me wonder if if we’re going to get a cheap price
Here on kraton Hasam metrics has this as about kraton minus 2 if he was making the line and I’m not sure that’s the line we’re going to see in this one after or what we just saw from kraton and how good Sean Hall has looked right Sean Hall to your point
35th allowing the 35th highest three-point scoring rate in college basketball so they do give up a lot of Threes or at least a a large chunk of points to the opponent from behind the arc now I still think athleticism could be an issue for kraton in this game
Where if Sean Hall is maybe slowing down the tempo a bit if you look at average possession length in Big E play Sean Hall ranks bottom two in the conference so kadari Richmond also has taken a major step for Sean Hall when it comes to his individual efficiency
But this this spot kind of reminds me of Marquette last season outperforming expectations in Big East play and like you said luck has been on SE Hall side when it comes to average margin of Victory some coin flip wins for sure during their five game stretch after
Losing by double digits 20 points at Xavier but I don’t know if this is necessarily the spot to back kraton just because I still think kraton may be a tad overvalued yeah fair enough if we look at kraton Futures right now it’s certainly gotten more around the number
We saw when the market opened as opposed to when you know people started betting into this like you and I did uh coming into the season 40 to1 right now to win the national title plus 950 to reach the Final Four right now you have them dropped in your power rankings to number
22 uh that’s a pretty decent dip from where you had them at their ceiling earlier this year right yeah I had kraton as a top five power rated team and that goes back to the point that I brought up with the unexpected drop off at least in the sense that Ashworth the
Three-point shooting hasn’t been consistent for him so even though he can’t create off the dribble himself and nard could in a sense you’re not seeing what ashworth’s best attribute is to this kraton team which is being able to give you a high level of efficiency from
Behind the arc like he did during his 10 year at Utah State so unless that changes at seat in Hall unless Katon shoots lights out which very well could happen I think this is the right point in terms of where kraton should be positioned in my power ratings I don’t
Think I’m going to be shifting them a lot but at the same time I don’t think that means this is a byy point on kraton for the long term so kraton gets Molly whopped by Yukon on Wednesday night number one team in the nation if you look at the AP poll they
Go on the road to take on villain NOA on Saturday night 8:00 Eastern Time tip this game off campus at the 76ers Arena the Wells Fargo Center in South Philadelphia if you look at Hasam metrics ranks Yukon only number 13 despite that AP pole ranking Villanova number
22 which makes me curious what the thread of this one’s going to be if it’s going to be more in line with you know kind of the the rankings that the AP pole has so uh if we look at the projected spread from Hasam metrics it actually has Villanova favored by less
Than a point in this one so uh Eli where do you land on this I think it’s just an interesting situation with Yukon uh they get their big back on Wednesday night looked absolutely phenomenal defensively in that that game I mean it looked like kraton couldn’t buy a bucket for
Stretches of that second half really impressive by my eyes so you know just your initial thoughts on this matchup between Yukon and Villanova yeah I think the thing that surprised and has impressed me the most about Yukon is Castle’s jump ever since he came back from his injury and
Non-conference play now he’s not providing the shooting that Andre Jackson didn’t provide in his own right last year and hurly adjusted in the midst of Biggie’s play and that really propelled the Yukon to making that National Championship run Cas on those Futures Castle shooting about 20% from
Behind the ark so if that improves he’s a five-star freshman it could very well improve it definitely tacks on to Yukon ceiling also Donovan kingan back in the lineup return last night and made a huge impact for the Huskies Off the Bench we’ll see if he starts but when clingin
Is on the floor in this game that’s going to give Villanova an opportunity to really space out this Yukon defense and that’s where Yukon took advantage or maybe got a little fortunate with their seeding in the NCAA tournament because just based off last night I think you’re
Going to have a lot of betters and just college basketball fans saying oh Yukon is going to repeat and be the first team to repeat as National Champion National Champion since Florida going back to the late 2000s or before the 2010 so I think what they 2006 through 2008 they won
Consecutive national championships but if villan NOA can stretch the floor with Eric Dixon who’s shooting just below 36% and give you that five out offense which Villanova certainly has the capability to do on a nightly basis especially since Justin Moore is back from that KNE injury return against dep Paul last week
I know Villanova lost at Marquette but good bounceback spot for the Golden Eagles against the Wildcats on Wednesday night I make this line at around a pick them so assuming vova gets Lino back no chance this is a pick them right no chance they they’ll make Yukon like a
Possession favorite I would think even though they’re on the road we’ll see maybe a point or two I could see this closing with Yukon either being a short favorite or around a pickham I’ll say that it may not open at a pickham but I would not be surprised if the line gets
B down to where Villanova closes pick minus one just because a you’re playing at home even though like you mentioned this is at Wells Fargo and B Villanova has the offensive offensive advantage to the point that they had it against Yukon going back to two years ago before Yukon
Made the leap last season where they were able to space out Adama sonogo with Eric Dixon at the five that’s where Villanova has an edge and teams typically have an edge even though Yukon has an elite big in kingan he’s a little bit slow-footed and he’s not great at
Closing out and Yukon plays drop coverage to the same sense that Katon played drop last night against Villanova or against Yukon I should say and cam Spencer took advantage in terms of yukon’s backourt so I give the edge to Villanova offensively and I definitely see the market coming in towards
Villanova no matter where this Line opens up they’re smart offense too they ranked 42nd in the country and rim and three rate Villanova does so you know that they’re going to be taking smart efficient potentially efficient shots there uh high quality shots so I like that about Villanova as well I don’t
Have as big of an opinion on this matchup as you do but certainly cannot wait to see it I think it’s certainly a uh a spot where you know you’re going to absolutely get Villanova’s best effort you’re going to get students coming over from campus on the main line to come to
This game against one of the best if not the best teams in the country defending national champions so you know you’re going to get a full effort for this one absolutely for sure um even if the uh you know the upper deck of the NBA arena
Is only half full like it is most of the time for these for these Villanova games in in NBA arenas let’s head over to the SEC now Eli a 1 pm tip off on Saturday between South Carolina in and Arkansas at Bud Walton Arena Hasa metrics has this as
The number 89 ranked team in South Carolina against AR Arkansas who’s at number 115 which to me I say well what do what the heck do you want to talk about a couple of potential niit teams here for but clearly you see something in this matchup that has piqued your
Interest yeah I see this potentially as another byow opportunity with Arkansas they closed around two and a half three-point dogs against A&M on Tuesday night and almost blew that late lead to the aies I don’t know why on the flip side Buzz Williams call timeout and then didn’t pressure the ball against Tran
Mark let him walk Waltz up the court really with seven imagine that’s not what the conversation was in the timeout huddle you wouldn’t think so but maybe way Taylor the fourth was just on a high after hitting that ridiculous shot honestly it reminded me a bit of Marcus
Pages 3 that went completely unnoticed because then what happened on the ensuing possession which won Jay W’s First National Title TI at vill NOA Chris Jenkins hits the three on the iconic play from Archie diako that shot that Wade Taylor hit for the lead for texus A&M was ridiculous like double
Clutch in double coverage essentially I don’t know how he got that shot off to begin with let alone hit it just goes to show you how good of a player he is and kind of speaks to Texas A&M ceing if they can reach it if this team does
Indeed make the NCAA tournament but both teams in this game South Carolina and shooting under 28% from three so kind of sticking with the theme of byow opportunities now South Carolina isn’t trying to necessarily shoot the ball a ton from beond the ark Arkansas is maybe
Not by Desai they just have a bunch of Chuckers whether it’s khif battle coming over from Temple or L Ellis from Louisville you have a lot of three-point shooters or at least three-point Reliant players when it comes to the shots they want to take now you look at South Carolina fairly efficient transition
Defense which comes into play against an Arkansas team that certainly wants to push the pace now I say that with a little bit of just just because South Carolina when they played upper asalon teams like Alabama last week they struggled and when it when you look at their transition defense in particular
Lost and blowoff astion to the Crimson Tide allowed 1.23 points per possession in transition that’s exactly what what the Hogs want to do against Mei Johnson and this Gamecock team that wants to play at a much slower Pace number 336 in kmom in regards to their average
Possession length so it’s going to come down to Tempo would I expect Arkansas’s three-point efficiency to continue to rise like it did against A&M especially at home at Bud Walton Arena yes but if the Gamecock slow down the Tempo and they’re efficien is in the half court
Keep this more in the lower scoring range then could be another loss for Arkansas in kind of crazy fashion just considering that would be their second loss so far at home which typically doesn’t happen at Bud Walton Arena but slight Edge for me on the hog Stephen
Kemp pom makes it Arkansas minus two hasle metrics makes it Arkansas Min – one the question I have for you is how concerned are you about South Carolina’s ability to create extra possessions here they are top 40 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage an area where Arkansas’s defense is outside the top
150 also South Carolina really doesn’t turn the ball over that much they’re around 100th in the nation there meanwhile Arkansas’s defense is outside the top 300 in forcing turnovers that to me makes me a little bit nervous in terms of South Carolina being able to potentially generate extra
Possessions here or at least you know not have as many turnovers against an Arkansas defense that isn’t great at turning over their opponents maybe the one Counterpoint that I will say is well a it’s a home game and we’ve seen home teams dominate in power six power seven
Conferences not that you should that should dictate your bet in this game but just something to keep in mind especially when it’s this Arena I know Auburn Walts into speaking of Waltzing uh at Bud Walton Arena a couple weeks ago and dominated and maybe we could talk about the Tigers a bit later
Because there’s a key injury with this Auburn team headed into a massive stretch next week but on top of that Arkansas when you look at strength of schedule ranks in the 30 range and South Carolina in the 200 range so I my Counterpoint to you in that regard is
Efficiency wise for South Carolina on the glass is that going to come to fruition against a much more talented Arkansas Team I say no on the surface but maybe South Carolina will continue to outperform expectations yeah it’s a fair point with Arkansas cuz they they were not shy in the nonconference games
Against Stanford Memphis North Carolina Duke all in a row had a basically a much easier contest against Ferman before another contest against Oklahoma in the non-conference they were they went out and challenged themselves in the nonconference that might be playing into some of the numbers we are seeing here
With Arkansas so uh to your point potentially a bu low spot here for the Razer backs as well staying in the SEC in my opinion the game of the weekend in that conference Alabama on the road in Knoxville against number six Tennessee if we look at the Hassel
Metrics rankings even though there isn’t a number next to Alabama on the score bug Hassel metrics has this as Alabama number seven in the country Tennessee number eight in the Country 2 pm tip off at Thompson Bowling Arena Eli this is an interesting one because
You know Alabama is one of the I would say Alabama and Auburn are the two Darlings of kind of the metrics Community here uh even though Alabama is not ranked in the AP pole currently they are the number one team by adjusted offensive efficiency by kenpom so a
Really big opportunity for them to potentially show that the metrics are right and they are one of the better teams in the country even though the voters don’t see it that way at the moment yes Alabama’s offense which you would expect under n oats the pace in
Space offense you want to play Up Tempo you want to Chuck up a lot of Threes And that’s exactly what the tie do and speaking of strength of schedule Alabama faced a gauntlet in non-conference play and lost a couple of coin flip games or at least one in particular at the AFF
Forementioned kraton Blue Jays easily could have won that game if Grant Nelson decided to hit a couple threes he did did not so they lost and they took advantage of uh Ryan co breer’s injury for sure in the first half he came back to begin the second half but believe the
Tide covered in that game and I think the market is starting to Trend in Alabama’s Direction because as you mentioned this line should be around a possession now for Tennessee Dalton connect is finally healthy which is huge for them mid- major transfer speaking of those from the GetGo on this show one of
The better scores in college basketball when he is healthy the first ten volunteer with back-to-back 35 Plus point games since Allen Houston former New York Nick and also former Tennessee volunteer going back to the late 80s early 90s and he suffered that ankle injury and a loss at North Carolina in
Comeback fashion mind you Tennessee almost came back and beat the Tar Heels another team that is in the top five in college basketball at least in the AP Top 25 but that ankle seems to be healed up so big for Tennessee at home in this game to have their best player shooting
The ball at an efficient clip again but on the flip side going back to Alabama they’ve won six straight Tennessee has won nine of their last 10 games so I think the market is going to be pretty spoton with the point spread just because market efficiency wise Alabama
And Tennessee are both redot now if you look at Alabama and Conference play or at least on the six-game winning streak all those wins Alabama was able to control the tempo and they have shot lights out in sec play right around 42% 1.26 points per possession is Alabama’s
Offensive efficiency on spot up shots this season and this probably doesn’t come as a surprise to You Stephen that ranks in the 100th percentile in college basketball per Synergy and the one lineup that could give Tennessee a lot of issues is Sears rightel Estrada Griffin and Nelson because that’s your
Pace and space five out offense especially when a do is at the five for Tennessee now both teams rank below League average when it comes to the SEC in turnover percentage so whoever creates more turnovers and therefore is able to control the tempo in their favor
At an uptempo Pace will arguably win the game but I also think it’s going to boil down to whether Alabama can make Tennessee pay and drop coverage with that five out lineup and I would expect oats to go to that fan rotation a lot with right
Off the bench at the two and Nelson at the five just trying to get a little bit of a matchup Advantage offensively so to Tennessee’s credit this is a much improved offense from what we’ve seen in previous years if you go back and look Tennessee finished outside the top 60 and adjusted
Offensive efficiency a year ago right now they’re sitting at 21st so it seems clear that that program realized you know they’re they’re not going to make any noise in the tournament if they don’t improve their offense and they’ve done that and the defense is still there
This is still one of the better defenses in the country number two by adjusted defensive efficiency now although the offense is greatly improved from a year ago I still take issue with the way they’re running their offense and especially when they’re playing a matchup like this against an elite
Offense in Alabama it’s not just that they’re they’re making all their shots Eli it’s that they’re being smart about the kind of shots that they’re taking Alabama ranks 12th in the ation in rim and 3 rate Tennessee is 210th so I don’t like that with Tennessee especially if if there if if Alabama’s
Going to run hot here you know maybe they drop off a little bit but I see what you’re seeing if you look at conference play Tennessee is 12th in the SEC in three-point defense that’s that’s not a good combination when you’re facing Alabama here even if they even if
They regress a little bit in this matchup so I I guess my follow-up question to you is is this still a paper tiger with Tennessee is this the spot where Alabama gets their signature win two good questions I think Tennessee is a national title Contender not I
Think I do believe so especially with connect healthy that’s the key like I brought up with Arkansas South Carolina not that I’m Auto favoring the home team in this spot tough place to play for sure right and I think Alabama could have a bit of a drop
Off from three but if they do take advantage of a do in drop coverage that’s the key for me because that’s the one way even though Alabama would be at a little bit of a deficiency when it comes to their rebounding with Nelson at the five against a much bigger Tennessee
Team whether Ado is starting at Center or he will be starting at Center but whether he’s on the court at the five or not so going to boil down to your typical Alabama game script in a positive or negative sense whether the threes are dropping with that five out
Lineup or whether they’re not and on paper three should be good to go but we’ve seen it happen plenty where a team gets negative Varian in a road spot and I’m not saying Tennessee is going to blow him out but maybe you look Tennessee live if Alabama is either
Threes are falling early and you expect regression may not happen or they’re not falling from the get-go and you expect that to continue sure and and we’ be remiss without saying that Alabama still appears to be a bit of a liability on defense in this game sitting 65th in the
Country and adjusted defensive efficiency uh in terms of projected spreads kenpom makes Tennessee a minus 4 haslum just slightly under minus four here for Tennessee at at home in Knoxville Eli let’s take a moment here because you know Alabama’s one of those teams that is unranked in the AP pole
However sits pretty high up in your personal Power Rankings here and there’s a handful of teams that kind of fit that criteria you know I I found five teams that are not ranked in the AP Pole right now that cracked your top 25 we just talked about Alabama you have them at
Number 10 plus 650 to make it to the final four Texas A&M you have it number 16 at 20 to1 to make the final four Villanova number 19 you have them at also 20 to1 to reach the final four uh also in the top 25 Mississippi State and
Kansas State 18 to1 and 38 to1 respectively currently to to make it to the final four we mentioned Alabama we talked about Villanova you know which of these five teams that are not ranked in the AP that you have in the top 25 do you think has the highest ceiling potentially when
We come to the NCAA tournament at the end of the year um and and has the best chance of reaching the final four if you’re asking me a that crop because I have a little bit of a different answer that may surprise you okay but A&M or Mississippi State to me
I think those are two potential lower seated teams in March that could make a run two experience coaches more so Buzz Williams in the dance than Chris Jans but still two really good coaches in to me is the best or what is the best conference in college basketball in the
SEC Big 12 certainly as an argument and many will say it’s the big 12 but I make it the SEC per my power ratings anam’s back court is it’s not just loaded when you look at the one and the two it’s one of the best back courts in college
Basketball with Wade Taylor I fourth and Tyrese Radford and and then the match of advantage for Mississippi State in the dance would be tlu Smith and how good that defense defenses now the Counterpoint is what happened against Alabama for Mississippi State last weekend Alabama controlled the tempo
Mississippi State jumped out to a hot start was never really able to recover once the tide got hot from deep and Mississippi State generally speaking wants to slow the game down so when the opposition is able to speed you up and you have to play to that Tempo even
Though Mississippi State averaged over a point per possession which is above average for sure Mississippi State generally speaking wants to slow things down rely on its defense get the ball to tolu Smith on the Block but the point that I wanted to bring up is the future
That I love that I bet going back to late November Auburn 80 to1 now sitting around 20 to1 to win the national title so therefore much lower odds to make the final four than some of those teams that you mentioned not when it comes to implied probability but just a better chance
To make it to the final weekend in the big dance Auburn could have a tough stretch here coming up they blew out Vanderbilt I was kind of worried about a sleepy spot on Wednesday night they overcame that but they play Alabama and Mississippi state two teams that we’ve
Touched on here so far next week and they may be without Janai broom who is one of the most impactful players in college basketball I think in Kemp pom’s top 10 when it comes to individual player rankings and you look at this Auburn team collectively you mentioned where teams get their most efficient
Shots it during Auburn’s 10- game winning streak 13th ranked offensive Rim field goal percentage and the top rated defensive Rim field goal percentage those numbers coming per hasle metric so an elite Rim offense when it comes to offensive efficiency and an elite Rim defense and a lot of that has to do with
Janai broom and he may have suffered a bit of a knee strain we’ll see what the reports say later this week and if he’s out against Alabama or Mississippi State you may get a quote unquote byy low opportunity is on Auburn I’m not saying they’re going to dip to the 20 to1 range
To make the final four considering their National Title odds are 20 to1 right now but either way price May climb a bit higher in terms of their implied probability decreasing to make a Deep Run in Marsh if they lose one or both of those games yeah to your point the voters are still
Hesitant to move Alburn up here you have them you know number six the AP poll has them at number 13 and if they drop a couple like you’re thinking they might do they’re obviously going to go even lower than 13 you know we’ll see if the
If the odds follow the voters you know 20 to1 right now than win the national title plus 450 is the best price you can find on on Auburn to reach the final four um right now kind of looking at their resume from a bracket ology perspective I mean
What’s their best win Eli the Texas A&M game like if you look at kenpom rankings currently that’s basically the best win at the moment so in my opinion you know if we’re going to try and get them up to the two line here they’re going to have
To take advantage of some of these matchups in the SEC two games against Alabama potentially where they can get some resume boosting wins they have the home is it yep home game against Kentucky away game at Tennessee and then maybe we’ll see in the SEC tournament
Here but you know those would be the games I have circled here if we’re going to hope to get Auburn back up on a higher seed line here the rest of the way if uh you know even after potentially um losing some guys to injury here over the next week or so
Yeah and you may hear some naysayers say on top of the broom injury if that does wind up impacting Auburn next week that Auburn’s taking advantage of an elite home court advantage speaking of that and they certainly have that’s one of the best home courts in college basketball and definitely is baked into
My numbers when Auburn is playing at home but two Road games at two very difficult SEC environments and two teams that are trying to fight their way not only climbing up in the NCAA tournament picture in a sense in terms of Bracketology but also trying to take
Down maybe a little bit of a fraudulent Auburn team when broom is on the floor because that’s something and I brought up on the last outside shots podcast even though I’m very high on Auburn I was talking about this with former division one coach Tom K now with ESPN
When broom is on the floor you run into a similar issue that kraton has with Ryan cooch Brer and some of the other teams I’ve touched on King in for Yukon where you have a slower footed big in drop coverage and when Auburn faces a
Team like Alabama if the tie go to that five out lineup that I mentioned could become an issue for Tennessee this weekend it could also be an issue for Auburn next week whether or not broom is on the court so just something to keep in mind with auburn granted
Yukon last year during their National Championship run didn’t face a team that could take advantage of them in drop coverage when Adama soogo was on the floor so every team has a weakness and parody in college basketball is at an all-time high especially when you look at that Elite offensive efficiency
Across the sport but either way I do think you may get a byow look here in the Futures market for Auburn depending on how some of these results go maybe in the short term by low opportunity when Auburn faces Kentucky at home assuming broom is good to go for that
Game one more game to get here one more game to get to here and it is a Sunday tip off before we do just want to remind everybody if you’re watching on YouTube and if you’re enjoying the show you think the information is good uh do us a
Small favor hit that like button hit the Subscribe button and uh let us know in the comments what you’re betting this weekend in college basketball as well if you’re listening on the audio side five-star review goes a long way to try and get some more people here uh new
Audience to try and uh share this information with them as well so we thank you in advance for that Sunday tip off here at noon Michigan State goes on the road to take on Maryland now although this is a battle of two currently unranked teams Eli you do have
Michigan cracking your top 25 at number 24 our friends over at Hasam metrics has Michigan State still at number 10 taking on a Maryland team that Hasam metric has ranked only at number 82 clearly you and I would agree that the the turps have been a disappointment for us this year
After having high hopes coming into the season nevertheless it’s at least interesting to me in conference play that their defense has been Fairly reliable their expected defensive efficiency is basically been met over the past handful of games here and meanwhile Michigan state is 0 and three in True Road games
This year so tell us why you circled this game to talk about this week uh on Sunday yeah I have those Maryland Futures which I pretty much burned from the Geto long shot but this is the team you know you mentioned their defensive efficiency I have them power rated when
It comes to that end of the Court as a top five defense right now what stinks is if they didn’t lose to Davidson and UAB a non-conference play and maybe you’re a little more competitive against villain NOA we may be talking and I may be saying that Maryland is a decent long
Shot kind of juxtaposed or in the same vein as Mississippi State and Texas A&M to make the final four I don’t know if they’re going to make the tournament probably not so that’s the one downside with that take but maryn maybe with a late season run they needed to win
Against Northwestern turps if they had won that that game and then they beat Michigan State on Sunday may have climbed back on the bubble but either way this is the team that Kevin Willard thought he was going to get this is the team I thought Marilyn was going to be
Granted not as poor offensively and Jamie Kaiser and deshun Harris Smith those two Herald The Freshman fourstar or Harris Smith actually was a five-star but Jamie Kaiser has been so inconsistent from three so has Harris Smith not really the the defensive player that Maryland thought they were
Getting at least when it came to guarding Elite Big 10 players and playing more like a sophomore junior than a freshman at least at that end of the court but you look at three-point efficiency for Maryland overall number 350 on that end or in that specific metrick right around
27.5% of course we’re recording this game before Michigan State takes on Minnesota I would expect the Spartans to take advantage of a pretty fraudulent gopher team and they’re 11-point favorites in that game so keep that in mind to you may see this projected spread rise a bit Michigan State though
Allowing the 67th highest perimeter scoring rate in college basketball and they’ve gotten a bit lucky when it comes to unguarded or guarded catch and shoot jumpers efficiency wise their opponents 27.8% in that category now when you typically hear guarded shots well you would say of course opponents are going
To miss but you would still expect water me it to level a bit in in that percent where Maryland now I know on the flip side has not been very reliable from the Beyond The Arc but Jordan Gano believe it or not entered that Northwestern game 11% when it came to his three-point
Efficiency made two threes doesn’t sound like a lot but that’s the kind of player Maryland thought that they were getting in the transfer portal from Indiana a bit of an underrated and un undervalued floor spacer when it came to his role and Indiana Jamir young has has been
Ultra efficient and then some in conference play 23 second half points in that loss at Northwestern going to be a great homecourt Advantage for Maryland at this game if they want any shot of making the tournament they need to win it I have a hunch Maryland takes out Michigan State
On Sunday also you brought up that point that Michigan state has struggled mightily on the road could be an issue for them in a hostile environment assuming Maryland gets the crowd that I expect I I’ve mentioned the metric rim and three raate a couple of times in this
Show and I want to ask you how you kind of put that stat in the context because I see Michigan State and despite some of the really high metrics currently on them or high rankings by the advanced metrics uh they rank 333rd in division
One in rimond 3 rate so to me I see that and it makes me think the ceiling for them offensively is capped in any given game and it makes it a team that is more likely to get upset in any given game am I putting too much
Into that stat like how do you frame that stat where do you use it in kind of the the spectrum of your analysis of a team absolutely and just looking at Michigan State in particular I I say that with emphasis on the metric and Michigan State’s lack of it offensively
You go back to North Carolina making that National Championship run a couple years ago I think it’s a fantastic comparison so I’m going to give myself a pat on the back for it because I didn’t see a lot of people saying this entering the season that the loss of Brady manik
On that UNCC team that the keep in mind was an eight seed made it all the way to the national title game but got positive three-point variance when it came to their defense because their opponents couldn’t shoot from three that well and weren’t able to take advantage of the
Drop coverage with Armando Bott now Michigan States run they didn’t make it as far a last year they were a seven seed made it to the Sweet 16 got up and by Kansas State in overtime so you may say okay well Michigan State wasn’t as overvalued as UNC in the ensuing season
As the Tarheels were because they opened up last year as the number one overall team after losing to Kansas in the national title game well Michigan state entered the season as the fifth or top five team in the AP Top 25 I had them
Keep in mind as in the 1011 range so not as low as I have them right now but still the loss of Joey Hower for this team was huge especially in ball screen sets with Tyson Walker and AJ hogard because right now Michigan state does not have a reliable fourman Malik Hall
Has been inconsistent and then some this year in the scoring department but what Hower meant to them as an efficient three-point threat especially in their ball screen sets they lack and a lot more because like you said they are not super Reliant when it comes to the most
Efficient shots on the court which is near the rim and from behind the ark so Michigan State’s offensive ceiling is definitely capped even though a lot of prognosticators you’ve seen throughout the season okay this is a by low opportunity on Michigan State in any given game maybe in the context of the
Short term but I’m with you I don’t think so in the long term yeah I gosh if Maryland can just squeak into the tournament isn’t this a team that we potentially have to look at the draw as a maybe double digit seed making a run to the second weekend you know that to
Me is kind how I view this team you know I I’m I’m with you the the hopes and dreams we had coming into the season with the Futures we bet are probably out the window but you know there still might be a by low opportunity here if
They can improve the resume enough just to get into the field or you make a conference tournament run we’ve seen it done before Georgetown a couple of years ago especially in the Big 10 right right we almost saw it with Penn State last year I don’t think they played on the
Wednesday or anything crazy like like that the opening round of the conference tournament but still a bit of a surprise to your novice betters even though they played booty ball and did it at a very high level with Jaylen picket and spaced the floor around him that was such a fun
Team to watch but i’ digress Maryland could be a team that you look for and I look for when it comes to Big 10 tournament features if you dig into Maryland’s team profile over at Hass metrics this is now you know again we we are recording on uh on Thursday so
Maryland does not have a game between now and the Michigan State game so that’s good uh so this is now one two three four six of their last seven games they have outperformed their expected defensive efficiency and the only game in that stretch where they have not was when
They faced Purdue one of the best teams in the country so you can rely game to Game On Maryland’s defense it’s just enough matter if they do enough offensively where it’s you know going to matter so um I’m I’m with you I think Michigan’s on up upset Alert in this and
One last Quick point about Maryland uh Dante Scott has really found his range didn’t have it in the Purdue game he seems much more confident now I’m not saying that’s going to take Maryland to another level and you’ll see them rise in the range of Auburn when it comes to
Their National Title features but having him confident offensively not only adds to M or Maryland’s low three-point efficiency and it it’s rizen even though they rake number 350 in across division one in that category but also gives you a versatile player when it comes to his ability to exploit smaller fours with
His back to the basket game all right so just to summarize uh for me I’m keeping my eye on the kind of number we’re getting for Marquette on Saturday um I’m also keeping an eye on Maryland on Sunday uh Eli it sounds like you’re keeping an eye on the Arkansas spread
Along with Maryland any others there that I’m missing no I keep in mind though that Auburn point that I brought up earlier just in the Futures Market if they lose at Mississippi state Alabama now if somehow the prognosis changes for j i bram’s knee and I don’t even want to say
It but let’s say there’s an issue with that in the long term maybe my thought process changes but there could be a bit of a by L dip in Auburn’s future price where it may be worth looking into over the next week or so all right and if if
I bet those then you can find them in the Freel lines.com Discord again top rightand Corner ofth lines.com homepage you can join check out the college basketball betting discussion uh really a a vibrant group there that talks Hoops every single day I’ve learned a lot just watching and listening to their
Conversations um people sharing betting ideas angles letting people know you know why is the spread look weird to me I don’t get it somebody chimes in well they just came out there is an injury on this team so um very useful for college basketball betters not only now but for
The rest of the season as well for Eli hovic I’m Stephen Andress thanks for watching thanks for listening best of luck with your college basketball bets this weekend D
