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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Farmers Insurance open DFS tactic show got a lot to cover for you all the updated forecast the rankings our best pivots our top Fades all of the good stuff to help you dominate your DFS contests this
Week for the Farmers Insurance open I’m excited it’s going to be fun show so let’s get straight into it shall we all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best tool and best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going
To make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player they have been uh hard at work the past couple of weeks upgrading updating their site uh making making a lot more userfriendly a lot more information at your disposal so go check out fantasy
National.com you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I post research every week on the PGA tour generally around former winners course history all of that so if you want to
See that piece of research that I do every week then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player exposure in the DFS contests that I play so if you want to see that bit of information that comes
Out usually every Wednesday evening but with the uh change the schedule this week that’ll come out tonight after the DFS tactics show so again if you want to see that information give me a follow over at X and then lastly for social media gabes X handle is in the
Description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a very good way to start your preparation uh for the week ahead and throughout the week he will update you with his own version of recent form course history all that and if you are a subscriber to
His article which is free to do by the way you are going to be able to join us in his substack chat after calls calls in the DFS tactic show every Wednesday evening of course tonight being uh the DFS tactic show it’ll be tonight but
You’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat as we continue the DFS talk over there after Call’s calls so go show gab some support follow him over on social media subscribe to that article again it is free to do so then lastly we
Are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all what Wagers have you made uh who are you targeting this week who you staying away from and of course I will be posting the chat question uh shortly after the intro so definitely want to
Hear your voice on that as well uh so jump into chat I would love to hear from the community uh and let’s try to keep our positive momentum going from the AMX we’ve had a good start to the uh PJ tour year let’s keep it going and figure out
Our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Farmers Insurance open and we start as we always do in a DFS tactic show with the updated super forecast over at windfinder and while that is going let me go ahead and uh start a poll which uh player returning from injury are you most
Confident in this week four options um they might be in slightly uh slightly out of order but it is Will alatus Daniel berer Gary Woodland and Maverick mcney so I will post that question which player returning from injury are you most confident in this week is it will alores is it Daniel
Burger is it Gary Woodland or is it Maverick McNeely um interesting question considering uh most of those four have some pretty positive history at Tory Pines particularly Gary Woodland and wills aloris mcneel is played well as well so would be uh anxious to hear what the community thinks in that regard but
Let’s take a look at the updated wind forecast for the farmers of course all the rain that they’ve been getting pummeled with the past day or so has dried out didn’t look like they got much of of some precipitation today but with all the rain they’ve had this course is
Going to be extremely long it’s going to be pretty wet tomorrow would be my guess uh it’s going to be it’s going to play extremely long going to play even more difficult this this rough kept it 4 in long it’s generally long uh in of itself
Add the fact that it’s going to be wet it’s going to be very difficult to play out of but throughout the tournament there is no wind at least in the forecast and no added precipitation uh so it looks like just a week to play your
Guys uh who you think is going to play best at Tory Pines with that said I have seen an interesting argument for targeting the players that are playing the North Course tomorrow that is the easier of the two courses the argument has been that uh you get the North
Course when it’s at its at its hardest uh when it’s most wet and it’s going to dry out throughout the week uh so it should be very very receptive tomorrow and the North Course isn’t all that long only about 7,250 yard so that is the argument that I have
Heard from uh most people who think that there is a a stack to exploit don’t know if I am fully on board with with that I understand the reasoning but I’m just going to play my guys regardless if they’re starting on the North or South course this week as I just think the
Entire tournament is going to play pretty darn tough so with that we’re going to close out of winf finder and move to Fantasy National and we’ll take a look at long course performance this week uh in preparation for our mix I model again with all the
Rain that they’ve had in La Hoya uh the course is going to play extremely long uh I imagine it’ll play difficult so your top performers on courses that are long which is over 7,400 yards per fantasy National your top performers Sam Stevens sunj Xander seah tagala Max hom
Patrick kley Michael Kim Nikolai hoard Nico etaria Keegan Bradley OE batia and Harry Hall those are your top performers on Long courses in the past 12 months or 36 rounds but it is just the past 12 months if you want to take a quick look at top performers whenn rounds have been
Difficult we can do that as well as I truly think that this is going to play pretty darn difficult this week your top performers win rounds have been difficult in the past 12 months Xander Patrick kentley Colin morawa Max hom Justin Su Jason day Justin Rose sahi tagala minwu Lee and SE
Straa so uh pardon me while I take a quick look and make sure I’ve got this in somewhat of an order I see Gary Woodland is at 7 ,000 uh zalot Taurus at 8,000 Burger is at 81 so I I guess I could switch that around and McNeely is
At 6900 so I would just need to switch around that um and because I am uh extremely OCD I am going to do that so apologies um which player returning from injury are you most confident in this week uh 8100 Daniel Burger 8,000 will zot Taurus 7,000 Gary Woodland or 6900 Maverick MC
Neely so apologies let me repost that chat question so there you go there’s the updated poll question with the pricing okay um with that let’s just go ahead and jump into the mixed condition model um the first mixed condition model with the new TI upgrades from fantasy
National so we’ll have to run through it uh a little bit more in depth uh tonight than we normally do but a look at this week’s mixed condition model and we looked at last uh last year’s mix dish model and it was a pretty darn good one
Results based only three of my top 20 missed the cut uh lots of top 10 so I did not differentiate a whole lot from from that um mixed condition model but you see that or you will see that I did um remove one of the metrics CH move
Some percentages around just getting cut off to begin our mixed condition model I put 5% in off the tea on Long courses um Tory Pine South which is going to get played three of the four rounds for those who make the cut over 7700 yards uh players are just going to
Have to be very very good off the tea on these long courses or on that long course to contend so 5% there 10% in Strokes gain approach uh ended up putting uh extra percentage in here this was the last metric that I reduced the percentage of uh I did have 15% in here
I brought it down to 10 to fit all the the metrics that I wanted to put in my mixed condition model I wanted to put 15 in here kept it at 10 but that is still a an increase from last year when I had 5% in approach 5% in around the Green in
Long rough again with the amount of rain that they’ve had in La Hoya the rough is going to be very long it’s going to be difficult to play out of these greens are going to be difficult to hit so I want to see who is good around the green Green in long
Rough putting 15% and it says courses multiple this is just the POA Ana courses Pebble Beach Tory Pine South and Riviera and if you followed me over on social media you would know that this was a pretty intrical part to the research that I did this past week regarding past winners at
The farmers their performance on poaa specifically at Tory Pines but POA an as well so 15% in putting on POA ana um this is the metric that was just the most important it was the shot type that was most important the past five years here at Tory Pines despite all the emphasis on
The ball striking which is which is necessary despite white the around the green it’s still about putting and how much um comfortability or comfortable uh or how comfortable players are on Paul Ana since it’s such a a different surface than anything else um especially later in the day it gets bumpy it’s it’s
It’s treacherous familiarity with POA Ana is a big facet so I wanted to put that uh or uh reflect that in my mixed condition model 15% putting on POA Ana talked all week how we’re going to be targeting the bombers you you have to have some distance um to compete here very very
Rare exceptions I’m thinking Peter malat um think in col more Kawa very rare exceptions most of the time the players that are performing the best at uh Tory Pines are the players with a lot of distance so 10% on uh driving distance again courses over 7,400 y 10%
In Greens we saw uh throughout the prior leaderboards how um conducive these were or how correlating these were to Upper in success at Tory Pines so 10% in Greens gained when scoring is difficult again I just think this is going to play very difficult this week Tory Pines is
Long long it’s difficult as it is add in all the rain the rough it’s going to be a challenge so 10% in Greens gained when scoring is difficult 5% each in birdies or better or and bogey avoidance when scoring is difficult uh I only wanted to
Keep each of these at 5% uh I ended up in fact using a little bit of birdies or better I use birdies or better gained instead of just birdies gained because there is around on the North Course and Eagles do happen there so 5% birdies are better gained when scoring is difficult
5% bogey avoidance when scoring is difficult and then to round out the mixed condition model 10% in total par 3s we looked uh at the specifics of Tory Pines last night in the data dive show how no particular length of par three uh contributed more than you know you know
About a third of The Strokes gain total in par 3s so we’re just looking at total par 3s 5% each in total par fours and the 450 to 500 par fours since this range of par fours makes up about half of the total in par 4 so we did end up
Splitting at splitting out the 450 to 5 10% in par five uh look I wanted to put 15% in here I just simply ran out of percentage with the amount of metrics that I ended up using in the mixed condition model 13 of them so just kind of ran out of percent
So 10% in par fives if anything I would uh suggest that this raises in your mixed condition model if you don’t use as many uh metrics that I do and then finally three put a voidance again on those multiple courses the PO Ana Riviera Pebble Beach Tory Pines 5% in
Three putt avoidance on those surfaces so there’s the mixed condition model um I feel pretty strong about this one especially since uh it was very closely mimicked after last years and last year produced some really really good results the one metric that I took out was the
Pro 200 plus um even though that would be the range that seems to be the most important here um it wasn’t very predictive last year so I decided to take that 10% and move it around especially since I wanted to emphasize the putting I wanted to emphasize some driving distance some
Other facets so the 200 plus proximity is what I took out from last year’s mixed condition model moved that percentage around but still 13 metrics in this year’s mixed condition model ways that I’ll be weak you know if the doesn’t matter as much if uh off the
Team matters more if around the green matters more um if good drives gained or maybe Fairways end up mattering more than I think I’m just focused on the distance and the greens um if Bird’s gained has a big jump or bogy’s avoided has a big jump
And and really is the scoring metric to focus on this year might be a little bit weak considering I am kind of hedging a little bit putting 5% in both but I feel pretty strongly that uh we’re just going to want to look at total part 3s this
Length of par fours and total par fives but of course if there’s a specific length that stands out this year I’ll be weak otherwise again I just I feel really strong about this mixed condition model the metrics um behind it of course you can always argue the percentages I
Do feel pretty strong about this mixed condition model so with that let’s go ahead and move to Microsoft XL and the reveal of my rankings my rankings go as such my number one player this week is Colin morawa Xander number two Tony fenale third luk list and Max hom round out my
Top five sahit deala will alator Justin Rose Jason day and Sun Jay round out my top 10 what you will see is a very very high concent ation of excellent performance excellent course value excellent performance historically at Tory Pines so as a reminder to those who are returning viewers or for your
Information if you are a new viewer my rankings go in three or are faceted off three different criteria good evening Pete thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated hopefully we are ready to optimize our lineups uh tonight for the farmers and continue the positive momentum that we have built the
Beginning part of this PGA Tour season thanks for jumping in chat but my three or my rankings are based on three criteria the FC rank which is a straight numerical value based on the mixed condition model that we just went over the metrics and the percentages uh fgc
Spits out of ranking for each player course value uh this is an attempt to give a player a value on how well they have played that course the past 5 years the lower the number the better and that’s why you see such a heavy concentration of course value at the top
Of my rankings because it was another central part of my research this week in the sense that uh historical performance at Tory Pines uh seems to be important for those who win um I’d ask that you check out social media check out X if you want to see the specifics around
That uh but prior success at Tory Pines tends to lend itself to wins and then we are playing DFS so the third criteria of my rankings are projected ownership as we are trying to find the unique plays uh to use during a DFS contest so percent owned or projected ownership is
A factor in my rankings as well but no no surprise here at least for me you can always you know um talk about the ordering of players but who is in this top 10 really doesn’t surprise me I would have thought maybe hki would have Rose or risen into the top 10 otherwise
I mean COL morawa two for two excellent finishes Xander has always played Tor very well Tony feno even though he doesn’t have a win very solid Luke list a champion two years ago maxom your defending Champion SE toala two for two uh with a top five last year again
Mentioned Wills alores has played very very well here Justin Rose Jason day both former Champions so no real surprise here um even though Luke list has pretty terrible putting uh put putting ranking on POA Ana he is putt well here at Tory Pines he is putt very well at Tory Pine so you
Don’t want to ignore that I mean you see here even Hadi in the mid 6s he’s not in the pink or red so always want to take a look uh at Hideki if he’s putting well and he is historically putt well here so there’s a look at my top 10 again no
Real surprise on who just perhaps a a little bit of reordering in terms of where they fall in the top 10 let’s sort on the price board and get a feel for where our fellow contestants are going in the price board and see where how we can
Maneuver and find our way to some pivots so we want to sort on the salary there are four players in the five digits or in the 10ks this week we have Xander at 106 Patrick cley at 105 Colin more Kawa at 102 maxom at 10,100 there is one player that is
Pretty Far and Away um worst of these four and I don’t disagree with that sentiment it’s not like it’s terrible you see he is third per the fantasy National analytics he’s just not played Tory Pines well in his one or two tries and you see the members of fantasy
National seem to be gravitating away from Patrick Klay other wise I’m going to be in the 10ks Xander has always played well here morawa is my number one player max hom the defending Champion also the number one putter on POA Ana again all the California um ties which you’re going to
Hear a lot about as well at La Hoya so in the 10ks even though he is the most projected own player I I just think I have the most confidence in Colin morawa to despite the fact that he does not have a whole lot of distance it has not
Precluded him from playing well here in the past number two in Greens number one iron player in the field this week number two in par 3es and we saw how much those are a pretty important factor at Tory Pines so there’s a lot to like here with morawa I will make him my
Number one player just like the rankings in the 10 case I’m going to make Max hom number two uh only because I do feel like he will have a little bit of uniqueness off of Xander I think fantasy National is underestimating Xander’s uh ownership a little bit and hopefully
Gabe will jump into chat here after a little while and and provide his Source or or provide some information around uh his sources um for uh projected ownership as I go strictly by fantasy National Gab does utilize a couple of other sources I would tend to think that
Xander will be more owned than maxom that’s why I’m going with Max hom as my number two in the 10ks I’ll make Xander third and I have no problem with Xander I’ll be using some Xander I mean he’s number one in the rankings I just think
He’s going to be in the 22 to 24% owned um and then I’ll make Patrick kley fourth in the 10ks and he’s probably a fade for me uh just because there’s so many players that I like in the 9ks as well I’m probably going to be fading Patrick Klay
Um it’s a little bit dangerous though you see I mean fantasy National analytics really likeing it’s just I’m kind of scared with the course value that he hasn’t played well here prior years so that’s how I see the 10ks moving into the nines we have sunjay ludvick Oar Jason day
Tony fenale Min W Le and Eric Cole now you would think that ludvic Oar would be a very strong fade considering where he is in my rankings he’s getting hurt by a couple of facets one he’s never played Tory Pines so this um value here is artificially High uh until we know that
He likes playing the course or not so he’s getting hurt by the fact that this is a pretty artificially High number he is pretty widely owned and with the heavy emphasis in putting that I have 15% on poana he’s not putt po Ana at least in competitive rounds so he’s
Getting hurt with that as well I like ludvig Oar but seeing him at 16.4 or 165% I would be willing to be cautious and to perhaps stay away a little bit knowing that the irons aren’t the best he doesn’t hit the most green of these elite players and on Long courses on the
Longest of courses his off the te has struggled a little bit it’s a dangerous gamble I’m I’m not bold enough to full fade ludvig Oar but I do like enough in the 9ks that I can back off my usage of him a little bit I love Tony fenale he’s
Going to be popular I love Tony fenale um you’re you’re going to see him uh on uh my social media after a little while after the show little foreshadowing for my betting card but Tony fenale is not a very good putter you see he is top 30 in
This field on POA putting he loves putting on POA so you always got to take a note of that Jason day former Champion here at Tory Pines the irons haven’t been good I would not worry about that has not uh bothered him in the least playing well here one of the elite
Putters on PO Ana hits plenty of greens just like Tony Fen now uh hasn’t the fact that he hadn’t played Par 3 Par 3 as well hasn’t stopped him I really like Jason day I was on him pretty high last week as well when he was pretty unique
He’s going to be a lot more popular this week because uh he’s well known for his um love of Tory Pines I still think it’s a good play I just like Tony fenale more sunj is going to be extremely popular probably chalky will eat he’s played well here generally speaking as well for
The fact that he doesn’t have a lot of distance uh he just devours these par fives and he’s been pretty good around the green especially in long rough so I like sunj I just like fenale and day more especially if fenale is in indeed more unique than sunjay I would just
Target fenale a whole lot the one player I’m probably going to full fade in here is Eric Cole you see the course value just like Patrick Klay it’s pretty miserable now it’s only one maybe two times but I I Envision Eric Cole more of a short shorter course player you think
About his his prowess at uh the Sony uh think about his prowess even though it’s difficult at the Honda there’s shorter courses you see off the tea especially on Long courses has been pretty bad it’s been pretty bad the around the Green in long rough has been um skeptical I guess
Is the best word he is the number one par three player so if they are of extreme importance Eric Cole’s going to be really good but you got to take a stand some somewhere so I’m going to fade Eric Cole he is with Patrick kley
One of the two players one of two or three players that if they do play well I am just going to lose uh I I just like too many other players in the 9ks to use Eric Cole I think Min Le will be fine but I do have some concerns of the very
Small sample size that he has he’s not been good on PO Ana he’s also not been great off the te on Long courses but just understand this is a very small sample size so I’m much more interested in Min Lee than I am in Eric Cole
Despite the fact that he has not played partic or he has not played Tory Pines at all at least in competitive rounds so in the 9ks I’m going to use sunj I’m going to try to limit my use of him but I’m sure I’m going to use him like Jason
Day and I love Tony F now oar I can’t say is a full fade I’m sure I’ll have him but I’m going to try to limit my exposure to him just like I am with sunjay Eric Cole’s a full fade just kind of lukewarm on Min Le I don’t know how
To approach minu Le this week considering he’s not played Tor Pines and some of his metrics are really really awful but I don’t think they’re really this bad so I’m I’m just I just don’t have I don’t have a good feeling one way or the other on minw Le moving into the eight
Um look sahit tala very very popular I think the second most projected owned player chalk that I’m going to eat um good on PO Ana really just kind of solid all the way throughout uh the par five he will have to be a little bit better
If he wants to win but he is the number one birdie or better gained player when it’s difficult he’s also top 10 on the these par fours so a lot to like there with sahala I’m going to be using quite a bit quite a bit of sahit
Tagala I love Hideki this week just love Hideki the fact that he is not an AB failure on these greens still an elite iron player he’s got plenty of distance he hasn’t shown it lately on these long courses but um I really like keki he’s played well here par 3es are good
Greens he’s a better par five performer than what’s showing I just I really like AI especially at 12 a half% like um fantasy National is projecting him at if you’re comfortable taking the chance on Wills Al Tores especially since you know he’s still coming off that injury now he was promising to see
Him make the cut at the AMX so I think he’s he’s probably getting a a little bit um healthier a little bit more into it this is a place he has historically had a decent amount of success so I think if there is a place to look at
Using Wills Al Taurus this would be it Adrien [ __ ] Nikolai horard true wild cards um now [ __ ] is putt on PO Ana uh I’m thinking it was the Genesis I could be wrong with that it didn’t turn out all that well for him um a very very talented player and
He’s been playing well overseas you know in the DP World Tour Dubai and all that stuff so it’s it’s probably a worthwhile gamble if you’re willing to take it hoard another very elite player you see the number one distance player uh especially on these long
Courses he’s just not putt po Ana in a competitive round so we don’t know how he’s going to to take to it that’s what’s hurting his ranking quite a bit but two players that at least by fantasy national standards appear to be pretty unique very talented players I think I
Would lean [ __ ] of these two but I don’t think there is an issue with using either one rose looks really good and he’s had a lot of Prior success here um I’m a little bit more sour on Justin Rose uh I’m much more using sahala and I
Love hii at the same basically the same exact ownership I would much rather play Hideki than I would Justin Rose so take that for what you will I’m just a little bit more sour on Justin Rose but all of the analytics really really like him so in the 8ks L Keegan I
Think he’ll be fine finished third here last year he’s had some success I don’t know I’m just I always tend to look at Keegan on bent but that aim Point his aim Point has been has really improved as putter um English probably not really like tagala SE Sher should be good I
Think he’s going to be a little bit more popular than the 10 and a half here but he should be pretty good so take a look at at sepa I just really like keki um and I’ll I’ll use some Wills alturus um considering his his past uh success here no thanks on Baden
Hoot and I’m a little bit more down on Rose than what you would think from the ranking all right moving into the upper sevens luk list Champion two years ago look I this I think this is a little a little bit misleading he really likes putting on POA um he’s a better putter
On POA than what’s showing here top 15 in irons top 15 in distance top 10 in Greens I mean just an all World ball Striker and he’s a much better putter on POA Ana specifically than what’s showing here really really like Luke list he’s going to be popular there more chalk I
Will eat Patrick Rogers should be pretty good as well he doesn’t have nearly the amount of success that some of these other players do but a California Native top 10 on this PO Ana he also has a lot of distance on these long courses when he has to move it he
Will also very good around the green so I like Patrick Rogers quite a bit in the upper sevens as well I don’t know why Nick dunlap’s in here he needs to be removed since he is not playing my apologies um not really in love with a whole lot else
In here like you think tough courses or difficult courses you would think Keith Mitchell but Mitchell’s 0 for four here at Tory Pines um if you’re not you know if you’re willing to um throw the prior course value or or prior course history out you might want
To take a look at Keith Mitchell but man 0 for four in the past five years at making the cut here that’s hard to ignore so I’m I’m out on Keith Mitchell despite the fact that I always talk about him when it’s difficult Jagger
Rided out well for me a lot of that is in these par fives seventh and Par fives which you do have to take advantage of here at Tori top five and off the T so that’s that’s good but he’s also pretty bad on POA three putt avoidance is really bad
Putting in general pretty bad on PO Ana so take the good with with the bad he might be worth a look I’m not in love with it Hustler rated out well I don’t know he’s got he’s got a lot of Statistics that are you know sketchy to bad the irons haven’t been
Great green when it’s difficult par 3es are pretty bad just off your screen is par 3es are pretty bad don’t think I’m there with Bo Hustler batia is getting hurt by the fact that he’s not played Tory Pines but a lot seems to work for batia here he’s actually pretty good on PO
Ana he’s good at the par fives 43rd he’s been getting better with his irons I kind of like batia this week Fox and hits atsun in the mid sevens again true wild cards I’m pretty high on Ryan Fox for the totality of the year most of his metrics are pretty good
With the exception of his par 3es and Par fives 99th and 93rd but you know the par fours he’s been Stellar eighth and second boy avoidance bir’s a better gain it’s a true Wild Card how he takes to PO Ana he’s not put it uh in official
Competition I kind of like Ryan Fox but I understand if you want to stay away and see how he plays on POA first moving into to the low sevens Taylor pendrith got a whole is getting a whole lot of love I understand it very good putter on
PO strok a approach yeah but I’m telling you he has struggled when courses are long he’s he’s kind of struggled and you see the birdies are better gained when it’s difficult now he has avoided a lot of bogeys when it’s difficult which you like but I have some concerns with
Taylor pendra so this is the third of the three players that if they play well I’m going to lose I can’t say it’s a full fade I’m sure I’ll have him once or twice but I am very very cautious about Taylor pendri this week instead in the
Low sevens I’m looking at Michael Kim I think Michael Kim should be pretty good this week another California Native uh just kind of solid all the way throughout and the and the par 3es are excellent top 15 um elsewhere in the lower sevens take a look at Sam
Ryder top 25 in putting he’s fourth fourth in irons in this field and there’s a lot of good players at this field he is fourth in irons in the past 12 months he’s got a few things is not going for him mainly the lack of distance off the tea in general but he
You see I mean he’s played pretty well here in the past so you might want to take a look at Sam Ryder I’ll definitely be using him a little bit um it might be a little ambitious to go with Kevin Yu coming off of his U third place finish
At the AMX but he is a very good driver of the golf ball you see the driving distance top 30 off the te he does struggle on PO Ana so I’m a little bit less um excited on Kevin U this week than I was last week uh Thomas
Dietry inside the top 20 for me I think I’d much rather go with Justin sub based on the fact that we know he loves putting on poana you see third putting and POA I think his irons are better than what’s showing here he’s had a little bit of su success at Tory
Pines so I would look at at Justin Su 7200 over uh some others here in the bottom half of this of the 7ks but I do want to mention Kevin Yu he’s an elite driver of the golf ball and off is going to be pretty important this week Thomas
Dietre good play very good player maybe worth a look considering how uh little he seems to be being considered but the part 3es are really bad um pretty bad with the irons lately so it’s not without risk at the bottom portions of the 7ks at 7K
Exactly take a look at Gary Woodland I know he’s coming off that injury or the you know the brain surgery again you think about his win his major Championship win was at Pebble Beach which was on PO Ana irons top 10 in this field fourth in distance fourth in Greens there’s a lot
To like with Gary Woodland and he’s played well here before so it’s not again it’s not without risk but I think he’s a much better putter on PO Anna than what he is than what this number is showing so I would take a long long look at Gary Woodland
Um let’s see Stallings is a former Champion here I do want to make a mention of him rated a little bit lower but he is a former Champion here moving into the 6ks I do have a couple of names for you all this week that I do want to
Highlight um the first one first two are both at 6,800 backto back in my rankings 17th and 18th Joseph bramlet and Doug gim Joseph bramlet much more so in the driving the off the tea um aspect 45th in irons is it terrible third in distance especially on Long courses he
Hits plenty of greens it’s actually really good with these par 3es as well off the te around the green his big issue has been the par fives you have to take advantage of those here at Tory Pines he has not taken advantage of par fives as well as he should and and he
Can struggle a little bit with the PO putting 109th and three putt avoidance 91st total putting on PO Ana so playing Joseph bramlet is a play on all the ball striking Talent um but I think it’s a worthy look at 18th Doug gim look very
Rarely do you get Doug gim as a good putter on a at a course or on a Surface he’s top 25 on PO Ana so just just like Hadi just like Tony fenale Justin Thomas these Luke list these guys that traditionally aren’t good Putters whenever they pop with the putter you
Got to take notice so I’m really advocating for you to take a long look at at Doug gim this week based on the fact that the the ball striking is always going to be there 22nd with the irons but the putter is also there 22nd
With the putter now he’s not long but it still hasn’t pre prevented him from performing well at Tory Pines in the past in two to two or three attempts at it as well and you see even despite the lack of length he is third in par fives
In this field also very good around the green seventh and bogey avoidance I know the number is just off your screen but you can see the coloring seventh and bogey avoidance there’s a lot to like with Doug gim so I’ve been coming into the 6ks for these two players quite a
Bit in my um in my builds I really don’t mind it that’s why I’ve I able to use you know three of the four players in the 10ks use several players in the nines because I don’t mind coming at down to 6,800 for bramlet and for Doug gim the last name that I
Will mention in the 6ks if I can find him uh how we feeling about Shank uh okay I suppose um where is Adam shank 73 he rid it out extremely well he’s been middling in terms of success here now putting on paa Ana is is very strong the irons are very strong analytically
Everything looks good for Adam shank I have a little bit of reservation in the sense that he’s not the best with these par fives and the around the green is subpar which I know he’s supposed to be a good around the green player but in long rough it’s been gosh dang it it’s
Been a little subpar I’ve got some concerns but at 5 and a half% he’s certainly worth the gamble you know just like a Michael Kim I like Sam Ryder quite a bit Justin Su is certainly speculative uh I wouldn’t blame you if you used shank over Justin Su I just like a couple
Other players um more than more than him subpar is good though well U terrible phrasing then um suboptimal how about that P sub optimal um I just I I it’s kind of more of a gut feeling considering you know he was 11th by the pure numbers not a lot
Of people seem to be gravitating toward him at least per fantasy national uh I’m just a couple of different places again you know Michael Kim Sam Ryder I can understand if you like him more than Justin sub but I’ll go with Justin Su and the elite putter on PO
Anna um but the last name that I want to give you all in the um 6ks is at 6600 again I don’t I’m not in love with it I much prefer these other two players in the 6ks but at 6600 anytime you’re talking about long and difficult courses you kind of got to
Think about Kevin Streelman I know the putter on PO isn’t great but the irons are very good greens when it’s difficult he’s an around the green specialist so if you think the around the green is going to be even more of an important factor than I’ve given
It just like Keith Mitchell Kevin shman generally performs his best when it’s difficult Tory Pines is historically difficult so I do want to make a mention of Kevin Streelman and I will casually mention Robbie Shelton he is three for three the past five years at making the cut here nothing too spectacular in
Terms of upper in finishes but he is three for three I figured I would mention him but he rated out much lower than Kevin shillman but there’s a look at the price board where our fellow contestants seem to be gravitating towards some of the um players that we
Could pivot to uh and how they look analytically let’s start making some lineups uh we’ll start with tiers contest and then move into uh making some classic lineups and of course if you are are watching live uh I ask that you fill out the poll question for the evening which player returning from
Injury you most confident in this week Daniel burer at 8,100 Wills Al torus at 8,000 gar Woodland at 7,000 MCN at 6,900 all right for those who play tiers contests tier one we have Xander Patrick kley and col more Kaa this is a two-man tier oh I think I’m going to have to
Stick with uh stick with what I said in classic lineups going through the price board I’ll go ahead and choose Colin morawa I will take uh I don’t think Xander is a bad choice but I’ll take col morwa I think kley is a very very clear
Third vot is aloris but it’s not showing up uh I it I it is on my end at least if you there is one vote for Wills alores um so um that that that’s probably yours p uh but yeah we’ll go more in tier one tier two maxom Sun Jay
Lud Gober Jason day and minwu Lee um to me kind of a threepers tier between jday sunjay and maxom um jday appears to be the most unique so if you’re concerned at all with uh duplicating your tiers contest you might want to think about Jason day I think I’m probably going to go
Sunjay in tier two but it’s pretty close between all three of them I like all three of them but I think I’m leaning slightly towards sunjay in tier two tier three Tony fenale Eric Cole Keegan Bradley Harris English sep straa I really like sep straa but it’s no doubt for me pretty
Far and Away Clear Choice for me I’ll take Tony fenale in tier three one of my top plays for the entire week in general tier four we have yeah okay seah tala hii Nikolai hoard Justin Rose Adrien Moran Daniel burger and Christian bazo again kind of the halves to have
Knots in this tier I really like sahit tagala love Hideki Rose is fine although I’m imagine he’ll probably be one of the more chalky options if you’re willing to take a gamble I think [ __ ] or hoard could be very interesting this week um but for me just give me
Hideki um my probably my favorite play of the week uh if he does not play well I will probably lose because I’m going to be overweight on Hideki based on the fact that he has played Tory Pine so well he putts po Ana pretty darn well so
I really like keki seit toal is a very very good choice I just think I’ve been too uh popular among my other choices in here to take sahit to Gala so give me Hideki seah is a pretty close second and then I’ll make rose third in tier four tier
Five Wills Tes Shane Lowry Keith Mitchell Luke list Stephan joerger Ben Griffin and Patrick Rogers again three to four choices in here that I really like zorus should be pretty good luk list love Luke list this week Patrick Rogers should be pretty good uh as well
So for me in tier five considering I gained a little bit of uniqueness um by taking Hideki over sahita Gala I don’t think we are having to take the most unique option in here we could take luk list if we wanted to I think I’m going to take will zorus
Though uh take a chance on him you know rounding into full health he’s generally played pretty well here I think it’s a pretty stable selection luk list would be the um kind of the All or nothing I mean he could miss the cut or he’s won two
Years ago so I think he’s the more High upside play I’ll take the stability I think with Zat Taurus then lastly tier six we have chessen Hadley Matt Wallace Gary Woodland sh Kim Scott Stallings Nick Hardy and Nicholas lindheim um yeah why not I’ll just take
Gary Woodland I’ll I’ll I’ll take a big chance on this tiers contest normally I talk about the withdrawal risk being too much in a tiers contest these guys have played this tournament so well and seeing them make the cut complete four rounds of play you know as recently as
The MX starting to believe a little bit in these guys so I’ll take Woodland in tier six if you are too afraid of the withdrawal risks probably sh Kim Scott Stallings wouldn’t be too bad either I suppose but it’s probably sh Kim in tier six if you’re scared of the withdraw from Gary
Woodland and it’s probably luk list if you’re scared of uh Wills aloris not being fully 100% but this tier construction will go Colin morawa I’ll go sunj and tier two I go t Tony fenale and tier three not particularly close tier 2 is is very close between jday
Sunj and Max hom I will go slightest of slight leans to sunj but all three of them I really like tier three Tony fenale not particularly close tier four I’ll go hii I don’t blame you for going sagala at all also kind of like rose but
I’ll go Hideki tier four tier five I’ll go willz Taurus luk list is also a very fine option and then in tier six I’ll go with Gary Woodland sh Kim is also a fine option all right so now with tiers out of the way let’s go ahead and start
Making some classic lineups and see if we can’t duplicate what seem to be some uh chalky lineups and see how we can maneuver around that so if we’re going to build these chalky lineups look uh col more Cara is the most projected owned player per fantasy National
21% um going to be used quite heavily I would think and at the bottom here you do have a few players in the 6ks mainly Joseph brandlin at 75% got Johnny Vegas at 65% getting some use uh in the 6ks but really our fellow contestants seem to be um bottoming out
At uh Michael Kim at 73 or Taylor pendrith at 74 so I’m going to try to put this at Taylor pendrith it will not leave them a whole lot of room to maneuver uh just over 8,000 per player elsewhere in the sevens um you’ve got Jagger 10 and a
Half not the most Luke list getting a whole lot of love here so probably Jagger luk list and then 8,400 per player uh looks like something to the effect of probably sahit tagala and will zuris leaving a 100 on the table um you could move this around maybe a little
Bit maybe they come off of um well I mean tagala is the second most most projected on player so that kind of makes some sense we are at just under 16% with this lineup pretty darn chalky I would imagine this is going to be duplicated several times especially
Since it appears that the majority of at least members of fantasy National aren’t comfortable going into the 6ks if they’re going to build a more balanced build maybe they’re not going all the way into the 10ks um uh let’s see we’ll start them with maybe ludvig Oar Keegan
Seah uh then 7500 per let’s see Wills Alor Luke list is definitely in this so try to get a couple other uh names in there maybe Justin Rose oh no that’s a 6600 um I mean really it’s just kind of the area of the price board that um players have
Been gravitating towards let’s let’s throw Rosen instead of tagala we used him in the last one um uh let’s see Michael Kim at 10 8,000 is Will Al torus it just kind of is what it is that alus a little bit more unique considering we came off of sahit Gala to
Get to Justin Rose who’s also getting some some attention uh this might be a more balanced build look a chalky look a little bit under 15% you know going into the 9ks however they see fit you know lud VI Oar sunj maybe and then coming down to Keegan see
Tagala moving on down to Rose and zat Taurus luk list and then Michael Kim or Taylor pendri or or maybe Stephan joerger so with that how are we going to maneuver around all this chalk well I’ve been doing it with the 6K plays that I mentioned Joseph brand. G
So I’m going to try to build you a balanced build first that is going to be unique going to be a little bit more difficult to do um but I’m going to start with Tony fenale just I just love Tony fenale this week you see he’s not
Really all that unique uh he’s just a little bit off of Oar a little bit off of sunj in terms of ownership and then I’ve been kind of hitting the eights pretty pretty handily I like sahit Gala a lot he’s probably a little bit too chalky but sep
Straa um should be very very good this week lovei this week um it gives me you know I’m at 7,800 per player I can probably take a chance on a Hoy guard on an Adrien [ __ ] who is an allw World Talent we just don’t know if he’s going to take um
To the PO Ana this is you know very very small sample size but you know hitting greens when it’s difficult distance he’s got plenty of birdies are better when it’s difficult you know there’s a lot to like here with [ __ ] or even maybe hoard you could take a chance
With hoard I’m just a little bit higher on [ __ ] um but we’re still in that you know 7700 per player uh Patrick Rogers is somebody you could you could look at using who’s had a bit of success here um Ryan Fox is another um uh wild card I’m going to use Luke
List I just I’m all about some Luke list this week um going to creep our projected ownership up a little bit but to round this out I I I like OA batilla again a little bit higher in terms of projected ownership only because we we we’re using so much in
Luke list but if you come off a Luke list say you go to Patrick Rogers I mean you’re going to gain a whole lot of uniqueness I mean there’s your there’s your magic 10% um there’s your magic 10% and probably looking at a unique lineup duplicated
Maybe once or twice in your big gpps but you got one of the tournament favorites Tony and Tony fenale sep sta one of the Premier Putters at a tournament that rewards very good putting on PO Ana AI has always played pretty well here all World talent in [ __ ] Rogers a
California guy and batia a California guy so there’s a look at a balanced build that I think would be pretty pretty solid to submit but where I’ve been going I’ve been going into these stars and scrubs lineups again using these 10K plays I’ll go Doug gim this
Could easily be Joseph bramlet as well Doug ‘s just a little bit more unique and then I I’ll hit uh I mean we can still we can use col more Kawa uh if you want to be more unique use Xander but we can use col morawa we can use a Jason
Day or a Tony fenale this for me would probably be fenale but I’ll use day in this one we still have 7,800 per player we could probably try to squeeze in a hii or a hoard uh a will zotus if you want uh in fact let’s um
Let’s throw in Wills Al tus in this leaves us 7700 per player you know maybe you like Taylor pendri more than than I than I do you look at Michael Kim at 73 got several players in here in the b in the lower half of the sevens Sam
Ryder Justin s Even Adam shank who P mentioned earlier who rates out extremely well I’ll throw Adam shank into this I mean that leaves you 8200 which puts will here and then 82 is [ __ ] there’s a stars and scrubs lineup a little bit over 10% but more than likely probably
Unique thanks to Doug gim you got Wills Al Tores who’s played really really well here at Tori Adrien [ __ ] all World Player J day is a former Champion colore Kawa always played Tory Pines well there’s one construction of a um stars and scrubs if you’re willing
To get even a little bit more greedy um I’ll still keep Doug gim I’ll go Sam Ryder and Michael Kim who I’m very very high on now we can start you know putting in a very heavy um top end here we probably can go something like Xander Tony f
Now and 8800 is Harris English which I’m not there um you know I like see tagala it’s chalk I’m willing to eat a little bit more in terms of the projected ownership because of because of tagala and Xander together and fale much a little bit but again you know you’re
Coming into the sixk for a Doug gim or Joseph bramlet Sam ryers is less than 10% projected owned you can come off of Michael Kim if you want um you know if we come off of of Sam Ryder maybe we maybe we go to Justin Su that’ll bring down this percentage a
Little bit now we’re looking at 12% not 133% so you see how the more you’re willing to play around in the low sevens this week um again the Adam Shanks maybe the Michael Kim Sam Ryder Justin Su Gary Woodland at 7,000 I don’t hate uh at a sub 5% projected owned we throw
Him into this now we can you know perhaps move SE tala to A Min Le if you’re there we can move a phale to a a day or a ludvic Oar and you’re starting to lower your percentage uh projected own as well so there’s a look at a couple of different
Builds this week but if there aren’t any other questions I want to thank P for jumping in chat uh really appreciate it pretty good shout on Adam shank he rided out very well for me I’m just me personally a little bit gunshy31 daab I’ll be over in your
Substack chat uh here momentarily I just got to shut down the stream and and whatnot probably grab a little bit uh more water but I’ll be over in your chat here shortly but p and Gabe thanks for jumping in chat and thanks to everybody else out there who Tunes in watches
Listens and supports the channel uh by liking the videos commenting subscribing I always appreciate it love taking an in-depth look at at sports statistics giving you a statistician and data analyst view of some deep dive data and trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process uh really
Appreciate it for all the Wagers you’ve made this week for the farmers for all of the DFS contest you play this week for the farmers for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
