Ryan and Andy speed up their prep for this Wednesday’s start at Torrey Pines. They’ll go over the format, the two courses in use, the field, the odds, and who they like, and use the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole to build a course fit model live on the show.
0:00 Intro
2:00 Nick Dunlap
7:30 The Courses
12:30 Building a Model
41:35 Outright Bets
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Farmers Open Betting Preview: Diving into the Data to Find Best Bets
Everyone Welcome Back bsbs Golf here for the 2024 Farmers Insurance open preview we are dealing with a little bit of uh that’s I don’t know Andy you know the birdie fests I’m tired of some of the birdie fests this is always a nice break
Uh I like I like the Marine layer I like uh sunny Southern California here I like uh I like all that comes with Tory Pines I know some of the golf course haros out there are angry that all the holes look the same they’re all pretty fantastic
And pretty to me I don’t know we’re stuck here in the Midwest I like seeing uh Cliffs and oceans and uh beautiful Golf and it starts on Wednesday this week how we doing yeah two caveats uh early start which kicks Us in the ass I
Have to be spending a lot of time on golf today I got a lot done already I’m pretty happy with her mat I got my my model up on the site my course fit model we’ll build another one here on the show in a little bit using the rabbit hole um
I’ve got most of my matchup research done I have a couple I’m looking at I just need to dig in a little deeper before I actually bet them uh a couple books are not up in fact one book uh a maker of books do not have any matchups
For for the the US tournament just the European tournament right now is bugging me a little I like to look at those for sure but uh yeah know I like this course I like this tournament like you said we’ve had some really easy ones between
Hawaii and the two um State sides so far that have been just birdie Fest a lot of scoring this is a spot where we use this for Majors like this is a this is a tough course this is a long course and yeah everybody gets to play the North
Course once it’s a little bit of a rest bit um and that is considerably easier but if you make it through you make it to the weekend normal 36 hole cut again back to a little bit of normaly there you will you know you will obviously have to play that tougher course three
Times and then yeah next week right back to Three Tournament three three uh courses when we go up to what Pebble Beach Monterey spy glass for the uh AT&T too I’m pretty sure I have to double check I I did they did they they’ve done things so it’s funny I looked at they
Did in the co year yeah figure that out I I I feel like I heard that I know they did it during the co year they cut one of them out but I I have to double check see how it is with now being a signature
Event and yeah yeah one of one of the years they I was looking back at history of uh the AT&T for some reason the other day it’s like oh we used to play here but then they had to drop that one from the rotation because they weren’t letting uh African Americans be members
At that club and it was like 1990 or something it’s like oh that’s a that’s a tough look you don’t want to you don’t want your Club to be on Wikipedia for that man that’s that’s not great so just uh yeah if I owned a golf club I would
Let everyone in just for for the record I’m gonna put that out there into the space but yeah let’s get into I appreciate that about you allinclusive let’s uh let’s take a look at the two courses here can we talk Nick Dunlap real quick did you how much golf
Did you watch because it was kind of like the final no he trapped out he’s he’s well final stretch of the AMX was kind of in the middle of uh the shift of the two football games on Sunday and obviously you know as we saw the numbers on CBS everyone’s watching football for
Sure uh but pretty pretty wild uh for you know first time since 91 that we had an AM win you know and not like an a nothing amateur like this guy is is supposed to be a player but they you know kind of Sammy Burns won a lot of
Golf tournaments like to stare down Burns JT in the final group kind of hold everyone off Xander got hot as he does you know we love Xander from uh back of the pack Xander when there’s no smoke to be had like he go out and fire a 61 on
You but uh Nick Dunlap pretty cool uh to to have an Amer one I mean I thought that was pretty yeah I I thought about betting against him when I was out on Saturday and I’m I looked at it I’m just like at the price and then with the with
The setup of the course I’m like I I don’t think I can do it like if he is gonna do it it’s a place like this where it’s going to set up easy again tomorrow and it isn’t like oh man he got himself in a lot of trouble because we’re at you
Know a tough course we’re at you know a PGA Championship we’re at a US Open like uh that’s what we thought was going to happen to our guy Windam Clark it’s like oh my God there’s a hundred ways to get in trouble here and he hits that you
Know the way he hits t- shots we thought you know how’s he gonna stare down Rory and do this and obviously it was the second shots that were just average proximity of uh three Ines somehow but oh it was it was again a little squirely at the end and uh obviously Bernay Berns
Is the one who kind of choked it up for he ended up finished like sixth I think I know not great if you had him in a in a oneand done or if you’re looking to cash a top five price or you were probably laying like minus 20,000 on a
Top five pre- tournament I mean like pre- round four on burs not great so um yeah good for dlap I wonder if he won’t uh Go Pro sooner than later he’s going to for sure he he will but I wonder if he because he so there’s some speculating he’d Go Pro after the
Masters or some speculating he could go pro next week to go play it play at the uh AT&T make some money there instead so yet to be seen he uh took the week off heading back to Alabama hang out with family friends teammates he said so kudos to him and yeah we are
Due for a long shot not to win and that’s kind of that’s we’ve kind of Hit the perfect place for that because this is uh this is where cream does rise to the top here yeah yeah I mean the insane start to the season obviously with the
Absolute bombs I mean Chris Kirk winning uh the century I mean Chris Kirk was interesting that week um you know people were on him but we didn’t think Chris Kirk was winning a short field no cut designated event to kickoff the year then obviously you know people I had
Keegan Benny Anne was very popular and then we get Grayson Murray out of where off almost basically off the board and then obviously Dunlap as well where you know a lot of other popular plays are flirting at the top and come in you know
Kind of uh you know top five or top six in saman Burns’s case but yeah we are hopefully due for maybe some well I mean we’ll see I just entertaining golf uh is really what we want here and I think we typically see here uh at the farmers at
Pory Pines as you mentioned Wednesday golf super important so one and duns DFS lineups bets get them in today get them in tonight or get them in very very early tomorrow morning golf it’s still W Coast Golf like you have a little bit of time in the morning but and the
Inevitable Marine layer delay that comes on Wednesday morning because it just is a thing like if you were up for a Wednesday morning drinking game uh it is you know look at the number of times that that is said or referenced is very very common uh then we roll through and
All of a sudden we have beautiful sunny skies in California but yeah as Andy mentions um rounds one and rounds two golfers will split between the South and the North Course South course is the one that we you know we played the US Open here a handful of years ago 2021 I
Believe with the ROM win uh that was a to me was the uh Louie loss that was painful but again like yeah stretching like 7700 yards the other course is a very playable large green public golf course 7200 yards from the tips so you know you got to score and take advantage
There I think that matters if you’re playing like say show down you know we’ll you know DFS content will be on the site and we’ll have some more on that later for sure but uh you know you got to make your hay uh when you get
Your shot there on the easier course for sure and then again all the Big Boy golf rounds three and rounds four if you make the cut we’re back to 36 hoold cut is being played there obviously on the more difficult South course so again difficult um you see a large number of
Shots from 200 plus uh Fairways hard to hit uh and when you get in that spot where it’s like hey Fairways are hard hit that means they’re hard to hit for everybody um so in this spot where like look everyone needs to be playing a little bit From the Rough um these are
Smaller greens you know you really need bombers you and bombers too partially Andy you need that club head speed to whack yourself out of the thick rough when you’re 200 yards away as well so it’s kind of like you can play we’ve see some guys that have like maybe some
Really positive po splits that show up here that are maybe Fairway finders those guys there’s been a few at historically pop Sam Ryder last year was one of those guys that was like in the mix till late on Sunday you know Sam Ryder not a bomber we’ve seen some guys
That you know can can show here but man like I kind of want to lean that direction in terms of you know distance Club head speed all that stuff here because I think it matters more than anything else that we’re gonna get into today yeah I mean even the guys who are
Bombers are going to be hitting pretty long irons into some of these greens there’s some longer fours longer fives some even some threes we just like you’re gonna have to be good with length both with your driver and with your second shots I mean there are people who
Can play well here who are average off the tea but it’s just it’s you’re gonna you know there’s gonna have to be some making up for it down the road down the hole the guys who are below average of the te it’s going to be it’s going to be
Tough like you’re really gonna have to just do it you have to make everything on the green you’re going to have to hit so many greens your long irons are going to have to be perfect it’s just hard to make up for that here here obviously not
On the North course but if you want to compete if you want to be playing into the weekend if you want to play those you know those weekend rounds yeah you’re going to have to be a little longer off the te I don’t think I’ve seen anybody put together any sort of
Course fit model not use driving distance carry distance Club head speed something like that like you’re gonna have to you’re gonna have to have all of it yeah you have to scramble your face off too probably for anyone but especially if you’re kind of in that mode where Andy’s talking about where
You’re not the long guy off the tea uh just because you’re you’re going to be left uh again it’s just harder to hold these greens too and we have maybe a little bit of weather it’s you know I don’t know in terms of like some rain
That might make at least early in the week run out a little bit harder especially if you start on the south course so like we can look at that because we have that in the rabbit hole where like we get carry distance instead of actually just driving distance you’re
Like capturing you know carry instead of run out which I think is is pretty important too but um you know we have kind of some California guys here as well has been a little bit of a thing too and that’s actually interesting because that is the top of the board
From like the favorite standpoint or these are all I wouldn’t say local guys but these are California guys you get that like afternoon Bloom on the polo greens as well which I think is a thing it’s a little bit harder to putt on so navigating that having some familiarity
There whether that is being from California or a lot of experience here I think we find that like course history has shown to be a little bit of a thing some past success navigating this track I think has mattered a little bit too I’m not overweighting that per se
Actually my betting card at the top is not strong on guys that have uh come here and had a ton of success in the past but I do think it matters like if you’re looking for tiebreakers or matchups or you know whether that’s uh whatever you’re doing in building a card
I do think it matters a little bit what are your thoughts there yeah I’m not a big you know I’m not a big course history guy never have never will I’m going to look at it a little it’s more of a nudge a tiebreaker like you said
I’m just I agree it’s not been a thing I I would use something more like hey there’s five courses that are similar in a similar part of the country you know West Coast Swing Florida swing courses with a lot of water danger I would use something like that just because it
Gives you a little bigger sample whereas like just only playing on Tor it’s hard for me to to get behind too much of that y all right I agree what should we uh should we play around and uh build a model do some stuff yeah let’s uh let’s
Build a model today let’s do it um before we do that I want to let you know there are some uh very easy ways to get access to what we’re doing here at bets bir’s Gulf uh we have partnered with our friends over at Vivid piic and uh Vivid
Is probably a familiar name to you Vivid Seats uh the parent company here your secondary ticket Market Vivid picks is a u DFS style pick them site similar to some other ones you’re probably familiar with that have been around for a bit uh you can sign up use the links here in
This article and you can go over to bsports golf.com if you are watching on YouTube now this is live and up on the screen this is a article you could click on there are links here or you can simply go to your you know Play Store wherever your app store download Vivi
Pic use promo code bets Spurs golf new depositors using our link uh and you could do deposit and play for five bucks they will match your first deposit up to 250 so this is something that you think hey I want to play around with this these are fun and I’ll tell you honestly
Vivid is a really cool site there’s a social aspect to it too like if you follow us on Vivid like you can get boosted odds we’re gonna have boosted plays specific for bets’s golf on here as well so it’s a cool site they will match your first deposit up to 250 bucks
So deposit 250 you’ll have 500 in your account but if you just want to essentially use the loophole to get a cheaper subscription to bets Spurs golf $5 deposit and play using this information uh and you can go ahead and do that and get an access to all that we
Do at bet scol for 2024 for just that $5 now again it’s only available in in like 28 States they’re all listed here if that’s not a state for you just DM us on Twitter betsports golf you can hit up Andy or I specifically as well we will
Do our best to get you we’ll get you a promo code uh the best promo code that we can offer now again we can’t get you a $5 subscription for the year at betsports golf this is an affiliate deal the Affiliates make up for some of this
Stuff but again we will be very generous in our deal yeah they uh I will put a link I will put a link to this in the in the the show notes I’ll put a link to this in the YouTube so you can find this article here take advantage of this and
Obviously like you said it’s five a yearly subscription normal price 200 bucks so if you want to if you can if you’re in one of these states if you can quickly drive to one of these states if you can have some somebody else log in
For you in one of these states and you know send them your send them your driver’s license in the mail what whatever it takes you think it’s worth five bucks is pretty cheap for a $200 membership like I said I’ll put a link to this in the show notes I’ll put a
Link to this article that has all the the links and how to get you through it right there in the YouTube description as well and yeah let’s pop over to the site take a look at the hole of rabbits that’s not what we’re going to call it that’s a terrible
Way to phrase it what do you think nunar oh did you did you lose your voice again oh you’re not you got to try to talk so I can do a do a clap check no I can’t hear you switch over to switch over to the
Thing I can’t stall for you if you don’t change it I’m done talking about vivot I don’t know if you can hear me never mind all all right well I built my model I can talk about some of the key stats while Nunan tries to figure out his Tech
He’s much older than me sometimes it’s an issue with this um I will be I have mine up there if you see that the blue expert rankings thing you can click on that you can find my model oh I think I heard something yeah I think we’re good all right there
You’re back I thought you fixed it I thought I fixed it Andy I bought a new thing like I got I got the world’s first mic I got get a new mic I was so excited that I fixed it middle talking you just cut out yeah I see you your face your
Face moving and I’m like oh man this is not it’s not great sorry folks uh anyway no worries go to Vivid Vivid picks Romo code bsur golf go on the site find that uh anyway let’s play around this is the rabbit hole if you’re seeing this for
The first time this is a uh officially licensed PGA stat database uh with really unique stats some stats that you are used to some stats that you can’t find or use or model anywhere else and we will uh kind of mess around and uh see what comes out and uh what we should
Be looking for this week so um yeah we talked about uh we typically when we’ve done this so far Andy I have built kind of a baseline with Strokes gain total to make sure that we are you know not missing the mark on the top of the board
Um I want to get your thoughts I did this on Monday on the uh the preview show by myself which again I did not fall out that thank God I didn’t fall by myself because I wouldn’t have had anyone to save me but um I talked about needing
I think Strokes game te to Green is kind of the better way to go about it here uh and my thought process there is that um I would instead of T the green I would typically default to ball striking but I do think around the green and scrambling
Matters a little bit here so I think T green captures that in a better way because I want to isolate uh I want to isolate putting in terms of like Po putting so uh what are your thoughts on that yeah and I’m fine still just using total for mine because
It’s just I’m using such a big sample size that it’s going to capture rounds where you putt didn’t putt well rounds where you putted well and I still did put in poet putting into my model so I’m fine with whatever but yeah ball striking T to Green total whatever you
Want to use you don’t have to use an anchor if you don’t you you know if you go real granular that is the one issue that I when I make my models when I do my course fit modeling in the rabbit hole I like to do something like that
Because if you just let’s say you build a model with like Club head speed putting on POA over the last 12 rounds and like you know going for the green percentage those are such Niche you know those are such Niche um stats that you’re you might like oh like moraca is
50th in my model and kle is 80th or something you know you’re gonna have some of those top golfers that you know while they’re doing a lot of things right some of those little minute things that you’re looking at might not have been great for them over whatever sample
You’re using so I I don’t like I don’t like the top of the board guys to drift too far so I just use a little percentage of my waiting on you know a something big sample size and something standard like total just total Strokes gain but whatever you want to do I don’t
Want to build my model again I’ve built mine I have mine let’s uh you rip it we can get kind of uh weird with this one I just to walk people through very quickly you can see here how to navigate this is some things that you can do if you want
To click into like specifically uh the season you can mess around with some previous years um we’re obviously defaulting here to The Strokes gained view uh but you can mess around with a lot of other things here floor ceiling is something that we just came out with
Which I think is really exciting we’ll Circle back to that you can see you can mess around here uh you can mess around with the time frame along with here uh below that the rounds played have to make sure you’re getting a sample size that makes sense to you if you want to
Mess around with the region of the course get very specific statewise now again some of this to me is overfitting um it’s not something that I would use but if that’s something that is useful to you go for it um course type is an option for you as well if you want to
Find out specific course history you can go in here and pick a course uh you know again you want to mess around the time frame to make sure you’re capturing a sample that is large enough to be worthwhile we default to draftking scoring here if you’re playing DFS
FanDuel is an option for you as well uh you can set a min minum rounds right here too to also make sure you’re eliminating any of the small sample variants for guys that uh don’t play often maybe they’re corn fairy guys uh anything like that as well now again not
Just these display options but you can go in here in the filter by condition situation could be quite overwhelming there are more conditions than you could possibly ever need but they are available to you and you can chop this data up in a way that you cannot do
Anywhere else you want easy difficult or average scoring conditions cool we also give you very easy and very difficult uh also very short and very long um anything you could possibly want here the green service will get into uh Fairway Services whatever you want to do
You can get down here you’ll see some stuff here driver heavy less than driver you know driver heavy could be a thing that we did this week um all these different things you want to get scrambling on Short Grass scrambling through like thicker rough uh all that
Is available for you here uh on the rabbit hole on B’s golf so all right I like TAA green Andy you built your model I’m going to put TAA Green in here because I think it makes a ton of sense we are capturing last nine months last
36 holes you could see here in the blue folks uh this is going to give you number of rounds that we’re looking at and actually the parentheses is is Strokes gain the shot link data captured rounds as well um so I’m going to do this here all you need to do is simply
Hit the plus adds it to your uh condition you can put notes here if you want I’m going to skip that for the speed of the show um and then let’s get into some of the putting stuff so let’s let’s do po putting we’re gonna have to mess around
With the sample to make sure we capture that let’s go green surface HOA what do you think should we capture you see here nine months we’re not we haven’t done anything with po there’s not a lot of Po in the uh summer and fall so yeah you’re going to have to
Go to a bigger sample three four five years something like that to capture some rounds okay let’s go three years let’s set a minimum round of uh 16 rounds some guys that have at least played a little bit and we’re looking to see Strokes gains putting see this
Sample captures 57 guys in the field so maybe we go a little bit lower see if we can extend that a little bit I don’t want to uh let’s get this 81 it’s not bad it’s like the top half guys people that matter guys that we may
That matter so uh m m at the top here uh which makes sense California yep y Justin Su same thing I don’t know will Gordon’s origin but uh you know that’s that’s interesting because will Gordon definitely a bomb and and gouge guy let’s add this here all right
So uh now let’s get into you can see here I got a red dot and I got this little thing here it tells me green surface POA that tells you you have a condition make sure you turn it off so you don’t do all the rest of your day
With the same condition on so let’s get into some driving distance specific stuff uh let’s get off the te here now we can do a few things that are specific and things you can’t do elsewhere uh we can model total driving total driving is a very noisy stat but I
Think tells a story in some spots total driving you can simply hover over this and it tells you here what that stat is it’s a combination of rankings uh which in of itself is probably why it’s not a great stat uh but it tells you about the combination
Of where someone ranks in driving distance and driving accuracy good drivve percentage uh gives you a sense of um do they get the ball do they get a green and rag uh when the ball is not in the Fairway uh I think is somewhat interesting this week uh which is
Something you maybe a different week we can talk about that I don’t know what your thoughts there talked about distance from the edge of the Fairway and spots where we want to hone in on accuracy that is not this week uh what we can get you here is both driving
Distance basic driving distance and then carry distance which I think let’s just take a look wear I don’t because you mentioned so you mentioned weather and I was about to correct you because there’s not going to be any weather it’s looking actually very nice but um I think what you were alluding to
Once you finally said it is it’s rained a bunch prior to the tournament and it’s very it’s wet so the the grounds are wet the conditions are wet it’s going to be soft s and we might not see the roll out because like I said we’re not going to
Get heavy winds either so it’s not going to just dry out as uh as well as it might if we did see some some high winds in the area and yeah carry distance might be a little more predictive or a little more prescriptive than what we’re just going to look at driving distance
When we’re looking for bombers here yeah no good good point and you see just looking at these columns together carry distance here and then driving distance like you know there’s the guys at the top from a carry distance Point are here as well but I think not capturing some
Of that roll out um I think is important and let’s look at the inverse just to see what happens there in terms of guys that are long on driving distance but I like luk list which is interesting luk list driving distance uh he likes to get that roll out he’s more actually middle
Of the pack in terms of carry distance which I think is interesting uh the bright green bar across the screen for ludvig uh yeah is I mean look long and straight is gonna play a lot of play places uh that this tends to maybe be
One of them uh there is uh no shades of red on Lou Big’s driving uh bar here which is I think pretty pretty interesting um yeah so I think because it is unique and something you can do nowhere else but I also do think it matters this week so we’re going to do
Carry distance specifically We’ll add this to our model and go from there um something else that you can do which is I think really wild you go down to miscellaneous metrics here U we’re not going to put it in in um Club head speed the fact that you can model Club head
Speed uh I think there’s probably a pretty strong uh Chris gup that checks out yeah but I mean gup was right there just now in our uh in our carry distance right minwoo cam champ will Gordon again like this is a very strong and again The Club at speed
Thing is like Yeah Toast toasty uh yeah he’s this is this is interesting too Apex height uh again these are some specific things ball speed you’re not going to find anywhere else that you can actually put into a model in way it’s uh to you know spit out who you should be
Looking at this week so uh pretty cool stuff so yeah we’re not gonna add Club at speed to be double counting I think from carry distance but again um I think the not just the the reason Club at me is interesting is because you’re going to be whacking out of the thick rough
Here a little bit no matter what right um I think of the gosh what was the year a couple years ago 19 18 it was the year that like Lehman just sprayed it all over with the yard and he sprayed it so bad that like he was into like where
Everyone was standing he was actually avoided he was so bad off the te that he avoided the thick rough because he was in all the matted down stuff and and just scrambled his face off and one here so like you don’t have to be uh super accurate here but getting it down uh
With distance and Club speed is going to matter so it’s available in the miscellaneous metrics all right um we got teer green we got the putting we got driving distance we do have have a large plurality of approach shots from 200 plus do we want to to do anything from
An approach standpoint do we want to do anything from a proximity standpoint Pro probably what I what I ended up doing because greens and regulation is a predictive stat as much as you know golf can be have predictive stats with how goofy it can get with the huge
Fields but uh it’s a place where greens and regulations are tougher to find uh the percentage of guys finding the greens in regulation is lower than your average course CU it’s tough so I went to the filtering and I like you said I picked tough scoring long or I picked
Long or very long courses and you know because it it doesn’t matter how the setup is there might be some dog legs that make it even worse but I picked some places where long or very long was the classification and then I put Greens in regulation for
Like the last two years at long courses it was kind of what round roundabout way to find accuracy and you know accuracy more accuracy than anything I guess from you know long irons is what I did okay I like that let’s let’s take a look I did not do
That in mind so this is a this is a nice way to capture it to uh let’s see here let’s go back a a little bit longer let’s see if we can capture 50 rounds yeah and that’s the thing whenever you get more specific yeah you
Got to think about that like go when you start looking at like the last three weeks of you know courses with uh bent grass it’s just [ __ ] ain’t going to happen because we’ve been that’s you know we weren’t in the midwest we weren’t up North so yeah you’re gonna
Have to go bigger samples for this for sure all right yeah so if we go you know we’re getting a mix of uh you know a we’re not going to get a massive sample on Kevin U we’re not going to get a mass sample on but I think that makes sense
And checks out um so I think this is actually pretty viable pretty viable stab alot Tauruses perform well I mean morawa is at the very top uh which I think makes a lot of sense too so yeah let’s uh let’s add this greens and
R uh but we are long and short or I’m sorry long and and very long courses over the last 50 rounds uh I like it I like it um all right what else should we do do you think that that’s like I think we both kind of agree though less is
More sometimes in the modeling standpoint uh you start to like more stats you get the more convoluted it gets yeah I like to keep it five or six things at the most you know yeah you can always check where you’re at if you click click the green button up
Top it’ll open a new tab and you if if you forgotten where you’re at it’ll See it’ll show you what you’ve put into to this point so we do only have the four I know what what else matters so maybe something scrambling something around the greens I think that would be the
Last key to the puzzle here yeah that’s I mean kind of captured in t green a little bit but we can isolate it um other thing too I want to show folks is that’s available we’re in the approach window you can actually go to Fairway or rough specific approach this
Is where you’re going to see the proximity rounds uh proximity ranges I’m sorry as well which I think is is pretty cool again I’ll turn these filters off uh again this will you know recalibrate what my uh my rankings are because it’s going to rank them based off of the
Conditions that I have on we’ll turn those off but yeah if you want get into specific proximity ranges say 200 plus which I think matters this week you can see here this is where you get into all of those uh little buckets so which I think is is pretty important let’s just
Take a look and see who’s here Fairway 200 plus last 50 rounds or uh if available so you know rayu we’re not getting that large of a sample uh but some of these other guys we are which I think is is interesting to see if you
Want to see it from a who’s good at hacking it out of the rough we don’t have to add this but let’s just take a look and see who is there and you can add these and and put them in your model so you have them but you don’t have to
Give them any weights per se which you think is an option here too sunjay uh Carl Yan playing some decent golf ludig again here top three again we saw ball speed we saw all those things Club head speed H for for ludig I think this is interesting as well so uh but
You mentioned scrambling so let’s go here and look at some uh some scrambling I want to show people floor ceiling we’re not going to put it in I don’t know what your thoughts are Andy on the floor ceiling stop I think it’s probably more DFS relevant than betting probably
It is funny week like I’m glad we have it finally I’m glad we’re done with the dev on that but it’s not a great week to use it outside of DFS I think yeah so what this is is g to give you a sense of you know how consistent someone is or
What are their ceiling outcomes in these Strokes gain buckets so you you we hear people talk about Spike putting weeks we want to find guys that have uh you know spiked putting weeks and they’re like really good teer green we should hone in on that guy and if he has a spiked
Putting week we’ll be good to go what does that mean how often does that happen uh you can find out now here on the rabbit hole so uh this is defaulting Strokes gain total if you go specifically again you can mess around with any of The Strokes gain buckets but
Say you go putting specifically uh how often uh you can see where they rank or how frequently from a rounds gained percent standpoint are they gaining one stroke two three all the way up to five Strokes putting uh and how often does that happen so like you want to see
Spiked putting weeks this is last 50 rounds uh Matt Wallace has some spiked putting weeks um Dylan woo Sam Ryder seah big spike punting week guy um you know how often does that happen how often they gaining at least a stroke or at least field average to give you a
Sense of their floor right minwoo 70% % seah Eric Cole great putter um you know look Grio and not a guy that we would typically think Grio field average uh pretty frequently on the on with the flat stick these days which is pretty wild Keegan kind of fix some of those
Bugaboos as well which I think this is interesting so this tells you a story around consistency and Spike ceiling options again more probably DFS Centric but uh yeah really cool tool again something that you can actually mess around with and again I think is uh unique thing that you can do here right
Now and I nowhere else all right uh let’s mess around with the round the green yeah let’s find some scrambling finish up uh finish up that last little piece and see where we’re at yeah so I always get torn on how to mess around with the around the green stuff
Uh around the green proximity I think is interesting I you know I ha in general I don’t use it very often I know so that’s the tricky part I feel like I’m going to talk you out of it we’re going to stay with the four because we have a caption
In Tina green but the one thing I do think is cool that I think matters in some spots like say we’re at Augusta scrambling Short Grass that matters a lot uh you have to be able to like yeah you have those runoffs and you got like
This place here at Tori we have more of the like thick apron around the green so scrambling From the Rough is something that I think I would want to capture versus scrambling from the short grass so again the ability to break these down uh to find something that makes a lot of
Sense to where you are specifically having that optionality I think is pretty cool so uh you can just capture basic scrambling I’m kind of with Andy here I think it’s a little noisy and I do think we have it already so I’m going to just we’re going to go with the four
That we got G pull this in hit that green button up top uh and you can see you got to give your report a name uh we will do bsw’s golf Tor this for the show and this will be saved we’ll turn this on for you you
Have it in the expert column uh and you can see you scroll down I have a ton of different stuff down here I got some like Baseline driving stuff uh you want to run like a coar fit model or just you know recent history model you can just
Have these saved as many as you’d like uh you I have an off the te model here and then you can just run them every week you aren’t limited to the number that you can uh Save which is I think really cool you can also go back here
Too you want to download this into a CSV chop it up and build a bunch of them and weigh them on your own you can do that here as well which I think is uh is pretty sweet I like that that that is you know that
Is my part that I like I made sure that was my little little uh big push from you contribution like man I just want to be able to put this in the spreadsheet so I can work on matchups with it yep love it how do we want away this
Stuff um again did we only end up with four we only ended added one more I didn’t know I didn’t want to add scrambling I vetoed it because we’re te to Green I think it’s already captured all right TD green has to be heavy because we’re we’re carry that’s kind of
Our anchor if you want to call it 3540 something like that soon as we have a smaller amount of things let and then ranking them from there I’d probably you know greens and regulation be probably keep that at 25 then you’re at 65 you need 35 to go so you probably have a
Decide which one’s more important carry and I think it is carry I do too I’m GNA go 20 and 15 for those too yeah I was going to go 2510 but unless okay no that’s fine putting putting is I always waigh putting yeah I want to capture it I want
To get a sense of what it is but like I I don’t want to um you know this is again another thing where no offense like I think Sam I’ll use Sam Ryder again like Sam Ryder’s gonna like I like Sam Ryder this week probably bet on him
To like t40 again but I don’t want Sam ryer coming out eth in this model um now he’s been great T the green he’s been great with approach so maybe he will either way but I don’t want to like overweight the putting stuff and I think
This does a better job at capturing it so I’m going to save this uh for our sake we have this and this will spit out again you’ll have the ability to kind of go through it uh and just save and generate it let’s see what we got love how fast this is we’re
Streaming we’re streaming I got Tech issues and this still pops out quick so love to see it all right so I had Doug I had Doug pop up on mine too and the the joke was you know if Doug gim could hit from the ladyes teas uh probably wins this because he is
Sam RP see that huge red there too like he’s just not long he doesn’t have the carry so good elsewhere though and I always feel good I mean again like I’m not trying to build a model that spits out the top of the board at the top of
The model but man it just makes sense right like like there’s a reason that they’re there and all four of these as we talked about at the top are California guys that like have coarse familiarity uh I mean like again like Xander is a spot where everyone’s been
Begging Xander to win I think he’s gonna win forever he’s at the top of the betting board H is your defending champ morawa has played really well here has putted really well here which is not typically a morawa thing kley hasn’t really performed super well here uh but
Like it’s Patrick kley he belongs to the top here uh which makes a ton of sense so uh the rest of it is very interesting uh Taylor pendrith love to see it Doug gim as you mentioned sjay we saw sanj and some other stuff that we didn’t put
In the model in terms of like 200 plus proximity Sanjay pop uh popped really well there too Eric Cole’s playing Great Golf um you know intered to see the greens and R stuff not great for Eric Cole uh Sam Ryder who mentioned you know like fighting to make sure Sam Ryder is
Not in the top 10 he still is in the top 10 Sam Stevens was a guy that we went to the well on quite often last year uh during the summer and is actually playing decent and I’m not surprised to see him here as well so yeah Adam shank
Hits it a mile uh Matias Schmidt popped really high for me yesterday when I ran my H pre- look first look on the show which is interesting so yeah you know minwu is a guy that we have a tough you know we don’t have a ton of PGA Centric
Data on minwu because he’s played on the Asian tour a lot he’s playing on the DP World Tour uh but again he’s uh makes sense for him to be you know towards the top here as well so uh yeah I uh I like what we did here and again like the
Model system Andy you could talk about how you use this for me it’s like I’m not I don’t think you run and bet the top of your model but man like when you get the Taylor pend the Doug gims the ryers and the Stevens populating I think
It forces you to dig in uh that’s a finishing position bet that’s a matchup uh and should lead you to maybe doing a little bit more of exploration yeah that’s where I usually take it from there I download it I do some comparisons on who I already liked
I have my Baseline rankings for the year um kind of use all of it to determine how I think a guys you know his range of outcomes is for the week because a lot of what I do is matchup stuff and you know the spike stuff maybe that is more
Of a an outright stuff and I let’s get into that a little is any of the names that I can see right now on the screen in your betting card I haven’t popped over to the Discord yet yesterday was kind of nutty I have had very little
Time for jibber jabber yeah I’ve bet four rights um and one of them is here in the top 10 um I I mean if I lead you a little bit I think you might be a little surprised of who it is um but yeah one of these is uh on my Ben card
Currently give me a clue uh it’s pendrith it’s pendrith yeah wasn’t that hard I know you like him yeah well look I mean look he’s playing really good golf uh you did not play well at the American Express but like T10 at Sony before that uh really nice swing season Shriner T3 uh
You know Maya KOB L cardinel where they went uh T15 uh Bermuda T8 he’s like playing really good golf now again like didn’t play well last week in the American Express could not make a putt uh but the approach game has been a little bit more
Consistent and he can hit it a mile and that helps so uh you know he’s probably again it was I got a 110 on pendrith I think like mostly we’re looking at like 90s or so right now uh let me see where he’s at currently so like part of it was
Like I liked him I knew he was going to show well for me in in modeling no you can still get some big numbers on pendri he still Chris is 140 120 is still out there so yeah I mean that the 110 is did not I did not move the market with my
With my Taylor pendri bet uh but again probably a better finishing position play uh I liked him uh again like the form so it’s not like he’s winning golf tournaments as of late uh but yeah he’s he’s playing some decent golf and you know again like we’re riding we’ve seen
Guys flirt with the top of the board here at that number and it’s been all its one so far on the tour so took a couple stabs there and pendrith is uh is the only one here in the top 10 of the model that uh that made my betting card
But yeah where you looking at the top of the board so we got the California kids uh you know all all short all real short and again you’re not typically I’d be kind of stunned if you tell me all of a sudden that you’re starting with one
These guys that’s 12 or shorter because look basically across the board I mean like Xander at Chris is seven you can find a 10 out there uh Colin basically 11 10 and change across the board Max at 12 defending champ played well previously kley uh 12 here I think
Because he’s getting docked a little bit for not having the course history that some of these other guys are they’re somewhat in the tier by themselves uh on the betting board any of them in any consideration for you at all I mean not really I I it’s going to be hard for me
To differentiate the I I might not bet outrights it might just be top 10 top 20s here because it is it is like one homogeneous tier at the top for me between some of those guys at this point I don’t know if that if that makes sense
Like I just don’t have I don’t have a good way to split these guys up right now people seemed so mad yesterday about like the board and the prices and I get it like if if you have like you know you romanticize about you know 20 on Colin like it’s just just wasn’t
Going to happen here like I don’t know what people were expecting at the top of the board here in terms of like maybe people weren’t complaining about the top specifically but I was just like what did you expect like these they fit well they’re familiar with the course like I
Was expecting to not see a 15 on any of these guys and we didn’t never even really flirted with it so kind of makes sense to me if you had a where would you some of those some of those long and again I we we started the
Show saying like long shots might it might be the time to stop betting long shots but the guys that like we we did find here that Doug gim outside of the driving fits so well um Sam Ryder like you said with the putting Adam senson this kind of popping in everything I’m
Doing another guy I bet way too much ben Griffin if you want some bomb bomb bomb bombs um really like semi bomb maybe an Adam shank I guess he’s Part near 100 too so yeah for me it’s uhi is up there but his driving is not
What it once was I guess staka is someone I looked at around 50 who kind of matches up well here too and then yeah like you said t I can still get Taylor pendrith for 95 maybe I just have the one outright and now ride pendrith
With you let’s go did you Cole H what do you think of Cole it’s finally price where should be you know what Cole is to Me Andy this is where I strugg with Cole Cole was like uh you know we were we were early it was like we discovered the bands before like
They went public like we were going when they were playing uh you know 250 person show yeah uh in a small bar and then all of a sudden like now they’re selling out not necessarily like Arenas but like you know mini Arenas and everyone’s going Eric Cole everyone’s
Wearing Eric Cole t-shirts uh that’s kind of where feeling I’m like we were there early we were bet Eric Cole all the time at like 80 and like he wasn’t winning but like we were cashing tickets on Eric Cole it’s just hard for me to
Now pay 30 35 for a Cole without the win like that’s that’s the tough part yeah he’s 30 um Jagger 75 somebody I like you love that I’m sure always love Jagger um luk list I probably can’t bet even though he is he is a winner and he is a
Proven winner not too far up uh Michael Kim more than just a Twitter account great Twitter really nice showing uh I think he’s from San Diego I believe he went to Tory Pines High School he said I think I think he is like a very very local you know what
I’m gonna bet Michael Kim I’m gonna tell him to I did uh I I insulted him once online sort of something about like he couldn’t believe so many people liked his Twitter and I’m like it’s cuz you’re a better Storyteller than you are a golf like and I’m like and you’re a pretty
Good golfer and uh he’s like I don’t even know how to take this sorry backand a compliment but it I want to see if I catch a block nobody ever blocks me anymore but uh yeah I I like him this week I’m gonna bet him at like 80 90 to one why not
He’s uh he’s playing some of the best golf he has in a long time well you named another name that I bet uh we just talking about my two bombs I don’t know what to make of Luke list he’s actually like he’s actually 90 to
One too man yeah if you look over the last uh to look at the notes so like we know what it is he’s been like historically he’s awesome T green he always has been um it’s never been a concern distance is great we already checked on that over the past 36 rounds
He is positive Strokes game putting he is just Baseline putting no PO specific Vic splitz and now we know he’s played really well here for like I think we got a T25 a T10 and then the win uh the win was painful because we had Z that week
But in this field he’s 55th in Strokes game putting over the last 36 rounds um and he play a pots better on POA so it’s it’s really really he in 2022 he lost 89 Strokes per round on the green he was losing almost a stroke per round in the
Green now he is slightly above field average which is really cool so like I don’t know 90 I think is still it’s interesting um in a spot where it’s probably a better finishing position bet probably a better matchup Target but I don’t know like he playing good golf
He’s played well here all of a sudden can do the one thing that he could never do so yeah I think it’s worth a bet yeah I’m going these aren’t these aren’t the bombs that we’ve seen for the past few weeks these aren’t 400 to one
So I’m comfortable with my um I love the 90s I’m going because they’re all around they’re all around this this price range so I will take luk list you’ve convinced me I went I was looking while you were talking yeah it’s it’s sometimes you get
It in your head like this guy just never has puted and I mean he’s putting now so luk list Michael Kim who’s I guess an 80s he’s in the 80s I bet I could find a better price in him Adam shank Taylor pendrith all 80 or 90 to one right right
In there I’m going to go hunt those prices out and bet those this afternoon that is go down shank was 12th in the model that we just ran should have a meeting in I have a meeting in like 10 minutes I’m gonna bet him during that meeting yeah there you go
Productive uh two my two top of the board place um ish because I do think we’re gonna get to a spot where like we kind of talked about it we don’t love the price of the top four but it feels like maybe a spot where like the cream
Rises to the top and you do have some like elite players I played ludvig at 22 um he just again like you haven’t seen the like debutants win here often the last one we did was John ROM um who I don’t know I don’t want to do that
To ludvig and say that he’s going to be John ROM but like I don’t think we think ludvig is going anywhere I think he’s going to be no uh in the Xander kentley tier he already is in a lot of ways uh and look in terms of like thinking about
Long and straight all right you know we joke long and straight plays anywhere like where does it matter like where does long and straight like benefit you more than anywhere else probably here prepory I think so so like 22 even though like I would wanted to give a
Little bit of like tiebreaker to guys that have played here before I don’t know man like early in his career when we first got him in like early in like his pro career it was really Rocky from an approach standpoint and like that hasn’t been the case he’s gained Strokes
In his past eight measured rounds we got some measured rounds unmeasured rounds in there where he’s played really well too so like feel like he’s figured it out a little bit um when I looked into the uh ceiling uh strok putting ceiling again we didn’t model it but he’s third
In the field in uh gaining three or more Strokes putting at 99.8% so like again I don’t have a large POA thing to lean on here but like we have seen him have some really hot putting weeks so lud at 22 and I think those are still out there like
I that is a matchup I circled because if you look just strictly at the modeling we’re using sample sizes that aren’t going to cover him properly right there’s just that’s always going to be an issue with these guys who are just coming up and it’s it didn’t used to be
As big of an issue because guys first coming up sucked ass they were you know the guys that lived in their cars for two years drove around to the mini tours barely made it off the goddamn McKenzie tour and then you know made three Cuts their first year we didn’t have these
Guys that just come out of nowhere and not not only some of the guys coming out of the kft but like college guys that are actually going and playing in college has been so good so it’s harder to grab some of the samples from those guys you just have to know and watch
Golf and have some context for like like I mean he went and played he went and played the damn Ryder Cup know some of these some of these young golfers have absolute ice in their veins at this point I mean last week is a great example of that going down the stretch
With some big names so I have a matchup and I don’t usually talk about matchups on here but this is a fun one because and as I mentioned the other week I you know I got some feedbacks from somebody said like hey I don’t I can’t bet it you
Know like I don’t have bookmaker I don’t have your wherever you’re betting in the goddamn offshores Andy so I tried to I found one last week for the newsletter that was on FanDuel for the the legal betting and actually I did two because I still had one that I really liked in
Bookmaker and you know what uh both uh both settled at the cutline it was pretty nice although it what if the cut line were 36 holes I don’t think it would have settled I think I needed the the extra day of uh Shane Lowry sucking
A little bit right at the end I can’t believe the cut got to 13 yeah don’t miss the cup I won but uh I played uh norin over Shane Lowry but well this one’s nice because it is at FanDuel and bet online and it is a guy in Sun JM and if you
Look at go look at his distance like he’s not bad but average-ish I think is probably what you’re gonna find out um and obviously grades out well in a lot of other stuff and he’s a big name but he is too big of a favorite in my
Opinion uh in this matchup for sure so I’m taking Aber Berg as a as a dog here you can get I think DraftKings has plus 105 and then bet on line had plus 108 on this one right now so aberer aberg’s somebody I’m I’m betting for a full
Tournament 72 hole match up against sjm love it uh yeah I mean sunj 89 o I still say aberg o we’ll get there we’ll get there uh yeah sunj 89th in carry distance in what we just modeled out uh yeah again great golfer but yeah I’m I’m with you if
We’re getting a plus money on on the other guy like uh lud old bear Luda lud Luda my wife loves Luda um obviously all right the other one that I bet is also in the same boat we just aren’t G to get him to model properly um
And I feel you know the range of outcomes is a little bit more vast on Mini but yeah he’s been playing really good golf can scramble his face off we saw from a carry distance standpoint uh he’s fantastic uh yeah short game is great Spike putting weeks if you know
You want to get really hot in the green uh T Green’s gonna capture a nice number on him but like the approach Stu is sometimes really wonky but he makes up for it because he’s so damn good around the green so um I got a
31 uh which I think is a I think those are gone um whereas the Oar numbers are still around looking at domestics is very popular in the in the streets right now he’s fun you know like he’s young charismatic uh I think he’s just got a lot of
Like the kids say Pizzazz anymore Andy he’s got RZ I believe he’s got oh she got my bad he’s got RZ for sure he’s got drip drip for days he’s got sauce for weeks um yeah Lulu lemon’s for next uh poster boy no a lot of people do like
Him and like you said because he he played on the other two some of the sample sizes are a little weird for actual PGA events stuff but he’s just a good golfer he’s playing really well right now yeah he just coming up uh you want to like we’ve played really good
Golf uh you played again I wouldn’t make a comp to LACC and Tory Pines but again they both have recently hosted us opens menw last year T5 um again that was that is a really good example of like you know we talked about guys who haven’t played here much
Like to go out on that course that so many people just went out and threw their hands up like I can’t play this course I’m struggling the the Tilted Fairways and all the issues that had with that like to to go out and really perform well there was something I
Thought yeah because like we all remember the opening round and people were like all mad that like Ricky and Xander went berserk like wi the one at like 10 under so like it was not like a crazy finishing like everyone came back to Earth uh pretty quickly
So that was you know to compete and show up at a you know Big Boy tournament just the moment’s not too big The Field’s not too big I like him quite a bit at 31 and again like mostly gone but yeah uh I think I may have had like winning score
Under you know or over you know whatever it was 270 something and like after that first round like oh that BET’s dead and then it it ended up cashing in that uh after three more days a little little more Carnage so yeah all right recap recap your uh out rights quick before we
Sign off for the day uh ludvig at 22 those are basically still available mwo 31 uh 25s are still out there yeah um and um Luke listed 90 still readily available Taylor pendrith 110 you can get better than that uh people didn’t like my pend action so uh 120s 125s are
Out there with those those four so uh those are my those are my four houres and I’m done um okay yeah and I’ll join you on list and pendrith but I will also add Michael Kim and Adam shank nobody near the top of the board like I said I
Do have a matchup I’m looking at with ludvig over sunj that’s a fun one that’d be a fun group that was a fun one I would play with that group so all right uh check out the preview article over pets first Golf R on rights if you’re a
Member we’ll catch you in the Discord if you’re not and you have questions or you want a again if you want to try out this you want to try out this tool the rabbit hole and maybe you just want to dip your toes in the water we have we have weekly
Packages 10 bucks dude that’s like a coffee and a half if you’re waiting in line at Starbucks so 10 just try it out for a week and then don’t you know don’t forget that you’re paying every week then you know if you do like it the monthly subscription is a little more uh
Reasonable over the course of four weeks so you can always change your you know change your subscription as you go but yeah 10 bucks for week if you’re in a vivid State obviously as we talked about five bucks over on Vivid you can get a whole year so if you have any questions
DM us uh if you have any comments leave them in the Stream if you have a sneaky winner you think we missed obviously leave a comment here on the YouTube or hit us up on Twitter and with that we’re gone we’ll catch you next week doing outro music
