In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Steve Schirmer rides solo to preview the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open on the North and South courses at Torrey Pines. Steve pulls up the Google Earth imagery to take you on a tour of the North and South Courses at Torrey Pines and the types of holes each player will face. Then he previews what types of players and skillsets he favors for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open using the tools available on DataGolf.
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The SGP merch store 50% off everything when you use promo code playoffs all right DJ welcome back to the golf ging podcast just me again Boston Capper is working today which probably means he’s working on putting together his betting card for the NFL playoffs uh later on today I know both
Of us got killed with Depot Samuel props last night uh because it looked like they were he was going to get some pretty heavy usage and then he got hurt on his first touch came back and then he officially died so and so did our bets
But uh just me breaking down Tory Pines uh just a fantastic Golf Course um I hope you sense some of the sarcasm in my voice uh but listen this is a great tournament um a lot of history here good field um yeah we’ll break down you know
Before that obviously we got the AMX going on right now I got a couple guys in the mix I got Burns and JT I think teen off right now hown also in the mix I mean I it’s this tournament’s got kind of stupid though um I I made this
Comment on Discord I made I texted this but with just how low these guys are going especially going to at linta and Nicholas teric course the average scores this week there were four under they shouldn’t be going there anymore this is kind of a mockery and a joke nothing really matters it’s all
Just short irons and putting but I had the bright idea this there needs to be some place for match play why don’t we just have at the stadium course I don’t even know if it’s it’s really a good uh match play course even just because it’s
A lot of um you know short irons and putting but there’s enough water to really give you trouble you can have some birdies and it’s just match play so I think that would be a good fit maybe just to put that in the schedule instead of just watching what we’re watching now
It’s just not entertaining but that’s that uh you know we’ll probably get some I don’t know if I would call entertaining golf at Tory Pines this week but it’s usually Breeze a good leaderboard it’s not just because of a lot of really good names uh that are
Usually in this tournament it’s a big boy golf course this is the golf course that’s going to separate the men from the boys not like the Sony or the AMX or some of the Fall swing events we’ve been seeing where it’s just a lot of you know
Easy hit Fairways and short irons and you know you basically just you know can a bunch of putts that’s definitely not what this is here this is kind of more of a grind uh a lot of long irons we’ll get to that in a little bit but I was
Concerned about the field at first because I saw an article in the San Diego Tribune uh outlining who was going to play and their highlighting guy was Max H and then they listed a bunch of guys like Shane Lowry and Hideki and it didn’t look like this was going to be a
Very good field which is understandable considering we had uh you know a really good field at the AMX we have next week uh after this is goingon to be Pebble Beach a signature event week after that is the Phoenix open and then after that is Riviera so this is a very jam-packed
Schedule right now you know it would make sense if guys were going to take the week off and not play this thing but uh it just turns out the guy the San Diego Tribune just doesn’t really know what a notable golfer is and this is a
Very loaded field so obviously the pro I would say the most notable player is Max H coming back here defending his title um you know I mean he’s a great fit for this golf course a really good driver good long iron player obviously grew up in California that those net narratives
G to be jammed down zbody throat all week but he’s really good putting on this PO and we’re g to talk about that uh a little bit this afternoon how tricky and difficult this is to putt on that any experienc any positive experience you have putting on it is
Very difficult to putt on that’s why he’s really good here uh some other notables in the field we got love uh L UB o I’m Gonna Keep butchering that uh Patrick Klay Tony fow sunj M Kum more C is actually pretty good here despite um maybe not really fitting some of the
Predictive metrics that we’ll talk about a little bit Xander schafle who’s the San Diego resident should be better here I’ll explain why later why he’s not as good but for whatever reason I mean he’s he’s okay in the tourament but he should be better like this is a golf course
Tailor made to Xander schle strength especially with the driver and how good he is there and for whatever reason actually I know the reason I’ll I’ll tell you why later he hasn’t been all that good and Justin Thomas who’s actually playing pretty good but I’m
Fully expecting him to uh let me down in a little bit so why don’t we take our first break and then we’ll fire up Google Earth and I will show you Tory Pines all right so we are brought to you by DraftKings and uh oh I’m sorry we are not brought we’re
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Tory Pines that they’re not out yet the underdog fantasy cards but uh I would suspect picking lower on birdies are better or higher on rounds scor especially everybody going off on the south course it’s going to be pretty difficult so watch along make your picks and maybe you’ll make a little cash on
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This is Tory Pines now one thing I forgot to mention when we were talking about the field uh this is a Wednesday through Saturday tournament by the way so if you’re looking to get your DraftKings lineups in or get your betting card in everything is going to be shifted a day including our
Programming by the way we’re going to have our betting show tomorrow along with our DFS show so uh make sure you’re aware of that otherwise you’re going to miss the deadline you’re Miss s your bets don’t wait until Wednesday night to do it because tourament will started but
This is Tory Pines uh this was built in 1957 by uh the fatherson duo of William pbell and William F Bell and this actually used to be an anti- anti- artillery uh training ground uh it was called uh Camp Kalen it was used uh basically to uh train people to use anti
Aircraft artillery uh during World War II 1941 1945 it also I think it was an Airfield as well uh before it was turned into a golf course in 1957 and you know this is I believe the only municipally owned golf course on the pju obviously there’s Beth Page
Black is a major venue that’s hosted a couple uh FCO playoff events as well uh if you wanted to play it though for San Diego residents you can play it for uh Monday through Thursday 69 bucks 85 bucks on the weekend pretty good deal but if you’re a non-resident they’re
Gonna definitely gouge you on it if you are just want to travel to San Diego and maybe Tory Pines has always been on your bucket list because you watched tiger in 2008 when that dragu opener maybe you’re just like you know a big John ROM fan
And you want to just go to the spot where he not only won the US Open but got uh engaged to his now wife uh that will cost you if you want to play 18 holes on the weekend at the South courts $292 so you have to decide then looking
At this golf course as I’m going to go through today is that really worth it for you and uh so back around 2000 though um let’s go back to you know the history of this place the US GA started to get an appetite for having public golf courses on his rotation and you
Know it’s appealing for that you know the USGA is supposed to be for the amateurs and promoting the game of golf and they figured well why not have our Championship on golf courses that anyone can play and they picked two in particular one was Beth pige black which
Is in Long Island and the other one was Tory Pines and unfortunately though um you know this was a site of a PJ event for years with the farmers but it wasn’t quite to the usgaa standards so what they did was they to they brought in ree Jones the uh Jones Golf architecture
Family and he basically put all his fingerprints on it uh you know renovated the golf course lengthened it primarily narrowed the fairways to make it Championship worthy and then it was um you know ready for play in 2008 arguably I think the most famous US Open in
History with Tiger Woods on a broken leg defeating Roco mediate in the 18 whole playoff on Monday and then before the 2021 Us open again as golf technology has just improved and these guys are hitting a lot longer Reese Jones came in again and made a couple changes I’ll
Show you one of the changes right now so let’s zoom in to the first hole and let’s go back uh in time here so one of the biggest things it’s GNA take a little time to reload let’s go back a couple years there we go so one of the things
They did was they had to shift out all the bunkers here’s you know and every hole as I’m going to go through this is basically one objective it’s a very narrow Fairway 25 to you know 28 yards wide flanked by bunkers but before Reese Jones fixed this before the 2021 US Open
These bunkers are a little set off the Fairway here and there was a little patch of rough and what he wanted to do was basically pinch the bunkers in to give less of a margin for error with offline t- shots he also uh took bunkers and moved them out out uh basically to
Put them more in the way of a you know longer drive so you know this bunker here was about 305 to get there about 281 here this was only about 250 to get to it now if you Flash Forward here this bunker is now gone it’s about 330 get to
This bunker so and and pretty much every single hole had a bunker moved out and pinched into the Fairway here so that was the biggest primary change there also was a couple changes where they had some collection areas to uh some of the greens but for the most part it’s mostly
Just rough around all these greens um let’s you know take you a little tour of the South course here so starting off you basically playing right into the ocean I would say this most scenic part of South the South course is right off the bat um you know as soon as you get
Past the first green you can see the ocean the beach here you play Down uh to the third green here the downhill par three third then you play over along the beach here to the fourth back up here to the fifth and then then you play the uh
Long par five six here this was a par this is a par four in the US Open for a part for the uh Farmers Insurance open is actually a par five basically it’s a dog leg carry over the corner here but you can see everything’s very linear everything like if you’re just let’s
Just zoom here you know pretty much every t-shot is on the south course is basically the same with the same objective you have a very narrow Fairway it’s flanked by bunkers you got to avoid those and then every single green for the most part has its four tiered green
With two blunk flanking the side and you just play that over and over and over and over so if you’re somebody who wanted to play this golf course you want to travel San Diego you know just know that you’re going to pay $300 to play essentially the same hole over and over
And over and over to the South course and probably shoot1 six uh with really really thick rough and narrow Fairways and you’re probably not going to enjoy yourself other than you know you know just knowing what it’s like the satisfaction playing the PG Tour golf course but anyway so the round goes back
Over the seventh here and then you’re gonna play to end the N end your front nine the long par five ninth dead straight 614 yards again narrow Fairway flanked by bunkers except this time you’re not seeing the beach or the ocean you’re playing along essentially a bunch of
Office Parks I think the scripts Medical Center is down here too it’s very reminiscent of uh uh TBC Southwind basically playing through the office park there um and you’re swing back to this is a huge piece of property by the way you’re going to swing back here to let’s
Let’s Spotlight the 12th Hole by the way this is I this is the toughest hole in the golf course this is usually playing directly into the wind it’s a long par for 500 yards again the objection hit the middle of the Fairway in a long you know narrow Fairway here flanked by bunkers
Here and then you’re going set up a very long approach shot again that’s really all there is to it to this place um the next hole then you you got a glimpse of the ocean and now you’re tur back in and then you’ll never see the ocean again on
The south course this is pro this is the 13th everyone knows the 13th the long par five uh this is where Bryson famously hit it into I think the Stella Artois box at the US Open and made a seven to take him out of it I would put the
13th uh as one of the top five worst par fivs on the PJ tour um not only is it just kind of you know pretty standard and boring you know again you just got to carry the bunkers avoid them you narrow rough but if you
Do find the rough here you can’t get to the green and the layup Zone shrinks to about 15 to 20 yards wide not very friendly to amateurs and if you come short you have basically like it’s like stepping stones with these bunkers up to the green here there’s no place to bail
Out there’s no safe place for an amateur like this this hole is basically impossible for a 20 handicapper to pretty much just bunt your way up and you’re probably making a nine on this hole um and then why don’t we skip over these holes because honestly these are
Basically the same holes the only water hazard on the south course besides the ocean is the 18th uh ree Jones put a pond in front of the 18th green here I guess to add some drama to anyone trying to carry the Green in two or get to the
Green and two if you do miss the green or miss the Fairway on the par five 18th you have absolutely no shot of getting to the green here it’s basically a layup in front of the pond here otherwise though guys routinely just blast it as
Far as they can just to take the water out of play and usually end up maybe in this bunker down here um you occasionally can otherwise you can see some guys maybe spin the green ball off the green back into the water it’s obviously big no no but that’s the South
Course um again it’s not my favorite on the on the PJ sewer for obvious reasons uh now that they’re going to play three rounds here and then they play one round at the North Course so this is also a William Bell design it’s kind of basically a mini version I’m gonna swing
Around here this is basically a mini version of Tory Pines it’s much small or the South course it’s much smaller yardage wise than the North course but again you can see all the holes very linear narrow Fairways flanked by bunk there are a couple subtle differences
That we’ll talk about after uh the next commercial break but I would say if for just enjoying Golf and having a little bit of a nicer round a nicer 18 I would say this is the better 18 of the Tory Pines uh two golf courses you get a lot
More views of the ocean here you know um I mean this is the start of the back nine here and you’re playing up to the you know to the ocean here down the 10th green uh that’s the opening part five of the back nine you also see the ocean
Again on 14 15 and 16 here you’re playing around all the Canyons you know right you know 17 here um I would and it’s it’s easier I mean you know still narrow narrow still a lot of thick rough but there’s less trees they got a lot of trees in the uh
Renovation they did back in 2016 they also uh expanded the greens as well these greens are a little bigger than what they are in the South course uh but there’s only one round there for the Farmers Insurance open with no Strokes gain data so nothing to go on there but
The guys the PG tour guys you know while they struggle on the south course for reasons that we’ll talk about later these guys usually beat up the North Course uh I would suspect it’s you know it’s you know a lot of shorter irons into bigger greens you it’s not as difficult as the
South course for a lot of reasons but it’s still something to worry about um you know we’ll talk a little bit more about it after our next break uh we’ll take another commercial break and then we will start getting into the nitty-gritty of what you need to focus
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Gcsaa and let’s start here this is your Basics that I use every single uh tournament basically see if there’s any other changes that that I don’t know about but this gives you all your Agronomy stats uh yardages everything that this is a free tool that anyone can
Get it’s where I start every single week when I uh handicap a tournament so um this is the South course we’re going to start with the South course first this is a par 72 uh for the US Open a par 71 7,765 yards average green side 5,000
Square feet that’s smaller than the pg2 or average about 6,000 square feet um greens are poana very difficult as Evan uh points out in our chat here late afternoon PO is nuts that is exactly true we’ll talk about a little bit uh why that is the case when we talk about
Why this is one of the most difficult places to putt on on the PGA tour um one thing though that people kind of screw up sometimes with this place it’s not they screw up they just are you know they don’t really making the connection here but everyone wants toop about the
Kakuyu at this place and it’s true most every every time of the year this is kakuyu Fairway Kyu grass and Kyu is a very sticky grass a very grabby grass uh it’s definitely not easy to play off of it makes the golf course longer especially if you’re hitting out of the
Rough it’s it’s it can be kind of a nightmare but because of the temperatures uh this time of year in laala and by the ocean it’s just not warm enough to sustain healthy kikuyu rough growth so this is a rye overseed um this is standard for what they do
With Bermuda Golf Courses when it’s too cold there they do the same thing here uh the only real change I note from last year uh last year’s Farmers Insurance open is the length of the rough this is going to be 4 in this year last year is
Three and a half and um you know there’s the weather we’ll get to a little bit doesn’t look like it’s going to be all that bad for these guys so maybe they’re you know realizing hey these guys are really good ripping up a lot of golf courses the scoring records are just
Falling year by year now this is a way to just a very low hanging fruit way to make it a little tougher for everybody um now the North Course though it’s essentially the same Agronomy except for one key difference so like I mentioned with the North Course a lot shorter than
Um the South course this is only 7,258 yards here average green side 6,000 square feet that’s about average for the PJ T but that’s bigger than um you know the South course here um the greens though these are Bentgrass they’re not Po and that might help explain a little
Bit why the scoring is a lot better at the North Course versus the South of course because with the POA it’s so difficult to putt on uh the bankass though these greens R really good so really good Putters tend to do really well and get and they can go really low
Here but other than that though essentially the same Agronomy it’s a Ry grass overseed over the Kyu four inches of rough same Fairway widths to 24 to 27 yards as well so again it’s just a mini version of the South course but it’s got benr greens and the scoring is a lot
Easier there as we’ll get to and a little bit so typically I have not been I’ve been skipping over this page we’re going to go to Da golf now and typically I’ve been skipping over this course table page this basically takes every golf course that’s played on the PGA
Tour and ranks it based on difficulty or ease and there’s a lot of stuff here uh to basically go over it gives you kind of a flavor about you know how this golf course plays relative to other places um what are the challenges that this golf course basically presents everybody else
And the last couple weeks I’ve just been skipping it because at caloa it’s one of the easiest golf courses like there’s nothing really this ha about with that same thing with AMX The Stadium Course or Wy nothing was really all that difficult or noteworthy to really talk
About but now we’re getting to a Big Boy golf course that is going to separate the men from the boys and there are things that we do need to start talking about when it comes to Tory Pines in relation the South course uh in relation to everybody else so let’s start with
Off the te here so this out of 85 golf courses played in the PG tour since 2015 Tory Pine the South course ranks 20th uh in terms of difficulty on the PJ tour and in most years here this is the drop down of like what it is per year most
Years it’s above average in difficulty last year was 11th hardest driving course uh 2022 13th hardest 2021 7th hardest I mean if you look through I if you follow with Google Earth this is the South course is long and there are no opportunities to not hit driver you have
To hit driver at the South course and these are narrow Fairways with bunkers pinch in right to the fairways there The Landing zones are extremely small and you have thick rough to gobble up any aant shots that uh really is going to put you behind the hole if you miss a
Fairway and the drive accuracy rates are really low here usually uh usually they’re low 50% so obviously this is going to be a tough demanding driving uh course one of the tougher ones the PG T every single year um just some stats with the average driving distances average driving
Distance through the years only 288.2 and that might be a little misleading to you sometimes you know this low number might suggest oh it’s just a less than uh driver golf course because the average drive and all drives is a lot lower uh that’s not the case with this
One everyone is hitting driver on South course except for maybe one or two holes the reason why it’s so low uh at the South course is because if you miss a fairway the ball stops it stops right in the rough this is also sea level it’s a
Little colder the ball’s not flying as far as what it did like wly or the AMX or anything like that or like maybe some of the summer courses where the ball just goes and goes and goes here it’s a Rass overseed if you hit the Fairway usually plays kind of soft the ball’s
Not really going to go anywhere anyways if you miss a fairway the ball stops that is why the average driving distance is so low here so don’t get you know uh confused Maybe and think oh maybe these guys are laying up no they’re hitting driver just when they miss you know
They’re just the ball is just stopping and you have to set up a very long approach out there uh driving ACC rates like I mentioned low 50s basically a coin flip every time you’re you pee up with a driver if you’re g hit the Fairway or not
Um approach play actually no I’m sorry before we do that let’s go to the penalty for missing Fairways here and you would think I mean it’s very people always talk about oh well you know Tory Plus or Tory punish punishing rough and uh you know I mean it’s it’s kind of
True it’s not I think I think it’s a little overblown how punishing it truly is it’s for in terms of like the difference of what your score on a hole would be versus hitting from the Fairway and hitting From the Rough you know it’s it’s of all golf courses since 2015 it’s
The 34th hardest so I mean it’s a little above average but it’s not crazy there definitely are golf courses where there’s a way bigger difference between your scores on a hole if you hit the Fairway and miss and I think it’s just um I think just speaks to like at the
South course the approach you’re going to have a lot of long approach shots regardless of if you hit the Fairway or not and it’s to you know m a multi-tiered green small green where um you know each green I forgot to mention earlier each green is basically in
Quadrants so they even though you know they’re already small greens they play a lot smaller um you know than that because the targets are so small and if you don’t hit the right level if you’re off a little bit the ball’s going to roll pretty far away it’s going to set
Up a very uh long and difficult putt there but yeah it’s it that kind of speaks to just there’s no real relief even if you hit the Fairway it’s you’re still going to have a difficult approach shot and that’s why the difference in scoring if you’re hitting from the rough or hitting
From the Fairway it’s not as severe I think as what people might want to think it is now this number here the non Ruff penalty is one of the lowest on the PJ tour the really isn’t a penalty for hitting it other places or a big penal
Versus the Fairway and um for example bunker or Hazard well there isn’t really a lot of Hazards here uh the only place I think off the te uh that you can incur a penalty stroke here is if you hit into a canyon I think on 14 otherwise though
There’s really nothing and you know there are Fairway bunkers I pointed uh out in the Google Earth uh walkthrough earlier that are very close to the Fairway well so that’s actually not that bad of a result off the te because you’re going to a clean lie uh you know
These some of these bunkers are puzzle piece shaped and you can get they can get a little awkward if you’re against one with like the fingers there but for the most part as long as you know you got an unstructed view there you know I
Mean you got a clean lie you’re G get good contact on it the penalty is not really that bad it’s you know hitting into one of some of these bunkers is actually kind of a good thing you rather be there than way offline you know in
The rough there uh it’s one of the lowest penalty rates also the p you T all right let’s get to approach uh play to so let’s go to the values here average green regulation rate about 61% um you know it it varies year to year based on some weather last year was
Only 58.5% last year was cold it was windy uh one you know definitely one of the lower uh green regulation rates on the PG T but you know you get 2019 idic perfect San Diego weather it was warm it was sunny there was no wind 65% so for a
Golf course a lot of long approach shots with small greens the fact that it was about pj2 a average for um you know GRE regulation rate kind of shows how benign it played uh that year it’s something that maybe keep in mind and we’ll talk about the weather a little bit what type
Of tournament really is going to be um around the green I’m not really going to worry too much about that this week um I think for you know we’ll top about the predictive skill sets but around the green here it’s really just rough and shipping onto a undulated polar green
And you’re do that basically over and over and over and it really some of the skill gets kind of taken out from having to hack out out a deep rough into underg green sometimes you get very lucky you know maybe the ball is going to sit up other times you’re just gonna swipe
Underneath it and kind of don’t really know where it’s going to go so I’m not really working worried too much about round and green stuff but putting let’s get rid of this this is what we need to focus on a lot this week this is one of the
Toughest putting Golf Course is not only every year in the PG tour but of all golf course they played since 2015 uh it has uh the lowest uh percentage of putts hit from under five feet some of the lowest actually the lowest since 2015 of all putts between five and 15 feet and
Pretty above average difficulty for longer putts too and that’s the POA right there uh as Evan pointed out in the chat here the POA it’s bumpy it’s inconsistent it’s a little little bit of a luck box putting on it especially in the late afternoon when the buds are
Poking up there it the ball can just oscillate and wobble on even the shortest putts and sometimes you just look very befuddled you get the right line and it just hits the wrong side of a bud and goes kening offline and you know it’s golf is an unfair game this is
An unfair putting surface to uh try and putt on uh but you you know like guys like Max hom who have experienced putting this on this uh surface you know they kind of take their lumps it is what it is uh and they just go from there so
Yeah this and this is not unique by the way we’re GNA be playing a couple California po golf courses in next couple weeks we’re saying the same thing it is really difficult to putt on poana in California just in general so all right so let’s look let’s load this up
Here uh let’s go to the P results page so let’s just go over just who’s been winning here so last year Max H won at 13 under uh in 2022 you have Luke list winning in the playoff over will alot Horus everybody really wanted zot Horus to win the week
Well didn’t quite happen there 2021 uh Patrick Reed that basically breaking the models uh I don’t think any there might have been some people picking up because I think it he he dropped a 4050 to one at one point I think some people took a bite there but I remember when we were
Doing the podcast I think we we just kaer and I just completely overblue uh blew pass Reed for you know any shot from him I think I had hin that week actually but Reed crushed everybody that was the infamous um uh tournament where he claimed that the ball embedded even
Though the CBS cameras saw the ball bounce you know I mean Reed tends to you know stretch the truth a little bit despite overwhelming video evidence to the contrary uh 2020 uh that was actually the the year Kobe Bryant died on Sunday and that was really awkward he
Had CBS Chase tiger down just so they can hear you know um laaba tell him that uh Kobe died and they wanted his reaction it was kind of gross but that was before covid that was uh the last time the world was normal Mark lean won
That year I had leash that year that was great uh 2019 Justin Rose that was a really easy year this was the outlier year Justin Rose won it 21 under average score on the south course was under par that is the only time in the last uh
Five years it played under part but the weather that week was really ideal it was pristine it just didn’t really have a lot of defenses so but then you get to a year like 2023 where really difficult scoring the average score of the South course last
Year was plus 1.6 so also something you need to keep in mind too is this is a golf course that can vary wildly with the weather you know if there’s rain and wind it plays a lot differently than what it does when it’s really calm conditions and you have the North Course
That everybody has played over the first few days in South course as well it plays really easy the question is then and I’ve been kind of trying to you know get an answer Through The Years too when do you want to play the North Course do you want it to be perfect conditions
Where you can just go low or do you want to play the South course in perfect conditions because it can be getable and because you have absolutely no shot of there’s 40 mile per hour wins and it’s raining you’re just going to get blown up the scene of the South
Course maybe play the South course on a better day and and hope that you know you can you know kind of hameg it on the North Course well let’s look at last year this is actually a great example this had a pretty defined wave split between two I remember on Thursday it
Was ideal sand dieago weather I think it was a little chillier but no wind Sunny it was great and then Friday it was I think 35 to 40 mile per hour winds it played really tough so while we look at the North Course here so in round one
When everybody got the best scoring conditions it was minus two point two under par in round two it bloomed up about three shots there to plus 1.18 South course here let’s do that round one played a little bit overpar and then it ballooned up everyone just
Got blown out to see on the south course uh average score was almost four over for the day uh in 2021 we also got another wave split as well uh in round one on the North Course average score was about two and a half under par Friday little tougher weather conditions
With some rain uh you know dropped down about 1.4 Strokes South course though played pretty difficult about 1.6 shots harder uh from day today from Thursday to Friday but overall though I in my opinion if there is if weather is going to be a factor I think you want to be
Able to take advantage of the north course I think you want to get out to a big lead early I know Patrick Reed did that in 2021 where he played on the North course and really ideal conditions and just Hamond Ed on the south course and
Survived that day and got to a really hot start I think that’s really vital in the ter especially with all three with three rounds coming out the really more difficult South course you really have to go low in the North Course and take advantage of it when you can so if there
Is weather concerns definitely play the North Course is actually why I alluded to it earlier why Xander’s really never been good in this tournament I mean he’s been good but he should be better he always gets off the slow starts on the North Course for whatever reason I don’t
I’m not sure why I don’t know if it fits his eye or what but he’s so much better on the south course because he’s just a really good golfer and consistent all areas a really good driver for whatever reason not a ton of su success in the
North Course and that explains why he probably isn’t winning these things when he he should he just can’t take advantage of the easier scoring conditions where everybody blows past him and then he’s just playing catchup as the tourament goes on so but here’s the thing though I just had this entire
Spiel and maybe next year we can refer back to it as something that’s really going to matter but the weather uh remember this is a Wednesday through Sunday tournament so the golf course on Monday looks like he gonna get rain so practice rounds gonna be a little difficult but it’s G to soften
Off the golf course a lot it’s gonna be a really soft golf course and then look at this weather Wednesday’s a little cooler but no winds uh Thursday Sunshine colder temperatures but no wind uh Friday no wind again and Saturday sunny again a little cooler but no wind and
You’re GNA have a soft Tory Pines it’s gonna play a little longer you know because of the the uh the Monday rain there but no wind um I think this is really GNA resemble the 2019 tournament where it just guys went really low that week and there was a lot of birdies to
Be had and it just played a lot differently than what you know some of the Tory Pines tournament that were really used to now it’s still going to play tough I mean these are still narrow Fairways with thick rough and long approach shots if you’re spraying it all
Over the place you know that’s not really go well for you but I think in this particular tournament with as long as weather forecast holds there’s going to be opportunities to score here and I think that’s important to you know keep in mind when you look at past
Tournaments and especially when you look at the in tournament Strokes gain what’s you’ve been able to do to separate yourselves versus everybody else I think that tournament is going to be one to look at as far as how guys ended up getting to where they did in the
Leaderboard I think 2022 as well uh the one that Luke list won that one I remember having kind of more benign tournaments that might be one to refer to I don’t think last year might be a good one to refer to because that was cold and windy I think
Different things were a little valued a little differently which I’ll go over in a little bit uh let’s start with the pred course fit tool though again this is a great tool to use just to show guys who are the types of guys who are expected to do well coming into Tory
Pines were those guys and you know no surprise here based on just and this is just the South course by the way I’ll show you the North Course in a little bit but with the South course with how long it is everything’s right on front of you you have to hit driver narrow
Fairways difficult to hit Fairways thick rough having pop and length is a big Edge at this at Tory Pines and it has a lot higher predicted power towards success here than the average pg2 or Golf Course for reasons I just explained accuracy not as important a little more
Variable there again it’s definitely way more important to be longer than accurate here these are already going to be difficult to hit Fairways it’s going to be difficult for everybody in the field even if you’re moraco or Matt coocher just they’re going to miss Fairways and the longer players are a
Little more better equipped to hit out of the rough with their CL faster Club head speeds than the guys who are a little more accurate they might hit maybe one or two more Fairways than the other guys so um but again like this is a big boy golf course this is going to
Test you and lo and behold yeah I switch to this toggle makes it a little easier to look at but better iron players tend to do well here at Tory PLS better guys around the green to new well here better Putters I think that’s important just because of the POA having confidence to
Putt on the surface but this isn’t like last week at the stadium course or Nicholas tournament or even wildlight where just nothing matters like anyone can show up and shoot low scores this one good players tend to rise up the leaderboard it’s not really a huge
Surprise the names were G to be you know in the top 10 at the end of the tournament I’ll go over that in a little bit you know who those guys were but you know it’s I don’t get too cute with this tournament this week I I think if you’re
Going to usually favorite tend to win um you know the last couple years H last year I think was like 25 to1 in 2022 luk list was 75 to1 so that’s a little bit longer 2021 was Patrick Reed you know anywhere from 25 to 40 to1 2020 Mark
Lman 55 to1 2018 uh Justin Rose I think he’s like 15 to one the commonality between all those guys was well not Patrick Reed but for the most part they’re really good long iron players they got some pop off the te and if you’re going to go for a longer shot
Like a luk list really good long iron player a little bit of pop or a lot of Pop actually that’s way you want to go you know gravitate towards um but otherwise though typically top of the board usually hits here for a lot of these reasons with the north course it’s
Fairly similar the uh the predictive skill set is a South course the only difference is I think because of the shorter approach shots overall it’s a little more variable as far as the skill as far as iron play coming in whether you’re good or not whether you can do
Well there seems to be a little more I mean distance is still heavily favored just because the narrow Fairways you’re hitting driver a lot that’s going to favor that skill set but it’s a it favors a little more guys with a short game too so just because the
Scoring is a little better all right let’s go over uh two more things let’s go over how guys are able to separate themselves at Tory Pines here so this within event correlation set th this is I don’t love looking at these types of things so this one
Suggests that despite the fact that this is a tough driving course it’s very important to hit driver well here your Strokes gained off the t uh numbers your performance in the tournament is not going to separate you all that much here everyone’s kind of clumped together as far as what they do
Off see and I think it’s probably you know speaks to even if you hit the Fairway it’s set up a difficult approach shot into the green a longer approach shot into the green everyone’s really missing Fairways and if you miss a fairway here it’s basically the same result you’re probably not hitting the
Green so you know there’s no real change in scoring your average score is probably going to be the same in result uh no matter who you are if you miss a fairway here uh last year though iron play around the green and putting basically the your performance in those
Areas uh basically decided where you finished on the leaderboard uh that week you know I’m kind of looking at it here like all the really good iron players that week you know H had a great iron week Bradley had a great iron week moral sunjay all these guys had their irons
Really good and then they puted really good too and converted that’s not really the case every single year though uh in 2022 here H this was actually kind of similar iron iron play and scrambling you were able to better separate yourself driving was a little more important probably
Because of the com conditions let’s go back to 2019 though and in this one because it was a little bit easier scoring conditions iron play wasn’t quite as impactful as most years but it’s about as predictive as what it us usually is um a little bit more of a putting contest
Though and that probably makes sense from the standpoint everyone was going to go low so I think this tournament like what these skills are valuing here guys who scrambled a little better in tournament and puted a little better in tournament were better able to separate themselves more than just your ball
Striking that year uh kind of a similar situation a little bit in 2022 um pretty heavy emphasis on the around the green play here that week so uh um I think it’s going to play a little differently what it did last year a little easier scoring conditions based on some of the
Weather uh implications I I talked about earlier you know just something to keep in mind but you know even you go back to 2019 though still a stack of leaderboard Justin Rose Adam Scott Hideki Taylor GS Jason day Rory Rah like you’re the guys who were expected to play well that week
Played well that week and that just kind of speaks to just what Tory Pines is it’s Big Boy golf course you can’t fake it around here you know just kind of just got of nut up and do it so last thing the approach shot uh distribution buckets this is really important I keep
Talking about longer approach shots and you can see here you know last couple last week I looked a lot at shots under 150 yards I think when I broke down the Nicholas tournament golf course it was like 10 shots under 150 uh this is only about looks like maybe three out of 10
Shots are under 150 yards everything else is over 150 yards um you know of heavy concentration of shots between 150 and 175 at Tory Pine South um a little less than the PG T average from 175 200 but still a fairly significant amount and then uh a higher number of shots than
The PG T average over 200 yards uh that’s not surprising even the length of the golf course is almost 7,800 yards the fact that if you miss a fairway the ball is going to stop and you’re going to have a much longer approach shot uh you’re at sea level the ball is not
Going to carry as long either not a surprise this is a big test of your long iron play this week I will uh have Cameron tweet out when I go through the North Course what I think the average or what the proximity buckets would be I would
Suspect based on the scoring of the um the North Course and the yardage as well it’s not as heavy of an emphasis on shots over 150 yards probably a lot more wedges than the South course but it is only one round I wouldn’t I’m not going to worry
Too much about the North Course in my handicap this week just because everybody has to play the weekend at the South course that’s ultimately going to decide it I’m just gonna Focus mostly on the south course in my handicap what I’m looking for is guys are pretty good off the tea have some
Pop good iron players good long iron players and maybe some success on POA you know can has the ability you know maybe some adep scramblers too I mean basically I’m looking at just really good players this week I’m not looking for scrubs pretty much unlike at the AMX
Where it just was a putting contest this one is I want a good pedigree player I’m not going to get too cute my betting card this week I don’t think you should either so all right that is it uh thanks for joining us one last thing uh before
We get out of here uh good luck to the Buffalo Bills obviously if you were a fan of this show and have heard me I live in Western New York I’m currently freezing my ass off in my garage here and you know I just I’m obviously not a Bills fan I’m a Giants
Fan but there are dozens and dozens of people in my life who are diard Bills fans and especially people my age that they were really young when they experienced the the for SE losses in a row and you know maybe they I got the impression that oh it’s just always
Going to be this way well it hasn’t it’s been a dry spell for 30 years for them and they have lost in every conceivable way possible and every devastating way possible and I can’t understate enough and every fan base can probably say this how much the NFL team matters to you
Know the region the community but in Rochester New York in particular like the bills aren’t here they’re located 60 miles from here and everybody around town today I went to I took my daughter swim class I had to drop off my golf clubs of FedEx I’m going to Florida next
Week um I was shipping them down everybody’s wearing bills gear everyone’s wearing scarves and hats my wife for God’s sakes went to a doughnut place today that’s actually on our Tik Tok page stood in line getting custom made Buffalo Bills donuts and everybody was lined up out the door getting them
Everyone’s pumped up for this game but this is usually the game the bills lose and everybody kind of knows that deep down and I just hope that to God that just give them a win can they just win for once can they just make people happy around here um otherwise this is
The biggest Bills game in probably in 30 years here it’s the most important Bills game in 30 years they have to get over the hump with Mahomes they have to beat them and if they don’t I I’m gonna go to the office tomorrow and it’s just gonna
Be like a funeral it’s gonna be horrible and I don’t want to see people like that I don’t want to see my friends unhappy so for God’s sakes Buffalo Bills just [ __ ] man up can you [ __ ] win today please just win all right that’s it uh
Thank you for joining me uh as a reminder this is a Wednesday through Saturday tournament uh so all our content pushed up we will be here live tomorrow night breaking down the betting card last year we didn’t have a final betting card we not all the props are
Out we’re kind of just digesting a little bit what we might do uh we’ll probably do a similar process again this week we’ll just run to the betting card who do we like what positional props we might do maybe some guys we want to fade for matchups and
We’ll put out an official Bing card on Tuesday on our social with that thank you for joining me uh good luck uh if you’re an NFL fan today uh room for a playoff team good luck with that if you are not and just gambling on the on the
Games go Lu with your bets too and with that uh we’ll see you tomorrow night
