⛳️ Amex Open ODDS and Course Breakdown for bettors!

Ryan and Andy get their heads together and solve this three-piece puzzle.

0:00 Intro
1:05 The Amex Setup
13:50 Key Stats
20:00 Model
37:36 Bets
50:36 Final Thoughts

Amex Open ODDS and Course Breakdown for bettors!

Well I think I should probably be talking hey everyone Welcome Back betsws Golf 2024 American Express here with my friend as always fresh hat got some shelves behind him Andy what’s going on bud yeah you haven’t uh they’ve been up for a little for the foot viewers but

People haven’t gotten to see I don’t know if I have a lot of golf stuff on there I’ve got a football signed by Victor Cruise from The Profit exchange folks I got an Andy’s beer can this is a golf Trophy this is uh this is for last

Place and Myrtle Beach it’s a horse’s ass they didn’t give it to me I had to buy it but it was worth the 12 bucks so that goes up on the Shelf but yeah I’ll have to get some golf stuff up there as well and yeah we

Are it’s fun to be into the California swing and all but we’re into that part of the Year where hey we have a full field but guess what it’s still January and the sun goes down a little early so we’re playing on three courses and a big

You know a big reason for that is is the amount of daylight you have if you Tred to even do split tea times on one course we’re just we’re finishing round two until noon on Saturday it just doesn’t work so I’m fine you know I’m fine with

The MX doing this I would like to see the shotlink stuff that they were starting to test out at like do was it hero um do you remember like the shot length the wearable shot length stuff I would love to see some of that come into

Play on some of these courses where we don’t have that sort of thing um even if it’s shittier it’s something compared to just getting zero stats from you know these non shot Lake courses and we’re used to shotlink being sort of shitty at times anyway it’s it’s you know like

It’s I’ve seen the people like I’ve been to tournaments I’ve seen the people that run it right it’s it’s like a 60-year old dude with an iPad sitting there in the sun like he’s he’s doing the best again but for the most part it’s a lot

Of volunteer work so I would like more stats to come out of this that’d be great but for now I’m you know it is what it is we’ll get uh final route stats and we’ll get everything from stadium so you want to explain the uh the

Rotation well first how much how much uh Sony did you watch you watch did you watch any Sony on Sunday because it was up against Bly was okay yeah I know it was tough to catch a lot of the week I watched more on Thursday Friday obviously yeah than I did the weekend

Because of the football up against it but it’s still it’s still a good tournament and I did enjoy watching the uh the beautiful scenery the W good palm trees palm trees back yeah good to be back good to get the uh palm tree first real uh outright sweat out of the way

Steals years off my life you know Ron and I had uh Keegan I was painted as a uh you know masshole Homer uh on this program for back in Keegan and uh not wrong it yeah I did oh man yeah he gave that away so to Benny an kudos to

Grayson Murray who was not on anyone’s radar last week and even in maybe the FBI yeah anybody who doesn’t get that joke go do do do a deep dive on his social media yeah it’s it’s not great so wudo he’s you know he’s got clean he’s figured his

Stuff out I guess and uh yeah I mean even though the broadcast had him buried uh and he just kind of gives himself a a chance there on the 72nd and then comes back and saves himself with just absolute bomb on the first playoff hole yes it was interesting starts of the

Year but we’re back on the wagon here AMX speaking on the wag and he broken down you know it’s funny too the one of one of the matchups that I had still going into the weekend I was feeling pretty good he had a sizable lead but uh I knew

The tournament was getting right down to it I wasn’t watching uh towards the end I I was going to bring it up for like the last few holes but obviously again there’s football and I said oh I should check how Benny an’s doing because I had

Benny Anne versus uh SE Kim who had both made the cut and I’m like oh she’s like straight up going to win this thing maybe I I might have had the weirdest matchup where I bet the guy who wins versus uh over the guy who won it last

Year he ended up winning by quite a few Strokes obviously because he was in the you know when you’re in the playoff you usually win your matchup boy that would have been brutal to lose I wonder if that’s happened where a a pre-tournament matchup has been two players that have

Been in the playoff and you get to sweat it out really to the to the bloody end but good job by him um like I liked him a lot especially against you it would have been I I guess I don’t care if he wins or not I didn’t have an

R on him or anything but congrats to Murray and yeah huge number there we’re kind of in the same spot again here did usually this is a tournament where we’ve seen some bigger numbers but absolutely but this is a little different and we’re gonna run into this I think probably all

Year long this is one of the strongest Fields we’ve ever had here there is 10 I think without a doubt yeah Ron Ron industry we’ve called it the strongest field we’ve ever had here I’m GNA trust him on that 22 of the top 50 ranked players in the world are here

In what are we calling this just La Hoya linta uh PJ westella Valley yeah uh yeah it’s weird I you know I we’ve seen kind of a better field here of late and then I just thought with the way the the kind of schedule broke down coming over from

Hawaii uh having some guys you some of these guys are guys that played at Century and didn’t necessarily play at Sony but like with some of the designated or elevated Signature Events is where we’re at this year I thought this one would kind of be left to the side especially with three course

Rotation you have the proam element that’s not something that a lot of guys love to do but solid solid field and yeah hopefully we this is all we want right so I don’t really want the stinkers we want these these guys going at least a handful of them going head

To-head each week so yeah glad we got Scotty kley and Xander like to come here apparently a Fino’s been here every year Bern’s been here you sunj plays every week um you know JT didn’t qualify for the century and wasn’t goingon to go just play uh Sony so you know we get him

To start so yeah really solid we get and we get Daniel Burger back too who we have not seen for 18 months 2022 it has been a very long time yeah so yeah this is a a decent field so pretty pretty interesting Yeah you mentioned the three

Course rotation it’s the one we get the stadium Stadium Course P die track everyone’s going to play there on Sunday if you make the cut 54 whole cut so everyone’s playing all three of the tracks you typically see I think it came out and I shame on me I didn’t look at

It this morning some of the other stuff I was doing but um you typically see like the bigger name guys playing on the uh Pete die track on Saturday so they get back to back rounds because typically that’s where the cameras are and you want to be able to Showcase

Those guys on the weekend when you get a better you know bigger TV audience but look bird everywhere uh you got to score regardless of what you’re doing here all three courses are below average in terms of Strokes gains uh you know scored a par uh top 10 easiest courses on the

Track so we’re going to look at some of that this uh this week here you’ve seen you know guys get into the mid to high 20s to to to win here so yeah you got to be running hot with a flat stick he’s aren’t there’s not a lot of danger

Stadium Course has you know the bunker that’s like uh just what is it the entire length of the it’s like 80 feet down in the entire left side of the Fairway uh there’s some water on that course as well otherwise pretty user friendly slower greens easier pin placements because you

Have the pram element and that’s part of why you have these guys be able to go flag hunting pretty easily yeah so pretty much nailed it everyone’s goingon to play all three courses like you said some of the big names will end up on the the good course

You know the the course that we’re going to use for suay on Saturday so they do I don’t know if there’s a distinct Advantage if anyone’s ever proven that out I know some people use that as a narrative like it’s Advantage to play Stadium two times in a row um but also

Sometimes it’s turned out like oh I had to play you know the the tough I’ll say toughest but I’ll kind of qualify it with they’re all easy it’s just the toughest of the three it’s like the three goofy Dragon meme this one is slightly less goofy um but you know sometimes it’s

Like well I had to play the tough course course when it was a little windier or something the weather was bad you can get screwed over like that but for the most part I don’t think it matters a lot how your rotation sets up they’re all very very Resort you know courses like

You said because we have the proam stuff we’re not going to have really difficult pin placement so scoring is going to be pretty heavy we’ll we’ll have a little tougher pin placement on Sunday once we jettison the amateurs but you know for the most part the the course defenses

Are the hazards on the stadium course there’s some big hazards and the greens are a little tougher on Stadium um otherwise Nicholas is like hey here’s some wide Fairways and some par fives that you can you know a lot of people gonna be putting for Eagle on Nicholas

And then you know even even linta the fairways aren’t quite as wide but the rough just isn’t tough like there’s very few defenses there are going to be easy courses we’re going to see a lot of scoring um and you know that’s I guess it’s kind of all I have to say about

These there’s not a ton to talk about this week with these you know with these golf courses we’ll we’ll see how they play um Ron talks about his preview you guys talked about it yesterday the the Agronomy of the greens um we’re kind of in the in the

Dormant season for the for the grasses that you’d normally see here in the summer so it is just going to be a lot it’s not quite bent grass level greens but damn near it’s close they roll pretty pure so you’re not going to see difficult bumpy putting like we will see

With some of the West Coast POA and what you see with even the granny bermudo that we saw the last few weeks yeah yeah these are pure pure and small greens so um you know guys got to take advantage and you got to make uh the par fives you

Got to clean up on and make Eagles the eagle rates are astronomical comparison to uh you know do typical tour vent and uh yeah I mean I think you got got to take advantage if you are hanging a 70 or high 60s especially unlike Lita you’re you’re probably in trouble so it

Does make for I think some interesting live ads um if you’re watching and you like to get into that market you like to add outrights live I think it is important to understand what’s been going on we’ll add those obviously for subscribers in the Discord as the week

Goes on I’m gonna have a pretty I mean I might allocate the same amount um pretty short card um part of what I’m doing here I P personally just have not had a ton of success at this event so I don’t want to overextend might want to look

You know for different ways to attack it versus uh thinking that I’ve solved it part of that is just we have this in California we get these multiple course rotations at this time of year proam elements trying to jam in with less daylight you know 18 holes and all these

Things is why we have the the three course uh situation but yeah just harder for me I typically we like to have more data we have literally no data on some of these so it’s a little bit harder some and something I did want to look at too you talk about live

Betting you know those tweets that you get from PGA Communications yeah that you know like Bolton will retweet and some of those that show the pin placement is that something they stick with for the first three days like everybody gets to play the same pin placement at

Linta because it’s a whole new group of folks rolling through like why would you take the time to you know move it on a normal tournament for the variety for the for the challenge to ramp things up for the weekend and I I can see them changing the pin placement of Stadium

Course from Saturday to Sunday obviously for the you know put the championship pins in but I’m curious is like if we do get the same pins every day I I hadn’t really thought about that I wanted to go look that up it’s on my list of things

To figure out because I think that can affect you know some of the live ads you want to make if you know the rotation and I mean the rotation is pretty simple I uh I always write it down so I have a little cheat sheet because if one of the

Courses is playing even easier than normal or more difficult than normal and you know where you’re you know some of these guys are headed you’re looking at the prices it’s definitely worth something to factor in because they’re all gonna score but you know there’s a

Chance they just don’t do a great job of you know placing some of these pins and a couple of the holes play even you know a quarter or a half shot easier this year and had thought of that and I think it’s a interesting interesting point see

If we can dig in and and find that out I would I would think surprisingly they would probably would leave them I wouldn’t move them yeah you be like these are different people it’s fine just leave them like we got Fairways to Mo Guys we got things to do the sun

Sun’s not even up yet it’s uh we don’t have daylight so all right let’s uh Keith stats you want to talk Keith stats for a minute before we bring up the model or what yeah uh well what are you looking at I mean it’s it’s tough right

It’s like it’s there’s some less than driver stuff here you you we know how spiked putting weeks are going to matter hard to model hard to kind of pinpoint those out like any course you need to be dialed in with your wedge game um you

Gotta be able to score right so we need like birdie or better um I want to look at some like Pete Dy stuff I think can matter some small green stuff some West Coast stuff um in terms of just like overarching statistics approach um bird your better rate those are kind of the

Things I’m I’m honing in on I’m not trying to like over complicate things this week yeah a lot of scoring stuff I believe just like last week everyone’s going to be looking at birdie or better rates everyone’s going to be looking at maybe maybe some around the green stuff

To a lesser extent but again with the approach but less important with uh you know just the wide openness of this course probably par five scoring as we mentioned par five bird your better rate perhaps if you want to get even more granular um it is going to be another one where

You know we’re we’re always light on putting but towards the beginning of the year I am using it a little more where you need some guys that are able to putt you can look at you know we can split it out by putting on the wet West Coast or

Putting on the you know on some of these desert courses to try to pick up the guys who’ve putted well on the you know on the dormant greens like this um not really a big proximity range I want to Zone in on it’s going to be you know 150

200 on a lot of these but I think it is going to be proximity birdies are better A lot of scoring things and then probably just overall ball striking for me yeah uh question in the chat here have we ever had a firsttime participant win here um I believe so um we’ve also

Had some guys that like played here A bunch never performed really well and then win so I think there has some familiarity so like it’s not like necessarily a sticky course history place also have the recent trend of guys playing at least once in Hawaii yeah you kind of speak in my

Language too like menu I know some of the fields were slightly less but he he kind of uh yeah he’s kind of I don’t know coming in with form it’s weird to say coming in with form when you’re at the beginning of the year because you have to you know look

At relative strength of fields with some of the Fall events or with some of the guys or even some of the guys that went and did you know some of the the DP World Tour stuff or were playing the fall in some different spots or you know

Eventually we’re going to get to the spot where the DP guys start coming over and it’s not all at once like it’s just like oh hey you know we we get to Florida in a couple weeks and actually more like a month and then a few guys

Start to come over and you got to start to sort that out so it’s hard but yeah as Kobe’s pointing out Mino is kind of dialed in man yeah he’s got his Lululemon look he’s looking fresh playing playing hot I’m a I’m a mmoo guy this week yeah I mean look if you’re

Gonna look at any die stuff uh minu I would say nearly won but it was in the final group on Sunday at the Players uh collaps pretty early in that one against Scotty but uh you know not a guy that would profile there but look you’ve seen some Aussies uh play pretty

Well on die courses too whether it’s the you know familiarity with the grass good West Coast guys yeah he’s uh he’s definitely humming and makes some sense so uh yeah let’s uh let’s bring up the the rabbit hole here we’re going to talk about this want to if you’re not

Familiar uh this is our new customizable officially licensed PGA Tour database where you can do all sorts of stuff with all the best data from the tour uh and we have lots of filters features and customization pieces that you will not be able to do anywhere else we’re going

To run through some of that today uh there are again you can head over this is really free on the site to kind of run down all the things that are included in the rabbit hole in terms of filters conditions you cannot find anywhere else the ability to download

Into a CSV is fantastic uh again some unique filters and customization that I think you can find really really valuable also super exciting is we have partnered with our friends over at Vivid picks obviously Vivid is a familiar name if you’ve ever bought tickets in the secondary Market uh Vivid seats same

Company uh and they have a pick them game similar to some other ones out there in terms of you know pickham DFS whatever you want to call it uh a faux sports betting matchup basically type Market they will start to have golf here very soon we’re hoping this week uh a

Simple new depositor five $ deposit and play through Vivid picks you use our promo code bsps golf you can click straight off the links here on the site and you can get a free subscription to bsps golf for the entirety of the 2024 season get access

To the Discord all the picks all the plays in The Rabbit Hole to do your own research uh we have our DFS Optimizer coming very very shortly with new projections we’ll have a matchup tool as well if you like to bet head to heads uh again you can head over to betsports

Golf.com and find this article on the top of the screen to find out how to take advantage important too Vivid is only available in about 27 States if you are not located in one of those States simply DM us on Twitter at bets Spurs

Golf you can DM me Andy Ron CLA at PJ splits 101 and we will set you up the best available promo promo code so you can get access to the site for for cheap we obviously can’t match the $5 doll deal but we can be pretty aggressive and

Make sure we can get uh access to you to be able to play around with the rabbit hole and uh again make your uh your betting season a lot more fun we’re excited about it you can also contact us on email here contact bets group.com we

Can help you uh take advantage of it so all right let’s uh let’s build a model let’s do it you can see if you’re looking at this for the first time very straightforward uh at the top you can see we are looking at the golfers displayed here for the field you can

Mess around with lots of different views from a Strokes gain standpoint you get into all these scoring metrics putting all the things we’re going to do mess around with the time frame mess around with the rounds we’re going to play around with all of it here uh Andy what

Should we we want to capture some sort of like overarching Strokes gain total type metric too just to make sure we’re we’re not missing out you know the getting too granular and not looking at the best guys in the field right yeah I don’t know I I was thinking of either I

Built my model and I just I anchored it withg total but I I I think you could do like a take a year just last year’s you know SG total or um Strokes gain ball striking just you know give me who would the best ball strikers for last year

Give that like a 25% weight just so you’re not going to have people flying up your your model ring because the worst thing you want to do is and me it depends what your end use is I guess you know if you’re looking for something really granular to use as

Like a some sort of tiebreaker it’s fine having weird guys pop up at the top of your model but I don’t like it when Scotty sheffer’s at a tournament I build a model and he’s like 48th because picked I’ve picked some very small sample random stats that in there you

Know he should be near the top he doesn’t have to be number one but putting something like total or and look I mean just looking at the sort sort by salary so these you know these are basically odds so if you you see the guys near the

Top you know look down the total column lot of heavy green at the top look down you know ball striking obviously D Jason day and Men Le a little lower but you’re going to get a lot of the guys so probably total is your best bet for this

Um just you know last year’s total Strokes game is basically probably a probably a better ranking than the owgr yeah if you wanted some sort of anchoring can see all it’s du to add it to the model simply click the add button the plus button here you can add a

Description for yourself and your notes you’ll see where that populates um but we’ll keep it moving here because we’re not going to add too too many things mostly for yourself um yeah I think that captures a little bit we should I think we should do something that is capturing West Coast Golf or

California specifically do you have any any thoughts yeah I mean go go to the filters okay and you know we we can look at just the event season we can just click the West Coast season obviously something like that only includes a few tournaments so even if we’re looking at

Last 12 months we’re only going to get you know a few tournaments so this is something you maybe want to go out to two or three years I mean you could you could go five years if you wanted but I’d say two or three you click on three

You’re GNA get uh you know how guys played on the West Coast Swing you know that is going to be the AMX Pebble Beach um Farmers what have you so it’ll give you kind of a a little bit of a a feel for how the overall performance of most

Of the guys in the field were at these events over the last couple years I don’t know if you wanted to go more Grand than that you could do you know just like putting I mean putting is right there it’s one of our you know the core Strokes game metrics how did guys

Putt on the west coast but you know ball striking total putting whatever you want to do here even approach interesting here too Scotty who we typically obviously the only struggle ever is random or putting weeks uh over a you know 40 round sample here in the

Last three years on the west coast uh six in Strokes game putting which is uh something that I would not have expected but again I also feel good about this too like we’re not looking to build a model that lands with u you know Canley sheffler and schafle at the top but

There’s a very clear to me big three this week uh I guess you can make the case that Sanjay uh is fourth in that and I feel good about the fact that these guys are coming in on top so um yeah let’s let’s uh we’ll capture this as this is uh just

California I’m going to put this in uh just for us West Coast last three years all right we have some fairly easy scoring conditions here and that’s you know we can either do look into uh like filtering by that as a condition or we can do you know just capture bird your

Better scoring type matrics you have a preference yeah we could go to easy scoring conditions so get rid of West Coast try to capture anytime anyone was playing on a course where the scoring conditions were easy or very easy click them ball everything we can uh you know

It’s going to include your Detroit’s probably your 3m’s some of the other spots where scoring Goes Bananas and again it depends how far you want to go back on this maybe somewhere between one and two years on this looking at uh how how the guys in the field have scored relative

To the rest of the field when everybody was scoring or at least you know it was above average scoring rounds for you know the field in general yeah look at that the postman the postman taking advantage kley Shuffle sheffler still well up there weird um you know we’re

Not breaking ground on those guys being the class of the field but it’s fun how the names kind of changed Cam Davis popped up a little he’s a guy I bet against last week um yeah Cam Davis I guess I guess I see it yeah and has played well on some of

These uh these smaller less than driver courses actually which is uh yeah interesting see some of the names that do pop out that were in the at the top for the other ones we are seeing obviously Eric Cole dialed in anything that’s capturing anything Strokes game total because his

Short games have been so damn good uh he is gonna be popping here as he is uh Taylor Montgomery came into this event last year on fire and um fla with the top has been pretty poor otherwise but again easy courses he’s made as hey because he can get white hot with the

Putter Stephen jger Jason day JT again we’re seeing for the first time here and again you could see here it’s capturing uh this number of rounds which I think is interesting here as well so we will look here uh this is let’s we’ll add strok G total uh easy very

Easy you can see here uh this little red dot here if you’re watching with us on YouTube get the it tells you that you have a condition that is selected and it actually will tell you what those are here as well which makes it easy for you

To understand what’s on and what isn’t you can X them out uh you can reset all uh just to make sure that it all goes away so you’re not like getting too granular in terms of having multiple conditions Set uh and getting a little bit ahead of yourself so all right

Scoring what should we do scoring wise probably just some bird or better metrics um I I’m I don’t want to too wild outside of what we’ve done already so some birdier better percentage and then probably some par five stats to throw in there because again if you’re not a guy who’s been

Able to take ADV there’s so many different ways to score and be good at par fives some of it is hey I’m massive off the tea and when there’s a par five that I can drive it 350 400 maybe if we’re looking at you know last week or

Two weeks ago that’s uh you know that’s a way to do it there’s some guys who just have really good accuracy middling middling drivers but they’re great with their long approaches well so I think par five efficiency in general kind of captures different you know it’s going

To be different ways to find yourself with the eagle putts yeah I like here you see here in the drop down menu uh they have putting we can get into putting ranges specifically we’ll capture some of the scoring and as Andy was touching on we have efficiency

Metrics for part three part four part five scoring as well let’s just look at scoring here real quick um bir your better rates uh you can capture bird or better rate from the Fairway From the Rough uh I don’t think we need to worry about pogy avoidance

Per se uh Eagle rates I think is just interesting to kind of glance here we don’t have to add anything but uh let’s see last six months Grayson Murray weird very weird uh what are we getting last six months we’re not we’re getting a pretty small sample of uh of rounds for some

Guys let’s let’s look at 12 rounds minimum lot not a lot of golf yeah maybe we go to 12 yeah let’s try to include more of more of last year’s season otherwise you’re barely getting back into like the playoff yeah playoffs is not making Grayson Murray uh 35 I mean

Pretty decent sample size here uh what about just over what are you on efficiency what what’s your I’m just in P I’m in scoring just looking I went on to look at Eagles just just as a see if there was anyone that was surprising pull up pull up birdie your better

Percentage just the the F the left G there Kevin kizner that’s why you’re 6,000 on DraftKings Cole a yeah toasty toasty small round sample but uh a name that we’re gonna probably be saying a little more this year toasty is a guy that is I think he’s your I

Didn’t think I’d use won and done this year and here I am using him at the Windom kind of guy sure if he can keep his head on straight he runs a little hot he does um yeah this is interesting too like looking at this in comparison

Like I wouldn’t want to like overfit anything and look at birdie re better Fairway versus rough knowing that like the rough here is very different in terms of like like it’s just not a lot of like thick deep rough so even that I’m not super worried about but

Interesting to see some of these guys here uh you know lexander popping here from birdie or better rate from the Fairway uh at the very top he’s top five here as well obviously Scotty uh doing Scotty things AE is a name that is interesting uh and some other names here

That I would not have expected I guess AE makes sense AE is a guy who will have some psycho scorecards sure bird or better percentage you know a lot of Birdie or better percentage is like hey I had six birdies and you know 12 bars

Or Au is like I had nine birdies and nine bogeys you know we do have some we do have some you know [ __ ] up cards from that guy sometimes so um yeah let’s add it let’s add birdies are better let’s do it and then that that’ll include Eagles so you

Have a little bit of overlap a little bit of double counting on par five scoring but yeah let’s add let’s add part five scoring as well okay probably be the last thing we do here part five scoring five last thing I do you want par five average or do you want birdie

Rate kind of thinking about it we’re we’re not looking for you know someone who’s okay or above average we need a guys who are absolutely taking advantage of the par FES almost every time okay like pars you’re you’re losing Strokes to the field if you if you have

A bar absolutely yeah going to take advantage we we’ll add part five birdie a little double counting but we can factor that in all right once we have all the things that we would like added you simply click this create mixed condition model we’ll bring you into a

New tab here you can see the five things that we’ve added will default to these weights but we can do anything we want again I added a couple descriptions since we have a a handful of Strokes gain total I wanted to clarify uh understand at least when we’re in this

Menu here what those would actually be so what do you want to do is there you want to adjust any weights because we’re getting pretty heavy birdier better in terms of let’s drop let’s go 25% on the top one let’s go 25 for that’s our anchor that’s just

How did how did they play last year the next one is how did they play on the west coast the last three years I think that’s probably fine if not maybe something that should be a little lower um on easy scoring conditions that’s probably fine too so we’re sitting at

105% here um I guess yeah put the put the West Coast stuff up to 25% as well and then maybe we drop the last two to 15 downweight them a slight bit yeah we’re still C I did one on my tablet the other day at uh with this when I was at

The jump park with the kids nice wasn’t uh it wasn’t too tough I had the little pen though the stylus helps a lot so let’s give it a name let’s call it the you know the betting show model if you are you know already a subscriber you

Can go find this under the expert rankings we’ll save this so you can go take a look at this later on if uh you know it’s hard because you can’t you can’t click around on this while we’re doing it we’re controlling everything so if you didn’t want to go book look at

This later it’ll be saved under the expert rankings as BSG show Das AMX so let’s save it yep so what actually what he’s talking about right here you could see view expert rankings and you click on this you’ll be able to see anything that we have so you can already get the

Model that I created Andy is in here too and one from Ron uh as well so which is uh nice and easy for you to see again you want to see where do we have similarities where do we differ uh which is you know I think pretty a pretty

Valuable resource and when you get down into it as well you could see here I have all all your past models save There’s No Limit um so you want to go ahead and see what you have down here uh you could save all your previous models

You can build you know have some just straight up off the te models you could see uh accuracy models you can build some just like Baseline form stuff take a look at that running each week save as many as you’d like all right we will save and generate and let’s see what’s

SP top I think we’re gonna get Scotty shuffler to the top which I think is probably the right way to do it Patrick gantley all right Sun Scotty sunj Z Vander feno wraps up your top five which I think is uh is really interesting if you aren’t sure

You want to just see here you can see it Strokes total if you hover over the little icon here uh it will tell you all your little filters this is what we have so we’re looking here in this instance last 12 months Strokes gain total uh we

Looked here into West Coast events over the last three years Strokes gain total so that’s there for you too in case you forget so yeah Canley at the top Scotty behind him sunjay top three obviously made a ton of birdies last time out at the century H Xander fow Cole Windam

Clark Jason day Tom Kim JT Poston rounds out the top 10 um no real surprises I mean the order we can obviously him and ha about but no one that’s really surprising to me that’s inside the top 10 postman’s been playing really good golf and you know I think probably is is

Earned his way here and and you look in terms of DK salary as you mentioned earlier kind of as an indicator as well you know almost like a betting Market in a sense so yeah not surprising let’s see here uh hadwin this is you know Adam

Hadwin open he has come here and fared very well historically zal is still going to be grabbing uh you know good golf zal uh and you know we’ll get there we’re just not probably not there yet soal tus would make me a little bit nervous here uh can roll it in here’s

Cam Davis again and you screw up you see Justin Thomas let’s remember one of our you know one of our weights here is how did you play you know a fifth of this model is how did you play over the last three years on the west coast that’s why

Justin Thomas I mean looking at that that dark green number for him that’s back when he was good you know obviously after last year’s struggles it’s not like he was terrible at the beginning of the year either it really started to kind of snowball through the springs so

Obviously everything you do take with some context just like Nan said with zot Torres some of that is pre- injury z um reports are not great from his camps right now somebody I’m avoiding and actively betting against probably as we go we’ll see who he’s matched up against

Um I don’t know any uh any Wagers do you want to talk Wagers yeah let’s talk Wagers let’s uh bring this down here I look at the top of the board is guys that we would expect to be at the top of the board and there’s some names

In here that are interesting I just wasn’t in love with a lot of the prices and I’d love to get your thoughts because I don’t know if you’ve gone to the window or if you have any thoughts but Scotty is obviously at the top of the odds board basically five to one 550

In some spots uh Chris is even shorter than that uh Canley has separated a little bit from uh Xander they were kind of basically together at at nine at open we’ve seen some drift uh kley kind of holding there Shuffle getting a little bit longer it’s almost his own tier and

Then you get another tier of guys in that next range with sunjay leading that JT you’re you know you’re not getting you’re talking about bad JT we’re not getting bad JT discounts here we’re getting JT at 22 uh to 27 I guess in the marketplace and again like when I’m

Thinking about good JT this would profile as a place he didn’t come a lot but like look Wayward drives aren’t that problematic uh he can get himself into Edge range very easily he is fantastic uh in that instance and has been a one of the best if not the best birdie maker

On tour since he’s come into uh you know being a regular Tour player so unfortunately we’re paying the freight as if he did not have the 2023 season that he had so that’s a little tough for me a minwu love I get 25 Rich again you’re paying for that for yeah Mino

Might be more of a matchup bet kind of thing for me depending on who he against or maybe a top 20 kind of look that that number is very rich to have him lower I mean basically in the you know the he’s Tom Kim Price like he’s Sam Burns price

He’s Eric Cole Price It’s a little little short I like the guy it might be matchups or positional stuff for him maybe a live bet but yeah off the top like just looking at what I liked and looking at the numbers it was minu it

Was Tom Kim and it was probably you know maybe even Sam meric Cole again or Poston poston’s 3750 at Chris maybe a look for me I haven’t really pulled the trigger on much outrights it’s been mostly matchups as I usually bottle this part of the season anyway on on I think

I’ve been cursed since last uh Century where I had the huge lead with you know La two years ago when I had the huge lead with marawa and he bottled it and my outrights have been just uh kind of a lot of Bridesmaids I

Went full noon in on that for a while so I kind of took it easy in this uh in this part of the calendar but no those are guys I’ve looked at for sure I’ll run some I got to run some extra models here and a few other things before I get

All my matchups figured out that’s something I’m GNA focus in on this afternoon into this evening I’ll have uh if you if you subscribe to the golf newsletter I’ll have a I’ll probably put a couple in there I had some good feedback from somebody who’s like hey

You didn’t put where you bet this it’s like that’s cuz I bet it at bookmaker and it’s like you know this is something that’s uh if anyone uses a betting screen you know spank Gods Don best it was like I try to stick to one that’s on

The screen that’s going to be in the the the the list the big list so it’s going to be on all the paper heads it’ll be on bookmaker it’ll be on BET online it’ll be on probably Caesars um but it’s weird because uh you know the a lot of the

Legals just put random matchups like that not on the board not something that’s at other books like just whatever they want to put up a lot of them put three-way matchups which are kind of goofy too so I am gonna but I’m gonna dig into DraftKings and FanDuel offering

And maybe try to put something in the newsletter that people who have legal betting options actually can find yeah definitely a hopefully a gain for domestics this this year I’m probably not uh but yeah there’s definitely opportunities put some more matchups out there it’s interesting some books too didn’t really participate in I

Like top 40s uh we didn’t really get those at a lot of places last week but we did get like more to I think better to make the cut prices which I liked you know I lik I I’ve subbed out my uh t40 parlays for make the cut parlays and

Went two for two last week so maybe I can go uh if I have some guys down the board that I like to make the cut maybe that’s a an Avenue that I explore a little bit so um place for me I’ve made two I’m making one at the top of the

Board that I haven’t made yet I’m kind of letting it drift I’m gonna I think I’m going to bet Xander um yeah I didn’t like it at nine I was really frustrated to see it open at nine but we’re out to 12 on DraftKings I’m gonna I don’t know I don’t think it’s

Gonna go back I think maybe we can drift a little bit so um I probably play Xander at 12 but I’m gonna hope I get a little bit of a longer number um just the best I mean the best price of the big three guys uh California kid

Who’s played really good golf throughout his career here uh did not make the trip to PGA West for like a six years or so came last year finished third played really well um he just he’s played good golf in California played really well in Easy conditions as we kind of ran

Earlier uh really good year last year just didn’t find the winner circle like ran into buz saws uh Wells Fargo with um how wiam Clark played RBC Heritage was in the mix as well almost made that play off with speed and Fitz finished solo third there played really well again

Another Pete die track TOUR Championship uh another one and just again Vic got him played really good golf tried to catch Vic and Vic pulled away again but like best year ever stroke G approach best year ever Strokes game putting just a tad worst in his best overall Strokes

Game total year but didn’t win I think he’s gonna win couple this year think we get off the mat here pretty quick in in 2024 so I’m going to go to Xander I think at the very very top of the board that pushes everything else I did way

Way down but that would be uh again just because I don’t love the other guys like you talked about like I like Tom Kim I like men wo but like there’s just not enough of a a gap for me from where we are with with Scotty kley and and

Xander yeah I I’m not there with the top of the board but I agree with everything you said I just hate betting favorites I you know how I am it’s just it’s it’s not something I do love it’s got he’s probably the play but

Do I want to get to I want to pay five to one for a guy at a spot where like we need to get to like almost 30 under it’s probably not the Scotty place so getting Xander and more than double that I feel he has you know better than double win

Equity um so I’m gonna will willing to do it so then I’m gonna go down the board all the way to Cam Davis I got an 80 on Cam Davis hold up hold up the whole time you’ve been talking I’ve been working on this give it to you give it to you give

It to you it sound bar now so we have that I love it love it yeah X I’ve never had good luck I feel like I bet him at the maybe the waste management two years ago maybe the one that sheffler won God who was the who was that uh theala where

He was almost he was almost there and I had Shuffle it was Shuffle sheffler thala and I don’t think I’ve bet on since maybe I have yeah what uh what are we thinking down the board because it is a better field but man there’s some good names

And some big numbers I went all the way to Cam Davis back to back yeah cam cam who we uh we talked about popped earlier for us and is what 20th in the model that we ran on the site uh part of that is he’s he’s getting a bump for uh really strong

Performances on easy and very easy scoring conditions the interesting thing with Cam Davis is like so he got his one win at the rocket mortgage where you you got to go low but kind of a you know bombers track there uh but you look at the rest of his places where he’s played

Really well I’ve been like die tracks he played really well historically at the RBC Heritage played really well at the Players um some like less than driver stuff where you need to score is I think been a good spot for for C Davis so I

Took an 80 you know there’s like 50s in the market I wouldn’t have been super excited at 50 hey you got a good number yeah I can’t be mad at you I was mad at you at first this is a dumb B but no 80

80 is a great number yeah yeah like I think Fitz you real first round leader last year I mean uh last week and then kind of you know fell back a little bit but yeah and then I went all the way Andy went to bomb with a mindset of like

Hey Adam long uh Andrew Landry Hudson Swafford have won here against you know decent Fields I went sord H sford twice I know yeah he’s just like a really shitty Harris English is a hair yeah Hudson Swafford is uh it always makes me think of the Master’s bit from uh uh

What’s his name he does like the what’s going on where got Chris Vernon Chris Vernon Chris ver yeah what’s going on out a you got a country club name you got a country club game yeah I love uh Hudson Swafford uh yeah so shout out to Chris Vernon that’s

Fantastic content always on uh on Masters uh Thursday but yeah it went all the way down to Sam Ryder at 200 to one uh Sam Ryder also played good golf on the west coast he is actually tops to field in Strokes game approach in the

Last 36 rounds he’s top 10 in the last year we’ve seen Spike putting weeks they typically have happened here on the West Coast so at 200 to one uh he’s definitely going to be on the card from a finishing position bet standpoint he’s probably not winning but

Remember last year like what 54 whole leader at the farmers again like in put like he can he’s had some nice rounds last two times out top 10 top 13 so uh I was surprised he was the first my first betat that I made Monday morning I I

Like Sam Ryder looking at stuff had the time on Sunday night and it’s a big number though 200 is a big big number yeah so oh that’s a good that’s a good one it’s all I got when I’m going to the top obviously with Xander you you know

You kind of shorten the card a little bit so yeah if I had to do some outrights probably Poston Kim you know near the top of the board and then maybe homeless hubard okay I get there let me uh let me see what I don’t know what my best price

Would be 120 at Chris which means so chis Chris is going to have when you get above a hundred they don’t tend to be like two three 400 on some of these mid-range names you go hunt around I bet I can find 150 175 so I’m gonna look around on hubard just

Kind of looking at the the course fit model I built I gotta look at how he played but he’s not horrible as far as you know if you just look at his overall performance last year good approach player middle of the pack power five guy but the the putting is there the greens

And regulations there and he’s he’s just kind of a this is probably a good top 50 bet or top 50 top 40 bet you know maybe I will I will do some uh positional stuff this week 175 on Caesars 170 on yeah so gotta look at maybe I kind of

Gotta bet him now nothing worse than talking about somebody during a show and oh yeah and and come Sunday I’m watching football and I’m pissed as I don’t you know I don’t actually have that 175 ticket on a on a guy who’s like in the

Second to last group oh I be just it ruins your whole day so at least gotta go you know you gotta put a sawbuck on him yeah that’s that’s why I have to click uh Sam Ryder in an event where you know Scotty sheffler is up but I’m like

I know I’m gonna bet on Sam Ryder to win this event like I can’t not have it because God that would be that’s a miserable experience so MJ Taylor Montgomery first round leader don’t hate that first R leader tough and I feel like even though the courses are similar

In difficulty and scoring average is not going to be that different I feel like you’ll have three first round leader markets up which suppresses the numbers because you’re only going up against like 40 48 players but that’s fun because you can you know you can take some single shots on three different

Courses I enjoy that it makes it difficult to track as far as that goes you kind of just let it sort itself out for 90% of the day and try to figure it out later on I did build a spreadsheet the one year I did go heavy on some

First round leaders on multiple courses like this on a West Coast event and I had to build a spreadsheet that pulled in a leaderboard but then also colorcoded People based on what course they were on for me it took me like 30 minutes to make this to make it happen

But it was it’s like otherwise I just won’t know how these guys are doing or I’ll I’ll be freaking out when I see a guy oh he only has one guy in front of him and you know the whole time you’re wondering if they’re on the same course

But yeah it should be three different markets that’s a lot of fun maybe maybe a fun one we’ll do later this week we we Pro I think we asked this stupid question last year and I don’t know what it is but can we can we can we parlay first our

Leaders that’s I don’t know about locals but that feels like a I mean that feels like a bada B dog thing like they let you parlay a lot of stuff you can I you I mean I’ve I’ve parlayed to win a golf tournament with you know to win a golf tournament yeah

If it’s two different events during the same week you would think they’d let you go I’m I’ll go check that out for sure pavada slash Canadian bodog because we have Aaron Ry in the in the event here you know Aaron Ry always loves to Big Thursday guy you know that

Feels like a one leg of your part of and then you find someone else you like uh you know Ry loves a good first round leader sweat so not bets for me I don’t I don’t uh I don’t dabble first round leaders but hey to each their own you

Know sometimes they just don’t like fun I don’t bet uh first touchdown bats or touchdown bats either but uh yeah it’s all good and five dimes you could have yeah you’re 100% right Matt yeah five dimes used to be where we place the 25 leg to make the cut

Master’s parlays it always got ruined by one dip [ __ ] who was going home with like it’s like oh man I mean Larry m or Sandy ly you know this guy almost made the cut and you missed it so ah man I had uh to win

5K uh 10 leg make the cup parlay last year at the farmers and the only leg that didn’t make it was my oneand done and my topof the board outright pick of will zures um every other leg Mak it and made it uh that was very very very

Painful so yeah but yeah those are fun I like to make those every week they’re fun for sure yeah even like the you know the two three leggers to make the cut you you can get some good golfers down at you know plus 120 plus 130 whatever save the math conversations for a

Different show but that’s all I got buddy you got anything else for the people yeah no I think that’s it obviously check us out over bsur golf.com um runs previews up you can read you know most of it some of it the stats data is behind the pay wall but

Again hey if you’re gambling on golf every week what even if you can’t do Vivid it’s 20 bucks a month it’s like five bucks a tournament like it’s not not asking a ton if you want to take advantage of some of the premium features over on the site so and if you

Do want to go through the Vivid thing you can get it for five bucks a year and I mean some people have gone to links to not pay $200 a year and just be able to get that for five bucks if you are not in a vivid state but you

Are near a vivid State you can drive across the border to sign up and put five bucks into to play and they will send you a code to get a full year of betsports golf for free um obviously costing you just the five bucks you had

To go play over there if you know someone who’s in a you know in a state you can have them sign up and meet the requirements using our codes like just there there’s a there’s some ways around we just we’re just trying to get Vivid their signups and they obviously is

Sending you the code so ask us if you have any questions our DMS are open at andd msfw Ry nunin at PGA spits 101 and at bets golf on the Twitter machine and for us we’ll catch you during the tournament see you guys