2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Betting Odds | Fantasy Golf

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
1:01 Quick Info
7:20 Course & Stats
15:03 History
22:15 Field
25:50 Key Stats/Stat Model Results
36:10 Course/Mixed Conditions
54:04 Guess The Betting Odds

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A Mayo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience Farmers Insurance open picks the research the modeling jumping into everything the research tools that you need to hopefully pick a winner at Tory Pines this week remember to smash the like button and sub to the channel

While you’re here my walkth through will be powered by fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off any of the packages and you’re going to be seeing a new look at Fantasy National very soon and you’ll be able to see it on the show as I have the beta

Version of what’s going on and try to walk through that as I do my research this week to try to make everything a bit more convenient plus some new tools to be added times over the next few months as well final time that we’re probably going to see the Farmers

Insurance open for Tory pin because it looks like farmers insurance is leaving the golf game not shocking to tell you the truth but here we are and this is going to set off probably the best four-week stretch in golf all season long I for a while worried that farmers

Was going to be the tournament that got left by the wayside with an elevated event moving to Pebble Beach because normally during this four-week run where you have Farmers Pebble Waste Management then Tigers tournament at Riviera everyone just skips Pebble Beach so most people play the farmers you know not

Everyone because it’s not a designated event you don’t have to show up but then everyone skips Pebble it was a designated event last year so everyone played in Phoenix but a lot of players play in Phoenix anyway to begin with and then everyone because it’s a designated

Event plays at Riviera so now you’re obligated essentially to play Pebble Beach and Riviera but taking a look at the field this time around is really good in the field in Phoenix although it is not a designated event is still quite strong based on the early commitments

Like you’re still going to have Sheffer and Xander and Victor I mean just have having those three alone in a tournament along with everyone from the next few levels down that comes along with them makes that a really good tournament so this is going to be an awesome stretch

Then we go to Mexico and like maybe fena was playing I think fena was like the only guy in the world playing in that tournament which is great because we have those Futures on him to win at 18 to1 when that opens he might be like 3

To one depending on how this field looks but I am jazzed up for the next four weeks now the biggest thing you need to know about this tournament besides taking bombers although that may or may not be a misnomer once we dig into the research it starts on Wednesday

Wednesday to Saturday golf does not want to go head-to-head with the championship games in football that appear on Sunday now hear me out for a second football happens every Sunday during January right I I as someone who covers football I know you might not

Know that but I know that because I am a professional football Watcher and talk her about her why don’t we just play Wednesday through Saturday at every tournament in January and then you have the off week it’s Pebble Beach that’s when you make the shift back to Sunday

Because it actually works in golf’s favor for Phoenix that it ends on a Sunday because it is the official sporting lead in to the Super Bowl they they make damn sure that Phoenix is done even they schedu in a playoff time like three holes of a playoff to make sure it

Is done before the Super Bowl starts and you might say well during January the NFL runs games on Saturday along with Sunday now this is true but from you know I’m a business owner I look at competition sometimes and I think about what works best for me is it better to

Compete with one day or two days and if I think hm it’s easier for me to compete with one day and not two days I would take that route they don’t seem to want to do that like the Sony Open field last week the conclusion like the final hour

And a half was amazing it was really good me and like 78 of you watched it last week like it was goinge head to head with football and it would have went head to-head with football on Saturday I understand that but maybe some of the Friday round you could have

Got more into it as well and the stuff is appearing in prime time because it’s on the west coast anyway it makes no sense to me that this is the only one that they do Wednesday through Saturday but keep that in mind because people like get they miss one and done picks

Every year they don’t submit DraftKings lineups they forget to make bets like I’m telling you Wednesday through Saturday spread the word or don’t now spread the word listen I wasn’t going to win just cuz you’re not playing anyway but that’s where we’re standing with the Farmers Insurance open probably the last

Year of the farmers 13 of the past 15 winners of this event at Tory Pines have had a previous top 10 in their career the only two that didn’t do it was John ROM who won in his first start at the Farmers Insurance open and then Scott Stallings out of nowhere ended up

Winning this event and then he lost in the playoff the following year I think that’s the year that he was like roed out he got like busted for peeds dude’s jacked even if you look at him now dude loves the gym but yeah it was in great

Stretch that was like 2014 or something like that other than that even a Luke list had finished T10 the year before he ended up winning so know Patrick klay’s never finished inside the top 10 let’s just cross him off the list I mean it doesn’t really work that way but it’s

Just odd that you’ve had to have that sort of experience at a course and a lot of it has to do with the green complexes we’ll look and use one of the new tools at Fantasy National to dig into all of this if you want the quicker version of

This show the newsletter is where that’s at I put that out with the guest the odds on sometime on Sunday after the show is recorded and then Monday the full column all appears in that free newl newsletter so please do me a favor sub to the Mayo media newsletter on

Substack uh it’s down in the description with the quick link it’s completely free to join please share it around tell some friends about it because I need to build up that newsletter that’s where my primary column is going to exist for the foreseeable future people seem to like

That column but now they’re finding it hard to find cuz you can’t just Google Pat Mayo golf tournament and it pops up doesn’t do that so I need your help to spread it around all right appreciate that and subbing to the newsletter get you a ballot to enter the draw for the

Tambo giveaway now Tambo may not be giving away any money I have no idea how he’s doing in the king of the desert qualifier this week but if he does qualify through this week There’s only 50 people left top 15 move on if he makes that final 15 the live final is in

Phoenix and he has agreed to give away 5% % of his winnings if he finishes inside the top three now there’s a $500,000 to first prize so he might be giving away $25,000 sounds pretty good to five separate people 5K a piece and if you sub to the newsletter that’s one way

That you can get a ballot into that draw the other ways to get the ballot into the draw subscribe turn on auto downloads when you subscribe on Apple podcast or Spotify podcast for the pat Mayo experience then leave it a five-star review you can make up

Something nice or just rate it tell a friend about it pass it along maybe get double the entry split the money I don’t know what you want to do but that those are the three ways from me that you can get yourself in that and if you go to

Shipit nation.com tambos site right now and use code Mayo he’s giving away a free year to someone for the PGA product so if you ever thought about getting into it now would be the time to do it with code Mayo all right let’s talk about the course is itself Tory Pine s

Is the primary course this week you may remember it from Tiger beating Roco mediate on a gimpy knee then winning the US Open John Ram won the US Open there not too long ago very I like guess I wouldn’t say this tournament made Tiger but tiger won it

So many times I think it was like seven times he won a US Open here he’s it’s synonymous with Tiger Woods but John ROM also this course really made him a start his first career win and his first career start at this course with an amazing iconic putt on the 7c hole from

Distance for Eagle to win that tournament really vaulted him onto the map he was like oar is at the moment like man this guy is going to be really good and then boom no John ROM is here he’s a real player and then he gets his first major Championship win in La Hoya

At Tory Pine South three rounds both weekend rounds or not weekend rounds the Friday and Saturday rounds rounds three and four will be at the South course and then the players will alternate between the South and the North Course between the first two days the South course is

Almost 500 yard longer than the North Course so keep that in mind well when you’re trying to do Showdown purposes I’ll talk about Showdown here in a minute but the North Course is just easier than the South course the South course has greens that despite being poana are super fast it’s bent grass

Greens at the North Course so overall when you take a look at Tory Pine South it’s a par 72 there is shot tracker so you get shot tracker for three of the four rounds this week 7765 yards the splits in terms of draftking scoring are not as drastic as

The north course but you shouldn’t ignore it at the same time holes 8 through 10 are all easier than average with number nine being the third easiest hole on the course a 31 4% birdie or better rate those playing back to front get the second easiest hole number 18

That has almost a 37% birdie or better rate but 17 owns a higher bogey rate than birdie rate and number one has a bogey or Worse rate that’s nearly double that of the prti or better number so if you do want to try to play a streak at

The South course on the weekend now if you’re playing rounds one or two you just Target guys at the North Course make it simple on yourself and just don’t try to parse through the ones that are there but you want to play one through 18 not starting on number 10 and

Wrapping around at the South course you know the power three average distance is 208 yards the two easier par threes are on the front holes three and number eight both on the back see more than twice as many golfers overpow than under power so the bogey or the bogey or Worse

Rate is more than double the birdie or better rate um I mean we can just say birdie rate because there’s not a ton of hole in ones going on on these par 3es the average par 4 10 of them at the South course 457 yards the four toughest

Holes on the course are all power four seven of the 10 measure over 450 yards and the power fives is where you need to make it up they’re the four easiest holes on the course all of them with a birdier better rate over 30% um and then you have number 18 which

Is a real like it’s a legitimate swing I mean if you’re Kyle Stanley and you drop two into the drink when you got a two-stroke lead and bran nediger ends up winning that can happen to you on number 18 but it has the seventh highest double

Or worst rate that’s at 2% and that is the same as basically the eagle rate for the hole which is also 2% I mean you know the hole you need to hit the Fairway off the T so you can take a run at it I mean it’s the one that ROM

Eagled to win the tournament uh the pin is usually tucked away at the front and everything slopes down towards the water including where the pin is at on that hole on Sunday so most players end up hitting it over the ridge maybe you can

Get the Ridge and get it to roll back on your second shot and generate an easier Eagle opportunity but the issue ends up becoming because of the shaved off area at the front of the green where the pin is located if you do lay up and you have

Too much spin on your wedges then all of a sudden you’re sucking the ball back into the water and then you got to do it all over again uh it happens every year and it’s just like oo it’s a bit devastating to watch uh a few times can get a bit cringey that’s

What happened to Kyle Stanley fortunately for Kyle Stanley he played the next week in Phoenix I think that was 2011 2012 whenever it was I just remember it very vividly because it was the year that Spencer LaVine melted down in Phoenix then following week got the

Cacti stuck in his ass and he started smoking sigs just melting down on the back nine and Kyle Stanley took that tournament away from him Tory Pine South there’s only one round there you don’t need to be too concerned about it but 7260 yards bent grass greens there is no

Shot track CER limited cameras at that one but they will follow around they will follow around some of the bigger names once they get there the par 3 is average distance of 215 yards you just hear all of the average distances of the par 3s between the two courses over 200

Yards 200 yard proximity Is So key this week it is ridiculous when you kind of take a look back over the years and the players that perform well from that specific bucket these are four of the six toughest holes to birdie at the North Course all under 95% birdie rate including the toughest

Hole on the course which is a 249 yard it’s number three 4.5% birdie rate 28% bogey or Worse rate get through there and you’re probably going to score pretty well at the North Course shorter power force obviously when it’s a course that is 500 yards shorter the shorter

You holes come in somewhere in play the average is 426 yards on the 10 power fours and the power fivs the four easiest holes on the course all holding a birdie or better percentage over 44% since the field alternates between the courses the first two days just Target

Bombers at the easier North Course for Showdown purposes just make it easier on yourself if your golfers can start on number one instead of hole number 10 it’s a big Advantage there’s a stretch of easier holes from 9 to 12 so having hole number nine as a part of that

Rotation and draftking Showdown could be where you build up a streak now 10 through 12 again is easier you can just go birdie birdie birdie but if you start on number 10 you know maybe you’re trying to shake off some Rust especially if if it’s round one Showdown that you

Might not have your game rolling at its highest capabilities on the very first hole of the day warming up to get into that range I would prefer I have no data to back that up but that’s just personally how I would want to do it with larger greens and shorter holes a

Green of Regulation and scrambling percentage at the North Course were well above PGA Tour average three of the power fivs on the North Course also generate more Eagles than any of the power fivs on the south so that is where you want to Target when we get

To Showdown purposes for DraftKings h i mean very few markets actually have first round leader for both courses for total courses it’s usually individually but if for whatever reason you do find a site that has a split between first round or no split between first round

Leader of North and South not to say that can’t come from the south guys can score really well at the South but it’s just easier at the North that you might be able to squeeze some value that used to happen back in the day I’m talking like seven eight years ago when sites

Were first popping up and it was mainly offshore Ian it was all offshores at that time in America Canada it was all grey Zone anyway and Britain of course they were legal but now they’ve wised up a little bit and as you saw this week between the three course rotation at the

AMX you’ll have first round leader for each of the individual courses expect the same this week no matter where it is that you end up going at too bat let’s Mosey on over to fantasy national.com fantasy national.com Mayo in order to get yourself 20% off any of the

Membership levels you can see with the new redesign is going to start to look like we still have the table version don’t worry about that I just wanted to show you if you if you really like to take a look at what players look like you can do that you can see the

Tournament results and recent results in this tab just by clicking on it as well that always goes a really long way you can see that minwu has never played here he’s one of those guys with no top 10 there’s actually a few of them in the

Field this week as I mentioned Klay has no top 10 but Ryan Fox Oar hoard and minwu Lee have never played in this tournament before and that’s you know John ROM won in his first start so if you believe in the talent enough they might be well suited for this course

[ __ ] has only played at the one time the [ __ ] and R but that was in the US Open and it will play a lot differently than it did that year so that’s just a different View you that you can take that’s under the cards feature you can

Go to the table feature and it will load up what you’re normally used to seeing but let’s take a look at tournament history before we dig too much into anything as I mentioned before Strokes gain total the cor horse for the courses fena day Rose H and sunj H won a year

Ago minus 13 that was too clear of Keegan Bradley list one at minus 15 the year before that in a playoff over will ala Tes Patrick Reed won at minus 14 the year before that Mark leechman just didn’t hit any Fairways but missed the fairways by so much that he actually got

It into great areas and great angles on stamped down grass he won at-5 Rose at minus 21 the year before that Jason day at minus 10 in 2018 one of two wins for Jason day if we’re just thinking about who are the best players overall over

The past few years uh we can take a look at Patrick C or not sorry not Patrick Patrick Klay Jason day uh top 10 consecutive Farmers he’s gained almost 10 Strokes putting between that time just at the South course sunj hii and Rose all up there that’s reflected in

The Strokes gain total to take a look at last year you have H Keegan morawa sunjay Seth poor Ryder they did that interview with his mom and that was just the death of him on Sunday see you AB see you Sam Ryder but he’s been pretty

Good here he has two top 10 in the past three years so guy to look down he’s going to be very popular on DraftKings this week if the price is good enough day feno Hideki Taylor Moore just outside that top 10 cuto off but again

This you see a lot of bombers do really well here although when you go to the top you know H Bradley sunjay and M more we’re thinking more accuracy over anything but they also so there’s two kind of skill sets that you can play at

This course you can go pure bombers I do think that’s the path of least resistance here because you can beat up on the power fivs a lot easier with Advanced d driving distance however we’ve seen like molari who is back in the field this week and did T5 like two

Weeks ago at the first Dubai one he missed the cut at the second Dubai One um of note of those guys may I’ll talk about that in the field and skill set wise let’s go back to that for a second so you have your bombers pathas resistance easy stuff go on your way

When L else fails if you can find bombers who actually hit Fairways that’s really nice if you’re going to take the Fairway players guys that hit a lot of Fairways there’s a few things that you need to look at to work in compilation with that so you have accuracy players

That’s great do they also gain Strokes off the te that is one other thing that you should look at you’d want these guys to be around like average driving distance I mean to slightly above to slightly below but right in that average key and that will that will be reflected

In Strokes gained off the tea when you take a look at it because someone like Brennan Todd hits a ton of Fairways but that’s not good at a course like this CU he has literally no distance the other thing to couple together with that is proximity from 200 yard if you’re going

To hit it short you need although those are much more difficult shots there’s a lot of them at this course including the power 3es that if you’re a shorter hitter and you do have great accuracy do you also check the box of great above 200 let’s call it 175 and above you can

Be great in those two places especially 200 proximity and above then you’re playable here and you could win at this course I mean you could always just run super hot with your Putter and go along with it too that can happen but that’s the harder way to do it but you’d want

All three of those things to be true if you’re going to go with a shorter hitter if not you just go with your distance guys and you’re probably Off to the Races all right let’s jump back to Fantasy national uh and because that’s what’s happened Eric Barnes is really

Interesting by the way he’s having a decent week this week at the American Express which is not concluded you know great for uh Dunlop I hope he doesn’t win I hope Sam if Sam Burns can’t win I hope that Dunlop can win but you we had

Seen uh Eric Eric barns since the valpar and I don’t like really know what happened to him to be perfectly honest with you I guess I could look it up Eric Burns official world golf rankings like was he playing like the Asian tour or something like that I I just I don’t

Know what happened to the guy but he returned this week and he was actually pretty good uh so I thought that was strange I don’t know oh here we go what has he been doing nothing he’s been off so he’s been hurt basically since the valpar I guess I guess hurt he decided

To like take time off from golf he’s having a really good American Express in his return and was t13 here a year ago a lot of that was due to putting but you know let’s take a look at what old Eric Barnes Eric Eric is a bad bad man but maybe he

Bombs it off the tea or something like that we can find that out pretty quickly o fast moose doing some of these renovations to the site making it a whole lot faster I like that and obviously when you go into some of these sections maybe you’ve never like gone

Into these before but the individual player cards you can see all of the impact data and things like that rolling through let’s see Fairways game nope driving distance gained yep to quote Dave Hester so yeah I can see why he played well here so we can run a hot

Putter and we can run some driving distance maybe Eric Barnes is a name that we can come back to like my initial thought of the week is that Keegan Bradley is going to win so I hope that I I I hope I don’t influence that in what

I guess the odds later in the show but uh just you know he was second here last year he’s had a very good run over the course of his career listen he’s just coming off a devastating loss at the Sony Open in a playoff but he’s on like

A really nice run and shorter courses harder courses weirdly have always been better and it’s funny that the Sony ended up playing a little bit harder until the final day and that was the day where he could have ran away with it and didn’t he played better on the more

Difficult days Tory Pines in general like la like I think it was last year he was one under Friday or the first two rounds Wednesday and Thursday and then Friday and Saturday was 10 under over the weekend so weekend I when I say weekend you know what I mean I’m I’m not

Going to continue to belabor the point but that’s what I mean uh just yeah and the Putter’s been coming around the approach play was good he hits a lot of Fairways and again he’s someone who’s very good from Beyond see this is you can just again table cards view up on

Fantasy National to take a look at it anyway that is the history in the course and the stats of what we’ve been doing the field itself very very very good very very good for this tournament despite losing its sponsor uh you see oar is in the field this time around but

Overall you got hom shafley Klay Oar morawa Justin Thomas sunj minwu da zot torus Keegan Bradley Eric Cole seah Rose feno Hideki Lowry straa Burger who made the cut burger and zator both made the cut they’re both going to be in the field straa is back Taylor Montgomery

And then you got a bunch of guys coming over from the DP World Tour Nikolai hogard is playing in his first tournament on the PGA tour Ryan Fox is coming over like I said the Polish giraffe [ __ ] and Rola is playing molinar is coming over so we’re getting

A really good field it’s a full field 156 cut after thank God the cut is after 36 holes I hate these 54 hole Cuts but that’s me other people seem to like them enough so the field is very strong uh I like it uh and you can kind of dig in as

Much as you want there’s that Spike percentage I was talking about the new filter on fantasy National basically what it does and we’ll get to this when we kind of dig around with some of the players is that you can click on it and then you can set your Strokes gained

Level to whatever it is that you want per round so if you’re looking for Spike Putters like hey how often do players gain more than two strokes per round on the greens so you load in Spike percentage and it’s going to be low obviously then you go to Strokes game

Putting you can see in four rounds weighted overall in his career over the past 24 my guy AR dant D has gained over two strokes pting in half of those four rounds I have this sorted by the past 24 like minwoo is up around 40% over his

Past 24 rounds in terms of Spike putting so sometimes it’s really interesting to see like if you load in putting and then you load in you like if you put them like next to each other if you just see like hey we can go from Strokes game putting and we have it that

Way and then we go to average or we can see that total round gained versus the field and just kind of put on Nick Dunlap of course of course Nick Dunlap do I have the American no I have the fers I didn’t realize Nick Dunlap was playing again everyone’s going to play

That guy why wouldn’t you but you do the spike percentage and then you see like oh some of these guys are like legit terrible Putters however they gain a bunch when they gain like someone like Jake knap is somewhere you know his per round is you know 05

Gains so slightly above average but he gains more than two strokes putting over his 14 rounds in around 27 so more than 1/4 of the time it albeit it is a very small sample you could really wait that out if you wanted to but you know you

Can do that for approach I think this helps a lot with Showdown purposes or if you take a look at a particular course and see how guys have done it and whether you want to hold that for or against someone I mean that’s really up

To you but that’s the way that I I really liked using this one you can go to like how often do they gain more than three Strokes so there’s different levels of the spike percentage that you can go to Wilson fur he’s now Aon B but

He’s Wilson F he wded from the AMX I have no idea why it was completely random but here we are with him this time around anyway I just wanted to show off the new Spike percentage we got more and more stuff coming for you and everything should be a lot easier to use

Here in the future the near future not the distant future the near future let’s model up some things going on at Tory Pines to see how we’re doing it so I have strokes gained in so it’s a new feature I’m going to go to Tory Pines

Now you can can set your default mode as well if that’s the way that you want to use everything you just press the pin button up here and it will pin Tory Pines up and we’ll go into edit our model uh you brought it over from you know the the old collection of

Everything that we had going on with the modeling so this is the way that I had it I’m actually going to enhance Fairways G I’m going to change this around it hasn’t been the best so ball striking uh around the green because the greens at the South course are pretty

Small uh versus the north where they’re super big uh I do think that around the green because it’s a more difficult course you know like bogey avoidance around the green those things pop a little bit more so I do like around the green uh and some of these I have waited

At zero just so I can see them in the view that I have everything in but I’m going to drop down ball striking to around 11% or so and you can do this um you know in different ways if that’s how you want to go into everything because

The new filter goes through it so we’ll drop that to 11 now Strokes gained around the green what I really want to do is actually make Fairways gained we’re going to put that in where do I have driving distance 21% I’m going to make Fairways gained yeah we’ll jump

That up to 7% and we’ll drop driving distance down to around 15 so I do want a nice spot I do want driving distance to mean more but I don’t want I don’t want Fairways gain to mean nothing at the same time but one thing I do want to

Do is up this 200% we’ll put that at 10% now uh putting we got at 5% Approach at 10% but we also have ball striking to go along with it at the same time I’m going to get rid of overall power 4 cuz I do have power 4 450 to 500 weighted anyway

That key Par 3 range uh also kind of coincides with proximity 200 plus so I’ll just drop that down a little bit just so I can see it and we’ll boost up you know the power proximity 175 to 200 boost that up to 3% just to have it in there so I can

Take a look probably too much on around the green we’ll drop that down to around 12 % that kind of levels everything out so now we have driving distance at 15% that’s what you can do with the new sliders as well it will auto adjust everything for you so I like I prefer

That I like that a lot more uh that puts Fairways gained at half of what driving distance is worth so around 8% and we have a lot of different approach stats so approach in itself is weighted at 11% but we also have two proximity ranges at a total of

14% And then we have let’s see here and we have ball striking which is half off the te and half of driving so a lot of driving a lot of that so let’s update the model and load that in and see what our results are going to be for Tory Pines and this

Field we can play around so what you can see now is your model rank will carryover and your MCM like your mixed condition model will both be visible at the same time now I have nothing loaded in into the mixed condition model right now so everyone comes out the best

Except for OAR silly silly Oar I don’t know why that’s the case but you know something uh something to put up there so the model rank itself over the past 24 rounds Tory Pine’s model somehow Eric Cole is number one screw this guy man eventually he’s going to have to have a

Bad week now he has missed the cut both times that he has played at Tory pins he missed the cut last year and he missed the cut at the US Open when he played uh you can see you know the putting is really good even the proximity is really

Good he runs a hot putter this we know even though he rates out number one here it would be very difficult to trust him in my mind and it all depends on what his price is I just think it’s going to be elevated and I think I would rather

Go in a different direction with some of these guys Klay you know he has no top 10 can’t play him he’s number two morawa and that I could do we all know that and the stats finally got uh rectified shotlink was sending us bad info and they were sending everyone bad info it

Wasn’t just us so the Sentry and Sony will have proper stats going for it but it was a great ball striking week at the sentury for Mora cow dude just couldn’t put he so came in fifth you know I’m I’m a [ __ ] for morawa so of course I’m going

To you know let’s see morawa Keegan let’s keep building up Sam Stevens is a player that I really like this week uh you can see Sam Stevens he only ranks number 69 nice well that’s even nicer in the modeling but you can see shorter term he is ninth around the greens the

Driving distance in top 35 in this field he was t13 a year ago and he’s off to a pretty decent start to the year I believe he’s having a good run at the American Express now it was all chip and putting at the Sony but he did make the

Weekend uh and he didn’t lose anything and that’s a shorter course that’s never where you really like him where you want to play him are usually at longer courses corales Valero I think Wells Fargo was a place where I liked him dude just couldn’t putt to save his life

Putted very well at the South course a year ago with 5.3 Strokes gained on the greens I don’t know if that’s something that he can keep up over time but you know longer courses uh and if he can run a hot putter is generally where that you

Where you want to take him it’s been a bad run for him through the swing season but it does appear like he’s getting his Mojo his Mojo baby back just a little bit and that would be very nice to see from someone that and again a lot of

This is dependent I would guess he comes in like 200 to one 250 to one back for the past 24 rounds you do have pendrith senson theala GNA like theala this week add him to the short list more cow to the short list Oar might just absolutely

This course would like to see his his long proximity be a little bit better but you know the driving is just so Elite and it’s so accurate that he he may make minc meat of this place zorus H yab bombs Vegas Vegas has played in this tournament every year since

201 I actually used him this week and bet him at 300 to1 at the AMX a tournament he had won in the past and of course you know he’s submarine my DraftKings LS when he missed an easy putt on the 50 fourth hole his last hole

Before the cut to miss the cut on the number he’s made the cut at Tory Pines in this tournament each of the past four years including the US Open eight of the past 10 overall like I said he’s played in this tournament every year since

2011 I was going to jok that he’s a super old dude and then uh unfortunately I went and looked up his age and he is the same age as me so I guess I suppose I could start calling myself a super old dude but in sports when people have been

Around forever it just seems like they’re really old dude’s 38 I’m 38 it’s devastating stuff yikes anyway that’s Johnny Vegas but he still puts the ball way out there minwoo might be awesome at this course he is first in driving distance and first in putting and it’s

Not like the approach is bad he’s also first around the green like everything kind of shapes up he is 152nd in approach however 30th from Beyond 200 yards 30th from 157 how does he not rate it’s cuz he’s so bad in approach in Fairways but oh no sorry I had that

Wrong I was looking at Luke list who’s right below was a former winner here I was like yeah that’s that’s that’s fantastic news yeah the approach play has been just ass for MIM W Le but we’ve seen on the DP World Tour that he can get very hot in those categories as well

So and he has nothing from the Zozo the open or the Genesis so realistically when we’re taking a look at his approach he had a bad Byron Nelson a bad PGA Championship and a bad traveler still came ninth The Travelers was actually good at the US Open in terms of approach

Relatively speaking and he was okay at Colonial last year bad at the players still came in sick so weirdly enough he can have a very bad approach week yet still do enough of the other thing he’s almost like a lock except for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational somehow and a

Shorter course at the Heritage both courses which you know either have a ton of water or require a lot of strategy off the tea this one you can kind of grip and rip and that’s great for minwoo and it was nice to see him make the cut

Make some putts uh but if we can get the approach to come along with it that is fantastic news and that’s why he ranks so lowly in the modeling mainly because the approach has been so bad list isn’t HED a ton of Fairways but he is playing

Good golf at the moment that’s why he ranks 16th Burger listen burger and zot Taurus both I mean it was shock it was nice to see zator like ramping himself up I’m good to be back in on zotor maybe even Burger as well after making the cut

In his first appearance in 20 months a week ago not to say it’s going to continue to go forward maybe that there need to be a consistency playing two tournaments back to back uh might not do it for you uh maybe you’ll get a little bit tired because your body isn’t used

To it but you know if people are going to sleep on him this time around now that I’ve seen it from him and that he can do it uh I’m happy to go back to both these guys at this point who else rates well up here sunjay champ does

Pretty well second and driving distance fourth in proximity from Beyond 200 yards he had an Amer put his ball Mark in his line this week I mean that’s always the fun of playing a proam and especially the the goober proam at the American Express Bia might play every

Tournament this year if you’re drafting Underdog bball which we do have by the way uh if you go into the tournament selection and go to the drop- down menu for some reason that’s not appearing on my screen share but I can see it on my screen anyway Underdog ADP is one of the

Things that’s in there if you want to do your research and look at the latest updated ADP for under Underdog best ball drafts go check that out tusty is up there big on driving distance good on proximity and then the 450 to 300 does pretty well if we just sort by

Driving distance past 24 rounds so let’s try to throw in a mixed condition model I want to put out this sample what I want to do just trying to think here I want to go shortterm for approach so let’s I mean that will hurt minwoo but n that’s just

Going to be the case select an ingredient let’s just put the model itself in so so we’re going to throw the model in past 24 rounds into our mixed condition model and you can see how that works out right now that’s the only thing that we’re going to have that’s

Great we’ll click off of it and we’ll go back to it in a second because we’re going to keep this model in but we’re going to go to the past 50 rounds worth of data and try to see if we can Cobble together some course conditions and

You’ll like the new MCM because it when I show you in a second it will update it will update right here on the left so you don’t have to continuously go back to it but when you click on it it will give you all of the spe specifications

Of what you have inputed so you no longer need to label it anything it will tell you all the features that you have in there already so I want to go driving distance p 50 rounds gdup champ minwoo Nikolai hoard oh wouldn’t it be nice if

He could come out and get himself a win he was pretty good uh over in Dubai I didn’t see what the final result was but I believe it was T25 T9 in both Dubai [ __ ] was T10 T2 lost to Rory cuz Rory went n on the weekend so hoard Tyler McCumber

Callum Taran Oar higo Vegas Vince Norman will zaurus Matty Schmidt gotta let me down bigly bigly at the North Course on Saturday at the MX forchan Kim Keith Mitchell Woodland longdong Paul Baron bramlet Nick Hardy Chan Yu that’s Kevin Yu if you’re wondering toasty brm the panda Norman zong Taylor pendrith will

Gordon Jake knap terrible week for people being on him Eric Barnes is up there as well dietre Fox we know Fox is a bomber then you got Stam Stevens sh Kim two guys that played really well at this tournament a year ago Patrick Rogers Carl Juan crazy Carl is up there

Rico that’s only in four rounds though so I don’t know how that’s going to work out then you got like your jts and Bradley of the world so your Elite bombers aren’t at this tournament except for minwoo hoard and oar other than that it’s your middle tier and maybe that’s

Why we saw last year now thinking it through cuz it was very much the same situation a year ago why Fairways gained went higher than driving distance gained in a lot of the guys that you saw at the very top now ROM chipping himself out of the tournament probably didn’t help that

Because he was very near the top of the list in terms of driving distance but that could be a very particular reason that the very elite bombers are no longer playing in this tournament and more of the hybrid good distance great accuracy guys are playing this time

Around so just thinking this is why I like doing this research show cuz some things little light bulbs go off and we can go look that up if we want to I’m not going to do that right now cuz I don’t care enough to go look at it but I

Want to add driving distance past 50 rounds into the mixed condition model so we’re going to put in driving distance in there and you can see when it pops up now so last 24 rounds PGA Tour Tory Pines the model that I have in so that’s the model that I’ve used my

Tory Pines model is the stat driving distance is the stat last 50 rounds overall PGA Tour only so now what I want to go do is put in some very specific course conditions so let’s go to well I do have putting in here so I

Can make this easy on myself you also if you need to find courses now you just go into the bar type in Tory Pines and then type in what you want and then apply course filters makes it way easier to put everything together and you no

Longer have to hold the option button in order to gather a bunch of courses in one if that’s the way that you want to go so we only have Tory ponds you can see that one who doesn’t have anything is weighted at number uh 122 um I’ll get

Moose to make that zero going forward again this is why we’re all beta testing everything here but Tory Pines South past 24 rounds so I have all I have past 50 rounds I want to go past 24 rounds H let’s make it past 12 rounds so we’re not ripping stats from three billion

Years ago with Aaron badley just to see so past 12 rounds from Tory Pine South I just want to get the putting numbers in there as well and we can kind of take a look ah how guys have done so the best Putters in the field on an average round

Basis at this tournament and you have a bunch like Campos and Schmid have one round a piece they gained almost three strokes but Eric Barnes in three rounds is averaging averaging 2.24 Strokes gain putting per round nap only has one Sam Stevens I mentioned is up there as well

Justin Su in seven rounds 1.3 at Tory Pine South and again there’s no shot length at Tory pin North so the only data from Tory pin’s tournament from the farmers is going to come from here will Gordon in seven rounds 1.15 day Xander and badley all with 12 rounds all over a

Stroke gain per round on the greens eek root in two rounds e having a decent week again here I have no idea how he has played here in his career I guess he has two rounds so he’s probably missed the cut twice but firmers yeah missed the cut missed the

Cut game a bunch of Strokes in one of the rounds he probably played terrible at the other one so those are guys who have done very well here JB Holmes MAV mcney KH Lee sunjay Zack Blair Seb straa brt sniger pendrith Meritt Merit Mady Michael Kim Justin Thomas Chuck

Hoffman Taylor Montgomery gim Reaper all pendrith only has six but everyone else in that group has 10 or more rounds at the South Court and have all gained average of over6 Strokes gain positively per round even H and morawa end up on this if moraca is gaining Strokes putting out a

Place historically it’s only six rounds uh but it’s .5 a half stroke per round is really nice to see we can also do the spike percentage here we can go Spike percentage over two just call it two and we can look up what’s going on Strokes

Game putting wise that’s what we have it sorted by so guys again at Tory Pine South who have done very well you know Sam Stevens 67% of his round so two out of the three that he’s played he’s gained two or more Strokes putting on the green e rootes 5050 in his two

Rounds will Gordon 43% over seven rounds now guys that are actually super high so this shows that they have a lot of variance here because Holmes was up there on that list but he’s gained over in his past 12 rounds played in 42 of the in five of those rounds he’s gained

Two or more Strokes putting same as Zack Blair four out of 10 for Justin Thomas and Matthew Smith who we didn’t see up there he actually loses Strokes per round on average at the South course but gains two or more 40% of the time when you hover over the number like that you

Can see it pop up total he’s in the minuses but has gained two or more so he’s had some real bad we let’s go take a look here at what it is putting wise oh yeah so 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.2 he also has minus three minus 1.7 so he is a high

Variant swing guy uh so that’s what I like about Spike percentage taking a look at it that why I really want to put that in there one out of three for Eric barns McNeely What four out of 12 times he gains more than two strokes putting ditto with Keegan um so different guys

To get up there two out of six rounds for morawa uh is gaining two or more on the green so again just different ways you might not like this one at all uh but I’m going to add it to the mixed condition model we’re going to throw in

Strokes game putting over the past 12 rounds at Tory Pines again so you can see that it comes up there last 12 Strokes game putting Tory Pines South so that’s another thing that we can add into our mixed condition model as we kind of jig everything up what else can

We go here so let’s go Tory Pines I mean we can just go history at Tory Pines we can go to pass 24 rounds because that’s always a good thing to throw in as well like when we think about course history obviously you’ve seen a lot of the same

Guys play well here over the years so if we just go to Strokes gained do I have anything in here yeah I have strokes gain total so we’ll just take Strokes gain total from here so course history we’ll take Strokes gained total and throw that in past 24 rounds at Tory

Pines Strokes gain total pass 24 Tory Pines South it’s not the tournament itself if you want to do overall Strokes gain total you know what that’s probably we’re going to take that out and I will throw that in so we’re going to type in Tory Pines again and will take in Tory

Pines North and apply the course filters just for strokes gain total because we do have strokes gain total it’s not like official numbers but we can just wait everything against everyone else in the field and we’ll take Strokes gain total from those two courses and now we have

Multiple courses those are the two courses that we put in to do it so last 24 rounds course Strokes gain total I want to take that one out and we’ll update the mixed condition model as we go through and go along so the model rank overall once again from just these

Two courses if we’re looking at Tory Pines only Dave feno sniger Rose matama Keegan badley sunj Holmes shafley are all the ones who pop up in just these three this is what the model is technically telling us right now because that’s the one that I loaded in we take a look at Strokes

Gain SO waiting all of those just at these two courses is what we’re seeing so another good way to do the so we’re going to take those two off as we jump back to different things that we can look at in terms of course condition uh

We have POA but the POA is fast which is unlike most of the other po courses that we’ve seen let’s just take course length over 7,400 yards and load in to see who does well on those Strokes gained off the te Vegas Mitchell zuris list champ Klay feno hom

Morawa Jason day burger like a lot of guys Taylor Moore is another one who hasn’t really played well in ages but does tend to play better at longer courses Keegan so a lot of Grio a lot of guys with decent course history here toasty in only six rounds is up there as

Well Strokes gting total of that Bunch we have Stevens actually plays the best on these courses I knew I remember that from somewhere morawa Xander sunj hom all guys that have played well at this course it’s not like we have the course filters on anymore we just have past 24

Rounds at courses over 7,400 yards let’s Chuck that into the mixed condition model we’ll put in Strokes gain total of 74 and above so now we have strokes gain total 74 and above boom there we go off to the races when it comes down to this

Anything else that we want to throw in I think that’s pretty good it’s difficult to hit Fairways but over 74 just to we don’t need to throw this in I do just want to look at it with difficult to hit Fairways we can call it difficult and average

Actually just in case you know it plays a little bit easier this year who knows and we can take a look at the amount of rounds so a lot of people like Oar doesn’t have a ton of rounds and anything this Alex Bal doesn’t have a

Ton of anything with this a Strokes gain total at courses like that Xander sunj zorus lantto Stevens all guys who have played well Thomas has played well at this course and then folds on the final two rounds not entirely sure why it’s actually pretty indicative of guys that

Play well at this course too so we’ll just throw this one in for funsies uh we don’t need to wait it Bunch but we’ll just throw in Strokes gain total this way as well so now we’ve kind of gathered up enough uh that we can play

Around with this a little bit more so Tory Pines last 24 rounds that’s our model uh the Tory Pines model overall let’s just throw that in here so the sliders uh I I like this better you can view the details if you want to and just

Really go in and wait them with the ways that you want um but we can do this a little bit easier just by going like boom if we just want to wait everything around the same all you have to do is put them like approximately around the

Same and it will do all the work for you now just to give you like a better representation of what’s going on so I don’t want the stop model in as much because I’ve really weighted that myself anyway uh driving distance I do want to be important uh of the ones that I

Looked at it’s probably easier to do this if we go back and just go to edit MCM um just so I can get a better sense of what everything is now that we actually have everything in here so yeah driving distance p 50 on tour let’s go

25% 20% with that is pretty good Strokes game putting at Tory Pines itself let’s drop that down to like 15ish percent Strokes gain total last 24 rounds overall so the course history number here we’ll call that 15 or so per because we do have the putting in there

And that correlates a little bit with guys that have played well we’ll drop that down a little bit more so past 24 rounds course is over 7,400 yards we’ll split the difference so 18% 19% you can see this visually on the screen when when you’re watching this version so

We’re going to update the mixed condition model and then I need I need there we go and it updates itself so now you can see and I’m going to switch this back over to the Tory Pines model rank so now you can see them all built into one I love this view when

We take a look at it so we can sort by MCM and you can see how that correlates with the model that I had up before the one that we walk through and edited uh it’s the same one as before um and now you can see both of those views along

With the stats go with it when you build everything up so I have applied filters into this right now uh so I want to get rid of those so I’m glad it’s reminding me at the top and I can just go to clear all now instead of individually having

To go back and putting in specific courses specific lengths whatever it might be it’s just at last 24 rounds now that’s all that’s in here uh and the mixed condition model is all the conditions that I had before so mixed condition model versus what we’re seeing from the actual model rank Xander the

Gala H Klay Vegas sunj Oar minwoo morawa zalatoris Eric Cole all finish inside the top 20 in both of those now guys that finish very poorly in the model rank but the mixed conditions are really good Justin Thomas is one of those guys and clearly he decided to show up at the

American Express at least on Saturday he was inside the top three going into the final round playing in the final group gup gets a lot better when we put these conditions on dietre gets a little bit better he was 27th in the modeling anyway the short-term modeling

But he’s 11th in the mixed condition model ranking you see that Woodland and Harris English now the Woodland STS are from way back but Harris English plays a little bit better and that’s not including anything that he did um at Tory Pine like we went and did Tory

Pines South and Tory P Pines North that didn’t didn’t include the US Open a US Open in which he came in third place in 2021 putted very well chipped very well and the approach was really good for him so that’s interesting to see Harris I have no idea how he’s been playing I

Don’t even know if he played this week Harris English let’s see how he’s doing here he played Sony he was 10th he played the century he was 14th all right Harris English going on the short list because you can’t miss a putt apparently Harris English let’s put a star beside

His name didn’t even think about Harris English coming into the week uh baa does better in the MCM rank Vince wayy takes a huge leap as does Chuck Hoffman probably wouldn’t do that Sam Stevens goes from 73rd to 25th in terms of those rankings uh champ is top 30 in both

Weirdly enough Lowry gets worse which actually surprises me a lot because I figured harder courses would be kind of where he would fit in a little bit better McCumber goes way up it as a terrible course history here who else lantto goes way up how’s lonto been doing haven’t really been paying

Attention to him hasn’t really had a good finish since the Shriners before that it was Valero fermers he was t37 last year maybe he gets propped up yeah Farmers he’s you know come come inside the top 10 at least once made the cut for it at five times in his career

So not specifically looking at lonto but I do like Keegan Bradley worse in the short term in terms of the modeling better in the mixed condition modeling ranking you can see sh Kim better in the mixed condition as well Michael Kim top 25 in both good for Michael Kim again

Pester him to come on the show especially after coming off a good week at the American Express uh tweet him and tell him he needs to come on the show and break down these courses and give me some real insight oh Eric Barnes pops up

There as well okay Luke list is up there straa is up there wonder who sucks in these things so in the mixed condition because not everyone’s going to have you know course history so they’re going to be penalized a little bit for that not much uh in the overall ranking because

Their stats would be zero they wouldn’t be in the negative so it just gives them a neutral look at a lot of these things but you know Sheamus power he withdrew a week ago so watch out for him Blair a just a lot of the shorter hitters just

Don’t do well here so a so dry January Harrison Endicott looked like he was dead in the water then I think he shot minus 11 on Saturday at Palm Beach at PGA West Silverman Ry ry’s had a decent run at this course in the past the model

Likes him a little bit more remember this is the first time that everyone discovered that he wears two gloves when he plays then he folded on the weekend shank is someone who shot like minus 10 at the North Course or maybe it was the South course uh once in a blue moon a

Few years ago I think it was that same year that rye was really good that may have been the year that list ended up winning but he went on a run and just kind of faded on the weekend one thing of note guys that go into the weekend

With leads here they don’t tend to last uh you can make up significant amounts of Strokes on the weekend at this course but anyway that’s what I wanted to do going through showing off some of the new mixed conditioning modeling tools uh and different way ways that you can

Manipulate everything a lot easier going forward at Fantasy national.com SLO by the way to get yourself that 20% off and now for everyone’s favorite part of the show when I incorrectly guess the odds although listen I’m not the best at betting although I will claim I’m the

Best if Sam Burns ends up winning at PGA West you know the very best 100% winner rate in a onewe sample but it’d be nice having to win like a bunch of money on DraftKings almost 6K two weeks ago and then hitting an outright winner would be

Fantastic news back toback week a much better start to the season than I had any of the Past Four Seasons so probably tells you and burns is my one and done in the race for the Mayo cup so Sam Burns would be too good for me winning

That he probably has zero chance to win Justin Thomas will probably win that will like help no one either way guess the odds for Farmers Insurance open I have it separated into four tiers of players I have the big tier the big tier one of players I have Max H at the as

The favorite at 12 to won along as a co-favorite with Xander shafley both 12 to1 Patrick kley and ludvig oel both 14 to1 Colin morawa at 18 along with Justin Thomas now if Justin Thomas wins the American Express he’s probably 14 to1 I do think that H and Xander will stick as

Co-favorites of this tournament H coming off the win at this tournament a year ago and he just wins in California so let’s go maxom betting favorite maxom good look for him maybe it won’t turn out that way cuz people love kley and Xander at the top every single week and

That’s where they’re situated I do think that H and Xander will be the betting favorites because of the course history for Klay or that lack of course history or good results at Tory Pines at the Farmers Insurance open will hold him back versus Xander who’s been bad but is

A local guy always gets that narrative and has popped up a few more times over the past few years in this event sunjay would be the top of the next because of the good course history he’s 25 to1 Min woo Lee 28 to1 one Jason day very good

Course for the horse at Tory Pine South and the Farmers Insurance open 33 to1 zalot tus made the cut at the AMX now looks like he’s back it’s been a good run for him in this event 35 to1 ditto with Keegan Bradley ditto with Eric Cole ditto with sahi the gala another guy

Almost like good in California I have them all at 35 to1 that’s tier two tier three in terms of guessing the odds Justin Rose in feno ayama all at 40 to1 that’s where I have the chance to be very very wrong in this s like one of

Those guys could be like feno could be like 22 to1 who knows Tony’s always all over the map with this stuff Ryan Fox in his debut in America did not play in Dubai this week played two weeks ago he was one of the few guys in this field

Taking the week off this week besides him you have [ __ ] Nikolai hoard and Franchesco Molinari all play this week in Dubai which Rory ended up winning Moran ended up coming in second place so Fox does have the week of rest on those to get acclimated to the time zone and

He’s a huge bomber I have him at 45 to1 I have hoard at 50 to1 the same as Shane Lowry Seb straa burger and Les Burger look good making the cut in his first tournament in 20 months I have them all at 55 to1 Taylor Montgomery flea market

60 to1 Adrien Moran 75 to1 and Franchesco marar at 175 to1 those are my guesses for the odds all have the updated version of the guess the odds in the Mayo media newsletter subscribe to the Mayo media newsletter it is completely free to join it will be sent directly to you and have

All of this information and more including my f length picks bets and course preview the giant article will all be free in the Mayo media newsletter so please go sub to that check it out and go tell some friends about it because I need people to discover it and

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The Farmers Insurance open I shall see you next time experience experience