Texans-Ravens, Chiefs-Bills, Bucs-Lions | Bet the Edge (1/17/24) | NBC Sports

Jay (@croucherJD) and Drew (@whale_capper) reflect on Monday’s games in Super Wild Card Weekend, then continue their handicap of the postseason beginning with the Texans as two-score underdogs against the top-seeded Ravens before discussing market prices for Chiefs at Bills. They conclude with the Lions hosting the Buccaneers as near-touchdown favorites on Sunday in Detroit. #nbcsports #sportsbetting #nfl

(0:00) – Hello and welcome
(0:40) – Reflecting on Steelers at Bills and Eagles at Bucs in Super Wild Card Weekend
(8:00) – Texans at Ravens
(15:20) – Chiefs at Bills
(26:05) – Buccaneers at Lions

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Texans-Ravens, Chiefs-Bills, Bucs-Lions | Bet the Edge (1/17/24) | NBC Sports

All right welcome to bed the edge I’m Jay Crouch here as always with Drew dini different location today uh we’re going to run through Texans Ravens Chiefs bills bucks Lions uh now we know all of the matchups but first Drew how did you enjoy the Monday games uh Bill Steelers

And uh and Bucks Eagles uh the the early game was weird uh not just because it was a Monday and there was football on at 4 in the afternoon but uh the outcome and the way the game kind of unfolded was bizarre um the result was not good

For me I would have loved a back door there by the Steelers but um you know it uh it you can cut it two ways the margin of victory was 14 points and the Steelers basically gave the bills 14 points with the uh you know the George

Pickins fumble and the pick in the end zone so um you know maybe the game was closer than the final score said but at the same time every time it felt like the bills needed to do something um they did it and they made it it look easy so

I think ultimately clearly the right side won uh and uh if you bets them over once they changed the date of the game congratulations that was the one of the easier bets of the weekend um that said uh you know bills are a really interesting handicap against the Chiefs

This week um so many thoughts and I can’t wait to hear what you have to say about that as well uh the night cap for me with the Bucks could not have gotten any better um I had an under in that one that got home I had the Bucks money line

That got home in Exotics uh so that was huge a huge result and uh we get to um you know I I honestly put the Eagles out of their misery I think it’s better for everyone that we don’t have to uh kind of figure out what’s going on there

Anymore and they could use a break so uh yeah I’m kind of happy to to move on from uh from Philadelphia yeah I can’t remember a I mean I can’t remember an inseason collapse um of that ilk uh have to think back to like the New York Mets blowing

The NFC East like 2007 that kind of stuff to see that a team uh so completely collapsed I don’t understand still don’t understand why their defense fell off so much from last year when it was an elite unit I don’t know what happened to James Bradbury I just get

Guess he just got old really fast uh and they were like they really they turned into an extreme example of the Cowboys where if they’re not getting quick pressure then there’s just nothing there there’s absolutely nothing in the back seven uh and you could see it last night

Like the only times the defense worked was when they were sacking Baker Mayfield and if they didn’t sack him then uh it was just game over so bizar sequence of games for Philadelphia bizar season for Jaylen Herz it’s the 2022 hurt season where he was the MVP

Favorite before he got hurt really late in the year it looks so in congruous with what he did in 21 and 23 because this year he’s just looked like the guy that he was in 2021 he looked so indecisive the safety that he took was

About as bad a place as I can remember given that the game I mean it was still in the balance at that point it was 169 it’s a one- score game the buck are not this absolute force that you think is going to March down the field every

Single time though they were having success and if he just throws the ball away and they punt then maybe it’s still a game but to your point it really did feel like a team that was ready to be put out uh of its misery uh and uh and

We move on and it’s someone who someone who in The Comeback player with the year Market is heavily on dear Hamlin and Baker Mayfield could have used that performance Baker uh in week 17 or week 18 I don’t think he’s gonna win the award now but he could have if he served

That up against the panths yeah one final thought on the postmortem for the Eagles defense I do think the defense regression from last year was pretty predictable because the defense was inflated in a lot of people’s eyes because they played as schedule very very easy quarterbacks

Last year uh combined with the fact that they were in extremely positive game States like that team was up 20 points in the second half of almost every game they they were in last year uh particularly in the regular season and then of course got to play you know the

Niners with Brock py in the NFC championship game uh you know so like things really really broke favorably for the Eagles in terms of helping kind of you know just really inflate the perception of that defense last year and then in the off season they had to choose between bringing back the

Linebacking Corp bringing back to the secondary and they elected to bring back the secondary and those guys did not perform well namely Brad Barry and slay and you know without linebackers and without uh outstanding safety play the spine of the defense was just nothing to really write home about and that uh got

Became a problem the deeper they went in the season and the more people kind of figured out how you wanted to attack that unit uh and then all of a sudden if you’re not in a you know especially positive game State then uh you know the pass rush doesn’t really matter it only

Really mattered last night on third Downs when it was like third and long and an obvious passing down well those are you know that’s that’s when you know they got to thrive the entirety of last year so um you know I think it was it was it was relatively predictable um

Certainly Roseman needs to probably come under a little bit of scrutiny for uh you know how he’s populated the some of the defensive decisions they’ve made uh in the draft and if those guys don’t come good then uh you know then they’re going to be taken a major step backwards

But I don’t think Jaylen Herz deserves the criticism that he’s getting broadly and uh it’s mostly you know he was injured we knew he was hurt he was a one-dimensional player as far as you know where he was able to attack on the field compared to last year and uh I

Think uh it won’t be I won’t be surprised at least if we hear you know kind of Rumblings that oh yeah actually he was more hurt than we really realized and uh he’s gon to be you know having some offseason surgery to get right particularly with knee uh some some of

The knee pain that was clearly limiting him so um you know it was a tough game to go into without uh your number one wide receiving threat which is why it was still very very very tough to rationalize Why the Eagles were three-point favorites yesterday and I think ultimately not not being results

Biased it’s still uh kind of a mystery to me why the Bucks were um dogs at home in that one yeah I think ultimately a big part of that had to be just Baker Mayfield’s health and like he did he did not look resemble at all the guy who

Showed up in Carolina and was limping around just like could throw the ball 10 yards down field but from the first few plays you could tell like he just playing with a completely different just level of Health uh level of just zip the way he’s moving around level of

Decisiveness and yeah it’s definitely a fair comment about the Eagles defense it’s still like they were the fourth best defense in the NFL last year by EPA play this year they were what the 30th and Brad Bradbury was Brad was second Team all pro last year and this year

He’s played like close the worst quarterback in football uh and I mean it’s it’s kind of sad really because in interviews he comes off very well and he takes ownership but I mean it’s was just absolutely brutal uh the tackling like what is he tackling guys around their

Shoulders like it’s just made no sense whatsoever um so tough end for the Eagles uh but we’ll talk about the team that moved on from that game in a sec but let’s start with the AFC Texans at Ravens uh the line is r minus 9 ticking

Up towards 9 and a half some spots the total is 44 looks like there will be no rain at this point in Baltimore though there will be a chunk of wind uh is this should CJ stad ever be a 9po f uh ninepoint doctor uh not by my numbers I

Think uh what we’ve seen from him uh not just in he High leverage last two games but really over the balance of the Season as he’s grown into the role of the starter and Houston has been uh you know top 10 quarterback level clearly uh and if you have a quarterback that can

Perform at that level in a playoff environment even against a good defense I think you’re alive to score enough points to stay in contention here stay in reach uh I think uh Fair here should be Raven seven and a half so I’m happy to take nine nine and a half here and I

Think ultimately won’t be shocked if the Texans are uh you know you know in this game or even win this game um we shouldn’t be surprised by that I I think uh the playoffs field in general is pretty flat and while it is notable that the Ravens are effectively at full

Strength now um you know kind of very carefully watching for Mark Andrews news uh he was uh kind of identified as um available to come off of ir quietly last week uh and then uh would expect he’s going to practice this week if he goes that’s definitely a dimension in the

Ravens offense that’s worth paying attention to although in his absence it kind of looked better the passing offense at least had a little bit more little less predictability is that thing um it’s uh it did feel like Lamar kind of came into his own more in the final

Third of the season when Andrews wasn’t out there so uh that just you know that that doesn’t really mean much I don’t think I think it’s more just Lamar and the offense kind of growing into uh you know what was a new system that Todd monin brought to the table for them so

You know the Ravens offense is is definitely going to probably determine this game one way or the other when it’s all said and done the Texans defense is not very good we know this uh and in general I think the injuries that theyve had over the final quarter of the season

And the playoffs uh you know could matter quite a lot if they don’t if they’re not at full strength on the dline if they have guys unavailable in terms of pass rush win you know pass rush opportunities then uh the Ravens pass protection should be pretty good

Here uh and I think you could have Lamar in a situation where either they’re playing from ahead pretty comfortably or they in a comeback mode they’re able to get it done um in the back of my head there’s a birdie saying you know hey we need to see Lamar Jackson perform at a

You know at the same level we’ve seen in in the regular season in the postseason just as proof of concept that he can do it I believe he can um but I kind of do need to see it to really have any confidence that the Ravens are a team

That you want to be laying points with in the playoffs um notable in his three I mean you know I mean just frankly in the three games we’ve seen from Lamar Jackson in a playoff setting uh he hasn’t been great and I think uh you know the two games we’ve seen from CJ

Strout he’s been ultimately you know he’s been incredible if you want to include the the game against Georgia last year the three games we’ve seen from him he’s been you know just on another level so um it’s not going to blow me away if that is sort of the

Setting for this game and the Ravens have to you know either claw their way back into it to get the to get the win or you know just can’t find the right uh combination to to get it home because the Texans are playing with house money

Right now they’re a young team uh and even though you know there are still some questions about who you have you know in terms of weapons uh Nico Collins has emerged as a true blue wide receiver one uh and you know Will Will Anderson if he is right can you know definitely

Generate some pressure which could be a distinguishing Factor here so um ultimately I do think the Ravens will win and move on um but I like uh Texans plus the points and I think this game probably lands inside or around seven yep I am not convinced that the Ravens

Have the better quarterback uh in this game I not I’m not convinced there’s a massive Edge on that front and also I think that in the way that the Ravens close season you just throw out the Pittsburgh game in week 18 because that wasn’t a real game for them but just

With the way they close the season I think now if you ask the average NFL fan who the best team in the NFL is most people would say Baltimore because Baltimore happened to beat San Francisco in San Francisco now obviously the market will still tell you that San

Francisco is the best team but we’re like two real games remove from the from the Ravens closing six and a half Point dogs in San Francisco like this Ravens team and I get that they were incredibly impressive in that game though a large chunk of that was the fact that Brock P

Threw four interceptions three of them being tip balls and P just pie imploded to the point where he he just wasn’t going to win that game uh the way that he was playing and Beyond the interceptions and uh beating Miami even though Miami kind of revealed themselves

As frauds uh towards the end of the season and in their playoff game still very impressive to be able to beat them 50 619 but I mean this is still the same Ravens team that like really should have lost at home to the ramps in a game that

They needed they uh they allowed Deshawn Watson who had what a fractured shoulder and a high ankle sprain to uh complete every single pass uh in the second half at home and lose that game 3331 they weren’t super impressive against the charges in that Sunday night

Game like I think this is the best team in the AFC but I think the idea that they are a tier above by themselves a tier above the bills and the Chiefs I think that’s probably wrong I think they’re closer to just the best team in

A tier of those three uh I don’t think they’re better than the ners and they wouldn’t be favored in the Super Bowl if that is the matchup so I think this team is beatable now I’m not sure that Houston between the weaknesses that they have outside of stra with just how

Injured they are on defense with the offensive line not being great with stad coming up against and I know the Browns had an elite historic pass defense but that wasn’t that wasn’t the defense um they weren’t the same defense by the end of the year with all their injuries so

This will obviously be st’s toughest test on the road and there’s a reason that the Ravens are favored by more than a touchdown but certainly at nine inching towards nine and a half the Texans would be the side here for me do you think that’s fair to like question

That the Ravens are perhaps not actually um an all World Juggernaut I think it’s 100% Fair I mean I I thought what I was saying was a little bit less Fair which is that there’s speculation that Lamar Jackson’s going to revert back to you know the guy

He was three years ago in the playoffs yeah may he may he may have completely grown out of that so it’s you know it’s it’s it’s h it’s tough to say what you’re going to get there um but uh the idea that the Ravens have kind of risen

And risen and risen just on the basis of you know finishing the season strong uh and we haven’t seen them like we haven’t seen them you know play a stinker in a while and for that reason alone they’re inflated I think that is 100% fair and I

Think that’s giving you two free points in this one yep no I like it all right Texans it is uh Chiefs at bills uh this is the line that surprised me the most I don’t hon I don’t really understand this one so the bills are effectively thre

Point favorites in this one pretty much most places are like minus two and a halfus 120 on the bills the total is 46 uh this is the Sunday late game on CBS I’m surprised his line is so big with just the amount of injuries that Buffalo took um in that Monday game

Against Pittsburgh like here are some of the guys out like Thell Bernard got carded off uh he was the effectively the Matt Milano replacement they’re already without Terrell Dodson who at least by PFF is an absolute monster and one of the best linebackers uh in the sport this season dodson’s backup Bale

Inspector did his back and got injured against the Steelers so was the AJ Klein show who was not in the NFL a week ago he’s he may be the starting L he probably will be the starting linebacker against the Chiefs Christian Benford hurt his knee did not come back in the

Game teron Johnson who is an all pro slot Corner uh he got concussed I believe for the second time this season which puts him in serious doubt in a short turnarounds um we saw Douglas and Taylor up they didn’t play already looks like Douglas will come back back uh and Gabe

Davis wasn’t able to go like that is a ton of guys and they’re already missing Matt Milano and Trey wat uh do you think that that’s just the Tipping Point of not no return but to the point where the bills shouldn’t be you know effectively three three three point favorites

Against Patrick Mahomes yeah I mean I you cataloged that well um the market has kind of come off of three at a lot of important places it’s two and a half now um although juicy two and a half um one of the I guess the other kind of two

Wrinkles here um you know there’s a two-day rest Advantage for Kansas City they played Saturday bills played Monday um bills are at home and for whatever it’s worth uh the Chiefs performing well in Buffalo getting making that crowd a little tight taking a little bit of the

HomeField Advantage away I could see it um but the um uh we’re not that far removed from Buffalo going into Kansas City uh in the month of December and that Kansas City closed one and a half Point favorites so at that time you had kind of Market consensus that the bills

Were a better team um albeit a small margin better uh and now here they are at home and so I think three was a fair opener and I think there was I thought at least there was real realistic scope that people were going to be excited about the outcome against the Pittsburgh

Steelers excited about the you know the winning streak that they put together here and you might even get uh you know some sentiment they gave us a shot at three and a half on Kansas City because the Chiefs are the s that I really wanted in this contest um now that it’s

Kind of been bet down to two and a half I’m really staring hard at my numbers and I’m really refreshing I’m going to be refreshing aggressively the injury information for the Buffalo Bills defense all week because that is gonna ultimately determine this game make zero mistake about what was responsible for

The bills turnaround this season it was their defense uh defensive replacement level players specifically Dodson and Bernard fortifying the second layer there the second level and uh you know just becoming better linebackers and better fits for what McDermot wanted to do with the defense if those guys do not

Go the Chiefs are going to have Little Resistance moving the ball in this contest because if all you’ve got is a front four that can Rush passer and create pressure led by your interior guys who are kind of the most important of that unit and you’re up against a

Chiefs defense that has one of the better interior pass Protections in the NFL and a quarterback in Mahomes who will scramble on a moment’s notice in a playoff setting you are in deep trouble if your linebacker core cannot hang and that is kind of the key for this entire

Game I cannot believe we are saying it but a a game involving Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen in the divisional round of the playoffs depends on the health of t tyl b Dodson and Terell Bernard and that is obscene and wild and crazy but that it is it is the case

Linebackers people used to joke off ball linebackers don’t matter they matter so much in this game I I can’t really wrap my head around it I agree that Douglas will go but it’s not like there’s a wide receiver one for the Chiefs that you really want Douglas to kind of take off

The field I guess Rashid rice would be that guy he has emerged but uh you know it’s not like they target rice to the degree where that like really impacts the chief’s ability to move the ball I don’t think um and you do have a decent

Uh you know kind of way you kind of quality safeties at least to kind of uh help buckle up on on Travis Kelce so maybe this becomes a game where the Chiefs are most effective on the ground if the linebacking core is not good to

Go um but uh certainly the idea that the Chiefs can um you know can can get a win in a um you know in a high-profile contest like this uh is wide open with the injuries that the bill sustained yesterday uh the you know we’re zeroing almost entirely on you know the the

Bills defense because again that’s what really got them to this point in the season it wasn’t changing over from um Ken dorsy to Joe Brady in my opinion it wasn’t Josh Allen cutting down on turnovers he’s still the same guy um but uh certainly the uh the Chiefs defense

Is going to be a very tough test for this unit you saw I think in the contest in December in Kansas City the rushing attack for the bills was awesomely effective in the first half of that game and for weird reasons they went away

From it uh and it all kind of fell apart for them uh and uh they barely hung on thanks to the the off you know the offsides call on you know cadarius Tony to get that one home but um you know so I think there’s there’s you know there’s

Scope for some success here for the uh the bills on the ground but uh you know the key I would I would uh kind of look to here is if both of these teams are largely leaning into the ground game and that’s where they’re going to find the

Most success it’s 46 a fair total or is 46 too high and for me if I only can take one bet into this game knowing what we know now and even saying that I’m concerned about one of these defenses in their health I still think that this

Total is too high because this game could just be shortened on the basis of uh both of these teams largely being successful in the rushing attack uh and just in general the clock tick tick tick tick ticking yep no I think that’s fair and I think it’s interesting about uh Bernard

And Dodson the idea of off ball linebackers who to your point have been so marginalized and I mean the Money Ball approach which how Roseman kind of embodies is to just you know disregard the value of well to to disregard prioritizing off ball linebackers and running backs basically um off ball

Linebackers are the defense’s equivalent of the running back in terms of how they’re perceived and uh and you saw that so glaringly kind of um targeted by particularly San Francisco and that Philly game where it’s like a well yeah we’re just going to destroy your linebackers every day to the point where

Where I mean one of the guys who was filling in for Philly got cut like two days later after that San Francisco game and I think it’s going to be a problem against a Chiefs offense that to me against Miami looked as fixed as it’s been all year like they should have

Scored 40 in that game but they kept on shooting themselves in the foot and some high leverage plays went against them uh and I understand that Miami was really banged up but they still had some guys on the defense and uh yeah I think that’s going to be a concern for buffalo

I think it’s also a concern that when these two teams played and I know the bills they closed only one and a half Point dogs but like they were coming off the buy chiefs were coming off a row football game against the Packers so I think that equalized things a bit and

Josh Allen was negative EPA per play in that game now Patrick Mahomes is also negative EPA play in that game but if the bills are missing half their defense then you would think that there is probably more scope for Mahomes to improve upon that I worry is someone who

Needs uh the bills in this game that we’re going to see like a lot of James Cook and a lot of running the ball against Kansas City and a lot of runs on second and nine uh and it’s going to be infuriating uh and it’s going to be too

Late until they finally take the chains off and just let Josh go to work I think that the Miami game was also another data point to the idea that momes just has another gear in the playoffs which is you know usually saying that is is a

Kind of uh easy pundit talking point but with Mahomes I think there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that is a real statistical thing that in games where he’s an underdog or the spread is under three he just goes to another level uh whether that’s uh a focus thing whether

It’s a play calling thing or just dialing up more pass plays and putting more on M homes’s plate whether it’s more willingness to sacrifice his body on these scrambles now a lot of the same stuff applies to Allan I just think my homes is better than

Uh and I think that his gear is probably higher and if the bills are seriously banged up on defense uh and the Chiefs then have the better defense and I think the bills have the slightly better offense but uh I don’t trust the play calling as much on Buffalo’s side so I

Agree with you on the under uh and I lean Chiefs right now uh at the spread so uh we’re ready for a six year in a row AFC Championship game in Kansas city is that where we’re at that would be that would be something yeah the uh the incumbent um heog

Graphic figure against uh against the next Jesus and CJ stra um could be could be coming um but no I’m very concerned about my bills who is feeling really good about going to the Steelers game just these injuries like you just sometimes you just reach the point of no

Return and I just worry that we’re going to be seeing uh AJ Klein trying to cover streaking Rashi rice on a slant route that goes 7 yards of the house um a little bit of a concern and I know Klein was fine against the Steelers but it’s

Like fine against Mason Rudolph is not going to necessarily be fighting against Patrick Mahomes I don’t think that that guy has any prayer in coverage um so that’s gonna be a problem all right uh before we get into the last game the lions are looking to continue

Their story book season Drew and they can advance to the NFC championship game with a win over Baker Mayfield and the bock coverage of the divisional round matchup in Detroit begins at 2m Eastern on NBC and peacock all right the Lions the opener was six it’s already ticked

Up to Lions minus 6 and a half the total is a massive 48 and a half two former number one picks not playing for the teams that drafted them storylines Galore on paper like bucks Lions if you were told this is going to be the divisional round matchup back in week

Eight you would have been NBC probably would have been pretty upset but the way that’s broken I think this is a pretty good match up up uh a total of 48 and a half which implies that this is going to be something resembling a shootout lots

Of story lines B Mayfield in the NFC title game uh which is incredible when you think about where he was at uh in preseason where he was at in like week nine as well this is unfathomable but I think the Bucks they’ve showed a gear against the Eagles and really in the

Last six weeks of the season if you throw out the Carolina game because Baker was hobbled but suggests that they’re going to be able to score against the Detroit defense that look and I don’t think that Baker Mayfield is actually you know a a superstar quarterback who’s going to be able to

Light up the ners and the Ravens but I think he can probably light up Detroit uh do you think six and a half points is too many here no I think it’s right I think it should be yeah and like uh the baker Mayfield part of it is fascinating

Because you’re right like in the preseason they were threatening to take away his job and give it to Kyle tras uh and uh I think last night on the broadcast I kind of did like a triple take when they put up uh the fact that um Todd Bulls is the eighth head coach

That he has played for how is that possible uh this is number eight uh for him but I will say that just in general what they’re getting out of uh you know the skill position players right now like it’s not going to be enough I don’t

Think um and uh yes I will acknowledge that Rashad white has been a huge breath of fresh air for a running attack that could do nothing last year uh and yes Evans and Chris Godwin are you know guys that have a gear that makes it tough on

Any defense and they’re going up against the soft lines core like you were in a pretty friendly environment last night guys and you were playing against a team that couldn’t tackle and I lost count of drops at like seven yeah in that game like there were so many lost

Opportunities where the ball hit the ground uh against a uh you know and you’re at home in a you know Prime Time comfortable environment so it was a little shocking to see uh and I think ultimately uh if those guys aren’t sharper against the the Detroit Lions

Then number one this total is not getting there and number two I don’t think they’re covering um ultimately the fact that the Bucks got to play from a positive game State last night was huge because you know in general their their pass protection is is good um but up

Against uh you know kind of really truly elite players they have broken down at times this season they haven’t faced many tough pass Pro uh pass brushes uh this season and I do like what you’re seeing right now out of the allons defense in terms of pass rush so um just

In general I think this is uh you know if you miss the five and a half on the open if you miss the six on the open uh six and a half I think is still a tiny Edge to bet uh the line o and um you

Know the defense for the Buccaneers is pretty much at full strength like this is the unit that they wanted to go to war with uh this is the unit that Todd bus you know and he’s calling the defense that he wants to call like it’s a blitz heavy pack you know Blitz heavy

Packages and just in general uh you know kind of leaves his cornerbacks on islands and that can get you into trouble Devonte Smith was having whatever he wanted last night and while he is yes an outstanding receiver uh he’s still you know is he won number one

Was in the wide receiver one role and was getting whatever he wanted uh and number two uh you know I think with a little bit more creative scheming um like you know going from Brian Johnson to a Ben Johnson scheme uh I think you could be in a little bit of trouble uh

With your quarterbacks on Islands if your uh Blitz heavy you know defense isn’t getting home and I really just don’t see it getting home against uh the Lions pass Pro as currently constituted so I think Jared Goff mon Ross St Brown Reynolds Williams leaport um these guys

Should have a lot of Success Through the air in this contest uh jir Gibbs is coming into his own he looks fresh he looks very very dangerous uh the fact that you have a double-edged sword Balan pass and run right now for the Lions I think is uh is very very effective and

Uh ultimately this has the whips of the lions like you know kind of popping the bubble on the bucks bucks go home as you know double digit losers uh and lions move into an NFC Championship game where they could potentially be wildly overrated yes I think that’s fair it’s

Hard to remember because back when these two teams played back in week six I don’t think anyone thought that this was going to be you know a divisional round preview but they did play back in week six and the Lions absolutely destroyed Tampa Bay uh and I think it’s

Instructive the manner in which they did it so they won by 14 they won 20 to6 in Tampa uh and the way that they did it was so they couldn’t run the ball at all and now there was no jir Gibbs in that game but uh they ran the Lions ran for

1.8 yards per carry and it didn’t matter because Jared gof was 344 for 353 yards and two touchdowns uh 74.3 qbr which I think would have been the best in the NFL across a full season so they lit them up through the air and then on the other side Mayfield couldn’t do anything

He was 19 for 37 threw a pick no touchdowns uh they couldn’t get anything going which is I think it doesn’t vote particularly well now they were a different and worst team at that point the Bucks uh and the lions are probably of a somewhat similar quality to how

They were then when they were five and one so I think this game is going be closer than that but I think the way to attack this game is that I don’t think the lions are going to have a ton of success running the ball I think this

Bucks rushing defense as it has been for years uh is a really strong unit uh and the Lions weren’t able to have any success the first time around so I think this is going to be a golf game to your point and he is opened at 264 and a half

Passing yard me that’s way too low and I would look at stuff like if you like the lions in this game like you can back um GF 325 plus Lions alt spread minus 9 a half it’s like 11 to1 uh and that happened in the first

Game when they played so I think there is scope for um gof going heavily over uh and the Lions kind of lighting them up uh and Baker Mayfield having to play from behind and Baker Mayfield dropping back with Aiden Hutchinson pinning his ears back um knowing that it’s going to

Be it’s going to skew pass I think is a problem for Tampa Bay now the one concern is that get nervous when a team is this heavily favored and it’s on the shoulders of Jared Goff uh who I think is GNA have to play well in this game

You would much rather I think is if you’re a lions fan you probably prefer a defense that’s profile skews the other way where it’s a softer run defense and the the Lions can just run all over you because they that just kind of produces a more stable less variable outcome in

Terms of how their offense is going to operate uh and if gof G just has these bad games like he can just have games like he did against uh against the Bears late in the season or even at home in a dome against the Packers defense which

Isn’t good at all where he just completely submarines you now I think it’s it’s a good sign that he was able to play really well against the Rams uh and by my numbers if there’s one bet to make in the Super Bowl market right now it’s actually Detroit plus 900 which I

Don’t feel great about I just think that the fact that one they’re six and a half Point favorites in this game two very big thing for Jared Goff is that the Super Bowl is in a dome that’s massive for him given that how poorly he plays Outdoors relative um

To when the conditions aren’t a factor so I’m with you I think that the lions are the side just it makes me nervous when Goff is going to be the key to everything here’s one thing to kind of give you a little bit of a uh I guess May maybe a little

Little um confidence in golf right when you think of Blitz heavy defensive schemes right yeah you know Tampa Bay should come to mind uh you know who else should come to mind is the Minnesota Vikings and gof got to play the Vikings twice in like the last four weeks and so

This is not going to be something new uh and in general I think the Buccaneers are not as effective blitzing as the Vikings uh and the Viking you know the the Lions pass Pro held up perfectly well in those two games and I thought Goff did perfectly fine so uh ultimately

Um this game will come down to the uh the scheme that Ben Johnson has and you know the route running and the uh you know just the playmaking of the Lions wide receivers and if you’re telling me I got to go to war with uh you know you

Know St Brown uh Raymond and Williams and mport uh against this unit of uh of pass Defenders um I’m looking at Lions old spreads honestly yep no I don’t I don’t mind that and I think that um the Bucks defense is going to be over valued by people after what they did against

Philadelphia I think that was such a just a a strange fluky context where they had 10 unblocked pressures in that game which is the most any team has had in a game all season Herz faced quick pressure the most he has is I believe in his entire career and they were just

Blitzing time and time again Eagles go empty bug splits and they just had no answer it’s like I’m not sure if that was it mean it’s probably it has to be a combination a scheme thing and then also just no one outside of Devonte Smith could get open quickly um as a blitz

Beater and just Herz I think Herz is so in his own head at this point where there were plays where like he’s looking at Devonte Smith Devonte Smith is open he just doesn’t throw the ball like it just seems like he’s just kind of there’s just something off in the wiring

Uh and I think that between um benj Johnson scheme between the ability of guys like mon R st Brown and James Williams and S Le Porter their ability to get open quickly uh I think the Bucks are going to be in trouble uh if you

Know to your point I think could look a lot like the Vikings game games and by the way yes Vikings and tamper are both Blitz heavy teams Vikings are also just the better defense yes I agree so I think it’s going to be a problem and I think that

The way that this goes south for Detroit is if gof just a golf implosion game uh and anything outside of that and they should be pretty comfortable in this one okay we are done don’t forget to check out nbcsports.com for more information to help you with your wages

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