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Live from the South Point Studio she’s Alex white I’m Matt nett Ryan McCormack on the other side of the glass this is sports by the book welcome in to our Wednesday Edition plenty to cover today we’re going to take a look ahead at this weekend in the divisional round of the
NFL playoffs and as always we’ve got some hockey and basketball playoff for regular season talk for you as well as our favorite at the end some Hoops picks and previews welcome in be sure to comment be sure to subscribe we’re getting up over a th subscribers we’re
Trying to get the drive for two going and uh your live comments we’ll read them Ryan is keeping an eye on those and uh is going to let us know because we really want your input this weekend’s slate of games in the NFL Alex really fun it was a super duper Wild Card
Weekend I guess we can call it that now and it sets up a really really interesting slate of divisional games and I I think we expected this and I think that it is playing out the way that we had thought in terms of just the interest in the KC Buffalo game that’s
Going to round out this weekend like I said I think we all knew that it was that was going to be the game of the weekend but we’ll get to the numbers later they are taking a ton of action behind us at the counter at the South
Point on that game alone four really good games and the lines don’t NE necessarily say that some bigger spreads than others but they are going to be good games I’m excited about these four and the eight teams that we have left in the divisional round we’re going to
Break it down we’ve got some things to talk about we got to talk about team totals that will be out here soon at South Point and then of course we need to look at first halves a lot of different things to bet in these games
It doesn’t have to just be side or the total and that’s the the really cool nature of the NFL as a whole but especially when it gets to playoff times is just the the menu and the amount of things that you can bet on and uh we’re
Starting to see it more and more as betting gets legalized in more and more States just the markets and the total value that that comes in on these games not like you said not just on the the side in the total it’s really remarkable and it’s something that you know a lot
Of people are trying to take advantage of and we’ll we’ll give you a a little bit of hints we got we we got some stuff coming up on that we’ll do the best that we can we do a lot of homework so we want to lead people in the right
Direction as much as we can but you’re right it’s insane I mean the player props you know what I miss already too on Sundays the team to score first that they have here at South Point can’t wait for next year like we always looked forward to those or which team will
Score the most points and they have those again for this weekend even out of the four games so I’m excited Ryan what are you most excited for this weekend um I mean personally definitely to watch the Packers lose but that’s un opposite note I’m just it’s it’s going to be a
Great divisional round and uh going to get a lot better football games than we did last week yeah three of the four games this weekend are six and a half points or more on the spread but I don’t know if it’s quite as black and white as
Binary as a lot of folks are thinking in terms of the action this weekend so we’ll definitely take a look at that but Ryan had a great idea of how we can kind of compartmentalize these these teams and rank them Stephen A Smith style First Take style uh so let’s let’s get
Into it our our power rankings and I I’ll lead it off we we individually ranked our top eight teams in order that are remaining in the NFL playoffs and we’re blind Ryan is the only one that’s seen all three of the the orders including his and before we get into it
Were there any real big surprises or was it kind of what you had expected in terms of the order um no I mean we’re all pretty similar there’s a couple switched across the cross the numbers but they’re all they make sense kind of no big surprises yeah there there are
Kind of teers it’s kind of the top three top four and then kind of everybody else right I’ll be really interested to see mainly at the top and the bottom because there’s you know you can make an argument for anybody you know three through six three through seven but I
Think one and two and seven and eight are going to be similar if not the same for for just about all of us so Ryan and I are basically just opinions and what we think yours are based on your power ratings The Hard numbers so it was it
Was your idea and I think it’s a good one to have you go last almost as a barometer just to see how how off Ryan and I actually are well I mean yeah I have been tracking these and keeping up with them throughout the year but we’ll
See how good I did as well especially after this weekend I’d be interested to see what chy Andrews or some of the guys behind the books are as well but we they have sports by the book on Friday football Friday so I’m sure he’ll be looking at our three and then give his
Opinion on Friday so yeah we’ll see uh Jeff parl returns to the desk tomorrow maybe we could do it with him we’ll see what what what his thoughts are maybe just at least his thoughts on our on r eight CU believe it or not we do appreciate Jeff’s opinion and feedback
So I I’ll lead it off as as the new guy on the show I’ll lead it off and we’re going to go from bottom to top right eight to first um one of the ones that I think we all going to be pretty much the same i’ I’ve got Tampa Bay eight Tampa
Bay is my eight uh kind of backing in I I will say that they have the the worst of the quarterbacks that are left I mean I I think it’s between probably him or Jared gof I I am really really high on CJ strad so I I would say that that the
Bucks have the the worst of the quarterbacks and one thing that I did when making the this list in this order was take a look at the record of these teams against the other teams in the playoffs in general and the Buccaneers by far the worst they were one and five
Against playoff teams their only win against a playoff team was in week 15 or yeah week 15 against the Green Bay Packers so that was a good week for Ryan it was a 34 to2 win in Lambo for the bucks that was their their best win of
The year and it was a you know team that kind of got hot at the right time uh the one number for me too that that’s pretty damning in terms of the playoff teams remaining Tampa Bay by far the worst offensively in terms of points per game
They come in 19th in points per game averaging just over 21 a game they’ve averaged just 18 points over their last three games so offensively they they come in kind of cold even with a win against the Eagles but you want to talk about cold Philadelphia is is Antarctica
Right now in in terms of teams I got the Buccaneers eight number seven I’ve got Houston and uh it was kind of back and forth for me five six and seven for me were really really close and I didn’t want to do any ties mostly so that we could have this beautiful looking
Graphic that Ry through together and have it actually mean something so I’ve got Houston 7eventh uh they like I said I’m big on CJ Stout I would like to see them show me a little bit more they were two and two against playoff teams this year so you really can’t take too much
Stock into that and then right above them I’ve got the Packers at number six they were three and four against playoff teams and uh I think that where we between the three of us rank Green Bay is going to just depend on how highly you value that win against Dallas last
Weekend and for me it was a lot more about what Dallas didn’t or wasn’t able to do in a situation where they normally were so excellent and completely flipped the script on its head so I’ve got Green Bay the first ever seven seed to win in the new playoff format they they they
Got to show me something if if they were to win this week again especially against San Francisco they would have to be elevated in everyone’s Power Rankings oh my gosh rankings and ratings it’s a four yeah exactly yeah out of four they would be at least three in my book if
They win out of the four that are left so 876 Packers Texans or rather Buccaneers Texans Packers number five I’ve got the Lions and it’s mostly because of the Log Jam ahead of them in terms of the the top four spots I mean you you can’t put Kansas City in the
Bottom half it just with their playoff success as of late and what they’ve done against the the top opponents in the league I’ve got the Lions fifth again more so just because I don’t want to put Kansas City or Buffalo below the Lions the Lions are three and three against
Playoff teams they are up against the Bucks this weekend they defeated the Bucks in Tampa in week six all the way back then in uh September 20 to6 Final in Florida and another big reason why I put the Lions fifth not fourth or third where a lot of folks have had them last
Week in a game that they won against the Rams they were out gained 425 to 334 in terms of overall offense the Rams averaged 7.7 yards a play to Detroit 6.1 so I think that in a pretty even matchup they were outplayed but we’re able to do
Just enough and of course the the defense much maligned throughout the year uh they they are going to struggle to to stop most of these teams if not all of them remaining in the playoffs outside of Tampa because they’ve got the worst offense of the of the eight that
Are left so that’s my bottom four and then I kind of tease it a little bit I got Kansas City at 4 for two reasons number one because as you’ll see in a moment I’ve got the bills at three and the bills took care of Kansas City in
The regular season this year they’re looking to get the monkey off their back but Kansas City against playoff teams this year one and four the worst record outside of Tampa Bay of any of the eight remaining playoff teams against other Playoff teams so uh they’re going to be
On the road this week I factor that into the handicap as well for this so I’ve got the Chiefs four and as I mentioned I’ve got the bills three they’ve got the best winning percentage against other Playoff teams out of the eight teams remaining the bills five and one against
The remaining playoff teams that’s a big part of the handicap also they beat the Chiefs earlier this year and they’ve got the home game against Kansas City which is going to make a huge difference this weekend so now we’ll get to my top two and I I might ruffle a feather or two
Both in front of and behind the glass I’ve got San Francisco at number two and part of that is because of the matchup earlier this year when they took on Baltimore and Baltimore uh defeated uh San Francisco earlier in the year and it’s convincingly convincingly yeah they
They dominated him and you got to give the 49ers credit second in total offense third in Total Defense but the 49ers averaging just 22 points per game over their last three and that’s way below their season total of just under 29 so they have you know you can’t can’t count
Week 18 they were resting everybody but I I I think that with the Ravens at number one you get uh a a one-on-one matchup this year that went the way of the Ravens you’ve got both teams well rested but for Baltimore the the big ones for me League MVP Lamar Jackson
Mark Andrews and Z flowers his top two weapons when they’re healthy throughout the year likely going to play in full this weekend and I give them the coaching Advantage I I I will take take John Harbaugh over Kyle Shanahan the the margin’s not huge but in terms of what
We’ve seen and what he’s done on paper uh I think Baltimore at number one again more so just because of that one-on-one matchup earlier in the year that was a big one for me although the the Futures prices suggest that the 49ers would be a slight favorite if they were to play the
Super Bowl this weekend against Baltimore so that’s my list Baltimore at the top averaging the third best offense and the number one defense allowing just under 17 points a game Baltimore San Fran Buffalo KC Lions Packers Texans bucks I like it I like that you switch
Those and you do have the Ravens on the top because I think most people know that majority of people have the ners as their number one so I don’t mind it at all I think those two are very close and if if if Baltimore beats Houston by a
Field goal if if that’s a a one two three-point game and the 49ers take care of business like a lot of folks are expecting them and win by two touchdowns against Green Bay very very likely that I would flip them uh because that’s what it would need to take for me for San
Francisco to to Le frog Baltimore but so we’ll go we’ll go Ryan’s next and I’m I’m interested to see yours again yours and mine are more so based on our opinions and what you know numbers we were able to dig up Alex is I I like having it last because it’s a good
Barometer hers are based on the hard cold numbers that she’s been tracking all year so what do you got Ryan yeah so like Matt said these for me these are all opinion based but at number eight I’ll have the uh the Tampa Bay Bucks like said they’re they do have the worst
Quarterback of the remaining quarterbacks Alex may have something to say there but I mean they won the worst division in football they barely beat the Carolina Panthers in week 18 when they had something to play for in winning the division they couldn’t even score a touchdown they
Scored nine total points um and they handled the Eagles last week and the Eagles we’ve seen them absolutely collapse from 10 And1 to 11- six so they they to me they are the worst team remaining in these playoffs and then at number seven I kind of had some a little
Back and forth between the six and seven just because I do think they’re pretty similar but I have the Green Bay Packers um they started the year really really rough they went they were three and six and then they’ve kind of picked it up towards the back half competing
For the PO postseason they’re playing their best football right now um but their weakest unit is their defense and they gave up 30 points to the Carolina Panthers in week 16 do you guys know the last time the Carolina Carolina Panthers scored a point it’s been over two games
Right at least it was week 16 against the Green Bay Packers they were shut out they were shut out against Jacksonville and shut out against Tampa so if Carolina can put up their highest scoring game all season against the Green Bay Packers I would think that
This the Niners will be able to do pretty well um and so that’s why I have them at seven and then number six I’ll have the Houston Texans um mainly just because you can’t put them any higher than anybody else in the AFC um they are playing with house money nobody thought
They’d be here at this point um they had every right to have the number one overall pick last year if it wasn’t for Lovey Smith throwing that Hail Mary against the Colts um nice little Parting Gift yeah yeah especially for Chicago yeah um but they uh they have a better
Defense than Green Bay they their offense is still right there with Green Bays but they’re they’re my worst remaining team in the AFC has in the standings as well um and so at number five I will have the Detroit Lions um like Matt said it’s hard to put them any
Higher just because of the remaining four teams that are there and if they were to play on a any field really um it it’d be hard to have Detroit favored against the the remaining top four but they uh they’re Fearless they have the best passing offense in the regular
Season that’s left in this postseason they were only behind uh Miami in passing offense so Jared gof is is able to slam because they have weapons to go to um and then uh yeah so so when they gets gets to play in these other four teams they wouldn’t really they’d be
Paying playing catchup um but then at number four I have Buffalo I have the bills at number four because when it gets to postseason football you have to be able to show that you can beat the Juggernaut in the past four years the Chiefs have been the
Juggernaut and like Matt said they did win in Kansas City earlier this year they won 20 to 17 but as everyone should remember that was the catarius Tony cadarius Tony offsides play in which Travis Kelsey lateral to him and the Chiefs took the lead in the final minute
And that’s kind of why I in this moment have the Chiefs at three because I think when it comes to those two teams playing on a any football field I think the Chiefs have the better coaching staff they have the more experience they have what it takes to come up with things
That aren’t going to be for scen and so that’s why I have Buffalo at four and Kansas City at three and then number two I have the San Francisco 49ers because like Matt said earlier this year that matchup does come into play for me because the old adage is that defense
Wins championships the Baltimore Ravens were tied with the New York Giants for regular season uh turnover differential at 12 they led the league in sacks they their defense since getting rqu Smith from the Bears has been the best defense in the league and they they just have
Playmakers all over the field on offense and defense they have a former MVP and Lamar Jackson they’re getting Mark Andrews back which we kind of talked about it earlier but rust versus rest could be a little bit of a thing with him um because their offense has looked
Good with Isaiah likeley as their number one tight end very much um but they’re the the Ravens are my number one team because they they dominated that earlier matchup and they are my favorite to win the Super Bowl this I I’ll tell you what when I did my rankings I didn’t put the
Ravens first to be contrarian but I thought that I would be the only one so that’s that that’s good to hear and uh I know that Alex’s numbers are really big on the 49ers and what they do on on both sides of the ball so it would not
Surprise me whatsoever if you were the only outlier Alex on that but I’d be very interested to take a look before we get to Alex’s a reminder definitely let us know in the comments your top eight or if there’s anyone that you think Ryan
And I have too low or too high I I see John Marshall keeping an eye sayon get no respect a lot of the the the research that that that at least Ryan and I did your are based off your full season numbers but there’s research that goes
In is based on what they’ve done volume stats Houston 11th in total offense 10th in Total Defense basically every other team has a top nine unit in either one of those and I’m I’m as big a CJ Stroud fan as as you’ll find I think that the
Kid is amazing he is a 22-year-old rookie so while you know it may not seem like we’re giving Houston a ton of respect you got to keep it in the context of some of these other quarterbacks that are in the playoffs the one thing that I I find interesting
And it’s it kind of what you would expect but it’s not always the case seven of the top eight teams have a first round quarterback wow Brock p is the only outlier in fact all of them except for let me see Lamar Jackson Pat momes and Brock pie were
Drafted in the top 10 those stud quarterbacks have led their teams all quarterbacks except for those right yeah all all except for those three have been in the the top 10 top seven even Josh Allen I think the lowest of those at at seventh but yeah that match up between
The Bucks and the Lions that’s taking really no action behind us and we’ll get to that in a minute that’s the only game that features any top number one drafted player on the board in in golf and Baker Mayfield all right so let’s get to it
Alex yours and again yours are based on your personal power ratings so there’s really no emotion it’s strictly numbers right so robotic yeah I’m not going to give out too much like you guys did you did a great job explaining why they were there but I’m just going to kind of go
Quickly through them so number eight Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I will say this though they got to this point they took advantage of a very weak division they won their division and they took advantage of the spot going against the Eagles with where they were um so they
Fall here in this spot based off of numbers with how the market perceived them last week they were a two and a half Point dog at home so I kind of have to judge there where the book has them and the market so next up very close
Though I could have had these almost switch uh number seven Green Bay Packers only a half a point higher than Tampa Bay for me in this one and then only a half a point higher than them is the Houston Texans at number six now we make
A little bit of a jump here to the Detroit Lions who are number five for me and then there’s still a little bit of a jump here and that is number four the cansas City Chiefs what’s interesting is last week going into those matchups the Chiefs and lions were the same for me
They were both rated the exact same because of what Kansas City was able to do against Miami I know the weather conditions and everything but especially their defense held them to a touchdown and then the Lions did not cover their number they were a three three and a
Half Point favorite over the Rams they barely won that one by a point so I had to leave them where they were and adjusted Kansas City up a little bit they’re just a half a point behind the Buffalo Bills though they snuck up on them Kansas the city did so now Buffalo
Bills come in at number three I did not move them from last week either um especially with Pittsburgh trying to make a comeback in that game and then these ones are pretty close but I do have the San Francisco 49ers a point and a half higher so number two is Baltimore
Ravens and number one is the San Francisco 49ers I completely understand if I was making my rankings based off of the season and everything you guys did I think those those were fantastic and the Ravens beat the ners in the first one but based off where the market has these
Two and how the 49ers have beaten other teams where the Ravens really haven’t done that all that much so the Niners have taken advantage kind of like we’ve looked at with the Cowboys at home so you can only take so much from that but they’ve done it on the road and at home
All year long the San Francisco 49ers so they are at number one for me and I always have such respect for you know people like you handicappers that are able to remove story lines remove the heart it’s all up here and it’s all spreadsheets and there is definitely
Something to be said in this you know new age of sports betting where anyone with a cell phone and a a driver’s license can can get down any action that they want on their phone from anywhere in the State uh but to be able to kind of hold true to those old school
Mentalities and and strategies there’s definitely something to be said when it comes to setting your own line and trusting your own line against the books because that’s the big one too is a lot of folks they’ll have their own numbers and then they’ll see what the book has
And they’re way off and they go oh they have to know more than I do I’m going to abandon everything I’ve been doing for the last 15 weeks right and that’s what is kind of intimidating at some points right but I mean you’ll have those wins where you take the Bucks money line
Because you made them a slight favorite so and then of course you’ll have the where the Packers upset the Cowboys and your numbers are off and then you just adjust and do it again that’s what it’s all about appreciate that Matt yeah well no it’s always interesting to me and I I
Was interested to see how our three power rankings would compare and contrast pretty similar in a lot of ways and I kind of alluded to it at the beginning but there there were tears you know one through three were pretty similar 6 through eight were pretty
Similar and then you can kind of move stuff around from there so I I thought that was kind of an interesting way to you know power I think one and two right between those two the one seeds they both just got a week off for a good
Reason and then I think the next kind of three between Kansas City Buffalo and the lions and then the last three can kind of shift around a little but yeah to your point tiers for sure kind do them in any order as long as they’re still in those same tiers and not get
Too many weird looks yeah well so yeah that was interesting in terms of comparing contrasting I thought it was a good way to kind of set up these games in a little bit of context and we’ll we’ll roll through these uh divisional round matchups starting on Saturday at
Noon the Texans what do you know playing another early slot game they played more early Time games than any other team in the NFL and that’s a strategy or rather a a time slot that’s going to continue to follow them this week that’s number 301 302 on the rotation Texans at Ravens
1:30 uh here on the Pacific time zone on ESPN this Saturday again the Ravens defeating the Texans 25 to9 however that was back in week one I don’t know how much stock do you take in a week one victory in this kind of a matchup I
Don’t think you can take much at all different teams right completely different teams especially the Texans because they have come so far and CJ Strat has learned so much in his first year in the NFL this one open Baltimore minus n and a half right behind us at
The South Point it’s down to nine with a total at 44 this total opened at 462 as well and at least behind us is down 2 and 1/2 points anything that you think led into that or is that just a public sentiment I think the more you look at
It the more you realize that they are both really good defensively right and I think everyone knows that about Baltimore but not a lot of people know that about Houston and they actually gave up the fewest rushing touchdowns this year of any team and uh you were talking about him defensively for
Something else earlier today yeah so I mean demo Ryans was hired from being the San Francisco defensive coordinator so I mean they they have a defensive head coach and their their team is built for their defense and CJ Stout is just able to sling it and so I mean I’ve already
Taken the the Texans plus the seven in the first half I don’t know if I like them in the game um just because like we have said and like I had on my list the Ravens are the number one team to me but and the other interesting thing in terms
Of contextualizing these games are taking a look at the team totals and this was something that was Alex’s idea and I’m really interested to kind of see where these shake out uh for this one Houston’s team total at 185 it’s Juiced way to the over so the a lot of the big
Money bets that may come in might swing that thing pretty quickly Baltimore’s at 27 a half and I don’t know if that’s high enough Baltimore comes in as the third highest scoring team in the NFL this year by points per game they averag just over 28 per game although their
Last three games including week 18 where they rested everybody they’re averaging 33 points per game I think this one’s going to be a shootout see that’s really impressive and I looked at the numbers of them at home and their medium median at home is 34 points so you’re right I
Think that 27 and a half is worth taking a look at that over and just to compare Houston averaging uh just over 23 points per game which is 11th in the NFL but again hot as of late they needed to be at the end of the regular season they’re
Averaging over 31 points in their last three games so if you take these two teams over their last three games they’re averaging 33 and 31 points so I think that this is a game where both of those team totals could go way over so now looking at the other side though the
Ravens have held teams to an average or their median of 17 points a game and at home just 19 so kind of looking at that comparing it to what you said how much the Texans can put up but how much can Baltimore slow them down and on the flip
Side there Texans have done a great job too allowing only 18 points per game and 20 went on the road so that’s also important to look at but very interesting for both of these numbers here Ryan do you have a take on either
Team total um I mean I I I do think this will be much more of a defensive game because if it is a shootout I don’t think the Texans can keep up because I I do hold the Ravens defense in much higher regard than most other defenses in the league um
So with the with the stance that I do think both of these defenses are solid and like Alex said they the Texans do have a very good Rush defense and Greg Roman is a rushing scheme offensive coordinator I I like this game not to be
Not to be a shootout 44 the total right now here at the South Point so that that that feels about right for these two teams given the the prowess both on offense and defense uh the other Saturday game the Packers at the 49ers 515 kickoff on Fox uh open nine and a
Half and that’s where it sits right behind us really no movement whatsoever on this game the total down a half a point to 50 uh this one I think could be a a shootout even more so uh than the earlier game the team totals for this
One Green Bay at 20 A2 49ers at 29 A2 so you you put those two together you’re right at the 50 in terms of the the team total so the the splits pretty tight you got two top 10 even top eight offenses Green Bay comes in averaging the eighth
Most points per game 23.9 but then with the big showing last week their average over the last three games comes out to just under 33 points per game San Francisco averaging 28.9 points a game the second highest offense in terms of points per game in the league they’re
Also the third best defense in the league league in terms of points per game it’s 17 1 half points per game allowed and I think that’s going to be the X Factor in this one for sure Green Bay put up what 48 points last week on
The Cowboys cuz I took a little flyer on one team to go over 50 points and I was very disappointed that they they almost got there but put off the gas at the end yeah they did so I think both these numbers are just right for their team
Total I would be a little nervous about going over for either of them but I mean you mentioned it San Francisco really good especially at home and for the year 30 points a game is their median so I don’t know I think they’re just right that’s the beauty of uh bookmaking in
The modern age in terms of the the regulated Sports books especially in Nevada where they’ve been doing it so long is that they are razor tight with these with these edges and they are usually right right on a very few and far between of the games where Vegas
Just gets it completely wrong um I already do have a piece of San Francisco in in a teaser I’m I’m a teaser guy in the NFL I’m on San Francisco Isco and Houston so I’ve got a Saturday teaser and hopefully that gives me a little bit
Of extra bankroll uh to try to uh try to have a little bit more juice on Sunday it’ll be it’ll be interesting but again that’s that’s neither here nor there I did a six and a half point teaser so I got the the 49ers down to three I got
The Texans up to 15 from where it was I bet it two days ago so it’ll be interested to see in the Saturday games and then on Sunday the game that’s taken the least amount of action right behind us at the at the book uh the Buccaneers
At the Lions and I think if you were to pick a game that would take the least amount of action it would be this one uh but it it is going to be a really interesting match up the Lions defeated the Bucs 20 to6 in Tampa Bay week six
Again do you take much stock into a game that occurred three months ago no especially because Tampa Bay do you remember beginning of the season they didn’t have an identity yet especially offensively they were trying to run more and become a run team and then they realized that wasn’t working so they got
Rid of that and went back to their passing game and then they started to click again and figure out who they were so I can’t take too much of that from Tampa Bay and I do disagree with both of you and I I do talent-wise maybe a
Little bit Baker Mayfield but the way he is playing this year is the best that we’ve seen so far yeah I won’t deny that in the NFL so and he’s a complete competitor yeah and he’s a veteran I and I trust veterans a little bit more than
Rookies with those other two are who have moved forward but so um looking at these two I mean I’m not surprised that it’s the least bet game but there’s a game for everybody and I’m very interested in this and I think it’s going to be a great game I think this would probably
Be my favorite dog to take with the points I think the Lions win but I think the Bucks cover here then we got to get to team totals Ryan do you have any thoughts on the game before we get to team totals not not particularly not with
Anything to back it up it’s just it’s it just the the feel of this one it’s just no one’s that excited about it other than the people in Detroit I mean they are more excited they they make up for the rest of the country with how excited
They are and I mean you want to tell them they could potentially host an NFC Championship next week if against a division rival that would be incredible that would be incredible and they would need Green Bay to beat San Francisco for that to happen so it might be the only
Time in Lions fans lives that they’re out there cheering for the Packers and that’s mainly just because they want to be the one to take him down that’s right that’s exactly right for Detroit 27 and a half is the team total that might be my favorite one uh Tampa Bay’s defense
Is fifth in the league in points per game allowed but there are certain areas where I think Detroit can take advantage of in the passing game a lot of the success for Tampa Bay has come in in terms of stopping the Run namely the tush push last weekend but uh and then
For for The Buckaneers 21 and a half so they’re expecting this one with a 48 and a half point total to with the team totals actually being just slightly over that so I I I think it’s a matter of just different books having different numbers but this one out of all of them
I think has the biggest potential potential to actually be a shootout where it gets into the 50s and even the 60s Matt I think you just found my favorite one too Lions over 27 and a half their Median on the year is 28 at home 30 so that’s already a good
Advantage right there but then you are correct about Tampa Bay and what’s a little frightening is their split so their median points on the road is 20 and they allowed 24 so they did have games where they really let the other team get ahead and they got away from
Them so allowing 24 points the Lions median is 30 at home I think that 27 and A2 is very enticing there that might be my favorite one of the ones that we’ve gone over so far we got some of the betting splits as well in terms of money versus tickets what’s interesting in
This one is it’s a reverse uh Detroit taking 60% of the tickets but just 35% of the money and again there’s way less bet on this game than any other game but that always kind of can tell you something in terms of tickets typically the public money typically the sharps
When it it comes to a big split like that is that something that you ever really buy into or is that something that you look at because I know people that they follow them religiously and I know people that could care less about the betting splits um not I I pay
Attention to it I’m like that I’m somewhere the middle right exactly it’s it’s I think for certain games there are edges that you can find I do too and especially since working here and working closely with Vinnie and Chris Andrews and getting to actually hear them firsthand um they’re definitely is
Edges and that’s very interesting and funny to me because the sharps have been on Tampa Bay throughout this whole season so that doesn’t surprise me at all that the public is with the Lions here and we’re getting some money on the Bucks Buccaneers a top five defensive
Team and as they say especially in the playoffs defense travels so that’ll be one of the more interesting matchups I will say out of the four but it’s one that has really not garnered a lot of public interest I’ll be curious to see when the late money comes in and who
It’s on and you want to go from the game with the least amount of tickets and money to the game with by far the most amount of tickets and money behind us at the South Point we got Kansas City and buffalo third straight year they’ve matched up in the playoffs Buffalo
Looking to get the monkey off their back the Chiefs have been their Boogyman and they’ve got an opportunity for the first time at home it’s the first ever road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes it just speaks to the incredible consistency that Andy Reed and Company have fostered
In in KC but you want to know how much more money and tickets this has taken yes 73% of the total handle on the NFL on straight spread bets this weekend is on this game it is nearly four times as much money as has been wagered on every
Other game combined just incredible I’m not surprised at all and when I went back to go you know get get the splits earlier I was looking at it and there was you know couple couple of them in the tens of thousands and then this one way way more this one is is garnering
All of the public interest and for good reason it’s the game of the year in the NFL so far it is and people have been looking forward to this matchup since we saw it last year or the year before but yeah any thoughts on this one so bar
Ryan no I I just think the uh the league got this one right they uh found found a way to get this match up in the playoffs and it it is very much the it makes sense that this game has the most handle just because it is the the guys that we
See on TV and every single commercial and the the number on this one back to Buffalo at 2 and a half and it’s one interesting thing especially at a book the size of South Point here in Nevada they’ve gone off of three twice it opened at Buffalo two and a half they
Took enough action to move it to three the second it got to three they took a bunch of action on Kansas City they moved it back to two and a half yesterday they toggled it back to three took a bunch of action right away all of
A sudden it’s back to Buffalo two and a half and I would not be surprised to see that be the case really throughout the week and if if you’re the Chiefs better you like it at three that gets you a a field goal split you get in a teaser you
Can get it up to 9 N and a half and I think that’s going to be the case all weekend toggling back and forth in terms of the team totals in this one though Kansas City at 21 A2 Buffalo at 24 A2 and with a total of 46 that puts them
What do you know right at it on terms of the team totals you’re right and it goes with the spread perfectly right bills 24 ac21 so the bills 29 Points at home and allowing just 17 and a half Kansas City on the road this year their median is 21
Points and they allowed 18 and a half on the road so the bills look like that they should be able to get there for sure um it’s a matter of their defense right and we know that they’ve been dealing with injuries and I we got to check on the status because they even
Had a little a few more this past weekend against the Steelers so that’s going to be the biggest thing and Casey’s defense is really good so you think that uh the buff the bills get there over 24 and a half or you think Kansas City holds them I could see it I
Might even take a piece of Kansas City under 21 a half okay would you believe me if I told you they had a League average offense this year yes 15th in terms of points per game uh Kansas City’s been pretty inconsistent however I I will say to the to the other side of
That argument this is when they’re at their best is a playoff game it’s going to be a new experience for them going on the road at least over the last you know decade or so of dominance thanks to the regular season record but this is when
Kansas City has been at their best and uh this one the game of the week Kansas City taking 62% of the money but the bills with 57% of the ticket so that tells you the Public’s all over the bills and some of the sharps especially when that line was able to bounce back
Up to three the the sharps kind of jumping all over that I’m surprised so this total actually moved up a little bit right and then the the Ravens one moved down they kind of flip-flo but a little bit I bet that I am looking at to Matt is the Bills first half
Because Kansas City let me see this is just three and six ATS first half since week 11 Buffalo five and three so they’re trying to get out and score quickly then another good one if you’re looking at the total here and you’re thinking over I would look more at that
First half Kansas City six and three to the over since week 11 in the first half Buffalo 43 and one second half Kansas City one and seven to the under so they’ve typically been trying to get all their scoring done in the first half kind of slowing down and playing really
Good defense in that second half and you’ve seen those kind of just come to a halt there and correct me if I’m wrong Ryan you maybe have a number on this but wasn’t there a stretch towards the end of the regular season where Kansas City scored like three points in second half
Combined it was one of the worst stretches in in NFL history in terms of scoring in the second half especially for a competitive team so when I say the KC has been a little bit inconsistent yeah that’s kind of what we’ve seen but again as I had mentioned for the the
Previous game with uh Tampa Bay defense does travel and this is the best Kansas City defense that Patrick Mahomes has ever had yes it definitely is and now we’re starting to see their offense click and we’re trying to we’re starting to see the guys that Patrick Mahomes trust especially Rashid rice and Travis
Kelce looked better last week you can tell that he needed the rest as well so it’s going to be a great game I’m looking forward to this one for sure and again this game taking 73% of the money that has been wagered at the south point
On the one game game that’s 3.7 nearly four times as much as any or all the other games combined so the public all over this game and I don’t see that changing at all before the weekend so those are our NFL thoughts let us know what you think on the live comments be
Sure to subscribe to the South Point Studio Channel as well we’ll step aside for a brief break when we return we’re talking hardwood we’re talking NBA and college basketball big slate tonight in both don’t go anywhere once you’ve satisfied your hunger get ready for more of the hottest casino
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Door is the race book over 150 seats each with its own TV screen There are 16 interactive player terminals so you can bet right from your [Applause] seat it’s Sports by the book here at the South Point Studio along with Alex white I’m Matt neverett Ryan McCormack on on
The other side of the glass and and Andrew helping us out in the production team as well today so plenty of NFL talk and that’ll be the theme kind of throughout the rest of the week so we wanted to kind of cut it off there and
Talk some hoops we’re talking NBA a lot of news going on around the NBA and this is the time of year when you really can start to lock it in a lot of people don’t follow the NBA as much until the playoffs and you know as a longtime fan
Of the league I can kind of see why but these are the games where you can take advantage of certain lines especially in terms of backto backs rest versus rust like we were talking about with the Ravens but it’s a a pretty fair comparison to this time of year in the
NBA because for certain teams you know your Minnesota your Utah your Denver your Portlands the travel and some of the other logistic elements make it a little bit Tougher Than A Team like Miami you know a team like New York where it’s you’re in and out it’s quick
And easy weather’s typically pretty good uh this is the time of year when you can take advantage of some of these one-off games for sure in the NBA you are you you are correct Matt and what about yesterday we took advantage of a total that was uh priced wrong cuz they didn’t
Think some of the Denver Nuggets players were playing and that nuggets um Sixers game Flew Over the total so I’m hoping uh we have another one here so I like the Milwaukee Bucks caves over 236 and a half now this kind of went down a little
Bit so it’s one of those instances where you kind of following the market and it’s going away from you but I think it’s gone down too far Milwaukee’s 25 and 15 to the over seven and four against division opponents three and one in their last four the Cavs are going to
Try and slow it down but they’re a good defensive team but they’re playing a top three offense here in the Bucks well when I walked into the studio today I I saw ESPN was on and Brian windhorse doing a a report from the Cavs practice facility I thought for years and years
And years that he was LeBron James personal reporter but he’s in the house in Cleveland so they they’re going to have an advantage at least in that you said you’re on the over on this one I’m on the over yes what what number did you
Get 236 and a half is the total that I’m seeing 236 and 1/2 is correct it’s down to 235 and A2 now even better so wait this one you got to just wait kind of fade that line movement do you do you anticipate that getting any lower this
One starting uh in about an hour just under an hour uh I wouldn’t say any lower than 235 now might be the time to strike yeah is what you’re saying so bucks Cavs it’s 503 504 in the rotation number Alex likes over and you’re getting the best of the number right now
If you hop on that right now that game starts at 4:30 here on the West Coast this afternoon one other one that you’re taking a look at at the Hornets at the Pelicans short travel for Charlotte New Orleans laying 12 at home in the total
Of 229 so these next two are really just leans because I didn’t actually play them but kind of wanted to get you guys’ thoughts on them as well I think 12 and a half is way too much for Charlotte here and I know they have not looked
Great but now they get lamelo ball back and it’s his third game back and he’s improved in each of the games since he’s been back 12 and a half here with Charlotte I know they’re on the road but this is definitely a lean for me any
Thoughts from either of you two see this one’s tough like you said that is a big number and New Orleans has been a as big a disappointment as if if not you know one of the biggest disappointments in the league in terms of what they were
Expected to be a couple of years ago to what they are now thanks to the uh mortgage that they took out on Zion Williams and his his his body but uh I I do agree this is a big number lamelo balls one of the most underrated players
In the NBA he gets a lot of flack because of his dad and a lot of his Antics and the the Family itself you got to be able to take that out when you’re handicapping a game like this yeah no I mean I do think he I think he’s
Fantastic I think he’s starting to get more recognition and talked about a lot more and and Zion Williamson is coming into him his own and he’s uh he’s had a much better year now that he’s actually playing yeah that’s that’s been the big thing for Zion that the skill has never
Been in question it’s been whether he’s been healthy enough to be on the floor exactly like too many extra curricular activities for my man Duke for Zion Williamson and then the last one that you had a lean on was the Nets at the Trailblazers Brooklyn laying 6 and a
Half and the total at 221 and A2 okay so this one’s already a very low total but I was looking at this one under I got a little nervous because I know Portland is one of the worst offensive teams in the league but they also aren’t very good defensively so kind of nervous
About how much they let the the Nets run away with this one but that’s why I was mostly look at it kind of a fade to the Trailblazer so maybe I should be looking more at Brooklyn here but it’s a low total and I I think that’s for a good
Reason so I would lean to the under so brief look at the NBA slate tonight Alex has a ticket in pocket on over in Bucks Cavs that number uh you got 236 and A2 you can get the better of it now at 235 A2 so Hustle the window get your app out
Take the over there and then the leans Charlotte plus 12 and under in Portland Brooklyn that number at 221 and a half so those just some quick NBA plays and now to our bread and butter we’re going we’re going to keep it on the hardwood it college basketball and the the game
Of the day we’ll lead off with and it’s a really interesting matchup in stores Connecticut number 18 kraton at number one Yukon first time the Huskies have been the number one team in the country since 2009 you want to take a guess at the number one song in the country the
Last time that Yukon was the number one team um give me a hint 2009 well what do you think Ryan how what what grade were you in in 2009 that was uh I was still in elementary school so I’m going to say something with Katy Perry not a bad
Guess not a bad guess do you want to throw something out there or do you want me to tell you you can tell me was it Taylor Swift no it was Boom Boom Pow by the blackeyed PE okay number one movie was Avatar too I always forget that
Feeling but yeah that just tells you how long it has been even as the defending national champion since Yukon has been the number one team in the country and uh they’re laying six tonight and you and I are both on the Huskies yes yes we are and they’ve been so dominant at home
It’s hard not to back them here especially now that they are the one seed and most of the other top ranked teams have been upset this past week so you know they’re going to be ready to play they’ve been very good at their on their own home court cranon they’re good
Too I mean they’re 4-2 straight up in conference but they’re just two and four ATS so it’s a little bit more about how dominant the Huskies have been at home for me here their last two home games they beat the Paul 84 to 58 and then
Georgetown 77 to 60 so six I’m pretty confident that they can cover this your handicaps a little different than mine but I still I still like it and I’m I’m excited for you to share I I I will say the handicap that I did I I like the
Number before I saw some extra details about the game a couple other main reasons that I love Yukon in this one students just returned for the spring semester on Monday it is syllabus week which if you know know anything about about college scheduling no one does anything except
For uh go out to their local uh adult establishments throughout the entirety of syllabus week it is $2 beer night in stores and it’s the first time in 15 years that they have offered this promotion so you’re going to get a Rowdy Ruckus fan base inebriated or not
They’re going to be ready to go and ready to ready to cheer on the boys how about that for handicap Ryan definitely the stats you want to know bringing you all the hard information that you can’t find anywhere else right here on Sports by the book so Alex and I are both a
Little bit to it right it’s so funny cuz I told Sean Yukon minus 6 earlier and he’s like I want a bed I don’t have to sweat out and then Matt tells him all that Stephanie goes oh okay I like it exactly if it’s good enough for Sean
It’s good enough for me right right production Maestro behind the glass who uh gets afternoons off what a nice guy um you’ve got two other play every morning early morning right I like I like the afternoon shift uh so again Alex and I are both on Yukon
Minus 6 you’ve got a couple of other plays and then I’ve got a trio at the end we’ll start it off first yours are actually back toback in the rotation numb 709 710 711 712 tell us all about them okay so I’m going with some AAC
Overs tonight so to Lane at UAB it is 164 and A5 is what I got that’s what I’m hopefully it’s still there okay both teams are 10 and five to the over if you’ve been following Sports by the book um you know that we been tracking these two-lane overs they’re 5-
One to the over on the road UAB is 6-2 to the over in conference play and two-lane plays really quick 15 quickest in the country next game Tulsa just played to Lane that one went over for so now Tulsa is hosting San Antonio UTSA
That total is 153 and a half UTSA is 10 and six to the over and six and2 on the road Tulsa 2- one so far in conference play and as I mentioned they just played Lane that total was 181 both these teams play a pretty fast pace under 75th in
The country so you got you got me convinced on both of those especially the the first one I like the I like your reasoning on two lane yeah two lane UAB the the UTSA Tulsa matchup might be the best mascot matchup in the country tonight you’ve got the road runners
Against the golden hurricanes not bad I don’t too bad right but yeah if I want to see a golden hurricane oh yeah what’s what’s the difference it might be a little scary I don’t know yeah all hurricanes are scary I lived in Florida for a while you don’t want you don’t
Want to see a hurricane no matter what color it is so again tand uabb and UTSA Tulsa you’re on overs for both of those overs for both of those yep and that’s it for me so I’m interested to hear yours yeah I wanted to get your thoughts there’s one in particular that I’m
Interested in your opinion on uh first for me a game that starts in about 10 minutes if you can get to the counter get your app out uh I like Nebraska catching three in Piscataway against Rutgers uh Corn Huskers versus The Scarlet night doesn’t quite have the
Same ring to it as road runners golden hurricanes but I I like Nebraska ruer number 262 in the country in offensive efficiency they don’t have a player averaging 13 points a game so when they get into crunch time and they need someone to get the ball to they really
Don’t have that go-to point score whether it’s Off the Bench or in the starting lineup uh Nebraska won this matchup in their only matchup last year by 10 in New Jersey it’s the second straight year they’re having to go out east to to take on Rutters in Nebraska
Got a road win against Kansas State earlier in this season and if you watch yesterday’s show we were talking about the big 12 and just how good that conference is top to bottom I mean that that’s the best conference in college basketball and K State no slouch in that
Best division conference rather so I like Nebraska uh getting three points on the road at ruter take a look at the money line too if you can get it anywhere up near 150 I I don’t hate that whatsoever another one that I like uh 727 728 on the board Providence in
Chicago taking on to Paul the Friars have won the last eight matchups in this conference rivalry six of those eight have been by double digits the only one that was anywhere close was an overtime game where they won it by nine at least in the last four years or so Providence
Also 12th in the country in terms of defensive efficiency depal number 241 out of 361 in offensive efficiency so it’s strength on weakness it is a matchup that has favored Providence for quite some time so I like the Friars laying 9 and a half on the road into
Paul and I’m on a total but I’m on an under Arizona State hosting UCLA UCLA one of the slowest teams in the country they come in 314th in Tempo rated by kenpom Arizona State at 73rd not overly fast but they definitely don’t play Slow Arizona State the 31st best team in the
Country in terms of defensive efficiency UCLA also number 45 in that category too so you’re looking at two top 50 defensive teams in the country big note for me too is that UCLA scores the fourth most points from inside the circle tips layons dunks they they have
The fourth most of those types of points in the country so their game is inside out they go slow they’re big and I think if they can do enough defensively to slow down Arizona State who is a two and a half Point favorite it’s a low total
At 131 a half but I I I kind of like under uh it’s probably my least favorite of these three but I still really like it I do have the ticket in pocket so again Nebraska Providence and under UCLA Arizona State what say you very good I I
Am always looking for unders so I might have to uh tail that one for sure I do want your opinion on the other game with Arizona in it and they are hosting USC this side has jumped up um Arizona opened as a 15-point favorite I think
And they’re now all the way up to 19 and a half I just think that’s so many points and that Line’s big and Arizona is one of the best teams in the country regardless ranking or whatever says they they are one of the Premier teams in all of
College basketball that’s a big number I mean like you got UNC Lang 21 tonight there are there are some big numbers on the board this evening and it’s just a matter of how much you want a stomach I’ve been burned as of late on on laying big numbers with favorites it was Purdue
Over the last two weeks and I tried to fade the boiler makers last night and that did not go well Indiana laid an egg so some of these big numbers you really got to pick your spots when when it comes to laying double- digit points in in in college basketball
Um Ryan are there any games that you’re taking a look at tonight in terms of college hoops um not really not on the board the one the only one I have interest in is that Carolina game and that’s just because I am a Tar Hill fan
And so I do think 21 is a lot to lay um even though Louisville is a six and 10 team this year they’re bad yeah they they have not looked good at all um but Carolina looked dominant against Syracuse in their last matchup um and they they’ve they’ve looked every bit a top
15 team this year I don’t know if I’d give give them credit to be number four right now which they are um so I don’t know how confident I would be in laying the 21 U but that that’s the only game that I really have any interest in today
Yeah that game at six o’clock uh here on the West Coast the other game that’s got a big number that I was keeping an eye on is actually between two ranked teams Houston drops all the way to number five after a couple of losses over over the
Last 10 days or so they take on number 25 Texas Tech in Houston and the Cougars Ling 13 that’s a a decently big number for a top 25 matchup I’d be interested to hear if you’ve got anything on that one at all let me see where I made that
Cuz I just passed it over so it must I must have thought it was just about right must be yeah total of 129 and a half two which two good defensive teams that that number feels right as well yes it does that’s a that’s a that’s a good
Match up that’s a rivalry match up in terms of the Big 12 the Texas based teams always kind of give give each other their best their best uh games I think Houston’s got a lot to prove Pro I’m not going to lay this number but I
Think that they go out like I said with something to prove and really really put the clamps on Texas Tech which is their game but then go out and Kelvin Samson has to make an adjustment on the offensive side of the ball and he’s one of the best coaches in the country so
You would think that he’d be able to figure something out against an inferior opponent who are your top three teams as of right now it’s tough I don’t like I don’t know if Yukon is my number one best team I think that they’ve taken advantage of uh their their situation
And riding the the high from winning it all last year and kind of continuing that in I’m big on Arizona and we we talked about that off the air I haven’t put it down yet but I really really am interested in a future on the wild cats
I I saw it at 14 to1 last night and uh if it is still that number maybe in a week or so or anything above 12 to one I would I would take a bite Ford do is always dangerous that’s the thing this year with with the NCAA that we haven’t
Seen as much of in years past is literal parody before it was you know one or two teams and then kind of everybody else this year who the heck knows who’s going to be you know number one seed come tournament time you’re right and it it
Makes it so much fun and you said Purdue I think um I’ll be looking to find a future on Purdue here soon because I think they are going to be the team to beat and I know they have to do it and get past the first round but I think
This is the year and with this UNC team Ryan do you think that they’ve got enough in the tank throughout the season to not only you know continue to win in the ACC but they’re going to have to win the ACC tournament if they want a number
One top four overall seed in this year’s tournament I mean I do think that they have enough they still have Armando Bott so that’s every bit the the wooden Award winner um and so that that’s where that’s what their offense runs through um but again I I
Don’t with a fan perspective I don’t hold I I see them not being able to re have reached their full potential yet so that is the question of can they keep it going can they get their offense actually running they did they did lose Caleb love to Arizona and that’s kind of
Why I don’t hold Arizona in a high Red Guard is because any team with Caleb love is going to live and die by Caleb love because he shoots wherever he wants to shoot from and so Carolina is stronger than they were last year but can they produce as much as they did the
LA with in Hubert Davis Davis’s first year and last year that that remains to be seen I mean and you want to talk about a team that lost a legendary coach and has gotten better with a lot of the same roster I mean Armondo Bott made a
Business decision to come back this year he basically said it he goes I’m gonna make more money playing college ball than I would in the NBA he’s one of those guys like psycho te Tyler hansboro back in the day where their game doesn’t necessarily translate as well to the
Next level as as some might think that oh he’s the best player in college basketball Well yeah if his game doesn’t translate yeah I mean we saw Drew Timmy he’s been cut by two different NBA teams already after barely being drafted he was the best player in the country for a
Couple of years it is true and you can you can see that with him that I it might not translate so well in the NBA but I love this North Carolina team and I was well Jeff told me because he’s like I see your numbers you should be
Laying the points with North Carolina and I was like it’s too many on the road and man they handled their business there so I think that I think they can make a run this year I really do definitely hope so I mean I’m wearing my my Carolina blue tie today so it looks
Good Ryan you always look good though I need to get some glasses so I can be more like you if we could show our our pixa want to definitely fly through those Alex has an NBA play and and a couple of College Plays here and uh I’m
On Nebraska plus the three I’m on Providence minus 9 and a half I’ll lay the points with the friar in a big time Road matchup against dep Paul I am on Yukon laying the six $2 beer night don’t forget it’s syllabus week in in stores so they’re going to be crazy and that’s
Going to be a real big homecourt advantage and then Arizona State UCLA under 130 and a half those are my plays and then Alex is on the over in Cavaliers bucks Yukon minus 6 that’s our Squad ride of the day you’re on over in both of those AAC games tan at UAB UTSA
At Tulsa very very good chance that I get in with you on over in at least one if not both of those probably two lane which I blame me so I had a bad night last night but I saved it salvaged my college betting night with a 2un live
Bet on Colorado State they were down 10 at home against Air Force still laying four and kind of a dumb play by the numbers but just knowing what I know about those two teams especially the home Corner advantage that the Rams have in Fort Collins what do you know game
Goes to overtime Rams win by nine it was no sweat once it got to overtime so that was what saved my day yesterday after a couple of bad bad uh plays but we’re hoping for some better luck today and uh we’re hoping that you guys have have
Good luck as well be sure to leave your comments be sure to like And subscribe to South Point Studio on YouTube as well that’ll do it for the Wednesday edition of sports by the book Jeff parls Back In This Very seat tomorrow same time same place three to four here on the West
Coast got a guest from three man weave too three man weave those guys do phenomenal work college basketball yeah they’re great follows on on Twitter as well especially my man Jim root yeah they they do some great stuff at the three man weave so don’t miss it
Tomorrow Jeff parl returns 3 to four here on Sports by the book my partner Alex white for Ryan McCormick behind the glass also an and Andrew making us look good although that’s a really really tough task especially on this side of the screen that’ll do it for us today
That’s been Sports by the book I’m Matt nett saying thanks so much for tuning in be sure to like comment and subscribe to South Point [Applause] Studio
