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Good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 American Express DFS tactic show as the whole week has been still feel a little bit under the weather I do feel better famous last words but no worries I have double the water ready for all of your
Questions uh your lineup suggestions uh all of that good stuff to dominate the weekend contests uh for the American Express for your DFS slates uh so we have everything you’ll need tonight projected ownerships um updated weather forecast everything you need uh looking forward to it I’m going to save my voice
So let’s get right into it shall we all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best tool out there for golf analytics there are a lot of great tools don’t get me wrong I simply believe believe fantasy National is the best go
Check it out you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where I post research every week on the PGA tour that came out yesterday uh around the previous eight Champions at the American
Express I only went back eight years because that is the current Roa uh of courses that’s when they took over in 2016 so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X or Instagram X is
Also where I place my weekly betting cards and my player exposures for my DFS contests that’ll be no different that comes out every Wednesday after the DFS tactics show so that’ll come out tonight after the show so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a
Follow over at X then lastly for social media gay handle is in the description he writes a good very good article called The Fringe it’s a very good way to start your week uh in preparation for uh the tournament at hand and if you are a subscriber to
His article uh then you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat however I know he has posted his thoughts into chat tonight but I know he’s not going to be able to make it at least to the show or this this show this evening
Might be able to make it a little bit later as he is at a curling match he’s actually playing in a curling match uh so uh again go show Gabe some support uh follow him over on social media subscribe to that article uh and go wish him some good luck on rolling a
Different kind of rock than what we’re used to talking about here on this kind of show hopefully he rolls it like Taylor Montgomery and not like Jason duffner uh but go show gave some support follow him over on social media and usually uh barring unforeseen circumstances I will join him in his
Substack chat every Wednesday after calls calls and then lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all who are you all targeting this week what kind of Wagers have you made who you pivoting to uh fading away from I’ve already got the poll question typed up
So I will submit that uh into chat right after the intro would love to hear your all’s thoughts on uh the chat question tonight uh but any lineup questions uh player decisions that you’re trying to make uh throw it in chat would be would
Love to be able to help you out or give you what I see um in terms of an advantage or who you’re uh trying to decide between so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 American Express and we we are going to
Start over at the super forecast over on windfinder and my suspicion is that with us being in Hawaii the first two weeks we just didn’t get a super forecast uh because we clearly get one now that we are on the Continental us but as I mentioned I have the poll question typed
Out so the poll question for the for this evening um you know give or take a little bit I had to fudge a couple of the numbers just to to make it uh work which 9k player at or under 10% projected ownership are you most confident in there is one player that’s
Uh about uh 8/10 of of of percent above 10% according to Fantasy national uh and then there’s one kind of right at or um a little above 10% but as of right now there are are four players in the 9ks that are under 10% uh 9600 Jason day 9,400 Sam Burns
9300 Tony fenale and 9200 Ricky Fowler which of those four players are you most confident in so would love to hear your all’s input into that but we turn our attention to the forecast hey good evening Pete thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated you have uh caught me
On I think uh Famous Last Words um but I think is the best night of the E of of this week I believe I’m getting over um whatever was bothering me um but you’re a longtime viewer you can probably tell that the uh the voice is still a little
Scratchy but no worries I have double I double fisted as they say I guess um for this evening to get through it um but thanks for jumping in chat hopefully you are ready for the American Express and ready to get the PGA Tour um season off well uh even though it’s into
The third week I haven’t seen you much so far the ear this uh this uh PJ tour season looking at the um super forecast for Coachella Valley look it’s it’s been like this all week just no no wind no rain uh cool temperatures at least I would suspect cool temperatures for
Coachella Valley this time of year not reaching uh 70 at least in terms of a projected high but no wind the wind doesn’t change direction either so this is this is a a week to just play your guys now yes this is a 54 hole cut or a
Three-day cut we we will not have the super forecast for Saturday which is when the cut is made but I mean you can see the same story from Thursday and Friday very little wind Sunday very little wind it’s just um looks like a pristine week if not a little bit chilly
Especially in the mornings but a pristine week for golf so just uh play your guys there’s no wave advantage or course advantages or anything to that effect all right so with that we’re going to move to Fantasy National and because there is absolutely zero wind we’re not going to do anything
With the wind filters so in the past calendar year plus going back to the beginning of 2023 our top performers when rounds have been easy have been Alex noren Eric Cole Xander Schley Scotty sheffler JT Poston Patrick Hanley Doug gim Chris Kirk Adam hadwin and Ben Griffin um look this is a traditionally
Very easy tournament uh especially last year the three courses played second third and fourth easiest on the PGA tour across all courses uh second third and fourth easiest in relation to par uh only behind the century and caloa just a very very easy tournament um very short
Courses which also lends itself to a little bit of ease so give these players if you have not finalized your lineups uh give these players uh a significant boost in your last minute um considerations you know moving on down a little bit here sunjay Stephan joerger Bo Hustler Dylan woo Ryan Palmer Taylor
Pendri Tyler Duncan Tom Kim Alex SMY Jason day there’s your top 20 in terms of performance in rounds that were easy in 2023 plus two tournaments so far this calendar year the other end of the spectrum players who did not play well when rounds were easy Tyson Alexander
Kevin kizner Ryan brim Kevin stman David lingor Andrew Novak Andrew Landry chz reevy Ben Taylor Jason duffner Lee Hodes David lipsky and on down you can see the players that have not played well when rounds have been easy uh not going to do anything with short courses uh cuz I
Have a few short course metrics in the mixed condition model um but if you want to see total performance on short courses I covered that both in the Monday night dayto dive show and Sunday night’s initial research so uh I ask you to go check that out after the show this
Evening if you are interested in seeing total performance on short courses but as I alluded to we have a mixed condition model to talk about so let’s go ahead and and go straight there the mixed condition model this week um I kind of narrowed it down a little bit uh
In in terms of I I reduced the amount of metrics that I wanted to look at now I you I looked at a lot of the same metrics from last year that produced a really uh honestly a pretty poor results based um mixed condition model so I wanted to
Make it even more uh basic um just kind of uh go back to the basics if you will and the first thing that we’re going to talk we talked about this week is that it’s a ball striking course uh now putting will factor in a little bit and
We’ll talk about that um there we go but this is primarily a ball striking course which you would expect from a Pete die design especially at the stadium course which is going to be played two of the four rounds for the players who make the
Cut so I’ve got 10% off the te and I went with short courses instead of easy to par I used easy to par last year it turned out not to be very predictive so I’m going to see how the uh short course filter does for the off the te off the
Tea this year and all even though all three of these courses are easy all three of these courses are short as well um and sometimes shorter courses uh players can take advantage of shorter courses in in various ways as opposed to to when it’s easy so I got 10% off the
Tea on short courses and I did have to go back to 2022 to get enough rounds to make it statistically significant for for majority of the players in the field I believe there were maybe 10 to 15 players that still had single digits in terms of number of rounds on short
Courses but if I backed it out to 2022 majority of players had 36 you know and I would say a good 80% of the field had at least 20 rounds which is what you’re kind of looking for so those two um metrics or excuse me the two metrics
With the short course filter go back to 2022 all the others minus this one is from 2023 uh standard 15% in Strokes gain approach you could absolutely argue to put 20% in here uh with the Pete die but I do feel that there is a couple other
Things that I wanted to emphasize with the approach um so I felt like I had quite a bit of in the ball striking at least with the off the te so now 15% in approach I didn’t want to go enormous into the ball striking because we’re
Going to have to do a little bit of putting and some other things so 15% approach if anything I think it could go to 20 um but I wouldn’t want to do too much more than that 10% on putting on poet trivialis of course we talked throughout the week of the courses that
That are poetry VIIs and as a reminder those fores are harbort toown uh the host of the RBC Heritage inisbrook host of the vpar quell Hol host of the Wells Fargo of course where we are this week Stadium course we won’t get putting data from the Nicholas tournament or linta
The alternate courses or the the the RO Roa courses don’t have shot link but still including the Stadium Course TPC San Antonio TPC Saw Grass and TTC Scottsdale those seven courses those seven tournaments are excuse me are where the Poetry V Alice is on the uh PGA Tour now there
Were a few other courses you could look at too um if you could get data for Austin Country Club um in terms of uh the Dell match play which is no longer on the schedule that’s why I did not include it and fantasy Nation na doesn’t
Have the Dell match play uh in its uh Records since it’s not a stroke play event but if you were able to find some data around putting for the match play that is also poet trivialis the Zurich Classic TPC Louisiana has poet trivialis greens that’s not in fantasy National
Because it’s a team event um you’d have to go back quite a ways for single events or it being a a solo event but TVC Louisiana also has poet trivialis so there are a lot of courses on the PJ tour that have poet trivialis 10% and going all the way back to 2019
Again to get enough rounds to make it statistically significant for the majority of the players in the field the biggest Factor uh this week which we’ve talked about all week um it’s no real surprise considering how easy this course is it’s birdies are better gained and using the
Filter when it’s easy originally I had 25% in here and I wanted to keep 25% in here I did back it down to 20% cuz I wanted to emphasize one other statistic a little bit so 20% birdies are better gained when it’s easy look there there
Are a few Eagles here but really it’s you just got to you got to get all the birdies that you can there’s it was the biggest Gap uh biggest um absolute value distance away from each other when we looked Monday night between Bird’s gained and bogy’s avoided at the stadium
Course it’s Bogies be damned Bogies just don’t they don’t happen often here and they really kind of don’t matter you just I mean you pars are not good scores here other than maybe the par 3es pars are generally not good scores here you’ve got to go low uh YouTube notifications have been
Working for me okay I will I’ll I’ll check that thanks P I don’t know what um what goes on cuz I I don’t change my settings so you and I could probably um have a good long discussion about YouTube stuff in the background but you know I don’t change my settings so I
Have to see if something changed or whatnot but I appreciate appreciate you letting me know P I’ll check on that after the show 10% in Greens and again this is another of the metrics or the other metric that I used short courses um greens were surprising to me a little
Bit when we went through the prior leaderboards um and saw just how much they contribute contributed to Upper leaderboard or Elite success and it makes a little bit of sense in the in the fact that these greens are small but when we dug into the data around um around the stadium course
You know compared it against other full field courses looked at the specific data it didn’t really stand out but it was hard to ignore the fact that I think especially last year every single player that finished in the top 25 I think it was or 26 whatever the tie break was
Were positive in Greens it’s going to be a decent little Factor even though this this um uh the course is short the players shouldn’t have uh too many long irons in the greens are still small so you don’t have to miss by much to not hit the
Green and these greens are pretty easy from from everything that I have gathered from other pundits if you will they’re pretty easy to read uh they’re not difficult to putt so it’s imperative that you find the green so that’s why I’ve got 10% in Greens gained on short
Courses we or at least I usually don’t talk about sand saves all that much and this is a complete theft of of a metric from Gabe um and again I got this from his article that he writes every week at the beginning of the week on and he
Sends it out on Sunday uh he had a very good note in his preview this week that this these are some of the hardest uh sand traps these are some of the hardest bunkers to play out of uh of course the most famous one being the 19 ft deep uh
Ravine basically um running along I think it’s the 16th maybe it’s the 18th um but uh I this is just a complete uh take from his mixed condition model so I will give the credit to Gabe there uh 5% in sand saves gained um and then the rest of the mixed
Condition model we talked about how for the par 3s and the par fours there didn’t seem to be a specific range that mattered between them so 10% in par 3s and we’re waiting the par 3 is heavier than the par fours cuz at every single one of these courses the par 3s are
Generally the toughest holes on the course the stadium course the first second and third hardest holes are par 3s I believe Lina all four of the par 3es are in the top seven or eight in terms of difficulty and the Nicholas tournament course three of the five
Toughest holes are par 3s so the par three are going to dictate who really really plays well this week I truly believe that that’s where pars are probably pretty good scores that’s where you’re going to make up the ground if you are parring a bunch is on the par 3s
But then we move to the par fours look majority of the par fours fall from 350 to 4 and 400 to 450 but when we went into the data like the 400 to 450 was only about 40% of the total Strokes gained in power fours I just don’t feel like that’s
Enough um weight in one specific range to single it out so I only went with 5% in par fours You could argue to put 10% in here but I really wanted to emphasize these par fives uh linta every single par five at linta measures to this range on the scorecard Nicholas tournament
Course three of the four par fives fall into this range now the stadium course is slightly different it only has one of the four measuring to this range but you know there still the players are still going to play those alternate courses two of the four days these par fivs are
Prevalent and I want to see who really plays these extremely short par fivs the best so 15% in par FES 55 550 okay that is the mixed condition model for this week some obvious weaknesses if things don’t uh play the way I think if around the green matters I just
Don’t think it will if off the tea doesn’t matter as much as I think it does sure um with with no wind I I do not expect bogy avoidance to matter maybe Eagles gained could be a thing maybe but that’s that’s why I feel you know pretty confident to overload the
Percentage in birdies or better gained uh if there’s a specific range of par 4 or Par 3 but really you know I like I said I really just kind of tried to to to get back to the basics here around the American Express especially after last year did not produce a very
Good mixed condition model in terms of results all right with that that let’s go ahead and move on over to Microsoft Excel and the reveal of my rankings and before I do that I see we’ve got a couple of answers here uh in the chat looks like one maybe two uh so far
Everything is going to Tony fenale which makes a lot of sense he’s played decently well here and it’s very rare that you find Tony fenale putting positive at a course so when you do probably want to try to take advantage of it he’s putt well here in
His previous um in the past 5 years he’s gained one stroke uh on the green per tournament so I mean that’s pretty good before I talk about my rankings again thanks to Gabe who and he knew he wasn’t going to be able to to to participate in
The show this evening as he is normally uh here to kind of give what he sees in terms of um other sources of projected ownership he was kind enough to send that over to me before going to his curling match you see me looking off to the side I’m going to use
His Source compare it to Fantasy National now I’m going to pop a cough drop uh he is in Wisconsin so not too far from your neck of the woods P not too far from you at all um I I think he’s in Green Bay proper I’m not I’m not confident on exactly
Where I just know he’s in Wisconsin dark match afterwards I I that I don’t know that I don’t know okay let’s try to get through this show cuz I really thought I was feeling better and my my uh all this talking has me really uh scratching all right so the reveal of my
Rankings number one this week at the American Express Xander Schley Patrick kley number two Scotty sheffler sunj JT Poston round out top five Eric Van royan Cam Davis Eric Cole Alex nor and Alex SMY round out my top 10 so what stood out to me was that all four
Of the five digigit plays the 10ks were the top four players in my mixed condition model now Sun J was you know still top 10 purely by the Numbers uh but he’s really Rising thanks to his performance here at the AMX you see all all of them are getting
A whole lot of a whole lot of attention um kly up until you know very very soon before the stream started was hovering in the 20% range I would expect that to continue K Le’s projected 222% per gab Source kley a whole lot of love Sheffer look after talks about it for as
Much as he gets fairly criticized for his putter he’s actually pretty good on poetry Alis number one in Greens number one in par fours top 10 off the te number one in approach like what’s there to say he is very very expensive that’s an issue
Issue that is a big issue Sun Jay we talked about he’s getting a whole lot of help from the fact that he’s played the American Express so well okay now Xander Xander is one for one in the past five years he finished tied for third last
Year so that’s why he has a very low course value six and seven years ago so right after my cut off he has two miscuts here so you could in theory um be a little skeptical of Xander but he’s the number one player analytically top five burries are better gain number two in
Irons top 10 in Greens top 10 in par 3es top 10 par fours lot to like here with Xander lot to like theander JT Poston at 5 very chalky looking like Beyond Klay the number two projected own player per gabes Source number one at Fantasy National we talk about a lot especially
Through the summer when we get into um say the John de the rocket mortgage the 3M short courses and easy courses JT poting prefers short courses and easy courses number two birdies are better gained when it’s easy good putter on poet triv Alis par for so um it’s going to be hard to
Fade a lot of this area area I think we can do it it’s going to be really really challenging to do it I think we can so stick around if I don’t die before that stick around and I think I’ll be able to show you some some lineups that’ll be able to do
That at the bottom half of my top 10 look Eric Cole on a big heater Rookie of the Year for good reason getting a lot of love number one and birdies are better games when it’s easy now his issue and one of the reasons why you
White might want to fading or at least think about it he can really get wavered off the tea and there are water hazards here uh in Coachella Valley he can really really get wavered with the best of them if he does it too much he’s going he’s going to take
Himself right out of the tournament I don’t think it happens I’m going to be using Eric Cole but if you want to if you want a reason to at least limit your use of him you could Bank on the fact that he can get wward and play that narrative um I’m
Just gonna have to speed through this because I really thought I was better and my voice is just not cooperating all right so let’s sort on the price board here and uh figure out where our top pivots our best fades how we see this price board um
Playing out what the chalk in the area is where other play where our fellow contestants are going and so forth so as I mentioned in the 10ks there are four players and they are top four in my rankings it’s going to be very very hard to fade this area of the price board
I’ve been trying to do it the unique play of Scotty sheffler seemingly per fantasy that that’s not the case with gabes Source the unique play in the 10ks per gab source is Xander and sunjay 185 in between 18 and a half and 19% so kley is is overwhelmingly
Popular this is where uh fantasy National and gabes source disagree fantasy National only has Scotty Sheffer at 14 and uh gab Source has Sheffer well above 20 in the 10ks like I I I think I think I’m going to make Xander my number one player in here even though he does
Have a couple of miscuts you know way back in at the beginning of his career here you’re gaining not a lot but you are gaining a little bit of uniqueness here with Xander uh yeah yeah I think so too um again I can just go by what fantasy National is
Projecting and I and I think they use a lot of their member uh member information and with a with an analytics Community like fantasy National some of the some of the fantasy national players just probably aren’t playing sheffler that’s probably just the case you’re probably right on with that P
Now I’m probably going to go with Xander as my number one player try to get a little bit of uniqueness in the 10ks I will make kley number two he just he loves Desert Golf he’s one of the tournament favorites for a reason loves playing here at the ax I
Think he is something like four for four no no finish over 15th it’s ridiculous how well he has played here sj’s not bad either I I’ll make him number three um and I will make sheffler 4th only because his price is so prohibitive so so very prohibitive moving into the nines not a
Lot except for JT Poston that rate it out extremely well but there’s a lot in the 9ks that I really really like now I am fading one name in particular in here might surprise you who it is but in the 9ks I mean Tom Kim you know he’s a two-time winner at the
Shriners which is also Desert Golf uh you see Tom Kim on these very short par fives top five on them he loves short par five lives not quite not yet not on burns no uh but Tom Kim couldn’t can he he’s he’s a good putter but supposedly not on poetri
Alice so you have a decent reason to avoid him there and I think I’m I’m I’m I’m confident enough in sunj that Tom Kim’s probably going to be close to a fade for me it’s dangerous it’s going to be close to a to a full fade it’s not who I was uh referring
To but I think I’m confident enough in sunj who is two only 200 more the problem is he’s he’s so much more uh widely projected own but I think I think I’m going to go uh try to stay away from Tom Kim I like Jason day I do I like Jason
Day this week I know the irons have been really bad but look he just he really likes it when it’s easy he’s also good at these short par fives I’m not too worried about the putter just not too worried about the putter on poet trivialis I like Jason
Day and I like the fact that I’m getting him at 6% Min I think will be fine although he has not played at least on the PJ tour uh the century or the Sony I think he’ll be fine just like Jason day his irons haven’t been the greatest but he’s been very
Good on poet trivialis a very small sample size but he’s been good on poet trivialis we talked about how these these sand the the bunkers are difficult to play out of he’s top 10 in sand saves there’s a lot to like with minwu so I’ll be using him especially since
Fantasy National has him a 10% or right at it gab source has minwoo closer to you know 133% 13 to 14 I like Sam Burns Sam Burns was a Sam Burns is a name you’ll see on social media a little bit later uh in regards to uh some Wagers that I’ve
Made look the irons are have have not been good they they’re just they’re not they’ve not been good surprisingly he’s not been good at going low when it’s easy so you would think San Burns is the fade around here but you got you got one of the best Putters on
Poetri Alis again he he won the Dell match play which was on poetri Alis this tournament often becomes a putting contest you got to like Sam Burns in a putting contest if he hits enough greens it’s it’s not a guarantee he does that but you got like Sam Burns in a putting
Contest so I like I like Burns enough fal’s good Ricky the player I’m fading in the 9ks I mean full fade no question Justin Thomas have no idea where his game is right now he didn’t obviously didn’t qualify for the century didn’t play the Sony J plays well when it’s easy
But look at these look at these you know poor metrics he is not good or he has not been good at these very short par fives putter on poetry sometimes the PO but putter in general not the greatest far 3es he hadn’t been good so I don’t know if he
Needs to join live but um if you watch the uh 2024 salary preview show that I had at the very end of December in preparation for this for this year I I I mentioned that it could get worse for JT before it gets better um there is there is there is a
Further Rock Bottom than where he has where he has been so I know that’s hard to Fathom but I mean his buddy Jordan spe was at a whole lot lower of a spot than where JT is now Ricky Fowler was certainly at a lot lower
Spot than where JT is now I think JT eventually turns it around he’s he’s way too talented of a player but this could very well get worse before it gets better so JT and Tom Kim JT much more so but Tom Kim as well are my fades in the
9ks I’m going to use some Jason day even though he’s rated you know pretty darn low I just I just like the fit and he played well here last year Min we Le should be fine I I’m going to use Sam Burns if this turns into a putting contest you’re going to
Want Sam Burns very rare that you find a course that Tony fenale putts well he’s putt well here his two or three uh years that he’s played here look JT posted just this this this is right up JT poston’s alley so the other JT this is a chalk I’ll I’ll eat this is
Just right up his alley uh but you know what if if if you’re not if you’re trying to find some uniqueness especially off of JT Poston I really do think Ricky will be good I do think Ricky will be really good this week top 10 birdies are better when it
When it’s easy top 15 with the irons we talked about how difficult these bunkers are if he finds himself in there he’s a marvelous sand player so I really do like Ricky this week moving into the eights um Eric Cole again very popular but for good reason number one par three
Player number one birdies are better gained when it’s easy I like Eric Cole I want to like Shane Larry is a very talented player at 5% here’s the thing with Shane Lowry like I talked with Matthew Fitzpatrick last week and I ended up being correct and I I usually I
Mean I I I try to be fair and give myself credit when it’s due and I’m obviously uh not afraid to admit what I’m wrong I was correct last week I did not want any part of Fitzpatrick he missed the cut same thing with Larry this week Larry is much better when it’s
Difficult the American Express is not difficult Shane Larry is much better when it’s windy we saw the wind forecast there is literal zero wind throughout the entirety of the of the tournament at least in the forecast this does not feel like a Shane Larry conditioned type event this
Week so even though he is 17th I don’t think I’m G to use Shane Lowry it just doesn’t feel good for him this week SEIU I mean okay he wins a couple years ago here but like I mentioned last week at the Sony where he was the defending
Champ you know he tends to struggle going low when it’s easy so um take that for what you will he’s been good off the tea especially on these shorter courses the Putter’s not awful I just kind of just lukewarm on seaw I surprised Cam Davis raided out as
Well as he did so I’m going to be using a whole lot of Cam Davis the chalky play in the akks is Taylor Montgomery as you can see here and gab’s Source has him as the second highest projected owned player in the T or in the eights behind Eric Cole which you could
Expect Taylor Montgomery played extremely well here last year I think he’s going to play well too I mentioned I mentioned him last week at the Sony number four on poetry Alis he loves he’s just a very good putter in general he likes the surface and he loves it
When it’s easy so don’t ignore Taylor Montgomery but I’m going to go back on the bandwagon I mentioned how I was I was a little lukewarm on Adam hadwin last week he was 10th in my rankings and I didn’t know how I felt about it I feel much
More confident with Adam hadwin this week look you see the course value it’s very very good this is another one of those players that loves Desert Golf top 10 when it’s easy as well now he will have to be a lot better A lot better at these short par fives but it hasn’t
Prevented him from playing extremely well here in the past top 10 on poetry Alice hits plenty of greens especially when it’s short or on short courses and he’s a very good par three player which is very important here at the American Express I’m going to be using quite a
Bit of Adam hadwin if he does not play well I will lose the only other thing I’ll say in the 8ks I said it with Wills Horus and Gary Woodland and Johnny Vegas and Adrien damont I’ll say it with Burger look I will be laid on him just show me that you’re
Healthy I I if if I lose because of it I accept that I just want to see you be healthy for a little bit of an extended period of time before I before I jump back into using him so I’ll just lose and I accept that
That but what metrics he does have very very good and he’s always played well here as well he’s played well here as well top five in poetry Alice putting it’s plenty of greens like he he should if he were 100% healthy he would be a very strong play I just don’t know where
The health is moving into the upper sevens I was all in on Alex noren last week he was a very disappointing middling finish he was after Friday I think he was inside the top 20 kind of lurking he had a chance um and then just kind of stumbled through the
Weekend um when I say stumbled you know you should only shot like three or four under as opposed to 36 under whatever people were doing last weekend the metrics say he’s going to be very good again here I’m not nearly as confident this week on noring as I was last
Week a lot of the reason is is the off the tea I’ve got much more um off the tea Centric mixed condition model this week and he’s not been good at these short par fives he generally takes advantage of the longer ones because of his good wedge play
So little bit of concerns there still a very good putter on poet trivialis hits plenty of greens like you have enough to go on Alex noron if you want to I’m just not nearly as confident I’m sure I’ll have him he’s ninth in my rankings after
All but in the upper sevens I’m actually leaning more towards Taylor pendri pendrith is you know at eight and a half per Gabe source so right at the same same area 8.6 8.4 um for as much as we’ve talked about the putter on a few of these players I’m
Not worried about it with Taylor pendri because these greens are supposedly really easy to to putt on he’ll hit plenty of greens he’s also really good in sand he’s really good with his with the sand play top 20 off the te a lot to like here with Taylor pendrith so that’s
Where I’ve been gravitating in the upper sevens I might sneak Wills out Taurus in a lineup only because he got a lot of that rust off at the Sony and he’s generally played the MX well but I’m still not in love with it I still want to see some
Some uh week week after week Health some long long-term Health from zator I might sneak him in a lineup um even though he rid it out well I don’t want any part of Keith Mitchell again this is a very very easy tournament this is not M Keith Mitchell does not play easy
Well he’s better when it’s difficult so I just I just want no part of Mitchell moving into the mid sevens uh couple here I was really really surprised and I I didn’t get a chance to talk about it cuz I was dying essentially But Eric Van royan was sixth
In my rankings uh seventh by the pure numbers at Fantasy National he really only has one bad statistic now the irons are mediocre but he devours these par short par fives which is what helped him um win down at the myoba at L cardal been very good off the te on
Short courses he’s a good putter at least on Tri poet trivialis there’s a lot to like here just I personally just don’t I can’t get excited about an AR van royan and seeing him at you know 12% here per fantasy National you know closer to 10%
On Gabe Source he is getting some love so it’s not going to be as unique as you think um let’s see that’s kind of well I I’ll I’ll consider 74 in the mid mid Sevens at this point I guess I really like Ben Griffin again this week I I touted him
Fairly heavily last week that turned out to be okay think you tied for 30th maybe um so it was okay um but he’s a very good putter on poet trivialis as well he’s just going to have to be much better with um with the uh with the irons and finding the
Greens awaken thanks for jumping in chat uh I think you have caught uh well I you know what I’m not even going to say anything cuz I I said something to pee earlier and then I had 20 minutes of of death uh it’s good to see you I haven’t
Seen you this uh this uh calendar year yet so hopefully things have went well you are ready to kick off 2024 with a bang um it’s good to see you how are you feeling about the MX this week um so I do want to highlight Ben
Griffin freewall in the mid sevs I think he’ll be he’ll be pretty good this week and then moving into the low sevens I’ve been there’s a lot in here that I like a lot in here that I like a lot with the 9k so that probably tells you the kind
Of lineups I’ve been building but in the low sevens I mean there’s no shortage of people I want to highlight 10th in my rankings Alex SMY look um he’s going to have to be much like Adam hadwin much better on these short par fives but top five in
Irons top 20 Fighters are better when it’s easy he has played the AMX extremely well and again I will reemphasize everything that I have read has said that these greens are not difficult to putt so the fact that he is not a good putter shouldn’t hurt him as
Bad he’ll hit plenty of greens good enough with the par 3s I really like Alex SMY this week I really like bazen Hood as well uh for as much as I’ve got an off the tea kind of centric and ball striking Centric mixed condition model he’s just played well here simply as
That um it’s just played generally pretty well doesn’t go the lowest he’s more of a grinder he’s a short game player so a Putter and and short game you kind of want to think about that when it’s difficult but irons are getting better as I mentioned short game player
He just putts very very well especially on this surface sand saves very good I like was new I like SMY more but I do like wasen hoot I want to highlight mty Schmid for you at 7200 finished sixth last year it’s all about the par fives all about the par fives for mty
Schmid third in the 500 to 550 power fives also top 25 off the te which probably helps with that category as well um he will have to be a lot better with the par 3s but I am I’m going with the par five uh narrative on Matty Schmid so I like him a
Lot I I think people are getting introduced to Matthew Pavone very very talented player from France who is now on the uh PJ tour thanks to uh the DP World Tour exceptions or whatever um they’re getting introduced to him um worth a look he’s never played here obviously so you don’t know if
He’ll like he he’ll take to the course but a talented enough player look I talk about it all the time if a course is easy it’s just just think about Ryan Palmer I’m not even saying to using but just think about it loves easy courses destroys easy
Courses top 25 Bird’s a better gain he plays very well on these shorter par fives now the putter could be bad I’ll give you that so definitely have to would have to Shore that up but this is all based on the easy and how how easy the MX always is that you want
To take a pretty decent look at Ryan Palmer at 71 all right normally I try to give you all some 6K plays um look no one in the community seems to be going in oh sorry there is there is one more low set it’s Patton
Gazy uh he is getting some love at 9% but um you know decent uh with these first two metrics here very good putter on poet trivialis so also take a look at Paton gazy now in the six I try to always give you all some some 6K plays the mad scientist
Plays if you will um not at least not in fantasy National no one seems to be coming down into the 6ks and per gabes Source the highest uh projected ownership I see is it’s like 42% doesn’t feel like many of our fellow contestants are coming down into the
6ks so if you find somebody that you like sure I’m G tell you I don’t I there’s I will give you one name just to give you a name but I I I do not like the 6ks this week and that’s saying something for me because I’m I’m a mad
Scientist I really like coming down in here and finding a lot of uniqueness one name I want to give you all at 60 200 I thought maybe it’s 63 it is 63 it’s Kevin U and a lot of this has to do with the fact that I seem to be
Different from a lot of others in the industry this week and that I’m I have some off the tea but look he is the number one player in this field with all the Elite Talent that’s here kley Xander Sheffer he is the number one player on
These short par fives he is also the second best off the tea player on short courses the putter is not an abject failure on poet trivialis at least it hasn’t been now he’s got a lot of horrendous staff like the part 3es are a terrible terrible thing sand saves are are
Atrocious like he’s got a lot of oh gosh that’s horrendous looking stuff but if you’re going to get greedy if you want to try to fit a sheffler or if you want to try to do a Xander sunj Xander Klay Xander uh Tom Kim you might want to think about a Kevin U
To try to squeeze all of that greed up top that’s the only way I would do it I still don’t love it but I do want to give you all a name in the six case is simawa a real player I believe so it
Might take a while for him to show it I mean yes he had a very good Sony Open don’t get me wrong um but I think he’ll just pop every now and then in until he’s you know more of a regular on the PJ tour but from what I understand and I
Don’t keep up with foreign tours from what I understand he has had a lot of he he’s in a he’s in very good form right now um coming over here so at least right now yes he is a real player I would say um but good question I that’s just
Something that I don’t I don’t um partake in trying to gather All Foreign Tour player stats that would just that would even make my head explode all right so there’s a look at the price board how I see you know the Fades and the pivots uh where our fellow
Contestants seem to be gravitating let’s start making some lineups we’re going to start with players or for those who play tiers contests and then move to Classic and our gpp lineups any love Vegas in the 6ks it’s the same thing with Wills out Taurus and Woodland and
Burger show me prolonged Health like he missed the cut last week he probably rided out a little bit higher for me because of the off the te and the emphasis on ball striking uh do you know what his price is by chance oh there he is right there um like he
Hasn’t particularly played this course well yeah I do like the I mean you like to see the number two in these short par fives again it this is this is more so just show me health I am more willing to be late on this type of player because I just don’t know where
His health is coming back from injury like assumingly he’s he’s the Assumption he’s 100% healthy because he’s playing but we’ve seen that enough times where that’s just not always the case so it’s it’s going to have to be a fade for me p on Vegas but that’s only because it’s
Just a hard stance I’m taking on those types of players right now cuz there’s so many of them burger and Woodland and zalatoris and Vegas I actually kind of throw damont in there because he’s getting a lot of hype but I just want to see how
He plays before I make any you know conjectures about whether he likes short courses easy long all that stuff all right for those who play tiers contests in tier one we have Scotty Sheffer Xander and Patrick kley the safe play the chalki play is going to be Patrick
Kley think I’m going to take Xander it’s tough it’s pretty it’s pretty close for me between Xander and Klay I think Sheffer is a clear third I’ll take Xander if you’re not overly concerned with the amount of ownership that kley potentially brings with him kentley’s probably the safer safer play just cuz
He he’s played so darn well here every time he plays here but I will go Xander try to squeeze in a little bit of uniqueness from tier one tier two sunjay Tom Kim Justin Thomas Jason day and Sam Burns well don’t really want anything to do with Justin
Thomas Tom Kim kind of the same so you’re kind of between sunjay Jay day and Sam Burns now these two are going to be much more unique in tier 2 sunjay sunjay is like the kly play uh I do not think it’s wise to go Klay and sunjay in a tears contest cuz
That’s is going to be matching I’m going to be I’m going to OV exaggerate this but that’s that’s probably matching 40% of your tiar contest right there in those two players I don’t think there’s a problem with taking one of the two I wouldn’t take them both in the same
Lineup because we took Xander I am much more tempted to take sunj in tier two so I’m going to go I’m going to go sunj in tier two I’ll go Burns second and J day third in a tiers contest and and it’s a lot of pressure to per
Put Burns to have to perform with that putter he’s such a good enough putter I think he’s going to be able to handle it but I will go sunj in tier two tier three MW Le Tony feno Ricky fer JT Poston winam Clark JT poston’s going to be the old
Overwhelmingly chalky play like sunj in the last tier uh if you went Sam Burns or J day you are going to be able to take JT Poston because we took sunjay that’s just that’s it’s out of the question you’re going to be way too popular so now you’re you’re choosing
Between Ricky Tony and minwoo Mino is a true wild card I think he’s going to play okay but he’s a true wild card I don’t know how willing him to do that in a tears contest so now I’m talking between Tony fenale and Ricky Fowler I think I’m going to take Tony
Fen now actually uh I just believe that you know him historically having gained Strokes on these greens means a lot uh cuz he’s not a very good putter uh you see he’s played this event you know well in the two or three times he’s played it so I’ll take Fen now in tier
Three tier four yeah you can just see that tier four Chris Kirk Eric Cole Shane Lowry seu Kim Cam Davis Adam hadwin Taylor Mony lots of good options in tier four lots of good options Eric Cole obvious he’s going to be very chalky but good option actually don’t
Like Shane Lowry for the reasons I talked about in classic or when we went through the price board Excuse Me Cam Davis a little surprised he rate it out so well I think I’m going to go with Adam hadwin just because of the the quote safety or the comfort with desert
Golf but I think Cam Davis is is a reasonable uh decision tlor Montgomery is very reasonable Eric Cole’s I mean like I said all of these are very good but I’m going to go with Adam hadwin number one I’ll go I’ll go Cam Davis second just just for some more
Uniqueness I’ll go Eric Cole third Taylor Montgomery fourth and I and I like Taylor Montgomery especially in in tears but tier four to me is just loaded all right tier five uh scroll up all right OA batia Daniel Burger Andrew putam Stephan joerger Wills Al Torus Alex noren Bo
Hustler to me this is a two person tier only because I’m just not considering burger for the same reasons I talked about Johnny Vegas a little bit ago I just want to see prolonged health so for me it’s between Andrew putam and Alex noren the metrics say to take
Norin Andrew putam has played so very well here despite the fact I have off the tea as prevalent as I do or the ball striking as prevalent as I do in this mixed condition model him still being you know fairly high in these rankings I’m thinking I’ll probably take
Andrew putam because I’m just not as confident as I was last week on Alex noren if you aren’t scared about that you know the metrics say Alex noren should be really good but give me Andrew putam in tier five finally tier six chessen Hadley do one more chessen
Hadley Michael Kim Ryan Palmer Ben Kohl’s Grayson Murray Doug gim and Sh Kim I think that’s all of them yeah uh for me it’s pretty easy Choice I’ll take Ryan Palmer just because I I believe in his easy course performance historically so I I’ll I’ll take Ryan
Palmer to it’s not particularly close so this tier’s construction gosh dang it This Ti deer’s construction goes Xander sunj uh where did we go here I believe we went Tony F now tier four we went hadwin tier five was putam tier six and Ryan Palmer all right let’s make some classic
Lineups figure out the lineups that most of our fellow contestants seem to be making how we can maneuver around that so if we’re going to be trying to duplicate duplicate these very chalky lineups we’re going to have to start with a couple of the most obvious plays here uh
I’m going to use Patrick kley it’s only very recently before the stream that he dropped below 20% uh I still think he’s going to be hovering in that 20 to 23% range when lineups lock tomorrow it’s going to go Patrick kley and then goes down to JT
Poston um just look the at least per fantasy National you know our fellow contestants are bottoming out maybe Patton gazy at 9% Sam Ryder 11 and a half so let’s go ahead and do Sam Ryder down here doesn’t leave them much in the middle to work with um Taylor Montgomery is a distinct
Possibility at 81 um maybe a a little bit less so Stephan joerger but uh let’s try Taylor Montgomery not sure if we’re going to be a yeah we should be able to do this excuse me so you know we have 7,400 per player Eric Van royan getting getting some some attention 11 a
Half% and then that that would round out this lineup 73 no one’s getting a you know a ton of attention at at 73 it’d be Alex SMY so I’ll have to throw him in there it’s you know it’s it’s not it’s not great it’s probably a little bit
More um someone a little bit more chalky or maybe they move maybe they move off of kle to sunj that would free up you know a whole lot of money for them where they could go uh Eric Vin royan here and try like Stephan joerger 15% uh matching in your big gpps this
This looks like a pretty darn um common lineup construction or shell if you will uh you know move it around a little bit sunj Poston maybe it’s kley Cole that could be another option Taylor Montgomery Sam Ryder van royan in your mid to low sevens very very
Um rare do I think you’re going to see any any stars and scrubs just because at least per fantasy National and per Gabe Source like nobody’s coming down into the sixks at all you got Ryan Moore here at 5% um you know per Gabe Source over on
My other other screen like 4 and 1/2% I just don’t see stars and scrubs getting played we can try and build a a an a super balanced build if you will and we can try starting it at at say J JT Poston Eric Cole come on down to
Um batia I guess getting some love this would be Taylor Montgomery um yes I mean 79 per Andrew putam and dang it uh dang Jagger is 100 too much so you know we’ll throw van royan in this that leaves them 300 on the table if we put Jagger in this just understand
It’s going to be 100 over so they might come off of one of these guys or you know go down a little bit further but you know there’s another 15% matching lineup in this Ultra Balan build that’s probably going to be somewhat popular as well so how are we
Going to maneuver around that well the contrarian way to do that is going to be stars and scrubs and I I gave you the one name in the 6ks that I don’t hate is Kevin U but I I I’m not going to be doing this more than once uh as just there’s
Nothing in the 6ks that I really really like but if you want to do this this is this is one way you could probably get pretty unique um I will use no let’s let’s throw Xander into this so we’ll go Xander and can’t lay but you see already we’re into the
Low sevens just with those two players and we’re still not really saving a whole lot of ownership among those two players instead you’d probably want to do something like Xander maybe come down into the mid NS maybe for like a Sam Burns if you want to get unique off of
JT Poston go Sam Burns uh Adam hadwin somebody that I even though he’s you know in this middle middle portion of the ownership um Range you know he fits in a nice price I’m very confident in his or what his performance is going to be this week uh and we still have
7600 that you can you can find some uniqueness around here uh you know maybe you’re not scared of a Daniel burer you can throw him in or Wills Al Taurus I’m going to come down a little bit little bit lower pendrith at 78 if I could spell what did I do oh Taylor
Pth there we go uh which leaves a 73 um you know pick who you like in this area SMY Baden hoot uh Sam R probably going to be a little bit too too chalky but M Schmid can even come down a little bit further I’ll uh I’ll throw bazan dude into
This and there’s your 50,000 under 10% you’re probably looking at a unique lineup thanks to Kevin you but even so even if you’re duplicated it’s not going to be very often uh Taylor pendrith has the potential to go low with anybody Adam Haven loves Desert Golf if anytime you’re in a putting contest
You’re going to tell me Sam burns doesn’t have a chance like this is this is a lineup that that would I think would would Garner a lot of attention um come Sunday but the way I’ve been going about this I’ve been doing and this is a build that I’ve done
In the past uh on the show I know I call it the triple triple um it’s a stars and scrubs variation where I go three n and 37 um three n and then and and I’m only able to do this cuz I like so many in
The 9ks like I said Jason day I don’t mind at all M Lee Sam Burns Tony fenel Ricky Fowler who’s 12th in my rankings at sub 5% I think he’s going to play pretty darn well all of these players are very good pivots off of a very chalky JT Poston
And poston’s a very good play don’t get me wrong we could even throw poson into this if we wanted to but I’m doing this this triple triple 9 Triple 7 I’ll I’ll start with minwoo and then of course Sam Burns I really like with the the putting
Contest um Ricky or Tony choose who you want I’m going to go Ricky on this one it could very easily be Tony F now but this is another reason why I have really been gravitating towards these lineups because you can Mi mix and match with the 9ks that you like you know maybe
You’re a little bit higher on Tom Kim than I am so you can go go like a Tom Kim minwoo Fowler and then if you play another lineup you could do like a Tom Kim Burns fenale um and then come down and do a day fenale Fowler there’s just so many
Options here in the 9ks and then you see we still have this same magical kind of 7300 number to Round out this this uh lineup we have so many options in between 74 and and 7 7,000 uh Ben Griffin at 74 Alex SMY bazen Hood At 73 love mty
Schmidt at 72 I mentioned Ryan Palmer at 71 Pat Gaz at 7,000 so I’m defin definitely throwing uh Ben Griffin into this I really like his um what I see from him as a course fit um love Alex SMY this week um I don’t know he might have he might have
We can actually we can check that um but um I just he Adam Hain just loves Desert Golf um to round out this team Matty Schmid look this is a this a stars and scrubs variation you’re not even approaching 9% in terms of projected ownership sorry let me get that to to focus
Although with that blurring that’s about how I feel um but anyway there’s a there’s there here’s the lineup or the shell of a lineup the the concept of a lineup that I’ve really really been hammering this week and just mixing and matching all the players in
The 9ks and the 7ks that I like that’s not to say that I can’t come down to an Eric coal or a JT Poston every once in a while cuz I can you can see I’ve got plenty of money to to to do that with if
I if I take out a Ricky or if I take out a Sam Burns you know that’s freeing up quite a bit of money or if I want to you know come up from Ben Griffin go up to a Taylor pendri or an Alex Soren maybe even try to squeeze in that
Adam hadwin that you mentioned awaken you know it’d be a little bit harder to do with a triple 9 you’d probably have to do it with a with like an Eric Cole so let’s try let’s try doing one more real quick this will be Eric Cole Adam
Hadwin um I’m going to throw Ryan pal into this again just he loves playing when it’s easy um I used Matty Schmidt I used Alex SMY let’s throw um yeah I’m just I’m just really high on Al SMY this week so I’ll use him I mean this is this 9250
Per like we could actually come down into like uh JT po putting JT post into this might be a touch too too too uh too popular um but you could go oh o here’s here’s another option Eric Cole throwing in Cam Davis into this and now you got sunj that’s an interesting that’s
Another interesting lineup little variation um I can’t call it the triple 9 and Triple 7 anymore but you know if you if you’re more into the 8ks that’s an option for you those are the kinds of lineups that I’ve been building I’ve been I will definitely be using a little bit of
Probably these three in my lineups um I’m just I’m very confident in Xander sj’s played so extremely well here cley’s played so extremely well here but for me to gain the uniqueness that I’m wanting to gain I’ve been I’ve been living in this area right here and just mixing and matching
Throughout all most of my lineups but that’s going like jday Burns Fowler jday minwu Lee Eric Cole um and then moving my way on down the uh the price board that’s what I have for everybody um I can stick around for a minute or two I’ve been going on for quite a while
And awaken you were fortunate that you um you missed it but P had to suffer through the 20 minutes of of me seemingly going to die with a coughing fit so I apologize for all that in the middle of the show um I want to see we
Have a couple of votes one for J day one for Tony fenale again if you if you’re watching live would love to get your feedback on the poll question uh who are you most confident in that is quote sub 10% I had to fudge it a little bit to get four players in
There but um want to thank p and awaken for jumping in chat it was good to see you both um haven’t seen you uh much uh the beginning of this calendar year so uh hopefully we’re going to get your all’s year started off uh well mine has
Started off pretty darn well I hit sep Str a top European at Century Russell Henley was my number one player last week would have got me a whole lot of money had uh had he not had that very late bogey but I used even one and done
Uh set me up for a good week of su success there which Speaking of I need to mention one and done I’m torn between sunj and Adam hadwin my initial gut feeling was to go Adam hadwin for some uniqueness and I think that’s where I’m leaning but I I I’m reserving my right
To change that but right now my oneand done selection I’m waffling between Adam hadwin and sunjay um uh good stuff loving the field this week yeah this is a great field for the for the American Express it’s a great field so thanks to you two for jumping in chat thanks to everyone else
Out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it and putting up with me through weeks where I feel like crap uh and come on here and and cough all over the place so I apologize for that
But love what I do trying to um you know taking an in-depth look at sports statistics uh mainly Golf and baseball statistics trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process so for all of the Wagers that You’ have made this week for the American Express
For all the DFS contests you play this week for the American Express for this weekend and every weekend May our your bets be profitable
