The American Express + Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 288 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s The American Express and Hero Dubai Desert Classic.
#theamericanexpress #theamexgolf #LaQuinta #StadiumCourse #dubaidesertclassic

We talk 2024 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365 – entry details and comp rules are here: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/golf-majors-competition-2024-rules/

The American Express + Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:30 Intro
01:41 Listener Reviews
04:43 bet365 Sponsored 2024 Majors Competition
07:29 Last Week
15:24 American Express Start
44:11 Dubai Desert Classic Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s American Express Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/pga-tour-tips/the-american-express-tips-2024/

The American Express Strokes Gained Rankings: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/amex-sg-analysis-2024/

The American Express Form Stats: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/amex-combi-stats-2024/

Paul’s Dubai Desert Classic Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/dubai-desert-classic-tips-2024/

Dubai Desert Classic Strokes Gained Rankings:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/ddc-sg-analysis-2024/

Dubai Desert Classic Form Stats: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/ddc-combi-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V
Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651
Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

If you like betting on golf but everyone that you back Miss is the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf betting system the golf betting system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf bating system podcast it’s episode 288 this our 2024 the American Express and hero Dubai Desert Classic bets pod

Barry o hanran and Paul Williams join me Steve bford to discuss our selection for this week’s PJ and DP World Tour action good morning Jens morning guys morning guys please subscribe to this podcast as you drive the popularity of the show this podcast is for listeners of 18 and

Above please be gambl you can visit bam.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events we’ve got Strokes gained rankings for both course form stats combined with current form stats plus of

Course our two predictor models all of that content is available can you believe it it’s completely free of charge there is no payall on x you can follow follow Barry at a good talk golf I’m at Paul’s at golf betting and I am at banford golf right now you guys as listeners

Power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcast as ever for those of you who leave a review I will read them out at the start of a future show leave your name and where you are in the review okay five stars from The Lone Star State

Is our review this week greetings from Houston Texas I absolutely love this show it informs me tremendously each week as I make my single DFS lineup I know this is a betting show but I’ve decided this year to start the coure of my lineup with the half dozen or so

Names discussed by these three rather smart fellows and then I go off a bit from there to make it my own I also find their website to be quite useful and I’m glad it’s all free now if only I could make some eight places each way punts

From Texas it’s not legal just yet in Brackets then I’d really be having a blast thanks for all the chat and the nice music each Tuesday keep up the great work and that is from Brandon Brandon from Houston Texas thank you very much brilliant stuff thank you

Brandon and uh best of luck with your single Dart entry this week let’s hope it’s a let’s hope it’s a win winner nice Brandon thank you very much uh I wish I could play some DFS DraftKings is uh blocked here in Ireland and it uh it’s probably saving me money but I’m having

Less fun each week so I don’t know how’d you balance that out yeah listen shame for you guys over in Ireland actually that you can’t play that anymore but uh these things change don’t they it’s surprising in such a gamly country that somebody didn’t figure out how to pick it up

But oh well y we’ve got so much to talk about but what I’m going to do before we start venting Barry is to just mention that is our last five-star review in the uh in our store can you please send us some five-star reviews for next week if

You’re right one you’re going to be on the Pod next week it’s as simple as that also I keep mentioning Spotify we are so close we are on 4955 stars on Spotify so if you’re listening to this podcast on Spotify and haven’t given us a five-star review all

You need to do go to the podcast Department page you see three little dots press the three dots it then gives you the option to rate the podcast press just press five stars job done that’ be absolutely marvelous if you’re listening to this also on YouTube our channel is very very close I

Mean within 10 of 4,000 Subs so please subscribe to the channel if you’re listening into this on YouTube I know that 20% of you are right okay Paul can you just talk the listeners through our bet 365 20 uh sponsored 2024 Majors competition very quickly for me please yes um I guess you

Guys who’ve been listening to the Pod for a few years or last year at least um we’ll be of with this we run a yearly uh major competition we ask you to pick four four players four different players one for the Masters one for the PGA

Championship one for the US Open and one for the Open Championship and submit those four entries to us um via Facebook there’s a thread on our Facebook group via um email um or via X Twitter um and let us know who you um select for those four major championships now what we do

Is we create a mini leaderboard of those um players or those entries and allocate the dollar earnings for that player against each of the major that you’ve selected him for um and then at the end of the season at the end of the Open Championship we uh we declare some

Winners the winner um gets courtesy of bet 365 as Steve said £ 150 or currency equivalent as a top prize 75 to the second place 25 to the third place finisher so essentially four players one and done in that respect and uh depending how well they do um depends how well you score

Now you need to get the entries in before the first tea time at the Masters um so I’m sure Steve will add a uh a link to the rules and how to enter in the podcast description if not pop along to X pop along to Facebook um and all

The details are on there as well but always good fun um we get hundreds and hundreds of entries so um it’s it’s always interesting to read some of the uh some of thoughts and opinions and selections from you guys but uh yeah get involved please that’s one of your fa favorite

Jobs of the Year isn’t it Paul sending off the winning winning cash lots to the three winners I I I do enjoy that bit yeah it’s slightly better than collating all the answers which um which which takes you about three working months why don’t you set up a Google form yeah

Bar that’d be far too easy got to be smart wouldn’t it dangerous sorry apologies no I I I really I I thrive on reading the entries and trying to decipher if it’s Sheffer or chaff that someone’s written these people that try and use Tech to make your life easier Paul it’s

So frustrating I’m I’m expecting hundreds of AI entries this year two two analoges here and me me trying to be digital let’s really piss Barry off come on talk about Sunday night Barry I we we’re talking here listeners Sony Open three players in the playoff I had 55 to one shot Keegan

Bradley who only hit one of seven Fairways on the back nine and crucially didn’t hit the Fairway on 18 to make the easiest Birdie on the course to to win the tournament so he goes into a playoff at 55 to1 and Barry who did you have in the

Playoff my rage started on Sunday morning actually I woke up woke up nice and early and decided to have a little bet on the DP World Tour because my picks for the week all finished uh below that guy Ken we and I think they were that

Bad so there was no fun in backing Rory or Tommy but Tristan Lawrence has been playing some cracking golf the last uh number of months so I said R he was 34 in the exchange so put a little few Euro on him off I went to play golf and uh

Was watching the finish it on my phone on the course and watching Tommy make his birdies and just throw a dagger through the heart so missing out on the playoff by by that happening I like Tommy but I want Rory to you know win if my bets don’t win so that was just

A we can get into that then a little bit later but yeah it went on to like Sunday night then more disappointment had been unbacked um and what price did you have on Ben on bar uh 40 40 40 to one 40 to1 yeah thanks that really helps the 35 or

40s I can’t remember trying to block it out anyway he Ben was me fourth the week before um he was striping it last week where was he third off the tea 33rd approach 12th around the green 23rd in Pudding he was good uh but the yeah missed that four-footer in the playoff

To to extend it it was um kind of hurt sucked the thing really interesting thing I couldn’t I couldn’t figure out the the rationale behind Murray and Bradley were both lashing at the ball off the 18th te when it seemed like just a reasonably solid one would be would

Either maybe get around the corner a little bit or if they hit it pretty much dead straight it might not run through the Fairway so even if they were another 10 yards back they weren’t in that rough spot that Henley and and Bradley both got into so it didn’t seem to make sense

That they were both like trying to like knock the cover off the ball but you know they’re playing pro golf and I’m not so uh maybe my question is completely invalid um yeah I I don’t know so what we’re saying Barry is you had a 40 to1

Player in a three-man playoff I had a 55 to1 player in a three-man playoff and the 400 to1 chance actually won yeah made a 37 38f footer just a really wind you you should have SE I mean and the bunker shots actually to be fair to Grayson Murray

Like he wasn’t playing good golf throughout the day he was just hanging on didn’t make any Bogies I think if I remember correctly and like three just Sensational bunker up and downs that I remember on the B like lat on in the round played some really good golf got a

Bit lucky that’s it’s a pretty lethal combination for uh winning a golf tournament y really counts he now is in the world’s top 50 don’t ask me how but this is how the world rankings now now work he’s now in the world’s top 50 and of course he

Will be playing at Augusta it’s amazing how this game changes a player’s career within a 4day span this all goes back this is all Rory’s H fault this a little bit of a butterfly flapping its wings moment when Rory told R in in the player meeting just play better yeah and I

Think since then he won on the kft might I’m not sure whether it was before or after that win on the kft in October but let’s say it was before he’s just like he gave Grayson the uh the fire to go and do it he did that was that was at

The event in Toronto at Jeff feinberg’s Golf Club it was at that meeting where it was all going horribly wrong they had a stand up R didn’t they yeah so it was before the win in October then so he did he stoked the fire yeah he had been yeah me is it

Clearly resurrected his career at the corn Fair he did level didn’t he winning a couple of tournaments towards the end of the year and he’s taken that forward so he needs to send Rory a very very uh nice present he’s a two-time winner now on

The PJ to are both on Bermuda grass and there’s plenty of players that we could mention that haven’t got a single Victory on the pj2 yet so you can’t ever go at Grayson Murray like what happened at let let’s quickly move forward we’ve got such a packed show uh the Dubai

Invitational what what crazy finish happened there yeah yeah it was if if you weren’t financially invested it was it was a great watch towards the end um I to be fair I wasn’t financially invested at that point because Rasmus and Adrian ATU i’ backed and had been my best chances

Both kind of huffed and puffed and we nowhere near close enough in the end but ultimately Roy should have won that if you go back um he made a quad on Friday wasn’t it on the par three hit the water twice and made a threep from absolutely

Nowhere on the back nine on Sunday um he’s looking at 3 feet or less for Birdie on the par three and ends up three ping it and then then finds water on the last and meanwhile Tommy’s just holding everything on the last couple of holes and yeah Barry I can you know see

Why you went for for for thristan Lawrence there was you know a great opportunity there for for him to be the one who who kind of pushed through and won that but but ultimately um ultimately it was Tommy and we talked about Tommy last week didn’t we he’d

Flown directly over from Hawaii he was the only player in the field who’d played the previous week so I guess you could argue that he’d shaken the rust off but um you know he didn’t exactly set the world a light over at the uh over at the century would he finished

Mid 40s something like that down the field um you know horribly short price last week in Dubai and and goes and wins it so I’d imagine there weren’t that many punters on Tommy but if there were any brave enough to take the price and and get the win then then well done

To you all to to see Rory missing I mean he he he did a Ben on on three part didn’t he and and then he he lashes it in the water on 18 yeah m should have won I me yeah you look at the final result and that goes

Down as a Tommy win and undoubtedly Rory will be the the disappointed party there because it wouldn’t have taken much for him to win that but uh those are the uh those are the vagaries of golf at the kind of business end of the uh the tournament and we saw both of them

Someone goes and makes a couple of you know the p on 17 from Tommy was great and then then followed it up in 18 and yeah hats off to him just to include the venting I have never had a winner at the Sony Open never Keegan Bradley now joins a

List that includes Tim Clark at 33 to1 Branch schneer at 28 to1 and Andrew putam at 80 to1 those are my selections that are finished runner up at the Sony Open four runners up no winners fifth time lucky next year Ste it’s all good stuff uh two cracking events this week I

Never used to say that about the Bob H hope classic but is now getting a stronger and stronger field the American Express to those of you who are relatively new to golf betting this is for old stages like us the Bob Hope classic used to be played over five

Events and four courses it was an absolute Lottery it must have been a lottery because players like Charlie Hoffman used to win this um they’ve now pulled it back it’s now three courses the stadium course which is a Pete die design um that hosts the uh one of the

Opening three rounds and the final round we also got the tournament course which is Jack Nicholas design and laint Country Club those two t courses host one of the four rounds um I’m not really going to get into too much detail about the courses they are crazily

Easy last year these courses ranked as the second third and fourth easiest golf courses on the whole of the PJ to and from what I’ve seen the weather is going to be warmer and less windy this year lights out Astrodome type golf this week could see 30 under win in this yep

Yeah I really could see 30 under winning this so that’s where we are at in terms of book maker of the week for the 2024 American Express we’re highlighting William Hill this week they’ve gone eight places each way of 50 odds the place on their AMX default Market I’ve

Used their eight places each way at 50 odds Market on four of my six selections that was yesterday on Monday right now as we record the Pod they are offering extended Market best odds and eight places each way on players like Tom Kim 25 to1 seu Kim 40 to1 he’s only 35 to1

With Sky Chris Kirk who I found amazing is 40 to Chris Kirk in in this current vame of form he was third here last year 33 to1 only with Sky Bet on Chris Kirk he’s 40 to1 with William Hill and how about I tell you is a player that keeps

Catching my eye recently Austin ekro is absolutely making bundles of birdies 125 to1 with William Hill eight places each way he’s only 100 to one currently with Paddy Power if you are 18 plus and do not have a William Hill account you can find details of their

Current bet10 get30 in free bets new customer promotion plus a link through to that very offer with te’s and C’s in this podcast description I must say I was very very pleased with William Hills prices yesterday when they came out they they upped their they certainly upped their uh their prices and their

Proposition this week at the American Express um I’ve got six selections this week chaps and this is the kind of event I know that you two aren’t going to go overly heavy on but I love to try and find the winner in something like this

So I’ve got six six at this total and utter birdie Fest um let’s just give the a little bit more background as to what pters might be looking for this week it’s very much feast or famine in terms of the kind of player that wins this um we’ve got John Ram winning this

Last year I believe he was I think he was um 15-2 or 13 to2 13 to2 13 to two favorite year before that Hudson Swafford 175 to1 year before that se wo Kim 66 to1 I can I can people are licking their lips I can as they’re

Listening to this Andrew Landry 200 to one shot Adam long before that a rookie 600 to one and then of course 2018 you get John Ram 10 to one so Ram’s won it twice now he’s off to live 10 to1 and 13-2 you’ve then add a 66 175 200 and 600 to One

Winner if you if you total all that up run it through it’s a 210 to one winning average of this and the overall average going way back to Bill H in 2010 he won at 100 to one is 131 to one so we could end up with a very weird

And wacky winner however there is some hope in there clearly John Ram twice sewo Kim 66 to1 Hudson Swafford 66 to1 Jason duffner 40 to1 there is some hope that someone with a little bit of logic can be found this week to win this and

It’s a very good field I have to say it’s loaded with some of the best players in the world probably the best field that I’ve seen gather for this you can see that this Con you know this constricted schedule now is forcing more of the best players to more generic non signature event

Tournaments early on in the year because they’re having to get their reps in um on on events that they normally would have played at the fall last year so they’re to you know preload their schedule up front in 2024 with more events any other things of note there is also here some logic

Potentially um if we go back to Jason duffner since they’ve gone to this course rotation he was ninth at the Sony Open the previous week he was sixth after 54 hole so he was in the midst of the fight year after that hson swaer 13th at

The Sony Open he was in he was third after 54 holes before coming here and then winning this John Ram he was second at capala he was third after 54 holes and John Ram last year first at capala fifth after 54 holes at capala so there’s four of the last seven who have

Been in contention at their previous PGA tour start in the same year clearly sewo Kim and Hudson Swafford do not follow that pattern but it’s something to go off just going through this field and players that would fit that pattern so top six the outing before this year

Chris Kirk of course fourth last week at the Sony uh you’ve got Grayson Murray who won Sam Stevens who was third going into last week’s uh final round we’ve got Chris Kirk fourth pavon semi carwa Ben Silverman Austin eot was ninth Troy Meritt was ninth and then at kaaloa

We’ve got AE Bara we’ve got Xander who was third I so hope that Xander doesn’t win this and we’ve got Scotty Sheffer of course who was six with Jason day so there’s some names to peruse Scotty shefer of course is the usual 11 to2 favorite The Strokes gain data for this only is

For the host course so if you look at last year John Ram actually won this with a 1.1 stroke negative Strokes game putting performance but that is only across 36 of the 72 holes I still think in my mind you know I think if if you are putting

Negatively and can shoot 30 under this week that that’s a big doubt for me on Scotty Sheffer the other one of course you’ve got Xander and uh you’ve got Patrick Klay both at pretty much single digits odds um based on that kind of thing that we’ve just gone through Xander probably

Isn’t a bad shout and it would be typically Xander wouldn’t it to not win a tournament for 18 months and then roll up here and win this at 9 to one with barely anyone on him so I do fear that a a a Sheffer a cantlay or a x will win

This but that’s not my style so I I’ve gone for for bigger prices this way so within the madness there is some hope that something almost logical could happen but in all likelihood you might also get a 225 to One winner like we saw last week that you got no idea who’s

Coming that’s kind of where we’re at with the the American Express right I basically gone for players it’s very very simple what I’ve done this week and it seems to get kind of results I got a decent place last year with JT post and the year before that I had Tom

Hogi who finished second at 175 to1 so there there’s some method in my madness on this um this year I am going for JT Poston one and a half point Points each way at 30 to1 I’ve got that with Bo Sports eight places each way he’s playing phenomenal golf his ta

Green game is excellent we know with JT Poston is a very very strong Putter and we also know that his two pj2 victories he’s now in the top 40 in the world JT Poston on the quiet um he’s won at 22 and 21 under and those courses kind of correlate sedgfield for the

Windham championship and also the John Deere classic another one of the lights out tournaments that’s on B grass uh the Windom one of course on Bermuda grass he’s also got a very sneakily Good Pete die design record I won’t go through all the numbers but it’s all there in my

Preview there’s a link in the description box for me JT Poston at 30 to1 was a must back on one and a half points each way on Poston I two another player I really like the look of this week is Jason day one and a half points each way I got 33

To1 with William Hill eight places each way on Jason day and you just look at his record and how well he’s been playing and a very under the radar good Desert Golf Course record and of course as we said earlier he was sixth going into the final round

At caloa ended up finishing 10th at the century signature level tournament he won the Grant Thornton Invitational in December with his teammate Lydia Co he’s playing some very good golf at the moment Jason day and he broke his fiveyear win list streak on the PJ T

Last year when he won that drag strip of a birdie Fest the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch I believe he won that with a final round 62 or 63 on the Sunday so he can shoot very low scores C Jason D on the Cho and also three of his

Wins have come on Pete d Tracks Of course 2015 PJ Championship is one major that’s at Whistling Straits he won the 2016 WGC Dell match play at the tournament that Paul always used to cover at TPC um Austin and also he won the Players at Sor grass so three wins on Pete D

Designs for Jason day and the other one of that kind of price range I mean again 33 to1 one and a half points each way again with William Hill on this one eight places each why they got some cracking odds this week this one isn’t going to surprise anybody but if there’s

One player who has been trending seriously towards a win who can make bucket loads of birdies who is a fantastic Putter and last week the thing that really impressed me especially in in rounds three and rounds four was his driving which was pretty long and very

Straight which is has been his bug bear ever since he hit the main tour Eric Cole so I’ve gone one and a half points at 33 to1 on Eric Cole his numbers are just amazing last season first for total birdies sixth for birdie average and already this year he’s seventh for total

Birdies after two events just makes bucket fulls of birdies so at that 30 to 33 to1 range I’m on Poston Jason day and Eric Cole I’ve got no idea who of the players that you two got on so as ever Paul I’m coming to you first where where are you

Where are you sticking uh sticking your steak in the ground this year in terms of price at the MX so I’ve backed three this week um one at 20 um one that we’ve Shar well we we’ve got the same same player of 55s and I’m sure you can guess which one

That is of course um and then um one um just around the three figure level as well I’ll go I’ll take you through the the shorter one and then we can do the rest as we go through we know who this is going to be yeah go on there the most

Obvious bet of the week go top topped birdie or better at the century South Korean very talented s two wins on the PJ tour one of them in the desert yeah absolutely in Las Vegas Sun Jim 20 to one I we talked about his Century performance last week didn’t we

And uh yeah 34 birdies that that’s very nearly every other hole finished fifth in the end and if you got someone who’s been that prolific with birdies in the very recent past and you come into an event like this where birdies are the currency I think he could he could just

Hit the ground running and absolutely run away with this he’s got some hyper consistent format of PJ West as well isn’t he 12th 10th 12th 11th 18th from five stars it’s consistent it is yeah I I I think he can go better than that I think he can produce a big personal best

Here this week and uh and potentially win it taking back you talked about Jason duffner um a few seconds ago and daffner when he won you could pick the minuche out of his performance the previous week where he had topped birdie performance at the would have been the

Sony and then went on to win uh win this event and I think the logic with sjm very much follows so 20 to1 happy to take him this week yeah can’t argue cannot argue what about you Baron are you anywhere in this kind of part of the market or you are

You going to be deeper down I I mean I I have to join Paul and um SJ the it’s going to backfire but it there’s also the fomo so if if he’s just if he’s got that Vibe of making birdies he had a week off to

Just to just cool things down so yeah it’s um it makes it makes so much sense and 20 to1 is nice um I I went through his record and every one of his main tour wins or decent tour wins I’m not talking about some event he played in ker last

Year against guys ranked 700th in the world all came off something L till 30th 25th so that’s the only reason the only thing I could find not to back sanj do that so yeah I’m completely see where you two are at I mean look the added bonus is if it

Does go wrong I’ve ruined one of Paul’s bets because he’s done that to me a few times recently so you know I’m winning either way a couple of quides to do that is it ABS renge yeah uh where I’m going to I’m going to go back on to Eric Van royan yeah nice

Price this week um I don’t know all right week last week um in the Sony I just I kind I kind of like him on um on biry Fast courses so yeah yeah let’s go I like Eric he’s within the top 25 of my rolling eight week Strokes

Gained on approach numbers and he gained a whopping three Strokes with the with the driver last week at the Sony yeah so he is marked on a green to go on my sheet but I didn’t pick him so yeah Eric Van Ryan very logical love that um my

Long shot is um Eric Van Ryan as well so we we’re horribly aligned this week but don’t forget this is the guy who shot 27 under to win the wwt back in uh November wasn’t it so um he can go low enough to win this President cup year and did you

See the amount of Internationals all floating around the top of the leaderboard last week including Ben AR who got into a playoff yep yep I’m with you guys um I’ve gone for a 55 to one shot that I know Paul will be on he makes birdies and Eagles in

Bunches fifth for par Breakers last term 10th for total birdies second for par for bird or better that’s handy on this this week with plenty of pars on three par 22s he was seventh for Eagles per hole last season in this field that’s only behind a player called Hayden

Buckley who we know is another sort that’s very long and very straight off the tea now I can’t say that about montgomer he tends to be a little bit crooked but of late the driving seems to have improved his approach play last week at the Sony was lights out the only

Reason he finished 13th because because usually as Paul mentions literally every week when he backs him this guy is a tremendously good putter it was only the putter that held him back last week and when I look at his form from mid October forward 35th at the Shriners 16th at the

Zozo 31st at the wwt then there’s an eighth at the RSM and a 13th last week that’s the kind of form we saw from someone like a Hudson Swafford who won this at that 66 to1 price point he was fifth here last year he also I believe has a a top 10 finish

At the Shriners TPC suming potentially he was up there top 12 something like that Taylor Montgomery love his chances this week Taylor Montgomery absolutely I I love the idea of having a a top class putter on the team this week it makes so much sense and as you say Steve last week’s stats

Were unusual for him weren’t they second for strokes G approach 10 for strokes G CA green and pretty neutral with a poter which yeah really really isn’t I think that was one of his best tea to Green performances Paul of his short but fairly chunky because we

Had like a season that lasted 18 months um PJ to a career just the P bolt so it looks like he’s been working really hard on the basics the fundamentals you just hope this week the putter starts coming back well if if he marries those two together then he’s going to run sunjay

Very very close this week now you mentioned Jason duffner he topped birdies oretta at the Sony the week before winning you guys are all on sjm who birded or better 47.2% of holes at caloa at the century I’m on a guy that was third sorry t T2 for birdie Aletta

Last week at the Sony and I’m sorry I’m going to bring this back to you Barry the only player that beat him was benan who made the most birdies or better last week at the Sony I’m on AE bartier and AE um he made an eagle and 21 birdies

Last week which was the same as our backdoor hero Russell Henley who got another backdoor top five at a ridiculously short price IM IM Emiliano Grio who I can never say the name of and Denny McCarthy there was also Michael Kim who could be one to look at this week he he

Made lots of birdies and one Eagle last week as well sorry he made 22 straight birdies rather than an eagle Michael Kim um but yeah Bara 60 to1 I’m on him um he literally when you look at recent outings he’s always in the top 20 for birdal better each and every week he

Makes a huge amount of birdies and I can remember him a couple of weeks ago he was in the final group wasn’t he at the century which I thought wow AA batia in the final group of a 59 man signature event level tournament I mean that’s a big step up for a Bara

From California his first ever top 10 on the PJ tour was at Silverado he’s his only ever major was the uh open they held at Pebble Beach he was 57th in that so he’s clearly got an affinity with the Golden State I’ve got 60 to1 with William Hill

Eight places each way on AE Bara who literally is lights out in terms of his birdie making at the moment and just about long enough to make a few Eagles as well I’ve now got one other tip boys he’s 175 to1 do you want to chime in

With any others before I go on to that no I’m done sanj Montgomery and Van royan for me my three Barry uh not nothing spec n a whole bunch of them at like 150 Plus or so I I just uh I’m not going to scatter gun it

Right here at the Pod it’s all in play this week these these big monsters mate big monster prices one did call one L I probably will back is Alejandro tosy caught my eye in the couple of the early rounds last week had uh had a very poor third round

77 that kind of doesn’t help your chances but uh yeah I’ll figure it out I wonder if this guy Adrian um Dumont chasar I think I got his name terribly wrong there um he’s there’s a lot of hype there I wonder if kind of figures

It out an easy course will help him kind of uh find the comfort zone to get start it he way down the way down the field last week I I do keep an eye on him because we we mentioned him quite a bit at the back end of last year but um yeah

There was nothing there last week but watching I think yeah it may may maybe that like tight you know tight little tricky course like that doesn’t it’s not the easiest intro but yeah let’s see just it’s I mean with kind of one eye to the future of the Ryder Cup because he

Is getting hyped quite a lot so H it’s one who whose name just you know um catches my eye on the leader boards or bottom the leaderboards as it was last week yeah I tell you some players I had a quick I had a very deep look at and didn’t go for Nick

Taylor he was second at Phoenix last year and he was in the top 10 last week Nick Taylor Canadian Cam Davis he fired that lights out 62 to start Sony Open last week and then kind of just trod water the salort people seem to be undervaluing this car Yuan another huge

Price this week for GU that finished in the top five last week for Klan and he he also had a top five at the end of last year fourth last week in the end talking about your man virtually certain is it who did you not see the whole drop thing that no say

That no okay go go the virtually certain thing will make sense when you go check it out the most outrageous temporary immovable obstruction drop in tour history it’s it’s C it cost I mean by by the thing it probably cost some players you know money and FedEx Cup points you

Know it could it’d be interesting if something like this has an effect at the end of the season oh well yeah no doubt about that he was fourth at the Bermuda championship carlan and he was in the top seven for birdes or better that particular week and then last week

You’ve got him finishing fourth and he was again in the top the top seven for birdies or better and you’re getting him a huge triple digit price this week car um the one I’ve plumped for is Paton kaziah now Patton kazai you know if you’re down the pub

And we’re having a we’re having a our 13th beer of the day after going around Wentworth you know not that we would do that what do you think you know and you’re talking about Paton kazai always the sort Resort scoring courses 20 under jobs yeah he can putt lights out make

Loads of birdies in bunches and to me he’s the kind of player that always plays well in the desert and you look at his record yeah second and fourth in Las Vegas at the Shriners he’s had top 10 at the Barracuda he’s had a top 10 at

Phoenix and then you just look up what he’s doing at the moment I don’t think he’s got a full card from memory he’s had a 12th at the RSM classic at the end of last year and he had a 13th last week at the Sony Open

And it’s how he’s act sorry he’s had a 12th and a 13th for strokes gained te to Green those two weeks that’s what I’m where I’m coming from which is very UNP Kaz like it looks like he’s gone back to basics and he’s actually hitting Fairways which he hasn’t done years he’s

Hitting the ball straight he’s playing some very nice um approach consistent approach play and you just think with pan what’s the kind of course where that will eventually come out and go all of a sudden patterns towards the top of the leaderboard it’s something like this

Week where that will happen he was 11th here last year and I can assure you he wasn’t playing golf of the same standard arriving here last year from T to Green he has taken a leap or two over where he was so if he can keep the the te to Green game

Going and actually make some birdies this week Patton kazai 175 to one I’m on him with bll sports eight places each way Patton Kazar so kazah aea Bara Taylor Montgomery for Paul and myself and then I’ve gone Eric Cole Jason day JT Poston right let’s move on we’ve got an

Absolute cracker in Dubai the hero Dubai Desert Classic over to you Paul yeah the first Rolex series event of the of the calendar year and as I said last week actually um Abu Dhabi tends to be the first Rolex series event but that’s been pushed back to November it will be the

Event before the DP World Tour Championship this year so essentially the uh by Desert Classic is the headline Tournament of the early season Middle East swing this year we’re back to a full field uh well 126 players so um near as damn it a full field back to

Having a halfway cut so regular tournament Play No proom ele element like last week so back to normal interesting field as you say at for the world’s top 15er here Rory maroy headlines as you might expect 100 to 30 10 to three the best price um as of

Tuesday morning here over in the UK he’s going for his fourth duy Desert Classic title this week so kind of explains the price of course till Hatton 10 to one till loves a Rolex serious event doesn’t he he’s got got a few in his on his CV

Over the years 10 to one if you fancy a bit bit of tal last week’s winner Tim Tommy Fleetwood 11 to1 Adrian [ __ ] 22s Brian Harmon the open championship winner drifting a little bit in the market 22 to1 also Cameron Young’s playing 22 to1 then we got the likes of

Nikolai hoard Adam Scott wackin Neeman 25 to1 wackin was playing some good stuff back end of 2023 wasn’t he 28 to one bar those players that I’ve just mentioned so Kraken field um some decent enough each way terms out there Coral lab Brooks boil Sports all of them eight places

Each way 150 Ys by default and of course we’ve got the bet 365 range of options as ever with their each way extra facility so do do do do some shopping around before you uh place your bets because there may be some decent options on there with your each way combinations

We’re at the magist course the Emirates Golf Club in Dubai as ever a CO Litt design so same designer as last week uh regular desert Affair this week though 7,428 yard par 72 four par FS driver Par Four at the 17th hole now all the greens were remodeled and we mentioned this

Last year uh they were remodeled ahead of the 2022 renewal uh same Bermuda Tiff Eagle grass has been using The Parting services so they didn’t change that what they did do was they made the holes or made The Parting services around about a third bigger so they’re huge um ping

Surfaces uh now at the Emirates 12 to 13 on the stimp usually and typically quite firm and we saw last week at Dubai Creek which is just down the road that the greens there were getting nice and firm and fast and uh with no rain in the

Forecast and the weather sets looks set fair actually dry Sunny relatively Cal calm light winds no wind in the forecast I’m expecting the greens to be pretty firm this week which will create some kind of a challenge for the players I think loads of History to run through

This week all on the website we’ got event stats going back to 2002 on the site um current form combined form Etc all there available to peruse just to give you a flavor of recent winners start let’s start at 2015 shall we 2015 was Rory that was his second Dubai

Desert Classic winner the time 7 to2 he won back in 2015 2016 Danny will it 40 Sergio the following year 20 to1 howon Lee 110 to1 in 2018 Bryson W in 2019 at 10 Lucas Herbert 200 to1 in 2020 then most recently Paul Casey 25 to1 Victor

Hovland 10 to1 and then Rory when he’s third Dubai does a classic title last week last last year 16 to5 I’ve got listed here he opened at 7-2 uh early on on the Monday last year and then got backed in much in the same way as he has been backed in already

This week There’s a few shocks in there but mainly in the main short prices have tended to get the uh get the job done here again with the with so much history we’ve got lots of stats to pour through a lot of the um traditional old style

Stats going back to the day and then a bit of Strokes gained more recently historically the real stat to pick out has been Grins and regulation it’s always been a strong J test this uh we’ve got five years worth of Strokes game data so that kind of gives us a

More granular level nowadays at the last five winners from Strokes gain off the T they ranked fourth ninth sixth second second so Strokes gain off the t is really quite consistent here Strokes G ta to Green Third seventh first third fourth from our five winners so if

You’re going to pick out three key stats this week if you’re just going to go to the predictor and load up um just three stats greens and regulation Strokes gain off the te Strokes gain T to Green would be the cornerstones of my analysis and have been the cornerstones of my analysis this

Week now fairly flat greens over here at the Emirates so um you could I think really the recipe for success is making sure you give yourself plenty of chances and that kind of lends itself back to the grins in regulation uh point from a a few seconds ago if you can give

Yourself Chances with a strong long game then you’ve got where you give yourself a chance of actually winning the winning the golf tournament I think in terms of current form the last 13 winners all had at least one top 10 finish in their last nine starts so reasonable incoming form

In Casey holand maoy the last three winners all of them had finished eighth or better on their very last start their most recent effort was a top eight finish and uh top four finish for for marroy last year coming into this the last five winners another Trend last

Five winners all had a top 25 finish here at the Emirates before winning so again this you know it tends to lend itself to a traditional view of current form and event form is not a bad place to start here if you’re looking at debutants Richard Green in 199 7 was the

Last debutant to win so some of these guys flying over from the States from the PJ tour making their debut this week um they’re going to have to break a long non debutant um Trend here to to actually get the job done we shall see I think for me biggest challenge this week

Likely to be the greens firming up um new PIN positions that they can be um employed as a result of the changes that have been put in um after over the last couple of years I think um in contrast to last year which was quite soft and that did play into the

Hands of Rory last year there was a bit of rain in the leadup to the event and uh you know Rory turns up having done a done a rain dance and and walks away with the title although it wasn’t all plain sailing you remember last year

That was the event that he um he went into that tussle with Patrick Reed and eventually got over the line on the 18th but um yeah is it wasn’t all playing Sal but that was with some some wet condition or with some softer condition should I

Say so uh yeah we see how it pans out this week really cautious approach for me though this week I must say I went through the the betting a few times I went through the analysis and the challenge is maroy could win this maroy should have won last week um he’s what

Just over three to one hot favorite to win this it’s won it three times already um the only thing and the only thing that really puts me off is the fact that it is much drier this year and um as we know with Rory he plays his very best

Golf when there’s a bit of cut in the turf when there’s a little bit of softness and um he can just go out there and shoot lights out and I think he won’t quite get that this week and that does just a bit level the playing field

So uh so I’m going to take a chance to some other players but there’s very much you know an earing on the side of caution here because Rory could still go and win the tournament 3 to one and everyone’s just playing for a pace which uh which is always the frustration when

Uh you have this kind of setup from a betting perspective other players near the top tal I he loves the Rolex event as I said but he’s still apt to tantum or three isn’t he on the course Tommy has never gone back to back um he’s gone close a

Few times um but he’s never gone winwin and he’s not historically been that kind of winning machine I yeah I think again Tommy could probably go reasonably close but um not for me 11 to1 Harmon young Neeman um they all making their debut this week so again back to the point about Richard

Green and being the last debutant winner I think it will probably be beneficial for those guys to have seen the course before and uh and and maybe in the years to come if they Contin to Grace us with their presence perhaps they’ll win one further down the line anyway um I’ve

Only backed three this week as I say caues approach the first one for me is Adrian [ __ ] who backed yesterday at 25 22 to1 best price out there he’s been nibbled in but quite rightly so I think four wins over the last couple of years on tour most recent was that andy luciia

Masters Victory which came shortly after the Ridder cup after being snubbed at the Ridder cup plenty of column inches have been written and plenty of words said about his admission from the team but that’s that’s water under the bridge now he got another win just to prove his

Point in the andalan Masters into the world’s top 50 now going to PJ tour card as we know um you know it’s not all bad for the uh for the big poll as it he’s he’s going places with his game and uh with his career I think this course sets

Up perfectly for him as well he was fourth here on debut back in 2020 to um he’s got that strong Strokes g off the te game that I think you need to succeed here 10th last week and on his reappearance at Dubai Creek second for

Strikes g off the T sixth for strikes g t to Green I think he can give Rory and if any of the other favorites are towards the very top I think he can give them all a run for their money this week and potentially win it aent [ __ ] at 22

To one best price right now at slightly longer price um I’ve also backed thj Olen at 33 to1 uh he’s another player who earned a PJ tall card with his strong campaign last year he’s based out in the UAE now so of course it made sense for him to stick around here in

Dubai to start his year played last week in uh at Dubai Creek playing this week at the Dubai Desert Classic and playing some good golf as well three top three top nine finishes in his last four events of the 2023 Seas his long game looked really really good by his own

Admission was a bit Rusty coming into last week but um I think the performance particularly with the poter he finished eth last week his per performance with the poter was um was was a revelation for him particularly how his long game had been at the back end of last year

And for me statistically um fourth for strokes game putting that’s a real eye opener um I’ve got to be involved with olome when the putters working going back to a course he’s got four top finishes here at the or top eight finishes here at the Emirates so coming

Back to a course where he has previously performed well he’s got a Rolex Series win to his name as well he won the 2018 Italian Open so he wouldn’t be out of kilter for thoron olon to win this week’s event I don’t think and the only

Other one I’ve backed is y Ferguson 70 to1 um as I said I’m keeping it very tight this week with with Rory locking looking like a potential winner at the top of the Market Ferguson one who caught the eye statistically last week at Dubai Creek as well twice a winner in

2022 couldn’t quite must a victory last year but plenty of top 10 last year including at the Earth course at the back end of the season in November Strokes G approach Strokes g t to Green game was really on point at the back end of the year and opened his account last

Week with a solid 11 th Place finish fifth rusy off the T fourth for greens regulation second for strokes G approach 10th for strokes g t green last week long game was looking really really good it’s a winner in the guitar that was a couple of years ago um 28th here on

Debut 12 months ago so um has had had a little CER of the course can play Desert Golf and playing some lovely stuff from Tia green you and Ferguson so yeah quite happy to give him a chance but that’s my three Ferguson Olan and Adrian

[ __ ] any bets on the DP well for you B this week um I’m weighing up Lawrence but he has two miscuts here the last couple of years so I have to figure out whether how to balance s if he just goes from a miscot to a let’s even say a place um uh

It’s a little off puting isn’t it a little bit yeah but he’s playing he’s playing some serious golf so you know that’s I’d like to think that just overcomes any mental scars from a couple of miscuts here uh so have to figure that one out um the other one I was

Looking at was caught my eye through The Strokes gained um and playing well because he qualified to um in the live qualifying series as cie samuya yeah he’s 36 last week he has 16th 27th 4th 12th and 38th here his last 5 years so clearly gets on well with the course and

I’m just trying to figure out the combination of uh price and places to back him after him I’m not really not really sure it’s it’s interesting I guess it’s Rory’s records that has him at 10 to3 when he was broadly 3 to1 last week in a field half the size that that’d be

Pretty much it would us yeah I think so yeah it’s well he’s got the guy’s going for a fourth Dubai Desert Classic win it’s um he absolutely loves the place and yeah you could quite reasonably have seen him win last week and you know had

He had he won would would he be slightly shorter arguably probably not I expect he he was probably going to be chalked up around this 3 to One Price Point regardless so whether you can stomach the prize yeah yeah hopefully and might be the greatest thing that could happen him in

2024 having that whoopsy at the very start of the season to to focus the mind it’s almost like missing sorry bad bad analogy but as an amateur you know you miss that little just a little tap input by you know not paying too much attention and for the

Next few months you grind really hard on all of those puts and you don’t miss a short one so you know the the the result in the initial stage is terrible but um what it does over the long term is helps you out so that’s it’s the only positive

Take I can try think of from last week for Rory yeah something something you said to me in um on on Thursday or Friday was about backing Rory for first round leader cuz he the price for first round leader always tends be you know quite inflated versus his outright price

He’s unbelievable at us yeah he he gets so many fast Stars doesn’t he you know not withstanding the the discussions we’ve had around the majors where he he quite often shoots himself on the foot on the Thursday but regular tournaments any last week another casing Point

Wasn’t it just got just flew out of the blocks and looked all you know for all intents and purposes the winner he was he was odds on for a long stretch es of that tournament um before finally getting beaten at the uh the death by by

Tommy but yeah I don’t know perhaps you look at it and trying to find some value is it a first round leader punt on him or is it potentially um you know wire to wire or if you do fancy him there’s there’s different ways to play it but uh

But yeah just just G to going to Swerve him and hope that he doesn’t uh he doesn’t do the job this week yeah I’m I saw I think I saw the St I saw in um sky was that that’s Rory has more firstr leaders than tiger which is

What prompted me to to send messages to you guys about it which is um and bl blind bastic isn’t it it is blind bet I mean for a regular event it is blind bet and then that got me thinking about why he doesn’t always seem to get going in major so quickly

And you know is is it because you know he hark back to when tiger used to say oh you know you don’t need to start fast play your way in and you know is that part of like the psychological makeup Rory has for Majors that somehow doesn’t

Get him involved early enough in the the upper you know the upper areas of the leaderboard who knows if we could figure out Rory we’d uh life would be a lot less Bor you know interesting yeah but I think if Rory could figure out Rory then uh it’s uh

It’d be world number one by an absolute mile just to put into cont text he’s 11 to1 for first round leader versus 3 to one nearest D the for the outright give me that bet first round leader last week he was also the first round leader at

The BMW Championship in August which was 1 two three four five six events ago so he’s had two first round leaders in the last six he does pop up very regularly Steve what about you you got any bets in this uh I didn’t have any bets on the DP well

T last week so I’m I’m like a kid in the candy store um lorri caner fourth and second fourth here in 2021 yep that if he wins doesn’t tend to win but I’ll take 40 to one with Coral eight places each way I’m following Barry on twist and Lawrence did you

See from a course perspective poll did you see last week’s course and this week’s course correlating in the way that it played is is there all thinking is if if if Tristan can play last week so well surely that could translate to this week on a course where he’s just got

Miscut so far because they are going to kind you know basically he’s playing far better golf yeah only the only correlation I think we might find is that the greens will play um similarly firm and that will create a similar kind of Challenge on and around the greens

From T to Green they’re very different causes but um yeah so a player who who performed well and that kind of why I went down the olon route was the players who got to grips with it quite quickly last week um could well hit the ground

Running this week as well but um yeah I I you might find over time that that thristan Lawrence um perform or that that record the miscut miscut here he’s you know is an anomaly and he puts it right at some point he was a different player back then it’s always question is

Would you prefer somebody who’s playing well but has a poor record on a course or somebody who’s playing poorly but has a great record on a course that’s you the argument both ways can’t you yeah I remember backing a while ago SE Striker at the Sanderson Farms who’ had

I think it was three outings three miscuts and we just said at the time this guy is phenomenally much better than he was and he finished second yeah you know reg just won’t find that surprised that he finished second cuz I was on him but um yes yeah I’m I’m not

So concerned about that I’m following you in on [ __ ] pole me that’s a Nob brainer you do get this thing where people a lot of people have finished top 10 the out and before and then win this yep yep and that brings me to my last pick I’m going for the Invisible

Man I’m going for wacky nean 20 to1 with William Hill six places each way on wacky nean this is a guy that’s gone to live earned a bucket full of money and he’s now realizing that he can’t play in major championships anymore he’s ranked 170th in the

World and the only way that he can get to play the Masters is to have very exceptional weeks at the very limited owgr outings that he has that aren’t Live Events and clearly he won the Australian Open Before Christmas in a sit in a similar setting he did and so yeah I’m on

Wacken he currently sits 70th in the world and will not be playing the Masters unless he can get some exceptional finishes in a couple of tournaments before the cut off yeah there there’s big uh there’s a big incentive there for him to to play well the the live guys absolutely mopped up

At the back end of last year as well they didn’t they they were just winning absolutely everything so there’s some motivation there from all those guys to take their opportunities and to you know to try and get as many world ranking points from these events as they

Possibly can so yeah there’s some very strange well there’s just notable stuff going on at the moment Woodland came back last week that was great to see Daniel Bergers playing this week at the AMX which is his first out on the PJ tour since the US Open in

2022 wow and like you said you could then get the these live guys that have been mopping up like nean they’re TR you know they’re just going around like sponges trying to get some official World Golf Ranking points in these these events yeah ousen and listen to this

Chaps Hideki matama is now outside the world’s top 50 players wow unbelievable weird stuff going on the moment I think that’s us uh I hope your bets go well chabs yeah best luck boys you too boys I hope your bets go well at home I expect next week we are

Celebrating sewo Kim’s victory at the American Express none of us have got a penny on him uh we will be back next week for uh always one of my favorites we all mopped up last year on Max Homer the Farmers Insurance open from Tory Pines Paul what

You on uh Ela next week that’s right we’ll see you again next week Cheerio but everyone that you’re back misses the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system Podcast