The American Express | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to La Quinta, California for the American Express. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
0:41 Course Preview
6:00 10K Range
13:26 9K Range
18:44 8K Range
24:31 7K Range
28:36 6K Range
31:05 Custom Model
34:18 Best Ball
47:20 Outro

#TheAmericanExpress #LaQuinta #StadiumCourse #PGATOUR #DFS #Golf​ #FantasyGolf #PGA​ #OneAndDone ​#RickRunGood​​ #draftkings #underdogfantasy

What’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s American Express where we are going to go through the stats for not one not two but all three courses the golfers that you’re going to want to look for in this kind of weird wacky little event we are going to run

Some models and then I’m going to do something I have never done before on a Monday show and I going to draft a best ball team and show you every single one of my picks that’s coming up at the end hopefully that helps uh with a lot of those format questions

That are coming up and something that I just really want to share and really am interested in for this week so let’s not waste any more time let’s jump into it the American Express this week uh this is my website Rick run good.com everything that you see from here on out

Will likely be from my website um giant database for Fantasy Golf and golf betting I love it I think you will too couple new updates like the The Event Center SL Live Leaderboard still figuring out what to call it the shot by shot track uh was in full swing last week and was

Absolutely awesome so really enjoyed that um new golfer profiles you’ll see those in a second but let’s let’s talk about this event so this is course rotation season this week next week at God is Farmers next week already um which I’ll be at uh Farmers next week

And then Pebble Beach in two more is that right is that the right order I think it is but either way the next three weeks are those events and there are eight total course in those events so we get a three course rotation this time around you get the

Pete D Stadium course that’s a newer name you might have heard it referred to as like PGA West Stadium Course or The Stadium Course in the past it’s now called the P die Stadium course you’re getting linta Country Club and you are getting the Nicholas tournament course

And what’s going to happen here is every single golfer is going to play one round at each of those three courses there will be a 54 hole cut and then the those who survive will go back to the stadium course for for the final round this is a chaotic Event Channel

Your inner Joker watch the world burn right just for Just for kicks this event has routinely popped up as one of the highest average uh outright winners at least in the last five or six years that includes John ROM winning this at 8 to one we’ve already got two events under

Our belt for this year in which you know guys who are hundred to one or longer have won both of those and just the nature of this event with the course rotation the course rotation there there’s going to be a lot of luck involved did you get the course on the

Right day whether it’s weather or just overall scoring conditions um you know that throws a lot of variance into it we have a lot of guys we haven’t seen before and are we’re getting an influx of of new golfers uh from the corn fairy from other places that throws a lot of

Chaotic things in chaotic variables into the equation you also have a situation where a lot of guys have taken time off there’s not a lot of recent form to go off of right so it’s just a very chaotic event embrace it embrace the chaos you’re looking at the the course key

Stats the regression model I’m going to admit it it’s not very good this week right it’s only two Stadium Course is the only one with shotlink data and you only get it for half the rounds you only get it for one round for those guys who

Missed the cut so in terms of like me being a data guy there is much less valuable data for this week than many other weeks the three courses this is from my uh my write up for this week on rickun good.com you can see um are are all going to play pretty significantly

Under par The Stadium Course played to a 69.2 Lita played to a 69.5 and Nicholas tournament course played to a 68.7 I believe linta has actually gotten linta has actually gotten more difficult over the years so now it’s the tournament course that uh seems to be the one that

These guys really chop up and you have to remember remember that um you know there was a time where the books you know first round leaders Showdown things that were not they were not paying attention to what course guys were starting on that seems to have changed but if you can still

Find some of those advantages uh go ahead and check it out the Nicholas tournament course seems to be the easiest one barring some type of weather situation which we’ll talk about later in the week for the rest of this uh especially for the stadium course what

You’re going to end up seeing is um there’s not a huge penalty for missing the Fairway right the rough here is is basically nothing the the penalty that you get if you miss the Fairway is if you miss the Fairway and find water so there’s four or five t- shots in which

Water comes uh comes in play off the tea at the stadium course that’s really when you start racking it up if you can avoid the water off the tea you can basically hit it wherever you would like because the rough is essentially non-existent and then you get what we kind of saw at

The uh Century a couple of weeks ago where there’s a lot of wed shots coming in inside a 100 yards and then as John Rah uh famously or infamously told us a couple of years ago it does turn into a little bit of a putting contest uh you

Have a winning score that for the last five years has been on average 25 underpar I I mean it’s it’s set up I this these are this is a proom as well so you you are not getting brutal difficult conditions with amateurs out there so it is it’s going to be easy

You’re going to need to roll a lot of putts all these guys have the capability of going low we see that week in and week out on the PGA tour we see it every week on the corn fairy tour again we’re going back to the central theme chaos i’

I’ve been thinking about all these like Joker things like oh you want to know how I got these scars betting Keegan Bradley right like all these little like nuggets that I could think here’s the cheat sheet there are four golfers over $10,000 and this is a pretty stacked field um the American

Express usually does not have a strong field this is probably the strongest in maybe ever at least in recent memory where you’ve got 20ish of the top 50 players in the world I’m just kind of making that up off the top of my head but it starts with Scotty sheff at

11,400 Xander Schley at 109 Patrick can’t lay at 108 and Sun JM at 101 then you’re going to get into the likes of Tom Kim Justin Thomas Ricky Fowler Etc ET we’ll talk about those guys in just a few minutes but let’s let’s look through this together and see what we can find

Uh we’ll start with Scotty sheffler we’ll go over to his uh golfer profile here and despite this being a putting contest and Scotty sheffler being uh a pretty poor putter historically he’s had a lot of success at this event third place in 2020 he did miss the cut in

2021 25th in 2022 and then 11th in 2023 again those are pretty good results for being I mean he wasn’t the favorite in any of those I guess maybe he was last year although John Ron was probably a favorite last year Scotty would have been fairly close but um if you go and

Look at the metrics and again remember we only have Stadium Course numbers last year he was a a tiny negative with the putter over two rounds you look at uh 2022 he was a a positive he gained a stroke over two rounds he’s actually putted fairly well at the stadium course

I believe in what he’s doing with Phil Kenyan right now his his new putting instructor and while we saw him punt away over four strokes or nearly four strokes at the Sentry on Saturday and Sunday um the fact that he gained 1.2 over the first two rounds the stroke

Looked a lot better to me I do think we are going to eventually get uh the tie turning for Scotty and even if he doesn’t putt well he’s a top five machine I will be interested to see what his ownership is because as as excited

As I am there is no golfer in this field that I am tied to this week and if he comes in at like 30% ownership I’m I’m willing to basically fade anybody this week because of the chaotic nature um Xander schle is 109 Xander is this this

Event is has a mind of its own but is really one of the more consistent golfers that we have on the PGA tour I was I was running the numbers the other day or yesterday I suppose and it just kind of looking at these you know these

Top 10 these top 20 finishes and I believe Xander is number one or if not one like number two in terms of like top 15s without a victory since the start of 2023 it’s it’s not a list that you partic that you really want to be on but

When you look at it week in and week out I I mean constantly in the mix never seems to disappoint rarely if ever Burns you right his last miscut his last miscut well he withdrew from the century last year so that was in January of 2023 the last time he actually physically

Missed a cut was the 2022 Masters we are approaching two years from Xander Schley playing healthy and missing a cut it’s it’s jarring stuff oh his new headshot came over nice yeah that’s his new that’s his new apparel companies callow has got the new logo on him on

The hat interesting so um I’ll be I’ll be interested to see what Xander done he’s played this he played this event last year he finished third Klay is the guy who has like the better course history so I I think the way the top end

Of this starts to break down is you get you get people who go to Scotty cuz he’s the most expensive he’s the best player in the world you get people who go to Patrick Klay because um he’s played well at this event he almost stole it in 2021

I believe he shot a 60 on Sunday at the stadium course and almost stole it from I want to say seiw Kim I think that was a sew Kim year uh he’s he’s been great here so that leaves us with kind of Scotty and sunj in Sun Jay’s been very

Very consistent 12th 10th 12th 11th 18th in his last uh in his last five years and I I think that sunj is about to have a monster year you know all the stuff I did in the off season pointed at a couple of items it pointed at Scotty

Being by far the best player in the world and if he does anything with the putter he wins five or six times um it it showed like a lot of these really Elite volume guys like your Eric Cole um and then it showed Sun J kind of in the

Middle which is Elite fantasy scoring playing less than Eric Cole but more than the top end guys and doing it in a way that is really sustainable his ball striking numbers are basically all green here and even darker green as of late basically since the Windom through the

Through the FedEx Cup playoffs he he was awesome he played horrible in his hometown or his now adopted hometown of of uh Atlanta at the Tour Championship then he plays great at the Zozo plays great at the Sentry gains four strokes ball striking there he has

So I haven’t talked about this in a while but one of the one of the things that you’re looking for in an event like this is how many birdies can you make what is your ceiling how hot can you get uh Sun Jay’s won the Shriners at I think

That was probably 25 under par the year that he won it and he has the skill set that generally train translates to this type of Birdie Fest can you get hot with your irons can you get hot with the putter if you can do both of those

Things you’re going to fill it up this week that’s why it’s a little bit of a concern around Scotty now he’s going to give himself like 20% more opportunities than everybody else is but the the the fact that you might not be able to make enough putts is is a problem so approach

Plus putting I’ll run those numbers in a second or actually watch I’ll just go to the custom model right now um let’s do this let’s do what do you want to do last 100 rounds um and then what we can actually do is just

Do or I guess we can just do it like this we’ll do strokes gained approach last 50 rounds half of our weights and shokes gain putting last 50 rounds for the other half of our weights the best golfer Eric Cole wow did you see that coming because I kind of didn’t where’s

Sunjay on this list he’s 20th yeah I guess he has had some losing he’s had a couple of big the Tour Championship really killed him in the ball striking stuff the he had a couple of bad putting weeks but he’s got when he has a bad putting week it’s really

Bad but he generally gains Eric Cole number is Eric Cole going to win this this would be such an event for Eric Cole to win by the way I don’t want to get sidetracked here but it’s Eric Cole Thomas dietry Tom Kim Alexander bujor Ben Griffin are your top five in that

Like really high upside last 50 approach last 50 putting some interesting names from six to 11 as well that that gets me excited but anyway back to sunj I think this is a pretty darn good pretty pretty darn good spot for him and when you you

Look at it are people jumping to to get in on sunj at 10,100 when you can have Justin Thomas minw Le Tom Kim for cheaper probably not when you can spend up a little bit more get K Leander Schley or uh Sheffer probably not so interested to see what the community

Does with sun JM I’m G to find ways to get him into my lineups get him into my one and done get him in my bets get him into stuff like that the 9k range let’s start with minwu Lee because it’s it’s time right maybe one of the more

Anticipated starts of of of uh of the year comes from minw Lee Fresh Off The win at the Australian PGA Championship third at the Australian Open you look at what he did last year he was great at the majors he was great all across the

Globe he bombs it he has turned into an excellent ball Striker he’s turned into just an all-around great player and if you look at the power rankings for the last 36 rounds everybody in this field minmo is actually the best player 2.25 to Scotty sheffler’s 1.7 now now the

Caveat there is beats up on some European tour Fields um which when you flip this to weighted Strokes gained minwu drops to 13th still very very respectable but not number one obviously um I think as as much as I hate it because minwu has the Firepower to just go scorched Earth around this

Place I don’t think this is a particularly great spot for him you know three course rotation in a proam with a a lot of volatility I’m looking at probably whatever his next start is going to be um avoid a little bit of the uh what what they call oh like the

Linan like the Min sanity right like the minwoo love this week I’m I’m probably just GNA take a little bit of a wait and see and catch him down the road but um if you if you want to go to Min minw Lee no problems there uh the rest of this

Range I’m a buyer of Justin Thomas for 2024 and if you look at his stat profile we can do this together here so you look at his stat profile I I believe that he is you know back to being a very very strong approach player plus 3.8 at the

Hero uh positive at the nedbank golf challenge positive five at the at the fortet um that’s good enough for me to to be back in and try to be a little bit early here but it’s going to matter about this column is he going to gain

Two Strokes with the putter is going to lose two strokes with the putter that’s what this is going to come down to I’m going to have my fair share of Justin Thomas in this range uh I’m also gonna have my fair share of Tom Kim So Tom Kim

Is another golfer that uh popped up in a lot of the the end of year research because his last six months and I’ll look it up are probably some of the best ball striking that we saw in the world you know wins again at the Shriners look

At this look at these ball striking numbers so if we go back to let’s go back to the US Open let’s say from from June to now so we can do this let’s say uh June 2023 June 1st 2023 to now and then sort this by ball

Striking we’ve got uh or maybe we approach play okay guys that have at least let’s call it 40 rounds of a sample size Scotty Sheffer number one uh Sam Ryder Eric Cole chz reevy Xander Schley Tom Kim so what was that Tom Kim sixth in the world also during that

Stretch he’s a much better putter than Scotty sheffler he’s a much better putter than Sam Ryder he’s a much better putter than chz reevy so he’s got ways to fill this up if you if you need to win a birdie Fest TPC Summerland is a

Golf course you have to go very very low on so excited to get access to Tom Kim again this week the concerns the concerns would be fow and Fowler these are guys that um the advanced metrics don’t really love remember Ricky So this event was a turning point for Ricky in

2020 he led this event at the 36 hole Mark he I think he played like the rest of the week like even par or something like that finished T10 and then that’s when he went into the slump he and then he went through the swing change and it

Didn’t take and then that’s and then finally you know multiple years later last year he he’s coming out of it the problem is since he came out of it since he had the victory Ricky’s not been good uh we can give him the pass for maybe

Being sick at the at the Ryder Cup but look at what he’s done s look at his stat profile prior to the win bunch of top 20 finishes a bunch of green a bunch of it was so obvious the win was eventually coming then he wins the

Results fall off the putter falls off again the drivers lost lost 6.7 at the hero insane lost five at the Sentry insane the putter you know I don’t want to get too deep into like the last three years of Ricky Fowler but Rick when Ricky lost the

Putter um that’s when things started to go sideways for him and then you start putting a lot of pressure on trying to stuff everything close he went through swing changes you you notice that the putter which which that was Ricky’s weapon for the first 10 years of his career

And when you lose that and when you lose your weapon it’s usually a long road to recovery it was for Ricky we’re seeing him struggle again I I hate this stat profile I I I really do um the 8K range how chalky will Eric Cole be because I got to

Admit good bad or indifferent course fit I didn’t think last week was all that good for him he finishes inside the top 15 I thought the centry was better for him finishes inside the top 15 he now has five straight top 15s uh six of his

Last seven his worst finish since the 3M open since July is a t35 at the Sanderson Farms we looked at the type of golfer who could get scorching hot at a birdie Fest like this approach plus putting it’s Eric Cole you look at the um you know go play

The mini tours where you got to get to like eight under par every single day Eric Cole does that right I mean just pretty big time birdie maker which is what you’re going to have to do last week he finished t13 and he was great for three rounds round two it was

Miserable he lost 3.6 Strokes to the field one of his worst rounds since he’s gone on this run but he gained four on Thursday four and a half on Saturday two on Sunday so so 75% of his rounds last week he gained two or more Strokes to the field

I I don’t know what to what else to say he’s he’s been really really good and I think this is probably just kind of setup wise a decent spot for him I do think that I’ll be I don’t think I’m gonna have to get much of him but I’m G

To try to be early on Windam Clark he’s been miserable uh I know that everybody knows that I I don’t have any good to say outside of 2023 he turned into a completely different player and elevated his game um to basically a top 12 player

In the world and he hasn’t shown that in just a couple of recent starts played well at the Tour Championship and since then he hasn’t played well that’s that’s only three starts I think at some point he is going to figure it out and when he

Does he is capable of winning big time events Signature Events major championships so he’s certainly capable of winning an event of this caliber the rest to this 8K range vaguely interested in Adam hadwin I think o is fine but we have to have a real conversation about Taylor Montgomery and what is real

Versus what is feel here right so Taylor Montgomery bursts onto the scene in the fall of two years ago has a pretty bad 2023 and now he’s back to playing well in the fall putting up great results the the advanced metrics still are not the best I’ve ever seen right he still

Loses off the te although although he drove it well at the Sony but do we have to take the 7.1 that he gained on Approach at the Sony the two and a half that he gained at the RSM do we have to take that pretty seriously because if we

Do and I think we kind of Might um he played here last year finished fifth great putter has always been a great putter can fill it up like I I think I think we I I’ve gotten him wrong more often than not but I think we have to

Start start taking this a little bit seriously and then finally in this 8K range the return of Daniel Burger that’s right it’s happening we have not seen Daniel Burger play golf since the 2022 US Open Brook line Matt Fitzpatrick not Lac with Windam Clark 2022 we are we are five months shy of

Two years since seeing Daniel Burger wow um first off I’m happy for him right I hope he’s feeling good I hope he’s back this feels a lot like the will zot tour situation and this is even longer than that so if you follow Daniel berer on Instagram he’s probably PO he posts a

Lot uh 98% of his posts are his dog fishing on a boat a sunset 2% of them in the last two years have been golf related and 100% of the two golf 2% of golf related post are him hitting a wedge literally I have not seen a long

Iron I have not seen a driver I have not seen anything I’m I’m sure he’s hitting those if he’s going to be in a in a PGA Tour event but man uh this would be a tough a tough one to pull I will say this though

Just like will zalot Tores if you start going back and looking at you know the last 100 round for everybody um you’re going to see Daniel burer like I want I want to remind everybody that Daniel Burger is an incredibly good golfer he is the 12th best player in the world

Over the last 100 excuse me in this field over the last 100 rounds and the ball striking is even better than that right so he’s actually just behind Tony fow as the sixth best ball striker in the last 100 rounds and not only that but he when he plays his best he’s very

Very well-rounded he’s he’s positive across the board so when we get Berger back at Full Throttle and and hopefully he will get there hopefully he is there I want to see him and I’m expecting him to start contending again but five months shy of two years out of the game

I mean again we just saw with Will Z tourus I believe it was a back injury as well for Burger uh I don’t think he went the surgery route like zores did but a lot to celebrate but a lot to be concerned about in the in the in the

Short term speaking of will zorus $7,900 I’m again we’re going to wait and see on will and just to just to show you just so we can keep track of of what he’s been up to um so now he plays the Sony Open and uh loses six shots to the field

He lost another four with the putter the the long putter didn’t work although I will say uh Thursday was all of that he was actually a small positive on Friday he played better on Friday not not good the the the long game uh the tto green

Plate is still not very good so we we’ve got to see some some gains here the fairly priced Steph Jagger all fall it felt like Stephen jger was $10,000 and you couldn’t spend that but now that he’s down to I think it’s 7900 look at this look at how good the

Stat profile is he’s got like the fourth or fifth longest cut streak on the PGA tour he’s got a bunch of top 25s he is well-rounded we know he can go crazy low finished 18 last week for $8,100 scored 925 fantasy points at 8% ownership sure

This feels like a Steven Jagger plays to to run him out there then we’re just going to play our guys right ball start $7,800 who had a great fall and got himself into the first couple of um Signature Events I believe because he finished 51st in the god whatever

They call it next 10 Aon five plus I don’t know what they call it but uh bo had a great fall this was his fall 30th 28th 7th 2nd 15th the gaining across the board is always good to see he’s turned into a really really good player and I

Don’t love that he has uh really struggled at this event I think he’s missed the cut in like three of his last four but I would argue yeah he’s missed the cut in three of his last four his best finish was t50 in that stretch but

He did finish 20th here in 2018 I don’t I don’t really care about any of that he is a much different much better golfer now than he was even this time last year look at what he did um at the end of last year just constantly losing from T

To Green constantly losing ball striking it was always a good putter then he adds a completely different dimension I mean look at these Gams look at these Gams it’s it’s very very good stuff so um good to see Bo playing well we’re going

To get in on B we’re going to get in on Davis Thompson who finished second at this uh event last year we’re like we’re playing our guys here and then I’m going to point out Rio Heats who if you go and just look at the power rankings for

Every you know every tour last whoops not last 260 rounds uh last 36 rounds for everybody in the world sort by Strokes gain total I’m pretty sure he set sun is number one he’s not he’s fourth I don’t know what I was looking at earlier but um so it’s minwu Scotty

Nicholas lindheim and R Heats we’re going to look up his stat profile here just so that you can see this and and boom so he finished 30th at the Sony which actually he was playing better than that he lost a little bit on Sunday and lost a little bit of ground finished

T8 at the Australian Open t13 at the PGA uh Australian PGA Championship he I mean he’s been crushing it on the European tour and he’s playing well now at at uh on the PGA tour he is still $7500 and last week he was 4.9% owned I’m getting down with with uh

Ben Griffin $7,400 we talked about approach plus putting Justin Su playing uh Palm Springs Desert Golf very similar to what he plays in Las Vegas he can fill it up with the putter that’s interesting to me I’m going to um there was somebody else down here Dylan woo like we’re playing we’re

Playing our guys right we’re just going to these guys that can fill it up Sam Ryder’s kind of interesting we haven’t seen Sam since the RSM finished 13th there finished 10th in mayakoba hasn’t had much success in this event but we we saw him earlier approach plus putting generally a pretty good combination

Around here then the 6K range which of course the custom model will uh help us a lot with but just see what we can find here let me run through a couple real quick uh Carl Yuan finished fourth last week he has now finished fourth in in

Two of his last three starts he is no surprise great ball Striker poor putter but has he found something because in he’s now gained Strokes putting in three straight starts so Carl you on are we are we finding something here I want to look up what Maverick McNeely did because mcney

Is now back and I want to see what his stat profile looked like compared to before the injury always putts well long game is struggling a little bit but the one guy that I think is ready for the bounce back is Vince wayy so Vince wayy

The end of 2023 into the fall was great 1th at Shriners eighth in Bermuda 13th at the RSM classic gains across the board last week loses 2.2 Strokes putting which he hasn’t done since the barbasol in July and cracked a streak of six straight events in which he’d gained

Significantly with the putter so I’m willing to say he knocks off the rust comes back out putts much better gives us that t to Green play Vince Wy probably my favorite bounceback candidate there in the $6,000 range and if I’ve said it once I’ve said it a

Million times if you want a Looney Tune in a Looney Tune event who loves playing Desert Golf who can fill it up you played Norman Jong who gained four strokes in round one now I think he had to come out and finish his round one he was almost he was flirting with first

Round leader last week all the fir power in the world he was bad rounds two three and four maybe you find a little single round matchup May maybe you find a little Showdown maybe you throw a little I don’t even know what he’s going to be

500 to one to win this golf tournament the dude can win he won three starts ago and he’s won each of the last couple years on the corn fery because he catches nobody catches lightning in a bottle like Norman does not only this one win I think it was this one he

Monday queued into this one Witchita Monday queued into Witchita on the corn faery and then won it by like six shots like he he’s just he catches lightning in a bottle twice a year uh it’s really remarkable stuff so uh if you’re embracing Chaos Head after Norm custom model rickun

Good.com let’s clear these weights out all right what are we doing this week well we got to stick with just a lot of I guess longer term stuff we can do some approach and putting and overall but let’s just let’s just start with this let’s say Strokes gain total

Last I don’t need to go I don’t need to go 100 let’s go 40 rounds for 20 right that just kind of covers our butts a little bit and then we will go with Strokes gained approach last 15 or excuse me last 36 for 15 Strokes game

Putting last 36 for 15 okay I think that’s pretty fair let’s get some scoring stats in here uh let’s do fantasy points gained for 10 let’s do implied win percentage for 10 that’s just their um their odds let’s do easy courses for 10 there was something else I wanted

What was I just thinking about uh whole types no I want oh I want like opportunities plus so giving yourself looks inside 10 feet or 15t if you want opportunities I’m going to do opportunities plus gains for 10 and we’ve got 10 left we are going to do

Um I don’t even know if it’s worth doing I mean it’s only 10 St State PGA West Stadium Course um history all right wow so number one Scotty Sheffer number two Patrick Klay zero surprise zero surprise number three is Eric Cole is it just too much where I I I’m

Just so worried that I mean there’s just no secret of Eric Cole and me trying to be the smartest guy in the room is just like I’m just not going to play Eric Cole why not he’s just going to win this right Eric Cole Tom Kim Sun JM

Wow love that I’ll play those five I will play a lot of I’m actually I need to save this because I’m not going to remember this on Wednesday so this will be Monday MX model 2024 and I’ll I’ll save that so I don’t forget how about this JT po talk about

Guys who can Putt and hit their approaches talk about guys who fill it up quickly microwave Xander 7 jt8 minwoo n didn’t talk about Taylor pendri 10 Sam Ryder 11 Jagger 12 cool cool cool cool cool I love this oh you know it’s you know it’s always horrible when you love

The what the model spits out usually I I’m indifferent to it McNeely 117 yeah I mean his stats are bad where’s Norm 125 yeah well stats are bad oh what we could have done what we also could have done is um Strokes gained like how often they

Gain like four more five or more to the field something like that that could have been cool too we can mess around with that on Wednesday Wednesday live chat um 3 p PM Eastern Time Rick run good YouTube channel but I love this model I’ve saved it we will mess around

With it on Wednesday now for the very first time ever what I’m going to do is I’m going to show you a best ball a season long best ball draft that I did uh yesterday okay and it will show you every pick that I make I will talk through and

Provide some analysis along the way this is on Underdog so you uh you have to be in by the Phoenix Open so it’s it’s it is filling pretty quickly season long best ball I’ve never played it for golf before it hasn’t really been offered I’m excited about it it goes from Phoenix

Open to the Open Championship I think there’s a ton of strategy involved I have a lot of tools I have a video about this so I’ll you know you can go check all of that out I’ll link everything that you need um you can use the code

Rick get a a deposit match that would help me as well it’ll help you in in additionally but this is a really really fun format that I’m loving and I’m a bunch of drafts in and I’m showing you one that I did yesterday so here we go

All right we are ready to rock and roll here I hope we do not get the fourth pick we get the first overall pick I haven’t had one of those in a while so I’ve got the rankings on the right obviously the draft room on the left

We’re going to take Scotty Sheffer here the number of drafts that I’ve already done I think that uh I’m going to stay close to my rankings but what I’ll probably try to do is maybe reach and get a little more Jordan spe in the next handful of drafts probably let Eric Cole

Go down a little bit I’ve got a lot of Eric Cole I don’t have enough Jordan SP I think he’s a really good high upside player probably going to try to reach for for sunj IM at some point now we are in the 1-1 so that means we’re uh

Getting a pick early and then we’re not getting another pick until 12 and 13 so we’ll see how much that actually shakes itself out uh but yeah this is you know this Sheet’s available for you uh I think I of Scotty is basically the by far the the highest rated player here

Haven’t had one- one in a while so we haven’t gotten him in a while I’m I’m going to take Scotty here okay so first round was sheffler havind Rory Klay moraca that is pretty chalky except for the fact that Xander Schley didn’t go uh didn’t go to eight that is a a great

Steal for North cut uh to get shley at eight I had him as the fourth overall pick I will not be able to reach for Jordan spe I will not be able to reach for sun JM they’re both already off the board so if those guys are off the board

There is somebody likely falling to me here at number 12 the likely candidates are probably Terell Hatton or Eric Cole who I I have as the seventh ranked golfer uh based on volume and based on you can go watch the video all all of that stuff uh he’s in all the events you

Know am I GNA have to take Eric Cole again we don’t have home on the board there goes ludvig so we’re going to get two picks uh maybe we go Terell hat and Tommy Fleetwood I would like that that’s my that would be my desired path here if

We can get through Jay slay taking one of those two if we don’t get that it’s probably going to have to be we have a lot of Eric Cole we have a lot of Windam Clark um I would like to avoid those guys but this might just be a situation

Where we’re we’re kind of stuck there I would love for Jay SL to take Eric Cole he takes Justin Thomas all right so we’re going to take Hatton who is my sixth overall player we’re going to get him at 12 then we are going to take Tommy

Fleetwood who I have at 11 we’re taking him in the 13 spot Fresh Off Victory I think it’s going to be a massive year I thought it was going to be a massive year for Tommy no matter what so we are rocking with a couple of Europeans the

Other thing and someone was pointing this out in the comments um on on my other YouTube video the idea a of Leaning a little bit more on the Euro guys because that Fifth and final round so again I highly encourage you’d go watch go watch those videos the way that

The you know I’m trying to predict the number of starts for every single player in each one of the rounds one of five rounds and round five is the hardest it’s the one that’s farthest away we don’t have a lot of information but it it does include both the Scottish open

And the Open Championship which you would think that you know you think hatton’s going to probably play both of those you think Tommy Fleetwood uh is going to play both of those maybe he sneaks in another one there so you might be able to drop the Hammer with a couple

Of those guys and leaning just a little bit more on uh the Euros if you can get I mean if you can get to the fifth round you have you’ve got a really good problem if you if you don’t have enough points but uh happy to get both Hatton

And Fleetwood there all right so getting ready to come back to us here again phenow Henley wendam Clark off the board sah off the board minwu just went off the board uh and Windam Clark just went off the board so my highest rank golfer right now that’s still out there is is

Ben on I have him 16th overall he is 24th he might be a volume guy we might take him I have Danny at 18 I don’t have much Ricky Fowler yet uh I do worry about how much he could play and if he is going to continue to

Play I have him projected for 13 out of 23 starts and he he didn’t really play very well down the stretch after his win so that makes me a little bit nervous but um you know he could be somebody that kind of wins you one of these if he

Does kind of get hot again I don’t love the position that we’re in here I don’t think that these are a lot of really good options if you look at the scores they’re all very very close you know there’s there’s six guys here seven guys

Here between a 6.0 and a 6.4 which makes them all very close so um what I will probably do is I have I do have a lot of Ben on already because I’m much higher than him than than adps um I’ll take Fowler in one spot I don’t have a lot of

Fowler and I don’t love this but trying to diversify a little bit and this is basically right on his right on his ADP so I’m going to take uh I’ll take Fowler and then I as I really am quite high on Justin Rose but his ADP is 45 so there

Is a chance that we can get back to him like I have Rose as the 21st player um so I think the play here and I don’t have a ton of Denny I’m nervous about Denny as well but I’m going to go Denny here and try to get Rose the next time

This comes back around to us all right so Poston and Kirk go uh back to back there at 30 and 31 there was a hope that they were going to fall to me I thought Poston was a a pretty good candidate to play you know maybe gets himself into

The travelers to play John Deere to play rocket Mor I think I think he could have played a lot in you know round four round five especially in round five If he if he gets there I think um you know as I’m as I’m recording this he’s he’s

Going nuts at in the final round of the Sony Open so maybe bumped himself up a couple of draft spots I did I did not get a chance to get them Benny an just goes off the board as well so we’re a couple of picks away um I’m I’m hoping

That we took this calculated risk on Justin Rose and it works out and then I do think that someone like a Steph joerger who I do not have a ton of yet um would be a tiny little reach on his ADP 41st overall I’ll probably take him

At 37th if he is still there I think that he is oh zal tus just went at 34 that’s interesting um you know he makes a ton of cuts he has a lot of top 20 is he plays a lot I think he’s just like a

Solid volume option so if I could get roseen Jagger I think that is the path here um probably GNA stay away from and Adam Scott uh Cory Connor has a has a very low ADP we’ve kind of let him fall but um I don’t I have Cory

Connors at 30th I have joer at 29th I have Justin Rose at 21st so trying to get out of here with roseen Jagger let’s see I will yeah so Hideki goes right before so so we’re going to take Rose at 36 we going to take uh Jagger at 37 and

Then I think when we get back when it gets back to us and we are what are we 48 49 um I think our our realistic options are you know I’ve gotten sniped on Adam hadwin a little bit here I I would love to get a little bit of Adam hadwin

Exposure he is in all the um the Signature Events I have Adam hadwin as 34th so i’ i’ I’d love to get him there you know it it’s funny because I’m basically you know for the most part you know everybody’s got so many different ranking systems and everything that I’m

Basically getting guys way above where I would want them or way better than what I want them you know I take I take Justin Rose at 36 I had him at 21 so there is a lot of inherent like confirmation bias where I’m doing the right thing but that assumes my rankings

Are perfect and they’re obviously not that would you know that would be impossible for anybody so trying to get a little bit creative here I think I’d love to get um even if I got away with hler and Adam hadwin or Adam hadwin and Adam shank the two Adams next both of

Them are in all the Signature Events both of them play quite a bit those would be my two Targets when it gets back to us all right so we’re a couple picks away here we’re still alive to get both Adams uh I swear maybe I’m just forgetting these names but I swear Jay

Slay has sniped me from Adam hadwin like three times I maybe I’m just confusing him with somebody else um B hostar off the board Lucas Glover just went you know Lucas Glover that that could be a pretty tough pick um I was probably not going up with a lot of Glover in these

Drafts would love to get both Adams let’s see if we can dodge this we’re on 46 so I mean Shane Lowry’s out there ADP wise this shank probably goes here both of these guys are right in the range in which they’re supposed to go so Adam Scott that’s an Adam we faded

Come on Jay slle don’t do it to I I’m pretty sure he took Adam Adam hadwin last time in front of me at least I’ll get one of them and then I’d probably take Nick Taylor with the other if if that was the case but would really love to get through

This got it wow we got through kurk kyama goes at 47 so we are going to take shank who I have 44th um we’re going to take him at 48 and then Adam hadwin who I have at 34 we are taking at 49 uh both of those guys in uh all the Signature

Events uh just gonna play just gonna play like an absolute ton play well what I also like about them is they are kind of super upside guys right if you look at Adam Adam shank’s profile it was like uh 50th or seventh 50th or sth that’s great in best ball

Adam hadin the same probably won’t win but might dial up a couple of top five finishes for us uh at some point so we got both Adams there now we’ve got two picks to go and they are um where are we 60th I’m sorry we have one pick to go

With the last pick of the draft sorry so we have the last pick of the draft here 60th um you know I think an ideal situation is I get someone like Nick Taylor I I’ve I’ve yet to take a lot of the live guys maybe I drop a John ROM

Here if he’s I’ll tell you what if Rah is still available I’ll take ROM uh just with the last pick I don’t have a lot of live guys guys I’m not sure it’s it’s great because the options are like ROM or Nick Taylor although I think Nick Taylor just

Went he did man is is t i I just don’t I honestly don’t know if taking the live guys is really really bad or not you’re only getting four four starts and you can’t make I mean if these were bigger I don’t think I can take ROM I think if these were

Bigger rosters like you have 10 golfers you have and you’re starting six of them every week if we had 20 golfers I think got to be taking a lot more live guys so I don’t think we’re going to be able to do it Moran is our is our best projected

Golfer left um that makes me a little bit nervous I mean this is a pretty crappy situation I don’t love any of these we could take luk list we could take Alex norin I already have a lot of luk list I don’t have a ton of Alex

Norin I could continue down and just try to find a like a breakout candidate that no one’s thinking about like a will Gordon or a Hayden Buckley or a Carl Yuan or a Keith Mitchell or an addc like a like a corn fairy guy like maybe Ben Co I could run

D okay how about Daniel Burger he’s not in anything though but Burger’s like God um let’s take noren I think that’s the right play but maybe I could have gotten a little freakier all right so that final team looks like this uh Sheffer Hatton Fleetwood Fowler Denny Rose joerger uh

Both Adams hadwin and shank and then Alex norin I’m pretty happy with that I almost punted it away with a ROM or somebody like that late but I’m I’m I’m pretty happy with that that’s probably one of my uh everything looks really good at this point but one of my one of

My favorites so we we’ll see all right um that’s how this works right and it’s a ton of fun I’ve got a ton of resources now now that I’ve got enough of these drafts under my belt I’m probably going to try to just start mixing mixing up a

Little more maybe uh diverging a bit more from the rankings but it’s a ton of fun there’s a ton of strategy here and there’s a lot of ways to uh try to get it done so go sign up for Underdog link is in the description uh go check out

That video all the tools are there for you sign up for rickun good.com uh lots of big updates continue to come out there wishing you guys all the best of luck and I’ll talk to you soon yeah