2024 American Express Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds | Fantasy Golf Picks, Bets

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 American Express Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
3:31 Course & Stats
18:04 History
26:34 Field
29:20 Berger/Will Z/Woodland
40:42 Key Stats
47:03 Stat Model Results
52:13 Rolling Report
55:27 Guess The Betting Odds

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A Mayo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience American Express research picks guess the odds course preview have it all in store for you as you get a kickoff to the golf week you can always hit the time codes to jump to the spot

Where you want to go but hey I like to talk for like 45 minutes some people say that they like to listen or watch for 45 minutes they’re probably lying but it’s nice that they play Kate me in that sort of way but if you want to do the same

And at least make me feel good about it smash the like sub to the channel and sub to the audio podcast and join fantasy national.com fantasy national.com Mayo will get you 20% off all of the tools any of the memberships and that’s why I’m doing my walkthrough

With every single week on the research show so you can see what I do on the screen and then you can you say like hey Pat missed that part I can go check that out myself you want to do if you’re concerned about doing your own research fantasy national.com is where you need

To be all right fantasy national.com and I do know if you want some color with a lot of the research that goes along with it Tambo is doing a giveaway over at shipin nation.com right now if you sign up for any of the memberships weekly monthly annual with

Code Mayo not only do you get 10% off with code Mayo you also get put in a draw to get your membership upgraded to a free year regardless of the membership level that you go into Tambo and I will be giving away that winner on Tuesday’s DraftKings pick show so keep your eye

Out for that if you want to get into it all right the field at the American Express if you want the quick Kohl’s notes version it’s pretty strong to tell you the God’s honest truth it has Scotty shefford the number one player in the world and we’ll dig deeper into the

Field a little bit later on then we have a few guys making their season debuts and one guy who feels like he’s been at a golf for for 10 years at this point is seemingly playing this week but we’re getting Lowry minwoo and Justin Thomas back in our lives and Daniel how’s your

Burger yeah burger time he’s back Apparently after missing a year and a half with a back problem so that is going to be very exciting to see everyone knows that everyone who’s been a fan of the pat Mayo experience or hell even the pat Mayo hour back in the day

Knows how much we love Daniel Burger on this program so it’ll be interesting to see how he does probably don’t want to like fire off at Daniel burger right now uh a lot like how when Tambo and I have the discussion about will zot torus at the Sony I understand his reasoning of

Why he played like a 4% will zorus but I just didn’t want to take that leap I didn’t know where he was at and we’ll dig into how he actually did statistically because a lot of it on Thursday was granted putting and you know some we know he’s a terrible putter

So a lot of that stuff takes a little bit longer to come back and we’ll see if his ball striking was any good we’ll take a deeper look at Woodland as well to see how he is doing coming off the brain surgery that happened in the fall

And where his game is at at the moment maybe how we can project him out going forward but it’s not just Sheffer in this tournament and the guys coming over we have Xander we have Klay sunjay plays this tournament every single year so it’s a very strong field here’s the

Issue though it’s a three course rotation for the American Express at PGA West there is only one of the courses that has shotlink that has cameras at it and that’s the stadium course the Pete die course but there’s also the Nicholas course there’s linaa they’re all super

Easy courses you can get like into trouble a little bit on PGA West so let’s take a look at that right now in the course itself it is a POA green so it’s POA overseed at this time of the year per 72 7187 yards the greens are pretty small

They’re some of the smallest on the PGA tour I actually wrote down a list of the smallest screens on Z PGA Tour Pebble Beach is the smallest at 3500 Harbor Town after that 3700 TBC Southwind 4,300 for the St Jude Albany for the hero like who really cares those are 45 linta at

4700 PGA West at 5,000 so the fourth or sorry the fifth and sixth smallest Greens on the PGA tour in regular rotation are two of the courses in this tournament and then you have the Nicholas course which has like 7,000 foot grein so those ones are super easy

To hit uh for years the P The Stadium Course the Pete die course was the more difficult of the bunch but in later years it just you can still score there no problem we see it I mean sew shot a 64 to go win this tournament uh three

Years ago when they actually just split and took out linta during the covid year so it’s very scorable it’s just there’s a ton of bunkers laying around there’s a ton of water uh hanging around this course as well like overall when we take a look at the stadium course it has 90

Plus bunkers seven holes with bunkers in play so it’s big numbers are a foot like you everyone always remembers those like like death bunkers where they’re like 8 feet down or 80 feet down on the side of a hill so like if you’re just playing well you can score really well probably

The course with the most 77s throughout the week is going to be the stadium course but you just you wouldn’t want those guys anyway because it sounds like they’re playing terrible but you can score any of the courses so I wouldn’t pay too much attention to some of the

Other ones now if you’re playing Showdown we can get into that in a second The Stadium Course like I said is pretty good if you’re getting cute front to back holds a slight Edge this week in terms of draftking Showdown um only because you know if you play the back

You go three four um those are the the third sorry 17 and 18 are three or two of the four hardest holes on the course so if you just start on the front you’re not getting you’re unlikely to get a wraparound that way you’re we better off

Trying to manage through 8 n and 10 because eight is a par five it has a 2% Eagle rate the big difference really uh between the stadium course and the other two courses in the rotation this is a 54 hole cut everyone is guaranteed three rounds it’s a proam it’s not a proam

Like Pebble Beach because like Bill Murray and Clint Eastwood aren’t there it’s like Carlton from Fresh prins and Ray Romano maybe like Ray Romano stunt double is one of the celebrities more than likely at this one so don’t really show that part of it so that’s the

Stadium course uh in terms of the wrap round the eagle rate the highest one of the four power fours is 2 and a half% so if we take a look at the Nicholas scores PJ West nickolus you’ll see that in terms of draftking Showdown I mean everyone gets one crack

At each of these courses but the eagle rate at this course is just much higher all four of the power fours have an eagle rate of over 4% so just that alone I mean there’s one number 16 has a 6% Eagle rate which is just kind of crazy

Uh there’s going to be streaks at this course but it doesn’t really seem to matter whether you start on the front or back I don’t even know if they’re doing split T’s because you’re going to separate the field of 156 over the course of the three days I

I me they probably still will because it’s a stupid proam they’re super slow uh let’s take a look at litaa uh historically the easiest of all the courses it’s actually not necessarily it’s not necessarily that it has played tougher over pre uh other years just Nicholas and The Stadium Course have

Just played easier over the course of the past few years so honestly this one has an eagle rate of all the power fours over 2% there’s one at 4.4 3.6 3.6 so pretty easy um if you want to get contrarian fewer people will go to the stadium course because that’s always the

Prevailing narrative that the stadium course is a little bit harder and granted when you take a look at at the actual scores the scores per round then you’re absolutely right but we’re talking we’re talking about show down you still need to have the best scores

Of the day and those still can happen at the stadium course you just need to get a little bit luckier so if it’s one of these situations where you’re playing for first and everything else that not first is last uh that really depends on the rotation as well all of the best

Players in this tournament are likely to play The Stadium Course on Saturday so that gives them a huge Advantage because they can go Saturday Sunday at the same course on back-to-back days and the reason that they do that is because all of the cameras are at the stadium course

The shot link is at the stadium course so if you’re the TV network who is running this tournament you say to yourself hm I need to have Scotty sheffler and Patrick hlay and Ricky Fowler and Tom Kim and Jason day and Justin Thomas in my window that I have

Paid a lot of broadcasting fees for on Saturday if you’re the bigger Network that’s why the rotation works that way it’s very similar to Pebble Beach uh over the years now it’s not going to be the same this year cuz that’s an elevated event but but usually all the

Best players would play the dinky courses on Thursday and Friday where there are no cameras and as soon as the actual broadcast cameras the network cameras are there they would be playing that on Saturday and then you get the back toback repeat and boom you’re Off

To the Races so that’s the course itself honestly because you’re dealing with three courses like we’re we’ll take a look at the stadium course because that’s the only one that has like actual data to go along with it uh in terms of proximity ranges and you know any anything that’s

Gained related in terms of a shotby shot approach uh that’s the only way that we’re going to get any numbers here so you can be duped into thinking something like when we take a look at John ROM who’s won this tournament two of the

Past five years he won a year ago and he lost two and a half Strokes putting last year but those numbers are only from the stadium cor so you can make the case that hey John ROM won this tournament by losing Strokes putting chances are he didn’t lose Strokes putting at the other

Courses that’s where he was able to make up a lot of Strokes now he played great T to Green to go along with that it wasn’t a great putting week from John ROM but you only have two rounds of data to look at from this tournament and

Spoiler alert there’s four there used to be five at this turn used to be a five round one thank God they got rid of that that just sounds awful so we take a look at the finishers I mean John ROM has famously called this a [ __ ] putting

Contest and he’s not wrong but you need your approaches to go along with it as well we take a look at the top five it gets even more pronounced between approaches and putting around the green starts to mean a little bit less but if we’re just looking for players you know

To finish top 20 or make the cut um around the green inches up a little bit closer to off the te uh where approach and putting level itself out a little bit if we talk about just cut makers in general uh everything becomes a little bit more flatter with again approach and

Putting not breaking any new ground here that approach is important at a tournament par five scoring worth a little bit more parse three scoring strangely enough and that’s just for cut makers guys who make the cut uh so you can see that the par 3es mean a little

Bit more than the power fours in terms of Strokes gained of just making the cup we search that to top five uh it’s actually pretty level itself so par 3es that and there are some tough par 3s at this course you everyone kind of remembers it’s sort of the mimic of I

Mean this is a Pete die course it’s TPC the the stadium course at p PGA West is a TPC course it’s a Pete die course very similar to Saw Grass in that way we’re number 17 well it’s not an island green it is a peninsula green it’s basically

An island green there’s like rocks everywhere on the this course as well I mean duffner when I had I thought I used to be the king of this tournament I had duffner to win 45 to1 over lingor I want to say in like 2014 2015 he put it into

The rocks in the playoff against lingor and had a beautiful chip out of those rocks to make the power and ended up extending it beating Ling and cashing us our money that was the year that Danny Willet won the Masters because I translated that money into a big bet on

Danny Willet at the time and I know a lot of people who were fans of the pat Mayo hour at that point did the same same thing so this tournament will always be really fonded in my heart because the duffner win got me to put more money down than I would have on

Will it at the price it was in the middle of January which ended up paying for most of my weddings so it’s why people were able to have fun at my wedding and I was able to afford that it’s crazy how some of that stuff works

Out over time so there’s one par three that’s very easy at the stadium course uh number four it I mean it’s not easy but it does play below power making it the let’s see the it’s about even it’s break even but the other ones number 13 number six and number 17 the three

Hardest cor holes at PGA West all of them play overpower number 17 only plays slightly overpower but you can see there’s just big double or Worse numbers because of the water that goes along with it not a huge birdie rate only 16% but the highest on the course of doubles or worse

8.2% of the players that play this hole will end up making Double Or Worse only a 7% bogey rate which is sort of the inverse and that makes sense because there’s the water in play of number 13 and number 16 where one and five players are going to make bogey every time they

Play number 13 and almost the same for number six but the double or worst rate is like 5% so all of a sudden I know it’s one in 20 making Double Or Worse instead of one and 10 making double or worse so there are blow up holes on this

Course you guys can just kind of get through that either have a good bounceback percentage or have a good bogey avoidance but it’s really tough to translate bogey avoidance when water starts getting brought into play On a par three cuz like you know one bad bound one crooked bounce uh and you’re

Absolutely cooked when it comes down to it so you can see the distribution in average shot the plurality of shots coming from 150 to 175 at this course but if you can find someone who’s very good from 200 plus that’s going to translate at all of these courses and

That’s how you generate Eagles at this course which is what you want the cut is not going to happen until after round three you can see the historic cut line- 7 a year ago – 6 – 6 – 5 it’s only getting easier it’s – 9 in 2019 and this

Is a full field 156 players and this field is a little bit stronger than we’ve seen over the years as well so uh I would expect it to be probably at least minus 7 I got so sidebar here I got so screwed at the Sony by that stupid [ __ ] cutline and

Stupid Joel bamon missing the 4 foot putt to make it minus three I if you watch the show this week Tambo and I built I think nine lineups on the show I think five four or five of them were pure sixes sixes with minus three at the

Cut line all my I basically had no one at minus two like that I used in my player pool I faded Connors I faded Hideki I faded senson all the Fades that I had ended up at minus two and then all of a sudden I’m sitting here like I lost

Glover at minus one it’s not like I had 100% six of six but all my six of sixes had no one at minus two they were all minus three or better so what happens missed four-footer it was I believe data golf had it at 88% at one point to B

Minus 3 which by the way if I’m saying here’s what the cut line is likely to be here’s what it could be I don’t need you to tell me what data golf says in terms of the percentages I too have the internet and can [ __ ] look at it

Myself I understand what it is what I tried to do when I talk through those things is explain why that number comes to be or how the cutline works to people that may not know so yes I also have the internet I’ve heard of data golf I can

Look that up myself thank you very much I’m still [ __ ] pissed off because of the minus two cut line because I had one of the I had one of the best teams in the 150 and I think it would have been me and two other people with a six of

Six left and now it’s me and 35 other people I’m probably going to Min cash in the 15 and I probably would have been almost guaranteed top three in that tournament and the 88 as well uh where I probably would have had a good run at

Top five which I think is at least 5K each of the top five spots now I’m probably not going to cash cuz everyone has a six of six pissing me off sucks anyway that’s my sidebar back to the course this week where the course is this week at the American Express what

Else do we got going on here lower driving accuracy D driving accuracy can come into play a lot here especially at PGA West because Wayward drives like the roughest nothing but you start inching a little bit further away from the rough and then you got some real problems on

The Go Green regulations a little bit higher scrambling a little bit higher you can see the uh single rounds you the distribution you’re right around 70 which is two under which is you know the plurality in terms of score but you can see guys go as low as 63 64 like it’s

Not crazy to think that very small greens means very few three putts unless you’re like the guys that I bet on CU then they’ll three putt from 5et but either way um I I shouldn’t say that I have two guys inside the top I mean of the betting odds at the moment I’m

Filming this on a Saturday morning uh to get the research done Cam Davis and Chris Kirk are second and third in odds and I have bet on both of them so hopefully one of those guys can come through uh driving distance a little bit down because there are some Force layups

At this course and yeah that’s where we’re going with all this by the way I’m going to have my column in my newsletter now the newsletter is free to subscribe to then it will just get sent to you I’m going to try to plan to have it out I

Know if I want to do it on yeah probably Monday afternoon after I do the show with Jeff so if we do make any bets I can include those into the show and write those up uh for everyone to go through it but it’s completely free and

A lot of people don’t know that it’s moved off of DK Network into my newsletter so if you could share it around I’ll put the share button at the top I would just really appreciate that um just because I know that people are looking for it and I don’t have time to

Go and tell every single person who is used to finding it in one place for the past seven years it’s now in a different spot I need to figure out a way to let them know where to find the full article so the more people you could tell the

Better it off it would be for me and I would really appreciate that so thank you smash the like while you’re here as well jumping back in probably time to look at what has happened at this tournament over the past few years we have some tournament history I mean we

Have a lot of tournament history at this course again John ROM won a year ago Davis Thompson came in second Chris Kirk I mean Chris Kirk just riding a heater here maybe he can go back to back to back to open the year wouldn’t that be something Xander was T3 Montgomery was

By himself and fifth cash that each way for us which was nice last year but he he hit The Struggle Bus Midway through the fourth round before kind of getting it back together but only after he had taken himself out of the tournament Tom Kim JT Poston uh matd Schmidt very

Interesting here because Matty Schmidt had a very nice end to the season the swing season when he was playing overse seas and even there he birdied three of his four final holes a year ago to finish T6 and he entered the week with four miscuts and six starts during the

Swings so Matty schmith someone I’ve just had my eye on throughout the course of the last year or so we’ve talked about him a little bit on the show I think I did last week uh I don’t even know if he played in the Sony but he had

A bad RSM and then he went overseas and played really well on the DP World Tour but you can see he just has a lot of different spike weeks here this is the best tournament besides the barbasol he had the wide he was six at the American

Express it was his best result of last year but you can see that you know he can he can click he has no short game but as we saw the short game isn’t super pronounced at this course he was third in Bermuda as well another course that’s

A little bit shorter uh and he’s a big hitter so maybe that’s the way that he can conquer it and has very small greens as well so uh just someone to look at especially if he comes down in the pricing a little bit Scotty Sheffer uh

In his career a t11 a T25 he was cut in a T3 so good on him for continuing to come and be an ambassador for PGA West even more important for the tour because they they’re losing Farmers Insurance as a title sponsor of Tory Pines I believe next year so keeping American Express

Placated with some of your bigger names is going to be very important and something that the tour needs to get into uh at the same time to protect some of these sponsors if they want the money to continue to come in but where this is a putting con contest probably not the

Best for Scotty Sheffer he’s going to lead everyone T green this we know can he be top five top 10 in putting to go along with that it’s unlikely I mean we’ve seen him win tournaments losing Strokes putting it’s not crazy to think of but there this course is easy enough

That feels like you’re going to need to make your putts in order to be up there so to bet him outright we try to guess the odds at the end of the show I just don’t think the number for how much this how much variance in this tournament

Relies on putting it’s just and like I just can’t do it with him uh but it does seeing him in this tournament like seeing him and Ramy year ago in this tournament made it kind of crazy to think about uh when it came to bet betting the rest of the field and like

Davis Thompson and Montgomery were getting there at bigger odds but Rah in the end just ended up being the guy who won at minus 27 Rah posted a 65 or better in each of his first three rounds that just gave him enough breathing room is 68 on Sunday almost got Xander back

Into it from eight Strokes back Xander shot 62 uh at the stadium core so it’s doable and that was coming off of injury we didn’t know where his game was at at the time and he struggled a little bit through the first little bit but he

Ended up coming T3 at the course we’ve seen Davis Thompson obviously do a little bit well once again these stats are only from the stadium course so again keep that in mind so when you see that again ROM lost two and a half Strokes putting

He did shoot 65 the first 3 days two of those were not weighted at this particular course there’s Matty Schmid he’s so nice he’s in there twice has Matias Schmidt and the mattity Schmidt in the system I believe he is now just mattye Schmidt in the system uh Tom Kim

Kind of got it back together a little bit um we guess the odds I’m interested to see where he ends up coming in once we start thinking it through because when you have a sheffler and Klay and Xander in the field they’re going to suck up a lot of oxygen and hell if

Chris Kirk wins again at Sony he’s going to be like 10 to one or something crazy like that but we can’t put that in our minds our mind movies once we start doing the odds cuz obviously we don’t know what the future is going to be in

This situation Tom hogi has some decent results you can see he was 32nd a year ago um bad off the tea to kind of crippled them at the round the stadium course but as we go to like Strokes gain total of this course you can see Hollywood hogi has two top six finishes

In the past four years we’ll take a look at 2022 in a moment but other guys with at least two top 10 in the past five years you have Klay I mean SEO has a first and an 11 so we’re going to include him we’re going to include SJ as

A 10th 11th 12th 12th and 18th he’s finished top 20 each of the past five years and he was obviously a birdie making machine at caloa that might be the look for here is Sun JM I mean just first impression that’s where my mind goes hadwin has the course record at

Linta with 50 9 that was the year that they couldn’t get I believe that was 2019 the year that he lost into the playoff with maybe that wasn’t the same year because Phil lost in the playoff Phil and hadwin lost in the playoff to Adam Long of all people who won this at

600 to1 in a [ __ ] putting contest when you putt great you can you can win this tournament it can happen like we’ve seen Andrew Landry win this at huge odds we have seen uh I mean Adam long is just out of nowhere Hudson Swafford had won

This in 2017 and 2022 both at triple digits maybe not the maybe not the first one cuz he had been having some pretty solid ball striking like Reed duffner Bill hos are all winners here Johnny Vegas is a winner here it’s really tough to Peg down what type of player the only

Thing that I can think of that has a link of all these players is just aggressive at the pin that’s the only thing I can think of and it’s really hard to quantify that I guess by opportunities gained we could try that but I don’t know it’s a difficult one

Because a lot of it just hinges on putting uh putam has actually played really well at this I mean really well he’s like the seventh most Strokes gained over the past five years but he has a top 10 he’s a t24 he’s made the cut every single time not that just

Making the cut is going to do that much for you five of six if you can upload inside the top 10 on DraftKings this week can do a little bit better because all players are guaranteed three of it uh Windam Clark is in the field it’s

Funny to see him like you kind of forget that he’s a top 10 player in the world right now uh but he is up here lonto is back Taylor Montgomery good in his first start so you can be pretty good in your first start in 2022 as I mentioned

Hudson Swafford won for the second time hogi lonto Hodes zat torus Denny Klay Long Dong Paul Baron who is the French men so he the The Long Dong you know the B huh huh maybe he wins the tournament probably not Sun JM seiw Windam Clark you know kazy’s up there lipsky’s had a

Bad run of it Nick Taylor has never really been all that good at this course fena has been good he lost SEIU coming down the stretch uh Doug gim yeah this he has the one T5 but usually Pete D courses are where you want to be at with

Him Landry has a win Adam long as a win they haven’t done anything since Fowler he’s he has played well at some desert courses in the past maybe this could be another one just taking a look at 2022 though the year that Swafford won lot of irons lot of putting there’s

Your simple strategy plus dominate the two easier courses that we had on the go Franchesco Molinari was here that year Harmon also finished inside the top three that year this is I think this is the year that Rah was losing his mind uh sunjay you know TD green I think played

Better than anyone at the stadium of course he did but lost Strokes butting ditto for Lee Hodges he ended up losing Strokes buting him and B I believe or in the final group going into Sunday it was a not a ratings Bonanza in 2022 with Swafford hunting down Lee

Hodes and B going through it and Tom hogi can’t forget Tom hogi in that mix but then hogi would go on to win Pebble like a month or three weeks later or whatever it was missed out on that one too good times so that’s what we’re looking at in terms of course history

Right now I guess we can jump back over and just really do a deeper dive on the field as I mentioned we have number one player in the world Scotty Sheffer he is here he also leads all players in Strokes gain total over the past 50 rounds Klay Xander Windam Clark zorus oh

That’s why I want to do the deeper dive on Z and Woodland too uh I would say remind me to do that before I get into the modeling but you’re not actually here with me you are just listening to me in a odd parasocial relationship that

Obviously you can’t do that so I will try to remind myself I wrote it down on the sheet in front of me although see look writing it down on the sheet in front of me right now zot Taurus Woodland see how they did at Sony Open on fantasy National that should be good

Back to the screen so shefford Xander C Lake Clark zalot Taurus are your top five in their past 50 rounds Eric Cole is up there as well so was Poston McCarthy noren and the gim Reaper Tom Kim Bo Hustler Mark hubber Shane Lowry Ricky foward M Lee Daniel Burger I

Wonder when his rounds go back to so Burger hasn’t played since the US Open in 2022 so his 50 rounds go back as far is 2021 spoiler alert it is 2024 for those of you who hate calendars or time in general uh but yeah Stephen Jagger you

Know what Jagger makes a ton of birdies maybe this is finally the week that Jagger gets done hell maybe he ends up winning at Sony who knows I don’t even know if he made the cut but because I didn’t bet him didn’t really care but he has made the most consecutive Cuts he’s

Made every cut since the arbc Heritage last year and he is an aggressive player off the te or with his Roes like Hunter Mayan used to be like this I would say mullar was that type of player who’s had some good run here in the past minwoo is

Most definitely that type of player obviously we know that Sheffer is uh can’t lay can be cannot be he can adjust his game but like Sheffer has never found a pin he doesn’t want to fire at Patrick Reed was very much the same way uh Chris Kirk is kind of the same way

Min woo is that way I wouldn’t say I don’t know if Tom Kim is sewo most definitely is so sewo I mean there there’s a reason that he’s probably won at this tournament uh it rewards this course rewards shot makers and players who want to be aggressive

But it will also be very penal to people who are too aggressive but don’t have the goods to go along with it uh because then you’re propa [ __ ] as we get there and you end up having double or worse with a lot of this stuff all right so uh

Let’s shrink down the size I actually didn’t build out a model for this course so we can think about what we want to do for that um let’s just go to the Sony Open though because I want to do Sony zalot Taurus and Woodland just to see

How they did at this tournament uh so you just you have to put it back to Sony whatever Sony one that you want then we’ll go to in tournament stats and you can take a look at how the players have done you switch over to total and there

We go um you can see you know the winners right now benan uh that’s where we’re sitting right now so it’ be nice if let’s see benan could go away but not too far away because I have mon DraftKings I have an outright bet on him I would prefer that Chris Kirk or

Cameron Davis end up winning Davis has gained 6.1 Strokes putting which were all in the first round he gained zero in the second round so that’s how he’s at minus8 hopefully he got a [ __ ] together on the back nine on Friday because he was a disaster him and Rose like rose

Was so bad on the greens but zalot Taurus is the one I want to look at first so zot Taurus the approach was positive okay that’s good driving really wasn’t there he’s working through a new swing right now to alleviate some of the pressure on his back so that could take

A little bit longer to show up but a lot of this especially round one in the wi this turned either into a big driver course or a big less than driver course depending on which way that you were playing the win so we can see in round

One uh we just go to round one stats and take a look at Z so zat Taurus lost 1.5 Strokes off the T in round one gained a stroke and a half on approach that’s really nice to see so short game is going to be the rustiest cuz that’s what

You need to do competitive play in order to come back and frankly taking a look at the Sony Open it’s not that the course wasn’t in good shape but it looked like they grew up like the rough was 3 in Long like even the first cut of

Rough was you know a little bit dicey so the conditions were not as ideal and as Angelic as they usually are in the year second tournament in Honolulu like they made this tough I appreciate that I like seeing that in a tournament but that stuff comes back a little bit later

Because around the green and putting tends to be more feel than anything else this is a positive sign that he gained on Approach at least in one round let’s go to round two and see how zat Taurus did there so Z there so badon approach improved his off the tea a little bit

And all of a sudden the feel started to come back a little bit so I don’t know if I’m going to get there on zot Taurus this week you know you can never find the zalot Taurus when you need to right uh it’s a puzzle it’s a puzzle man and

You need you need to figure it out for the women and that way you know you can excite the zotor and all of a sudden he can get himself going again and he can climax the very top of the leaderboard I don’t think that the American Express is

Going to be the one for him but again we’ll continue to track his progress to see how he does so we can see little flashes little glimpses here but even gaining a stroke and a half on approach for one round in a tournament after taking such a long layoff I don’t really

Consider the hero like a real tournament 16 people like Tiger’s friends at it was a Windfield course it was a little bit tougher this year but like it’s a nothing tournament this is a real event with real rough against Real competition trying to make a cut and added pressure

That goes along with that so if we can see Improvement in the game starting to normalize a little bit that would be nice so I’m off at the American Express and it’s more of a wait and see approach once again but positive signs for zot Taurus from the Sony Open a little

Glimmer of hope from him additionally when I guessed the odds last week I took a Tony I I think I might actually have to throw in one guess for some player that people like that is so agre reges that it makes people mad on the internet

Now I was dead serious I thought that zotus was going to open at 100 to1 for the Zone open I was way off he opened it 30 to1 but here’s the thing I just figured no one would want to bet zat torus and the books would know that so

They would put him at 100 to1 that is not what happened the inverse happened they put him at 30 to1 no one wanted to bet it because that number was stupid and he closed at 100 to one I couldn’t believe it uh but that’s not where he

Opened so I was 70 points off on that and then it ended up being right at the end but I’m not guessing the end I’m guessing the openers with a lot of the stuff uh it’s funny cuz some of my openers were weirdly were players ended

Up by the end of the week I was just wrong because I had overinflated what they were going to be at open where you had Rose open at 55 and Nick Taylor open at 100 you know they Clos at 35 they Clos at 45 or 50 whatever it might be

Where I was what I thought the open would be it’s funny how odds can work that way so hopefully uh the books are very generous to us and give us a bit longer odds again this week when I go to the guesses and I think that they will

Mainly cuz Sheffer is in the field and he kind of has to be six to1 or better and once you have a player that is six to1 or better maybe three guys hovering around 10 to one or lower then inevitably everyone else just has to be pushed further down that list so that’s

Very interesting to look at to me at least so that’s what zot Taurus was up to let’s take a look at Woodland uh Woodland in round two terrible on approach lost across the board in round one Woodland was I gained a stroke on approach so that’s pretty good and then

Had bad feel around the greens it’s going to be like I have more confidence that zat torus is going to turn it around versus someone like Gary Woodland just not to say that Gary Woodland is washed but he just had brain surgery he had hip surgery the season previous he

Hadn’t really been good in basically since he won the US Open in 2019 so it’s been a while for him and is an aging player where the other one is revamping his swing is a younger player who if he could just figure out how to

Putt would be a lot better so that’s uh you know kind of my take on but Woodland you’re going to get a better odds you’re going to get better DraftKings prices so if you could figure out a way to kind of time it with him to be good uh if you

Could get him coming back that would be great uh round two sometimes I like to take a look at this I forget every single week uh kind of to do it guys who got cut but may have had a very good round too so you can see lipsky finished

At uh six overpower someone who finished inside the top 10 at this tournament a year ago gained the most Strokes on approach of anyone in the field in round two but lost 4.8 Strokes on the green and three Strokes around the green that is unbelievable that’s a that’s a case

Of God it going bads at the moment Grayson Murray I if you’re watching this before the start of round three or even after round three so going into uh the final round or the third round at the Sony Open there’s everyone in the field is at least seven shots within the lead

So a lot of players depending on where you’re going right now and different sports books where you’re betting it are offering top fives tens 20s 40s whatever I not a lot of 40s let’s be honest here top five 10 and 20 with a lot of guys I

Bet Martin trainer and Garo two guys who can get like super hot out of nowhere and I reup on Nick Taylor uh for all of those B I didn’t re I Rea on them at 300 to1 with an each way but I played the top 10 and top 20 as well because

They’re giving away like 60 to one on top 10 like these are guys that can shoot 62 not saying they are going to shoot 62 and it doesn’t need to be those players for you specifically if there are players that you like from the back of the pack there are some generous odds

Right now for top fives top 10 top 20s at the sports book going into the weekend mainly uh because I mean the names at the top the names at the top are good it’s Chris Kirk it’s Ben Anne it’s it’s Cam Davis it’s crazy Carol Juan these it’s not Scotty chef all

Right like guys can come back from the back of the pack Hideki did it or Hideki did it two years ago with the 6363 SE W did it with the 64 64 a year ago like guys have good weekends and put themselves back into contention not only

To win but really Elevate themselves up the leaderboard so that’s I thought it was a good thing to go look at at some of these deeper odds I encourage you to go do the same thing we can take a look at some of the stuff on fantasy National

To see if there are guys that can go do that now Grayson Murray who’s in fourth place probably is not going to have 6 to1 to come inside the top 10 that would just be my thought I could probably go look at it but you know what I don’t I

Can say that with a lot of confidence but there probably are guys at the back uh who can do that baa been doing pretty well Sheamus like Sheamus power is a prime example gain a bunch on approach couldn’t make a putt for [ __ ] on Friday but going into the weekend he’s you know

Seven shots off the lead now I need to take a look at draftking sports book draftking sports book just for reference here because I mean Sheamus power is a bigger name than a lot of these people who are back at the bottom so let’s go to golf let’s go to

Sony Open and this is more of just an indicator of maybe something that you can do throughout the course of the week depending on what tournament is yeah Sheamus power what is that is that a top 10 yeah top 10 for Sheamus power is 50 to one right now that’s a pretty good

Number and like if you can keep firing at these over time yeah he has a lot of work to do and this is playing as an easier course but it’s going to be a little bit tougher than it normally is like the winning score is probably not going to be minus

25 the winning score is probably going to be let’s say minus 17 let’s say minus 18 just for you know to see what we’re talking about with all of this and if it’s minus 18 he’s at minus two what does that what does he have to shoot to

Have a feasible chance of coming inside the top 10 so if he goes 66 66 that puts him at 10 under then he has no chance if but if he goes 64 64 and he finishes at 14 under that’s probably good for a top 10 or at least it’s right on the

Periphery is that worth a 50 to1 to you what if he goes 6264 or 6363 I know that that’d be the way that I look at it talented players who may or may not be in like guys that we know that historically can go low or have something popping up like good approach

On Friday going into it so that that’s just what I would look at Shez reevy was also cut gained a bunch of Strokes two on approach going into Friday who else got cut stelman had a very good approach round so did terer Callum Taran were up

There as well where was Harry Hall on this list because I know that Hall was one of them Harry Hall yeah they’re not giving as generous of odds although he’s not starting in the same spot as everyone else but 75 to one on the top

Five 22 to one on the top 10 he just he’s having a very good week in terms of um approach versus putting if that’s what you wanted to look at anyone else missed the cut here played pretty well we can take a look at the entire

Tournament as well of just the guys who got cut so most guys who got cut did not play well stelman good on approach Fitzpatrick good on approach bad at everything else the first victim of the Ander curse this year was the betting favorite Matthew Fitzpatrick

Good to know SMY just SMY was oh my God I didn’t realize he lost almost six Strokes putting and gained four and a half um almost five T to Green wow um he really took himself out of it down the stretch he three Ed the last hole to

Miss the cut and he was one of the guys who could have potentially moved the cut at one point so with senson you know the approach was one of the best in the field um so I wouldn’t be too concerned about him moving forward just kind of a

Bad go and those were all the guys that have been cut so th those were the ones I really wanted to dig into as it pertained to this tournament so what I think that we can do now is probably build out the model for the tournament I don’t have a model well

I have a model for this tournament but I don’t think it’s been good over the years so I thought I’d try to build one on the Fly and maybe I’ll rejig this in the newsletter or maybe people in the comments or in the Spotify comment section can let me know what they’re

Looking at uh this week or how they would construct a model because that’s always the fun part about this there’s no right answer when you’re trying to construct what stats and even if you construct the best stats it’s not going to necessarily lead you to a winner so

Here’s what I had previously it was just kind of a of everything so you had Strokes gained off the T Strokes gained on approach Strokes gained power three power four power five with different weights you can see it up on the screen right now sand saves at 5% proximity 150

To 175 at 10% Fairways and opportunities at 10% 5 to 10 10 to 15 foot putting all right let’s get rid of all of this just say screw it let’s try to figure out something else so if we take a look and this will be in the

Column of just how winners have done and looking at Only Winners isn’t always is the best way to go about this only because you know did they have an outlier week but if we just take a look at 20202 for example uh when Hudson Swafford won uh six of the top 10

Finishers either lost Strokes putting at the stadium course or around the green you just can’t lose in both spots all right that’s interesting to know each of the top eight finishers gain stroked from 10 to 15 feet okay I mean that’s one that’s stickier too I remember

Brandon deula and I went through that show on Mayo media Network and we talked about the stickiness of putting and where that goes five of the top six finishers gained off the tea at the stadium course Swafford was the only one who did who did without doing that

Coming inside the top six but he ran pure with the putter um at that he RPS the putter at the PGA West Stadium so again uh that’s just different things that you can look into you know C was two and a half Strokes better than anyone T degree in at the stadium course

He was also fifth in proximity from 75 to 100 Andrew Landry uh was top 12 both Tia green and putting and led the field in good drives gain so there’s a lot of different things so we need to figure out a way to put in aggressiveness into this model

Would be the first thing that I would want to look at so approach is obviously going to make a difference so we’ll throw an approach but we’re not going to wait at a ton because we’re going to use different approach numbers to try to figure this out I think opportunities

Gained is going to be the biggest stat that I want to look at if if you’re unfamiliar with opportunities gained it is a fantasy National stat that means 20 ft and in from as a birdie or Eagle chance from on the green or On The Fringe so scoring opportunities birdie

And Eagle opportunities if I could find it that would be much easier for me there it is opportunities gain so after opportunities gained we’re going to throw in that key proximity range that we looked at before that was 150 to 175 I had also made mention that 200 uh plus

Is going to be pretty key as well when we take a look at everything so we’ll throw in that proximity percentage to uh range as well and we’ll TR that’s why we’re not going to wait opportunities gain because we have these three stats which are all basically approach stats

Uh so we won’t wait that as much but we’ll give the overall waiting to approach as we try to discern between a lot of these now these aren’t long courses but because of the force layups you don’t see a lot there’s more of a broad range of wedges between like 75

And 125 yards or 50 and 125 yards we don’t really have one all-encompassing thing to take a look at that uh the power 3es we thought were important but I do want to throw in both Eagles gained and power fives very quickly into this so we’re going to go Eagles gained

Because we saw at one of these courses at least 4% of the field making Eagles uh well it’s not the best stat to look at it will give you a sense of guys that do it at a higher rate than others and maybe that’s something we can look at

More overtime that’s a better stat for past 75 rounds than it is for past 12 rounds because then it becomes more dependent on the par fivs that you’ve played over the past 12 rounds versus a larger sample which would just give you a better sense of who is good at those

Things that’s also where the mixed condition model can come into play as well where you can throw that stat over a longer period of time into the mixed condition model for that stat by itself it just takes longer to do it’s not conducive with doing a show as we’re

Doing right now um so we’re going to throw that in there Eagles game par fives gained good drives gained is the other way that we’re going to go with cuz that will give us both approach and driving all in the same so now we have these let’s throw in our putting

Stats there’s more you can throw into this but I think just on a very rudimentary level this is where I want to look and I’m going to weight putting a little bit more than I normally do I’m going to give it a 15% full witting and

I’m going to put the 8% at this 15 to 20 range or sorry 10 to 15 range so we’ll go 5 to 10 7 % that’s where where we’ll start with this new one and then we’ll go 8% for 10 to 15 this is just the

Order that I like to put them in so I can see sort of the correlating stats all go next to each other so we’re going to go 10% with approaches and I want aggression here so I want 20% opportunities gain and we’ll go 10% key bucket 10% key bucket for both 150 to

175 and 200 plus Eagles gained at 5% power fives at 5% and what do we got left here we got let’s go up I wish my mouse would work a little bit better oh we still have 25% to allocate here so there’s a lot that we can do with this so let’s go

Back down we’ll go 10 we’ll go 15% good drives gained or we’ll go 10% yeah 15% good drives gained and we’re going to put Fairways gained into the mix as well so we’ll go down to Fairways gained we’ll check that in at 5% and I believe that should get us up

To 95% so we have 5% to allocate somewhere else you know what I’m just going to bump up putting putting to 10% 10% and we’re good to go so this is more waiting than I usually give putting in any tournament however it’s a [ __ ] putting contest so let’s see what the

Results are going to be of this I’m guessing Sheffer is going to be number one and I have it set to the past 50 rounds right now and hopefully uh hopefully we can find some sleepers in the field here just basically reason not to bet Xander kley or Sheffer is all I’m

Looking for like in my mind sunj and Tom Kim seem to be the best ideas right now so let’s see Xander can’t like gim Fowler Burger now again Burger stats are from 2022 so take those with your assault so those are your top four now you have your top five sorry then you

Have Sheffer Bez Ryder and then Michael Kim coming in next with Mark hubard then you have shank as well uh coming in at number 11 here ecro who’s having a good run this week at the Sony Eric Cole Aaron Ry Ryan Moore Ryan Moore missed the cut so did chz Rey but

Chz Rey in that longer frame does rate out at number 16 I believe he has won this tournament it may have been like 15 years ago but I do believe he won when it was what the Bob Hope he came fifth the Bob Hope in 2023 the Career Builder career American Express the

American Express it’s hard to know what they call these tournaments uh when you change names and that’s the crappy part we have to kind of go he’s won The Travelers and he won the Canadian open I swear to God I thought he won this tournament now let’s see Bob Hope

Classic Wiki our numbers only go the Desert Classic is what it was called at that time maybe that’s what it’s called again who knows I thought it was called the American Express so that’s what I’m going with did he win this event chz reevy chz Rey Mike Weir Phil

Leonard tryan Vegas no he didn’t no the stats on fantasy National were correct he has not won this tournament you do see a lot of guys who play well you know he won did he win in Phoenix he went in Phoenix or did he lose to Woodland he

Must have lost because it’s only showing me The Travelers win and what was the other one he had the Canadian open win in 2008 good for him shz reevy um anyway he rates out pretty well over the past 50 rounds other guys that we can look at

I mean that’s just Strokes gain total so that’s not what we want to look at there we go uh Eagles gained over that longer train Ry in only 14 rounds I mean that’s that’s going to be one of my guys I thought I was going to go with Adrian

Dumont du uh he was terrible at the sonio but not that I’m getting off of him then we have Pearson Cy he lost to his brother this week so that’s never any good I mean God Up’s a former guy of mine but toasty just like this guy he

Was meditating on the green so he didn’t lose his [ __ ] mind when his Partners were playing slow I want to see him lose his mind semi Kawa actually playing quite well too at the Sony different course obviously because driving does come more into play here uh but Matti

Schmidt up there in Eagles minwoo up there in Eagles Vegas who’s a former winner here is up here in Eagles Lee Hodges up in Eagles and other guys finished top 10 or top five at this tournament in the past so again different ways that we can take a look

At this past 50 rounds wise I want to shrink this down to past let’s go past 12 and just see if we can catch lightning in a bottle with anyone then we can look at the rolling report uh to see if any more names pop up but I know

I do like seeing the I do like seeing toasty up there to begin with so past 12 right now what do we got going on here why don’t you load past 12 in the custom model that’s what I get when the servers are updating and trying to do

This let’s see Burger number one over the past 12 rounds Sam Ryder okay Poston Hadley ends up there as well so Cole along with Xander kley and Sheffer no surprise gim Ben Griffin the smother man uh great from these key proximity Rangers in the short term so so maybe

Not as sticky as maybe we think Lowry Damon stupid Damon uh Rio his I’m going to learn how to say his name for next week that’s going to be a goal of mine to learn how to pronounce that last name uh but our guy Ryu H uh

Continues to be up there he too made the cut mattye Schmidt uh now in the short term up there as well lindheim eot so let’s see Montgomery e root toasty Jagger these are the sorts of guys that I probably want to go to this week Matty

Schmidt from the lower end I don’t know they’re going to get outright bets from me uh with the strength at the top of this field uh Nasty Nate Lashley is another one to look at I have no idea how he has been doing but just generally

Guys that play well in Phoenix play well in Desert Golf uh Nate Lashley tends to be one of those guys was 10th in Mexico no idea how he did it the Sony I suppose that’s something you can look at yourself when you take a look at the

Sony and how is he done at the American Express the amican express miss the gut the Desert Classic all right we’re not even doing that I wonder if it is actually called the desert I’m pretty sure it’s still called the American Express has to be I don’t know what

Wikipedia is up to weird old Wikipedia uh rolling report is the last thing that I want to look at before we guess the odds on this one and I want to take a look at the custom modeling again you can go in and build I did that last week

I I would actually like to have some feedback I mean the feedback that I got on that was very positive uh I released two newsletter updates last week and that was just to test out to see if people actually like the different things but I think I put in like eight

Or so different views from fantasy National know Cory courses recent form custom model different courses to put together different skill sets to put together and put them all into one mixed condition model to see what it said uh I don’t know if people like that column or

Not um if you did let me know if you didn’t let me know as well cuz I don’t want to waste time on something that people don’t actually want to see if it is something you want to see more of just please let me know and that’s

Something that I can try to put into the mix maybe for larger tournaments or Majors whatever it might be uh I’m just looking to try out some new content it’s 2024 uh we can’t just do the same thing every week in perpetuity we need to try

Different things out that is one uh that you know I had a lot of fun doing on a Tuesday night maybe I won’t always have or a Monday night sorry maybe I won’t always have that much time on my hands but I I had a lot of fun doing the

Research it was an important part of my process this week and I’m having I’m going to have a good week it’s just how good of a week am I going to have depends on where those guys finish at the very very top of the leaderboard um

Anyway if you like it let me know uh you can always reply to the newsletter when you sub to it uh you can tweet at me you can leave it in the comment section the Spotify comment section wherever it may be so here’s our rolling report so the

Best player over the past eight rounds again Burger’s numbers are from way back Xander Klay Tom Kim Shane low Smotherman Sam Ryder Ryu Matthew NE Smith another guy who could have moved the cup but didn’t that’s the shortterm that’s who’s looking good and you can

See guys over the long term are still up there Smotherman gets a lot better uh once we shrink down the sample size you know Ryu n Smith and Kirk ditto for them getting a lot better norin Damon Baden Hout all get a lot better shorter term than they were longer term Landry Vince

Wy Chad Ry and mattye Schmidt also are ones that do well ditto with Taylor pendrith uh now let’s kind of do the inverse of that let’s go and look at past 100 rounds to see who’s a little bit worse now you can see Tom Kim although over’s past eight he’s great

Past 12 that’ll be we’ll use past 12 as the sample size here versus past 100 so he’s 46th in his past 12 he is fifth over the past 100 rounds so keep that in mind has won Desert Golf um in at the Shriners uh too I mean the

Past two years so should be a good look this week and you might get a decent odds break on him because of some of the other players that are in this field who else has fallen zotus has fallen Justin Thomas has fallen who was 10th down to

55th Fowler 11th past 100 84th past 12 SMY 12th to 79th that should update with his good approach stats seiw 16th to 148th in these key stats um we’ll see how he ends up doing with the Sony he’s in the mix reevy falls down a little bit as well so does Chris

Gup Nick Taylor Adam hadwin Lee hod it’s funny all guys that play generally well at this tournament so it’s funny to think about in that way well it’s time for everyone’s favorite part of the show it is guess the odds for the American Express this week I have it separated

Into two categories we’ll try to do this in real time and adjust it a little bit as we go along the first two that I wanted to start with were will zotus and Daniel Burger I have zot torus 75 to one maybe that’s going watch this be too

High this time watch it be 100 to one but based on where the market wanted to put him versus where he ended up I think they’ll overinflate him then bring him back throughout the course of the week so 75 to1 open for will zator in my guess at least Daniel

Burger 200 to1 I’m guessing it might be even beyond that like we haven’t seen the dude in 18 months uh coming off of back injury it’s not a great spot to be if you’re Daniel Burger so I’ll say 200 to one so I think there’s a big three

And then a big part of a big eight in terms of the betting odds although some of these guys could blend together so you have Sheffer Xander and Klay as your big three at the American Express I’m GNA say Scotty is 5 to one Klay is nine and Xander is 10 now

Because I have all those guys at 10 or below that does give us a little bit of breathing room with the next set of guys so I’m going to say that Tom Kim is 18 to1 sunjay is 18 to1 praying that both those guys cross 20 if they both cross

20 they’ll probably be my two bets for the week Windam Clark I’ll have at 25 feno I’ll have at 25 uh Sam Burns 28 to one Ricky Fowler probably a bit more down I’ll say 35 for Ricky no one bets it and he falls into the 40s but I’ll

Say he opens at 35 to1 Chris Kirk again I’m doing this before we know the conclusion of the Sony if he wins at the Sony he’s going to be like 15 to1 16 to1 something like that I’ll say at the moment uh if just say he has a doesn’t

Win but finishes top five at the Sony I’m going to say that he’s 28 to1 because he’s he’ll have a win a top five and an excellent record at least a year ago or at least within the past three years at PGA West so Chris Kirk will

Stay at 28 to1 Lowry playing for the first time this year will open at 35 to1 me Woo Lee who had the win in Australia and then had another top five in Australia to close the season getting his first start has played some good Desert Golf in his past I don’t know how

The books are going to treat him I can see him opening a little bit higher and then getting beat down right away I’ll go 40 to1 and if it opens there I will probably bet him see wo Kim the winner in 2021 we’ll say 45 to one for SEIU Jason

Day we’ll say 35 to one and then Eric Cole I can’t believe Eric Cole is a part of this conversation but he continues to get boosted by the odds that are up there I’ll say that Eric Cole opens at 45 to1 the same as SEIU probably the

Same as Denny McCarthy and that style of player as well so to recap The Big Three Scotty at five Xander at 10 can’t lay at nine Kim and M Tom Kim that is 18 to1 and 18 to1 Clark and feno both at 25 Sam Burns at 28 Chris Kirk at 28 and you

Know what I’ll actually say rck Ricky Fowler 30 uh just cuz he’s Ricky Fowler and people love to bet on Ricky Fowler obviously the results of the Sony Open and guys playing in both Fields may impact that but I’m not from the future I cannot possibly know that but here we

Are thank you all for watching the research show uh become a member at Fantasy national.com right now fantasy national.com Mayo to get 20% off i t told you about the shiping nation draw for a free membership for the year you sign up with any of their golf programs

Right now and use code Mayo you get 10% off a and then you get put in that draw as well we’re announcing the winner on Tuesday you can smash like sub to the channel and that will do it for me sub to the newsletter because that’s where

The column will be with more of a concise version of what we just talk through plus even more and some visuals to go along with it and the bets that we do that will do it for me tune in Monday with me and fineberg I’ll see you then experience experience