Join professional golfers, Alex Blickle and Justin Bates as they discuss the top bets and DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) plays to breakdown the betting slate for the 2024 Sony Open. Get exclusive insights, expert analysis, and valuable tips to help you make informed decisions and optimize your fantasy golf lineup. Don’t miss out on this comprehensive preview that will enhance your golf betting and DFS experience!
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What’s going on everybody welcome back to Prov proo we had an awesome first week on tour it was a great tournament all around got the Benny on each way hit we have a big giveaway to announce today as well so gonna be a really exciting show lots to dive into Justin how was
Week one for you well just missing a Min cash and DraftKings but outside that I I had a decent day as far as or decent week as far as matchups go um it was fun to see it to to see the golf tournament play out uh definitely some impressive
Play by a couple of people and then you know Kirk being able to finish it off the way he did um I think it’s gonna be a fun year I I actually didn’t miss the John John ROM Rory stuff as much as I thought I might yeah I agree I think it’s because
We got such a quality golf tournament um which hopefully look that that could be the case throughout the entire season right we’ve got a lot of really young exciting Talent on tour so maybe we won’t miss Ramen and some of these other big names as much as we
Think but maybe once they get back and and we see them like at the at the Masters and everything we’ll say oh there’s a reason why we used to love watching these guys so who who knows exactly how we’ll feel about that but we got the Benny on each way hit really
Clutch stretch down the end of that tournament from Benny he went birdie birdie eagle birdie then lost one on uh on 17 should have gotten up and down for my next to the green but then make makes the clutch 10 fo birdie putt on the last
For the full each way so that was a really really exciting and fun way to start the season do you think it’s a sign of things to come for Benny this season I do I I think that he’s since the beginning of last year he’s done nothing but Trend the trend the correct
Way and I think he’s figuring it out um and he can I mean just kind of like he proved this week he can just make birdies and bunches they just I mean once he gets going it’s just it’s really impressive the shot I mean he’ll hit
Really good shots close in the mix of making some 15 to 20 Footers too the last time he lost Strokes off the team in an event was at the Val bar last year March 19th so it it’s been a really really impressive run off the te for him
He’s so long but then also super accurate off the te we know he has one of the world’s best short games the iron play is starting to become a little bit more consistent and then don’t look now but in six of his last seven events he has gained Strokes putting I don’t know
If that can continue but if it does watch out yeah for sure um I think the other thing about his iron play is he and he chips it so good is he he’s starting to miss the ball in the correct spot a little bit more yeah um and just
Kind of figuring out that side of it I think that helps a lot and goes a long way I I love that point because it it brings us right into one of the big takeaways that I had this past week at the Sentry something to keep in mind in
Years moving forward now we already kind of knew this with our our course fit model but around the green played an enormous role at the Sentry and and I think it’s not just the skill of having like a really strong short game but as you said it’s about missing in the right
Spots leaving yourself doable up and downs and most people when they think about around the green play they probably think about you know getting up and down to save par when you’ve missed a green but at the centry around the green play really comes to the Forefront
When you’re trying to make birdie so on the on the 14th hole where you’re you’re driving the ball you know close to the green a lot of the guys were were taking it left to avoid the potential danger just keeping in front of the bunker now
You have a 40-yard pitch shot out of the tight line in the Fairway and Benny on hit it to like a foot twice or something like that and he just made it really easy on himself if you look at the top of that leaderboard Chris Kirk sou
Theala Jordan spe Benny on sunjay Brian Harmon even sheffler Jason day Xander shafley around that top 10 and you know you get kind of a wide range of talent in that group of players in terms of you got some really strong iron players some not so great iron players some are great
And long off the tea some are short and not so good off the tea the one thing that all of them have in common is they all have really really solid short games so it’s one of those skill sets that I think is so often overlooked by the
Field by our field I should say by by the industry yet it’s it’s such an important skill and then there’s also some very real important signal in strok skin around the green about just course management missing in the right place all that good stuff so I I think around
The green play continues to be one of our big edges here and not just that but also the ability to chip it to the stress free zone right where you just kind of go up and tap it in it’s not con you know there’s some guys that that
Chip it really well but it’s like a ton of three to five Footers which you know you and I both know can can lead to high stress levels and even if you’re making them all like it’s still you’re worried about every single one of them um it’s taking a lot of
Mental energy to to make all of them at the very least yeah no doubt about it yeah it’s good I I I’m excited about to see what Ben on does and especially when we go to these other courses where um so I we’ve talked about this a bit
Last year do you think Benny on benefits on on greens that are like that that are a little bit more undulated where you kind of know what the ball’s doing whereas this week we go to a course with a little bit smaller flatter Greens in my opinion you have to hit better putts
Because the greens are going to be a touch slower and you’re G to have to hit your line a little bit better and they’re not going to be just kind of like a hit it out here and play the just kind of let it feed in type of putts
Maybe uh to be honest I’m not sure because one of the reasons why he’s putting better is he’s made this putter change and and so what was true for him in the past I don’t know if it will be true for him in the future like I I think you would
Probably agree with this one of the reasons why a player might be really good on Fast greens and not so good on slow greens or vice versa has to do with their putting stroke their their Tempo or you know is it a short and choppy stroke like Brent sneer or is it fluid
Like all just body rotation like myself for example where I am much better on fast scens because I don’t want any hand and wrist involvement I just want to be able to rock my torso back and forth so when you get on slower grains and you
Have to hit it harder you can’t just use your torso and that makes my stroke a little bit worse so I don’t know where Benny’s at now with this new putter but it absolutely could be the case yeah I just look for for guys to make the better Putters a guy
Like Denny McCarthy on greens like this that where you have to hit just really good solid puts um the other thing is and I think that some of the guys that that used on the top 10 bet they benefited from hitting the ball a little bit more above the hole which people are
Going to be like oh why would you want to hit it above the hole well it’s one less thing that you have to worry about is getting it there right so you’re just kind of feeding it in rather than like you know somebody that hits it 15 feet
Right below the hole if the greens aren’t fast and they’re a little bit slower like they were last week then you have to hit really really proper putts to hold them yeah being being above the hole has has lots of benefits when it’s not crazy
Fast so you you get a lot of golf courses on tour especially where you hear like oh guys have to keep the ball below the hole this week and some of the time it’s definitely true but there are also times where no guys are going to actually make more putts from above the
Hole one of them is kind of like hitting downwind instead of hitting into the wind if you’re slightly offline the slope of the green on a downhill putt just like the wind on a downwind t-shot is actually going to like almost push it back online whereas when you’re into the
Wind or uphill and you’re slightly off line that slope wind is going to push it more offline yeah and so I I think there’s a lot of factors that that go into that and um you know it’ll be it’ll be fun to see we’ll see what happens
This week it’ll it’s definitely for as similar a place they are they’re very different golf courses speaking of putting uh Scotty Sheffer apparently hasn’t figured it out yet he had one of the strangest weeks putting it was like the ultimate speed experience where he was making a bunch of putts from
Distance in in round four alone he made putts that gained half a stroke eight Strokes eight Strokes half a stroke half a stroke those are really solid putts to whole he also missed putts that lost him a full stroke half a stroke seven strokes seven strokes half
A stroke half a stroke a third of a stroke so he’s making putts that he shouldn’t and he’s missing putts that he shouldn’t and he missed so so many of those throughout the week do you have any idea what going on with him so I think a lot of times and I
Think he’s going through this right now is he’s committed to the process and and I think that eventually like when he gets better with that process the short putts I and I think spe is like this too you heard kizner go come on dude it’s three feet just knock
It in um I think that you know there’s a point when they get so technical with these short ones that they miss them and I think that if they would get more athletic from 5et in in and then stick to their mechanics on the longer ones
Then I think you’ll see a little bit of benefit from that but I think you know hats off to to Scotty to really sticking to what he’s trying to get done I think he’s looking to the Future maybe more than he is like right this second with
Some of those so um I kind of like what I see that being said I I think that the short ones you know how much I can’t stand the myth of the short ones like I think that shows how good of a putter you really are so hopefully he uh can
Get a little bit more athletic and just and just start knocking those in like Kevin was talking about on the broadcast yeah to to me it seems it seems pretty mental for him where he makes such solid stable putting Strokes confident committed putting Strokes from that 15
To 25 feet range and then he gets in there and it just seems like there’s no confidence but but speaking to kizner he was pretty good in the booth I thought it was a a really refreshing change of pace he wasn’t afraid to kind of make
Digs at the players and and make fun of them in a like self-deprecating way instead of the the azinger and even going back to Johnny Miller where it’s like it’s just so condescending and it’s like oh I never would have made that mistake it’s like guess you would have
Asinger you were not that good so yeah I I I really enjoyed ker I don’t know what you think yeah and I think golf needs some of that to be honest and I saw somebody somebody put something on Twitter about golf needs a like a Pat McAfee type of announcer and I think
Kizner can kind of lean that direction you know he’s kind of got that same type of mentality um you know we played some minior golf together early 2000s so uh you know I’ve been around him a little bit and he’s kind of a what you see is
What you get type of guy so I think it’s really good that that he what he’s doing I I like that he’s genuinely funny and he doesn’t have to like try to make specific jokes he can just be himself and and will be entertained for sure
Yeah I I think it’ll be gri spot I I think he still plans on playing quite a bit though right I don’t think that’s a g yeah he’s playing this week um all right before we move on to this week in the Sony Open let’s talk about the
Giveaway so we wanted to do something to offer something that not many shows can not many people can in our space so what’s a really unique giveaway that we can give not many others can one winner we’re going to have two winners One winner is going to get a short game
Lesson from Justin that can be putting it can be chipping Bunker play whatever you want it to be the second winner will get a long game lesson with myself again whatever you want it to be irons full swing what distance off the te whatever you want so two lessons for free for two
Winners we’re going to announce the winners in a couple weeks this week’s the Sony Open next week we get the American Express the following week is Tory Pines the Farmers Insurance open on that show for Tory Pines we will announce the two winners which what you
Have to do to be eligible to win you have to like this show on YouTube you have to like next week’s show on YouTube you have to subscribe to the ftn uh YouTube page you have to follow FN Fantasy on Twitter and then follow myself at Alex ble1 and Justin on
Twitter as well that’s it that’s all you got to do Justin what is your Twitter handle for people to find you there it’s j it’s j Bates golf so it’s j batore golf it’s pretty easy even though it has I think has a picture of me at Pebble so
You’ll be able to pick it out pretty quick beautiful so hey if you want to drop comments as well on the YouTube show maybe we’ll give you bonus points or something like that give you an an extra entry that we can draw but those are the the necessary qualifications to
Get you in the draw two lessons one short game with Justin one long game with me it’s gonna be really really fun we’ll find a Time throughout the year to do those probably do those like through Zoom or through Google meet something like that uh we might have you send you
Know video for Justin might want video of your short game or I I’d want video of your your swing so we have something prepared going in to really help you guys out but that’s going to be a really really fun type of giveaway sign uh to do throughout the season we might even
Do more if this first one’s really successful so and even and if you’re if you’re local here if whoever wins is local here to the Dallas area I don’t mind having you know having you out for nine holes and work on it that way too so there’s a lot of options here and
It’ll be fun to do um I think Alex and I kind of enjoy doing this kind of stuff too so it’s not a u you know we love to kind of help and use kind of the knowledge that we’ve we’ve we’ve gained over the the years and and if you win
And with whoever wins the my side of it if you decide uh you know you don’t really want short game help or anything like that we can also do just some course management stuff too is kind of my specialty I think so we can work on
That as well so yeah it’ll be fun and it’ll be really good awesome yeah I I completely agree it’s it’s really fun giving giving lessons and just kind of talking about the game of golf there’s I I always find like no matter what kind of lesson I’m giving there’s always like
One nugget that the the person is just like oh my God it just becomes such a light bulb moment for them like oh if I had just known this for the last two years I would have been so much better it’s that’s always a fun moment to have
But yeah let’s jump into course fit now for the Sony Open here at Yi last year we got the seaw k outright hit here so we we’ve got we’ve got to uh to back that up to kind of have a repeat of that success and it all starts with the
Course fit understanding why seu was able to win last year and to me the the main reason is because this course demands kind of a strong allaround golf game every single aspect of golf is really predictive here there is an added emphasis on iron play but you have to be
Good off the tea you have to be good around the greens you have to be able to putt and you really have to be good with your irons what is it that you’re looking for at this golf course and why do you think SEI Wu was such a great fit
Last year and is he gonna be that good of a fit again this year uh yes absolutely he’s going to be that good of a fit in my opinion I think that he has the maybe one of the best all-around games out there when his mind right um
So I think that’s the biggest deal is is if if he’s if he’s definitely into the week and and and goes out there believing he’s the one to beat I think this is another great week to go back to SEIU um you know I I love the idea of iron
Play here um the greens are definitely smaller than what we saw last week a lot smaller than what we saw last week um a lot flatter and so if you’re hitting your iron good you can really be aggressive here and make a lot of birdes uh you can
See and it’s kind of evident by if you look at the past scoring of the winners you know you have some some mid 20s winners and then you have all the way down to cam Smith won it like 10 or 11 under a couple years ago so if you get
Some you know if they get the golf course a little bit firmer and then also the wind kicks up I think you’ll see a little bit higher scores I haven’t really seen anything on what to expect this week and I think that I’m going to kind of approach this way this week two
Different ways I think there’s a couple of guys that their price is just too big and then I think there’s a couple other guys that I really think are going to play well here it’s it’s it’s a really interesting field because we have the the quote unquote best player just the
Guy with the highest Baseline expected Strokes gained as Russell Henley so in that sense you’d say oh man what a weak field like this isn’t that strong but it’s a really deep field in terms of guys who are close to Henley so some really interesting uh simulation results
For us this week and and for those who haven’t really heard the spiel about the simulations basically what we’re doing is we’re we’re taking advantage of the variance in golf right so there are so many people who will Who will say ah you know I know that this guy’s good and I
Bet him because I know he’s good but he he didn’t he didn’t win or he he didn’t do well and and I can just blame Varian of golf It’s So Random what we’re trying to do here is harness that Randomness and use it to our advantage certain
Players are more volatile than others so you can take two guys with very similar skill sets if one is high variant and one is low variance the high variance player is much more likely to win because when you win in a golf tournament that’s in and of itself
Unless you’re you know Tiger Woods in his prime a low probability outcome so we’re trying to figure out the guys who are most likely to get that low probability outcome in which case variance actually helps so the guy with the highest win probability this week Justin I I know I’ve already told you
Who it is but would you have ever guessed that he was first uh before I told you or would would you have guessed that he was like maybe in the top 10 of win probability I think I guessed 10 times and I didn’t get it right so if
That does anything um no I mean the answer is no I I mean I can see it but um yeah I I mean like I said I tried to guess and I couldn’t figure it out so I’m I’m trying to really quick bring up exactly where we have him in the um
Expected Strokes gained category and he’s he’s up there so uh the answer by the way is sahit thala he is our most likely player to win this week we have him winning 4.6% of the time he’s third in our expected Strokes gained uh here with 76 expected
Strokes gain per round so again you know like last week we had Scotty Sheffer over two expected Strokes gained per round so it’s a big drop off at the top which also then helps these guys but we have so many like bunched together near the top here that it’s kind of no
Surprise that the one who’s really coming to the Forefront in win probability is not the guy who’s at the top in expected strok gain it’s the guy who’s closest to the top and also the most volatile which sah theala certainly is from one event to the next so sah
Theala we have 4.6% to win his odds 33 to one give a win probability an implied win probability I should say under 3% so we are seeing a ton of value on this hit theala outright here we also show a lot of value on his eway so we have him at
16% for a top five and uh with the eway odds that’s just a a really strong value shout out to Josh col by the way our other uh main analyst here at ftn for both ftn bets and ftn da he not only had the Ben on each way he also had hit the
Gallas each way so a double each way hit for uh Josh to start the season we really hit the ball running here in ftn and uh we’re going right back to the theala well this week yeah and I think that you could also um speaking of going
Back to the to the same well is Chris Kirk as you know is I I generally go away from back-to-back winners I think it’s probably one of my golden rules is I tend to fade the guy the next week um I don’t think that applies here I think
Chris Kurt comes right back with another good week I’m interested to hear your thoughts on JT Poston uh he’s actually second in our win probability odds he second in our in our expected Strokes gained projections this week we have him at 4.2% to win he
Is uh at the exact same odds of say theala 33 to1 is the best available however with theala you can get him 33 to one on BET Rivers where we get each way bets we also can get him at 30 to1 on bet 365 which has slightly different
Each-way payouts I actually prefer the bet 365 each way payout it’s a quarter of the payout for five spots so if the player is 100 to one and he finishes top five you get paid out 25 to one on bet 365 it’s the exact same pay that we had
On BET rivers and bet 365 last week but at the bigger events bet Rivers jumps to a fifth of the odds for six spots so this week it would be a top six at 20 to1 on uh on anyone at 100 to1 so whereas theala we get 33 to1 on BET
Rivers 30 to1 bet 365 on Poston it drops down to 28 to1 on both bet rivers and bet 365 at those odds are you still interested in an each way on JT post uh I’ll be honest anytime that we get a what looks like it may be a JT Post in
Chalk week and everybody’s talking about him I’m going to going to lean away from him I want to get I want to get get somebody like that when nobody’s talking about him you know some of the bigger events the players might be a good place
To to to think about playing him um but with all the talk about him I think I’ll probably just stay away um obviously on DraftKings I just I just think that there’s way too much uh being said about him and he’s just going to be I don’t know I just don’t think
That he deser he’s deserving of being any kind of favorite or even in that in that favorite conversation I think I’m with you but for a different reason which is I number one I I believe so incredibly strongly in our models I think uh I think we have
A fantastic track record like winning over 200 units on outright bets last year to know our model does a pretty damn good job of predicting winners but I also think it would be a mistake to not also let the market in form us just a little bit theala his best available
Odds anywhere are that 33 to one on BET rivers with Poston we’re able to get 33 to1 elsewhere so I want to respect the market that’s saying hey 33 to1 is out there maybe I don’t want to go all the way down to 28 at least it shows that
There’s not as much value on BET rivers and bet 365 even though that’s where you can make the more preferable style of bet with the eway at both of those those books so I think Poston is a fade for me what I will really look for is you know
Maybe instead of throughout the week most of the time we see books move the odds towards each other a lot of the time that will be you know B MGM and FanDuel moving posting down from 33 to 28 like lots of these other books have sometimes though it could be bet Rivers
Andor bet 365 moving him up to that 33 to1 range and at that point I would probably take his each way so uh you have to just kind of tune in the Discord and our bet tracker at ftn bets.com to see if I end up placing that bet on
Poston the second bet that I have this week that I’ve already made is on Will’s Alat Taurus and uh it’s actually it was actually Justin who who pointed me in his Direction so I was looking at our Sim data on zotor we have him winning
3.4% of the time finishing the top TW or top five 12 and a half percent of the time to be honest I kind of looked at that and I was like you know what he’s not going to be at good enough odds to bet that so I I didn’t even look at his
Odds and then justtin tells me uh that he’s he’s priced well I go to our prop shop and I see he’s 55 to one on FanDuel 50 to one on bet 365 so I took zalatoris on bet 365 with the eway I love that bet uh th this just seems like it’s priced
Where he can’t possibly be the player that he was before the injury yeah it’s and that’s what I was talking about earlier like there’s just certain guys in this field that are priced wrong um in my opinion uh and zotor was the first one I noticed it just
Doesn’t I mean he obviously he didn’t play very good at Tiger deal he had some woses with the Putter and all that stuff um I wouldn’t be surprised to him just going back to being his old self and and go back to be a really good putter from
10 to 15 to 20 feet and sure it doesn’t look pretty up close from three and four feet but they they still went in so I’d like to see him kind of go back to that and if he does we all know what he’s capable of ball striking when he’s
Healthy and I think he’s healthy he wouldn’t be he wouldn’t be going all the way to Hawaii if he wasn’t healthy so um to give what I would call a top 10 or top 15 player in the world these kind of odds at at this golf tournament just
Doesn’t make sense and it goes back to what we we talked about last year you always want to be ahead of the curve on somebody and this is a great spot to be ahead of the curve on zotor y yeah for for some additional context here at 50
To1 his implied win probability is just under 2% we have him at 3.4% to win with the each way bet the odds of a top five implied for him are 7.4% we have them at 12 and a half percent so just like with the gala we’re seeing a ton of value on
Zot Taurus the other thing with zot Taurus here is there’s plenty of room for like you know what maybe he’s not quite back to who he was but he doesn’t need to be the full golfer that he was prior to the industry he just has to be
Close to that to show some very very real value uh here on that eway bet so uh I I have two bets so far this week I love them both good chance that I’ll add more but uh really really feel good about the card so far yeah I I love
Zotor here the um the one guy that I kind of wanted to talk about that I think is is going to have a good week and a lot of it goes I kind of go I listen to interviews and I watch you know the way people are carrying
Themselves and understanding the game um I’m a big fan of Harris English this week I think you can get him around the 30 to1 Mark as well um he he was talking about how good he’s been driving it and and if I’m gonna lean on anybody at that price you
Know if they’re talking about how good they’re driving it I love it um he said he didn’t take much time off I’m a big fan of that you know and he he’s he stressed that he knew the the West Coast Swing was big you know to
Get the the year going so I’ll really like the his opportunity to play good this week and then the other guy that I think is too high that just the price is too high is matama I know he hasn’t been in great form but he has the ability to be
A top 10 player in the world too he’s he’s showed it before you know the mid-30s to 40s um wherever he’s at right now I know it’s pretty high he he he’s just a better player than that he has more Talent than that so that that’s
Kind of where e this week of those two kind of mid-price guys matama such an interesting one uh I was I was actually hoping that we would get even better odds on him he was he was near the worst player in the field just by his score at the
Sentry he was last in putting by over half a stroke per round so it’s not like we we can then say you know oh that putting doesn’t matter at all he he might come back and gain this week or we should expect that to like be completely
Thrown out the window but we also shouldn’t expect that much of an outlier outcome uh and and there’s also the you know the idea that putting performance is that bad kind of spiral right so you miss a few from short now you’ve lost your confidence you miss a few more now it
Seeps into your long game you get to start fresh the next week if he makes his first like six foot putt or makes his first eight foot putt that can completely change uh how he feels about the putter in the week if he starts putting well on day one maybe that leads
To more confidence in the long game so I I’m I’m with you on mats Yama in the sense that I think his range of outcomes is even wider than just his you know simulated range of outcomes because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding that putter right now and the way it’s
Affecting every other aspect of his game yeah and then I would the other guy that I’d like you to look up for the eway stuff is Keegan Bradley I know it’s really really high and he’s another guy that just pure talent alone if he continues anything of
What we saw last year in this field him contending would be no surprise 60 to one on FanDuel that’s a lot higher than I expected him to be anywhere 50 to one on bet 365 all the way down at 40 to1 on B Rivers so this is he’s one of the
Wider spreads from one sports book to the next so if you just wanted to bet him outright 60 to1 on FanDuel or take his ich way on bet 365 purely because some of these other books are saying he should be between 40 and 45 I don’t think that that’s a terrible strategy uh
To take in PGA certainly no no one will be surprised to know that you know we we feel pretty good about Kegan this week we’ve got him at 2.8% to win so I have not placed this bet yet I’m going to place a bet on Keegan I I just need to
Dive a little bit more into the numbers to determine am I taking that 60 to one number on fandel and just going for the win or am I giving myself that that top five out uh with the 50 to one number on bet 365 if I had to guess right now I
Would say I probably lean into his volatility and go with that 60 to1 number again we have him at 2.8% to win at 60 to1 his implied probability is 1.6% so over a full percentage point there uh of value so I I do I do like that kicking bet I’d probably take the
61 on F do you have a lean there do you want the each way or do you just want the better number I think with Keegan he’s one of the ones you just take the better number personally was what I would do um I he’s just not one that and and
Generally speaking like from his career If he if he does finish top five it’s kind of a backdoor top five right he’s out of contention shoots like eight under the last day and somehow finishes I like how they finished fourth where’ that come from yeah for for some
Additional context there um in terms of event to event standard deviation I mentioned earlier like one of the reasons why say the g is first in our win probability is because he’s super volatile his event to event standard deviation is 1.46 Strokes we have Keegan at 1.48 so
If you’re wondering why we’re always betting Keegan when he sucks so often it’s because we’re embracing that volatility for him he can dominate an elevated field like he did at The Travelers last year and then he can also look like crap in a fairly weak field but when you’re betting an outright
There’s no difference between a Mis cut and third place if it’s the pure outright so I think I’m with you that 60 to1 number on FanDuel is probably the one that I’m going to hit uh I will put that in the tracker as soon as I do in
Fact by the time this show is live that probably will be in our tracker over at ftn v um do you have any like super long shots that you know you’re going to go way down and look at I was close for whatever reason my brother’s favorite
Golfer has been Johnny Vegas for like the last 10 years don’t ask me why I don’t even think he knows why uh it’s it’s almost been a bit of his he doesn’t even watch a whole lot of golf but Johnny vas he will tune into anytime he’s on the front page of the
Leaderboard um we have Vegas at 1% to win his implied odds are around half a percent so maybe I’ll pull that trigger but to be honest I feel like we might have Vegas a little bit overprojected just because uh when he’s come back from that injury it’s been really bad he lost 3.7
Stroks per round in in a Mexican event and then on the Euro tour or the the DP World Tour he lost four and a half Strokes per round and was cut after two rounds so I don’t think that I’ll be betting Vegas but we’re showing value
And one thing we know about Vegas is he can be pretty damn dominant off the te so another really vital guy the ceiling is there yeah I I got two that I kind of like that I’ll lean into uh Patton kazy is showed that he can play well here um
Another guy talking about how he’s driving it the best he’s ever driven it uh he’s conditional so he’s got to get off to a good start this year I think he finished 129 or something last year 130 range um and I remember the interview he was pretty emotional about it so he’s
Got a track record here he can play good um and it’s a big week for him the other guy that I want to lean into is kind of the same take that I if you guys remember I had on Min wo Lee last year at the players and that’s playing will
Gordon in a field like this um everybody talks about how straight you have to drive it well will hits it forever so he can hit you know three iron to where a lot of guys are hitting Three Wooden driver two and then also if he if you
Catch lightning in a bottle where he’s just hitting the driver really good he has a huge Advantage yeah I I I like this call and I almost think even if you’re looking at wi gorn’s data and you see absolutely no reason to bet him here Justin’s track
Record of buying low on players before they erupt is so damn good that you can just blindly bet this one 350 to one at uh at Caesars and at DraftKings 2700 to1 on FanDuel 200 to one on BET Rivers where you can get in each
Way I I don’t know I I feel like going from 350 to1 to 200 to one is a sin and of itself but do you think that maybe it’s worthwhile just to have that extra probability of being right on him and or not extra chance of being right on him
But the extra chance of being paid off for being right on him if he does end up contending and it it might be a spot where it I can’t do each way which suck I wish I could but um that being said it might be one of those spots where maybe
You split your units up and and and give you know have have you know a half unit on the outright at 350 and then another half on the you know the 200 just in case that way you’re kind of cashing in both ways um I just I just think that he’s one of
Those guys that has the talent to do everything that needs to be done to play really good golf and this is a place that it m doesn’t make any sense right to the analytic side of of why he should play good but it’s like I said it’s just
Like men Wei at the Players it’s almost The Identical situation to me one of the other things that you could do is you could bet him at 350 to1 and then go play him on DraftKings where he’s only 6,500 he’s certainly going to be super contrarian this week do you have any
Other like First Look clear Targets on the DFS side of things this week no I think that I pretty much covered all I think that this is one of the weeks where I’m kind of Gonna Roll with the same thoughts for DFS that I have for um
For the outrights and the betting side of thing where you know where you can get guys a lot cheaper than maybe you’re going to be able to get them uh in the future you know for instance a guy like will Gordon it’s at 6,500 I think but you
Know you play a bunch of mid-range guys and you play him and you’re like man my whole week you know this is kind of my make or break what am I going to get out of my DFS week because if he plays good you know he’s going to be super
Contrarian low owned and he can kind of carry me and then the other side is if he MC’s and trunk slams it and I’m you know then I’m trying to Min cash again Cameron Davis was one of each of our favorite picks last week obviously played pretty damn poorly uh he made a
Number of doubles and triples on a golf course where very very few people were even making bogeys uh in most of their rounds so uh it was really encouraging to see him play so well in the final round shot at nine under uh 65 or eight
Under 65 are we going right back to him because he’s at a pretty nice price 8,500 like you could start with a really Bal bed build here with Ben on SI Kim Cameron Davis something like that is that something that you’re really interested in doing this week or are you
More likely to go studs and Duds uh no I I like the the I kind of like the idea of the the middle of the road build um so I I played a lot of guys in that 8,000 to 9,000 range and then you know with with Will Gordon at 6,500 you can
Pretty much build out your whole line um I’m going to go back I’m just going to go back to guys like Kirk and Eng I on matama in that group um the one person that we haven’t really touched on that I think could could light it up this week
Is Denny McCarthy just because if he gets the putter going he kind of showed signs of it last week and I I think that this golf course is just a much better fit for him yeah I like the call I mean certainly this one’s a better fit if for
No other reason than last week putting was not predictive this week putting is predictive and when Denny does well it’s it’s going to be because of the putter so I I’m I’m with you on Denny a little bit there that that entire range is really intriguing and you get like
Keegan Bradley uh Luke list is down at 76 so um lots of our favorites in this field to be honest this is a this sets up nicely for an ftn Classics type of line um let’s move on though one of the most exciting things that we’re doing
This year is Justin and I have a joint entry in the big giant pet Mayo one and done contest I’m guessing that it’s full by now but it’s worth checking uh to see if you can still get an entry in there if not you can follow along with Justin
And I all season as we try to win that big I think it’s like $80,000 up top for first place so we’re gonna chase that one together um Justin why don’t we talk through some options and and before we even get into specific Players let’s talk a little bit of
Strategy for everyone else who’s in this contest maybe they’re in their own one anddone contest it’s one of the it’s the first event of the season so we want to get off to a hot start but we also want to get off to a hot start in a way that
Maybe not everyone does so do we want to get contrarian here and then the other thing is are there is there any type of player that we maybe want to say you know what maybe it’s a good spot for them but we want to save them we want to
See if what if you know two months from now they’re one of the better players in the world um so let’s talk a little bit about strategy what type of player are we looking for here for our oneandone entry so I have a couple of different
Thoughts on how to do this I obviously want to you want to roll with a guy that’s playing good in my opinion um I think that the super premium guys are the are the guys that you want to get at contrarian times right so you
Want a sheffler pick on a week that not everybody’s on Chef or and he wins if that makes sense so I think you know the other thing that interesting Dynamic that we have this year is guys that are uh live guys that we’re going to see
In the majors that we don’t have to worry about so basically you’re going to circle ROM and say okay which major are we using John ROM for right because you’re G to use him for one of those four so that’s not a great time to be super contrarian in my opinion that’s
Literally let’s just pick one and and look at the golf course and that’s where we’re going to use it in fact I would say we have three of the four majors already taken one of them is going to be John Ron one will be Brooks kepco one will be Cameron Smith
And then let’s see if Dustin Johnson can get in any kind of form and show something this year and then if he does he’s probably the fourth major so like it it’s we we have that pretty much set up I think it’s awesome that you and I
Both agree on that to begin um and then yeah we like we want to use the best players in the elevated events where the where the money is because it most one and done leagues including pet Mayo league is going to work where you are getting the score like your
Score in any given week is the amount of money that your player earns so if if you take Fitzpatrick this week and he wins and then at the first elevated event he gets third or second you were better off taking him at that elevated event than than here at the win for the
Win so uh just another wrinkle so I I think my biggest thought is when I’m looking through the player pool this week I want to take a guy who has very real win equity this week but I don’t want him to be somebody that two months
From now we might be looking at and saying hey he’s got a really good chance to win this elevated event so for example L goar does do I think that he has a good chance to win this week yes but do I think that two months from now
We might view him as like 3% to win an elevated event whereas we have him at like two and a half percent this week yeah so I don’t want to take a or Oar um I’m kind of torn on thala theala could be someone who breaks into that tier I
Think the the main other one that I know I don’t want to take even though I like his chances this week would be Wills allures where he could end up being one of the favorites in an elevated event I don’t want to take him now as a result
Um what do you think of those two guys do you agree with that line um 100% agree uh I want to see what we’re going to get out of zotor and watch him come into form I still would like to find a way to use him when maybe nobody else
Isn’t on them and maybe try to get ahead of that deal I just don’t think this is the right time to do it I think um you know I think that that that would imply for a lot of those guys that have been proven winners right um you
Know a guy like Keegan right there’s going to be a point where you’re gonna see him especially when they get to the Northeast and and when he really starts playing well and yeah um yeah matama same thing I want to be the head of the curve because I think he’ll figure it
Out this year but I don’t think this is the right place to do that do that because like you said he could finish third here in 10th in an elevated event you’re going to get the same amount out of them one of the ways that we can potentially gauge ownership is I think
Ownership will in large part reflect the outright market and then it will also or will also reflect DFS pricing or DFS ownership I haven’t run the ownership projections yet so Justin and I are not going to finalize our pick on the show we’re going to talk through I think I
Think we decided we’re each going to like nominate two players that we can talk through and then event will pick from um the the first guy for me that I will nominate is JT Poston we talked about not loving his outright at the number but it’s a high enough number that I
Don’t think many will take so we he’s second for us in our expected Strokes gain he’s second in our win probability he’s also only $99,100 on DraftKings I think there’s a chance that he’ll be really low owned and I don’t think there’s a chance that you know two
Months from now in an elevated event we’re gonna be saying ah damn it wish we could use JT POS in this week so he’s my first option here yeah and I don’t mind that um I think that all the data proves that he can play good here um I think
The only thing that would lean away from that is how much the market is talking about JT post and in every single anything you read he’s you know he’s pretty much on the list of people to talk about so that would be so when we when we have DraftKings ownership
Projections up like if he’s 25 30% all of a sudden I would look at that and say okay one of the reason reason why I’m taking it is because I think his odds and his DFS pricing might make him a contrarian option if all of a sudden
He’s 30 35% on DraftKings I no longer think he’s going to be a contrarian option and he would go off my list so uh love that point you just made and it’s one of the reasons why we’re not going to make the pick just yet on the show
But we are going to talk through all these options here yeah and then so we’ll go to the first one that that I would that I talked about nominating and that would be SE wo back to C after winning here last year and that we were
On him last year here um there’s a couple reason uh he played last week and I think he was truly using it as a warm-up event he really likes this golf course he enjoys being out there the u i do question whether we could use him in an elevated
Event later in the season because I think he has the talent of once he gets going um the the angle of my main angle here besides how well he plays here is when he has a baby in February or March is he going to be focused on raising a
Kid for the rest of the year and do we does he want to get out to a hot start here or the other side of that is we see a lot of people that once they have a kid they settle down and and tend to
Play better yeah I I think I would lean so number one I really like this like I obviously like him at this golf course we hit the outright on him last year he was 50 to one at the time I think this field is maybe a little bit stronger
He’s not simming that well for us because his event to event standard ation is actually really low like when we think of cukin we don’t think of somebody that’s super consistent but that’s exactly what he was last year um you and I talked a ton last year about
The fact that we both believe he is the talent to reach a new height in golf so I might be a little bit inclined to hold on to him just because I do think there’s the chance that you know late in the year he’s hitting his stride he’s
Becoming the golfer that you and I both think that he can be in which case maybe we would want him at an elevated event or you know it doesn’t have to be an elevated event late during the season maybe it’s one that we think he’s like
The favorite at late in the year when not many people have him left so I would lean towards not going there just yet but I also have no problem going there at all so he’s very much in the mix for us um man the next guy for
Me I think it’s gonna be Benny on to be honest I think we’re we’re I I’d be very comfortable going right back to him he’s definitely some who we probably want more at a golf course that rewards length but I think everyone is going to
Feel that way about him I love the form he showed he was phenomenal in every aspect of T green this past week I love the fact he’s actually putting really well like if if three months from now he’s he’s almost the opposite of the guy we’re trying to avoid this week whereas
Three months from now I don’t necessarily think we’re going to be saying he’s a favorite or near the near uh you know the top of the board in an elevated event but there could be the chance that two months from now he’s completely lost it on the greens again
We want no part of him so maybe we should take advantage of the fact that he’s actually rolling The Rock really well right now he’s driving the ball extremely well like I said earlier he’s not just really long off the te he’s actually quite accurate off the te uh
Good throughout the bag as we said you need to be here at this golf course so the fact that he’s putting well right now it’s almost reminiscent of SEI Wu last year where SE is a guy who often time struggles on the green he was putting it well last year he putted well
In that event last year at the Sony to win maybe we get a very similar performance from Benny on so he’s gonna be my second candidate here yeah I I I I would tend to lean that direction as well I think he I like a guy that’s
Coming in with some confidence and I think he’s got that right now you could kind of see it in him as well is that he I think he he’s believing that he’s a contender every week now um yeah and and he’s another one that I don’t think that
We kick oursel for saying hey you know I wish we would have still had him for an elevated event so I I can get behind on for sure and the other thing is we’re going to talk about four guys there’s a chance that we kind of kick around these
Other guys that we have talked about and we end up in a different direction not necessarily that that’s gonna happen the only other guy that I I mean I love like the English go back to Chris Kirk I like those plays but I think if I had to
Single one out um I would try to be contrarian on one of the best players in the world and that’s Hatton I think it’s a great Golf Course for Hatton I think he’s going to go super low owned um and that’s really all that is is if I can get a guy
That I think is gonna be that’s one of that’s the one of the most talented players in the field and you’re going to get super low ownership on him I’m G to lean that way it it bothers me that he hasn’t won in I think over a year so
It’s been a while but he showed some flashes of hitting some really good golf shots last week and I think that his score maybe even wasn’t as good as how how how good he played I I like this call um the first thing I’ll say is you know the very
First point I made about course fit this week is you have to be good in all four categories off the te approach around the green and putting I’m not sure there’s a player on tour who exemplifies that more than Hatton he is just solid in every aspect he doesn’t do any one
Thing fantastically well like he’s not the class of the world in any one category but if you just look at like what is every player’s worst skill set his worst skill set is probably better than 99% of golfers in the world so uh or 99% of tour players obviously it’s
Better than 99% of golfers in the world but I so I really like hatton’s fit in that way the one question I have is what makes you think that he’ll be a really contrarian option this week do you think people are just going to save him for
Bigger events yeah I think that I think that they’re gonna they see him as a as a one of the better players in the world and I think they’re going to use him for elevated events um and once again we gota wait and see what ownership does I
Think his draftking price all of that will will maybe tell us a little bit more of that that’s just my opinion is I think that he’s going to go overlooked I think that people that would play Hatton will go up to Fitzpatrick and then if
You you know if you have no interest in in Hatton you’re going to go down to like the Poston um area that’s like I said just my opinion of being contrarian here uh um and I just think he’s Uber talented uh the other the other question that we
Haven’t really discussed as far as doing this is in the one and done do we have to think about guys that maybe will go to live and if so I would put him on that list with like a hind and some of these other guys like we need to try to
Use these guys before they maybe make that jump that’s an interesting question um to be honest I don’t know the the logistics of whether or not Liv is still trying to poach certain certain players or like what what time frame if they do poach a player when when would they do
So I remember last year like there was a hard cut off where they said okay we’re done for the year like this is what we’ve got for this season this is who we’re riding with I don’t know when that was I can’t remember um it’s probably something that we should we should have
The answer to by next week’s show and we will uh but until then I think it’s a good point um I I really like this hat and call I think if we if we end up agreeing that he’s going to be low owned really wouldn’t be surprised if we go
With Hatton good way to start the season and and like you said I I never think that his win percentage is going to be so high in an elevated event that we’re kicking ourselves for not being able to use him he’s he’s always one of the better players but I feel like he’s
Always one of those guys who’s more likely to get a top five than a win in those bigger Fields so this is the kind of field where his win Equity really shines through so I I like this hat and call uh to recap we’ve got JT Poston SEO
Kim benon Terell Hatton as you said May maybe we go elsewhere but I I wouldn’t be surprised in fact I think that our eventual oneandone pick is going to come from these four so uh if you want to take one of these four go for it if you
Want to take you know the discussion that we had the the philosophy that we put into it and apply to somebody else by all means do so but uh let’s hopefully get off to a really good start here in the one and done season Justin this has been a really fun show thanks
Everybody for tuning in and we will catch you all next time for
