UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev v Walker Every Fight Predictions, Tips, Bets

Andy gives his predictions, tips and bets on UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev v Walker.

Introduction 00:00
Felipe Bunes v Joshua Van 00:30
Tom Nolan v Nikolas Motta 02:30
Westin Wilson v Jean Silva 04:17
Farid Basharat v Taylor Lapilus 05:36
Marcus McGhee v Gaston Bolanos 07:36
Matthew Semelsberger v Preston Parsons 09:32
Andrei Arlovski v Waldo Cortes-Acosta 11:54
Phil Hawes v Brunno Ferreira 13:36
Ricky Simon v Mario Bautista 16:42
Jim Miller v Gabriel Benitez 19:08
Magomed Ankalaev v Johnny Walker 21:30

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UFC Fight Night ank live and Walker we’re going to break down all of these fights it is the night before the fights we’ve already lost one of them boy poor poor Manel cop just couldn’t make weight said he had a virus said it was a couple weeks ago and just couldn’t make weight

So that fight is off other than that I think we made it through unscathed so let’s get into the fights I’ll have a promo code for you guys here in a little bit on a discount on a 30-day pass start with first fight fipe bunes versus Josh

Van so bunes is coming over from LFA and I got to be honest I’m not really impressed with what I’ve seen from him and there’s there is one thing that gives me a little bit of pause on this one but I just I don’t think his

Striking is that crisp he can have some unique punches and some unique strikes but I just don’t think he looks strong I don’t think he looks powerful little bit lanky um um I mean look look you know three and four let’s be honest three and

Four in his last seven fights so I just don’t think he’s that great and I think Josh van is is pretty good in terms of this matchup he’s the rightful favorite um you know coming off of a couple wins as zus zumula no surprise loses a split

Decision and then uh gets a nice win against Kevin boras but I would have like to seeing a little bit more aggression from him against boros and maybe try and get uh The Knockout but so what what my my pause and why I’m not completely jumping on Van here is this

Guy’s had a year off he was supposed to fight zalas but you know it it just didn’t happen and then the bondar fight it didn’t happen as well so there’s something about these guys that when they take a year off they either look bad or they look really good it’s like

Okay have they worked on something um have they gotten better in the gym we’ve seen these uh UFC debutants look surprisingly good like way better than in film so I’m not ready to pull the trigger on Josh van just yet I do think he wins um based on the film that I’ve

Seen but at this point I am just not willing to to lay money on Van so this fight is going to be a pass lean van but um uh it it wouldn’t surprise with bunes kind of surprises people like if he’s got a lot better in the last year so uh

It’s going to be a pass but ever so slight lean to Josh van I will not be betting this one Tom Nolan Nicholas ma if you don’t know who Tom Nolan is if you didn’t watch Contender Series this guy is an animal comes from Australia and man he’s just a

Whirlwind uh incredible cardio really strong striking pushes forward and does not stop and he looked great in Contender series gets a really early uh knockout and rightfully gets added to the UFC and he’s going to take on Ma here who I this is not a good matchup

For him so I mean we had the the the weird match against Trey Ogden where gets ruled in contest but Trey ogon doesn’t punch that hard his Jabs were getting through and before that just gets torched by Emanuel Torres I mean that was just an absolutely brutal knockout wins against Cameron Van Camp

Van Camp’s not in the UFC not a UFC Cali Rider and gets knocked out by Jim Miller so uh Ma’s chin is going to be tested in this one Nolan is the right full favorite I think if you’re wanting to take Tom Nolan cuz now Nolan’s close to

Minus 300 at this point you could take Nolan knockout at a much better price because I just I don’t see this fight Going the Distance I like this fight maybe like under two and a half rounds I know the line is uh that the books give

You is uh under one and a half I think under two and a half could be a really really nice parlay piece cuz Nolan’s got the power and he’s got cardio he can knock you out in rounds one rounds two and I just do not trust the chin of of

Ma to hold up here so Nolan’s the pick by KO um if you you know case Ma’s got a puncher Chance in This one maybe you could take the fight not to go the distance under but Nolan is the pick uh unders and maybe Nolan by KO will be the

Way to go after this one uh Weston Wilson Jean Silva not much you can do about this fight uh Jean Silva’s getting close to the minus 1,000 and rightfully so he should win a really really good good fight against Jos on Contender series if you go back and watch it man

That was a man was that a really really good one he beat up his opponent so yeah it goes down to the decision but he put some big time damage on there and he got Weston Wilson who I I mean just got got worked over by breedo he just doesn’t look that strong

On the feet he’s going to be taller I guess his only path to Victory is if he can somehow get it on the ground and get a choke in in there um I don’t know like if you’re looking for really really big odds plus money I guess you could take

Weston Wilson I personally will not and at the same time there’s just not much you can do um not much you can do with this fight I even even Silva like inside the distance is like minus 750 so it’s just that you’re not going to get much

Value with Silva uh in your parlay piece um there’s it’s it’s Jane Silva but uh I don’t know what you can do with it with a betting from a betting opportunity so up next we got Fred bosot and Taylor lapolis I’m a bosot fan I’m a fan of

Both of them I just love how crisp they are I love their fight IQ I I thought him getting the finish in round one against Clyde and Rod RZ was cson Rodriguez was a really really nice kind of big deal for him to finally get

A for any BOS to get a finish in the UFC so nice win against Black Shear before that and then uh takes out Rodriguez so when you watch it’s amazing how much those two the bosra brothers fight like they just look the same they fight the same their

Mannerisms their movement is the same so I I just I think he’s going to win uh kind of on the feet and he’s fighting lapis who um I’ll pull up lais uh lapis’s page here so you got him who you know this is a guy that back in 20156 fought in UFC okay

His last fight against uh kyin lockin I just wasn’t that impressed like okay pretty decent takeown defense and pretty decent striking and this is just such a massive step up for him and I’m not really sure that his offense can get going against bosot I think BOS rat’s

Going to just do what do what the BOS rat’s do they control the pace uh he’s going to look for takedowns but even if it stays on the feet he’s going to be quicker I think he wins the standup battle and even though some of these basharat victories don’t look like oh

Super dominating oh not flash knockout they’re just so smart so smooth so technical so crisp so I like bosro to win I think it’s you know it’s going to be it’s going to be by probably by fight close to minus 300 I think it’s a good

Parlay piece I like uh bosro once again here so I’m just going to keep keep taking these BOS Rock guys until they get big step UPS in competition so uh yeah the BOS Rock’s going to be the one for me Marcus McGee and gastone Banos so we look at uh

Banos he’s 7 and three um but it’s it’s a little deceiving because this guy has a lot of Muay Thai and kickboxing fights on his record and that’s that’s what he is and we see him you know he he lost in in Bellator and you know he does get the

Win against Aaron Phillips that was a nice win for him what I like about him is he’s going to be the quicker and the better striker in this fight I believe I like Marcus McGee he’s tough he’s durable uh he’s done what he should do in his last two fights which is finish

Journey Nome and finish JP Bay I know JT Bay sucks but he did what he supposed to do which is which is get the finish I just think this is a pretty big speed disadvantage and I like blanos to win this fight as the underdog here so McGee

Um I B’s weakness is going to be his takedown defense but if he’s fast enough and can deliver the damage and slow McGee down McGee is not the fastest guy in the world if he can slow him down with the Striking and avoid that early taked down I think he can extend this

Fight and win it on the feet I I also like um that against Aaron Phillips lano’s had a little bit more gas tank left so maybe he’s he’s got a little bit of a cardio Advantage so if we’re looking at underdogs I I I I like Balano

Here over Marcus McGee I like McGee I think this kind of a a tough matchup for him now if McGee shows that he can take him down the first round forget about it it’s going to be McGee all day but I’m going to take Banos to kind of whether

The whether the the early storm lay enough damage use his speed uh circling around to stay out of the danger area for McGee um so I’ll take BL as a little sprinkle here uh on the underdog Matthew semelsberger and Preston Parsons very very close odds I believe at the time of

Recording this sulsberger is going to be like around the minus 130 Preston Parson’s plus 110 and I like Preston Parsons in this one so he’s 10 and4 as a pro and this was a really tight matchup against Trevon Giles it was a really good fight before that you know Evan Elder he gets

The win before that he does he did get knocked out by Daniel Rodriguez but this is Parson is going to push forward and he’s going to try and push sbles Berger up against fence he’s going to try and take him down he’s going to want to wrestle he’s going to want to clinch

He’s not going to want this to be an at range you know kind of rangy you know kind of fight because I think that’s selberg’s big Advantage here in this one and he’s going to do it right off right off right as soon as the fight starts I

Really think he’s just going to push forward and try and get sulsberger up against the fence and if he does and he can take s Burger down what we’ve seen from semi the Jedi is that he can get taken down um Jeremiah Wells took him

Down you know he loses to to to AOS medic and he gets the win against Jake Matthews but he also lost to Alex morono this is three out of four fights he’s lost and when he gets on the ground he doesn’t get finished but he also you can

Just hold him there for a while I think this potentially could be one of those really boring fights where Parsons is just able to hold him up against the fence stay away from that you know from a big shot from sulsberger and be honest suberg hasn’t been showing his power

Like in a while what’s his last wi Martin Martin Sono who got that fight just because his buddy was on the card like and then Jason wit who you know my 13-year-old dog’s got a better chin at this point than Jason wit does so I don’t really I don’t really believe in

The the big Power of seml Berger I’m pretty surprised that he’s the favorite in this one and we’ve also seen sulsberger have cardio issues I think Parsons is going to have the advantage here uh in forward pressure he’s going to have the advantage in the taked down

He’s going to hold sumburger down and I think he gets the I think he gets the um the decision win here I’m not sure he’s going to finish on the ground but uh I’d be happy to sprinkle a little bit of plus money on Preston Parsons in this

One next fight Andre orlovi and Waldo Cortez aosta Cortez aosta huge favorite here here I listen Andre olowski keeps getting these fights uh but we we’ve been saying this might be the end of Arlovski for a while but I just lost to dant Del Mae lost to rira De

Lima um barely squeaking by against Jake klier and Jared Vander so this is Waldo Cortez aosta all day um and you know he’s such a big favor but I did look DraftKings has him um inside the distance atus 190 which I think is just a really really awesome price on that

Like our last has been finished twice once by Dante Mae so I think Cortez a Costa can absolutely get the finish on Arlovski who just seems to at this point gas by the second round so we’re looking at Cortez Costa he’s he’s coming off of a knockout win and even though he didn’t

Finish Sherman or Vander he does have a finish on Contender series he lost to Lima and I mean listen Chase Sherman and Jared van obviously they’re not the best in the world but they do have better cardio than uh than Arlovski so I think this is

A really really nice match for uh Cortez a Costa to get a win and the only way you can play it is inside the distance which I would feel fine um with taking that based on what we’ve seen I mean orlovski just keeps getting these fights keep keeps getting these paydays there

So more power to him love him he’s obviously a fan favorite but this is aosta all day I think he melts uh the older Arlovski so all right guys I told you guys there is a promo code we’re going to go over you use the promo code

Lang 3030 $100 off a 30-day pass uh we’re off to a blistering start in 2024 already 21 units up uh we’re up 91 units in 2023 all sports nice to have UFC back as part of the Arsenal so um this weekend we’ve got a 5% NFL play

That is up and we got a UFC best bet that is up and if you want all plays for All Sports all percentages use the promo code lang3 $100 off a 30-day pass if you guys have the domestic books a lot of our plays come from the domestic books

It is a really really good thing to have the next 30 days because we have the Australian Open which we are big big tennis betters and we’ve been number one at wager talk uh for a couple years now and especially at the tennis major so a

Lot of plays getting ready to come out over the next couple weeks especially the first part of the Australian Open so make sure you lock all those in use the promo code lang3 $100 off of 30-day pass Andy Lang at wagertalk.com all right moving on to Phil Haw and Bruno

Ferrera so obviously we got to talk about Phil HW and his lack of chin at this point and I mean just he gets he’s just getting knocked out here guys his last three losses have been knocked out and then you know we we cashed I feel like I’ve had really really good success

Betting against Phil halls and then on Phil Halls like bet bet like Chris Curtis was like really really big surprise but then came right back bet on him big against Darren WN against wi and then I mean deled and uham alov those were just easy Fades of Phil HW I don’t

Know if I’m GNA fade Phil HW but I am going to take this fight as a parlay piece under two and a half because you got Bruno Ferrera who’s name’s Hulk for a reason so he is just full of finishes none of his fights have been to the

Third round and we saw him last last fight against Nur sulan just terrible strike defense he gets blasted gets finished on the ground and he doesn’t have very good ground game at all we’ve seen that be a weakness of his so there’s a chance Phil HW maybe just

Tries to implement the wrestling and if he does get it on the ground I like d her even more because I think Bruno Ferrera is going to be a fish out of water and I think he’s going to get exhausted trying to wrestle with Phil HW so you

Got Phil HW who if he gets chin checked at all if Ferrera lands one big shot clean night night it’s over and at the same time if Bruto Ferrera gets on the ground I think Phil HW finishes finishes him on the ground so um I I know the

Books have it at minus one and a half if you have other parlay pieces I like the minus two and a half I like to give myself just a little bit extra time in the fight as far as who’s going to win oh I don’t know I guess I go with fera

Just because of because of just the chin of Haw and how how bad it is right now man so it’s a I I guess FR is the pick but more more importantly you’re just looking at unders in this one uh for the odds and everything considered Ricky Simone is my favorite

Pick on this card against Mario Bautista and this is this is an interesting matchup just for me personally because I’ve had a lot of success betting on both of these guys and we’ll start with Ricky Simone um I loved him as an underdog against Jack Shore that was a

Really really nice cache and he showed his power and this is a guy that hasn’t really been known as a striker but uh his striking has gotten a lot better and he hasn’t lost that chain wrestling so I I really like the evolution that he’s had um amazing fight against Yong song I

Mean Yong song’s a you know guy that’s a top three fighter in the division so I mean he went five rounds he showed his cardio he showed his toughness he landed he landed good shots so striking continues to get better and this just feels like a massive step down in

Competition off of a loss I mean this guy was beating you know you know beating Keller her and a sunow and uh Jack Shore loses Yong song and so he’s going to implement his chain wrestling and that pressure I think is just going to be way too much for Bautista so when

I look at Bautista we’ve been making money on him but let’s just be very honest about who Batista has fought okay Brian kellerer not the guy it used to be Bonito Lopez a realtor greo gennetti older than me and Deon blackshire on like the shortest of short notices and he barely barely gets

The win there and now he gets to face Ricky Sone who’s had a full Camp there’s no short notice there’s no there’s no gimmicks with Ricky moan I just think this is going to be too big of a step up for Bautista my guess is Bautista loses

This one and then makes some adjustments in his game and comes back and wins a couple more fights because I do think he’s talented but come on Jay p j j perin Brian Keller realtor old guy short notice like this is this is the real deal and I think Simone’s going to kind

Of kind of realize or kind of make him realize he’s he’s stepping up in competition and he’s not getting these easy fights anymore so I like Ricky Simone it’s around minus 180 right now um that’s a great parlay piece cuz I think Simone wins um I think he’s just

Going to be too much it’s going to be overwhelming for Bautista uh Jim Miller and Gabriel Benitez interesting fight here you’ve got Gabriel benitz who’s 35 years old coming off a win against it’s it’s really weird fights Charlie alas before that David anama and Billy Q so

He gets the really really nice ground and pound finish against altoo not really sure how good onos is probably not too good so you got to give him credit cuz he did he did take you know did finish but then so you got two losses then a Lo a win to Justin James

Okay but then loss to Omar ales and sadik YF so kind of hard to tell what his uh you know level of competition here is and we got Jim Miller who obviously Legend 40 years old we want to try and get him to uh UFC 300 if you

Didn’t see the the video of what what he wants at UFC 300 it’s amazing I loved it uh if you haven’t seen that video just look it up or what his one request is if he fights at UFC 300 so he’s got to make it out of here without a serious injury

So um he’s coming off a win against Jesse Butler who had no business being in the UFC tough loss against Alex Hernandez and then uh Nick knocking out ma Cerrone and Eric Eric Gonzalez so I think this one’s just going to take place on the feet

And I think one of them gets finished I’m not sure who gets finished but I would take this fight to not go the distance both these guys are getting up there in age I they both of them are tough and I they have okay cardio but we

Really haven’t seen him and I think one of these guys is just going to get a little bit tired and I think one of them is going to get caught if it gets down on the ground it’s going to take a lot of energy and it it may just be there

Might be who gets the Tak down in round two or three and ends up on top um it’s not a strong play I cannot pick uh the winner here the the odds are just really really close so a sprinkle on this fight to not go the distance might be good

Because we know Jim Miller still has knockout power and we know uh Gabriel Bonz still has knockout power so both these guys showing off their power um I think it could be finished on the feet or on the ground cannot pick a winner in this one so just take the under on this

One uh we got rid of uh Nicola and cop and we got one last fight to break down so if you guys could hit the like button for me please really helps the algorithm out and leave me a comment tell me what your best bet is uh on this card and

Let’s talk magamed ankle and Johnny Walker ankle the huge favorite probably the huge favorite because we got a really good Glimpse as to what aolv can do with Johnny Walker in the last fight so aai was able to get Johnny Walker down here’s my concern I

At like it’s just I just I every time I watch ankle live I just want so much more and I just like it just feels like it’s very clear to everybody that’s watching what ankle live should do and then he just doesn’t do it like you’re you’re watching him and you’re like you

Keep you keep getting kicked in the leg can you check a leg kick or can you I don’t know switch stances or like okay this guy has no takedown defense can you just take him down and hold him down there like you just look at some of

These you know he he gets the the the draw against Yan um you know and he gets the decision win so I guess who am I to say he’s not doing things right but it just feels like he could be better and he leaves the door open for his

Opponents it’s just his opponents haven’t stepped through that door so you get Johnny Walker who um you know the knock on Johnny Walker used to be his chin but uh I mean let’s listen he he’s gone three FES in a row where he has not been finished so I’m not really sure

That he’s uh still has that reputation so The Accidental knee it was pretty bad but what was interesting was ankalia was letting Johnny Walker get up so he gets the takedown and then Walker’s like already standing up before the illegal knee comes angel I guess is a is a

Parlay piece but it’s creeping up to the minus 500 and higher and I don’t know if I can I don’t know if I can take is a parlay piece because Walker does have knockout power and eolive I just don’t trust I know he’s won all these

Fights in in a row I just I don’t trust him especially at this at this price so the main event is going to be a pass for me um the odds have kind of taken me out of you know out of kind of out of the

The range here but if you are somebody that’s looking for you know an underdog or you like higher price I think you could do a lot worse than Johnny Walker with with some of his power maybe he catches ank aive but um you know at this

Point I think it’s ank aive or nothing and so for me it’s just going to be nothing so um all right guys that’s going to do it for us for UFC Fight Night uh if anybody wants to join us we’ll be on the YouTube channel take down live we’ll be watching all the

Fights live we’ll do some infight Wagers hopefully if we get good opportunities you can join me there so um uh I actually don’t have a I said this on the road to Millions I actually don’t have a co-host tomorrow uh Corbin’s out of town uh Jim’s out of town Nathan’s out of

Town so if any of the takedown Live Crew wants to join me uh just leave a comment or hit me up on Twitter CU right now it’s just me uh doing it by myself so uh but good luck guys leave me a comment and good luck on all your plays and we

Will see everyone next week on another UFC video breakdown