Sony Open Picks & Predictions: Best Bets, Bombs, & Bargains! ⛳️

Ryan and Andy find themselves back in Hawaii for the second leg of the Aloha swing and the Sony Open. They’ll talk about about the course, the odds, and the STATS THAT MATTER, model the tournament live, and go over who they like this week.

0:00 Intro
8:00 The Course
15:55 Building the Model
36:20 Betting this week

Sony Open Picks & Predictions: Best Bets, Bombs, & Bargains! ⛳️

Hey everyone welcome back bets spts golf 2024 Sony Open Championship preview is this a championship I don’t know is a Sony Open preview here as always with my good friends Andy Moler how you doing today bud good yeah first uh full field event first cut still in Hawaii but

Another very fun event and yeah you’re gonna get to see some of your some golfers for the first time this year some golfers you haven’t seen for a very long time in I own like nine Hawaiian shirts so I feel like an for two weeks in a row I’m wearing just like a

To be fair it’s snowed overnight we got a heavy same uh dusting of snow a little worried about school being a pain in the ass and calling off but so wasn’t filling the wine shirt instead I went with the uh you know the North Face sweatshirt getting this warmed up but no

Ed uh it’s another another event that we get to have the later tea times so we get the evening golf because again no Thursday night football college bowl games are over I’m not going to sit and watch NBA on a Friday night so it’s nice to have some golf to watch in the

Evenings and like you said this is a an actual event a real event it’s actually funny this is actually the same reason I wore the shirt today is because I got the window open it’s actually snowing still and I wanted to just feel something I feel a

Little bit of golf Vibes my like golf guys trip is kind of coming together for uh you know later in the season this is actually a team event shirt from a couple of seasons ago uh at Hilton Head so I wanted to bring some like positive

Golf is around the corner vibes for us here in the in the northern Midwest where you know we’re getting pummeled today so I’m trying to feel trying to feel the Vibes a little bit so but yeah we have uh what 144 in the field we have

What 20 of the top 50 in the official world golf rankings whatever you make of those these days uh but we do have you know an interesting course with some guys that don’t come here very often especially at the top of the board which I think adds a little bit of an

Interesting uh you know piece to kind of handicapping this event because really the top of the board is you know the elite class as we typically see but these guys don’t typically make their way to Walley uh and Walley is a place that’s using you know data golf’s got

Some great tools I know our guy Justin Ray has tweeted out some stuff like the sometimes course history is a little bit noisy but in terms of like predictable outcomes second to Augusta National is walleye Country Club so I do think it matters a little bit of familiarity here um so that’s that’s

Kind of an interesting thing that we could talk about when we look at the top of the board too want to remind folks that uh look you can go to bsur golf.com we’re really excited about the uh rabbit hole we had a customizable golf stat database uh in the works over the last

Couple years it has taken a significant turn with all the work that we’ve done in the off season and I feel like if it’s something that you have not had access to in the past or you’ve not seen any of the tweets from us or from our

Guy um PJ splitz 101 on Twitter Ron claw uh who has been you know massive massive help in the background you’re going to find some stats um some filters some things that you cannot find anywhere else uh if you were looking to handicap or play DFS I think you need to check

That out we have a great deal with our partners over at Vivid picks again you can head over to the side your your mic just went it did the thing where I can’t hear you anymore noen you can’t hear you okay I’m gonna no every time we do a show this happens

To you maybe other people can hear you I don’t know maybe it’s an Andy problem feel like he can’t hear me either because he just keeps talking this is uh not making for good oh just open an ad on my phone um yeah n Nan’s mic died or something

Again he’s uh he’s a little older than me so Tech doesn’t know us come his way but we’ll figure it out I don’t think he can hear me either maybe he can now um but no uh probably start digging into the course here soon but we’ll bring up

We’ll bring up the tool we’ll put it on the screen like we did last week we’ll build a we’ll build a live model I already built my custom uh kind of course fit model for the week it’s on the site if you are subscribed you can

Find it under the expert expert uh what it’s called expert rankings I just saved it as you know the Sony kind of a course fit one again it’s not something you want to use for hey I should just bet on all the top players although I’d be

Curious to look at who my top ones were last week in fact we’re going to do that I can hear you now um yeah you started talking Ryan and it just went to hell I thought I heard you clap or something I just what’s that can you hear me now

Yeah the the worst part look at you the whole time you know the the worst part is that yeah you just kept talking because you couldn’t hear me tell you that I couldn’t hear you yeah you know I’m professional you think we would learn we get get better

At this but uh Hey anyway course history what do you think about course history Andy it does kind of matter here we’ve seen this year and year out and honestly there there’s kind of two things like having played this court is is semi-important it’s not important everywhere it helps everywhere a little

Bit um obviously there’s a lot of a lot of times you say like hey this guy’s never played this course A lot of times guys like that they head out and make sure they get an extra practice round in it’s not you know it’s not rocket science obviously there’s there is

Something with Augusta and having played that over and over for some people that really does help out but more so than course history just uh we’ve seen this year in and year out at the Sony like the people who play the Tournament of Champions who’ve already played one

Round in Hawaii yeah um you know gotten a bunch of Bermuda putting in that’s helpful so I don’t know I’m I’m not a huge course history guy you know this like yeah try to stay away from that sort of stuff for the most part it’s more of a

Extra little nudge for me if anything like if I’m trying to break a tie between some guys like hey this guy’s played here the last six years this other guy hasn’t we’re gonna look at and I did find my Sentry um model I’m gonna look at that

Now yeah feel I feel like I uh I was was kind of uh pimping Post in a little where’s the winner where is my winner Kirk I don’t think I had him very high yeah I had him I had him in my top 20 I had theala 12th uh who’s third uh

My guy spey yeah I never I never know spe is UNM modelable that’s a the thing at this point Eric Cole had a nice week he was my number two uh Glover can’t putt but he was up there as well let the field and approach in the week yeah

There you go so like I said I did build my Sony it’s called Sony Open course fit we’ll get to yours in a second but yeah let’s let’s talk the course a little bit outside of the like you said the course hisory or course history having played

There matters a little but also you know some of the skills it’ll matter as we we can kind of use this segue into building your your model for the week yeah uh real quick you touched on it too and I think Justin Ray had this as well I think like

82% um of the golfers that have played that played at the century the week before and have come over to walleye to play the Sony made the cut so like that I think is more relevant than than anything course history wise but you know again data golf again while I

Was talking to myself mentioned you know data golf is uh pretty cool course history stat in terms of like the stickiness and predictability and outside of Augusta National walleye is the second um so again it’s I kind of agree with you it’s not something that I would model uh but as a tiebreaker

Probably rather have you have come here before and that’s what the interesting I think conversations with the guys at the top of the board that have not come here previously but yeah I mean accuracy and more so than anything positional golf off the tea matters here a lot we have

Permuda grass all over the place that’s about where the parallels end to caloa because you do have um these very narrow corridors off the tea these dog legs that kind of force you into not just being in the Fairway but on the right side you know we do have some positional

Courses that are in the rotation but this one tends to be one where just you can’t really cut the dog legs uh it’s really really hard to try to out drive it or try to muscle this place out um you know we have the ability to cut down

Some like less than driver stuff here they’ve grown out the grass the rough here the last couple years too we’re up to three inches last year uh both you know along the fairways and around the green which I think matters too um but those are some of the key things small

Way smaller greens so you got to be able to you know hit your Fairways and everyone’s kind of forced into some of the similar buckets on each hole because of the force dog legs so 125 to you know 200 yards is really the key range from an approach standpoint this week uh yeah

What else are you looking at in terms of you know this this course and stats that matter yeah like we’re calling them tight corridors which they are and it is positional golf but they are not skinny Fairways you should be able to hit these if you’re accurate so accuracy matters

Not so much for staying out of trouble staying out of the rough it matters for making sure you’re in like you said a good position to make that second shot so yeah not only driving accuracy but maybe good you know good drives gained is maybe a slightly better metric for

That point because you’re going to want to be able to find a guy who’s been consistently able to put drives in spots where he’s hitting the green on the next shot you know even even if those you know drives end up in The Fringe because you it’s it’s sometimes a fringe on the

Right side of the Fairway is better than being in a spot where you’re not you know you’re not punching out but you’re trying to shape a shot have no real chance to land on the dance floor so you know Fairways gain is nice but I do like

Uh good drives gained in this spot obviously approach huge it’s maybe the the biggest I mean there’s other ones that are bigger but it’s one of the top five like second shot courses and like you said everyone is forced into that same bucket you can’t out drive some of

These spots you’re going to be in that 120 to 150 up to 200’s range and then the you know the putting it is Bermuda but the greens are not the same there isn’t uh I don’t know some of the the tearing and you know segmentation of the greens doesn’t exist as much here

They’re a lot flatter they’re easier they still are the grainy Bermuda though if you can’t you know read and put on Bermuda you’re still gonna have trouble even though they’re easier and flatter um I don’t know that’s kind of kind of all all I have for this one yeah

If if it gets windy that can but that’s probably gonna impact everyone it’s very hard to say like I’m going to predict these guys are better and win so I’m going to play them um yeah and then again scrambling probably similar to last week not

Something I’m going to look at a lot if you’re scrambling here a lot you’re not winning anyway you know if you’re constantly missing the greens you know greens and regulation percentage was something we downweighted last week because everybody hits the greens and it doesn’t matter a lot of people aren’t in

A good spot despite hitting a lot of greens you know if proximity is probably a little more important whereas this week I am looking at some greens and regulation because it does matter you need to just be on there and give yourself a lot of scoring opportunities

Again yeah when you kind of look at to the top of the leaderboard last year because they are smaller greens uh you are forced to scramble a little bit more uh because it is a little bit more inevitable to miss and you know greens and rag is funny like it’s kind of like

An oldfashioned stat we don’t talk talk about a lot but I think it does matter this week I think it is just kind of a basic stat that I think you want to look at but you look at the top of the board guys there’s no one in the top 10 top 11

That were um you know negative in Strokes gained around the green so maybe Strokes gain short game matters a lot um or matters a little bit combination of putting and around the green because look you mentioned it if we don’t get massive Gusty wins you way of scoring that’s

Going to be probably in like the high teens to 20s we had like a lift cleaning place uh event a couple years ago a lot of rain and wind the cam Smith year I think 2020 maybe and I think we finished at like 11 or 12 but otherwise like even

With the the rough grown out a little bit last year we you know see who was 18 you know when we had some guys up North so if it plays light with better quality in the field probably pushing 20 again so uh yeah you need to hit the greens

But you got to scramble your face off and make those putts and recover uh to be able to move on and you know and the course is interesting like that you know we can still have like 20 under but like the first eight nine holes like the

Front Nine’s tough um you got to kind of hold your way through it there’s some birdie opportunities in the back ends or par 70 so when we have the two par fives got to be a burrial those are two of the easiest par fives on the course so you

Got to kind of cut your teeth on the par fors here to kind of hang Soh I’m with you I do think as basic it is as it is right we’re all Strokes gained you don’t use basic greens and rag but I think greens and rag when you kind of just

Filter out what happened last year those guys probably had like a 75 85% clip of greens and rag so I think it matters and and maybe maybe a good research project between now and when the when the course uh the events start s is looking at that

When you you start looking at the around the green numbers sometimes it’s you know a good example is like a guy holding out from the Fairway and then looking at that one day sample of like you know his his his Strokes gain numbers they’re going to be a little

Wonky because of that the same thing can be like you know how did he how did he do around the green and you looking it’s like he had one really nice chip that maybe went in and he really didn’t have a ton of sh you know you start looking

At the guys near the top of the leaderboard and realizing like they didn’t have a lot of shots that were around the green they didn’t have a lot of scrambling they didn’t have a lot of sand you know sand saves but when they did they they were all right at it

Whereas like all right maybe I don’t think I need to wait that if if it wasn’t a big part of it it was such a small part of the game they just happen to excel at that and you know obviously maybe that kind of goes along with they

Were playing good golf that week because they’re at the top of the leaderboard so everything was kind of working at that point maybe something again I didn’t include I didn’t include short game or around the green I just uh I ended up and I don’t think this is going to be

Some surprise I I I wanted to leave your model untainted by you know what I put in mind but I mean I I’m going to include a Bermuda split again just yeah like for sure look I this is how we do the research project you can do it on

The rabbit hole if you bring up the screen here real quick this would be the way to do it so um one of the display filters um you can display based off of you know where they rank versus the fields um their average the total Strokes gains but you can go here and

Look at percentage of rounds gains and I think this would be the best way to do it you can look at percentage of rounds gains in comparison to actual Strokes gains short game and get a sense of like to your point where you would like filter out some of those spiked weeks

That you know you chip in a couple times or um you know some stuff that’s maybe unsustainable or small sample variant stuff you’re going to get a better feel of like who actually is has a sticky skill here that we would want to maybe give credit to uh if we do think that

That stat matters I think being able to filter out what the actual uh Strokes gained average is versus what the percentage of rounds game would be the way to go ahead and and do that project which I think is something that’s really cool here on the site so all right let’s

Build uh let’s build a model for for this week let’s talk through it I’ve built something but I I cleared my uh all my stats so my mixed condition model is clean we can add some stuff here and get a sense of uh what you think matters

And what we want to do I mean do you want to just start with the easiest one and I I think the question for you is because we did this a little last week and I think we goofed up uh initially sure but the the sample size adjustment

So I think yeah when we’re when we’re looking when you are doing something like this you’re using our tool you know when you’re looking at form or you’re saying like how is this guy an approach like I would probably use his last six months last 50 rounds but when you’re

Doing something a little more specific like how someone putts on Bermuda if they didn’t play in the fall swing and you know it may have been since like like I’m trying to think of Florida like when would be would have been the last time some of these players

Like put it in Bermuda they skip so I I do like to go up to that time frame I change it to two years and I don’t know what whatever your preferences is let me know and then I go to you know maybe last 100 rounds or

Something I guess is that gonna give me a hundred rounds of it’s gonna try to you know it’s gonna try to I’m just gonna I don’t want to go too far back I don’t I don’t want to go like years and years ago but I want to get a really

Good sample and that obviously we got to go to the filters and change it to Bermuda only for the greens and then I then I I think I’ve gotten a decent s like how this person has putted on permuda over a a fair enough sample size for something like that yeah let’s take

A look here we look at the putting uh Strokes gained putting again like you’re getting some of these guys you can see now with our filters situation um we’re not getting the quite we’re not getting a 100 rounds on a lot of these guys uh let’s

See uh I popped did you hear me yeah you did pop a little okay yeah I gota there’s a there’s a core there’s a something here that needs to be replaced this can’t keep happening but as long as you can hear me um yeah so Tyler mcumber

We see here two rounds we can go ahead and filter that out here in this minimum rounds section we want to try let’s see if we want to get at least 36 rounds and this will uh recalibrate in terms of the ranking of guys too you can go ahead and

Set the minimum rounds to offset that so it doesn’t break your model uh but you see some of these guys we’re getting up there at least closer to 50 rounds 36 rounds uh which I think is a little bit useful so we’ll go ahead and we’ll add

That here to our model uh this is our Strokes gain putting again you can use this if you want to make notes you don’t have to when you actually run the model and hover over the filter it’ll show you all the different conditions and filters

That you put on it we’ll show you that there too if you’re seeing this for the first time all right we will uh reset turn that off got Strokes gain putting Bermuda for a big old sample which I do think especially for putting probably want a really large sample just to cut

Down on some of the noise there well not not just putting but putting on a specific surface that is correct you know one of the most common yeah good point um I mean approach all right we how big of a of a bucket here of

Approach do we want to go to last 50 rounds yeah I went like last 50 you could go maybe you know last year if you wanted I six months or a year doesn’t matter really but just making making sure people have gotten uh you know the

Most round most most of the guys here that are going to matter have a big enough sample if you go over last six months yeah I’m going to put a 24 round minimum here just to make sure we capture um you know that a little bit

Cut out some of the uh some of the other guys that won’t be here so we’ll add this here approach this is last 50 rounds you can see we’re we’re not quite getting there over the last six months well let’s let’s back up and we’ll uh

Make sure we we get the 50 rounds it’ll change the time frame to a year you can see that actually populates this here you can actually click on you can see the 50 rounds uh will Gordon um and the 40 is actually the measured rounds from a stroke’s gain standpoint you can click

On that and see the specifics as well which should take you to uh a player page we’re going to build out player Pages here is a project that is ongoing uh and definitely a priority for us which will be uh something hopefully we get done sooner than later so we’ll add

Strokes gain approach um again we’re getting the last 50 rounds over the last year what else do we want to do um I think short game matters we can I want to put it in and we can we can weigh it a little bit and mess around with it um let’s

Go yeah I think you already have the right right enough sample do you want to do Bera splits yeah so we can do just to people that you can do also you can change you know Green size uh you can change the rough length and we know that we have a

Little bit you know higher rough here is it difficult to gain out of there typically like scrambling uh From the Rough is it easy difficult average from scoring condition standpoint Short Grass like you we have like shav runoffs in some spots this is not what we have here

We have like a three-inch curtain around the green um you we see like Augusta for instance you know that’s the scrambling there when you miss that’s basically like the Fairway yeah so you can filter all that out um which you know absolutely love so make sure you can go

In and play again you can you can probably over complicate things by adding too many conditions I’d be careful doing but again you have the ability to you just I would look at a thing or two together I wouldn’t start get into like clicking like three or four things and filtering because then

You’re sample size is GNA get real real wonky um yeah I don’t know what I want to do because we have we have the putting so I don’t want to double count the putting with the I think so you’re you’re not going to double count because we went to

Bermuda only so this is gonna look at you know this is going to look at anyone who played fall any who played you know the bent and POA of the summer so maybe just do you want to go short game on like small greens yeah let’s do it see

What we got green size small all right we’ll see what we get from a sample size you know I think if you’re looking at rounds that only include courses with small greens you’re probably going to include more of hey this is a he might have had a good t-

Shot he might have had a good proach shot but the green is so small that he ended up with a you know a SCP scrambling opportunity here and it may you know it may not be a difficult scrambling opportunity because the green is small that’s the thing about that if

If you miss small on a green like that it might still just be a little chip yeah what’s a good point do you want to do around the green short game or we can get into specific around the green stuff like uh proximity uh you know scrambling From the Rough

Specifically um let’s keep this one keep it basic just around the green I think the all incp one we’re already getting a little specific with the small stuff there small greens but no I like that all right off the team matters we’ve talked about it Ron and I in the

Preview yesterday we looking at the opening odds we’re just talking about how to capture accuracy off the te um I’m gonna clear this filter here reset the uh small greens uh I think that there’s you know a couple different ways that we can do this I think obviously

And you mentioned a good drive percentage uh you know driving accuracy I think is noisy in and of itself talked about this again where I do really like this distance from the edge of the Fairway I have a model on the site that is just capturing all three of these

Just kind of a you know driving accuracy model uh is what I’ve called it we just get a sense of um you know how to capture that information I think in a in a better way I think it tells a better story of what we’re looking to capture versus just Flatout driving accuracy

Which I think could be maybe a little bit noisy but how should we capture the the desire to be accurate off the team and put yourself in a good spot here yeah like I said you can use just Fairways gain you could use uh driving accuracy you use good drives gained uh I

Will tell you in my model I went with driving accuracy and good drives gained okay um and just split it half and half I’m saying I you know I wanted to make this like whatever it was 10 15% of the model I took them both and end up

Splitting it half and half over like a a six month sample size okay all right so let’s uh let’s six months all rounds I’m goingon to add all three and we’ll give it 15% what was the third one you’re G to add then distance from the edge of

The Fairway okay yeah that’s I was gonna say total driving is one I’d to stay away from this week that includes agreed that that’s building in distance we’re not looking for bombers at the spot so building in total driving um probably not a great one this week yep total

Driving uh same thing distance from the edge of the Fairway uh carry distance these are all unique stats uh that you can use the model the rabbit hole to model that you cannot anywhere else so we’re going to add driving accuracy I’m going to add good drives and I’m gonna

Add distance from the edge of the Fairway we’ll give those a 5% each that way we’re kind of capturing I think 15% for that which I think is probably a good spot to be with anyway so uh do we want to get into the uh you know again we’re counting approach we’re probably

Gonna count approach pretty heavily you know good drive gains captures approach a little bit uh do we want to get into anything from a uh proximity range bucket uh or any scoring things I think those are probably our last two did you I I I did put in some proximity small

But I did put in the 125 to 200 bucket just because there’s it’s not one of those where like a bunch of shots are from here it’s like all the shots are from here yeah almost 70% and it was one where I I didn’t want

To go too heavy on these because I had already i’ had already took you know just approach I put it in I I had approach and green regulation went in so my model is very second shot heavy you know there’s some double counting already I knew that going in that was

Probably going to be the case but at the same point I can’t go weighing putting at like 40% if you’re gonna double count anything we should be double counting approach pretty right that’s almost like any event so it’s kind it’s kind of where I’m fine at it it’s a few

Different ways to look at approach you’re looking at it from an overarching all-encompassing standpoint just Strokes gained you’re looking at it from uh are you hitting the greens every sing you know how often are you hitting the greens and also like are you getting close are you getting close to you know

To the pin when you do hit the greens or you know in the case of proximity you know when when you’re not making your shots when you are missing hopefully you’re missing small yeah you see here too you can hover over the stat and it’ll tell you specifically what it

Is if you’re not familiar obviously everyone knows what these ones are but maybe there’s some other ones that are new to you and you’re not quite sure just you can hover over it and it tells tells you exactly what it is which I think is awesome do you want to do

Anything scoring or do you feel okay based off of the short game of the Bermuda putting splits yeah so so the fact that we already did a bunch of approach in putting I kind of want to just say screw it with the scoring birdies are better if if you wanted to

Throw birdies are better I wouldn’t blame you but I think it’s probably already counted yep okay let’s see what we got here we’ll hit this button uh if you’re not familiar you want to see how to do the things that we just it’s very easy but there’s this watch tutorial

Button uh walks you through basically how to go ahead and change these views you can change the courses if you wanted course history you do right here in the course section this is capturing all courses you can literally just pull walleye Country Club look at the last

You know couple years you want to see last year whatever you want to do uh this is defaulting to draftking scoring if you’re playing DFS but you can add FanDuel here as well if you happen to play there uh you can break down regions there’s all sorts of things course type

You saw a little bit of the filtering there are are a ton of filtering options here pretty straightforward again you can DM us on uh on Twitter at betsports golf if you have any questions or looking to play around with it or watch the tutorial here as well click this

Button let’s see what we get here and now we have to weigh everything so we got uh we got nine things that populated you can see here this also saves all your models which is fantastic uh you can go ahead and cut them up into a c and pull them all and

Do all sorts of stuff to them all I’m going let you I’m gonna let you weigh it how you want to weigh it I’ve already given you enough input here you do what you do all right so we said we’re going to give this 15% this

Combination of off the te stuff so we are uh 15 here uh I’m going to just play around with it we’re going to get something up here soon that tells you what your percentage is makes it a little bit easier so you have to do the

Math in your head I’ll go 10 with the putting again you can click this this tells you what we looked at here this is two years 100 rounds Bermuda putting Strokes gains pretty simple in case you ever forget you add too much or you leave stuff in there we got somebody

Somebody’s wanting a reason to play Justin so well you might get it you might get it I haven’t looked too close at mine I just built it out I haven’t had a lot of time to play I’m wondering where I have them in mine now all right so let’s give

Us let’s just see where we’re at here so this is 20 30 40 uh 50 we got uh give a big old bucket here or should we add some stuff because this is uh this is 100 but that’s a lot 60 70 80 90 100 that we’re getting we’re

Really I mean approach becomes uh you know like 70% of the model basically a big difference in what I do too is um I always will put just total Strokes gained in for a small sample as as kind of a yeah like hey I I I don’t want it

Counting weird stuff I know it’s course fit and it’s you know a little lighter and stuff like that but I always do just go like 25% Strokes G total over you know whatever sample just to give myself a bit of an anchor and I guess that’s kind of where

Mine differs a little from yours no I think that’s a good call too I I like that too because when you you know you’ll see guys that probably should be at the top or near the top of your model that end up being buried but their Baseline is just so much higher but

You’re probably not capturing um the the information that you probably should be capturing so yeah let’s do that we’ll go back here um I put that in so now we got 10 things a little Rich we got some double counting but that’s okay um we’re gonna give these five

Each and capturing that I think is really good uh and we want to give a big old bucket to let’s see approach so where we at here 40 50 60 70 80 and we’ll give us 20 that should capture all that you want to give your uh your report a name

I I do and I have I have a point of uh contention don’t write nunin on yours you write like Sony nunin and then the the computer lists the user that writes it so it’s like Sony nunin by nin so you don’t need to write your name

I was gonna I had a screenshot of no I gotta get dagel to turn off his uh you know he’s got a a model in there from like the uh I don’t know what it is Windom CH something that’s been yeah long gone all right make it make it an

Expert report so people can play with it we can you can do that later we can check that as well later all right not something uh everyone will have see what we get here oh Brandon Todd at the top uh Todd is it I mean people are talking

Todd and Cole are good course fits again yep uh Glover we mentioned Glover you know you know you’re pulling obviously that heater at the end of last year but again he led the field and approach last week at the century so he’s still continuing to do it could not

Make a putt for his life but that’s captured here you can see he is you know towards the bottom of the pack uh putting wise so uh that’s uh that’s very very interesting uh our guy from Japan here is getting a lot of credit for being absolutely dialed in off the te he

Is tops in all of these again you can go back and filter out small sample size that would maybe capture that a little bit our guy here seems to be uh struggling with the flat stick which I think is pretty interesting now Russell Henley this is a Russell Henley course

When Russell Henley we don’t have uh the top of the board in terms of like uh Ludovic oberg or Matthew Fitzpatrick or Terell Hatton uh you know we don’t have them here this is like Russell Henley is the top of the board from a betting standpoint so and makes sense even the

Sample that we pulled he is tops in this field and approach which I think is very interesting Fenson uh is an interesting one here as well you see Harmon you know if you want to filter in like hey who are the guys that are at the top in terms of this is filtering

Through DraftKings scoring uh you could see where some of those guys are so you know not a spot where you gota go with the top the board obviously anytime you do anything like this there’s always going to be some weird stuff like our our Japanese friend that was near the

Top but also I mean just looking at will salauris we have them ranked 120th in our model the way we built this and a lot of that is going to come down to the sample sizes we have for him aren’t you know what what we do have

Is his putting on Bermuda which hasn’t been great but then all the other stuff is almost not existence for like last six months last 50 rounds because he just didn’t play golf so grain of salt with some of those guys obviously you gota have to make your own you know your

Own decisions on you know Gary and will when they come back like this yep um it’s a good point yeah we just always don’t have a sample cutting down here see if anything else makes sense Chris playing really uh good golf obviously he’s been a guy that you know makes

Sense and plays really well here historically I’m not sealing the deal but getting really close 14th in the model let’s do a control F for Justin see where we have him who we looking for oh s oh we don’t even need to look at that it has a built in

62nd so around the green not great approach has been rough and it’s good it’s good to maybe dig in on that a little but uh his proximity numbers not great has played well in general and has been decent off the te I guess it’s one of those things too where if you think

There’s reasons that his approach and proximity numbers are bad and you have you know some evidence of these are the courses that he played and they didn’t fit his skill set and I think he’ll play a lot better than have at it bet who you want I ain’t going to tell

You yeah especially ear the season we’re like really fighting for we obviously want the largest sample of recent form data that we can get we just don’t have it you know we don’t we just we’re we’re pulling stuff that’s that’s going back to the middle of the summer especially

We’re looking at the last you know 50 rounds you know most of these guys just weren’t playing some of these guys comparatively to last week just weren’t playing in the swing season events so you’re pulling some stuff that is definitely far out there so um yeah let’s talk through uh the betting board

I have not seen any of your bets I don’t know if you’ve made any yet but I’m very curious to see uh where you’ve gone or uh what you have that’s uh that’s of interest to you mentioned at the top there are three guys that are short of

20 that are the class of the field lud Vic olberg Matthew Fitzpatrick uh and Terell Hatton who just do not come here all the time but uh they are definitely better than the average golfer in this field and they are all priced accordingly but again in a spot where

You know are they course fits they have no course history that seems to matter a little bit here uh are you interested at all on the top of the board Brian Haron I guess another name uh we should give him uh his his comeuppence uh winning the Open Championship and you know

Played decent in the Ryder Cup played decent last week he’s also 20 most spots a little shorter on Chris which I think is telling as well uh yeah so I I can’t bet those I can’t bet those guys that haven’t played that weren’t out here like that’s just awful tough

For me and you know Hatton hatton’s Maybe look with some of the golf he’s played but at those prices I’m go a little further down Corey Connors is going to be super popular here I think that number kind of reflects it he’s a good you know good course fit should

Putt well here but uh clicking through the clicks like it’s gonna have to be the guys I looked at last week a little and probably Poston and Eric Cole I bet Eric Cole in a head tohe head full tournament against Denny uh he wasn’t in contention in contention but he was

Always in that second like Cole was just kind of hanging back he needed like he needed like a 61 at some point you know he needed a big monster round to throw in at the end to get into contention but he’s still at a nice tournament I don’t

Know if I can find a better number than um I don’t know what you’re seeing for the best one I’m seeing 25ish uh Eric col uh 30 uh 32 on Chris yeah it’s been bet out it’s 25 there okay so if I can find a 30 I think

That’s a play for me I didn’t uh didn’t end up with really any outrights last week I just did some matchups I didn’t I didn’t have strong convictions I was talking about like hey this guy might be a top 10 but I am gon to look at two or

Three outrights here like I said Eric Cole models out high for me this week just he’s a good approach player he puts well he played well and not only did he play well but he played well last week little concerned about the driver um not the strongest in accuracy and good drive

Percentage but if that driver if he’s clubbing down and that’s working out for him I think he’s goingon to play well again this week so 30 to one would probably be a betat for me and then just looking at the rest of the you know Ober

Oberg is going to model out well for anybody who’s looking at a decent sample of the last six months he’s he’s been able to go to courses he’s never played and played awful well so maybe maybe we can throw some of that out but um yeah at the prices I’d have

To stay away from him and then same thing with Russell Henley you know I love betting Russell Henley but man I’m not sure I’m betting Russell Henley at 22 to1 in a full field event right now so it’s probably gonna be guys further down I’ll look at brandan Todd um who

Else do I have you know I love Stephen yagger I bet that guy way too much Poston and may it maybe Chris Kirk for the double should I know I was I was actually really surprised Kirk’s number I mean and it’s it’s actually got bet

Down and I was it opened up at like 35 I almost pulled the trigger because I thought for sure we would open and like where we are now you know most domestics are around 25 uh Chris is even shorter than that um which I think is important

Information yeah I mean it was dialed in last week uh didn’t shrink when the uh you know the heat got on him a little bit just just kept sticking I mean he obviously he gained like 11 Strokes putting but he was also just putting himself in position too on

The weekend where he just had makeable putts and then drained everything so this is typ typically a course where we would back Chris Kirk uh more often but yeah I mean I don’t I don’t hate it I mean you definitely missed the best of the number here on Tuesday there were

Some better numbers on Monday but uh yeah he he sets up well he sets up well for sure yeah maybe uh maybe a spot where I Back Him Live because now it is quite a bit down I don’t know if I can get that number

For the back to back yeah I I the terms of the top I’m with you none of them really interest me I was on Fitz last week gave me a little bit of a sweat and then yeah I think he had a double uh on Sunday and pushed himself out of the mix

There around the turn um it would be oldberg at the top but I can’t do it 16 to1 I I’m I’m heavy I got a I got six guys on the card um but I am I’m down the board for the most part uh with some of these like coarse horses some of

These like position golf stal worst that I think are definitely a wall likee Country Club kind of guy but I am with you I know you went there last week you already mentioned it JT Poston opened at 40 thought was a really really good number for for the postman and uh you

Know was in the mix last week T5 which is a really nice showing he had that did you see I don’t know how much golf you watched you see that like that chip from like maybe 40 yards out plunked it and it popped out like oh yeah that has to

Be M he I don’t think he could see it cuz he was a little below the green so he’s like asking what happened and he could tell he was disgusted what are you gonna do golf’s tough um if I find a decent number I’d look at him the only

Other guy I’m looking at kind of in that range maybe some Harris English go back to him I have him as a decent fit here but yeah I need to dig in a little so I might I may leave the show with just the one outright so far obviously I’ll put

Anything else I bet in the Discord and talk about some of the other bets in the newsletter um if that’s your bag but Ben Griffin maybe maybe not good enough on approach for me in some spots yeah yeah he’s uh guy we went to the well on a lot last season uh yeah

Postman’s my favorite for sure I mean look at the form five t7 or better in the last 10 starts um second in the field over the last 50 rounds and approach tops in the field in Strokes gain short game you know the Bermuda grass splits are pretty nice there too

So yeah I mean if you can get something still 30 or north of 30 I think is you know fand dos a 33 couple other domestics are there as well uh you can see Chris is is beat up a little bit that’s a little bit tougher one more guy

And then I’ll let you talk about whichever guys you want to talk about the you’ve bet if you want to you know talk about them all but JJ spawn um it’s like 75 to one that’s probably a I bet him yep I got an

80 I’m looking I can get I can get a 75 at Chris I’ll hunt around see if I can get a better price but y um looking looking at the model I did build out for this like he’s fine his putting isn’t great the rest but the I mean the rest

Of it is very good the rest of it fine his approach is Top Notch all his proximity numbers look good his driving accuracy looks good he should put himself in position where if he can just use that good approach game and give himself a bunch of easy putts and he

Starts dropping some of those he’ll be in contention so 75’s a bat yeah yeah ninth in the field in Strokes gain T green over the last 50 rounds he’s gained strokes and approach 16 of the past 17 events which I think is pretty awesome uh can scramble his face off

Again it’s the putting so we just need like a field average or you know I don’t even know what a spike putting week look we need some hole outs we need some we need some darts that leave two Footers we need some easy shots he comes here

Often T12 last year again to your point kind of a tiebreaker um so at least there’s some familiarity with coming here often and uh got strong recent showings he showed well at the RSM and Zozo in the swing season that’s a guy that’s playing those events so we have I

Think a little bit more relevant recent form comparatively so yeah spawn at 80 still 75 out there let me see yeah 75s um 55 in some places yeah 75 is still a betat so yeah he’s one of it’s why I have a lot of guys this week I have more

Than normal but I still have like a little less uh allocated units out because some of these guys are are deeper down the board like a spawn at 80 so uh yeah Poston was my top guy a couple other guys in that next bucket too I fired at Justin Rose at

45 uh I don’t know if you saw that unfortunate uh you know hit Taylor Moore’s ball then kind of derailed some of his early round stuff but best score on Sunday at the sentury which is nice like you like to see the carrying that over really good fit for this track he

Hasn’t been here in a while uh 2017 was the last time he played here but he was second so I think is nice but then look at where he played really well last year courses where it’s shorter courses smaller greens positional golf courses he won at Pebble T6 at the players and

I’ve heard a little bit of like I think you kind of look at some past leaderboards like seu won there um you we’ve seen Russell Henley play well at Saw Grass I think there’s a little bit there terms of positional golf course there T6 there for Rose last year T25 at

Heritage T12 at Colonial those are all like second shot positional type courses that’s where he’s kind of uh you know making his bread these days so I like Rosie I got him at 45 I think those are probably still out there let me see oh no oh no 45 still

Right around there Chris MGM is 45 most of the others moved to 35 Todd father we’ve danced around coming out at the top of the model I got a 50 on Brandon Todd and that’s mostly cooked there are some 40s 45s 40 you could find

A 45 look um I know that was one the name popped but uh the price just isn’t there right now he’s down under 40 at Chris if I find a 45 I might uh I might have a third am me go for my card but yeah Brendan Todd obviously model out

High for me and I think I have them four his putting is great on permuda his driving is good enough I think I have to bet this guy yeah so he I don’t know if you saw he went uh what I would call full thin

Uh on on Sunday off the tea he smacked his driver and busted his driver in half um had to play the uh you know final 12 holes or so with his uh with his three three-wood off the tea which is a little bit tougher for a guy like who doesn’t

Really get the distance that he needs so made it a little bit tough he doesn’t have the club speed to be doing that like not great not great but yeah uh but the rest of it I mean anything you’re modeling like we did in terms of like

Accuracy off the te all that stuff he’s gonna populate really well like short game putting all that’s really good and we’ve seen improvements in terms of his approach game too so Brandon Todd at 50 I think is uh is a good look um I went with Keegan I thought it was a really

Bad number at 75 uh not like populating really highly in the model per se but I just think he’s like in a class above kind of the rest of the guys that are down here so you’re a masshole I am a masshole you just you just love Keegan after we talk

Keegan and I talked uh about the uh you know was before the NFL season started at the BMW about you know the prospects of uh Kristoff porzingis this year for Celtics we talked about uh Zeke Elliot uh for our past this year so you know we

Bonded on our Mass wholeness uh so yeah I’m foran for sure at 75 I thought was a bad number second best New England second best New England golfer of all time besides me I’m trying to think other guys from up there don’t have a lot don’t have a lot uh

Uh Ron’s new friend Brad Faxon Rhode Island yeah that’s right he’s a Rhode Island guy we barely count Rhode Island in Connecticut as New England stat yeah so you know but true know Vermont guy so yeah uh yeah I mean seventh an approach last week uh

Couldn’t make a pot bunch of t15s here in the past speaking of story Shameless plug here if you live in Vermont which the odds are saying you know 100 people listen to this half of you half of a person will be I think is about we’re at

But um you’re going live sports betting is legal and live in two days if you need any promo codes to get the best offers obviously hit us up or just check out you know any of our websites bets birs will have something yeah welcome to the party Vermont uh last one talked

About spawn Aaron Ry uh at 80 why didn’t I I should have known this one I could have just checked the Discord I didn’t true I like to be surprised Aon Ry has again played a little bit in the swing season on the DP world tour two top 10

Uh in those three starts approach game has been a little bit more consistent putting is all over the map um often bad but like like spawn um he is a guy that’s gonna keep himself in play has played better you know at positional type golf courses historically so an 80

On Aaron Ry uh I think is uh was a play for me and that’s those are pretty much gone I mean 50s out there on Ry on Caesars 75s we got some 60s out there so 75 on FanDuel still still bet for me on Aon rice so yeah like more guys than

Normal for me but starting the card with posting at 40 allowed me to do that a little bit and take more shots at the uh at the uh at the top of the board you know want I back up by uh SE last year

At 45 was a uh a nice little win paid for my golf trip and would love to do that again here at the uh at walleye yeah I think my Cole Todd spawn I think that’s it and then I’ll start looking at matchups figuring out that but probably

It for the for the outrights Cole 25 or 30 Todd hopefully 40 45 and then I can get spawn at 75 or 80 those are going to be bets for me I’m gonna go after the show is over I have a meeting which I can use to do some Price shopping

Hopefully no one’s watching this from work I want to get into a little bit more of the head-to heads this season and I think I want to use the tool to help me do that um because hard for me typically is like to find guys I want to

Target and like bet against um oftentimes they do at least with the limited domestic offers I feel like guys are clumped together pretty well like I like both those guys they both going head tohe head but I want to find some guys that maybe that that always happens

I mean that 100% of the time if you have a guy you’re looking at you think it’s going to be undervalued by the the pricing and you have a guy that’s going to be you know maybe there’s two of them they’re always going to be paired

Together like oh both guys I like are and then you’ll have two guys that you want to bet against because you think the market is wrong on them their other way and they’ll be paired against each other as well which is super annoying I do my own modeling for head-to-head but

I do use you know the tool to bring in some of the context because that’s more of a overarching like just comparing kind of relative strength of golf games and it doesn’t use any course effects or anything so that’s where I use the the

Tool for that for sure we have a uh if you go to the tool fit model yeah we we we’re could be very very very shortly bringing back our matchups tool on the site which I’m happy to report that is very very close uh we will’ll have

On-site projections you can put two guys in you can put in the odds and uh it will tell you if there’s an EV bet to be made so I’ll look for that in the very near future uh that is uh pretty close to being done for us on the site so

Oh brought the tool back I’m just clicking around now yeah so cool don’t forget go in the show in the show notes as we mentioned earlier if you want to get access to the um Rabbit Hole play around build models yourself get access to the models that we’re

Building uh our boy Ron is building as well there’s a really cheap way to do it right now if you happen to be in a state that could take advantage of the Vivid promo uh through Vivid picks I will have vivid picks uh article on the site to

Help support people that are playing those games if it’s a pick them site similar or some other ones that are out there if you’re not familiar with it uh you know backed by Vivid Seats company you can buy your secondary uh tickets from very cool actually a really cool

Social element to that as well like if you follow me on Vivid picks uh and we bet the same play uh we get boosted odds as well so it becomes like there’s a benefit to like finding good plays tailing uh we start to improve the odds

And the payout that we get too which is very different than some of the other pickham sites out there that’s kind of their play uh to make it a little bit more of a social app as well so look for that this week we’ll have that on the

Site every week moving forward uh by Wednesday afternoon so waiting for them to to populate some of those plays but that’s going to be cool yeah if you’re not it says it right in the article if you’re not in a vivid State and you still want to try this out shoot one of

Us a DM bets for’s golf Brian braon myself we’ll probably we’ll probably slide you a promo code to get a cheap first month or something if you want to try it out but otherwise it is still it’s only 20 bucks a month regardless you’re paying like five bucks a week to

To use all the PGA data and make custom models not a bad price even cheaper if you get the yearly sub which is what1 199 for the year probably paying like three bucks a week or something along those lines to you know three bucks and change to make custom models whatever

You want download them to your spreadsheets like I do and use them for anything else so if you have any questions like I said DM us hit us up otherwise we’ll catch you here again next week for the MX the MX hitting the mainland best

Of luck in all your bets this week all your DFS all your oneand done all your anything else you’re doing confidence pools who knows on Wednesday DFS show coming back yep we will be doing that so yeah check that out tomorrow afternoon I think three and yeah hit the thumbs up on the

Way out if you’ve listened to podcast leave a rate or review that’d be great appreciate you guys see you later