Join Andy Lack and Geoff Fienberg in another exciting episode of “The Drive” as they break down the Sony Open and share their top betting picks and analysis. From Corey Connors and Chris Kirk to longshot sleepers like Tom Hoagy and Cam Davis, they’ve got you covered. Don’t miss the insights that could lead to a profitable week on the PGA tour! #SonyOpen #golfbetting
Timestamps:
0:00 – Introduction
2:25 – Expectations for the Sony Open
3:54 – Course analysis and key factors
7:48 – Top picks: Corey Connors and JT Poston
12:13 – Longshot considerations: Tom Hoagy, Cam Davis, and more
20:05 – Closing thoughts and upcoming events
All right welcome in to another episode of the drive my name is Andy lack I’m joined as always by Jeff fineberg Jeffrey golf is back uh I had a wonderful time this week in Hawaii we are staying all we are staying on the state of Hawaii Al be moving to a
Different Island but how was week one for you of the golf season I know that we’re juggling a little football right now coming down the stretch as well but man it felt good to have golf back in our lives it did feel great but it also
Like returned a sweat and a pain Andy watch if you caught last week’s video I know we had a bit of delays or if you saw my card I was on to Gala there were him and speed there were a few guys I’d even say sjm Saturday um there are a
Couple guys who might be able to lay claim to put their head onto the pillow last night to think it should have been their trophy nothing taking away nothing from Chris Kirk who our boy Tom Jacobs part of the odds Checker family tipped
Him at a 100 50 to one so shout out to Tom but my boy Wy too I wasn’t even yeah not even wasn’t on my radar yeah right over look right through him so shout out to Tom but it’s never fun to start the season as a bridesmaid you know with a
Big with a big number uh but hey that’s just preparing me for for the onslaught of a full calendar year of golf beautiful back in Hawaii we’re off to the Sony yeah my my Xander can’t L card went about exactly as how all the chalk all
The chalk yeah almost like I know in the end I I didn’t end up playing anyone under 20 to one I probably wise stuck in the 30s and that was like the only like little win it was like well at least I didn’t like lose on like the favorites
But other than that yeah it was a tough week for the chalk but all of them sort of had their moment where you thought it would be theirs like they were Xander did for me for sure I allowed myself to to believe Scotty like at some
Point on the weekend they were all like right there with the live favorites yeah yeah yeah they hung around we’re off to the Sony Andy and I’m not gonna lie I don’t really give I don’t really give much consideration to betting anyone under 20 to one but tell
Us what we should expect I’m with you um this has been for me lowkey my most profitable event of the year I I love the Sony Open um seiw Kim last year 60 to1 uh the prior year I won your boy Pat Mayo Experience open was the biggest
DraftKings week in my life so I’ve got some good I’ve got some good vibes at this golf course I really like this golf course um and I think you can distill it to two main pillars Jeffrey and I don’t know if this will help you maybe narrow
Down your card we can talk about some guys I have made three bets um and I have some Rome so excited to chat with you about it but the two most interesting things about uh wly to me Jeffrey is first of all short to Middle iron play is tremendously important
You’ve got like almost 75% of approach shots are coming in this very specific range of 125 to 200 and then number two is outside of austa national Jeff this is the number one correlated course in terms of course history so we have kind of this interesting dichotomy where from
A statistical standpoint it’s the most important course history course course experience course on the PGA tour and yet the three favorites are all first timers yeah okay uh that’s an interesting nugget I’ve yeah a lot of similar players have had you know a lot of success here I don’t know if that
Means I should be like looking to bet Matt coocher when you say something like that but it gives me some confidence to maybe roll with some of the guys that I have been looking at using that odds Checker grid though Andy the numbers are climbing on the chalk um you know we’re
We um recording this a little later today and if we had done this earlier ludvig might have been a 12 but now when I’m staring at the grid the high Mark as the favorite is 16 to1 so clearly the books have not taken much action on the
Big boys at the 20 to1 Mark today so that could be an indication of people obviously like us having already looked down the board yeah well this typically isn’t a Euro Rider cup spot right this is we we start to see these guys a lot more at at
The Honda and in Florida so I was a bit surprised that ludvig it seems like for your fantasy season long drafts like it it seems like ludvig is just gonna play a ton of golf this year like he seems like the type of guy like maybe a sun JM
Secondy year rookie year where it seems like lvic he played like every event this fals way nobody’s been playing more golf than ludvig right now which we love to see with that being said just like my concerns about him last week I do not love him on golf courses that devalue
His greatest skill which which is Elite and long driving and this is a golf course where you do not need to be a particularly Elite driver you not be need to be a particularly long driver for me Jeff things really get interesting in the 25 plus range and uh
That means I’m skipping right past Russell Henley at 20 and Brian Harmon at 22 those numbers got hit um we should mention Henley open 25 Harmon I saw a lot of people on him at like 28 I saw 35s I’m not even kidding but you know
What I wasn’t really that maybe I should have been more bullish on it I didn’t even do it for me at 30 at 35 golf betting is this weird thing Andy where it’s like even if you’re getting 10 extra points you actually have to believe the guy is going to win or like
I’m not betting it so totally maybe I’ll swing and Miss on Harmon but I got my own losers I I’m willing to let Harmon beat me at 22 to1 Henley there’s some Scar Tissue there I mean I think we all remember the Hideki year a lot of us had
Him from an outright sense he’s he’s obviously well live here I still can’t justify him being that much lower than players like Cory Connor Eric colle Chris Kirk JT Poston those are the guys that I have the most interested in Jeff interest in Jeff and I will tell you
Right now I have bet Cory Connor at 33 to1 he is now down to 28 I’m still okay with that I have bet JT Poston at 40 to1 he is now down to 33 to one I guess I’m okay with that as well but those are my
Guys this week Jeff those two players check that major major box for me Connor’s posting both hit the ball really well at capalo that’s another nugget I want to throw in I believe 75% of the last 20 Champions played in the Sentry the week prior um
So I like for them to get those reps at the sentury and Poston and Connors I mean Connors more so has the best course history out at this course outside of anyone may be short of Matt coocher poston’s been pretty good here as well and both of them are really awesome
Middle iron players that hit the ball really well at at capalo so Poston and Conor for me uh at the Top Jeff that’s kind of how I’m starting my card and then a lot of guys in the 50s and 60s so uh I’ll I’ll I’ll ride your draft here
Andy I’m all in on Corey Connor’s this week I am worried does feel like a Cory Conor’s chalk week but this Cory Conor does yeah good things do not happen on Cory Connor’s chalk week but I don’t know I’m in as anyone who’s watched me
On this channel plenty I’m in for a lot of Cory Connors all the time chalk week or fade week uh I’m always in for Connor’s as I’ve said many times he is like the banana stand there was always money in Corey Connors the outright ticket a little bullish but you’re
Telling me I get Cory Connors it would I feel a fair number on his best putting course historically on a course that Andy has mentioned absolutely rewards course history I can’t pass it up if it goes down in flames I’ll go down in flames with it throw me a life jacket uh
Responsibly you mentioned Poston I like a lot of guys in this range I haven’t been anyone else but I definitely will uh I sort of laid my flag planted a flag uh in the ground today Andy and it’ll probably come back to bite me but the
Fact that I can get Chris Kirk at the same number as Eric Cole like sign me up for Chris Kirk 98 out of a 100 times right now back to back yeah yeah back to back but we’ve seen that more he’s such a laid-back guy and I just you know it’s
Not like he was out partying he’s not even into that anymore it’s like that’s another life so he’s a for player he can ride this form at a course that he’s always been comfortable with I thought that was such a fair number I love Eric
Cole it’s a great story I I could be at a Tipping Point with it you know 35y old Rookie of the Year whose mom’s being treated like the new Amanda duffner like I could be over this thing Andy I could be and maybe this is the Wei finally
Cashes but haven’t bet him before I don’t think I’m starting this week going a little further back though I want a bigger number but man I think I’m even pulling it in one and done so I’ll be all over him Benny Anne Benny an like he’s checking every box the problem is
The books are almost telling us not to bet him because you you would think you’d get a 50 or 60 on Benny and using that odds Checker grid the highest I can pull is a 40 um all in on Benny that’s an easy sell for me uh I don’t think it’s out of
The realm of possibility that we see another strong performance from sew Kim as well uh we should talk about zalot Taurus what’s the for you like he’s 45 to1 um that’s right to me like I I if you made me guess what I thought zotus
Would be I would have even gone lower I think they would have put him at 33 just based on the name brand recognition alone but what number would you need to see next to zalot Taurus’s name to to bet him this week in the same way with
Ludvic I feel like his strengths are negated here they are so why do I want to get into that and that’s a healthy zotus a healthy zotus totally agree totally agree I’ll bet will zotus I’ll bet him plenty do not worry I will I will get it in this year the second I
See it if I see the signs I need to see I would not be afraid to run and bet him to win a major but what I’m not going to do is bet him to win a tournament where you’re going to need to get to like 26
Under 28 under like totally agree that’s just not the spot I’m betting Willie Z at so yes what the number is I kind of look through them obviously there’s always a number You’ll Play The Ceiling You’ll Play the talent but I I just a total disinterest I would rather play some old boring
Plotter um all right we’re gonna do a quick trivia time with Jeff and Andy before we do the long shots do you know who was the number one approach player in the field on Sunday at capala Jeff he almost shot 59 oh I see this yes Justin
Rose in fu go um seems like he yeah seems like he could be a perfect course fit uh partner in crime Pat Mayo already got in on Justin Rose I that’s my third betat of the day yeah 5560 to one I think out of the gates this morning obviously people woke
Up to what happened with him over the weekend he does he does seem like he could 125 and put putt lights out here um so that does make sense I I do want to follow up and say I don’t I you don’t need to care what the guy did at the
Sentry like yes it’s obviously amazing what Justin Rose did but you look at a guy um you see like a guy like Keegan Bradley I saw he lost nearly eight Strokes putting as we get into long shot well I was gonna I was gonna ask you
What you thought about hii at 50 to one yeah but but like these are such different courses like you look at the those greens and like yeah I’m sure Keegan had a horrible time putting on those greens M your ball striking does can save you where you’re not putting
Like three tiered greens like you are Masters in quotations on green so a lot like we’ve seen a lot of guys have historically his horrible statistical weeks at the century and then come to uh why Li and be fantastic Kevin nod just a couple years ago like if you put him in
Your models before that week would been red red red from the senty but you know they’re just working out the cobweb so I don’t know there’s still some narrative Street to go on I don’t mind Keegan at all I think he can ball strike the out of this place hii Matsuyama as long
As they keep posting that 50 it’s going to Temp me but I haven’t been there yet if I trust Cam Davis to keep the ball in play he’s got my attention but I want to even go farther down the list Andy uh it’s a guy like ailano Grio using the
Odds Checker G I’ve seen it 100 to1 um that is a guy that could have a bit of my uh attention as it’s time to make some bets as well um with these tiny greens I don’t know maybe it could be just inur time but I wouldn’t be afraid
To dip into the long shots here one bit uh I would add Ben Griffin to the list we just know him as like a short course Bermuda guy Ben Kohl’s is a player um that I would watched this year on the PGA tour he’s he’s a rookie but
Kind of not a rookie at the same time like he’s played on the PGA tour in the past but he’s a corn fairy tour graduate that’s getting another stab at it he’s played this golf golf course before hit the ball pretty well in both of his appearances they came a couple years ago
And finished fifth at the RSM classic to end the fall swing so he ended 2023 on a really strong note was one of the best players on the corn fairy tour last year and he’s actually gotten a luck at a lot of these PGA tourque courses so Ben
Cole’s 100 to one maybe it’s a top 20 for you a DraftKings play but just pay attention to him and there’s a lot of guys Andy like this is the week where like you’re betting almost to a profile and by that I mean if someone like showed me their beding card and it
Was like coocher and Rose and Harris English and Brendan Todd I was like yeah you’re playing to the profile like you can try while there are guys that me and you are betting at 40 to1 or 35 to1 in that range there are a lot of guys at 100 to1
Who have the the exact winners profile of past champions here um now I know that’s a bit of a Choose Your Own Adventure and a loaded statement but it’s not hard to make like the Sony profile God Tom Hog’s 125 to one a profile yeah I’m gonna I’m going to bet
That the second week get out that’s too high for and he was he was striking it not that I said moment after saying don’t overrate what you saw the good or bad at at the sentury um yeah I don’t mind that at all and on that note Cory Conor wasn’t exactly having the
Strongest Sentry and we’re happy to play him here what we feel is a perfect absolutely perfect layout we haven’t talked about the past champion who will certainly rise this week Andy uh are you talking uh are talking about coer SEI wo won last year yeah
Yeah seiw he certainly did SE W won last year um and like I I don’t think he’s on my short list I don’t know if he’ll end up making my final card but 40 to one um that’s more than fair to me right I I
Would say that I mean I hit him at 60 to1 last year this is a better field um we didn’t have ludvig and Hatton uh and Fitz Patrick playing uh we didn’t have a super inform Chris Kirk and you know so uh I think the suu
Number is one of the most most Fair on the board and to your call out on Tom hogi like just looking at the odds Checker grid as high as 125 to1 as low as 80 to one there is not uh a total consensus on him this week but that
Could be an interesting that could be an interesting PLL because he he loves everything that’s he everything that’s required here sort of calling out um the Tom hogi profile there’re few guys I want to trust but it just depends Caesars by the way Jeffrey it’s a rare shout from
Caesar which we seems to have really good prices this week so shout out to Caesar sports book and Alex SMY our guy also 125 to one I want to just run one guy at you who’s always seemed to be the betters you know and sort of Niche internet part uh world
That we live in was very popular or um well other guys are sticking with other players who can’t win this guy’s sort of not on the on the good list anymore Stephen Jagger as high as 66 to1 as low as 45 to1 on the grid he was a guy I
Thought I’d see more uh yeah of the golf nerds just hoping for the putt lock that that has come for bad putters here you know it’s a what have you done for me lately League Jeffrey we haven’t seen him since mid November at the RSM let a lot of people down myself included
During the fall swing and we didn’t see him at capala so I think a lot of people are just going to play the horses that they saw and got familiarized with a capalo and yeah that’s a interesting spot for jger like I said you know about last 20 years
75% have played Capa so you know you could it’s a roar Shack test you can take that however you want it’s not impossible uh it’s not it’s certainly happened uh in the past before uh We’ve certainly seen a lot of guys play capalo and play really bad at capala and then
Win the Sony Open as you’ve alluded to um but it’s it’s our first full field Tournament of the Year Jeff I’m super hyped about it um last week in Hawaii and then man we get right into it we got like MX is maybe a bit of a DT but then
We go into Tory MX field is strong friend I’ve seen early commitments there I think JT’s making his bigger there’s like way better yeah for you’re be shocked even with Rah like not being there who was a staple I was shocked at some of the commitments uh but until
Until we hit up California Andy we’re g to leave Hawaii we’re both going to be on Cory Connor I feel like I will also not be able to avoid the Chris Curry uh trying to catch a a a backto back hard enough Grio are my picks thus far
And any I saw you’ve got your great article up at oddschecker.com so go check that out where you put upy you put up Connor’s Poston you’ve mentioned Justin Rose on here any other shouts I’m gonna bet Tom hogi the second we finish recording and I’m going to bet
One of Cam Davis and Hideki TB I link Cam Davis but that okay I feel silly even saying that after because that could get burned but I feel like Cam Davis is uh he’s another guy could be circling around this week as well certainly certainly certainly
Interested um all right that will do it from Jeffrey and I as we mentioned we will be back next week for the American Express good luck with all of your bets this week enjoy this final week in Hawaii and we will see you next time cheers
