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It’s Sports by the book at the South Point Studio here’s Jeff parl welcome into sports by the book here at the South Point Studio first Saturday of 2024 I’m Jeff parles Alex white alongside good morning Alex good morning and we’ve got a very busy Saturday it put it politely very busy
Saturday uh this is the first of eight Mega college basketball Saturdays where we get about a 100 30 PA games today it’s 144 you have all 144 prepped yeah I’d be lying if I said yes don’t worry I even missed some as well but we have
Those to get we have a a lot to get to a bunch of really good ranked teams in action today a fascinating one where I know where gambling Twitter is going to be on one game that’s early today we’ll discuss Kentucky and Florida where you have an unranked team getting steamed in
The market overnight as a favorite at home against a top five Squad in the wild cats but we have football to talk about first today by the way before we get into this Jim Harbaugh today their media days in Houston for the national championship game on Monday which as uh I I don’t
Know if you’re knew out there uh Washington and Michigan as we know yes uh two big 10 Rivals now Alex yes uh four and a half behind us there’s some four in the market on this game Jim Harbaugh was asked today about his future and his quote was quote the
Future I hope to have one very good Jim very good we all hope to have a future uh moving forward of course we we know Harbaugh I think he’s going to end up being the coach of the Chargers but that is a different discussion for a different day uh of course Michigan will
Have their day on Monday as a favorite win their first national title in over 20 years if he has if you think he’s going to La where do you think belich is going going I don’t know but not La okay that’s all I’ll say I don’t know I don’t
Know uh probably an NFC team I just don’t know which ones other than Carolina Washington will be open but that’ll be a different different discussion for a different time because as soon as belich is then relieved at the duties in New England we can have a
Better sense I think let’s go to uh let’s go to Pittsburgh and Baltimore first our guy Sean in the corner Sean I all I saw was a Steeler Jersey who who are you wearing today who do I think I have no idea who I think you wearing rothberger yeah it’s not rothberger what
Are we what do we got we got watt we got watt there we go yeah we got got TJ watt number 90 our guy Sean The Talk The Talk anytime touch that PJ wat very good very good uh Pittsburgh we know we talked about this on football Friday you and I
Talked about this on Thursday Pittsburgh needs to win and get help to get into the postseason Baltimore already locked in into the number one seed this game is a 4:30 East 130 Pacific Time start for this one in Baltimore Maryland it’s three totals 34 you’re seeing you’re seeing Baltimore
Actually get bed in the marketplace because you’re starting to see some three evens on Pittsburgh so we may see some two and a halfs pop at some point today I would imagine they would get gobbled up pretty quickly even if you’re laying a120 at some other shops of
Course not happening here it’s all 11 to 10 behind us here at the South Point Alex what as we’re now on the day of the game what are your thoughts here what have you played what do you definitely not playing in this one with this great rivalry so I’m really excited about
These two games today I think we’re going to have some chaos in one way or another that’s I’m always in on that I think there’s definitely value here taking the points with the Ravens I mean we’re talking about a team who cares about preseason games so you know
They’re going to be ready for this one as well Tyler Huntley is one of the best backups that we have have in the league I’m not saying that the Ravens are going to win this game but taking three points with them at home against one of their biggest Rivals I think there’s value
There when the line on the underdog is plus three and a half or higher the underdog is 19 and2 ATS between these two the Steelers have won six of their last seven meetings against the Ravens including a 1710 win in week five so that’s kind of where that Underdog fits
In there right 19 and2 ATS the Steelers are typically in that spot but did win outright in six of the last seven Tomlin Steelers though 15 and 26 ATS as Road favorites here so now they’re in a different position as the favorite I just looking for Value I think it would
Be on the Ravens I haven’t played anything yet excited about this one we’ll see if the Steelers can keep doing what they’ve done all year long finding a way and getting themselves in the playoffs I will give Pittsburgh this Mason Rudolph has played genuinely well the last two weeks
Which is for lack of a better word stunning that Mason Rudolph who we’ve seen is he’s a career backup he’s the mediocre quarterback at best but he’s been Pittsburgh’s best quarterback this year and it’s really not even been close and for the Steelers Rudolph is an impending free agent if the Steelers win
This game and sneak into the back through the back door into the playoffs with a buffalo loss uh on Sunday night I wouldn’t be shocked that Mason Rudolph is a starting quarterback for week one next year I think that’s as bad as it can possibly be if you’re
Pittsburgh but I wouldn’t be shocked if that ends up happening off of what we’ve seen this last month even if they were to make the playoffs and get crushed by Miami in round one but this is the one thing that I will say and part of the
Reason I don’t have a bet on this game even though I think at three it’s fair if you want to lay it out with with Pittsburgh I get why people took numbers earlier in the week with Baltimore with all the St with most of the starters
Sitting out no Lamar no obj um it does look like those linebackers are at least going to play a half for Baltimore which was in question this week it is a r it is still to me the best rivalry in NF these two teams hate each other more than anything
And I think even with their backups in Baltimore would love the torpedo Pittsburgh season for good we saw it again in 2019 Steelers needed to win Ravens already had the one seed locked Baltimore one outright that that was I got all the way to six that was a a
Really nice money line price granted I think this Pittsburgh team is better than that one was in 2019 just because this version of Mason Rudolph’s better than that version of Mason Rudolph and duck Hodes who both playing de in that game so I’m staying off the total is interesting though at
34 I feel like it’s too low I agree personally I I feel like it’s too low the first meeting between these teams it was 1710 but Pittsburgh’s offense has been a different offense these last two weeks with Rudolph 45 and 53 the last two weeks I know it’s Baltimore’s backups I
Know their defense even with their backups are still really good I feel like this total is too low though Alex I agree it’s really hard though to to gauge so we were doing team totals yesterday on punch lines with Frank and Steelers team total is 20 and a half so
I was looking at past games and on the road last one they won 30 to 23 at Seattle we know that Mason Rudolph on the road but then before that it was all priest Mason Rudolph so they lost 30 to 13 to the Colts they won 1610 and then
They lost to the Browns we know that by three so it’s tough It’s like which team are we getting here but to your point Mason Rudolph has been very impressive and I was concerned with him last week going on the road in Seattle it’s a tough place to play he took care of
Business got them this far it will get interesting so you’re talking about next year but Kenny picket is now healthy again right so if they make it into the playoffs they haven’t announced who will be the quarterback going forward but I would think they would have to stick with the
Hot hand I if Pittsburgh makes the playoffs assuming Mason Rudolph does not get injured in this game Mason Rudolph has to start the playoff I just the way that it’s going to be uh for for the Steelers here in this run where again I don’t think this
Team’s any good I think of the granted it’s an AFC playoff picture where between them and the two AFC South teams that are battling tonight you’re going to have at least one weak team in the AFC playoffs maybe even two if Pittsburgh wins and then Jacksonville wins tomorrow in Tennessee and then
Buffalo B uh Falls to Miami on Sunday night again it’s whoever gets those two that two seed is gonna have a really nice matchup in round one whether it’s Buffalo or Miami drawing either pittsburgher the winner of this AFC South match up tonight did you bet any
Props in this game or did you stay off no props so I did we’re talking about Harbaugh and what he said this morning I do think it is really funny obj tweeted because a lot of tweets going out there about incentives for players and you know getting bonuses and he tweeted on
There don’t bet online and then it was announced that he wasn’t playing so no um I if I was going to look at a prop here it would probably be uh Harris for for the Steelers running back Naji Harris anytime touchdown you would go anytime touchdown
On Naji okay I uh I have nothing Naji by the way plus between plus 115 and plus 160 in the market on anytime touchdown excuse me plus 150 uh shop shop around that’s right for that uh the best number you can possibly get Melvin Gordon by
The way is gonna get the bulk of the carries today for Baltimore how about that you ready for that Melvin good Melvin Gordon and Dalvin cook on the same I was gonna say what about dvin cook he’ll I don’t think Cook’s gonna play I think they signed him to the
Practice squad yesterday I don’t think he’s gonna get promoted to the full-time roster who knows though maybe he will it would make a lot of sense if he scored a touchdown can we talk about this for a second please because I did bring it up on Frank’s show too but I want your
Actual opinion about this because I I know you didn’t love Alvin cook on the Jets and he took away a lot of carries from Bree Hall how do you see this going forward for the Ravens is this helpful or I mean they’ve been so good I think it’s relevant personally I
For them an extra body someone gets hurt I get it I think Alvin cook is done I don’t think he can move anymore but knows maybe that’s just that the jet offense was so pathetic it took him down with him but I I think he’s toast uh as
A runner I just think he’s not the same guy but Baltimore there’s nothing to lose right if he’s not good he just doesn’t play so nothing to lose on that very good okay and what about MVP race here because we know Lamar Jackson is sitting out today so so I I think it’s
Pretty simple on this Lamar’s already won the award uh it’s done and and you know it’s just for Jackson his second MVP award they’ve now coincided with Baltimore getting the one seed of course 2019 I thought he was better in 2019 than he was this year but in a year
Where let’s be honest with ourselves this was a weak MVP year where Lamar timed his run right he’s played his best football the last month of the Season even though he had a weird game against the Niners but he was brilliant against the Dolphins on La last Sunday it’s over
He he’s won the award doesn’t matter he’s not going to play today uh the only awards that I I would say are still up for grabs uh comeback player to year I’m curious to see how the voters do it I think Hamlin’s going to win but I would
Vote for flacko personally and then coach of the year is the other one where I the game will get to in a second yeah there’s a legitimate argument to be made the winner of the game tonight should that coach should be coach of the year now
For Houston I think the Mec o will get hurt in that voting by the fact that CJ strout’s going to win offensive H in the year I don’t think that’s fair right but I think that’s the voters will say oh we’re not going to vote two Texans for
Major Awards here and then for stien I mean he had a starting quarterback for three games win 10 games with a win no voters don’t look at win totals I’m going to look at win totals exceeding your win total by three and a half is a big deal that is a huge e
Exceeding of expectations I would say Sten has a better C case than Ryan’s personally I think his roster is actually worse uh and his quarterback is worse but when it’s all done said and done if stefansky doesn’t win it’s ridiculous because they’re gonna be playing five quarterbacks this year because
Driscoll’s starting tomorrow and you win 11 games maybe 12 if you pull the upset with Drisco playing tomorrow that’s absurd that’s as good of a coaching job as you’re ever going to see they lost Nick chub in week two they’ve had terrible offensive line injuries I think stefansky should win
Pretty close to unanimously and that’s not to say there’s other great candidates out there the coaching job by stepansky has just been so outrageously great that he should win the award going away I would say he’s had very good quarterback step in though I mean even
With DTR and PJ Walker they did good I I think Sten I’m with you on that case against uh Ryan with those two because they really haven’t flinched at all with losing Anthony Richardson and then menu jumping in and we saw with the Texans C.J stry might be an offensive player of
The year a rookie player offensive rookie yep offensive Rookie of the Year um but when he was out and had those injuries we saw the big drop with the Texans I haven’t seen that with the Colts I mean they’ve stayed very steady but I mean you’re right there’s a case
For all three of them and they’ve all done a fantastic job yeah I I just don’t I I just in the end I I still think stefansky when you have that many quarterbacks backs yeah and it’s funny that the fourth one Flo has been the best of all all of them this year
But look for the Browns and again we’re talking about the Cleveland Browns here be two playoff appearances of four years that Kevin stefansky guy is pretty good at this head coaching thing well that defense is legit oh yeah even though I think the defense has played a little
Bit worse over the last few weeks than people are acknowledging because they’ve been winning because of their offense all right let’s go to the other game tonight this Line’s really starting to take off Alex as high as two and a half in the market now in Houston wow uh it’s one and a
Half behind us total’s 47 and a half Texans at the Colts is open Indie is a favorite now Houston is favored we’re now getting to the point where even though I like Houston in the game you can’t bet it you missed it you missed it you can’t do it I wouldn’t
Chase a bad number on the Texans I just wonder here with how aggressive the market has been betting a again these are two teams that the way they are put together now are not used to the situation Houston hasn’t been relevant since 2019 the Colts have not been relevant
Similarly yet I made the playoffs with Philip Rivers and Frank Wright 20120 I understand that Carson Wentz and that team was a win away the last two weeks from being in the playoffs totally different group totally different coaching sta I’m just curious to see how both of these teams handled the moment tonight
Total 47 and a half which is the second highest of the week Alex I’m not chasing a bad number I don’t know if I would imagine you’re in the same boat that if you like Houston don’t bother but the way this has gone I would wait if I’m
Like Indie this thing could touch three with the way this Market is going if it does touch three I might jump in with the Colts I haven’t made a bet I do lean to the Texans one of the things that scares me with the Colts is you love
This Pro Football Focus NFL luck rakings Indie second luckiest this year and we’ve seen that all year along with them Colts also are very zon heavy defense and CJ strout has done fantastic second best quarterback against cover three so I think the Texans will find a way here
They always do you know I love Colts overs I just think this one’s a little high I’m going to wait and see if it’s a slow start because the Colts have only gone over in the first half totals I mean the Texans have only gone over in
The first half totals once this year so of a little slow start if I can get a better number I will jump on the over because I think we’re going to see fireworks in this second half might be a a shootout going back and forth both playing for their season
Here so regardless of what happens in this game we’ve already I mentioned it before whoever loses this game still had a a year where they went way over the win total both over 500 teams that I don’t think I will say this I think both of these teams are natural regression
Candidates next year especially Indianapolis where it’s going to be Anthony Richardson’s de facto rookie year on the field again even though he played a little bit and he looked okay in the in the limited action he had this year and for Houston that that defense has to get
Better and also by the way we’re talking about a division where they could get two playoff teams out of the AFC South the whole South Division has a negative Point difference so you’re looking at all these teams where natural regression next year and I understand hey yeah I
Know we have a whole playoffs to get through already I’m getting my mind ready for potential wind tuttles to look at and potentially go after next year with uh again excuse me by the way Houston is now positive Point differential after the blood when they were negative going
In the last week but see how it plays out tonight in Indie it is it is a a tough game at the current numbers to bet prop wise I have nothing the only guy I’d look to attack tonight is Mike Pitman though that would be the only way
To look the go I kind of um am on the other side with you I think the Texans might have more more of a regression with the film being out on CJ Stout and I think and Anthony Richardson’s pretty good I’m excited to see him in a full
Year next year I love how he played very quick got his offense going up and down the field so we’ll see I mean I think you make a very valid point though keep these two in mind for next year with win totals looking to the under let’s take a quick break when we
Get back we’re going to look at college hoops we got a lot to get to in in this day I had a list of what was it 15 games that I like to had leans on which means those will probably be good as opposed to the ones I bet including some line
Movement on one early involving a top 10 team we’ll discuss it next Sports by the book here at the South Point Studio once you’ve satisfied your hunger get ready for more of the hottest casino games in Vegas our 24-hour 30 table non-smoking Poker Room proudly hosts all
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Bet right from your [Applause] seat welcome back in it’s Sports by the book here at the South Point Studio I’m Jeff parles Alex White’s here as well we’re happy to be with you as always the first Saturday of 2024 which means it’s the first Saturday where there are roughly 1,000 College
Basketball games here on the card uh we’ll we’ll go through the ones that caught RI here today and let’s just start right out of the gate here starting at the top of the hour a lot more actually than usual at this noon Eastern window here today and there’s a
Bunch of good ones let’s start with Marquette and ceden Hall last time we saw Marquette hardfought game got it done one and covered against kraton uh at F serve in Milwaukee now to get seeden Hall where been an interesting year for Shaheen howay and the Pirates this year
Where get out they beat the mediocre teams on the schedule right out right out of the gate they get go out to San Diego for a neutral site Thanksgiving tournament lose to a USC team that is underachieved Alex lose to an Iowa team that I really don’t think is any good at
All uh and then they lose to Balor nothing wrong with that going to wakeo that’s a really difficult game and then they goes to Ruckers Who’s down this year and really has no offense go in the Big East play you beat Yukon right out of the gate and he’ll flip around and
Lose to Xavier and then get a big win against Providence in a game where Bryce Hopkins suffered the season end ending injury for the for the friar Alex it’s five you’re starting to see some five and a half in the market total’s 145 behind us it’s mostly 144 on this total
Ken palom has this at five and 145 so that these numbers mirroring that system I like Marquette personally I don’t think this is the greatest matchup for seeden hall now I have I expected seeden Hall’s defense to be better by now Alex they’re 87th in the country Solid not great but I think
Their guards are going to have a tough time slowing down marquette’s back court in this game I agree so you said it impressive conference play so far for C Hall and the Pirates are also 7- one at home but now they face a team that scores 78 points a game and has
Outscored their opponents by 11.6 per game seen Hall might have the advantage in the paint 36.5 rebounds and 4.6 blocks per game but I’m with you I think Marquette has the advantage in basically every other area and I don’t think they’ll be able to slow them down I
Think the numers right I just don’t love laying that five points on the road yeah it’s it’s I don’t love it either I’m not a huge fan of usually going out and laying especially in power five plus Big East games laying points on the road I just think Marquette is that much
Better personally and and look if ceden Hall comes out and play like they did against Yukon I’m gonna lose and and there’s so many games during this college basketball season I’m gonna lose plenty of them this year uh other games at noon that I will say I do have uh I
Do have a bet on LEL plus the five against forom okay Lal last time we saw them uh they plus to Howard and it’s a good little bounceback spot against the forom team that I think is okay I I I don’t think they should be that big of a
Favorite they also lost to George Mason as well LEL nice little good bounce back spot getting five on the road I think that’s okay uh as well other games at this time South Carolina currently a three-point home dog against Mississippi State Georgetown six and a half Point
Favored down from Seven against the Paul ruter and Iowa 6 and a half with Iowa right now I have nothing on any of those you don’t want to talk about that one those are two of your favorite there I’m I’m good contrast to Styles total is
Dictated that it’s going to be an Iowa Pace game of 153 I tend to agree with it with the game being in Iowa City let’s go to a game that was mentioned earlier on the week on the show though K McKim brought it up was looking at Clemson
Against North Carolina and you know what the whole Market’s been looking at Clemson in this game up to three on the Clemson Tigers against North Carolina we did see it touch three and a half quickly here at the South Point so it is back down from that three and a half
Earlier but overnight it was one and a half two in the places that had it up uh early in the uh last night I can’t get there at this number on Clemson I’m not going to follow Kai here I’m going to stay off of this game
You on the other hand I think are going the opposite direction of Kai in this game I am I took the three with North Carolina I might even take a little on the money line 2 and0 right now in conference to start I think they keep
That roll in here even on the road I just really like this North Carolina team I think they have come so far from last year we know they have a good roster they just were not clicking last year and now they’re playing very well together Clemson they are coming off a
Loss to Miami so that worries me a little bit because teams do get up the next game and they will be ready but I’m going with the tar Hills here I like this one you know it’s it’s a contrast to Styles in a way where North Carolina still is one of the
Fastest teams in the country Clemson they’re mid- tier Pace wise they’re technically in the bottom half but they’re mid- tier really because a lot of that country is between 68 and a half and 69 and a half possessions Clemson’s off the loss earlier in the week in Coral Gables this
Does kind of scream bounceback for Clemson for me the problem is the number I I was hoping that this would be a pick personally if it was a pick I would have in I would have bet Clemson now that I’m laying three and laying a nice
Reasonable price on the money line at a $155 now I would lean to your direction of taking the three with North Carolina I don’t know if I’d get there on a money line but I would lean to that at these numbers that are out there right now and
I get why the markets back climbs in early I I get I get why this got bet up and I get why the markets come back on North Carolina uh earlier this morning uh one other ACC game at the top of the hour neither of us have a play on pit and Louisville
Just kind of shows how bad Louisville is at this point is that they’re as big as a nine-point dog at home against pit I was going to say I I do like Pittsburgh in this spot but not nine points not nine I can’t do that on the road uh
Let’s go to one that gambling Twitter is GNA love because it’s the good old Road ranked team is a dog against the unranked team that’s playing at home and this is a top five team that’s a dog on the road here Kentucky and Florida at the old
Oome in uh Gainesville it’s three and a half right now Kentucky dealing with injuries as they have all year this is really the best shot Florida’s had at an elite team Alex I think the Market’s overthinking this personally I get why Florida came a small favorite last night I understand
It good home good home court good team by the way this total is 170 in this one which is very high for this uh this this game even though I think the total’s right Alex you and I are in the same camp here there’s even a four that’s in
The market on Kentucky that’s just too much to pass for me I like the cats and I’m going to take a little piece on the money line call me Square if you want but Florida when they’ve had opportunities this year against better competition you and I discussed this before the
Show their three best opponent against Kemp they own three lost to Virginia they lost the Balor lost comfortably on the road in Winston Salem against wake they have not elevated their game well against non-con good teams there’s no reason to think at least for me in the
Conference opener to that it’s going to turn against Kentucky you make great points I think Florida should have been about a one-point favorite here so it is a play on the number taking the three and a half with Kentucky both season open conference games for these two
Gators are 6 and0 at home but you mentioned it they haven’t played anyone really tough at home this year and then KY shooting 50% from the field and they’re allowing just 73.4 points per game so I know what they have injuries but I think they can get it keep it
Close in this one and possibly even win the game yeah I I just think the price is too steep that’s all it is I think it’s too steep on Florida again I I get the opening opening overnights I still like Kentucky but I understood it uh on
The Gators but just too much too much in the end here all right St John’s and Villanova up next Nova three and a half at home total 143 and a half on this one two teams that are still still sorting themselves out Nova we’ve talked about it they’ve been better the last month
After that three-game losing streak and they just couldn’t beat the the Philly teams for whatever reason this year coming off a nice win at home found a way got it done onepoint win against the Musketeers a Xavier earlier in the week the Johnny’s good win to open conference or
To open the uh the new year of conference play earlier in the week a win against Butler by 16 that game wasn’t even really that close uh playing at their Pace Villanova right now three and a half against the Johnnies 143 and a half Alex so I was really looking for dogs
Today but I do think uh Villanova should be a little bit higher here against St John’s they’ve kind of overachieved talking about defense though Villanova is 17th but I just don’t think they’ve really looked that strong yet this year so that kind of makes me a little a
Little nervous here I didn’t lay the points yet but I lean towards Villanova in this one this is a big time pass for me big time pass and it’s because of the tempos in this game Villanova plays very slow they’re 328th in adjusted Tempo in the country
Just so you know there’s 36 two teams so they’re in the bottom basically of of tempo St John’s they’re in the top 100 71.2 possessions 71.2 possessions a game for Rick patino in company and they’re only gonna get better as the year goes along we know I still even at even at
His age I still think Rick patino is the best coach in country for college hoops I really do and we all know why he taking this round about path to St John’s but the man can coach basketball right and I expect St John’s by the end
Of the year to be a top four team in the Big East I think they went outright personally today think they went outright on the road uh that that would be the only thing I’d look at uh in this one I also don’t mind the total over
It’s kind of correlated you like St John’s it’s GNA go over if you like Villanova it’s going to go under here just because that’s whoever I I would say covers this game the pace that’s right will have been dictated by them in this one all right Kansas and TCU up
Next you know I’ll say this for Kansas nine-point favorites against TCU where I don’t want to say the horn frogs have been exposed recently but they’ve been exposed recently and Kansas only has one loss the metrics are not as good as you would anticipate for this KU team
They’re 15th and kenpom despite the fact that they’re 12- one and they started the season in the top five TCU same sort of thing as we mentioned earlier with Florida whenever they’ve taken a step up and competition they’ve gotten rocked they lost by eight against Clemson that game was really not that competitive
They lost by 13 against Nevada in a game where the bull Packer up as much as 25 so this is a monster step up for the conference opener for TCU today it’s nine on Kansas I’m staying off but I would only look to lay the favorite at
Home here in this one I agree I mean TCU I would say that Nevada team is is pretty good in the Mountain West yeah pretty solid so they are four and one in their last five but they you’re right they haven’t played that many good teams so I think Kansas is deserving of
Being a nine-point favorite here I do think they are one of the top five teams in the country so stay away from me as well but should be an interesting one yeah best home court in the country by by my numbers and opinion there at fog
Allen and uh he was has has won there in recent years they got they got Kansas to years ago and arguably the biggest win in program history for TCU all right let’s go to Providence and Kaden next Providence without Bryce Hopkins his season is done after a
Season ending injury earlier in the week Kayon is 11-point favorites in this one against the Friars total 141 a half Alex how are they betting this one how are they betting this one so kadon on the overnights at some spots were 10 behind us they just popped the total
From 139 and a half to 141 and a half I am you know I did have Kaden as a potential at the 10 I I just I it sometimes when you have best player on a team get hurt the next game that team so this will work for
Providence does come out with with a big effort but we I’ve been waiting for Katon to have one of these games where they look like the top 10 team that people thought they were going to be they only unranked in the AP pole they’re 16th in kenpom think Ken pom’s
Number is more right than the AP pole Shocker on that one but I’m staying I’m staying off of this I’m staying off of this I think the number just got too steep here on kadon I’m with you I was just curious because seeing that number 23 next to Providence I would think some
Of the public betters would be jumping all over the points there with this one but you’re right I just I’m not that big on kraton yet so we’ll see if they can turn it around they just live live and die by the three so if they can get it
Going then we know that they’ll cover this easily but if not then they could be in a little bit of trouble here let’s uh go Arkansas and Auburn next Auburn two and a half on the road in fville Arkansas has been a humongous underachiever so far this year
Still top-notch Talent we know this we know that the muscleman team have big time talent but they’re 59th in kenpom they’re nine and four quite frankly I’m surprised they’re that hot they do have the win against Duke which is part of the reason they’re even in
The top 60 right now in kenpom but every time I’ve watched them they’ve been unimpressive and they look like a poorly coached team but this is kind of what the pattern is for muslin they they he has a group that if you’re betting them you want to basically scream at them the
Whole time but they’re immensely talented and this is the conference opener against an Auburn team that I think has been much better than I thought they were going to be I thought they were a borderline top 2015 coming into the year they’re 10th and kenpom other than that weird loss they took in
Boon North Carolina against a pretty good Appalachian State team they lose on a neutral to Balor they’ve ripped through everyone else the problem is Alex I think that top 10 kenpom ranking is kind of like the BYU ranking think it’s a little bit fraudulent because they’ve really destroyed the bad teams
On their resume and have part of that has boosted their Analytics number I like Arkansas today outright at home this is a different test for Auburn and this is usually around the time where Arkansas starts to figure things out I I think it’s a reasonable price if you can
Get a $130 on the money line I would grab it$ do25 is good as well I like the Hogs outright in this game I’m with you I think um this game could have been a pick them here between these two so I’m going to take the points here with
Arkansas I mean really their losses have come to top teams so this I think they’ll be good at home hosting Auburn here and they are 7- one at home this year fifth in the SEC and scoring 82.3 points while shooting 48% from the field
So I like that like for them to get hot here but tigers are five and0 in their last five as you mentioned so should be a good game let’s go to Houston’s First game as a big 12 member in conference here cougars and West Virginia so a great draw for Houston their first
Conference game as they play the worst team in the league by a pretty significant margin right out of the gate 21 and a half behind us total’s 134 and a half it’s mostly 21 in the market on this game I see all those points and I’m pretty tempted to take it with West
Virginia now I don’t know if I’m gonna get there on that because this is a Mount near team that really can’t play offense and their defense is pretty average to put it the politely and you’re going up against Houston well look I’m G to I think I’m going to be a
Little bit skeptical of Houston until they show it in conference play against the higher end level of competition their best win on kenpom is that win against A&M which is a good solid win but A&M was without two of their key guys in that game they did beat Utah to
Neutral good win UT are pretty good but this is not a tell tell telltell game here I’m staying off we’re g to really learn what this team is all about Tuesday when they go to ases to take on a game Cyclones team now one that will be a good game you’re right
This West Virginia Team 5 and8 on the air and offense they’re ranked 177 right now so it’s a lot of points but I don’t feel comfortable grabbing it you’re always kind of looking at those top teams and seeing what they’re laying and I didn’t feel comfortable laying 21 and
A half with Houston today either so stay away from me let’s go Nebraska Wisconsin next uh the Badgers you know I I did not expect much out of this Badger team either but their only losses are to Tennessee Providence and Arizona nothing wrong with anything I just mentioned especially with early season Providence
Uh they beat Michigan stayed in East Lancing they handled Iowa in their in the uh the conference opener of the New Year here earlier in the week and now they get Nebraska H there in uh in Madison it’s six and a half Nebraska I think Nebraska is actually a little
Underrated in kenpom they’re 49th their two losses are to Katon okay nothing wrong with that I know they got crushed in that game but Katon is still a really good basketball team and they lost to Minnesota who is improving Minnesota got a really nice win on the road at an
Arbor earlier in the week against Michigan uh they beat Indiana by 16 earlier in the week uh at home in Lincoln I think there’s too many points I I like Nebraska plus the six and a half and this Market has not moved at all overnight which kind of makes me
Think that this number is Right based off of what the books put out here and I’m going to trust trust my uh trust myself and my numbers on this and I thought Nebraska should have been four and a half in this game I’ll take the extra two and take the Huskers getting
Six and a half in this one at on the road at the Cole Center you’re right probably two-way action here keeping that number right there but Wisconsin you’re right they have been very impressive 14 ranked in offense and 29th in defense so they’re very well-rounded as well think the numberers just right
I’m going to have to stay away and watch this one and get a better feel of Nebraska yeah it’s you know it’s they look like a tournament team and Nebraska’s basketball program hasn’t been there very often no so be a really nice uh step in the in the direction and
Then for a year where hyberg has been was on his seene was hot going into the air getting into the tournament will cool that thing way off uh there in Lincoln all right let’s go to myami and wake FL actually a pretty intriguing game in the ACC another one the number hasn’t moved
Been four through the through the overnights hasn’t moved on the overnight much at all was a little bit of four and a half for a little bit but that’s all gone now it’s back to four it was there pretty quickly total 159 Kane’s got that really good win
Against Clemson earlier in the week Wake Forest improving finally under Steve Forbes we’ve been waiting for this I Lov them at ETSU now he’s finally improved this wake team to at least be a a uh a a potential NCA tournament team uh a year after where they were on the wrong side
Of the bubble last year with that said I like Miami I I like the canes getting the points I expect this to be a wild Pace game where this is just going to be up and down action a total at 159 if anything might be a little light but I favor Miami I
Just like Mi I I still think that Miami a team that was in the final four a year ago I understand they lost pieces but three of those key pieces are back and I think part of the reason their metrics look as bad as they do where
They’re 47th you look at the two losses they took they got walloped in Kentucky and they got annihilated by Colorado so the metrics over to me this is the one problem with the metrics here they overrate blowouts on both sides where it just could have been a bad a bad day for
You and Miami to me is about probably 32nd best team in the country and they’re 47 the Gom I think those numbers are off personally uh so that’s why I like the four with the canes would not be shocked if this is all the way out
Right here that is funny they do over um exaggerate on those because you’re right those two losses they could have just given up in the fourth quarter and it got out of hand there and then like BYU we see them beat up on bad teams and
They are rated very high but I’m with you on this one Wake Forest really hasn’t played anyone good and when they did I mean they lost to Georgia and Utah in week in their second and third games this year and then they’ve been on a nice winning streak but no one really
Great here so I think it’s a big step up for them I think four is way too me way too many points to be laying for Wake here let’s get Balor and Oklahoma State here the Bears of course coming in uh with two wins against Cornell and Mississippi Valley State the last two
Times out after those back-to-back losses again I like Michigan State that day they ran them out of the building in Detroit and you lose the Duke at MSG I’m not going to hold those against you uh they take on the Cowboys here where you’re looking at Balor as a fivepoint
Favorite in this one with a total of 147 Alex just uh I I think this number is right I I’m going to stay off of this this may be an in-game scenario where if the pokes get out to a lead I’m getting a discount on Balor that would be the
Way to look to play this one completely agree because I was definitely looking at the Baylor side here think it’s too many points great idea take it in play vanderbild and Alabama’s up next B 13 and a half Point favorites on the road in Nashville 158 the total you know we
Have talked about Alabama a bunch on this show already I think they’re vastly overrated in the matchs vastly because when you’re built and and look part of the reason they’re vastly overrated is when they have played well this year they have annihilated teams we saw the last time out I liked them against
Liberty I didn’t expect that where they almost beat him by 50 they beat him by 45 in that one in Birmingham now to go on the road to Vandy where vandy’s bad they’re 203d in kenpom I I’m really disappointed in stack I thought stack house would have had this program at
Least a little better at this point and they’re not they beat dartman their last time out woohooo dartman 323 in the in the country in kenpom with that said though Alex and the market has agreed with me on this it’s just too many points it is and I I like the overnight
Number there’s still some 14 out there which was the overnight number at some shops Chris and Company put 13 and a half up uh on the uh the early morning portion of the overnights here just think it’s too many points for a conference game now can Alabama beat him
By 35 of course they can right if Bama comes out and is making their threes they’re capable of running anyone in the country out but on the road Memorial gymnasium is a weird place to play I think it’s too many points we’ll take we’ll take it with Vandy and if they get
Smacked they get smacked oh are you actually you’re going to take it I’ll take 14 I’ll take four there there’s 14 out there so I’ll take that okay I’m gonna stay away from this one you know I’m pretty high on Alabama but I don’t want to lay that many points on the road
Let’s go to Florida Atlantic and Charlotte next uh FAU after their second bizarre clunker of the Year where they lost the Florida GF Coast uh fa is we’ve seen the Spectrum for them yeah they’re the lows of losing the Bryant and and and Florida G Coast two teams that they
Have no business losing to and then they beat Arizona on a neutral and now they they beat ECU at home bounce back good spot on on Tuesday of the week one by 15 now to go on the road to Charlotte this Charlotte team is is the metrics actually show reasonable team
131 in kenpom not bad a game underwater I I think this a good matchup for FAU though because Charlotte’s gonna want to slow this thing down yes and as we’ve seen with FAU as long as they don’t just have the brutal shooting games that’s part of the
Reason they lost both of those two games they had no business losing they couldn’t shoot and for this game if fa is making the shots I think this should be can even though it’s a road game it’s a lean don’t think it’s quite strong enough to be a play but I
Would lean to the alow on the road again I get it conference game you want to be taking a bunch of points with home teams but I just think this is a good matchup for FAU and if Charlotte’s not making their shots they they might be lucky to
Get the 40 today I completely agree Charlotte really has no offense they’re ranked 187 in Kemp pom it’s their defense that’s been keeping them in these games and I like this Florida Atlantic team I I I think they can definitely cover this eight it’s it’s
Lean for me as well let’s go to UNLV in San Diego State next Alex this is uh this one’s for you the Aztecs eight and a half Point favorites in this one you know even in a year where it seems that the Mountain West is a little more up
For grabs Colorado state has been awesome Utah state looks to be back in their old form again I still think that the Aztecs are the best team in this in this league it’s a bad spot for UNLV at 8 and a half I’m not going to bet it but if you made
Me come out and bet this game I think I would lay it at VA hos with the Tex at home against UNL yeah I’m not going to do anything here it is a bad spot for unlb and going into San Diego State tough place to play um these two know
Each other very well I mean if UNLV can get hot and the Boon Brothers can uh put some points here they can keep it close um but I’m not going to bet it today yeah no we’re we’re in agreement we’re just going to stay off this one uh even
Though it would be a lean to San Diego State for me at V ahas let’s go to Old Miss and Tennessee next the vs at home right now 11 and a half Point favorites against Old Miss not much of a shock there Old Miss undefeated but non-believers in the
Metrics on this I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before Alex where Old Miss began the year at 82nd in kenpom okay they are 13-0 they have not moved they are the exact same rating they were when they started the season and look Chris beard that we know
What happened off the court we know why he lost his job at at Texas he is an excellent oncourt basketball coach we know that he nearly won a national title at Texas Tech and what could have been potentially here at UNLV as we know coach for about 17
Minutes before taking that Red Raider job um they haven’t played anyone Old Miss their best opponent they played as Memphis they did beat them so credit on that but this is a different animal going on the road to Thompson Bowling and taking on a Tennessee team that is
Rated in the top 10 a kenpom since that three-game losing streak against Purdue Kansas and North Carolina who are all legit the top 10 teams in my book they’ve been excellent they handled Illinois with that said though Alex this is aggressive this is aggressive for me where I expect Old Miss have something
To prove hey no one buys into us we’re undefeated why are we not looked at as a reasonable team but the one thing that does concern me for Old Miss is their defense is not up the beard standards they’re 120th in kenpom on defense so
This is a stay off but this does feel aggressive at the 11 and a half 12 that’s out there very aggressive I mean they have two good wins they did beat Memphis and UCF I don’t I’m surprise they didn’t move at all in kenpom that really if anything they went down
Actually at the beginning but 11 and a half points is a lot of points for conference play and you’re right I think they have a lot to prove here I’m I’m a little tempted I’m looking for my number here but yeah that’s a lot of points let’s get Oklahoma and Iowa State next
Really good Big 12 matchup with a pair of top 20 25 kenpom teams and top 25 ranked teams in the actual rankings Sooners are three at home against Iowa State you know this is an interesting interesting game here where you have two top 15 defenses yeah Iowa state has really
Picked their Tempo up this year with with otzelberger there Oklahoma you know you look at the resume the best win is Providence beat Arkansas who’s talented but was a mess at the time there only loss is a game to North Carolina when the game was in Charlotte
So it was a deao home game for the heels I’m staying out of this one to three I think the numberers right Alex but this would be one ingame where if I can get either side at a bloated number I think I would come back with that
Bloated side and see what happens in this one if in an in-game perspective you’re right Iowa state has been playing a lot faster than their normal Pace but and you mentioned it top five defense they’re ranked four right now in Kemp pal so they’ve looked very good here
Kind of surprised that it is three I I thought it would be closer to a one and a half or two so I’d lean a little bit to Ohio State but I’ll wait for the ingame as well let’s go to Utah and Arizona Wildcats destroying Colorado
Earlier in the week in a bounceback spot Utah went on the road to Tempe and lost to Arizona State 13 Alex on this one Iona Lane and 165 the total yeah nothing for me here I think um 13 is a lot of points to be laying and not showing Utah much respect
Here but what about you anything for you this this is the right number I don’t think Utah’s as good as their numbers show I honestly I think that’s a theme for the teams in ut in the state of Utah this year because I really think BYU is
Incredibly overrated uh but Utah look I Arizona State so their opponent in in Arizona state by the way plays Colorado today uh that one what what do we have currently in that game that is uh Colorado 3 yep um I I actually like Arizona State as a home dog in that game
Uh because they defi they’re defying the numbers Arizona State and they were fortunate to win those two games in in the Bay Area they looked like a team that again I think is of tournament Talent there in Arizona State it’s kind of like your classic hurly team where
They’ve underachieved early in the year they gotten themselves in a hole they dig themselves out in Pack 12 te games and end up playing in Dayton like that’s kind of what this team screams to me uh but we’ll see how that plays out but Arizona Utah nothing for me uh at the 13
All right uh Texas Tech and Texas uh tonight in uh in Austin this is a steep line which is steeper than I thought I should say six and a half uh with Texas and Texas Tech uh right now for the Red Raiders uh pops Isaac will more likely
Than not not play today a a civil lawsuit filed against him yesterday for an incident in the Bahamas I am staying out of this game but I will say this is another in-game one I probably want to attack I don’t trust the Longhorns and I think part of
That is I don’t think there’s well coached now with Rodney Terry having that permanent job but if this is one of those where Texas Tech just looks totally out of sorts maybe look to lay a number with with the Longhorns in game yeah with that news and Isaac being out
I didn’t play it but I was looking more towards Texas Tech here taking the points um I just I agree with you I don’t really trust the long horns yet they got to prove it to me so nothing for me pre flop but was I was leaning
More Tech here in this one here’s one that I uh am very intrigued your position on Alex Colorado State on the road in Logan to take on Utah State really good matchup Colorado State this is another one unranked home team favored against the ranked D
Team I like Utah State here that I I actually will go with the trend on this one uh the aies at two and a half you know Colorado State this year where I think they are a legitimate top 20 team kenpom doesn’t like him as much as 27
They’re one lost to St Mary’s but on the road here first conference game tricky place to play tricky spot in a defense that I think is going to be up for the task to slow this Elite offense I like Danny sprinkle and Company at home on a 12-game winning streak to
Cover to two and a half at home I agree I mean keep that winning streak going I like Utah State here I think two and a half is the the right number so I feel I’d feel comfortable laying that at home with them 60th in offense 46th in
Defense very well-rounded team here with the agies this year I how many how many tournament teams do you think there are in M because Colorado State and San Diego State definites right now I would argue that this Utah State team and Nevada should also be in and I know New Mexico
Is top 40 kenpom I need to make sure this isn’t a Redux of last year where they were undefeated in nonon and then missed the NCA tournament all together and it was not off to a good start with that loss in Fort Collins to Colorado State they by the way play Wyoming their
Big favorites at home in Albuquerque today not much of a shock there but I five I think is the max for the Mountain West this year see and I I still want to see more from Nevada here before I just put them right in there again they’ve
Been kind of in a rebuild here but they’ve looked very good this year so them and New Mexico I agree we’ll we’ll see how they do down the stretch oh it’s only appropriate here in the final few games that we have that one of them will
Be be will be BYU but before we get them I want to go Oregon and Wazoo Washington State onepoint favorites at home so this is the one of those tricky back-to-back Road spots now not as tricky for the Oregon teams because it’s not intense travel going from Oregon to
Uh the state of Washington this usually is a tricky trickier road trip for those teams from Arizona or Southern California uh the Ducks won a really entertaining game in Seattle on Thursday night winning as an underdog on the road against the Huskies wazu really had the work against Oregon State they found a
Way they they covered some numbers the other night in the seven-point win I think the wrong team is favored here okay uh I I’m you know for Oregon this have been a few years in a row where Dana Alman has had his team Stuck in Neutral where they were basically making
The second weekend every single year and they made that final four with Dylan Brooks and Company and Peyton Pritchard uh but now as the talent has subsided a little bit for the Dougs it’s been a little lack of consistency but I think this team is better than they’ve shown
So far this year now Santa Clara lost I think Santa clar is a good team not as good as they looked at the beginning of the year Syracuse destroyed them in South Dakota where why that game was in soue Falls I don’t know and they lost Alabama on a neutral nothing wrong with
That but now did you get into conference play for the Ducks I think the talent is going to start winning out here in some of these spots and even though I like Kyle Kyle Boone and I like that that that coach in staff in in uh in pman I
Think Argan should have been a one-point favorite I think it’s the wrong way I like the Ducks outright here Washington State one and two in their last three games so they are getting a lot of respect here being the favorite so I agree with you I think the rung team is
Favorite I think um take the points with Oregon or take them outright well I will say this with wazu that first road trip that Mountain Road Trip difficult where they lost to Utah and Colorado two teams that are more talented than them them so but look well again I just think the
Ducks are more talented and look that’s not to say wazu won’t win the game anyway all right let’s get let’s finish it up I think it’s appropriate BYU in Cincinnati is where we end today 10-point favorites at home n cougars are against the Bearcats I think
This is a pretty good draw to kick off your big 12 membership for BYU you get the other you get the Bearcats who came in with them um BYU is going to be a point of contention all year for me as long as they’re absurdly overvalued in kenpom
Where they’re top 10 in both offense and defense they’re rated number four in kenpom there’s no Universe where they’re the fourth best team in the country I’m sorry they’re just not but for this game against a Cincinnati team that I think is they’re solid I think they’re a solid
Basketball team I think they’re a borderline bubble team if they weren’t in the Big 12 I think they’re going to miss the tournament pretty handily because they’re in a conference where they’re going to be overmatched on Mt nights but I think the numberers fair I would
Actually lean to the under in this game if anything I would lean to under 151 and a half um I know Cincinnati tries to play fast but I think they’re gonna have to slow this down a little bit with the way that the elevation is in Provo as
Well but this all I’m goingon to say because we’re not on the air on Tuesday I will be on Balor on Tuesday night to open that new building in Waco I will be on Balor and I Ken pal has that as a one-point game I expect Baylor
To be closer to three but I don’t care I that will be one of the bigger bets I make early in the season going against BYU on the road in a difficult spot in wakeo on Tuesday but for this one I lean under Cincinnati and by I like it I’m
I’m excited about this one I want to see how these two do against each other this is a pretty good Cincinnati team you’re right they’re ranked 44 offensively 47th defensively big turnaround for them in this program with Miller there but BYU we’ll see I’m kind of hoping that they
Prove you wrong Jeff I’m hoping that they can keep this thing going and they can uh stay in the top five going into the tournament so so uh real quick before we go some other leans I’ll just throw out there uh UNCC Wilmington against talson UNCC Wilmington’s
Onepoint favorite on the road and that one I do like the Seahawks on the road against talson in that one lyola plays duaine in an 10 battle that is a pick uh you might even be able to get one with lyola I like them at home against duaine
And then one last one I’ll bring up here uh we go to uh we’ll go to Montana State and South Dakota State here uh up to 13 I actually thought Montana state was okay at 10 and a half on the overnights so the fact that we’re up to 13 and
Climbing yeah I’m going to wait and see how high this goes and then up going to take a shot on The Bob cats getting the points on the road at the jagra I like it a couple leans for me in hockey today which I had more overs than I liked and
Sean and I have been following the grand salami so far it’s um 5 and0 to the under the last five days but we’re stayed away today because there are a lot of high scoring games I see but Buffalo Pittsburgh do I dare take another penguin’s under I’m going to do
It it’s six and a half I like that under I also like Florida no I don’t I like Colorado today against Florida at home Florida’s com off that big win over Vegas Third Road game for them I like the Islanders and vgk over six I think
That game should be at six and a half so you’re getting some value there the Islanders used to play slow and methodical they picked it up this year they’re a feisty team so we’ll see some goals on the board in that one it’s uh just down the road at T-Mobile it
Usually I go to the when the island do you but not not not this year they’re they’re fun to watch they’re different they’re very different than what you’re accustomed to with that team usually it’s grind it out grinded out not not the case so far here in this
2023 2024 season all right we’re back tomorrow 24 hours from now previewing the final week of the NFL season again Steelers three-point favorites tonight Houston up to one and a half against Indianapolis even some two in the market on that game now for Alex white I’m Jeff parles we’ll see you again tomorrow
Sports by the book here at the South Point Studio
