In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Steve Schirmer is once again joined by Golf Gambling Podcast producer and SGPN Content Contributor Cameron Kerr (@kerrcameron) give out their best bets and predictions for the 2024 Sentry.
After Steve challenges Cameron about what adjustments he’s looking to make to his golf betting cards this season, they run down the odds board for the 2024 Sentry and give out their best bets and predictions. They offer their favorite outright bets, positional props, first round leader bets, matchups, and so much more.
Make sure to rate, review and subscribe to the Golf Gambling Podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Also make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel for free weekly content!
This episode of the golf gaming podcast and the sports gaming podcast network is brought to you by Hall of Fame bets the sports betting research platform for parlays player props and gamelines download the Hall of Fame bets app or visit Hof bets.com use code SGP in to
Get 50% off your first month and start making smarter bets today we’re also brought to you by the hockey gambling podcast brand new YouTube page the hockey guys are giving away a hoodie to celebrate their new YouTube channel register today at sports gaming podcast.com GP all right DJ welcome back uh if I’m
Doing the ad reads it means BOS and CER is still on Hiatus uh he says he doesn’t have Corona uh but his throat is apparently on fire and he slept all day it definitely sounds like he’s got a Corona virus but in his place is uh our producer uh and sjpn content creator
Cameron Kerr Cameron second second show with you are you getting really comfy in that seat being in the co-host chair I’m I’m getting more comfortable that’s for sure I’m just trying to uh to provide as much value as I can in in kapper’s absence so hopefully I don’t let you
Down here but uh I feel like I got uh I got some good questions and and uh a good little list here for uh for the century okay yeah I I always enjoyed when you’re on the show because you know listen you know kapper’s got his own
Takes and he kind of digs his heels and stuff you I feel like I can kind of manipulate and you know get you on my side with these arguments and you know you always come with good questions too and I always love answering questions from not just you from everybody in
Discord you know we had somebody asked about Eric Cole uh in Discord earlier and I answered that question we will certainly talk about him uh shortly but what I want to ask you too is you know listen this is the first time we’ve had you on a a golf podcast well technically
Showed up for the uh the mailbag but um you know so I I I I would say probably the last year or two probably you’ve been much more serious betting on golf is there anything you want to do differently this year maybe a some sort of new resolution as far as what you
Want yeah as far as what you want to either bet on more or maybe scale back on uh what’s something you maybe want to do differently with golf gambling that is a great question so uh golf gambling is is really uh is really unique and
There’s a lot of ways to get a sweat obviously which is why we love it um I I want to start doing more matchups I kind of started doing more matchups towards the end of the season and and I had like I had some success doing it and I I just
Got in this position with placements where I wasn’t really having fun sweating like a guy who’s 21st to make a putt on 18 to jump up into into the top 20 and and stuff like that um I I I don’t know I just hit a this lull where
Last season where I just wasn’t having wasn’t enjoying it as much so so I tried to you know switch up switch it up go up go to some matchups um and found some edges there and had some success so that’s one of my New Year’s resolutions uh the other one
I started doing this probably halfway through the year um bet all my outrights top five if you if you have bet 365 I think you can get like top twos top top threes maybe not risk as much but um there were a couple out rights that I
Hit last year where I also had a guy another guy in the top five turned a really good really good week into a really great week uh and then sometimes you get that um that that second third place guy that maybe you got two of them
In a playoff and neither of them win but you still get you know your money back is that a h reference to the rocket mortgage you really want to bring back that trauma for me I know yeah yeah you know that’s that’s that’s I think that’s probably
The worst beat I’ve ever had is how that went down and then I went away and people thought I quit I I I think you br some good points the thing with the positionals that’s usually been my bread and butter and you kind of hit on it and
It’s one of the reasons why golf is this is I guess a hot take a kind of a tough sport to enjoy gambling on is if you don’t have an outright in the mix chances are you’re never going to see the player you bet on hit a shot because
The TV cover is so bad and they’re buried and you’re basically just refreshing your phone like a crack addict over and over and over and he got you know the wife glaring at you saying hey can you pay attention to the kids not your phone so I haven’t been in that
Situation ever at all uh but one thing I want to do and I kind of mentioned this um in our mailback show I think it was a mailback show I think I need to have a little more imagination with my bets I think I need to expand my mind with the
Possibilities that you know maybe that long shot will hit maybe I should go with my gut a little more maybe I shouldn’t just rely just purely on the stats and kind of go with my feel a little bit and also I’ve been seeing you guys have a lot of fun on Thursdays and
I typically have avoided first- round leader bets and positional bets and you know what we’re gonna start doing that this year starting as a century it’s so funny whenever you actually put out uh first round leaders you pretty much I think every single time you hit one yeah like I remember the Masters
You put you put on some out and you hit Brooks or uh no it was Vic maybe um but yeah I I’m excited for so that’s on that note I want to start doing some uh some more make the cut parlays um I do have a book that that offers like you know
People to make the cut so you get your Thursday sweat with the first round leaders then you need a Friday sweat Saturday you uh get all your stuff done hang out with your kids and then Sunday you got your your outright outright sweats so that’s
Something I want to do more too you know the the main cut parlays is definitely a very easy way to make enemies in the PGA Tour is that bum who bogey 18 or doubles or hits in the water and cost your five-way parlay you know that’s a way to
Really say you know you Justin Rose I’m never betting you again and he wins the next week and then you know you wonder what happened there but no I I I like those uh resolutions I’ll ask probably kapper if he ever gets healthy and gets voice I’ll ask him if he wants
To do anything different I’m sure there’s probably something crazy he wants to do with his betting card but yeah and I I feel like that’s one thing people like about our show um is that you know you have have your you know your expertise you get your you look at
All the numbers all the stats um and then you kind of get a more gut handicappers outlook on the tournament by cap so like I think um I think this show provides a good balance of both you know yeah definitely I mean it’s a reason why I think uh that in our chemistry
Apparently I think I’m the M I’m the Mike Greenberg versus he’s the Mike gock I think that’s why we kind of work over the years do you know the origin of that by the way how how we started this show uh I don’t think you guys have ever
Told me because I joined in I joined in about episode I mean that y’all were a good 100 150 episodes in before I joined in right mhm Yeah so basically I got this random message on when I was still on Twitter actually no I think I might no I
Was still on Twitter at that point it was 2019 and he messaged me and I was actually on my baby moon at that point before I first kid okay and I got a message from Boston kapper I was like what the hell is this and he’s like Hey
Listen I talked to Kramer why don’t we do a show and honestly at first I was like I don’t know man am I Really Gonna Do the show that gets hammered with the guy gets hammered with a you know thick Boston accent do a golf show with him so
I said look like I’m about to have a kid like this is not really a good time for me to be starting a show at all um why we talk next year maybe I’ll get my little my footing together then the pandemic hit and everything just went to
but then finally around August the following year in 2020 I get the same message for him he’s like hey why don’t we start a show I’m like you know what I’m just stuck at home drinking wine and beer and no one’s going out and you know
What why we start a podcast and that was actually the the first show that we ever did was the first time we ever spoke period like face to face yeah and to the point where Ryan Kramer actually asked us see you guys have never talked before at all he was actually surprised with
How good her chemistry was and 335 episodes later uh give or take we are still running strong so that is the origin story of the uh golf gaming podcast I didn’t think I would actually go into that with this show you know listen yeah new year I guess talk about
Beginnings and uh we’re at the beginning of another PJ T season but before we get to all of that why don’t we take our first ad break and why don’t we talk about Underdog fantasy so Underdog fantasy has a way to play alongside your favorite fantasy players all season long
NFL NBA NHL college basketball and college football even golf by the way which coming up after this show uh I’m gonna be doing some Underdog picks on YouTube so stay tuned for that it’ll get released probably either tomorrow morning or later on tonight so simply pick higher lower on all your favorite
Players fantasy stats and cash in and just a spoiler alert for the types of bets I’m going be liking on Underdog this week for the century tournament champions lots of birdies uh the weather reports going to be looking pretty good not a whole lot of wind uh all that wind
That was I talked about on Monday seems like it’s kind of subsiding so uh pound the uh the higher uh amounts of birdies uh on those props there so watch along make your picks and make maybe make a little cash over an under fantasy mobile app or website under fantasy.com and
When you sign up with the promo code SGP PN Underdog will double your first deposit up to $100 it’s Underdog fantasy promo code s gpn and we’re also brought to you by the hockey golf G or the hockey caming podcast hoodie uh giveaway uh they just launched their new YouTube
Channel and they’re giving away an hgp hoodie to celebrate so go over to sports gaming podcast.com hgp to enter that Sports gaming podcast.com hgp all right let’s finally get to the centry tournament champions uh why don’t we start right at the top of the odds
Board and okay why I kick it off with Scotty sheffler and this was a guy that you religiously bet a lot last year so last year I did I single bulleted him for probably at least seven weeks straight and my reasoning was that eventually that putter was going to that putter was
Going to wake up and he was going to win because his I mean everything else was just off the charts and that just tells you how important putting is because it never happened and I cash I want to say like I I bet him top five to
Every single tournament and was able to you know not lose a ton you know um but yeah it it was uh it was an experience for sure definitely learned a lot from it yeah I mean I’m the county he had uh seven in a row from the Byron Nelson to
The Scottish open uh and then he collapsed in the B&W Championship when I decide to join you uh with single bulleting Scotty uh that was another rough loss for your boy last year out of many wins by the way lot of L rough losses you always remember the rough
Losses in golf um so the case for Scotty I kind of talked about it La yester I me listen it’s very easy to make his case for Scotty’s best ball striker in the world this is a golf course that is going to really work at iron shots and
It’s really going to come down to the putter um listen if he shows up the putter that he had in Albany with the same TI Eagle greens he’s going to win this thing by five um but it’s five and a half to one it’s a really good field
Uh this is not the time for me to I think a single bullet Scotty I think looking as our positional prices I mean you’re getting barely plus money on a top five you’re paying a lot of juice for a 10 and 20 it’s probably for me I
Think I I was I was intrigued to maybe look at what is matchup price would be against havland because definitely prefer Scotty uh at this golf course to havlin but you were paying a lot of juice on that too it was like minus one it was between like minus 155 and like
Minus 175 so yeah um I’m off havin that’s probably my opin how do you feel about havin this week so I was goingon to ask you about him because obviously he’s probably the hottest golfer in the world towards obviously towards the end of the season um and so I guess I can go
Ahead and ask you my first question sure um and a lot of people who are listening probably have the same question but um one thing that I look at every week is obviously recent form and people talk about that a lot in this golf gambling Community like how is he how how well
Does he look coming in I mean we hit we hit Camilo uh viegas and I mean he kind of just jumped out of nowhere last at the end of last season and got second and then got first right so being hot and is definitely something look at right but this tournament we don’t
Really know anything about anyone’s recent form a lot of them probably went on vacations didn’t you know maybe practice golfed you know here and there but um how much how much should we take their last golf tournament into account like I started looking at some guys that
I’m going to name off later um and you look at their last tournament and it was in October like I feel like we can’t really judge their recent form off of that right no you can’t I mean you can talk about in generalities like saying hey look like this guy was starting to
Improve in the fall like I use that case a couple bit you know a little bit for some guys just kind of make a point of maybe they’re just kind of a better player at this point but overall though what I kind of looked at more was especially with the approach um shot
Stats this week I looked at a very big sample size I looked to the last two years uh for strokes game per shot uh for certain ranges that basically gives me an indication of what you just are in general and I kind of did a cross
Reference to what you did last year too if you improve in that category I’ll make reference to one guy that over the last who has shown a lot of great Improvement in a certain area that I like this week but lot of long-term form lot of just relying on what I know about
The player uh maybe looking a little bit of course history here you know it’s it’s for a lot of these guys is only maybe like one tournament or two but for hin for me I think the tiebreaker is Scotty is just way better with his shorter irons than uh havin is havin is
About as good as he is from over you know 150 yards over 175 yards one of the best in the world from over 200 but Scotty just threw the bag um you know with his wedges long irons everything it just his driver was so good in uh in his
Last tournament what where was it it was in Albany yeah I’m pretty sure he his his driver was just on fire there too yeah which is basically ALB is kind of a flatter version of uh capalo where it’s really wide Fairways if you do happen to
Miss a fairway it’s probably a loss ball and a penalty show because we kind of saw there in Albany but um listen like you know you got the gational comps we hitting off uneven lies you know obviously Scotty I think if you’re gonna choose between Scotty and havin uh I
Think Scotty for me is the answer with unfortunately the books agree you got to pay a lot of juice for it but where where I turned my attention most uh towards the top of the board is that little middle tier there of morawa Xander can’t lay and hom and I had a
Decision to make I can only pick one guy out of those four those are the ones I like the most um I think for betting you know outright towards the top there okay so do you have a personal preference of those four uh between hom morawa shaffle
And Canley I know Mor you said is gonna be very popular pick this week yes yeah um so I want I I’ll go ahead and and rattle off my first uh I haven’t bet any of these guys by the way I wanted I wanted to talk with you first knew I was coming
On so I wanted to talk first um max hom so max hom to go back to my uh recent form comment he just won on the DP World Tour kind of took away the narrative that he can only went on the west coast well is Hawaii technically the West
Coast I mean he got got third here last year he putted well really really well here why is no one betting him is it the number is it is it too short I think people probably are scared of his Bermuda history in general okay um you
Know it’s it’s it’s one of it’s him and Klay that definitely don’t have good Berita history uh in general even though you know people will point to well we want to qu Hollow yeah but those greens are overseed it’s not this type of Bermuda okay um I I almost bet
Hom here because I I am I’m I was very impressed in the last like four or five months going back to like def Cup playoffs too that he was really starting to drive the ball really good uh his iron play was starting to really show up
You know yeah sure you can say well he beat a crap field over in the DP World Tour well he did exactly what a good player should do against a weak field he beat him by multiple shots and I I think he’s set up for a really good year uh in
2024 I’m already on record for saying I really like him at the PJ Championship uh to maybe get that first major but I think the Bermuda history in general is enough to get me off of Max hom uh here so I cut him off first okay okay um um
That’s that’s the only name I have written down up here uh Xander withdrew last year I don’t remember why OB neck injury that’s right and then obviously we have ludvig but who is new but uh I don’t I don’t know I wanted to get your take on
Him too on on on ludig yeah well he kind of put me in a body bag at RSM because his on paper his wedges are horrific but RSM is basically just a lot of short irons and he end up winning that so maybe he just is better in that category
Now um I just don’t really have I just didn’t bet him I you know the numberers these are a lot of really good players around and he’s an excellent player in his own right too but um I think I would if he was in the 20s maybe towards like
Where like Tom Kim was I’d be tempted to bet him but around like Xander and morawa and Klay I feel like I feel like he’s gotten too much steam uh you know a lot of people are going to be like he’s the next Tiger kind of like we did with
Uh Montgomery at the beginning of last season so so yeah I think I think I’m GNA stay off from there okay all right so the guy I bet though and I went back and forth and I see Boston kapper in the uh the chat hello Boston kapper how are you
Uh get ready to well I’m glad you don’t have a a voice because you’re not gonna be able to scream at your phone here um I bet Patrick hlay like I mentioned last night I bet him at 16 to1 I thought that was a good price onto him and the only
Reason why I really bet can’t lay actually it’s a couple reasons first I may mention that interview uh that he had with I think Golf Digest where he talked about inflecting on his season and he said listen like I I’ve been I was really close all year but it was
Disappointing to not get a win and he was very close a lot of times last year he’s been within five of The League going to the final round 13 times the last Ser he only has one win uh in that stretch and he was one of the best
Players from under 175 in the world last year that’s obviously a lot of shots you got hit from this range now the concern obviously with KY is wait wait a minut see you just say he’s not really good on Berita but for whatever reason a Capal Louis he’s always putt really good here
And he’s always been really good around the green here I don’t know why that hasn’t translated to other places it also could be now that he’s a Florida resident maybe he just practices more on Bermuda now maybe it’s just getting better at this point but I think kley is
Due for a win this is a tournament where you got to make a lot of birdies he has one of the highest birdie rates in the field he’s done well at places like TBC Summerland where you hit a lot of birdies obviously W K’s Valley at like
27 under so I know he can win a birdie Fest and just thinking about the types of courses you’ve been really good at recently it’s been a lot of courses with a lot of short irons like Travelers and harbort town and south wind and maybe
Those are a little bit more his types of tracks so I am betting can’t L 161 at towards the top of my card okay uh I I’m probably not gonna tell you on that one I can’t do it um I have a rule that I don’t bet guys that
That choke down the stretch I need I need Stone Cold mental killers on my cards okay you know but this is this is a soft this is a softy tournament though that’s true that’s true it is this is definitely one where can’t like you know
Can feel conf not allowed to win a lot of birdies he’s got two top fives here you got some pineapple ice cream when you get done with your round that actually it was I think it was my ties that one year when he said all right you know
Last hole let’s go get some my ties after this so uh so I I love Xander and morow this week too I found other ways to get the my Ben card Mora will save once we get through everything we’ll talk about like first round leader on props here but
Xander’s been awesome at this tournament and he’s got the win here he lost in a playoff multiple other top 10 finishes I think the fact that you know with Drew last year maybe that’s sticking with him that’s another guy who I consider to Ben outright because he has a one in a while
Either I found a top 10 on Xander shle plus 140 I think that’s a good price considering how good is here um I am betting that too all right okay um let’s see anybody else in this range how about spe or Tom Kim or Fitzpatrick or fow you
Said you like fow so why don’t you talk about that yeah so I wanted to ask you about Tony um so the other guys that I’ve been seeing a ton of on Twitter uh just to let you know um Jordan spe in that just this whole range basically
Jordan spe Matt Fitzpatrick and Tom Kim a lot of people have one of those guys if not two on their card um Tony feno is one of those guys where obviously he can only win in a bunny field so I wanted to ask you because this is maybe a short field is
It technically like a field where we could see Tony win because I mean his short game’s really good his um his approach shots are going to be really good and let’s see yeah I mean I think he’s got the driving distance uh so like yeah Tony F
Yeah I just I don’t think he’s gonna like if I think the wi he scores 27 under 30 under I don’t think Tony can get there that’s really just it’s just his birdie rate okay yeah pretty pretty much you know he always misses those putts on Saturday and Sunday too I I I
Don’t see Tony winning that type of tournament I did did bet another guy you know under 30 to1 here uh I said it yesterday Tom Kim I got him 28 to1 you can get him at 30 to1 now and just think about it good with the short irons makes
A lot of birdies wanted place like s Summerland and Windom so you got the good Bermuda history good attracts where you go make a lot of birdies there I think he finished top 15 the Masters so I know he can get done on even lies and
I just had a picture in my head of just I was going to bet Tom Kim uh almost despite whatever number I saw I was disappointed that it was only 30 I was hoping to get maybe like 35 or so but whatever um I was just kind of Po
Committ to betting Tom Kim this week I don’t care if he’s popular um this is the type of track that I want to you know get him on because I know he can get hot he’s good Potter makes a lot of birdies good Potter on this type of
Surface too uh so yeah so my first outrights are Klay and Tom Kim uh 16 and 28 I have two more down the card uh that we’ll talk about but do you have anybody any other thoughts in this range before we move on um not not right now as far
As uh outrights go a lot of people are on Brian Haron too um at 50 uh cam young is never winning so don’t don’t waste your money um okay some people are betting Keegan too why we why don’t we say that why don’t we say that when we talk about the
Mid tier okay I’m jump I’m jumping that’s okay that’s okay why don’t we take another break first and let’s talk about the uh the game time.co the game time app and yeah I talked about yesterday my brother-in-law is still trying to get rid of one of his tickets
For one of his friends because yeah listen they end up moving the Bills Dolphins game to Sunday night and his friend has a flight that evening but you know what he can do I’ve been trying to tell him all all week go to game time.co put that ticket up there because there’s
Gonna be somebody who’s gonna want to go to that game at the last minute uh looking to get a quick ticket and he’s going to be able to get rid of it fact and game time.co that is a great place to buy all your tickets and especially
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App or visit Hof bets.com use sjpn to get 50% off your first month today start researching start winning with Hall of Fame bets all right let’s finally get to the mids here so you want so cam Young’s never winning in your opinion correct I don’t think no
He’s gonna win but I don’t think I I I think it’s going to be some event that no one thinks that he should win at like I mean maybe maybe it’s going to be like a major when he first wins but I I’m on record saying that he’s never gonna win
And and I don’t think he has what it takes like I said going back to the the mental side of golf um yeah I don’t think he’s gonna win this okay can I make a case for cam young oh yeah there’s there’s plenty of cases like it’s just one of those all
Right so first off I mean you get him near 50 55 to one like the same as like Cory Connors I think cor cam is a better player than Cory Connor um cam is really good from under 150 surprisingly he’s really good with his wedges and that’s a
Club he got to hit really well those golf course and he’s got really high birdie rates so even despite really bad putting and really bad around the green game he makes a ton of birdies now he also shoots himself in the foot I was about to say that so that’s the
Trade-off here can’t really do that with sloppy play but you know I mean cam young went to a birdie Fest at the WGC match play made a bunch of birdies and the finals just got hot for five days there you know you never know do I think
He’s gonna get to 30 under and win this probably not but it’s a good price um there are things you can hang your head on with Cam young maybe probably a good DFS play I feel like uh instead but um the cas’s can be made for him that’s all
I can say uh let’s see let’s see I I think you can also make a case for Sam Burns I didn’t bet him but kind of along the similar lines is listen not a good iron player on paper but he’s pretty good from you know with his short irons
And when he gets hot with a pottery he makes a lot of birdies so that’s something maybe hang your head on you know at 40 to1 for a guy that has you know a lot of wins he’s got five wins he’s won a couple of golf courses where it’s been mostly short irons
Too you know you could do that as well um I have finding a guy who end up dipping to 40 to one and this is gonna be another guy that Boston kapper uh cannot scream into the phone about because uh I think I think I’m gonna be
Electrocuted uh every time I bet him but sunjay fell to 40 to one and I wasn’t gonna add a fourth guy because I was content with the three with cellay Tom Kim and then the other guy I’ll talk about a little bit but I think it’s 41 for sunj M I end up
Betting him again he has like Klay 13 times the last two years he’s been within five of the lead heading the final round he has only one win actually I think he has zero wins in that stretch so he was one of the best players from
Under 150 last year now that’s a big Improvement for what it was back the previous year so if you’re looking at really longterm data doesn’t look as good but if you only look last year he was one of the best from under 150 uh really good putter in Bermuda makes a
Lot of birdies he’s got a good track record here got a good track record at Augusta National with the uneven lies too so if 40 to1 for a guy who seems like he’s always in the mix always gets off to a fast start by the way I’ll talk
About that in a little bit um I end up doubling up with sunjay not only for the outright 40 to one um I am betting it like a match up sunj top 20 minus 110 I am just betting that and been you know you know two units on it and we’ll
See what happens I I like that a lot I feel like that’s a great um contrarian play If you’re looking for something in DFS 2 like I haven’t seen anyone talking about sunj I feel like he’s kind of under the radar um but and he’s sunj I
Mean he’s good around the greens good putting um he’s got okay distance right that probably is the only the reason people aren’t betting him right yeah maybe I mean I talked about it last night where yeah the data golf predictive skill set favors distance but I think that’s more of a measurement of
Like what types of players usually play this tournament it’s usually really good players in the PG tour it’s the best of the best and most the best players tending to have guys with distance so I think that’s why in the predi skill set say oh you got to be long good iron
Player good around the green good putter I think it’s more this and and compared to you know who’s been best at this tournament it’s been more CWA and like Tom hogi played well here last year JJ spawn played well here last year um spe when he was doing really well this
Tournament didn’t have as much distance as most guys to so you know you don’t have to necessarily have a lot of Pop to do well here I think this golf course more promotes what you’re good at and if you be very efficient to get the ball in
The hole um and make a lot of birdies doing it and that’s why I think getting a guy like 40 And1 where I know he can go really low he’s won Summerland before um that’s I I end up just saying okay at that point it’s too good for a
Price may pass up um okay before before we go before we go any further into the mid-range um do do if gun to your head do you think that the guys who are betting one to two guys in that in that upper you know or that lower range um
Are gonna win or do you think the the strategy in this tournament is to spray kind of spray the board and go hope someone in the you know 100s 90s 7s 60s wins I mean based on recent Trends it’s been top of the board that hits at this
Tournament okay I think the worst odds to hit the last seven or eight Century tourament Champions have been 30 to one now granted that was only with like 35 guys is now 50 guys so Harris English might have been like I think that was he
Was like 30 to one when he won he might have been like 50 to one if we had this type of field so yeah there’s a lot of really good players who can put up a lot of birdies from you know 30 to one to like I would say probably your limit is
Probably I mean other I I I’m a hypocrite because I went past this for my last guy but I would probably say once you get past like Burns and cam young and Brian Harmon it’s probably a little ambitious to think this guy’s gonna beat all of Scotty havlin Mor Xander Klay
Ludvig yeah I have a I have a lot of guys I feel like I have a lot of guys that look good on paper that just have no shot at winning um but maybe you know maybe I want to ask you about him because maybe it’s a good opportunity
For a matchup or something okay all right there you go yeah so from here on I I have one more outright and I have a couple positionals but uh why don’t you start why don’t you ask me a couple guys in this range okay so I’m definitely
Betting Eric Cole um I think he he’s one of those guys that has the mental fortitude to get there to to bring to to list the trophy but just has gotten really close hasn’t I don’t know if it’s going to be here but I mean 60 to one
Um why not I mean okay I I bet him at freaking 15 to one I feel like at the end of last season so um I can’t stop now uh and then sah theala we we all like him uh our friend Byron likes him this week um his big weakness is what obvious
Viously the um driving accuracy he’s he’s just a wild off the tea right as we know that doesn’t really matter here he’s good he’s a great putter great around the greens has decent uh driving accuracy uh maybe I I I need your advice on his iron play but um I love sahala
And I think he I mean I think he can do it in this field even so I mean he’s got the talent for I think the only other weakness which is enough for me to get off he’s really bad from under 150 really IR I mean like not terrible he’s
Like pg2 or average but with the best of the best you can’t you can’t be average average is back half of the field at this point so yes he makes a lot of birdies I do like that I think if you’re gonna bet see to Gala um I think maybe a
First round leader might be a good bet yeah or maybe like top five after round one because I feel like with seah it’s you’re gonna know immediately if he’s got it so I I think I like that route with him uh he’s actually been um you
Know over the last two years or so you know he’s got off a lot of really fast starts uh in his career but the the short iron game was enough to get me off as far as Eric Cole listen like the case is very easy for Eric Cole I I I
Mentioned this in Discord one am I looking for this week guys are really good with their short irons Eric Cole is really good with their short irons guys make a lot of birdies Eric Cole made a lot of birdies last year uh good putter on berm Eric Cole is really good putter
On berm do I think he’s actually going to win no do I think uh a top 20 on him plus 150 is pretty good I like that uh there’s a couple other props I have on him later on for a fast start because he’s been one of the fastest starting
Guys in the PG tour in his is that right career yes I’m gonna quiz you actually in a little bit on that but yeah so I like Eric Cole um you know I think a lot of people are gonna like Eric Cole this is not really surprised I think he’s
Gonna be pretty Chalk in DFS but the case is very easy to make for him based on what you’re looking for so I’m just I’m not just I’m just gonna write it I think the plus 150 for a top 20 given his talents and how I think he can do
With this golf course I think it’s that’s reasonable so that’s that’s where he’s on my card all right um and then uh our current US Open Champion wam Clark wam Clark so Windam Clark might have come back to earth a little bit didn’t have the best fall
Although he did pretty did he did was he at the Hero World Challenge he was and he got 19 how he do okay so he got dead last then yeah no he did he he shot plus two will zator shot plus all right so he was
He was next to last it was mostly around the green all right so we hit the ball there look I mean since it’s Championship you know 56 at the end of LM Masters t37 the duml Phoenix tournament I don’t have stats for that for him but that was a very weak field
So I can’t imagine you did all the great and then next to last the hero he lost all of his Strokes around the green he he did he’s had some Clunkers with the irons uh recently so look like I mean like a lot of stuff you’re you know for
Winham Clark at least you know longterm looks okay if you’re going past you know you know basically around the US Open time since then he’s cooled off I get the case for him high birdie rates good putter on Bermuda not really for me I think he
Might have turned back into a pumpkin in my opinion okay um so he looks like he got third at the Tour Championship that’s probably uh you know points adjusted right uh no that’s that’s no that’s actually I think uh legit I think data golf how they put it is just how
You finish as far as Strokes gain not the staggered leaderboard okay so well so it looks like he got third and played really really well uh at East Lake and then he went to Europe and played he played in Europe and then he played in
Japan yes and then he came back from for the hero and yeah and and he wasn’t and he wasn’t that great at the rer cup either that’s true so that’s also missing in there yeah I I just I’ve never been the a big Windom
Guy I know a lot of people were I was late to the party on him and then the party was over when I was there so I’m data he’s number two on data golf’s um adjusted Strokes gained in relative uh in relative course fit I guess yeah and
And that’s all because of the driving which I that’s all because of driving yeah yeah and I talked about that yesterday I don’t think the predictive skill set is very useful this week just because it all that is measuring is the types of guys that typically do well at
This tournament and this tournament always has the best players and the best players tend to be pretty long off the tea and you know good with a bunch of other stuff obviously with the accuracy I can get that because it’s yeah Fairways but um I think it’s a little
Misleading okay say that he’s just gonna come in here and dominate I I don’t think that’s as predictive as what it’s suggesting okay okay um so that probably yeah I you’re probably not going to like a lot of these guys that have low I’m just throwing out flyers
Here at this point well I got I got one guy we haven’t talked about maybe it’s on your I mentioned it last night in the preview show uh I really like JT posing this week okay so iron play was really good in the fall and actually really good
Like in the last like six months like starting with like Midsummer there uh in the last two years he’s been within five of the lead 10 times that’s uh going to the final round that’s one of the highest Clips in this field I think he
Only has one win to show for it really good putter on berm good putter in general decent bur man he’s put yeah he’s he’s putting his ass off towards the right and he’s a good short iron player too so I I it was 100 to one on
Him listen to I think he’s actually gonna win no but 100 to one and he fit everything I’m looking for and like I was looking at like okay why is Eric Cole 50 to one and JT post is 100 to one they’ve been doing similar stuff they’re
Kind of similar profiles so I am going with 100 to one with him but I like both but I just I that was another guy I just kind of had a gut call on and look like I mean like if Harris English can win a kaala I think JT Poston based on what
He’s been doing can win a kaala and you know cam Smith also you know JT is not good off the T C Smith was pretty weak in that category too but he got high with his iron and Putt his ass off maybe JT post can just have a magical four
Days and he’s a good uh I feel like I see him on the first round leaderboard um too a lot uh you do and maybe actually what is there anybody else like over 100 to one you want to ask about I got a couple guys down here maybe you’ll you’ll yeah
I did I I did some dumpster diving maybe I need to play DFS this week and just like throw in a lineup with like one of each of these guys and just hope you know hope they do well um main guy I want to ask and I put a star around it
Is uh McKenzie Hughes okay so McKenzie Hughes um good putter good great putter yeah pretty good uh he just got second at the RSM puted really well um and I think this was one of the yeah this he’s kind of up there in um in the relative skill chart I think it was
Maybe his course history here too uh let’s see so his course history course history is not great here no it’s not 21st last year which is pretty low which is out of like 40 guys yeah yeah and then he got like dead last in 2021 yeah so the problem with McKenzie
Hughes is it’s all about creating opportunities for yourself for birdies and he just doesn’t do that because he’s is a really bad ball Striker he’s really bad from under 150 so where I like mzi Hughes if it’s like if this was gonna get a lot of wind and maybe be like more
That 2020 tournament was kind of more of an up and down game I could buy into McKenzie Hughes at that point most of the tournaments I think where McKenzie Hugh has been really good is where guys just can’t hit Fairways and guys can’t hit greens and you know then he ends up
Kind of wins a war of attrition because he makes a bunch of putts but not not here not not with Dead Calm conditions pretty much most of the tournament um I’m not in on Mackenzie Hughes this week despite the fact that he’s a good Putter
And could drain a lot of putts but I I don’t think he’s GNA put himself in position to get enough birdie looks you know compared guys what about what about him versus Andrew Putman or putam sorry um he just I mean he blows him away off
The tea and maybe he’ll have some some some better look um than him just based on that I would probably side with putam there just because he’s much better with his shorter irons and he’s good putter on Bermuda but I’ve had a lot of bad luck betting Andrew putam
This fall um I tried a couple times it didn’t really work out too great for me but he’s got better course history at least than uh McKenzie Hughes better short iron player that’s probably enough for me to say okay you’re gonna give yourself more birdie looks at least so I was
In that one uh a lot of people are betting Tom hogi uh this week too um probably probably down the board and then um the other guy that I have written down is uh Nick Hardy so I think that was just when I thought that driving distance really mattered here um
But but yeah from based on what you uh have been saying I probably shouldn’t bet him even though I mean it’s 250 to one like why not but um yeah the Tom hogi one I guess the rationale is he came top five here last year he’s really
Good with his short irons and he makes fair amount of birdies he also might have turned back into a pumpkin guys like I’m looking he hasn’t had a top 10 since uh the players when he had like a 60 in like the final round or something and I’ve been to Maui
There’s no casinos out in Maui no no there’s a bunch of Mormons I think that settled uh you know around that area so Nick hard’s not that good from uh under 150 no nick nick Hardy’s just not very good period unfortunately yeah that’s why he’s 250 to one Steve yeah um how
About kapper’s boy Camila vas so I thought about that but I I feel like he he’s got that win and now and now we’re not going to see him everything that I know about about gambling and like um in general says no he end being all right at uh RSM I think
The following week he got to a good start at least I noted that he’s he’s pretty good with his wedges he got 58 um nine under well I know I know that he was in the the top 10 after the first round at least yeah he I mean I guess that I I
Didn’t write him down just because he’s not very good off the T but I mean he is really really good from 50 to 100 and 100 to 150 yeah he’s a good short iron player uh he won it’s uh the the Port Royal the bran Championship has Tiff
Eagle greens and this is Tiff Eagle greens so maybe he continue putting well there I don’t know yeah I mean it’s 175 yeah well I wouldn’t recommend maybe betting outright but I mean top 20 top 30 even you can find that market out there you know maybe that’s maybe in a
Matchup uh close your eyes against him and I don’t know Davis Riley or something yeah maybe that can work out for you yeah let’s see what let’s see what we got okay while you all right while you look at that actually I gotta I I’ll ask you a
Question so this is what I’m gonna start tracking this well actually I’m going to start tracking this year and I I went back to the last two years and looked so I I mentioned top of the show I want to start more first round leaders and
Positionals after round one I I I gota start having a little more fun with this stuff but I want to start I I wanted I was curious about guys who get off to really fast starts um on the pj2 or in round one specifically though not just first round
Leader but are are you within like two of the lead like did you get into like a sweat so here are the guys um that have been within two of the lead uh over the last two years and actually let me ask you directly who do you think
Leads the PJ tour in either being first round leader or within two of the lead after round one over the last two years um after round one uh Rory no he’s up on the list he’s uh he hit seven times for him that is good for uh tied for it’s t7
Basically with like five other guys um give you I’ll give you a h I’ll give you a hint he’s in this field and it’s a guy who kind of sucks uh JJ spawn is he in the field no not JJ spawn uh okay let me let me look
Um I I’ll I’ll give you the answer okay it’s it’s Denny McCarthy 10 10 times over the last two years he’s gotten off to been within two of the lead of the first round lead well is that is that because he’s just like super hot when he’s hot with his putter
Like he can literally make it from any distance it’s basically a gimme basically yeah like if he’s just anytime he’s just have like has a halfway decent iron performance he’s just gonna make the putt at that point okay so that’s a guy that maybe Target for first round
Leader like positions like that type of stuff uh second on the list I me he’s actually on my outright card uh and he gets off the really fast start Sun JM nine times he’s been within two of the leader first round leader uh at eight uh the uh dealer departed John ROM winam
Clark Eric Cole who did that all in one year by the way yep at eight how many times eight eight times just in one year and cam Young by the way yeah after to really starts and then at seven you got Aaron Ry Tom hogi Sam Ryder Callum
Morawa that’s a guy who you kind of know if he’s got it or not right out of the jump uh sah tala really explosive and Rory Ma at that point so I ended up taking this list and just you know throwing on my spreadsheet here and I end up
Betting um some first round leaders um and conveniently enough the guys I end up betting for outr positionals happen to be guys who do pretty well in this metric uh and I also tried to maybe get some earlier tea times on Thursday although at this point I looked at the
Weather forecast does not look like it’s going to be very windy on Thursday so um and they’re all going off at like 800 am Hawaiian Time so they’ll be done by like 3:00 4:00 Hawaiian Time and I think that’s when the winds start going to start kicking up so most of these guys
Are gonna play in really is of score Edition so I don’t really care about what’s this point so first round leader card for me and I also bet are you g me in the top 10 after round one I kind of like this Market a little bit I’m gonna
Explore a little bit so KY Mo CA 20 to one I just mentioned you kind of know if he has it if or doesn’t you know one of the leaders of within two of the lead after round one in the last two years 20 to one on him for
First round leader also I’ll get him for a top 10 after round one plus 225 uh Tom Kim 30 to one uh backing up the outright bet with a first round leader because I think you saw last year a lot of my outr end up hitting first
Round leader also you get him for a top 10 after round one at three to one sunj m I just mentioned second the PG tour last two years being either first round lead or within two of the lead after round one 33 to1 him first round leader top 10 after round one plus
335 uh and then Eric Cole uh he’s going to make another appearance with my betting card 55 to1 first round leader top 10 for round one plus 400 and then JT Poston 66 to one first round leader uh he’s been within five of the lead uh six times over the last two
Year or with two of the lead after run one six times uh 66 to one for first round leader top 10 after round one plus 500 so I am staggering these bets where if I hit uh two of the top 10 I love making money uh even if I don’t hit the
First round leader there if I end up hitting first- round leader one of those obviously it cashes um yeah that’s really all I’m looking for with those I’m gonna have a little fun on H Thursday and if this goes horribly then you’ll never see me bet this stuff again
But so that’s that’s something that I started doing too like just like I said with my outrights I started taking them all T5 I started doing my first round leaders uh T5 I’m considering doing um only t5s okay just that’s all you’re going to bet for the entire like your no no no
Sorry only first round like first round top fives no first round leader okay and just like see how many I can get into that I’m considering that I know there’s a few other guys on Twitter that do that um they just bet first round leader T5 or first round leader
T10 um but yeah I mean I I like all those okay all right cool um you not no Denny though no no Denny I’m I’m just I’m just kind of a never Denny guy I had a little love affair with him last summer and so
So now that you say that I I have Denny McCarthy I have a list of my I like made a list of my enemies and featuring that list is um Doug Peterson for all of the insane decisions that he makes that affect the spread that he needs to be invest at for
Uh I have the city of Baltimore I have the entire AFC North I have the City of Austin I have the guy that stole my dogs and then I have Denny McCarthy and I don’t remember why but I think it was because I had like a massive firstr
Leader and then he just comes out of nowhere and steals it was that The Travelers I I don’t remember because I because I I think that I think I think you were cursing McCarthy at the Travers like 62 or something in the afternoon I think he stole it from yeah yeah I think
I had like a lot like I stood to win a lot if he just could have and and then he stole it away maybe you maybe you had Keegan for the for first round lead oh that’s what it was and then McCarthy stole it and then Keegan up winning the
Tournament I don’t I don’t think I don’t think he had Keegan to win the tournament though no I don’t think I did either that was a rough one yeah yeah uh and and then I think the next week was the faithful Rock and Morgan debacle uh which we round back to that so
Um I I didn’t mention he’s on my betting card I know Cam Davis is really popular I get it I think this is gonna be my closing thought I don’t know why I want to close on Cam Davis but I think he’s gonna have a really good year in the
Pga2 where for whatever reason just didn’t find his way my betting card um but he’s good short iron player decent putter decent birdie rates good finish here I think is in the past of cap leis so um if you have on your card and I don’t hate it uh just for whatever
Reason just didn’t find his way on mine but I he was probably one of the last guys off yeah he’s he’s one of those guys too where I mean I feel like I I like watching all the Camerons because my name is Cameron but um I didn’t think he
Was gonna win either and then you told me that he’s already won and I was like well it doesn’t count because I wasn’t watching golf at that time so in my eyes he hasn’t won yet um do you have any matchups no I don’t do
Matchups anymore I I I’ve retired I I lo I lost my fi with matchups I used to be that used to be my bread and butter and for whatever reason I just I just went cold and I went real cold and it’s like feel like that’s kind of the same
Sentiment that I have with placements yeah I am just I am finding you know diving more into placements and I don’t have to worry about another guy at that point I’ve also I also think the books are a lot sharper with their with their match up now where it’s harder to find
Edges at this point so it’s kind kapper is really good at matchups because it’s I feel as it’s more of like a gut feel you know gut handicapping thing and for me it’s it just isn’t and it’s gotten a lot harder it’s it got to a point where
It got a lot harder to be like okay this guy’s a clear advantage over this guy they’re doing a better job pairing them and I think at that point I just said you know what screw it and stop doing it yeah okay um is sep straa a better iron
Player than Cam Davis I feel like he is um on paper yes but I think I think just in general they’re close so Seth just got second at the Hero World Challenge I didn’t know that yeah that’s another good sleeper pick that’s another guy just missed off my betting card I
Think I think for me I I think I think at the hero it’s a lot of long iron shots uh which is why I liked him there here’s a lot of short irons and he’s not very good with his wedges well he’s better than the tour average at least
Like I I have I have him from under 150 over the last two years uh you know as one of the lowest rated guys in this field now maybe he was now maybe he was better last year let me take a this is that was a two-year sample size let take a look
At what he did last year he’s paired up with Cam Davis in a matchup cam is better than him from 50 to 100 okay I so I take that I so I I take that back so last two years he’s exactly 50th percentile on shars game per shot he
Improved on that metric in 2023 to 70th percentile so he’s gotten better I will concede that so you know what if he’s a better player with his wedges now I don’t hate that um I don’t hate that play he’s he’s plus 105 um against Cam
Davis uh I had I had M Hughes over like putam or hadwin I think you kind of talk me off those uh I’m I’m probably gonna fade cam young um it was with another guy I liked uh wendam Clark at plus 110 and um I think I’m gonna bet seah in
Over um Justin Rose okay but I have a question mark by that because I think I wanted to ask about Justin Rose just because I don’t really watch him all that much um okay I mean I mean he’s he’s kind of you know he’s getting older not as good off
The te lost a lot of Pop iron plays still pretty decent um not good with putter used to Be he’s he’s definitely he’s steady like he’s probably going to finish t18 to t24 this week while SE has a pretty high um you know variance where he’s going to finish so what’ you say you got plus money on that uh Seath I Got no seah Heath is minus 135 oh that’s a lot I think I think I would lay off of that point it it could go really bad for sah this week you think so yeah that’s a lot of juice delay for a lot of I I
Think I think sah I think I think you really should consider like first round leader or like top 10 for the first round because you’re going to know if he’s got it or not um out of the jump okay okay uh and I think I want to
Take I think I want to find a a matchup with uh with Max in it too um let’s see here maybe like spe so he’s paired up with Xander Patrick and Patrick Klay and ludvig um he’s plus 120 to Patrick Klay and plus 105 to Xander I would probably take him plus
120 over Klay yeah even though even though I like is yeah even though I like Klay this week that’s you know a good price and Klay could just be fall in his face on berm and maybe I’m just overthinking it so I don’t mind that okay yeah
Okay um any other let’s see Vic over Vic is plus 130 to Scotty yeah I mean I made the case at the top of the show I like Scotty a lot better than Vic at this course but if more C plus 165 to Scotty that one I
Would be interested in I think that’s a lot of plus money for a guy who listen the weather port’s kind of turning his favor now where it’s not going to be as windy you know know he could go out just win this thing and win that
Matchup Colin moral plus 120 to Vic I like that actually I like that actually I I like that a lot actually dang maybe danger because I suck a match it’s dangerous because I suck a match up but maybe because I’m not actually betting this and just giving my take that’s actually a good
Thing for you yeah maybe that’s how I’ll get involved in the in the morawa um on top of the first round leader okay all right well we’re an hour um I got nothing else you got anything else no I don’t think so um yeah uh NFL show this week or no yeah
I mean I I would like to record one it depends on what kapper and if he gets his voice back if not we’ll bring you back up uh to go over NFL picks so otherwise though uh thanks for listening uh make sure to rate uh review And
Subscribe to the golf gaming podcast on Spotify and apple we haven’t got a review in a while so let us know what you think here also make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel uh follow us on X um yeah good luck with your bets this
Week good to be back in the swing of things and uh we’ll see you on Thursday for our NFL pick show best Lu L ride
