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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Century DFS tactics show got a lot to cover for you all we need to figure out who our top plays are who the players we want to Pivot to players we want to fade away from of course I want
To hear from you all in case you all have made any Wagers who you think you are focused on this week uh and all that uh got a lot to cover so let’s not waste any more time all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy
National.com it is the best tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media
First off my X and Instagram where I post research every week on the PGA tour and that came out this past Monday around the previous 10 winners here at capala so if you want to see the research that I do every week for the PJ tour give me a follow at your preferred
Social media site X or Instagram X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my weekly playe exposure and that’ll be no different that comes out after the show every Wednesday on calls calls uh and the DFS tactic show so if you want to see those bits of
Information then give me a follow over at X as well and lastly for social media gabes X handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe uh it’s a very good read gets you well prepared for the week at hand normally I would say that uh you are
Going to be able to join us in his substat chat every Wednesday he’s not hosting that this week it will return next week for the full for the First full field PGA event of the year so you don’t want to miss out go subscribe to
Gabes article it is free to do so and if you are a subscriber you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday as we continue the DFS talk over there after Call’s calls so uh go follow him over on social media and subscribe to that article and then
Lastly we’re live chat is open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which I will provide momentarily after the intro here want to hear your thoughts on that and then I want to hear if you’ve made any Wagers who the players are that you’re focused
On or perhaps fading away from all that good stuff so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 century and we are going to start as I promised Monday and failed for you all uh Monday uh promise you all to look at the wind we are doing that this evening
And you can see this is the full forecast I figured uh we’ll do a little bit more in-depth look at the weather considering uh just forgot to on Monday uh but while that is uh while you are looking at that let me type out this poll question very very quickly uh start a
Poll uh and the poll question is uh what place does the highest debutant finish this week and I’ll give you four options win top five top uh top 10 or top 20 um so let me post that out what place does the highest debutant finish this
Week and post that there we go so there the poll question is out for you all uh please if you are watching this uh please fill that out would love to uh hear the community’s thoughts on that and um if you are able to join us in
Chat put in who you think is going to be the highest debutant but anyway we’re going to look at windfinder here very quickly uh sometimes the wind can play a decent Siz factor for performance at kaaloa uh most notably you know 2020 I believe it was uh when the winds were
Just howling all weekend long for this week you see tomorrow relatively calm um in the mid um Mid teens for gusts maybe reaching double digits sustained winds now Friday and Saturday looks like the winds will pick up a little bit in the afternoon but no um no half of the draw
Or favor of the draw to focus on as this is only a 50 man 59 man field uh and and a no cut event so we don’t have to worry about uh you know trying to get six to six through or focusing on a good half
Of the draw as everybody’s going to play all four rounds so you see Friday and Saturday the wind could pick up maybe a little bit if you wanted if you wanted to be the um most uh analytical about this maybe perhaps the players that are uh the latest of tea times on Friday
Could be uh you know the most affected or most negatively affected I’m not going to put any weight really into the uh into the wind or into the tea time U they’re looking at tea times there just not enough here for me especially as a no cut event and then on
Sunday you can see is looks to be beautiful um mid 70s and no wind at all if we go into Oh I thought we would have a super forecast there is no super forecast so that’s what we have for um KAAL this weekend so a little bit of
Wind Friday afternoon a little bit of wind maybe Saturday afternoon uh but overall no half of the draw to focus on um since everybody is going to make the cut unless there’s a withdrawal so just uh just play your guys who you think is going to who play the best so with that
Out of the way we’ll move on over to Fantasy naal and um I originally had the wind forecast or windy moderate and windy filters I’m not going to look at those instead let’s just recap very quickly the top uh players that play when a round is easy let me unstar these
Because I was gathering um the most uh projected ownerships very recently uh I just got home from a whiffle ball game uh we need to keep Ricky actually where or not Ricky gosh dang it Rory Rory starred as he doesn’t have a tea time okay keep the
Easy round to par filter wi around has been easy this past calendar year your top performers have been Colin morawa ludvic obar Eric Cole Xander Schley Adam hadwin Victor hin Patrick kley Russell Henley Tom Kim and luk list so make sure you give these players a boost in your
Lineups or in your rankings or in your considerations these players have been the best when around is easy and very very very rarely does the C does capoa in the century not play easy I see we have at least one or two answers in the
Poll right now um just one right now a top 20 okay so again while a debutant has not won at least for a long while if ever here at the century it does not preclude them from playing well so um one vote here for a top 20 interesting
But nothing inside the top 10 all right so with that uh this is a decent segue since we’ve been focused on easy to par all week that’s going to give you a pretty good baseline or a pretty good feel for the players that have risen in my rankings uh fairly significantly so
Let’s go ahead and jump to the mixed condition model that I have made for this week’s Century now there are a couple of changes from Monday night when I was going through some of these uh some of the in-depth uh metrics and filters and whatnot so I will try to explain that as
Best as I can we’re going to start with 10% off the te when a round is easy now I originally did not have anything in off the tea and then Monday night we go back and take a look at one of or we take a look at last year’s mixed
Condition model which was a decent results yielded decent results from last year’s century and off the te was in there this same combination of metric and filter off the te when it’s easy and it was one of the more predictive um metrics that I used based on the players who finished in the
Top 10 we didn’t go over that um in the in the actual show uh live but I went ahead and looked at that a little bit yesterday uh in preparation for my mixed condition model and it was one of the more uh predictive models so 10% off the
Tea went around is easy 15% approach look I’ve I’ve basically focused on a couple of different shot types this week um 15% might be a bit heavy uh based on the numbers that we’ve seen this week but I’m always going to prefer approach-based players um so that’s just a little bit
Of my bias in there uh and up front for you all as the viewers and I still think um approach is going to be pretty darn important um it’s been the most important for your top 10 your top fives uh just not for your winners so 15% Strokes going approach
15% on Tiff Eagle Bermuda specifically Tiff Eagle Bermuda those courses the bay uh Bay Hill host of the Arnold Palmer um PJ National used to be the Honda um not sure what it is for this year but PJ National of course caloa where we where
We are this week Port Royal the host of the Butterfield Bur muda and then the RSM Seaside Plantation and um or Sea Island excuse me Plantation and seaside course uh those are the courses that make up uh the full entire data set for this Tiff Eagle Bermuda or those are the
Courses that have Tiff Eagle Bermuda greens and I went into a little bit in depth um Monday evening at the end of the show showing the correlation between putting especially at the RSM but putting on Eagle Bermuda in general and performance here at the century so 15%
In putting on Tiff Eagle bruda now you’ll notice I’m going all the way back to 2019 just to make it statist statistically significant uh this and one other metric which is also putting based are the only metrics or only um stats that I’m using that go back further than the beginning
Of this calendar year and I tried to notate that for you all here all 2019 um all 2023 Etc yeah see I would like to have zoomed in for you all but it uh takes off too much on the left side of your screen but anyway 15% in putting on
Tiff Eagle Bera 5% opportunities gain now we didn’t talk any about this on Monday evening I tried to go into proximity I didn’t feel comfortable that a that total procs or a certain range of proximity made uh since you know based on the numbers but with the with the size that these greens
Are I don’t want to look at just greens and regulation I don’t want to look at um I I’ve got a lot in approach already opportunities gained always seems to uh be that missing metric whenever I am focused on uh or you know not focusing on proximity is the best way I should
Say that so 5% opportunities when it’s easy again all of this is going to be with easy to par filters because kaaloa is easy 15% and birdies are better gained when it’s easy we spend a lot of time talking about how you need to go low
Here you really do cuz um it it’s still easy so bires are better I didn’t feel comfortable enough that there were going to be enough Eagles to look at them by themselves so that might be one weakness if Eagles indeed are plentiful enough that you would want to um single out the
Eagles gained perhaps there’s players that are just good at Eagles but maybe not necessarily birdies so that could be one potential um downfall or weakness of the of the model but I just felt more comfortable doing birdies or better and I spent a lot of time on Monday talking
About bogey avoidance and how it’s been the most consistent consistent metric here at capala between bogey avoidance and Birdie’s gained every single player who has played multiple years of the century the past five years anyone who has averaged the top 20 average the top 20 has been positive in bogey
Avoidance so you just can’t you can’t ignore that so 10% that might be a little bit heavy this is kind of my tangent my angle that I’m attacking with this week hoping that um hoping that I found uh the missing piece to make the most optimal mix condition model so I
Wouldn’t fault someone if they wanted to go with 5% but I do think it’s correct to factor in bogey avoidance and I spent some time or I mentioned on Monday talking how I would have used or I was probably going to use long courses I ended up going with the easy
To par filter because I much prefer going with a scoring metric like bogey avoidance part’s gained with a scoring filter easy to par difficult to par and whatnot plus when I looked at the um top 10 top 15 bottom 10 B bottom 15 of bogey avoidance with the two filters long course and
Easy the players that were bogey avoidance or that were pretty poor and bogey avoidance when it was easy are the same players that uh have struggled here capala so it it matched so there’s the explanation on the scoring again a little bit a little bit High here but
That’s just my angle but I think it is correct to look at a little bit of B bogy avoidance 5% in all part 3es I did end up putting par 3es in I wasn’t sure I was going to um but looking back through some more of the years more than
Just the two years that we looked at um m Night Part 3s did play a little bit of a factor for for your Elite finishers so I only have it at 5% there are only three par 3es here it’s not going to be a big uh contribution to someone winning
But it perhaps could give us an idea on players who could who could perhaps play well maybe not necessarily our winner so 5% there only 5% in all par fours um even though they are somewhat important I did kind of run out of percentage I did want to focus on the BG
Avoidance um I ended up putting a little bit of opportunities gained in there um so only 5% on par fours maybe a little light there but uh I just wanted to emphasize the par fives par fives specifically 500 to 550 yards uh we looked Monday night that you know all
Almost all The Strokes gained um four the par fives come in this range three of the four par five lives at kaaloa fall to this range so we’re just focusing on those on that range and it’s a little bit um we’re leaving out the par five8 or yeah the
Par five1 18th that plays 677 it kind of is what it is uh the 500 to 550 par FS were much more correlating to success than just all par fives and lastly three putt avoidance we looked little we looked at this a little bit on Sunday evening but didn’t really go
There go much into it on Monday three put avoidance again on Tiff Eagle those same courses so there’s a look at the mixed condition model and perhaps some of the weaknesses of it I’ve mentioned a couple of things um if around the green matters it generally doesn’t if around the green
Ends up mattering I don’t think distance is going to um again I I could be a little bit too heavy in the bogey avoidance I think it should be at least 5% I ended up putting 10 probably correct to be five but we’ll see uh the
Par fours might be a t a touch light at 5% maybe these need to be 10% but I just really wanted to emphasize the par fives and if Pro you know if a certain proximity total procs anything to that effect matters I’ll be weak to that but
There’s a look at the mixed condition model for the 2024 Century that I have made for the week let’s go ahead head and go to the reveal of my rankings so Scotty sheffler number one colum morawa is second Xander third Ricky fourth Patrick kley RS out the top five Max hom
Tom Kim Victor hoflin ludc Oar and Andrew putam round out my top 10 uh a reminder since it’s been a little while how I put together my rankings based on three factors the first is the FC rank uh it is just a a pure rank based on the mixed condition
Model that we just went through in fantasy National and then fantasy National ranks your players based on the metrics and percentages you put in there course value this is an attempt to give a player a value on how well they have played that course in the past 5 years
Lower the number the better and of course we are playing DFS we’re trying to find you know unique plays so percent owned also is a factor in my mixed condition model so there’s a look at my top 10 no real surprise here I don’t think um always can argue the
The Ordering of some of these players ludvic Ober is the highest debutant you can tell a debutant by the fact that they doesn’t have a course value or this is in your uh view uh blank there is a number in here uh it’s just arbitrarily
High to um because we don’t know if a player is going to like a course or not we can assume but we don’t know for sure the one surprise for me is actually Andrew putam being 10th and a lot of that is being helped by the fact that he
Is uh very unique but he’s actually played kaaloa and he played it well his one time here or maybe it was a couple times he’s he’s played it somewhat well much better than Victor havin has per se putham has played it fairly well uniqueness look he’s fourth in on Tiff
Eagle Bermuda really really likes Tiff Eagle Bermuda now he’s definitely going to uh need to get better at getting birdies but he also really likes the length of these par fivs which I’ve wanted to emphasize so after I looked at the stats it didn’t surprise me why
Putham Rose but to see him initially in the top 10 I was a little surprised otherwise I mean Victor havland with Noah around the green in here he’s going to rise significantly but you see even or you know with the members of fantasy National they’re kind of lower on him
Because they know he has not played well here uh Ricky is a little bit um you know low in terms of projected ownership uh and he’s played you know really well the one time he was here in the past five years so there’s a look at my rankings
Or at least my top 10 10 for the century enough rambling on that let’s uh let’s go on or sort on the price board figure out where the chalk is and how we can maneuver around that uh figure out who some f or who our top
Uh pivots might be and whatnot so we want to sort on salary goodness gracious I am really out of practice all right in the 10ks in the five digits we have three players this week since Rory is not here Scotty sheffler Victor hin and Xander uh I mean these all all three of
These guys you know rated out very well Scotty is number one and look I mean the fact that he’s actually in the top maybe 40% or so 30 maybe top third in this field on Tiff Eagle Bermuda at anytime he’s going to putt field average you got to really think about
Scotty Sheffer so number one iron player number seven and birdies are better gained when it’s easy now these short par fives haven’t been his best but he voids Bogies gives himself a lot of opportunities it’s all about whether this putter is going to work and that’s actually not even his you know
Lowest statistic we just saw the par fives were 25th his par 3es are 28th out of 59 but how much of the part three is goingon to matter I don’t think much so I really like Scotty sheffler have no problem with him being number one in my
Rankings and I’m definitely going to be using him Xander withdrew last year but he is still The Strokes game total uh leader the past five years here uh just very solid at kaaloa Victor hin it depends on if you think there is a big uh increase in performance now
That he’s played here three years in a row this will be his fourth the first two years were really bad last year he tied for 18th which is fine but if you’re headlining your team with that on a tie for 18th you’re you’re falling behind in your DFS lineups so that’s why
He’s clearly the third choice of the three in the 10ks so I’m just going to go straight by the rankings for me in the 10 in the 10 C in the five digits Scotty Sheffer is my number one player in the top uh in the five digits then I’ll go Xander then
I’ll go Victor havin if his ownership does indeed stay low I might have a little bit more of havin than what I’m insinuating I just don’t see his ownership being that low I think Victor hin is going to be more uh popular than just 16% my guess would be closer to the 20%
But I can just go by what is projected right now at Fantasy National and he they’re labeling him right at 16% so I’ll go Sheffer then then Xander then Victor moving to the nks and I I zoom in for you all a little bit on this yeah in
The nks we have Patrick kley Max hom wendham Clark Matt Fitzpatrick Brian Harmon Terrell Hatton Colin morawa and Tommy Fleetwood there is a lot of have and have not in here at least relative to each other Colin morawa second in my rankings the most projected owned player
Going to be very very popular but for good reason he has played very well here at kaaloa always uh hits his irons well Tiff Eagle Bermuda he’s actually not too bad on he’s about field average on Tiff Eagle Bermuda so much like Scotty Sheffer if you think the putter isn’t
Going to hold him back it’s a strong play play goes low low enough when it’s easy kley has played very well here H’s been okay here um so nothing wrong there although H might be a fade for me the irons haven’t been great um on tiffo Bermuda he’s he’s good not excellent but
Good he’s actually not been the greatest at going low when it’s easy and these par fivs have been uh a struggle for someone Elite like maxom so he might be a bit of a fade kly I can take or leave I’m not in love with it I don’t like the idea of
Headlining my team with kley I I just don’t like I said homo might be a bit of a fade Windam Clark um this seems like it should fit Windham Clark fairly well third in putting on Tiff Eagle Bermuda I’m not too worried about the
Irons I mean he kind of had a little bit of a fall off after his win at the US Open you can you can expect that or you know you’re okay with that still still a quickly Rising uh player in the PGA Tour scene PGA Tour rankings his big downfall
Has been these very short par fives I don’t think that’s going to be too much of an issue I kind of like Windam Clark this week not so much on Matthew Fitzpatrick I always try to look at Fitzpatrick when it’s difficult you see the birdies are better gained is is really low really
Bad I’m much more in tune when it’s difficult that’s generally when he plays his best because even the bogey avoidance when it’s easy he’s not been all that great at and you see he’s not getting a whole lot of love but he’s played it okay here I don’t know uh lukewarm on Fitzpatrick
I don’t like Brian Harmon I don’t really have a good feel on Terrell Hatton either um he’s a debutant um the iron it just doesn’t feel like a very good Hatton course he feels he Hatton feels more you know short game and and like a Patrick Reed
Style when it’s difficult uh you need the putter need the around the green so I just don’t have a good strong feeling on on hat we talked about morawa Fleetwood is is fine I suppose getting hurt a lot I imagine at least um per fantasy National because he’s a debutant
I would much go Fleetwood over Terrell haton even though they’re backto back in my uh rankings I think I would go much more on Tommy Fleetwood if that’s the case highlight the two rows and then kind of scroll over here fleetwood’s irons are better um putter Terrell Hatton
Supposedly better but I always think of Terrell hatting on bent so bar is better I have no issue with with Tommy Fleetwood the ability to go low off the te fleetwood’s a little bit better now Tommy hasn’t given himself a lot of opportunities that’s been his downfall that’s been his downfall and
Then lastly if they they end up mattering the par 3s Tommy fleetwood’s much better at than Terrell Hatton so I think that might be a slight tiebreaker for me I’ll go Tommy Fleetwood over Tyrell Hatton in the 9ks it’s it’s close but there’s a look at my 9ks um
Like I said I’m going to use Mora he’s going to be the most owned player for good reason I just think it’s a safe play good play kley is okay I do like wam Clark even though he’s the lowest ranked of every one of the 9ks for me other than
Fitzpatrick I I do like wind Clark I don’t have a great feel on Terrell Hatton no thank you on Harmon no thank you on Fitzpatrick H’s a H’s gonna be uh one of those um gutsy fades for me I can’t call it a full fade but it’ll be a
Fade moving into the 8ks Tom Kim Jordan spe ludvick Oar Ricky Fowler Jason day Tony Fen now Cameron young Sam Burns sunjay and hii uh yeah just a lot of Hales and Have Nots again Ricky Fowler fourth Tom Kim seventh Ludi obar ninth and oar is really only getting hurt by the fact
That he’s never played this before so this value is a little bit higher uh because you see at least analytically purely by the analytics without taking into consideration course you know history percent owned fantasy National has at second the irons haven’t been good but that didn’t stop him from
Winning the RSM he putt extremely well at the RSM he number one birdie or better gained player when it’s easy number one off the tea oar’s got a lot going for him he’s going to be popular I think so that might be a reason to limit
Your usage of him but I think it’s going to be a good play he’s probably the player that uh I would pick him as the top debutant I I know that’s not really going out on a limb but I I don’t foresee Oar struggling too much here Famous Last Words a lot of
People like Jordan spe this week or at least you know talking about wagering they’ve wagered Jordan spe I’m I’m just not there I don’t think iron’s having been great he’s not the best putter on specifically Tiff Eagle he do hadn’t gone low like spe might be another fade for
Me Ricky I’m probably going to use if he’s this low of ownership especially since he’s fourth I’m a little surprised Tony fenal Falls as far as he does in my rankings the putter really hurts him specifically on this surface surprisingly he hasn’t been the best at birdies are better gain when it’s easy
I I have to think that he’ll be he’ll be fine in that regard but even so this is probably a fade for me um with that with the bulky putter I like Tony fenale for the entire year but for the century specifically this this might be a
Fade Cameron young finished top 15 or yeah finished tied for 13th his one time played here okay I suppose the irons are the worst in the field well second worst behind Jason day or ahead of Jason day but really really bad the putter not great on this
Surface that’s a that’s very very low ownership for somebody who’s who feels like this game this course suits his game if you want if you’re going to believe a whole lot of the putter get uh give Sam Burns a look number one on Tiff Eagle Bermuda but you see the course
Value it’s really bad he has really struggled here sunjay is going to be popular he’s generally fairly solid here at kaaloa Hideki I just think is a too much of an injury risk or withdrawal risk uh even though we haven’t heard much about you know any nagging injuries
From Hideki uh it’s just too much risk for me so in the 8ks probably use quite a bit of Ricky Fowler if he is indeed only at 14 and a half% Tom Kim’s going to get a lot of love I’ll try to limit my use of him but
He’ll probably be fairly decent oberg is going to be used and used a lot so I’ll try to limit my usage of him but I I I think he’ll I think he’ll play well this week I I like Cameron young because this feels like it should fit his
Game moving into the upper sevens Keegan SE straa Russell Henley Justin Rose sahit deala Lucas Glover Cory and Cory Connors so these eight is that eight seven my bold suggestion is in this in this range I really like sep straa who tied for 21st last year it’s not
Great the putter is pretty darn good and he’s he’s a base Bermuda putter you think about his win at uh the very very difficult Honda granted it’s a couple years ago now but he can put this surface his irons are coming around the number one player at this length of par
Fives I really like sep sta this this year or this week and a lot of the former Champions you take a look at like Cameron Smith uh finished like 25th 17th and then won you have Xander he finished 21st and then wins in his second year
And I’m not saying SE star is going to win but I do think he’s going to play extremely well so this is my you know bold suggestion to one one of maybe a couple of players that if they don’t play well I’m going to lose I like sep
Straka a lot no thank you on Keegan he has really really struggled here um Russell Henley all about the irons okay I suppose um surprisingly sahit Gala is my lowest rated player I I don’t know I he he did not play this very very well last year at all finished
33rd out of 38 or 39 none of the metrics really pop for him so that’s why he’s the lowest I don’t hate sahit tala this week I really don’t but I in the upper sevens I’m just focused on sep straa no thank you on Keegan Russell
Lley is fine just kind of yeah Justin Rose not really all that excited about no thank you at all on Cory Connors and no thank you on Lucas Glover so really in the upper sevens it’s kind of sep straa maybe a touch of Henley and Rose moving to the low sevens Eric Cole
Kirk kyama Denny McCarthy Harris English JT Poston milono Cam Davis sew Kim Adam hadwin and Nick Taylor so these 10 Cole’s going to be very popular probably for good reason just outside of my top 10 top 10 and irons eighth on this specific surface second and birdies are better gained
Just really really strong and the one thing you can knock about him is is off the tea these Fairways are so darn wide I just don’t think it’s going to hurt him all that much that’s why he’s one of the more popular plays especially down
Lower in the price board so if you can avoid him I would suggest you do so but if you don’t I understand why it’s a it’s a really really good play I think don’t hate Denny McCarthy as a debutant either all around that putter um I think
His irons are getting better I think he’s going to show out quite quite a bit this year I would not be surprised if he wins at some point this year for this week I don’t hate it he’s the number one number two putter number one three putt avoider he’s also top 10
In par fours and I think I’m a little light on the par fours I don’t hate Denny McCarthy either Harris English is a former winner here Harris English and sep strer are the two bold plays that I have for this week Harris English if he doesn’t play well if SE ster doesn’t
Play well I’m going to lose Harris English won this event two years ago number or top five on this surface the irons are good he’s getting healthy I’m all in on Harris English especially if this 6.2% is indeed accurate poon’s getting some love okay I don’t love it I don’t hate
It I don’t like the ownership the players fine I don’t like the ownership no thanks on Grio he’s really falling off uh lately towards the end of the PJ tour season and the fall Cam Davis I want to like I hate this ownership he is very very popular and that putter can get
Bulky can get pretty pretty poor um the irons haven’t been the greatest either I want to like Cam Davis might not be this week might not be this week for Cam Davis no thanks on SEIU no thanks on hadwin uh like I said I’m just kind of all in
On um on Harris English in the low sevens finally we go to the 6ks uh your most projected own player the 6ks getting a whole lot of love is Luke list which is a shame because I really wanted to Hype up luk list I kind of highlighted him at the end of the
Show Monday at this percentage it’s close to a fade I’m going to use some Luke list especially since I can squeeze in a lot going all the way down to 62 in those stars and scrubs lineups but at that percentage it is close to a fade
He is getting a whole lot of love elsewhere in the 6ks if you want to believe in the prior course form Tom hogi finished third is either last year or two years ago you know he’s always a very good iron player the putter is not terrible on this surface
H okay maybe okay maybe I’ll be using putam I can said top 15 his one time here or maybe a top average is a top 20 very good on the surface top 20 with the irons fifth at the specific range of par five so I’ll be using some
Putam another debutant to take a look at is Vincent Norman and all of that is based on his par five prowess he devours par fivs the irons haven’t been good he is really bad on this specific surface it’s all about the par FS which he’s top 10 at the specific length he’s
Also top five off the te so that’s another debutant that if you want to get unique I don’t hate at all at 6500 so there’s a look at the price board where the chalk is how I see it playing out some potential pivots who the players I’m fading let’s start making some
Lineups we’re going to start with tiers contests for those who play tiers so tier one we have Scotty sheffler Victor hin and Xander Schley again I don’t I think tiers ownerships are going to be a little bit different than you know what fantasy national projects for the classic
Lineups if Victor hin is drastically lower in tiers in in terms of ownership if you think that than take Victor hin just because of the uniqueness otherwise I’m going to just take Scotty sheffler I know it’s surprising taking the or you know surp or passing over the uh number
One Strokes gain total leader the past five years here at kaaloa just give me Scotty Sheffer especially since as we talked about the putter on this surface is actually kind of good it’s not great it’s not Elite it’s just kind of good so give me Scot Sheffer in tier one not
Particularly close unless you think Holland’s very unique tier two Patrick cley Max hom Windham Clark Matt Fitzpatrick and Terrell Hatton I don’t have a a good feel on Hatton so if you do and you like him I don’t hate it but I’m going to go with
Wam Clark uh again I just feel like this probably fits him pretty well I think he he could be a surprise debutant performer if you’re W to stay away from the debutants then I would take kley but he’s going to be very very popular another thing with Clark is
He’s he’s looking like he’s going to be unique so that’s another bonus I kind of like wam Clark for that regard or in that regard tier three Brian Harmon Colin morawa Tommy Fleetwood Tom Kim and ludvick obar you’re going to have three Heavy Hitters in terms of ownership in here
Morawa Tom Kim and oar uh oar is going to be very popular Colin War car was the most projected on player might be a good uh shoot what did I do might be a good thing on uh uniqueness for Tommy Fleetwood I’m just going to have to take
Col morawa he’s just played this event so darn well the Putter’s good here uh Ober is also you know well Worthy just give me give me Colin Mora with a known commodity especially since winham Clark is a bit of a home run play debutant all that stuff so I’ll take the
The quote safety of col morawa tier four we have Jordan spe Ricky Fowler Jason day Tony fenale Cameron young Sam Burns and Hadi Ricky valer seemingly pretty unique I don’t like spe I don’t like day Cameron young should be okay should be good just give me Ricky Fowler I don’t think it’s
Particularly close in tier four either maybe Cameron young maybe Tony fenale but give me give me Ricky in tier four tier five we have sunj Keegan Bradley sep straa Russell Henley Justin Rose sahit deala and Lucas Glover again pretty easy tier for me it’s it’s sea I’m all in on sea this week
So sunj generally pretty good um a kind of a safer play but you’re also getting a lot of uniqueness I think with sep straka Henley should be okay as well but give me sep straa in tier five lastly tier six JT Poston Cam Davis seu Kim Adam hadwin Nick Taylor Adam shank bernon
Todd don’t like much in here at all Nick Taylor could be could be interesting I know he didn’t play it well his one time he was here not really excited about shank or Brenan Todd or Adam hadwin for that matter and absolutely no thank you on Grio so posted and Davis are extremely
Popular so Nick Taylor might be okay but in tier six I think it’s got to be Cam Davis I don’t love it I really don’t like like it but tier six might have to be Cam Davis so the tiers construction for the century this week I’ll go sheffler I’ll go Windham Clark a
Lot for uniqueness and trying to hit a home run marawa in tier three Ricky Fowler in tier four uh sep straa in tier five Cam Davis in tier six all right let’s move to Classic lineups and figure out how we can or what the chalky lineups are that
Our fellow contestants are building in our big gpps and how we can maneuver around that so if we’re going to build a chalky lineup uh we’ll just start with the two most common plays it’s Xander and col morawa uh already you’re sitting at a 10% on two players essentially almost
30% projected on on morawa almost or 25% exactly on Xander it’s a lot of ownership in those two players so this is this is a CH this is going to be the bulk of a lot of chalky lineups I think moving down into the eights you’ve got Oar yeah oar is
Definitely probably in this maybe not they might come off of um might come off of Xander to maybe can’t Le or hom to try to save a little bit of money but oar is definitely in this uh he’s going to be wildly popular I would think at
87 uh over 20% as well now it leav only leaves them you know 7,400 per player you know they’re they’re skipping over the Tony fenale the sunjay most likely uh looking like Eric co uh actually no they probably could go sunj in this go sunj Eric
Cole yeah 67 would go all the way down to either Tom hogy or Luke list um I don’t want to bottom them out at that so let me see what I can do here the Cameron Davis I’m trying to prevent them from going to the 6ks and save luk
List for the stars and scrubs chalky lineup so Cam Davis leaves leaves our fellow contestants 75 50 per it’s just Poston and Cole looks like maybe Russell Henley but I’ll just use the more projected own players so JT Poston and Eric Cole leaving a little
Bit of money on the table 500 on the table but 215% projected ownership uh matching in these gpps very very chalky lineup here just horrendous um don’t want any part of that again a lot of players that I like Xander obviously more Kawa I’ll be using some Oar just can’t put all these
Players together it’s going to be too chalky if you’re trying to uh trying to really really have the chance to uh rise in your gpps this is probably a pretty decent uh shoot 50/50 lineup where you know first place and and the bottom pay is the same
So in your 50/50s and and and whatnot maybe a single entry as well but uh this is really chalky for a gpp if they’re going to go stars and scrubs and I’m only and I’m doing this because luk list is so dag on popular there go Sheffer luk list
Um this might be Xander but let’s let’s throw in uh another name here just to just to get some new names in here this easily as well could be Patrick Klay I’m just using hom to get 200 in savings uh depending on how greedy the player is they might actually try to fit
Colum morawa in this I think that’s a little bit too much oar is definitely uh probably in this as well yeah I was going to try to do one without o lud viig oar uh in fact let’s do that sunj we’ll drop down to sunj and again you got this
7500 per player here this is H we’ll go Russell Henley this time and then Eric Cole uh no that’s actually 100 over that’d be JT Poston so there’s another fairly chalky or perhaps one of the more chalky stars in scrub lineups but still a fairly chalky lineup overall going all the way
Up to sheffler going all the way down to Luke list who’s getting a lot of love as well so how are we going to maneuver around these chalky lineups well I don’t particularly like Victor hin but if he is in fact so very very um scarcely owned compared to the
Other two you might want to think about that otherwise you know you’re going to have to choose where you’re going to U plant your flag on or who you’re going to plant your flag on at the top of the board whether it’s Scotty whether it’s Xander maybe you do a combination of
Like kley and morawa or whatnot I’m going to try to build a balance build first uh as I’ve been leaning the other way uh but if we’re going to do a balance build let’s go let’s start with U let’s start with Patrick kley as I just I’m not crazy about Max hom and
Then I’ll go wendam Clark again I I just think that he could be a surprise debutant uh doing a lot of wind and Clark instead of of morawa for the uniqueness and this should fit him fairly well with this we maybe could take a ludvic Oar if we felt like we
Don’t have to could come down to maybe a Tom Kim uh Ricky Fowler yeah we’ll throw Ricky in this since I’m trying to build this as a more more balanced is build uh moving on down you know sep Shaka is somebody I’m very very high on
But you know I’m saving that that one in there so we have 7,300 per player again I mentioned I don’t hate Denny McCarthy at all around that Putter and the irons are getting them much better we’ve been fairly unique enough that I think we could probably take an Eric Cole in this
Lineup um not excited about a whole lot else down here so let’s throw in Eric Cole Denny McCarthy leaves us 7200 uh poon is fine uh you wouldn’t be able to combine that with Eric Cole I don’t think I think that’s getting starting to get a little too
Popular Cam Davis much the same again I’m not too crazy about sewo or Adam hin we bottom this out at Nick Taylor I don’t think I don’t think that’s an awful idea we’re we’re putting we’re saving $200 but you know compared to the 21 Point whatever God awful percentage it
Was you know we’re we’re saving a whole lot of percentage here kley has played extremely well here in the past Ricky has played well here in the past Eric Cole everybody seems to be on him he’s been playing very well a lot more speculative down here I give you that
But I think Denny McCarthy could be a surprise especially with the Putter and how how important putting is here at kaaloa Nick Taylor much the same so there’s a unique look at a balanced lineup one that I you know I wouldn’t mind throwing in there uh but I would
Definitely be moving some of these pieces around but where I’ve been going more often than not is in these stars and scrubs look kind of or feel of lineups again number one player in my lineup I’m going to plant my flag and use Scotty shefer this week I would like
To use col morawa I don’t think I’ll be able to I’m only able to do this because I’m again I’m a I’m willing to use some luk list Andrew putam 6,400 Vincent Norman 65 500 here’s some uniqueness that I do not mind going down to so I will I’ll put in Andrew
Putam for now don’t know if I’m confident or crazy enough to do both but that’s one way you can get a lot of uniqueness like if you were willing to do both putam and uh gosh dang it uh putham and Norman mental freeze Vincent Norman I mean they saving
Up a whole lot here where you could go Scotty you could go Colin Tom Kim you still have 8,100 you know that’s sunjay if you’re there sep straa if you’re there I don’t know if I am that confident in doing that but even so we can still look at
Doing a Sheffer and morawa this could easily be Windham Clark maybe you have a strong feeling on Hatton or Fleetwood evening P thanks for jumping in chat not a problem at all uh I’m just glad you you take the time to to drop in and and catch the content hopefully
Things have been well Happy New Year to you um I see hopefully that is you that voted to the top 10 um who do you think is going to be the top debutant I mean I didn’t necessar I didn’t exactly go out on the limb I still think it’s going to
Be lud VI goar but I’ve given you I’ve given a couple of of interesting names to perhaps think about for a top debutant but I still think it’s going to be L goar to finalize this stars and scrubs is lineup um you know Scotty Colin Mo Kawa let’s Goan we used Ricky
You know I’m not wildly crazy about Cameron young or Tony fenale I think ludvic obar is probably going to be too expensive and too much ownership but if you’re able to find a way to squeeze it in I I I really do like that now we’re left with 7,400 per
Player this is all revolving around sep straa Harris English if I were to go Oar I can’t do sha in English which is what I’m trying to do since I am very high on both of them so doing those two leaves leaves us at 84 which is f now I don’t hate it
He’s a little popular it could really struggle Cameron young I also don’t hate so pick one of those two for to round out this lineup I’ll go with fenale he’s the more popular of the two but again 15% versus the 18 or whatever that uh stars and scrubs was the chalky
Stars and scrubs if you want to back that off you can go Cameron young make it even lower you probably looking at a pretty unique lineup with these four I mean this percentage is getting you know exacerbated by these two um you know if you wanted to to
Deviate a little bit off of this um English and straa might be a little bit too much for you like I said you can go louic obar I really do like sep straa this week in 7,000 you have Nick Taylor uh I’m not particularly excited about shank or brenon Todd maybe you
Have a strong feeling about one of them Chris Kirk Ben on again I’m not terribly excited about but I mean Chris Kirk rid it out fairly well a lot of that to do with a Putter and his irons have been okay third an opportunity so you know
Maybe Chris Kirk is somebody you take a flyer on but I if I if if it were me I’d probably just go with this and go Vincent Norman leave all that on the table and be pretty unique thanks to the combination of these three so that’s what I have for you all
I’ll stick around for a minute or two see if there are any questions I would love to hear from the community who your do top Debon is where do they finish who wins have you put any Wagers in all that good stuff I like oxa deiton you
Know I I don’t hate it he did not rate out well at all for me I don’t actually hate that the irons I think are a little better than what’s showing obviously the putter is still pretty darn bad um that’s what’s hurting him in the rankings I don’t I I I actually don’t
Hate that P I don’t hate that at all very good when it’s easy when you have to score you think about his win at the Barracuda where you have to score makes a lot of sense he’s actually pretty good off the tea especially when it’s easy he
Does struggle a little bit with these shorter par fives and what surprised me is as good as he is birdies are better Easy he actually struggles with bogey avoidance when it’s easy so that’s kind of what threw me away from uh from batia uh where I went Andrew putam and
Vincent Norman in the 6ks but you know I there was a there was a long while earlier this week I was looking at batia a lot so I like that I like that shout there p i do I think that’s going to do it for for
The show thanks to P for jumping in chat much appreciated whether whether you’re at the end of the show beginning whatever I’m just glad that you’re able to to tune in and watch you take the time to do so thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens
And supports the channel um love what I do trying to give you a stat statistician a data analyst view of golf metrics uh baseball whenever it’s baseball season um you know some optimal plays uh and with the goal of trying to win a little bit of money in the process
Love what I do wouldn’t be able to do it without you all so I thank you all for that for all the Wagers that you have made this week for the century for all of the DFS contests you play this week for the century for this weekend and every
Weekend may all your bets be profitable
