FLEX FRIDAY NBA PRIZEPICKS Player Prop Picks / Bets for FRIDAY, December 29th, 2023

Eric Polzin breaks down this FLEX FRIDAY NBA PRIZEPICKS Player Prop Picks / Bets for FRIDAY, December 29th, 2023 SLATE.

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*PROPS PROCESS*
My process with NBA, NFL, PGA, and MLB PrizePicks and Underdog videos is to show you which lines have the best value behind them. Show you why or why not they will be a good bet. The goal is to give you the viewer enough information to make an educated decision on how to attack the favorable lines that we get.

I will also show which prop numbers we are getting that do not align with the NBA Injury News that we have received thus that day.

If you do not agree with one of the bets do not make them. Know that this is gambling. If a line changes (not in favor of the bet) that means the bet is no longer as good of a bet, and thus probably should chase the bet.

The idea is by attacking the best numbers that we get we can profit in the long term as we attack the best bets with the best EV

“Today’s Bets” Record Since 1/28/2023:
Units Profited = 432
Win % = 60% (927/1547) *13 ties.
(This is a measure of the bets I highlight at the end of the video. This includes all sports. This also includes the Taco Tuesday bets where I tell people to bet 5 individual bets)
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All right everyone welcome back into another props video give me touch on the top prop bets today for Flex Friday on price Pi that’s going to be the concentration but if there are good prop bets and Underdog I’ll bring them up for you guys as well mostly going to be

Concentrating on NBA but all in all just going to be touching on the best bets that we have available today to make the best flex Friday slip that we can Poss so starting out with the NBA slate uh today another pretty big slate so that is going to be exciting uh as I’m

Recording this right now we are not getting any fantasy score props which is unfortunate if anyone’s a 95 member they probably noticed that that has been pretty successful over the past few days for the prop pets that are um you know favorable over a 54% chance to hit um

Obviously that’ll be updating throughout the day hopefully we do get some good uh fantasy score props but looking at it with the first game we got the Knicks versus the magic a one and a half point spread 226 for the over and under we know that Mitchell Robinson is out but

We also know that Jericho Sims is still out uh for the magic Joe Engles he’s out Markel folz he’s out Gary Harris game time decision and then Jonathan Isaac is a game time decision as well now I do think it’s worth noting Wendell Carter is back for the magic but he is not

Really playing that many minutes for them right now MO voder is still getting about 20 minutes or so as well so really and then you got Goa there as well uh you know not really playing that many minutes but still uh if Isaac’s back it really makes all the bigs besides Vagner

And benero not really that appealing and then Jaylen sus has been someone that has been playing well recently but his minuts are capped at 30 so to me The Magik are just a team that we should be staying away from now I’ll take a peak

Here and I’ll show you guys the EV bets that we are currently getting by all means if you guys like any of these go ahead and use those uh but we’ll go and get into the NBA specific tab so I can show you guys the magic and again uh

Nick claxon is going to be a good EV BET right now it’s really the best one that we have going it’s basically the exact opposite of yesterday where yesterday we had so many great Eevee bets to start the day which all in all given how yesterday went where we got some massive

Edges and for NBA purposes uh Michael Porter Jr and Klay Thompson both chalked on props and also DFS all in all we know that that’s the correct process all in all kind of expect to have some regression um I mentioned that two videos ago where we were running pretty

Hot NBA wise for about a week and a half um so it does suck though two big edges like that with clay and also Michael Porter Jr where you know they got a pretty significant bump a little bit unfortunate there that they missed but on in all really good day yesterday for

What’s worth the the jet stack that I recommended ended up crushing so you know good day yesterday as a whole but yeah looking at today like the magic we’re probably not getting any good bets for them and maybe a little bit bcho for under 7.5 rebounds I guess I could get

Behind that that’s not terrible and then Jaylen sucks actually don’t mind for over threes let’s actually take a deeper look at both of those so yeah looking at bang jro for uh under 7.5 rebounds let’s just take a deeper look at this so he is someone that on the season does average

6.8 so obviously already that number seems to be a little bit high and to me you you tack on the match up with the Knicks and I know they’re banged up Mitchell Robinson’s not there and whatnot but all in all I would still say that his rebounds probably do have a

Pretty good chance of being under 7.5 so to me I actually do like that Propet now the other one that we are getting that I think is decent is is actually jayen Suggs for over 1.5 three ball attempts just because he is someone that is typically not shy to shoot three balls

Now last game against Philly that game was a blowout he still played 28 minutes which is strange to me but one for two only shot the ball uh two times from three ball we can see other games 10 5 four nine so a little bit difficult to

Trust on a nightly basis and I don’t think we’re going to need to go there like we’re going to have other prop pets better prop pets that pop up throughout the day uh let’s go and get into the New York Knicks then and so here we’re not

Getting them many great Propet as well if you guys want to roll with the hot hand and Jaylen Brunson you could certainly do so he’s been someone that’s been playing extremely well recently uh the average line for his points rebounds and assists would be at 36.7 so some of

The sports books probably a couple of them are favoring the line at 37 and so it’s about a 53 or so perc likelihood for him to get over that not terrible uh to me this match up with the magic is kind of just one I’m okay to just loss

Over pass up on so let’s go ahead and move on into the next game that we are getting uh looking at we got the Nets vers Washington Washington is not favored to lose by that much only six points which is kind of crazy to me so maybe we’re looking at them um the

Brooklyn Net uh or sorry this game is about 242 for the over another uh the Brooklyn Nets we saw that we’re getting a good prop bet there with Nick claxon for over his points rebounds and assists and I’ll touch on that in a second he is currently a game time decision though so

Something to monitor there you also have Don sharp playing extremely well for the Brooklyn nuts as well so um do think it’s worth monitoring a DFS as well if he is out he is someone that has been playing some backup centerman so that could force classed into maybe you know

One or two more minutes in that game so let’s go ahead and start out with Brooklyn so yes the best prop bet that we are getting right now is actually going to be looking like Nick Clash for over 25.5 points rebounds and assists I think this is very much going to be

Because of the matchup with Washington we know Washington uh they’re they’re just a good match up for everyone but you’re really attacking bigs against them uh Nick Clon though minutes wise have not really been there if we knew that he for sure was going to give us 30

Minutes we’d be all for it but no he’s been playing 26 28 26 really the minutes are difficult to trust so does the matchup with Washington really outweigh the kind of risk that we have here and don’t get me wrong like he’s been kind of close to getting the over in a few

Games here but we need him to get 30 minutes and so all in all I don’t know I almost disagree with the data here and I kind of hate when that happens but all in all it’s probably one that I’m perfectly fine to stay away from also

The the Nets did some weird stuff in the last game look at someone like cam Thomas guys can Thomas was having himself a very good game last game you only played 12 minutes because the head coach wanted to get some Run for the backups and honestly it kind of worked

Out they were able to keep the game close enough for long enough against the bucks but cam Thomas you know was like four for nine but for most of the start of the game he was like four for six shooting the basketball so very weird

There um you know if he does get more minutes and honestly the Nets might be a stay away um I I think we’re going to expect Spencer deway to play a lot of minutes I think we’re going to expect cam Thomas Mel Bridges uh Cameron Johnson all those guys that typically

Would play a lot of minutes I think we are expecting them to play minutes but all in all given what happened last game it has left a sour taste in my mouth so I don’t know if we like I don’t know if I really want to go in on it now all in

All the cam Thomas one if he is going to be playing as normal minutes which is about 30 plus minutes ah I shouldn’t say it’s it definitely VAR but if we get closer to the 30 plus minutes then I would expect him to get multiple uh three ball attempts up closer to like

Six or seven so with that guys let’s just go ahead and move on into Washington seeing if we’re getting any good prop bets for them today and a little bit for tus Jones in this game tonight um I don’t know if we need to force it to specifically I know the game

Is projected to stay close I don’t mind that Gafford you could run outs now he played 30 minutes in the last game um barely missed his over of 21.5 points rebounds and assists in the last game and if you would have told me that he

Was going to get 30 minutes I i’ would have been like yeah we’re just we’re just betting him heavily um all in all he has been pretty productive points wise now the match with Brooklyn is not when I would necessarily say we’d want to attack but and I think this is a good

Example of it 22 minutes in the last game against Brooklyn three points yeah um there is some concern there and then five so yeah all in all I don’t I don’t think think we have that many good prop bets here so two games in maybe one good

Prop bet that we were getting so let’s go Ahad and move on into the next game here guys so looking at it we got uh the Rapters versus the Celtics about a eight-point spread so not the best there uh 225 for the over and under uh so low

Scoring game we do need to get news on Jaylen Brown and also Tatum okay both of them are currently questionable because of that I doubt we’re going to get any props like maybe those two but that’s about it now Tatum is someone that played last night and played in the OT

Game really went off okay uh definitely the reason why they won in that game he’s questionable it it it would make sense for him to sit back and back to back played heavy minutes in that game uh Jaylen Brown you know if he can be back we’ll see you know he’s currently

Questionable in this game it to me it would kind of make sense for him to play in this game it was the front end and back toback I think that’s why I said now it would make sense for Tatum to sit out on the back end of a back toback so

All in all that’s kind of my expectation but all in all we don’t know really truly what to expect for boss if both of them sit Derrik white would be someone that would just go off same thing with porzingis and then really Al Horford as well we have seen that when porzingis or

Tatum are out or off the court Al Horford really crushes and now last game he did get 37 minutes didn’t really do much which to me was very shocking and we know NBA nothing’s ever locked really prop nothing’s ever a lock but if he would have told me that he was going to

Get 30 plus minutes in that game I would have thought that he would have crushed averages like the over for his averages and then poor zingis really started the game out cold and actually his uh he had he had a late three uh that really hurt one of my bet slips that I

Um on a different site that was tilting but yeah he would have a good game as well again really tough to gauge what we’ want to do because those are two very high usage rate players if they are both out obviously porzingis obviously Al Horford obviously uh Derek white and

Drew holiday they all get a big okay but it’d be pure speculation uh right now to give you guys any takes on that and really I don’t think we’re going to get any toron Toronto Raptors props as well because well we need that Boston Celtics

News so again let’s go ahead and move on into the next game guys so looking at we got the Bucks versus C has six point spread 240 for the over and under so a very appealing game I would say yanis currently a game time decision I think

We’re expecting him to play for the Cavs uh Sam morl Donovan Mitchell game time decisions if they sit we’re looking at Craig Porter to have a good game uh the lines that we were getting though to me would suggest that they expect Donovan Mitchell to play because if he sits I

Would imagine this game has a very high likelihood of blowing out it’s already a pretty good spread because Evan Moy and Darius Garland are out now if you guys have been following the channel you know that we have been gting some pretty darn good lines on Jared Allen with Evan Mobi

Out and maybe that’s something we can go back to we’re just not getting those props sh up and really this match up with the buck is not one that I typically want to be targeting but yeah if Jared Allen does get 35 Plus minutes again uh there’s a good chance

Especially with Donovan Mitchell there’s a good chance that he’s undervalued today and so in terms of usage Jared Allen’s usage goes up about 3% with Garland Mitchell and Moy off the court that might not seem like much but it is for big he he gets to about like 19% uh

For usage rate with those three players off the court his per 36 production is 18 points 15 rebounds and 5.2 assists so really do CIS go up a decent amount there all in all we have seen the markets not correct to this just yet for him stepping up into a bigger role it’s

Been a a very good sweet spot both for me in DFS and props betting uh the last couple games again though this match up with Milwaukee is not the best I will say however if Giannis is ruled out I do think that that would present a very

Good uh spot for Jared Al all although we’re expecting yis to play it’s kind of a mute point uh with that being said we are getting prop bets for Donovan Mitchell again because if he is active his lines are not going to change if he is inactive everyone else’s lines would

Change Max stru would get a bump Max stru averages about 19 points per 36 with uh Mitchell Moy and Garland off the court and then Craig Porter Jr has been playing pretty well as well but all in all the only Cleveland Cavaliers player that I would want a piece of in general

Tonight is going to be uh Jared Allen but that’s assuming that they keep the game close enough for long enough looking at Milwaukee we are getting some decent props here I would say uh Beasley for under 3.5 rebounds we can see he projected to get three in this game he’s

Someone that I think we could be looking at for the under rebounds uh Lillard is okay again about a 53% chance to guys we want to be looking at Propet that have a 54% likelihood or better and I would say if the game was uh projected to stay

Close where we knew that Lillard was going to get closer to 37 minutes I’d feel better about that but the fact that the game has a chance to blow out is a little bit concerning there so yeah all in all the Bucks you know we’re really not getting that much there Beasley

Slightly Lillard slightly Giannis has been playing extremely well um with Moy off the court you would kind of expect him to have a good game as well again though let’s go and move on to next game we got the Kings versus the Hawks one point spread extremely high scoring game

About 251 252 another High game total one of the highest game totals ever uh so looking at it both teams are going to be healthy except for DeAndre Hunter being out we have seen Bay has been someone that has been playing well for the Hawks so looking at the Kings guys I

Will say that this is probably going to be a spot in which we do get some very good fantasy score props just in this High uh total game and so that’s something I’m going to be on the lookout for right now we really aren’t getting that many good props though uh all of

Them are you know pretty decent like 52% likely to hit but none of them are like yeah we need to go out of our way to Target them now I will say Keegan Murray has been someone that has been playing more minutes recently the issue with

Keegan Murray is that he’s been such a headache if this game is going to be this high scoring though I will say there is a good chance that he does get over his uh points rebounds and assists at 23.5 to me that’s a decent one to me

That’d be one that we could potentially Chase he is going to get up a lot of three ball attempts right we need him to literally do the three for seven thing that he has been doing um all in all I see that as a game stacking play there

Uh all in all again I do think we we kind of want to wait and see uh what fantasy score lines we’re getting like Kevin herder over nine points I don’t mind uh sabonis over 7.5 assists I don’t mind you know I kind of agree with the

Data there probably 52% chance to hit all and all you know we don’t want to be banking on props that have a 52% chance to hit for the Hawks a little bit better Jaylen Johnson uh 9.5 rebounds and assist we can see dejonte Murray 9.5 rebounds and assist let’s take a peek at

Both of those so yes Jaylen Johnson is back as well and he came in and instantly played 30 minutes and I think that’s that’s important to note because with DeAndre Hunter off the court uh Jaylen Johnson should continue to get a lot of run and if he’s getting 30 plus

Minutes in this game that’s supposed to be high scoring in this game that’s going to have a lot of shot attempts up to me I do think that there’s a great opportunity for him to get over 9.5 rebounds in assist now we’re mostly banking on the rebounds part there and

We’re banking on him getting 30 plus minutes but all in all that’s a proper that I don’t hate again maybe more of a game stacking opportunity there and then looking at dejonte Murray as well 9.5 rebounds and assist again if this game’s going to be that high scoring chances

Are he’s going to get some rebounds he’s going to get some assists like all and all again these are not the the best likelihood of Propet there but they do make sense there is some correlation there in a game stack so now jumping on into the Sixers versus the Rockets about

About a two-point spread 224 for the over and under looking at the injury report here Jabari Smith has been ruled out as well as Dylan Brook that might not seem like much but it is uh for uh the Sixers embiid is out Batum is out as

Well we kind of know what to expect there for the Sixers uh let’s go ahead and jump into both of these teams I think we are getting some decent lines and so starting out with the Sixers I will say you know I am perfectly fine going back to the well with the Anthony

Melton especially on Underdog there where it’s his line is at 23 for his points rebounds and assist you guys saw in the last game that his lines were too low uh Vegas kept really bumping those up and the reason why this felt like such a free square and I hate using that

Terminology but the reason why I felt like that was because with embiid off the court and with Batum off the court we knew that he was going to get those close out minutes get those 36 plus minutes I mean it was highly likely that that would happen and so to me I think

We can Bank on that again like it should happen we have seen that happen his per 36 production is 19.3 points 6.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists so he is there for his over points rebounds and assists just on points and rebounds or just on points and assists so all in all I

Really like the edges that we are potentially getting with Melton again today um again we’re it’s a bet on the minutes being there and we have seen this when Batum and when and beat off the court it is Melton closing out the game and that’s been the biggest

Difference between his minutes like when they were healthy and we see this game log here knocking over 30 minutes very difficult there right to be productive uh unlimited minutes and so is it more thin today is it less of a free Square yes I I don’t even want to say it’s a

Free Square today but all in all I still like his over today especially in a game that is a pretty appealing game especially in a spot where we probably do want to be game stacking now Maxi was a very big disappointment in the last game guys just didn’t shoot the

Basketball enough I think I had his over at like 28 or 29.5 points clearly that did not work out did not get the to the free throw line as much as we’d want um 9 for 18 didn’t exactly shoot the basketball well but do love the fact

That he is getting around 20 shot temps up if you look at his per 36 production does average 3 one points per 36 with embiid and Batum off the court I mean that’s massive right averages about 23 shot times per 36 with him off the court

So all in all I kind of am okay going back to Maxi today just kind of blindly trusting it if you will and for what it’s worth we take a Peak at the props that we’re getting for maxley 27.5 again like I’d be fine using that mostly in a

Game stack uh points rebounds and assists 38.5 to me that’s a little bit too high to really go in on a lot of his production is just in uh scoring with him beat off the court he actually gets a slight bump down in his assist averages 2.5 less assists per 36 within

Beat off the court it makes sense you know be getting the ball to him beads a few easy buckets a game and looking at Tobias Harris Tobias Harris was part of the reason as to why Maxi did not have a good game because Tobias Harris had an

Awesome game and so you look at Tobias Harris per 36 production with himbi and B off the court averages 20 points per 36 okay averages 7.5 rebounds per 36 and 3.2 assist and so really today I would say the lines that we’re getting on Tobias Harris are correct especially

When you look at the match up like kind of a difficult match up against Houston so all in all to me I don’t know if we need to be going in on Tobias sis and we can see as the game progress guys his you got a little bit worse as the game

Progress um still 23 shot attempts that’s a lot I’m actually curious only averages 16.3 shot attempts per 36 with embiid and Batum off the court so all in all him shooting the basketball that many times seems like an outlier but also you know if Max is not going to be

Shooting the basketball it’s going to be a by his Harr now Kelly UB is definitely interesting as well he was someone that I thought would have a good game he just had a terrible night shooting as well 1 for seven he’s not going to be someone

That gets a lot of minutes uh that game was also a blow up but if he’s not hitting his shots yeah it’s tough to really give him minutes and it’s tough for his overs to hit on all you know you got a shooter coming in off of a PO

Night shooting I don’t mind targeting him his per 36 production is 19 points per 36 with him beat him between him off the court we saw against Miami 40 minutes in that game and then 29 against Orlando again one game was a blowout one wasn’t I would expect to to get 36

Minutes in this game we’re not getting prop bets for uh U just yet though I do want to just mention the Rockets we’re not getting any prop bets for them guys but I do think the news that we got is pretty significant so for Houston again

Dylan Brooks is going to be out which already he’s a high minutes type player that’s about 3 to I say about 22 to like 36 minutes and then Jabari Smith being out is also very huge because he has been someone that has been playing heavy minutes and it’s really for the past

Like month it seems like t e has been something that has been questionable I’ve been saying you know what if he’s out Jabari Smith is going to have a great game well now it’s going to be the exact opposite in this one so with Brooks and Jabari Smith off the court

Tar een has the third most minutes on the team it actually goes Aaron holiday then Jen Tate and then tar e tar e however averages 14.8 points per 36 13.2 rebounds per 36 three uh assists per 36 so not too big of a bump there uh does

Average 2.5 Steals and one block per 36 again now the question question that you guys probably have is well will he get 36 minutes I’m going to say I don’t know I to say I don’t I would expect him to get 30 minutes or so again with jaari

Smith being out that is a lot of minutes and also with Dylan Brooks being out that is a lot of minutes and so I do expect him to at least get 30 minutes and so I do expect him to get around 12 to 13 points to get around eight rebound

And this is a decent match up with them beat off the court so all in all I do think we’re going to be looking at tar East and have a great game for what it’s worth guys his per 36 uh fantasy score is 44 fantasy points per 36 so

Definitely is somethingone that goes off J Tate is someone that I do think uh will get a bump in this game as well the question is how many more minutes will he get it’ll probably be around 24 he was someone that was at the start of the

Season um getting closer to 24 minutes and was being productive in that role much more of a uh lower ceiling type guy like he’s not going to get a massive bump like E’s going to but all in all if he gets 25 minutes could be someone we’re looking at and then kind of

Crazily the player that gets a big bump and this I think this is more with uh Dylan Brooks off the court is Jaylen green Jaylen green and this is a small sample size that’s not actually too bad it’s about 129 minutes 15% bump in his usage rates which is crazy with Dylan

Brooks and Jabari Smith off the court the question that we have with Jaylen green is how many minutes will he play again like um Dylan Brooks was out in the last game only played 26 minutes shot the ball 20 times had a good three ball percentage 6 for 12 but 8 for 20

Not the best there still had 23 points in that game um he is someone like per 36 does average 28 minutes but all in all man that is rough that is rough um Fred Van fle kind of been the consistent fantasy producer uh getting around 38 to

40 minutes uh all in all again I think the player that we want to go in the most is going to be tar e so with that let’s go ahead and jump into the last uh few games that we have uh Hornets versus the Suns very much blowout potential in

This game uh about a 16 points for at 230 is going to be the over and under looking at the injury report Bradley Beal game time decision that would only add I think to the blowout potential uh looking at the Hornets they’re going to be without Goran Hayward they’re going

To be without Lamela ball Mark Williams game time decision now this was the exact same scenario that they were in yesterday and Miles Bridges played 33 minutes they did get blown out in that game he did not get his over 21.5 points because it was a blow out uh so there is

That concern again with him you look at Terry roier he did not get his over points rebounds and assist again because it was a blowout he did not get his 36 minutes or so um all in all that’s kind of G me my expectation again for

Charlotte in this game as well uh to me the one player that I would want to go on the most would be PJ Washington but no his minutes have not been up and I would I would have thought that they would be with Gordon off the court so

All in all it just seems to be a stay away Brandon Miller only 28 minutes so yeah the Charlotte Hornet to me and it’s it’s crazy like I’m going through this and it seems like we just have a lot of stay ways and right now they’re not

Giving us any props I think that’s because of yesterday I think yesterday their lines were pretty off given the the expectation of the game and so all in all yeah we’re just not getting that many good prop bets for sh we’re not getting any prop bets for sh but all in

I think that’s why because they don’t want to put out some bad line on the flip side that we can take a peek at Phoenix my initial thought was youf n for like over rebounds but they kind of put that up at 11.5 to the point where

The data actually likes the under there and so again this is kind of a spot where I don’t know if we exactly need to go in on it we are seeing Kevin Durant rebounds and assist at 13.5 has a 53.5 2% chance to hit again this board has

Been a little bit tighter than I would typically like um for Flex Friday actually that has been the case past month with the flex Friday board super weird uh but anyways I don’t know if I like this one like we can see went off against Houston Dallas has been doing

Pretty well prior to that though and I think with Bradley beback that could be another part of it where maybe he’s not getting as many rebounds maybe he’s not getting as many assists Yousef nerk is going to be back in this game as well so all in all like the game blowing out

Maybe only gets 33 minutes in this game um I would say that’s what you’re banking on if you’re betting the under here we can see Underdog is already bumped it down to 13 all right so we got the Thunder versus the Nuggets about a three-point spread 236 is going to be

The over and under looking at it uh the Thunder are going to be good to go Denver Nuggets they’re going to be without Aaron Goran again and so really I think we can all admit that the Michael Porter J Junior prop was seemingly a good one that just didn’t

Work out right the the books really kept bumping his props throughout the day he just didn’t need to shoot the basketball that much and so personally I’m actually okay going back to the well with him we can see three-pointers uh about a 53% chance for that one to hit 2.5 for the

Over there uh points rebounds and assist at 25.5 again I’m kind of okay with that really the Hope here is that the game does stay closed and to me we’re not expecting like Payton Watson to get 14 shot attempts up again and 10 three balls up again he he’s someone that

Started out pretty hot you the basketball and then fizzled off and then by the time and like joic was 11 for 11 other players were just shooting the basketball well so we didn’t see the normal shot attempts that we would see from Michael Porter Jr literally two for

Three it’s not like he shot the ball terribly he just did not have a role in a game that blew out really quickly and so tonight I feel like this is a jumping on opportunity like in DFS I’ll probably be playing a lot of him props betting obviously it’s a little bit different

Where the pricing doesn’t matter the field not being on him as much doesn’t matter but let’s just go over the data again so with Aaron Gordon off the chord Michael por Jr per 36 averages 20 points per 36 again that last game didn’t need to get minut 13 less minutes than you

Would have expected from him or at least 10 less minutes than you would expected from him because that game was a blowup and I’m not going to say that he does get his overs there but it was very unfortunate that John Morant got rolled out for Michael Porter Jr because then

The game definitely had more blowout risk that did hurt Michael Porter Jr in retrospect I don’t think that’s very difficult to see so I can talk myself into this and I have talked myself into this you look at his shot attempts with Aaron off the court averages 15.2 field goal attempts averages 7.7

Three ball attempts per 36 with him off the court okay so all in all 20 points per 36 9.9 rebounds uh 2.5 assists and so really I kind of like all the lines that we’re getting here probably like points the most again just expecting him

To get more shot atempts up I could run out points rebounds and assists as well I think that that’s a pretty good line that we are getting as well and guys just real quickly like don’t get me wrong with Peyton Watson like I don’t want to like downplay what he did he

Does get the most minutes actually with Aaron Gordon off the court on the team but he only averages uh 10.5 shot attempts okay and only 3.5 three ball time so like this was clearly an outlier game and heck he only played 23 minutes so like definitely an outlier there we

Go and jump into OKC here uh we’re going to see that sgaa rebounds 5.5 53% chance that that’s okay really all the lines that we’re getting for OKC currently are pretty good you know with jayen Williams with Josh giddy being active and healthy

Uh tough to get on to any of them uh do want caught that like Dort has been someone fantasy score-wise has been popping up a decent amount this season that’s something to be on the lookout for once we get those props now two more games here so Portland versus the Spurs

Uh yesterday was pretty nice I took a risk with some props with Malcolm brogen and also Jeremy Grant that ended up paying out or working out because Simons was ruled out and so the question that I have is is he going to be healthy in this game like what’s going to happen

Really the the Trailblazers roster yesterday was strange so Aiden was out sharp was out we knew that that was expected their game time decisions today got to see if they’re going to play or not wreath was someone that was expected to get some heavy mins maybe not

Expected to start for them but he was a DMP in that game and so they really only had one Center that they’re running out and then Simons was ruled out about 30 minutes before game time and so I would say there’s no way that we’re getting

Portland props yeah we’re not we need to get the the injury news but to me this could be one of those spots where it is a massive Edge spot again for props betting I mean these two teams just met we got to get the news on Simons you

Know he was held out on the front back toback you it was tough to say he’s going to play or not but because of that Malcolm Bren had himself a great game and guys he started out terrible I was so down on myself for the first quarter

Of that game Portland was getting blown out I’m like gosh darn it uh and then yeah he ended up going off uh obviously had a very good day shooting uh from three ball uh 6 for eight 10 for 19 total 29 Points very good game uh you know his production really isn’t

Shocking especially if we get sharpen eight and out again I do still expect him to play 30 minutes I do still expect him to get a lot of shot TS up but yeah he gets a massive bump with Simons off the court and so it’s risk reward if we

Get some prop bets for Malcolm Bren and we haven’t got news on Simons just know that if Simons is active it’s going to hurt broon brogon or if Simons is out it’s really going to boost brogon a lot and all in all this is a pretty good

Match up all in all you don’t expect Portland to be down by I think it was like 26 or so at by the end of the first quarter like you don’t expect him to go that cold Jeremy Grant was part of the reason why they were able to come back 9

For 21 one for five from three uh really got to go in free throw wise 29 Points 10 rebounds five assists you know he had himself a very good game as well and so again that’s not really shocking with those players being out and then scoot Henderson is another player that gets a

Pretty massive bump if Simons if sharp and if Aiden are off the courts he’s going to get 36 minutes or so he is someone that dig into foul trouble I do want to point that out uh got four fouls I think in the first half still played 36 minutes had six turnovers though

Obviously concerning there shot the basketball pretty well I shouldn’t say pretty well but a lot and ended up with 25 points so we like that aspect of it kind of lower on the rebounds and assists that you would think with uh Simons off the court does get a pretty

Big usage bump with Simons off the court so that was a little bit shocking that you only had four assists so again just be on the lookout for it guys because if we get news that all those same players that were out last game are out again

We’re going to get some pretty big edges for Portland and we should be getting Spurs props I’m kind of surprised that we’re not again it probably is because of Portland like maybe potential blowout and whatnot we should be I am very confused as to why we’re not for what’s

Worth wimy could sit out uh on the back in the back back to back I kind of think that that was the expectation but he only played 24 minutes he’s only been playing short minutes and so maybe he doesn’t sit out on the back end of a

Back to back and so that that’s another question like that’s not going to be in the injur report or not but if he does sit on the back and back toback obviously Zach Collins gets a big bump we have seen the games where he gets 30

Plus minutes and he just goes off I mean this is the sample size right here guys Dallas Chicago Milwaukee just dominated right so if we get news that WBY is out just come here and look at these props that or the lines that we had for Zack

Collins when he got 30 or so minutes and just kind of gauge what you’d want to do there Kendall Johnson has moved to the bench which is kind of weird a weird move and I wonder if he would move to the starting lineup if WBY is out and

Then I also wonder if he would get like 35 or 36 minutes if that happens like to me he is a big question mark the only way I could really truly want to be on him is if he’s going to be uh starting again and with that vassel uh soan I

Don’t want to touch those guys even if W is out and so we go and get into the last game on the Slate Memphis versus the Clippers 7 and a half point spread 225 for the over and under so you know with the back end of a back toback I

Kind of expect job Morant to be active in this game I do think it’s not worthy to say that Luke Canard game time decision Derrick Rose game time decision that could be big you know they could finally be healthyish you know looking at the Clippers Kawhi Leonard game time

Decision which continues the annoyance of today guys because yeah we’re not we’re not getting any props for that game because of really we need to get news on morance we need to get news on Kawai again obviously if those players sit um let’s just talk through it again

Annoying day an annoying day it really is uh but yeah so if kawhai sits we know he’s been some of that swing G around 36 minutes we we know what to expect like it’s going to be uh Paul George getting heavy minutes as he typically would but

Just a lot more shot times going up for him uh I think we could expect him to go around 25 or so points the the concern would be that this game could still blow out and then James Harden gets a massive bump in usage he’s been playing extremely well recently maybe his assist

Takes a little bit of a bump probably gets a few more rebounds though a few more shots himself up like I would expect him to get 20 plus points in this game uh zubac would be someone I think would benefit as well you know gain 30

Minutes or so uh so if Ka is out obviously we like that and then for what’s worth guys looking at Memphis if John Morant is out uh the question is can they keep it close enough for long enough um Marcus Smart played really well but only played 23 minutes in his

Game back from injury again Derrick Rose could be back Desmond Bay had a really good game in 25 minutes 23 points again game was a blowout though only 25 minutes in that game like the whole fourth quarter the starter sat I needed I needed B to get one more shot I needed

Him to get to 25 points for a different another prop and then jiren joson as well I needed a slight more amount of production out of him as well but all in all we know what happens when jaw’s off the court and I think we kind of know

What happens when jaw’s on the court it really becomes when jaw’s on the court Desmond Bane John Morant Jaz off the court a little bit of jiren jaon a little bit of Marcus Smart but mostly Desmond Bane and then just real quickly we are getting some good college

Bassball props as well right now guys um this one’s interesting right here for Bernett underdog had it originally at 17.8 which they bumped up to 18.5 which I find strange because we can see the percent likelihood for this Propet to hit is actually 54% likelihood for the

Under to hit the projection data also is saying that so very strange that it was Underdog to bump up their line and not prize picks to bump it down I don’t I don’t know what to do with that that’s very strange this was going to be one

That I included on my Flex Friday slip and I still think I will but it’s weird you are seeing though that we are getting two pretty good fantasy score prop bets right now we got wear for over fantasy score the projection data really likes wear that’s kind of crazy to me

But the average Sports Line would have it set about 39 for a fantasy score and still favoring the over there and so at 35.5 that is a very good Edge I think the concern everyone is going to have is uh looking at the game log it’s been

Pretty ugly right very ugly uh only one game where he’s gotone the over now if you were to pull up their game log or his game log here we going see this game was a blowout only 20 minutes in that game other games 31 38 and this game

Does have the potential to be a blowout I want to call that out and so all it’s it’s just strange that it’s that big of a difference right uh but all in all I’m perfectly fine by then over and then we got McDaniel for our under fantasy score

Uh very interesting here we are getting some Underdog lines as well a much better bet than Underdog and it’s again college basketball is super strange guys the amount of discrepancies that we get um where it just really doesn’t make sense it’s always interesting and I get college football college basketball

There are more difficult uh to predict and to really give lines on so we do see a lot more discrepancy uh but this is fascinating so the average Sports Line would have it set at 27 okay the projection data would like him at about 24.5 Underdog has set at 29.8 five like

That is a much better bet to bet the under there than it is to bet the under on priz pick for priz pick purposes we are looking for a flex Friday slip however and so I’m perfectly fine using that but if this were any other day maybe besides Soo Tuesday um I would

Just be saying we’re betting that but we’re betting that on underd and then I did did just hit a refresh as well guys um just to see if we’re getting more PJ Hall under fantasy scores is good one we can see that’s much tighter than the other two and then we’re getting under

Assist here for this one’s basically being favored as a push know getting a little bit better ones we are seeing that that Bernett one and makes more sense now not as big of an edge there so you know no need to use that and then real quickly let’s get back into NBA uh

That’s where we’re getting the best edges right now guys is college basketball in NBA no need to touch on NHL there’s some okay ones out there but right now uh RJ Barrett under fantasy score is seemingly a good one we know with arj Barett very much shot dependent

If he’s going to get this over he’s just going to be shooting the basketball well given the match up with Orlando I could get behind Orlando is a pretty good defense uh Keegan Murray was one that I mentioned I I liked um for the over that

The odds of that has actually shot up uh Underdog it’s a much better bet there on Underdog and really guys it seems like we are getting some better edges on Underdog right now I already mentioned the college basketball prop mention like this Jaylen Johnson one at 23 that’s a

Pretty big Edge there um it might not seem like much but a half is is pretty big that adds up Nick claxon as well that is still popping up I don’t know how I feel about that all in all I’m kind we’re kind of just forced into

Betting that or at least I am right now at at this point in the day given the lines that we have out all right so jumping into my favorite bets for today uh it is an interesting day so you know I’m fine right now those college basketball prop ones those are fine like

We’re getting some pretty big projected edges on those even though it’s kind of strange this line actually dropped which a little bit concerning all in all though I’m I’m kind of fine trusting it RJ Barrett Lon fantasy score again very much shot dependent there Nick Clon does

Worry me the over 25.5 points rebounds and assist but does get that very good match up against Washington the the biggest concern I have is that he’s probably only going to get 28 minutes that is a concern to me Kei Murray I do feel good about a little bit shot

Dependent as well but in a very high game total we do want some exposure to that and that’s why I’m okay running out Jaylen Johnson as well a very high game total I do expect those two ke Murray probably get 36 minutes Jaylen Johnson hoping for closer to like let’s just say

25 to 30 minutes um and if they get those I feel pretty good about that I know it’s weird like not the it’s the flex Friday slates have been very tight at least when I’m putting out the video uh for Flex Friday I’m sure if I did it

At in the afternoon it’d be much easier to give you guys that content and it’s just kind of the nature of the Beast uh and for what it’s worth and I I hate calling out but it is useful guys like uh be on the 95 cheat sheet is available

For $10 a month uh before you place your F Friday s it’s just worth looking at um access to that at95 sports.com again it’s going to give you access to the prize Bas $100 cheat sheet for just $10 a month thank you guys for watching uh give a like And subscribe hit that

Notification appreciate you guys being here let’s have a good s today and as always let’s keep cashing