10 Players With Questions! Encarnacion-Strand, Blake Snell & More! | Fantasy Baseball Advice

Frank Stampfl and Chris Towers break down 10 players we have questions about entering the 2024 season!

0:00- Intro
1:33- Chris Towers full time baseball
3:20- JT Realmuto
8:05- Christian Encarnacion-Strand
14:45- Ha-seong Kim
20:22- News: Woo-Suk Go to SD
23:36- Jake Burger
27:35- CJ Abrams
34:35- Nolan Jones
40:36- Tyler Glasnow
47:15- Tarik Skubal
53:45- Blake Snell
57:55- Hunter Greene

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Hey there welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday January 4th I am Frank stanel and today is a very special day because not only is Chris Towers back but now he has hair welcome back Chris happy New Year Bud yeah new year new Chris new new hair I you know I I

Started shaving my head like early on in the pandemic just because that I saw some pictures and I was like oh that’s that’s going to be a problem at some point and I wanted to see what I would look like with a shaved head and it’s

The kind of thing where once you start doing it you kind of just got to keep doing it or else you got to commit to Growing your hair back and that’s what I’m doing and I think it looks okay for for the people watching it’s it looks

Fine I don’t know yeah I don’t I don’t have much recollection of you with hair I feel like as soon as I joined this podcast absolutely yeah you went full like Stone Cold and just shaved your head and that’s kind of the only Towers I know but yeah looks you you might have

Met me one time in person with hair and then that’s it yeah pretty much anyway today on the show we are breaking down 10 players that we have questions about we’re in the process of doing our rankings positional ranks overall top 300 all that kind of fun stuff but we’re

Still kind of early on so we’re diving in and these are the players that I mean really Chris has the most questions about but as I’ve already seen the list they are a very interesting group of players so that is the main focus on today’s show but before we get into the

Players Chris I know that you have a pretty big announcement if people follow you on social media they already know what it is but for the listening audience you can reveal it now yeah I always feel bad when that point comes in like July August where I kind of have to

Just like disappear from the baseball side and go cover football I’m the only person left on our staff I think who really covers both Sports full-time and know Frank you you do some football stuff um but that’s that’s no longer the case because in 2024 I will be focusing

On baseball fulltime so I’m very excited to uh you know kind of I’m I’m doing the fantasy football newsletter this week as we’re speaking and then that’s it as far as I’m aware I’m baseball only for the rest of the the time so I’m looking forward to it I’m really excited to you

Know be able to to continue to pod with you and Scott and you know I have a great time here I love our audience and to be able to give it my full full undivided attention for forever hopefully very much looking forward to it and I think that there’s only one

Appropriate reaction obviously oh my good goodness gracious that’s how you’re g go with a different with a different drop D is it let’s see uh of all the dramatic things not that one uh do I have I only have a few over here I don’t know which one you’re looking for

Shallow Oh gosh yeah I don’t have that one loaded up but it would have been a great one we’re happy to have you full-time baseball all year round should be lots of fun and believe me I understand the um the work that goes into covering both Sports so uh

Hopefully this is easier for you and uh easier for everybody um the consuming audience and all that fun stuff let’s get into the 10 players that Chris has questions about and we are going to start at catcher I don’t know why people always start a catcher but we’re gonna

Start a catcher and then we’re just gonna kind of work our way down JT real Muto who this past season had a fine season he hit 252 he had 20 home runs 70 runs scored 16 steals uh no longer a standout at the position in terms of playing time his 540 plate appearances

Were seventh most at the position he’s getting up there in age he turns 33 years old in March which for a catcher I mean that that could be a pretty scary time Chris what are some of the biggest questions that you have regarding JT real Muto well I I just think it’s it’s

Mostly interesting that he had another JT ra Muto season right like and it’s not like you know obviously the counting stats weren’t great only 70 runs 63 RBI but now he’s all of a sudden you know three rounds behind adley Rutman or two rounds behind adley Rutman in NFC

ADP 71 versus 50 but you know four or five rounds Beyond where we’ve seen him go and so I guess the question is not so much one do we expect another step back from JT Ro Muto after you know what was kind of a career year in a lot of ways

In 2022 or at least you know comparable to his career best seasons took a step back in 2023 is does his price reflect one the expectation that at 33 he’s going to take another step back or and I think this might be the answer do we just feel

A little better about some of the other options at catcher in a way that makes you know reaching on realmuto and the you know the outof position stolen base production that we get from him and all that does that make that a little less relevant I think it’s probably a

Combination of both things again turning 33 years old in March it’s kind of a scary time for a catcher with that being said I mean the Sprint speed was still Elite and he still had 16 steals so frankly given how fast he was I’m surprised he didn’t steal more than 16

Bases based on just like the new rules environment um but catcher does feel pretty good maybe famous last words but like the top of the position obviously there’s Rutman William conteras Will Smith I mean that Dodger lineup with those counting stats it’s going to be awesome Yer Diaz but then it goes pretty

Deep too like as we get further down Shawn Murphy uh Wilson contas Gabriel Moreno Jonah Heim Bo Naylor Logan o hoppy CT Ruiz there’s a lot of really good names so maybe not as much of an emphasis to push real Muto up the board as you mentioned just some other quick

Things I noticed about just his profile strikeout rate was a career high 25.6% the flyball rate uh also career-high 42% so I think that led to maybe a lower bip lower batting average overall for him um and oddly enough really really bad at home hit 176 198

Excuse me with a 576 Ops at home that was much better in 2022 so like there are some I guess kind of bad signs I think he could regress the other way and get better at home um overall I’m not really worried like if this is his ADP I

I could see drafting him at that point in like a two catcher League yeah and that’s that’s what I’m saying you know I think the way we you know set this up it might be like players we’re scared of but that’s not really it’s mostly just players that I

Think are really interesting as I’m going through the rankings process and and guys that you know I’m sure you and Scott have talked a ton about a bunch of the guys that we’re going to talk about throughout the off season so this is mostly you know as I’m getting back to

The process of putting together rankings and kind of catching myself back up you know these were guys that stood out and I I think Ry mut’s price like obviously the strikeout rate jumping back up to 25 .6% like you said a career high although right in line with 2020 2021 when he was

24.6 24% the quality of contact data was actually close to the best that he’s had in his career you know the expected woan contact 421 is actually the second best that we’ve seen from him and when you start diving into like some of the the gr granular PL discipline stuff you know

His his Zone contact rate his in zone swing rate his Chase rate all that stuff more or less looks like it has in the past so I’m not sure the strikeout rate is necessarily indicative of like a declining skill set um as much as it was maybe what he did in 2022 wasn’t

Sustainable but I I will say I think at his price I think drafting him is pretty reasonable so that ADP since December 1st for JT real Muto over at the nfbc 73.1 as the second catcher off the board going just ahead of William contras and Will Smith let’s move on to the first

Baseman you have on this list and that is Christian and carosio and strand who just turned 24 years old had a massive season in the miners and then got called up and actually looked pretty good with the Reds as well so in 63 games hit 270

With 13 home runs I know he finished really strong his final 24 games he hit 333 nine of those 13 home runs and Ops over a thousand during that time if you combine his major and minor league season 33 home runs so there is legit

Power here hits a lot of line drives I think there’s upside for batting average obviously it’s a great ballpark as well the problem which is what we’ve talked about a lot this offseason already is this Log Jam of playing time with the Cincinnati Reds because for some reason

They went out and signed jamer candelario and that’s not a knock on candelario I think he’s a fine player it just felt like something the Reds really did not need at all so they have candelario they have Matt CL and Ellie De La Cruz who are going to play up the

Middle in the infield they still have no Eli Marte who was a really regarded Prospect uh Rosell resource has candelario at first base they moved Spencer steer to the Outfield right now Jonathan India is penil in at DH I think there’s a good chance that he can get

Traded but the way things are currently constituted there is a log Jam here and I think one of or multiple of CES and nov Marte and Spencer Seer are probably going to lose some playing time yeah and it it’s you know carosio strand hasn’t really played much

In the Outfield you a couple dozen Innings between the majors and the minors so I don’t know how realistic that would be for him yeah there’s just a lot of moving pieces here and there was the quote from the the Reds GM where it was basically we don’t expect to make

Any more moves this offseason which is stunning given the the number of guys that they have in their lineup you know like it would be one thing if if CS could play right field you know then it would be a little easier to get his Bat

In the lineup but you know as things stand he’s like a 10th round pick in NFC ADP and he’s gone as early as the I guess it would be the fifth round in uh you know that’s a a 15 Team league so it’s actually well like an eighth round pick

At 130th overall in a 15 team format 10 10th round in a 12 team format and I just I have some concerns about that kind of investment in an All or Nothing kind of power hitter who may not play every day you know and it’s the kind of thing where playing time

Concerns tend to figure themselves out right like if Christian aroson is a is an 850 Ops bat and hits 30 home runs yeah it might be frustrating when in the first three weeks of the Season he gets five days off by June that’ll probably

Not be an issue one way or the other if it’s he’s just too good to take out of lineup if it’s just someone gets hurt life finds a way and so it’s less that concern and more the concern that if he gets off to a slow start uh demotion is well within the

Realm of possibility even for you know a guy that we all really like and think he’s talented and the Red’s really like that’s the concern when you’re talking about a situation with with this much uncertainty about playing time is it’s not necessarily is he gonna play four

Days a week the whole season because that’s unlikely most teams don’t do that it’s can things go wrong to the point where he just outright gets sent down I think that’s the downside that’s well within play and makes it sort of tough to invest in him with a 10th round pick

When like he’s going 10 spots after Spencer Tolson who has no concerns with regards to that and and has arguably already had the season that you’re hoping uh you know Christian and carosio strand can have yeah I think and Carion strand is one of these vast range of outcomes type players where if

Everything works out like you mentioned if he’s hitting he’s going to stay in the lineup it’s an upand cominging lineup it’s a great ballpark to hit in obviously that you don’t have to you know squint too hard to see like a 270 30 plus home run season which you know

That’s arguably like a Austin Riley type season right but there is that downside where if he does get off to that slow start as you mentioned he could wind up back in the minors or lose some playing time so I I think you kind of got have

To decide um based on your roster construction if you have enough safety can you be willing to take that risk but maybe you don’t have to because there are other names going in that range Josh Naylor and yanaz going basically in the same spot uh you know like five to 10

Picks higher than in carosan Shan you have Vinnie Pas Bonino who was everyone’s darling breakout last year he’s going 35 picks after en carosio strand you have his new teammate jamer candelario who’s going around pick 220 I think is going to be really goodar they just paid him three years $45 million

He’s he’s the one that I I don’t worry about I think to play you talk about like I know there are reasons to be skeptical of what ESO pedes did last year but that’s another guy who had the season we’re hoping Christian and carosio strand can have he’s what a year

Older uh doesn’t play in as good of a ballpark probably not as good of a lineup if everything goes right for the Reds but you know if Christian andos own strand at the end of 2024 has 31 homers 98 RBI and hits 250 we’re probably pretty happy with that and that’s what

Isak parus just did and that that’s one where there is value in going beyond the surface level numbers when it comes to um the stat cast stuff because Zak parus is never going to look good by the statcast data because he’s just a a pull ball Merchant uh on the

Fly on the flyball side and so you know if anything changes there he’s got a very narrow uh margin for error in a way that Christian and cares know strand probably has more raw power but yeah that’s one that you know he’s going you know 40 or 50 picks later than en

Carosan Strand and so that’s where like paying up for anonos on strand just doesn’t feel super great for me yeah and to be very clear I do think en koson stran is a is a really talented player but you have to kind of weigh the the opportunity cost of where he’s going in

The top 10 or top 12 rounds um and to go along with that downside in terms of the uh playing time risk let’s move on to uh second base Hung Kim who actually has second third and shortstop eligibility on CBS just had a huge season finished

As the fifth best second baseman in Roto the eighth best second baseman in head-to-head points leagues hit 260 17 home runs 30 38 Steals and this is closer to the player that he was in kbo where we saw a little bit more power uh and frankly I don’t know that anyone

Would have projected like 38 steals even in the best outcome for H but it seems like the Padres kind of had that green light and he was uh obviously part of that but there are questions he doesn’t hit the ball very hard at all uh does he

Project more for like 10 to 12 home runs rather than like close to 20 home runs uh big splits issues with him too that I noticed uh what what other questions or anything else that I’ve mentioned uh has you worried or not worried technically but just things that are on your mind

Regarding H him it it’s kind of the whole package right because like you said the the 38 stolen bases I mean that it’s not fair to say it came out of nowhere because he’s a pretty athletic dude but like he’s 79th percentile in Sprint speed we’re not we’re not talking about

You know Trey Turner who actually stole significantly fewer bases um so I have concerns about whether the 38 stolen bases are going to come back you know are the podres going to is the Padres offense going to necessitate them him running that much that’s a question

With with juodo gone and for me I think the the other thing would just be the power I I don’t really buy the gains that he made as a power hitter it was a lot of damage against left-handed pitchers like you said it was I think

Nine 10 of his 17 nine of his sorry eight of his 17 home runs came against left-handed hitters obviously in a much smaller sample size than against righties the power on the statcast side doesn’t really back up what he did so yeah I think I have questions about

Pretty much every part of the uh profile for hos young Kim in a way that just I don’t know if it’s worth you know a top 100 top 90 pick from from from a guy with you know this limited of a track record of being good for Fantasy it is

Pretty a pretty rich price tag for Hung Kim ADP since December 1st 81.3 he’s going uh he’s kind of like on an island I guess in terms of second base ADP because he’s going 20 picks after Matt mlan but he’s going 10 picks ahead of glaber Torres so he’s kind of

Just in an area by himself and I I get that if you trust the skill set if you think if you’re projecting even like a 1530 season out of him then he’s probably worth a top 100 pick but as you mentioned that power takes a little bit

Of a step back then I think obviously uh we we do have questions on the overall skill set and like one thing I was going to mention on the power real quick was 15 of his 17 home runs did come from the pull side so is he kind of doing like

His best ESO paradus impression when he’s you know trying to tap into Power I think that’s possible but I would be more likely to project uh like 12 or 13 home runs rather than the uh 17 he just hit well and you know I look at a guy who’s going what’s that

Sorry about 25 picks behind Hassan Kim and that’s Bryson stot yeah who I have questions about in him as well but 15 homers 31 steals 280 batting average last season H and Kim had a little bit more of both you know two more homers eight more stolen bases but I don’t

Necessarily know if that’s enough to just ify that kind of Gap when you you know look at the under the hood numbers and see that you know it’s not necessarily a guarantee that hang Kim can do that again so that is one where you know I question the

Price in a way that makes me think that I’m probably just not going to draft him and I typically lean that way as well um just in terms of it is pretty rich on hung cam we talked about ADP risers and fallers and I believe he was one of the

Fallers yeah he’s dropped a little bit cuz if you look at his overall ADP it’s like 80ish so he he’s dropped a couple spots he was going a little higher earlier yeah it’s it’s not much actually I just pulled it up uh in October and November it was 81.6 for Hung Kim and

Now it’s uh it was 83 in December so okay so a couple spots yeah nothing too drastic there uh but it’s still pretty pretty big price tag for him before we hit our break just a reminder that fbt is a finalist for the best baseball podcast in the sports podcast Awards

Thanks to all of our listeners we actually won the award last year and now we’re looking to go back to back so you can help us bring home the hardware by uh clicking on the link in the podcast and the YouTube descriptions or scan the

QR code on the top right corner of the screen the whole process should take you less than a minute and we really do appreciate it thank you for your continued support let’s bring home the gold we are going to take a break and when we return some uh quick news and

Notes and then some more players that we have questions about here on fantasy baseball today Sunday on the NFL season finale playoff Fates will be decided who’s in who’s Out we can’t wait for the answers the NFL is on CDs and streaming on Paramount plus welcome back in news and notes not too much going on but on yesterday’s podcast I discussed a report that Robert Suarez is likely to start the season as the Padre’s closer and then John Heyman

Reported that the team is nearing a deal with Korean reliever wo suck go and that he is likely to be the Padre’s closer uh wo suck go is 25 years old and has recorded 139 career saves in the kbo to go along with a 318 ER and a 127 whip

Does get a lot of whiffs but also struggles a bit with control four and a half walks per nine uh this past season in the kbo my guess Chris is that W Su go can factor into the back end of the Padre’s Bullpen but the fact that they

Have now added two relievers to go along with Robert Suarez I don’t know that there’s going to just be a closer it kind of feels like it’s going to be a committee maybe they play matchups they also signed Yuki Matsui who’s a lefty so I think they could F he could factor in

As well kind of feels like it’s gonna be pretty messy yeah that’s not a situation where I would expect a an obvious closer at least you know projecting out from January we might get to spring training and they lean in one specific Direction but this is if you’re drafting right now

If you’re drafting in the in early February it’s a hey throw a late round dart at Suarez or matui or go and just see you know it’s not a situation where I would feel confident projecting any of them to be a closer especially do any of those guys

Necessarily profile as a guy that you can feel confident will remain a closer the rest of the season that’s also part of it is you know the the bullpen is not the strength of the Padre’s organization right now all right Mets Prospect Ronnie Mauricio is expected to be sidelined six

To eight months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL and originally I just assumed he would miss the entire season but now it seems like there’s a chance that Ronnie Mauricio is back in the second half so he is a name that will watch and will Monitor and you know

If he’s around for August or September he’s someone that could factor in uh just providing some power and speed yeah no I I I have some questions you know he he’s someone that like towards the middle part of the summer there was a lot of why haven’t the Mets

Called this guy up yet and I always worry about that type of player and then the you know when you read the scouting reports on him it’s a situation where the the numbers seem a lot better than the scouting reports suggest you know the there’s a lot of skepticism about

Ronnie Mauricio in The Scouting Community about you know whether he’s got the hit tool in particular to make the power play up or if he’s kind of had to sell out for power throughout his Prospect career in a way that makes it unlikely to work at the major league

Level but yeah if he’s ready by August you know the Mets seem like they’ll be in a situation where he’s likely to get an opportunity all right everything else pretty quiet as of now we’re still waiting on Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger I believe both of them are

Have Scott Boris as their agent so we’re probably going to be waiting quite a bit uh but let’s continue on the other players that we have questions about and we are on to third base and which brings us to Jake Burger who this past season

Had a breakout year hit 250 34 home runs 80 RB uh the expected numbers actually were really good 268 expected ba uh 506 X slug he hits the ball extremely hard Barrel rate was sixth best in baseball his max EV also o ranked sixth best in

All baseball but he kind of changed his profile he didn’t kind of he completely changed his profile once he went to the marins where in 53 games with them he hit 303 nine homers lowered his strikeout rate from 32% with the White Sox down to 22% with the Marlin so I

Think trying to project which Burger we’re gonna get you know is it a Big Mac is uh that sorry that was a stupid joke um trying to figure out which version of him going to get I think it’s tough but Chris I do feel that either way we are

Going to get a productive player yeah it seems like a fairly it’s hard to call anyone with a you know career 29% strikeout rate a high floor player because that’s a high variance approach and especially because he doesn’t walk much plays in a bad Park plays in a bad lineup there there’s a

Lot going against him so the the biggest question for me is just how much of that Improvement in strikeout rate we can actually project moving forward because if he’s going to be a legitimate maybe not 22% strikeout rate like he was after the trade but if it’s more like 24 25% without sacrificing

Much power which is what we saw from him you know in the second half after the trade of the Marlins that’s a really interesting player because that that’s where you start to talk about okay I can get 25 to 30 home runs from this guy and I can

Potentially get a useful batting average whereas you know otherwise I think we’ probably be be projecting him for like a 24ish batting average moving forward and that’s relatively easy to find or at least relatively easy to replace at a relatively cheap cost so he’s someone

He’s our uh third baseman 15 in AFC ADP or NFC ADP right now sorry I got confused which conference it was but like you know he’s just ahead of Max Muny in the overall ADP rankings I don’t know if it’s changed since December 1st but you know that’s one

Where like if that B that strikeout rate and that batting average can be a little more projectable you know if you could project him for a 270 batting average rather than 24ish he starts to look like a really good value there yeah I like everything about the player again even if the

Strikeout gains don’t remain that power is absolutely legit and it’s backed up by all of the stat casts that we have right so you know again even if the out rates go back up we’re talking whatever he gets 240 but he gives you you know 35

Home runs I I think that’s fine too it’s also worth mentioning he was awesome in Lone Depot Park in Miami which normally you it’s not a good place to hit he hit 385 with four homers and a 1033 Ops there in 25 games so I like it I like

The cost since December 1st it’s 161.5 for Jake burger and he kind of represents the start of a new tier at the position because if you look the way it breaks down Josh Young and Spencer steer they go around picks 105 110 then there is not another Third Base eligible

Player drafted for the next 50 plus picks down to 161 where we see uh Jake Berger and then he’s going just ahead of Alec bow Noel V Marte who I think is interesting in his own right but has some of those same concerns as nard Trend Max mty going a little bit lower

Muny I think a little bit more proven in terms of the power he’s done it for longer but his batting average floor is terrible I mean we’re talking like a a sub 200 hitter for Max Mony so I like it overall I like the cost on Jake Jake

Burger all right let’s move on to uh CJ Abrams who we have talked a lot about already this offseason and I think we’re going to continue to talk about because he is just a f fascinating player very very polarizing right now and especially at the cost too so uh CJ Abrams he did

Kind of put it together especially that second half hit 18 home runs 47 steals which were the fifth most in all of baseball and after moving to leadoff his final 73 games Abrams hit 256 11 homers 36 steals he lowered his strikeout rate he hit the

Ball harder he chased less so and during that span I think technically he was on like a 270 pace so his skill set is tantalizing he is also terrible against lefties Chris yeah and his ADP since December 1st is 37.4 so it is a huge price tag

Yeah he had I think if you just take what CJ Abrams did last season at face value there’s not much to question in the underlying stats like his expected W and his actual woba are within two points of each other that’s that does not suggest much flakiness you know

Obviously it was a big step forward for a guy who had really struggled in 20 in 2022 but the thing you have to remember about about CJ Abrams I want to get the the actual numbers right because yeah he has played 241 games at the major league

Level he had played a 114 games in the minors that you know he he there was a bit of prospect fatigue around CJ Abrams I think especially in the fantasy Community where a lot of people entering 2022 had kind of just forgotten about him and you know it took him really

Heating up midseason to to get back on people’s Radars but there he’s a player who’s played very very little professional baseball 355 games as a professional and we’ve been hearing about him for what four or five years now and he’s been a top 25 Prospect for you know four years since 2020 and

So the the rapid growth that he had in the second half of last season on the one hand you can look at it and say well that’s just a guy finally getting consistent playing time finally getting the Reps and finally getting up to speed and you know you look at the the splits

Just batting out of the lead off spot 749 Ops that’s not asking a lot and and like you said it was about a 2070 Pace I don’t think you can project anyone for 20 homers and 70 stolen bases he was 34 of 36 on stolen bases he was what 47 for

51 overall that’s a 92% success rate or something it’s a Bonkers I think you probably regress you probably expect some regression in the stolen bases but the bad is bigger question you know does he have enough bat to remain at the top of the lineup given

That it’s likely likely to be a bad lineup that’s not really competing for much anyway I think you probably just assume he’ll stay up there but the the splits are really scary 512 Ops against lefties 40 strikeouts eight walks and 169 plate appearances if it’s more like a 45 stolen base

Player that’s still plenty valuable but it’s less valuable now than it was three years ago and if it’s eight home runs in a 240 batting average you’re taking a big hit pretty much everywhere else for that so that kind of that kind of price for a guy like CJ

Abrams I get it and you know if he can prove that what he did last year was not a fluke he doesn’t even need to do the second half stuff if he just does what he did he’s going to come pretty close but it’s just it’s lot for a guy with a

Lot of red flags I did want to point out the steamer projections have him for 17 home runs 35 Steals and a 261 batting average so they are baking in a progression here for someone who was a top prospect and if you look at his scouting grades I

Mean a 70 hit tool upside according to Fang graph so there is that chance that excuse me Abrams continues to get better the batting average improves but the way that it he’s kind of set up right now what he showed us it is a weird batted

Ball profile there are a lot of infield fly balls he raised the launch angle last year he hits a decent amount of fly balls so that he can get to that near 20 home run power but I’m not sure that uh I would expect that batting average

Growth it is possible again yeah but um might be a guy who has to choose right like and and the problem is it might be choosing between hitting 260 and hitting 240 or hitting eight home runs and hitting 16 home runs and it might be like there’s not that much upside no

Matter which way he does in those two categories and so there’s going to be a lot of weight on him remaining an elite stolen base guy and he absolutely could he’s super athletic although not necessarily you know 99th percentile Sprint speed again we’re talking 81st percentile here so it’s

Just a lot of lot of ways for things to go wrong at a third round price and not not that many ways for it to go right I feel like the 80 go ahead it’s a big win you know that that’s the that’s one of the concepts that I’ve been trying to

Think about a lot with fantasy football and fantasy baseball is just like there are guys who have a lot of risk and if they hit who cares right they’re they’re you know Xander Bogarts is probably that kind of guy where like if things go right for Xander Bogarts

He’s probably not a second round pick anyway if things go right for CJ Abrams you know he might be a top 12 player and so that’s where it’s like I can definitely see it being worth the cost it’s just it’s a little hard to justify the ADP since December 1st for CJ Abrams

Is 37.4 he’s going just after gunar Henderson just ahead of B bashed which might sound crazy to some but B bashet doesn’t run anymore what kind of power are we projecting moving forwards so I think that’s probably the right range in a roto or a categories league and

Something else we talked about with Abrams he’s the perfect player to pair with if you have in a 12 team League at the end of the first round you draft two of Aaron judge or Juan SoDo yordon Alvarez Cory Seager whatever it might be because those guys are not GNA give you

Many steals and then you come back around and you you pair Abrams with like one or two of those hitters I think that makes a lot of sense and then maybe you pick up some pitching after that uh and obviously in a points League I think

Abrams will will drop down a little bit because steals are not as valuable and the plate discipline is not great let’s move on to the Outfield and Nolan Jones just had a great season a breakout season with the Rockies hit 297 with 20 homers 20 steals a 931 Ops in just 106

Games he was one of 19 players to go 2020 and if you project that uh not project if you Pro rate that over 150 games 28 homers 28 steals for Nolan Jones who did some great things here Chris he showed off that uh great eye

That we saw in the miners he still did strike out quite a bit but he hit the ball hard he was very good against lefties he was good on the road which was surprising to me as well he did have a bad jly and then he bounced back too

Like young players that kind of face adversity and then they bounce back and we saw that from Nolan Jones the ADP since December 1st 57 as the 15th outfielder off the board what are your thoughts on Nolan Jones so there are a couple places to start right one is just

He’s probably not a 300 hitter you know like that that’s just he had a 401 babit even playing half your games at Coors Field you can’t expect a 400 babit Todd hton didn’t put up 400 babits Larry Walker wasn’t doing that consistently probably I’m going off the top of my

Head maybe they did either way those are two guys who are going to be in the Hall of Fame Nolan Jones likely go out on the limb likely not going to be a Hall of Fame gam so you probably can’t expect that kind of production and you look at

The expected batting average 249 now playing half your games of course field you can definitely expect better than the expected stats that’s just the way that’s going to work but there’s going to be some regression with the batting average especially when you’re talking about a guy who struck out 30% of the

Time so you start there he he’s not going to replicate that is he likely to replicate 28 stolen bases or the to 28 stol in base Pace it’s possible but again it’s not likely he sto 19 bases in 193 games at Triple A it’s just probably not going to

Be a 3030 guy maybe a 305 guy that might be possible so you have to account for some level of regression but this price might already be accounting for that level of regression right like if he hits 2 50 with 25 homers and 15 stolen bases okay he’s probably not going to

Going to be the number 15 outfielder he’s probably not going to be worth a sixth round pick but you’re probably not too upset about that outcome and it’s entirely possible he hits 280 so this is one that I haven’t given it quite enough thought yet like you said earlier we’re

Still in the process of doing our rankings I’m early in the process of doing our rankings those will be up on CBS sports.com in a couple of weeks he he gives me indigestion when I think about him because this is one of those big hit big Miss guys the the

Thing about it though is because of course field the Miss might not be that big you know that there’s still this was what I was talking about when Nolan Jones got called up and you know he was a a former top prospect who the Indian

Or the Guardians just kind of gave up on you know they just kind of got tired of trying to wait for him and I think it’s a situation where because of where he landed there might just be a high enough floor that it’s worth whatever kind of risk that price entails

And the Guardians have kind of had this issue for a while now where they’re giving up on hitters too early and they’re going to different places and and they’re working out you know Nolan Jones I know they I believe they traded away Junior cero to Tampa Bay in the

Yandy Diaz trade back in the day whatever excuse me so they have had some issues uh the Guardians have but Nolan Jones look I think there’s a lot to like I love the fact that a lefty he hit lefties well um there are like the plate discipline for sure the Zone contact is

Not good the strikeouts I think are going to be there for sure but steamer projects for a 348 babip and a 265 batting average I think that’s very fair and I think given his quality of contact in that ballpark yeah 25 to 30 home runs 20 steals he’s 78th percentile in Sprint

Speed he is a fun player um Scott has kind of talked me into him too because Scott is big on Nolan Jones he is a huge fan uh but I’ll save that for when you guys are are back around together on the podcast but yeah lots of like with Nolan

Jones the ADP since uh December 1st 57 the 15th outfielder off the board going two picks after Cody Bellinger still a free agent 16 Picks ahead of Mike Trout does that surprise you Chris the fact that Mike Trout is down at like 73 and ADP early on uh I think it’s a testament

To Mike Trout’s greatness that it took this long for him to fall this far yeah because you look at like Jun Stanton back in 2017 and he was below this well I think that was the year he won the MVP right uh he had fallen like into the 100

Range because of injuries and so the fact that we were still giving Mike Trout you know first or second round value despite all the time he’d missed I mean look I’m gonna draft Mike Trout when he’s in the 70s I’m probably gonna do that but yeah it it makes sense yeah

2017 indeed the MVP season there for John Carlos ston let’s take our final break when we return the pitchers we have one two three four pitchers that we have questions about although I’m sure we could have come up with a lot more we’ll do that right after this on the

Next NFL Monday QB with multiple win and in games on the line our crew Recaps who’s in and who’s out of super Wildcard Weekend go under Center on the only NFL show all about quarterbacks tomorrow on CBS Sports Network Welcome back in and let’s talk about the four pitchers that Chris has questions about and we will start with Tyler glass now who is now a member of the Dodgers coming off of season with a 353 er a 108 Whip and a career-high 120 Innings pitched in the regular season now if you

Combine some of his minor league Seasons he has thrown more than that but if we’re just looking at what he’s done in the majors he has not thrown more than 120 Innings now we know when gln now is on the mound he is awesome among starting pitchers with 120 Innings

Pitched this past season he was second in K per9 he was second in K minus walk rate he was second in swinging strike rate and he had the seventh Best Stuff Plus at 121 obviously now on the Dodgers great run support um H I guess defense might

Be a little bit shaky but he gets so many strikeouts Chris this comes down to like how many starts are you projecting like how how much are we going to get out of glass now if he gives you 150 160 he’s probably going to be worth being drafted as like the 10th starting

Pitcher off the board yeah yeah in an era where very few pitchers throw 200 I I guess he could be worth being the T but that’s asking something that he’s never done at the major league level like you said there were times what was his career high I think his career high

Is only like 130ish even with I don’t uh 155 sorry in 2017 they 150 Innings as long ago as John Carlos Stanton was an MVP caliber player uh or was winning MVPs anyway so I I there’s no way I’m gonna be able to draft him at

This price I I get all the cases for him I get how good he is it’s still it’s still number 10 starting pitcher for a guy who hasn’t thrown 150 Innings at any level since 2017 and whose career high in the majors is 120 I just there’s

No way I’m going to be able to do it I I get the upside I get playing to win and not playing to not lose and and all that stuff perhaps fitting that an ambulance goes by as we’re talking about Tyler glass now uh I just there’s no way I can justify it

That there’s just he he excels at strikeouts while strikeouts are relatively easy to find he’s actually been a guy who has pitched to a higher ER than you would expect 320 over the course of his Tampa Bay Rays career which is when they figured out how to

Make him good 320 irra is awesome there’s nothing wrong with that but it’s not we’re not talking about Jacob deg Grom here and obviously Jacob deg Grom last year was going a little higher than this he was you know more like a top 20

Pick this is in the 40s I I just can’t do it with Tyler glass Now give me give me Pablo Lopez who has his own history of of injuries but has put together full seasons before it’s not even put together a full season last year Tyler

Glasso has just never done it and I just I can’t ask someone to do something they’ve never done when they’re 30 you know it it’d be it’d be different if we were talking about Yuri Perez you know who probably doesn’t have that much that kind of upside but you

Know also I think you could maybe project them for the same number of innings this season I agree with you on Pablo Lopez ahead of glass now Pablo Lopez 180 plus Innings two years in a row he made some massive changes to his Arsenal and you

Know he was what top five in strikeouts this past season so I agree with that one but I kind of like it I the problem is look when you look at the rest of the guys being drafted in his range or I guess after him it’s kind of

Ugly you know like Aeron Nola no workload concerns he might put up a 46 ER doesn’t that feel like a good combination though like putting out with Nola like a Workhorse or even a Logan web with glass sure I think that’s pretty reasonable Logan web I mean he’s

Three rounds later so I I think that makes a lot of sense but yeah that I get it relative like the next three starting pitchers being drafted are Aeron NOA Terk scoble Freddy Peralta framber Valdez Blake Snell I mean I guess in that context Tyler glass now’s price isn’t horrible

There’s definitely sticker shock and we’re going to talk about two of those Five Guys right now yeah scoble I I do think you have to be cognizant of the rotation you build around him like I just mentioned you know pairing him with an arinola or a George Kirby or Logan

Web and then later on you probably have to get another endings eater type like Amero Kelly or Jordan Montgomery something like that just to kind of supplement him in case things do go wrong I listened to an interview with Tyler glass now where he said he was

Only going to throw around 20 to 22 starts last season no matter what like even without the oblique injury I also kind of like the fact that it wasn’t an arm injury it was an oblique not that I like any injuries but it does surprise me a little bit Chris because you have

Been very injury agnostic in the past but less so about starting pitchers especially when you know you’re talking about like repeat we’re talking about like a decade now of Tyler glass I mean not a full decade but seven years since Tyler glass now threw 150 Innings and

Pitching is a really difficult thing to do it’s really hard to throw 100 miles hour you know 50 times a day or every five days and stay healthy and Tyler glass just hasn’t shown that he can do that and so I think it’s safe to assume

That he cannot and look I think it’s probably safe to assume that Mike Trout is unlikely to play 150 games this season I I don’t know if cannot do is the right word for either of them because I don’t want to foreclose the possibilities there are wide ranges of probabilities for all

Players Tyler glass now is probably among pitchers being drafted I don’t know in the top 100 maybe top 150 the least likely to throw 130 Innings you H I have to scroll through but if he’s not the least lik not counting relief pitchers he he is one of

Them for sure let’s move on to another pitcher you already mentioned Terk scoel who is 27 years old and he only made 15 starts in 2023 as he was returning from flexer tendon surgery but he was amazing in those starts a 280 erra a 090 whip

Well over a strikeout per inning if you look at among starting pitchers with 80 Innings pitched last year scoble it feels weird saying last year we’re only like three days into 2024 uh but scoel ranked fifth in erra first in FIP first in xfip first in Sierra six in Caper N9

Second in K minus walk rate sixth in swinging strike rate how many innings are we G to get I mean it’s not the same question as Tyler glass now but we haven’t seen scoel throw more than 149 and a third in the majors um but for whatever reason steamer is projecting

For 171 Innings and projecting scoble to be the fourth best starting pitcher in all of fantasy so steamer is in the projections are in Chris where are you I think I’m more in on him than I am on Tyler glass now because at least based on what ter scoble showed last

Season there’s not that big of a Talent Gap difference now I the difference there is Tyler glass now has looked like this guy since he got to the Rays what five seasons ago and Terk scoble there was a gigantic jump in how he pitched in 2023 it started you know with his brief

Minor league rehab appearance where we were noting the velocity was way up that sustained itself into the the MLB part of the schedule and yeah I mean it it might be a situation where the ceiling is 170 innings for ter sco but he had been pretty healthy before

2022 when he had the flex restrain he made 29 24 starts in 20209 uh he made uh eight starts in 20120 that was the shorten season but he was pretty much a part of their rotation the route he made 30 29 starts 31 appearances in 2021 and then things kind of fell apart

For him in 2022 when he had the elbow injury so it’s not the same kind of super lengthy injury track record with Terk scoel I’m sure there were some issues throughout there but even in 2018 you know he made 19 appearances in college then pitched as a pro and made

Nine appearances so have to assume he was healthy there I haven’t looked into it but I I feel okay about the Innings that we’re going to get from Terk scoble it’s just a question of how real was the jump that he made last season it wasn’t just the fastball velocity although that

Was a huge part of it because his fast ball had been not great before that and all of a sudden he was getting whiffed with it he was getting much better results it was also the change up which went from a very good pitch that he

Threw around 15% of the time to a really really Elite pitch that he threw 25% of the time last season 51% whiff rate 195 expected woba allowed with the F with the change up it was one of the best pitches in baseball can he keep doing that and get those

Kind of s that kind of success over a full season I think those are all fair questions but the talent level looks really high and I think there are fewer injury concerns here than there are with glass now something else interesting about Terk scoel is if you just kind of pair his

2022 and 2023 Seasons you get 36 starts of a 323 ra a 105 whip 10K per nine really good ground ball rate 133% swinging strike rate it’s not the Uber Elite pitcher that we saw towards the the back half of this past season but again if you just kind of make that

Sample size a little bit larger he’s still a really really good pitcher over the past uh two years T scoble is one other question I do have about him Chris do you think he has enough of a third pitch to kind of sustain that Elite level production I agree with you a fast

Ball throws it extremely hard the change up is Elite maybe the best change up in all baseball but the slider good enough right he had a 448 slug he only 11% swinging strike rate doesn’t matter may maybe his fast ball and change up are just so good it doesn’t really matter

What what do you think about the third pitch I think the fact that he’s a lefty and has a really good change up helps um because that can help him you know potentially avoid some of the platoon issues that that are an issue for some lefties and I think the slider is

Probably good enough it’s not a huge swing and Miss pitch and that that’s not necess necessarily surprising because you know he is a lefty and he’s throwing it mostly to right-handed batters and it’s just not going to be as effective to the opposite hand so I think that’s a

It’s reasonable to to say that that’s not like a huge weapon but the slider you know over the years even going back to 2022 and even back to 2021 was getting good results on balls and play and so even if it’s not the swing and

Miss weapon even if he has to rely on the fast ball and ch up adds his put away pitches more than most pitchers would the fact that he can get soft contact with the slider I think that’s a positive it’s not as limited a repertoire as you might

Think just looking at the whiff rates you know it’s a it’s a useful pitch if not a true weapon sco’s ADP since December 1st is 53.4 as the sp12 off the board which again might surprise some people three picks behind arinola five picks ahead of Yoshi noou Yamamoto I

Mean just take that that name he’s going ahead of Yamamoto right we have questions there too and I mean at least we saw scoble do it in the second half of the Season at the major league level so and and this isn’t toak amamoto I like imagine what kind of contract ter

Scoel would get in free agency right I like what the tigers are doing I I get that it’s a big price tag but I’m in I’m in yeah I think it’s reasonable yeah I like both him and glass now again it’s if I draft either one I I think I might

Draft a higher floor SP2 or I mean if there’s some way you could pull off where you get a starting pitch ahead of those guys like a wheeler in round two or whatever Luis Castillo Gosman and then you come back around and take another one of these pitchers but if you

Do that you’re also investing a lot in pitching early on so keep that in mind let’s move on to Blake Snell who is currently a free agent and coming off uh his second sa Young Award this time in the National League a 225 ra a 119 whip two 234 strikeouts the third most

Strikeouts in all of baseball and just some fun say Young stats I got these per mlb.com Snell became the first Al NL pitcher since 1913 when earned runs became official in both leagues to lead the majors in both ER and walks he also became the first

Pitcher since early win in 1959 to lead the majors in walks while winning the award so just hearing those stats it just kind of starts the questions and gets the wheels turning like all right what do we do with Blake Snell we still have to find out where he’s going to

Wind up the ADP since December 1st is 64.2 as the 16th starting pitcher off the board uh also the seventh player to win a sa young in both leagues I think all the other ones are in the Hall of Fame except for Max Scherzer who almost certainly will be one

Day I don’t think Blake Snell is going to make the Hall of Fame and I look this is one that I just you don’t want to buy Blake snow when the price is high and you don’t want to sell Blake snow when the price is low and right now the price is high

Because he’s coming off one of those Seasons where I don’t want to say there were not any Downs along with the UPS but there were certainly fewer than we are used to I mean Blake Snell is a guy over the past couple years we’ve had to

Talk people out of dropping like we we had to do it last year last year yeah young in like may people were trying to drop him and so that is not to say that Blake Snell is not a good pitcher he’s clearly a very good pitcher we’re

Talking about a guy with a thousand Major League Innings and a 320 ER it’s just he’s never as good as he looks when he’s at his best and he’s never as bad as he looks when he’s at his worst and the problem with Blake Snell is figuring

Out when he is going to be at his best and when he is going to be at his worst is impossible there really there are a few like pitch mix things that have led to some success consistently for him but I just I don’t believe that any of us are good enough

At predicting what’s going to happen in the future to predict when you can and cannot buy Blake snow I think you either if you buy him you’ve got to the ride and the problem is right now you’re buying him at a top 70 pick and I just I

Can’t justify that I will just buy Blake Snell when he has a bad month and the person who has him on his team gets frustrated with him and tries to sell him I I there’s just there is no way I’m going to be able to buy Blake Snell at

This price yeah look it seems obvious that you should expect regression we’re talking about a 225 ER for someone that walks nearly five batters per nine innings but there were just other obvious things too right 256 babit it’s very low for him it’s 288 for his career

He had an 87% strand rate for his career it’s been 78% so he pitched really really well with Runners on base is that something that’s going to remain probably not I mean if you’re looking at him to regress what would you expect I don’t know maybe a mid threes ER but as

You’ve said if you go year by year there’s not really a lot of in between it’s either it’s you know really really awesome Blake Snell who wns wins sa young or someone who’s very erratic and he’s dealing with injuries and there’s not really that in between so uh I think I’m probably going

To be lower on him than the ADP as well I think Scott has him at like SP 11 or 12 something like that um Scott’s theme this year Chris is like really focusing on strikeouts and trying to get as many pitchers with amazing strikeout rates as possible and obviously Blake Snell fits

That mold uh but I do think there are lots of questions uh the 16th starting pitcher off the board as I mentioned since December 1st let’s wrap up with hunter green who is someone we’ve talked a lot about over the past couple of years even last year Chris I think hadam

Has both a breakout and a bust which might confuse some people but there’s obvious reasons right it’s the stuff is tantalizing the strikeout rate is amazing but the things that go wrong for hunter green go really wrong we’re talking about bad control Fly ball pitcher gives up hard contact in the

Worst ball in baseball to do those things in so maybe one of these years he kind of figures it out and it’s like a mid to high three zra and he stays healthy and gives you 250 strikeouts or something like that but to me even as the 37th starting pitcher off the board

I think the downside is still too low until I’ve seen hunter green do it yeah I I think that price probably makes sense you know 130ish overall 37th starting pitcher you said 30 37th yeah I I think that’s probably pretty reasonable for a guy who if he stays healthy and remind me

What his injury was last year it was went on the 60-day I with a hip injury hip injury and then the and shoulder the previous year at the end of the season yeah that like that doesn’t suggest too much concern from a health perspective a hip like it obviously could become a

Degenerative issue and and prop up over and over again but as far as stay most young pitchers who throw 98 miles an hour obviously pretty high risk of injury just within that cohort of course but for me it’s it’s more the production and I I think he might be a guy that you

Just have to live with higher eras in particular than you might otherwise hope for I think the whip will probably also be in the one two 13 range rather than in the four range it was last year but I I do think he could be someone who is

Also just a few tweaks away from really figuring things out and so you know at this price I feel like he leans more toward the breakout side than the bus side where yeah things can go wrong he’s gonna give up a ton of home runs that’s

Just going to be a part of his game he’s so fastball Reliant the fast ball is a flyball pitch for him and it gets hit hard when it gets hit he gets a lot of whiffs with it probably needs to get more whiffs than he did last season 25%

Whiff rate with the fast ball you probably prefer him to live more in that Elite 28 to 30% range um but I just I do feel like there are tangible paths to Improvement for for hunter green that make him worth paying up for at the price because you know you’re going to

Get Elite strikeouts from him you know you’re going to get at least stretches from him where he looks like an absolute a and if he can just avoid more of those worst case scenario outings I think he’s someone who has a lot going for him and it’s also a situation

Where if he can develop that change up a little more and become a little less predictable with his pitch mix that should also help as well and as somebody who again I’m a little bit more worried about Hunter Green and the floor you don’t have to look too hard to know to

See like a Dylan CE 2022 season out of him right where things just kind of break right and he has this massive strikeout season that’s definitely within the range of outcomes for hunter green uh and the price tag is interesting sp37 since December 1st seen him be a starter over a full season

Yet Gavin Williams comes with the prospect pedigree so it’s an interesting range of some high floor pitchers and some kind of upside you names in there as well yeah that is probably a range of pitchers that I’m going to be drafting in pretty regularly and you know I think

It obviously depends on what you did early on earlier on right if you were the person who took Tyler glasnow or ter scoel it may not make a lot of sense to grab the high variant playing hunter green but if you opted for Pablo Lopez or Aeron NOA in that stretch you know

Then it might make a little more sense to chase that strikeout upside to chase you know what could potentially be you know I don’t know if there’s ever going to be a sub three erra from hunter green but you know mid3 zra hopefully decent is whip but just a

Ton of strikeouts I mean we’re talking about a guy who 250 strikeouts is not an unrealistic ceiling for him so you know it it probably depends on how you’re putting your staff together but I don’t dislike Hunter Green’s price all right there it is we’re gonna wrap there Chris

Is back and he is on the baseball side fulltime let’s go for Chris I am Frank thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today please make sure to follow and leave a FIV star rating on Apple or Spotify and we’ll be back again next week with Scott White byebye