The Tour is back! Get in the swing of things at The Sentry 2024 with our experts’ PGA DFS preview & best bets!
Can Viktor Hovland (9/1) stay hot & cash the outright? And will Wyndham Clark (50/1) do enough to be worthwhile in the prop market?
PGA analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer set course for Kapalua Resort on “The 19th Hole (S4 E1).”
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Hey guys welcome back to the 19th Hole in between media is excited to present the 2024 season on the PGA tour we’re starting with the centy on Maui in Hawaii Aloha make sure you like And subscribe join us for the 19th Toll Helloha everyone welcome back 19th Hole season 20 4 2024 season what four three I don’t even know Conor’s back Conor I’ve known you too long I’ve known you too long at this point I think that’s how many seasons yeah it’s it’s uh we got we got
All the 19th Hole loonies back in the gang here let’s pull them up before we get started Seth our fearless leader oh yeah let’s [ __ ] roll baby Royal Slade Aloha to all you and can that are going to be telling us to play Cory Connors again don’t do it are you
Ready to be hurt hey oh hi Joey W football guys in the house I’m a very proud member of the ohigh gang I need to get one of those shirts to make it official season four of the 19th Hole we’re starting with confir the century it’s not the Tournament of Champions
Anymore because they added on the top 50 on top of the previous Champions they can’t they just simplify it it’s like the Ohio State University it’s the century yeah you have to say it in that accent moving forward now it’s fancy as hell yeah Wendy is here she’s early as her name would
Imply on time we’ll take on time from Wendy Wendy punctual we got some new tools and tricks up our sleeves for the for the tournament here uh we got banners we got the the plantation course at caloa on the island of Maui look at that Connor we also have
A new drop for you but let’s let let’s figure out what we’re drinking first I uh like I was saying I went old stable I figured I’ll start the start the season out on a staple hopefully my traditions pay off and we we have a good
Week so just a little old Forester 86 just a little base just a little siping liquid little base little bum bum bum bum bum bum just a little strum well I broke out a very special bottle I got this for Christmas from my mother and it is a Heaven’s Door
Homesick Blues Minnesota weeded bourbon is cast strength at 1227 proof special edition Bob Dylan it actually has a copy double-sided copy of his actual writing of Homesick Blues on the stationary from the hotel Ryan in Germany where he wrote it it’s really cool touch there but I’m excited to
Finally pop this open and give it a sip oh oh that’s got that’s got a great nose already yours yours had a cork pop mine’s a Twist off so fancy well old Forester the OG old Forester is timeless it’s that good it’s it should have a screw top it’s not
Pretentious it’s just good old-fashioned Brown juice that’ll make you feel good and it won’t hurt your wallet not even a little bit 25 bucks I don’t even want to know what my mom paid for this so by the way it’s it’s got all kinds of
Fancy well you’re out of the will now I mean that’s that’s it that that’s your Joey’s here Royal and Wendy are getting getting cozy in the chat here uh let’s brush off the first of our new drops let’s go into caddy notes before we get the caddy notes from our guy Connor
Coughlin I’m Excited that’s a pretty good one was that your chair squeaking no that was that was my gets the people going man no that actually oh yeah Royal Royal’s very astute here he switch switch sides on the screen you are correct Royal I this is my better side so we’re
Just trying to I you know me I’m always starving for attention so I prefer to be on the left side but that’s the way the graphic got made so I’m not gonna argue with it it’s just a subtle way of s saying I’m more important it’s not very subtle but yeah you’re
Right dude I gotta say that was that was cool that’s the first time I’ve seen that so yeah welcome to a new year yeah Happy New Year to Bo you’re being relegated to the right side I also look much taller on the left side like truth be told we’re the same height but
Not not online we aren’t I’m very tall no you’re very close to your camera which makes you look gigantic compared to me and that’s not the case it adds 30 pounds more to what I am so yeah get all my chin I can see your pores oh God
That’s bad really I should turn my hat around super high de oh all right so uh enough of our nonsense uh so we are at the uh Sentry uh this is an elevated event uh we got the winners in the top 50 from last season we’re at the plantation course
And kaaloa uh par 7375 96 on the yardage uh you’re de you got some wider than average Fairways larger than average greens this should be a birdie Fest providing the weather uh the weather plays nice which we’re getting mixed weather reports but we can talk about that in a bit um there is
Quite a bit of elevation change here which actually will add quite a bit of distance for some of the shorter guys off the te uh what’s interesting about the off the te portion even though these are super wide Fairways the majority of the field will be hitting their approach
Shots from almost the same spot this is definitely a second course uh second shot course um like I said uh getting back to the weather briefly like we’re definitely going to get some moisture mostly Thursday Friday it’s not going to be crazy um wind depending on where you
Read and that’s this is the part that you want to pay attention to when we get closer to uh lock on on the betting side as well as the DFS side is definitely take a look at the wind because we’ve seen reports as subtle as seven miles
Hour we’ve seen as high a gust as uh mid 20s um so you start getting up there in the windier um you know in the 20s low 30s in the wind that’s gonna play havoc on these guys a little bit it’s a little bit of the defense of the course because
Outside of that relatively straightforward course um you got Bermuda greens um what else are we talking about here we got it’s a no cut event which uh basically uh basically is a huge benefit for DFS when we get to that um I’m guessing about 28 under probably
Wins this I think we had 27 last year with John ROM taking it down we had 34 under the year before with Cam Smith even our old buddy Harris English who were a little uh reluctant to play nowadays uh threw a 25 under down a couple years before that so um like I
Said it’s second course second shot course a lot of a stroke gain approach looking at the different proximity buckets that uh these guys are going to be hitting approach from um you definitely need to score birdies and bunches so you want to take a look at
That um I’m a little different than a lot of people I am emphasizing driving distance just a bit I I really want to see if we can get guys that are hitting predominantly like high irons and uh and wedges this week so little bit of distance never hurt anybody and this
Place is wide open so I kind of like attacking it from that angle and being a little different than the rest of the world um yeah outside of that um if you’re building a model for DFS I would definitely take into count DK points with no cut you’re getting four rounds
So you want guys that uh historically score well so I think that is what I know about the course Bo yeah and I’m with you on a lot of those things there uh we’ll have to see what the weather looks like according to AI weather uh we’re looking at pretty
Calm winds overall but gusts of course it’s Hawaii so I mean there it’s tiny chain of islands in the middle of Pacific Ocean you never know what you’re going to get there there’s been a lot of lot of chain storms coming through that area it could be pretty wild it could be
Pretty mild uh at at certain points if it’s mild you’re going to see everybody in this field score well and that’s that’s going to be a pretty good equalizer for us so I think both of us are hoping that the weather is a little bit gnarly so that we can get some of
These better plays rise to the top uh this is 59 players in a field that used to be 30 uh because of the expansion of Prior Champions plus the top 50 uh left over it’s a bigger field more money involved it’s the same old straightforward par 73 the only one on
Tour uh long one of the longer courses on tour but lots of elevation changes that kind of make that more of a kind of a Mis misleading yardage you got a lot of big like the 18th is 677 yards but most players can reach it into two because it’s straight down towards the
Beach uh you get 150 yards after the land spot of roll out on drives it’s fun to watch because the backdrop is spectacular it’s the Pacific Ocean and all the palms and it I mean if if you get some strong trade wins the scoring could be below 20 under par we saw a
Couple years ago it was down at 14 underpar so you never know uh I I think it’ll be kind of in the Middle where you’re 25 to 30 like you said 28 a pretty solid number uh but if it’s if it stays calm we could see 30 under pretty
Easy easily or even better with with an expanded better field the scoring is going to be strong yeah there’s and there’s a lot of good guys to take a look at in this field too that are fully capable of of getting an excess of 30 under if the
Weather stays pretty calm so um yeah I think the I think how long do you want to go till we start fighting because uh driving distance John ROM long hitter but not one of the longest uh cam Smith set the course record here at 34 under
He’s one of the shorter on tour or M kind of moderate distance I don’t think it plays any part at all uh obviously you want to have some length here but if you have your run-of-the-mills tour average or above distance here you’re going to be fine and I do think that one
Correlation that hasn’t been played up as much that I’ve seen is huting like converting birdie chances and maybe not just straight Strokes gain putting because this course isn’t that hard you’re going to see a lot of guys make putts but the guy who can convert the birdie and Eagle opportunities on these
Par fours and Par fives that’s that’s be that seems to be what cam Smith excelled at with ROM when ROM won here it was just because he got so blazing hot on the greens getting aggressive we notice it’s Bermuda but there’s slow Bermuda John ROM didn’t do well on Fast screens
We outlined that all last year where we could predicted when John Ron was going to compete and when he wasn’t just based on the speed of the greens slow Bermuda greens mean these aggressive typee Putters are going to do really well here and maybe not for the top guys that
We’re looking at that everybody’s going to be betting on and putting in their DFS lineups but those mid-range and long shot guys I’m looking for guys who are making lots of putts uh this is kind of your putting contest type of setup for me that’s how it looks from my
Perspective yeah the the putting I definitely definitely had quite a bit of putting in my modeling so um you know typically I like that I like that we’re not fighting it well I mean and and we’re not going to fight on the distance either like my my point with the
Distance is is more along the lines of some of the bigger hitters are hitting shorter irons in from the from on the second shot approaches so I just like I like some of the guys that are a little more um handy with the shorter irons and I think that translates like uh aberer
Is one that I would look at that the driving distance and the second shot average distance um you know I think those are things to actually value with him this week versus a guy like maybe Brian Harmon you know that’s going to be a club or two longer on on each shot so
That’s kind of more the distance correlation I’m talking about but three putt avoidances especially on these greens these greens I think are around an 82% uh hit rate which is like I think it’s like the third um best on tour um and so when you look at that it’s like
People don’t always take into account that yeah they’re hitting the green but they might be 50 feet away so guys that are guys more that’s what I’m that’s what I’m looking at and to your point with the birdies I looked a lot at like opportunities gains so guys that are uh
Knocking it close on their second shot and giving themselves a solid look at at birdie with within 10 15 feet so so I think we’re we’re pretty similar um I just have a little bit more of a distance or or a power type of profile
Built into my model so yeah I I just I kind of built it in as a as kind of a you know like a constant as a control like the my control is distance so it’s it’s not something that separates anything from me it’s just something I’d
Like to have if maybe it’s a it’s a tiebreaker type thing if I have two guys that are right next to each other and it’s like you said Harmon on a 7600 yard course probably don’t want him over ludig o because ludig is a robot he’s
Not even human he hits the ball 300 yards just without blinking because he doesn’t require blinking or sleep sleep or rest or or water uh so we’ll we’ll have we’ll actually see this season starting this week whether lud viob is even human uh this is the breakout
Season we’re all expecting uh maybe a little little premature to say that he plays well here that’s that’s what I’m we’re gonna probably fight about as soon as we hit this drop here for Club Twirls because we’re going to be betting we’re both laying skin in the game here uh on
The first event of the year the century let’s twirl some Clubs Twirls we’re going to use yeah we’re going to use uh we’re going to use DraftKings sports book again this year really neutral uh book really solid odds they don’t change a ton for golf from the time they’re released on Mondays to when we’re talking about them on
Tuesdays and worrying about them on Wednesday nights uh this is uh it’s it’s really nice to see that they’re already on their [ __ ] this year draftking sports book with the with the Lions on at the Sentry because we’re we have 11 to2 odds on Scotty Sheffer and 8 to one odds on Victor
Havland and as you probably know from watching the show for the last three years is we’re not about to go less than 10 to one on any particular guy unless it’s really warranted Connor I have a feeling we’re going to fight because I’m not putting any money towards either
Sheffler nor Hof land because I like the guys in the 12 to 16 to one range just as much so why lay more money to win the same amount of money when Sheffer and havland aren’t that much better than all the other guys and see that’s where
That’s where I disagree I think they are that much better than the other guys and I think and it’s usually the other way around right like last year I was all over Sheffer a couple times where he was five or six to one and I was like yeah let’s do it anyway
And one time it paid off and the other times it didn’t and but we won a [ __ ] ton on havin last year so it was it kind of evened out yeah and I think I think even at these short odds I mean I I I I honestly think that those two guys
Scotty and Victor hland and um I mean they’re short so you got to you got to make a decision I don’t I don’t think you can put enough uh skin on it to make it worthwhile on both of them um at least I can’t I’m not that independently
Wealthy so um I I think you wouldn’t be gambling on golf yeah that’s right right be doing responsible things like talking to some sort of investment banking or something but um no I think I think if it’s me uh I lean Scotty Scotty’s got decent history here um heat dominated this year
In terms of approach and off the te and you know all his proximity buckets look really good uh he he hits the ball super close which is about the only way that he’s been able to save himself from his horrid putter um but even that I know
That’s been the key focus of his offseason I know he’s got some equipment changes he’s had some customization done to try and get himself right in that method and on top of that even as bad as his putting has been over the last like 12 to 14 months uh he gained over three
Strokes here last year on the putting surface so I you know this is a what did he finish last year 13th 11th 30 oh wow so dominant no no but but you just look at you look at the actual statistical performance of him I mean you just can’t
Rule Scotty out I think I think with with hland with havland I think I think he’s probably got the more well-rounded game right now I think every aspect is is almost equal at this point um and so it’s hard to deny that havin is probably the hottest golfer on Earth next to next
To Oar probably um even even more so maybe um so I feel really good about either one of them having a really really high potential to win here um it just it it sets up really nice for both of them well-rounded game again Scotty finds that putter just a little bit or
Feels comfortable on the slower Bermuda which we know he is a little better putter on its lower surface I I don’t think either one’s that so I ran I ran some numbers and the one bucket on approach that worried me on Scotty was 200 plus yards and that’s
Where he came in I think 33rd in this field out of out of 59 uh that’s not good that’s average if if not below average for this and there’s quite a few 200 plus yard approaches on this course it’s a part 73 there’s only three par Theses
On this entire Golf Course uh plus he was 53rd in putting in this field of 59 obviously we knew that was going to be the core Larry I don’t like that his birdie or better percentage was affected so greatly by his putting metrics he obviously was world class from T to
Green one of the I’d say top five all time from te to Green in the history of golf that’s how good he was off the te and on approach last year and he still came an 18th in this field in birdier better percentage uh that should tell you a lot
Of concerning things why the stats sometimes will lead you to put a bet on a guy at at 11 to2 when a guy who’s 16 to one is better across the board and all those very important metrics that c ala than Scotty Sheffer because he’s the
Number one player in the world you can never count him out I’m just saying I’m not laying money on him or havland at less than 10 to one because this field is that good this field is loaded with good players so I saw similar with Scotty until I expanded my model like my
Amount of rounds that I took into it and got it back to the Hawaiian swing last year and what’s interesting about that is he becomes number three in the field from 200 plus approach uh he comes in number one on opportunities gained and number 10 in bird your better rate so I
Again if you go back to if you go back to 2002 you’re not gonna be able to avoid putting Tiger Woods in here even though he’s not playing that’s enough Scotty cheff I’m I’m just saying I don’t I don’t normally line up for Scotty and
Uh this week this week no you don’t this week I i’ it’s lining up for me so yeah he came in number one in my model but not by not by the margin that I was hoping for the odds that he’s playing so that’s what my caveat is I’m starting my
Cards with a guy that I know you’re fading who I think is about as automatic as it gets on the west coast swing and that is Patrick kentley H Patrick kley good course history here he’s across the board one of the best golfers in the world short game Tea Green putting he
Does everything really well he’s not going to he’s not going to be the guy that flounders to the middle or the bottom of the pack with a four round uh go at it this course is doesn’t have much defense to it obviously except for length and even that is mitigated by the
Elevation changes that for the I mean we’re talking about cliffs in Hawaii like this this course is crazy mountainous but Patrick hlay Colin morawa Xander shafley all those guys 12 to 14 even lud bigo which I I think he’s a little bit short for what we’ve
Actually seen from him in fields of this strength I like I like him at more of a 20 to1 he has slipped from 12 to 14 maybe we get a little bit more slipping from oberg which makes them more playable on the betting cards but if you
Go with Klay morawa and Xander I am I’m gonna put some money on all three of those guys because I feel they’re just as likely to win this thing as Scotty and as Victor yeah I think of the three I’m I’m with you on Xander Xander is the one
That I have the most interest in um Sander’s so locked in too I think the problem I have with Klay is not that anything you said is not accurate about him he just really never like drags his ass across the Finish Line you know like
He’s he’s right there um and even in the four starts here yeah he’s inside uh I think he’s got an 11 a 13th a fourth and a third or two fourths he’s always there yeah I mean he’s he’s there but it’s just doing can’t lay things he never
Never closes it so so like I don’t feel some are saying he’s still playing last year’s tournament yeah yeah that might be part of the problem is it takes him takes him a week to play four rounds um but uh um I have some interest in morawa
But I’m a little I’m a little bit on morawa the way you are on Oar in that morawa had a little bit of a Resurgence at the tail end of last year but he was not playing Great Golf and I’m G to hold off betting him until I see if this is
If it was like a flash or if if he’s kind of back into form so uh Xander out of those three would be the one for me um and I he’s right up there you’re right I mean he’s as good as anybody else we’ve talked about so far and uh
Sets up really nicely here so he does um anybody else we skipped over here any interest in Max hom H rated out extremely poorly in my model so I’m GNA skip him alog together uh shoot we didn’t really skip anybody Fitz is the next one at 22 Jordan speed at 22
This might be the course where even Jordan Speed can’t miss the Fairway but we might see we we might have a cutaway on Thursday uh with Jordan Speed hanging on to a little piece of grass on the cliff side because he miss one 80 yard wide Fairways who knows you know the
Thing he’s done well here he’s won here before the thing with him though is like somehow magically he plays worse when it’s wide open like I don’t know how that works but hey aim small Miss small right right Wide Open Spaces are not good for
Speed and but he scores a [ __ ] ton of DFS points that’s that like when we get to our next section it’s gonna be a whole different story on Jordan spe yeah I I like speed and DFS a lot better um Fitz is probably the one uh that you
Mentioned that I would have some interest in uh he I mean he really was looking good towards the tail end of the season he’s picked up some disc which I like for his game um you know he’s always good um on approach always good around the green um good putter typically um
And and he does have the potential to go low if given the opportunity so uh Fitz would probably be probably be the one I’d have the most interest in in there yeah and I like him there if you get a little bit further down one of my favorite plays at 21
25 uh right next to your favorite play at 25 let’s let’s debate Tommy Fleetwood against Tom Kim because I like both of them I just like Tommy a little bit better here just because of the putting aspect Tom Kim scares me on the greens like I don’t know if he can make enough
Putts to keep Pace with this field so I like them both and in transparency they’re probably both getting bet um like I like them a lot um especially the price one of them is going to make us independently wealthy right yeah let’s hope so man because um
You know the thing the thing as it’s gone on in the last couple hours the more that I’ve looked at the two of them um I think I’m leaning more Tommy if I had to pick one and it’s it’s truly kind of amazing how good he’s been playing
Over the last year um so good man he’s solid just it’s Tommy Fleetwood he’s a top 10 machine and and I’m looking at his top 10 odds even and it’s plus 220 for Tommy Fleet would to finish top 10 out of 59 golfers and the the role he’s
On that’s easy money I I think yeah definitely agree with you and like I said I mean I think it’s Tommy Fleetwood so he’s one of those dudes we talk about where like for whatever reason he doesn’t get the credit he deserves for as good as he’s been playing and not
Only has he been playing good on the PGA tour he’s been playing good um across um across the ocean too I mean you put him in in any tour any setup any course any whatever um and Fleetwood still manage is to perform so um you know I think
He’s I think more so than Tom Kim he’s just a Steady Eddy I think with Tom Kim um I think I lean more as a DFS play with him just because I think the the upside and the point scoring could potentially end up being higher if
Neither one of them wins I think Tom Kim probably has has the higher DFS scoring potential than Tommy barring one of them winning yeah all right so as we go down here I know we both like sunj M just a great fit for this course ex excellent course
History this guy’s the top five machine at caloa uh as good of a ball Striker as you’re going to find proximity on the approach distances all the buckets look great uh he’s a guy who can put the lights out when he’s on uh I I don’t
Think you’re G to disagree with me on him so we’ll skip right through sunjay because we both love him sunjay 35 to one odds to win and let’s see I like Ricky here at 35 I think that’s a little short for him here but he does line up well in the stat
Model for me Russell Henley same thing at 35 cam young can’t do it but Windam Clark are you with me on Windam Clark because he’s kind of like Jordan spe in a way where if he can find the fairways we’re talking about a top five putter in the world and a pretty decent
An approach player when he’s in the Fairway when he’s in the Fairway so I’m probably going to eat my words really quickly this season but I think uh I think I think windom’s 15 minutes are up man I think I think oh no I hope he wins now I hope he wins the
First tournament of the year to shut your ass up like don’t get me wrong I think I think he’ll have a couple good performances but like he won a major last year and and he didn’t do a whole lot after that if memory serves um FR and frankly I think I think he’s
Just one of those one of those guys that I think we’re gonna have our spots with him he was one of the big outrights that you and I hit this year or last season like you see it coming with Windam I I don’t see anything to show that it’s
Coming this week I would say I would say let’s get a few tournaments under our belt and then maybe go back to the Windham Clark well but yeah right right now I there’s just I don’t see it so there’s two other guys at 50 to1 that I don’t like as much but
They did rate out well in the stat model Eric Cole Cam Davis what do you think Eric Eric Cole I think is where I’m going there I do like Cam Davis so I got a lot of lot of love for him Cam Davis is chalky as all hell in DFS so because
You know the course history yeah I think I I don’t think he wins but I think he’s going to score some points I I think uh we’ll talk more about eating some ch when we get there but um I think for betting I think Eric Cole um probably
Has the higher upside to win um so that’s kind of where I’m going there my guy in the 50s is uh I another dude that I rarely jump on board with but sah the gala at 5500 um it’s that same premise though if he can find the Fairway he’s pretty damn
Good 100% And we already know he can putt so we don’t have to worry about him getting a little crooked off the tea or on approach these greens are huge the fairways are huge um he’s one of the top three putt avoidance guys in this entire
Field um and frankly I mean he actually plays pretty good he’s a lot like uh he’s a lot like uh our buddy oh God who’s the guy with the three rounds why am I drawing a blank right now uh yeah I know what you’re talking about
Um but anyways I I wrote I wrote theala up and my biggest point on him is he’s got all the tools um he just has to keep it together for four rounds and I I think this is a good setup for him because there’s not a whole lot of
Consequence for a couple of bad shots he doesn’t have to worry about a cut so and he can definitely score birdies by by the truckload when he gets going so um theala at 55 I think is a pretty good number here for him I’ll see your theal
At 55 to one and I’ll raise you at Denny McCarthy at 65 to one all things being equal this guy puts lights out top five in the world putting and for me I just think that these guys are all going to be kind of in the same place and off the te they’re
The even if Denny’s not as good on approach he’s pretty good on approach his weakness has been off the T and if he’s got a 15 foot putt I trust him on a 15-footer for birdie more than I trust Scotty with a 10-footer for birdie that’s that should tell you a lot so
Yeah Scotty might be five feet closer to the hole on approach than than our guy uh Denny McCarthy but Danny McCarthy makes putts and he makes long putts and they’re going to have some long putts here whether you’re amazing on approach or not Scotty’s gonna have some long
Putts to deal with because nobody’s perfect out here they’re not going to be pin seeking on a 7600 yard course the guys that I trust are the guys that like you said are going to avoid three putts and they’re going to make some long bombs because if you’re not making bombs
Here you’re not keeping up a 30 underpar yeah Denny Denny fell off my card uh just before the show but I I see all your points he’s right on the cusp and I’ll I’ll he may get added we we’ll see I like I’m not gonna fight for him or
Against him it was really close for me and the the big reason is exactly what you said um excellent excellent so yeah so I’m gonna take a while guess that your long shot is Vincent Norman it’s not wow hit me hit me it’s not it’s not as deep
And as long as I normally go wow it’s gonna be that kind of show tonight that’s what she said there it is uh so my man my man Luke list at 100 to one um so oh my God so here’s here here’s why here’s why you got to hear me
Out I know I knew you were going to give me help for this but if you look at Luke list Luke list is like Biz like the anti Scotty sheffler like all of a sudden Luke list found a putter the back half of last year and started competing and
Everything for a brief moment yeah actually if you look at it he was he was pretty much just flat with the putter which for Luke list is incredible amazing yeah um so what the the other part about that is the rest of his game which has always been right on the cusp
Of being Elite stayed pretty consistent as well his approach game was solid he’s long off the te accurate off the te gains Strokes on approach and off the tea every single week and again he his putter has still 57th in this field that’s not the important part the
Important part to focus on is he’s not losing Strokes on the green like oh okay yeah so and nobody makes birdies the way that Luke list cam when he gets going so I’m just saying 100 to1 it’s reflective of the risk but 100 to1 on Luke who won
In the last six months and definitely has as complete a game as Luke list is capable of having I think it’s actually a pretty good pretty good bet you already know who my long shot is yeah and I don’t like him here he’s a grinder he’s not a that’s true I
Mean I’m just looking at the way it’s set up longer and approach shots he’s amazing top five in the world in approach over 200 yards uh again an erratic driver who’s got distance so he’s going to find these Fairways he his brother played college golf in Hawaii
He’s played here before uh this course sets up really well for Kurt Kama and that the what you said might be the one thing that keeps him at 110 to one because he’s not traditionally the type of guy who shows up at the top of the leaderboard when the scoring is primo
Like it will be here but let’s say the trade wins kick up if the trade wins kick up like we very well could get this becomes a ktk kyama course where like oh yeah 14 unders to 20 unders gonna win uh we’re gonna see Kurt kyama in the top 10
In that in that case if it’s a 25 to 30 underpar no he’s not going to be able to keep up because he’s not that type of golfer but as far as what his skill set says he can do uh it definitely lines up because he he’s exactly the type of
Golfer you want if you’re just looking at stats like okay I need a guy who has good long off the tea good on Long approach and can get hot with the putter uh that’s that seems like a good fit for 110 to one am I saying he’s gonna win no
But plus 750 for top 10 plus four some plus 375 for a top 20 I believe I we can do a lot worse than that yeah I wouldn’t I wouldn’t rule him out I just I I think at that I think at that price just to be honest and
Objective luk list has a way higher potential to win here like he can he can keep up with the scoring if he’s firing on all cylinders I I think we the same time if the wind is over five miles an hour luk list has none chance to win
Here that’s that’s probably that’s I I don’t have the win number maybe 10 miles I’ll give him some credit 10 miles an hour if the sustained winds are more than 10 miles an hour luk list should be at 250 to one he has no chance we’re talking about Hawaii here
I’m just I’m not in on kittama this week there will be weeks and I’m not on list ever because the Dude sucks there will be kittama weeks but this is not one for me you have any props you want to throw out there did you did you come up with
Any props actually one uh two of them that I actually really like because of the history at this course uh will there be a playoff yes plus 300 and will that playoff have four men in it and yes on that is plus 6,500 so four man four four would be a
Stretch but you can also get plus 900 for a thre man and I think you can get plus 300 for just a head-to-head um but historically there’s a lot of playoffs here so plus 300 for uh for the yes on on a playoff I really especially with
The expanded field I like that and then uh then I had a couple of first round leaders that I I was kind of in on uh Oar at 20 to1 list at 50 to1 and and then I’m giving a little love to my boy Lee Hodes at 80
To1 Lee Hodes I got Lee Hodes plus 250 too or oh my God I mean wow you should drink a little bit more I here he’s this Show’s already off the rails Lee Hodes and luk list on the same wow okay my first round leader man all
L’s let’s try to avoid slamming trunks this week although I think Connor is already lubing up the the the pulley on his trunk here WD40 for you the is this would be a wrestling all right we’re using DraftKings for pricing here DFS plays this is uh Connor
Had a really good year last year in DFS I won more in Bedding let’s hope that 24 has a little bit more in store for me in the DFS realm Connor very top of the board I I think we’re gonna fight right off the bat because I think the first tournament of
The Year we’re gonna have a lot of people a lot of newbies in the lobbies playing these tournaments and on DraftKings and shock is going to be unruly and on certain guys and I want to avoid that because if those guys don’t hit then I want to be in the minority on
The Leverage side especially as the season kicks off and all the newbies haven’t been flushed yet uh that’s that’s what I kind of feel it’s kind of the same week one mentality in the NFL DFS as golf this is week one and I want to to use as much
Leverage on the field in tournament play as I can and I from what I gather is that you disagree and you would like to strategically play some chalk at the top so that you can get a little funky down below am I wrong you are not wrong um because I I
Do want to play sheffler um and I want to play sheffler um because I think sharp money is going to be on sheffler in DFS I think the Casual is going to look at his price tag and have a hard time building a roster so what I’m
Seeing with with the projections is that at least in the database that you and I both use which is which is are people that are kind of kind of in it um yeah Sheffer is the chalk up there about 24% projected but um I think that also says
To me that of the top tier guys the majority of people think that he either is a going to win or B score the most DK points in that tier so um I like like I like hammer and Hammer and sheffler in um and eating some chalk
There 24% is a little bit less than I expected from Sheffer I think you’re right about the price point they’re getting a little spooked off of that $111,000 tag uh the only leverage guy up here is uh Victor havin at 15.6% according to Fantasy National
Which I love too so where I’m not going Scotty I’ll definitely be attack that Victor havin leverage because this dude scores more DFS points than just about everybody uh Rory mcky not being in this field means that Victor’s probably the classiest DFS play on the board and to
Have him as a leverage play at the top is fantastic that’s incredible because the other two guys I like up here from the betting side are even more chalky than Scotty sheffler so for me I’m playing it a whole different way from my betting cards betting cards it doesn’t
Matter if you have leverage or not you just have to have the winners in DFS you have to know what the field is playing and you have to build a lineup that can win the whole damn thing and you need to score a lot of damn points in a field of
59 golfers there’s not going to be much differentiation to have here so find The Leverage where you can play Scotty who’s a little bit less shocky than expected play Victor because he’s a lot less chalky than everybody expected so far and try to avoid the chalk bombs where I
Was just saying we should play morawa and Xander those guys are chalky as hell can’t lay chalky as hell so those might might be guys that I play about 15 to 20% of and let the rest have him and play like 50% havin 50% sheffler yeah that’s that’s about the
Ratio on sheffler and havin that I’m going to do um and to your point over over the uh 2023 season I was really surprised to find out that hin was in the top three for uh DK points scored so Y no cut of end beautiful havin havin in
My mind is almost a must roster um because he’s just gonna score points on points on points 105 it’s a perfect jumping off point for your lineup you’re not going to spend 11k to try to piece it together down below as much yeah I mean definitely like I said
I’m rostering Sheffer but um you know I think I think havin kind of has the recipe to be the best play in that top tier um I am different than you I’ll eat the Xander chock um I think that I think that 25% on Xander at 10 flat you can
Build a really nice lineup with that um and you can get different down below a little bit like there are some leverage plays in the eights and the sevens for sure that makes sense there’s even some leverage in the nines that you don’t like which for you will be easier than
Me then um yes we’re talking about Windam Clark who’s coming coming in at 7.9% God I can’t do it I’ll let you talk about Windham Clark if you’re going to do it I can’t do it honestly the price point is part of the reason he’s a little expensive at 96 I wasn’t
Expecting that price point for him because if you look around him he’s kind of like big bird at the boardroom here with Max hom and Matt Fitzpatrick around him which uh and even can’t lay for 300 more is a spectacular play compared to Clark I thought Clark was going to be in
The high eights next to Jordan spe and lud B Gober and Tom Kim in Fleetwood Fleetwood sitting down here at 9,000 flat at less than 10% roster ship and that’s fantastic I love that right next to Colin Mora at 30% that’s an easy choice for us and I love easy
Choices yeah Fleetwood is rapidly becoming my most common second guy in um so uh I cannot fight you one bit there I do like uh I want to fight with you though come on let’s go I I will I will fight a little bit with you just briefly about Windham Clark
Like I just cannot do it I the price point whatever a 9600 for Wam Clark like that’s a lot it’s a lot man and like I think a lot of I think a lot of Shar too much even for next man in I think that’s why again the price point makes him less
Chalky because you’re looking at him next to all these other guys and it doesn’t make sense like it doesn’t pass the test the Sni the sniff test is he’s he’s not coming up 96 where you want him to be your second man in you don’t want that he also doesn’t really score
DraftKings points the way that these top tier guys do either he’s 36 over the last 50 rounds in DK points scored so in this field that’s really saying something um so I I just think all signs point to picking a better spot on Windam Clark not paying $9,600 for
Him um so yeah I think I think that does get us into the nines and I think I think the most grossly mispriced thing in this entire slate is ludvig Ober $8,700 I cannot and and he’s chock that you kind of want to pick on because it’s
22% it’s not that high right because it’s just a mispriced 8,700 and it’s the opposite of the betting lines where he’s overpriced in on the betting cards at 14 to1 and he’s vastly underpriced on in DFS so what’s that tell you it’s like the sports book and the DFS algorithms don’t line up
Here yep and just do it yeah I mean I mean here’s the thing like with with him being that chalky at 8700 I think that it’s a really telling thing for DFS strategy it it’s definitely showing you that the majority of people are actually making him their
Second guy in um because he can’t be your third guy in um not unless you’re building the rest of your lineup in the 6K so the majority of people it would look to me are going Scotty Xander or Scotty or Xander and then dropping down
And uh lud viig is the next guy in so I guess I guess what I’m saying is you either got to get real creative down at the bottom if you want leverage or you got to start lower um I.E doing like a Victor havland and then you might be
Able to get two guys in in the either lower nines upper eights um and play abber but but yeah I I think there’s some strategy to be had playing him even though he’s coming in as chalk I think it’s I think like I said it’s really um depicting what people are doing in
Rostering so yeah and some of these guys that I don’t like or that are chalky uh that it’s kind of saving us here because you can you can pretty easily skip you can you can play LW viob be because Ricky Fowler is at 15% Tony fow’s at 15% uh sunj at 18% is
Almost more appealing because as we get down to this middle tier uh we we get other mispriced guys and you can get semi different just by playing some of these guys who are just mispriced and I’m starting to come around on your whole selective chalk thing because the guys that I want to
Play are around 15% and the guys that really don’t are either super duper chalky or nobody has them and they’re everybody’s thinking like we are yeah it’s one of the few weeks that I play it that way but I mean anytime you get into a lesser like lesser
Quantity in the field no cut event you’re gonna have a lot of chalk and so what I try and do like we just were talking about just strategically is I try and look at how I think people are building their roster and and you can you can follow the numbers to try and
Get a a pretty good idea of how people are building and and I think that’s what that’s the way things are going right now to your point I mean getting down into like the lower eights the upper sevens there’s some class in here that you can you can play and be different I
Mean Keegan Bradley not that I line up to play Keegan Bradley but at two and a half four% yeah I’ve got him yeah he’s up to 4.3 is what they’re they sh here but actual fantasy National lineup generator is 1.6 yeah which is wild that’s wild and
It wasn’t like Keegan was playing badly so I mean there’s there’s a real good leverage opportunity and he’s playing Bradley yeah I mean other guys in that region too like I I don’t do it often but Justin Rose no cut event excellent approach game um projected it under 10%
Roster ship down there I mean pretty good play and right below him Lucas Glover who was absolutely on fire the back half of the season um is coming in at even l so you know I think once you get down to like Eric Cole who objectively I love
Rates out really well etc etc super chalky 30 potentially 30% by the time the dust settles he 28% right now projected like no thanks that’s a lot it’s okay to bet on him because he he does line up well but that’s way tooo chalky for a value player
There’s so many good golfers down here don’t don’t just look at it and say hey Eric Cole that’s great blah blah blah like I’d rather play Denny McCarthy even though you won’t at 6% and you have seu down here at 5% that’s nice seu Kim in Hawaii is a he’s a
Winner and he can get hot this is in a guy that scores a lot of fantasy points Cam Davis is in the air coal bucket here at 7100 at 19 % up to 28% chock that’s an easy fade like this is we’re saving you a lot of stress for all you have to
Do is Dodge these landmines of guys that are in the same tier of play who aren’t even raiding out as well as some of the guys who coming at 5 six% but they’re somehow 30% owned and you’re like okay that doesn’t make any sense well it’s
Sometimes it’s not that hard you look at it at face value and say well I’m not g to play that guy so I can be a little different it’s it’s it’s a super easy strategy move in DFS golf I mean I like your call on sewo um I we played a lot
Of seiw last year so I don’t hate that did to Great to great success if I’m gonna eat moderate Chu in this price range um Cam Davis I I think on lineups where I’m I don’t even know how I’m going to build that Cam Davis makes sense at 30%
Right but I do want some it doesn’t make sense some exposure Cam Davis but I think at 18% um projected JT Poston who sets up and rates out better than Cam Davis the postman I think actually I it’s it’s not leverage but it is for the price range
You know like he’s he’s actually relatively modestly rostered in comparison to some of the some of the guys down here I.E Eric Cole and Cam Davis so right you know I like JT Poston as a pivot Denny McCarthy is actually a good pivot as well um if you’re and
They’re both sandwiched right in between two of the highest rostered guys on the whole slate so yeah that’s what I like is it’s an easy pivot let’s see you got yeah it’s just an easy pivot you’re looking at I’m I’m looking at seu and Denny right next
To uh Cole and Davis and and I like I like that in between JT posting 15 to 20% that’s not that bad 7200 that’s that’s a value play and he’s got plenty of upside number one putter in the field over the last 50 that’s nice we like to see that um so
The other guys that I like in this range um I’m gonna take a couple shots at Adam had at Adam hadwin again low roster ship Seven flat um I like what he does on the green uh avoids uh three putting quite a bit and surprisingly um you know surprisingly he scores relatively okay
DK points for for you know relatively okay pays the bills sometimes it does when it’s seven flat like it’s such a nice number um depending on how you’re building because you’re getting a fair amount of value for them you’re also avoiding Cam Davis right above him um
Ben on I think is a really interesting play um had had a couple of spikes of Brilliance uh back half of the year um he rates out 16th For Me overall um but what really caught my eye with him is he does make a ton of birdies and uh he’s
Been really solid um in terms of for Ben on avoiding three putts like his overall putting hasn’t been great but for Ben on it’s been markedly better than it previously was so he’s a little bit like luk list in that regard longer hitter better at the longer approach distances
Um and if he can just be his like new newly found flat putting self Ben on definitely has H the chops to go low so um I love that segue too because down here at 6200 is the chalki chalk bomb to ever be chalk luk list 24% on fantasy National as
6200 uh don’t do that please don’t I even even Connor wouldn’t do that I will not be roster I will not be rostering luk list at that percentage I will be hopeful that the 100 to one hits instead come on baby hey if LC 100 to one hits I’m not even probably gonna
Care what happened in DFS yeah so and it’s like Vincent Norman’s down at 6,500 I like him a little bit he’s seven to eight% rostered that’s not bad um yeah this if you’re getting down in the mid to low sixes you’re probably not doing too hot the lineup construction because of all these
Guys in the sevens and eights that we already outlined I do have a couple down here that statistically make a ton of sense um that that I think our actual quality plays Adam senson 6600 Fenson oh another Canadian there is a lot to like about his game over the last 50 rounds
Um he’s been super good on his approach and uh and being like within 10 15 feet of the hole so uh that’s helped his putting quite a bit for him uh scores a ton of DK points and uh he’s very good from that longer 200 plus uh approach
Distance so we like that and uh just like I said his overall approach game is he’s 13th in this field um Strokes scan approach over the last 50 so I mean when you look at the total body of work from the 2023 season if you expand even
Further out I mean he just gets better and better like he’s been incredibly consistent um he is getting to be a bit chalky down here uh sub seven um I got him tracking around 11 12% but’s a he’s a really nice uh low tier play I mean he
Actually has a ton of upside uh versus a lot of a lot of the guys down in here I mean you got Eric Van royan who uh if there’s a drop of water on the course his ball will end up in it um Oh you mean that they playing golf on
An island might not be good for EVR you know what I think what do you mean we’re surrounded by water oh God he probably won’t go in water all week he’ll probably win like every time I make fun but uh but yeah I mean there’s there’s some low tier plays that I think
People will gravitate towards um jokingly we you know Lee Hodes who I brought up in the earlier segment actually has been PR been playing pretty good golf rates out decently great par five scorer in this field um putting he’s in the top 20 which again at a
$6,500 price point um you know if you’re stack and top heavy and you need a couple guys down here God help you and God bless you as you as you uh hit submit um but but yeah I mean lejes and and senson are going to be the two that
I take the the deepest look at down here all right Connor you are a wild man you’re wild man it’s week one week one 2024 the century not the century Tournament of Champions anymore because they’re letting just say about any Yahoo’s in the top 50 into this
Tournament now another one for the part participation trophy crowd that’s not true these guys are all really damn good uh even Nico etaria made the field here which tells you everything you need to know about Connor Coughlin because he’s been talking about Nico etaria for two
Years now uh bless your heart Conor but the last man in is Nico and nobody else is talking about Nico because really nothing to talk about with Nico he had some PR so you should probably just take a shot at him for Old Time sake for posterity uh yeah
Bet so you said 28 under was your pick first round leader you had a couple guys I’m Gonna Keep it pretty close here I’m gonna say minus 31 I think the weather will be fine and I do think that uh the first round leader will be Colin
Morawa weird I he’s to I’ll stick I’ll stick with the 28 um I’m gonna say I’m gonna say Victor havland wins and I’m gonna say oar is the first round leader okay I think my outright winnner is gonna be Klay I just I have this weird feeling that Klay is just gonna
Get blistering hot shoot 65 65 6565 and just make it make it like the most boring snooze Fest of a of a birdie bar that we’ve ever seen But if it wins me money it wins me money well and on the bright side too he’ll be warm because
He’ll just be finishing up at the sentury when we’re teeing off at the Sony next week so yeah and that’s on a whole different Island so we might not even see him oh man it is good to be back though yep we will see you next week for the
Sony Open at wly Country Club on aahu one Island over from Connor coflin I am boc prer join us next time on in between media the 19th Hole as always live You
