In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Steve Schirmer rides solo to preview the 2024 Sentry on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Steve pulls up the Google Earth imagery to take you on a tour of the Plantation Course and the types of holes each player will face. Then he previews what types of players and skillsets he favors for the 2024 Sentry using the tools available on DataGolf.
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This episode of the golf ging podcast and the sports ging podcast network is presented by Hall of Fame bets the sports betting research platform for parlays player props and gam lines download the Hall of Fame bets app or the hofb bets.com use code to sgn and
Get 50% off your first month and start making smarter bets today all right DG welcome back to the golf gambling podcast uh it’s just me Steve Shermer here uh Happy New Year’s City Eve to everybody bosson Capper unfortunately is on the IR right now he woke up apparently with uh what he says
Is strep throat uh he has no voice uh I’m going to chalk it up the fact that he probably had a little too much fun had New Year’s Eve last night so you just got me uh first tournament of the Year C the century of Champions and guys
Who played good too uh this is a new signature event uh type tournament that I’ll explain a little bit what that means going forward uh it means more players in the field this uh this year uh a little deeper field unfortunately with the divide and golf though you’re
Not getting all the best players but uh it’s new you know more guys to game line I think this is going to definitely help the positional market usually with only 35 guys positional Market is pretty junk you’re usually just limited top fives and top 10 uh I saw you know a you know
Perusing some top 20s this week and there’s actually not some bad pricing maybe we’ll get a little bit of good value there with some of the guys down the board but uh just me so with the previews this year uh I noticed last year I started to incorporate a little
More visual cues I started doing more screen sharing of Google Earth I started started doing you know going through some of the data golf stuff that I look at and walking through my process there I’m going to try doing that more this year so if you’re listening through
Podcast medium thank you for the download obviously if you’re watching on YouTube right now please give us a download it definitely helps and give us a rate review too but you know I I think these previews this year are going to help you more if you’re watching on
YouTube so I’ll walk you through you know the course I’ll walk you through some interesting holes some features of it and then we’ll go over uh what I’m be looking for uh at this tournament and every other tournament uh this year so uh we’ll do that after we do our first
Outre but first why don’t we go over the field first so this is uh the century is a signature event and if you’ve been living under a rock uh it seems like the PJ tour has been doing several different iterations of their schedule to try and drive interest and
Make sure the best players on their tour all play at the same place and you know it worked for a little bit last year they had it was called the uh elevated events uh but they were all really condensed together so what they’re trying to do more is spread them
Out during the year and have a couple other regular tournaments uh in between so but we’re starting right now with the century which is a signature event and what that means is anybody finished inside the top 50 in last year’s F cup automatically has an exemption into this
Previously it was just winners only you were an exclusive Club if you won the prior year you were able to get into this tournament now it’s anybody who finished inside the top 50 whether they won or not it also is still allowing though per tradition anybody who had won
Last year on the pj2 to gain entries so guys like Eric vanro royan uh who won in the fall did not finish inside the top 50 he is here uh what that means though is a guy like uh Justin Thomas who did not win last year and did not finish
Inside the top 50 he’s not here that’s not that’s not a big surprise going forward though there’s going to be some sponsors exemptions though he is definitely going to get in he also could get in if he qualifies I think with the top it’s called the next 10 uh in those
Other events if he is the highest score I think during those stretch of tournaments he’ll play uh if he’s within the top I think maybe 30 in the world or I don’t know they’re they’re they’re just kind of making the stuff as they go along but what’s kind of damning is well
I mean everybody is here for the most part you know you got your Scotty shefflers you got your Patrick klay’s Ander shafley Jordan speeds uh you know I mean the Heavy Hitters who was remaining on the PJ tour they are here the one guy who is not here which I
Think really puts a ding on this thing is probably the most you know the guy who moves the needle the most on the PJ right now uh that’s Roy maroy you know very polarizing guy but he uh you know listen he’s one of the guys who still
Drives viewers ship and the PG T right now listen they’re under siege they didn’t get a deal done with the piff at the December 31st deadline so their future still uncertain will they go forward with them will they not will they continue to poach players we’ll see
But I think what they really need to do to at least give the public perception that they are still the best tour out there is when you have these Signature Events they all need to be there and yes Roy maroy has usually skipped kaaloa he usually
Takes a little bit more time before he goes over the Middle East swing but there’s plenty of guys in this field who usually play in the Middle East who are here and I think this speaks volume to that his omission and his choice to not play in this
Tournament and which where the you know the first signature event of the new iteration of the schedule I think it’s a bad look for the PJ t uh it’s his choice and honestly I don’t blame him but they really are trying to get momentum and get a little bit of momentum on their
Side at this point and the fact he’s not here at caloa it it it speaks volumes and it’s not a great look uh for the PJ T but everybody else is here uh there’s plenty of good guys to gamble on this week uh why don’t we take our first ad break and
Then we will go over the golf course so all right uh let’s first talk about Underdog fantasy so Underdog fantasy has a way to play alongside your favorite fantasy players all season long you got the NFL NBA NHL college basketball and college football too even golf as well
They got some higher and lowers on birdies pars scores Etc you can do every single week so you simply pick higher or lower and all your favorite players fantasy stats and cash in unfortunately for golf They have not released uh any of the uh props on Underdog yet
However um I would probably anticipate given some of the weather conditions and how easy the scoring is I would probably take the um the Moors the highers I’m pretty pretty much every single proper you can find over on Underdog so watch along make your picks and make a little
Cash over on underdogs mobile app or website Underdog fantasy.com when you sign up with the promo code sjpn Underdog will double your first deposit up to $100 that’s Underdog fantasy promo code sjpn okay um I’m gonna share my screen now I really hope this works sometimes I
Get some bandwidth issues if I notice that uh the bandwidth is getting a little wonky with this I’ll shut it off and I’ll just have to describe the golf course to you but listen this is capala y’all have seen it a lot before you’ve seen it every if you’re a big fan
Of the PJ sewer this is probably one of your favorite uh tournaments to watch every single year just because listen you’re you’re like me you’re stuck in the cold right now I’m in my uh Studio garage right now is probably about 50 degrees I look a lot warmer than I
Actually am right now uh but it’s nice uh you know looking out at Hawaii with the oceans here Mark Ral thing just spit out all these Hawaii stats and see the hump whales migrating it’s it’s a lovely tournament and even though I don’t really like the fact that everybody can
Kind of just get into this thing now I like that was just all winners before it’s still the first tournament back you got great field it’s really good shots even though these guys kind of light this place up now and I’ll explain why they light this place up
More in a little bit it’s a great watch so why don’t I start sharing my screen so let’s get kaaloa up and running uh let’s bring it up and let’s hope the internet doesn’t really conch out here or else we’re going to have to figure out uh something with that here we go
Okay so this is kaaloa in all of its glory and this is a core and cruncha design it first opened in in uh 1991 it started hosting the century tournament champions in 1999 it’s been hosting ever since there and and this is a just a wonderful fantastic piece of
Property obviously if you’ve seen this tournament before it it’s built on the side of a mountain uh the elevation change I think from top to bottom I think the high point of the property is whole number six here it’s about 335 ft and it plays all the way down to the
Coastline here at about 75 ft so it’s about 225t at elevation drop here um we’ll go over the proximity buckets a little later but you know that just looking at that and taking that if at uh fair value it’s a little misleading because you know you have a lot of down
Dramatic down Hill shots where you got to make a two three Club you know maybe a one two three Club adjustment uh where you have a lot of uphill shots where you know yeah it’s a shorter Par Four but you know if you’re into the wind and
You’re have a you know the fairways about 65 feet above you you’re not getting a lot of roll out there but you know players start out first T here they go down about 120 feet in elevation so I have this push pin right here about 312 here that is where there’s um start
There’s a really big slope here and because of how far the ball goes now I mean a lot of guys just hit you know Freewood but even here it’s really hard to control your ball once a hits here and most t- shots end up in the rough
Down here but they still is setting up about 150 yard shot into the green you know yeah it’s 520 but they’re hitting wedges they’re hitting nine irons it’s you know even though it’s 520 you know because they get a lot of roll out here it’s a little shorter
Approach that then they play the long Par 3 second along the coast here uh the prevailing East Northeast win though gives these guys a little bit of a helping Breer I would say probably plays more like 180 190 uh especially if the wind is probably about you know 15 20
Miles per hour then they start making their way up uh the mountain here you got the short par 33d and short par um uh or short Par Four third short short par for fourth here uh less than three 400 yards with each uh the third plays
Into the win the fourth play is a little bit of the Cross still kind of into the wi both these play significantly uphill and then you have a really really picturesque par five here only 532 in the scorecard but it plays significantly uphill there’s a Center Line bunker
About 305 here you know and that’s that’s gonna be hard to carry for a lot of guys you know it’s about 80 feet of elevation change up to it so it’s very well placed uh especially if it’s playing a little firm balls could roll in obvious but there’s a lot of room I
Mean and that’s the prevailing theme of this place is you know most Fairways are 50 60 70 yards wide you know you have some p y areas that if you are really offline you can definitely hit to like all of this right here is basically Ravine this is penalty area uh there’s
Several places like this on the golf course but then once you reach the sixth green you’re at the top of the golf course now you can play Everything dramatically downhill uh this could theoretically be driven um you know because this is about a you know 90 foot
Drop and if you hit you know in the speed saw here you probably get balls down in this range you guys can get up and down for birdie here uh seven this is a longer par for 516 but you’re gonna have the wind to your back and again this is dramatically downhill eight
Again is down here it’s 203 however it’s a 70 foot drop so it plays more like 180 185 so even though that’s technically over 200 on the scorecard it doesn’t play like that guys you’re gonna have to adjust for it and then you’re gon have
To go back up uh Hill for the par five ninth um the elevation change up here is about you know only 50 fet but you know guys hit three-wood here and then there’s a lot of bunkers you got to you know basically get around you know once
You H up into the green and it’s into the wind so um you know and and uh this golf course as you just saw in the front line here most of the longer holes either you have the wind at your back or you have a lot of downhill most of the
Shorter holes either they’re uphill or they’re into the wind so you know welld designed there well thought out uh by Corin crot and you have similar things over when you get to the back nine here this plays in b basically a circle your first four holes uh again another short
Par Four but everything is Into The Wind and you know all your t- shots are basically going to funnel into the rough here I don’t really love this hole um it’s really impossible to stop the ball once it hits here but it’s gonna be a little short wedge from the rough here
It’s gonna be Li dependent uh short uh par three 11th 164 here plays downhill very picturesque back towards the bay and then 12 and 13 basically uh dueling ban Jo’s uh of Calis so obviously number 12 is the scene of what BR chamble called the I think the greatest Drive in
History because DUS and Johnson um uh hit the speed SL right here and roll the ball up to about two inches for a tap and Eagle on the way to winning I think the 2016 uh Century tournament champions beat Brian Haron that week but then once
You SW and then you have the wi at your back the prevailing East Northeast but once you swing around back to the 13th this is one of the harder holes on the golf course not the last couple years because hasn’t been a lot of win but
This is direct ly into the fan it’s 407 played significantly uphill like guys can have trouble getting past this bunker over here and it sets up you know like 165 170 175 yard approach shot into an uphill green with a win in your face like this can be definitely a tricky ho
And then like in the front nine you start working your way back up the hill with some shorter Par Four shorter par fours this only 305 here yeah I navigate the bunkers over here but you know uphill that’s the challenge there uh another short power
I hit a a fade off the T and then hit a draw in but when you have a um you know East Northeast wind it’s hard to draw the ball back to the green here you see a lot of guys in up in this collection area down here uh another short par 4
Going up to the three U you know uh uphill here you had K Mor I think end up in this bunker right here you end up blading it over the green made a mess of it this is why he left his tournament and then one of the best closing
Stretches I think uh on the pj2 17 plays dramatically downhill you know you’re at 520 elevation I actually take that back number 17 is the highest elevation at the golf course plays down to 549 power four about 200 feet below you but with all this downhill shot and
If it’s playing firm here you’re only going to have maybe like 165 yard shot into the green um you bit you know especially if the ball is getting rolling here you have Big Driver distance and then number 18 663 on the scorecard however like we see some big booming drives here
Um from the high point and it’s driver 3w now this can create some car crashes this whole especially with the approach out there’s you know a big penalty area here you’ve seen guys come up short especially when they’re going for the flag here most guys tend to bail out to
The to the right over here and try and get up and down um but listen like you know it’s a dramatic hole par five ocean in the background uh plays downhill you know it it’s it’s a good golf course fortunately this is one where these guys just really light it up
Nowadays we’ll get to the reasons why in a little bit but I don’t really care if the winning score gets to be 30 under uh at this point I think I love the types of shots they’re hitting I love the fact they’re in Hawaii um you know to me it
It it doesn’t really matter all that much uh this is definitely one of the stronger events on the PJ tour um I love it when every time they go back here I always get excited when uh you know the season kicks off and they’re going to capala so why don’t we take another
Quick break and then we’ll go over um you know some of the nuts and bolts of this gol Golf Course the nitty-gritty and what I usually uh look for here so all right so let’s talk about the game time app and you know so my brother-in-law he’s down in Miami right
Now and you know he’s got a couple friends who are going to the game uh they’re big Bills fans unfortunately uh one of their friends his flight is actually Sunday night and the game got moved to Sunday night so he can’t go to the game now so what he’s up doing is
He’s probably going to end up putting his ticket up on game time and that’s a great exchange for anybody looking for a last minute ticket um you know he can put it up on there get good pricing on it you can actually sell the ticket and find somebody to actually take his place
You know hopefully he doesn’t get too big of a weirdo sitting next to him at uh at Hard Rock stadium but you know that’s a great place for him to go it’s a great place for you to go if you want a last minute ticket deal it is the
Place for last minute ticket deals so forget plan months in advance if something ends up coming up for you game times has deals for tickets right up to the day of the events he also has exclusive Flash Deals on tickets for football basketball baseball concerts comedy shows theater anytime anything
You really want that can find uh you need a ticket for you can find it on game time it also has the game time guarantee means you’ll get the best price available for anytime you go on there if you find tickets in the same section and row for Less on some other
Website game time will credit you 110% back on the difference and that that’s the reason why it’s one of the fastest growing ticket apps in the country is because of the stuff like this so get your images on your seeds before you buy so you know exactly what you’re buying
And what you can see there and know exactly what to expect uh and you can buy a tickets in the matter of seconds two Taps and you’re already set and the tickets are sent directly to your phone so you just sew it to the uh the ticket
Guy right the at the gate and you’re in so snag tickets today without stress go to game time for download the game time app create an account use code cfbs for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code cfx for $20 off download game time today
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Winning with Hall of Fame bets okay let’s uh bring this back and let’s get rid of uh Google Earth now that I showed you it so let’s go to the GCS a tournament fact sheet this is something I look at every single time uh when I do a tournament mostly because I
Want to see if there’s any real differences I want to see if there’s any changes but just to kind of get a little bit of a refresher about what I’m really looking for and this thing has everything it’s got the par it’s got yardages It’s got the average square
Feet per green uh the ergonomy so if you ever have a question about you know what type of grass type there is I this is something that definitely gets screwed up a lot uh in the golf Gaming Community uh gcsaa obviously is your leader to to
Get the final answer on it so this is a par 73 uh 7,596 yards but as I just kind of showed you on the Google Earth you can definitely see that this doesn’t play nearly as long uh you know this is design the golf course is designed for
The longer uh holes so play downhill and usually with the wind at your back all the shorter holes play either uphill or into the wind but they’re still less than 400 yards so this plays a lot shorter uh than what you would expected this place STI meter uh they running
About 11 uh that’s a slower than pg2 were average they have to get it this slow because this is by the coast you get some windy conditions as I’m going to show you with the weather report coming up pretty soon so they’re slower greens uh average green size over 8700
Square feet this is the largest Greens on the PJ tour this is a resort at the end of the day so obviously slower greens big greens it doesn’t want the 20 handicaps just getting their asses kicked every single time so huge greens that’s why you see green regulation rate
Usually around 75 80% at this place you know you get Pros uh a lot of opportunity to hit from the Short Grass a lot of short irons into large greens you know that’s a big reason why these guys are going so low at this place now
As far as Agronomy goes uh it’s all Berita you got celebration Berita grass in these Fairways the approaches the collars the rough it’s only about two and a half inches of Bermuda that’s pretty short uh it’s not very penal this Bermuda grass and these Fairways are so
Wide that you’re not really hitting a lot of the rough uh all that often this is Tiff Eagle Bermuda though and and uh you know this is a bit of an agamy change from a couple years ago they rebuilt The Greens in in 2020 that year and the greens that year played really
Firm um it’s softened a lot since then you’ve had foot traffic from the resort you had some rainy conditions it’s really St off the golf course but these hip Eagle greens they roll a lot better than the greens that they had guys are making more putts as a result at this
Place um so if you’re somebody genuine for me I just look at General berm stats uh don’t I I tend to exclude all the overseed stuff because it’s a different grass at that point when the premier is D but if you are somebody who really wants to just uh focus on just Tiff
Eagle uh there are a handful of places that they played on PJ tour not many but there are a handful of places they played on the PJ tour that is specifically Tiff Eagle so for example uh you got Sea Island where love the gabber won or Le go I should say uh he
Won the RSM classic last year SE Island those are Tiff Eagle Port Royal Golf Club for the championship unfortunately there’s no Strokes gain there but that is a tiff there is a golf course with Tiff Eagle greens Bay Hill G for the Aron Palmer Invitational those are Tiff
Eagle those are a lot faster and firmer what you’re going to see here but so the same grass uh PJ National for the Honda Classic and the concession golf club for WGC concession those are all Tiff Eagle uh Bermuda greens now there are some other golf courses like I just mentioned
Do have Tiff Eagle I think innburg is Tiff Eagle I think Harbortown is tip Eagle but although those are usually overseed by time to get to the tournament sometimes Bera can crop up if it’s a little warmer but that’s can be H or Miss and if it’s more overseed than Bermuda
Doesn’t roll quite that way but just overall though I just look at just straight Bermuda and that usually gives me my answer as far as guys who are pretty good uh at those places uh let’s talk about the weather so that’s been I think part of the reason why uh
Guy has been laying at this place a lot it’s been the weather condition last couple years first of all there hasn’t been a lot of wind uh that’s the biggest defense of this place the prevailing East Northeast wind that’s what this golf course was designed to play at uh
When with the wind pumping from that direction last couple years though we have not seen a whole lot of wind uh definitely I think in 2022 when cam Smith wenton 3,400 there was barely any wind same thing last year too uh not a whole lot of wind uh but it also got a
Lot of rain letting us to tourament played a lot softer and unfortunately uh in uh Maui in December a lot lot of rain recently uh including the last week of December you had four consecutive days of rain here so that softened up the golf course a little bit but if you look
At probably what we’re going to see this week uh this is on windfinder actually right at Calo Resort you’re going to have some sunny conditions at least today and tomorrow and some wind you’re going get the prevailing East Northeast wind that’s gonna dry out the golf
Course a little bit uh you’re not going to get hold any rain during the tournament and we’re going to see at least one day of all windy conditions uh and it looks like in the after afterno on Thursday and Friday a little bit of win too I would probably say Saturday’s
Going to be the toughest scoring day of them um I’m not sure with more players in the field how they’re going to do the te times usually they’re all just kind of in the morning or around midday so maybe there’s a wave split but it’s only
60 guys so I don’t know how big the wave s’s going to be but it does look like at least you know from Friday to Saturday you know maybe some tougher conditions but then Sunday no wind these guys probably the best scoring conditions of the week I would expect probably four under four
And a half under is probably be the average score that day yes it’s a par 73 you got to account for that but um very easy scoring conditions probably mostly for this tourament I would expect probably uper 20s again under par uh as the winning score so let’s actually look
At the last couple years so John Ram won last year a 27 under he went off at about six to1 um you know he end up being C Mora moraa melted down down the stretch I think he had seven shot lead with nine holes to go uh I was at the
Giants Eagles game and I was hammered off my ass so I didn’t even watch the final round but I end up waking up to this um I think I had I think I bet Tom Kim that year or last year but so John Ron won in 27 under in 2022 you had cam
Smith he closed at about 20 uh 20 to one odds beat John Raman a duel I had cam Smith that week I was a very unexpected result I thought John was just GNA take it at you know first again very easy scoring conditions minus 4.8 was the
Average score that year uh 2021 you had Harris English you had a really good um 2020 didn’t win though and finally kind of out of nowhere won but the odds didn’t really reflect it he was only about 30 to1 to win I thought his odds
Were a lot higher but he beat wat nean in the playoff at 25 under and then 2020 the year that I mentioned earlier when they rebuilt the greens this was really tough scoring conditions that that year they had windy conditions the greens were firm you had a three-way play up
Between JT Patrick Reed and Xander Schley uh um you know all of them relatively towards the top of the board so you know nobody under past 40 to1 has won this at least in the last couple years in 2019 I know Xander won uh I
Think he went off a 181 because I had him for that tournament 2018 I want to say Patrick Reed won uh 2017 I think hii might have won or JT might have won no JT won that year so you know you’re not seeing a whole lot of long shots win now granted this
Is with 3540 guys and now we have more players we have better players in the field so there probably is a potential for maybe a longer shot to win but you know generally speaking the best of the best have usually won this place uh as far as scoring at this place I mean
Obviously last year average score was four under let’s take a look at just you know Final Round Here uh every hole except for number 17 played under par so lot of birdes guys um that’s basically the name of the game uh the hardest round was at ever scor was at 300 so it’s
70 guys are just laying this place up same thing 2022 and 2021 it’s very easy scoring conditions so um less transition to course fit this is the predictive skill set model this is something I use a lot for data Golf and it’s very helpful basically what this chart tells
You is the types of guys who usually do the best at the golf course the ones that you want to look at pre- tournament favor their skill sets Elevate them your models if you use those and go with that and you know this one says you know for
Obvious reasons a very low correlation of guys who are very accurate off the T and success of capala makes sense that’s 50 60 70 yard wi Fairways with 70% um you know Drive acity rates there’s also a lot of holes to where even if you are
Accurate like hole number 10 the ball is just going to funnel down to the rough because it’s just a hard canting right to left slow Fairway same hole number one you’re just going to hit the bottom of the hill and it’s just going to roll into the RO so it doesn’t matter how
Accurate you are it’s going to usually end up in the same place anyway so doesn’t matter pre terment looking at how many Fairways the guys hits you know it’s not something you should be looking at slight favoring towards guys who hit it a little farther just because you’re hitting driver lot everything straight
In front of you so I guess the closer you can get to the green shorten up the wed shot you know that’s a little bit of a bigger correlation um little bit higher correlation actually helps if I take uh this off here little higher correlation of guys do well with their
Irons big correlation guys are really good around the green with putting though so this basically suggests that guys who typically hit it far and go with their irons and good around the green good putting they generally do very well here well here’s the thing though I’m gonna pause and after I ask
This question so what types of players typically play capalo at the century tery Champions and I’ll pause and let you think about it it’s guys who win right it’s guys who are the best of best in the PJ tour and those guys are all good in at least
Multiple areas of the game usually pretty good iron players and Putters or they hit the ball far they’re pretty good around the green and when you get a a very small field with a lot of really good players obviously when the you look at the leaderboard at the end of the day
You’re gonna say oh hey a lot of guys were really good iron players well a lot of guys who putt well pretty good you know did well that week and it’s it’s not helpful at all and it runs counter too when you actually look at how difficult this golf
Course is as far as its rankings on the PJ tour so off the te there’s been 87 golf courses played uh on the PG tour since 2015 Calo ranks 87th out of 87 in terms of difficulty it’s the easiest golf course off the tea because wide
Fairways and you know it just it just hit it in whale away uh irons your approach game ranks 53rd out of 87 the only time it’s really L recently has been challenging uh with your iron shots has been in 2020 when it was really firm greens it was really windy otherwise
Though last year it was the second easiest golf course in terms of iron shots around the green durank 62 out of 87 golf courses putting that’s where it actually is a little bit more difficult it’s 17th out of 87 golf courses these are bigger greens they got some
Undulation to them too um I think this is one of the tougher golf courses to make putts from over 15 feet but under 15 ft if you’re hitting your iron’s really good and giving yourself a lot of scoring opportunities I think it’s actually one of the easiest so you know
I mean and then when you look at the correlated golf courses of capit you get Augusta National and Riviera and like you know a couple other ones and the only correlation I really see to Augusta National is just the uneven lies and that is a that is a big thing like that
Is something where you know you’re not just hitting your stock shot you know from a flat lie it’s you know the ball’s going to be a you know maybe above your feet or on a side Hill lie or it’s downhill and those aren’t very easy to hit so that’s really the only crossover
I can really see August Nation otherwise though um not a whole lot of similarity as far as at least the shot shapes you got to hit or the types of approach shots so we get into a little bit but so from a predictive skill set point it
Tells you that you basically got to look for guys who are basically really good in everything and um you know let’s just look at the course history as far as guys who’ have done the best so I mean some of these are very small slez some guys only played one tournament but um
You know why don’t we why don’t we make this minimum eight rounds play C Mora has the best um uh course history at kaaloa maybe because he’s a god with his irons but he’s not the longest guy he tends to struggle around the green we saw lash in the final round
He’s not the best putter sometimes uh but he has the best course history Ricky Fowler kind of a good allaround game uh Jordan spe he hasn’t played a whole lot there but you know has got a very good course randz shley sunj Patrick Klay sheffer’s here Brian Harmon Jason day Harris English
So a lot of different types of guys do really well here and I think that’s really more important is that it’s not necessarily that this the golf course itself makes it you know makes you want to take guys are really good and everything I think this golf course just
Promotes different styles of play and however you want to score however you can score you know based on how you play you’re allowed to do it you know I think back to that 2020 playoff with Patrick Reed JT and Xander three different types of golfers really but they all made the
Playoff you know I guess what’s the correlation between like you know John ROM and cam Smith and Xander and Dustin Johnson and Jordan spe and Justin Thomas like all different types of players and that’s what’s great about kaaloa is that it allows a lot of different types of
Guys to win in this tournament so I think it’s a little more important maybe to look at well first before we get to the within event correlations which really tells you how you actually separate yourself and score this ter let’s look at the approach shot distribution chart so these black lines right here
This is the pj2 or average you can see from under 125 yards higher than average uh amounts of shots from under 125 a lot of wedges that point which makes a lot of sense you know because there some short par fors there uh obviously if you drive the ball really good you know
Maybe hit the speed slot or something you have have last shots from under 125 uh a lot higher than uh average from 150 to 175 uh and then not a whole lot from 175 225 and then a lot more from 225 250 plus these are mostly going to be uh
Your par five shots I think this is 18% which I think works out to three and a half four shots I think around um so yeah that would be your par fives here the problem with the Pro Shot distribution just taking on its face is what we just mentioned is that you know
Some of the longer shot might be 185 on the scorecard but because they play dramatically downhill you know they’re hitting a club or two different uh same thing with some of the shorter approach shots even they might have to Club up you know one or two so it’s not like
Going to like Wy that’s dead flat and looking at distribution chart and say okay like whatever their stock shot is from this range I can count on that which is basically what most of your proximity stats and strokes gain stats are going to be um you know when you
Look at you know that area you know you got to have guys who are pretty confident with their irons have a good caddy good distances but overall though this is mostly a lot of short irons it’s gonna be a lot of shots under 175 and I think
That’s probably when you look at the course history like the guys doing well there a lot of guys are really good from short range have done very well this tournament because you’re asked to do that a lot here you know hitting short irons into big greens obviously you got
To go low here you know those are your scor clubs at that point so those are the types C you have to do a little better with um and then let’s look at the within correlation so typically I would like to look at this and look back
Over the couple years and say okay like you know it’s a prevailing theme that you know you’re better able to separate yourself on the leader word through your driving or through your iron play well unfortunately how guys have done it over the years um has been pretty all over
The map so last year when John ROM won uh the leaderboard was more determined based on how you did off the T and around the green and putting and really was very random with your iron play I mean in fact John ROM lost Strokes with
His irons for the week and still won it but you know he was great off the te he was you know he had a great putting week um but you know you go back previous year in 2022 here off the didn’t really matter as much it had a lower effect on your
Strokes team than the average PD event uh and actually everything had a lower effect I think maybe because everybody lit it up and just nothing mattered that week um go back to 2021 here better iron players did better that week and putting didn’t matter round the green didn’t matter as much as
Far as separating yourself in the leaderboard off the te didn’t matter as much it was really just all your irons and then same thing in 2020 um when it was really difficult scoring conditions getting up and down was a little more important than the average2 stop getting having really good
Irm shots was really important so not a lot of correlation though unfortunately so I don’t know if you can really use this a whole lot either I mean like I think if anything uh if you look back at 2023 the driving accuracy rates were a lot lower than what they usually are so
Maybe that’s why off the te was a little more important and if you look at 2020 when nothing really mattered off the T was because everybody hit you know was hitting the fairways that week um but your green regulation rate it was 70% still so that’s still pretty high I
Guess the moral is like you’re going to look at all these tools um you know on data Golf and you’re going to try and make some conclusions about stuff and I don’t think it’s actually giving you any answers I think just based on the fact
That this is a limited field of a lot of really good players obviously all the skills isn’t going to matter I think it’s more important to focus on the fact that this is a golf course where you know however you score and you need to score this week
You need to make a lot of birdies um however you can do it as efficiently as possible it’s going to let you do it so what am I actually looking for this week you I mean if I think the winning score is going to be upper 20s low 30s
Obviously I think you have to hit your short irons good I think you have to give yourself as many opportunities as you can um you know to get good looks and as I talked about earlier it’s one of the more difficult golf courses of any to make any putts over 15 feet so
The more opportunities you can get from under 15 feet you know that’s probably explains like how Mora is so good here because he gives himself so many opportunities for birdies over and over you know he’s hitting a lot of short irons from the Fairway you know he can do that as a
Higher clip than anybody else that’s probably why um so I guess I’m G to look at iron play a lot and obviously guys make a lot of birdies uh preferably some guys who are May good putter on bermo too Al although like Patrick Klay I’ll talk about a little bit you know he’s
Historically pretty bad on Bermuda uh but he actually put very well here in his career so maybe just however just you can to just put the ball in the hole and get a lot of birdies really only four I know right really complicated handicapping there right tire great iron
Players the guys who score a lot you great so um why don’t we look at the odds board so dat to golf gives their predictions I have a couple you know mainstream books up they’ll give what they say is a good price and like every single tournament it seems like lately
The outright Market is junk uh they don’t think many prices are very good the only ones they say are a bargain is turn and figure Scotty sheffler at six to1 plus 550 they have it under five to one based on look I mean that makes all
The sense in the world um the name of the game is hitting your short irons really good and giving yourself as many opportunities for birdies as possible and Scotty sh does that better than any anybody it really just comes down to H putut or not well I mean in Albany he
Did and those are typ Eagle greens and what’s to say he can’t translate what he did there and make a bunch of birdies here and do well uh the other guy They Se is a Valu is Patrick Klay uh he’s been very good at this golf course I I I
Read an interview with him recently and they asked him about how he would gauge 20 uh his 2023 season and it’s not that he was disappointed but he felt like you know he definitely left some stuff on the table he put himself in position a lot
To win and he didn’t get the job done and I think he was very disappointed in that fact I I think that actually makes me kind of like him this week uh nobody’s really played he hasn’t played at all since the Ryder Cup uh nobody’s
Played for at least a month and the Hero World Challenge listen it’s essentially an exhibition that guys are going there for basically a free vacation to Bahamas at that point but I I think given canle putt well here in his career he was hitting his irons at least pretty good
Towards tail in the Lash last year um you know he’s not the best from under 175 or so but he’s still a good iron player and I think the fact that you know he’s motivated to get another win you know at least they say it’s a
Good price on him at 16 to1 you know I know a couple of these books are offering some boosts maybe you can get it up to 1821 you could do that uh other than that though you know Mor how they say is a value because he’s the best player historically at this
Track um you know Xander has had a really good career here but again like once you start getting down the odds BS the next time next time you actually see a bargain I mean the Henley price is close uh Ben on they seem to really like probably because of the ball striking
Stats but is Ben on really gonna win this thing I that though I negative Eevee so as far as guys I’m looking at well I know data golf hates the number um I wish I could get over 30 I did find a 28 on him though um Tom
Kim hits his irons real short irons really good makes a lot of birdies finished fifth here last year uh one in the fall he woned Summerland so obviously he can win events where you got to go really low make a lot of birdies uh his one on Bermuda
Before uh you know that’s that’s guy I think I probably like this week uh as far as getting up to a high 20s low 30s number Tom Kim can definitely do it there was a JT Poston number um at none of these books you know he’s near but at
Bet Rivers you can get 100 to one on him that’s close to what at least data golf estimates on so that’s not bad and listen JT Poston was hting his irons really good in the fall um didn’t get any wins last year but came really close
Over the last uh two years he within five of the lead heading in the final round 10 times is one of the higher marks in this field uh obviously has won on Bermuda before a great putter good short iron player you know not the best
Off the tea but you know cam Smith also wasn’t very good off the tea and you know he just got hot with his irons and putter that week and end up winning and you know I think if Harris English can win this probably JT poen can win here
Uh you know and we’ve seen a guy with similar odds at least for da go Brian Haron um similar type of player he’s got a second place finish here I think JT poston’s played here twice I think he finished t21 out of like T 40 guys one
Time but then he finished I think t11 out of 40 guys before that and I think he’s just a better player now so I think that’s not a bad long shot pick um you know some other guys down the card here as far as what their odds
Are I don’t really see a whole lot I think Eric Cole is gonna be really popular again this week you know 66 and one I think you see guy and I get it you know good iron player makes a lot of birdies good Putter and berm you know
You can see that um you know I mean Henley gets really hop from under 175 but he doesn’t make a lot of birdies but you know you know I think he has a third place finish here at least so that could be someone but otherwise though I mean just like every other
Tournament it’s probably gonna be someone in this range here it’s probably G to be Scotty or Klay or even more maybe morawa takes revenge and gets it done uh you know next time but look I mean like these are the odds we’re presented with not a lot of great
Pricing but uh Cam and post are two guys I’ve already bet uh and I’m probably going to add maybe one more on the card I decide who it’s going to be between now and tomorrow so uh so that’s it uh thank you for joining me uh we’ll be
Back tomorrow with uh our picks we’ll get on the odds board I’ll you know tell you if anybody else I picked outright is on my card I’ll go over some positionals I have uh on my card as well and with that happy New Year enjoy the college football playoffs tonight enjoy planning
For this tournament and we will see you tomorrow night for our pick show
