Welcome into the Happy Hour! A whole bunch of NFL talk and analysis is coming your way as we talk to Action Network Analyst Sean Koerner about NFL injuries that could have big impacts on your NFL betting Picks for Week 16 including Ja’Marr Chase’s shoulder injury and how much that impacts the Cincinnati Bengals!. They also discuss why coming off the Buffalo BIlls big win vs the Dallas Cowboys, this might be the best time to bet against Josh Allen & the Bills!
Action Network Predictive Analyst Nick Giffen returns with his latest data on NFL Luck Rankings and who is getting Lucky & Unlucky following Week 16.
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N Okay everybody welcome into the show we are running out of happy hours in 2023 it’s really sad to say that week 16 in the NFL it is Wednesday December 20th brendy glashen Mr Tim kenowski hi Tim how you doing I’m good glash how are you good I like the turtleneck and the
Sweater combo there might be more thoughts during the show about this but I’m a fan want to get that established and I think you look very festive so I think you’re really it’s like the Christmas Vacation calendar that they flip all the books open like you’re
Really building up to the to the holiday so I think you’re doing a fine job with uh with your attire so keep it up thank you that’s so nice of you what a great great way to start this show I was gonna I was ready to like you know jump down
Your throat about something but nice nice pleasantries great start yeah so we’ll see how people feel about it as The Show Goes On we have several guests The Usual Suspects that come to the program Sean kerer for on the rocks are monitoring key injuries at wide receiver
In the NFL in week 16 how they may impact the spread how they impact that team offensively of course and how it might impact your fantasy playoffs it is that time of year we also have our friend Evan Abrams the director of research and media at Action Network
We’ll do a little game of trivia with him bar trivia and then we’ll get Raybon and Stucky before they do the Sunday six-pack for a little game of mix in a water but first we have to tell you that our friends bet 365 present the show happy hour here at Action Network happy
Hour presented by bet 365 bet 365 folks does not do ordinary that’s why you get more boosts with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds and hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even
Parlays they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why I’ll never it’s I’ll never it’s never ordinary at bet 365 I will never say they’re ordinary 21 plus only or 18 plus in Kentucky president Colorado Iowa
Kentucky Louisiana New Jersey Ohio and Virginia gambling problem called 1800 Gambler or 1800 bets off in Iowa T’s and C’s and restrictions apply before we welcome in our first guest Mr Nick gin Gator let’s dive into who is on notice I think we both we both did this last week
And I give ourselves credit we’re not going to Dallas and Miami because that’s the ultimate fraud Bowl so we went in a little bit of a different direction Tim you can go first who’s on notice the Jacksonville Jaguars for me glash and maybe uh there could be thrown in the
Fraud conversation as well you don’t need me to tell you that they’ve lost three in a row and you know you use the word word fraud and it’s you know has the connotation of that you had high expectations at one point and this Jacksonville team did I feel like they
Were uh a popular Dark Horse pick to come out of the AFC possibly win the Super Bowl we know that they have the quarterback or at least we think that they have the quarterback but I’ll tell you franchise legit quarterbacks I know he’s banged up in Trevor Lawrence and
I’m a Clemson guy got my paw behind me right here but they have underperformed no no ifans or butts about it I know again and I know he’s been banged up I’ve said this I’ve watched Trevor from college the pros this guy loves to put himself in situations to get injured it
Seems like you know over and over again it’s like you’re scratching your head with this guy just be safe please the the the fate of this billion doll industry you know is in your hands so the Jaguars are on notice for me as they uh play Tampa Bay this week really
Really tight spread in that one and I’ll tell you Jacksonville ends their season with Tampa Bay Carolina in Tennessee you gota come out of that three and 0 if you’re legit I got to be honest the golf cart thing is still bugging me even though he
Didn’t want the golf cart and then he shows up I thought it was kind of a troll job by him to show up in the offensive lineman got golf carts be honest with you I’m on location I’m in Orlando I’m in the area plenty of golf carts confirmed golf carts in
Florida are a thing that’s still going to bother me for the rest of the year I just that so offensive my turn speaking of being in the South and even better our first guest is going to talk about this division at length I didn’t know that before putting this into our show
Notes the NFC South is on notice for me do I need do we need to care about you for the last three weeks of the season now as in better on individual games individual weeks I understand that that’s the purpose of the program I realize that but just in totality I’m
Sick and tired of this division this week you have four teams in the division of course that are all either underdogs or favorites by a touchdown or fewer you’ve got the Saints on Thursday night plus four at the Rams Carolina plus five home against Green Bay Falcons laying
One at home against Indianapolis Tampa as you hit on laning one against Jacksonville three of these four teams are the unluckiest teams in the NFL which we’ll hear more about in a moment but and I know Tampa is one three in a row so he should give the Bucks credit but
Like to head their totals are always in the low 40s and that’s annoying but I think Baker Mayfield’s had a good year but I find all of you to be so incredibly awful to watch a waste of my time one of you is just going to get
Bounced in the first round by a better team and the NFC I think is down but it’s better with Detroit Dallas Philadelphia San Francisco of course I’m just sick of these guys I’m sick of this I’m sick of the coaching I’m sick of the quarterback play I think it all stinks I
Think it stinks and I’ve just had quite enough so here you all are four games all laying or uh an underdog by a touchdown or fewer give me give me give me something here give me give me some entertaining product show me that you’re building something Carolina you beat a
Crappy Atlanta team last week hey Atlanta you’re laying one to Indianapolis the AFC South has figured it out like Mike rael’s done a pretty good job I think with Will Levis a quarterback the Colts with ston he might matter a lot to what’s going on right in Philadelphia like the AFC South CJ
Stroud’s out again this week they’re overcoming I haven’t seen a lot of overcoming in this division in the NFC South I’m sick and tired of these guys so that’s a good segue to our Action Network luck rankings our analyst grade teams using what’s called luck percentage which is the difference
Between expected and actual win percentage unlucky teams are often undervalued when there’s a large luck disparity between them and their opponents there’s the explainer here’s our guest Nick gfin Nick we haven’t had a lot of change to the Action Network luck rankings but we have a new number
One this week why don’t you dive into who the luckiest teams are in the NFL and one of them one not number one but one of the top luckiest teams is from the NFC South that’s correct well not at the very top not in the top three uh but uh
All right we’ll start with them number four is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers you throw me off here I could just said that I apologize you throwing me off here uh but number four Tampa Bay Buccaneers uh is the is the lucky NFC South team but
Right at the top we have like you said a new number one literally for the first time all year the state of Pennsylvania does not claim the top spot either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia so the new number one is the Cincinnati Bengals and Tim and I we’ve been doing bad beats
Videos most of the year uh since Cincinnati has ranked in the top half in our weekly luck for nine straight games that they’ve played so in other words not the bad beats the they’re the lucky team uh so that is why now they have risen to the top of the luck rankings
And they face this week the number two team the Pittsburgh Steelers so the Steelers remain in the two spot uh and they actually did get a little lucky this past week they lost 30 to 13 but the expected score was 33-1 so uh their luck percentage went up
From 16.6% to 16.9% despite getting blown out uh so they they got a little lucky there and number three in the luck rankings is the Philadelphia Eagles who did get very unlucky this past weekend uh or I should say on Monday Night Football they won or sorry they lost 20
To 17 but our expected score pretty much had that flipped against the Seahawks it had 20 to 16 for the Philadelphia Eagles so the state of Pennsylvania 0 and six the last three weeks Billy lost three in a row Pittsburgh lost three in a row it’s almost like luck has regressed to
Where it should be and luck matters and you say this it doesn’t it doesn’t have the same effect as it does early in the year but you always say that the luck will catch up at this point in the year okay give me the veggies give us the
Suck who’s at the bottom yeah well I’m H little bound to pick with eash uh so the bottom what I said nick nick bottom three the week to week I understand the value of this but this this division stinks go ahead no no you don’t even know the bone I’m about to
Pick with you so uh so the bottom three uh in the number 30 spot is the Atlanta Falcons they’re six and eight they’ve been closer to an eight and six team by expected score but they’ve played a really easy schedule so if we schedule just that they’re still uh slightly
Below a 500 team number 31 is the team that just beat them the Carolina Panthers amazingly Enough by expected score the Panthers have been more like a two and 12 team and they have had a couple close losses uh sorry a four- win team and a two two and 12 team so yeah
They’ve had a couple close losses that have uh hurt them they should be like four- 10 which isn’t great instead of two and 12 by expected score and rounding out the the bottom this is the one I’ve got a bone to pick with you on glash you said the fness South whoever
Makes the playoffs is going to lose I think the Saints if they make the playoffs if they make the playoffs could pull off a first round Wild Card round surprise and win a game here the Saints they’ve played more like a nine and five team by expected score uh now even if we
Don’t use expected score even if we just use their points for and points against and do you some Pythagorean expectation on that they’re more like a 60% win team uh but you know using expectation they’re actually more like a 66% win team now again they’ve also played a really easy schedule so schedule
Adjusting that they go back down below the 60% Mark but they’re at 58% they are the strongest team in the NFC South and by our schedule adjusted pythag and expectation on expected score they’re pretty much the same strength is the Eagles H Nick I’ll tell you take take
The the Saints monster win over New England and throw that data point out the that New England team they deserved everything they got that New England team should have beaten the Eagles remember that that is true that is true that was a very long time ago um to
Think about glash how much hope uh it seemed that we had back uh in week one in that uh slopfest game against the Eagles pretty bizarre to think about but um but Nick so you know glash you done with getting your your your bones picked
At yeah I I I I understand and Nick brings value to the show I just I have a hard time with expected stuff when it’s December 20th but we already saw all the expected stuff regress it’s going to continue to regress in this case upward for the saints that stuff regresses you’re just
Going off this is what’s happened this is what’s happened not what we expect in the long run but that’s my that’s my that’s that’s our wheelhouse and then you come on and tell us why we’re we’re not smart exactly get it yeah so but see we saw we we saw
The same thing earlier with the Pittsburgh Steelers or Philadelphia Eagles oh this is just who they are they’re great they win games oh six it works both ways GL I understand the value as it pertains to betting a team week to week that’s why I think later on
We’re going to talk more about the Saints team and why they might be the right side this week I I understand that there you go there you go I get that but just you know you kind of are what you are at some point but anyway okay the Steelers and Eagles who
Are who they were and now they’re not oh all right I’m putting the kai BOS on it this could be happy hours if we keep this going I don’t try and uh go against Nick anymore if you can’t beat him join him glash hey when you go to Happ hour
With the same people for 16 weeks you’re bound to butt headset every once in a while so let’s be fair you know week four we’re all happy nice nice oh good to hang out with you good to see you how you been well now it’s been 16 weeks and
I know what your Spiel is and you know what my Spiel is so that’s that’s part of the the camaraderie and why we all come together here so keep going yeah it is true you know I the math I’ve just surrendered to it at this point Nick
Nick’s a smart guy so unless I agree unless you’re going to uh beat glash uh kick his teeth in any any any longer we can move to our luck overs and uh luck luck over and luck matchup plus the Saints will probably have home field because the only way they make the
Playoffs is they win the division so so they’re gonna be like the Maron Lynch they’re gonna be like the Marshon Lynch Seahawks way back when when they beat the Saints anyway let’s go to that luck uh luck over gota Move Along here yeah back to your Corners everyone yeah
Exactly but uh no so we did mention number one and number two in the luck rankings are playing each other the Steelers and Bengals that game is a luck over so this game has a luck total of plus 5.01 which uh is 01 above our five or more threshold for
A luck total to be a luck over after week 11 and luck overs after week 11 are 3518 and one that’s 65.7% to the over uh including 5- one this year so if you’ve been tailing the luck overs this year been doing great however the one loss I should say of the
Five- one was when these two teams played each other in week 12 that was a luck over and it went under uh but now we’ve got a quarterback change we got you know Mason Rudolph uh who I almost say Kyle Rudolph Mason Rudolph uh who’s going to be dishing out touchdown
Presence to his teammates here in this luck over uh but this total has dropped from 40 on Sunday down to 37 now 85% of the money is on the under so if this pushes below that key number of 37 if it’s 36 and a half I’m taking it so I’m
Not waiting till kickoff maybe it goes down to 36 or or 35 and a half that would be crazy but if it hits 36 and a half I’m taking it because 37 is a key enough number and we’ve seen the luck overs uh Trend work out really well
The luck overs you know uh you can’t lie the numbers don’t lie but they usually it’s a game that usually smells it’s usually hard to look at and probably why uh value ends up being there Nick all right how about the Falcons and the Colts the Falcons new back and forth
Quarterback s it’s I will say Nick I’m getting sick of talking about the Falcons being unlucky it is just their their quarterback situation yeah I’m sorry the the turnovers the turnovers like within the you know five yard line or so are getting hard Tampa game oh my
Gosh oh my gosh maybe maybe the quarterback change is what they need to alleviate that but yeah this one is a luck game this is the Falcons being The Unlucky team of course with a luck difference of 24 and a luck gap of 24.6% so it doesn’t quite meet that 30%
Threshold which is has some monster splits uh instead it just meets the 24 or more difference uh so unlucky teams in games with luck difference of at least 24 56 37 and four which is 60% against the spread over the last six years however if that team is a home
Team it’s just 28 24 and two which is only 53.7% it’s basically like 1% Edge versus a minus 110 line so not really a strong Trend there if the team is a home team which of course Atlanta is this week the Colts are coming off that big win versus
Pittsburgh though and Atlanta is coming off a loss to Carolina so public perception recent see could be skewed against Atlanta and for the Colts here which may be pushing uh potentially this line far enough in the Colts direction that it becomes betable but I’m not
Quite so sure uh you know it was this line opened with Atlanta as a an underdog I think it was on on Sunday and now Atlanta’s the favorite there’s some negative Trends there if you bet on a team that crosses from an underdog to a favorite and you bet them when they’re a
Favorite so I don’t love because Atlanta’s at home and now they’ve crossed over to being a favorite I don’t love backing Atlanta here Taylor hinei announcement maybe that changes things but if if Atlanta goes back to being an underdog I could get behind taking them in this one would you play
Just Atlanta on the money line or would you want you obviously want a better price no I’d want a better price so um okay yeah just I mean these Trends are against the spread and uh I like making my my spread breaths especially if if Atlanta somehow crosses back over to
Being a you know you know even money or an underdog and to be clear you prefer hinei ah you know it’s tough for me uh Shawn may have a better opinion on that but Ritter Atlanta’s been really good at moving the ball they’ve just as Tim alluded to struggled in the Red Zone
Mightily turnovers settling for field goals uh fourth down failed conversions so that’s why they’re so unlucky they can move the ball they just haven’t been able to finish out the possessions I don’t necessarily think I prefer hinei I think it’s close to a wash uh which is
Why I still want to get Atlanta back to being an underdog here okay very good couple more uh from you Nick luck unders that meet the criteria yeah we’ve got two luck unders that are below minus 7.5 which can throw a reverse signal and go towards the over however the two we had
Last week did stay under uh but the first one is Washington versus New York Jets has a luck total of minus 8.8 and I don’t mind the under here the Jets defense is good enough that they can slow down this Commander’s offense which while they do throw a lot they
Also turn the ball over a lot uh and and so I think the Jets can make it difficult on the commanders and the Jets offense is so bad that you know the commanders defense which is also so bad may actually have a chance at just uh
You know holding them to to fewer points here uh Miami New York Jets went under last week under the total and they went under the expected score total so even though it was 30 to nothing the expected score was only 26 to nothing for Miami yes the Jets expected score
Was a bagel zero that’s how bad they were against Miami now uh I I do think this is a spot we could look at taking the under but again we always want to be sensitive price sensitive on the totals and then the last one we have I’m kind
Of staying away from this one it does involve Miami that’s the Miami Dallas game this has a luck total of minus 9.8 but I think this is the one that Falls more in a reverse signal territory we got two high-powered offenses that are going to be tough to stop we could see a
Total shootout here between Dak Prescott to aaoa uh it’s going to be a a potentially a high powerered offensive shootout so this is one where the luck total of minus 9.8 may fall into that reverse signal territory okay yeah Nick just to say you know um I find it
Interesting that you we talked about this reverse signal where you know it’s outside of The Sweet Spot I think it was seven and five yeah for the luck total so it it uh it must feel hard for difficult for you to say you know what I’m gonna like you know Go reverse
Reverse especially on that uh Jets uh commanders game yeah uh it is hard to Go reverse on the reverse but it’s still like when I give the luck unders trend for the whole year these games still fall into that luck under it just so happens that really late in the season
There tends to be that reverse signal but not you know some of those games still go under so you you just kind of need to evaluate each game on its own merits whether you think it’s a real luck under or reverse luck under at this point with these super negative uh luck
Totals I would imagine too for the Miami Dallas game you got to keep an eye on Tyreek got to keep an eye on Wadd I think wd’s fine he’ll play and I think Tyreek probably does too but Tyreek Hill I think the reporting is he will not practice uh he did not practice
Today and Status remains uncertain that’s a big deal right as it pertains to under definitely uh you know Tyreek with his explosive playability uh would very much affect the the total you know Nick’s talking uh we we talk luck overs luck unders and we then we add another element here real luck is
This is this real luck so that’s yeah it might be too much luck for me to comprehend that’s a lot but you do do a good job and and I will say you’re a good sport uh letting us uh beat on you a little because you because the scoreboard says usually we’re wrong
Well I would like to take credit because I think when we go back and forth like this it gets more out of Nick and it reveals more about his data model so you’re welcome yeah when when you give me when you guys give me the hard time
We get really awesome things like you two looking like clowns and uh you know that kind of stuff so he’s never gonna I would I would make since we’re uh you know Betting Company Entertainment Company i’ I’d make a a bet 365 side bet with the on the Saints if they make the
Playoffs winning their first round game oh winning outright oh okay winning their first round game the Wild Card round Nick probably has a dart board with Tim and Ice heads probably mine’s bigger and he just throws darts at it when he gets off his segment that’s right Nick Nick giin you have a
Wonderful holiday season you guys as well we’ll talk to you next week thanks for the time absolutely see you guys okay thank you Nick appreciate it and we’re about to bring on h Sean kerer here but first I want to let you know if you want to hang out with Nick and Sean
Ker we’re about to talk to we’re having a two Day event in Hoboken New Jersey for Wildcard Weekend at the shepher and the knucklehead RSVP with the link uh the link will be in our YouTube description for you to rsbp RSVP gets you free entry and drinks yeah you know
Stucky will be there so you know that always helps things we’ll sweat out some bets on Saturday and then the favorites will be doing their podcast live after the games wrap up on Sunday so with that said I already teased it we got to bring Sean C in talk about some notable injury
News let’s take three wide receivers Chris alave sounds like he’s going to play Jamar chase sounds like he’s going to be out and in the middle there is Michael Pitman who is legit questionable as uh kerer mentioned in our little pre-show meeting here all right kerer let’s bring you in fantasy playoffs
Apologize if this is a sour subject for some of the people watching here um but this is how it is these things matter and these these receivers mean something to the point spread as well so I’ll let you kick it off here with Chris alive of
The New Orleans Saints a team that is uh already been talked about uh quite a lot uh in the early goings of this show so this one definitely isn’t sour news because like you said uh he’s expected to play so if you have Chris alave you
Know fire him up as a top 25 wide receiver he does carry some you know risk of an in-game setback uh it is an ankle injury sometimes those can be tricky but it sounds like he’s good to go uh and this is a pretty good matchup
You know the Rams have allowed the third most yards per game on pass attempts 15 plus yards downfield opposing teams love to pick on quarterback Darion Kendrick of the Rams and I would expect them to do that here with Chris alve I mean he’s a very talented downfield receiver so
This is a good spot for him olave’s status didn’t matter when it comes to Derek Carr you’re probably not playing him anyway I know he had a good game last week but if you’re St starting Derek Carr and one quarterback leaves in the playoffs you have bigger issues um
How did you how did you get here is the question how did you how did you get this deep yeah no I I have him in a dynasty League where you know there’s no one available and you start two quarterbacks that’s different but in a league where you’re starting one
Quarterback do not play him no matter what uh if something were to happen to La like he has an in-game setback or something like that rased fed would be in play as a wide receiver three um you know he’s similar to La where he’s a good downfield threat so I think he
Could take advantage of this matchup but as of now it sounds like a is good to go so he should be a top 20 top 25 option tomorrow night okay what about Pitman because this is the the the legit questionable uh candidate for this week I I really
Like that I wish the league would adopt that terminology uh and I would let you coin that phrase but where are you at with Pitman and what he means to the Colts as giin highlighted before earlier in the show he he likes Atlanta but that would not help Nick giin in the sense
That if pitman’s a go you might not be getting that Atlanta Underdog price right yeah so you know ever since NFL got rid of probable uh you know everyone’s questionable sometimes they can be probable he’s like I said legit questionable um and he’s worth you know
One to one and a half points against the spread and the total and the Colts are dealing with that both Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss are legit questionable too so this whole team is a mess to project right now uh if Pitman is able to suit
Up I mean he’s going to be a top 10 option if you have him you’re playing him um and it’d be a boost for Gardner muu mchu similar to Derek Carr doesn’t really matter Pitman status you shouldn’t be playing him anyway um but you know if Pitman is held out Josh DS
Uh should be startable in the fantasy playoffs you know he’s going to be a top 30 uh option at wide receiver so a high-end wide receiver three uh even more valuable in tpr formats I think his reception prop would be around four and
A half um so I think he’s going to be a very safe option doesn’t have as much touch on upside but with Pitman out you know that’s 13 targets for grabs so you know Josh DS would be a guy that uh I would say is
Now a must start in fantasy if Pitman is ruled out and uh just regarding Pitman there saying that he’s worth you know a point to a point and a half against the spread into the total is that a recent development because I think you know uh
I I didn’t put Pitman in that class um from my eyeball test but you know I’ll defer to you obviously yeah so when it comes to you know value against the spread it’s it’s not so much how you’d rank him across all the other receivers in the league it’s how important he is
Of the team so he sees such a massive Target share and He commands so much attention from the defense he does open up for other players Josh DS is great you know he’s a talented rookie but he he does benefit from Pitman attracting a coverage way you know they have like 37
Tight ends they’re all like below average so not many people can step up in his absence so for Pitman uh he is really a talented receiver but it’s the drop off between him and everybody else is why he’s you know so valuable against the spread this is from the Colts about
An hour ago today’s walkthrough they didn’t practice they had a walk through Michael Pitman was listed as a limited participant there you go legit limited participant legit on a on a on a walkth through whether it was a legit walk through becomes a question too right right legit practice who knows um but
Thank you for clearing that up about Pitman I think that’s a good point I I definitely missed that um you know it’s not necessarily where you would rank your wide receivers it’s about the drop off and relativity relativity to their team how about a guy that unquestionably
Has some Worth to the point point spread Jamar Chase Cincinnati Bengals they’re currently laying two at Pittsburgh here uh tell me about Jamar Chase yeah so Chase is probably worth around point and a half to two points against the spread um clearly more valuable than Pitman but
Um unlike Pitman you know Chase has very talented receivers surrounding him so you know T Higgins is a you know one of the top receivers in the league Tyler Boyd uh not so much this year but still two receivers that are more than capable to step up um with Chase you know
Expected to miss this game um you know that when it comes to Fantasy there is a ripple effect here I think Jak Browning who only Brock Pie has more fantasy points over the last three weeks Than Jake Browning I think think we might have to sit him this week because
Without chase you know that’s one less uh weapon to throw to uh Browning’s been leaning a ton on his pass catchers getting a lot of yards after the catch and Chase has been averaging 35 yards after the catch per game with Browning onter Center so that’s that’s going to
Be a huge loss and if you remember Browning’s first start was against this very Steelers defense and he struggled um so I have him closer to like qb1 19 this week so I know he’s probably one you that you know the last three weeks single-handed but um I would lean
Towards sitting him uh if if you want to be ride or die and throw him out there go for it but I have a little bit lower in my rankings this week as a result um and you know T Higgins becomes a much safer wide receiver three option I think
They’re going to Target him even more here um and Tyler Boyd gets a it gets a boost here but still he hasn’t been good enough to really throw out there as a wide receiver three so I probably only playing him in deeper leagues but the
One guy that I think is going to be sneaky here is tight end Tanner Hudson who has been a beast with Jake Browning under Center I mean Browning has targeted him 32% of the time he’s out there running a route the only thing is he hasn’t been getting much playing time
Um so we saw after Chase went down last week his playing time uh saw you know increase he he almost ran around on 50% of Browning’s dropback so he might be the one that actually gets the biggest boost in terms of playing time and even Target rate if that’s even possible so
Tanner Hudson end up catching five six balls here and he’s in play as like a sneaky uh tight end streamer this week for somebody that’s hurting at that position oh what a surprise I got Dalton concade questionable I just looked it up Hudson’s available I mean I know no one
Cares about my team but what a blessing I get to do this show and get that little nugget to me I hope none of my friends are watching but you know be good for yeah you better add him right now wait go go add him I will yeah go I
Gota go out you you cook okay ker speaking of questionable legit questionable or out are you attending that favorites event in January are you gonna be there I I am legit probable I am likely oh yes a pretty big event that they did a few weeks ago so you better you know
They have they have a high they have a high bar that they set from that last one I will be there are you gonna be there I don’t know I’m I am legit questionable oh you’re a legit question okay yeah yeah yeah I am legit um
Upgraded to in I’m in I booked I booked my trip today yeah so I’m in cool uh that’s it ker have a great Christmas great holiday season and we will talk to you again next week hopefully yeah hopefully thanks you too questionably all righty happy hour continues we work our way to what
Isely the game of the year at this stage the two favorites in each conference Baltimore and San Francisco Fran now at minus 52 at bet 365 opening line with San Fran minus 4 uh we welcome in our friend the bar trivia host weekly here on Happy Hour
His name is Evan Abrams the director of research and media at Action Network Evan I got to tell you I didn’t haven’t said this to Tim yet I am down in uh Florida where the happy hour does start a little bit earlier so I am feeling in
The happy hour Spirit even more so than usual so I look forward to this week’s trivia a question I feel trivia ready with the palm trees and the Sunshine even though it doesn’t doesn’t present itself right now it looks great it looks beautiful say it’s it’s o’clock somewhere that’s what they say in
Florida so I I wanted to do the show outside but right now little chilly little cloudy but anyway no one cares what’s this week’s trivia question before we get to Su get to some Bart Trend all right well seven Standalone games this week uh I don’t think we’ve
Ever seen that before so enjoy the week it’s going to be amazing but probably game of the week like you said Niners Ravens so trivia there Lamar 11-2 against the spread as an underdog in his career regular and post I’m asking you and the chat who are the two
Quarterbacks he didn’t cover against as an underdog yes it’s not one man it is two different quarterbacks that he didn’t cover against while as an underdog for Lamar that is the question so we will get back to that with a trend at the end um but answer in the chat
Everybody answer in the chat fire away all right let’s just keep rolling here while you guys think about that so let’s talk about the betting markets and go into Thursday Night Football oh my so it seems to be that nobody wants to bet on the Saints because right now the Rams
Ticket percentage at home on Thursday Night Football is tremendous you can see the updated number below me on the screen but for reference 82% is the record for any team this season it was done three times and 92% that is The Benchmark for night games in the last 20
Years and for any game in the last 20 years so 92% which looking for 82% this year but right now as you can see below oh boy the Rams anything guys that’s not good news uh yeah I’m I’m on the Rams um okay yeah um listen I’m not a believer
In the um New Orleans Saints we have Raybon coming up after and I have to give him a piece of my mind about that because he is the one that has kind of uh brainwashed me into thinking that uh the Saints are no good he’s tried to
Fade them the last two weeks it hasn’t worked out so I thought I was getting ahead of everything you know uh I was you know raybon’s a sharp guy so I was trying to be like okay is rayon gonna go back to the well if he doesn’t I’m not
Scared I’ll do it and um now that you’re tell me about this whole money situation I I don’t love it because I started to work at Action Network younger in my career because I thought it was a good thing to fade the public all the tools
Thing Tim Tim Tim this year the Public’s been winning so maybe it’s a good thing maybe the Rams roll so maybe it’s a all right Le let’s keep going though and now let’s let’s give you a reason not to take the Rams again so Thursday night
Home teams are just 32 and 36 straight up 26 and 42 against the spread since 2020 now that’s 23 and 37 in Thursday night games as well that is the worst of any day of week compared to that Thursday so short rest bit tough on those home teams now let’s just look
Overall right home teams on Thursday night since 2020 30 and 30 straight up all other nights 99 90 99 99 and 68 so that’s 59% it’s just a very different game when you’re talking about short rest and home teams and basically getting that full week so interesting
Nuggets that just keep to roll on seems that these been working year in and year out night night night if you bet the ramps I think what you might be getting at there um I would be curious I’m putting you on the spot but the so I
Know the Rams are not the Chargers okay I think they do have a fan base whether it’s Chargers or Rams and I think the Saints have a pretty good fan base I I I would imagine they travel for for a game like this right before the holiday get
In get out I’m curious as to what those La teams are like in these kind yeah I mean I’d have to look specifically to them one thing so I’ve looked at field surfaces like we start to dig a little bit deeper when we get this time of year
Just because we have so much more data but it is interesting to consider like capacity or things of that nature when dealing with so I’ll get back to you um I want to throw in real quick I think because the the LA teams historically don’t have a strong home field advantage
That we could almost qualify um the Rams as a possible away team here which would make me you know if we flip-flop the record like he they’re not actually a real they’re not a true home team so you know maybe that’s better for um you know a little reverse brain engineering there
Of why Rams are actually a great pick but as much as Saints spans love Derek Carr this year I wonder if they’ll travel across the country for him okay Cowboys Dolphins let’s go to actually to the real best games this weekend so that is the first game between two teams with
20 plus combined wins but just one or fewer wins versus above 500 teams we would call this the fraud Bowl so I’ll give you two stats Dak Prescott six and 13 straight up in his career on the road versus over 500 team since he was drafted he is 114th of 116
Quarterbacks yikes now for the Dolphins side since 2021 4- 11 straight up versus teams above 500 the Dolphins have beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the bills in week three of last season they are the only team in the NFL without a win above versus a team above
500 in that span 0 and seven so right now something’s got to break some somebody’s got to win the game uh you could find you know angles for both sides but can’t wait for this weekend guys but notice but notice what you did there you referenced Dak specifically
And not Tua because tua’s Health at this time of year has always been in question miam team is a trend yeah yeah this this is the Spider-Man meme Bowl they they just same thing you a fraud you a fraud yeah pretty much the best thing about it
Is you’ve got that fraud game and then you’ve got the Ravens ners game which is kind of turned into the two teams people actually believe in uh so Lamar in his career 80 total starts has only been an underdog of five and a half points once
Prior to this week now that is the Chiefs and Mahomes back in 2018 he was an underdog of four and a half also against Mahomes in 2019 so this would be his second largest start as an underdog and we mentioned before he is 11-2 in those games against the spread now boys
Let’s get back to the the dirt the question what do you got let’s get some questions in there some answers what do you what do you have who are the quarterbacks who are the two people flash okay so again these aren’t final answers this is Tim and I Evan
Pretend you’re not listening and pretend these are not being have a conversation good with it so we discussed when we read the question before we got started on the show I think Joe Burrow’s got to be one of these guys I would think I would think it’s I would think Tim it’s
A quarterback in the division Cincinnati has always given Baltimore trouble hore away there’s probably some spots where Jackson as a dog at Cincinnati plus three plus three and a half whatever it may be Ravens could win um or pardon me the Bengals would win and uh the the Ravens wouldn’t get there
As a as a covering Underdog so I would I would imagine borrows one of these guys and I would add on to this you know it’s hard to find games where Lamar Thinking back would be a dog um so I have three quarterbacks off the top of my head that
I think could would be favor dog against nine quarterbacks in total okay so there you go it’s nine guys all right so I would have three here that I would narrow it down to glash I would be um Patrick Mahomes that would be Joe burrow
And Josh Allen so I believe it could be two of those three if you want to eliminate one glash of that three by all means and then we’ll we’ll spit out our answer this is riveting so Burrows won yeah and so pick either Allen or Mahomes I’ll I’ll pick I knowing the
Stats on momes inside it’s probably a field goal is and it’s probably at Arrowhead I’ll I’ll go I’ll go Mahomes Mahomes and burrow all right the answer the answer is momes so he’s two and one against Mahomes so he has one of those losses okay the second one he’s one and0
Against burrow so he’s only faced burrow once as an underdog and he beat him and he covered so it’s not burrow it’s Josh Allen J one and one against Josh Allen uh just to spit it out the other quarterbacks he’s been a dog against he’s two and0 against Brady one and0
Against Matt Ryan one and0 against Teddy Bridgewater uh one and0 against Russ one and0 against Phil Rivers Baker Mayfield one and0 against Joe burrow and here we are Josh Allen how about that Clash nice job that’s a that’s a Tim win and a glash we’re going to figure it out
Next week push yeah yeah but that’s a Tim win when I heard those three on that list and that was how he put that together that’s a well done that’s a Clap That was sharp that was sharp only a dog against burrow once and he’s
One0 my gut is my gut is they haven’t faced each other a ton injuries my guess is they haven’t actually been together on the same field oh and now that you say it there have been circumstances where Lamar’s been hurt too against the Bengals right okay very good he is Evan Abrams our
Director of research and media you have a Merry Christmas Evan thanks for stopping by happy hour merry Christmas happy Hanukkah enjoy the holidays later thanks up not sure how I feel about that giving Tim a full win and just totally debunking that I was set up to answer
The question first anywh who happy hour is presented by our friends at bet 365 bet 365 folks doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost
Specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 21 plus only 18 plus in Kentucky present in Colorado
Iowa Kentucky Louisiana New Jersey Ohio and Virginia gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or 1800 bets off in Iowa T’s and C’s and restrictions apply just remind that the Sunday sixpack immediately follows us here on action Network’s YouTube page that’s Stucky and Raybon they’re talking NFL Week 16 Best Bets
And think of NFL Week 16 I’m like it seems like this week is is five days of games it’s it’s it it might be the six-pack could be every single day because we are jam packed with football and we’re also lucky enough that we get to talk to these guys beforehand for a
Little teaser before they go out and do their own thing so we’re happy to welcome in Stucky and Raybon and ask them who needs to mix in a water this has become you know one of my favorite weekly Traditions to be honest because we’ve we found some diamonds in the
Rough in terms of you know that bills ticket a couple weeks ago and now we get to decide if um we’re gonna fade the bills this week possibly they’re playing the San Diego well la Chargers it’s really the same thing Daddyo proposes bolts money line new roach bump um stick
Truck sticks the bills and shocks the world oh I get it east and stick here anyway Stucky I saw you log in the action app the bolts plus4 um would that be enough to also tempt you on the money line or does Daddyo here need to mix in a
Water yeah I mean I can uh no he doesn’t need to I could say it I’m actually scared of this game all of my like big better Bills fan friends um are also scared of this game and I knew once the the Chargers lost they
Gave up 60 plus lost by 40 to the Broncos I said I said man I hope they don’t fire Staley because if they do and the Bills beat the Cowboys which I think they do I’m gonna have to bet East stick this week but it is I mean you want to
Talk about a spot of all spots I mean number one Chargers on extended rest Bill’s short week after three huge games against the Chiefs Eagles and Cowboys extended rest short week going across the country means more too later in the year Chargers interim coach bump historically teams performed a little
Bit better the week after firing their coach and I think that’s it’s even more of a bump this year because I think they quit on Staley and that was pretty apparent in that game you also have like an you also get like the element of surprise right you’ll have a new interim
Coach you’ll hear from other assistants other players they’ll say hey let’s do this this isn’t working let’s change this and that’s not on film for the bills who have a short weekend are going across the country and teams are just look it’s a double digit home Underdog in the NFL for what
It’s worth 7353 against the spread over the past 20 years but teams that get embarrassed in the NFL are usually very good bets and teams are never as bad as they looked a week before to put some numbers to that teams that lost by 35 Plus the previous week 75 44 and six
Against the spread past two decade 63% when underdogs after losing by 35 Plus 58 29 and five against the spread 67% when catching more than 10 points after losing by 35 or more 17 and three against the spread those are bad teams right double the gender doogs and
They’re losing by 35 Plus no one wants to bet them usually those are good bets 85% against the spread covering by 10 points per game a lot of outright upsets in there believe it or not 16- one against the spread after September and then teams after allowing 50 or more
Points in a loss 65% against spread over the past 30 years uh we saw that with the Broncos Broncos covered the week after giving up 70 to the Dolphins uh so you should get the Chargers best effort here these are still professionals they got completely embarrassed this is now
Their Super Bowl can knock the bills out I’m not going to wax poetic about this Chargers roster e stick but it’s just a phenomenal spot and and you are the same person who you know it’s tweeted and I’ve seen it come up um over the years that when
Everyone says a team is dead that’s the time you start betting on them and I think well yeah the bills too on our little teaser for our podcast I bet the bills last week in the Cowboys I’ve just been in tune with them I’m 10 and0
Betting the bills this year on our show on Bill’s sides I was betting them early in the year they had the defensive injuries I jumped off and then everyone after you know I jumped off in faded them for about five straight weeks everyone then started to say bills are
Done Josh Allen is done done I’m sitting here saying like this is ridiculous that the bills also you know got rul Douglas made some schematic changes I jump back on the past three weeks now everyone is bills of the team no one wants to play a month ago the the whole narrative was
They’re done Josh Allen has cooked too many turnovers now the bills are the everyone’s favorite sleeper to win the Super Bowl now it’s the time uh that they’re little overvalued double digit you’re asking them to win by two more than two touchdowns like uh well now
That it’s it’s come down a bit two touchdown more that’s not easy to do in the NFL horrible spot give me the Chargers Raybon um you know you still with us here I mean it’s hard to make a case against that there Stucky emptying
The clip uh do we concur I mean first I got a question um because your sweater is hideous so I’m just curious they disagree it’s a nice sweater is this is this is this like an ugly sweater thing where I should give you credit for wearing one of the ugliest sweaters I’ve
Ever seen or were you actually trying to style and I should CH you for wearing this ugly ass sweater um I was not trying to style I’m just trying to mix it up a little bit you know we do this remotely I’m sitting here in my room
Alone you know you have to kind of you bring your own energy here you know like that’s ugly sweater in honor of an ugly bat on the Chargers yes all right we call we mix it in the water for that sweater but I’m G say I’m G say mixing and water for
The boats uh money line only because Stucky made a lot of great points but all the information and the the stats he gave were about these teams covering it’s a 14 what is it 12o spread I think the Chargers could cover do I think they
Win this game no so it’s didn’t work no I don’t think they win either but I I just have a it’s my gut says that there it this game will just be um you you’ll know in the first first quarter too like you’ll know right away the Chargers have
Rallied um and care but I just have a weird feeling this game will just be close in the fourth quarter well we talked to we talked to Evan earlier and he constantly brings up too the week after the coach gets fired part of it too and that’s what su’s whole setup was
Right so uh let’s go to this next one from our guy hey balie Mason Rudolph plus two Christmas week Tomlin rah rah spot not blah blah that’s D bundo’s tagline of blah blah the rahr Tomlin spot Mason Rudolph Saturday plus two at home against Cincinnati I heard you
Snark Stucky does Paulie have to mix in a water no we got a lot of sober participants here uh on Christmas week was that Rudolph the was that like a Rudolph the redns Rind deer reference for Christmas week um has to be yeah Rudolph yeah seen a lot of that but uh
Yeah this is look I don’t know how much Tomlin could be gone at the end of the year I don’t know um one final raw ra spot in Pittsburgh um yeah I mean look if you look since 2019 there’s been 99 quarterbacks who have had at least 100
Dropbacks Mason Rudolph is like I think 48th 49th and adjusted EPA per play you know trabis is like 47th pick it is 55th like there’s not much of a difference between these quarterback and trabis has lost the plot he just Bortles he just H he was playing so borly that it only can
Get better with Rudolph so yeah this is a spot I I Jake Browning’s played well but he’s gotten away with it I mean he got to face uh you know some poor secondaries with injuries and then you know he’s gotten away with some pretty risky balls and now no Jamar Chase and more
Importantly for this Bengals defense that’s been bad all season no DJ reader that’s massive in the middle he’s Irreplaceable and the drop off it’s kind of like what what happened to the bills after they lost D Bon Jones who’s playing so well they just don’t have anyone else who’s really going to step
Up in the middle so what does that mean that means like Rudolph and the Steelers can rely on the Run game here um I like the I like the Steelers at home so no need to mix in a water paully strikes me Raybon as someone who’s into the rah rah uh
Element referencing The Sopranos there based on his tone oftentimes does paully need to mix in water or are you in agreement with Stucky n man not no mix in water here in you know in honor of Tim sweater I think it’s so versatile because you can you
Can use it as a regular outfit or ugly sweater it’s the same thing with you know this Rudolph the rednose reindeer thing you know if you back in the Steelers like I’m gonna do you could throw on the red nose and if the Steelers get trounced again like they’ve
Been doing you could just it doubles as a clown nose so you know versatility um but no no mixing water this is a spot for the Steelers to just ruin in the in the n it’s also it’s also uh there’s just it’s a and it’s a law like there’s the um the
Laws of science uh it’s like the the six law of thermodynamics um that Tomlin has to not finish under 500 so um this is the game that you’ll need to do that Tim can you turn that sweater Inside Out does it have that capability it funny
Enough it actually it’s um it’s like an Under Armour it’s dryfit so you’re it’s supposed to be um of course that’s you know that’s that’s kind of thing it’s like a athletic um so you canar it to hockey practice is that is that a separate turtleneck under it or is that
Part of the sweater no separate turtleneck separate oh oh okay yeah layer up here I’m I’m chilly I’m fighting something to be honest it’s that time of the year and I Gotta Give Stucky too a lot of credit he brought his fast ball today this guy I mean for
For the chipper chipper chipper stcky today yeah fory hear my prediction continue my fast but my prediction is Steelers beat the Bengals lose at the Seahawks uh Ravens have the one seed locked up arrest everybody week 18 Steelers beat the Ravens in Baltimore and Steelers finished nine and
Eight Tomlin keeps his streak alive and then gets fired the standard is the standard that wouldn’t that you don’t think well if if that’s the case and that’s how it plays out could that get the in they’d be right there they probably wouldn’t get in the playoffs
But uh like if the I’ll tell you right now um if the Steelers win they two and against Baltimore um yeah that wouldn’t matter I mean right yeah they’re not it’s not for the division impressive wild card if the Steelers win this week lose at the Seahawks
Win week three they have a 14% chance to make the playoffs all right so if if they got the playoffs they would keep them but the chance start it would not they have to they have to pretty much went out Stucky is uh you know he he gives us uh you
Know laws of science here for a guy that is you know the uh what you the mayor the prime minister of degenerate nation is he’s well educated he you notice he uses proper grammar he says they’ve been playing poorly you know they got off to
A poor start he doesn’t say bad you know everything everything makes sense with this guy he’s he’s he’s firing on all s um Raybon for you although I should have said fifth law I think there’s only four laws of thermodynamics so I should no one’s going to ask that any questions
About that I I think I take your word for it um okay here the bull market Giants money line um Eagles are cooked the Eagles have lost three in a row Raybon um you were on the Giants last week so I want to give uh you a little
Bit of a hard time about this and let you go first are you done with the Giants no more um you know mixing a water here because the Eagles you know like we talk about overreacting here it works on both ways Eagles can’t be cooked here right they’re not done what say you
Raybon yeah this is this is mixing the water uh the Giants are G to get destroyed by The Eagles I mean listen we’ve been we’ve been looking at the Eagles as one of the luckiest teams in the NFL for what the last two months now and it finally you know came home to
Roost they started playing quality teams and not just quality teams but desperate teams because that Seahawk team I call that more of a desperate team they’re pretty mediocre All Things Considered but now you have this giant team that I mean losing to the Saints you know the
Fraudulent Saints last week is that that pretty much is you know they had like a minuscule chance to get to the playoffs I guess they’re not mathematically eliminated yet but they should be um so yeah I could just see I could just see that like this the Bottom’s coming out I
Mean I mean Tommy DeVito’s fee is coming back down you know it went up to 20K and then he it moves to the Saints and then he does the appearance for free so uh you know from 10K to 20K to zero so yeah this Eagle team I mean to me it’s just a
Get right spot for the Eagles it’s just the wrong time for a giant team that probably is a little bit peskier and feistier than they were um with Daniel Jones and no Andrew Thomas earlier this year but uh if there was ever a get right spot for the Eagles um it’s
Against a divisional opponent that they’ve been destroying um you know they destroyed them last year I don’t see many Avenues here for the Giants to win and the Eagles are still the Third luckiest team for our Action Network luck rankings entering week 16 yeah take take your a little bit of
This and use it to mix in your water Stucky mix in a water Giants money line yeah gotta mix in the water here the Eagles this is not the time to fade them you’ll get their best effort here after the past couple weeks they’re getting roasted in on WIP their talk radio for
The whole week and this is this is a game where with the home crowd on Christmas and their defense defensive line that they they could win this game on on their own uh toito will get just be under constant pressure sacked a bunch you’re not going to be able to
Just beat the Eagles by running it with Barkley you have to be able to protect and then attack this secondary which is extremely vulnerable Giants are not capable of doing that throwing the crowd noise just angry D line uh I I cannot see the Giants winning this game the
More intriguing deito money line would be and by the way if the Giants win out they have a 30% chance to make the playoffs they beat the Eagles twice in the Rams um the more intriguing Giants money line is maybe when they host the Eagles um in the second meeting Eagles
Might not be playing for much we’ll see what what happens with the division I don’t know but with the crowd here angry Eagles team and that D line could get ugly and we know how eagles out a lead get a lead with that D it’s it’s it’s be
A slippery slope yeah yeah Tom should dress as Santa that’s what they should do okay let’s move on to Thursday night so now let’s see if the positive hot Stucky continues as we shift gears to Thursday Night Football here’s your market report for Rams and Saints to S
And S team speaking of uh the word Raybon used desperate both of these teams in the hunt in the NFC total shifted from 442 to 46 and a half money coming in on Los Angeles minus 4 and the bets are coming in on the over about
Half the is on the under Stucky I’ll go to you first hoping you continue your positive attitude any interest in touching this game side or total yeah well we’ve had a lot of we’ve agreed on the show a lot so I think maybe rayon and I could disagree because
He hates the Saints more than uh anything in the world I I kind of like the Saints here catching four and a half um it’s they first of all they have the better defense and we we’re not talking enough about uh uh yum um who’s coming
There him and adbo on the outside are playing really well in the absence of vlore lonte Taylor still a problem in the slot which cup could have a big day but their defense they’re the better defense and Carrs played better of late the Rams D is just so bad it’s it’s so
Void of they’re so void of talent outside of Donald and then like Ernest Jones um I like the the rookie who kid from Wake Kobe Turner but like the D is so bad so Saint’s much better defense offense is playing better and then the Rams special teams is impoverished it it
Is it’s it’s so bad like we’ll lose them games um that’s like a a factor that you have to consider too like bra I remember when we were going through their special teams of the preseason pod like they they have like FCS got started so they’re they just don’t this
The russer just doesn’t have depth too so their special teams are really bad but their special teams just if you look from a I mean I assume if you go to dboa they’re probably the worst by wide margin so um yeah I think that this I think the Rams probably win this game
Like I there’s a really high likelihood the Rams win this game by three um so I like the Saints catching four and a half here I hope I don’t think I would really like it if uh RAM and alve played it’s Wednesday we haven’t seen reports but
It’s a short week and they didn’t practice yesterday so I would assume no uh but I think this will be a close game I I like the points and uh you know I did a little research and went back on raybon’s you know action happened the last two last two um not consecutive
Weeks but I think it was consecutive weeks fading the Saints yeah um Giants plus six Carolina plus five and a half but I did to be fair went back even further and uh it did work this is where we are this is where we are stuck we’re here with Tim giving me
An well I mean you start you started it with the sweater so you came at me and I was gonna give you this conversation Celtics end it there just end it there Tim think you you were about to get the season long record I was about to give
Him two winners fading the Saints but you know what I’m gonna just what what have you done for me lately what have you done for me lately I’m in like at at this point it’s like when we do the uh the six-pack it’s like I I just need my
One hit I’ll let Stucky win his three like he does every week and that’s what we’re doing now so fair I just checked action Labs uh Raybon is 0 and2 against the spread in his last two [Laughter] fading so R Raybon are you taking to
Take the Rams minus four no no no this is I I make this L three um you know maybe a little bit over three depending on who’s out for the Saints but um no this is not this is not a spot to fade the Saints I mean this is like there’s
Just a whole bunch of mediocre teams in this NFC like the Packers the Bucks the all the NFC South teams except the Panthers uh you know so it’s like when you’re now you’re talking over a field goal here for the Rams um I don’t see it
But I I am it’s interesting that you know everyone’s kind of betting up this total uh first of all it’s Thursday night we know what happens on Thursday night I know it’s indoors but I mean if you’ve seen Stucky alluded to if you’ve seen both of these kickers kick I don’t
Know if you could confidently uh put your well harder money especially around the holidays on a over here so that that’s all I’ll say about that both of these kickers liable to miss multiple kicks in this game yeah and the Rams by the way they’re just a team that you
Don’t don’t don’t look to bet them I know they covered last week because paddle boo Ron didn’t go for two um but uh again how many times this guy not gonna go for two when he’s supposed to but um they’re not a team you want to
Bet as a favorite the Rams are an intriguing Underdog they they’ll probably be a really intriguing Underdog in the first the Wild Card Weekend because they’re they’re all because the way Stafford is playing and for what it’s where the Saints I also play a defense that matches up pretty well you
Don’t want to like Play Zone against Stafford um so they’ll play I think more men here which they’re capable of doing but this the Rams with that defense and special teams it’s just not a team that you want to look to have win by margin I
Laid the four um about 10 days ago I think because Raybon brainwashed me into thinking the Saints suck I never I never told you you got ahead of yourself here no I’m just are good but it’s not like the Rams are like Elite and yeah all
Mid well I was figuring the I was getting it a week ahead of time because I was figuring Rams big would win big over Washington and that um you know that the Saints would would beat the the Giants and I thought that you know this
Was going to move off of four so I thought I was uh getting ahead of it and you know again maybe I should just talk a little less to Raybon about the New Orleans Saints because I I am all don’t blame don’t blame me for that like
That’s that’s this is not my fault bro you’re laying more than a field goal and a Thursday night game between two mid NFC teams that’s if Raybon doesn’t like the other side of a Saints game I know I’m pretty confident I have a winner I have a winner here yeah bro just just
The way Stucky said even better it feels like Tim is the new Darren Revel that’s what I’m getting no I’m the new re I’m the yeah according to my uh record the last two Saints games yeah all right on that note we’ll let you guys go the
Sunday six-pack follows our show you can catch the guys uh coming up at six o’clock just refresh your YouTube URL and you get the Sunday sixpack with Stucky and Raybon thanks fellas well Clash that was pretty good um you know hearing for a majority of the happy hour
How the Rams my Rams uh bet minus four is not a good pick um still kind of time to buy out of it I guess between now and and kick off of that game from where the line is sitting at but I don’t know if
I’m going do I got a decision to make here as I um as we log off here would you have any interest in buying back on if it got to four and a half with all this public money maybe it’s probably going to come down to three and a half
For being honest uh you know I I don’t want to get vied out you know with uh with with all the you know juice there so you know I might just let it ride you know and then it what it would be it would be good content for the next time
We talk to them and you know because that’s the thing about me it’s not about the betting you know it’s about good content right sure well that’s what our purposes are for sure so Evan said this earlier seven Standalone games this weekend do you have a rotation of
Sweaters that you’ll wear over the weekend or are you going to definitely wear that one more than once are you one of those people like look you’re wearing it today and it’s Wednesday you could probably get away with wearing it again but are you going to wear that on
Christmas Eve Christmas day are you going to wear it Saturday on the 23rd you have you have a lot to think about as it pertains to the Wardrobe no no issue I I I probably won’t wear it again I have um I have three rolling racks
Full of clothes in my room I I have I have no problem with clothes I have a surplus of outfits so I’m I’m not worried about that and plus I I just stay in in my house all Christmas weekend and you know really Christmas
Day I don’t I don’t do much so uh no issue for me there Clash that’s you know again I Raybon Raybon could go screw uh with his hate there uh make sure though you do download the free action app so you can uh get updates notifications on
Those guys bets see if uh Raybon at the last minute maybe jumps aboard uh the ram strain probably not but also regardless make sure you like and subscribe to action Network’s YouTube page so you can catch us again catch Stucky and Raybon doing sixpack and all great things here at Action Network have
A wonderful Christmas holidays whatever it may be a wonderful football viewing hopefully nobody bothers you as you’re sweating out your bets and by a reminder that happy hour is presented by bet 365 for Brandon glashen and all our wonderful Wonder wonderful guests I’m Tim Kowski have a happy holidays I got
To get out of here and go Relax
