There’s a logjam at the top of the table as the EPL season approaches the midway point. Nigel Seeley, Jack Wright & Dan Roebuck look at the best bets and strategies for this weekend’s matchups.
00:00 Match frequency increasing
07:32 Aston Villa v Sheffield United
11:04 West Ham v Manchester United
14:57 Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth
19:38 Luton v Newcastle United
23:44 Wolves v Chelsea
31:32 Liverpool v Arsenal
Well the last time that Arsenal did it was in the 1947 48 season for Liverpool it was the 20192020 campaign and foron Villa Nigel will remember this one 1898 could we see the team top on Christmas Day win the title this year uh this is betting weekly Premier League
Show you’re with myself Dan robok alongside me Nigel cely and Jack Wright Nigel after this round of matches we will know who will be Christmas number one does it matter good morning guys uh no it doesn’t really matter I think it makes it more
Of a is it the stat the stats for you you come I don’t remember that one much so I do remember the 4748 season I remember that vividly uh I don’t just just after the war cold day I think it was that Christmas very cold Christmas went to a
487 very very cold I do remember that one but uh no I don’t think it would matters that much I think we’ve got a title race here and as we’re seeing in this this title race is that The lead’s Changing Hands we week in and week out it’s exciting times uh usually with
Christmas we only have two teams that could win it so Christmas when they get to Christmas and they’re top of the uh of the list or top of the the table then that makes a bit of a factor because it could usually sometimes be five or six points clear or maybe sometimes even
Bigger this summer around we’ve got four teams even with a genine tit was five if you count Spurs which they’re not out of it and we will see the lead at the top of the table changing throughout the the new year and I think we really I think
It’s going to be more important who’s top at Easter rather than who’s going to be top at Christmas 45% of the teams uh Jack top of Christmas go on to win the league we’ve had 124 years of the English Top Flight plus 122 in betting terms um should we just blindly back
Whoever is top next week what are your thoughts on it no not at all uh Nigel’s absolutely spot on um same thing yeah really excited the fact that we’ve got a really interesting title race here with a couple of new names in the mix or certainly W in Aston Villa who have been
Sensational this season continue to get wins Manchester City we wait to see if they can turn it on like they normally do once they come back from the club World Cup and Arsenal Liverpool again I say nipp and Tuck at the top so really exciting stuff and uh there’s some value
To be had and we’ll see that continue as the new year starts well yeah City can’t be top of course Arsenal can be last five times that they were top at Christmas they didn’t win the league uh Liverpool done it more recently title odds City Plus 125 Arsenal plus 250
Liverpool plus 275 Villa plus, 1400 we’ve danced around the title odds All Season we keep looking at the city uh price drift out at Nigel are the better B yet I mean I know that we we both like Liverpool and and Arsenal obviously second favorites at the minute what what
Do you make of the Man City price off the back of their latest um you know game which they they dropped points in last weekend by the way I look at it is if it if Man City changed positions with say say it was Arsenal in man City’s
Position what price would Arsenal be 10 to one maybe 12 to one yeah what price would Liverpool be in man City’s position similar price 10 to one 12 to one so they’re no value at plus 112 everyone just expects they’re going to do what they did last year but that was
A harand that was fit clearly got an ankle he’s got problems with his foot um we think there’s doubts about the team and you know to the goal on them runs that they did is very hard and they’re going to have to go on one of them again
And uh this it’s a tougher Premier League now at the top there there’s three or four contenders five contenders has you know we said about to get and they’re just throwing away leads like they never have done before there’s something not right defensively I’ve said they were shambles and um you know
Last week you know how many times you see Man City two up we’ve what 25 minutes to go at home to Crystal Palace and not get three points never and uh you know I I could you know another bet that we should have cashed with the
Minus two a push at least we should have got there’s no way that could have happened but it did so um you got to put yourself into the position of what man city is and I think everything has to go right for them for them to win that you
Know and they could be really far off the pace when they come back uh from the the club championships and theyve got a European Cup to defend as well so no not for me um is there any value elsewhere at the minute Jack you think the price
Is about right I mean from a villa point of view I mean I know they were given a helping hand at brenford last time out with a red card and they were losing in that game but but just to win it you know just signifies maybe that they are
You know made of of maybe Sterner stuff than perhaps we think yeah they keep winning we know what their home records like that’s going to be tough to maintain that of course it’s been a perfect record over the last what 14 games now 15 games so
For that to continue is let’s be honest it’s not they aren’t going to win every game all season so they got are gonna have to pick up wins away from home we highlighted them uh I think it was about three or four weeks ago just before the
Man City Arsenal games I think they were um plus 4,000 I think that was when we said that’ be a good idea to get on board with them and then even look to trade out so you got strong position that certainly is the case we can see that now at 1400 um I
Wouldn’t necessarily back them to win the title because I don’t think they will um and I think the value is probably gone in that respect at this moment in time they’ve obviously got a very winnable fixture coming up this week which will uh come on to in a
Little while and Arsenal and Liverpool play um as well so um they could well make big ground this weekend we’ll wait and see but um yeah I think the prices are probably about right and as Nigel says you know City are are plenty short enough G their current situation
Position and how they look off I actually don’t think the value has gone I I disagree no I don’t I think the value I think they’re G to get l i going to think they be single figures Viller I think this reminds me of Leicester and I
Think the value gets stronger as the season goes on people look at our Miss 33 to one I’m his 50 to1 I’m not going to back him at 14 to one well again if you put Villa into sort of a position of man say Manchester City or or or a Liverpool
What price would they be you’re seeing that reflected here and if you look at their fixtion list their fixtion list running into say into into April is very very easy they play Manchester United twice and other than that they’ve got Newcastle at home they play all bottom
Half sides they don’t have anybody like Manchester City they have Arsenal the away and Man City way but that’s in April their running is is the the next two months is really really winable their home matches are sheffields united burn Newcastle down to Bare Bones Manchester United not in the forest
That’s their running up until that period of time and on the road they’ve got to go to places like Sheffield United Everton Fulham Luton I’m telling you now they are not they they’re going to go one way they’re going to go shter because the other team’s going to take
Points and drop points with champions league and with Cup competitions that they’re playing as well villa villa are big big contenders here and I think as we go on the season that people will just have that impression they can’t win it they can’t stand the test of time
They won’t last the course and that represents bigger bigger value I think I think you can see them go I think they could hit sort of around about five six to one in over the next couple of months I think as well and we’ve talked about
This before and we’ll get onto the picks in just a second the Lester money came in the new year it it came in Jan and Feb Mar no one was backing him at 5,000 at the start of the Season or in the Autumn that’s when the the big boys um
Put the big money down be interesting to see what happens to the Villa price and let the record show in acally that it was Jack not me that said Villa chefer United was a winnable fixture this is the first this is the first game we going to preview with Nigel Villa minus
530 cheff united plus 14400 draw plus 600 this is Friday 3M Eastern here the goal line is under over three and a half goals as well Villa will go top with a win Nigel well you look at Villa’s home record eight wins this season eight you know it’s eight wins eight match matches
Goes on for 14 matches unbeaten at home all wins as well top goal cup home goal scorers in the Premier League 25 goals the second best defense in the Premier League arguably the best goalkeeper in the Premier League in my opinion one of the best goalkeepers in Martinez uh
They’ve only conceded five goals at home only Newcastle can better that with four so ason Villa on their home form are the best team in the country by some distance and they’re playing a team that have got the worst road record in the country by some distance no wins in
Eight matches seven defeats one draw and only four goals scored so um where do we go here I mean it may look as though it’s a little bit too obvious on the on paper to actually make a massive case for Aston Villa you know but it’s been a
Funny season and we’ve seen things that we make huge cases for on this show haven’t go our way but this is has to be a match for astonvilla to win if you look at sheffields United they’ve made changes in their manager Wilders come back he’s made it they tried to show up
The defense that’s what he tried to do but by showing up the defense he’s made him less entertaining going forward their metrics going forward are even worse he’s trying to get nil nil draws he’s trying to hit teams on the break and get breakway goals so defensively
They’ve shed up a little bit but attacking wise they’re they’re atrocious to here so where do we get the value on as Villa how do we turn this sort of minus what they minus 550 to win the match minus5 to how do we turn that into making it attractive price to get some
Value and I’ve gone back to something I didn’t want to do but I had to on this occasion I’ve gone back to the same match parlay the same game parlay or for old money it’s the win to nil so I’m betting as Nilla to win the game in the
Parlay and under half a goal for Sheffield United so sheffields United not to score Aston Villa to win to nil and that enhance your prices to minus 110 um if you look at Aston Villa wins though a lot of these matches they concede like you look L their games they
Played in their matches at home this season six of them they conceded in only two they’ve won to nil but they are the last two matches and they have been against Arsenal and Manchester City if we look at uh to to Sheffield united six Road matches the last six Road matches
Four of them they’ve lost to nil so Sheffield United don’t offer anything here and I think people are looking at the early form of Aston Villa and looking that they conceded goals you know winning 4-1 61 31 stuff stuff like that now they’re getting involved in a
In a title battle although they they considered a title B they’re a little little bit different in their approach they’re keeping it a little bit tight the back uh they’ve got the pace and the power up front to score goals and that that four that three whichever they
Decide to play here has has got something about them and they get they’re young they’re gaining in confidence week in and week out and I do not believe that Sheffield United have the capability to score here their lowest scorers in the Premier League with only four goals on the road they’ve
Only scored 14 all season which is by far the lowest in the Premier League in 17 matches and Aston Villa uh with that mean defense Marshall by a superb goalkeeper to get a little bit of juice in your price I’m going to go for Aston
Villa to win to nil at minus 110 but on BET Rivers you got to do it differently bet ailla to win and bet sheffeld United under half a goal and you’ll get minus 110 for your money that game is Friday 300 P p.m. Eastern Saturday morning 7:30 Eastern is West Ham versus Manchester
United has been support for United over the last 24 hours or so they are now favorites they weren’t earlier this week plus 155 West Ham plus 165 maybe off the back of West Ham’s fairly tepid exit in the League Cup the JW is plus 265 I must
Admit Jack if there’s one game that I go nowhere near this weekend it is this one I have no idea what United going to do certainly after last week’s draw at anfield but you know no fear you are diving in what’s the play yeah I’m going
For West Ham on the Asian line zero which is effectively Ty no bet as well you can play it either way same same scenario it’s minus 107 last time I checked so yeah on the back of West Ham getting absolutely thumped last night after I put my selections forward they
Uh have drifted like a barge so I just enjoyed the interaction all the man united fans after last week saying they going byol so uh yeah was fun so they can come come at me again here so another fade on United quick turnaround for West Ham of course um but they are
Used to that this season and have done pretty well uh playing on the Thursday night normally into a Sunday so this is a Wednesday into a Saturday and um I said that they’ve been in good good Nick so they did rotate six players out of the side in that defeat to Liverpool
Last night so there was no packar was on the bench James wpr on the bench as well defensively as well aged and Zuma key elements there defens set up were were um Ood was not involved at all Z was on the bench as well so um I think they
They’re in good form One S of their last 10 games in all competition so they’ll take that well um they’re only sitting a point and a place below man united in the table so they have a great opportunity to Leap Frog them here um one defeat in the last six Premier
League games as well so it’s been a strong performance there and I think um winning four of those it seems that David Moes has stumbled across a little bit of a formula with Antonio being out it’s led to him putting Jared Bowen through the middle who’s been superb
He’ll pull United’s defense left right and center and behind him they they’ve got a excellent setup in pakar we talked about he provided all three assists for the three-nil win last week against wolves and also in cudas as well who’s come in from Ajax and performed now
Starting to perform like we’ve seen him at the World Cup this time last year and in a VI as well so um that’s that’s superb and I just think that with United you say you don’t know what you’re going to get they have generally this season kind of shown glimmers of Hope and
Followed it up with an absolute awful performance I felt that they were going to get themselves up a little bit of Siege mentality in that um Liverpool performance the fact they were going to anfield but they did kind of get battered through through the 90 conceded
34 shots in that one West Ham won’t do the same but they’ll play a different setup and a different style so they won’t um go at United they will certainly look to sit deeper and then look to try and pick United off as they come forward but um yeah I just feel
That this this suits uh West Ham they did win this reverse oh this fixture last season one nil that was as recently as May so not too long ago at all and I think they have got the ability to do that United don’t travel well to West
Ham they’ve only won two of their last six trips there and have also only won two of the last 12 trips to London both those were against Fulham as well so um no goal for them in any their last three and only one in in over their last four
Games as well so I just feel that West Ham can have the the makings of this I think James W PR’s step pieces could be a key here as well with with the players they’ve got to aim at and uh that defensive problems that man united have
Gotten they they grow if anything so we like West Ham on the Asian handicap draw no B effectively and it’s now minus 107 incidentally they have drifted a little uh after uh that thumping at the hands of Liverpool much change side as Jack was pointing out um speaking of changes
Change uh in The Dugout for not on Forest 10:00 a.m. eastern um the tricky trees are back in action against Bournemouth at home plus 180 Bournemouth are plus 155 they are the favorites draw plus 250 Nigel Nuno to Santo now in charge what you make of that appointment
First and foremost you mentioned that Cooper was was likely to go the other week and but but Nuno coming in is that is that a plus for Forest do you think you’ve only got to see the reaction of the forest fans on on social media to see what they think about they people
Who watch this club week in and week out over the last is they know they’re much in a better position to judge than me it’s not going to be a good appointment I don’t think I don’t think it’s going to go down well unless he hits the road
Fast and comes out the traps running and that’s why I’m going to have the one of the bets I’m going to have here but I I think that um he’s got B he’s got a big job here to to replace Cooper however much Cooper’s had a bad run this season
What he did last year to keep him in the Premier League the way the Chairman’s dealt with him uh and what he did in the in the to get them up you know from all the years they had in the championship was was nothing short miraculous I saw
Them play in the championship at Queens spot Rangers and they were right at the bottom of the table and the year they got promoted and they were electric they were great they were the pace of them going forward they were a really good side and I Come Away thinking this side
Are going to do well and they went up that year they were bottom they right at the bottom and he took over and done amazing people forget that in football the fans don’t and I think this is a real real tough appointment in a club
For Nuno to go to so I think he’s got to come out to traps fast got to has to has to come out here fast than think he’ll have his team fired up for this one and I think the crowd will get behind him at the beginning they R new manager but if
It doesn’t work out then it’s going to be hard for him just quickly how things change in football now listen like if we were looking at this match a month ago six weeks ago and you told me that bourma for favorites at not the forest who had that unbelievable
Home record and we couldn’t win it just shows you how things really really changed I was so close to to make a case for the the new manager Factor the fact that not and Forest are at home and but they’re record at home but their current
Form you just can’t do that and the problem you have here is that I don’t know how the fans are going to react to the manager I think they will give him a good good start but if they go one n down I think they’d be on they’ll be
Toxic for the board rather than the manager so I think this is a real tricky one and I think it was a carrot that I really almost took to take the not Au foresty on the money line or the Asian handicap I didn’t but what I did do is
I’ve gone for something again which is unlike me but I’ve gone for over two and a half goals in this match I mean we we’ hared on and hared on and hared on until we you know I’ve had enough of it now talking about two and a half goals and
Over two and a half goals and bad luck we’ve had this year and next year we’re getting getting on it and we’re properly getting up back up the profits but I’ve had enough of excuses it’s not the time for excuses just looking forward now not you this season we’ve seen so many overs
Aren’t we but we don’t get many opportunities to bet overs sort of attract the prices this one here is an attractive price for over B you’ll see seen over three goals over three and a half over two and a half like- 150s – 160 this isus 112 for over 2 and a half
And I just think on the price that’s too big we know that notest about their top goal scorer who’s who’s going to be out for a long long time but everyone else of their squad that was decimated by injuries is back so they’ve got ress everyone back to choose from now apart
From their top golf score which is a which is a problem for us but it I think they’ll come out flying here they have to he has to have a fast start he has to get the crowd on side and I think Forest will come out really pumped but then you
Look at Bournemouth and their XG at the moment and the why they score in goals the way they’re playing they’ve got goals in them they’ve got confidence in them uh nine eight of the last nine uh Road matches in for Bournemouth this season sorry eight of nine Road matches
This season for Bournemouth have gone over two and a half goals so only one of their Road matches has failed to see at least three goals scored and in nine of their last 11 matches over two and a half goals was cashed we were on the overs last week when in that tragic
Match you know the lon match which was a forced to abandon and we were looking good on the overs if the game a continuous was 11-1 at the time in the aboundance I that you would have expected that to go over us as well there I just feel Bourn will play their
Style they’re full of confidence they’ve got goals in them at the moment complete change around confidence Skyhigh and Forest have to come out here and put in the performance for the new manager and the fans and I think the way this is set up I think this will be an endtoend
Match and I’m going to go over two and a half goals and minus 112 value play Nigel likes minus 11112 over two and a half goals and you’re right Nuno has got a good record when it comes uh to his first game in charge of former
Clubs Porto wolf Spurs Al etad his last four appointments has won the first one but plus 18 180 not quite big enough for us on the money line let’s get to Luton Newcastle another 10 a.m. eastern uh kickoff on Saturday as that Forest game is uh Luton plus 440 Newcastle minus 165
Draw plus 325 uh Newcastle after Champions League games uh generally we have seen goals whether they’ve had a good performance or a bad performance they have they have bounced back or continued on a good run and uh Jack this is a a similar vein here but you’ve you’ve boosted it with a
Corners play as well to get as a nice plus money pick yeah I did identify over two and a half goals here and the price just got a little bit too long for me to put forward and I was also conscious if it was going to continue to go that way
Then by the time people got to watch and listen to this then it would be a little bit of an unback price so I I put the Proviso in or the extra juice with the over two and a half Loot and Corners as well um if this priced for over two and
A half goals is anywhere near minus 125 then I’d play as a single um but I say I’ve got that back up and obviously this will be recorded as such for this selection so over two and a half goals over two and a half loot in Corners plus
130 the play um I fancied Lon to get something out of this obviously Nigel’s touch on already absolute devastating scenes to watch last weekend with Tom loia going down um hopefully it seems that he might well be on the road to recovery from that but I think that’s
Going to Galvanize luten even more than what we’ve seen already at home we know what we get from them real atmosphere in a little bit of a shoe box of ground the tun Army is obviously going to be there as well for this one packed into that
That away end and this should be an absolute cracking atmosphere as a result of it and I kind of fancied Luton to get something out of it Newcastle again midweek another heartbreak for them another leg goal conceded to knock them out of the cup eventually on penalties
As well so how do they respond we saw them do that in a similar fashion as far as going uh the game against PSG a couple of weeks ago so um I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on Len on this one you can get him on on a plus one
Asian handicap because I just haven’t quite got that confidence in them at this moment in time we know Newcastle could go there and run them run a mock really with the players that they’ve got one thing L and doo is Con seeed lots and lots of chances most chances in the
Box they also conc quite a lot from crosses as well two areas that Newcastle Excel be it Wilson be it isach they’re the most clinical Strikers in the Premier League this season so far in tribia they’ve got one of the the best deliverers of a ball from wide areas be
A set piece or from open play so I think they will get plenty of chances against Luton which certainly lends itself towards the reason I’ve G for over two and a half goals in it no clean sheo for Luton so far this season either over two
And a half goals has cashed in the last three at canorth Road and also in five of the last eight across the whole season six of eight Newcastle away games as well they’ve conceded two or more in the last five away games too so um Luton tent to score goals they’re scored in
Seven of their eight home games and just not make no bones about ad it they faced the best sides in the League City Arsenal Liverpool Tottenham all been to Kenworth Road Tottenham the only one to um to keep a clean sheet against him and that was possibly down to the fact they
Were down to 10 men and having to be a bit more backs to the wall against them so um as I said I think Luton will score and I think they’ll also concede so therefore we only need one more either way around and I can just see goals in
It given the support behind both sides for this one so over two and a half goals there is a fairly solid selection and and then Juiced up as I said with Corners loen three or more corners in all six home games so far this season um
So all eight home games so far this season they’ve got six corners against Manchester City which takes them doing in their last home game I said they played some of the best sides in the league and always won enough corners for this bet to land and as far as newcast
Concerned they considered three plus in seven of their eight away games the only one that didn’t was that Sheffield United debacle which was an 8- nil win for them and Sheffer United still got two on that day as well so that’s just to add that little bit of juice just in
Case that price has gone but that’s my thoughts behind it and that’s the reason why I’ve played that same game parlay rather than the straight up play so if it is back bable certainly go on that so minus 125 would be a play for me but for
The purpose of the show over two and a half goals over two and a half Loot and Corners at plus 130 wolves versus Chelsea next 8: a.m. Sunday Eastern wolves plus 280 Chelsea minus 10 four draw plus 270 here Chelsea have lost their last three on the road in the
League but off Nigel the back of that shootout success over Newcastle in the league cup to get them through the semifinals again they’re inconsistent uh what do we like in the game at molu between wolves and Chelsea well I I think Chelsea they’re a C team
That just don’t know what really I mean what do you make of it we’re almost halfway through the season and you asked me about man united chelse and perhaps West Ham I wouldn’t know what to expect week on week I mean they just I haven’t
Got hand on them at all I mean you can’t trust them with any money you don’t think they put up a brilliant performance I mean everyone remembers Chelsea’s performance against Manchester City that you know that that four4 draw and then the win against Tottenham as well but obviously down to nine men but
Other than that what have they done they’ve done pretty nothing haven’t they they’re very fortunate to get through to the semi-finals against Newcastle where Newcastle side that were just just running on empty weren’t they the amount of football they’ played over the weeks of time so I’m gonna oppose Chelsea here
In some kind of capacity um Chelsea have got a really bad record against wolves they’ve only won one in the last five recent record they’ve only won one in the last five matches here at molu and in six matches in total including games at Stanford Bridge
They’ve only won one as well so wolves have been a bit of a a problem side for Chelsea um if you look at this current crop of teams compared to the last sort of six Seasons or the last three seasons I would definitely say that this is
Probably the worst Chelsea team squad we seen last year as well was poor but this is probably the worst set in transition that we’ve seen in maybe 20 years and I’d argue this is probably the best wall side that we’ve seen in the Premier League under a very good manager a
Shrewd manager so um I think this is a tough test for for Chelsea I I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to bet them at the very low price I mean what price are they now on on the money line of they’re minus 104 on the money line yeah I mean
I think that’s minus money would you trust Chelsea not at all I I I’m with you to me they’re in the same category as Manchester United Jesus yeah we going so well we were going so well anyway uh for that one um other Nigel any anything else you
Want to put this the time this is the time of year that we have to visit a church and pray quite a lot had to make some D I was going to do one Rosary to try to uh to get rid of to get rid of
Our um our bad hoodoo for Christmas and get us G to the winning now at robu invol we’ve got to do the three rosaries ah jeez anyway I said I was with you in terms of the Manchester United link spirit in spirit in link I’m not with you in this
Bet it’s the worst bet World brilliant okay uh on this season nine home matches in walls matches and only two of them you would have lost on betting this match on BET this market and the market I’m going to go for is walles plus a
Half so if we it’s a draw or a walls win we cash as long as Chelsea don’t win the match it’s minus 117 and that would have cashed in seven matches and the only two it wouldn’t have cashed in would be against Liverpool and Brighton and when you consider Newcastle have gone there
Two2 draw Tottenham they beat Villa they drew Man City they beat they seem to raise their game uh wolves as M’s packed out against the big big boys and um you know Chelsea here are coming here decimated by injuries a huge amount of injuries you know we this if you look at
The injury list of of Chelsea ree James is out cherwell’s out the goalkeeper out there’s lots of them going through I they a big Squad but there’s some huge amount of injuries for key players uh they played in midweek a long match sort of an emotional match as well with the
Penalty shootout win and their Road form this season in the last three matches has been really poor lost two Everton 2-1 at Manchester United should have been 6-1 uh 4-1 at Newcastle they’ve lost their last three games and walls at home very underrated very very underrated side Chelsea we do not know
What to expect and I think freshing the mind is that Man City match and that Chelsea M and that Tottenham match and that’s how a lot of betters think about Chelsea they don’t think about the Chelsea that were thumped by Everton last time out two nil or the Chelsea
That really struggled against a patched up Newcastle in midweek and we really really lucky with the 93rd minute equalized G him to penalty shootout so I’m going to go for him here got a good record tradition as well so I think walls plus a half wouldn’t put anybody
Off having a small wager on walls on the money line but the way we’re having it the season at the moment I’m staying a bit safe walls in the draw minus 117 against the Chelsea side that I think it’s overrated and I really can’t get a
Handle on Jack you’ve also got a play in this one yeah another point I think there might be a little bit of trouble on the horizon for chel at Chelsea I heard talk about um Gallagher being sold or possibly being sold in January poino saying he doesn’t want him sold so we
Interest to see which way that one goes um in the coming weeks but yeah I agree with Nigel my thought process on this one is this could be anything and again Nigel mentioned it earlier same rules apply we can’t generally play an over two and a half goal line because this
Season it’s been pushed up so high this one’s atus 127 which I think is a really viable play wolves have scored in all eight home games so far this campaign Nigel mentioned it already the scores against the the bigger clubs in in the league um it was 1 14 against Brighton
It was 13 against Liverpool beat City 2-1 2-2 with with um Tottenham as well I’m sorry two1 with Tottenham 22 with Newcastle um all cash in the over two and a half goals line that’s what we normally see with WS is they can’t score goals we’ve seen it time and time again
Uh this is why this season is so different again another reason 15 of 17 games this season they’ve scored in COA and um the uh hang up front as well have combined well they’re scoring goals they seem to alternate between who scores at home and who scores away but between
Them they they’ve done particularly well scored 13 goals across the season so far so they’ve got a bit of a Cutting Edge there’s a possibility that Netto might be involved as well which would be a huge boost for wolves even if it is just off the bench um but only one clean
Sheet at home which leads me to the goals here and only two All Season which again is very unws like we used to see him keeping it tight unable to score this season it’s complete reversed so yeah very unusual stuff as far as Chelsea’s scor concerned they’ve scored
Four goals on three occasions they’ve conceded four goals on two occasions so again we don’t quite know what to expect from them generally speaking now there’s goals involved they’ve only kept two clean sheets away from home they’ve only kept four clean sheets all season two of those against Sheffield United and Luton
So you’d absolutely expect that to be the case we know that problems in front of goal is concerned Jackson’s kind of flitted in and out he seems to be that kind of Striker that will get a hattick one week and and Miss 15 chances the next um I’ve been impressed with kle
Palmer he’s certainly come to the table and he’s he’s improved and seems to be getting some consistency and he’s getting amongst the goals and assists as well and of course we haven’t mentioned him but the return of munu is massive for Chelsea expect it will take a little
Bit time for him to settle in but to him to get some game time uh in midweek is a massive boost that they’ll You’ be able to utilize him in those forward areas as well so um absolutely looks like looks like goals obviously this is only the
Second ever game in the Premier League on on Christmas Eve the last one had four goals in it so hoping for the much of the same and wolves last Christmas Eve appearance was a goals Galore Affair as well that was 53 against Derby in 1966 yeah I can’t remember that one um
Six of the last seven away um Chelsea have considered in the first half so it might be decent for a trade I was just looking at the um this the parlay for the for the boys picks as well plus 270 over two and a half goals on wolves or
Tie effectively you can paray that up same game for plus 272 if you want to going big as Nigel points out as well though um wolves on the money line I don’t think the worst better at plus 280 got to get your thoughts on the big game
Of the weekend before I let you escape uh it’s at anfield it’s Liverpool against Arsenal 12:30 Saturday Liverpool plus 138 Arsenal plus 265 Nigel there has been money uh for Liverpool this week they were plus 165 ahead of their League Cup win uh last night I
Mean could this be a title decid I don’t know if we think city is still going to fade these are the two most likely to go on and and lift the trophy they’ve not been in a significant title race between them for a few years what what do you
Make of of this game if you if you had a free play where would it go well I think that’s what you um you’ve just sort of touched one of the points I was going to make on there that these two haven’t been involved head-to-head in the title
Race for many many years and I think that’s this is could be quite deceptive if you’re are your stats better or you’re somebody who’s sort of using where we are currently in in this in this part of season if you’re a stats better you’ll be heading to the over two
And a half and over three and a half and all these kind of markets I mean the last 10 matches between these two sides seven wins at anfield for um uh Liverpool three draws Arsenal haven’t won in in 10 matches or 11 matches it would been 46 goals in those matches 4.6
Every single one of the 10 has cashed not only over three two and a half it’s cashed over three and a half but a lot of them matches are when these sides have been seventh sixth in the table fifth fourth well behind Man City well behind Man United well behind Chelsea in
Title races this is this is the real deal now this is a big big match and you know they’ll know what Aston Villa have done as well which is a big big incentive for them as well I think we’ve got to take the mindset of how teams
Prepare for these matches so I I would expect heavy heavy money for over three and a half over two and a half but I I would I’d like to swim against the tide in this one uh I mean we saw last week in the game that everyone predicted goals are Manchester United against
Liverpool and nil nil I’m not saying this will end nil nil but I think they’ll pay too much respect to each other and I think it could fizzle out to be a non-event I think if Villa win which I expect them to win I think a
Draw ain’t going to be a bad result for the two these two sides and if I was given a fre bet I’d probably bet a low-scoring draw one-1 draw something like that I don’t think there’s it’s a cigarette paper between these two sides as you can see in the betting on the
Outright market and I just feel that everyone would expect goals we’ve had a 44 or 55 in the cups between these two as well not only in the Premier League so I think the mar Market may just get really carried away and the stats pters betters will come out and just go crazy
On the stats on on the goals but I think if you break down the importance of this match with Man City not playing as well I think it’s a it’s a I think this is a do not lose match for both sides rather than go out and win it so I would
Probably swim against the tide and go on the under two and a half yeah one one is plus 575 incidentally under 2 and a half plus 123 Jack any thoughts on this one yeah I was smiling a long to that because it’s pretty much everything that
I was thinking of as well I um I actually nearly looked at this one under three goal line was kind of I was toying with and the prices just didn’t quite stack up for me but um i’ I’d done a little bit of uh some say stats as such
For this season um that you look at the big games this season Arsenal City Villa City Villa Arsenal Newcastle Arsenal City Newcastle all ended one nil so tends to be the case that it’s that fear of losing in it and also the respect shown to the other side when it comes
Down to sort of top four title contenders then absolutely does kind of take the sting out of it and yeah you know I mentioned Liverpool they had 34 shots against man united but that was an average of XG of 0.07 so they’ve got a little bit of a habit at the moment of
Just taking these pot shots and sometimes they go in like we saw last night with SH BSO with that great strike from outside the box but more often than not they don’t and I think Arsenal have got a good enough defensive shape in possession and out of possession that
They could nullify this uh sort of misfire in Liverpool attack I know they got five last night but um we’re struggling to see them get the best at an Nunes um salah’s having a little bit of indifferent run at this moment in time so yeah for me similar pattern one1
Was my my draw prediction I fancy a draw or or an Arsenal win in it if anything to be fair one thing I would say well I think that the other thing is here mean I’m slightly disagreeing with with Jack here I think Arsenal will go for a draw
I think it’ll be Liverpool comprehensive win or it’ll be a draw I I don’t really fancy Arsenal for the win that’s my my perspective my sort of reasoning and think prediction of the match but the one thing I do think will happen I think that Liverpool will come
Out fast I think it will be an absolute electric atmosphere for 15 minutes I think Liverpool will come out fast and Liverpool will try to blow them away I’ve seen Liverpool blow Arsenal away inside 15 minutes anfield before going back over time they’ve done it in 15 20
Minutes and I think the BET here is if it’s nil nil after 15 to 20 minutes it’s start beting the unders atus 110- – 120us one that kind of Market because I think once we get on with the game and it goes deeper I think both teams will come tactically more and the
Chances will will sort of not come about and I think both sides will become a little bit more happy with the point so my my betting strategy here would be to leave it until 15 20 minutes in because I think Liverpool will come out fast really fast and I think they’ll put the
Pressure on the Arsenal goalkeeper straight away and and I think he’s the weak link yeah it’s interesting because Arsenal started fast didn’t they last season raced to a two-nil Advantage then got Peg back 22 we’ve seen Liverpool do something similar but Liverpool were in a very different place then uh so you
Got to think of the game State you got to think of the state of the title race as well and the positions that these two teams are in uh the boys a little bit counterintuitive to the recent stats are looking for unders and maybe one Nils
Either way and certainly in play if it’s nil nil after 20 minutes maybe we start to get unders and nil Nils on the correct score it’s going to be a fascinating watch nonetheless that is 12:30 Eastern on Saturday uh Best Bets from the boys before we wrap up here uh
Nigel what’s your best bet of your three that you’ve put up Aon Villa same gay parley win to nil old money minus 110 against Sheffield United Jack I’m going for over two and a half goals in woles versus CH but we really want to know what your favorite bet of
The weekend is oh I’ve not had a look yet I don’t know I just follow you two guys blindly over the course of the Season dear you’re in trouble um do you know happy Christmas in your ass our pres be taking it back boxing they do you know what having listened to
You to talk about Arsenal Liverpool I think under two and a half goals would probably be the I’m I’m going to be at anfield um for Arsenal as you know on on Saturday and and I think you’ve got it right I think if if if there’s not a goal early on it’ be
Play sort of you know n one and a half you know I think I think that’s the because as you say they both don’t want to lose if they both get a point they’ll inch a little bit further away from Man City who aren’t playing because they’re
In World Club cup action um Villa winning might not be here or there I don’t know but yeah and and as jack points out as well you know the bigger games between the best teams this season there’s not been a lot of goals in it so
There you go there’s my best bet on the Fly that’s done Nigel Jack thanks company good luck with your picks uh that is a wrap for week 18 of betting weekly Premier League show we’re going to be back aren’t we boys on Christmas Eve uh for the Best
Bets on boxing Dev got that right Nigel correct excellent stuff uh stay across all of our betting weekly content via at because we win from all of us for now it is goodbye
2 Comments
West Ham and Man Utd will be a Draw
Agree with Seal here. He finally tossed the unders trip