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NBA PRIZEPICKS Player Prop Picks / Bets for Wednesday, December 20th, 2023



Eric Polzin breaks down this NBA PRIZEPICKS Player Prop Picks / Bets for Wednesday, December 19th, 2023

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*PROPS PROCESS*
My process with NBA, NFL, PGA, and MLB PrizePicks and Underdog videos is to show you which lines have the best value behind them. Show you why or why not they will be a good bet. The goal is to give you the viewer enough information to make an educated decision on how to attack the favorable lines that we get.

I will also show which prop numbers we are getting that do not align with the NBA Injury News that we have received thus that day.

If you do not agree with one of the bets do not make them. Know that this is gambling. If a line changes (not in favor of the bet) that means the bet is no longer as good of a bet, and thus probably should chase the bet.

The idea is by attacking the best numbers that we get we can profit in the long term as we attack the best bets with the best EV

“Today’s Bets” Record Since 1/28/2023:
Units Profited = 405
Win % = 60% (884/1482) *12 ties.
(This is a measure of the bets I highlight at the end of the video. This includes all sports. This also includes the Taco Tuesday bets where I tell people to bet 5 individual bets)
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All right everyone welcome back into another props video going to be touching on the top prop bets in NBA on both priz space and Underdog also covering a little bit of other sports as well let’s gohe and get into it so I do just want to start off with showing you guys some

EV bets that we have we have a pretty strong one here for college basketball it seems you know a 56% chance for that one to hit now I don’t know if this one’s going to get bumped or not but all and all this is looking like a pretty

Good prop bet to start the day you could pair that up with another EV bet that we are getting which would be Matthew Stafford for over 1.5 passing touchdowns that’s really the best bet that we are getting right now for Thursday Night Football so I’m perfectly fine pairing

Those two for Underdog we are getting a few more uh good Eevee bets uh we got top end for over one assist pretty much to get one assist there that’s interesting Darren Fox for under 4.5 rebounds DeAndre Hunter over threes so we are seemingly getting some pretty

Good EV bets on Underdog right now as it sit by all means let’s go and take advantage of that but I always typically like to start out with the good EV bets you know if you guys come in here you guys use those if they are still

Available by the time you are watching it but now let’s go Ahad and get into the Slate breakdown so let’s start out with the first game we got the Heat versus the magic 220 is going to be the over and under five point spread there looking at the injury report we do know

That Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love are going to be out but that is really it looking at the magic Joe Engles is out and Markel folz is out they’re actually getting kind of healthy there the magic now I do think it’s important to note that bam is back and Tyler hero is back

For the heat they had been two players that were out for quite some time and with that when we look at the minutes we see that Tyler herro played 33 so first came back only eight and then literally right back into his typical role so I

Think we can expect him to get the normal minutes and also looking at BAM here he also played his normal minutes after you know seemingly having his minutes Limited in his first game back as well actually no that was his first game back story uh last game so all in

All we kind of know what to expect from the heat worth noting however that Kyle Lowry is going to be back in this game he set out the previous game so definitely some interesting kind of shifts there going on with the Miami Lineup uh looking at the players that

Benefit the most with Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love off the court it’s actually going to be haime hakz there guys he has been someone that has really been a solid player good find for them the question is how much can we trust that because some of that sample size was

When Caleb Martin was not active so what I’m going to do is I’m going to actually go ahead and put Caleb Martin into the on the court projections and I think that is a big thing guys because Caleb Martin you know recently has been playing a lot more now last game not as

Much and maybe that’s maybe there’s something there but all in all we do still see haime hakz as the top minute getter so all in all I feel like we should be pretty comfortable with him as a play uh looking at the players that benefit the most in terms of uh a bump

In production C Lowry gets a 5% bump in usage that’s pretty high averages about 6.9 uh fantasy points per 36 more interesting about six more field goal attempts as well so he’s just going to get a few more shot attempts up with Jimmy Butler off the court that makes

Sense bam is a player that also benefits as well gets about a 3.5 bump in usage about 3.9 more fantasy points per 36 averages about three more points about 1.6 more rebounds everything else basically stays the same but really we haven’t seen this starting unit too much operate together the projected starting

Unit to operate too much because you know whether it’s been ban being out hero being out Caleb Mar being out Jimmy B being out right now Kyle Lowry we just haven’t seen this unit mixed together too much my assumption is that it’ll be HZ uh maybe a little bit of bump to Kyle

Lowry Tyler hero you would expect to have a good usage rate but it is a more difficult matchup fny the best bet that we have currently is actually going to be banned for over 2.5 turnovers which I do find to be a little bit fascinating

You look at at his per 36 production he does actually average 3.2 turnovers per 36 with that Butler and Kevin Love off the court so maybe there’s something there uh Kyle Lowry over points I do think I like uh his per 36 production with uh Jimmy Butler and also Kevin L

Off the court is about 12.2 points and again like maybe he won’t get 36 minutes that that is something that you know obviously we’re going to be concerned about played 32 minutes uh 39 minutes 24 minutes but again it’s tough to really gauge the projected minutes for this one

On I think we can assume he’s going to get around 30 minutes or so if he does that I do think he has a great chance to get over 8.5 points simply because he gets a few more shot attempts up uh from there I would love to get some Hae

Haakas props we’re not getting that currently so let’s go ahead and move on to the magic obviously it’s a 10 game slate today guys don’t want to touch on any spots too much uh looking at the Magic in this game this is definitely going to be an interesting spot for the

Magic uh they got a couple of guards out but really I don’t I don’t see this as a matchup specifically for the magic with the heat that I think we need to be going out of our way to Target uh they have been a little bit more difficult to

Predict maybe with marel folds and also Joel Engles off the Court we could see jayen Suggs get a slight minutes bump but all in all it’s tough to say if that’s going to occur so let’s gohe and move on to the next game we got the

Timber wvs versus the Sixers a three and a half point spread so a game that’s projected to stay close 226 uh for the over and under looking at the injur report nothing too crazy I mean the tomb being out I do think there is some actionable information there and Robert

Covington probably being out as well as well as marus uh Marcus Morris I do think there is some actionable information to go with that if all three of them sit someone like Melton in a close game would probably get the close out minute and if you guys have been

Following along with the Sixers that has kind of been uh something with Melton that we haven’t really been able to trust lately when everyone is healthy and so with patum and you know Covington probably sitting tonight Melton should be able to get closer to 33 minutes rather than the you know capped at

Basically 30 minutes that he has been getting because he should be able to get the final rotation then so I’m not sure if we’re getting any good prop bets for him uh it’s something obviously we’re going to take a peek at right now but if we are that’s something I’d probably

Jump on just having that inherent knowledge there that he should be someone that does benefit now they’re not currently giving us Melton props I do think that that’s something that makes sense again he’s something that should get a Min bump and maybe gets closer to his average points maybe it’s

Closer to his average assist like I do think there’s a bump to be had for him assuming that patum Covington and then also moris is off the court but really as we can see here guys we’re not getting that many good prop bets for Philly everything is pretty much as it

Should be without us getting those melt and props just yet so all in all to me with the embiid Maxi props that we were gting we can just pass up on those so let’s go and take a at Minnesota see if we’re getting any props there tals for

Over points and rebounds all right interesting there guys so the average sports line is favoring the over of 29.3 so basically what that’s telling me is that one of the several sports bsts that we have pulling in data one of them probably has the line set at 28.5 or 29

And they’re probably really heavily favoring the over there all in all though at 29.5 that is a very good bet for us to get over points and rebounds you look at the last time these two teams met up 23 points 11 rebounds so definitely got the over there so I do

Think that that is going to be an encouraging sign for towns and for the most part you know kind of a consistent fantasy producer I will say I do think that there is some correlation here between tals gting is over and Rudy gobear knocking is over I like that just

We have seen that typically they don’t coexist together pretty much so I do kind of like that stack but all in all carony towns over 29.5 for points rebounds is a good so let’s go ahead and move on into the next game probably one of the most interesting games on the

Slate we got the Pacers versus the Hornets about a 10-point spread N9 and a half point spread or so depending on which site you’re looking at uh 248 point4 for the over and under so definitely a good game and speaking of good games guys did anyone jump on the

Zach Collins fantasy score prop yesterday because it was set at 27 and I was I was really shocked at that I know someone commented about uh his assist I’m like yeah well with his fantasy score line that we are getting right now that’s the easy betat there uh he

Crushed I was I was really shocked at that line anyways looking at this game you know this is a high scoring game as well all in all we probably have some stacking opportunities here looking at the Hornets though we got to figure out uh is Mark Williams going to play I

Don’t think he is Gordon Hayward more expected to play but if he sits that’ll be interesting but all in all PJ Washington is probably someone we’re going to be looking at simply because Mark Williams is out uh and also Goran hayward’s out PJ Washington should be

Able to crush I looking at this we need to get news on Jaylen Smith if he is out and Miles Turner’s out that’s going to help us be able to potentially stack this game so let’s go and take a peek at the projected starting lineup Gordon Herod you know he’s expected to play

Looking at right now they have Miles Turner in there but truly a game time decision and guys right now some of the best prop bets that we are currently getting are in this game and so we got miles bridges for over fantasy score uh we can see the average sports with line

Would had this set about 38 and they’ be still favoring the over there the projection data doesn’t like it as much but still about 36.5 for the fantasy score or 36.2 for the projection and then the priz pi line at 36.5 you can see why there’s a slight Edge there and

So looking at guys he has been a little bit I guess inconsistent lately miles Bridges there he was someone that really hit the ground running in his first few games back uh lately been a little bit more hit or miss I will say but the shot attempts are there that’s what we love

And so in this game where you know there’s going to be more easy buckets going against the Pacers um I I do expect him to have a good game I do expect him to get his overs I mean look at the matchups that he’s had Philly

That’s a difficult match up they did get blown out in that game again this is a 10-point spread but all in all I I think the the blowout potential is going to be later on so I like that you know he should be someone that does get us like

36 minutes in this game again he’s going to give us a a lot of shot attempts going to give us some rebounds and so all in all as long as he doesn’t have too many turnovers I I think we’re okay with that you know much easier match up

So I can agree with that one we also have Goron Hayward for over assist at 4.5 again this is if he is active but Goron Hayward again in a game that’s going to be higher scoring he someone that typically averages 4.7 you give him one more in a game that’s higher scoring

Yeah I can get behind that okay you look at the last game against the Pacers didn’t didn’t happen Okay but he had a great night shooting the bass okay and guys just going back to Miles Bridges real quick I don’t I don’t think that this should be something you’re focusing

On too much but his price on DraftKings and for people that aren’t familiar with like DFS this is a very high price okay so like you could sort by position and we can see miles Bridges is one the highest priced player this is basically DraftKings way of saying that they think

He’s going to have a good game in this game against the Pacers so for us to be such a low fantasy score line for him like that salary that they have enlisted at is essentially saying that he should get 40 fantasy points tonight so I do think that’s interesting obviously miles

Bridges for over 6.5 rebounds uh Gordon a fantasy score yeah that’s something I think I’d rather do than the assists really if he is gting five assists in this game guys he probably will get over his fantasy score as well that’s another assist there assists are 1.5 points that

Is something that I do like and for what’s worth I do find it interesting that we’re not getting any Terra roir props he is someone that I do expect to feast in this game and what I mean by that is good prop like for Terry roier

And I’ll just sort by him like we’re not getting any good props I I don’t mind the fantasy score prop line there you know not the best like expected hit rate there at you know only 51.5 but all give him this match up I do think we kind of

Maybe want around with some game stacks and we can see he’s been highly consistent one bad game against Philly game was a blowout we’re not too worried about that I think this game has a great chance to be close I think he has a great chance to continue to play well

Like he has and you look at that game against Toronto only 32 minutes that game was also blowout and so just given the match up with the Pacers I do expect it to stay close enough for long enough like it did in the last time uh the last

Game where these two teams met now I think Lamela ball was active in that game so all in all Terry rir having 37.5 fantasy points in that game is encouraging to to me so yeah I do think honestly roier Hayward and also M bridges over fantasy score I’m okay with

Doing that uh also PJ Washington is someone I do think is going to have a good game I do want to mention him because again like I don’t know when or if we’re going to get this prop but he is someone that with Mark Williams out

Last game he played a ton of minutes 39 minutes in that game really crushed that game was a blowout and I do think he got some partial blowout run but all in all they probably need him to get minutes especially if someone like Nick Richards gets into foul trouble we can expect him

To get 30 minutes in the game and really I do like him better when he is coming in off of the second unit he had himself a pretty good game against the Pacers as well uh honestly I I kind of expect this same sort of uh production out of him

Tonight so now let’s go into the Pacers guys again this is a game that I’m spending a little bit more time on because I do think that it’s going to be an appealing game to really Target so looking at the Pacers I do think that these first three that we are getting

Are fascinating so buddy heal for under fantasy score he is someone that has definitely been inconsistent and so with the data telling us that he’s is also going to probably not have a good game tonight I I I’m pretty encouraged by that guys to me I’m perfectly fine bet

The under there uh and then looking at the next one that we have for the under was Bruce Brown which Bruce brown maybe a little bit more hit or miss obviously buddy heels really dependent on his shot dropping Bruce Brown not exactly that but it is kind of fascinating that in a

Highsc scoring game now granted every Pacers game is going to be high scoring like all these have been it’s kind of fascinating though that they are kind of expecting the under against charlot who I don’t see as the best defensive uh Team so definitely interesting there I

Will say if Miles Turner is active like they’re expecting him to play this line that we are getting on him for Fantasy score seems way too low going against Charlotte which is weird to say because look at these last few games Minnesota 20 fantasy points difficult match up

Don’t get me wrong Washington 20.3 Milwaukee difficult matchup and so it is kind of fascinating but again very good matchup if Jaylen Smith is out he’s probably going to be forced into more minutes he is someone that I expect in a close game to get at least 33 minutes

Now he’s not going to get the heavyish run that he was getting in the inseason tournament but all in all this match up which Charlotte should be won that he feast and I’m actually curious he did not really feast in this match the first time out only 27 minutes in that game so

Kind of interesting there but all in all we can see right there four turnovers though cannot be having four turnovers tonight if he does that he’s not going to get the Over Fence Mark Williams was active in that game though Nick Richard were not as worried about uh just as FY

All right moving into the jazz versus the Cavs uh five point spread here 227 is going to be the over and under uh we do need to get some news here okay so it’s going to be very difficult and I don’t think we’re going to get any props

Just yet Donovan Mitchell currently a game decision Evan Moy out Garland out Ricky Rubio out so uh let’s take a peek at the injury report he is truly a game time decision we’ll go through the process of figuring out who to be on if he’s out uh we see the starting lineup

For Utah guys crazy okay Keon George out Jordan Clarkson out Horton Tucker good start at point guard and if he does that’s going to be intriguing but I do think we’re going to expect Colin suon to continue to play well so I’m fascinated to see which prop lines we’re

Getting for this game or if we are getting any prop lines for this game just yet so for Cleveland we are probably just Jared Alum no okay so they are expecting Donovan Mitchell to play interesting and we’re not getting Jared all that’s also fascinating and just for

What’s worth guys the reason why they are giving us the lines for Mitchell is because if he’s out if he’s active these are going to be his lines if he’s out then the other players prop lines that we are getting would massively go up so he’s like a big mover in terms of

Production for other people so with Mitchell in let’s just go through kind of the production who’s expected to play well and honestly it’s difficult to say I would say like I don’t mind Jared Allen against Utah he someone that has been playing well that game against

Houston five foul don’t love that he got into a foul trouble but all in all he’s someone that I would expect to probably get 10 rebounds where you know obviously we give him six more minutes there probably gets close to that but also some more points you know in this match

Up with Utah with them kind of being banged up the way they are I would kind of expect that and his per 36 production for what’s worth is 15.3 points so about two more points there or so two and a half more points his rebounds per 36

12.2 with Mo and darus Garland off the court so he would be the player that I think we’d want to be looking at and I’m actually curious I’m just want to pull up Underdog to see if we’re getting any prop bets there typically they’re a little bit faster no we’re not okay

Unfortunate there that’s annoying for Jared Allen but yeah we we’ll get into Donovan Mitchell then so Donovan Mitchell per 36 production with just Garland and mo out the court 26.7 points 5.9 rebounds 6.1 assists so this line that we’re getting on him is to me seems

Way too high and we saw that happen last game against Houston where very similar situation he didn’t get his over for points rebounds in say now he did have a good day shooting the basketball 37 points there but the rest of his game was not there and so all I guess I would

Be fine betting the under points rebounds and assists for Donovan Mitchell but all in all I don’t think we need to do that as well so interesting there and then let’s just talk about If he if he sits what do we do it’s going to be difficult to figure out honestly

Craig Porter would be the one that benefits the most we have seen this a few times where you some of these players have been out and he does get minutes probably expect him to get right around 30 minutes we see the sample in there right here where he did get you

Know a decent amount of run his per 36 production is 22 points five rebounds 8.2 assists I just bring that up and three steals for what it’s worth 16 uh field go attempts which is crazy has a 27% usage rate so I’m bringing that all

Up guys because if we get that news I doubt the data if we get some props in him I doubt the data would be properly valuing him for that because it’s a tough data set to come across and so all in all I think he’d be a player that we

Would really want to go in on but that’s probably it let’s go and take a peek at Utah so Utah here guys um again the projected starting lineup we don’t know for sure Colin seon is a player that I do want to be going in on I’m actually

Very curious as to where Colin seon’s FY score prop is going to be we can see based off of his points rebounds and assists that it’ll probably be around 35 or so and I bring that up because he has been someone that I typically will just

Kind of ride the hot hand with players um so like Kobe white I’ve been banking on a lot recently that’s been working out Colin Saxon has been a player I’ve been banking on a lot recently as well uh and he is someone that I expect to

Continue to have a good game with how banged up Utah is especially at the point guard spot they need him to get the run like they don’t want to give Chris Dunn that many minutes that’s pretty apparent so Colin seon is the one player that we can Bank on getting a ton

Of minutes like they blew out Brooklyn in the last game and they got blown out against the Kings he still had 35 minutes in that game shot the ball 17 and 18 times in those games now I do want to caution the free throws we cannot Bank on that 13 free throws that

Is crazy love the free throw percent though that’s great but he hasn’t like he hasn’t had like a good or bad game to the point where you’re like oh here’s here’s some regression or here’s some progression like Curry was a good example of that yesterday like Curry

Yesterday or the previous game had a terrible night shooting so all and on like yeah he’s going to have a really good night shooting tonight night or the the next night because just typical regression progression we haven’t seen that with Colin seon so I think we can

Kind of just Bank on him having a good game so all in all like if we get a good fantasy score line on him again like 35 I think is what it should be I’d be fine betting the over there from there Lori marinin he hasn’t exactly been getting

The minutes that we would want now if this game stays close I do think he’s someone we could potentially be looking at but it’s really with John Collins there he has taken away from Lori Markin in a little bit so really the only player that I really want to go on on is

Going to be Colin sexon but also and also a little bit of Revenge game narrative if you guys buy into that at all going against his former team at in Cleveland as well hon Tucker though if he’s going to be operating out the point guys I am intriguing him tonight and I

Think because of that we’re not getting any fantasy score lines for him because they don’t they don’t really know how to gauge this and personally I’m going to be honest I don’t either if his prop lines that we are getting are close to his average like I would smash the over

If it’s set at 4.5 rebounds probably don’t care for but points as well if his points are set at his average tonight I’d probably want to bet the over if it’s set at 11 I’m betting the over all right so now getting to the Nuggets versus the Raptors four point spread 229

Is going to be the over and under uh looking at it uh the biggest news is going to be Aaron Gordon if he is out really we’re going to see Jamaal Murray and probably Michael Porter Jr step up into a bigger role that’s that’s really

It that’s all we’d be looking at and so I don’t think we’re going to get that many good prop bets we’ll take a peek though yeah Aaron Gordon Michael Port junr under fantasy score again I don’t know if I exactly want to touch these too much but with Jamal Murray back all

In all I could see why the data kind of isane to bet the under there especially for Michael Porter Jr who we can’t project the mans to be there for him we can’t project him to get over 30 minutes and so to me this is going to be one of

The stronger bets for the under fantasy score now if Aaron Goron is out then Michael perter Jr definitely has an increase like Le given his over fantasy score but for now I’m fine B the end there for now I think that’s one of the better bets that we have today and then

From there I do think it’s worth pointing out for Jamal Murray his points rebounds and assists the average sportb line again it’s probably just one that’s causing it to bump up but it’s set 28 points and so at 28.5 there is a slight Edge there all all probably nothing that

We need to go crazy with that’s going into the Raptors so for Toronto Dennis shuder there we got at 27 for Fantasy score all I don’t think we need to touch that ojan jobi I don’t think we need to touch as well like all all these prop

Lines that we were getting I feel like are just correct I don’t see a big Edge there so let’s go ahead and move on into the next game here looking at the next game we got the Knicks versus the Nets uh pretty close game about a two-o

Spread 232 is going to be the over and under looking at the injury report here Mitchell Robinson is out and also Jericho Sims game time decision now Sims is someone that does kind of get some run and so if he’s out Julius Randle someone that I’m still going to be

Interested in even in the matchup against Brooklyn uh noteworthy is Lonnie Walker still being out for Brooklyn but Brooklyn is kind of a interesting Squad because lately Spencer didn’t what he has been someone that has been getting the minutes and has been going off same thing with Cam Thomas now cam Thomas is

A little bit more predicated on his shot hitting and so like if we just sort by fans to score here I think that paints a better picture it’s kind of fascinating to me that we get these lines because it does seem to be that’s like two out of

The three are going to have a good game and like Spencer Dey lately 36 minutes 4 minutes only 23 in that game against Denver that was a blowout he still had a good game uh 35 minutes so like he has been getting the minutes recently this

Is the Spencer Denwood that I thought we were going to see at the start of the Season again look at his uh like salary that is DraftKings way of saying that they kind of expect him to continue to play well now this is a little bit risky

Don’t get me wrong but all in all I think there’s a good chance that he continues to play well and so I don’t mind that over at the same time someone like cam Thomas as well who has a kind of low fantasy score for the amount of

Points he can put up I’m actually interested in that as well it is difficult but if you want to blindly like maybe stack this game knowing that you’re probably going to get two out of the three correct I’m okay with that that to me is I’m saying we don’t need

To really look at this too much because it is a little bit of a guessing game now don’t get me wrong di Woody and cam Thomas did take advantage of slightly easier matchups and tonight’s not going to be as easy but I do find that

Fascinating and I do want to pull up Mel Bridges here as well for his fantasy score he is someone lately that has been struggling and I think that we can see that that probably does go hand inand with Dew he having a good game and also

With Cam Thomas playing well and so that could be the approach that I go with just ride with the players that have been playing well recently cam Thomas Spencer did wi he over fantasy score and then Mel Bridges under fantasy score now let’s go ahead and get into the New York

Knicks again like we’re just not getting that many other good props there for Brooklyn so looking at New York another kind of interesting that we’re going to get is going to be RJ Barrett for under fantasy score not the biggest Edge there but he is very much shot dependent and

This is kind of an easy match up now three for 10 the last game against the Lakers don’t love that and so yeah that’s where his under fantasy score hits he’s not someone that’s going to typically get a lot of blocks Steals and so in a way I think I can get behind

This now it is close and again very much shot dependent I don’t typically like to Target RJ Barrett really at all unless he is coming in off of a poor night shooting I just take a peek at Julius Randle and also Jaylen Brunson those two just have such a high usage rate and

Sure the match up for brunson’s not the best maybe we don’t want to Target him but all in all he’s been playing extremely well lately and so I I will say this I’m not going to bet any unders for him do we need to go over a fantasy

Score probably not though do we need to go over points rebounds and assists probably not now when we look at Julius Randle his fantasy score is probably a little bit too low for the amount of mans’s probably going to get but at the same time we we probably would just be

Fine almost just betting his points rebounds and assists because he is someone that gets a ton of turnovers and so that’s why those two lines are pretty close all right so jumping on to the next game we got the Lakers versus the Bulls so the game the Zack LaVine game

Cuz I do expect him to get trade to the Lakers I don’t know I just do but uh or end up there at some point in the next couple years anyways four points spread 225 for the over and under looking at the Lakers yes they’re all game time

Decisions I think the biggest thing is that Gabe Vincent is not listed as out all in all I think we’re expecting LeBron ad to play as they have been I do think it’s worth pointing out that for the Bulls they are still going to be without Zach LaVine Tory Craig being out

I do think is noteworthy as well Patrick Williams being a game time decision also Alex cruso being a game time decision as well I want to take a peek at thej report here uh so we can see Caruso expected to play Patrick Williams actually expected to play so all in all

Kind of their normal starting lineup my biggest question is do we continue to go back to Kobe white and personally I think that we do so if you guys have been following the channel you’ve been hearing me talk up Kobe white for quite some time over the past like two weeks

Or so well LaVine has been out and he has been produced so this line for 34 for points rebounds and assist is honestly too low still but now it’s starting to get to the point where we have to think about it like before it’s just like okay yeah let’s just continue

To roll because we’re getting a guy that’s playing 40 minutes per night getting you know almost 20 shot attempts up you know 15 to 20 shot attempts up let’s just continue to roll with that over it’s been crushing his assist and crushing his rebounds and this is a good

Example of the data not catching up guys and don’t get me wrong like off nights are going to Ur especially with players like this but when we can take advantage of a player being out where the data hasn’t caught up I like doing that we

Saw with maxi at the start of the Season like they just weren’t pricing him correctly with James Harden off the court that was like a free qu for quite some time that’s exactly what it’s been like with Kobe white and so I’m actually very curious where his fantasy score

Line comes out to be because again if he’s shooting that much if he’s playing that much it’s tough not to like Kobe white tonight and so I’m I’ll tell you right now I might not have him on the you know bet slip or picks for the day

But I am going to bet on him over cuz I’m going to continue to ride with that and to me the match up with the Lakers is not something that we’re too worried about uh from there you know we do see Demar D rozan 5.5 assists that’s

Actually been bumped down on Underdog to five I want to take a peak as to why he has been someone that’s also been playing heavy minutes this game is projected to stay close I guess just because he’s you know basically been shooting a little bit more I don’t know

That one’s interesting I don’t I don’t feel the need to go in on that on that but we see you know recently been getting basically five hasn’t got the over in quite some time I would almost argue he’s due to get the over there V at 34.5 for points rebounds and assists

This somewhat interesting but on all probably don’t need to go in on that looking at the Lakers let’s see if we’re getting PR we’re probably getting ad probably getting LeBron that’s it and that’s what’s happening it’s kind of annoying with them I will say the markets are finally starting to catch up

To like LeBron and AD and kind of what’s going on all in all probably a little bit too thin for those two so let’s go and move on into the next game so looking at the next game we got the Hawks versus the rockets and actually

Kind of a lower scoring game for the Hawks 234 or so uh three-point spread looking at the inro report uh Jaylen Johnson’s still out um and bonovich is really the biggest piece of news if he’s out you know maybe honestly it probably just gives more usage to Murray and to

Trey young if he’s out because bonovich has been shooting a lot so I’m curious he’s more likely to play so all in all probably nothing there and then for Houston they’re pretty much good to go if Tate is out I do think t e going to

Be someone we can look at for a minute uh increase an increase in production looking at the props that we are getting nothing too much just yet uh Jaylen Green’s obviously very much dependent on his points guys but I do find this uh difference to be crazy they’re basically

Saying he’s not he’s not going to get a lot of assist or rebounds which is true I mean we come to know that with Jaylen green but when we look at it he like averages you know 1.3 more rebounds has been having more rebounds recently so I

Don’t know I kind of found that to be interesting you know only a0 five difference maybe there’s something there now Alfred sangon has been someone that hasn’t been doing all too well recently points rebounds and assist wise to me when we saw that line initially I was

Like well that’s that’s way too low but now looking at a little bit more I kind of get it and also I will say Jabari Smith lately has not been gting there and that’s I think that’s directly because e has been playing better and he’s been getting a lot more minutes so

He’s been getting more minutes and I think that’s just into the production for sangon and also Jabari Smith so really I don’t know if we have any Propet here that we can go in on maybe Fred Van Fleet continuing to play well I I don’t think we’re all too worried

About the match up too much as long as he’s getting the minutes like he has those heavy minutes he can certainly have a good game again maybe that’d be the only thing that I would want to look at but because he’s coming in off of good games for Fred then Fleet we’re

Really not getting any good Propet so yeah kind of feels like a stay away for Houston take a peek at Atlanta so for Atlanta again not the best prop pets maybe Murray for over turnovers that’s seemly a good bet uh we do see Trey young for under rebounds and assists

Slightly good EV bet we can already see Underdog has bumped that down so a potential there like those are not terrible but all in all like again probably a little bit too thin all right so two more games left here we got the Clippers versus the Mavericks a higher

Scoring game 237 uh three point spread it is worth noting Paul George game time decision if he sits obviously we’re looking at Kawhi Leonard have a better game we’re looking at James Harden to have a better game I do like the match up against Dallas zubac could continue

To play well looking at the Mavericks they’re going to be without live they’re going to be without Josh Green they’re going to be without Kyrie Irving we have seen that you know pretty consistently though so we should know what to do with that information let’s take a peek at

Dallas yeah so for Dallas I I would have thought we’ been getting some good Propet for Dante aom I think this is a better match up for him going against the Clippers and it really just depends on whether or not you think they’re going to get blown out tonight because

If they’re not exom is someone that should get right around 30 minutes again the point spread on this game is three and so with them having that point spread there I expect him to have a good game so I would say this line that were’re getting on him is pretty too low

For points rebounds and assists now we can see here basically a 50/50 for him so maybe a little bit too thin there Luca over 3.53 uh 53% chance to hit you know if you wanted to bet that one I guess I’d be fine with it I wouldn’t

Talk you out of it looking at the Clippers let’s take a peek here and let’s actually take a peek at the projected lineup to see if Paul George he’s truly a game time decision I don’t know I kind of would expect him to play again if he says Kawhi leer gets a big

Bump James Harden gets a big bump um the fact that we are getting props for kawhai is fascinating and he has been someone that has been playing well and maybe they’re just kind of like his role is not going to change if uh Paul George is off the court but datawise it does

Like he averages 22.5 points per 36 4.7 rebounds so already at 30 there and only 3.6 assists which I do find fascinating now at the start of the year they weren’t all coexisting together pretty well and so maybe that’s part of it good matchup well maybe not the best match up

Interesting so yeah all all probably just a little bit too thin really now he has been getting more mens recently it’s really tough to say what we do there James Harden gets the biggest usage bump gets a bigger bump in points and so that’s probably why kawh Leonard’s role

Is not going to change too much if kawh sits whereas James Harden gets a massive bump in his usage to about 26% and so he’d be the player that would benefit the most and man the Clippers have been going off again I don’t mind zubac going

In this match up against uh Dallas he has been someone that has been playing extremely well and so that I I kind of expect that to continue and now let’s go and get into the last game of the Slate so we got Boston versus the Kings uh two

And a half point spread 23 for the over and under uh porzingis was ruled out yesterday on the front end of back toback I am expecting him to play because of that um if he sits Derrick White is going to be someone I want to roll with um Derek white ended being a

Core playay for me DFS wise and if you guys um play like DFS make sure to be in the Occupy Fantasy Life stream I typically I’m on there at least four times a week um typically and he was one that was talking up he had himself a

Great game that’s not shocking we just have seen that with porzingis off the court that Derek white benefits a ton and and Al Horford as well now we weren’t getting any Alford props and again I expect porzingis to play tonight especially because they are coming in

Off of a overtime game and it’s a back to back do kind of worry about the minutes for the players maybe they get um reduced a little bit but because of that because of the porzingis news it makes sense why we’re not getting any props and then looking at we got sa

Bonis really for points rebounds and assists that’s okay we can see the rebounds prop at 12.5 Underdog has already bumped that surprisingly Underdog a little bit faster today to bump up their props but that’s at 12.5 seemingly a decent one there so real quickly let’s goad and jump into some

College basketball props uh so we can see we got some interesting lines here we got some pretty big edges more than yesterday too let’s start here I find this one interesting Donovan Dent the projection data lik him to get 16 points uh again Underdog has already bumped

This um you know at 14.5 points that it has about a 54% chance to hit that’s seemingly a good EV bet we had um Dennis for under 28.5 fantasy score seemingly an okay one we can see kind of the hit and miss nature that he has had we have

Joel for over his fantasy score at 37.5 the projection dat really likes the over there which to me that’s telling me that they think he’s going to get probably a few more blocks or steals than he typically does and not too many turnovers the average Sports Line would

Have the set at 39.3 and so we look at this he has been someone that has been a high producer for sure and in games where he does get the over he’s seemingly crushing it and so I’m fine betting that over we got uh Donovan cling I always butcher his name Donovan

There he’s another one where you know we’re getting a big in this matchup probably worried about the Min a little bit but all all I don’t mind that we can see the average SPS line would have a set at 3 3.5 and the projection they

Would have at 32.6 and then we got the the last one which is seemingly a really good one uh for under for B 33.5 again a pretty decent line they were’re getting very very much hit or miss with him and I would imagine that it just comes down

To a game being a blow it or not pulling up that game real quick that game is projected to stay close so interesting there and then just looking at the best prop ATS that we are currently getting right now just across the board um bam over turnovers Matthew Stafford now uh

College basketball one let’s take a peek at Edge only this is going to include fanty score I just think it’s a fun way to look at it but also it factors in like discrepancies here like this where the average ports line for pul receiving yard is at 48.5 uh prize picks as said

At 58 so just interesting there shots on goal here John Carlson pretty darn good one basically favored as a push at 2.9 so at 2.5 you should be able to get the over there I like that all right so it’s going into the picks for today uh going

To give out some different kind of bets ups for you guys uh this is more for example purposes like the best bets that we have in this game like datawise miles turnover fantasy score I feel pretty good about miles Bridges as well you know those are two good ones this one I

Personally like Tera rer fantasy score but I’m also including that because of the game stack these were two pretty good data bets as well where the data was say basically if Miles Turner is gonna have a good game buddy heeld and Bruce Brown are not going to have a good

Game and then Goron Hayward I like as well for over his fantasy score this should be a higher scoring game but it’s also going to be a higher scoring game than Charlotte’s used to so all in all if they us is right about this line then I think you know these Charlotte players

We want to be betting the over on now PJ Washington could have a high use and that would really kill and he probably will but that would really kill Hayward Bridges and Terry roir that’s the difficult part you know if I was just to give a four slip bet it would be this

One you know take advantage of that really good college basketball prop that we were getting there uh EV wise and then miles Bridges again this one has about a 54% chance for Stafford to get over 1.5 passing touchdowns and then you know I don’t love this one the best but

The data does the data saying this is the best over fantasy score that we have and it does makees sense going against Charlotte so all in all I’ll agree with it and then lastly I will be just tossing out these ones as well for college basketball just because I feel

Like they’re you know they’re good bets Daya lik them and all in all with college basketball at least it does seem to be a situation which that either the DAT is really right or the day is really wrong now yesterday it was 5050 Sebastian Mack crushes over points Tyler

KCK really crushes over fantasy score then the other two were kind of close but that going to be all for this video thank you guys for watching make sure to give a like And subscribe also hit that notification Bell so you’re not missing on any of the great content or

Great pop hats that pop out throughout the day uh thank you guys for watching if you guys want to access to 95 sports.com price $ che che is available for $10 a month thanks for watching as always let’s keep cashing

7 Comments

  1. I got KD, over on points
    Clint Capela over 25.5 PRA
    Coby White less 22.5 points
    Mike Conley less 20.5 PRA
    Obi Toppin more 16.5 PRA

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