Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat), Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) and Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshwere) break down the entire Week 16 slate, beginning with Chargers/Bills. Will Buffalo run back its James Cook-centric approach? Can Austin Ekeler even be started for the fantasy finals? They also go long on Cowboys/Dolphins, Ravens/49ers, Lions/Vikings and Giants/Eagles, debating the finer points of the Lions’ backfield, the Eagles’ offensive approach, and much more. Along the way they hit on all of the week’s most noteworthy players, including quarterback streaming options and “studs” you have to bench for the biggest week of the year. #nbcsports #nfl #fantasyfootball
Chapters:
(00:00) – Welcome to the show
(4:50) – Bills at Chargers
(12:00) – Bengals at Steelers
(19:30) – Seahawks at Titans
(24:00) – Cowboys at Dolphins
(29:30) – Browns at Texans
(36:50) – Jaguars at Buccaneers
(43:00) – Ravens at 49ers
(46:50) – Colts at Falcons
(54:35) – Raiders at Chiefs
(59:00) – Lions at Vikings
(1:03:50) – Commanders at Jets
(1:07:00) – Packers at Panthers
(1:10:40) – Giants at Eagles
(1:15:00) – Cardinals at Bears
(1:17:30) – Patriots at Broncos
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Week 16 Preview: Bills-Chargers, Ravens-49ers, Lions-Vikings | Rotoworld Football Show (FULL SHOW)
https://www.youtube.com/NFLonNBC
Hello everybody welcome to the roadto world football show I am Patrick Dy joined this Thursday by Mr Denny Carter by Kyle Doric where we are going to break down the entire week 16 slate the fantasy semifinals everything is on the line the holidays games spread out over
Nine days this week yep um there are 14 different broadcast windows for the Christmas week brought to by the National Football League but you know we’re fantasy guys fantasy in BIO you know as we get accused of all Twitter literally of course the only thing we care about ban Robinson Arthur Smith and
I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell people we delve into this situation on the recent most recent Galaxy brains Denny and I were I really get into Arthur Smith’s feed cpat tattoo but we just talk a lot about art and Bean on that and just I don’t know
Like our did we did we talk too much about this this year should we have talked about anything else other than ban Robinson instead of doing 90 minutes on bjan every week yeah I mean as it relates to the Falcons yeah no I don’t want to hear no what are we talk about
Cadl hjj I do I do remember yeah actually yes but uh I I do remember back uh you know in the spring or in the summer you know people would talk about this offense and say look I know Arthur Smith messes around I know that he thinks he’s smarter than everyone and as
Pat says the the system cannot fail it can only be failed but but you take a running back in the top 10 you’re gonna play them and you’re going to G him 20 touches the a game no matter what and that to me never rang true like it
Doesn’t matter like players don’t matter to to a guy like Arthur Smith no they don’t they they they don’t matter at all you know actually we’ll talk about this in a second the Vikings deciding to change their backfield uh uh pecking order is is is a team for for whom
Performance matters and and that that’s exactly the opposite of how the Falcons are operating wow performance hold on I’m just I got I know no one takes notes by hand any where I’ve got a pen I take it performance matters um just take notes on how to win and it just it just
It just really doesn’t that that to Arthur Smith doesn’t hold any water and that’s why ban Robinson by the way he was like benched for that fumble he was okay he was so so so no one is safe No One Is Safe from arthus you know what
The turning point for the Kyle shannan thing was was deciding performance matters was like yeah you know what probably to Target Debo George K and Brandon iuk a lot wasn’t Brandon iuk dogghouse like at the beginning of the season two years ago if I remember correctly may it might have been last
Year maybe it was last year I don’t it was one of the past two years I know it wasn’t this year obviously but like that specific benching and then absolutely Rand auk becoming like a borderline like his own wide receiver his own team’s wide receiver one the transition from
Auk not playing to auk being great was probably the wakeup call this guy needed of like like hey I know at some points you do have to tell players like you can’t be making stupid mistakes but when the alternative is playing a like XFL receiver in his place maybe just a talk
On the sideline and immediately playing him again that message finally clicked and like you said it was specifically the Brandon iuk benching but it was that philosophical change that was the turning point for the 49ers so there’s GNA be more 49ers talk there’s be more bajon talk we’re talk about every week
16 16 game but first a quick word from our sponsor who in this case happens to be us unwrap an early Christmas present this Saturday with an NFL double header it all begins at 3 p.m. Eastern as we take you up to kickoff in Pittsburgh between the Bengals and Steelers on NBC
And peacock then at 7:30 pm Eastern it’s a peacock exclusive matchup as Josh Allen and the bills look to stay in the postseason mix when they travel to Los Angeles to face the Chargers by the way the national broadcast incorporation has also announced the fourth quarter is
Going to be commercial free between the bills and the charges will be very interesting broadcast experiment hopefully the game is still close which brings us of course to Bill’s Chargers it’s the very definition of two teams headed in the opposite direction Denny we will start with the 12-point road
Favorite Buffalo Bills and the question that is on every fantasy manager’s mind was last week a one-off or the beginning of a weekly commitment to Mr James Cook who just totally ran all over the Dallas Cow boys no I you know I I mentioned last week that you James Cook had
Quietly had uh some volume on his side headed into that matchup again against Dallas um I hope folks uh heard heard that and you know played him because wow I mean l literally like a week winner uh 84 Touches for James Cook over the past four games so that’s a lot um
Importantly uh he’s been targeted on 38% of his routes over that span you look to the first half of the Season he was being targeted on like 16 to 18% of his routes uh it’s a it’s just a huge change in I think the way he’s being prioritized
In this Buffalo offense post Ken dorsy he has a good match up I mean look the game script should be wildly on the bills side like it was last week against the Cowboys maybe in a slightly different way but the Chargers are allowing the fourth highest rushing
Success rate since week 12 and Chargers opponents guys are passing at a 52% clip when leading uh over the past month so teams are establishing is what I’m saying against the Chargers I think James Cook is in for another uh at least at least big touchbased day so we get
Into very granular analysis and stats on the show justifiably so it’s where a lot of the good stuff is probably can’t Overlook some of the big things of this game where the Chargers do not have a coach they do not have a quarterback they have zero interest in winning this
Game that is one they don’t have a top receiver they top years past his prime it’s Christmas Saturday they’re making the bills fly literally across the entire country this just feels like a get in get out game AKA feed the ball to the hot running back and hard to
Overthink James Cook I believe for week 16 he won you a week in week 15 and you could do it again in week 16 Kyle uh you know who wasn’t winning weeks last week was Dalton con Kate um in your nomenclature he’s zero balled he has only five catches for like 20 yards
Since Dawson Knox returned two weeks ago we know there are variables there including the really weird game script last week where Josh Allen HS 15 passes but is this how bad is this like is this a blip or is this like our worst fears realized oh yeah Dawson Knox came back
And DT concade is no longer reliable in fantasy it’s probably not as bad as like the fantasy box scores would indicate in the two games with Daw Knox back in the lineup we’re still at a 77% route rate which is not Elite but it’s not terrible
It’s better than it was to start the year and a 17% Target share which for tight ends is still really good is it the peak of Dalton cancade usage probably not his air yard Shar is down a meaningful amount as well like you said
Last week no one got up to a full rout share because they benched all guys at the final 10 minutes of the game or so so I would say I honestly thought it’d be a little bit worse because I like you know I had had some good Dalton conc
Teams I’m like oh we just disappeared and I would say given that he’s running not a full compliment of routes but pretty close to it and seeing still a strong Target share I haven’t ranked as tight end one there was a point where I had him ranked as a top three to four
Tight end I don’t think you can comfortably put him in there but man tight end position is terrible he’s talented and he’s still getting a lot of on Josh Allen’s offense that’s tight end one like top 10 at the minimum it did knock him out of the top five though I
Think 30% dropback rates last week for the bills so I’m gonna guess that that is not going to hold in the long term hopefully not it it is weird I do worry about it holding this week just because week for an extreme run funnel game for the bills to sustain
Technically this would be that week and then next week too it’s the Patriots it’s another like getting so technically it would also be that week although will say they really like to burn it down against the Patriots I think they’ve had several games that one game in Foxboro I
Think they probably ran like maybe 10 total times yeah they they wanted to like end the Patriots uh franchise yeah and they did they did so congratulations to the Buffalo Bills on that Denny on the other side of the ball here not a lot to talk about Keenan Allen not
Practicing Justin Herbert out for the season Josh Palmer is back and maybe putting up pseudo wide receiver three numbers but Austin Eckler he was the fantasy Superstar we know the has gone totally Haywire for him is he even rb2 relevant at this point in this this disastrous offensive environment I
Looked for any reason to say yes that he is rb2 relevant and uh the answer is no uh he had five of 27 running back carries last week against the Raiders I know the game script I know all that but that’s that’s not good and then he ran a
Route on on only 40% of the dropbacks against the Raiders uh had five targets I mean I just I just I can’t see a path it it would be one thing if if he was running all the routes and he could just get so many dump offs from E stick here
That’d be fun that’d be that’d be okay but you know he’s not getting there with the rushing like that that’s that’s a that’s a potential zero honestly and and so you you hope for the PPR but that that’s not there either so I I really do
I’m trying to think of guys Fringe guys who I would start over him um and I’m I’m coming up blank right now but uh Ty Chandler you don’t even think twice start no not even no no no no you got to play Chandler uh single ter you play
Single ter oh for sure for sure I have single ter ranked ahead of Austin I have Austin I believe is the RB 31 I’m pulling up my rank real quick to do a few of these comparisons Denny yeah mean Tai Chandler by the way I play Tai chanler almost over everybody hope that
Goes well you know last week when I was doing my Friday stream and as I as we went on with questions I just just stopped and I said look you’re just playing Tai Chandler it doesn’t matter like you just you get him into your lineup I don’t care what you have to do
You put him in your lineup Ty Chandler is the key to everything Kyle quickly the aformentioned joshh Palmer how live is he in fantasy if at all it certainly seemed to be the Chargers new number one receiver without Keenan Allen in week 15 yeah he led the team or he was second
In the team just there with Quinton Johnson in terms of air yards led the receivers in Target share which sure that makes him the number one receiver but Gerald Everett saw meaningfully more targets than him I mean and he got home exclusively on the one busted coverage
Game they were down 45 trillion so like he’s he’s an alltime if this is week 12 and there’s eight teams on by great streaming option like you’d love to throw him in and and maybe they get another long play to him this is the fantasy semi-finals if you’re in Josh
Palmer territory but hope you have fun in the third fourth place game I should just reminded me I should trade for Josh Palmer in my Dynasty League he’d probably be like my fourth Flex this week uh what if you’re down bad at quarterback and you feel like e stick
Might no no not even remotely was Nick Mullins not available to you yeah no no he was but I got blocked by some monster in my league I would even I’d rather do Taylor hinek than e stick to be honest but I’d be remiss by the way if I didn’t
Shout out one of our twitch comments from Mr Hayden Winks not only just friend of the show he’s former member of the show and he wants he wants to hear more about the Falcons and they 23 team total Hayden just wait your turn in line
We will get to the Falcons in just a minute now it’s the Bengals and Steelers Kyle Jake Browning got away with it yet again in week 16 can he possibly do so as a roughly two-point Road favorite against the Steelers without Jamar Chase and then how high is too high for T
Higgins in the week 16 rankings I’m starting to think Browning can kind of get away with it we’ve talked about how he’s definitely been helped out by yak and he’s had some match up that some matchups that have been advantageous also had like a fun back and forth game last week it was
Against a good defense most importantly all the stats are sort of starting to align on him being good even including the first game that he started it wasn’t really anything special he’s third in EPA per place since he took over the starting job first in cpoe and he’s
Pff’s number one graded quarterback in the past three games like I don’t like this will probably come back to earth in a literal sense it has to he’s not going to be the most efficient quarterback in the NFL but like could he be one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the world I
Would have said there’s almost no chance that’s the case a month ago and now I’m totally down to be like yeah this guy could be like a journeyman Fringe starter who’s probably still running hot so yeah like I think he can probably to some degree keep getting away with it
Maybe some regression hits but I kind of think he’s just he’s solid he’s a good quarterback and that’s good for T Higgins with Jamar chase out that is like top 15 status for me for T Higgins I to say top 20 top 15 feel I mean not
There’s a huge difference there top 15 though it starts to sound more like uh re renegotiating refinancing my mortgage um top 15 for the third time this week too czy bad yeah it’s it’s a great time to redo your mortgage yeah so I hear uh
Jake Browning by the way he got that guy got you passed on me pilled he has just fueled by hatred since the cut him and it’s made him like one of the 10 best oh man I you know I didn’t I didn’t factor that into the analytics last week that
Jake Browning would be so fired up about the previous Vikings regime getting rid of him um but they still wear the the same helmets so you know he so he’s I I should have I should have figured it was a uh it a Revenge Revenge Scene It was
So elaborate his revenge too that he did nothing for three quarters yeah it was elaborate all the quarter yeah he he had made like he had like four fantasy points going into the fourth quarter and he finished as his top five he did he does he did uh Denny part of that he’s
Getting a lot of help from Joe Mixon I didn’t really have a question I just wrote Denny colon Mixon going nuts uh can you tell us about Joe Mixon going absolutely nuts part of me wants to be like yes on to the next one yeah didn’t become fanasy relevant till
Joe burrow got hurt strong but stretch I do think I I have a vague memory of us talking after the Bro injury being like well yeah now I mean this is fantastic for for mix you did I don’t think I agreed they’re just they’re just going
To lean lean on on on mix and and by the way the fantasy football happy hour guys were super bullish on Jake brownie before it was cool and I was on there being like this guy stinks he’s not going to do anything so I just want to
Shout out those guys for saying for being completely right on Jake Browning um Bengals are 4% over they’re expected dropback rate since brownie took over you know that’s pretty pass heavy um what did I miss it’s a spit take out shocking violent spit oh I’m sorry I had
To go off off screen to read some of these stats uh uh running backs have a 20% Target Target share with Browning uh at the do again Pat do it do it one more time do it uh so but obviously Chase Brown is mixing in there a little bit Mixon has
70% of the running back carries over that Browning starting span uh and then this week it’s a it’s a good spot it’s a pretty good spot Pittsburgh is a top 10 run funnel on the season uh opponents have a 56% uh run rate when leading against the
Steelers since week 11 so in other words teams once they get a lead they see no reason to pass it and with Jamar chase out I can see Mixon seeing a whole bunch of touches by the way Denny producer Adams says say his name was Connor Rogers who shouted out Jake Browning on
The fantasy football I should say Connor’s name yeah Connor was you know he was citing Browning’s College stuff and I was like wait he played in college did you have a thought there Kyle PR with the Steelers looked like you had a thought you wanted to add or
Was I misreading Expressions right no Browning’s College stuff was good though he had one season where he was up there in high it was like his second or third season too it wasn’t even his final season he had a good season then he had some other Seasons other things happened
Between the good season and since he started for the Bengals things have happened in there and then while he’s in the NFL nothing happened which is typically what happens for like udfa type guys but if you only look at the one good season this actually checks out
Because it was an incredible season it was a se he had a really really strange college career but Kyle what is the Steelers offensive Outlook with yet another quarterback change canny picket is still out Mitch trabis unsurprisingly totally ineffective even though it was way better than Kenny picket in the Box
Score way more fantasy points than Kenny picket ever produces what’s gonna happen with Mason Rudolph a quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers I mean it’s not good you know supposed doging him George Pickins out there not run blocking and then Jaylen Warren comes out and like I’m I’m not saying I would have run
Blocked for me but that’s literally exactly what I’m saying I would have run blocked in that situation uh yeah this team is like in complete disrepair they’re on their third starting quarterback who I don’t even know if he’s that much worse than the first I think the only thing to do
Here is Deontay Johnson like PPR scam wide receiver three in every game he’s finished except for one he’s had a 20 plus per Target share we’ve talked about this at nauseum every single quarterback which has been a bunch lately who has played for this Steelers team looks at
Deont Johnson’s like that guy needs 10 targets a game and they also don’t even look at George Pickin so he’s the only startable option here you could play Pat pouth if you feel so inclined but honestly I’d play like Tucker craft over him you can never see George pickings
Because there’s always a corner running his route for him too soon an actual good offense he’d probably still be good he would be but you know this this was always gonna happen because I think Pickins has the making of the makings of like not not Elite receiver but a really good
Receiver and so you stick him in the worst offense possible this s thing he’s he’s over it with the slappies which you know I it’s fair but you should also maybe run block and create a touchdown for your team didn’t Deontay do that like a month ago too where just clearly
Gave up on a play they came right to him yeah the Steelers receivers ain’t reading all that like they’re they’re there to catch touchdowns and if they’re not going to do that then then they’re just going to stand with their their hands on their hips do you guys you have
Three seconds do either of you remember who the Steelers third receiver is Alan Robinson Robinson yes Robinson and he’s out there he has not caught a pass since week one I’m making that up maybe maybe making that up the Seattle Seahawks are getting their quarterback back as the Tennessee Titans lose theirs
We think for this 41 and a half total affir in Seattle Denny despite those QB changes we will begin in Seattle’s backfield is the Seahawks is Zack shanet diance over and can Kenneth Walker finally be trusted as a set of forget rb2 again no no I mean it’s he’s he’s gam script
Dependent uh completely so Walker last week against the Eagles had a slight Edge in snaps over shanet uh shbs as the kid kids are calling them uh ran 20 20 pass routes to only 12 for for Walker against Philadelphia so I mean if you think that the Seahawks are going to play from
Ahead here and and there’s there’s reason to believe that then it’s a walker week and if not then it’s not a walker week it’s it’s kind of that simple I will say that teams are really really going run heavy against the Titans when leading I won’t bore you
With the numbers but suffice it to say that there is very little passing when teams get a lead against will Levis not surprising Kyle what can we realistic realistically say in the other Back Field Derrick Henry I think it’s 33 carries for 43 yards over the past two
Weeks still getting the volume not getting the production can we trust him for the fantasy semifinals no absolutely not imagine what Denny said no but more emphatically for this backfield I mean you know we talked about the Steelers it’s just an offense that cannot move the ball cannot get
Light boxes for Derrick Henry and I don’t even think like Derrick Henry’s probably not at the peak of his powers at this point but he’s still pretty good he’s six in PFF rushian grade 17 yards after contact per attempt top 25 in both both the nextg stats he still seems to
Be by every metric either very good or at least Le above average by a considerable amount it just fundamentally doesn’t matter when you’re a two down back on a slow team that cannot move the football it just makes no difference he needs a touchdown to even get into the running back two ranks
And he needs the second one to get into the rb1 ranks because he doesn’t really have a good shot at just a high volume high efficiency day like he used to no matter the circumstance Denny elsewhere in this game DK meaf has gone totally Bonkers over the past three weeks but not really
On an increased Target total did have a lot of targets when Gino played against the Cowboys and we had his best game of the stretch as Drew lock the past two weeks Gino is back against this bad Titans past defense can DK keep this heater going and maybe see a few more
Looks I mean if you know if there is a matchup where you can keep the the heater going it’s definitely this one Tennessee’s uh cornerbacks are just being eaten alive especially in man in man coverage that’s where mchf has really excelled um yeah so you know I
Take no pleasure in saying that DK is converting air yards at a very high rate as of late the first player in NFL history to actually convert air yards no I him Jordan Addison 94% conversion rate last week so that was that was good for
Him um so metf uh is third actually in Target share behind Lockett and jsn over the past three games but he has a comfortable lead in air yards so that means that we’re getting a lot of high variance downfield targets for our guy DK uh that probably changes with with uh
Gino the the Seahawks have been a little you know obviously rightfully hesitant to air it out with with Drew loock sorry Pat Uh for Consulting missou myou our guy wanted it bad not the game-winning TD he wanted the Game ending int real bad he did he tried and instead he got
The game-winning TD he tried uh yeah but so so yeah I think I think DK keeps it going here I guess the targets are a little bit an issue though Target I seriously the past three weeks see like this year I was like man I guess DK MAV
Just wasn’t as good as he seemed like early in his career and then they just started throwing to him and yeah distill instantly Beast modes i t are they ever gonna stop overthinking just getting the good players the ball it is crazy just get throw to them 12 times who care if
You complete four or five of them it’s 130 yards just throw him 12 times stop worrying about fake efficiency and throw to the guy who who looks like a humanoid 12 times yeah yeah he’s like Josh Gordon Prime Josh Gordon if Josh Gordon could
Stay on the field he is he is he is the Dallas Cowboys Miami Dolphins meet up in South Beach for this week’s highest total contest one that’s found itself both under and over 50 Kyle I believe it’s currently under I feel like the key to this game is gonna be the Dolphins
Offense because we don’t like this Dolphins offense when it’s playing from behind things get very difficult for two Tu a Tong of Vala there are we actually going to get a close game and full four full quarters of fantasy goodness this week from Miami and Dallas yeah I mean that’s what Vegas has
And I think one promising thing was last week against a really good Jets defense although you know we’ve talked about this jet having no offense definitely doesn’t do their defense any favors but a really talented Jets defense two was fourth in the NFL and cpoe and six in
EPA per play without Tyreek against a good defense gives me a lot of confidence that even if Tyreek you know comes back but isn’t 100% or God forbid he’s not even back on the field this week the the Dolphins can probably hold up there end of the bar in this being a
Shootout because there was I mean watching them play against against Titans I was like if Tyreek out he’s one he’s made a really good case for his MVP status showing himself out and then the offense not playing very well that wasn’t the case last week we got
Probably a week to prepare as we’ve talked about Pat when midgame injuries happen it’s really hard for a team sometimes to adjust to that give Mike McDaniel a whole week and he will figure it out it’s exactly what he did so with or without Tyreek I think they’ll at
Least hold up their own under the bargain I don’t know if they win the game but they should at least help make it a shootout D on the other side how concerning of a matchup is this for the Cowboys passing attack which taken a little water the past few weeks and
We’ve seen the Miami pass defense just get a little bit better each week Jaylen Ramsey still looks like one of the very best defensive players in the entire league yeah so on the Season Pro Football Focus grades Miami’s uh secondary as the sixth best coverage
Unit in the NFL uh they are allowing the fourth lowest dropback success rate since Jaylen Ramsey came back in a full-time capacity and we as we said on Tuesday’s show Pat we don’t like it we don’t we don’t particularly love this because uh it’s not really creating the
Sort of good fantasy environments that we want for our Dolphins offensive players SOC as as this Dolphins defense has you know stiffened against the pass uh they’ve turned into a bit of a run funnel uh over the past three weeks and it’s not because they’re particularly bad at defending the run it’s just
Because teams are backing away hey all right we get it you’re you’re scary in the back end we’re not going to throw against you uh do I think the Cowboys do that I it it would go against pretty much everything that Mike McCarthy has
Done this year so I I tend to not think that they’re gonna establish it and if they do they’re going to lose this game the lions are the only team in the league that got the memo have a good offense have a not horrible defense but
Not a good defense and let the points flow we we like we like that setup way more than this Dolphins setup where it’s like if if Tyreek doesn’t catch an 80- yard touchdown he’s going to score zero points the Cowboys got a good defense Chiefs got a good defense now the
Dolphins have a good defense the Eagles are struggling on both ends they don’t have a bad defense and also they’re not scoring enough so the the the Eagles the Eagles are are almost there they’ve all they almost fit that formula right because their their defense is garbage but they’re they’re they’re still
Operating as if it’s 2022 and their defense is great and they’re like no we’re not going to change anything this is how we won last year well your defense stinks this year so maybe throw it once in a while they do need a change and Jaylen herz’s sore knee I think has
Been a much bigger issue than we’ve probably been led to believe Kyle we’ve asked about almost everyone in this Dolphins Cowboys game so far except for Devon Anan didn’t quite get home the past two weeks still playing a lot seeing the right amount of touches hasn’t hit that
Big play is the big play going to come and what we hope is this week’s shootout scoring environment yeah since he’s come back the second time now he’s been a little more weapon like per se like we saw early in the season when they were probably still figuring out exactly how
They wanted to use him they were willing to just throw him to the Wolves give him 20 touches and while it worked for Fantasy it just didn’t work for his body frankly and since he’s come back the second time he’s only seen 36% of the team’s carries but he still has over
Half the routes and an 18% Target share including some downfield targets one long throw by two that they couldn’t connect on that makes him one of the highest air yardage running backs so I do think he almost needs the shootout in order to see his best fantasy outcome
Come around because I’m not sure we’ll ever you know at least this season probably shouldn’t ever get back to the point where he’s getting 10 second half carries in a blowout he’s great as a weapon he is a guy who can thrive on a dozen touches per game and for as long
As his body holds up he could do that on 20 but you don’t really need to do that especially when you have Raheem moer who’s been one of the most successful backs this year on top of having aan so not only do I think this is the perfect
Environment for him to do it but I do think it’s one of the only ones you want to bet on him going forward albe you know there’s only a few weeks left in the season all that week 18 against the bills there could be a lot on the line
In that game maybe that’ll be another Devon hn game it will be another Pat KY and Denny game when we return right after this this holiday season get the fantasy fan in your life the exclusive rotor roll draft guide bundle featuring expert analytics player insights and
Season long tools get all three of the draft guides for one low price go to nbcsports.com holiday bundle and use promo code holiday 23 at checkout to receive 25% off in a $10 gift card and don’t forget find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just head
To amazon.com NBC Sports the short-handed Houston Texans host a flocker rific Cleveland Browns is roughly Two and a Half Point home dogs Denny you guys didn’t like Flock horific huh uh the whole nation before before you cut me off before you say it was a horrible joke the whole nation needs to
Know Denny can jolt and Joe which is what I call Joe Flo by the way um can he possibly keep it attempting 40 40 plus passes per game yeah I mean I think the the whole nation is looking toward J and Joe uh I like it I like it this this
Week and uh yeah he’s getting there he’s gonna get there I just want everyone to know uh it doesn’t matter if stoud plays here um to to me no I mean it doesn’t like the Browns are not gonna suddenly just like hand it off 45 times like
They’re just not gonna operate this is not your father’s Browns all right this is air raid jol jolt and Joe Brown Kyle do you not trying to embarrass D Kyle do you know who you know who jolt and Joe was no sounds like he was a 1930s boxer 1930s baseball player Jo
Deio Jo deio J I know Jo deio Jo deio he sounds like a boxer who held his hands like this 100% they all did but he did too he he didn’t wear a glove in the field Knuckles out all right let me I can’t tell that’s a bit or not because
He definitely could have not worn a glove in he had a he wore a we gloves oh okay all right so this game guys this game projects for a lot of plays we talked about this with the Bears Browns last week and honestly that was the only thing that allowed the
Browns to get there for Fantasy purposes was that there were a ton of plays between the be bears and R well we have that again this week and let me tell you why the Texans and the Browns are among the top three teams in offensive plays
Per game this year okay now you say whoa that was with Stout obviously it changed with Keenum here’s the thing it didn’t uh it didn’t the Texans last week had the second most offensive plays in the NFL against the Titans wow okay so we’re gonna get a lot of plays with Keenum
Under Center I think this week and uh you know that means a lot of dropbacks we’re gonna get we’re gonna get tons of dropbacks and and Joe’s Gonna Keep keep uh what is it jol jolon Joe jol Joe de and something very 1930s he eats his lunch in a tree like
He’s like a firefighter saving a cat or something I what they he eats his lunch in a tree is he Robin Hood what do they do in the 30s I don’t know I don’t know they definitely sat on like steel beams way way way above you know sit on steel
Beams I feel I feel like that was bad uh Labor practice yeah I know I feel like OSHA didn’t exist yet they might have cracked they hadn’t done the medical studies on falling you know 5,000 ft we didn’t know yet what kind of effects that would have
On your body we lost we lost another two good men today because of the pean butter and jelly wa you you know that we have a a lunch table down on the street level where they could eat lunch on the Steel Beam with 45 M hour winds whipping
Around New York City need to sit on the beam by the way we this is not a a Q&A show we don’t take questions for the show we have do have a viewer saying jolt and Joe is truly flocker RIS he is he is jolt and Joe jolton Joe Flaco is
The most important player in the entire NFL FL horrific though that in that context has to mean horrific right as opposed to no no it’s good someone pointed out that which team did Flo totally bomb for was it the Broncos Broncos he’s been good for like every
Team since then yeah but by the way Kevin stefansky needs to stop with putting DTR in for like fourth and inches and you know what he did last week it was fourth and inches he took a shotgun snap and he threw it four yards behind the scrimmage and Kem hunt or
Someone had to make an amazing play had to had to dodge three tacklers to gain one yard like like don’t don’t do that just keep Flo in just keep keep the best player on the team in jolton Joe Flaco Kyle the other team the Houston Texans what is their Outlook if niik Collins
Sits again he did not practice Thursday and also why is Dalton Schultz been so quiet amidst the Texans receiver injuries yeah I mean for Schultz his role has grown slightly in terms of targets he got a 15% Target sh share last week and that’s not too much
Different than what he had all season but I will say they’re using him downfield more his air yard share grew substantially last week and I do think that makes more sense when you don’t have these other moderate to downfield options Schultz who when you have a full
Receiver core make shs Evan Ingram you just don’t have to do much else with him when you don’t you do have to go downfield a little bit with him more so I do expect him in a high Pace game in which we saw his role changed for the
Better slightly last week to get home this week anyone have anything to say on these Browns and Texans backfield Devin single ter retook control like very Vivid fashion of the Texans backfield last week and Browns backfield is like looks totally out of gas do either of you have anything to add beyond that
Well the the Browns are eight% above their expected dropback rate since Flo took over so that that’s just destroying any kind of Rush volume well Denny I think it’s like partly too like both factors I think they they just don’t think they have quality touches in their
Back field right now yeah right right and so they’re doing the weird thing where they’re they’re actually leaning on the part of their game their offense that that that works what was the other you said the the Houston Devon single T playing like every snap basically right
He he is playing a lot uh he ran yeah I mean he ran a route on like 65% last week you know and so I’m I’m projecting negative game script here for Houston obviously so maybe he gets there for PPR maybe he gets there for PPR that’s like
Uh we could what’s just say about every maybe I’ll get there I know it’s a Crut it’s a crutch but it’s it’s all I got okay a crutch it’s an accidental indictment of the format that we all know and love it’s not real fantasy no
I’m not wait no no no it is real it is the only it’s the only format I play but that’s because I like to hack the game basically I like the because it’s a game I’m not I’m not an NFL GM man I’m just looking for points that’s all yeah like
We could all play in like EPA EPA only leagues where we’re like trying to ma maximize actual NFL efficiency but like also trying to have fun like we could also just skip the NFL and play chess right like we could play a perfectly deterministic game but like part of the
Fun is that it’s random and like goofy stuff can happen my leagues have 300 yard bonuses for quarterbacks Pat plays in the league where until you get 100 yards in a touchdown we all like that like that’s the game the rules are totally fine in my league that I’m weirdly obsessed with
You are obsessed I’m not at all obsessed with it at all don’t put it in the paper that I’m totally obsessed oh man you guys wouldn’t believe on slack when when when someone eclipses a 100 yards on Pat’s team it is it is a bonanza that’s
What will Lutz bangs out a long 53 yard kick oh my God Pat Los hell yeah brother there is just nothing better when they get that 100 when the 100 yard bonus kicks in I tell Mr Potter to leave you can take that take that back to the bank
Mr Potter and and that’s financially solven thing in I’ve done a better Jimmy Stewart in the past that one wasn’t that good we pledged to be better we pledged to move on to Jaguars bucks waiting for Trevor Lawrence to clear the concussion protocol the Jags head to Tampa for what
Is aming to a pick them Kyle Baker Mayfield just played literally the best game of his career is he qb1 relevant against this awful Jags pass defense why is this total only 42 and a half by yeah I mean it’s probably the Trevor Lawrence side of things I’m guessing the book is
Like this game’s going to suck without Trevor Lawrence because Lawrence has not practice this yet because of concussion as far as I’ve checked but as far as Baker Mayfield goes like you talking about Jake Browning like you kind of have to capitulate on how good he is he’s just playing really good football
Right now there’s another level of that with Baker Mayfield where like his career seemed like pretty much on the outs he was this team’s GS Smith in the way we talked about G Smith going into last year he’s a way to Ferry the team into the top draft pick and that has
Just not been the case he’s been really strong he’s finished as far as fantasy goes QB won six times this year top 15 option nine times so he’s had a really strong floor he’s eighth in EPA per dropback 15th in yards per attempt and he’s just not making the the cataclysmic
Mistakes where he stares down a linebacker and throws a walk-in pick six the mistakes are gone but the efficiency when he’s throwing and not the mistakes is even better so I do think Baker Mayfield maybe not a qb1 if this game has such a meth total if Trevor Lawrence
Doesn’t play but even then in a boring game he probably ranks as like the QB 14 if we think this game has a decent chance of being highs scoring it’s a great match up versus the Jags defense that’s absolutely a reason to throw him into the qb10 slot something like that
Produce to Adam real quick how how high do you think the total creep of Trevor Lawrence actually play it seems like they’re trying to act like he’s gonna he hasn’t practiced yet but they’re he’s making progress he’s gonna play I think he is gonna play too I think he’s yeah
Adam says only go to 44 that’s low as hell why points are gonna be flowing in this game yeah by the way yeah check out the funnel report on on the site on Friday because uh there’s going to be a lot of stuff about the Bucks and Jacks
Sticking with the Jags Denny Calvin Ridley breakdown was Z Jones now joining Christian Kirk on the Shelf Calvin Ridley tilting fantasy managers more than maybe any player in fantasy this year say for Bon Robinson I of course have giant exposure to both of them what what is the outlook for Calvin reallyy
Who is commanding a quote hella targets but not doing a lot them you betrayed Our Generation I think by using that term uh yeah look I I I I remember I actually covered the week one game Jags and Colts and uh when they were throwing to Calvin Ridley like in
The middle of the field and like five yards off the line of scrimmage and that was fun and then it hasn’t happened really since uh you would think that it need that that receiving profile needs to change now that Z Jones is out of out of the picture with the hamstring injury
Removing Z Jones is basically removing 40% of the air yards and 23% of the targets if you look at uh the the Jacksonville receivers post Christian Kirk okay 40% of the air yards okay so so Calvin Ridley is at least here’s what you have going for you Pat he’s at least
In position to see just a ton of volume oh I love I love him my players in position to see it right right so I you know whether he converts that probably not but you know it’s it’s he’s he’s going to be in a in a good spot I will
Say I have a Affinity an for Parker Wasing I knew where you were going with that one I just want to throw him out a deep League your you’re you’re panicking over your flexes whatever you know on your way through the losers bracket after you got knocked out of the
Playoffs in week 10 you’re ready to go I have a lot of teams this is a Buy in the consolation bracket that’s I wait wait I have a lot of teams who are live for a championship that suck that terrible didn’t you DRFT a bunch of zero RB teams shouldn’t your wide receivers
Be the good good part of these teams no they just they’re just miserably bad teams I’m you know you look at uh the app whatever you’re playing on and I’m I’m a I’m a 22% chance to win this week and and I and I have the number one seed like what
What I mean this is the the goed year for your strategy of never drafting good players because none of the good players have been playing consistently that’s true even at tight end Travis Kelce Mark Andrews no good players this year um speaking of Kyle what is going on with Travis etn
Who he early in the year he’s getting a lot of volume but not really he he was getting good fantasy volume but it wasn’t translating real life production then he went on a pretty good real life stretch now he’s on a very poor real life and fantasy stretch for really like
The better part of a month what is going on with Travis etn I will say for this being the poor stretch he’s finished as an rb1 in two of his past three weeks and he’s been an rb2 a bunch of times I mean that’s CU running back scoring
Isn’t great and he’s catching passes that’s also been helpful but it hasn’t been explosions he he had a stretch where he was a top five running back for like almost every game for like six to eight weeks and this is more of like the ceiling is rb10 the floor is 26 and
That’s mostly because they’re losing I believe they’re on a three- game losing streak he averages over yeah he averages over 20 points per game in wins this year and a dozen points per game in losses averaging a dozen points per game in losses is a pretty good floor to have
When you lose and you can still get a you know double digit fantasy points it’s enough to be an rb2 rb2 adjacent sometimes an rb1 but you do need him to be winning to really have these like 28 30 point Fantasy games and to him compile those touchdowns so if you think
They’re going to win this game which seems skeptical at best especially without Trevor Lawrence he’s a great play if you like Vegas don’t see them winning this game you’re still playing him because like I said he’s snuck in I think it’s like RB 11 and 12 so rb1 you
Know little little trick of the trade you can call anyone an rb1 if they get you know 15 fantasy points in the right week but he was doing that in the right weeks so you’re still playing him you just know the outcome is not going to be
The same as when the Jags win third to 15 and he piles up two touchdowns yeah just in a classic adjust your expectations player moving on giving Kyle a real quick break he deals with something known as the sun the Ravens and 49ers meet up in Santa Clara California California California Denny
For what could be the slugfest of the season the 49ers are being granted Unstoppable status as five and a half Sixpoint home favorites it’s not good timing for the Ravens who just lost Keaton Mitchell and have an aing Z flowers if Z sits with this foot injury
Denny which Ravens skill players are we really trusting in this game against this 49ers Colossus I mean I would like to say Odell but you know he’s still not running anything close to a full compliment of routes uh you know we talked about maybe they’re saving him
For the playoffs and I guess that’s going okay uh so you know that I want to say Odell but I I guess I can’t Rashad baitman is kind of a disaster only bad things happen when you throw to baitman Isaiah likely true you know I I feel
Like Isaiah likely you know he had a big week last week um he Lamar seems to very much trust him on On th those uh kind of you know plays where the structure breaks down he has to scramble around uh I really like likely this week against
The Niners we we just saw Trey McBride have a big week against the 49ers so get you got to make sure he’s in your lineup I I know that that probably puts you in an awkward spot but you gota got to do it uh sticking with the Ravens Kyle
Anything really to note without Keaton Mitchell we know nothing’s changed with Gus edwards’s role but anything with Justice Hill I mean no one live beyond Gus Edwards right no that’s it I mean Justice Hill is gonna play a lot of snaps in any game especially one like
This where they probably don’t win and they have to pass more he’s going to run a a lot of routes but he just doesn’t command the same fantasy opportunities targets and long plays that Kat and Mitchell did so maybe in in a sort of technical sense he’s going to to play
The Keat Mitchell role but the role wasn’t that good for Keat and Mitchell it was that Keaton Mitchell was good so no no juice with Justice Hill and like you said I don’t really think it changes much for Gus Edwards if anything really Denny on the other side not many
Questions of the 49ers very narrow everyone’s getting home but Brandon auk very limited volume I think he’s like the 26th most receiver targets over the past three weeks is that limited volume becoming a concern’s deos on this Immaculate heater yeah right uh so yeah like we talked about Debo just crushing
Zone defenses auk is tends to be better against against man uh coverage from what I understand the Ravens kind of are 5050 in that regard um I you you know I mentioned him in the regression files in like week eight or nine and Ju Just to
Emphasize like how H he was running like he was getting his usage was not good at all like air yards targets whatever however you want to break it down it wasn’t good and he was going ballistic with limited opportunity it just it just couldn’t hold up right and so you know
You’re starting them this week I I actually think that the Niners have a are are pretty good bet to go either balanced or run heavy against the Ravens especially if they if they get a lead here Ravens on the other hand I know we just talked about the Ravens but I think
They’re very likely to go past heavy here uh um so I worry about auk again just having having to do a lot with a little so you think the Ravens will go P heav does that mean zlow plays he might actually do something not to be a hater
Still oh you are such a hater it’s actually like I actually just asking G have a good game once that’s all I’m asking I I mean it’s it’s tremendous I want Z flowers to go crazy here just despite you he did return to practice on Thursday so his this the spite is live
No please the spite is live the spite is very live with with Arthur Smith two teams clinging to Dear playoff life the Colts and Falcons Square Off in Atlanta Georgia with the Falcons getting a roughly a point at home Denny Art Smith was basically begging with tears in his
Eyes for Bon Robinson managers to forgive him on Monday he covered up his feed cpat tattoo how much can we really trust Mr Robinson for the fantasy semi-finals you know I feel like I should probably put on clown makeup before I say this but do it I don’t have
I don’t have time to do that um you do you always have time for a bit and yeah well I should have done that beforehand instead of put you have to do clown makeup for the first 40 minutes of the show though just to you asked me to put the Falcons at
The beginning and I forget near the end of the show so I’m just talking with clown makeup on yeah Flo is a good play So yeah so here’s the thing the Colts the Colts are like an extreme run funnel like I I really don’t think that you should be too afraid of Robinson
Here I think that he’s just gonna he’s just going to see a lot of touches I know Kyle you made a point online the other day that uh it seems like Arthur Smith really trusts aler against stacked fronts right and then yeah this was something Josh Norris talked about and I
I just pulled up the PFF data and uh and aler has a 10% Edge for seven and eight man fronts over over Bean in terms of his percentage of his whole carries not awfully surprising in in a way because aler is like a strong power option but even in those circumstances beon was
Just far better the only thing you could really sight beon with he has his fumbles have come against a bunch of stacked or seven and plus man boxes depending on how you find it and algir doesn’t fumble which is you know useful fumbling is bad supposedly but man beon
Is still a lot better against stack fronts because he makes dudes Miss he breaks long runs but he also hasn’t even gotten stuffed as much as as Tyler Alger so it’s clear that that’s what Arthur Smith is doing is he right in doing that it’s the thing we’ve said all season you
Can tell what he’s going to do for the most part the beon heel turn was a bit strange but other than that we know he’s goingon to run the football gonna run a lot of play action and his games are going to be slow and suck the beon was a
Heel turn but he’s predictable just predictably bad so I do want to say for this matchup with the Colts the Colts play uh their base defense at an extremely high rate one of the highest rates in in the league so in other words it seems like a good a good spot for ban
Ban I don’t know why I was thinking of the worst joke in the world someone said something about a mask and then I couldn’t get the phrase no one cared who Arthur Smith was till he put on the Tyler LG mask and though we cared well before
That too we were already mad at him even mad at him by way you mentioned Josh Norris we mentioned Hayden Winks earlier we would be remiss if we said not to check out the underdog football show they are a competitor it’s a very good show very good anal
Uh where was I are we streaming Kyle Garder menu against this Falcons defense and what’s the latest on Michael pitman’s Outlook it certainly seems like he is going to play even after suffering a sickening concussion that earns himone a season long suspension yeah I mean he was limited in
Practice for the first practice of the week which like like I said I was insane he got absolutely destroyed by Damonte KY and then KY like was ejected fined suspended rest of the season and the playoffs and I think his appeal took the playoff part of it out or whatever a
Brutal hit that just somehow I don’t say didn’t phase him I think he missed the rest of the game but a limited practice with the concussion is typically assigned that a player is going to be able to play that week and he’s been absolutely dominating volume I don’t
Know given that like we’ve talked about Jake Browning and Baker Mayfield that Garner mchu quite creeps into like that Fringe qb1 status there are better streaming options but he’s a solid a solid play at least I do think the fact that this game is probably two teams
That want to run the football depending on Jonathan Taylor’s health is Maybe reason to say that this game is one you want to play through uh mostly the running games Michael Pitman was standing because he’s just that good real quick this wasn’t one I was G with
Taylor Hani actually coming back this is maybe like a sneaky shootout potential it’s at 44 and a half so it’s like knocking on the door of being an actual good total is there a chance it’s not run heavy and you know two teams really desperate to win if they start slinging
It around the yard or no it it Arthur Smith was even more run heavy in his two Taylor haki starts they have like something like Nega 10 % pass rate expected on the year which is way lower than anyone else it was4 with hin hiny didn’t finish the second game so the
Data is a bit incomplete but you know I don’t think it matters is what the answer is it was more in those games maybe it’s slightly less but the point is Arthur Smith is who he is and he does what he does every not even every time
He gets the opportunity to do so in the games where he shouldn’t be doing his stuff he does what he does right Arthur we do care who you are you can take off the mask now please please take off the mask didn’t he he mentioned John Taylor apparently we thought he was practicing
In full on Wednesday but they still haven’t declared him game ready yet you might be listening to this podcast and for all we know he’s been ruled out it seems like he’s going to play if he does play is he a plck and play rb1 Zach Moss experiment seems definitively
Over yeah I mean it seems that way Moss is struggling with a with a forearm injury um does he he doesn’t seem likely to play right he doesn’t seem likely to play but even when he has been playing the efficiency is totally cratered the production is totally cratered he does
Seem like he will be sitting this he has he has regressed as the nerds say uh yeah no I mean this is a good spot I I looked at some of the uh dropback rates for Indianapolis when Jonathan Taylor was at full strength even though it was
Very fleeting um you have games with like 12% under their expected dropback rate 9% under their expected dropback rate things of that nature I wrote him up in the uh funnel defense report which you can find tomorrow on the site and uh I I I do see both teams trying to hammer
The run you know unless gamees script goes really haywire here uh I think Taylor would be locked in for for a nice workload you know is the team still gonna try to like manage him I don’t know but um it’s it’s a it’s a good spot for volume the Atlanta defense is not
Necessarily bad at defending the run though it’s to update the injury stuff like you said Taylor is more of like a feel situation but he did practice again in full on Thursday assuming he goes three practice in a row not to be unheard of but like it’s only players on
IR who practice in full and sit out another week he’s not an IR so I it seems I’m waiting to get the rug pole because I I could really use some Taylor so I’m ready for pain it really seems like every sign points to him playing
And Zach Moss was dnp on Thursday which back toback dnps is a pretty bad sign for a player playing so if everything’s normal it should be very predictable that Taylor plays and Moss doesn’t this is a bit more of a feel situation I’ll admit Kyle very quickly you mentioned
Some of the Taylor HEI splits I didn’t realize there were even more run heavy with Taylor hinei yeah how trust Jake London more less indifferent with Taylor hecki Anders Center marginally less mostly indifferent because like I said I I get there were you know I said they
Were more runhe heavy in terms of their pass rate overe expected which was way under I think it’s mostly that they just didn’t change and coincidentally they just had a little bit of variance that struck toward the under Drake London only played one of the two high niiki
Starts he only saw four Targets in that game I mean you’re not playing London this week in the sense of it’s been tough to play him any week if you need to play him though you’ve been playing him and I guess you just keep firing up he’s really talented he has a really
High ceiling but the floor is is like literally one to two catches real great stuff real real great please Arthur take off the mask the Chiefs host the Raiders in a 1M Eastern game on Christmas Day for some reason as two-score favorites Kyle both Isaiah Pacho and Josh Jacobs
Are returning from injury who do we trust more in the fantasy semi-finals and Kyle um sorry you have to blurb this game for the website uh I mean hopefully it’s over quick at least because one team gets beat up third third quarter ends and they’re like let’s kind of get out of
Here you want a lot half runs in this game yeah exactly I want a lot of I want a lot of I assume Pacho runs maybe things go Haywire but I assume they don’t and for that reason I I think you have to trust Pacho more as team is a
10-point favorite against a really bad defense whereas Jacob’s role in like you know a few weeks ago I don’t know what he comes back to but let’s just assume their roles are what they have been throughout the season Jacob’s role is really strong he gives up a few routes
To Amir Abdullah and that’s about it all the carries and a good share of the routes but man it’s hard to trust any running back who is a 10-point underdog on an Aiden O’Connell Le offense on the other hand I get poo is is a little bit
More sensitive to game script but man the game script looks good so you you have to trust poo more even if their roles are slightly skewed in the opposite direction of that the only fear with P would be that he was on some sort of pitch count but they announced him
Early like very early in the week as being ready for this game I think Andy Reid even said he was cleared for last week but they just held him out one more week to be safe which we’ve seen the number of teams do somewhat successfully this year so like you said all signs
Point to him coming back to a relatively normal role Denny then so we talked about the running backs are we still giving Patrick Mahomes top 10 benefit of the doubt at QB I mean I’m ranking as the qb8 this week but yeah it’s very very low for Patrick Mahomes anything
Changing in this Chief’s passing attack uh no I I actually wrote up Mahomes in their regression files if folks want to check that out I’ll just read a little little blurb from that if that’s all right with with you uh guys uh so Mahomes is way under his expected uh
Fantasy output over the past month his touchdown rate over the past four games is 4% uh that’s below his season long rate of 5% and Below his career rate of 6.3% um of course his his uh season season long rain has gone all the way up
To like eight and a half percent so what I’m saying is with the with the he pass heaviness in the red zone no one is pass heavier in the Red Zone than Kansas City and inside the 10 yard line excuse me sorry my phone just fell there’s an
Earthquake in Maryland I apologize I think a text knocked it off uh I I I do I think that this is a spot where momes could you know could see more than hey more than two touchdowns that’s what I’m saying man remember when Pat Mahomes threw three touchdowns yeah I do
Remember I do recall that remember when he do that for half a decade just doesn’t do that anymore it doesn’t happen anymore he actually does do it they just don’t catch it heow you’re right he still throws the touchdowns that’s a good point he literally does throw the touchdowns
Dudes just don’t catch him Mahomes leads all quarterbacks in drop passes that result in interceptions this year and over the past three years well yeah caderas Tony the second one wasn’t quite as bad as the first one this season I I’ve never seen a drop turn into as
Immaculate of a pass result in a pick as that first AR Tony muff setion that was awesome man it was a art piece like one of these strange art pieces you don’t understand but you’re still like that’s beautiful it was a sight to behold real quick Kyle Devonte Adams finally had
Another 100 yard game in week 15 but required the Raiders scoring 63 points against the most pathetic team in the NFL what does they look for Devonte who his floor has been okay just has not been spiking weeks this season yeah like you said I mean he’s still Devonte Adams and if anything
Since Aiden oconnell has come back for his his second core of Duty as the Raider starting quarterback Devonte has been more Devonte a 34% Target share and literally half of the team’s air yards anytime the move the the team moves the ball beyond the line of scrimmage about
Half of them on average are going to Devonte Adams that’s like top three to one receiver status in terms of even fantasy albeit with Aiden o Connell you sort of dock it to still top like six I think he’s still an elite option and the fact that he’s had high floor but no
Spike weaks is is probably just a function of Randomness I still think you should treat him not like you know Rogers Devonte connection but like the most used receiver in the NFL with a functional quarterback ad’s not he not Zack Wilson levels are bad so top six is
Where I’m gonna have him at you can score 63 points they no conell is what we’ve learned that’s true yeah like you can score can you score half that with Zack Wilson they’ve come close but I don’t know if you can I don’t think they
I don’t think they’ve hit 30 all year I don’t think so I don’t think you can the Lions and Vikings meet up with everything on the line from Minnesota Kyle with Alexander Madison trending towards another inactive he was out of practice again on Thursday is Ty
Chandler a plug and play rb1 or is that aspirational by me who may need him quote everywhere or is this Lions defense just too tough to be like truly jamming CH Tai Chandler in Atlanta most people are gonna be playing Tai Chandler does he need to be like forced into your
Lineup no matter what I wish the uh the listeners if you are listening this on the podcast feed quickly pop over to YouTube and see if P miming the the physical jamming like he has a bucket where his lineups are get come on come
On I know I know I know this fits I did it I did it last week I know this fits do it again get him in there you you know pull have someone open the box for you and put him in because last week he
Saw don’t worry I don’t have to jam him in I need him desperately he he he fits quite easily in fact you don’t have to work there’s a lot of space there your lineup has some holes that he could fit in he fits them quite well he saw 82%
Carries with a healthy 12% Target share wouldn’t be surprised if they get behind if his Target share grows in this game I mean he is playing an elite role but he’s actually good as opposed to Alexander Madison who’s had a strong role at times this year but just has not
Been able to capitalize on it so yeah I I mean I don’t think he’s a top six or seven running back but you could tell me eight or seven or maybe six and I’d be like yeah that checks out you were he’s seeing the ball that much and this looks
Like a decent scoring environment like the rb4 14 any push back from Denny or do you just agree with us no yeah I mean I didn’t think that’s enough I think he Jam do a little bit more of the jam and put him in there really get it in there
I mean you you you really yeah you can’t be high enough on Tai channers what that’s music from from your God’s lips to my ears what’s that phrase yeah I think that’s it from my lips to your ears it’s music from God’s Denny to Pat’s Pat because obviously yeah but
Where is my gut where where Denny’s God now we’ve been looking for him all season Denny it worked for one week for Justin Jefferson with Nick Mullins how confident are we in these Vikings pass catchers all getting their looks and this admittedly gorgeous match up with the Lions defense I’m pretty confident I
Mean you know Kevin oconnell said that the reason they made the switch to Nick Mullins is because he is a system knower and he can run the system and Josh dobs was not running the system and so when you when you have a a a coach looking
For that sort of thing Nick Mullins fits fits the bill and folks last week uh Nick Mullins was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL he had a an expected completion rate of 66% his actual completion rate was 82% so really really good stuff from Nick Mullins of course only 6% of his
Attempts were over 20 yards we know what we’re getting we’re getting a lot of intermediate throws a lot of short throws doesn’t have a lot of arm strength I think kind of got away with one to that one touchdown to Jordan Addison was a was a floater some are
Calling it a floater but we don’t care we don’t care because you don’t get docked fantasy points for a floater they still they all count the same well Pat actually does have a league where you get do significant you lose the points for the floaters but most most people no that
LE right and and so in that League Trevor Lawrence is in trouble with the oh stop such a hater I’m sorry I had to uh and and yeah so I actually so I really want Nick in a couple of my down bad down bad fantasy teams this week and I can’t get
Him and I’m quite disappointed because I think that he’s in a very good spot wow really needing Nick M that is down pretty yeah well so when you start you start the season with Anthony Richardson on every redraft team and then you luck into CJ strad then you’re down bad when
CJ you’re down very very very very very bad Kyle who has the higher rank this week jir Gibbs or David Montgomery it’s jir Gibs has on top of his awesome receiving usage more goal line carries more more short down and distance attempts since Dave Montgomery returned to the lineup they’re splitting
Some of that work but the fact is if you can get roughly half of the high value carries and all of the targets for the Back Field you have to rank Gibbs higher I think it’s reasonable to rank them both as an rv1 I have DeMont as a more
Of a mid-range rb2 but since David Montgomery returned they both have produced his top 10 fantasy options in PPR format so yeah you’re playing both of them gives us the better option though yeah that that is the takeaway that you’re playing both of them no matter what sets up quite well for them
In this game the New York Jets are on to Trevor Simeon but the commanders are still stuck in Sam H how Purgatory New York is three-point home favorites Denny I’m assuming we can’t take anything away from Terry McLaren’s brief jacobe peret blowup last week where he looked like
The best receiver in the NFL for the one quarter jacobe veret plate man my my redraft teams were pretty bitter pretty bitter about the just a glimpse into a possible Universe where jacobe brasset had started 10 games this year and Terry McLaren had gone nuclear for Fantasy purposes because brother that’s what
Would have happened because I mean Jobe Brett didn’t even look at anybody else like he I mean I know he threw a touchdown to uh to what’s it Curtis Samuel but like he just he just targeted relentlessly retargeted targeted uh mclen and it doesn’t matter at all for
Next for this coming week doesn’t matter at all mcclaren’s back to like like a like a shaky wide receiver three with Sam how Sam how is quite bad Sam how yeah he’s probably gonna get he might get benched mid game this week again I
Don’t know I don’t it would be I think I you know I’m not just saying this selfishly I I think it would be good to bench him to save his confidence I guess yeah if he’s part of the plans at all going forward he does need a reset he’s totally terrible
Totally totally bottomed out Kyle can we actually start Garrett Wilson and Bree Hall in the fantasy semi-finals I mean they are somehow favorites 36 and a half total Trevor Simeon has not been it in his brief time under center for the Jets what what are we doing with our should
Be fantasy Superstars and Garrett Wilson have Resa yeah I mean I would to say you should temper your expectations but you’ve had to do that in every game except for the first one which we didn’t know who’d be you know who would end up playing in that game more more than not
But like you said they’re favorites in this game and their team total I believe is at 20 points on the dot yes 20 on the dot it’s not good but that’s fine that’s what a functional team looks like it’s it’s above the Jags right now it’s just
Below the all of a sudden good Jake Browning Bengals and it’s really not that far off from teams like the Ravens or or even the Packers so Vegas projects them to be a perfectly fine offense and these are the two players who get the ball on every play in this offense you
Kind of have to play them unless like if you’re not playing them you should also be like going out and betting the commanders essentially and I don’t have that confidence in myself to be like consistently beating Vegas on this kind of take either of you have a take on the
Commander backfield Brian Robinson was back at practice Thursday Antonio Gibson kind of like quasi benched last week a lot of Chris Rodriguez run do we care about any of these Runners for the fantasy semi fantasy simis I mean kind of because the Jets are the most extreme
Run funnel in the league um so I I don’t know I mean if Robinson doesn’t go I kind of think Rodriguez is somewhat interesting I don’t know I mean it’s definitely not Gibson whatever whatever the calculus is it ain’t Gibson no it’s not Gibson and has never been Gibson it
Will never be Gibson probably not someone giving a speech to all of us but what if it’s Gibson we what if it’s Gibson it will never be Antonio Gibson it will never be commanders jets are moving on the Packers are roughly fivepoint favorites for a Panthers Road date that will be
Filled with cheese heads in Charlotte Kyle going be there putting on a cheese head very very transplant local citizen who doesn’t care at all about the Panthers with Chris I said with Christian Watson trending and active he’s now practicing again Kyle Jaden Reed’s also questionable with that like
Very confusing information what is the lay of the land in the Packers receiver rep I think donaven Wix is even on the injury report what is going on with all these Packers receivers yeah Wix is on the injury report he’s practicing but limited with I think a foot or ankle I I
Think it’s ankle that he’s been dealing with for a few games uh it’s it’s really hard to say right now if Christian Watson comes back every time he’s been out there they give him every high value Target both in the end zone and deep targets makes him extremely volatile but
Gives him a great ceiling and Jordan love generally looks better when he’s throwing with Christian Watson on the field the other note I have is that as you mentioned on Tavon Wicks has just been really good this year he leads the team in ESPN’s open score their overall
Wide receiver score and he leads the team in yards for Route run like I know he has little to no pedigree essentially but I do think Wick should even with Watson back maybe this doesn’t happen until next year but should be a more main stay of the three receiver rotation they run
Out Denny Packers backfield AJ Dylan has resumed practicing Aaron Jones like seems fine I guess yeah what’s going on backfield so actually uh lefl came out on Thursday and said we are uh very much aware of Aaron Jones’s workload and how much we’re playing him they gave him eight touch Tes on the
First drive last week and he said you know basically he said well we’re not going to do that again like like we the reason he didn’t really play after that is because that’s a lot of Touches for a guy who’s banged up uh so yeah I mean
Aaron Jones is is uh it’s probably touchdown dependent guy but with with AJ Dylan back in the fold he probably doesn’t see like a ton of inside the 10 work I don’t know th this is an ugly it’s this is a really ugly environment for the Packers this Carolina defense as
We’ve mentioned is actually pretty decent and they they don’t really have any glaring weaknesses where you can say oh well yeah so and so won’t get there but but he will I I don’t I don’t see it here I don’t I don’t see anybody having
Like a huge day for Green Bay and if Dylan comes back you know the Packers are addicted to AJ Dylan they just are they just they have a problem can will not quit him they do have a problem by the way AJ Dylan’s a free agent after
This year and and you know that he’s going to sign with his buddy Aaron Rogers within seconds of gosh curtains for Brea yeah and uh so we have to keep keep tabs on that but yeah Aaron Jones is I don’t know I don’t know lowend rb2 something yeah he’s right there in that
Rb23 borderline this is not a bit there’s just I couldn’t think of anything to say about the Panthers do either of you have anything to say about the Panthers I don’t really I mean J hubard sees the ball a whole hell of a lot but yeah it you can’t even get
Excited about the Vine because they get they going to get any goal line carries and the answer is probably no no you’re hoping he breaks a long one he’s getting a lot of opportunities to do so and he’s good but like you said he’s not actually
Getting a layup at the one yard line he’s getting 20 carries between the 20s I know all I say is funnel funnel funnel but the Packers are a run funnel so there you go there you go it’s chba season according to Denny Carter rb1 overall wonder if you’re getting too
Sleepy for you to even notice that one I am I’m getting a little sleepy myself um the Philadelphia Eagles look to take out their frustrations on the Giants it’s nearly two touchdown home favorites Denny is the long foretold established game script finally gonna happen for the Eagles here they’ve been wanting to
Establish it haven’t been able to do it because they keep losing yeah I mean teams are are really really running at a very high rate against the uh the Giants when they have a lead so if you presume that Tommy DeVito is not going to make this game interesting then uh
Then yeah I mean they’re probably the Eagles are probably going to establish it but their their run game is struggling like like you know you look at EPA numbers success rate everything all the peripheral stuff like they’re just they’re just struggling to how they not have a power back like I ranted
About how did this team not sign a power running back I don’t again they did scratch them every week they did and yeah he apparently he’s not worthy of playing no uh so we’re we’re sad about that with Rashad Penny being on all my best ball teams so do you have teams in
Advance that have him because I only 100% have a team that I’m like dang if Rashad Penny gets an active and plays and a touchdown we’re headed to the next round boys Pete Pete over that I I drafted a baseball team with Pete in the summer and he actually told me uh that
We needed six points from Penny on Monday night uh to advance to the semi-final of the how many did he get I didn’t check but did he get six I haven’t checked yet but he did not get six believe it was z.0 or did he actually play no he definitely didn’t
Play he hasn’t played since 2020 z. zero what what were we saying uh yeah lots lots of running lots of running there you go there you go Denny we’re also sticking I got some weird sequencing issues in my document near the end here uh what’s it looking like
For Devonte and Dallas G behind AJ Brown St has been a foot with these yeah uh over the past two weeks AJ Brown has resumed his like massive dominant role 38% Target share being targeted on 37% of his routes which is really high I mean it’s not that Devonte Smith has
Fallen off the face of the Earth he Devonte Smith has 15 targets to 22 targets for AJ Brown over those two games Dallas scart has mixed in but everything is near the line of scrimmage and that’s fine for PPR we we’re fine with that a little scammy scammy
Situation uh 20% Target share for G uh we saw his routes increase a little bit last week so that’s that’s not bad that’s not bad we can we can go with that we can go with that Kyle do we care about saquan Barkley and Darren waller for the fantasy semi-finals seems like
Even as struggling as the Eagles defense has been it seems hard to trust any Giant in this game environment yeah you are still you are potentially still playing saquon Barkley but like I’m gonna have Tai Chandler ranked over him this week like kind of easily too so and I mean really the
Problem is last week Matt R ran more routs than saquin Barkley they’re even like getting Eric Ray on the field somewhat understandably the season is lost say Quin Barkley believe is an a pending free agent and wants to get that bag don’t don’t make him touch the ball
A lot let him walk into free agency comfortably and get some money and it seems like they’re doing that so no and Darren Waller R kind of the same situation except they will just need him for the next year I don’t know if he’s a free agent or not I assume not but
Either way he’s a 30-some year old veteran who’s been banged up for three to four years it’s a Lost season and they’re scaling up you know scaling up his work slowly let’s say no I don’t think I’m playing either of these guys you you may need to play Barkley you
Certainly do not need to play Waller in really any circumstance that’s a good way to to put if you need to play saquin it’s still a reasonable path like 15 touches but one thing I gotta mention it okay because I found the stat and I didn’t have much to talk about in this
Game so I’ll just mention it Eagles Eagles are allowing the second highest Target share to guys from the slot Darren Waller operating from the slot quite a bit there we go I mean Darren wall right on the borderline of tight end I think I like tight end 14 maybe it
Was 15 I could not get him into the top 12 but he could catch you five or six passes that’d be a good game five or six but it would it’s not like some huge leap of faith to get five catches from Darren Waller the Chicago Bears look to
Rebound from last Sunday’s heartbreaking loss as Healthy Home favorites against the Cardinals Kyle is this a wide receiver one bounceback spot for DJ more after points were left on the field um last Sunday yeah oh boy were they oh boy were they last Justin Fields had more
Points fantasy points lost to drops than any other player in the league obviously because he had a 50-yard touchdown and along Cole K or uh Co not Cole K Robert tanion all players long catch both dropped but this is a great spot for this offense to catch their passes
Hopefully because the Cardinals are 31st in EPA per dropback allowed really really the only reason they don’t give up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks SL wide receivers is that teams haven’t generally needed to throw the ball 40 plus times on them but yeah this is a great efficiency spot and
That’s what DJ Moore excels at then the other side can we even stream Kyler Murray Maris Brown seems like he’s trending towards getting shut down Kyler has not been having a good season passing he is not really getting home with the running stuff no he doesn’t
Feel like a qb1 to me this week that’s for sure no no no he’s not a qb1 I think the only thing he has going for him is that teams have really turned uh toward the pass against Chicago since since the Chicago defense sort of got better uh
After after they acquired uh sweat at the trade deadline uh week 10 since week 10 uh teams are passing a neutral pass rate against the Bears of 66% that leads the entire NFL so could get could see a lot of dropbacks here should be a lot of
Plays between these two teams but I mean it’s it’s this is based on on not on on matchup because the Bears are are solid it’s based on hopefully Kyler gets 40 plus dropbacks here I just this was my classic bit this week I wrote Bears
Backfield LOL I mean oh no this is it’s horrible do we care but it’s situation for sure it’s three guys it’s F I mean Fields Fields would hurt uh this backfield if it were two guys so the three guys don’t mess makes a lot of sense don’t mess with
If someone absolutely has to play a Bears running back is it Roshan after I think it it’s Roshan you regret to inform it is Roshan we regret to inform the next game exists and the game that absolutely no one on planet Earth is asking for least of all me because I
Have to blur bit the New England Patriots have to spend Christmas Eve in quote in power Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver Colorado the Broncos are roughly touchdown favorites Denny Carter what if anything though do we care about in this Patriots offense uh that the Broncos are very generous to
Opposing tight ends and bayy zappy seems to have a thing for Hunter Henry also we talk about the middle of the field the mooff the Zoomers are calling the mooff listen they’ve gota stop they’ve got to stop the Broncos are getting crushed in the MF okay their MF is being destroyed
And uh that that that should be good for for Hunter Henry and for pop Douglas I think both those guys are somewhat interest thing but wo this game is Bleak Bleak big game for pop to crush the off God good God coming from Kyle who lives in the
Town the city in America with the most in abbreviation you can’t even say it on air you definitely can’t say it on air cannot say it on air by the way if I wanted to be taken seriously as a fantasy option uh as Pop Douglas I would
Simply not sound like I was a 1942 receiver for the akan rough necks or whatever pop no one’s been known pop since before the depression so go by the way this Bronco’s Patriots game will give you depression I don’t even know I didn’t even try to get anyone else to do this
Game I felt like I was trying to be a good leader like I’ll do the oh nice night game and then I’ll really stick it to Kyle on Christmas day that was not you he volunteered so thank God he did he is serving his blurb country Kyle so you
Get this the final word on the show what if anything do we care about in this Broncos offense I mean cour Sutton does that thing where Denny has he appeared in regression files a ton and then you kind of stopped I assume you like gave up or something what I’ve been I’ve been
Beaten into submission by courand suton and then and then he he posted a dud last week right he did well I didn’t have him in there last week I mean like he can’t get away with it every week but he has gotten away with it most weeks he
Does see a lot of the team’s End Zone work Targets in the red zone and overall a great share of the high value opportunities it’s he’s outperforming to be fair you know I I think he should score a lot of touchdowns should he score two to five every week we’re you
Know looking into those numbers but you’re absolutely playing him and javon’s had really strong splits in games where his team wins because although he does draw a reasonable reasonable amount of targets they’re early down targets he’s not the third down option he’s not the two-minute drill option so he does really benefit
From positive game script just looks like one of those games really really good stuff from Kyle Doric Denny Carter um we hope we’ve prepared you for the fantasy semifinals um man yeah check out the regression files a lot of great stuff in there check out stardom sitm
Always great stuff from Kyle 32 stats I’m Gonna Keep My rankings updated throughout the holiday weekend we hope you have a wonderful holiday weekend A Merry Christmas um yeah we’re GNA be blurbing it all up the whole team working the holidays um we’re we’re there for you the the the the football consuming
Public we’re there for you we are there for you um so thank you so much for listening all year we will be back next week we will not be here Sunday evening for understandable reasons Christmas Eve night we will not be doing a recap podcast we do apologize it stinks to
Miss the Pod not table for a variety of reasons so we won’t be there but we’ll be back on Tuesday for Kyle for Denny I’m Pat thank you so much for listening we will be back next week
5 Comments
If Buffalo gets out to a big lead by half time I could see Allen, Kyle Allen under center for the second half, sitting Diggs and maybe even Cook in favor of Johnson and maybe some Fournette? Josh Allen ended the Patriots thing with Buffalo when he pitched a perfect game in the Playoffs so that Billy B came into the Bills locker room post game to congratulate Allen. Only 2 Bills possessions didn't end with 6 points those were kneel downs to end the half and the game. As much as I love McDermott what could Dabol have done with this team. AFC Championship Mahomes/Reid v Allen/Dabol
If the Niners win I'm going to rescue a puppy. If the Ravens win, well, it doesn't matter cause they won't. But I'll rescue a puppy either way. Dogs will save the world! Go Niners!
Thanks for sharing with us, much respect! ❤️
Lamar is 19-1 against the NFC. Idk what ppl talking about
Playing against Josh Allen & diggs stack in the semis so hoping they stick with the game script from last week 🤞 Let’s go cook!